WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: Nvidia Earnings, UK Special Election, Modi Israel Visit 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:07.680 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:13.400 This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:15.920 top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:18.599 all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, we 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:21.160 look ahead to the Last of the mag seven earnings 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:25.360 with Chip Giant and video reporting. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:28.240 I'm callin Heppoon, London, where we're delving into the special 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:31.840 election that could redefine the UK's political future. 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:34.760 I'm Doug Prisner, looking ahead to Indian Prime Minister in 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:37.800 Narungramodi's visit to Israel in the coming week. 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:42.400 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:46.120 eleven three zero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:50.879 Bloomberg ninety two to nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:54.520 Syria XM one twenty one, and around the world on 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:57.720 Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:05.160 Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:09.000 program with earnings from AI Chip Giant Invidia, the last 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:11.800 of the Magnificent Seven, reports its end of year results 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:14.959 after the close of training on Wednesday, for more. We're 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:19.479 joined by Kun John Sabhani, senior semiconductor analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:22.360 Great to have you with us on the program, Kun John. 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:25.160 Of course, in Vidia has been at the center of 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:28.520 the AI spending story for so long, so where do 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:31.520 you see the bar when it comes to Invidia's results 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:32.279 this time around? 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:36.600 As usual, the expectations will run high. You know, folks 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:40.479 are expecting the usual or if not better than the 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:43.960 mid single digit beaten race that we have gotten used 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:47.760 to with them, which I think is quite possible given 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:53.160 multiple drivers that have gotten better since their last quarterly earnings. 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:57.120 You know, we have heard from the largest customers of Nvidia, 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:00.920 and most of them have increased their CAPEX projection significantly, 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:04.000 some of them forty to fifty percent in case of 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:06.840 Google and Amazon for twenty twenty six, so that really helps. 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:10.240 We have heard of deals being made since last quarter 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:15.799 with these hyperscalers and other customers adopting millions of units 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:19.520 of in Nvidia, which should drive further upside to that 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:26.160 five hundred billion number that Jensen had provided end of 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:30.919 last year regarding the Blackwell and Rubin backlog through twenty 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:34.080 twenty six. So estimates are running higher than that, and 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:38.119 we expect them to give indications that it is going 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:42.239 to run higher than that. And finally, the third key 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:47.480 point will be visibility on resuming the H too or 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:50.040 I should say starting the H two hundred shipments to 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:54.280 China because that continues. Will be a key upside driver 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:58.239 if that happens soon. And we did see AMD start 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.320 to ship some of its prior to generation chipmates to 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:04.600 China in this quarter when there is a reported results. 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:07.440 Let's take some of those points in turn. John, you 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:10.639 mentioned the millions of units deployed. I think that was 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:13.040 an allusion to the announcement we heard just a few 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:16.600 days ago from Meta Platforms. Does that sort of raise 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:18.440 the bar when it comes to the outlook that we're 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:20.680 expecting to hear from Jensen in the call this week. 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:25.440 It does raise the bar for the full year. I 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:28.400 don't know if it raises the bar for the next quarter. 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:32.760 Outlook that deal with Meta, you know, it's a long 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.520 term deal and the lead times will be longer than 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.040 to get the revenue in this quarter, so does raise 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:39.240 the bar for the full earth. 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:44.080 And when it comes to the pipeline for future chips, 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:48.520 we heard Jensen talk about the Ruben semiconductor being on 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.320 track for the second half of this year at the 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:56.360 recent conference that Nvidia held. Are we expecting any more 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:59.440 clarity when it comes to some of those next generation 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:00.320 chips video. 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:06.040 I'm sure we will hear some commentary that evaluations are 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:09.960 going well, etc. Remember, this was a very unique time. 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:14.320 Usually at CES, Nvidia in the past has not talked 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:18.480 about their next generation products, which are released at the 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.080 end of the year. Usually they saved that for the GtC, 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:24.719 which will be their marquee event happening in March. Them 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:28.599 talking about this this early in the year gives gave 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.919 investors confidence that there would be sort of no hiccups 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.440 with the Rubin ramp as they're aware with Blackwells, So 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:36.919 that's a good news. We'll definitely hear some update, but 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:40.680 I think most of the big news will be saved 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:43.480 for him to talk about at GtC next month. 