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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday, having amaze the

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Speaker 3: show for a buddy today, what do we.

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Speaker 1: Have, Crystal?

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Speaker 2: Indeed we do so More American service members have been

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Speaker 2: killed and wounded.

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Speaker 4: We've got the details of that.

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Speaker 2: As we seem to be hurtling back towards all out war.

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Speaker 2: Martaza Hussein is also going to join us to take

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Speaker 2: a look at the strikes between the Iran and the

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Speaker 2: US and try to glean what we can about the

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Speaker 2: military strategy involved from each. We're also going to do

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Speaker 2: a deep dive into the oil market. How long can

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Speaker 2: it sustain without massive skyrocketing prices. The prices are already

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Speaker 2: going back up, so we'll take a look at that

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Speaker 2: as well. Friend of the show, Phil Wegman with a

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Speaker 2: big scoop on some insider treating alleged scandal between a

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Speaker 2: Republican member of Congress and a prominent mega influencer. We've

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Speaker 2: got new details about the psycho ice.

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Speaker 4: Maniac who killed an immigrant in Maine.

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Speaker 2: Pretty shocking who this guy was and what his ex

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Speaker 2: wives have to say about him as documented in court records.

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Speaker 2: And Tim Dillon is sounding off on JD Vans had

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Speaker 2: to play a few of these clips. They're quite extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: Of course, watch the whole show, which is definitely worth

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Speaker 2: checking out.

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Speaker 1: But shout out to Tim.

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Speaker 3: Thank you everybody, so subscribe to the show breakingpoints dot

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Speaker 1: But let's go ahead and start.

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Speaker 3: As Crystal said, it's very sadly with the debts announcement

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Speaker 3: of American service members. Let's actually put the first element

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Speaker 3: up here on the screen quote the US heitters on

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Speaker 3: return to all out war with Iran after more troops

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Speaker 3: were killed. So the details of this are really tragic.

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Speaker 3: We now have currently three likely service members who were

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Speaker 3: killed in that attack on a base in Jordan, and

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Speaker 3: another who was killed yesterday in Iraq during a detonation

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Speaker 3: of an unexploded Iranian drone.

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Speaker 1: That one appears to have been a very serious accident.

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Speaker 3: While the drone was being decommissioned or exploded in a

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Speaker 3: controlled way, the debris ended up striking and killing another person,

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Speaker 3: not the person who is doing that. In terms of

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Speaker 3: those three service members, two have been confirmed to have

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Speaker 3: been killed in action. We learned the names of two

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Speaker 3: of them just this morning at twenty five year old

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Speaker 3: first lieutenant and a nineteen year old private, nineteen year

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Speaker 3: old girl from Texas, which just kills me on it,

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Speaker 3: I can't continue to talk about that. The last one

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Speaker 3: is a last one servicement. We don't have their identification

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Speaker 3: yet appears to have been They were initially listed as missing.

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Speaker 3: Some remains have been found to the identification process for

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Speaker 3: that body is now underway. But what we do know

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Speaker 3: is that the video of the strike, and we can

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Speaker 3: show that one all of you, just demonstrates how difficult

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Speaker 3: the United States now finds itself in a position where

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Speaker 3: this is a Air Force base in the middle of Jordan,

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Speaker 3: where previously we've had seen strikes in terms of drones.

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Speaker 1: But look at what that looks like when a.

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Speaker 3: Ballistic missile slams into the middle of the base and

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Speaker 3: of course kills or likely three service members, but also

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Speaker 3: does a significant amount of damage. A lot of the

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Speaker 3: after action report that has come out from this strike

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Speaker 3: actually demonstrates the sheer nightmare that we are all living

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Speaker 3: in right now. It appears that these missiles are being

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Speaker 3: fired directly in a way that having learned through multiple

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Speaker 3: months now of strikes on US basis that Iran has

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Speaker 3: actually developed new tactics to be able to penetrate American systems.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of speculation, obviously not confirmed right now

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Speaker 3: as to the lock the low stock of interceptors which

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Speaker 3: we have hammered home here from the beginning on the show.

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Speaker 3: Nobody knows what the current stock pilot is. Somewhere between

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Speaker 3: fifty and eighty percent of US interceptors are likely already depleted,

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Speaker 3: which means we could be in rationing. And this is

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Speaker 3: what rationing would look like, is that you just simply

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Speaker 3: don't have the ability to hit everything.

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Speaker 1: So it's either or.

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Speaker 3: The Pentagon has not given any details, and we also know,

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Speaker 3: and this is the element guys I sent this morning,

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Speaker 3: is that there have been hundreds of now casualties which

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Speaker 3: have been hidden from the American people. We could put

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Speaker 3: this up from the New York Times, which says the

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Speaker 3: Pentagon has withheld dozens of US military injuries now in

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Speaker 3: the Iran war. Dozens actually just this week quote attacks

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Speaker 3: injured dozens of service members, damaged several helicopters. According to

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Speaker 3: several US officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity

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Speaker 3: to discuss operational matters, and that included those strikes that

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Speaker 3: actually killed these multiple service members. In this particular strike

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Speaker 3: as well as across the region, the Pentagon has not

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Speaker 3: released any updates whatsoever on those strikes. They also have

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Speaker 3: reduced the information in terms of the strikes that they

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Speaker 3: are conducting, which demonstrates again that they are very fearful

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Speaker 3: of the amount of information the Iranians have been able

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Speaker 3: to take in and to adapt their tactics. No signs

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Speaker 3: yet that things are abating. Trump previously, in a Wall

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Speaker 3: Street Journal report about two months ago, had said that

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Speaker 3: Trump is content with the ceasefire strategy as long as

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Speaker 3: no Americans are killed.

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Speaker 1: And now we have four that are killed, well, three likely.

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Speaker 3: Another confirms four likely debts, all just in a twenty

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Speaker 3: four hour period, which all of this is not looking.

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Speaker 1: Good right now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and many more.

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Speaker 2: There's you know, indications that in that strike there are

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Speaker 2: many more serious serious injuries as well. In that original

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Speaker 2: Washington Post piece that we had up on the screen,

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Speaker 2: they're saying, not only are we low on interceptors, we're

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Speaker 2: low on pretty much everything. There were officials that they

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Speaker 2: spoke to I'll read this portion speaking on the condition

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Speaker 2: of anonymity, caution that the expansion of US operations will

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Speaker 2: be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long

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Speaker 2: range munitions, and constraints on the ability to surge more

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Speaker 2: troops and aircraft into the area because of battle damage.

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Speaker 2: We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and

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Speaker 2: I don't think the White House is aware of that.

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Speaker 4: Just sit with that for a second. This official within the.

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Speaker 2: Trump administration is saying, we don't have the troops, we

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Speaker 2: don't have the long range munitions, we certainly don't have

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Speaker 2: the interceptors to continue with this operation, this escalation that

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Speaker 2: we've been pushing forward. And I don't know that the

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Speaker 2: Administry station that the White House Trump knows about that.

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Speaker 2: They go on to say military experts have said that

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Speaker 2: in addition of the toll taken on US equipment and

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Speaker 2: munition stocks, the US is unprepared for possible ground operations

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Speaker 2: inside or on that Trump last week refused to rule out.

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Speaker 2: So this couldn't be the reason why after a series

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Speaker 2: of high level, quite significant strikes, there actually was a reduction.

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Speaker 2: It seemingly, again based on what we can gleam from

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Speaker 2: public information.

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Speaker 4: There was a reduction in the number of.

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Speaker 2: Strikes, you know, as the weekend progressed. It could be

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Speaker 2: simply due to limitations and what we're able to do

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Speaker 2: at this point.

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Speaker 4: So that is absolutely extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: And then the other thing I wanted to point out

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Speaker 2: with regard to the strike on this Jordanian base. We'll

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Speaker 2: talk to Mos more about this because he'll have more detail.

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Speaker 2: But Jordan has long been very close to US ally.

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Speaker 2: We send them billions of dollars and they allow us

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Speaker 2: to operate basically freely within their country. They also have

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Speaker 2: very large Palestinian population, including actually the Queen who's pallaced

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Speaker 2: Ani and Jordanian, and so they have a very sensitive

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Speaker 2: political situation as well, which is why they've always downplayed

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Speaker 2: the presence of US troops on their soil. But very

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Speaker 2: clearly we've been operating there for a long time. We're

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Speaker 2: not particularly shy about talking about it.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 2: The IRGC put out a statement thanking the Jordanian people

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Speaker 2: for providing the targeting information that enabled these strikes, and

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Speaker 2: they think in particular some members of the Jordanian military.

