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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, we've certainly seen

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Speaker 1: a move up in rates here again the ten year

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Speaker 1: treasury one point five three, the thirty year two point

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Speaker 1: zero nine, we did touch two point one percent, So

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Speaker 1: that got people's attention this week and kind of raising

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Speaker 1: the issue of an inflation and and how does the

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Speaker 1: secuity market behave in the facing some uh inflation, both

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Speaker 1: in the near term and longer term. Let's check in

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Speaker 1: with Brett Ewing, chief market strategists at First Franklin Financial

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Speaker 1: Services during us on the flow from Tallahassee. I think

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Speaker 1: there's some university down there in Tallahassee. I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: might play against my dukeys in the a sec Brett Ewing,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Um again, we

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Speaker 1: inflation kind of rearing its its head here A little

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Speaker 1: bit more for investors here, how do you think these

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Speaker 1: equity markets perform in what is likely to be a

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Speaker 1: you know, a rising inflationary environment. Yeah, a great question.

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Speaker 1: I think that you know, the market is pricing in

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Speaker 1: uh continuation here of the inflation numbers. Um. We saw

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Speaker 1: supply chain reports coming out earlier in the week, and

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Speaker 1: as we all know, the supply chain really hasn't been

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Speaker 1: so transitory uh going into this fourth quarter. So we

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Speaker 1: think that that the pipeline there is going to improve.

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Speaker 1: I think it's dependent on COVID and I think that

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Speaker 1: will help with the inflationary pressures in the spring. But

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Speaker 1: it's gonna take a little longer than we're all thinking. UM.

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Speaker 1: I know it's very frustrating for Chairman Powell, but you know,

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Speaker 1: I think I think they're probably gonna go ahead and

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Speaker 1: start the taper or announce it formally in November at

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Speaker 1: the next meeting. And uh, I think it's due though,

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Speaker 1: So let's talk more about those supplies and issues, because

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Speaker 1: it doesn't just impact, you know, monetary policy. There's also

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Speaker 1: the earnings question because when your input costs are higher,

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Speaker 1: margins come into question, and especially as you know we're

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Speaker 1: entering now, I believe today's two hundred and thirty days

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Speaker 1: where we haven't seen a pullback of five percent in

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Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred. How vulnerable are equities at these

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Speaker 1: levels as we had into earning season. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: last week we did hit an ter day five percent correction.

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Speaker 1: We were hoping that we would get there. Um, these

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Speaker 1: markets need to to have that correction. You know, the

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Speaker 1: SMP just has gone almost twelve months without it. I

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Speaker 1: think they can be vulnerable. I mean, look in two

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have a lot of headwinds. We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: the FED doing a taper program. We're gonna also potentially

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Speaker 1: have rate hikes going into the fourth quarter of next year.

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Speaker 1: You know, the dot plot is moving forward. As far

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Speaker 1: as ray hikes, We're gonna have continued supply chain issues,

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Speaker 1: potential hike in taxes. So I think these markets could

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Speaker 1: be vulnerable. But going to the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: we're still holding our price target on the SMP AT

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Speaker 1: and I think we could rally into the end of

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Speaker 1: the year before we get into a more volatile marketplace

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Speaker 1: in Yeah, that's a nice move up. You've got their forecast.

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Speaker 1: I hope you are correct. How about you know a

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Speaker 1: few weeks ago. We had a big shock to the

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Speaker 1: market when China reared its ugly head and ever Grand

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Speaker 1: and the concern about a contagion coming out of Asia

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Speaker 1: that seems to have ebbed a little bit. Are you

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Speaker 1: is that on hear rate our screen. We are still

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Speaker 1: monitoring that. And it's not just about ever Grand anymore.

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Speaker 1: China has a lot of debt issues and that's just

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Speaker 1: the first salvo um We think there could be continued

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Speaker 1: problems coming out of China. They've got a housing issues,

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Speaker 1: they've got major debt issues with some of their companies,

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Speaker 1: and the crackdowns are doing in the technology sector and

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Speaker 1: software sector and the gaming industry and recently on bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna cause even more problems in their in their economy.