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:45.760 And when it comes to the re entry of the 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.440 H two hundred ship that you mentioned in China, we've 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:51.520 heard jenst in the past talk about, you know, even 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:54.320 keeping China revenue off the table, they're still going to 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:57.240 put out pretty significant numbers. How important is it though, 0:04:57.520 --> 0:04:59.919 for Nvidia to get back into the Chinese market to 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:01.080 keep its momentum going. 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:07.240 I think it is definitely important. Look, most of the 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.600 other areas they are dominating, so investors are very aware. 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:13.479 So this is a market which if it does open 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:16.560 up significantly for them, they can go and grab another 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:20.320 significant share, a dominant share. Before the shipment sanctions had 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:23.080 come in and Vidia was a dominant share of that market, 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:26.560 So definitely very important. Could easily, you know, if the 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:29.839 gates get open, you can easily think about adding somewhere 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:34.480 between seven to twelve thirteen billion dollars back, which is 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:38.760 a substantial amount. Yes, we'll not move. I mean if 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:40.440 the company is going to about to be making one 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.760 hundred and fifty two hundred billion dollars, you can argue 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:47.800 five to twelve billion is small, but still a significant upside. 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:50.520 Of course, there's been so much discussion within the market 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:53.800 about you know, whether there's too much spending in AI, 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:57.360 whether it's circular spending, and even this AI disruption trade. 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:00.599 How do you expect in Nvidia's results to color some 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:02.280 of that debate on Wall Street? 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:08.760 I don't think. I mean, if anything, a better results 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:12.400 from in media could keep these arguments going forward. I 0:06:12.480 --> 0:06:17.640 don't think better results will will help with diminishing these arguments. 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:20.679 In fact, a week result could slow down this argument, 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:24.880 giving people the more validity that these concents are real. 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:27.320 We don't think these concents are real at this point, 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:30.320 and as long as Nvidia keeps doing better and better, 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:33.120 I don't think these arguments will go away anywhere. 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.520 Appreciate this, Kun John. Ahead of those earnings from Nvidia, 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:40.760 much appreciated, that is, Kun John Sabhani, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:43.920 Semiconductor Analyst. Let's take a look now at some stocks 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:46.200 making news in the week ahead. I'm Nathan Hager, joined 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:50.320 by Bloomberg Markets Live Managing Editor Christine Akino. I thought 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:52.720 we were almost done with earnings, Christine, but it looks 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:55.000 like we got some pretty big names reporting this week, 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:59.560 including Home Depot. On Tuesday was the holiday quarter, a 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:01.760 time people were thinking about home improvement. 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:04.920 Oh well, Nathan, I think from what we've heard from 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:08.799 Home Depot, things are not looking great. They have implemented 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:12.000 a lot of cost custing cutting measures over the last 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.360 couple of months. So this month, for example, the company 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:17.480 said it's making the requirements for bonus payouts to managers 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:20.920 more strict if they're telling eligible employees that they now 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:24.880 have a higher threshold for sales performance metrics to be 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:27.360 able to receive this bonus. And then in January they 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:29.680 also said that they're going to be cutting jobs across 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:33.800 several teams and also requiring corporate staff to return to 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:37.000 the office, and so it really seems like home Depot 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:40.320 is really bracing for a challenging quarter that's probably going 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:43.600 to be reflected in the earnings results that we're going 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:45.800 to be seeing. And so it's just a question of whether, 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:49.040 you know, once investors see them, are they going to 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:51.640 see enough of a silver aligning in those results? You know, 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:54.920 whether it's the cost cutting measures that Home Deep implemented 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.800 or anything else that they're doing that would give them 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.560 a steadier footing moving forward. That's probably going to be 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:02.080 what's in focus for investors next week. 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:04.920 It is interesting though, I mean, we're still off the 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.480 high from September for home Depot, but the stock has 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:10.240 been kind of on a bit of a bounce here 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:11.960 over the last couple of months. So does that mean 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:13.720 the bar is kind of higher for home Depot when 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:14.600 it comes to the earnings. 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:18.160 Yeah, I suppose you could say that just because you know, 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:22.160 it has weathered a lot of storms over the last 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.360 few months. They have been warning for quite some time 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:28.480 now about slow down in housing, which is very much 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:31.360 affecting their bottom line. But at the same time, we 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:34.160 have seen, as you mentioned, a resilience in the shares, 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:38.520 and so perhaps there is some of that optimism baked 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:42.559 in already that the company will be able to keep afloat. 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.160 It's it's you know, it's it's earnings outlook, it's revenue outlook, 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:49.920 and so you know, if there is some disappointment there, 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:54.240 we'll probably see that in the aftermath of the reaction 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:55.280 to the earnings. 