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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: We're growing in job spec. I'm sitting at the cash.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway. What's up, everybody? Welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. I am your host, Evan Abrams, and

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Speaker 2: I'm joined as always with these episodes. We did through

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Speaker 2: the draft, we did it through the off season.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: NFL expert Chris Raybond, Chris, what's going on?

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Speaker 3: Man?

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Speaker 2: How are you happy? June?

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Speaker 1: Happy?

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Speaker 2: June?

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Speaker 1: I will say you a little, uh little exhausted.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: We did our back to back four hour pod record marathons.

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Speaker 2: First we did Stucky.

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Speaker 1: I did four hours of win Total, which we're about

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Speaker 1: to talk about, and then me, Carter and Christianmino did

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Speaker 1: like another three hours on going to rounds one through

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Speaker 1: eighteen in drafts, in fantasy drafts. So you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: in peak September form.

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Speaker 2: Let's get to it. Yeah, not just that you've been

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Speaker 2: doing the NBA Finals stuff. Here bouncing all over the

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Speaker 2: place we got us open this week, very busy time

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Speaker 2: for June and sports. But yes, today we are going

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Speaker 2: to talk about NFL win totals. And again you need

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Speaker 2: to check out his best bets and everything they did

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Speaker 2: stuck in Raybon pod that was released in four parts

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Speaker 2: last week NFC and AFC. They go over every team.

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Speaker 2: It's really as much as you can handle across every

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Speaker 2: team and lots of different bets there, so please go

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Speaker 2: check that out. But today me and Raybon we're going

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Speaker 2: to talk about just the top of the class, the

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Speaker 2: highest win totals in the NFL, double digit win totals specifically.

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Speaker 2: And before I toss it to you with more of

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Speaker 2: a question on like philosophy here a little bit, I

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Speaker 2: just want to say kind of why we're doing this.

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Speaker 2: Pot So I put out an article on action on

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Speaker 2: double digit wind totals. I've been doing this the last

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Speaker 2: few years. I became more interested in just this kind

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Speaker 2: of blind blanket method of how to bet, you know,

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Speaker 2: win totals of higher lower. When the seventeen game schedule

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Speaker 2: got released in twenty twenty one, I felt like the

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Speaker 2: change of the extra game kind of you know, created

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Speaker 2: an opportunity potentially, and the interesting and the data is interesting,

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Speaker 2: so we will go over a bunch of that stuff.

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Speaker 2: But that is kind of the why we're doing this.

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Speaker 2: And again, the wind totals to be consistent year to year.

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Speaker 2: I use them from Westgate, so Westgate Superbook and basically

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Speaker 2: obviously there's juice on different sides, but whatever wind total

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Speaker 2: they have posted is the wind total that I've used

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Speaker 2: for this and before and continue this year. So I

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Speaker 2: guess my question Raybund just off the bat before we

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Speaker 2: kind of dive into a few sections and then at

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Speaker 2: the end we're going to go over all eight teams

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Speaker 2: that fall in to this and kind of get Chris's

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Speaker 2: thoughts and a few quirks itself. But Raybond, in terms

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Speaker 2: of the seventeenth game, like in twenty twenty one, adding that,

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Speaker 2: like what is that thought process like for you? What

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Speaker 2: did you what went into that talk about that is

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Speaker 2: just a handicap in general.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So the first thing I did was I just

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Speaker 1: wanted to see, you know, win percentage wise, what would change?

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Speaker 1: And it turns out nothing too much changes. I've actually

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Speaker 1: found that just looking at the data. So if you

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Speaker 1: if you go back, I like to go back to

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Speaker 1: two thousand and two just kind of what I'm working

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Speaker 1: with my bigger data sets, just because that's when the

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Speaker 1: NFL went to thirty two teams. So there is some

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Speaker 1: like across a lot of different futures, there's some comparison there.

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Speaker 1: And I found that over the big long term data,

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Speaker 1: the sweet spot for betting overs is usually on the

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Speaker 1: low side, like it's in the five to six and

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Speaker 1: a half win total range and double digit win totals

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Speaker 1: and generally just everything above that is tends to be.

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Speaker 1: It's it's under nothing in terms of you're just looking

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Speaker 1: for a blanket like plus EV. So the seventeen game

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Speaker 1: schedule didn't change too much for me handicapping it. I

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Speaker 1: think it's just, you know, now you know these five

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Speaker 1: hundred teams, like I like, you know, there's always gonna

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Speaker 1: be an eight and a half, and I think it's, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, back in the day, I think you've got

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Speaker 1: more like flat eights and things like that, Whereas now

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Speaker 1: I think I think it just kind of magnifies that

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Speaker 1: that sweet spot is going to be if you're looking

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Speaker 1: about overs, like in the lower range, because those are

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Speaker 1: the teams kind of swept on and I think it

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Speaker 1: it just kind of makes some of these other teams, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, like nine and a half and up, like

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Speaker 1: you gotta win ten games. I just think it makes

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Speaker 1: it a little harder, honestly. And if you look even

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Speaker 1: even like before they switched to the the seventeen games, like,

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Speaker 1: it's just if you look at double digit win totals

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Speaker 1: with non Tom Brady and like Peyton Manning teams, they're

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Speaker 1: they're they're pretty bad and they stay pretty bad. But

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Speaker 1: I don't know what about you, any thoughts on how

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Speaker 1: that kind of affected your your handicap.

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Speaker 2: I mean, in general, like you said, it's just it's

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Speaker 2: one of a much bigger sample size. I think it

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Speaker 2: probably affected futures a little bit. Just extending the season.

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Speaker 2: I think end of year buys, like I think bye

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Speaker 2: week ends up impacting it a little bit if it's

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Speaker 2: you know, if you have an early buy and you

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Speaker 2: have to go an extra week. Now again, the last

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Speaker 2: week of the regular season doesn't really mean a ton

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Speaker 2: to every team, as a lot of teams are eliminated already,

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Speaker 2: So I think it kind of just extends the schedule

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Speaker 2: a little bit. But let me just what you had something, Oh,

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Speaker 2: I was.

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Speaker 1: Gonna say, I think in general, so there's a couple

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Speaker 1: of things to note, just in general futures. You know,

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Speaker 1: you had the COVID year, you went to seven teams

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, so that you know, that's that that happened.

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Speaker 1: I think the year before we switched to the seventeen

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Speaker 1: game schedule. So that's one. That's one kind of you know,

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Speaker 1: breaking point. And I do think that overall, just as

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Speaker 1: we get a larger data set, maybe more trends will emerge.

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Speaker 1: But I think I've kind of noticed it doesn't directly

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Speaker 1: relate maybe to like how you bet these win tolds,

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Speaker 1: but just something I did notice to kind of pay

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Speaker 1: attention to is teams I think are more than ever

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Speaker 1: are drafting in early rounds, like they're playing there guys

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Speaker 1: Like with this longer season, you can't really afford to

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Speaker 1: drafted guy like remember tight ends. It used to be

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Speaker 1: you know, they take a couple of years to develop,

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Speaker 1: even if they're you know, really talented guys. Now it's like, no,

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Speaker 1: you're getting like a thousand yard seasons out of Rock

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Speaker 1: Bat or even Kyle Pitts because you can't afford that

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Speaker 1: rookie contract for a quarterback, you know, the longer schedule, Like,

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Speaker 1: I think it changed more in terms of how teams

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Speaker 1: operate with the cap and just how teams play guys early.

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Speaker 1: So maybe maybe you see, you know, teams that draft

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Speaker 1: well or something like trends kind of emerging as we

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Speaker 1: get a larger data set. But that's that's more of

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Speaker 1: the kind of overall change I think league wide that

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Speaker 1: that you do notice along with that that kind of

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Speaker 1: coincide a little bit with that.

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Speaker 2: With that seventeen games playing time is interesting from a

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Speaker 2: just like get on the field early point of view.

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Speaker 2: I hadn't really thought about that.

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Speaker 1: But the receivers yet too, Like receivers in general just

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Speaker 1: play right away. You know, there's not as many like

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Speaker 1: second third year breakouts. It's just these guys are getting

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Speaker 1: more reps in school, more spread offense, and then they

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Speaker 1: come to the league. You're getting like you just can't

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Speaker 1: really afford to kind of sit on sit on your

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Speaker 1: hands anymore with these guys.