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Speaker 4: So this is an important piece to keep in mind.

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Speaker 2: I don't know whether that's true or not, or whether

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Speaker 2: that's just they want to project, but it is important

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Speaker 2: to keep in mind that even though the governments of

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Speaker 2: these nations, these Gulf nations that were operating out of,

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Speaker 2: or Arab nations in the case of Jordan that we're

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Speaker 2: operating out of, even though the governments may be aligned

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Speaker 2: with the US, the people is a very different story. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, even though they're monarchies and you know, don't

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Speaker 2: have freedom of democracy in most instances, you still have

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Speaker 2: pressure from people that create It's also a very volatile

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Speaker 2: political situation and a lot of exposure for US.

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Speaker 4: In the region.

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Speaker 3: That's almost certainly not true in terms of the military piece.

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Speaker 3: It's almost certainly true whenever it comes to the population. Actually,

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Speaker 3: we can just give you an example. Let's put a

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Speaker 3: two up here on the screen just to show all

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Speaker 3: of you. This is satellite imagery which was released by Iran,

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Speaker 3: which actually shows many of the strikes across the region.

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Speaker 3: So we have Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. I

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Speaker 3: mean Bahrain. We have talked a lot over the last

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Speaker 3: several months here on the show about their Shia population,

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Speaker 3: how they had serious domestic uprisings and actually a scap

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Speaker 3: of being part of their population is on the side

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Speaker 3: of Iran, right, and so of course it would make

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Speaker 3: a complete sense that they probably have you know, fifth

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Speaker 3: calumnists and others who are much more siding with the

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Speaker 3: Iranians than with the United States Jordan. As you just said,

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Speaker 3: that one is self explanatory, and that's where many US

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Speaker 3: service members all were just killed within the last forty

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Speaker 3: eight hours.

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Speaker 1: Iraq also major Shia.

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Speaker 3: Population, started to tell anybody about the US popularity in Iraq,

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Speaker 3: where actually the minister in the United States just president

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Speaker 3: just met a few days ago, and in it they

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Speaker 3: committed to a removal of US forces eventually from Iraq.

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Speaker 3: Anyone want to tell me why they're even there since

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Speaker 3: after two thousand and three. But you know, of course

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Speaker 3: that's the American Empire, and then Kuwait and Katar, so

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Speaker 3: all of these countries have bases tens of that maybe

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Speaker 3: hundreds of thousands. At this point, we really have no idea.

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Speaker 3: That's one thing I also want to emphasize. I just

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Speaker 3: see that we are getting such a tiny little picture

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Speaker 3: of what's actually happening. Yeah, these Gulf countries have cracked

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Speaker 3: down so hard. We have no clue what's coming out

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Speaker 3: of that reach, like the videos and all of that

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Speaker 3: from the early days of the war.

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Speaker 1: They are not going to allow any of that anymore.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: We also know the international news agencies and others are

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Speaker 3: under strict censorship regime a lot of the population. You know,

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Speaker 3: they're all being monitored for what they can and can't

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Speaker 3: put out. You know, here in terms of about the

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Speaker 3: US service members that have all been wounded, that all

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Speaker 3: of that was covered up and it did you know,

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Speaker 3: the battle damage assessment others is coming by anonymous leaks,

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Speaker 3: very likely from people in the military who are shocked,

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Speaker 3: who are horrified about what's happening. And we're really I

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Speaker 3: mean I feel in a sober mood. I think we're

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Speaker 3: on the precipice. I just do not see a way

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Speaker 3: out at this point. We will talk with MOZ about

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Speaker 3: there's a new ten day cease fire. I mean, we've

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Speaker 3: just seen it all before. At this point, the strategic

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Speaker 3: logic of it just keeps coming back to the Iranians.

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Speaker 1: One exact pain.

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Speaker 3: Their global strategy is one where we punish the US consumer.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk later.

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Speaker 3: Oil so gas is back at four dollars a gallon

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Speaker 3: at a national price. Their other strategy is to cause

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Speaker 3: significant chaos and to create costs on the Gulf countries

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Speaker 3: for their alliance with the United States. And you know,

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Speaker 3: in these service members in particular, you could say in

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Speaker 3: the beginning, like, oh, you know they were America was

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Speaker 3: dragged into.

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Speaker 1: This war by these reel. It's not entirely true, but

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Speaker 1: you know, partially true. At the very least.

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Speaker 3: This is Trump, Like this is all just Trump is

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Speaker 3: firing as a right these people dot What did these

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Speaker 3: people die for?

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Speaker 1: I know that's an uncomfortable.

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Speaker 3: Question, but how can like this is so entirely on Donald,

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Speaker 3: So this is a nineteen year old girl there who

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Speaker 3: is dead because of these strikes. Also, if you look

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Speaker 3: at their occupation, they're all work in missile defense and

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Speaker 3: in artillery units. So what does that tell you about

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Speaker 3: Iranian targeting? So they know exactly where the specialized units are.

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Speaker 3: Remember when that Space force casualty was killed as well.

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Speaker 3: So they're directly have high levels of intelligence and they're

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Speaker 3: creating significant costs here and for them, they have had

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Speaker 3: orders of magnitude people be killed. But they're living in

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Speaker 3: an existential conflict like One of the clips will show

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Speaker 3: people in a little bit is the Foreign Minister Arachi

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Speaker 3: talking about do you know what it's like to sit

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Speaker 3: in a meeting and think you're going to get bombed?

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Speaker 3: That puts you in a genuine bunker mindset. None of

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Speaker 3: us are there. We can't even tell you why at

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Speaker 3: the poling came out today. The Iran War is the

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Speaker 3: least popular war in the history of Poling, in the

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Speaker 3: history of Poe.

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Speaker 1: It took six.

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Speaker 3: Years for Americans to get to this point whenever came

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Speaker 3: to Vietnam, and even then there was still some dead

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Speaker 3: enders and others. There's nobody thirty percent or whatever of

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Speaker 3: the country only who is still mainlining Fox News, who

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Speaker 3: still believes a lot of the stuff.

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Speaker 2: But the problem is those people in Trump's space are

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Speaker 2: overwhelmingly in favor of it. And so even though you

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Speaker 2: would look at the national picture and say, oh, that

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Speaker 2: it argues in favor of getting out, I mean, the

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Speaker 2: problem for him politically is if he gets out and

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Speaker 2: accepts the surrender, he knows he's politically screwed. If he

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Speaker 2: does something insane, ground incursion, nuclear weapon, god forbid, there's

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Speaker 2: some chance maybe it works out. So I guess the

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Speaker 2: way he's looking at it is while taking some chance,

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Speaker 2: having some possibility that I can turn this thing around,

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Speaker 2: is better than the certain humiliation that is entailed in

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Speaker 2: accepting the Memo of Understanding, this on the table. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, you know, we just sort of assume

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Speaker 2: that what was agreed, the framework that was agreed to before,

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Speaker 2: is going to continue to be on the table. And

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Speaker 2: I don't think that's a safeth assumption whatsoever, because what

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Speaker 2: Trump is effectively done here has proven the hardliners in

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Speaker 2: Iran correct. After they signed this Memo of Understanding, then

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Speaker 2: the first thing they do is go out and try

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Speaker 2: to establish this other cord or that the US can

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Speaker 2: control in the Strait of Hormus. Your audience said, look,

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Speaker 2: we knew we couldn't trust these people. See, we can't

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Speaker 2: trust them, you can negotiate them, you can't work with them.

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Speaker 2: We should have continued our own striking, our own bombing

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Speaker 2: campaign so that we could gain war leverage, and they

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Speaker 2: have not experienced enough pain. That is the view that

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Speaker 2: is going to be a sendate in Iran because of

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Speaker 2: our actions here. So with that being said, let's go

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Speaker 2: ahead and bring in Rataza Hussein from drop site to

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Speaker 2: talk about everything that has transpired so far.

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Speaker 4: Mad's good to see.

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Speaker 5: You could see both good sea man.

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Speaker 2: So your reaction to the events over the weekend, these

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Speaker 2: escalating strikes, the service members who have been killed.

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Speaker 4: Where do you think we are at this point?