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Speaker 1: And that's what we're forecasting, going into something else that

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Speaker 1: could happen in maybe if you know things get together

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Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill. Is higher tax rates to pay for

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Speaker 1: longer economic or longer term economic spending. How do you

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Speaker 1: factor that in when making investment decisions, the risk of

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Speaker 1: that coming down the pike. Well, look hiking corporate tax rates.

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Speaker 1: These big corporations, they certainly have the horsepower with their

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Speaker 1: tax attorneys on their payroll to maneuver around as much

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Speaker 1: as they can. It's the small business owner that's going

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Speaker 1: to get clauded, and that is the backbone of the

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Speaker 1: US economy and that definitely will give some headwins to this.

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Speaker 1: Uh this economic outlook. Earnings growth is already in a

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Speaker 1: slower growth mode as we go into adding increasing corporate

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Speaker 1: taxes is only gonna exacerbate that. Brett gotta asking the

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Speaker 1: time left Florida State Seminal football team, what's going on

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Speaker 1: down in Tallahassee. Wow. Uh man, it's tough. It's tough

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Speaker 1: right now being a seminal. But we do have faith

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Speaker 1: in coach Doorbell. He's a very solid individual, a great leader.

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Speaker 1: I think I think they're gonna eventually get their act

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Speaker 1: together here, um hopefully this weekend playing Syracuse. All right,

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Speaker 1: Brett Youwing, thank you so much for joining us. We

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Speaker 1: appreciated Brett youing Chief Market Strategists first Franklin Financial Services

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Speaker 1: on the phone from Tallahassee, Florida. And yes he is

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Speaker 1: a graduate of the the Florida State University in Tallahassee.

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Speaker 1: You know, when you think about it, when we talked

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Speaker 1: to these smart people, these pros Kaylee. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: that goes into that wall will worry that is very

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Speaker 1: tough to dismiss, and yet you continue to see the

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Speaker 1: buying of the dip behavior, and to me that really

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Speaker 1: strikes there's a contrast between institutional investors and retail investors

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Speaker 1: and how much is it, you know, retail investors that

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Speaker 1: just continually come in and buy the dip that is

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Speaker 1: actually continuing to drive US higher despite all the concerns

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Speaker 1: and risk factors out there. Yeah. Absolutely, And I think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be very interesting as we go into this

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Speaker 1: earning season starting in a couple of weeks, the guidance

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Speaker 1: we get from these companies, you know, it's gonna be uh.

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Speaker 1: I think we're gonna hear about these uh supply chain

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Speaker 1: challenges and the impacts that will have on its costs

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Speaker 1: and you keep correctly bringing up the margin pressure that

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Speaker 1: could eventually come into some of these companies, And so

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Speaker 1: that will be really interesting, uh to see kind of

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Speaker 1: the guidance they have as it relates to the supply chain,

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Speaker 1: as it relates to inflation, UH, and their margins going forward.

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Speaker 1: So again, earnings as it seems to be every quarter,

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Speaker 1: will be very important for this market. As this market

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Speaker 1: is at or near all time highs on a daily basis,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna more coming up. This is Bloomberg, all right.

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Speaker 1: Looking at the d X Y index's came back, you know,

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Speaker 1: late Mayo's around here. We are ninety four and change.

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Speaker 1: Nice move in the dollar, dollar strength. Let's get to

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Speaker 1: the bottom of that. PREA misra head of global interest

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Speaker 1: rate strategy for TV securities joints is is that you

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Speaker 1: the flight to perceived safety over the last couple of

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Speaker 1: months here, what do you make of the dollar strength?