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Speaker 2: I think it's also I mean we've also turned into

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Speaker 2: what have you done for me lately? Culture? And I

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Speaker 2: think seriously, like you know, you draft somebody and you

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Speaker 2: know you want them to produce, right away because I

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Speaker 2: think it's not only about the player, but it's about

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Speaker 2: the person who picked the player or stood up in

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Speaker 2: the room and said, this was my guy. You know,

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Speaker 2: you don't necessarily love him sitting for a year, or

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Speaker 2: you know, having not as many snaps and reps to

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Speaker 2: kind of show what he's done. But let's just talk

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Speaker 2: about this simply from a top level data point of view,

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Speaker 2: and we can kind of go from there. But double

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Speaker 2: digit wind totals have mostly evened out after about eight

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Speaker 2: years of an outlier leading up to legalization and then

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Speaker 2: three years later the seventeen game schedules. So just some

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Speaker 2: plain data here, So since the seventeen game schedule in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, they are just eighteen and nineteen to

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Speaker 2: the over. But the most important that is double digit

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Speaker 2: win totals. But the more important thing is is they're

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Speaker 2: only going under their win total on average by about

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Speaker 2: zero point one four, so a very very small margin.

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Speaker 2: The thing that's interesting is if you go back seventeen,

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Speaker 2: twenty seventeen to twenty and twenty thirteen to sixteen, taking

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Speaker 2: the same sample sizes, basically the win total had gone

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Speaker 2: under by zero point seventy six and zero point e two,

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Speaker 2: which is a large difference between the zero point one four.

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Speaker 2: So I know we're doing mostly audio here, so I'm

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Speaker 2: trying to be very specific with some of these numbers,

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Speaker 2: but basically these double digit win totals because again we're

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Speaker 2: adding a game to the schedule, there's more at double

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Speaker 2: digit win totals per season by team just because we're

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Speaker 2: expected by more wins because it's an extra week. So

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Speaker 2: I think it's natural to say that the ten ten

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Speaker 2: and a half range is becoming more populated, and like

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Speaker 2: you said earlier, like some of these teams that some

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Speaker 2: books might be nine and a half, But either way,

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Speaker 2: I think you know everybody's wins bumping up one kind

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Speaker 2: of created more double digit win totals. So overall, and

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Speaker 2: then I'll toss it to you, since twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: we've had twelve win totals of eleven wins or more, okay,

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Speaker 2: and they are just four and eight to the over

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Speaker 2: and only one team for each of the four overs,

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Speaker 2: which I think is actually probably the most interesting stat there,

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Speaker 2: which is no team is at a win total that

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Speaker 2: high and done it twice. So twenty four Chiefs, twenty

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Speaker 2: three San Francisco, twenty two Buffalo, and twenty one Tampa

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Speaker 2: Bay are the four teams to go over with that

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Speaker 2: high of a win total. So I think again, where

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Speaker 2: at least recently you're seeing a sweet spot is kind

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Speaker 2: of what you mentioned in that ten ten and a

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Speaker 2: half range. Well, just like you and Kerner and everybody

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Speaker 2: here tends to look at unders like a lot needs

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Speaker 2: to go right for you to hit a double digit

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Speaker 2: win total, especially in the eleven eleven and a half range.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, I'll toss it back to you. I

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Speaker 2: put out a lot there. What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it. The longer season does create more variants,

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, and I mean in a way because

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Speaker 1: it's like you're you're increasing the sample size, but there

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Speaker 1: is more parody, and I think within the season you're

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Speaker 1: you also have to remember that, and that's why I

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Speaker 1: tried to talk about, you know, some of the other

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Speaker 1: changes league wide, like there's been changes in recent in

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Speaker 1: the recent paths that kind of coincide with this. To

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Speaker 1: the injury reserve rules for example, like remember before it

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Speaker 1: was like you you're going into reserve and you're done

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Speaker 1: for the year, and then it became you're going into

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Speaker 1: reserve and you're done, except one guy could come off

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Speaker 1: and then it was now it's like what four games

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Speaker 1: and and and it's like you could get a bunch

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Speaker 1: of guys on and off, and so there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of change roster wise, and and and around that

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Speaker 1: COVID time too, so you know, teams have to kind

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Speaker 1: of manage it more. I think, I think again, I

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Speaker 1: think teams do value getting up there. And you know,

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Speaker 1: like I think tanking actually, you know, is like more

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Speaker 1: viable a little bit now because and it's just stretched

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Speaker 1: out a little more. So you're seeing like there's there

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Speaker 1: could be a couple of bad teams. But uh, I

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Speaker 1: think when it comes to the top of the wind toltals,

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Speaker 1: you're just trying to manage your your season and you

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Speaker 1: don't so you don't always see these dominant, you know,

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Speaker 1: fifteen to one teams. But I just think that's more

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Speaker 1: of a result of parody. I mean, in an Ascuh,

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Speaker 1: it's not surprising that that you don't really have a

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Speaker 1: like a bunch of teams doing it multiple times because

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Speaker 1: you have this kind of tear now right of this

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Speaker 1: big three of my homes and Allen and Lamar and

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Speaker 1: I guess you could put Burrow in there. But it's

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Speaker 1: like you win, you win one win one year, and

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Speaker 1: then there's only one by bye week now like one

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Speaker 1: top seed in the playoffs too, So that also kind

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Speaker 1: of changes how teams are going about trying to get

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Speaker 1: these wins, right, because if you're at the top of

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Speaker 1: the league, it.

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Speaker 2: Used to be you had two bye.

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Speaker 1: Weeks to aim for, you know, a two first round vibes,

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Speaker 1: and now you only have one. So like last year,

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Speaker 1: like the Chiefs were kind of made right, but they

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Speaker 1: somew they just rattled off fifteen wins. So it's like,

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Speaker 1: now if you're Buffalo, all right, we're playing Joe Milton

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Speaker 1: in week seventeen, you know, or what was it we

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Speaker 1: get you were playing Rich Trubisky and gay teen and

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Speaker 1: the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: You know, I don't even know what they were doing.

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Speaker 1: They were out of it and they so they were

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Speaker 1: playing Joe Milton. So it's like you just have these

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Speaker 1: kind of weird kind of quirks, which is why I

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Speaker 1: do think it's you know, you kind of have to

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Speaker 1: like like you're doing breaking it up into Okay, let's

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Speaker 1: look at twenty one to twenty four let's look at

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Speaker 1: further back and kind of compare it, because so much

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Speaker 1: is changing the NFL and over these last couple of years.

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Speaker 2: Since COVID that.

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Speaker 1: But I think that I do think the one playoff

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Speaker 1: seed compared to two probably is having an effect. Obviously

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Speaker 1: would need a larger stample to verify that, but my

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Speaker 1: early leen is that that is having some effect on

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Speaker 1: why you're seeing on the high end, you're seeing it

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Speaker 1: it continue to be tough and maybe even tougher.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, more teams in contention, more teams staying with what

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Speaker 2: they've got, more teams holding on, more teams playing later.

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Speaker 2: Like it kind of makes sense to you know, I

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Speaker 2: guess even out the competition of some sort and make

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Speaker 2: those late games, late season games for those really good

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Speaker 2: teams a little bit harder than they had been. Two

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Speaker 2: things before we move on here that I think are

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Speaker 2: just interesting, and I'll bring up more in a minute.

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Speaker 2: Teams like the Lions who win like fifteen games, go

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Speaker 2: over their win total by a bunch of games, and

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Speaker 2: then what they do the next season I think is interesting.

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Speaker 2: And then I think the inverse, which is like I believe,

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Speaker 2: I believe this is right, but I believe Cincinnati and

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Speaker 2: San Francisco are the two teams with higher win totals

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Speaker 2: than their wins last season, or at least by a margin.

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Speaker 3: There.

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Speaker 2: I think kind of looking back and projecting what this

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Speaker 2: year will be is kind of intriguing there. But Raybon,

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Speaker 2: why don't you tell us a little bit about Underdog? Here?

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Speaker 1: You can choose from things like home runs, strikeouts, total bases,

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Speaker 2: You know them. So once your picks feel good.

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Speaker 1: It's always fun to kind of hit on a home run.