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, it's really heartbreaking actually because I think

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Speaker 6: we were told many months ago that the war was

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Speaker 6: over and we're still taking casualties in the region as

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Speaker 6: the results of the conflict. I think if the war

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Speaker 6: were to continue, it's only going to get in terms

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Speaker 6: casualties and escalation and so forth, because the phase of

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Speaker 6: the war is now moving to one where the defending party,

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Speaker 6: who's trying to wage a war patrician.

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Speaker 5: Really has the advantage.

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Speaker 6: The way the Iranians fought the war was effectively in

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Speaker 6: the early stages, they were using their older ballistic missiles

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Speaker 6: to try to drain the missile defenses throughout the region.

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Speaker 6: And you know that meant that the US is fighting

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Speaker 6: for a position of advantage because the suspenses were stronger.

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Speaker 6: Those have either been destroyed now or significantly depleted by

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Speaker 6: those attacks, and which you saw in these attacks with

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Speaker 6: the Iranians are using their more advanced missiles the ones

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Speaker 6: that they were holding in reserve, and they're doing more damage.

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Speaker 6: They're more accurate, they're hitting farther away from Iran, they're

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Speaker 6: striking targets with great precision, and that will continue if

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Speaker 6: the war continues on in this fashion. So I think

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Speaker 6: that the MoU really was a great time for the

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Speaker 6: US to end the war because it was ending in

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Speaker 6: a position. While you know, the deal, the terms were

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Speaker 6: not great for the US. It was ending at a

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Speaker 6: time when Iran's advantages as the nutritional power were not

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Speaker 6: really coming to point beer. If the war doesn't go

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Speaker 6: on a lot, it's going to be quite a bit

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Speaker 6: more of this, And it's really heartbreaking because I saw today,

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Speaker 6: I think stugar I mentioned that the nineteen year old,

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Speaker 6: the twenty.

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Speaker 5: Three year old were killed.

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Speaker 6: There's no reason for those people to be in the

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Speaker 6: Middle East dying in a war against Iran. But if

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Speaker 6: the war does continue, unfortunately, there's going to be a

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Speaker 6: lot more of that, and we'll also see more pressure

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Speaker 6: for a ground campaign because the air campaign itself is

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Speaker 6: not designed to defeat Iran. It's not really capable of

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Speaker 6: doing that. And the way that the war is also fought,

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Speaker 6: the campaign intensity of the air goes down over time,

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Speaker 6: so really February twenty eighth March fourth that period that

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Speaker 6: was the peak intensity and it only goes down from there.

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Speaker 6: And these destruction of bases is also going to further

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Speaker 6: reduce the effectiveness of the aerial weapon, so there'll be

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Speaker 6: more pressure to take an island, to launch some sort

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Speaker 6: of ground campaign, and that will mean more casualties inevitably

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Speaker 6: as the war continues.

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Speaker 3: Let's put a eight up there on the say a seven.

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Speaker 3: I apologize. The US actually attacked a nuclear power plant

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Speaker 3: site in Iran. Several missiles hit the power plant. This

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Speaker 3: caused some retaliation from the Iranians who appear to have

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Speaker 3: hit Let's put a six please on the screen multiple

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Speaker 3: desalination and power plants in Kuwait. The targeting of civilian infrastructure,

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Speaker 3: both from the United States and then in retaliation from

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Speaker 3: Iran kind of fulfills this escalation trap that we've been

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Speaker 3: worried about MOS. But does the United States have the

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Speaker 3: military capacity to sit here and take this for even

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Speaker 3: another year. I mean, everything that we've seen so far

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Speaker 3: from the depletion of interceptor socks in just a matter

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Speaker 3: of thirty nine days, God only knows what those numbers

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Speaker 3: are right now after these series of strikes currently. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it does seem to create a logic where you literally

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Speaker 3: have to do a ground invasion or buckle in the

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Speaker 3: future or you will simply have nothing left whenever it

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Speaker 3: comes to firing back missiles being sent to you.

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, that's exactly the problem, because first of all,

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Speaker 6: the depletion of interceptor stocks and the destruction of air

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Speaker 6: defenses means that the war becomes more dangerous for the

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Speaker 6: US and as allies as it goes on, and we're

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Speaker 6: currently entering that phase at the moment. But secondly, there

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Speaker 6: will be more pressure because the US can either capitulate

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Speaker 6: or leave the conflict without a deal. I think a

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Speaker 6: deal itself, for many reasons we can talk about, is

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Speaker 6: probably becoming more unlikely, or could escalate to the ground

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Speaker 6: and escalate to try to invade the Iranian coast, try

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Speaker 6: and invade certain islands in Iran and.

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Speaker 5: Capture them and so forth.

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Speaker 6: But that really does not make a lot of sense

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Speaker 6: to me either, because, first of all, leaving aside the

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Speaker 6: casualties that will take place in that circumstance, it's.

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Speaker 5: Not clear why that would end the war.

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Speaker 6: If the US takes a couple of islands, and the

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Speaker 6: straightform moves, Iran will fire ballistic missiles those islands.

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Speaker 5: People will be killed in those attacks.

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Speaker 6: There'll be a question of how to resupply people on

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Speaker 6: the islands, how to keep them there, what they'll be

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Speaker 6: doing while they're there, how to keep them safe, and

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Speaker 6: so forth. Those quess won't go away, and that escalation

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Speaker 6: will leave further escalation, because then if you hold the islands,

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Speaker 6: you may need to hold part of the coast to

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Speaker 6: keep the soldiers there safe. And then when you're on

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Speaker 6: the coast to be hit by drones and ground attacks,

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Speaker 6: you'll have to invade further inland. And really the logic

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Speaker 6: of it is eventually you'll have to invade the country

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Speaker 6: all the way to Tehran to depose the government by ground,

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Speaker 6: because that's the only way of even theoretically keeping people

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Speaker 6: making your previous gains sustainable, and that if you look

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Speaker 6: at the size of Iran, it's a country of ninety

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Speaker 6: two million people, it's the size of Western Europe. You

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Speaker 6: really need a draft to be able to even think

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Speaker 6: about doing that, and even a draft itself will probably

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Speaker 6: not be generate enough brigades to hold the entire country

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Speaker 6: and pacify and so forth.

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Speaker 5: And I don't think anyone in America really wants that.

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Speaker 6: If you've meantally mentioned earlier, the war's the most unpopular war,

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Speaker 6: and since polling has been done before a draft, before

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Speaker 6: a crown campaign, and so forth. Really at the early stages,

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Speaker 6: so it seems politically impossible. But the US and Trump

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Speaker 6: himself has kind of boxed himself into this situation whereby

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Speaker 6: he can either walk away, which I think he still

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Speaker 6: can do, or he can be trapped in the situation

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Speaker 6: of greater and greater escalation, which will be much more

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Speaker 6: casualties without any guarantee even.

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Speaker 5: Victory at the end.

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Speaker 2: Right as we got some significant development. I want to

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Speaker 2: get to you in just a minute, but I wanted

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Speaker 2: to get your sense of what you read into the

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Speaker 2: targets that were chosen, both on the Iranian and the

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Speaker 2: American side. So first, let's start with why are the

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Speaker 2: Iranians hitting Jordan so hard at this point, which is

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Speaker 2: a relatively new development here.

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Speaker 4: What do you think is the strategy at play?

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Speaker 5: Well, you know there are two things here.

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Speaker 6: First of all, in the early phases of the war,

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Speaker 6: Iran hit really hard. The bases which are closer to Iran,

442
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 6: and a lot of those bases have been disabled now

443
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 6: so they can't really be used and they're not deemed

444
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,400
Speaker 6: safe enough to be used for air campaigns. A lot

445
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 6: of the infrastructure there has been destroyed and so forth.

446
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 6: And what they also did was they hit a lot

447
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 6: of the radars and air missile defenses which were between

448
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 6: itself and Jordan. So Jordan is basically the next domino

449
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 6: in line. And what the US did when the basis

450
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 6: closer to the Iran became unsafe or destroyed, they moved

451
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 6: more of their assets to Jordan. So Jordan became the

452
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 6: primary hub, one of the major, most important hubs for

453
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 6: waging the war against Iran. And now it's at the

454
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 6: front line, and now it's being hit really hard, and

455
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 6: now those bases are going to probably most likely be

456
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 6: deemed unsafe or disabled for the fight going forward. And

457
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 6: the aircraft love to move further away, so they have

458
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 6: to move probably to Israel. And Israel is further obviously

459
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 6: from Iran. It's also more defensible from the air because

460
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 6: more compact and the air defense density is greater around

461
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 6: its critical sits.

462
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 5: So you know, I think that's probably the next step.

