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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing, so.

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting it to cash stop.

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Speaker 1: That's all. We'll see the most gamblers when they go

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Speaker 1: to gamble, they go to wind. That's incredible. Big bank,

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Speaker 1: small banks. I like to make money. All right, this

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Speaker 1: is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 3: You want to pull.

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Speaker 1: And we are way Oh what's up? Everybody? Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast. I am your host, Chris Raybon,

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Speaker 1: and this is your NFL Week eight betting preview. Today,

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Speaker 1: of course, we'll build our Sunday six pack of against

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Speaker 1: the spread bets with the help of my co host,

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky and Stuck. I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you a little story. Had one of my boys

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Speaker 1: over to why the Niners game. He's a big Niners fan,

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Speaker 1: so I've been watching college football on Saturdays. So I

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Speaker 1: asked him about the Volunteers game because I knew that

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Speaker 1: a bunch of his boys went there. So I'm like, yo,

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Speaker 1: did you have Tennessee? And he's like he's like, yeah, man,

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Speaker 1: I had Tennessee. I'm like, what do you mean, day Won,

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Speaker 1: Why are you so upset? He's like, nah, I meant

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Speaker 1: the Titans. And that's how I found out that you

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Speaker 1: bet the Titans again. So I'm here for you. How

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Speaker 1: you doing, brother, they got to ten, I had to

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Speaker 1: play them. I mean I would play them again. There

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Speaker 1: they're up ten seven in the second half.

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Speaker 3: This is what you get with the desperate team. Up

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Speaker 3: ten seven in the second half. D is playing really

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Speaker 3: well and they go forward on fourth and two in

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Speaker 3: their own territory in the third quarter and they just

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Speaker 3: run a basic dive, gets stuffed and the game gets flipped.

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Speaker 3: But I once I got to ten and Will left,

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Speaker 3: Levis wasn't playing, I had to play it. Out of

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, you know, minus one, I have

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Speaker 3: a bunch of cheap money on. I was like, I

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Speaker 3: think this launched me two and a half three, two

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Speaker 3: of the biggest betting groups in the world hit him

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Speaker 3: on Sunday with the limb it's for the roof. It

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Speaker 3: closes almost three and their entire team gets hurt. I mean,

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Speaker 3: and even worse, you didn't game plan for those guys

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Speaker 3: being out. So I mean, it was just another one

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Speaker 3: of those Sundays. But ready to roll, ready to get hot.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's do it. We'll jump into our Thursday

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Speaker 1: night football previews, and of course we'll go straight to

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Speaker 1: the Sunday six pack. Let's start with this Thursday night game.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: Vikings at the Rams. Plus three is the number. The

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Speaker 1: total is forty eight. This is a tough spot, I

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Speaker 1: think for Minnesota on the short turn, not so much

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Speaker 1: for going on the road. But as our guy Kerner

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Speaker 1: points out, team's goin to struggle after play in the Lions.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it's just because the Lions are

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Speaker 1: so physical and just so good, but I could see

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Speaker 1: the Vikings kind of getting off to a kind of

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Speaker 1: a slow start. But I do I do think that

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Speaker 1: they're they're gonna have some advantages on offense. But then

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Speaker 1: the Rams there, they look like they're getting back Cooper Cup.

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Speaker 1: So I think this, I think this line is about

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Speaker 1: right at three. What say you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I took some three small. I mean I hate

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Speaker 3: Thursday Night football mainly on the spot. I mean, maybe

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Speaker 3: there's an outside chance in Nakua. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 3: think he's gonna play, but his practice window open, so

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Speaker 3: you never know. He could be out there, but Cooper

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Speaker 3: couple we back TJ. Hockinson on the other side, he

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Speaker 3: could also be back. So there's some injury on certain here.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, it's a tough spot for the Vikings. They

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Speaker 3: put everything into that game against Detroit, lose in the

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Speaker 3: final seconds. Now you have a quick turnaround out on

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Speaker 3: the West Coast against a desperate Rams team. I mean,

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Speaker 3: if you look at the standings, I mean they've they've

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Speaker 3: been ravaged by injuries. About a tough year, but you know,

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Speaker 3: win this game and they're right back in the thick

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Speaker 3: of it in the division, especially when you consider all

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Speaker 3: of the injuries that the forty nine ers are dealing with.

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Speaker 3: I just took the three year. It's not nothing strong.

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Speaker 3: Worry about the kickers though, like Minnesota will records money.

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Speaker 3: The Rams like they can't take their kicking situation. Their

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Speaker 3: special teams are a mess. But I did take the

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Speaker 3: three small although it's a home dog, home dog, is

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Speaker 3: no chance. I've never seen a three week stretch like this.

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Speaker 3: I think road favorites over the last three weeks are

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Speaker 3: seventeen and two against the spread.

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Speaker 1: It kind of worries me because we know Minnesota is

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Speaker 1: the better team obviously, you know, probably got to the

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Speaker 1: peak of their market last week as a favorite over

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Speaker 1: the Whys, who are just kind of stampeding through the

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Speaker 1: entire league right now. But what worries me with the

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Speaker 1: Rams is you mentioned you know, their offense is in

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Speaker 1: dire need and they really need, like these red zone

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Speaker 1: issues to kind of regress to the meat. I just

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Speaker 1: worry about this Ram offense. Every week. It seems like

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Speaker 1: they should be putting up more points, and every week

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Speaker 1: it's just underwhelming and they're letting teams back. And I

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Speaker 1: mean the Raiders out gained the Rams last week. You

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Speaker 1: know you talk about I better hope they put some

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Speaker 1: They were looking ahead to this game because if the

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Speaker 1: Raiders you can get it in the end zone just

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Speaker 1: one time, they could have beat the Rams. So I'm

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Speaker 1: probably laying off this team until I see guys back.

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Speaker 1: And like Whittington, he only played he ran no routes

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Speaker 1: last week and now they're saying he's gonna run more routes.

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Speaker 1: But like in place of who, there's some sums little

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Speaker 1: up with his offense.

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Speaker 3: They're feisty. As an underdog with McVeigh and Stafford, you

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Speaker 3: always have a shot so I took the three on principle.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's crazy we're kind of talking about

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Speaker 1: the offense, because really the defense is what should be

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Speaker 1: the more the bigger concern. I don't know if I

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Speaker 1: wonder if it's gonna be like I get right game

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Speaker 1: for Minnesota. I don't think I agree with you on Darnode.

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Speaker 1: I mean, looking a little like Sam Bradford in there

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Speaker 1: at that throat a branch. Probably probably the difference in

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Speaker 1: the game last week, but you had no play for me.

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Speaker 1: I would need to I would need a larger number.

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Speaker 1: I don't feel comfortable even with the with the three

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Speaker 1: three and a half. We're out there too, I think

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Speaker 1: earlier in the week. All right, so stuck, you like

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Speaker 1: the Rams plus three small? No play for me. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to the week eight Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: Thursday for actions. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: All right, three to three week for us, last week

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Speaker 1: two and one for me, one and two for you,

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Speaker 1: thirty to twelve. Stuck, you got some catching up to do.

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Speaker 1: Let's go.

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Speaker 3: Let's getting about five straight sweeps.

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Speaker 1: Hey, I mean it's it's at least two or three

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Speaker 1: are doable. I think I think I got there, so

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Speaker 1: it's definitely doable. But I'm a first this week. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to say hello Darkness, our old friend, because with

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Speaker 1: my first pick of the week eight Sunday six, going

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Speaker 1: with the Cleveland Browns plus nine and a half versus

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Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens. Anything over eight, I like in this spot,

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Speaker 1: I think the market is underrating Cleveland. Finally, I think

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Speaker 1: we can finally say the market is truly underrating Cleveland

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Speaker 1: because we don't have to worry about Deshaun Watson, who

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Speaker 1: was efficient last week, but he's been a huge liability,

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Speaker 1: which I'll get to in a second, but before we

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Speaker 1: get into the quarterback, let's look at what's gonna be

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Speaker 1: around him. Cleveland got back right tackle Jack conk Win

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. Jidrick Wills the weft tackle.

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Speaker 1: They got him back about months ago. So that's big

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Speaker 1: because you were playing Dewan Jones, James Hudson, Zack Ziner

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Speaker 1: at tackle. In terms of PFF grade amongst seventy nine tackles,

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Speaker 1: Dwan Jones ninth worst, Hudson eighth worst, Zenter worst of

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Speaker 1: seventy nine. They also activated Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if he gonna be back this week,

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Speaker 1: but they didn't just designate them. Yeah, they didn't just

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Speaker 1: designate him, They actually activated him, so he has a

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Speaker 1: good shot to play. So this offensive line could be

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Speaker 1: at least back to average, you know, maybe because it's

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Speaker 1: it's been really bad. Of course, they got Nick chubbed

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Speaker 1: back last week handled you know, double digit touches, so

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Speaker 1: that might increase a little bit more this week.

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Speaker 3: It should, he only had they didn't. He barely touched

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Speaker 3: the ball in the second half and Stefans he said

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Speaker 3: they wanted to just make sure that he was okay,

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Speaker 3: and he got out of this week unscathed and looked good.

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Speaker 3: So his workload should increase this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you're gonna need Listen, Baltimore an excellent run defense,

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Speaker 1: we know that, so you're gonna need some some of

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Speaker 1: that Chubb physicality, you know, to stay on schedule. But

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Speaker 1: I think the real reason that Cleveland is underrated here

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Speaker 1: is because the passing offense could go from one of

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Speaker 1: the worst all time to serviceable. At least, Cleveland's gonna

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Speaker 1: start Jamis Winston at quarterback, and that's big because first

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Speaker 1: of all, DTR who they had active as a second

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Speaker 1: quarterback last week with Winston as the emergency. If you

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Speaker 1: go look at eighty quarterbacks with at least one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dropbacks since twenty twenty one, dtr Is seventy

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Speaker 1: seventh of those eighty in EPA per dropback Jameis Winston twenty. First,

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Speaker 1: you look at fifty three quarterbacks with at least four

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Speaker 1: hundred dropbacks over that same span, Deshaun Watson fiftieth of

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Speaker 1: fifty three in EPA per dropback, Jameis Winston sixteenth. So

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Speaker 1: I don't think Jameis Winston is even necessarily anything more

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Speaker 1: than average, but he's put up above average EPA per

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Speaker 1: play numbers in you know, limited action ever since that

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Speaker 1: thirty interception season, and Deshaun Watson until last week, was

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Speaker 1: one of the literal worst quarterbacks of all time and

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Speaker 1: his passing offense was one of the worst of all time.