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Speaker 1: Home Runs one of the hardest things I think to predict,

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Speaker 2: Back to the grid ion, we can talk of something

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Speaker 2: we just mentioned, which is kind of pedigree. So you

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Speaker 2: had talked about Tom Brady and talked about Peyton Manning

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Speaker 2: and basically filtering them out of some of this work

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Speaker 2: in win total stuff because again some of the stuff

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Speaker 2: they did there I believe like fifteen three and two

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Speaker 2: to the win total over in his career with Belichick

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Speaker 2: or something stupid like that. So the one way I

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Speaker 2: the one way I decided to look at this, and

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Speaker 2: I'm curious, your thought is how many consecutive years did

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Speaker 2: a team have a double digit win total and did

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Speaker 2: that impact how they performed that year? And now I

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Speaker 2: actually found something a little interesting, which is teams who

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Speaker 2: are in their first year with a double digit win total.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, granted it could have been nine or nine

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Speaker 2: and a half the year before, but either way, they've

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Speaker 2: seen an increase or an expectation in the market. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so since nineteen ninety they are thirty eight percent to

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Speaker 2: the over thirty five, fifty seven and four ninety six teams,

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Speaker 2: and they're going under by about a win. It's zero

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Speaker 2: point nine wins per team. So it's pretty much the

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Speaker 2: most dramatic, the most outlier ish of all the you know,

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Speaker 2: win total streaks you could have as a double digit

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Speaker 2: win total. So I found it kind of predictive in

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Speaker 2: a way in the sense that you know, when people

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Speaker 2: think that this team is going to do something, they

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Speaker 2: you know, not every time do that. And I think

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Speaker 2: that's kind of what you get with a team in

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Speaker 2: its first year, and if they get a double digit

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Speaker 2: win total the next year, that actually bumps up to

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Speaker 2: forty seven percent, which is like a nine to ten

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Speaker 2: percent increase. So just kind of blanketed, which you know,

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Speaker 2: there's obviously a ton of factors here. What's your thought

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Speaker 2: on that exercise, I guess you would call it.

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Speaker 1: So I've noticed that too, And what I also do

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Speaker 1: in my spreadsheet when'm kind of looking at these, I

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Speaker 1: also have their pytagonon wins from the current year the

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Speaker 1: last year, and what you tend to find is teams

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Speaker 1: that kind of overperform. Then the pytagon win total is just,

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Speaker 1: you know, what your win total would have been implied

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Speaker 1: by your point differential, So higher the point differential, it

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Speaker 1: correlates to a certain amount of wins. If you're exactly

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Speaker 1: even it's five hundred, you're expected, you know, five hundred

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Speaker 1: team whatever. So what you tend to find is the

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Speaker 1: best teams and the teams with pedigree. Those teams do

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Speaker 1: reliably overperform their postagona wins.

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Speaker 2: So like.

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Speaker 1: The Bills the Chiefs, they might like last year, for example,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs their Patagona win total was ten point two.

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Speaker 1: They won fifteen games, but Andy Reids also ten and

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Speaker 1: two to the over They do this, this is just

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Speaker 1: what they do, and so the books are using and

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Speaker 1: as they should. You know, when they're setting these win

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Speaker 1: totals for the next year, that's one of the things

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Speaker 1: they're using because like, for example, you know, this year, Minnesota,

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Speaker 1: the Vikings win total it isn't fourteen or you know

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Speaker 1: whatever whatever have many games they won last year.

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Speaker 2: It's eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: And a large part of that is because they overperformed

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Speaker 1: by anyway three wins with that fourteen win season last year.

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Speaker 1: And so you know, the teams that are going to

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Speaker 1: kind of come back to earth, they do it pretty strongly.

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Speaker 1: And you like, you know, the Vikings they I mean,

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Speaker 1: maybe they end up establishing that pedigree under koc, but

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Speaker 1: right now, you know, I don't. I wouldn't say they

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Speaker 1: have it yet. And so you know, teams like that

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Speaker 1: tend to come back. Whereas if you're if you're seeing

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Speaker 1: a team with consistent double digit win totals, it usually

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Speaker 1: means they do have that peedie. Because you know, as

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Speaker 1: as I talked about ch Ducky and I talked about

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Speaker 1: in the Action app Actually when I was kind of

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Speaker 1: put logging from futures is if you go back nine years,

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Speaker 1: nine years, eighteen super Bowl spots, Right, Okay, who made

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl in his eighteen years and he's nine

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Speaker 1: eighteen spots nine.

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Speaker 2: Years, all the good quarterbacks, Tom.

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Speaker 1: Brady, Patrick Mahomes, the Eagles organization, shanahanof events, McVeigh offense

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Speaker 1: in Borough. Just six different six different teams or six

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Speaker 1: different like you could call it teams, you know, Shanahana

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Speaker 1: it was one with Atlanta and two Francisco. McVeigh had

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Speaker 1: two different quarterbacks. But essentially there is there's organizations like

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Speaker 1: the Eagles just tend to do really well. Obviously Howie

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Speaker 1: Rose's been a big part of that. Coaches and then

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Speaker 1: so their pedigree kind of that's what that's what you're

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Speaker 1: really getting here, and and so I think that kind

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Speaker 1: of extends in a way to win totals and now

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Speaker 1: especially with uh, you know, with the with just one buy,

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Speaker 1: it's you know, it kind of just comes down to

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Speaker 1: it could come down to like schedule it, it could come

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Speaker 1: down to buy like early buy. It's like whoever gets

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Speaker 1: off to that early that early run. It's like, and

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Speaker 1: you can run away with it sometimes and no one else,

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Speaker 1: Like for example, the Rams last year, I believe how

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Speaker 1: many games did they actually win?

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Speaker 2: Did they win ten?

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Speaker 1: So yeah, but they.

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Speaker 2: Could have won eleven.

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Speaker 1: But they punted the last week of the season, even

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Speaker 1: though you know they didn't even care about the the seeding.

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Speaker 1: And you're like, so you're you're seeing kind of more

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Speaker 1: of that kind of stuff right where you People gotta

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Speaker 1: kind of be aware of that and and and and

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Speaker 1: what each individual's team's philosophy is gonna be how that

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Speaker 1: schedule sets up at the end. But in general, I

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Speaker 1: think that with that, I think the one that just

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Speaker 1: the one seed is creating some some some some variants.

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Speaker 1: But with the with the repeat stuff, I just think

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Speaker 1: it it's it's about the pedigree of these there there's

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Speaker 1: a certain level of elite teams you see the year

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Speaker 1: after year, and we see it in the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: as well, and and so it's kind of reflective in

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Speaker 1: in these winters where you actually see a higher percentage

436
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 1: going over if you're a repeat, because that just means

437
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 1: you're solidified, like you were able to you know, get

438
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 1: like play play a have a great season and then

439
00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 1: so you're gonna ten wins and up right eleven wins,

440
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 1: and now you're probably getting at least a second place schedule,

441
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 1: if not a first place schedule, because that's another thing.

442
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 1: The hardier schedule, the more games you win, the harder

443
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 1: schedule the next year. So and then you're able to

444
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 1: do it again, it probably means you have a ma

445
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 1: Homes or a Brady or you know what I mean,

446
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 1: like a McVeigh or whoever. So that I think that's

447
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 1: that's kind of what, in my opinion explains that.

448
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 2: I think the easiest from like a data point of

449
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,159
Speaker 2: view to explain it is again, so that team in

450
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: their first cheer double digit win total going under by

451
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 2: zero point nine wins per season. If you just look

452
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: at two and three, so you know, second year and

453
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 2: third year of a double digit win total, it's basically

454
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 2: a difference of a half a win, which is actually

455
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 2: pretty significant in this sense. So completely agree there. I

456
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 2: think we need to just now go over the teams.

457
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 2: So our last step here is there's eight teams, and

458
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 2: again we're using Westgate super Book, which I've used for

459
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 2: this for years now. They have eight teams of the

460
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 2: double digit win total, and they've got four above that

461
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 2: ten and a half mark, which we will start with.

462
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 2: So basically number one here is the Champs with Philly.

463
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 2: Philly is sitting at Since Philly is sitting at eleven

464
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,719
Speaker 2: and a half eleven and a half, it's their fourth

465
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: straight year as eleven and as a double digit win total.

466
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 2: They haven't done that since two thousand and two to

467
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: two thousand and five. Uh So, I guess we know

468
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: what you think. If you've listened to Stucky and Raybauns pods,

469
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 2: you know how you feel about the Eagles. But tell

470
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: people in a sentence or to your thoughts, ah.

471
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,719
Speaker 1: Dude, this is the Nfseast.

472
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can't do it. Don't do it.

473
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 1: It just doesn't happen. So The're like, and honestly, I

474
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: think this could break the streak because I you know,

475
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 1: I like Stucky hates well Cliff Kingsbury and so like,

476
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: I'm like, all right, if you're get a fade Eagles,

477
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 1: you got you got back to Washington, right, like, like

478
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: they're the most likely team. He's like, I'm fading them too,

479
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 1: but I could. I mean, there is a there is

480
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: a good case, there's a fair case to Faid Washington

481
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: as well. I do think that it's gonna end up happening.