463
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 6: What Iran is doing is trying to disable all the

464
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 6: bases in the Middle East which it can be used

465
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 6: to attack it, which are close to it, render them

466
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 6: unusable for the war. And if you have to fly

467
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 6: from Israel, you'll have to fly, There'll be fewer flights,

468
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 6: there'll be longer distances, and so forth, And the effectiveness

469
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,959
Speaker 6: of an air campaign fought at a long distance is

470
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 6: much munch less than those which are fought, you know,

471
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 6: all on Iran's borders, So it'll be for their benefit.

472
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 6: And I think that the strikes against Jordan will probably

473
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 6: continue until that base is abandoned or not used for

474
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 6: active operations, or the Jordanians make some sort of a

475
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 6: deal with Iran to that end, And I think that's

476
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 6: kind of the only way out of the war at

477
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 6: this point. If the Arab countries around Iran decided to

478
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 6: make deals with Iran to end the war and say

479
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 6: they won't use the territory and airspace to be used

480
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,359
Speaker 6: for attacks against Iran. Absent agreements like that in the region,

481
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 6: I think that the war will probably continue, and it

482
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 6: won't continue in a way which is favorable.

483
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 5: With anybody.

484
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 3: Turning now significant breaking news really happened in moments before

485
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 3: we just started. So let's go put this up here

486
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 3: on the screen breaking. The Huthis of Yemen have announced

487
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 3: a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia quote effective immediately. Saudi

488
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 3: Arabia has until now exported about four point five billion

489
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 3: barrels per day from Yanbu in the Red z see,

490
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 3: most of it heading sound through the Bob al Mandeb

491
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 3: stread straight between Yemen and Djibouti. So this means mas,

492
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 3: this has been the literal nightmare scenario. This has been

493
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,479
Speaker 3: a significant way for Saudi Arabia's economy to remain at

494
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 3: least somewhat resilient through the Straight of Horror Moves blockade.

495
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 1: With both the Straight of Horror Moves.

496
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 3: Blockaded and the Bab al Mandeb Straight for Saudi Arabian oil,

497
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: this will significantly impact, as we said, four point five

498
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 3: million barrels per day that we're currently transitting through the

499
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 3: Babel Mandeb strait and actually keeping the oil market at

500
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 3: least somewhat afloat throughout this last five month period. Your

501
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 3: reaction to the significance of this, and then of course,

502
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 3: building on the strategic problems for the United States and

503
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 3: the world coming out of this announcement.

504
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 6: Well, absolutely, this is posto a worst case scenario for

505
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 6: how the war could escalate, because you know, the reason

506
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 6: the global economy is not imploded to the degree it

507
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 6: could have because of the wars, because there was this

508
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 6: pressure valve in the Baba Mandeb and the Red Sea

509
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 6: which a lot of the oil not all of it,

510
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 6: but many much of it from the region could have

511
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 6: been pumped from this pipeline across sad Arabia and then

512
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 6: through the Suez and so forth, or down through Asia.

513
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 6: That's now theoretically, if this announcement holds and they really

514
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 6: do enforce it, that option is closed now. And what

515
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 6: also is happening is sad Arabia is being brought into

516
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,479
Speaker 6: war much more directly, whereas they've been somewhat more aloof

517
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 6: from the conflict today. And you know, I think this

518
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 6: is now a situation where the global economy, economies in

519
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 6: Asia and Europe will be very existentially threatened on a

520
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 6: short time frame, and the US also will be impacted

521
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 6: very greatly. So the fact that the war even got

522
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 6: to this point is very very alarming. And the fact

523
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 6: that the Huthis and the Iranians are now taking. This

524
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 6: step is very very dangerous because it suggests they themselves

525
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 6: have now decided that the prospect of a negotiated solution

526
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 6: is unlikely or almost impossible at this point, and they're

527
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 6: using their own nuclear option here, or their own one

528
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 6: of the highest escalatory options that they had on the

529
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 6: table that they had not deployed in the first few

530
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 6: months of the war. And I think that the calculation

531
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 6: is that if the US cannot make a diplomatic agreement,

532
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 6: if it's you know, can't be trusted, or they can't

533
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 6: have a consensus in the US system strong enough to

534
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 6: push forward with the deal, then the only other option

535
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 6: is to basically send a very very strong deterrent message

536
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 6: by destroying the global economy, destroying the US economy, and

537
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,719
Speaker 6: making sense, basically laying down a marker that no president

538
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 6: will ever want to do this again because it was

539
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 6: so painful. If you can't make a deal, you can

540
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 6: at least inflict that lesson, and there's a very painful

541
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 6: lesson for people around the world, for people in America,

542
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 6: people in Iran as well, will suffer a lot. But

543
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 6: it seems like if they're closing the babbamn them. They've

544
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 6: decided that that's the only way out of the situation now.

545
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 6: I still always hold out hope that every escalation will

546
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 6: result in some sort of rapid diplomatic shift. And there's

547
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 6: some toxic about proposals for a new ten day deal

548
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 6: between the US and Iran, a pause and strikes to

549
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 6: talk again. We'll see how those play out, but I

550
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 6: think that they move by the Huti's suggest that the

551
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 6: odds of that are quite slim, and really everyone is

552
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 6: looking now towards the deterrence option, which will be very,

553
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 6: very painful for everybody, and could see some of those

554
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 6: worst case scenarios with oil take place within the next

555
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 6: month well.

556
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 2: And part of the strategy is the global economy through

557
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: the oil market, and part of the strategy for Iran

558
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 2: as well is making life unlivable, punishing their own neighbors

559
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 2: who have hosted US bases, who have allowed the US

560
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 2: to use their terrain to launch strikes in some instances,

561
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: who have launched strikes themselves. And as part of that,

562
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 2: the US is striking civilian infrastructure inside of Iran. They're

563
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: striking a desalination plant, for example, and the Iranians also

564
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: Struck a Kuwaiti desalination plant. Talk about that aspect of

565
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 2: things and the significance here of these water plants and

566
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 2: what it means for the region.

567
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 6: Sure, so in the Gulf Arab States, these countries are

568
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 6: basically not habitable without these water salination plants. It's a

569
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 6: very arid, very hot environment. You need packaged goods in

570
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,959
Speaker 6: large numbers. You need these water treatment plants which separate

571
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 6: the salt from the water and make it drinkable.

572
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 5: They need those.

573
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 6: If they didn't have them effectively, you have to abandon

574
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 6: these countries. So they're very very important in Iran, In

575
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 6: Southern Iran, it's extremely important to have these plants, and

576
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 6: some significant amount of the population relies in them. In

577
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 6: total view to the country, it's probably just a few

578
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 6: percentage points. They runs a very very large country. You know,

579
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 6: there are other sources of water. They do have water problems,

580
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 6: but you know, they have access to multiple bodies of water,

581
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 6: and a lot of their water problems are really due

582
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 6: to mismanagement, it seems like so as long as with

583
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 6: climate change, but you know, in the Gulf States it's

584
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 6: a much more extential problem for all the entire countries.

585
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 6: So if these plants were destroyed, you would have to see,

586
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 6: you know, abandonment of major urban centers. You have to

587
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 6: see maybe some countries will be literally not habitable anymore

588
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 6: in the short term. So it's really very serious escalation.

589
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 6: And I think that's also something that the Iranians have

590
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 6: said that if you go for us with the nuclear

591
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 6: option in some fashion, we can escalate to the highest

592
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 6: level with you. So they said that if you target

593
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 6: our civilian infrastructure, we will hit back proportionately, and they

594
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 6: did do that in Kuwait after their desalination plants were

595
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 6: hit in southern Iran. But I did see in the

596
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 6: last forty eight hours at least the US, as far

597
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 6: as we've seen, has not hit major civilian infrastructure in Iran.

598
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 6: After that they have been hit significant numbers of bridges.

599
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 6: No desalination plant has been hit again, at least.

600
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 5: In that time.

601
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 6: So the deterrent message of the Iranians strikes may have

602
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 6: been effective in that sense. So I do hope that

603
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 6: we don't see any more civilian infrastructure strikes because that

604
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 6: would trigger really really cashtraphic scenarios. And you know, if

605
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,719
Speaker 6: you had a situation where you know, Dubai or cutter

606
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 6: or Kuwait is being literally evacuated and rendered an inhabitable.

607
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 6: The knock on effects for the global economy and the

608
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 6: US economy even the short term would be very, very

609
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 6: catastrophic because of the linkages there financially have been developed.