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Speaker 1: So this is big now Nadjoku wins to have him

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Speaker 1: to throw to, even though he traded Cooper Nadjoku ten

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Speaker 1: of fourteen for seventy six in a touch last week,

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Speaker 1: Baltimore bottom four and Dvoa against tight end, so it

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Speaker 1: should be some matchup advantages there and then Baltimore defense

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Speaker 1: on a quick turn. Marlon Humphrey's banged up at corner,

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Speaker 1: so this might be a better spot for Jerry Judy.

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Speaker 1: Dtr only targeted Judy once on twenty four dropbacks. Winston

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Speaker 1: when he came in, targeted Judy thirty six percent of time.

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Speaker 1: So if Humphrey is banged up or misses the game,

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Speaker 1: that's big because Judy can go inside and out, as

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Speaker 1: can Elijah Moore, but he's not really a factor these days.

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Speaker 1: But I think that humphrey injury looms large. And on

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Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, Zave Flowers also a

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Speaker 1: little bit banged up. Baltimore's number one receiver, he's dealing

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Speaker 1: with an ankle, got it quick turn for him as well,

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Speaker 1: and Cleveland's defense getting a lot healthier, getting back to

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Speaker 1: that unit that was top two last year. Miles Garrett

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Speaker 1: off the injury report. It looks like Denzel Ward off

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Speaker 1: the injury report. Juan Thornhill and Grant Delpit, the two

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Speaker 1: very good safeties, returned last week. So this Cleveland defense

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Speaker 1: at home divisional matchup, and just don't underestimate, like the

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Speaker 1: hope like just to like Deshaun. I know they like

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, they said all the right things, but it

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Speaker 1: was just such a struggle. And I think Winston just

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Speaker 1: by not being Watson or dtr which they've had to

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Speaker 1: start both of those guys all. But you know Flaco

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Speaker 1: for those magical five six games, whatever it was, It's

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Speaker 1: just been a struggle. So I think the defense. I

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Speaker 1: think he had a really good effort from the defense,

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Speaker 1: and you know, Baltimore on the quick turn a little

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Speaker 1: banged up. I think this is just way too many points.

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Speaker 1: And we know that Lamar Jackson struggles a little bit

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Speaker 1: with these larger point spread. So give me the Cleveland

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Speaker 1: Browns plus nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I played this, love it. This would have been

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Speaker 3: one of my picks. If you didn't take it. Lamar

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Speaker 3: is a favorite of seven plus by by thirteen eighteen

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Speaker 3: and one against the spread forty one point nine percent.

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Speaker 3: This is not a great spot for the Ravens. They

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Speaker 3: won five straight. They're on a short week for their

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Speaker 3: second straight road game. If there are a bunch of

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Speaker 3: emotional games in a row like you look back, like

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Speaker 3: the Bills, the Bengals, the Commanders, the Bucks. In primetime,

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Speaker 3: it could be a little bit emotionally drained. And you

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Speaker 3: mentioned the Browns defense is healthy. They changed play callers,

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Speaker 3: and I let that was the game plan. I was

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Speaker 3: expecting playing playing into their strengths last week against the

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Speaker 3: Bengals until Watson got hurt. Winston now gives them more upside.

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Speaker 3: It's a couple point upgrade. I mean, Watson was dead

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Speaker 3: last and adjusted EPA per play, he was worse than

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Speaker 3: Levis thirty four point six percent success rate. And Jamis

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Speaker 3: is a dog.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people forget. You can go out, you

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Speaker 1: can see practice, you can nicknack this, that paddy wack.

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Speaker 3: Give a dog a bone.

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Speaker 1: The sun. Watson is gonna turn it on. He always

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Speaker 1: gonna find a way to shine when the lights come on.

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Speaker 3: I mean, James is a favorite you never want to back.

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Speaker 3: He's eight and nineteen against the spread as an underdog

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Speaker 3: of more than three points, nineteen ten and one against

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Speaker 3: the spread, sixty five and a half percent, covering by

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Speaker 3: four and a half points per game. I like the spot.

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Speaker 3: Here for my first pick in the second overall of

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Speaker 3: the week eight Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

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Speaker 3: Miami Dolphins minus three at home against that was on

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Speaker 3: a cross, I'd go to minus one twenty five on.

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Speaker 3: This doesn't really matter for the contest, but I think

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins are significantly under died here. I'm assuming too

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Speaker 3: is gonna go back, come back, but with my injury

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Speaker 3: locked two will be get ruled out somehow and will

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Speaker 3: be Tim Boyle in there. I assume.

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Speaker 1: Even does so.

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Speaker 3: Now there, you can't expect a little bit of a

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Speaker 3: drop off. You can price that in with two of

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Speaker 3: coming back after such a long left coming back from

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Speaker 3: a concussion. But you know, maybe half point point before

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Speaker 3: the season, when these two teams were healthy, I would

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Speaker 3: have had this spread around a touchdown. And Miami's been

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Speaker 3: so bad on offense that I think you're getting a

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Speaker 3: lot of value here. I mean to with and their

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Speaker 3: offense is fully healthy now across the board, offensive line, weapons,

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Speaker 3: backfield too. Obviously knows how to run this offense, and

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Speaker 3: how do you stop? How do you slow down to it?

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Speaker 3: You got to get pressure on it. Cardinals can't do that,

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Speaker 3: and they just lost Gardact too. I mean they're down.

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Speaker 3: They've lost now two edge rushers, two of their intier

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Speaker 3: defensive line, and I mean even Murphy bunting it doesn't

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Speaker 3: really matter how much he got hurt. I mean, their

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Speaker 3: secondary is bad. They can't get any pressure. This defense

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Speaker 3: is horrendous. It's the only unit in the league allowing

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Speaker 3: a success rate over fifty percent. It's in a league

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Speaker 3: that the Panthers are in for what it's reth. Miami's

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Speaker 3: defense is actually playing going under the raidar and they've

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Speaker 3: played some bad quarterbacks. But they're one of five teams

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Speaker 3: allowing success rate under forty percent. And maybe they get

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Speaker 3: Agba back, maybe they get Holland back, they could get

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Speaker 3: a bit healthier. And it's also just a terrible spot

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Speaker 3: for the Cardinals. Short week, traveling across the country, and

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Speaker 3: they're kind of fulls gold what the Cardinals have done

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Speaker 3: this year. I mean they're four and three. Excuse me there,

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Speaker 3: what are the Cardinals three and four?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Three and four. They had a one point win and

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Speaker 3: a comeback against San Francisco because the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 3: had their kicker get hurt, and then a two point

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Speaker 3: win over the Chargers. They should have lost that game.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you go back to the first half, they

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Speaker 3: throw a pick, the pick gets fumbled and they recover it.

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Speaker 3: The Chargers go down the field hit a long touchdown

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Speaker 3: fumble through the end zone. Later in that game, the

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Speaker 3: Cardinals have a touchdown driver, they fumble and it's somehow

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Speaker 3: they recovered. They recovered all three key fumbles in the game.

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Speaker 3: I thought Harball made some bad coaching decisions on fourth

299
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Speaker 3: down that game as well, But that was another two

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Speaker 3: point win. And you know they're one really convincing when

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Speaker 3: came against the Rams, and just a great spot when

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Speaker 3: the Rams were basically playing with their practice squad. Their

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Speaker 3: other losses game by twenty eight, twenty one, six and seven.

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Speaker 3: And this is when you want to play two in

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins when they play a bad team. This is

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Speaker 3: what the Dolphins do went healthy. They dominate bad teams

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Speaker 3: to a seventeen and ten against the spread verse teams

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Speaker 3: under five hundred sixty three percent covered by almost five

309
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Speaker 3: points per game as a favorite in those spots fifteen

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Speaker 3: and seven against the spread sixty eight percent. So there's

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Speaker 3: just no reason why this Dolphins offense shouldn't cook against

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Speaker 3: the Cardinals, even if there's a little rust and a

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Speaker 3: slight production dip out of Tua. Cardinals can't cover, they

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Speaker 3: can't get pressure, they have injuries on the defensive side,

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Speaker 3: of the ball. So yeah, it's just a good spot Situationally,

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Speaker 3: So I like the Dolphins here playing three at home.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think this line should be closer to

318
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Speaker 3: like five or six.

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Speaker 1: Big advantage for the Dolphins here is they're explosive. Like

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Speaker 1: now if two is back, they're explosive. They can get

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Speaker 1: ahead of the Cardinals. And the Cardinals really what's kind

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Speaker 1: of going a little bit under talked about is that

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Speaker 1: if the Cardinals can't run, it gets very shaky. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray hasn't equipsed two hundred and fourteen passing yards

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Speaker 1: since Week two. That was the only time he did it.

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Speaker 1: He's not doing to ring the ball downfield consistently again,

327
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Speaker 1: looks like disinterested on many routes. Right, He's not separating

328
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Speaker 1: on every like consistently. Like it's sometimes they're sometimes not Kyle.

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Speaker 1: Something something's not unlocked, and it has to be you know,

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Speaker 1: you have to start looking at Kyler because you look

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Speaker 1: at Cliff with Jade Daniels and not saying anything away

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Speaker 1: from Jane Daniels, but I mean now we're just getting

333
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Speaker 1: Kyler oh new system, second year in this system, full

334
00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:04,360
Speaker 1: full off season, you know, no injury and it's still

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Speaker 1: just just not looking good. It's not looking good.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Dolphins also get they're getting pressure up the middle

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Speaker 3: in the interior. That's one way that you really shut

338
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Speaker 3: down Kyler.