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Speaker 1: I think thanks for having me on. I think the

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Speaker 1: initial move may have been, you know, just safe haven,

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Speaker 1: but I do think there's an underlying theme here of

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Speaker 1: US exceptionalism, of the U s out performing the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world U on the growth front, and now

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Speaker 1: in the last week of the FED starting the process

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Speaker 1: of unwind and they've sort of taken the drama out

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Speaker 1: of the taper. We know when taper starts, when it ends.

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Speaker 1: And if that means that US rates and US rates

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Speaker 1: have been the underperformer in in in terms of global

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Speaker 1: rates over the last week or so, I think that's

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Speaker 1: what's reflected in in in the in the currency. You know,

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Speaker 1: the correlations between reads and currency do tend to rise

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Speaker 1: when you're in these inflection points of monetary policy, and

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Speaker 1: I think we're kind of there now, So let's talk

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Speaker 1: about those higher rates pre Obviously, we're now north of

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Speaker 1: one fifty, where it seemed for a while like we

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Speaker 1: might never get back to. There is the bias for

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Speaker 1: yields now firmly to the upside. I think in the

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Speaker 1: long end, I would argue for somewhat time. Yes, I

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Speaker 1: think tapering is not entirely priced in. The Fed chap

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Speaker 1: out suggested a much sooner end to tapering than what

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Speaker 1: the market was priced for. So the market, I think

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Speaker 1: in the last week has been pricing in a fast

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Speaker 1: end of taper or or a fast end to quee.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a little bit more room and that

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Speaker 1: we're looking for one seventy five on the tenure. I

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Speaker 1: do think the front end is much more a function

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Speaker 1: of economic data. We're gonna get payrolls next week, and

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Speaker 1: our view is that that's where the economy is a

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Speaker 1: bit choppy, or the recovery is not going to be

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Speaker 1: a straight line up. So I think the front end,

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Speaker 1: the zero to five year part of the curve. It's

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Speaker 1: not clear to me that the bias is higher rates

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Speaker 1: just yet. We really need to see whether the structural

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Speaker 1: labor market issues, is participation rising, what's happening on the

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Speaker 1: labor front. I think we need evidence of that recovery

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Speaker 1: before those rates can rise a lot, because we're already

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Speaker 1: pricing in the first rate hike at the end of

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Speaker 1: next year, which I think is a fairly optimistic view.

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Speaker 1: So I actually think front and rates and long fives,

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Speaker 1: I think front and rates can decline because we're going

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Speaker 1: to realize that the economy has a lot of work

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Speaker 1: to do on the labor market front, and the FED

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Speaker 1: is going to let it run before they hike. But

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Speaker 1: the long end is a different story. I think that's

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Speaker 1: where Acque actually matters a lot. And you know, you

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Speaker 1: raise a good point there, because we had initial jobs

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Speaker 1: claims this morning came in a little higher than expected,

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Speaker 1: the highest point since early August, the third month in

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Speaker 1: a row of of kind of higher initial jobs claims.

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Speaker 1: Should we make up too much out of that or

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Speaker 1: how do you view that? Are you putting that in

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Speaker 1: the context? Is that a trend for you? Yeah, we

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Speaker 1: were stretching aheads a little bit about that. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's always seasonals this time of the year, just at

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Speaker 1: the start of the new school year, We've often noticed

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Speaker 1: seasonal quirkiness in the data. The supplementary unemployment insurance also

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Speaker 1: ran off. It's also only a couple of states um

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Speaker 1: that showed the rise, So we're not thinking this is

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Speaker 1: the start of a trend, but it's absolutely something we

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Speaker 1: want to watch for. Or I think the claims are

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Speaker 1: giving you a sense of you know, firings and layoffs,

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Speaker 1: while what we're trying to spend more time on is

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Speaker 1: people re entering the labor force. What's the pace of

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Speaker 1: hiring is if some of the supply chain disruptions that

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Speaker 1: maybe keeping you know, production law are those ebbing away.