610
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,479
Speaker 6: So really it's a threat to the entire world if

611
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 6: that would happen.

612
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 1: Let's put be two up there.

613
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 3: This is an interview that the Foreign Minister Arachi gave

614
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 3: to local Iranian media. Here he says that the US

615
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 3: made two miscalculations. They started the war. They didn't account

616
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: for resistance. Quote, the Zionist regime thought that with a

617
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 3: short attack they could destroy everything. When that didn't happen,

618
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 3: they were forced to stop the war. Something that he

619
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 3: expounds on pretty extensively here is specifically about the lead

620
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 3: up to the negotiation process and about zero enrichment and

621
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 3: what their goalposts that were constantly moving. We obviously covered

622
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 3: that extensively at the time. But then that this can

623
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 3: only truly end with a deal, what do you make

624
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 3: then of their position being where it is, and you

625
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 3: said previously that it's very unlikely that we actually could

626
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 3: be able to get a deal from mere assessment so far.

627
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, Unfortunately, it's hard to see it in

628
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 6: the short term, and I would like to be surprised

629
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 6: in that term on that point. But if you look

630
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 6: at the situation in context, Iranian signed a deal with

631
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 6: the US by a decade ago.

632
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 5: It was a huge risk.

633
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 6: The people in the system were the reformers camp was

634
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 6: took a real big gamble and they were.

635
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 5: Hit really hard when the deal was violated.

636
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 6: By Trump and twenty eighteen and then again last year

637
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 6: and this year they took part in negotiations with the US.

638
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 6: Aragchi himself delibered a deal to the US side which

639
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 6: was much more generous actually than the JCPOA in terms

640
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 6: of US interests. Both times, in the middle of those negotiations,

641
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 6: Iran was attacked. And that's attacking someone and killing negotiators

642
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 6: is something very extreme that was not even done by

643
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 6: beligible parties in World War Two because it was known

644
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 6: to be how damaging it is. The idea of having

645
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 6: a deal going forward, even if it's a country you

646
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 6: have far more enmity with than Iran, you wouldn't do

647
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 6: that because you may need to talk people in the

648
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 6: future and you need to have a degree of trust

649
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 6: to make those taxs tap, so that specific principle was

650
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 6: attacked during these conflicts. So despite all that, they still

651
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 6: somehow got the MoU after a few months of fighting,

652
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 6: and then the MoU immediately fell apart because it was

653
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 6: perceived that the US, immediately after signing it didn't actually

654
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 6: implement the terms and then start doing things which undermined

655
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 6: Iranian leverage in Lebanon, and then start surging more troops

656
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 6: to the region. It may it really seem like they

657
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 6: were just preparing to the ground to attack again in

658
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 6: the short term or medium term, and then from the

659
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 6: Iranian perspective, you might as well just initiate the war

660
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 6: now rather than let your leverage be depreciated. So for

661
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 6: all those reasons, it's hard to see how the trust

662
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 6: gap between the two sides it gets remedied here. But

663
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 6: I do think that there's one specific variable in between

664
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 6: which is not really promising, but it could work. And

665
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 6: I think it's what's working right now or attempting to

666
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 6: be put into effect. Is if the golf Arab states

667
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 6: issue a veto and say no, we will not allow

668
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 6: our bases to be used for war anymore, we won't

669
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 6: allow airspace to be used because we're going to be

670
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 6: destroyed if the war continues. And the whole premise of

671
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 6: their relationship with the US was that the US will

672
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 6: protect them at all times. They'll make sure that they're

673
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 6: basically Switzerland levels of peace going on here so that

674
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 6: the global economy, people can invest here, people can come

675
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 6: and live here, and so forth. And if they can't

676
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 6: defend us, then the relationship doesn't really work anymore. And

677
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 6: what's happening is the US keeps escalating the war. They

678
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 6: ran and these countries are taking a million missiles to

679
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,479
Speaker 6: the face and drones to the face every single day

680
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 6: of the day after the attacks and create a really

681
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 6: huge warning to Dubai and Cutter and other countries in

682
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 6: the region what could happen to them.

683
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 5: So if those countries issue a veto take really strongly

684
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 5: that they will not not let the war.

685
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 6: Continue, it very difficult for the US to continue, and

686
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 6: they will take a lot of the incentive for continuing out.

687
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 6: I don't think we're necessarily there yet, but that's the

688
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 6: only path that I could see that could help. And

689
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 6: you know, there are people in the US system, like

690
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 6: the more advanced camp of people who may not have

691
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 6: the upper hand, they could use that such a shift

692
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 6: to gain advantage and push forward their view of how

693
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 6: the war could end, because if you look at the

694
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 6: way the MU fell apart, it seems like the US

695
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 6: administration was not working on the same page. Advance seemed

696
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 6: to be in favor of pushing the deal forward, creating

697
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 6: a structure with Iran which were allowed to continue. And

698
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 6: then Rubio went to Lebanon and did something which really

699
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 6: undermined and worked at cross purposes of the deal, almost automatically.

700
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 6: So I think that that dynamic could be shifted if

701
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 6: the golf Arab states were to take a very firm,

702
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 6: unequivalcal position that the war cannot continue because they will

703
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 6: not survive if it does continue.

704
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: Lastly, maz I was wondering if you could help out

705
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: our friends over at Fox News who are a little

706
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 2: bit con fused about the way things have been going.

707
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to Fox host

708
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 2: Maria Bartiromo here and her confusion about the situation.

709
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 7: You know, Sentcom says that they will be outsized action

710
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 7: in retaliation, but I don't understand how it's possible that

711
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 7: Iran has the capabilities to fight this way and continue

712
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 7: to try to lash out at Gulf countries and US

713
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 7: military basis because the US has obliterated Iran's military and

714
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 7: the President continues to reiterate that.

715
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 4: Yes, and if you look.

716
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 8: At the numbers of missiles that they've been able to

717
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 8: fire off from the beginning of this war, you know,

718
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 8: late February, early March, and what they're able to do now,

719
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 8: it is very seriously degraded.

720
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 2: As they say, Mas, she's so close to getting it,

721
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 2: so close.

722
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, it's so funny because they keep in

723
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,240
Speaker 6: the Victoria quotes there were saying that the missile capacity

724
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 6: has been degraded, you know, actually hiring missiles at a

725
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 6: steady rate after the first few days of the war

726
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 6: continuously because their a whole strategy of the war is

727
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 6: they need to fight for a very long time. It's

728
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 6: a war of patrician so they missiles used will be

729
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 6: conserved and calibrated at a certain level to preserve the

730
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 6: ability to fire.

731
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 5: For like a year or two years or something like that, indefinitely.

732
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 6: What the Iranian military capacity was not obliterated, but the

733
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 6: war they did significant damage to leadership personnel and many

734
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 6: dozens of people were killed. They destroyed a lot of

735
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 6: civilian infrastructure. The schools were destroyed, the bridges and so forth,

736
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 6: and some military bases were hit, but Iran's primary and

737
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 6: also the navy was hit very hard, which Rubio and

738
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 6: so forth been talking about a lot too. But Iran

739
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 6: was up primarily known as an air power or naval power.

740
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 6: It's a missile power and asymmetric warfare power. So what

741
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,439
Speaker 6: they did was they built their missile bases into these

742
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,479
Speaker 6: mountains into the country. So they knew that they didn't

743
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,399
Speaker 6: have the ability to develop a large sophisticated air force

744
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 6: because they're under sanctions. They don't have access to the

745
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 6: huge supply chain you need to build F thirty five

746
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 6: or sixteen's. They also can really build high tech air

747
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 6: defenses for the same reason. But they did know that

748
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 6: they had geography as a tool, and they had a

749
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 6: very very large educated population of engineers and so forth,

750
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,760
Speaker 6: So they relied on tunneling and and neeering build bases

751
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 6: into these mountains, underground and so forth that will be

752
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 6: impervious to US air attacks. And they've been firing from

753
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 6: those bases throughout the war, and that's where they're firing

754
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 6: from today and the US air attacks. It's really unfortunate

755
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 6: if you think about the US conservation of US power,

756
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 6: because they effectively did was in the early days of

757
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 6: the war, they fired very expensive, very rare standoff munitions

758
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 6: which take years to produce, and they fired them basically

759
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 6: into solid granite. And at most what they did was

760
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 6: they disabled the entrances to these bases. But then within

761
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 6: forty eight hours or a week, both thozers came and

762
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 6: reopened the entrances and build bases are operating again. So basically,

763
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 6: you fired the extremely valuable missiles you need to deter

764
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 6: China and to deter Russia and so forth, fired into

765
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 6: rock basically just to delay Iranian missile capacity. And what

766
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 6: the Iranians did over the past month during the ceasefire,

767
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,720
Speaker 6: but more than a month, they excavated all the bases,

768
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 6: so their bases are operating in the level they have

769
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 6: been operating at.