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:57.880 Coming Moving from Home Depot, another stock that starts with 0:08:58.200 --> 0:08:59.800 H reports on Tuesday. 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:00.560 HP. 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:05.040 Where are they when it comes to the AI tech story? 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:08.400 Yeah, I mean very interesting when it comes to HP. 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:10.520 Of course, it did get a bit of a boost 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:13.480 when it comes to the AI story, right. It was 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:18.360 very much involved in that trade back in the latter 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:21.120 part of twenty twenty five when it was all about 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:25.920 the expansion of the AI trade to the various companies 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:29.920 involved in implementing the data center build out, and HP 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:32.280 is a part of that supply chain. But you know, 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:37.480 our Analyti Bloomber intelligence really focusing in on margins for 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:40.400 HP here. They are big in the PC space, a 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.480 lot of pressure there when it comes to margins, and 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:46.640 and so that's a big question whether they're going to 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:48.360 be able to. 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:48.520 Keep that up. 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:53.200 Also question about you know, their their memory supply. Is 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:57.520 that supply chain again going to be resilient and moving forward, 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:01.360 And you know, it's a big Q question whether they're 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:04.560 going to be able to maintain pricing power given that 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:07.559 the environment at the moment for anything air related is 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:09.679 a little bit more challenging as we've seen in recent 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:10.200 price action. 0:10:10.640 --> 0:10:13.480 Is that what we're seeing and reflected in terms of 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:16.640 the kind of steady decline that we've been seeing in 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:18.640 hpiece chart over the last few months. 0:10:18.960 --> 0:10:21.640 Yeah, absolutely, Nathan, I mean, I think it is one 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:23.959 of these socks very interesting. You know, it's just kind 0:10:23.960 --> 0:10:28.000 of right in the middle of kind of institutional air demand, 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.679 right given that it is part of the buildout story. 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:34.400 But then at the same time, a lot of fluctuations 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:39.439 due to its spot when it comes to the consumer space, right, 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:42.400 Like it's PC offering still very much subject to the 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.559 whims of the consumer, and as we've been hearing from 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:48.200 a lot of other companies, that is quite a challenge environment. 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:53.680 It's not that consumers are fully scaling back on their purchases, 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:56.559 they're just being more strategic about it. And that may 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:59.760 be where HP's vulnerabilities really maybe. 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:03.960 And on Thursday we hear from one of HP's competitors. 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:05.600 Is it going to be a similar story when it 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:06.959 comes to Dell Computer? 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:09.640 Yeah? I mean for Dell, it really has been a 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:11.920 rough start to twenty twenty six. Right, We've seen their 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:15.120 shares down more than seven percent. They very much did 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:19.720 get wrapped up in the early twenty twenty six declines 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:23.000 for US equities in general, given all these fears about 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:27.760 AI disruption, and you know, for Bloomer Intelligence, their outlook 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:32.560 really focusing in on the AI server demand that Dell 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.280 is enjoying, and so that is a positive for them 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:38.839 and as allow them to have a more broad consumer base. 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:43.560 And you know, our analysts are very much optimistic in 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:47.120 terms of their ability to sustain that momentum through twenty thirty. 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:53.000 So high expectations potentially for this earnings result possibly a 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:55.040 high potential for disappointment as well. 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:59.439 Okay, Well, another busy earnings week on tap. Thanks for this, Christine, 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:04.080 good having your Christina Keino, Managing editor for Bloomberg Markets Live. 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.880 Coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we'll look at 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:10.760 the special election that could redefine the UK's political future. 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:26.240 I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:28.800 day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:31.640 stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:34.360 in Washington. Up later in our program we'll look ahead 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:38.080 to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel. But 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:40.720 first in the coming days, a special election in the 0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:44.880 UK could highlight the fractured state of British politics. Bookmakers 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:47.520 are predicting a three horse race between Labor and the 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.760 insurgents on the right hand left. Gambling odds compiled by 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:53.640 odds Checker suggests the Green Party will edge out Reform, 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:57.040 with the incumbent Labor Party third. For more, let's go 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:01.520 to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe banker Caroline Nathan. 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:05.600 In an unassuming and often neglected Manchester suburb, a three 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:10.040 way fight is hotting up between challenger parties Reform UK 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.360 and the Green Party, who are vying to pry the 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:17.760 area's parliamentary seat away from the incumbent governing Labor Party, 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:21.080 with a special by election looming in Gordon and Denton 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.240 on the twenty sixth of February. The battle is highlighting 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:28.600 the sinking popularity of Prime Minister Kirs Stamer's Labor administration 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:32.240 and the rising fortunes of populist competitors on both the 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:36.760 right and the left. It's an uncertain situation that could 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:41.560 have implications for the UK's politics and economic prospects. Three 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:46.680 Gutchukovin Dan is senior research economists at UK Asset Manager Aberdeen. 