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Speaker 1: So you know, our thought is that the labor recovery

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Speaker 1: is still continuing and that it's not reversing, but it's

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Speaker 1: a slower process than I think what the FED or

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Speaker 1: the market would like to see. Obviously, the labor market

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Speaker 1: recovery and the resulting FED reaction function is one thing

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Speaker 1: that the market has to consider on the monetary side,

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Speaker 1: on the fiscal side, I'm just wondering how you view

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Speaker 1: the drama down in DC, not only the question around

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Speaker 1: the dead ceiling, but also the question of what economic

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Speaker 1: spending in the longer term is actually going to look

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Speaker 1: like in terms of a dollar figure. Right, that's a

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Speaker 1: huge deal, particularly because we know there's going to be

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Speaker 1: a physical drag for next year. So the extent of

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Speaker 1: the drag I think is very important for every market

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Speaker 1: to consider. And that's where this artisan there. It's one

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Speaker 1: or three and a half or nothing. I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to have an implication for how much of a

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Speaker 1: fiscal drag does the economy have to live through next

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Speaker 1: year because growth is going to slow down. Are we

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Speaker 1: going from four percent to two or are we going

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Speaker 1: below that? I think the fiscal package actually has a

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Speaker 1: lot of bearing. Um. Hard to tell our base cases

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Speaker 1: that one and a half to two trillion partisans plus

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Speaker 1: the one point too and bipartisan will go through. Clearly

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Speaker 1: not easy, and then we've got this messy dead ceiling.

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Speaker 1: At least it seems like the shutdown is going to

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Speaker 1: get resolved. That's good, But the dead ceiling is a

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Speaker 1: tough one, um, And I think the market is absolutely

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Speaker 1: ignoring it. Other than a small part in the builders,

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Speaker 1: I don't think any market is really pricing that in

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Speaker 1: and it's one of those things where you hope and

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Speaker 1: pray that you don't have to get to it, but

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Speaker 1: if you do, these market implications economic implications are so

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Speaker 1: high that I think being aware of that and hopefully

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Speaker 1: we don't have to wait until October seventeenth to see

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Speaker 1: what happens. But I'm not seeing a very clear consensus

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Speaker 1: past of how the death ceiling you seized. Pre MIZERA,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. I really appreciate

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Speaker 1: always getting your thoughts here on global interest rate. She

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Speaker 1: is ahead of global interest rate strategy at TV Securities,

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Speaker 1: based in New York City. We've got green on the

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Speaker 1: screen here. A lot of uncertainty down in Washington, d C. Today,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of things have to happen right to

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Speaker 1: get some of this legislation moving. But the markets are

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Speaker 1: kind of taking away and see action. Uh so will we.

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Speaker 1: But let's check in with a professional on the markets,

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Speaker 1: Alan Rukshoff, and financial advisor and senior portfolio manager for UBS. Alan,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. I'm a little

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Speaker 1: surprised that the markets are kind of hanging in there,

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Speaker 1: given that we've got a lot of things building. This

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Speaker 1: wall of worry, whether it's rising interest rates, tapering uh,

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Speaker 1: legislative uncertainty down in Washington. How do you put it

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Speaker 1: all together when you talk to your clients. Yeah, Paul,

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Speaker 1: that's that That is the the billion dollar question. We

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Speaker 1: have a lot of investor challenges, potential to higher taxation, inflation,

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Speaker 1: all these ideas that are out there, and government shutdowns looming.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps so all these things really are in the midst

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Speaker 1: of a period of recovery after the pandemic. You know,

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Speaker 1: we have a situation where we have a health crisis

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Speaker 1: that's going to leave a world that's more indebted, less global,

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Speaker 1: more digital. But at the end of the day, they're

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Speaker 1: going to be structural changes that happen as a result

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Speaker 1: of the last eighteen months that we've all lived through

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Speaker 1: together that really could lead to extreme positivity, spectacular positivity.