770
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 5: Since the start of the war.

771
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 6: Now, so that's why you see these missile strikes being

772
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 6: so effective. And now also the US capacity, and I

773
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 6: mentioned earlier the radars in the region have been destroyed

774
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 6: or rendered inoperable, so the missiles are gang through further,

775
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 6: So what they're saying in the conversation.

776
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 5: It's really they've been lied to.

777
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 6: About the actual reality of how the war has been fought,

778
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 6: how much damage is done to Iran, how much capacity

779
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 6: Iran had, and how much waste was actually done during

780
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 6: the war. They just spent a lot of very vital

781
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 6: the US sets to delay and temporarily suppressed Irani missile fire,

782
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 6: did not destroyed because it's deep underground where it really

783
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:56,839
Speaker 6: cannot be neutralized from the air.

784
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of American arrogance at play here,

785
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,839
Speaker 2: not recognizing Iran as a significant industrial power, and Iran

786
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 2: is a significant scientific and technological power as well, and

787
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 2: that is certainly coming back to bite us now, Martaza,

788
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: great to see you, Thank you so.

789
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 1: Much, Thanks man.

790
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 5: Thanks guys goo' see.

791
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 2: So let's dig in deeper now to the global market

792
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 2: and oil specific perspective. We brought the news earlier that

793
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 2: the Houthies have announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia. John

794
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 2: Meerschremmer is just speaking to Chris Hedges about how significant

795
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 2: it would be if this action were taken to.

796
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 4: The global markets.

797
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 2: He in fact predicted just days ago that the Iranians

798
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: would be very interested in moving this direction. Let's take

799
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 2: a listen to what he had to say.

800
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 9: There were about twenty million barrels per day coming out

801
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 9: of the Golf on February twenty seventh. You know, when

802
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 9: people talk about twenty percent of the world's oil came

803
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 9: out of the Golf, that twenty percent represents about twenty

804
00:38:54,960 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 9: million barrels. And since the War star we've devolved to

805
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 9: a situation where seven million barrels are still coming out

806
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 9: of Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined. So it's only

807
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 9: in my opinion, about thirteen million barrels that have been

808
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 9: bottled up in the Gulf. Now we're those seven million

809
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 9: barrels coming out of. One is that Saudi Arabia is

810
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 9: sending probably somewhere on the order of five million barrels

811
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 9: out through the Red Sea, not through the Strait of Hormuz,

812
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 9: and I would guess that the UAE is sending out

813
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 9: close to two million barrels from Fujyra, which is a

814
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 9: UAE port on the Gulf of Oman. In other words,

815
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 9: it's outside of the Strait of Hormuz. So you have

816
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 9: this roughly seven million barrels of oil. Seven million out

817
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,799
Speaker 9: of the original twenty million that are still coming out

818
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 9: of the Persian Gulf. I think the Iranians have a

819
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 9: vested interest in shutting down the flow of oil through

820
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 9: the Red Sea, that's the Saudi Arabian oil, and shutting

821
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 9: down Fugyra. And there's some evidence they've already shut down Fugyra.

822
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 2: So, Sager, we've been talking about why there hasn't been

823
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: a complete disaster in the oil market. I mean, prices

824
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 2: are already pretty high. They're back up over four dollars

825
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 2: a gallon for American consumers today. But one of the

826
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 2: reasons why there's been a bit of a cushion is

827
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 2: because Saudi has been able to export.

828
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:39,879
Speaker 4: Some through the Red Sea.

829
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 2: That plus China has reduced their imports significant when we

830
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: would talk more about that in a moment, But if

831
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 2: that piece is going away, that could be highly significant,

832
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 2: especially as we're sort of scraping the bottom of the

833
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 2: barrel here in terms of our strategic petroleum reserve.

834
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:55,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's just like lay out the picture.

835
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 3: There's like two main reasons why gas is still not

836
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 3: at catastrophic levels. Although, oh, let's put see one up

837
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 3: here on the screen. I mean, as of this morning,

838
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,240
Speaker 3: gas is right back to four dollars a gallon nationally,

839
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 3: So it's not like, you know, people got a little

840
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,280
Speaker 3: bit of a reprieve around, Like I think the lowest

841
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 3: we saw I was like three eighty maybe three ninety.

842
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 4: Wonder per gown there. How the Freedom Fuel Network is

843
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 4: doing this morning?

844
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, we should check in, We should check in on

845
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 3: the Freedom Fuel Network. But we have four dollars a

846
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 3: gallon here nationally, and that's where things are now when

847
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 3: things have been cooled off. So there are two primary

848
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:27,800
Speaker 3: reasons that things did not go absolutely catastrophic. One was

849
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, as you just said, approximately four point five

850
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 3: million barrels per day that were coming out of the

851
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 3: Bob Albumande Strait that they were able to export. That's

852
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 3: roughly three to four percent of the world's oil supply,

853
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 3: which the Hooties now say they will blockade. And I

854
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 3: do think it's worth meditating on this, like why should

855
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 3: we even ticket Seriously, immediately, you know, I was looking

856
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 3: here for the reaction. I was like, wow, this is

857
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 3: a literal nightmare scenario. Of course, there's a lot of

858
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 3: people they're like, well, that would only assume that they

859
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 3: have the ability to do so, and I'm like, they

860
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,359
Speaker 3: do have the ability to do so they did it.

861
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 1: They literally did this years ago.

862
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 3: We bombed that living hell out of them, and we

863
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,760
Speaker 3: still were not able to stop the blockade. We both

864
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 3: Biden and Trump expended a serious amount of munitions, and

865
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 3: you know how the hoo Theis responded. They were able

866
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 3: to do so, and they even clipped an F thirty five,

867
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 3: let's not forget about that. So these are not just

868
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 3: some guys you know with RPGs in a cave like

869
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 3: this is some seriously capable gorilla force.

870
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 2: It also doesn't take that much because you're relying on

871
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 2: commercial shippers. I mean you've had sailors on these cargo

872
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 2: ships who have been killed, yeah many, And then you

873
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 2: have the insurance companies that are also saying, no, we're

874
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,879
Speaker 2: not going to ensure your cargo ship going through this

875
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 2: active war zone where a blockade.

876
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 4: Has been imposed.

877
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 2: So you kind of have you know, capitalism working against

878
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 2: you here as well. There's not going to be willing

879
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 2: to take the risk. And who could blame them. I mean,

880
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 2: if you're a sailor, one of these working classmen from

881
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 2: around the world who are staffing these ships, you want

882
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 2: to risk your life to run the blockade. I don't

883
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 2: think so, not at all. And you've had captains who

884
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 2: have actively been their companies that hey, you're going to

885
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: take this route and they said, no, I'm not doing that.

886
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:05,760
Speaker 4: So we will see some of that as well, exactly.

887
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 3: And then the secondary is China, and this is one

888
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 3: of the main focuses that we want to show over

889
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 3: and one let's put C two up here. For example,

890
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 3: Chinese imports are beginning to rebound sharply.

891
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 1: So why does this matter.

892
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 3: As you guys can see from this chart if you're watching,

893
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 3: is that China was importing roughly twelve million barrels per

894
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 3: day right before the beginning of the war. That plummeted

895
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 3: below six million barrels per day after the outbreak of

896
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 3: the war.

897
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:36,320
Speaker 1: Nobody really knows why.

898
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,399
Speaker 3: The general theory is that when oil was cheap, they

899
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 3: stocked up. They have a massive strategic petroleum reserve. But

900
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 3: one of the things that we kept hammering home here

901
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 3: is eventually they will have to buy some oil. They

902
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 3: may not resume the full twelve million barrel per day

903
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 3: purchase that they were at, but a resumption in their

904
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 3: price because of their sheer size for a massive oil

905
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 3: importing nation, means it will put significant significant pressure on

906
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 3: the global oil market. Oil is a global commodity, at

907
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 3: least for now before things get totally catastrophic and you

908
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 3: have to start doing crazy stuff. Well with the Chinese imports,

909
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 3: let's put C three back there on the screen. It

910
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 3: is the single most determinative factor whenever it comes to

911
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 3: the global oil market. And so if you have two

912
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 3: primary shocks that are already coming into a shocked system,

913
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 3: and what I mean by that is the five month

914
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 3: closure of the Strait of hormones or at least disruption

915
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 3: of the Strait of hormones, then you have the Red

916
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 3: Sea and then you have China. That is primarily why

917
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,280
Speaker 3: oil is not at two hundred dollars per barrel.