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Speaker 1: All right, for my second pick and the third overall

340
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Speaker 1: in the week eight Sunday six pack, going with the

341
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Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys plus four and a half at the San

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Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers. And this is this comes down

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Speaker 1: to the spot the Cowboys coming off of buye, had

344
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Speaker 1: to sit around for two weeks, listening to all the

345
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Speaker 1: talking heads call them soft, listening to their former Hall

346
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Speaker 1: of Fame quarterback calling out the receivers. Just you know,

347
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Speaker 1: Jerry Jones getting getting into arguments with media like just

348
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Speaker 1: they're just kind of chomping at the bit here ready

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Speaker 1: to go. Meanwhile, San Francisco, you mentioned it earlier. What's

350
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Speaker 1: their offense going to be this weekend? But Michael Parsons

351
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Speaker 1: has a chance to return, Jerry Jones says, he's a

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Speaker 1: game time decision. I feel like Jerry Jones is kind

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Speaker 1: of desperate, and I don't know how realistic it is

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Speaker 1: for Mike at a play, but he's got a shot.

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Speaker 1: But that's assume he doesn't play. We already don't see

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Speaker 1: him see is out still out for the Niers. Brandon

357
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 1: Ayuk is now out torn a cl So that's their

358
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Speaker 1: wide receiver one and and they're and they're taught running back.

359
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Speaker 1: Just looking at Rock Perdy who's been kind of winging

360
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Speaker 1: it and making some just kind of making some bad decisions,

361
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Speaker 1: but bailing himself out just by you know, getting some

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Speaker 1: crazy luck and some crazy throws down and he's great.

363
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Speaker 1: I don't get me wrong, you know I love Rock Purty,

364
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,360
Speaker 1: but a little shake heer with you know, these kind

365
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 1: of the receivers in and out of the lineup, and

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Speaker 1: I haven't loved the decision making it all times for him,

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Speaker 1: and I haven't love you. And some of the play can,

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Speaker 1: but you can McCaffrey alone. That's over a third of

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Speaker 1: Rock Perty's career targets, yards and touchdowns. If Deebo misses

370
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Speaker 1: and he was in the hospital into Monday with pneumonia,

371
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Speaker 1: so I mean hopefully hopefully he uh gets better as

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Speaker 1: soon as possible. But if he missed it a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, yeah, I mean that's nothing. Yeah, the moment

374
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Speaker 1: joke about you need lungs to play football, uh so

375
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,199
Speaker 1: if Deebo misses, now you're talking about over half of

376
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Speaker 1: Purdy's career production in targets, yards and touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: Just a flexibility of the offense without Debo, it's a

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Speaker 3: whole different offense. We've seen that in the past, and

379
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Speaker 3: not without maybe still no Jennings, Kittles, banged up Kittles.

380
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Speaker 1: Bang up Coddley. They number four is banged up.

381
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Speaker 3: You could literally you could have pearsall came straight off

382
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Speaker 3: the first first game, coming.

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Speaker 1: Back from getting shot. This dude runs around on eighty

384
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Speaker 1: four percent of the dropbacks they talked about. You know,

385
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Speaker 1: he was he was struggling a little bit with conditioning,

386
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Speaker 1: but he had to be out there. Targeted five times

387
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 1: for twenty one yards, three catches for twenty one yards,

388
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Speaker 1: seven yards per catch, four point two per target. The

389
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,160
Speaker 1: separation just wasn't there.

390
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 3: So were the one to two last week?

391
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ronnie Bell, well, no, Ronnie Bell kind of vomited

392
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,959
Speaker 1: on on the goal line, but Purdy got the touchdown instead.

393
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,360
Speaker 3: Pierce cowing Right, the one to two last week had

394
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 3: zero career catches.

395
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Speaker 1: Yep, yep. Last week yep. And then and then you got,

396
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Speaker 1: I mean, Ronnie Bell drops everything he was at one

397
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 1: point he was benched. I think he was a healthy

398
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,919
Speaker 1: scratcher at one point. Now he may have to be

399
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: in the rotation. I think this is a big problem.

400
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Speaker 1: And this is when you start to see Rock Purdy

401
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,159
Speaker 1: look a little bit more. You ready, this is a

402
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: game where you know, especially because everyone so down on

403
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, if Rock Purty struggles, and I think he will,

404
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 1: everyone's gonna start talking about this system quarterback. Then again,

405
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: it's not true. I think Rock Party does have talent

406
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 1: and he does add to this offense in a way

407
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,120
Speaker 1: that Jimmy g and all these other guys never did

408
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 1: with some of his movements, some of the things and

409
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 1: and just uh some of his accuracy and things like that.

410
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Speaker 1: But this is when you start to this is when

411
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Speaker 1: you start to see bad Party. We saw it first

412
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Speaker 1: stretch last year when all the guys were out, uh

413
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: you know, around mid season. I think there was that

414
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 1: Browns game, that Vikings game back to back, and I

415
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 1: think there was another loss in there. But what this is, yeah, exactly,

416
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Speaker 1: so don't I mean knowing positive is you got Trent

417
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 1: as long as Chrung wins is gon ejected again, at

418
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 1: least you have him but uh, you know, they'll probably

419
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: be better than last week, just based on the fact

420
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: that at least Shanahan could game plan for this. But

421
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: I you know, shit, he gets a little cute and

422
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 1: doing some odd things. I think he's going like too

423
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 1: deep in his bag sometimes and it it's just it's

424
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:02,679
Speaker 1: not really working out with the guys he has on

425
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Speaker 1: the field and with the way Perdy kind of makes decisions,

426
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 1: and like there sometimes there's just like not hot the

427
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 1: right hot reads and sometimes you're just odd route combinations

428
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 1: and weird personnel running the route. So I don't know,

429
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 1: I don't know what's up with Shanahan. He needs to

430
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 1: simplify it. But it's just a tough spot here, especially

431
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 1: with the Cowboys coming off of buy and really being

432
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: able to to kind of dig in here. Uh, and

433
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 1: you look at the Dallas offense. I still think this

434
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: Dallas offense is is decent. You know, Dak Prescott getting

435
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 1: all out of flak in the media, but ceedee Lamb

436
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 1: is you know, he started the year a little bit slow,

437
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: wasn't playing as many snaps. I think I think you

438
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 1: get a great effort from Lamb after he got called

439
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 1: out from you know, dogging it on routes from Troy Aikman.

440
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: Tolbert's ascending.

441
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 3: Uh.

442
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 1: You know, Turpin has some that you get hit the

443
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 1: hand the ball in his hands, he has some pop

444
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 1: so ferguson his back. So I still think this to end.

445
00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: And they're using Dawdle over ze which is wait for

446
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: their you know, rushing efficiency and for their catching out

447
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 1: of the backfield. So I think Dallas offense will be

448
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: fine here. They had a couple of weeks to game plan.

449
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: Remember last year Mike McCarty off the buy actually did

450
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: some really good things. I think they stopped the Rams

451
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 1: like forty three twenty and that's been a trend with

452
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy off the buy thirteen three and one against

453
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: the spread eighty one percent in his career, covering by

454
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: six points per game. According to Action Labs, three and

455
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 1: one against the spread with the Cowboys and Dak Prescott

456
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,239
Speaker 1: on the road off a loss is eleven to four

457
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: and one against the spread seventy four percent, including three

458
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: and one on the road. As a dog off a loss,

459
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: and you look at underdogs historically, five hundred are better.

460
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 1: Cowboys are three and three five underdogs five hundred are

461
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 1: better that scored fewer than ten points in their last game,

462
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 1: which the Cowboys did in that loss to the Lions.

463
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: Seventy seven and thirty nine, sixty six percent against the

464
00:24:56,320 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 1: spread over the last two decades, covering by under a

465
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: field goal per game, So I think Dallas gets it

466
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 1: through revenge for that forty two to ten thumping and

467
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: all those playoff losses. Here just a really tough spot

468
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: for the Niners. So give me Cowboys plus four and

469
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 1: a half. It to look at like unless their injury

470
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 1: situation drastically improved, it's looking like anything above a field

471
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: goal situation. But I would prefer to get at least

472
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: a four for now, just because it's it's it's still Wednesday.

473
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 3: I would have this around around a touchdown if both

474
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 3: teams are fully healthy. I really think that with all

475
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: these injuries, it's close to like a four to three

476
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 3: to four point.

477
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: It's over, yeah, but it's at least a field goal,

478
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: I think. And then that.

479
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 3: Cowboys coming off of a bye like this this spread.

480
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: I also like the under here. I think point should

481
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 3: come into premium. Like the Cowboys can't really run the ball,

482
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: which is how you want to attack San Francisco. I

483
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 3: do expect San Francisco's defense to show up, knowing their

484
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 3: offense is so shorthanded. San Francisco, They're gonna play slow.

485
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 3: I expected to lean on the run game, which you

486
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 3: can a bit. You can do a bit against the Cowboys.

487
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 3: The Cowboys defense also should be healthier. Even if Parsons

488
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 3: doesn't come back, they should get some other key guys back.

489
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 3: I think the Dallas defense responds after that. Look at

490
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 3: the weapons San Francisco's throwing too. If all the guys

491
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 3: who I think aren't gonna play don't play, I think

492
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 3: this should be around a field goal, and I would

493
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 3: assume it probably trends. I think the total probably keeps

494
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 3: coming down and the spread keeps coming down, unless the

495
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 3: injury news gets somehow much better, which I don't envision

496
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 3: it as of this moment.

497
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, one more thing. Let me just just because

498
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: I know you are a special teams guy. San Francisco's

499
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,959
Speaker 1: down as a number three kicker Andrews Carson, who's missed

500
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: half of his career field goals from forty to forty nine,

501
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 1: So just another reason. Brandon fucking Aubrey probably the best

502
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: kicker in the game. Right now, like with Tucker should

503
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 1: be in a little bit more human So I mean, yeah,

504
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 1: just another edge for Dallas here.

505
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Dallas special teams. San Francisco's especiallyams are bad.

506
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 3: All right, all right, we got it for my second

507
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 3: pick and the fourth overall the week eight Sunday six pack.