482
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: I could see the Eagles winning the NFC Easter, but

483
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 1: like with like a ten with ten games, like I

484
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 1: think it do mainly take ten games even nine. I

485
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 1: do have a lot of respect for what they do

486
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 1: roster wise, but they've lost a lot of talent. So

487
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 1: I'll just I will just let me just say some

488
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:32,959
Speaker 1: names for the Eagles, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay

489
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 1: Oron Burke's Isaiah Rogers, Bryce Hough. I mean, that's a

490
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: lot of talent to lose, and like these guys, if

491
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 1: if you just look at PFF, these guys are all

492
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: right near the top of their positions. I mean Sweat

493
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: thirty six or one nineteen, Williams thirteenth of one hundred

494
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: eighteen interior linement, Darius Slay even in his thirties, number

495
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: twenty three cornerback out of over one hundred, oron Brook's

496
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 1: top five linebacker is AA Rogers, the top twenty five

497
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: corner last year, Bryce Huff right in that Sweat range

498
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 1: thirty eight, So I mean he's got this is some

499
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 1: serious talent. They also again they was there their offensive coordinator.

500
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: Uh And here's the here's the and this is what

501
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: I was talking about where, which is why you gotta

502
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 1: be good to be repeating, because the schedule gets harder.

503
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: Kansas City, Buffalo on the road for the Eagles, Tampa Bay,

504
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 1: the Chargers, Green Bay, Minnesota. If I'm not as high Minnesota,

505
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 1: but that's not an easy matchup. Uh So, just a

506
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 1: ton of just a ton of and then you still

507
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: got a host, Detroit, still got a host, rams Denver, Chicago.

508
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 1: I mean, there's almost no let up, especially if the

509
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 1: Giants uh in Dallas are a little better, which I

510
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 1: think they could be. So just just a tough slate,

511
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: a lot of talent lost. You know, super Bowl champs

512
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 1: actually thirteen to nine and one since the NFL went

513
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: to thirty two games, so they it's been the Super

514
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 1: Bowl loser that has like a much you know, tend

515
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 1: to suffer a little bit more in terms of that.

516
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: And you know that actually just be small sample barriers.

517
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 1: You're still talking about like one a year, so I'm

518
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: not gonna put too much stack into it. Just kind

519
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 1: of a trivia thing, but any what are your thoughts

520
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 1: on it? Egos you think are you with us on

521
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: the fade or you think they do it again because

522
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 1: they still got a strong roster.

523
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 2: To be fair, the roster is strong, but it's different. Right.

524
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 2: You went over all the names, and that was kind

525
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 2: of my point, which is their secondary is basically completely gone.

526
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 2: They've revamped the entire thing, which I can understand. D

527
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 2: Line again, Sweat Graham, huff all gone. So I think

528
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 2: there's just more questions on the defense than there is

529
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 2: the offense, which pretty much looks the same top five

530
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 2: hardest schedules by win totals, and you know a bunch

531
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 2: of other metrics. The only thing is also the end

532
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 2: of the year is tough. Again. You mentioned it at

533
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 2: Green Bay on Monday Night football, Detroit Sunday Night Football,

534
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: at Dallas, Chicago Black Friday at the Chargers Monday Night Football,

535
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 2: and that's right after the buy. So I think it's

536
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: a bit of a difficult stretch. I'm with you on

537
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 2: the under let's keep rolling here. So next would be

538
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 2: Kansas City, So you had mentioned it before. Under Andy Reid,

539
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 2: Chiefs ten and two to their win total over Andy

540
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 2: Reid himself is nineteen six and one to their win

541
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 2: total over with the Chiefs and Eagles. But last four

542
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 2: years they're just two and two, so we've seen a

543
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 2: little bit of hup and a little bit of down.

544
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 2: I mean, I'll toss it to you before I give

545
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 2: you know a few different facts and things like that,

546
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 2: but Chiefs overall thought eleven and a half it would

547
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 2: be under nothing.

548
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: But I'm not in the business of betting against Andy

549
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 1: and Patt, Like, I'm just.

550
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 2: Not doing it.

551
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 1: But like you could, I think the thing to watch

552
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: with them is a couple of things. First nine weeks

553
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 1: a little bit harder, so you could have some opportunity

554
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 1: in season if you're trying to fade the Chiefs or

555
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 1: you're just you want to back them, but you're just

556
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 1: you know, maybe on something like a super Bowl, like

557
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: they host Philly, Baltimore, Detroit, Washington, they go to Buffalo,

558
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 1: they you know, they play charges in Brazil. Those are

559
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: all in the first half of the season and then

560
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 1: the schedule what's up. So like I actually I have,

561
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 1: you know, I want Super Bowl tickets on the Chiefs, Bills,

562
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: and the Ravens in the AFC, And I played the

563
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 1: Chiefs a little less because I'm kind of expecting to

564
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: get a retter price when they lose some games in

565
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: your end season. But I mean, come on, this team

566
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: had a they were a ten win team last year

567
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 1: and they still won fifteen games. Yeah, hey, yeah, I

568
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: got it, man, Like I'm not. I like unders like

569
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 1: I like being contrarian, but there's certain things I just

570
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 1: don't do. Fade and Pat Andy's on it on what

571
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: about you.

572
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm in the same, but I just can't do it.

573
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 2: I can't click the button. I won't click the button.

574
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 2: I just can't do it. I'm starting to like the

575
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,239
Speaker 2: Simmons picket line more as I look into it. So

576
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: I do think, you know, tuning to the Bears to

577
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 2: get Rashid Rice back, Like I'm trying to look at

578
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: the roster to see any difference. I think they still

579
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,479
Speaker 2: still a huge question market running back. I know they're

580
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: trying out Elijah Mitchell there, but Red Smith, Yeah, that's

581
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: the guy. That's that's the guy.

582
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 1: I mean. It reminds me of Checo, like seventh round pick,

583
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 1: like fourth on the depth chart, but like you can

584
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: see a path and he and he just gives them

585
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: some juice. I mean, and these days it's like these

586
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 1: you know, smaller guys that maybe aren't the greatest in

587
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: past protection. That's another thing. I think, you know, with

588
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 1: the way the cap has changed, and the way that

589
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: the schedule has changed and and the IR rules have changed,

590
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: I think I think speed is another thing that's getting

591
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: on the field, and I think he does bring some

592
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: of that, so he's not watching for But I agree.

593
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: I think you mentioned the running game, and I would

594
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: say that extends to the line because it could still

595
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: be bad. I mean, you're talking about you gotta have

596
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: Simmons win one of the jobs. Uh, and you'd ideally

597
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: like Javin Moore, who you also paid a ton of money,

598
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: win the other job so that you could just get

599
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: Juan Taylor the heck out of here and his you know,

600
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: lining up as a slot receiver every damn possession. And

601
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 1: then uh but on top of that, like your your

602
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 1: bust of a draft pick Kings, we sew a matiaya. Uh,

603
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 1: he has to win the last guard job. And Andy

604
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: Reid didn't like. He's like, oh, yeah, we like what

605
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: he did, but really that's it's it's not a voter confidence.

606
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: He's like, hey, he's competing with Caliendo. Remember Caliendo. I

607
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: mean he might as well put Frank calliendo. Uh that

608
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 1: left card for all that, Like he was terrible last year,

609
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 1: so it could be bad for Kansas City. And the

610
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 1: line is is the one is the thing that that

611
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: can slow him down, so that that is kind of

612
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: something to watch and uh they I mean, especially when

613
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: you don't have a run game, it's gonna be tough

614
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: over a longer season. So uh they maybe they do

615
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: end up punting a game here and there just because

616
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: so I would go under. But man, it's uh, it's

617
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 1: it's tough. But eleven, I mean they're at eleven and

618
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 1: a half or did you say or ten and nine?

619
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: Eleven and a half. Yeah, that's that's egregious. Yeahs a

620
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: little high. Uh, it's a little high for them. But

621
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 2: again eight primetime games, which people have talked about as

622
00:30:59,440 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 2: a record.

623
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 3: Uh.

624
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 2: The thing that I looks at, you know, you got

625
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 2: to look at this more than anything is Andy Reid

626
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: twenty two and four straight up in September since twenty

627
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 2: seventeen eighteen. You look at the same numbers from a

628
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: home so that start of your schedule is absolutely brutal.

629
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: But it's the Chiefs. So we'll kind of see what

630
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 2: they do there. And then the stat which you kind

631
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 2: of mentioned before, but it's definitely worth just repeating last

632
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 2: fourteen AFC Championship games either Mahomes or Brady, the last

633
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 2: one without either so long ago. The Jets were in it,

634
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 2: so basically.

635
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: Was that Brian shot. Brian Schottenheimer was in it too.

636
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: Then ten eleven. Yeah, Jets, Steelers.

637
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: The Jets have a chance to win that game.

638
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:38,959
Speaker 2: I just couldn't.

639
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: They couldn't. They couldn't break through it the goal line.

640
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: If I remember correctly, I think they had a couple

641
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: of crafts. Sanchez couldn't got him through.