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:50.880 She says the instability could prove costly what we're seeing. 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.200 I mean, it's been a good week for bomb markets 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:57.199 in the UK and elsewhere, but there is a lot 0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:59.880 of premium already in the guilt market. 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.599 But I've say a lot of rates investors are cautious. 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:06.320 And I think these key events like the by election 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:11.200 in ten days time, the local elections in May, there 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:14.280 is the acceptance that there could there is likely to 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:18.120 be a leadership change later this year. So obviously we 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:19.800 had a bit of a flash point. Two weeks ago 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:22.560 and Kilts really sold off quite aggressively and that is 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:24.560 an issue for the government. High interest rates are an 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:28.400 issue for the government, so whoever leads the UK later 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:30.600 this year will have to keep that in mind. 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.480 So perhaps a challenge to the Prime Minister Kirs Starmer 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:37.760 Sui Kutchu Govin Dan seeing a research economist at UK 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.880 Asset Manager Aberdeen speak to me and Stephen Cowell on 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:45.640 Bloomberg Radio. So will the coming local contest between the 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:51.280 government and all its challengers leave Starmer vulnerable or vindicated? 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:54.800 Joining me now to discuss is our Bloomberg UK Economy 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:59.120 reporter Arena and Angel and our UK Politics reporter Lucy 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:01.520 White come to both of you. Thank you for being 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.240 with us. Lucy. Should we start with a bit of 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:08.280 the politics. Set the scene. Why is this by election 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.200 so crucial for Keir Starmer? 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.640 So there's not very often in between general elections that 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.560 we get a sort of national vote like this, because 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.040 this isn't you know, your kind of usual local politics 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:22.280 kind of election. This is a by election for a 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.960 seat in Westminster. So it's the first real test that 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:28.520 we're going to have for an area where they are 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:31.760 electing a new person to Westminster, and this is all 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.680 because Andrew gyn has resigned on health grounds, but he 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.200 was also caught up in a bit of a scandal. 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:41.000 He's the labor incumbents at the moment around leaked WhatsApp messages, 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.080 and this is going to be the first real test 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:48.600 we have of who these people in Gorson and Denton 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:52.560 want as their representative. And as you were saying just then, 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.280 you know, there's a real flashpoint at the moment as 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:58.560 to Obviously there's some kind of idiosyncratic reasons why people 0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:01.520 are not a fan of laboring in that area, but 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.280 there's also this kind of real challenge, real tussle going 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:06.680 on between Reform and the Greens at the moment. And 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.760 if this goes badly in for labor in Manchester or 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:13.400 in this particular suburb of Manchester where labor have really 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:17.600 had a sort of strongholder for several years, the implications 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.320 for this nationally are are pretty stark. 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:22.920 We really have polling at the moment, but how much 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.560 ground might labor have lost in this region. Who are 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:28.440 the front runners, So it's. 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.680 Really a three way tie at the moment. We've got 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.480 Labor as the incumbents, and then we've got the Green 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.760 Party who are really hoping to make gains on the 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:40.720 sort of populist left of politics, and Reform who are 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:43.360 at the polar opposite end of that sort of making 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:48.200 looking to make headway on the populist right. And they're 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:50.120 you know, kind of involved in this three way battle. 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:54.200 It's hard to tell who is doing particularly well at 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:56.960 the moment because there's no sort of you know, kind 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.520 of there is. There is polling at a local level, 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:01.680 but none of it, you know, kind of particularly reliable. 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:05.080 The sample sizes just aren't as big. From myself and 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.240 Arena when we were on the ground last week in 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:10.399 the area, there's a huge amount of visibility for the 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:13.359 Green Party. This post is everywhere, there's a lot of 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:18.480 campaigners on the ground. For Reform, there's very little visibility, 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:21.639 but you know, kind of local polling does seem to 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:24.879 see them doing quite well. As for Labor, you know, 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:26.920 there's a lot of people who are kind of well, 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:30.040 I've I've voted labors all my life, so I probably will. 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:32.119 But there's an equal number i'd say that we spoke 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:34.800 to of people that we spoke to there who say 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:37.160 whether it's due to the Andrew growing what's up scandal 0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:39.960 or whether it's due to Kirstarma just saying I will 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:41.520 never vote labor again in my life. 