508
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Jacksonville Jaguars plus four and a

509
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 3: half at home against the Green Bay Packers. On the surface,

510
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: it's not the greatest spot for Jacksonville. They played two

511
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 3: straight games in London coming back home, but they were

512
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 3: in the spot last year and they beat the Colts

513
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 3: by two touchdowns, so they're familiar with this spot. Actually,

514
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 3: actually think it's a worst spot for Green Bay. You

515
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 3: have that emotional, thrilling win at home over Houston, and

516
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 3: you have like the Bears on deck. Now you're going

517
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 3: down to Jacksonville sort of a sleepy spot in Florida,

518
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 3: So you know, I think the Jags can carry some

519
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 3: of them amentum over from last week's win. And I

520
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 3: think the Packers' defense has some regression coming. I liked

521
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 3: their new aggression under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafey. I

522
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: think it matches their personnel. But They're playing above their

523
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 3: heads right now. I mean, this is a team early

524
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 3: down success rate thirty first EPA per play on early

525
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 3: down to the thirtieth when you remove turnovers, and man,

526
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 3: they've benefited from turnovers as much as any team in

527
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 3: the league. For what it's worth, the Jags are eleventh

528
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 3: and seventh in those two categories. And they got Tyson

529
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 3: Campbell back. It's massive. I've been playing without him, trying

530
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 3: to play man coverage with just a bad group of

531
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 3: corners for a good portion of this season and it

532
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 3: just hasn't worked out. So now they're much healthier on

533
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 3: the defensive side of the ball, and I just don't

534
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 3: think it can be overstated how important getting Campbell back is.

535
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 3: I mean, the Packers closed as what a two and

536
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 3: a half point favorite at the Rams practice squad. Now

537
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 3: they're laying four and a half here against a relatively

538
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 3: healthy Jags team. Jags offense metrics are pretty good. They

539
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: need to still figure out the red zone, I tend

540
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 3: to I mean, maybe that's just like a Jags problem,

541
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 3: I think, but that tends to just be a variant

542
00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 3: stat So, I mean, the Jacksonville defense with Campbell is

543
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 3: much better they're good against the run, they're middle to

544
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 3: pack success rate, they have some turnover luck coming their way,

545
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 3: they haven't been able to generate any, and the Packers'

546
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: defense is vulnerable. They're they're living off of turnovers weekend

547
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: and week out. I think this spreads me a field goal,

548
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 3: so I'll take the four and a half points at home.

549
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, when I projected out, I can't get to the

550
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: four and a half, so I'm not mad for playing this.

551
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: But in terms of the variants, I kind of I

552
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 1: think this Packer team actually might be a little bit

553
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: of a sweeping giant. I mean, you mentioned the turnovers,

554
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: and yes, Packers have forced a lot of turnovers. But

555
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: Jordan loves. In his five starts, he's thrown one, three, one,

556
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 1: one and two interceptions. He hasn't have had a clean

557
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: start yet, but he's also thrown multiple tuddies in all

558
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: five of his starts. I'll say this about the Packers.

559
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 1: It just scares me a little withit this jag secondary.

560
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 1: I know Campbell's back, but the Packers have all their

561
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: receivers healthy, their ski, their offensive scheming looks immaculate on film,

562
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: and some of the throws Jordan love is making even

563
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 1: though he has turned the ball over, are just absolutely ridiculous.

564
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: So I this just kind of scares me. It's kind

565
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 1: of it might be like walking into like the way

566
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: I walked into the uh the Bucks, scoring fifty one

567
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: of the Saints. I had the Bucks a couple of

568
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 1: weeks ago. I hope that doesn't happen for your sake

569
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 1: and the sake of this pod. But I really like

570
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 1: what I've seen out of this pack or offense. I

571
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 1: just I don't know how the jacksonvill Jaggars are gonna

572
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: get stopped. This is a luck ranking game, though, and

573
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: those games have hit was it sixty three percent? So

574
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: I definitely did think about playing Jags, But I'm not

575
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 1: gonna lie. I'm a little more worry about this pack offense. Yeah,

576
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: I don't think they've they fully hit their stride, and

577
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 1: I think I think Jackson's gonna struggle to get stop,

578
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: so they're gonna needs some luck. But is this a

579
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 1: humidity game?

580
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 3: Is it?

581
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 1: How humid is it gonna be? I think it's like

582
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: in a sixty percent that I don't even.

583
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 3: Six high, right, Muggy is like between fifty five and

584
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 3: sixty five oppressive as like over sixty.

585
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: Okay, all right. For my third and final pick of

586
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 1: the week, number eight Sunday six pack the fifth overall,

587
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Chicago Bears minus two and a

588
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: half at the Washington Commanders. Now it's a little risky,

589
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 1: I admittedly, because Jamean Daniels hasn't been officially ruled out.

590
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: He didn't practice Wednesday. Most sources think he's gonna miss

591
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: at least a week. You know, it's it's just, uh,

592
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: you know, he's too important and it's a rib kind

593
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: of a weak injury. It can affect, you know, throwing motion,

594
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: things like that. He is a guy who runs takes

595
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: some hits, So I.

596
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 3: Do think Daniels matters. Maybe it's just Cliff after will marry.

597
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll get to that. But I was gonna say, like,

598
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: you know, this is not for the faint of heart,

599
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 1: is it. There's a chance I could look really stupid

600
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: and he plays and this line is gonna flip and

601
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: I might have to bet the Bears again as a

602
00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: as a Doug. But uh, I I like Chicago. I'm

603
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: higher on the market in Chicago. I know you've been

604
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: actually lower on the market in Chicago. So I'm curious

605
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: to hear your thoughts on this. But when I watched

606
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: Chicago on film, and I'm not an eber Flus fan,

607
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: I'm kind of agnostic on Waldron. Never never saw the hype,

608
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: but it also didn't think he's like terrible or anything.

609
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: But this team offensively after those first two weeks where

610
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: it was just nightmarish. I think Kable Williams average four

611
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: yards in attempt and the gold Ye situation was horrible.

612
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: Just everything you could think of. Comet wasn't playing enough,

613
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 1: Everett was playing too much. Every week, they seemed to

614
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: correct their most glaring issue. Now it will be nice

615
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: if they just didn't have these glaring you know, decision

616
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: making person you know, schematic things in the first place.

617
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 1: But they've been improving a lot, and I think a

618
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 1: lot of people are just kind of looking at them

619
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 1: as like, oh, it's just the same justin fields Bears

620
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: with the same old coaching staff and uh, you know,

621
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: shining some shiny new toys, but it's still you know,

622
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 1: they haven't beat anybody, and I think it's I don't

623
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 1: think that's fully true. I think they have had an

624
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 1: easy schedule and that's it's helped, but that does build

625
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: confidence in a rookie quarterback. You see Kyle William playing

626
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: a lot better. First two starts four yards in attempt,

627
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 1: no touchdowns, two picks, last four starts seven point nine

628
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: yards in attempt, nine touchdowns, three picks, and he started

629
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 1: to run more in that In that last game too,

630
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: they started to incorporate. So every week they're kind of

631
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 1: incorporating I think, more and more on Kayler's play and

632
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: kind of switching things up, and I just like some

633
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 1: I actually like some of the past game schemes that

634
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: they especially in that Jacksonville game. I mean, I thought

635
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: Waldron was in his bag and that one that played

636
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: a commit even even to play to the intro to

637
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 1: DJ Moore was I think an interesting schemed uh play

638
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: because it was just kind of a one It got

639
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 1: more one on one. If Caleb makes a throw, that's

640
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: a touchdown. So I like some of the things they're doing.

641
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: I think the final step for them is getting roll

642
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: with Dunes more involved, and usually see rookies more involved

643
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 1: off the buy. I think I think he's actually get

644
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: more explosive and getting more separation than more in Allen

645
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,280
Speaker 1: right now. So I think this this offense still has upside.

646
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: I still think they could get better in the run game.

647
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: There's still some some some interior alignment kind of missing

648
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,760
Speaker 1: some some things and whatnot. But the run game has improved.

649
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 1: The goal line running has improved with Johnson for Herbert,

650
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: Swift has gotten it going. Williams is running more, Williams

651
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 1: is The schemes in terms of the routes down the

652
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: field are better. Allen's back, the team should be healthier

653
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 1: on offense. Defense. They're number seven in d v O A.

654
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 1: We'll see about some of the guys, you know, some

655
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 1: of the guys in the secondary, Brisker, I think it

656
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: is still in protocol, which is unfortunate. And I think

657
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:53,720
Speaker 1: Gordon still is not is not practicing. But I mentioned

658
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: it last time. You know, when they play Jacksonville, they

659
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: still got studs in the secondary with Buyard and with

660
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 1: Jalen Johnson, who was one of the best corners in

661
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: the league since since started last season. So Washington has

662
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: one really good receiver, Terry McLaurin. So I don't think

663
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 1: you need I don't think you need all of your

664
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 1: guys in the secondary to come back if you don't

665
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:17,359
Speaker 1: have jayde Daniels. Jayde Daniels was just so freaking good.

666
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: You go back to twenty eighteen, eighty seven quarterbacks have

667
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: at least two hundred and fifty dropbacks. Jayden Daniels is

668
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 1: number one of those eighty seven quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. Now,

669
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: now that doesn't mean I'm saying Jade Daniels is the

670
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: best quarterback of all the time, where he's better than

671
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 1: some of the other quarterbacks on it, it just means

672
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: that that's how above their heads this team was playing

673
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 1: like this team. It's just unsustainable how good he was.

674
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,919
Speaker 1: There's a big gap between Jayden Daniels on that second

675
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 1: place guy in that list, which is Drew Brees. So

676
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 1: you look at Marcus Mariota. Now has to come in

677
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: and the Panthers are a joke, so we're not gonna

678
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 1: look at that game. But it's Marcus Mariota. We know

679
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 1: who Marcus Mariota is. He's the guy who threw off

680
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: his ass backwards literally ass backwards in a game a

681
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: couple of years ago when he was on the Falcons

682
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,919
Speaker 1: almost almost got an ass backwards pick six. So don't

683
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: respect him, don't respect Cliff Without Jayden Daniels. If Dan

684
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: is out, this is where everyone's screaming Washington do for regression.