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Speaker 1: And I think that the market is aware and has

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Speaker 1: to balance both of those things, the realities of the

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Speaker 1: uncertainty with the fact that we have a potential for

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Speaker 1: unbelievable new things to happen over the next couple of years. Well,

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Speaker 1: you talk about how things have changed during the pandemic,

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Speaker 1: and it's to such a degree that the word normalization

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Speaker 1: is relative. You know what is normal now. But when

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Speaker 1: we talk about not just monetary policy normalization but fiscal

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Speaker 1: policy normalization and that being less supportive going forward, how

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Speaker 1: do you think about that with the long term lens. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we have a situation on the monetary policy side, and

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Speaker 1: we'll get the fiscal policy in a second. Of the

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Speaker 1: monetary policy side, where we have a balance sheet that

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Speaker 1: has doubled over the course of the of the of

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Speaker 1: the COVID crisis. We had a quadruple over the course

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Speaker 1: of the financial crisis. So there's a lot of new

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Speaker 1: money out there. We have a Congress that is considering

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Speaker 1: two bills right now that's going to spend more and

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Speaker 1: more money, and so there is a real structural question

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Speaker 1: about whether or not this can have long term impacts

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Speaker 1: on inflation, and the inflation question, the transitory language, notwithstanding,

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Speaker 1: has to be a question that goes beyond the academic

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Speaker 1: because we have a lot more money out there and

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Speaker 1: balance that with the supply chain issues and everything else

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Speaker 1: that's going on, and we really have to try to

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Speaker 1: understand where things are heading in the ticks of these

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Speaker 1: great changes. So the fiscal policy and the monetary policy

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Speaker 1: of all this new money, Really we don't know where

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Speaker 1: that's going to be, and that is the wall of

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Speaker 1: worry that that Paul referred to. So Alan, you know,

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Speaker 1: Katie and I were just chatting off air about, you know,

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Speaker 1: how consumer behaviors may change post pandemic. You know, we've

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Speaker 1: been through eighteen months of this, whether it's getting back

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Speaker 1: into the workforce, buying a house. When you talk to

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Speaker 1: your clients, have you sense that their outlook for their investments,

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Speaker 1: their goals has has anything changed? What I've seen changes

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Speaker 1: this acceptance that we are in an inflationary period. I

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Speaker 1: think the people feel that, notwithstanding this idea of transitory inflation,

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Speaker 1: once prices go up, uh, we don't see it go

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Speaker 1: down so fast. And I think that the clients have

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Speaker 1: are respectful of that and trying to figure out how

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Speaker 1: to keep up with inflation. Historically, the stock market has

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Speaker 1: been an excellent place to do that, and that's, you know,

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Speaker 1: one of the ways to stay ahead of inflation. But

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Speaker 1: really doing that in the context of managing the risk

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Speaker 1: of what's going on out there, it is a necessity,

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Speaker 1: and it goes beyond you know, having bonds and stocks.

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Speaker 1: It goes looking at alternative investments and and other potential

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Speaker 1: and uh, you know, and this is by certainly not

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Speaker 1: a recommendation and uh certainly not an area of that

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Speaker 1: that we look at from an investment perspective, but certainly

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Speaker 1: gives you some indications of people's thinking out there is

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Speaker 1: the focus on the cryptocurrency market and the fact that

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Speaker 1: it gets quoted, you know, by by people on TV

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Speaker 1: and looked at very seriously because people are trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out how do you manage the risk For us,

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Speaker 1: we really try to diversify throughout um the listed security

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Speaker 1: world and through alternative investments to try to do that

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Speaker 1: because of this uncertainty that's out there. And I think

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Speaker 1: that in answer to your question, that's what clients are

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Speaker 1: focused on. How do you balance the COVID realities, the

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Speaker 1: fiscal man terry policy realities, with the fact that we

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Speaker 1: have to stay ahead of inflation. What do you tell

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Speaker 1: a client who comes to you and says, I think

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Speaker 1: it may be time for me to you know, telt

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Speaker 1: more into cash. You know, having cash as part of