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.199 Arena take us through the economics, then we know that 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:51.840 for a long time, UK wages and incomes really haven't 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:56.440 risen very much. The economy isn't growing very quickly. How 0:17:56.480 --> 0:18:00.159 has that manifested in Manchester and how do resident and 0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:01.400 there I feel about it? 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:04.560 When Lucy and I went up there, I would say 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:06.520 that the top issue that came up in Gordon and 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.800 Denton was at the rising cost of living and you 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.320 know you have that, you also have the rise in 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:13.600 the cost of doing business. 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:16.480 There's also you know, other issues related. 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.240 To flight tipping, decaying states, drug dealing, and you know, 0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:22.760 underneath this you could sense that there is one big issue, 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.600 and that issue is that the community is decaying. 0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:27.639 But things didn't used to be like this, you know. 0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:30.080 So the people of Gordon and Dent and they seem 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.120 to be people who take pride and where they come 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:34.800 from and pride and who they are, and there's a 0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:37.760 sense that that's now been taken away from them. And 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:39.840 who do they blame for this? They blame the government 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.000 and you know labor came in with big promises. There 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:44.840 was real hope that things will change quickly, but they 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:47.959 haven't for you know, many reasons. You know, perhaps some 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:49.960 of the are default of policy. Others are you know, 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.600 are just the result of like structural factors which you 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:57.159 know could never be turned around very quickly. And you know, 0:18:57.280 --> 0:19:01.159 and the local people also blame their previous MP and Gwynn. 0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:03.000 You know, some told us they wrote to him to 0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:05.280 complain but they never heard back. So they feel like 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:08.399 things are not getting better and also that they're getting neglected. 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:11.200 I think that's really interesting. So then what do we 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:16.640 know about the economic profile of those who perhaps are 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:20.760 likely to support the challenge of parties, parties like Reform 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.400 and the Greens. If you say that, underneath it there's 0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:28.640 what sounds like quite a lot of anger, maybe some hopelessness. 0:19:28.600 --> 0:19:33.880 Exactly, and Reforming Green voters are actually very similar in a. 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:35.680 Key way they feel. 0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:37.919 And this is at the national level, not just in 0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:40.040 Gordon and Denton. But it was really interesting to see 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:43.520 it sort of play out there. But these people feel 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.080 somehow cheated on by the sort of by the political 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:47.200 economy of the country. 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:50.800 So look thrill from more in common put this very well. 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:53.240 You know he told me that, you know, you ask 0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:56.399 people is the system working? And the answer tends to 0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.640 be no, Then you ask them, okay, can we change 0:19:59.640 --> 0:20:02.080 the system them from within to make it work or 0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:04.560 do we just burn it all down? And the burn 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:06.520 it all down theres These are the people who either 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:07.720 go to reform or the. 0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:10.840 Greens, you know which one. It depends on who they blame. 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.480 For the Greens, that tends to be capitalism and big 0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:16.719 corporates capturing the economic gains from themselves and leaving everyone 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:17.440 else worse off. 0:20:18.320 --> 0:20:20.119 So you have, you know, young university. 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:25.360 Educated people who are a big demographic for them, and 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:29.080 for reform, it's really blaming immigration and migrants putting a 0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:30.959 strain on public services. 0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:33.800 I'm sure that Labor are putting up a good fight 0:20:33.960 --> 0:20:37.560 and trying to make their case for why perhaps they 0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:40.160 need more time or the progress that they've made so far, 0:20:40.800 --> 0:20:44.760 Lucy in terms of kissed Arma, how much damage could 0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:49.600 it do potentially if Labor were to fail to retain 0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:51.119 this parliamentary seat. 0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:56.159 I think it will be embarrassing for them. But at 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.240 the same time, I'm not sure that people within Labor 0:20:59.240 --> 0:21:01.960 have a huge amount of hope for it going particularly 0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:04.639 well at the moment, I think, you know, it's important 0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:06.919 to realize that this is just one area and that 0:21:07.119 --> 0:21:09.200 you know, I daresay if I were to be Devil's 0:21:09.200 --> 0:21:11.639 advocate for labor, they would say that there are, you know, 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:14.399 some very idiosyncratic issues in this area, for example, the 0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:17.600 WhatsApp scandal that Andrew Grimm was involved in. But at 0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:19.119 the same time, you know, it is going to be 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:21.359 hugely embarrassing for them if they lose in a seat 0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:25.399 where as recently as twenty twenty four they won fifty 0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:30.040 point eight percent of the vote, and even more, it's 0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:32.600 kind of hard to compare because the boundaries were slightly 0:21:32.600 --> 0:21:34.840 different than the general election before that in twenty nineteen, 0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:37.280 but it would have been even higher back then. So 0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:40.840 I think if Labor are to you know, go from 0:21:40.920 --> 0:21:43.680 that level to totally losing the seat, it is a 0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:46.800 kind of really worrying sign for them, because you know, 0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:50.080 if we're to have you know, this pattern repeated across 0:21:50.080 --> 0:21:53.720