685
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: There's sixty four percent. Scoring rate on drives leads the

686
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: league by fourteen percent. The lead leader each year usually

687
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 1: below fifty percent. It's rare. The number one team in

688
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: scoring rate per drive on offense cracks fifty percent. Washington's

689
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 1: at sixty four. Where do you think that regression is

690
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: going to come in a Marcus Mariota start? I think so.

691
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 1: Washington defenses is terrible still and Deron Payne is out

692
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 1: and Drian's armstrong. You know, he's a little banged up.

693
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 1: I think he'll be back, but you know, is he

694
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 1: one hundred percent? I don't know. Front doesn't look great.

695
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 1: The secondary is terrible. Uh So, yeah, I think this

696
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,320
Speaker 1: is just another one of these matchups where Chicago lucks

697
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: into a catching a team at the right time, just

698
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 1: like they caught the Rams practice squad and the Jaguars

699
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 1: without without Campbell when you know some of their guys

700
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: like I just think it's another spot. So going with

701
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 1: with Chicago minus two and a half. Tell me why

702
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: I'm wrong.

703
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 3: And look, the Bears are gonna potentially look out again.

704
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 3: They have been improving. I've upgraded them a bit. But yeah,

705
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 3: they played the Panthers, who are missing their entire I mean,

706
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 3: their entire team gets hurt during the game too. We

707
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 3: know all bad the Panthers are. The Jags had injuries

708
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 3: on defense, the Rams practice squad, the Colts had injuries.

709
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: I don't.

710
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:27,760
Speaker 3: I don't have any feeling it. The Bears were getting

711
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 3: super lucky. They might get lucky again here. I mean,

712
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 3: I agree Washington is one of the worst defenses in

713
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 3: the league on paper. I have no feel for my

714
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 3: third pick in the sixth and final of the Week

715
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,760
Speaker 3: eight Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals

716
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 3: minus one and a half at home. I think think

717
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 3: under three. Spiners are one and a half out there

718
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 3: right now against the Philadelphia Eagles. Not a believer in

719
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 3: this Eagles team. Yes, they destroyed the Giants last week.

720
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,080
Speaker 3: I'm looking at their body of work over basically the

721
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 3: last sixteen to seventeen games, and I get Joe Burrow here.

722
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 3: I mean, I think the Bengals are a couple points

723
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 3: better than the Eagles. I'm getting the Matt Home the

724
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 3: more desperate team here. They're you'll give me Burrow against

725
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 3: a good team and by the way, I mean two

726
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 3: who are people are saying the two best teams in

727
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,440
Speaker 3: the league are right now the Ravens and Chiefs. Bengals

728
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 3: should have beat them both. Burrow is sixteen and seven

729
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 3: against the spread first teams over five hundred, just under

730
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 3: seventy percent. This Eagles defense has holes for days. I

731
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 3: think Burrow and these receivers just can efficiently move it

732
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 3: on them down the field. Eagles have benefited from some

733
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 3: just good scheduling spots and teams that are beat up

734
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,919
Speaker 3: in the right places. Their offense doesn't look right. There's

735
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 3: probably gonna be no Dallas Goddard still, there's probably, and

736
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 3: there's no Jordan Myatta. The one thing that gives me

737
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 3: a little bit of pause is the Bengals could be

738
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 3: without Orlando Brown was a practice today, but you could

739
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 3: have Cody Ford playing tackle, which is an ideal.

740
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 1: Yeahious, I mean, yeah, I don't need to shout on

741
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 1: anyone's career, but I mean he hasn't been He has

742
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 1: not performed up to the expectation of an NFL's replacement

743
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 1: level tackle even most of.

744
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 3: The Yeah, so I'm hoping Brown can go. He was

745
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 3: at practice today, so that hopefully is a good sign.

746
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 3: That is the one thing that gives me pause. But

747
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 3: the Bengals, I mean the Eagles without their left tackle

748
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 3: going up against Hendrickson. Hurts has been horrendous under pressure

749
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 3: this year. This offense is it looks like the same

750
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 3: as it was the end of last year. And last

751
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 3: year you could say, yeah, last week they put up

752
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 3: twenty eight points against the Giants and Hurts through for

753
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 3: seventy yards in that game. He's under pressure the entire game.

754
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 3: Barkley just went off in a revenge spot and you

755
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 3: know they hit. They went three for three on fourth downs.

756
00:39:56,280 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 3: Hurts hit a bomb to that was day Brown down

757
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 3: the side.

758
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 1: That throw actually made me go oh, like that might

759
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: have been the best throw I've ever seen him make,

760
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: just considering the way the pressure was in his face,

761
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 1: Like that was that? How many guys make that throw?

762
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 1: But I agree, I think the I agree with you continue.

763
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 3: Did they miss God or they missed my honor? They

764
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 3: still miss Kelsea. The offensive line is in the same

765
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 3: They're getting too much pressure. I don't like the way

766
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 3: the offense is being called. But this is just simple.

767
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 1: I think.

768
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 3: Give me a desperate brow at home and that's been

769
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,479
Speaker 3: zero and three at home. That's just had tough luck

770
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 3: losses all season. I think the Bengals are the better team.

771
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 3: They're at home, and uh Eagles have some injuries in

772
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 3: a vulnerable defense, So I'll take since I think this

773
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 3: lunch of be a field goal.

774
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 1: I'm kind of relying with this is I have an

775
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 1: inside of three, So I do have some thoughts on

776
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 1: this game that I'll talk about later in the pods,

777
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna be labored here. So to recap,

778
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 1: you got the Dolphins minus three, the Jags plus four

779
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,920
Speaker 1: and a half, and the Bengals minus twos.

780
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 3: One of the things that I have noticed this year

781
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 3: in particular, is the bottom of the league is way

782
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 3: worse than usual, like the worst teams, and some of

783
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 3: that is injuries, and that probably has something to do

784
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:21,399
Speaker 3: with some of these home dogs not covering. Yep, yep,

785
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 3: the bad teams that have injuries, they've just been lifeless.

786
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,720
Speaker 3: There's been less parody this year than in recent years.

787
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: A lot of the game results, in my opinion, have

788
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 1: just been like, don't overthink it. Neither of us take

789
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:36,240
Speaker 1: many favorites, but I probably took favorites like five percent

790
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 1: of the time. The first like three four years of

791
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 1: this pot, I've probably taken them more like twenty percent.

792
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 1: And just in general this year two or three this

793
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 1: week I said that to say, Miami mice three, Jacksonville

794
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 1: plus four and a half, since the minus two Burrow

795
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 1: Lawrence and two a great, great quarterback line for you.

796
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 1: I got since Cleveland plus nine and a half, Dallas

797
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 1: plus four and a half, and then the Bears my

798
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 1: soon enough, so I got a DAK and Trevor Lawrence

799
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 1: is probably the worst quarterback. James is probably the worst quarterback. Yes,

800
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 1: that's actually that's pretty good for us. That was our

801
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 1: NFL Week eight Sunday six pack. Now it's time for

802
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 1: our coaches pep talk. We sucked. That's what it boiled

803
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 1: down to. I'm totally embarrassed and totally ashamed. All Right,

804
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 1: for the Week eight coaches pep talk, We're going to

805
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 1: another actual coach just pep talk, and that's gonna come

806
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 1: to us from former Buffalo Bill coach Lou Saban back

807
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy four. And I'm gonna go ahead and

808
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 1: let's go back to back. I'm gonna dedicate this on

809
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 1: the You stuck because you know we know what we're

810
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: doing here, and you have me cracking up last week

811
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: when you dedicated it to yourself. So I think this

812
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 1: one actually fits. So we're going to dedicate this on

813
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 1: to you. I see a triple sweep in the future

814
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 1: for you. Man. Let's go need.

815
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 2: It right the crossroads and no question about that. But

816
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 2: it's not the end of the world. I just want

817
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 2: us to a job that we're capable of doing.

818
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: If we die, we die together.

819
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 3: You can get it done.

820
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 2: You can get it done. What's more, you gotta get

821
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 2: it done.

822
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 3: All right.

823
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 1: Favorite total of the week I started first for six packs.

824
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 1: So what you got for your egay total?

825
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Bill's Seahawks under forty seven

826
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 3: or better.

827
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 1: It's a forty seven, halfty seven and a half. Yeah,

828
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: I said. There's a couple of spots.

829
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 3: There could be some weather here, some rain, some win.

830
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 3: Both defenses do a good job of limiting explosive passing plays.

831
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 3: I think both defenses are underrated in the market due

832
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 3: to some of the injuries that they've had to endure.

833
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 3: I think both teams have good defensive minded head coaches

834
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 3: that can game plan very well. DK Metcalf not sure

835
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 3: if he's gonna play. I would assume not, but who knows.

836
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 3: This year, I think I think Riek Woland will be back,

837
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,360
Speaker 3: which is huge. Has been one of the best corners

838
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 3: in the NFL. So and this the Seahawks defense had

839
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 3: to play like multiple weeks with almost nobody along their

840
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 3: defensive line, and so their run defense is much better

841
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 3: than their metrics show. So I don't think there's gonna

842
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 3: be a ton of explosive plays in this game, especially

843
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 3: if there's no Metcalf, and there could be some weather.

844
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:31,920
Speaker 3: I think that both coaches will have not only good

845
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 3: game plans, but good in game adjustments. So I like

846
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,720
Speaker 3: this to be lower scoring than the market is assuming.

847
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially with the weather, you know, I think that

848
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 1: definitely adds something to it. And you know, this day

849
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 1: and age, I mean, get to forty forty seven field

850
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 1: anything like forty in the bid forties and high, I

851
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: mean these are high total. It feels like these are

852
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 1: high totals. So yeah, it's not easy to get over

853
00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 1: those those numbers. And I think Buffalo, you know, they

854
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 1: were more passed heavy last week, which I've liked, but

855
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 1: they've been very run heavy, you know, kind of low

856
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 1: lower play volume. You get the rain, you get Seattle

857
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 1: O line issues, you know, So I think there's I

858
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: think there's a lot working for you and and you

859
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 1: could have some long drives, you know, because it's Seattle

860
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 1: without if Metcalf's not there, they're not going to be

861
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 1: as explosive. They're gonna have to you know, dink it

862
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: dunk with Smith and Jigba and things like that.

863
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm sure mcdonnal McDonald talked to his former

864
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 3: friends in Baltimore who shut down this Bills offense a

865
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago. Ah, So yeah, I think both

866
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:41,919
Speaker 3: teams have a good game plan here.

867
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,319
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Eagles Bengals under forty eight.

868
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 1: And this is why I you know, talked about like

869
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,279
Speaker 1: I'm a little I kind of could go either way

870
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 1: with the side. I know that the Bengals are have

871
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:58,879
Speaker 1: been the sharper side. You made a good case for them,

872
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 1: But I do feel confident about the total going under

873
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: in this one. I already talked about it. Both teams

874
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 1: left tackle issues. My lot on ir at the Hammy

875
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 1: he was graded out as the second best tackle in

876
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 1: football at PFF lane Fred Johnson, excuse me, he's not

877
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 1: a good like Lane Johnson at right tackle. Amazing. Fred

878
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 1: Johnson is like the Bizarro, like the complete opposite. Twenty

879
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,879
Speaker 1: two pressures this year on ninety seven pass blocking opportunities.

880
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:31,719
Speaker 1: That's a twenty two point seven pressure rate. For context,

881
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 1: the NFL average for a tackle is six point two

882
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 1: percent pressure rate. Twenty two point seven. It's like four

883
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: times as much, and we're getting to one hundred opportunities.

884
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 1: Now that's not even just like all right, one bad game.

885
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: So I mean Jalen Hurt says had had giants in

886
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 1: his lap last week. That's why I barely threw freendy yards.

887
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 1: He was pressured on forty eight percent of his dropbacks

888
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 1: last week. So they might have to turn to just

889
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:58,800
Speaker 1: like somebody off the street or on the practice squad,

890
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: and they're no guaranteed to be better either. But this

891
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 1: is this guy, Fred Johnson is not it.

892
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 3: Uh At Hendrickson not good?

893
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:09,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, And then on the other side, I don't

894
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 1: think yeah, most likely know god her, but you know,

895
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 1: even if he's back, you're gonna have to take away

896
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 1: some of his pass catching and use him blocking more

897
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 1: so that is still not great. But Orlando Brown is

898
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 1: also big, Orlanta Brown junior, Uh, you know, questionable with

899
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,399
Speaker 1: the kne year is it tennis tennis? Lag, I don't

900
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 1: even know what they're calling it tennis, but uh, he's

901
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 1: a top ten pass graded pass blocking tackle this year

902
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,879
Speaker 1: out of seventy four qualifiers. So he's been really good

903
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 1: in pass bro. That's what you're really worried about with

904
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 1: this Bengal team is is you know, them throwing the

905
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:43,239
Speaker 1: ball and they're they're not as getting as many explosives

906
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,800
Speaker 1: show too. I mean T Higgins. Shout out to T Higgins.

907
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:49,320
Speaker 1: I always loved him as a player. He is playing

908
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:53,879
Speaker 1: his ass off, He's drawing more targets to chase this year.

909
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 1: I feel good about these defenses kind of trending upward

910
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:02,799
Speaker 1: as well. Cincinnati's defense number one and the fewest explosive

911
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 1: pass plays allowed rate at four point six percent twenty

912
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:09,879
Speaker 1: I'm talking twenty plus year. Philadelphia is also top eight

913
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:13,439
Speaker 1: at seven point two percent. Uh. They're also both top

914
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 1: thirteen in fewest twenty plus rushes allowed, So not as

915
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 1: money explosives, you know, the Bengals, even when they pass,

916
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 1: it's a lot of you know, Borrow's very efficient underneath,

917
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:27,760
Speaker 1: you get some longer drives. Philadelphia is the same way,

918
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 1: run it for you know, four or five yards of pop.

919
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: But I don't think they're going to get it. You know,

920
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,320
Speaker 1: Bark He's just gonna go crazy like he did against

921
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: the Giants. Because this Bengal run defense has been getting

922
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 1: better now. Part of it they played some really weak

923
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 1: run defense run offenses the last couple weeks, but the

924
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: run defense been a lot better, and part of that

925
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 1: I think is them getting healthier. You know, bj Hill

926
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:51,479
Speaker 1: is back, top ten percentile grated defensive tackle. He missed

927
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 1: a couple of games, Sheldy Rankins missed three. He's back,

928
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 1: and the Eagles they're trending up. And that's kind of

929
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 1: why I was excited to play them against the Giants

930
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 1: last week, because I do trust Vic Fangio and you know,

931
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 1: I know his defense. It's gonna kind of take some time.

932
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: So I think the buye the early buy came at

933
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,280
Speaker 1: a really good time for the Eagles, especially on defense.

934
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 1: Obviously they were able to get their offensive guys healthy too,

935
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:19,359
Speaker 1: but on defense, you know, don't now, but they have

936
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:23,320
Speaker 1: three cornerbacks all in the top third of the league

937
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 1: in terms of PFF grade cornerbacks, which used to be

938
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:31,720
Speaker 1: a liability trending upward for Philly. You know, Fangio doesn't

939
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 1: want to give up explosives, so I think he'll he'll

940
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: be satisfied to let Burrow dink and dunk it. You know,

941
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 1: even if the offenses do have success, I think you're

942
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 1: going to see longer drives Philly with the run, Bengals

943
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,360
Speaker 1: with the short pass game, and God of love that

944
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 1: this is a luck under at our luck rankings, you know,

945
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 1: look at expected scores and kind of factor out all

946
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 1: the luck kind of like you know, we do as

947
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: we're handicapping these games. But it's it's just a really

948
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: great model. And I'm going to game triggers a luck under,

949
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 1: which means it's above minus five, you know, versus expected

950
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 1: which this game is a minus. I think it's minus nine.

951
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: Then luck unders have hit had a sixty percent clip

952
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 1: over a two hundred plus game sample size, So I

953
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 1: love it even more because it's popping in our luck rankings.

954
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think forty eight is just too many points.

955
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 1: I think this is more of a you know, the

956
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 1: line might or probably should be closer to forty forty

957
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:31,279
Speaker 1: six ish. I know these teams have some studs, but

958
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 1: I just think the way these teams kind of run

959
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 1: their offenses, you're gonna get some longer drives even when

960
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 1: they score.

961
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 3: I don't mind it. If I had a bet that

962
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 3: I would look at the under.

963
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 1: You got the bill Seahawks under forty seven and a

964
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 1: half could be some weather. I got Eagles Bengals under

965
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 1: forty eight. For teasers, we don't really like any tees

966
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:51,880
Speaker 1: this week. There's another real long teaser opportunities. I will say,

967
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 1: you know, if you're looking for kind of like a

968
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 1: with do something with favorites, Like I was thinking of

969
00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 1: teasing Houston down, but now they're down five, so you

970
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,720
Speaker 1: can do a moneyline parlay. Use in minus two eighteen

971
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 1: against the Colts, and then the Chargers minus three ten

972
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 1: against the Saints who are really banged up, and I

973
00:51:08,120 --> 00:51:09,799
Speaker 1: get to minus one to eight odds. So it's kind

974
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,280
Speaker 1: of like kind of like doing a teaser, your teasing

975
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 1: you know, down to a pick or something like that,

976
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:16,800
Speaker 1: but you're getting minus want to wait instead of paying

977
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 1: the one twenty if you can get the If you

978
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 1: can get good numbers for the money line. But even

979
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:23,319
Speaker 1: if you don't, should still get it, you know, in

980
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:26,839
Speaker 1: that in that teaser juice range. So that's that's all

981
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 1: I'll say on that.

982
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, two quick senses on those two games. Saints could

983
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 3: get healthier, maybe a wide receiver. I don't know. I

984
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 3: don't think Derek is gonna play. Chargers could get healthier,

985
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 3: a wide receiver, maybe a sneaky over in that game.

986
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 3: But I mean it's hard to trust the Saints offense,

987
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:44,680
Speaker 3: but it's also hard to trust the defense. I think

988
00:51:44,760 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 3: Chargers should win that game. But injury, that's a that's

989
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 3: an injury watching game for me. Colts Texans same, I

990
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 3: want to watch Texans injuries. Buckner and Jonathan Taylor practice Today.

991
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:58,080
Speaker 3: For the Colts, Anthony Richards is just really bad. I mean, yeah,

992
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:02,760
Speaker 3: really bad. He's minus eleven point three percent completion percentage

993
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 3: over expectation. It's no accuracy. This Colts team continues to

994
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 3: get very lucky. They're much better with Flacco. Texans offense

995
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 3: has issues and protection early downs, but they're relying on

996
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 3: Stroud to bail them out. They're gonna miss They missed

997
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 3: Ekal Collins, who just rips apart the colts and zone defenses.

998
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,719
Speaker 3: But this is a game where Stroud on a fast

999
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:23,760
Speaker 3: indoor track can bail them out on their third downs.

1000
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 3: So I do think the Texans win that game. Richardson

1001
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:31,319
Speaker 3: is just so inaccurate and so inefficient some one of.

1002
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 1: Those don't overthink it games, right, It's just like Detectans

1003
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 1: do have injuries. But and c J. Stroud through for

1004
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: eighty yards last week. But he c J Stroud, he's

1005
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 1: got Tech Deale, he's got Stefan Diggs.

1006
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 3: At home against the zone defense at.

1007
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:47,399
Speaker 1: Home against given that they already played, and it's easy

1008
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 1: to prepare for. Don't overthink. Let's get into our Undergog

1009
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 1: money line parlay turning good weekends into great weekends.

1010
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 3: It's time for the money line parlay.

1011
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:05,919
Speaker 1: You hit another one last week, stuck up to three

1012
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,800
Speaker 1: on a year. I got to catch up. So you

1013
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,720
Speaker 1: hit with the with the Seahawks last week, they wasn't

1014
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:15,399
Speaker 1: much of a sweat at all.

1015
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 3: Where are you going for a weekend break Monday? That dog,

1016
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna get a little crazy. The last time I

1017
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 3: got crazy, I think it was the Panthers.

1018
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 1: I think we got like a plus ten something that that.

1019
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:29,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, week so this one will be a lot higher

1020
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 3: because I'm gonna go with the Raiders. I'm hearing a

1021
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:36,279
Speaker 3: lot about the I mean it is the Chiefs. Look,

1022
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:40,200
Speaker 3: they're they're very efficient, their defense is playing well. Every week,

1023
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,879
Speaker 3: the entire team gets hurt whoever they're playing. I mean

1024
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:46,839
Speaker 3: it is insane, the entire offensive lines. Last week, the

1025
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 3: entire receiving group for the forty nine ers gets hurt.

1026
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 1: You don't have to worry about that with the Raiders

1027
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 1: because they're already hurt.

1028
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kobe Myers maybe comes back.

1029
00:53:55,520 --> 00:54:00,040
Speaker 1: Is he does, He still exists.

1030
00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 3: The rock hoers a billion times. But the Chiefs just

1031
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:04,240
Speaker 3: can't build I mean, look at them. They can't build margin.

1032
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 3: Like even the forty niners basically are a bad offense.

1033
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 3: Last week when they lost all their guys and they

1034
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:14,440
Speaker 3: even struggled to build margin in that game, even against

1035
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 3: the Saints, who lost all their players, like it was,

1036
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:18,359
Speaker 3: it wasn't even until late.

1037
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: That's not that's not.

1038
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:23,360
Speaker 3: I mean we were gonna get so much hate for because,

1039
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:29,400
Speaker 3: like I mean, the Saints game was sixteen thirteen in

1040
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:34,040
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter that way. Yeah, But I mean everyone

1041
00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 3: is in it against them. They're not They're not like

1042
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 3: blowing teams out. And I mean they also easily could

1043
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 3: have lost to the Ravens, to the Bengals, to the Falcons.

1044
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:49,400
Speaker 3: So this team has no explosiveness. I know they added Hopkins,

1045
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:54,359
Speaker 3: I don't think he adds that much explosiveness if he's yeah,

1046
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:57,480
Speaker 3: if he's even playing this week. They also lost Watson,

1047
00:54:57,480 --> 00:54:59,360
Speaker 3: who I think is it matters because I think that

1048
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 3: Johnson is really bad. Who's going to replace him at cornerback?

1049
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 3: I look, the Raiders are just do you want to

1050
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 3: fade Mahomes as a favorite of more than seven? I

1051
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:11,799
Speaker 3: also did play the Raiders plus ten. Mahomes is just

1052
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 3: like Lamar. Forty three percent is a favorite over a touchdown,

1053
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:19,240
Speaker 3: thirty nine percent is a double digit favorite nine fourteen

1054
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:21,880
Speaker 3: and two against the spread home dogs of ten plus

1055
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 3: by the way, or fifty seven percent historically. But the

1056
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:28,919
Speaker 3: Raiders are a weird team. They're feisty. They they beat

1057
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:31,200
Speaker 3: the like they beat the Chiefs last year as double

1058
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 3: digit underdogs.

1059
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:34,120
Speaker 1: In Kansas City Christmas game.

1060
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:38,440
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, they beat the Ravens earlier this year, so

1061
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:43,320
Speaker 3: divisional game, double digit dog like, I'll take it. I

1062
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 3: know there's all this talk about the Chiefs are mad

1063
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:48,759
Speaker 3: because the Raiders social media team boasted a Kermit the

1064
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 3: Frog thing in the summer, Like what what does that mean?

1065
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 3: Like Mahomes is naturally going to start having receivers to

1066
00:55:56,280 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 3: throw two down the field. Yeah, I mean, I don't

1067
00:55:58,640 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 3: think that means anything.

1068
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 1: I've watched football long enough to know, you know, the

1069
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 1: Chiefs have They're They're amazing, They're great, and don't ever

1070
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 1: want to be said that. We never want to bet

1071
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 1: against Patty, but these are the craft games. Like I

1072
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:13,160
Speaker 1: know it's a division game, but I've backed the Chiefs

1073
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:16,760
Speaker 1: in the Mahomes era on the road I think minus

1074
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 1: ten against the Raiders and and had to eat a

1075
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:22,280
Speaker 1: l They beat the Niners just so they got there,

1076
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:24,239
Speaker 1: you know, like, oh if they if you didn't think

1077
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:28,360
Speaker 1: they won the Super Bowl convincingly enough, well they's doubled

1078
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 1: down so I could see a little bit of a letdown.

1079
00:56:31,520 --> 00:56:34,280
Speaker 1: Mine is kind of in that same vein. I'm gonna

1080
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:38,440
Speaker 1: go with the New England Patriots home dog plus two

1081
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:42,640
Speaker 1: ninety against the New York Jets, and I have been

1082
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 1: on the Jets the last two week. Terrible calls by me,

1083
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 1: I've just grossly overestimated they.

1084
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 3: Had some bad bounces. Their entire secondary got hurt.

1085
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 1: To be fair, yeah yeah, but which is guys who

1086
00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 1: are on the field thought they're gonna play well, aren't

1087
00:56:59,040 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 1: playing well.

1088
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:00,439
Speaker 3: That's true.

1089
00:57:00,480 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw those picks in like almost at

1090
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 1: any other point in his career. Garrett Wilson just, I mean,

1091
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 1: that's luck. But he's been he's been mistake for in

1092
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 1: his whole career. They can't block, They're not they're not

1093
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 1: They're not like Rodgers is not like finishing off enough drives.

1094
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 1: They can't keep field goals, which I didn't think would

1095
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 1: be a recurring issue.

1096
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:23,800
Speaker 3: The d is way worse. They could have forced starters

1097
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 3: in the secondary.

1098
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 1: Out Yeah yeah, like they're they're we're running Russell Wilson

1099
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 1: complete moon balls that they know are coming. I mean,

1100
00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:34,920
Speaker 1: this team, I thought the coaching I thought the coaching

1101
00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:36,880
Speaker 1: change might give him a momentary boost. You know, you

1102
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:40,880
Speaker 1: also get some uh you know, some element of surprise

1103
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 1: with the scheme. But now they're two losses and two

1104
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 1: games in. This is Game three, and we're sitting here

1105
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 1: with Todd downing at oc that Daniel Hackett twittering his

1106
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 1: thumbs A forty year old Aaron Rodgers, Mike Williams, who

1107
00:57:57,760 --> 00:58:03,080
Speaker 1: Mike just had confidence completely destroyed, Like you're benching your

1108
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 1: You're you're phasing out your your good looking rookie running

1109
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 1: back and to overwork a guy who tore his ACL

1110
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 1: like five games into his rookie season in Bruce Hallway.

1111
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 1: I just don't like anything about this Jet team. They're

1112
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 1: like twenty fifty d what are they twenty They're they're

1113
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: in the they're in the twenties and overall DVA so

1114
00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:24,640
Speaker 1: they're not even like significantly better on paper than the

1115
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:28,120
Speaker 1: New England Patriots who have been starting uh Jacobe Brissett

1116
00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:30,520
Speaker 1: for most of the year. Drake May is a substantial

1117
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 1: step up from Brissett. Yeah, the Jets are twenty fifth

1118
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:39,040
Speaker 1: in overall DVOA, fifteen percent worse than average. Patriots are thirtieth,

1119
00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 1: they're forty one percent, So they're they're terrible. But I

1120
00:58:41,560 --> 00:58:43,959
Speaker 1: think that that number, those numbers converge a lot more

1121
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 1: with Drake May, who averaging over two hundred and fifty

1122
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 1: passing yards per start. Dacobe Brissette was under a buck fifty,

1123
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:54,080
Speaker 1: a prime spot for Drake May to pick up his

1124
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 1: first win. You know, Division opponent coming in. They already

1125
00:58:57,120 --> 00:59:00,200
Speaker 1: beat him once, prevents spot. Probably, oh, you know, been

1126
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 1: really struggling. Probably think they can, you know, easy way

1127
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:05,240
Speaker 1: to get back on track, get right, game going Pats

1128
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:08,920
Speaker 1: plus two ninety Raiders plus four hundred. That is a

1129
00:59:09,200 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 1: plus eighteen fifty parlay moneyline dog parlay if anyone out

1130
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 1: there wants to get real crazy. But I think this

1131
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 1: is probably our biggest our longest odds that we've ever

1132
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 1: taken on this pod. I don't know, I don't remember

1133
00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 1: both of us take a touchdown plus dogs. So this

1134
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:31,040
Speaker 1: should be very interesting, very interesting. Now time for best

1135
00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 1: of the rest the games. We didn't discuss in any

1136
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:36,880
Speaker 1: other segment that's going to be a touchdown, but that

1137
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 1: made me meaningful to some of you. Do you know

1138
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:43,280
Speaker 1: what I mean? I can't believe you know the Titans

1139
00:59:43,280 --> 00:59:47,440
Speaker 1: are sitting here plus eleven at Detroit, but you almost

1140
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 1: talked me off against Minnesota and you're not You're not.

1141
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:53,680
Speaker 1: You're not just foaming at the mouth to BacT the

1142
00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:57,920
Speaker 1: Titans and plus eleven in Detroit here we let the spot.

1143
00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:00,320
Speaker 3: For the long Yeah, I think it's the side. It's

1144
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:03,400
Speaker 3: the spot. I want to hope that Levis isn't starting.

1145
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 3: We're off is a little better, it's not much better.

1146
01:00:06,040 --> 01:00:11,400
Speaker 3: I want to see if Sneid is back. I mean

1147
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 3: it's corner corner grading and is.

1148
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:15,320
Speaker 1: No but I mean I mean just watching him, he

1149
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 1: hasn't he's been it hasn't been great. I mean the

1150
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:21,000
Speaker 1: numbers of his like completions that are okay, but like

1151
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 1: in this in the scheme of the defense and something like,

1152
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 1: it's not not good but but.