918
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 1: But if it resumes buying.

919
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 3: Quote, if China buys oil again with Gusto, and this

920
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 3: is when prices were in the sixty dollars range, he predicted.

921
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 3: This is Javier Blosso's the chief energy commodities analysts over

922
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg. He said it would push the price to

923
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 3: eighty dollars a barrel, so twenty dollars a barrel rise

924
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 3: just a resumption of oil. So just to give a Matt,

925
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 3: you know, give a picture. We are currently around ninety

926
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 3: as of this morning. Things are fluctuating, obviously because of

927
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:12,280
Speaker 3: the hoo They's announcement, because of the resumption of war,

928
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 3: or at least seeming like there's no memorandum of understanding.

929
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 3: And of course a reduction in what's happening. Ninety is

930
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 3: where put things gas right around four dollars, but if

931
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 3: you go to one, ten, one, thirty, one fifty, things

932
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 3: can get catastrophic very quickly. And then finally, really why

933
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 3: you know we should pay attention is, and I said, guys,

934
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,360
Speaker 3: I sent this this morning. I'm not sure which element

935
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,319
Speaker 3: it is, is that what we have currently is an

936
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 3: incredibly low stockpile, which I know we've talked about from

937
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 3: the strategic Petroleum Reserve, but secondary to that is not

938
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 3: just the petroleum reserve. It's crude oil inventories of what's

939
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 3: left in the United States, the slack in the system.

940
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 3: So if you take a look at this picture, you

941
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 3: can actually see crude oil only has about forty three

942
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 3: days of supply left in the United States. That is

943
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 3: the lowest inventory in the forty five years of history

944
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 3: of taking all of the of taking inventories. That lack

945
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 3: of slack is exactly why Trump buckled in the first place.

946
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:13,840
Speaker 3: Remember he said, I don't want to be Herbert Hoover.

947
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 3: That was higher than where we are today. So forty

948
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 3: three days left of supply. Again, I'm not an oil

949
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 3: commodities guy. I've tried to learn as much as I

950
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 3: can over the last several months. The reason I understand

951
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:29,439
Speaker 3: it is that obviously there's you know, there's a fluctuation

952
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 3: in how you produce oil. It's not exactly like a

953
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 3: one to one business. So you need that slack to

954
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 3: have like confidence in the market that it'll be there

955
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 3: when you order what you have. When all that gets

956
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 3: taken away, and if it runs to zero, that's when

957
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 3: stuff gets absolutely bonkers. That means just like you know,

958
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 3: for delivery time, you know, just in time delivery, except

959
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 3: it would be just basically no confidence in the market.

960
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 3: That's when export bands and all those other things might

961
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 3: come into play. Literal shortages, people just running out of stuff.

962
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 3: And maybe this is all, you know, hyperbolic. I can

963
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,799
Speaker 3: understand why someone would say that after the five months

964
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 3: of us talking about it, But I mean, at a

965
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 3: certain point, it's like this is the reason the Strategic

966
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 3: Patrolling Reserve existed in the first place, and to now

967
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 3: be at the lowest level since nineteen eighty three, you

968
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 3: just have no runway. And so I mean, we'll see,

969
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 3: that's really the only thing, because you can't look at

970
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:20,839
Speaker 3: the current situation and say, oh, yeah, Trump is going

971
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 3: to blame. He definitely could at any moment, like he

972
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,360
Speaker 3: did last time. I still think he probably has to,

973
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 3: just because of the logic of where we are. But

974
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 3: he got four Americans now who were killed just in

975
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 3: the last forty eight hours, seventy two hours something like that.

976
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 3: You have no you have low inventory. I mean, what

977
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 3: if they do ground it's possible, and if they do that,

978
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 3: it's it's over. There is no coming back from a

979
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 3: ground invasion of any kind. You can't just withdraw them

980
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 3: and then we take more casualties. So if we don't

981
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 3: talk them at least some point in the next two

982
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 3: three weeks, that's where we're going.

983
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,479
Speaker 2: Well, and here's the other piece we haven't even mentioned,

984
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:59,399
Speaker 2: which is Ukraine is hitting Russian oil infrastructure as hard

985
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 2: as they possible we can to try to, you know,

986
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,520
Speaker 2: create pain for the Russians, but inherently that's going to

987
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 2: create more pain for the global economy because these markets

988
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 2: are all completely intertwined. So again Javier blast As Chart

989
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 2: of the Day. Morgan Stanley reckons more than half of

990
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 2: Russian oil refinery capacity is down due to Ukrainian attacks. Typically,

991
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:24,440
Speaker 2: Russia is the world's second largest diesel exporter, normally around

992
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 2: eleven percent of global sea born trade. And so just

993
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 2: when we say it's a global commodity, what we mean

994
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:32,799
Speaker 2: is even if you have a country that is not

995
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 2: directly buying oil from Russia, the fact that Russia is

996
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,839
Speaker 2: producing and exporting oil is creating less pressure in the

997
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 2: market and keeping prices more in check because it's.

998
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 4: Being bought by somebody.

999
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 2: So when you have also these Ukrainian attacks paired together

1000
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 2: with it looks like China's increasing their buying paired together

1001
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 2: with Now we've got a full blockade in the in

1002
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 2: the Strait of Horbooz. Now we've got Yemen saying, hey,

1003
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,240
Speaker 2: we're going to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red See,

1004
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 2: this is all looking very grim.

1005
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 3: Now.

1006
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:05,839
Speaker 2: I don't think there's anyone in the world who could

1007
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 2: say this is the moment when the shit hits the

1008
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 2: fan right. But I keep coming back to what Trump

1009
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 2: said when he did Taco, when he.

1010
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 4: Said we've got a few weeks left.

1011
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 2: He has access to presumably the best information in the world.

1012
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 2: So if you're thinking to yourself that there's some other

1013
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 2: rabbit that he's going to be able to pull out

1014
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:26,840
Speaker 2: of a hat to lessen the pressure in the oil

1015
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 2: market and forestall what we know eventually at some point

1016
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 2: is going to happen, that would be an indication to

1017
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 2: you that he does not have another rabbit in the

1018
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 2: hat that he can pull out. That all of the

1019
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 2: things that could be done to keep prices as low

1020
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 2: as possible, which ain't that low to begin with, but

1021
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 2: as low as possible without things going to two hundred

1022
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:49,480
Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, that has all already been done. All

1023
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:52,880
Speaker 2: of those levers have already been pulled. So you know,

1024
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 2: we know certainly the clock is ticking. And when you

1025
00:49:56,160 --> 00:50:00,120
Speaker 2: go back to the Iranian strategy, this is when they

1026
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:02,760
Speaker 2: decided to move forward with negotiations and sign the MoU

1027
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 2: This was the logic that they put forward saga that

1028
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 2: they thought, even if you know we have some pressure

1029
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 2: release now, as long as the clock is ticking, we

1030
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 2: are getting closer to the time and pressure is building

1031
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 2: to the time when there will be massive global economic fallout.

1032
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 2: And I think if we look at that, if we

1033
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 2: look at the fact that they were able to you know,

1034
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 2: they were able to sell a bunch of oil, refresh

1035
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:29,760
Speaker 2: their coffers in terms of their finances, they were able

1036
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 2: to dig out a bunch of their missile cities and

1037
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 2: be able to prepare for the next escalatory attack.

1038
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 4: We were not able to do the same.

1039
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 2: You know, we didn't spin up manufacturing, we didn't referm

1040
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 2: the bases that had been destroyed throughout the region. They

1041
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 2: come into this new phase of the conflict actually relative

1042
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 2: to the US much stronger than they started the war

1043
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 2: between all of those pieces. So you know, that's the

1044
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 2: landscape that's facing all of us right now.

1045
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 3: I'm just looking even at the more recent strike information.

1046
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 3: So Kuwate is getting hammered in the last like three days,

1047
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:06,320
Speaker 3: so they've had huge oil hits, water desalination, and energy.