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Speaker 1: me portfolio, especially in a period of such dynamic change,

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Speaker 1: is a must. At the same time, I think that

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Speaker 1: the inflation picture is something that we have to be

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Speaker 1: aware of so we don't want to. It's not a

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Speaker 1: matter of fear of missing out. It's beyond that. It's

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Speaker 1: a matter of keeping up with the global pricing structure

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Speaker 1: to being able to be able to buy the Coca

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Speaker 1: Cola for the same price you know, two years from

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Speaker 1: now that it is today, based on your assets that

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Speaker 1: you have. So I think that people are it's they're

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Speaker 1: they're they're numerous risks by by taking an action, but

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Speaker 1: there it could be significantly greater risk by taking in action.

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Speaker 1: All right, Alan, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 1: I really appreciate your perspective and your thoughts. Alan Rekschaffen,

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Speaker 1: financial advisor and senior portfolio manager at UBS based in

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Speaker 1: New York City. Um, and again, you know, it's it's

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Speaker 1: tough to be in cash because it's not you're not

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Speaker 1: getting paid here and on a you know, a real basis,

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Speaker 1: you're losing money in cash. And so it's for a

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Speaker 1: lot of folks it's that Tina situation kind of there's

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Speaker 1: no alternative. I need to be in the market, and

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Speaker 1: so that becomes a question of what do I own.

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Speaker 1: You know, if we're in fact heading into rising and

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Speaker 1: rate environment, inflation picking up, and it may not be transitory.

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Speaker 1: What do I want to own in this market? So

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Speaker 1: that tends to be the discussion for lots of folks.

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Speaker 1: We're got more coming up. This is Bloomberg. Let's bring

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Speaker 1: it right now. Louis Navalier, Chairman, founder and CEO of

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Speaker 1: Navalier and Associates. Louie, thanks so much for joining us here.

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Speaker 1: I think as we think about these markets, Kaylee and

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Speaker 1: I were just discussing, this wall of worry is a

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Speaker 1: real thing. There's a lot of stuff out there. How

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Speaker 1: are you thinking about these markets when people might throw back, Boy,

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Speaker 1: We've got inflation, we've got earnings risk, we've got uncertain

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Speaker 1: Washington d C. We've got rising rates. How do you

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Speaker 1: frame it all well? I think the big picture that's

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Speaker 1: happening now is obviously China's intercession, and we had that

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Speaker 1: with their purchasing energy index this morning, and Britain could

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Speaker 1: be in a recession pretty click too if they don't

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Speaker 1: get their act together, and then we have a green

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Speaker 1: energy problem because anyone who's trying to comply is um

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Speaker 1: it's not working out in China. It's the higher electrics

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Speaker 1: drawing down. So then they're trying to. They have rolling

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Speaker 1: blackouts and many provinces and obviously in Britain, I guess

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Speaker 1: pycess up sixfold because the wind will stop blowing. That's

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Speaker 1: also hurt Germany. And it's it's a problem, and it's just, uh,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have very high energy inflation and uh it's um.

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Speaker 1: I think it's against told. But the central banks can't

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Speaker 1: raise rates because the interest burden is too big. So okay,

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Speaker 1: so you just desc I had a lot of things

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Speaker 1: that I would think would be you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: negative for a risk sentiment. But to Paul's point, we

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Speaker 1: continue to climb the wall of worry by the dip

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Speaker 1: works every time. Is there a point where it's going

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Speaker 1: to stop working. I think it's gonna work welter in

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Speaker 1: the next year, because um, when you have inflation, it's

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Speaker 1: either real estate or stocks, and growth stocks are place

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Speaker 1: to be. Clearly, some energy stocks are gonna wint fall earnings.