1153
01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 3: It's not a great fit. But I saw I want

1154
01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 3: to watch the injury report. They lost Hopkins and it's

1155
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 3: where they are mentally. I don't know. This is a

1156
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 3: bad spot for the line, though emotionally maybe the under

1157
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 3: is worth a look. The Titans need to really run

1158
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:41,480
Speaker 3: the ball and they're not going to do that against Detroit.

1159
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:43,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what about this one is for them as

1160
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 1: a dog, they need one of those like a driver

1161
01:00:46,720 --> 01:00:49,040
Speaker 1: to where power just carries them, and you might not

1162
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 1: get that against Detroit.

1163
01:00:50,880 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 3: Yeah. So I think it's a little inflated in the

1164
01:00:53,560 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 3: spot is the Titans, but as of now it's a pass.

1165
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 1: Yeah. I'd take one. Another thing about this year that's

1166
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 1: kind of struck me, is I feel like There's been

1167
01:01:01,720 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 1: a lot of times where like it's getting a lot

1168
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:08,160
Speaker 1: more important with some of these bigger dogs to kind

1169
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 1: of look at the number and even if like you

1170
01:01:10,360 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 1: have it projected like I have, I think I have

1171
01:01:12,880 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 1: this like more like nine or ten or something, but

1172
01:01:17,840 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 1: when I look at the line and I think it

1173
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:21,439
Speaker 1: was up to like eleven and a half twelve even

1174
01:01:21,480 --> 01:01:23,440
Speaker 1: at one point, but just kind of saying, you know what,

1175
01:01:24,040 --> 01:01:27,040
Speaker 1: like I don't feel good about it. It's just like

1176
01:01:27,080 --> 01:01:30,040
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Every week. Like the Panthers, I show value

1177
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 1: on them every week, but you know it's just you

1178
01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 1: kind of look at them and say, just one one

1179
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 1: little thing on one, one little thing with this lack

1180
01:01:37,920 --> 01:01:40,720
Speaker 1: of well, in the Titans case, it's lack of offense,

1181
01:01:40,760 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 1: pants case, lack of defense, and things can get away

1182
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:45,760
Speaker 1: from them and just kind of welighing off. So yeah,

1183
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:47,439
Speaker 1: I think I think this is a way off because

1184
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 1: even if it's a bad spot for the Lions, I mean,

1185
01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 1: they kind of deserve a little bit of a slack,

1186
01:01:53,360 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 1: like they they could probably blow out the Titans in

1187
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:56,800
Speaker 1: their sleep.

1188
01:01:57,160 --> 01:02:00,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, Jamison Williams suspended to probably suspend it what

1189
01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:00,520
Speaker 3: it's worth.

1190
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:04,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean, Jared Goff doesn't throw in completions,

1191
01:02:04,280 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 1: so and Sama Porter hasn't done nothing, and like the

1192
01:02:07,000 --> 01:02:10,400
Speaker 1: whole year, so this is like a sleeping giant ready

1193
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:14,320
Speaker 1: to awaken. So I yeah, I can see Detroit failing

1194
01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 1: to cover here, maybe like a twenty thirteen Arizona game

1195
01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:19,560
Speaker 1: that they had a few weeks ago but wouldn't wouldn't

1196
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 1: bet on it. And that's what we're here for. Uh

1197
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:26,320
Speaker 1: let's close it out with Falcons at Bucks Bucks plus

1198
01:02:26,360 --> 01:02:29,640
Speaker 1: two and a half at homes Line essentially flipped from

1199
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:32,840
Speaker 1: Bucks minus two and a half to uh Bucks plus

1200
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 1: two and a half with Evans Godwin going down. Just

1201
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:41,200
Speaker 1: a brutal, brutal for for for god when, especially because

1202
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:43,640
Speaker 1: he's gonna be out for the year. The ankle forty

1203
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:47,479
Speaker 1: six is a total What do you think about this one?

1204
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:50,040
Speaker 1: You know, if a guess the three, would you consider

1205
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:53,960
Speaker 1: the Bucks? I mean, Baker's been playing really well this year.

1206
01:02:54,000 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 1: He has had some of that volatility with the interceptions,

1207
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 1: But I just I don't know if I'm that impressed

1208
01:02:59,000 --> 01:03:01,120
Speaker 1: with this Atlanta team either. So what are your thoughts

1209
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:02,880
Speaker 1: on this one? Yeah?

1210
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:05,120
Speaker 3: I think the market adjustment is right. I mean it

1211
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:09,960
Speaker 3: doesn't meet as much going across zero, but Bucks revenge

1212
01:03:10,040 --> 01:03:13,880
Speaker 3: divisional game outdoors the second meeting. I'd look under here.

1213
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 3: I know these teams have just been flying over every week,

1214
01:03:16,360 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 3: but I think the Bucks are gonna you know, they

1215
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 3: play slow. They're gonna have to be more conservative here. Falcons

1216
01:03:21,120 --> 01:03:22,760
Speaker 3: can kind of sell out on the run. No Godwin

1217
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 3: and no Evans, especially like the first game, like on

1218
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 3: a short week. That's tough. So Falcons don't allow any

1219
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 3: explosive plays. And I think this Bucks defense they've been

1220
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:37,840
Speaker 3: getting embarrassed, I think it'll show up here. They have

1221
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 3: been dealing with a lot of injuries. They have fleets

1222
01:03:40,200 --> 01:03:42,400
Speaker 3: and mobile quarterbacks who are really good. They won't have

1223
01:03:42,400 --> 01:03:46,600
Speaker 3: to worry about that here. So I would look under

1224
01:03:46,880 --> 01:03:50,160
Speaker 3: maybe Bucks if it gets the three, but under nothing

1225
01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:53,640
Speaker 3: for me. And the one thing we didn't mention Panthers Broncos.

1226
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:58,680
Speaker 3: Broncos out the ten. Panthers are down to practice squad guys.

1227
01:03:58,720 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 3: Bryce Young is going to get the star art. I'm

1228
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:04,280
Speaker 3: not laying ten with the Broncos, and I'm not playing

1229
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:08,360
Speaker 3: the Panthers. Easiest pass on the board that seven nothing.

1230
01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 1: If I had to, I would just lay it and

1231
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:13,760
Speaker 1: not overthink it because we know Bryce Young is terrible.

1232
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:16,040
Speaker 1: We know the Panthers have no defense, and we know

1233
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:18,320
Speaker 1: Sean Payton is a good coach with extra time to

1234
01:04:18,360 --> 01:04:22,200
Speaker 1: prepare and against uh you know, like non elite defenses,

1235
01:04:22,200 --> 01:04:26,240
Speaker 1: which the Panthers are the worst in the league. Uh. Theron,

1236
01:04:26,320 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 1: the Broncos have managed to cabo offense together, like you know,

1237
01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 1: like they they've gotten the run game going. Uh you know,

1238
01:04:32,760 --> 01:04:34,760
Speaker 1: like uh they're they're playing I think they're playing the

1239
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:37,000
Speaker 1: right group of personnel with receiver now. They because he

1240
01:04:37,080 --> 01:04:40,320
Speaker 1: got Sutton with the rookie Franklin and the rookie Veley

1241
01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 1: in the slot. So I think there's another team that

1242
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:44,960
Speaker 1: I think is gonna get better. It's not gonna be pretty,

1243
01:04:45,000 --> 01:04:46,960
Speaker 1: but I think this team is gonna get better. And

1244
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:48,760
Speaker 1: I think it's just gonna be one of those it's

1245
01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:50,960
Speaker 1: just a team that's like in that mediocre glut of

1246
01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:54,960
Speaker 1: teams that it's not like like a piss poor offense.

1247
01:04:55,360 --> 01:04:57,120
Speaker 1: I think they just played some really tough matchups. I

1248
01:04:57,160 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 1: think Bownicks cleans up some some footwork things. He's always

1249
01:04:59,800 --> 01:05:02,919
Speaker 1: gonna kind of bail bail himself out with the run. Yeah,

1250
01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:05,280
Speaker 1: I think the Broncos. I think I think it's at

1251
01:05:05,400 --> 01:05:07,439
Speaker 1: least like like I could say, I got twenty to three.

1252
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:09,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe you lean under. I don't. I don't

1253
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 1: know if the pants you play under, yeah, I would

1254
01:05:12,720 --> 01:05:15,720
Speaker 1: play under. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I do think the Broncos

1255
01:05:15,720 --> 01:05:17,320
Speaker 1: get to at least twenty and I do think it

1256
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:19,840
Speaker 1: might be a sneaky, sneaky blow up spot for the

1257
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 1: Bronco offense.

1258
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:23,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm thinking about you. You can only play

1259
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:23,880
Speaker 3: the Broncos here.

1260
01:05:24,120 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't overthink it. That's the that is the uh

1261
01:05:27,280 --> 01:05:29,360
Speaker 1: the model. That's gonna be a rap for us. Thank

1262
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,640
Speaker 1: you for listening to the Action Network podcast. You can

1263
01:05:32,680 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 1: hear more of me every week when my guys Sean

1264
01:05:35,080 --> 01:05:38,400
Speaker 1: Kerner talking fantasy DFS player projections, props, all that good

1265
01:05:38,400 --> 01:05:41,920
Speaker 1: stuff over on the Fantasy Flex podcast, and you can

1266
01:05:41,960 --> 01:05:46,560
Speaker 1: hear Stuck talking college football over on the Big Bets

1267
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:50,040
Speaker 1: on Campus podcast. Also, be sure to subscribe to Big

1268
01:05:50,080 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 1: Bets on Campus on YouTube. You can find Stuck on

1269
01:05:53,560 --> 01:05:55,920
Speaker 1: X at Stuggy two. I'm at Chris Raybond. We're at

1270
01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:59,680
Speaker 1: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network.

1271
01:06:00,760 --> 01:06:14,360
Speaker 1: Until next week, Let's get this smipe i Go Action

1272
01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:17,520
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1273
01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:20,800
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1274
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1275
01:06:23,760 --> 01:06:24,560
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