1048
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 3: There's pictures of backup generators that are all being driven

1049
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 3: around in Like when you start to see the government

1050
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 3: bring out the backup generator, not where I want to

1051
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:18,320
Speaker 3: be on the back of an eighteen wheeler truck. Well,

1052
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:22,359
Speaker 3: this country exported zero oil for thirty days. That's three

1053
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,720
Speaker 3: percent of the total supply of the world, five point

1054
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 3: six percent of the entire global oil reserve, much of

1055
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 3: which the production had to be taken offline because they

1056
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:35,320
Speaker 3: literally couldn't export anything. And now they're getting completely hammered

1057
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 3: and struck in terms of their infrastructure, where even if

1058
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:40,319
Speaker 3: the war ended, now they have to rebuild it, they

1059
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 3: have to do all this stuff to get it out there.

1060
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 3: That's just kuwait, and then we talked about Saudi Arabia.

1061
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 3: That's another four to five percent of the world's oil.

1062
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 3: Will it be blockade, We'll see, right, obviously, we'll cover

1063
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 3: it here for a couple of days. The Straight of

1064
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 3: horn Moves is basically closed. Yesterday literally just yesterday. Another

1065
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 3: tanker is on or sorry overnight, So while we were

1066
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 3: all sleeping, a tanker Greek ship got hit. Apparently there's

1067
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 3: like one Greek company which continues to try to run

1068
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:07,359
Speaker 3: the blockade. Everybody else is like, yeah, we're good, right,

1069
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 3: And so you have a trickle of the number of

1070
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 3: ships that are coming through, You've got ships that are

1071
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 3: being struck, you got oil, infrastructure, water, desalination, and then

1072
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:16,879
Speaker 3: Iran has a nuclear power plant, heead, I mean, how

1073
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 3: can you not look at all this and say we

1074
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 3: are on the precipice Right to the Trump and Hoover

1075
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 3: point whenever he was talking about the slack, I mean,

1076
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 3: this is one at least benefit to the world oil

1077
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:32,839
Speaker 3: inventory and patroleum reserve, and all that is heavily documented.

1078
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 3: You can go as we have preparing for the show.

1079
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:39,799
Speaker 3: Just go to the International Energy Agency's website.

1080
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 1: They will show you what the strategic.

1081
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 3: Persolu and reserve of all the participating nations is, how

1082
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 3: much they've released and how much is left. We have

1083
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 3: a few weeks left for what that initial strategic patrol

1084
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 3: and reserve release is. There's basically no more oil left

1085
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 3: in it for the critical operating levels. So there's nothing

1086
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 3: left between crude oil inventory and the strategic patroleum reserve.

1087
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 3: We know exacts actly where it will all come from.

1088
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 3: You can dial things up maybe in the US. But

1089
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 3: part of the problem too for Saudi Arabia, the closure

1090
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:10,800
Speaker 3: and for now the stoppage of straight up hornmooz oil,

1091
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 3: is that means that this inventory will go faster Because

1092
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 3: the Trump administration brags a lot about how we export

1093
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:19,640
Speaker 3: all this oil.

1094
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 1: We have been exporting a absolute shit pot of oil.

1095
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:24,359
Speaker 3: But that has got to that is going to be

1096
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 3: made up for in terms of orders from Japan, from Korea,

1097
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 3: from all of these other nations around it. We're all

1098
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 3: competing for our oil. And then you add Russia on

1099
00:53:33,680 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 3: top of that for all this diesel, and then natural

1100
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 3: gas in terms of Qatar and their inability to get

1101
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 3: so like all of the you know, the ground is

1102
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 3: set for a genuine crime. I mean, we're already living

1103
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:47,440
Speaker 3: in a crisis, but even more of a crisis in

1104
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 3: my opinion, and I think especially this is just and

1105
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 3: I try to emphasize this in our shows, but it

1106
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:56,240
Speaker 3: is genuinely important. A black swan event like a hurricane

1107
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 3: will break us like or not just us, somewhere around

1108
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 3: the world, who knows, some nation, tsunami, tornado, you know,

1109
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 3: whatever they call it, the cyclone or something, it's over.

1110
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 3: Because if you take something like that off, then the

1111
00:54:09,200 --> 00:54:12,640
Speaker 3: slack for Japan, for Korea, for any these other countries,

1112
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 3: that's when you're broken. You have nothing left to ship

1113
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 3: you right, all of the naval assets are in the Gulf.

1114
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 3: We didn't even bring this up in the A block

1115
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 3: in terms of a potential crisis, A bunch of warplanes

1116
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:27,919
Speaker 3: from Germany and from rest of the world. They're going

1117
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 3: to the Middle East, which means if some stuff kicks

1118
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:33,640
Speaker 3: off in Ukraine and Russia, we got nothing there. It's

1119
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 3: gone same with all the carrier strike groups and all

1120
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 3: the munitions have all been basically stripped from pey Com

1121
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:43,800
Speaker 3: or from from Korea, from all these air force bases.

1122
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 3: There is nothing that is currently there that is not

1123
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 3: nailed to the ground. And so that just means, like

1124
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 3: you know, everyone thinks things will kick off with just

1125
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 3: because of Iran. It definitely might, you know, is what

1126
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:55,839
Speaker 3: we're saying. But I actually think there will be some

1127
00:54:55,920 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 3: Katrina style event, not maybe either here in the United

1128
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 3: States or somewhere else in the world world, or potentially

1129
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 3: some sort of you know, taie want situe.

1130
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,480
Speaker 1: Nobody knows North Thorea. It could be anything, and that.

1131
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 3: Is what actually will break the entire system, because that's

1132
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:11,719
Speaker 3: when when you have nothing left, that's when the whole

1133
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 3: world will change.

1134
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 2: We are redlining the global economy right now. We are

1135
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 2: pushing it to its absolute limits. We are taking out

1136
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 2: any sort of slack or buffer so that if you know,

1137
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:26,640
Speaker 2: if I mean, if we just continue in this direction,

1138
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:30,759
Speaker 2: it's unsustainable. But if we have some sort of a

1139
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 2: catastrophic weather event or other event that is unforeseen. Although

1140
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,480
Speaker 2: the weather events are kind of foreseen because we are

1141
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:40,440
Speaker 2: in this massive Almino cycle, but in any case something

1142
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 2: that is unforeseen, then we will be in a world

1143
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 2: of trouble. Last one I'll put up on the screen.

1144
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:49,880
Speaker 2: See six rent crude crossing ninety dollars a barrel. It

1145
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 2: has now gone down to like it's at like eighty

1146
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 2: nine this morning, eighty eight. And this is the thing

1147
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,200
Speaker 2: that I'm like, it makes no sense to me, right,

1148
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking and all of these numbers. They're

1149
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 2: living apparently off of the hopium of this like, oh,

1150
00:56:04,040 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 2: there's some ten day negotiation that's going on, and so

1151
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 2: the stock market is up and the oil prices have

1152
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:10,399
Speaker 2: ticked back down a little bit.

1153
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 4: I don't know.

1154
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 2: I hope, I hope their hopium is justified, but they

1155
00:56:13,960 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 2: seem to ignore every other indicator. If there's even one

1156
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 2: thing that's slightly positive, will be like, I think this

1157
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:21,680
Speaker 2: is going to work out, And I guess they're in

1158
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:24,680
Speaker 2: part betting on you know that all the other traders

1159
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:26,800
Speaker 2: and all of the other players will also seize on

1160
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:30,279
Speaker 2: that hopium and act accordingly. But at some point with oil,

1161
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 2: you know, there is a reality here of what exists

1162
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,759
Speaker 2: and what doesn't exist, and what is getting into the

1163
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:38,640
Speaker 2: global economy and what is not. So there has to

1164
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 2: be a reckoning at some point. It's not like you know, SpaceX,

1165
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,120
Speaker 2: where you can just have the theory of the possibility

1166
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 2: indefinitely all those SpaceX is not doing all that well either, right.

1167
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:48,960
Speaker 3: But and even if we do get out of this,

1168
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 3: we're just all going to be paying three point fifty

1169
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,000
Speaker 3: a gallon for forever, I mean, at this point, for

1170
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:56,920
Speaker 3: the rest of Trump's presidency. So it's not going down,

1171
00:56:57,200 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 3: you know, significantly anytime too. Actually, even saw with the

1172
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 3: memoriam of understanding how loaded it get three eighty right,

1173
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 3: I mean, that's a preview of what it's going to

1174
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:07,879
Speaker 3: be like for a long long time.