642
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: Sanchez in the Super Bowl, which would have changed all

643
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 2: your stats. All right, let's go to Ravens. Yeah, all right,

644
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 2: Ravens at eleven and a half as well, So this

645
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: is actually sixth six straight year that the Ravens will

646
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: have a double zero win total. Crazy thing about the

647
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 2: Ravens as well. I believe it's like eleven or twelve

648
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 2: even maybe even more straight years where they've been under

649
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 2: fifty to one, which I believe is the current active

650
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 2: streak as well. So they've earned contention every single season

651
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 2: no matter what. Uh. In terms of the roster to

652
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 2: me pretty much the same. I mean, they had Hopkins,

653
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 2: they lose Tucker, but there isn't like too much turnover there.

654
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 2: They're kind of running back, uh what they had before.

655
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 2: What's your thoughts on Baltimore.

656
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: There are some positives there, just like additioned by a subtraction.

657
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: Like Marcus Williams played a ton of snaps. He was

658
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 1: great out as like the worst safety in the league,

659
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: and then Brandon Stevens uh grated out as one of

660
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 1: the worst corners in the league and he played over

661
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: a thousand snaps, and so the secondary could be better.

662
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 1: I mean, they kind of got caught up, but it's Baltimore.

663
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 1: We know by week eight everyone's gonna be hurt. And

664
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: I think actually they had some they could have some

665
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 1: injury regression this year, So I would leave know under

666
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: a team like this, I think you can approach it

667
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: two ways. Like if you're if you look to kind

668
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: of bet over an upside, and I think with Baltimore,

669
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 1: you you just want the upside of like a super

670
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: Bowl ticket more than like if I'm bullish on Baltimore,

671
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: which I am, but I don't want their win total

672
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: over I would still lean under I just think he

673
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 1: got seventeen games from Lamar, a guy who runs around.

674
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 2: And could get hurt.

675
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: Got seventeen games from Derek Henry, who's getting up there

676
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: in age and an amazing season. You got seventeen games

677
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 1: from little Lassy Flowers who then immediately got hurt down

678
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: a stretch. And then you got seventy games from Mark

679
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: Andrews like that's and then four or five starting off

680
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 1: as lineman, sixteen games from Likely and you're the You know,

681
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: Roseen Garden was a guy that didn't play a full season.

682
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,479
Speaker 1: He's still only missed three games. So it's like your

683
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 1: entire offense got real lucky health wise. And every year,

684
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, it seems like Baltimore is banged

685
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: up in some way. So the fact that they were

686
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 1: able to stay healthy is just probably would have lucky.

687
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 1: But I mean, my god, Lamar Jackson, Mike like he

688
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: puts up another few more seasons like that, Like he's

689
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 1: got to be the best quarterback of all time, right,

690
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 1: I mean that they do through what how many touchdowns

691
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,959
Speaker 1: with four interceptions? I mean, I just have never seen

692
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: some to like it, especially when you're still running for

693
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: Damny at thousand yards, So anyone who wants to go over,

694
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna argue with you, but I would say

695
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 1: you want the upside of his team. I think it's

696
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: I think the under is a play tough division too.

697
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 2: Same pitch. I just feel like it's too many things

698
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 2: need to go right for it to go over eleven

699
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 2: and a half with a division that's still difficult. They

700
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 2: still get Buffalo Road KC Road in their last four

701
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: games at Cincinnati, at Homing, at New England, which he

702
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 2: could call easy, but you never know what's gonna happen

703
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 2: there with them and all the additions they've had, and

704
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,359
Speaker 2: then at Green Bay at Pittsburgh. So I just think

705
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: too much can go wrong. Eleven and a half is

706
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 2: a little bit much. I like the under better than

707
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 2: Kansas City, all right. Last wind total this high is

708
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 2: Buffalo so set at eleven and a half. They've gone

709
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 2: over their win total in three straight years and they

710
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 2: are seven and one to their win total over in

711
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 2: their last eight, so they've been pretty efficient in that

712
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 2: are and I think it has a lot to do

713
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 2: with the division.

714
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: Uh.

715
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 2: The biggest move of the offseason, Josh Allen got his ring.

716
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: Now he's looking for another ring. Uh, They've got the

717
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 2: fifth easiest schedule, which I think says a lot about

718
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,280
Speaker 2: who they're gonna play. But it's also Baltimore, Casey, Philly,

719
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 2: Cincinnati all at home, which has to help at some

720
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: point thoughts.

721
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 1: Buffalo, Buffalo is just so so good, so well run.

722
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 1: This is another one like this is so Buffalo is

723
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: actually my favorite Super Bowl future in the A. I

724
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,719
Speaker 1: think I think they have the best path to the

725
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 1: one seed, So this actually would be the one I

726
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: would put I'll give the least resistance to if you wanted.

727
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:45,439
Speaker 2: To bet the over.

728
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,720
Speaker 1: Again, I just personally don't see a point in betting

729
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: over eleven and a half wins for really anyone. But

730
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: you could make a case for it because, yeah, you

731
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 1: got your hardest games at at home. Uh, and you

732
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 1: know the road, the roads eight eight games instead of nine,

733
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 1: and it's not too bad, I mean Houston Pittsburgh, Okay.

734
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 1: And then the division is getting easier by the day,

735
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 1: I mean every day. Mike m Daniels goes on the

736
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 1: to the press conference and mumbles some nonsense about some

737
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 1: good player on the Dolphins that they're about to trade away.

738
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 2: The Jets are going all in on Justin Fields.

739
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: And I mean the Patriots, I mean Stefan Diggs Fox,

740
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: but is he gonna fuck for them this year?

741
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 2: Like you know what I mean.

742
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 1: So it's a lot going on. So yeah, I mean

743
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,439
Speaker 1: I can't, I don't. I can't really tell you why

744
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,919
Speaker 1: to bet the Bills under uh So this is one

745
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 1: if you're if you are looking at bet and over

746
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 1: on one this high, this is the one I would lean.

747
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 2: I think I think they improved the receiver room.

748
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 1: I think, you know, drafting a bunch of defensive players

749
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: is actually the right movie. Because remember the Patriots they

750
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 1: would have I don't know, Danny, Amon Doola, whoever, whoever

751
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 1: they found in the seventh round, or Drake they knew

752
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 1: they had Tom Brady. The Bills are doing the same thing.

753
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 1: And I go, we got we got Josh, We'll sign

754
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 1: Eliza Moore to a one year deal. We'll use Kurtis, Samuel,

755
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: Josh Palmer, all these stiffs, like it doesn't matter, They're

756
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 1: gonna be there.

757
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I guess the question I have is should

758
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 2: you win? I mean, you can bet win totals pretty

759
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: much after every week the entire season, almost until he

760
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 2: gets close to the end, do you maybe they lose

761
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 2: to Baltimore, Like maybe they dropped the first one at

762
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 2: home and it dips to ten and a half for

763
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 2: ten or something like that. That would be my only

764
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 2: thought there, Like the rest of the schedule is very cake,

765
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 2: but that is an interesting one to start off. So

766
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 2: that was auday.

767
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 1: I think, I mean, it's it's it's it's according. It's

768
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 1: a little early in the morning my time. But I

769
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 1: think I think I'm just trying to go over this

770
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,399
Speaker 1: in my head. Got the good little hunting. But I

771
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: think if if that were the case, the Buffalo is

772
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: hosting Baltimore, right, so get better taking Baltimore as an underdog.

773
00:37:57,920 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 2: On the money line.

774
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: Sure, and now not even worrying about like that, but

775
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 1: if you were, but if.

776
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 2: You were interested in buying Buffalo and you said to yourself, Okay,

777
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 2: it's probably gonna drop a win, a win and a

778
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: half something like that, I would guess if they lost

779
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 2: a home game in that situation, yeah.

780
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 1: You would get If you thought that was happening, you

781
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: would have a better payout by just taking Yeah, you

782
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 1: would have a better playout. But just taking Baltimore on

783
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 1: the money line, it would just it just wouldn't like

784
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 1: it wouldn't like I don't think you would kind of

785
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 1: base your plans based on like are they gonna win

786
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 1: a lose Week one? I mean unless it's the Bengals

787
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 1: who are gonna lose.

788
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, my money lines like plus one twenty, so completely understand.

789
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yeah, I think you just you just

790
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 1: do that and not even worry about like the little

791
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 1: minute because the books also know this, like they're prepared,

792
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 1: like they're you're not gonna see a massive tick Like

793
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: I think the bigger one is like we talked about

794
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, where it's you have a legitimate four or

795
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 1: five games that they could you know, they could start

796
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 1: out like four and four or something, and talking about

797
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,879
Speaker 1: now now it's like a race if it can't lose

798
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 1: an more games that that could change things in the market.

799
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:04,800
Speaker 1: An injury could change things in the market. But I

800
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: don't I would I would just take the Ravens win total.

801
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 1: If you thought the I mean the Ravens money line,

802
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 1: if you thought the Bills were gonna drop that game.

803
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,799
Speaker 2: That is a fair assessment. All right, let's go to

804
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 2: the win totals under a level, and now you got

805
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 2: four teams go a little quicker here. So Lions are

806
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 2: sitting at ten and a half. They've gone over the

807
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 2: win total in three straight seasons entering this year, their

808
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 2: longest streak since the early nineties. So to me, just

809
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 2: offensive line losses. You know, Ziler ragnow have a rookie

810
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 2: now at center, you lose Carlton Davis, Sidarius. I mean,

811
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 2: there's a bunch of you know things and people switching

812
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,240
Speaker 2: out on both sides of the ball. Also, pretty tough schedule,

813
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 2: a lot of primetime games. So I'm curious, like overall

814
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 2: thought on Detroit.

815
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 1: Fad baga, big fade us good. I mean, Yo, road

816
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:55,399
Speaker 1: games at Philly, at Case, at Baltimore, at Washington, at

817
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 1: the Rams, at Cincinnati.

818
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 2: And then look at the end of the year, at

819
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 2: end of the year at Minnesota at Chicago. So I agree,

820
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 2: like the whole situation's beginning season, Like you look at

821
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 2: all seventeen games, there's really fifteen battles and two easy games.

822
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,439
Speaker 2: Giant Yeah. And aside from that, like they're really going

823
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 2: to be in it every single week where they can

824
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 2: win or lose games. It depends on golf is coming

825
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 2: off of the best season he's had by far, in

826
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 2: his career, and it's just like, you know, how do

827
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: you really feel about him in that scenario? Now, I

828
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 2: looked there's not a ton of outdoor, cold GoF situation games,

829
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 2: but I don't know necessarily if that means anything, Like

830
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 2: I still think they could probably be beat in their

831
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 2: building or in dumb So yeah.

832
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: I mean no, this team, Listen, they've they've turned into

833
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 1: a great organization under Dan Campbell and a lot of credit.

834
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 1: But it's not just it's not just a schedule. I

835
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 1: mean that that's one thing, but this team is I

836
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 1: mean they cover every they've been covering every week. You know,

837
00:40:56,480 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 1: you can't even based on the schedule. It's the interior

838
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 1: of the offensive line that gives Jeff got trouble. You're

839
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: talking about literally all gone essentially like this is a

840
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 1: and you know the only guy you retained has was

841
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 1: the worst guy. Uh And then you're talking about you

842
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 1: lost Ben Johnson and not only by Johnson, it West

843
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: Tanner Engstrom as well to the Jets. So you have

844
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 1: your offensive coordinator and your passing game coordinator gone, with

845
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 1: a potential for more interior pressure with the tough schedule

846
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:33,720
Speaker 1: and likely more passing just a lot of defensive coordinator

847
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 1: lost too. And we know the defense is downside, right

848
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: because this was a defense that I forget the DVA rank,

849
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 1: but I know it was near the top of the league.

850
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 1: But we also saw this defense over the last few

851
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 1: weeks of the season. They couldn't stop a dancing they

852
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: you know they could. They get to the playoffs and

853
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 1: immediately at home, moves to a Washington team with a

854
00:41:56,800 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback and give up damn near fifty points. So

855
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:02,959
Speaker 1: I mean they single handed when you saved the forty

856
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 1: nine ers statistical offensive season, like, but their defense, I mean, like,

857
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: so that's the downside that they added d J.

858
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:11,359
Speaker 2: Reid.

859
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, I just think there's so many, so many

860
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 1: red flags with Detroit. And I'll give you one more.

861
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 1: We talked about Patagoran wins a widow and you're you're

862
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 1: u you will see this set times with these teams.

863
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 1: You win fifteen games. Uh, but they're point Diffrench who

864
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 1: implied they should have won thirteen games. Teams that overperform

865
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: by two plus. Now you know this is at the

866
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 1: lower end of that two plus. This is two exactly.

867
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 1: But teams are overperformed by two plus just fourteen and

868
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,839
Speaker 1: thirty to the over the next year, they're they're going

869
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 1: over just thirty two percent of the time, less than

870
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,359
Speaker 1: one third. And this goes back to two thousand and two.

871
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm going way back here to get the

872
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,280
Speaker 1: sample size, just just to kind of see what happens

873
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 1: when you're when you overperform.

874
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 2: To that extent.

875
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 1: And even if you look at you know, teams that

876
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,399
Speaker 1: overperformed by just one or more, so you can kind

877
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 1: of get it, you know, a little more widened to

878
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: sample size, put put it, you know, center it a

879
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: little bit more. For Detroit with the two, you're still

880
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 1: looking out only about a forty three hit forty two

881
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 1: forty three percent hit rate to the over. So a

882
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: lot of things that suggest that Detroit could take a

883
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 1: step back, and the books have already priced it in.

884
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 1: I mean, they're not even.

885
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 2: At eleven and a half. Right turn, Yeah, tough division.

886
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on on the lines here?

887
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 2: We kind of said it earlier. I think the line

888
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 2: is an issue. But I'll just give you one fact

889
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 2: here before we move on to Cincinnati, since I teased

890
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 2: it earlier. So Lins won fifteen games, win total was

891
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 2: ten and a half. That's a plus four and a

892
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 2: half when increase on expectation. So Detroit's going to be

893
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,400
Speaker 2: the eleventh team in the last decade to have a

894
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 2: double digit win total the year after eclipsing their win

895
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 2: total by four plus. Previous ten teams went two and

896
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 2: eight to the over. So I just think expectations, like

897
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 2: you said in a number of different your pithag stat

898
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 2: is also great. I just think they're set up for

899
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 2: a small comeback. And I think I also think that

900
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 2: division is another thing to look at, Like it's just

901
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 2: that division is absolutely brutal and probably better on some levels,

902
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,439
Speaker 2: and I think they're a little worse. So I think

903
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 2: that's what makes sense.

904
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 1: I mean, Jamiir Gibbs led we can touchdowns and had

905
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 1: two thousand screaming yards and he was like a backup

906
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 1: half the year. Like, you know, if he gets hurt,

907
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: I mean, you know that that that changes things a

908
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 1: little even Like it's just they're just a lot of

909
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 1: different things that could go wrong for Detroit. So I

910
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: actually bet them to miss the playoffs as well. You

911
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 1: can get you can get some pretty juicy odds, I

912
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 1: mean relatively juicy, you know, around you know, two to

913
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 1: one or something in that range.

914
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 2: I think that's that's pretty fair.

915
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 1: And you also see a lot of plus ev betting teams,

916
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: you know, that long to miss the playoffs to do it.

917
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 1: It happens more than people would think, and this is

918
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: certainly the division where where it could happen. I'm personally

919
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 1: higher on the Packers in this division and the Bears.

920
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 1: I think the Lions take a step back, and I

921
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 1: think Minnesota definitely it could. I mean there's a lot

922
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 1: of Minnesota gazing now. I think everyone's kind of make

923
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 1: up for last year.

924
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 2: But we'll see. Yeah, different quarterback, different situation. All right,

925
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 2: let's go to the Bengals. So I love this fact.

926
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:19,240
Speaker 2: So between nineteen ninety and twenty twenty two, the Bengals

927
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 2: never had a double digit win total and during any

928
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 2: season with a win total of ten. In twenty twenty five,

929
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,319
Speaker 2: they are now third straight year with a double digit

930
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 2: win total and they've gone under previous two years. So

931
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 2: obviously there's questions with Hendrickson and Stewart on the defensive

932
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:37,760
Speaker 2: side just not being there at the moment replacing both guards.

933
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 2: I kind of liked that they had p run in

934
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 2: the passing game with Brown and Moss. To me, the

935
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 2: biggest issue in Cincinna is probably the secondary. Their defense,

936
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 2: you know, with Hendrickson and Stewart, assuming they're back, maybe

937
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 2: okay on the pass rush, but I still think the

938
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,439
Speaker 2: secondary is a problem. The one thing I like about

939
00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:59,439
Speaker 2: the schedule four primetime games all separated by at least

940
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 2: two games, so no crazy back to backs or anything

941
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 2: to have to do there. I also kind of like

942
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 2: the end of the year with Arizona and Cleveland both

943
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 2: at home. You've said it a million times, but Burrow

944
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 2: one and nine, one and nine straight up in his

945
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 2: first two games of his of the season, which is

946
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 2: just feels absolutely impossible. But I'll toss it back to you,

947
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 2: Cincinnati at ten, what are you? What are you doing?

948
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 3: Uh?

949
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 2: Not betting Neo, that's for sure.

950
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I think I think like this team,

951
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 1: this is like that the team that they've they beat

952
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 1: the Chiefs in the conference title game. This is this

953
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 1: is an upside to you. I don't see any point

954
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,359
Speaker 1: in betting the team that's gonna probably sleep walk through

955
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks of this season, a team

956
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,280
Speaker 1: that can move to literally anybody because and you said,

957
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 1: assuming Hendrickson and Stuart are back.

958
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:47,320
Speaker 2: I mean, go tell that to Bengals fins.

959
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,440
Speaker 1: They feel like they feel like, not only may Henderson

960
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 1: not get the money and end up retiring. A lot

961
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: of people are and this this surprised me because I mean,

962
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,320
Speaker 1: this is this time of year, you know, you know, guys,

963
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 1: guys are just working on contract languages. Is what a

964
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 1: lot of people seem to think that the Bengals aren't

965
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 1: gonna budge on whatever they're doing with Stuart, and Stewart

966
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 1: is like upset that they're trying to make an example

967
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 1: out of him, and it's a kind of silly. But

968
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 1: there's there's people that think that that they would just

969
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 1: let him go back in the draft, and like so,

970
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how. I mean, there's a

971
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 1: lot of you know, it's it's just timing here. No

972
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 1: one has anything else to talk about and these in

973
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 1: these off these and uh, you know it's this time

974
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:30,319
Speaker 1: of the off season. But I mean it's I would

975
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 1: say the vibes aren't great in Cincinnati. So I mean,

976
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 1: if you are looking for it over, I would say

977
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 1: this is going to drop to nine and a half,

978
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:39,399
Speaker 1: or you could already get a nine and a half,

979
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 1: Like this is a team you talk about waiting. Maybe, Uh,

980
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 1: that's I think you could actually make a case based

981
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 1: on the track record to wait because we've got like

982
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: the same coach, the same quarterback, and you just keep

983
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 1: sleep walking through the first couple of weeks of the season.

984
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:58,399
Speaker 1: So and uh, I mean the road schedule is not

985
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 1: not not I don't love it. You know, sure at Buffalo, Greing,

986
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 1: bay Denver, Minnesota, Miami, Baltimore or Pittsburgh. Yeah, I can't

987
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 1: really make a case for the over I mean just

988
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is just so good.

989
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 2: That's it.

990
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 1: So I personally just it's upside for me, you know,

991
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, AFC, things like that.

992
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 2: What about you, Yeah, I'm with you. I'm back to

993
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 2: probably I think it was Nick Giffen who put the

994
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 2: bet off. Like the Bengals still out the most points

995
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 2: on defense last year. Like it's just you. I think

996
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,399
Speaker 2: you're looking at the exact same team, Like they're gonna

997
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:29,879
Speaker 2: score a ton of points on offense. Everything's gonna look

998
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 2: clean there, and I think the defense and they're gonna

999
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 2: give up a lot of big plays. So all right,

1000
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,800
Speaker 2: let's keep rolling here. Two teams left, both NFC West.

1001
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 2: We'll start with the forty nine Ers. I think the

1002
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 2: stat that's probably the most interesting there is they won

1003
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:43,479
Speaker 2: six games last year. They now have a win total

1004
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 2: of ten last decade. San Francisco be just the fourth

1005
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:48,759
Speaker 2: team to jump four plus wins to have a win

1006
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:51,840
Speaker 2: total of nine or more the following year, with Chargers

1007
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,799
Speaker 2: in twenty four, Broncos and the forty nine Ers again

1008
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,960
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one. To me, other than New England's

1009
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 2: probably the biggest turnover of any team we've seen. It

1010
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 2: just they've lost at least twenty seven players from what

1011
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:04,360
Speaker 2: I counted.

1012
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 3: Now.

1013
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 2: They've done a lot to bring in new talent and

1014
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 2: new people, and there's a lot of you know, kind

1015
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 2: of flipping around here, but no debo. You currently injured,

1016
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 2: and I think there's a question or two there. You've

1017
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 2: got three rookies, I believe, starting on defense if I'm

1018
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 2: looking right there, with Collins, Williams and Martin. So I

1019
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,879
Speaker 2: just think the turnover in San Francisco. I listen, I've

1020
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 2: heard a lot of Action Network people talk about San Francisco.

1021
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 2: They all seem to be in favor of them and

1022
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,399
Speaker 2: kind of like their upside. I'm just a little bit

1023
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:36,240
Speaker 2: more skeptical, but I know they have the easiest schedule

1024
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 2: and there's some things they're like, but what are your

1025
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,280
Speaker 2: thought on the Niners? Yeah, they're going to super Bowl?

1026
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:44,839
Speaker 2: There you go. Yeah, like I said, yeah, everyone everyone, Yeah,

1027
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 2: I get it understood.

1028
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 1: But they're gone to super Bowl obviously, like this is

1029
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 1: what they do. It's either last place finished or are

1030
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 1: they going at least to the erty championship game. So yeah,

1031
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:54,800
Speaker 1: I have a super Bowl ticket on San Francisco. I

1032
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 1: didn't bet they're over on their win total, but they're Yeah,

1033
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 1: the schedule is easy, but I think it's vision is

1034
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 1: not easy. I think the division is very good, so

1035
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 1: I could I could completely get behind, at least not

1036
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 1: betting they're over, even though you're you're bullish on them.

1037
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 1: But I do think when you talk about the roster tournament,

1038
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: it needed to happen because like last year there were

1039
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,920
Speaker 1: a six win team, they were injured and like a

1040
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 1: lot of the guys, they're essentially replacing guys who were

1041
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 1: injured or not really playing for them anyway last year

1042
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: with like higher upside, younger guys who should be less

1043
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 1: likely to get injured, and they they drafted five players

1044
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 1: in the top one hundred and thirteen gran It was

1045
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 1: like an ant draft, but overall the you know, just

1046
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 1: year by year class, but you know, five in the

1047
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: top one thirteen they draft. They have eight in the

1048
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 1: top one sixty. So this could be a completely different team.

1049
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 1: But I think that's a good thing.

1050
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 2: I think that.

1051
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 1: I think, like, we know, Kyle Shanahan's already brought you know,

1052
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: three three squads to you know, three squads to the

1053
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 1: to the super Bowl in the last nine years, so offensively,

1054
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 1: so we know what he's gonna do. Party an eight

1055
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:03,560
Speaker 1: point nine career, you are right for a ten. He's

1056
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 1: a very efficient quarterback.

1057
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,439
Speaker 2: That's like you ready, I'm just gonna say it. I'm

1058
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 2: not gonna be the guy on San Francisco. I think

1059
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 2: everyone else is. But I'm just I see the schedules

1060
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:15,319
Speaker 2: really easy. I see a lot of reasons for them

1061
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 2: to do it again. Shanahan's done and you know, all

1062
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:20,439
Speaker 2: sorts of different things. I just I see a crack

1063
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 2: so saying I got there all right. Last one is

1064
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 2: the Rams, this one nine and a half at sun Spots.

1065
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,240
Speaker 2: Westgate holds it at ten. So they are the eighth

1066
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,360
Speaker 2: team they're six and two to the over in the

1067
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 2: win total under McVeigh gone over last two years. He

1068
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,360
Speaker 2: tends to absolutely get the most out of his roster,

1069
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 2: so I think that's, you know, probably something that's going

1070
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 2: into this. They've lost a Cooper Cup, DeMarcus Robinson, They've

1071
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 2: added DeVante Adams. The other one I really like is

1072
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 2: they I like the Punaford at defensive venicle. He was

1073
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:50,759
Speaker 2: good with the Chargers. I think that's going to help

1074
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 2: them as well since they're they're upfront is also very

1075
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:55,839
Speaker 2: very good, so I think that makes them a little

1076
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 2: bit better. I think I'm a little worried about their

1077
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:03,239
Speaker 2: back half upfront fantastic with the linebacker, CB safety a

1078
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,720
Speaker 2: little possibly weak to me, maybe a weakness on that defense.

1079
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 2: I think the only other thing with their schedule that

1080
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 2: I noted here is four road games in their last

1081
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 2: six at the end of the year, which could be

1082
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 2: a little tricky if you're trying to get to an

1083
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,760
Speaker 2: over on a win total. But nine and a half

1084
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 2: I feel safer about in this sense. And then I'll

1085
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 2: give you one before I toss it to I want

1086
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 2: to mention again. So we talked about it earlier about

1087
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 2: New double digit win totals. So first year, which would

1088
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: be the Rams in this spot, so thirty five to

1089
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 2: fifty seven and fort of the over thirty eight percent.

1090
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 2: It's usually a bit of a tough climb for that

1091
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 2: first team in that first year getting to this level.

1092
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 2: But what are your thought on the Rams.

1093
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 1: I would not bet them to win eleven games, I'll

1094
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:47,280
Speaker 1: tell you, yeah. I like them, another team, high upside,

1095
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,400
Speaker 1: but still a tough division, and I think there is

1096
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:53,759
Speaker 1: some fragility there. You got, just to their credit, a

1097
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 1: lot of guys I think overachieving, just kind of out

1098
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 1: playing their draft pedigree, especially on defense. Well coached team,

1099
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 1: but uh, when you're if you're and I think Westgate

1100
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 1: is kind of shrewd for setting it at ten because

1101
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:08,720
Speaker 1: now you gotta win eleven. Yeah, and that's just tough

1102
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 1: in this division, especially you know San Francisco not shouldn't

1103
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 1: be a six win team anymore. I think I think

1104
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 1: the Rams beat San Francisco on some crazy comeback last year.

1105
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:21,799
Speaker 1: And this is another one of those teams that and

1106
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:24,279
Speaker 1: I'll cut them from slat because they did kind of

1107
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 1: punt the last week of the season, but uh, they

1108
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 1: went they overperformed by two wins as well compared to

1109
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:35,759
Speaker 1: their Patagonan wins, so you know they were just an

1110
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 1: eight win team Patagron So this is, uh, there's some

1111
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 1: red flags there. But I'll give you a fun So

1112
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:44,880
Speaker 1: I wouldn't yeah, I would, I would go it's under nothing.

1113
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 1: But I liked them for the Super Bowl ticket. But

1114
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 1: I'll give you a fun trivia. Not only are the

1115
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 1: Rams one of those like six teams, uh you know

1116
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 1: in the like McVeigh one of those six teams in

1117
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl over the last nine years, but over

1118
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 1: the past six years, there's only been uh there's only

1119
00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 1: been seven quarterbacks to start in the Super Bowl, and

1120
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:13,359
Speaker 1: the Rams have two of them. Uh. So I mean

1121
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 1: you talk about there's this a constant concentrated power within

1122
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 1: uh within within the National Football League. Again, if it's

1123
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,359
Speaker 1: if this is a year where the the Eagles don't

1124
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 1: win the NFC, it's it's gonna be the McVeigh Shanahan.

1125
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 1: So just take your pick. But they might actually so

1126
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:31,879
Speaker 1: that the I know they don't have a double win total,

1127
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 1: but I think one of the reasons I'm hesitant, uh

1128
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 1: to bet, like you know, overs on the the Rams

1129
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:40,960
Speaker 1: or even the Niners is because I think Arizona could

1130
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:44,320
Speaker 1: be very good, especially in the regular season. Arizona's because

1131
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 1: if you're talking about easy schedules, well, Arizona schedules even

1132
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 1: easier because like they like they there, they played like

1133
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:55,800
Speaker 1: New Orleans, like they're they're essentially the same with San Francisco,

1134
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,080
Speaker 1: like like their their schedules like the same as San Francisco's.

1135
00:54:59,239 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 1: And I don't think they're rosters that far behind either,

1136
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 1: And I think their rosters are a little less likely to

1137
00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 1: get hurt than either of these two teams. So I

1138
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 1: think Arizona and then Seattle's like not like I think

1139
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:14,280
Speaker 1: they could be really bad, but just on town alone

1140
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 1: with their defense could be solid enough to keep them

1141
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:19,799
Speaker 1: in games. I think it could go downhill, but it's

1142
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,560
Speaker 1: not a guarantee, so I'd be hesitating about I think

1143
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 1: this this could be another one of those gauntlets.

1144
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 2: And another reason, like.

1145
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:30,320
Speaker 1: Washington, if you're thinking of fading Washington or Philly in

1146
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:34,239
Speaker 1: the NFC, the NFCS might be a one team playoff

1147
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 1: sure like division this year because of the North and

1148
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 1: because I think this division is also very very good,

1149
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 1: So that's how it'd approach it. I mean the ram

1150
00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 1: didn't even win eleven games last year. No way I

1151
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:49,120
Speaker 1: would bet them to war to eleven this year. But

1152
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 1: will they be there when it's also done? Would I

1153
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:53,520
Speaker 1: be scared of them if I'm going up against them

1154
00:55:53,560 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 1: and it's like a nine win wild card? Hell yeah,

1155
00:55:56,040 --> 00:55:58,799
Speaker 1: Like this is Matthew Stafford with Jimmy Jimmy g back

1156
00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:00,959
Speaker 1: and it's one of the best backup situations in the league.

1157
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 1: I know, may make fun of him as a starter

1158
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 1: and whatnot, but yeah, they tend to just outplay their

1159
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:11,319
Speaker 1: their talent, so they're a high upside team.

1160
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 2: I think the way I would play the Rams would

1161
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 2: be uh. I know a lot of books are going

1162
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 2: to offer like will a team be a wildcard birth?

1163
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 2: I think that's intriguing. I also think trying to nail

1164
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 2: exact wins for them, like eight to nine, Area seven,

1165
00:56:24,680 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 2: eight nine, maybe I think is an interest way to

1166
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:28,319
Speaker 2: bet them, because I do think they get up there,

1167
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:30,759
Speaker 2: and I think that's possible. And then the only thing

1168
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:32,839
Speaker 2: I'd say about Arizona, I do kind of love their

1169
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:36,399
Speaker 2: schedule and you mentioned it only Thursday night Football Week

1170
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,680
Speaker 2: four versus Seattle and then their only other primetime games

1171
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 2: at Dallas comes Monday in football after the bye, so

1172
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:45,239
Speaker 2: pretty decent spot for them. And other than that, they're

1173
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:47,440
Speaker 2: pretty much one in four o'clock the entire season.

1174
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, no Raal Weather games. Yeah, I think they only

1175
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:53,000
Speaker 1: go like they go to Cincinnati eight in the year.

1176
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 1: But like that's that's gonna be a shootout. R it

1177
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 1: could be handlessly know and all ten of DUP players,

1178
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 1: you know, that's going to be a shootout. So yeah,

1179
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:03,760
Speaker 1: Arizona could surprise me. They draft the defense five straight

1180
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 1: and that's what they needed to do. Uh, underperformed, right, Yeah,

1181
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 1: so this is that that that's why, that's why a

1182
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:12,799
Speaker 1: lot of times, like people don't think about the you

1183
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 1: gotta handicap the entire division and really even more than

1184
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 1: that when you're kind of betting these winters because there's

1185
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 1: not as much margin forever. So yeah, I love San Francisco.

1186
00:57:24,240 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 1: You like the Rams as well, but not not in

1187
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:28,080
Speaker 1: the win total. Not the win total.

1188
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 2: Mark got to forecast Arizona Rams, San Francisco, Seattle lock

1189
00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 2: it in.

1190
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 1: Uh okay, I would I would flip off them, yah?

1191
00:57:37,040 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 2: Would?

1192
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 1: I mean, you just gotta you gotta respect the you

1193
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 1: gotta respect the regression. Right, it's like San Francisco. They

1194
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 1: don't put up too straight last place seasons. They go

1195
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:51,440
Speaker 1: last to the Super Bowl. Was like they do the

1196
00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 1: Eagles on the TV. That you gotta be worried about.

1197
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 2: What happens is San Francisco wins thirteen games and then

1198
00:57:57,160 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 2: they flop out in like the first or second round.

1199
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,880
Speaker 2: But no, no, don't flop out in the Couge Championship.

1200
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 1: Yea, our heartbreaking We sew on like a brock Purty

1201
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 1: like doublow and elbow will come out of his shoulder

1202
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 1: or something ridiculous, fantastic.

1203
00:58:11,760 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's not wish that on anyone. All Right, that

1204
00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 2: has been it. We've gone through all a double digit

1205
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 2: win totals. Talked about you know our article, the article

1206
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:22,439
Speaker 2: that's up on the site on Action Network right now

1207
00:58:22,480 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 2: to go check out. You've now heard Raybond go over

1208
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 2: almost forty teams in a bunch of different podcasts. So

1209
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 2: got to appreciate that. But thank you everybody for listening.

1210
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 2: This has been the Action Network podcast. I am your host,

1211
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 2: Devin Abrams. That was Chris Raybond. Check out all of

1212
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 2: our stuff on the Action.

1213
00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 3: Network feed and enjoy today everybody.

1214
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:55,000
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1215
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,800
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1216
00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:00,880
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