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Speaker 1: But I don't have the analysis estimate cuts UM that

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Speaker 1: some people are starting to complain about. But I am

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Speaker 1: finding fewer stocks to buy UM, and I am profiting

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Speaker 1: from all the problems out there. I mean, I'm loaded

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Speaker 1: with all this shipping and container stocks, so they're going

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Speaker 1: to be profiting from the glut men the ship, the

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Speaker 1: shipping glut, and um It's just it's a very interesting

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Speaker 1: environment we're in. But earnings do work. Um. We are

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Speaker 1: going to have positively quota results and notest on so

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Speaker 1: it's previous quarter and then we have season seasonal strength

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Speaker 1: in a lot three months the year. October is the

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Speaker 1: season strong month despite October eighty seven and Novembers even better.

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Speaker 1: So I expect the strong finish to the year. UM.

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Speaker 1: I was very happy. Every time the market corrects, the

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Speaker 1: money seems to go to different stocks, so money is

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Speaker 1: not leaving the market's just washing around. All right, Louis,

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Speaker 1: you've been in this game a long time. You began

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Speaker 1: publishing your research advisory newsletter in so you've seen economic cycles.

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Speaker 1: The one of the areas that's really getting my attention

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Speaker 1: in the last several weeks has been this global supply

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Speaker 1: chain issue. We're hearing from more and more companies affecting

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Speaker 1: their businesses and more and more ways. It just seems

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Speaker 1: like it's setting us up for some earnings disappointments. Perhaps

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Speaker 1: uh not just in the near term and maybe intermediate term,

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Speaker 1: how do you think about this global supply chains. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be fixing itself in the near term. Well,

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Speaker 1: other than only the container stocks and a lot of

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Speaker 1: shipping stocks. I don't have an issue with it because

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Speaker 1: I am T s M and UMC and micro Electronics

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Speaker 1: and TMC Thaiwan Semi, so they're making the chips are

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Speaker 1: in high demand. But there's no doubt that the electrification

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Speaker 1: has become a problem. And because the electric cars would

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Speaker 1: take more chips than the other cars, and so that's

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Speaker 1: it's it's a glitch. I mean, Taiwan, somebody's building a

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Speaker 1: great big plant Arizon them, but it's just it's not

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Speaker 1: ready yet. And uh so there's this fight for chips

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Speaker 1: and it's very very sad, and but at least I

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Speaker 1: can profit from that and from the shipping bottlenecks. UM

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Speaker 1: food is a big problem because fertilizer is high and

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Speaker 1: natural gases gets fertilizer prices up. You you're talking about

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Speaker 1: things that could profit from some of the shortages out there,

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Speaker 1: but that if there's a winner, there's always going to

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Speaker 1: be a loser. So what would you be saying far

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Speaker 1: away from in this environment, Well, uh, that's a good question.

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Speaker 1: I don't like this typicals um. Uh. I like companies

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Speaker 1: that dominate their business and monopolistic margin expansion is one

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Speaker 1: of my big things. Uh. So I have sold all

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Speaker 1: the Chinese retailers I had. I did that some time

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Speaker 1: ago though. UM. And in the US, I'm very careful

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Speaker 1: about retail I do have Coals and some especialty stores.

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Speaker 1: I have some sporting good stores, you know, Dicks, Big five. UM.

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Speaker 1: But I really do think we have to be very

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Speaker 1: very careful about we have to watch the consumer. I

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Speaker 1: mean that's um consumer the conference board, UM, the consumer

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Speaker 1: sentiments dipped and that was not a good thing. Hey, Louis,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us once again. We always

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Speaker 1: appreciate your time. Louis Navalier, chairman, founder and c IO

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Speaker 1: of Navalier UH and Associates here again. UM. Interesting, you know,

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Speaker 1: trying to pick the sectors that are benefiting in the

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Speaker 1: near terms, such as the transportation logistics companies that are

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Speaker 1: able to charge extraordinarily high rates here for their goods

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Speaker 1: and services to get the goods around the world moving.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

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Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever

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00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

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00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 1: at Matt Miller three. Put on fall Sweeney I'm on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always

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Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio