1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is 5 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier, 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money 8 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage 10 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most 11 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for? 12 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody, 13 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. 14 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: When do we have crystal Indeed, we do some very 15 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: very very ominous warning signs coming from Russia about the 16 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: potential threat of them using tactical nuclear weapons. Frankly, it's 17 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: kind of terrifying, and I think the media has not 18 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: taken it seriously, this risk whatsoever. Finally, Washington seems to 19 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 1: be like, oh, maybe this is something we should think about. 20 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: So we have a deep dive into that, into the 21 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: Ukrainian response, into this administration's response, the very latest on 22 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 1: that sabotage of the nord Stream pipeline. We're going to 23 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,320 Speaker 1: go into all of that. We've also got a couple 24 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: of political updates for you. That congressional stock ban that 25 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: they were looking at last week. I know you're going 26 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: to be shocked to learn it just didn't just didn't 27 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 1: come together, Sager. I know they really wanted to get 28 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: it done, but they just couldn't get it. We'll dig 29 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 1: into those details. Also, a big move at the Daily Show, 30 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: Trevor Noah moving on, so we'll break all of that 31 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: down for You've also got Glenn Greenwold on this morning. 32 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: Hopefully fingers Cross will be able to get him in 33 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: to talk about the results of the first round of 34 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 1: voting down in Brazil. Before we get to any of that, 35 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: though our normal announcements, live show, live show up there 36 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: on the screen, we've been planning something extra special for 37 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: everybody in Chicago. It's going to be a lot of fun. 38 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: Go ahead and buy tickets there and we're going to 39 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: make sure that it's going to be a great time 40 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: for everybody, no matter where you're seated. We've got a 41 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 1: lot of participation and stuff that really we're going to 42 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: be able to see live, so I think it will 43 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: be very special. There's a link down there in the 44 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,920 Speaker 1: description if you want to go ahead and nab your tickets. 45 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: We got the hundreds of you already have signed ups. 46 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 1: We're really really excited. Number trying. Let me just say, 47 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: we're trying the things that are a little bit different, yes, 48 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,519 Speaker 1: very different, a lot more audience participation. It's going to 49 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: be very interactive, so we're super excited. So guys, if 50 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: you can grab those tickets before they sell out, we're 51 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 1: psyched about that show. It's going to be an experience, 52 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: live experience, not just a share an experience. Okay, all right, 53 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: Number two, we got the discount going on right now. 54 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: Let's ahead and put that up there on the screen. 55 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 1: Counterpoints Counterpoints Friday. Man, they have a fantastic show on Friday. 56 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 1: I love like a legit fan of that show. Yeah, 57 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: it is so so good. So they've just been doing 58 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 1: such a great job. Ry and Emily over there breaking 59 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: some interesting news about our former employer. That was interesting 60 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 1: watch on our new channel. So anyway, I think they're 61 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: doing a great job if you want to support them 62 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: and really just our expansion and maybe support the mission 63 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: of why we started this show. You got a little 64 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 1: bit of a taste on why exactly things like that 65 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 1: might have been happening with our old one. In terms 66 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: of what happened with Katie Helper, please we've got a 67 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: link down the description. We got the discount going on 68 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: right now for annual members ten percent, and I think 69 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: this will be the last week that we offer it. 70 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 1: So thank you all so much of those who have 71 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: taken advantage means a lot to us and putting us aside. 72 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: I think what happened with Katie Helper being silenced and 73 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: censored over her critique of Israel just shows you why 74 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: it's so important to support independent media, because you know, 75 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: even if you've got an outlet that sort of postures 76 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: like all orientti establishment ori, anti censorship, et cetera, eventually 77 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: you're going to find a line that you're not allowed 78 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: to cross. And you know, that's why it's so important 79 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: to not be beholden to corporate donors or any sort 80 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: of corporate overlord. So thank you guys for supporting us 81 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: and making it possible to do what we do. Here. Yeah, 82 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: that's right, there's no unofficial policies of censorship here I 83 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: can here to ask you that. Indeed, all right, let's 84 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: start with the nuclear issue. Now. I think we've been 85 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: trying to do a job and made measured but also 86 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 1: cover the seriousness. And I think what you said is correct. 87 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: I think it's very important when discussing this not to fearmonger, 88 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: and so let's just very start with the very basic facts. 89 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. Putin giving 90 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: that speech on Friday with the official annexation of those 91 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 1: four regions in eastern Ukraine after the Sham referendum. Now, 92 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: beyond the speech itself and the actual referendum, the points 93 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: that we wanted to zero in on were specifically what 94 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: Putin was saying both about the West and about opening 95 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: and continuing the nuclear sable rattling that we have not 96 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,719 Speaker 1: seen in this world really since the Cuban missile crisis. 97 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: And what he says there specifically is that the last 98 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: fifteen minutes crystal of the speech, the word Ukraine was 99 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 1: not mentioned one time. It was all about posturing this 100 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 1: as a united Russian struggle against the West. Obviously, that 101 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: is to his domestic benefit because of the dramatically unpopular 102 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: mobilization happening right there. The direct quote was the West 103 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: has said for centuries it is bringing freedom and democracy 104 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: to the world. Everything is exactly the opposite. This is 105 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 1: a long time kind of Putinism. I remember in two 106 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 1: thousand and six Bush was lecturing him about democracy and 107 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 1: he was like, we do not want the type of 108 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: democracy that you have given to a rock. That was 109 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: really which, you know, fairpoint. Really, what I've seen from 110 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: Putin is that two thousand and three onward, really the 111 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: invasion of Iraq and really like becoming himself. It was 112 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,239 Speaker 1: in two thousand and seven there was this grand speech 113 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: in the Munich Security Conference where he's basically like, all 114 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: of you were hypocrites. I want nothing to do with you. 115 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,119 Speaker 1: It was like the official Russian break with the West. 116 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: And this is kind of the culmination of that, almost 117 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: like a fifteen year effort of at one point being 118 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: a semi friend of the West and really now posing 119 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 1: himself as the enemy. And the reason why I think 120 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: that this speech was so important was not only for 121 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 1: the referendum, but for making it clear in Putin's eyes 122 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 1: that he views himself at war with the United States 123 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: and with NATO, and if we may not be in 124 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: an exchange now. The reason why that also matters is 125 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: that whenever you posture yourself as at war with the 126 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: West and then you begin your nuclear saber rattling, you're 127 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: making it clear that Ukraine is not the audience here, 128 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:17,919 Speaker 1: the Washington, Berlin, Paris, these are the audiences the lawmakers 129 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,279 Speaker 1: and the policymakers in these regions. And so he brings 130 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 1: up the use of nuclear weapons by the United States 131 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: against Japan, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Allied bombings of German cities, 132 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: the Korean and the Vietnam War, kind of saying, look, 133 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 1: you guys are the ones who created this scenario. Now 134 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 1: we are way well fulfill that and the breaking of 135 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: the nuclear taboo. Yes, and so I mean, basically, he's saying, 136 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: pointing accurately to messed up things that the US has 137 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: done throughout history, and then saying effectively that gives us 138 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: justification to do the same messed up things too, wrongs. 139 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 1: In this instance, he is trying to argue, make it right, 140 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: I mean, and this is effectively what he's been the 141 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: case that he's been making since they ultimately just to 142 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 1: invade Ukraine. And listen, we've covered here extensively. You know, 143 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: the way that the US in particular, the West in general, 144 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: and NATO antagonized him made him feel like, even if 145 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: it was not true, made him feel like we were 146 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: sort of at war with him, like we were out 147 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: to get Russia, and so that all leads to this place, 148 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: of course, not if that takes his culpability away with 149 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: this illegal invasion. But you know what a lot of 150 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: observers were saying is that this was the you know, 151 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: he's used some of this rhetoric before, etc. But this 152 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: was the most sort of concentrated anti US speech that 153 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: they had seen him give, and it was clearly designed 154 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: to scare the West and hold out the possibility of hey, 155 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: y'all drop the bombs first, and we're going to use 156 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: everything that we need in order to defend our territorial integrity, 157 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: which now you know seems to include these four regions 158 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: that they have just said out that we had these votes. 159 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: It was free and fair democracy, of course, during a 160 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: time of war, when we don't even know. I mean, 161 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: this is how insane these referendums were. They can't even 162 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: say exactly where the borders are, and we'll get to 163 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: a little bit more of that when we talk about 164 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,119 Speaker 1: the most recent Ukrainian advances. But now they're saying, okay, 165 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: this is part of Russia as well. So that creates 166 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: a very terrifying situation where it's like, okay, well, if 167 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 1: you're saying this is part of Russia, obviously there's an 168 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: act of war there. Our attacks in that area, is 169 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: that considered an attack on Russia. That's where this gets 170 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: extraordinarily dicey with regards to nuclear weapons, because ultimately, you know, 171 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: the last speech we covered last week, he says, okay, 172 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: this is not a bluff. Well, if you then go 173 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: and strike inside of those areas that you're saying, this 174 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,959 Speaker 1: is my country and you don't respond, then it kind 175 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,199 Speaker 1: of takes away your threat in your power, which is 176 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: what nuclear you know, what nuclear threats are all about, 177 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: as scaring people and trying to die. I'm glad you 178 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: said that because I was going to bring that up, 179 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: which is that as much as I think it is 180 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: very important for the West to have clear red lines 181 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: and policies directed specifically to remove ambiguity from the situation, 182 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: the same as set of Russia, you can't annex a 183 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: country then lose it next day, or like the territory 184 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: and then say yeah, no, but that part's not Russia anymore. 185 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 1: But this part is like, well you can't like what 186 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:10,079 Speaker 1: so Russia is wherever the front line is? I mean, sure, 187 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 1: you know, in effect, but where does the nuclear threat 188 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: come from? Now? Of course, hit that ambiguity is probably 189 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: good for him, but that also leaves a hell of 190 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: a lot of room up to us. We're like, well, 191 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 1: how do we know when to start pushing? And that's 192 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: exactly kind of the fear of the uncertainty he wants 193 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 1: to instill within us. That doesn't diminish, though, the seriousness 194 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: of the situation. Let's put this up there on the screen, 195 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,719 Speaker 1: you know, I think that takeaway whatever anybody in the 196 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: West is talking about, let's take it from the Ukrainians themselves. 197 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 1: Just yet. A couple of days ago, they said the 198 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 1: deputy head of Ukrainian intelligence says, quote, the probability of 199 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: Russia striking Ukraine with a tactical nuclear weapon is very high. 200 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 1: He says, quote. They will target places along the front 201 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: line with lots of personnel and equipment. Now, look, there's 202 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: a lot of different ways to read that. Number one, 203 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 1: maybe he's telling the truth. Number two, maybe you should 204 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: keep reading, because here's what he says. To stop them, 205 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 1: we need more anti aircraft systems and anti rocket systems. 206 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: So obviously he's like, they're gonna nucas and that's why 207 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: you guys need to give us everything under the sun 208 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: in order to stop that. So you got to take 209 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: all of this with a grain of salt. Putin has 210 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 1: got his ambiguity, got his agenda. He wants us to 211 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: stop all aid for Ukraine. Ukraine. Well, this is my 212 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 1: problem with Ukraine is they can't make up their minds 213 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 1: versus Zelenski says, Putin will never Knukus. Now, his deputy 214 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: had it's like, no, no no, no, they're gonna nucas and 215 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: that's why you got to give us weapons. And I'm like, well, 216 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: wake up your goddamn mind here, folks, because I'm getting confused. 217 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 1: Well because initially it was there, don't worry, they're not 218 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: gonna nukas, So you guys should be all in with them. 219 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 1: You should send us all these weapons. Now it's like 220 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: they are gonna nucas, so it's too late to stop them. 221 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: So you got to send us all these weapons, like 222 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: you know, that's that's their approach here in this situation. 223 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 1: All that being said, let's go ahead and put this 224 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: next piece up, because this was very significant as well. 225 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: Ram zag Kadirov, who is the you know, he's the 226 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: like strong man leader of Cheeshnya and a close ally 227 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: of Putin and has been you know, this guy is 228 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: very pro sort of this war and very very hawkish. 229 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 1: He's actually saying that they should use tactical nuclear weapons. 230 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 1: And so you know, this is a significant significant as 231 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,959 Speaker 1: in a long rant clearly not written by the semi 232 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: literate in Russia, not sure in Schechin Kadirov. So they're 233 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: saying he used like a speech writer, like this was 234 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 1: a carefully crafted thing. He accuses the chief of staff 235 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: of ignoring his warnings that the commanding officer of Lineman 236 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: is useless and calls for use of low power nuclear 237 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: weapons that would be those quote unquote tactical nuclear weapons. 238 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: At the end, he closes by saying, the whole situation 239 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: would be great if it weren't so terrible. So the 240 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 1: two things that are not worthy there is I mean, 241 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: he is scathing in his assessment of how the military 242 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:53,839 Speaker 1: operation is going, and then also is pushing for this, 243 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 1: you know, incredible and terrifying escalation of potentially using nuclear weapons. 244 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: And I think it's important to remember the context here, 245 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: which is that the Hawks have gotten their way thus far. 246 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: I mean they have been pushing Putin to do more 247 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: and more and more, and this most recent mobilization and 248 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: you know, the annexation and all of that, those are 249 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: things that the hawkish wing, the most hawkish wing, people 250 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 1: like Kadirov, have been pushing for. This is clearly where 251 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,559 Speaker 1: Putin feels the most pressure. Absolutely, and I can't help 252 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: but feel crystal that this is all controlled opposition. I 253 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: know I've said it before, but if the Kremlin criminalizes 254 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: in jails, Alexi, Navalni and all the other piece snicks 255 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,319 Speaker 1: and drafts them, and then you leave the only opposition 256 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 1: left and you're like okay, well, and they shape the 257 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: debate such that the only person you can ever give 258 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: into is the criticism of the guy who has been 259 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: known for over a decade is quote Putin's pitbull. I 260 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 1: can't help but feel that this is all kind of 261 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,559 Speaker 1: controlled at the top. I'm not saying it's genuine. I 262 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: think Kadirov rightfully would feel this way. But the fact 263 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 1: that he's allowed to say it and suffer no consequences, 264 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:57,199 Speaker 1: I think that in of itself speaks volume. So look, Kadirov, 265 00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: he's always been this way. He's always advocated for much, 266 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: you know, stronger use of weapons, the brutal tactics that 267 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: they use in Chechnya, in Ukraine. He's going after that 268 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: commanding officer in Lineman. I think also setting up the 269 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: tail for when that officer either dies or gets sent 270 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 1: to prison or fired and eventually then set to prison 271 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: in size like be sent to the front lines barefoot, right, Yeah, 272 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to live much longer. But 273 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: the of course, what we have to focus in on 274 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 1: there is the use of quote low power nuclear weapons. 275 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: And again I just think we need to explain this 276 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 1: to everybody, which is that to me, there is no 277 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: such thing as a quote tactical nuke, And the reason 278 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: why is it's a lot like gas like when using gas. 279 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: You know, a low grade quote unquote tactical nuke is 280 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: something that you could conceivably put into an artillery shell. 281 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: It would only kill like fifty people something like I'm 282 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 1: saying only fifty people. Of course, it's like more of 283 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 1: like a city block. Yeah, it was leveling the entire 284 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: st exactly. However, the taboo that it would break would 285 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: just be so grand strategic. And I gotta use these 286 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 1: terms carefully because this is what they mean. There's like 287 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: different levels of warfare. So there's like tactical, operational, strategic, 288 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 1: and then depending on who you talk to, like grand strategic. 289 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: Grand strategic is like the conference at Yalta with Churchill 290 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: and Roosevelt and Stalin be like, this is all what 291 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: we're going to do. Operational would be like Eisenhower planning 292 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: the invasion, and then tactical would literally be like the 293 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: commander of D Day and the guys who were on 294 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: the ground, so like that just at a very basic level. 295 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: So tactical would mean a tactical quote unquote nuke would 296 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: accomplish a tactical goal of wiping out this position on 297 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: the front line. But the reason that I don't think 298 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: that that even exists is the same debate we had 299 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: in the nineteen fifties is anything that goes nuclear is 300 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: just inherently strategic given the stakes, the escalation ladder and 301 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 1: the unleashing which is that the road between the artillery shell, 302 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: which is a nuke, and the ICBM, which can kill 303 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: thirty million, those are effectively like a day away from 304 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 1: each other. And that's why this strategic, you know, the 305 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: strategic use of nuclear weapons, even in a quote unquote 306 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: tactical sense, would just break everything. Yeah, that's why we do. 307 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 1: Even if they are bluffing, even if these guys are idiots, morons, 308 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: you know, I've said this before. They could be bluffing 309 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: a thousand times. But if they aren't bluffing on the first, 310 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: the tail risk of the thousand and one, the tail 311 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: risk is so high they have no choice but to 312 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: take every single time that they utter it seriously and 313 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: analyze it the consequences, the risks, and everything else. And 314 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: I do think that there has never been a time 315 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: in this conflict when the use of nuclear weapons was 316 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 1: more likely, simply because Putin is under a lot of 317 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: domestic political pressure. He is doing very poorly in terms 318 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: of this war. He is increasingly desperate, and he's already 319 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: doing a bunch of like fairly crazy stuff. I mean, 320 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: the mobilization was crazy, The referendums were kind of crazy. 321 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: This is the sort of you know, these are the 322 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: sort of grasping desperate measures that people take when they're 323 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 1: left with no other good options. So that's why that's 324 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: this ultimately is so frightening to the question of tactical 325 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. I mean, there is a ongoing debate within 326 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: the like community of scholars and researchers who study and 327 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: analyze this stuff whether or not such a thing is real, 328 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: whether you can sort of can use this tactical nuclear 329 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 1: weapon and avoid that chain of escalation that ultimately leads 330 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: to the giant ICBM. The very fact that there's a 331 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 1: debate tells me there's no such thing as a tactical 332 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: nuclear weapon. Can anyone guarantee that you don't end up 333 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: on that escalation chain? No, they can't. That tells you 334 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: that you have to treat this as the nuclear redline 335 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: that it ultimately is. And so I mean, as we're 336 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: you know, getting more clarity on exactly how NATO would respond, 337 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: how the wester respond potentially if there's a tactical use 338 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: of a tactical nuclear weapon or some sort of demonstration, 339 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 1: which I think is probably less likely for reasons that 340 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: you know, aren't we could get into. But I think 341 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: the most likely use. Is this sort of like on 342 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 1: the battlefield tactical nuclear weapon use. So they're saying, effectively, okay, 343 00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: we probably respond with conventional military so we wouldn't respond 344 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: in kind, but that could include strikes inside of Russia. Okay, 345 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 1: well then what does Russia do back? Okay, then what 346 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: do we do back? I mean, that's how you can 347 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: end up very easily with this conflagration that goes from 348 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 1: like what we're in now, which is sort of like 349 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: low key World War three, into full blown World War three. Yeah. 350 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: I think that's right. And I'll just end this particular 351 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: discussion with a great a quote from John F. Kennedy quote. 352 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 1: Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers 353 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to the 354 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: choice of either a humiliating retreat or nuclear war. The 355 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: last of our great presidents to actually have to deal 356 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 1: with the crisis like this, and who learned a lot 357 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 1: from the Cuban missile crisis. So let's then and go 358 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: and move on to how would we respond if such 359 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: a thing the unthinkable were to quote happen. And I 360 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 1: think this is where we need to start parsing language 361 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: and look at things very very very carefully. First of all, 362 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: President Biden directly responding to Putin's speech and the nuclear threat, 363 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 1: let's take a listen. I want to say one more thing. 364 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: I want to also speak to mister Putin's remarks this morning. 365 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:08,120 Speaker 1: You know, Americans, allies are not going emphasize, are not 366 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,360 Speaker 1: going to be intimidated, are not going to be intimidated 367 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: by Putin and his reckless words and threats. He's not 368 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,199 Speaker 1: going to scare us, and he doesn't or intimidate us. 369 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:22,959 Speaker 1: Putin's actions are a sign he's struggling. The sham referenda 370 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: he carried out, and this routine he put on don't worries, 371 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: not on there if you're looking okay, and the sham 372 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: routine that he put on this morning, showing the unity 373 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 1: and you know as people holding hands together, Well, the 374 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 1: United States is never going to recognize this, and quite frankly, 375 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: the world's not going to recognize it either. He can't 376 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: seize his neighbor's territory and get away with it. As 377 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: as simple as that, inspiring words from our fearless leader 378 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 1: there from President Biden. His response specifically to the nuclear 379 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: threat now went really deep on this one because there's 380 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: a lot of rhetoric. Now, we spoke previously Sunday, last Sunday, 381 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: almost exactly eight days ago, Jake Sullivan says on CBS News, quote, 382 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: there will be catastrophic, catastrophic consequences for Russia if it 383 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: does use any sort of nuclear weapon inside of Ukraine. 384 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: That is could mean anything. I mean, it could mean 385 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 1: more sanctions, it could mean literally a military strike. As 386 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: you allude to, I have been reading with a lot 387 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 1: of great interest. Let's put this one up there on 388 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: the screen. The reason to take this particular article I'm 389 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 1: showing you guys all seriously. This is from the New 390 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: York Times. It says, quote in Washington, Putin's nuclear threats 391 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: stir grow alarm. And the reason why is that you 392 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: kind of this is a little bit of inside baseball. 393 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 1: But the lead byline on this story is a guy 394 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: named David Sanger. Now, Sanger is probably the pre eminent 395 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: quote unquote foreign policy reporter in Washington. Generals have literally 396 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: been convicted for leaking the world's most secret weapons to him. 397 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,640 Speaker 1: He's the guy who broke stories on Iran and Masad. Anyway, 398 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: my point is is that if I read something of 399 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 1: his What I'm taking very seriously are the background quotes, 400 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 1: because I know that the people at the very very 401 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 1: very highest level are speaking to him to kind of 402 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: shape the conversation. So here's what he says. Quote in 403 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: background conversations, A range of officials suggested if Russia detonated 404 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 1: a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil, the options include 405 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: unplugging Russia from the world economy, some kind of mileritary 406 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 1: response quote, though one that would most likely be delivered 407 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 1: by the Ukrainians with Western provided conventional weapons. The reason 408 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: to take that line very very seriously is that NATO 409 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 1: right now is very split. This appears to me to 410 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 1: be a leak by the Biden administration saying we are 411 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 1: not like some of our NATO allies who would commit 412 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: to a full blown conventional response by the United States 413 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: against Russia. We would provide Ukraine basically. I mean this actually, 414 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 1: in my opinion, kind of makes sense, which is that 415 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 1: you would give basically say, all right, Ukraine, you basically 416 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 1: get whatever you want. You get everything that you want. 417 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 1: If they're gonna nuke you, then this is a full 418 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: blown conflict. But we are not going to ourselves get 419 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 1: into a war with Russia. Now this is the view 420 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: from Washington. If I had to guess, I bet you 421 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: Jake Sullivan is one of those. Again I'm speculating, but 422 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: I'm just using like kind of what I know about, 423 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,680 Speaker 1: like how these things get shaped in order to bring 424 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: it to you. The second part though, and this is 425 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 1: also to be taken very seriously because it shows you 426 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:25,959 Speaker 1: to split in NATO. Let's put the next one up 427 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,440 Speaker 1: there on the screen. This is from Poland. Poland and 428 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,360 Speaker 1: the Baltics, of course, are the most hawkish members of 429 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:34,679 Speaker 1: the NATO alliance. They say that if Putin were to 430 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,439 Speaker 1: use any sort of nuclear weapon, that there would be 431 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 1: a conventional military strike by NATO, again not provided by 432 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: NATO to Ukraine. By NATO against the Russians. They say 433 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 1: they do not rule out the deployment of NATO forces 434 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,919 Speaker 1: on Ukrainian soil and say that Russia can be struck 435 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: without NATO entering Ukraine. The Polish Foreign Minister, and by 436 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 1: the way, these comments were made in Washington after a 437 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: meeting with Jake Sullivan, said that they have drawn a 438 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: red line on the need for a conventional military response 439 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:11,439 Speaker 1: to a Russian tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine. That's the split. 440 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 1: Who gets their way nobody knows. And the reason why 441 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 1: also that this matters is that listen, I mean, Poland 442 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: and the Baltics are NATO countries. We could have a 443 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: response and they could also have a response, but how 444 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: Russia responds still basically, whoever the most hawkish member of 445 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,959 Speaker 1: the NATO alliances, if whatever they do, we're all in 446 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: it together because of the Article five. So if let's 447 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: say Poland were to strike inside of Russia in response 448 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 1: to Ukraine, I mean, I don't necessarily think they would, 449 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,400 Speaker 1: but it's within the realm of possibility. Well, then Washington 450 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 1: is now at war with Russia. And do you think 451 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: the reason Poland is so hawkish and really has been 452 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 1: from the beginning, is just because of their proximity and 453 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 1: they feel there were Russian slave state for one hundreds 454 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:55,480 Speaker 1: of year. I mean, I've been to Poland. I went 455 00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: to their Two of the Unknown Soldier, I mean it's 456 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: literally like soldiers are for sold soldier like this one 457 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:02,679 Speaker 1: was killed by the Russians in the eighteen fifties. This 458 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: one was killed by the Russians in nineteen ten. This 459 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 1: guy was shot in a square. I mean, they beare 460 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: the scars. If anybody's ever been to Poland knows exactly 461 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. But in the Baltic States too, 462 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, having been there, like the hate 463 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 1: for Russia runs real deep there. And also look, it's proximity, right, 464 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: which is that they're right there their former Soviet slave states. 465 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: Like I get it in terms of how I would 466 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,680 Speaker 1: think they forced as a more direct existential threat. I 467 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: mean it is existential threat to them in a way 468 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: because to them it's well also you have to think 469 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 1: about a nuclear fallout. And I'm trying to preside all 470 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: sides because as people here know, I'm not exactly a 471 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: huge fan of the Baltic States. I think that they're 472 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: far too hawkish and I think they could easily drag 473 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 1: us into a war. But if trying to put myself 474 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 1: into them, I get it, which is that you're smaller country. 475 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,879 Speaker 1: You know, you're next to this great power who historically 476 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 1: has ruled you, enslaved you. You probably have a relative 477 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 1: who was either imprisoned or like shot by the Communists 478 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,120 Speaker 1: or the fascists, so you have like a deep memory 479 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: of war. You have this geographical proximity a nuclear I mean, imagine, 480 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: how would you feel if there was a new going 481 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 1: off in Mexico, right, I mean, or Canada. You know, 482 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 1: given where we are here, I would freak out too, 483 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: So I understand like why and what response they would give. 484 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,920 Speaker 1: Of course, though we then have to decide what response 485 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 1: are we gonna give. So I think it's very important 486 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: here for us to present that there is clearly a 487 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 1: split strategically in NATO. I think if I had to guess, Washington, Berlin, 488 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 1: and Paris are probably on the side of no, We're 489 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 1: not going to war, like we got way too much 490 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,880 Speaker 1: to risk already. Our economies are a mess, and that's 491 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: why they're floating quote unquote unplugging Russia from the world economy. 492 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,239 Speaker 1: But honestly, I don't know how much more what else 493 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 1: you could do? You know. At the same time, something 494 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,359 Speaker 1: I've been reading a lot is that the Chinese and 495 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 1: the Indians may be a great check here, which is 496 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 1: that if Russia nuke's Ukraine in any way, even tactically, 497 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,159 Speaker 1: there's no way. I mean, it's possible, but I just 498 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,199 Speaker 1: seem very unlikely. I think at that point China and 499 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: India would face actual economic sanctions by the West if 500 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: they were to continue buying Russian oil and floating the economy, 501 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,439 Speaker 1: which would turn Russia essentially into like a hermit kingdom 502 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: like North Korea. Wait though nuclear from a nuclear perspective, 503 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:03,919 Speaker 1: that may not actually be a good thing. And that's 504 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 1: why this whole thing is such a nightmare exactly. Yeah, 505 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,360 Speaker 1: I mean, there's no good response at this point. Yeah, 506 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,359 Speaker 1: that is a real open question of what China and 507 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,439 Speaker 1: India would do in that circumstance, because obviously they've been 508 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 1: key economic lifelines for Russia at this point. And you know, 509 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:21,159 Speaker 1: in the beginning, when oil prices were extremely high, Russia 510 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 1: was like honestly doing fine. Now the price has fallen, 511 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 1: it's a little more difficult for them in order to 512 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: financi a war machine. If you cut them off from 513 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: if China and India cut them off as well, then 514 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 1: they would be in pretty dire straits in terms of 515 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 1: the economics of this thing. But one other thing I 516 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,360 Speaker 1: wanted to point out that was in that New York 517 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,199 Speaker 1: Times article. It's just an interesting look at some of 518 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: the Russian domestic politics and the debates that are playing 519 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,439 Speaker 1: out there. Dmitry Medvedev, they say, a former Russian President, 520 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: the hawkish vice chairman of mister Putin's Security Council. He 521 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 1: laid out a thesis this past week in a post 522 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: on telegram. He says if Russia were forced to use 523 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,159 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons against Ukraine, it was unlikely NATO would intervene 524 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: militarily because of the risk that a direct attack on 525 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 1: Russia could lead to all out nuclear war. Quote overseas 526 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 1: and European demagogues are not going to perish in a 527 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,400 Speaker 1: nuclear apocalypse. I hope he was rried about that. Therefore, 528 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,959 Speaker 1: they will swallow the use of any weapon in the 529 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:17,639 Speaker 1: current conflict. Now I actually hope that that is correct. However, 530 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 1: clearly the goal of that sort of messaging is to 531 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 1: say it'll be fine, like, go ahead and do it. 532 00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 1: It's not going to be a problem. You're not really 533 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 1: going to face any sort of significant retaliation because they're 534 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: going to be too frightened to escalate to the next level, 535 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: and they're not really going to change their strategy here. 536 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 1: I don't know, of course, to be honest, I do 537 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 1: think if they knew Cukraine I think will probably be 538 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,600 Speaker 1: in a war with Russia. And it gives me no 539 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,359 Speaker 1: pleasure to say that I just looking at the escalation chain, 540 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: looking at NATO, I don't see a way out. I 541 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,159 Speaker 1: just think that even if we did not want to, 542 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: given our entangled alliances, given the real red line that 543 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,159 Speaker 1: it would cross for a lot of these Baltic states, 544 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 1: we are bound to them in blood through Article five. 545 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 1: I do not see a world where it's possible. I 546 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: mean the place where Putin is actually accurate, and much 547 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 1: more so than I think the Western media is in 548 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 1: saying this is a proxy war. It's already a proxy 549 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 1: war given the fact that, look, the Ukrainians have been 550 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:14,600 Speaker 1: incredibly brave, I mean the courageous, like savvy, all of that. Yeah, 551 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 1: and we are about to get into their latest advances. 552 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 1: But I mean, no one series would say this was 553 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 1: at all possible without overwhelming US in particular support, weapons, training, 554 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: and crucially intelligence. So you know, this is already a 555 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 1: war and all all but name between US and Russia. 556 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 1: So it's not at all hard to imagine moving to 557 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 1: that next step of actually being outright at war with 558 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 1: Russian and acknowledge in the Western process. I just have 559 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: to go back to the total failure of the media 560 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: from the beginning to present any of the potential consequences 561 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 1: of our strategy and our short circuiting of diplomacy, and 562 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,240 Speaker 1: our total lack of desire to engage or try to 563 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 1: push for peace talks. You know, none of the potential 564 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 1: fallout and consequences which were predictable. I mean, we're not 565 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 1: rocket scientists here, but ending up in this place where 566 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,560 Speaker 1: we are right now, which is a terrifying, terrifying spot 567 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,720 Speaker 1: to be. This was entirely foreseeable from the beginning based 568 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:17,440 Speaker 1: on the US and UK policy. Those downside risks were 569 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,919 Speaker 1: never presented in the press, never, And so I just 570 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,399 Speaker 1: feel like there's this massive hole in the conversation of 571 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,400 Speaker 1: anyone who's you know, not saying like, oh, Russia's great 572 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 1: and actually this is justified, et cetera, et cetera, Like 573 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: that's a crazy view. But there's no there's no discussion of, like, hey, 574 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 1: what's in the best interest of humanity and in continuing 575 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 1: to have this world and for the US and maybe 576 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 1: just continuing to escalate and escalate and escalate and short 577 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: circuit diplomacy, maybe there's some cost of consequences to that. 578 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: And you know, there's polling that says that pushing for 579 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 1: diplomacy that is the mainstream position of the American public. 580 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 1: That is what the US public wants to see, because 581 00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 1: people aren't stupid. That's the only way this thing ends ultimate. 582 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 1: And yet that view, which is the mainstream view, totally absent. 583 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 1: I mean, there are still few outlets out there that 584 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: are really trying to make that case whatsoever. And you're 585 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,479 Speaker 1: really shunned if you even suggest it. Well, it's hard 586 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: at all. It's hard to say, right because people will say, oh, 587 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: you'r pro capitulation. I'm like, listen, First of all, I'm 588 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 1: not Ukrainian, so like what happens there doesn't really have 589 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 1: any effect on me. So that's number one. So I 590 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: can I'm not pro I'm not capitulating anything like. This 591 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: isn't my territory. It's not even a NATO ally. Frankly, 592 00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 1: you know, we have no obligation. We have no obligation 593 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: to do anything to them at all. It's kind of 594 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 1: out of the goodness of our hearts that we're even 595 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,720 Speaker 1: doing so. But number two, which is that look, they're like, 596 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,280 Speaker 1: what are you saying that Eastern Ukraine, like Ukraine should 597 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 1: stop fighting. I'm like, listen, I mean, if I was 598 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 1: Ukrainian I wouldn't stop fighting. But guess what, I'm not Ukrainian. 599 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 1: We're the people who are giving Ukraine their weapons, and 600 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: so I get to decide what weapons I give you 601 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 1: and what I don't. We've already done that. No, the 602 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 1: Biden administration, we have a strategic goal that is higher 603 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 1: level than Ukraine, So we get to decide what weapons 604 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 1: systems are not. Well, then it gets to the point of, well, 605 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 1: may you get certain weapons systems based on what diplomacy 606 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 1: that you take with regards to our greater strategic interests, 607 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,680 Speaker 1: Like here's the deal. You know, iyeg Or actually sent 608 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 1: me this head of the Ukrainian military or somebody did 609 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 1: an interview where he basically admitted He's like, before the 610 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 1: US came in, we would have run out of AMMO 611 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 1: in three days. So it's like, look, I mean, they 612 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 1: don't exist without us. They literally do not exist as 613 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 1: a country without the United States. Then I think that 614 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 1: we should take a heavy handed role as we did 615 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 1: during the Six Day War with the Israelis. And you know, 616 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,480 Speaker 1: even the Israelis, these Raelis were actually a great power 617 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 1: military in their own right who beat the Arabs by themselves, 618 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 1: not just with the US. Ukrainians are not like that 619 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: at all. They are literally only exists because of the 620 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 1: United States. And here's the thing, it's a posture. It's 621 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:49,440 Speaker 1: fake when Biden and co. Pretend like, oh, we're hands 622 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: off right. No, you say they should take a heavy hand. 623 00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 1: They already are taking a heavy hand. It's just they 624 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 1: want the appearance of Oh, it's just all the Ukrainians. No, 625 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 1: this is going exactly the way that the US wants 626 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 1: it to go. I mean, that's why this really is, 627 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 1: in a fact, a proxy war. And if we had 628 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: pressed for you got to sit down and negotiat it. Sorry, 629 00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: I know you don't want to, you know, give it 630 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 1: crime or make these territorial concessions. But we're not going 631 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 1: to World War three. So and we're not giving you 632 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,440 Speaker 1: any more weapons. If you don't sit down a negotiating table. 633 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 1: Let me tell you they would be there in hartbeat. 634 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 1: Now listen, it's putting a good actor. Can Is there 635 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 1: any guarantee? Of course not, but you don't know unless 636 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: you freaking try. And the other thing that is driving 637 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 1: me crazy is you mentioned the idea of like, oh, 638 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 1: this would be appeasement. Okay, you can't have it both ways. 639 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,959 Speaker 1: Where you say, on the one hand, oh, if this 640 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,760 Speaker 1: came to a negotiated settlement, that would embold and puting 641 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: you might just roll throughout Europe, and then on the 642 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: other hand, be like, this is pathetic and they're getting routed, 643 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 1: Like those two things don't exist. This can't coexist. This 644 00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: is clearly not gone well for Russia. The idea that 645 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: they would be eager to do something like this again 646 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 1: somewhere else on the continent, I think is ridiculous. This 647 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,520 Speaker 1: has been a tot disaster. His whole regime is threatened 648 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 1: at this point, and you know, there's mass descent. I 649 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 1: don't know what the numbers are, but there's clearly hundreds 650 00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 1: of thousands of Russians that are literally fleeing the country 651 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,160 Speaker 1: right now. The economic situation is not good, like, this 652 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: has not gone well for Russia. So the idea that 653 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 1: this would be appeasement and oh, they just be emboldened 654 00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 1: to go run over whatever country next, I think that's silly, 655 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 1: and I think it does not match up with the 656 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 1: other rhetoric coming out of the press that you know, 657 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 1: they've they're military spathetic, they've gotten routed everywhere they've been, 658 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 1: They're incompetent. They're you know, not a great power military whatsoever. 659 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: So you can't have both narratives at the same time. 660 00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 1: I agree. I mean, and look, and I get very 661 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,320 Speaker 1: frustrated by this type of retic They're like, well, if 662 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: you let Ukraine go, then they're going to move into Poland. 663 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 1: No they're not. We have a nuclear obligation to Poland. 664 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: We literally nuke Moscow on behalf of Warsaw. We don't 665 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 1: have the same red line. We don't have a Senate 666 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 1: ratified treaty obligation to go to war for Ukraine. We 667 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,480 Speaker 1: do for all the Baltic states and for Poland. The 668 00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: reason that you have alliances is to actually have some 669 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 1: level of clay on like what you're going to defend 670 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 1: and what you're not And by definition, what you're not 671 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 1: going to defend is quote unquote up for grabs or 672 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: at the very least in a gray area of what 673 00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 1: matters and what doesn't. So look obvious, this is a 674 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: very long winded, uh you know kind of criticism, go 675 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 1: deep on all of that. But I think it matters. 676 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 1: I think this stuff matters. I think the debate is missing. 677 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 1: There is nothing that matters more than this right now. 678 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,680 Speaker 1: I mean literally nothing. And that's why I'm so frustrated, 679 00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 1: is like, nowhere in the mainstream press has that view 680 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 1: and that alarm been sounding. You know, in a lot 681 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 1: of ways, after sort of the initial days, there was 682 00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: a there was a lull in any sort of coverage 683 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 1: and certainly any of the downside risks there have. These 684 00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 1: military aid packages have just sailed through, one after another 685 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 1: after another, zero debate, zero oversight, zero debate, and now 686 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: oh lo and behold, you end up in this place 687 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 1: where you're facing down a really serious threat of potentially 688 00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 1: crossing that nuclear red line, and suddenly there like, oh 689 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 1: my god, this is scary. Yeah, no kidding, this was 690 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 1: scary from the beginning, and ending up in this place 691 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 1: was entirely predictable. Yeah, that's right. At the same time, 692 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,279 Speaker 1: there have been more Ukrainian advances on the battlefield. Let's 693 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:13,960 Speaker 1: go ahead and put this map up on the screen. 694 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 1: You can see it's like a little animation here. You 695 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,359 Speaker 1: can see Ukraine success in regaining territories in September. First, 696 00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: they continue to push further east. They retook a crucial 697 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 1: transport hub of Lyman yesterday. I don't really know how 698 00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:30,719 Speaker 1: to say that I think it's Lyman, but we'll just 699 00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,879 Speaker 1: go with that. And so this is, I mean, part 700 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 1: of why this is so humiliating for Russia is Lyman 701 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 1: was part of the territory that they supposedly just annexed 702 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,880 Speaker 1: and then like literally a day later, they've lost it, 703 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,799 Speaker 1: which again, why these referendums even if you thought like, oh, 704 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 1: they did everything to make it free and fair, which 705 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,840 Speaker 1: is absurd and preposterous. But let's just say that you 706 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,480 Speaker 1: really think that the idea that you can set a 707 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 1: boundary line right now in the middle of a worn 708 00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:01,319 Speaker 1: and invasion and occupied territory is ridiculous, Like all these 709 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 1: people were Russians yesterday and now they're Ukrainians again. Uh, 710 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 1: and where does your referendums stand now? And what are 711 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,360 Speaker 1: what are the recriminations you You just issued a nuclear 712 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,440 Speaker 1: threat that was supposed to cover all of the territory 713 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,480 Speaker 1: of Russia that Lyman two days ago, you know, supposedly 714 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 1: was part of and now it's lost it. Just that's 715 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,920 Speaker 1: why this is so ultimately humiliating. Let's go head and 716 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. Uh. So this is 717 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,840 Speaker 1: from the Guardian. They say humiliation for Vladimir Putin is 718 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 1: Ukrainians liberate key city of Lyman. Military defeat and Dunettes 719 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,520 Speaker 1: comes hours after Moscow declared the region was Russian territory forever. 720 00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,280 Speaker 1: Earlier on Saturday, Ukraine's armed forces said they'd entirely surrounded 721 00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 1: the city, trapping thousands of Russian soldiers inside. The Russians, 722 00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,600 Speaker 1: they said, could either surrender, try to escape, or die altogether. 723 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,400 Speaker 1: And they you know, there's reports of Russians basically fleeing, 724 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 1: leaving behind equipment, all of those sorts of things. So, yeah, 725 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 1: that's the very latest in terms of Ukrainian battlefield advances. 726 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,279 Speaker 1: So even I think on and we'll play a little 727 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:04,239 Speaker 1: bit of what Russian State TV is saying. But they've 728 00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:05,759 Speaker 1: kind of had this idea of like, oh, we've got 729 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,479 Speaker 1: these territories and now this is these are just ours. Well, 730 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,799 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians have a say in how that goes as well. 731 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, absolutely, I mean it is a humiliating defeat 732 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,759 Speaker 1: for the Russians there to happen right at the time 733 00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 1: of the referendum. Also, if you're a Ukrainian, can you 734 00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,920 Speaker 1: think of a better obligate or a better reason to 735 00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:23,120 Speaker 1: fight than to humiliate Putin? Literally on the day of 736 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:27,960 Speaker 1: signing those agreements. Let's just underscore what you said previously, 737 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 1: which is that this ain't going so well for Russia. 738 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,960 Speaker 1: Like things right now over there domestically are a bit 739 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:38,319 Speaker 1: of a disaster, and I think underscoring that consistently on 740 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,399 Speaker 1: the military front is very important. You also found this, 741 00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 1: which I think is amazing and just highlights the consternation 742 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:47,680 Speaker 1: at home in Russia. Let's put this up there on 743 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,240 Speaker 1: the screen. This is a clip that we're showing those 744 00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 1: who are watching. We have subtitles there. We didn't want 745 00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 1: to play it for because we know that many people 746 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:59,160 Speaker 1: are listening. But what you essentially watch is you see 747 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:03,279 Speaker 1: a Russian pundit reveal that they are not supposed to 748 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:07,080 Speaker 1: mention the loss that has just happened in Linemen. But 749 00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,000 Speaker 1: then he has to say, in broader terms, we know 750 00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:13,480 Speaker 1: that everyone everyone knows things are not going well right 751 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,840 Speaker 1: now for Russian troops. And then some idiot chimes in 752 00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 1: and goes, well, you know, Kiev might start bombing Moscow immediately. 753 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,200 Speaker 1: That is the level of this reminds me like Soviet times. 754 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,800 Speaker 1: It's like when you have something when everybody in the 755 00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 1: population knew was true, but you just weren't allowed to 756 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,040 Speaker 1: say it. He just slipped and he was like, yeah, 757 00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,520 Speaker 1: but you know, also everybody knows. And then some idiot 758 00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,919 Speaker 1: immediately just shifts to the propaganda of yeah, but Kiev 759 00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 1: might start bombing Moscow anytime soon. I mean, they don't 760 00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,520 Speaker 1: have the capability to do that. The point is is 761 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:47,120 Speaker 1: that this loss on the battlefield in Lineman, which arguably 762 00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,239 Speaker 1: may even be a bigger strategic victory for the Ukrainians 763 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,600 Speaker 1: than that previous breakthrough that they've had. You know, if 764 00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:54,440 Speaker 1: they had done this one first, we would be describing 765 00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,600 Speaker 1: it as like just in astronomical terms, as the first one. 766 00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:01,000 Speaker 1: It is a concerted battlefield victories by the Ukrainians in 767 00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,759 Speaker 1: the east and in the south. And to watch that, 768 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,319 Speaker 1: I think the next one there, let's put that up 769 00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,960 Speaker 1: there just to give people again and underscore that idea, like, 770 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,719 Speaker 1: look at how much territory is moving there in the 771 00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 1: east and the south, Crystal and all of this is 772 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,480 Speaker 1: happening at the exact same time that the Russians are 773 00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:20,000 Speaker 1: holding these referendums, which it's like a split screen of 774 00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,680 Speaker 1: which reality exactly do you want to believe? And that's 775 00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:27,279 Speaker 1: what you see with the State TV discussion there where 776 00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,799 Speaker 1: the one dude is like, y'all are living in like 777 00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 1: a fairy tale land. You're imagining that these terror Like, 778 00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,080 Speaker 1: how do we even debate when you're pretending these lines 779 00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 1: are here and there set and we don't even really 780 00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:39,400 Speaker 1: know where the lines are. And you're not even allowed 781 00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,759 Speaker 1: to say that part of this territory that we were 782 00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:45,799 Speaker 1: pretending was ours has now been taken back by the Ukrainians. 783 00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,920 Speaker 1: So you know, it's always interesting when a little bit 784 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,799 Speaker 1: of reality slips there into Russian State TV. I think 785 00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,919 Speaker 1: you're absolutely correct. At the same time, the bold move 786 00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,560 Speaker 1: from Zelensky and the Ukrainians, let's go ahead and put 787 00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,480 Speaker 1: this up on the screen. They now say they're applying 788 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,520 Speaker 1: for NATO membership. Sager, we are de facto allies already, 789 00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:07,080 Speaker 1: Zelenski says, de facto we have already proven compatibility with 790 00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,719 Speaker 1: Lion standards. Ukraine is applying to confirment de jora by 791 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,879 Speaker 1: an expedited procedure. Now, if you've been following this, you'll 792 00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:17,160 Speaker 1: recall the fact that Ukraine, that NATO membership was held 793 00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:20,680 Speaker 1: out to. Ukraine was one of the sort of things 794 00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:24,360 Speaker 1: that antagonized Putin and led to help to create the 795 00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:28,480 Speaker 1: conditions for this conflict to start with. So and then, 796 00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,680 Speaker 1: obviously the other piece of this that is crazy is 797 00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,319 Speaker 1: if they are NATO allies, then we are obligated to 798 00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:36,879 Speaker 1: go in full force on their behalf, which I don't 799 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,760 Speaker 1: think is anything that any of us ultimately want to see. 800 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 1: But you know, that's basically what he's sort of angling 801 00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,799 Speaker 1: for is we should be direct allies. You should be 802 00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 1: all in with us. It shouldn't be this just like 803 00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,239 Speaker 1: supplying us from behind. You should be here defending us, 804 00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,319 Speaker 1: because we've already proven that we're good allies here and 805 00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,560 Speaker 1: I know I'm not supposed to shred Churchhill the Nexcelenskae. 806 00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,280 Speaker 1: His arrogance actually drives me crazy because what he says 807 00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,960 Speaker 1: is we are already a de facto member of NATO. 808 00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:05,560 Speaker 1: No you're not. You know, we don't just get to 809 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,640 Speaker 1: choose whether you're NATO or not. NATO gets to decide 810 00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,520 Speaker 1: whether you're in NATO. And luckily there are some people 811 00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,719 Speaker 1: with some brains who remain in the White House, Jake 812 00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:18,000 Speaker 1: Sullivan and Biden very clearly just pushing this aside whenever 813 00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:21,280 Speaker 1: they're asked about it. Let's take a listen Yeah, Ukraine 814 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,959 Speaker 1: is seeking accelerated membership in NATO. Is that something that's 815 00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,600 Speaker 1: possible or something you would seriously considered. The United States 816 00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,040 Speaker 1: has been clear for decades that we support an open 817 00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:35,040 Speaker 1: door policy for NATO. Any decision on NATO membership is 818 00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:38,920 Speaker 1: between the thirty Allies and the country's aspiring to join 819 00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,279 Speaker 1: right now. Our view is that the best way for 820 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,040 Speaker 1: US to support Ukraine is through practical on the ground 821 00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:49,720 Speaker 1: support in Ukraine, and that the process in Brussels should 822 00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,200 Speaker 1: be taken up at a different time. That's a very 823 00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,719 Speaker 1: nice way of saying no, not right, saying at a 824 00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:59,600 Speaker 1: different time. I love that. That's that honestly diplomat diplomacy 825 00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,520 Speaker 1: pro being like, we support you Grain absolutely, there's an 826 00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:05,120 Speaker 1: open door policy for any nation, not just policy. He's like, 827 00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,279 Speaker 1: but that decision would be taken up at Brussels right now. 828 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,440 Speaker 1: We're just gonna focus on this, which is like kind 829 00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:11,400 Speaker 1: of like a head pat and be like, that's nice, Zelenski, 830 00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,480 Speaker 1: but it's not gonna happen. I really don't know what 831 00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:18,640 Speaker 1: to make of Zelenski's move, because I he seems to 832 00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,719 Speaker 1: have misread this almost completely, like just because everybody in 833 00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,520 Speaker 1: the West is upset about Putin's nuclear saber rattling. Everyone 834 00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,920 Speaker 1: is happy about your battlefield victories does not mean you're 835 00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:33,160 Speaker 1: getting a nuclear guarantee from the United States, Like, what 836 00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,200 Speaker 1: are you thinking. It reminds me when he went before 837 00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:39,279 Speaker 1: the Israeli kness It and he started invoking the Holocaust 838 00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,640 Speaker 1: and even they were like, hey, dude, like just so 839 00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,719 Speaker 1: they're like, you don't do that here. That's not the 840 00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:48,440 Speaker 1: same as whether Israel is going to provide military support 841 00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,440 Speaker 1: for Ukrainey. You know what it reminded me of is 842 00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:52,359 Speaker 1: at the beginning of this conflict, when there were some 843 00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,040 Speaker 1: like moronic us hawks that were like, we should we 844 00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:58,279 Speaker 1: should institute a no flies though remember and Zelenski was 845 00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,799 Speaker 1: really pushing hard, hard for no fly zone and you know, 846 00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,040 Speaker 1: thank god, like thank god at least they didn't do that. 847 00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:08,680 Speaker 1: But it seems to me like he has a habit 848 00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:12,560 Speaker 1: of making these sort of like maximalist request and then 849 00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,080 Speaker 1: maybe the ideas you sort of like set the overden 850 00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:16,840 Speaker 1: window way out here, and then when you ask for 851 00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:20,400 Speaker 1: something that still is an escalation but isn't NATO membership, 852 00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:22,919 Speaker 1: and people were like, oh, okay, I guess so, because 853 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,759 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem as outlandish as like NATO membership or 854 00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,120 Speaker 1: the no fly zone. Ultimately was I don't know, that's 855 00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,560 Speaker 1: my that's kind of my reading of him throwing this 856 00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:34,640 Speaker 1: out here. He also said, let's put this up because 857 00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,839 Speaker 1: this was noteworthy about his you know, desire to enter 858 00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:40,120 Speaker 1: into peace talks. He says Ukraine is ready to hold 859 00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:44,320 Speaker 1: negotiations with Russia, but only with a new Russian precedent, 860 00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,799 Speaker 1: So basically saying, you know, no way are we going 861 00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,279 Speaker 1: to sit down at the negotiating table as long as 862 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,960 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin is in power. Can't blame him for having 863 00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:55,800 Speaker 1: that position whatsoever. But as we said a lot before 864 00:42:56,160 --> 00:43:00,239 Speaker 1: on ultimately, they do not get to this place in 865 00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,920 Speaker 1: the war without US arms, without US training, without US intelligence. 866 00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:07,480 Speaker 1: And so the fact that you know, the Ukrainian war 867 00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:09,799 Speaker 1: has gone on so long without any sort of like 868 00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,880 Speaker 1: diplomatic negotiations in months and months and months, this is 869 00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,040 Speaker 1: in part because of the US and the UK posture 870 00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:18,920 Speaker 1: that we wanted this war to ultimately continue. So that's 871 00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:21,160 Speaker 1: nice that that's his position, but we should have a 872 00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,160 Speaker 1: say in this as well. Yeah, I mean, I just 873 00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:25,640 Speaker 1: you know, with this, be careful what you wish for, 874 00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,920 Speaker 1: you know, you know, in the UH in World War One, 875 00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,560 Speaker 1: everybody's like, oh, we'll never negotiate, you know, and all that. 876 00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:32,640 Speaker 1: And then Lenin came into power and everyone was like, 877 00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:36,440 Speaker 1: oh my god. So I mean, I don't mean necessarily 878 00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:38,799 Speaker 1: about the allies. I mean sorry about his adversaries, but 879 00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,040 Speaker 1: like their allies are where united front all of this, 880 00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:42,720 Speaker 1: and then Lenin comes into power and he's like, actually, 881 00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,160 Speaker 1: screw all you have. The point is is that you 882 00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:46,719 Speaker 1: have no idea. I mean, what have we learn from 883 00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,360 Speaker 1: Russian revolutions in the middle of a war. Who knows 884 00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:53,319 Speaker 1: how it all turns out next? Yeah, true, you genuinely 885 00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,439 Speaker 1: have no idea. Like everybody was like, oh, it's great, 886 00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:58,040 Speaker 1: democracy is coming to Moscow. Eight months later, we're living 887 00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,160 Speaker 1: into Bolsherc Revolution in a massive civil war and actually 888 00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,560 Speaker 1: arguably major strategic disaster for the allies. You never know, 889 00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:07,680 Speaker 1: and you know, Kadir, the point that I was we 890 00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,719 Speaker 1: were making about, let's let's really game this out. If 891 00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:14,520 Speaker 1: Putin is to go, who comes next? Medievv Whenever he 892 00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:18,400 Speaker 1: was in power, everybody's like, oh, this guy, he's very Western, 893 00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,600 Speaker 1: he's much better spoken. He's the one threatening to Nucas 894 00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,719 Speaker 1: right now, no, we couldn't uke them. They wouldn't do anything. 895 00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,800 Speaker 1: Don't worry about it. He's like, yeah, well nuke him whatever. 896 00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,239 Speaker 1: They're not gonna do shit. And you're like, oh my god. 897 00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,759 Speaker 1: And he's the nice guy, right, he's the one who 898 00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:36,319 Speaker 1: remains a power cutin was chosen basically by Westerners who 899 00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,200 Speaker 1: thought that he would go along with their you know, 900 00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,839 Speaker 1: neoliberal as a shock doctor whatever. They're like, oh, this 901 00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,960 Speaker 1: is our guy. So again, be careful what you wish for. 902 00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,759 Speaker 1: I mean, there's just like the amount of chaos and 903 00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:50,960 Speaker 1: fallout if you actually had a regime change and you know, 904 00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:53,680 Speaker 1: Putin losing power and who would come next. There are 905 00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:59,080 Speaker 1: no guarantees in that situation whatsoever. So I do want 906 00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:00,960 Speaker 1: to encourage for the If you are just watching the 907 00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:02,840 Speaker 1: clips of this, I hope you'll go and watch the 908 00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:04,839 Speaker 1: whole thing because all of these pieces, do you really 909 00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:09,000 Speaker 1: fit together where the premium is the best? Yeah? Yeah, 910 00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:10,880 Speaker 1: because you know, there are a lot of pieces that 911 00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:12,400 Speaker 1: we talked about in the A Bloc with regards to 912 00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:16,200 Speaker 1: nuclear threat that also fit in here as well. But yeah, 913 00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:20,439 Speaker 1: I mean, ultimately, the idea of Ukraine asking for NATO 914 00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:24,279 Speaker 1: membership is just fanciful, and I do Listen, we've been 915 00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:27,840 Speaker 1: very critical here of the Biden administration's approach to Ukraine. 916 00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,400 Speaker 1: We've been very critical today of the Biden administration's approach 917 00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,160 Speaker 1: to Ukraine. But there are people who I would be 918 00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,800 Speaker 1: much more terrified of being in there as President of 919 00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:38,400 Speaker 1: the United Like if Kamala Harris, do you think that 920 00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:43,400 Speaker 1: she would resist? They're already And so it's like so 921 00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:47,440 Speaker 1: terrifying that all of these decisions are hinging on, like 922 00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:51,479 Speaker 1: the continued beating of an eighty year old heart right now, 923 00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,920 Speaker 1: because yeah, as as poor of a position as they 924 00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,279 Speaker 1: have gotten us into, which they have, and you know, 925 00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:01,359 Speaker 1: massive massive failures there all around, it actually could be 926 00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:04,120 Speaker 1: a lot worse and even more terrifying of a place 927 00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:05,920 Speaker 1: that we could be in. Right. One redeeming quality of 928 00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:07,920 Speaker 1: having an eight year old in charge is he's at 929 00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,640 Speaker 1: least old enough to actually have lived through as a 930 00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,760 Speaker 1: sentient adult, the Cuban missile. I think that's right, I really, 931 00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,560 Speaker 1: I think that's probably worth something because people who are 932 00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:18,799 Speaker 1: Gen X and above just either didn't live through it 933 00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,239 Speaker 1: or they just don't remember. It's not real to that 934 00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:23,879 Speaker 1: just you know, they haven't lived with this threat. I mean, 935 00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:27,040 Speaker 1: we haven't lived with this threat. This is all very 936 00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,759 Speaker 1: new to us. But yeah, I think that is one 937 00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,000 Speaker 1: of the you know, this is why I'm opposed to 938 00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:34,680 Speaker 1: the age limits that people love it here, because there 939 00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,520 Speaker 1: are advantages of people who have been around the block. 940 00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:38,080 Speaker 1: Because the other thing with Biden is I think he's 941 00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,800 Speaker 1: not as easily like coerced and snowed by the generals 942 00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,839 Speaker 1: as certainly as Obama was or as Trump was. That's true. 943 00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,080 Speaker 1: And again this is all you know, in the context 944 00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:51,600 Speaker 1: of the overwhelming overall criticism of this administration. But I 945 00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,359 Speaker 1: better than some other people who could be in there. 946 00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:55,680 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton at the helm right now, God save us, 947 00:46:56,160 --> 00:47:02,040 Speaker 1: Miss snowflies own herself. Let's go ahead and talk about Nordstream. 948 00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:05,200 Speaker 1: So obviously that was also the major news that happened 949 00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:07,840 Speaker 1: last week. Let's go ahead and put this up there 950 00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:11,160 Speaker 1: on the screen. In the middle of the speech that 951 00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:14,640 Speaker 1: Jake Sullivan was giving there about NATO membership and more, 952 00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:19,799 Speaker 1: he also touched on specifically US allegations around the Nordstream pipeline. 953 00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,720 Speaker 1: Let's take a listen, thanks Jake. In his speech this morning, 954 00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:27,759 Speaker 1: the President called the Nordstream pipeline attacks quote a deliberate 955 00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:30,319 Speaker 1: act of sabotage, and he said, now the Russians are 956 00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,520 Speaker 1: pumping out misinformation and lies about it. Should we take 957 00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,240 Speaker 1: that to me that the US now believes that Russia 958 00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:40,120 Speaker 1: was likely responsible for this act of sabotage. Well, first, 959 00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:42,920 Speaker 1: Russia has done what it frequently does when it is 960 00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:45,600 Speaker 1: responsible for something, which is make accusations that it was 961 00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,880 Speaker 1: really someone else who did it. We've seen this repeatedly 962 00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:50,880 Speaker 1: over time. But the President was also clear today that 963 00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:53,160 Speaker 1: there is more work to do on the investigation before 964 00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,880 Speaker 1: the United States government is prepared to make an attribution 965 00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,440 Speaker 1: in this case. One of the practical reasons for that 966 00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,000 Speaker 1: is that because gas is emanating from these pipelines, the 967 00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:05,240 Speaker 1: Danish authorities and other authorities in the Baltic Sea can't 968 00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:08,640 Speaker 1: actually get down to the source of the leak to 969 00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,200 Speaker 1: do forensics on what appears to be an explosion. So 970 00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:15,480 Speaker 1: we will have to wait until the combination of physical inspection, 971 00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,200 Speaker 1: intelligence gathering, and consultation with our allies to make a 972 00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:22,960 Speaker 1: definitive determination. But what we can say unequivocally is the 973 00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:26,919 Speaker 1: suggestions Russia has made about the United States and other 974 00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:30,160 Speaker 1: countries are flat out false. So Jake Sullivan there saying 975 00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:32,040 Speaker 1: a couple of things. Number one, we're not responsible to this. 976 00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:34,840 Speaker 1: For number two, no, NATO ally is responsible for this. 977 00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:38,120 Speaker 1: And then of course even basically de facto blames the 978 00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:42,040 Speaker 1: Russian saying it's on Russia, but we don't have the action, right, 979 00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:45,160 Speaker 1: I mean, according to him, and then Biden also alluding 980 00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,200 Speaker 1: to that whenever he was speaking about nord Stream in 981 00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:49,600 Speaker 1: the middle of a hurricane, let's talk about that. I 982 00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:53,320 Speaker 1: thank you all very much. You also asked me earlier 983 00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:58,080 Speaker 1: about the pipeline, and let me say this, it was 984 00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:03,280 Speaker 1: a deliberate act sabotage. And now the Russians are pumping 985 00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:06,680 Speaker 1: out disinformation lines. We're work with our allies to get 986 00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:10,400 Speaker 1: to the bottom exactly what it precisely would happen. And 987 00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:13,160 Speaker 1: as in my direction, I've already begun to help our 988 00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,839 Speaker 1: allies enhance the protection of this critical infrastructure. And it's 989 00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,080 Speaker 1: the appropriate moment, when things calm down, we're going to 990 00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:22,120 Speaker 1: be sending divers down to find out exactly what happened. 991 00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,279 Speaker 1: We don't know that yet exactly. So two denials there, 992 00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:28,160 Speaker 1: both at the presidential level and by the National Security Advisor, 993 00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:31,840 Speaker 1: no surprise, putin unprompted, actually brought this up during his 994 00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,000 Speaker 1: annexation speech. Let's put that up there on the screen. 995 00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:36,800 Speaker 1: He says it was the West that blew up the pipeline. 996 00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:40,480 Speaker 1: As Europe steps up its vigilance fashion, President Vladimir Putin 997 00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:42,759 Speaker 1: said the US and its allies blew up the nord 998 00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:45,920 Speaker 1: Stream pipeline and saying that he was quote raising the 999 00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:50,040 Speaker 1: temperature about Europe and its energy security. He says, quote 1000 00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:53,520 Speaker 1: the sanctions were not enough for the Anglo Saxons. They 1001 00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:56,480 Speaker 1: moved on to sabotage. It is hard to believe, but 1002 00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:58,920 Speaker 1: it is a fact that they organized the blasts on 1003 00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:02,359 Speaker 1: the nord Stream Internet national gas pipeline. So you've got 1004 00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:06,680 Speaker 1: fingers getting pointed at everybody. Look, we have no idea. Obviously, 1005 00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:11,600 Speaker 1: they're probably frankly will probably never know given the you know, accusations, 1006 00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:14,600 Speaker 1: and nobody will ever accept Q West intelligence comes out. 1007 00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:16,880 Speaker 1: It's like it was Russia, right, We're not really going 1008 00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:19,680 Speaker 1: to be too. I don't know, yeah, exactly, like who knows. 1009 00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,560 Speaker 1: I will say, the oddest part of this whole thing 1010 00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,239 Speaker 1: I cannot get over it. Let's put this up there 1011 00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:28,560 Speaker 1: on the screen. Is Radek Sikorski I pointed him out 1012 00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,280 Speaker 1: in my monologue on this that member of the EU Parliament, 1013 00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:34,760 Speaker 1: the former Minister of Foreign Affairs for the European Union 1014 00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:37,160 Speaker 1: and the wife of Anne Apple Mom and Apple Bomb, 1015 00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:40,080 Speaker 1: one of the biggest warmongers here in the US press. 1016 00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:44,000 Speaker 1: He originally thanked the United States were blowing up the 1017 00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:47,120 Speaker 1: nord Stream pipeline, but then he went ahead and deleted 1018 00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:53,239 Speaker 1: that tweet, So look extremely odd. He left it up 1019 00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,200 Speaker 1: for a couple of days, then took it down. Who 1020 00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,400 Speaker 1: knows what exactly he was alluding to. I know this 1021 00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:01,120 Speaker 1: is you know, a lot, there's probably a lot of 1022 00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:04,120 Speaker 1: currency right now, and be like it absolutely was America. 1023 00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,279 Speaker 1: I mean really all they can point to is that. 1024 00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:08,719 Speaker 1: And then they point to that one comment by Joe 1025 00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:10,520 Speaker 1: Biden in a press conference where he's like, we're going 1026 00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:12,440 Speaker 1: to end the Norchean pipeline. He's like, well what about 1027 00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:14,160 Speaker 1: He's like, what are you like, don't worry, like we're 1028 00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,160 Speaker 1: going to end it. Listen, I mean you got that. 1029 00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:18,799 Speaker 1: And then you also have the Russians who like are 1030 00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:20,719 Speaker 1: doing all kinds of stuff right now. They're the ones 1031 00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,600 Speaker 1: who invaded Ukraine, Okay, so like they're capable of doing 1032 00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:26,719 Speaker 1: crazy stuff. Also that pipeline wasn't even flowing, there was 1033 00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:28,560 Speaker 1: no gas in it. Like there it would have been 1034 00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,880 Speaker 1: shut down since August. The Russians didn't really have a 1035 00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:33,560 Speaker 1: lot to lose from doing that, And I mean, it 1036 00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,000 Speaker 1: just makes it look I could see both sides of it. 1037 00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:38,000 Speaker 1: On the Russian side, it makes a hell of a 1038 00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,160 Speaker 1: lot of sense in order to do something really crazy 1039 00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,400 Speaker 1: to warn the to warn the Europeans, like, hey, we 1040 00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:46,239 Speaker 1: got you that pipeline run into Norway. We could blow 1041 00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:48,800 Speaker 1: that up tomorrow and you'd be in a serious trouble. 1042 00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,480 Speaker 1: The Russian the case that the Russians did it is 1043 00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:56,239 Speaker 1: basically like, Okay, the European population hasn't turned against this 1044 00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:58,879 Speaker 1: war in the way that they hoped, right, this would 1045 00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,160 Speaker 1: be a way to send a mess of like, y'all 1046 00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,880 Speaker 1: are going to be in some really bad shape this winter, 1047 00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:06,920 Speaker 1: and to freak the population out, to like sort of 1048 00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:08,759 Speaker 1: send a warning that we can target this sort of 1049 00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,239 Speaker 1: infrastructure and make things even that much worse for you. 1050 00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,080 Speaker 1: And then on the domestic political front from Russia, obviously 1051 00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,799 Speaker 1: he's blaming the West, so it strengthens his argument of 1052 00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:18,919 Speaker 1: like the West is out to get us, and they're 1053 00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:21,600 Speaker 1: doing all this crazy stuff to try to bolster his 1054 00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:25,319 Speaker 1: case for this war that he is making domestically. So 1055 00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:27,800 Speaker 1: that's sort of like, you know, if you are inclined 1056 00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:29,640 Speaker 1: to believe that Russia did it, that would be the case. 1057 00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,359 Speaker 1: And I think if that was the case, you also 1058 00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:34,960 Speaker 1: would have kind of an interest from the US and 1059 00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:37,960 Speaker 1: the West in not directly saying that it was Russia, 1060 00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:41,160 Speaker 1: because then if you don't convince your own populations that 1061 00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:43,440 Speaker 1: this was Russia, you don't he doesn't get the benefit 1062 00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:46,560 Speaker 1: of this like message sending and freaking everybody out about 1063 00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:49,719 Speaker 1: them targeting the infrastructure. I mean, the argument against this 1064 00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:53,120 Speaker 1: is like, you know, it seems like insane for them 1065 00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:58,080 Speaker 1: to blow up their own infrastructure like they were using it, right, Yeah, yeah, 1066 00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:01,800 Speaker 1: I look, I see both sides. I have no idea. 1067 00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:04,040 Speaker 1: As we said, in terms of the quote unquote evidence, 1068 00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:06,960 Speaker 1: let's put this up there. Denmark and Sweden submitted a 1069 00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,880 Speaker 1: joint report to the European or to the United Nations. 1070 00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:12,280 Speaker 1: They say that there were hundreds of pounds of TNT 1071 00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:15,520 Speaker 1: which were used to damage the Norchreen pipeline. They have 1072 00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:19,239 Speaker 1: some richter evidence in terms of the explosion, the magnitudes 1073 00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:21,319 Speaker 1: that they were used that they have in sort of 1074 00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:25,600 Speaker 1: undersea detection and INTEL sources say that they believe five 1075 00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:28,680 Speaker 1: hundred kilograms of TNT were used in four separate places, 1076 00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:31,600 Speaker 1: containing the same force as a heavy aircraft bomb, So 1077 00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:35,280 Speaker 1: that's what they claim. Look, we generally have no idea. 1078 00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:38,520 Speaker 1: The head of Gazprom, you know, the Russian state energy giant, 1079 00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,120 Speaker 1: they say, you know, this is absolutely ridiculous, like we 1080 00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:43,520 Speaker 1: would never do this. Maybe they didn't even know about it. 1081 00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:45,799 Speaker 1: If it was done, that's what you know. We can't 1082 00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:48,120 Speaker 1: rule out anything. So I think that's just where we 1083 00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:51,080 Speaker 1: have to put it. Personally, I think we'll never know, 1084 00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:54,920 Speaker 1: and I think that no side will ever submit evidence 1085 00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:59,239 Speaker 1: that either will conclusively draw. I think whatever happened, the 1086 00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:02,040 Speaker 1: consequences of it remained clear to me, which is that 1087 00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:04,640 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, these were explosions that 1088 00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:08,040 Speaker 1: were twelve nautical miles away from a NATO ally shores. 1089 00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:13,320 Speaker 1: That's crazy. It has a proven ability to hurt European 1090 00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,759 Speaker 1: energy infrastructure at right as we're heading into winter, a 1091 00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,960 Speaker 1: very critical time, and the consequences of it is that 1092 00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:22,480 Speaker 1: you should combine it with all of the news that 1093 00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:25,320 Speaker 1: we have talked about, the advances on the Ukrainian front, 1094 00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:30,520 Speaker 1: the nuclear threats, the referenda, the ongoing massive political strife, 1095 00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:33,799 Speaker 1: domestic strife at home for Putin, and at the end 1096 00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:36,080 Speaker 1: of the day, the results of it probably matter more 1097 00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:38,959 Speaker 1: than actually what happened, because we're just never going to know. Yeah, 1098 00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:42,040 Speaker 1: and I would not trust any media figure who is 1099 00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:44,799 Speaker 1: telling you that they feel certain that it was one 1100 00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:48,600 Speaker 1: group or another group, because truly there is not enough 1101 00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:51,239 Speaker 1: evidence to say, oh, absolutely right, Okay, let's gohe and 1102 00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:53,800 Speaker 1: put the next one up there. You pointed this out, Crystal. 1103 00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,040 Speaker 1: Very interesting in the context of all of this from 1104 00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:59,920 Speaker 1: a diplomatic point of view. The Venezuelans are swapping seven 1105 00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:04,319 Speaker 1: Americans for some of Maduro's relatives, and all of this 1106 00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,640 Speaker 1: came These are actually five oil executives who've been held 1107 00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:11,040 Speaker 1: there for over five years. Are all in the context 1108 00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:15,400 Speaker 1: about taking off some adjoining sanctions, Crystal, and freeing up 1109 00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:19,320 Speaker 1: the ability, the ability to exchange and to buy oil 1110 00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:24,000 Speaker 1: from Venezuela, which is a very very important development, something 1111 00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:27,280 Speaker 1: that frankly, the Biden administration should have done from day one. 1112 00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:30,719 Speaker 1: We know that they had ongoing negotiations with Caracas, but 1113 00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,240 Speaker 1: they were you know, in that search for global oil. 1114 00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:36,920 Speaker 1: You know, some US officials were dispatched to the Venezuela 1115 00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,480 Speaker 1: to the Maduro regime, and you know, it doesn't it 1116 00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:43,920 Speaker 1: probably hurts that we don't recognize the Madua regime whatever negotiating, 1117 00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:46,040 Speaker 1: but clearly have gotten to a point where we can 1118 00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:49,000 Speaker 1: have the prisoner swap and at least get some oil flowing, 1119 00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:51,920 Speaker 1: which you know, definitely would help caution. As I've said, 1120 00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:55,520 Speaker 1: Venezuelan oil, as I understand, it requires like more refining 1121 00:55:55,600 --> 00:55:59,520 Speaker 1: refining capacity because it's like extra heavy crude or the 1122 00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:01,600 Speaker 1: chemical makeup of it is not the same as oil 1123 00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:03,600 Speaker 1: that we get from other places, which makes it hard 1124 00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:07,160 Speaker 1: to refine. But that could still open up the ability 1125 00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:09,560 Speaker 1: for it to ship to the US and alleviate the 1126 00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:11,960 Speaker 1: price of oil all across the globe. This room also 1127 00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:15,480 Speaker 1: represents just like a dramatic shift from the Trump administration's 1128 00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:18,160 Speaker 1: approach to Venezuela. You may recall that we tried to 1129 00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:20,400 Speaker 1: do a coup there a couple of years ago, and 1130 00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:23,879 Speaker 1: people like Margo Rubio still in favor of that sort 1131 00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:27,520 Speaker 1: of approach. Not to mention, you know, massive sanctions levied 1132 00:56:27,560 --> 00:56:31,680 Speaker 1: on that country, which exacerbated an already dire economic situation 1133 00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:33,480 Speaker 1: there that had come about because I mean this is 1134 00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:36,520 Speaker 1: you know, basically Petro state. Now gas prices are high, 1135 00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:39,520 Speaker 1: but there had been a huge dip previously during the pandemic, 1136 00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:41,520 Speaker 1: and so that already sort of like took the wheels 1137 00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:44,040 Speaker 1: off their economy. Then we hit them with these massive sanctions, 1138 00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,560 Speaker 1: and so they really have been in a dire situation. 1139 00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:48,800 Speaker 1: This is part of why you have so many Venezuelan 1140 00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:52,640 Speaker 1: immigrants showing up on our at our border, which you 1141 00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:56,240 Speaker 1: know has become quite a political topic of conversation as well. 1142 00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:59,640 Speaker 1: But so this is a dramatic shift from the Trump 1143 00:56:59,680 --> 00:57:07,520 Speaker 1: administs very hard, very hawkish, very adversarial approach to Venezuela. 1144 00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:10,439 Speaker 1: And you know, obviously the Biden administration is looking at 1145 00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,279 Speaker 1: like what are our options for making sure that we 1146 00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:16,520 Speaker 1: have the sort of energy resources that the country needs. Now, 1147 00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:18,480 Speaker 1: there are a lot of caveats here. At number one, 1148 00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:22,200 Speaker 1: this is just step One're a long way long way 1149 00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:25,680 Speaker 1: from any sort of more sweeping deal. Number two, the 1150 00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:29,160 Speaker 1: oil infrastructure in Venezuela has apparently been really like sort 1151 00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:31,880 Speaker 1: of decayed and degraded, so in their like capacity is 1152 00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:34,120 Speaker 1: not nearly what it used to be. And then number 1153 00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:36,240 Speaker 1: three is like the chemical composition thing that you were 1154 00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:38,000 Speaker 1: talking about that I don't really know anything about. Well, 1155 00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,160 Speaker 1: gas is going up, that's all I know. Three eighty 1156 00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:42,480 Speaker 1: a gallon, it's on the way up, butting it bottomed 1157 00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:45,840 Speaker 1: out around three sixty California back over six dollars a 1158 00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:49,520 Speaker 1: gallon six thirty right there in terms of the state average. 1159 00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:52,200 Speaker 1: So things are still hitting people really, really hard at 1160 00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:55,200 Speaker 1: the pump and domestically. I think that this will continue 1161 00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:59,200 Speaker 1: to cause consequences, especially if we get more hurricanes. That hurricane, 1162 00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:01,520 Speaker 1: If we get a couple more hurricanes, and if one 1163 00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:04,680 Speaker 1: hits Texas in particular where all the refineries are or 1164 00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:08,280 Speaker 1: that area, we are in some serious trouble folks around 1165 00:58:08,320 --> 00:58:11,800 Speaker 1: the price of oil will significantly or gas will significantly 1166 00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:14,200 Speaker 1: go up for people. Plus, you know, in terms of 1167 00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:18,960 Speaker 1: winter production, OPEK all eyes ships are not yet crossing, 1168 00:58:19,240 --> 00:58:22,600 Speaker 1: you know, in OPEC planning to cut productions significantly. They're 1169 00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:26,280 Speaker 1: planning planning to cut their production. So the supply problems 1170 00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:29,040 Speaker 1: that we've had are going to exacerbate. And you should 1171 00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:32,160 Speaker 1: not rule out four dollars a gallon or more in 1172 00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:34,560 Speaker 1: the near future, and possibly five, Like I said, if 1173 00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:38,240 Speaker 1: we have another natural disaster. Just a warning there to everybody. Okay, 1174 00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:40,640 Speaker 1: let's turn to domestic politics, because this is something we 1175 00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,040 Speaker 1: have been tracking really closely. Let's go ahead and put 1176 00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:46,080 Speaker 1: this piece up on the screen. So that Congressional stock 1177 00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:49,960 Speaker 1: Training band that supposedly Nancy Pelosi was trying to get 1178 00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:53,080 Speaker 1: through last week fell apart, and the Intercept has some 1179 00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:59,320 Speaker 1: great reporting here arguing that House Democratic leadership designed that 1180 00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:03,120 Speaker 1: stock trading ban to fail. That is according to some 1181 00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:06,840 Speaker 1: of the negotiators who were involved. You know, we did. 1182 00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:09,280 Speaker 1: We have been covering this extensively from the beginning. We 1183 00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:13,560 Speaker 1: covered it extensively last week. Basically, what happened is you 1184 00:59:13,640 --> 00:59:15,880 Speaker 1: had a bipartisan effort. There were a bunch of different 1185 00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:18,120 Speaker 1: versions of this bill, but there was the most serious 1186 00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:21,760 Speaker 1: effort happening with Abigail Spamberger was the Democrat in the House. 1187 00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:24,040 Speaker 1: I think that Elizabeth Warren was involved in the Senate. 1188 00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:26,760 Speaker 1: There was a lot of negotiating with the Republicans. You 1189 00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,919 Speaker 1: had a sort of consensus around some of the key provisions. 1190 00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:32,160 Speaker 1: They're pretty close to the finish line and ironing out 1191 00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:36,160 Speaker 1: these details, and then House leadership comes in over the 1192 00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:39,720 Speaker 1: top with this totally different bill at the last minute, 1193 00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:42,840 Speaker 1: and there were a couple of provisions in there that 1194 00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:46,520 Speaker 1: negotiating negotiators are saying basically they put these in to 1195 00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:50,600 Speaker 1: make it fail. Some of these actually made the bill stronger, like, 1196 00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:53,800 Speaker 1: for example, it was expansive. It applied not just to 1197 00:59:54,120 --> 00:59:57,160 Speaker 1: the legislative branch, but also to the executive branch and 1198 00:59:57,200 --> 01:00:00,800 Speaker 1: also to the judicial branch. That apparently was like a 1199 01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:03,000 Speaker 1: poison pill for Republicans in the Senate. Now that sort 1200 01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,240 Speaker 1: of sucks because you should have it applied to all 1201 01:00:05,280 --> 01:00:07,920 Speaker 1: those groups. But that was one way that they altered 1202 01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:10,040 Speaker 1: the bill to try to design it to fail. The 1203 01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:12,320 Speaker 1: other way was to make it much weaker, and we 1204 01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:15,360 Speaker 1: talked a lot about that last week, which with these 1205 01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:19,600 Speaker 1: qualified blind trusts, that they basically created this gigantic loophole 1206 01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:23,080 Speaker 1: where that those qualified blind trusts could basically mean anything, 1207 01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:25,720 Speaker 1: and it was just a way of totally undercutting this 1208 01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:28,800 Speaker 1: entire bill. So you both made it weaker and you 1209 01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:32,440 Speaker 1: made it more expansive, with a predictable result that ultimately, 1210 01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:34,880 Speaker 1: with this being ushered through at the last minute, it 1211 01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:37,920 Speaker 1: falls apart. Abigail Spanberger, let's go ahead and put this 1212 01:00:38,040 --> 01:00:40,240 Speaker 1: up on the screen, who was, as I mentioned, very 1213 01:00:40,240 --> 01:00:42,160 Speaker 1: involved in this and who have all sorts of other 1214 01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:45,439 Speaker 1: issues with but on this issue she has been pretty good. 1215 01:00:46,040 --> 01:00:50,560 Speaker 1: She was scathing in her analysis and directly pointed the 1216 01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:53,200 Speaker 1: finger at Pelosian House leadership. She says, this moment marks 1217 01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:56,560 Speaker 1: a failure of House leadership. This moment is yet another 1218 01:00:56,600 --> 01:00:58,760 Speaker 1: example of why I believe the Democratic Party needs new 1219 01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:00,640 Speaker 1: leaders in the halls of Capitol Hill, as I have 1220 01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:03,560 Speaker 1: long made known. She goes on to say, rather than 1221 01:01:03,600 --> 01:01:06,160 Speaker 1: bring members of Congress together who are passionate about this issue, 1222 01:01:06,160 --> 01:01:09,080 Speaker 1: House leadership chose to ignore these voices, push them aside, 1223 01:01:09,160 --> 01:01:11,480 Speaker 1: look for new ways they could string the media and 1224 01:01:11,520 --> 01:01:14,640 Speaker 1: the public along and evade public criticism. So what she's 1225 01:01:14,640 --> 01:01:18,440 Speaker 1: saying there is basically like they wanted the appearance like 1226 01:01:18,520 --> 01:01:21,800 Speaker 1: they were trying on this, but making sure that ultimately 1227 01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,520 Speaker 1: it didn't fit, it didn't pass. Then she goes on 1228 01:01:24,560 --> 01:01:26,680 Speaker 1: to lay that out more directly. She says, as part 1229 01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:30,360 Speaker 1: of their diversionary tactics, the House Administration Committee was tasked 1230 01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:33,280 Speaker 1: with creating a new bill and ultimately introduced a kitchen 1231 01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:36,560 Speaker 1: sink package that they knew would fail. With only days 1232 01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:38,720 Speaker 1: until the end of the legislative session and no time 1233 01:01:38,720 --> 01:01:40,760 Speaker 1: to fix it. The package release earlier this week was 1234 01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:44,480 Speaker 1: designed to fail. It was written to create confusion surrounding 1235 01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:48,120 Speaker 1: reform efforts and complicate a straightforward reform priority while creating 1236 01:01:48,160 --> 01:01:51,440 Speaker 1: the appearance that leadership wanted to act. And she concludes 1237 01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:53,280 Speaker 1: by saying, in the months ahead, I will be dogged 1238 01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:55,439 Speaker 1: in my efforts to ban members of Congress from using 1239 01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,919 Speaker 1: the privilege of their position to profit. I look forward 1240 01:01:57,960 --> 01:02:00,760 Speaker 1: to working with my Democratic and Republican colleagues to get 1241 01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:06,000 Speaker 1: these reforms done. So that from a Democratic member pointing 1242 01:02:06,040 --> 01:02:08,600 Speaker 1: the finger at Pelosi, Hoyer has been another one who 1243 01:02:08,600 --> 01:02:10,760 Speaker 1: has been a longtime opponent of any of these sorts 1244 01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:14,080 Speaker 1: of reforms to say, y'all wanted the media to be 1245 01:02:14,160 --> 01:02:17,240 Speaker 1: convinced that you cared about this, but in reality you 1246 01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:20,080 Speaker 1: did everything to make sure this did not come to pass. Yeah, 1247 01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:22,880 Speaker 1: and it's odd about mister Hoyr because he's actually not 1248 01:02:22,920 --> 01:02:25,640 Speaker 1: personally that wealthy, which is what makes me even more 1249 01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:28,000 Speaker 1: skeptical about why he would fight for all of this. 1250 01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:30,840 Speaker 1: Like he it's not like he has all that much money, 1251 01:02:30,880 --> 01:02:33,040 Speaker 1: you know. Apparently his net worth is like three hundredth 1252 01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:34,360 Speaker 1: in the House he's got like a net worth of 1253 01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:36,680 Speaker 1: like seventy six thousand dollars, so he's got a better 1254 01:02:36,720 --> 01:02:39,160 Speaker 1: himself size. That's what I'm saying. The guys who are 1255 01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:40,560 Speaker 1: the ones who are like, oh, hold on a second, 1256 01:02:40,600 --> 01:02:42,520 Speaker 1: we're not going to take some strategic advantage. Have I 1257 01:02:42,640 --> 01:02:44,440 Speaker 1: cashed in yet? Like I haven't. I mean, he's like 1258 01:02:44,480 --> 01:02:46,320 Speaker 1: eighty years old. But I guess he's protecting it. He's 1259 01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:48,120 Speaker 1: probably protecting his kids and his family, if I had 1260 01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:50,880 Speaker 1: to guess true. So that's always the issue and why 1261 01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:53,360 Speaker 1: we need to remove any even like we need to 1262 01:02:53,360 --> 01:02:56,840 Speaker 1: remove any appearance of corruption, whether it's corrupt or not. 1263 01:02:57,000 --> 01:02:59,800 Speaker 1: As I said, my personal position is that you're guilty 1264 01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:02,720 Speaker 1: and even innocent whenever you're actively trading securities as a 1265 01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:06,160 Speaker 1: member of Congress, you need to remove that. Abigail Spanberger's 1266 01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:09,120 Speaker 1: word should be taken very very seriously, torpedoed by House 1267 01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:12,120 Speaker 1: leadership poison pills from the very beginning, wait out the 1268 01:03:12,160 --> 01:03:15,080 Speaker 1: clock game and you know Ukraine's happening. What did we do? 1269 01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:17,080 Speaker 1: We let our show with Ukraine. We have no choice 1270 01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:19,920 Speaker 1: but to, but these things are still important, and they 1271 01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:23,000 Speaker 1: killed it for this whole Congress. The idea this is 1272 01:03:23,000 --> 01:03:24,680 Speaker 1: going to get a vote in Lame Duck, I think 1273 01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:26,640 Speaker 1: is a total joke. I don't think that we're going 1274 01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:28,680 Speaker 1: to see it again. And if the Republicans take charge, 1275 01:03:28,880 --> 01:03:30,800 Speaker 1: let's see. I mean, they talk a big game. Are 1276 01:03:30,800 --> 01:03:32,240 Speaker 1: you going to pass it? Right? Are you going to 1277 01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:34,440 Speaker 1: pass it or not? Can If you do pass it, 1278 01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:36,320 Speaker 1: what's it going to look like? Because there's a million 1279 01:03:36,360 --> 01:03:39,520 Speaker 1: ways to write this bill where it's effectively meaningless. I mean, 1280 01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:42,080 Speaker 1: the Democrats honestly previewed one of those ways with this, 1281 01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:45,080 Speaker 1: like qualified blind trust bullshit, Like they could pick right 1282 01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:47,200 Speaker 1: up on that. But there are a bunch of ways 1283 01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:49,320 Speaker 1: you could do this work or leave the judiciary less. 1284 01:03:49,360 --> 01:03:51,720 Speaker 1: They shouldn't leave the judiciary. Why should the judges be 1285 01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:54,960 Speaker 1: allowed to trade stops? I mean it may even be 1286 01:03:55,040 --> 01:03:58,600 Speaker 1: more significant the judiciary than it is even for members 1287 01:03:58,600 --> 01:04:01,320 Speaker 1: of Congress. It is growth as here the way that 1288 01:04:01,360 --> 01:04:03,600 Speaker 1: these judges had financial interests in the case that they 1289 01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:05,960 Speaker 1: were overseeing and then lo and behold, they tended to 1290 01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:09,640 Speaker 1: rule in favor of their own they personal financial interests. Yeah, 1291 01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:11,280 Speaker 1: they were like, oh I forgot I didn't know I 1292 01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:13,520 Speaker 1: had it. Like, really, dude, you forgot you own stock 1293 01:04:13,520 --> 01:04:15,880 Speaker 1: in this particular company, right, and just so happened that 1294 01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:18,200 Speaker 1: all of your rulings went in that direction. Wow, isn't 1295 01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:21,640 Speaker 1: that convenient? So yeah, I mean it absolutely should apply 1296 01:04:21,680 --> 01:04:24,200 Speaker 1: to the judicial branch as well. And you know, there 1297 01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:27,919 Speaker 1: there was this member Stephanie Murphy last week who was arguing, like, oh, 1298 01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:30,480 Speaker 1: passing this would be so hard on frontline members. It's 1299 01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:33,280 Speaker 1: like frontline means people who are in these like swing 1300 01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:35,560 Speaker 1: districts who are facing a tough reelect, which, by the way, 1301 01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:39,200 Speaker 1: Abail Spaanberger is one of those members. I actually live 1302 01:04:39,240 --> 01:04:41,760 Speaker 1: in her The district has been drawn so that I 1303 01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:44,440 Speaker 1: live in that district. Now it's very it's basically a 1304 01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:47,520 Speaker 1: toss up, I think in terms of whether Spanburger is 1305 01:04:47,520 --> 01:04:49,960 Speaker 1: going to be able to hold on or the Republican 1306 01:04:50,160 --> 01:04:52,560 Speaker 1: is gonna is going to take her out. But the 1307 01:04:52,680 --> 01:04:54,840 Speaker 1: idea that this would be a tough vote for members, 1308 01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:57,880 Speaker 1: it is quite the opposite. This is one of the 1309 01:04:57,920 --> 01:05:02,320 Speaker 1: most popular by part and things that you could possibly do. 1310 01:05:02,920 --> 01:05:05,120 Speaker 1: And now when they point the sound in that intercept article, 1311 01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:09,080 Speaker 1: Pelosi is basically denied her members in tough seats like 1312 01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:11,600 Speaker 1: something else that they could point to and run on 1313 01:05:12,040 --> 01:05:14,960 Speaker 1: like she's denied them that opportunity to have something really 1314 01:05:15,000 --> 01:05:18,280 Speaker 1: popular and significant corruption reform that they could run on 1315 01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:21,360 Speaker 1: and point to. So it actually hurts democrats. I mean, 1316 01:05:21,440 --> 01:05:23,120 Speaker 1: I'm not going to say it's like a game changer, 1317 01:05:23,120 --> 01:05:25,240 Speaker 1: but on the margin, it definitely hurts Democrats in these 1318 01:05:25,240 --> 01:05:27,120 Speaker 1: districts trying to hold on. No, of course, I mean, 1319 01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:28,680 Speaker 1: if I was Fetterman, I would love this, you know, 1320 01:05:28,760 --> 01:05:30,960 Speaker 1: to be able to run on Highlight with Oz. But 1321 01:05:31,320 --> 01:05:35,080 Speaker 1: you know, congrats to Nancy Pelosi protecting her family, her 1322 01:05:35,080 --> 01:05:37,520 Speaker 1: interests and not just you know, look, it's much bigger 1323 01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:40,080 Speaker 1: than Pelosi. It's all of them. There's hundreds of them, 1324 01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:42,640 Speaker 1: seventy two who violated the Stock Act just in the 1325 01:05:42,720 --> 01:05:45,640 Speaker 1: last year. So this is a totally bipartison problem. She's 1326 01:05:45,680 --> 01:05:47,720 Speaker 1: just kind of the symbol of it. Yes, all right, 1327 01:05:47,800 --> 01:05:50,600 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and get to Yes, Trevor Noah. So, 1328 01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:53,920 Speaker 1: Trevor Noah, I think took over for John Stewart at 1329 01:05:53,920 --> 01:05:56,080 Speaker 1: The Daily Show seven years ago. The show has never 1330 01:05:56,120 --> 01:06:00,560 Speaker 1: been the same since. It's been basically culturally irrelevant and funny. 1331 01:06:01,600 --> 01:06:03,880 Speaker 1: You know. He just like the thing that made Stuart 1332 01:06:04,040 --> 01:06:07,680 Speaker 1: so great is that obviously he's like on the left 1333 01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:10,760 Speaker 1: and more or lesser progressive, but he would have biting 1334 01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:14,720 Speaker 1: criticism of the hypocrisy of Democrats, the media across the boarom. 1335 01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:17,280 Speaker 1: He loved a rake CNN across the cults, and that's 1336 01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:21,520 Speaker 1: what made the show funny, subversive, interesting, relevant, et cetera. 1337 01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:24,240 Speaker 1: Trevor Noa just didn't really bring any of that to 1338 01:06:24,360 --> 01:06:28,200 Speaker 1: the table. And now, after hosting the show for seven years, 1339 01:06:28,240 --> 01:06:31,080 Speaker 1: he has just announced that he is moving on. Let's 1340 01:06:31,120 --> 01:06:32,760 Speaker 1: take a listen to what he had to say. And 1341 01:06:32,800 --> 01:06:36,840 Speaker 1: I realized that after the seven years, my time is up. 1342 01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:43,680 Speaker 1: I uh yeah, but in the most beautiful way. Honestly, 1343 01:06:44,000 --> 01:06:48,080 Speaker 1: I've loved hosting the show. It's been one of my 1344 01:06:48,120 --> 01:06:52,840 Speaker 1: greatest challenges. It's been one of my greatest joys. I've 1345 01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:56,200 Speaker 1: loved trying to figure out how to make people laugh, 1346 01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:59,800 Speaker 1: even when the stories are particularly shitty on the worst days. 1347 01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:04,600 Speaker 1: You know, We've we've loft together, we've cried together. But 1348 01:07:04,680 --> 01:07:09,200 Speaker 1: after seven years, I feel like it's it's it's time. Yeah, 1349 01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:12,840 Speaker 1: I mean Comedy Central, it's time. It's a long past time. 1350 01:07:12,920 --> 01:07:15,280 Speaker 1: Because we are grateful to Trevor for our amazing partnership 1351 01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:17,640 Speaker 1: of the past seven years with no time timetable for 1352 01:07:17,680 --> 01:07:19,680 Speaker 1: his departure. We're working together our next steps as we 1353 01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:21,400 Speaker 1: look ahead. We're excited for the next chapter in the 1354 01:07:21,480 --> 01:07:24,320 Speaker 1: twenty five plus year history of The Daily Show, as 1355 01:07:24,320 --> 01:07:27,440 Speaker 1: it continues to redefine culture through sharp and hilarious social commentary, 1356 01:07:27,440 --> 01:07:30,280 Speaker 1: helping audiences make sense of the world around them. It 1357 01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:32,280 Speaker 1: seems like they were a little bit sport like. It 1358 01:07:32,280 --> 01:07:34,440 Speaker 1: doesn't seem like he was forced out. It seems like 1359 01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:37,600 Speaker 1: this was his affirmative decision to move on and do 1360 01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:39,840 Speaker 1: something else. No nobody knows. I mean, I think we 1361 01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:41,760 Speaker 1: should just take it in the context of late night 1362 01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:44,440 Speaker 1: TV just doesn't matter anymore. I mean, who is actually what? 1363 01:07:44,640 --> 01:07:47,080 Speaker 1: First of all, I'm I'm asleep for hours by eleven pm. 1364 01:07:47,120 --> 01:07:50,080 Speaker 1: But like, how many people are sitting at their television 1365 01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:52,480 Speaker 1: who are like I got to tune in to watch 1366 01:07:52,760 --> 01:07:54,960 Speaker 1: Trevor Noa's take. I mean, I don't even know when 1367 01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:56,520 Speaker 1: it airs how many people that have cable. I mean, 1368 01:07:56,560 --> 01:07:59,120 Speaker 1: we've seen a ten percent reduction over just the last year. 1369 01:07:59,280 --> 01:08:02,640 Speaker 1: This is the same case for Seth Myers, for Jimmy 1370 01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:06,040 Speaker 1: Kimmel and who's that other guy who's leaving the Fat 1371 01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:09,160 Speaker 1: One James Gordon yeah, that guy. But you know, even him, 1372 01:08:09,240 --> 01:08:11,400 Speaker 1: let's take him. Was his show popular or were his 1373 01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:14,400 Speaker 1: clips on YouTube popular? What made him famous in America? 1374 01:08:14,560 --> 01:08:17,040 Speaker 1: I would say I think that his like singing this, 1375 01:08:17,439 --> 01:08:21,040 Speaker 1: he does those car karaoke or whatever. That's to me, 1376 01:08:21,240 --> 01:08:22,920 Speaker 1: the reason he's famous is not because of the show. 1377 01:08:23,000 --> 01:08:24,599 Speaker 1: It's because he has a show which happens to get 1378 01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:27,160 Speaker 1: posted on YouTube. So what's the point? I mean, even 1379 01:08:27,240 --> 01:08:30,000 Speaker 1: Noah Saturday Night Live is another good How many people 1380 01:08:30,040 --> 01:08:32,840 Speaker 1: are tuning into Saturday Night Live and then watching whichever 1381 01:08:32,880 --> 01:08:35,439 Speaker 1: sketches that they happen to put out on YouTube, on Twitter, 1382 01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:38,760 Speaker 1: on Instagram or elsewhere. So the issue is that you 1383 01:08:38,800 --> 01:08:41,920 Speaker 1: can't monetize the part where you actually get famous nearly 1384 01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:44,280 Speaker 1: at the same rate that you can monetize, like ads 1385 01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:47,000 Speaker 1: directly on the platform that you own. And you and 1386 01:08:47,040 --> 01:08:49,080 Speaker 1: I do the show. We have a decent amount of 1387 01:08:49,080 --> 01:08:51,760 Speaker 1: people who work on it, like ten total, right, they 1388 01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:54,720 Speaker 1: have like thirty people who are working on this one thing, 1389 01:08:54,760 --> 01:08:56,800 Speaker 1: and they do less content than you and I do. 1390 01:08:57,040 --> 01:08:59,439 Speaker 1: They do one show a day and they like thirty 1391 01:08:59,600 --> 01:09:02,320 Speaker 1: thirty people and then less people watch it. It's like 1392 01:09:02,360 --> 01:09:05,680 Speaker 1: this is craziness, Like, well, something has to get that's 1393 01:09:05,680 --> 01:09:08,000 Speaker 1: all true. The business model has changed so it no 1394 01:09:08,080 --> 01:09:11,280 Speaker 1: longer makes as much sense. And then the other piece 1395 01:09:11,360 --> 01:09:14,880 Speaker 1: I think is that like there was all this speculation 1396 01:09:15,120 --> 01:09:17,000 Speaker 1: at the beginning of the Trump era that this would 1397 01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:20,719 Speaker 1: be great for comedians, so absurd and such a buffoon 1398 01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:23,560 Speaker 1: and all that stuff, and it was totally the opposite. 1399 01:09:23,640 --> 01:09:25,840 Speaker 1: Like all these people who are more like liberal on 1400 01:09:25,920 --> 01:09:27,760 Speaker 1: the liberal side, which is you know, all of these 1401 01:09:27,840 --> 01:09:31,120 Speaker 1: late night hosts and the same there was such like 1402 01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:36,080 Speaker 1: moral sanctimony that creeped into the comedy that it just 1403 01:09:36,200 --> 01:09:38,439 Speaker 1: wasn't funny. I mean the perfect example of this is 1404 01:09:38,479 --> 01:09:42,760 Speaker 1: like on SNL the singing Hallelujah and Trump win, right, 1405 01:09:42,800 --> 01:09:46,679 Speaker 1: I mean, this is and so it became first of all, 1406 01:09:46,720 --> 01:09:50,479 Speaker 1: reality became so absurd that they struggled to like, you know, 1407 01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:53,639 Speaker 1: be even more absurd with their comedy. And then there 1408 01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:57,719 Speaker 1: was this total unwillingness to poke fun at, you know, 1409 01:09:57,800 --> 01:10:01,080 Speaker 1: not the Republicans, and it just made it really predictable 1410 01:10:01,280 --> 01:10:04,719 Speaker 1: and felt like moral preening and felt kind of cringe. 1411 01:10:04,800 --> 01:10:07,360 Speaker 1: And Samantha Bee, you know, she just her show just 1412 01:10:07,479 --> 01:10:10,479 Speaker 1: ended as well, like it all just it didn't it 1413 01:10:10,520 --> 01:10:13,479 Speaker 1: didn't make comedy good. It sort of broke liberal comedy. 1414 01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:16,400 Speaker 1: In particular, the genius of Stuart was that in the 1415 01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:21,040 Speaker 1: media environment of six whenever it was not only encouraged 1416 01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:23,479 Speaker 1: but good, as Keith Oberman showed us to evisterate the 1417 01:10:23,560 --> 01:10:27,519 Speaker 1: Bush administration, is he had to also take go after 1418 01:10:27,560 --> 01:10:30,120 Speaker 1: the opponents of Bush, the mainstream media and more. And 1419 01:10:30,160 --> 01:10:32,320 Speaker 1: by keeping that in the Obama administration, going after the 1420 01:10:32,360 --> 01:10:36,080 Speaker 1: Obama administration and always having like dual victims, he made 1421 01:10:36,080 --> 01:10:39,240 Speaker 1: it known that he was at least beyond his personal politics, 1422 01:10:39,240 --> 01:10:42,559 Speaker 1: like would always make fun of absurdity wherever it fell. 1423 01:10:42,760 --> 01:10:45,439 Speaker 1: Comedy is funny when it says the things you're like 1424 01:10:45,640 --> 01:10:47,360 Speaker 1: that you're not supposed to say. It's got to be 1425 01:10:47,400 --> 01:10:50,680 Speaker 1: a little rebellious, yes, And during the Bush era, like 1426 01:10:50,720 --> 01:10:54,839 Speaker 1: it's easy to forget the like society and all mainstream 1427 01:10:55,080 --> 01:10:57,720 Speaker 1: like they were all pushing for this war, they were 1428 01:10:57,800 --> 01:11:01,800 Speaker 1: all backing up Bush. And so when you had these 1429 01:11:01,840 --> 01:11:04,720 Speaker 1: few voices that were willing to point out the absurdity 1430 01:11:04,720 --> 01:11:06,800 Speaker 1: of or whether it was Keith Olberman with like the 1431 01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:08,960 Speaker 1: screens you would do, or whether it was a John 1432 01:11:09,000 --> 01:11:13,320 Speaker 1: Stewart where he would lampoon them. Colbert Colbert, oh phenomenal 1433 01:11:13,320 --> 01:11:16,679 Speaker 1: in that era phenomenal. And so it was funny because 1434 01:11:16,680 --> 01:11:19,280 Speaker 1: it was rebellious because it was saying something that was 1435 01:11:19,439 --> 01:11:23,040 Speaker 1: edgy and that you weren't really supposed to say. And 1436 01:11:23,120 --> 01:11:25,679 Speaker 1: so when they went in like this, you know, hard 1437 01:11:25,800 --> 01:11:29,040 Speaker 1: like resistance liberal direction, well that was that wasn't rebellious, 1438 01:11:29,120 --> 01:11:32,400 Speaker 1: that was like the general consensus of the mainstream media. 1439 01:11:32,479 --> 01:11:34,439 Speaker 1: I'm not even saying, like you know that all of 1440 01:11:34,479 --> 01:11:37,719 Speaker 1: it was like incorrect or anything, but it just wasn't edgy. 1441 01:11:37,800 --> 01:11:40,560 Speaker 1: It didn't can It didn't have that sort of subversive 1442 01:11:40,760 --> 01:11:44,920 Speaker 1: edgy element that makes comedy funny and interesting at its best. 1443 01:11:44,960 --> 01:11:46,680 Speaker 1: I agree, But you know, the good news is that 1444 01:11:46,760 --> 01:11:49,280 Speaker 1: comedy is blown up. You know, comedy I pay attention 1445 01:11:49,360 --> 01:11:51,160 Speaker 1: to because I think it's like a leading indicator of 1446 01:11:51,200 --> 01:11:53,719 Speaker 1: where all of entertainment is going. So outside of Rogan 1447 01:11:53,800 --> 01:11:55,920 Speaker 1: and we're seeing like a comedy renaiss. You could spend 1448 01:11:55,920 --> 01:11:59,240 Speaker 1: your whole day listening to hilarious comedians like you've. I mean, 1449 01:11:59,400 --> 01:12:02,840 Speaker 1: I can too many just people I'm familiar with who 1450 01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:05,400 Speaker 1: aren't don't exist at the quote unquote mainstream level, but 1451 01:12:05,439 --> 01:12:08,559 Speaker 1: which are doing incredibly well, like people who built whole studios, 1452 01:12:08,600 --> 01:12:11,200 Speaker 1: Guys like Tom Segura and Bert Kreischer. I mean, these 1453 01:12:11,240 --> 01:12:14,320 Speaker 1: guys are crushing killing it at a level, like in 1454 01:12:14,320 --> 01:12:17,120 Speaker 1: a way, you know, the inspiration for breaking points and 1455 01:12:17,200 --> 01:12:20,040 Speaker 1: the audience that we speak to and more all comes 1456 01:12:20,040 --> 01:12:22,080 Speaker 1: from the guys like Tim Dillon and Shane Gillis and 1457 01:12:22,080 --> 01:12:25,799 Speaker 1: Andrews Schultz and Bobby Lee and like Santino and Rogan 1458 01:12:25,920 --> 01:12:29,000 Speaker 1: and the whole sphere that he created on YouTube, like 1459 01:12:29,080 --> 01:12:31,839 Speaker 1: made it possible that we could know, like the concept 1460 01:12:31,960 --> 01:12:34,360 Speaker 1: is proven that we can like move into it. So anyway, 1461 01:12:34,400 --> 01:12:36,800 Speaker 1: I pay very close attention, I think to that because 1462 01:12:36,840 --> 01:12:39,360 Speaker 1: I think the death of Late Night is the precursor 1463 01:12:39,439 --> 01:12:41,640 Speaker 1: to the eventual death of news, or at least I 1464 01:12:41,720 --> 01:12:43,639 Speaker 1: very very much hope. So so I'm glad we got 1465 01:12:43,640 --> 01:12:46,479 Speaker 1: in on the ground floor, crystal yes of that revolution. Indeed, 1466 01:12:49,080 --> 01:12:50,800 Speaker 1: all right, Zager, what are you looking at? Well? A 1467 01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:53,320 Speaker 1: dark anniversary in America passed over the weekend, one that 1468 01:12:53,320 --> 01:12:56,240 Speaker 1: almost nobody in media really noticed. September twenty ninth, two 1469 01:12:56,280 --> 01:12:59,320 Speaker 1: thousand and eight, the largest, the largest drop in the 1470 01:12:59,360 --> 01:13:02,200 Speaker 1: history of the US stock market. As Lehman Brothers failed, 1471 01:13:02,360 --> 01:13:05,360 Speaker 1: AIG was being rescued, and as Congress failed to pass 1472 01:13:05,439 --> 01:13:08,439 Speaker 1: the initial bank bailout bill. To underscore how crazy it 1473 01:13:08,520 --> 01:13:10,280 Speaker 1: was at the time. For our audience who may be 1474 01:13:10,400 --> 01:13:13,519 Speaker 1: too young to remember, here's a small taste. Let's talk 1475 01:13:13,520 --> 01:13:16,400 Speaker 1: about the speed with which we are watching this market deteriorate. 1476 01:13:16,560 --> 01:13:20,160 Speaker 1: We read everywhere essentially down by four five percent. We're 1477 01:13:20,200 --> 01:13:23,280 Speaker 1: down over sixteen percent. Now at the same time has 1478 01:13:23,320 --> 01:13:27,040 Speaker 1: fallen about eighteen percent. The stock market is now down 1479 01:13:27,200 --> 01:13:31,479 Speaker 1: twenty one percent. Because we now down forty three percent. 1480 01:13:32,160 --> 01:13:34,200 Speaker 1: What in the world is happening on Wall Street? Two 1481 01:13:34,240 --> 01:13:37,799 Speaker 1: year no yields one from one ninety to one sixty six. 1482 01:13:38,120 --> 01:13:40,280 Speaker 1: In the blink of it on the Nasdaq, everything and 1483 01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:42,840 Speaker 1: more has been completely wiped out. It was the worst 1484 01:13:42,960 --> 01:13:46,400 Speaker 1: day on Wall Street since the crash of nineteen eighty seven. 1485 01:13:47,479 --> 01:13:49,880 Speaker 1: Brings back some real memories, but it's important to start 1486 01:13:49,920 --> 01:13:52,120 Speaker 1: there because that's what put us on the path to 1487 01:13:52,160 --> 01:13:54,439 Speaker 1: where we are today. In a lot of ways, it 1488 01:13:54,479 --> 01:13:56,640 Speaker 1: was the true turning point and the beginning point that 1489 01:13:56,720 --> 01:13:58,280 Speaker 1: in one hundred years they're going to write as the 1490 01:13:58,280 --> 01:14:00,960 Speaker 1: start of a new economic era, the beginning of the 1491 01:14:00,960 --> 01:14:04,000 Speaker 1: mass bailouts for the banks, the decline of middle class wealth, 1492 01:14:04,160 --> 01:14:06,760 Speaker 1: the continuation of business as usual, and so much more. 1493 01:14:07,000 --> 01:14:09,679 Speaker 1: And what's crazy about that, considering two thousand and eight 1494 01:14:09,880 --> 01:14:12,719 Speaker 1: is what precipitated all of that in the first place. Housing, 1495 01:14:13,040 --> 01:14:15,240 Speaker 1: the subprime mortgage crisis, of course, is what caused the 1496 01:14:15,280 --> 01:14:17,920 Speaker 1: crash in the first place. Insane loan products that let 1497 01:14:17,960 --> 01:14:20,479 Speaker 1: people had no business buying houses buy three or more. 1498 01:14:20,720 --> 01:14:23,920 Speaker 1: Eventually default crashes the entire economy. We all know that story. 1499 01:14:24,160 --> 01:14:26,599 Speaker 1: This point of failure is what Washington focuses in after 1500 01:14:26,680 --> 01:14:30,000 Speaker 1: the crisis, instituting all sorts of regulations to verify that 1501 01:14:30,040 --> 01:14:33,000 Speaker 1: would be homeowners had to meet basic standards before they 1502 01:14:33,000 --> 01:14:35,400 Speaker 1: could be approved for a mortgage. Of course, that was 1503 01:14:35,439 --> 01:14:37,759 Speaker 1: sensible and I support it, but there was a critical 1504 01:14:37,800 --> 01:14:40,559 Speaker 1: flaw on this plan. We only focused on making sure 1505 01:14:40,600 --> 01:14:42,839 Speaker 1: that the people who wanted to buy houses could meet 1506 01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:46,040 Speaker 1: basic standards. We didn't focus on doing anything to make 1507 01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:49,559 Speaker 1: sure that people could meet those basic standards. Wages for 1508 01:14:49,720 --> 01:14:52,639 Speaker 1: US workers, especially those in the working class, have stayed 1509 01:14:52,680 --> 01:14:55,799 Speaker 1: effectively flat in real purchasing power since the nineteen seventies. 1510 01:14:56,160 --> 01:14:59,120 Speaker 1: Considering the context that since two thousand and nine January, 1511 01:14:59,320 --> 01:15:01,519 Speaker 1: the average price of a home in the US has 1512 01:15:01,560 --> 01:15:04,760 Speaker 1: gone up by one hundred percent. When housing prices are 1513 01:15:04,800 --> 01:15:07,280 Speaker 1: so far apart from wages, you are looking at a 1514 01:15:07,320 --> 01:15:09,960 Speaker 1: bad situation and that's the one that we're in right now. 1515 01:15:10,280 --> 01:15:12,559 Speaker 1: So I know many have cheered on the slowdown and 1516 01:15:12,600 --> 01:15:14,680 Speaker 1: so far in the housing market, but something I want 1517 01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:17,519 Speaker 1: to emphasize for everyone is it's not slowing down enough 1518 01:15:17,760 --> 01:15:20,760 Speaker 1: to make it affordable for you at all. As the 1519 01:15:20,760 --> 01:15:24,080 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. Even with the slowdown, 1520 01:15:24,200 --> 01:15:26,599 Speaker 1: average Americans are now at the point where they are 1521 01:15:26,600 --> 01:15:29,800 Speaker 1: getting priced out to a historic degree. Our friend Joe 1522 01:15:29,800 --> 01:15:32,360 Speaker 1: wisenthal Over at Bloomberg writes that in the span of 1523 01:15:32,439 --> 01:15:35,040 Speaker 1: just one year, a standard thirty year fixed mortgage would 1524 01:15:35,040 --> 01:15:38,559 Speaker 1: be had for around three percent interests. Today that number 1525 01:15:38,720 --> 01:15:42,720 Speaker 1: is seven percent, leading to quote the most severe deterioration 1526 01:15:43,120 --> 01:15:46,720 Speaker 1: in affordability on record in the history of the US 1527 01:15:46,760 --> 01:15:49,639 Speaker 1: housing market. The rate increase has led to the typical 1528 01:15:49,680 --> 01:15:52,800 Speaker 1: mortgage in the US jumping one thousand percent over the 1529 01:15:52,880 --> 01:15:55,960 Speaker 1: last year, a thousand dollars over the last year. When 1530 01:15:56,000 --> 01:15:59,400 Speaker 1: we break it down, especially for first time buyers, it's crazy. 1531 01:16:00,120 --> 01:16:03,120 Speaker 1: Say your budget is twenty five hundred dollars a month 1532 01:16:03,280 --> 01:16:06,519 Speaker 1: for a house today, that means you can afford a 1533 01:16:06,560 --> 01:16:09,439 Speaker 1: house that cost four hundred and seventy six thousand dollars. 1534 01:16:09,760 --> 01:16:12,240 Speaker 1: But last year that would mean that you could afford 1535 01:16:12,240 --> 01:16:14,559 Speaker 1: a house with a price of seven hundred and fifty 1536 01:16:14,560 --> 01:16:18,519 Speaker 1: eight thousand dollars. Now ask yourself, have housing prices really 1537 01:16:18,560 --> 01:16:21,120 Speaker 1: fallen from seven hundred and fifty grand to four hundred 1538 01:16:21,120 --> 01:16:23,519 Speaker 1: and seventy for the same house. Also those figures I 1539 01:16:23,560 --> 01:16:25,760 Speaker 1: just quoted you, that's if you have twenty percent down, 1540 01:16:25,920 --> 01:16:28,679 Speaker 1: which of course most people do not. With inflation eating 1541 01:16:28,680 --> 01:16:31,719 Speaker 1: away of savings, they're even less likely to have. Take 1542 01:16:31,760 --> 01:16:33,840 Speaker 1: average out of it. Point to the places where people 1543 01:16:33,840 --> 01:16:35,920 Speaker 1: most want to live in the United States, it's even 1544 01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:39,120 Speaker 1: more crazy. Bloomberg put together the data for ten random 1545 01:16:39,120 --> 01:16:42,280 Speaker 1: metro areas across the country, all with the same story. 1546 01:16:43,040 --> 01:16:46,240 Speaker 1: City of Austin. The typical new home buyer could expect 1547 01:16:46,240 --> 01:16:49,280 Speaker 1: to pay eleven hundred dollars mortgage in twenty twenty. Today 1548 01:16:49,439 --> 01:16:52,320 Speaker 1: it's now three thousand. Boise, Idaho. Twenty twenty it was 1549 01:16:52,320 --> 01:16:55,240 Speaker 1: one thousand, today twenty five hundred. Akron, Ohio. It was 1550 01:16:55,240 --> 01:16:58,360 Speaker 1: five hundred dollars today it's one thousand. Miami twelve hundred 1551 01:16:58,479 --> 01:17:01,519 Speaker 1: now three thousand. New York it was fourteen hundred now 1552 01:17:01,600 --> 01:17:03,920 Speaker 1: three thousand, you get the idea. You're talking about one 1553 01:17:04,000 --> 01:17:05,960 Speaker 1: hundred percent increase with little to no similar drop and 1554 01:17:06,000 --> 01:17:08,519 Speaker 1: sticker price. This is the most likely future of the 1555 01:17:08,600 --> 01:17:10,600 Speaker 1: US housing market. You have a slow down at the 1556 01:17:10,600 --> 01:17:13,080 Speaker 1: price level, but with very very high rates doing two 1557 01:17:13,160 --> 01:17:16,000 Speaker 1: pernicious things. Number One, you're making it harder for people 1558 01:17:16,000 --> 01:17:18,320 Speaker 1: to buy a first house, meaning they will rent for 1559 01:17:18,439 --> 01:17:21,280 Speaker 1: much longer. Worse, with more people renting and the same 1560 01:17:21,280 --> 01:17:24,559 Speaker 1: renting stock, it means rent prices go up because of demand. 1561 01:17:24,800 --> 01:17:27,320 Speaker 1: If rent goes up, you both spike inflation. You push 1562 01:17:27,360 --> 01:17:29,400 Speaker 1: people downward in the quality that they can get for 1563 01:17:29,439 --> 01:17:32,160 Speaker 1: the same price, and it eats away your ability to 1564 01:17:32,160 --> 01:17:34,519 Speaker 1: even save for a home in the first place. Also, 1565 01:17:34,800 --> 01:17:37,599 Speaker 1: as far as four time houses go, good luck getting one, 1566 01:17:37,680 --> 01:17:40,400 Speaker 1: because they really do not exist anymore. The type of 1567 01:17:40,400 --> 01:17:43,439 Speaker 1: home an average middle class person could afford realistically of 1568 01:17:43,520 --> 01:17:47,400 Speaker 1: twenty percent down does not exist in housing stock, existing 1569 01:17:47,640 --> 01:17:50,400 Speaker 1: and new ones today. The most ironic, as The Times 1570 01:17:50,400 --> 01:17:52,800 Speaker 1: points out, is that the original starter homes of the 1571 01:17:52,840 --> 01:17:56,280 Speaker 1: nineteen seventies, purchased in many cases by single earner households 1572 01:17:56,320 --> 01:17:58,800 Speaker 1: at the time, are now selling for an average of 1573 01:17:58,840 --> 01:18:02,080 Speaker 1: half a million dollars. Even non metro areas, nobody has 1574 01:18:02,120 --> 01:18:04,599 Speaker 1: come up yet with the replacement for them. There is 1575 01:18:04,640 --> 01:18:07,960 Speaker 1: no starter home anymore for a variety of reasons. Everyone 1576 01:18:08,080 --> 01:18:10,080 Speaker 1: likes to talk about housing stock, which certainly is a 1577 01:18:10,160 --> 01:18:14,000 Speaker 1: huge problem, but the current housing demand is just as big. Today, 1578 01:18:14,160 --> 01:18:17,160 Speaker 1: only eight percent of new single family homes are less 1579 01:18:17,160 --> 01:18:19,519 Speaker 1: than the fourteen hundred square feet, while in the nineteen 1580 01:18:19,560 --> 01:18:22,479 Speaker 1: forties it was seventy percent of homes. The houses being 1581 01:18:22,479 --> 01:18:25,240 Speaker 1: built today are being built specifically to cater to the 1582 01:18:25,280 --> 01:18:29,599 Speaker 1: wealthier demographic, namely boomers and upper middle class professionals, whose 1583 01:18:29,640 --> 01:18:32,680 Speaker 1: stock portfolios over the last two decades have bloomed to 1584 01:18:32,720 --> 01:18:35,800 Speaker 1: a degree that many of us cannot fathom. I've shown 1585 01:18:35,840 --> 01:18:39,280 Speaker 1: this graphic before, but it's really worth internalizing. In nineteen seventy, 1586 01:18:39,320 --> 01:18:41,080 Speaker 1: the price of a new house was twenty five thousand 1587 01:18:41,120 --> 01:18:43,840 Speaker 1: dollars the average income was ten thousand, six hundred dollars 1588 01:18:43,880 --> 01:18:47,080 Speaker 1: a year. Now, look just how incredibly affordable everything on 1589 01:18:47,120 --> 01:18:49,800 Speaker 1: that chart is, and compare it to today. The decoupling 1590 01:18:49,800 --> 01:18:52,479 Speaker 1: of inflation for almost everything that you need in your 1591 01:18:52,520 --> 01:18:55,000 Speaker 1: life to be prosperous and from the average amount of 1592 01:18:55,040 --> 01:18:57,519 Speaker 1: money that you make is the core problem that I 1593 01:18:57,600 --> 01:19:00,000 Speaker 1: keep coming back to we can talk till we're blue 1594 01:19:00,080 --> 01:19:03,200 Speaker 1: in the face about housing regulations and more. But to me, 1595 01:19:03,280 --> 01:19:06,640 Speaker 1: the answer is actually much more simple. Most people in 1596 01:19:06,680 --> 01:19:09,679 Speaker 1: this country just need to make a lot more money 1597 01:19:09,800 --> 01:19:12,400 Speaker 1: than they have for decades. And I wish I had 1598 01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:16,280 Speaker 1: a perfect solution, but identifying that problem is sometimes the 1599 01:19:16,400 --> 01:19:18,599 Speaker 1: very best starting point. It's something I just kept coming 1600 01:19:18,640 --> 01:19:20,400 Speaker 1: back to in this I was like, you know, and 1601 01:19:20,479 --> 01:19:23,160 Speaker 1: if you want to hear my reaction to Sagres's monologue, 1602 01:19:23,200 --> 01:19:29,400 Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot com. Christalll 1603 01:19:29,400 --> 01:19:31,559 Speaker 1: what are you taking a look at? Well? The budget 1604 01:19:31,600 --> 01:19:35,000 Speaker 1: details of new UK Prime Minister Liz Trust's mini budget 1605 01:19:35,120 --> 01:19:39,160 Speaker 1: are almost comical in their reverse robin Hood absurdity. So 1606 01:19:39,240 --> 01:19:42,440 Speaker 1: we're talking about eliminating the top tax bracket for individuals 1607 01:19:42,479 --> 01:19:44,840 Speaker 1: altogether at a huge giveaway to the richest citizens, and 1608 01:19:44,920 --> 01:19:47,640 Speaker 1: even going so far as to ditch the cap on 1609 01:19:47,840 --> 01:19:52,240 Speaker 1: banker bonuses. I can practically hear the pitchfork sharpening from here. 1610 01:19:52,560 --> 01:19:55,360 Speaker 1: It is such a caricature. It would actually almost be funny, 1611 01:19:55,400 --> 01:19:58,040 Speaker 1: a Thatcher Reagan fever dream, if the results were not 1612 01:19:58,080 --> 01:20:02,080 Speaker 1: instantly so catastrophic. In fact, the backlash was so severe 1613 01:20:02,200 --> 01:20:04,760 Speaker 1: that as of this morning, Trust was forced to backtrack, 1614 01:20:05,080 --> 01:20:07,600 Speaker 1: ditching the centerpiece of that program, those tax cuts for 1615 01:20:07,640 --> 01:20:10,439 Speaker 1: the rich, in order to diffuse a rebellion from within 1616 01:20:10,560 --> 01:20:12,960 Speaker 1: her own party. I think it's important to break this 1617 01:20:13,040 --> 01:20:15,640 Speaker 1: all down, though, because the whole episode is truly the 1618 01:20:15,640 --> 01:20:19,000 Speaker 1: most thorough indictment of trickle down neoliberal economics that I 1619 01:20:19,040 --> 01:20:21,320 Speaker 1: have ever seen, and so it's really worth spending some 1620 01:20:21,400 --> 01:20:24,320 Speaker 1: time digging into exactly what happened. So the fall out 1621 01:20:24,360 --> 01:20:27,639 Speaker 1: here was immediate. Once that mini budget with the huge 1622 01:20:27,640 --> 01:20:30,840 Speaker 1: giveaways the rich was announced, the market for UK government 1623 01:20:30,920 --> 01:20:35,000 Speaker 1: bonds those are called guilts immediately freaked out, massively raising 1624 01:20:35,000 --> 01:20:37,280 Speaker 1: the cost of borrowing for the government and for many 1625 01:20:37,280 --> 01:20:40,000 Speaker 1: other corporations and individuals as well. That's what you can 1626 01:20:40,000 --> 01:20:43,000 Speaker 1: see here in this chart. Yields on ten year government 1627 01:20:43,040 --> 01:20:46,000 Speaker 1: bonds spiked one hundred and thirty basis points in four 1628 01:20:46,080 --> 01:20:49,599 Speaker 1: days two hundred and seventy five basis points over seven weeks. 1629 01:20:49,880 --> 01:20:52,640 Speaker 1: That is an insane jump, and it triggered then a 1630 01:20:52,720 --> 01:20:56,320 Speaker 1: whole series of follow on events as well. Most notably, 1631 01:20:56,680 --> 01:21:00,479 Speaker 1: pension funds started to collapse. Now in the UK, so 1632 01:21:00,600 --> 01:21:04,080 Speaker 1: called defined benefit pension funds where you're guaranteed a certain 1633 01:21:04,120 --> 01:21:07,000 Speaker 1: pay upon retirement. Those are still pretty common there, even 1634 01:21:07,040 --> 01:21:09,479 Speaker 1: though they are not common here anymore. And many of 1635 01:21:09,520 --> 01:21:12,479 Speaker 1: these pension funds had employed an investment strategy which was 1636 01:21:12,520 --> 01:21:17,799 Speaker 1: supposedly more conservative and relatively low risk, called liability driven investment. 1637 01:21:17,840 --> 01:21:19,400 Speaker 1: Now I'm not going to bore you with the details, 1638 01:21:19,720 --> 01:21:23,760 Speaker 1: but basically these funds were really dependent on those UK 1639 01:21:23,920 --> 01:21:27,640 Speaker 1: government bonds maintaining some basic level of sanity. When the 1640 01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:31,160 Speaker 1: wheels came off, they were totally screwed, forced in having 1641 01:21:31,160 --> 01:21:33,639 Speaker 1: to sell off other assets in order to make margin 1642 01:21:33,680 --> 01:21:36,719 Speaker 1: calls on that government debt. And once these large funds 1643 01:21:36,800 --> 01:21:40,160 Speaker 1: have to start fire selling everything, you can easily imagine 1644 01:21:40,200 --> 01:21:44,799 Speaker 1: a huge contagion that infects basically every sector of the economy. 1645 01:21:45,200 --> 01:21:48,000 Speaker 1: At the same time, this instant, massive interest rate hike 1646 01:21:48,280 --> 01:21:51,320 Speaker 1: was a terrifying prospect for homeowners and those who were 1647 01:21:51,400 --> 01:21:53,960 Speaker 1: just about to buy a home. Now. The UK mortgage 1648 01:21:53,960 --> 01:21:56,960 Speaker 1: market is a little bit different from ours here. Typically, 1649 01:21:57,320 --> 01:21:58,840 Speaker 1: once you lock in a merge rate, you got it 1650 01:21:58,880 --> 01:22:01,200 Speaker 1: set for the length of your thirty year fixed rate mortgage. 1651 01:22:01,240 --> 01:22:04,200 Speaker 1: In the UK, about a third of homeowners are set 1652 01:22:04,240 --> 01:22:06,479 Speaker 1: to have their rates reset in just two years time. 1653 01:22:06,760 --> 01:22:09,800 Speaker 1: According to an analyst cited by Bloomberg, one point four 1654 01:22:09,880 --> 01:22:13,200 Speaker 1: million borrowers will have their rates were set within the year. 1655 01:22:13,840 --> 01:22:17,080 Speaker 1: They watched with horror as rates spiked and along with 1656 01:22:17,120 --> 01:22:20,040 Speaker 1: them their future mortgage payments in a nation already struggling 1657 01:22:20,160 --> 01:22:23,719 Speaker 1: mightily with housing fordability. But it was most immediately brutal 1658 01:22:23,760 --> 01:22:26,160 Speaker 1: for those who were just on the cusp of buying, 1659 01:22:26,479 --> 01:22:29,280 Speaker 1: as the market chaos caused banks to actually pull a 1660 01:22:29,320 --> 01:22:32,000 Speaker 1: bunch of their mortgage products off of the market while 1661 01:22:32,000 --> 01:22:35,519 Speaker 1: they waited for conditions to settle down. The potential for 1662 01:22:35,560 --> 01:22:38,719 Speaker 1: outright collapse. It was actually so pronounced that the Bank 1663 01:22:38,760 --> 01:22:42,040 Speaker 1: of England, that's the UK central bank, they were forced 1664 01:22:42,120 --> 01:22:45,120 Speaker 1: into action. Now. The UK has also been suffering with 1665 01:22:45,200 --> 01:22:48,559 Speaker 1: high inflation, actually higher than ours, and huge energy price bikes, 1666 01:22:48,680 --> 01:22:51,040 Speaker 1: much more severe than what we are dealing with here, 1667 01:22:51,360 --> 01:22:53,639 Speaker 1: so to try to combat it, like our central bank, 1668 01:22:53,800 --> 01:22:56,000 Speaker 1: theirs has been hiking rates in an effort to get 1669 01:22:56,040 --> 01:22:59,559 Speaker 1: that inflation under control. But faced with liz Trust's economic 1670 01:22:59,640 --> 01:23:03,920 Speaker 1: colam they were forced into immediate action in the opposite direction, 1671 01:23:04,280 --> 01:23:08,120 Speaker 1: buying up those government guilts in order to prevent total collapse. 1672 01:23:08,400 --> 01:23:10,680 Speaker 1: According to an economics professor, was quoted by the New 1673 01:23:10,760 --> 01:23:13,960 Speaker 1: York Times quote, the bank has had to reverse course 1674 01:23:14,040 --> 01:23:17,679 Speaker 1: on its objectives practically overnight. It looks like the bank 1675 01:23:17,760 --> 01:23:20,439 Speaker 1: is being forced to clean up the adverse consequences of 1676 01:23:20,479 --> 01:23:24,599 Speaker 1: the UK Treasury's actions. At the same time, that's not all, 1677 01:23:24,920 --> 01:23:28,599 Speaker 1: the British pound also crashed to its lowest level against 1678 01:23:28,640 --> 01:23:31,320 Speaker 1: the dollar. Here's what that looks like. Good news if 1679 01:23:31,320 --> 01:23:33,280 Speaker 1: you're an American, I guess looking to travel to London 1680 01:23:33,280 --> 01:23:35,720 Speaker 1: since prices just got instantly a lot cheaper for us. 1681 01:23:36,200 --> 01:23:39,200 Speaker 1: Disastrous news if you're living in the UK and already 1682 01:23:39,200 --> 01:23:42,160 Speaker 1: suffering with that high inflation. When the pound is weak, 1683 01:23:42,320 --> 01:23:44,280 Speaker 1: it means that it will cost more to purchase all 1684 01:23:44,280 --> 01:23:48,879 Speaker 1: imported goods, further exacerbating an already bad situation. Now, in fairness, 1685 01:23:48,960 --> 01:23:51,479 Speaker 1: the dollar is strengthened against basically every currency because of 1686 01:23:51,520 --> 01:23:55,000 Speaker 1: our own central bank's policy. Basically we are exporting our 1687 01:23:55,040 --> 01:23:58,280 Speaker 1: inflation around the world. But the size of the fall 1688 01:23:58,360 --> 01:24:02,240 Speaker 1: for the pound was triggered by this disastrous budget giving 1689 01:24:02,280 --> 01:24:05,400 Speaker 1: away the store to the rich. Now, this whole confluence 1690 01:24:05,439 --> 01:24:08,880 Speaker 1: of events also created an immediate political crisis for the 1691 01:24:08,880 --> 01:24:11,479 Speaker 1: brand new Prime Minister Liz Trust and the Conservative Party. 1692 01:24:11,640 --> 01:24:14,919 Speaker 1: Writ large. Not only has the budget been an utter disaster, 1693 01:24:15,080 --> 01:24:18,280 Speaker 1: but she has been wooden and completely lacking an empathy 1694 01:24:18,400 --> 01:24:23,040 Speaker 1: in her response, offering ridiculous excuses like this is all 1695 01:24:23,120 --> 01:24:26,680 Speaker 1: somehow Vladimir Putin's fault. Here's how she defended herself in 1696 01:24:26,720 --> 01:24:30,439 Speaker 1: a local BBC radio station interview. I am the Chancellor, 1697 01:24:30,479 --> 01:24:33,280 Speaker 1: have taken decisive action to deal with that. From this 1698 01:24:33,400 --> 01:24:36,920 Speaker 1: weekend the energy bill price guarantee comes in, so people 1699 01:24:36,960 --> 01:24:39,559 Speaker 1: will be facing no more than two thousand and five 1700 01:24:39,720 --> 01:24:43,719 Speaker 1: hundred pounds for a typical energy bill. We've also taken 1701 01:24:43,800 --> 01:24:47,120 Speaker 1: action to reduce our tax burden and spur Yeah. But 1702 01:24:47,479 --> 01:24:51,320 Speaker 1: Prime Minister, with reject economic answer you've given to every 1703 01:24:51,400 --> 01:24:54,280 Speaker 1: BBC local radio station this morning. You've got the Bank 1704 01:24:54,360 --> 01:24:57,040 Speaker 1: of England stepping in now to try and clean up 1705 01:24:57,080 --> 01:24:59,759 Speaker 1: a mess a government's has caused that has never happened. 1706 01:25:01,560 --> 01:25:07,360 Speaker 1: We have a very very difficult economic global situation because 1707 01:25:07,360 --> 01:25:10,719 Speaker 1: of the war that Vladimir Putin has perpetrated in Ukraine, 1708 01:25:11,240 --> 01:25:15,360 Speaker 1: and countries are under pressure. But this isn't this isn't Putin. 1709 01:25:15,560 --> 01:25:18,320 Speaker 1: This isn't just about Putin. I mean your Chancellor on 1710 01:25:18,400 --> 01:25:21,200 Speaker 1: Friday opened up the stable door and spook the horses 1711 01:25:21,240 --> 01:25:23,200 Speaker 1: so much you can almost see the economy being dragged 1712 01:25:23,240 --> 01:25:26,679 Speaker 1: behind them. Blaming putin pretty incredible there, And sure enough, 1713 01:25:26,720 --> 01:25:30,000 Speaker 1: the economic collapse was matched with a pulling collapse. The 1714 01:25:30,040 --> 01:25:32,800 Speaker 1: center left Labor Party surged to its largest lead in 1715 01:25:32,880 --> 01:25:36,120 Speaker 1: twenty years as voters reckon with the astonishing mess made 1716 01:25:36,160 --> 01:25:39,360 Speaker 1: by Liz Trust and the Conservatives. A UGOV Pollpeg's Labor 1717 01:25:39,439 --> 01:25:43,040 Speaker 1: at a thirty three point lead over the Conservatives. Now 1718 01:25:43,120 --> 01:25:45,360 Speaker 1: that shouldn't be a surprise. The policies in this budget 1719 01:25:45,400 --> 01:25:48,040 Speaker 1: are truly radical, wildly out of step with where the 1720 01:25:48,160 --> 01:25:50,920 Speaker 1: UK public is, especially at this moment. The movement is 1721 01:25:51,040 --> 01:25:53,600 Speaker 1: enough that some analysts are seeing complete reversal of a 1722 01:25:53,600 --> 01:25:56,880 Speaker 1: political realignment which had seen more working class voters move 1723 01:25:56,920 --> 01:26:00,720 Speaker 1: into the Conservative Party, specifically over Brexit. One professor from 1724 01:26:00,720 --> 01:26:02,960 Speaker 1: the University of Kent put it quote, We're seeing the 1725 01:26:03,040 --> 01:26:06,840 Speaker 1: complete implosion of the Conservative vote. They're losing middle class 1726 01:26:06,920 --> 01:26:09,880 Speaker 1: voters who are alienated by Brexit and working class voters 1727 01:26:09,920 --> 01:26:14,160 Speaker 1: who are alienated by their economic policy. Basically, guys, the 1728 01:26:14,200 --> 01:26:16,840 Speaker 1: moral of this whole story is that trickle down economics 1729 01:26:16,880 --> 01:26:21,200 Speaker 1: are bad, really bad, catastrophically bad, so bad that the 1730 01:26:21,240 --> 01:26:25,639 Speaker 1: immediate ramifications of this budget were actually worse than when 1731 01:26:25,680 --> 01:26:29,280 Speaker 1: COVID shut down the entire economy. Just think about that. 1732 01:26:29,840 --> 01:26:33,120 Speaker 1: The economic story that we have been told for generations, 1733 01:26:33,240 --> 01:26:36,320 Speaker 1: it is a bold faced lie, a fantasy concocted by 1734 01:26:36,320 --> 01:26:38,760 Speaker 1: delusional minds that is meant to wrap fealty to the 1735 01:26:38,840 --> 01:26:42,040 Speaker 1: rich in some sort of cloak of intellectualism. Scarcely do 1736 01:26:42,120 --> 01:26:45,320 Speaker 1: we see such a clear demonstration of how economically and 1737 01:26:45,400 --> 01:26:48,479 Speaker 1: morally bankrupt the whole neoliberal project of the past half 1738 01:26:48,560 --> 01:26:53,120 Speaker 1: century really has been. The embrace of this economic radicalism 1739 01:26:53,160 --> 01:26:56,840 Speaker 1: was an entire revolution with disastrous results for ordinary people, 1740 01:26:57,000 --> 01:26:59,920 Speaker 1: and we all continue to live with its catastrophic effect. 1741 01:27:00,400 --> 01:27:02,960 Speaker 1: And it was so I mean, she's a true ideologue 1742 01:27:02,960 --> 01:27:04,640 Speaker 1: on this stuff. And if you want to hear my 1743 01:27:04,800 --> 01:27:08,160 Speaker 1: reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at 1744 01:27:08,200 --> 01:27:13,360 Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot com. So let's go ahead and put those 1745 01:27:13,400 --> 01:27:15,800 Speaker 1: results up on the screen. Here you can see that 1746 01:27:16,200 --> 01:27:19,599 Speaker 1: Lula was ahead in the first round, but is going 1747 01:27:19,640 --> 01:27:22,200 Speaker 1: to have to face Bolsnaro in that presidential runoff. I 1748 01:27:22,200 --> 01:27:25,559 Speaker 1: think underperformed where the polls had him to a certain extent. 1749 01:27:25,920 --> 01:27:28,880 Speaker 1: But we have Glenn Greenwild here Pulser Prize winning journalists 1750 01:27:28,880 --> 01:27:31,439 Speaker 1: who of course lives in Brazil, has broken some of 1751 01:27:31,479 --> 01:27:36,400 Speaker 1: the most significant news about Lula and Bolsonaro specifically, and 1752 01:27:36,479 --> 01:27:38,080 Speaker 1: he joins us now, great to see Glenn, Good to 1753 01:27:38,080 --> 01:27:41,080 Speaker 1: see you, you guys. I would love for you for 1754 01:27:41,160 --> 01:27:45,920 Speaker 1: people who haven't followed Brazilian politics closely, to explain the 1755 01:27:45,960 --> 01:27:49,240 Speaker 1: context here, why this election is so significant, why Lula 1756 01:27:49,360 --> 01:27:51,400 Speaker 1: was in prison, how he got out of prison, and 1757 01:27:51,520 --> 01:27:55,680 Speaker 1: what this election really means in the Brazilian context. Sure, So, 1758 01:27:55,720 --> 01:27:57,840 Speaker 1: I mean, just to begin with Brazil as an inherently 1759 01:27:57,880 --> 01:28:00,320 Speaker 1: important country and always has been throughout the Cold wor 1760 01:28:00,320 --> 01:28:04,200 Speaker 1: It's the second largest country in the Hemisphere. It's the 1761 01:28:04,320 --> 01:28:07,960 Speaker 1: largest and their fore most influential country in Latin America. 1762 01:28:08,080 --> 01:28:11,880 Speaker 1: It has incredibly important resources and including enormous amounts of 1763 01:28:12,320 --> 01:28:15,320 Speaker 1: oil reserves as well as the Amazon, which has become 1764 01:28:15,400 --> 01:28:19,040 Speaker 1: the most important environmental resource. So Brazil just in and 1765 01:28:19,080 --> 01:28:23,440 Speaker 1: of itself is a great concern now politically to the world. 1766 01:28:23,800 --> 01:28:26,759 Speaker 1: And when you add on top of that the fact 1767 01:28:26,760 --> 01:28:31,200 Speaker 1: that we have now a very polarized political system where 1768 01:28:31,280 --> 01:28:34,360 Speaker 1: there are real differences between the party We're not talking 1769 01:28:34,400 --> 01:28:39,439 Speaker 1: about mid Tromney, mid Romney versus Barack Obama. We're talking 1770 01:28:39,520 --> 01:28:43,280 Speaker 1: about two extremely different and radical ideologies that have now 1771 01:28:43,320 --> 01:28:47,880 Speaker 1: completely polarized, and the entire center has virtually disappeared. There's 1772 01:28:47,920 --> 01:28:50,960 Speaker 1: a lot at stake in terms of the outcome of 1773 01:28:51,080 --> 01:28:54,919 Speaker 1: not just the presidential election, but also the elections beneath 1774 01:28:54,960 --> 01:28:56,760 Speaker 1: that for the House, for the Senate. And there's a 1775 01:28:56,800 --> 01:28:59,160 Speaker 1: lot of interesting things that went on there that I 1776 01:28:59,160 --> 01:29:02,439 Speaker 1: think are really worth the talking about too. Yeah, absolutely so, Glenn. 1777 01:29:02,479 --> 01:29:04,600 Speaker 1: What happened here in the election? I know that the 1778 01:29:04,640 --> 01:29:07,759 Speaker 1: polls that indicated that Lula might win enough to avoid 1779 01:29:07,840 --> 01:29:10,719 Speaker 1: even a runoff, it appears that he performed I wouldn't 1780 01:29:10,760 --> 01:29:14,519 Speaker 1: say significantly below that, but below that to a certain degree. 1781 01:29:14,840 --> 01:29:17,160 Speaker 1: Does Brazil have the same poling problems that we do? 1782 01:29:17,320 --> 01:29:19,599 Speaker 1: What were the major issues at stake between the two 1783 01:29:19,640 --> 01:29:24,680 Speaker 1: major candidates. I can't overstate, Saga, what a humiliating, a 1784 01:29:24,680 --> 01:29:28,960 Speaker 1: disastrous night it was for the polling industry in Brazil. 1785 01:29:29,400 --> 01:29:33,000 Speaker 1: I have not ever seen pulling this radically wrong in 1786 01:29:33,080 --> 01:29:36,479 Speaker 1: my life. I mean, on the presidential level, it wasn't 1787 01:29:36,680 --> 01:29:42,000 Speaker 1: that terrible. There were no polsters affirmatively asserting that Lula 1788 01:29:42,160 --> 01:29:45,200 Speaker 1: would win somewhere predicting he would in the first round. 1789 01:29:45,400 --> 01:29:47,559 Speaker 1: But even there, I don't think there was a single 1790 01:29:47,600 --> 01:29:51,599 Speaker 1: polling company that are sort of in the top tier 1791 01:29:51,960 --> 01:29:55,880 Speaker 1: that had the difference any less than twelve to sixteen 1792 01:29:55,960 --> 01:29:59,040 Speaker 1: points between Bolscenario and Lula, and Lul ended up only 1793 01:29:59,080 --> 01:30:03,479 Speaker 1: five points ahead. But the races that are most important 1794 01:30:03,560 --> 01:30:07,360 Speaker 1: right underneath that, like governorships in Rio Dijonnario and some 1795 01:30:07,520 --> 01:30:11,280 Speaker 1: Polo and senators for those two imposed supportant state. I'll 1796 01:30:11,280 --> 01:30:13,599 Speaker 1: just give you a couple of examples, and they were 1797 01:30:13,640 --> 01:30:17,880 Speaker 1: all in favor of the left. In the senate race 1798 01:30:18,040 --> 01:30:20,840 Speaker 1: in in Some Paulo, there were two candidates, one on 1799 01:30:20,880 --> 01:30:24,519 Speaker 1: the left and a Bolshonardista, and the Canada polls had 1800 01:30:24,640 --> 01:30:28,040 Speaker 1: the candidate on the left winning by fifteen points, and 1801 01:30:28,160 --> 01:30:32,160 Speaker 1: instead the Bolsonarisha candidate won by twenty one points. That's 1802 01:30:32,200 --> 01:30:36,240 Speaker 1: a swing of thirty six points. Uring riyo Ji Jannio. 1803 01:30:36,640 --> 01:30:41,280 Speaker 1: They had the Bolsanarisha candidate, who's the incumbent, somewhat ahead 1804 01:30:41,360 --> 01:30:43,760 Speaker 1: by six or seven points but likely to be in 1805 01:30:43,800 --> 01:30:47,839 Speaker 1: a runoff. Instead, he destroyed the left wing candidate easily 1806 01:30:47,880 --> 01:30:50,599 Speaker 1: won without a runoff and won by thirty two points. 1807 01:30:50,600 --> 01:30:52,599 Speaker 1: And you go down the list and over and over. 1808 01:30:52,640 --> 01:30:57,120 Speaker 1: You're talking about extremely radical errors, all again in favor 1809 01:30:57,160 --> 01:31:02,400 Speaker 1: of undercounting the support that Wilsonari's has here in Brazil, 1810 01:31:02,720 --> 01:31:05,240 Speaker 1: just like we had two straight elections where there was 1811 01:31:05,320 --> 01:31:09,680 Speaker 1: clear undercounting and under support, underpolling of the support for 1812 01:31:09,760 --> 01:31:12,760 Speaker 1: Trump and his voters as well. So something has gone 1813 01:31:12,920 --> 01:31:16,440 Speaker 1: radically wrong in terms of polling analysis and these democracies. 1814 01:31:16,760 --> 01:31:18,840 Speaker 1: Do you have any theory or are there any working 1815 01:31:18,880 --> 01:31:22,280 Speaker 1: theories this morning about what that something is it's going 1816 01:31:22,360 --> 01:31:24,519 Speaker 1: to take? You know, I think a lot of work. 1817 01:31:24,560 --> 01:31:28,840 Speaker 1: I mean, these these firms have no credibility at this point. 1818 01:31:29,040 --> 01:31:31,559 Speaker 1: I mean one theory is is that because there's so 1819 01:31:31,720 --> 01:31:35,960 Speaker 1: much score and against wolscenario and his movement in elite circles, 1820 01:31:36,280 --> 01:31:39,519 Speaker 1: there's kind of an embarrassment factor that perhaps voters are 1821 01:31:39,840 --> 01:31:43,000 Speaker 1: unwilling to express their support for Bulsonnario topolsters, but then 1822 01:31:43,040 --> 01:31:45,200 Speaker 1: go into the voting booth and vote for him and 1823 01:31:45,240 --> 01:31:50,160 Speaker 1: his movement. Anyway, there could be changes technologically in terms 1824 01:31:50,160 --> 01:31:53,599 Speaker 1: of how young people only use the Internet and cell phones, 1825 01:31:53,680 --> 01:31:57,719 Speaker 1: all those sorts of things. But when you're talking about errors, 1826 01:31:57,840 --> 01:32:01,519 Speaker 1: this dramatic now not just once, but in twenty eighteen, 1827 01:32:01,600 --> 01:32:04,400 Speaker 1: very similar errors took place again in favor of the 1828 01:32:04,479 --> 01:32:08,560 Speaker 1: Laft and against the Polsonnari movement. Something has gone fundamentally 1829 01:32:08,600 --> 01:32:11,360 Speaker 1: wrong in polling science and it needs to be addressed immediately, 1830 01:32:11,439 --> 01:32:14,840 Speaker 1: if any they want to preserve any credibility for themselves. Yeah, 1831 01:32:14,840 --> 01:32:16,880 Speaker 1: and Glenn I was actually rereading then essay that he 1832 01:32:16,920 --> 01:32:21,280 Speaker 1: wrote in twenty eighteen about Bolsonaro's original victory about polling errors. 1833 01:32:21,520 --> 01:32:24,599 Speaker 1: At the time, the issues what exactly you know, you know, 1834 01:32:24,640 --> 01:32:28,640 Speaker 1: Trump's almost reelection in twenty twenty really was pressage in 1835 01:32:29,000 --> 01:32:31,719 Speaker 1: what happened in Brazil as well. So in that context, 1836 01:32:31,800 --> 01:32:33,800 Speaker 1: I mean, what lessons do we have, Yeah, like you said, 1837 01:32:33,840 --> 01:32:37,920 Speaker 1: for all democracies about this level of this type of 1838 01:32:37,920 --> 01:32:43,320 Speaker 1: populism and its appeal at the actual democratic level. Yeah, 1839 01:32:43,360 --> 01:32:45,320 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, first of all, one of the 1840 01:32:45,320 --> 01:32:47,760 Speaker 1: things that has happened in Brazil is is something we've 1841 01:32:47,800 --> 01:32:51,280 Speaker 1: seen in many other countries, which is the disappearance of 1842 01:32:51,360 --> 01:32:55,160 Speaker 1: the center right. For twenty years, Brazil was dominated by 1843 01:32:55,160 --> 01:32:57,759 Speaker 1: an election between PT on the one hand, the center 1844 01:32:57,800 --> 01:33:02,720 Speaker 1: right party PSDB on the OTHERESDV barely exists anymore, conservatives 1845 01:33:02,760 --> 01:33:05,880 Speaker 1: and the right is just Bolsonartismo or kind of right 1846 01:33:05,920 --> 01:33:08,600 Speaker 1: wing populism. We've seen that over and over, including in 1847 01:33:08,640 --> 01:33:12,360 Speaker 1: the US increasingly. But I think the real lesson saga 1848 01:33:12,400 --> 01:33:17,240 Speaker 1: is that, you know, everywhere we see neoliberalism thrive and 1849 01:33:17,280 --> 01:33:23,360 Speaker 1: then re kavoc on countries, right wing populism emerges. How 1850 01:33:23,400 --> 01:33:25,920 Speaker 1: many times have we seen that. That's obviously the lesson 1851 01:33:25,960 --> 01:33:28,879 Speaker 1: of the Trump victory in twenty sixteen, But even in Brazil, 1852 01:33:29,240 --> 01:33:32,040 Speaker 1: for all to talk about Lula and the Workers Party 1853 01:33:32,080 --> 01:33:35,760 Speaker 1: being this left wing party, whether it's because they're not 1854 01:33:35,880 --> 01:33:38,679 Speaker 1: really that or because the constraints of the Brazilian system 1855 01:33:38,720 --> 01:33:40,680 Speaker 1: don't let them be, it doesn't really matter. The way 1856 01:33:40,760 --> 01:33:44,479 Speaker 1: they governed was really more neoliberal than traditionally left. This 1857 01:33:46,040 --> 01:33:48,559 Speaker 1: just like the Democratic Party in the US, and in 1858 01:33:48,600 --> 01:33:52,839 Speaker 1: that wreckage arises right wing populism due to growing anger, 1859 01:33:53,120 --> 01:33:58,360 Speaker 1: hateful anger towards the neoliberal establishment. So now my understanding, 1860 01:33:58,600 --> 01:34:01,160 Speaker 1: and I'm certainly not an expert or in Brazilian politics, 1861 01:34:01,160 --> 01:34:04,639 Speaker 1: but my understanding is there was quite significant advances under 1862 01:34:04,720 --> 01:34:08,640 Speaker 1: Lula in terms of lifting people out of poverty. There 1863 01:34:08,680 --> 01:34:10,040 Speaker 1: were a lot of schools that were built, there were 1864 01:34:10,040 --> 01:34:13,160 Speaker 1: a lot of social programs that were genuinely beneficial. Even 1865 01:34:13,200 --> 01:34:15,120 Speaker 1: as you continued to have you know, the rich doing 1866 01:34:15,200 --> 01:34:19,840 Speaker 1: quite well and large levels of inequalities. So, you know, 1867 01:34:19,960 --> 01:34:23,599 Speaker 1: even as obviously Bolsonaro overperformed the polls, he still came 1868 01:34:23,640 --> 01:34:26,360 Speaker 1: in second here. So what was the message from Lula 1869 01:34:26,640 --> 01:34:29,400 Speaker 1: that was appealing in this round? And then what do 1870 01:34:29,439 --> 01:34:32,679 Speaker 1: you expect is going to happen in the next round 1871 01:34:32,760 --> 01:34:34,880 Speaker 1: based on you know, the other candidates that pulled votes 1872 01:34:34,920 --> 01:34:37,519 Speaker 1: and who their voters are likely to go to. Yeah, 1873 01:34:37,560 --> 01:34:40,160 Speaker 1: I mean, so you're absolutely right. But let's remember that 1874 01:34:40,240 --> 01:34:43,280 Speaker 1: Lula has been president of Brazil for twelve years. He 1875 01:34:43,680 --> 01:34:46,439 Speaker 1: was president from two thousand and two until twenty ten, 1876 01:34:46,479 --> 01:34:49,439 Speaker 1: when he was turning momitted out of office. You're absolutely 1877 01:34:49,479 --> 01:34:53,160 Speaker 1: right that not only were there very impressive social programs 1878 01:34:53,200 --> 01:34:56,479 Speaker 1: that even kind of neoliberal centers praised because they weren't 1879 01:34:56,520 --> 01:34:59,320 Speaker 1: just handouts, they were you know, payments to poor people, 1880 01:34:59,320 --> 01:35:01,559 Speaker 1: but in exchange for proof that their kids are going 1881 01:35:01,560 --> 01:35:05,600 Speaker 1: to school and getting vaccinated and performing other social obligations, 1882 01:35:05,600 --> 01:35:07,519 Speaker 1: the kind of things neil liberals like it did help 1883 01:35:07,560 --> 01:35:11,240 Speaker 1: a lot of people. Also, during Lula's two terms, Brazil 1884 01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:15,040 Speaker 1: had massive economic growth. It became the sixth largest economy 1885 01:35:15,040 --> 01:35:17,800 Speaker 1: in the world, ahead of the UK, but you know, 1886 01:35:18,080 --> 01:35:20,680 Speaker 1: it's a long time ago. Once loul was out of 1887 01:35:20,680 --> 01:35:24,120 Speaker 1: office and he was succeeded by dil Marussef, the economy collapse, 1888 01:35:24,200 --> 01:35:27,479 Speaker 1: there were huge corruption scandals, a lot of anti pt 1889 01:35:27,760 --> 01:35:32,120 Speaker 1: sentiment arose. But the reality is Lula won, and let's 1890 01:35:32,120 --> 01:35:34,160 Speaker 1: remember he did win last night in the sense that 1891 01:35:34,200 --> 01:35:38,080 Speaker 1: he got the most votes, primarily because he's just such 1892 01:35:38,080 --> 01:35:42,719 Speaker 1: a gigantic force of personality. There's so much personal affection 1893 01:35:43,320 --> 01:35:47,680 Speaker 1: for Lula in Brazil that does not necessarily translate to 1894 01:35:48,040 --> 01:35:50,640 Speaker 1: other left wing parties, and you can't really, you know, 1895 01:35:50,720 --> 01:35:53,639 Speaker 1: you have to sometimes in politics realize that a lot 1896 01:35:53,640 --> 01:35:56,880 Speaker 1: of it is about force of personality. So that's a 1897 01:35:56,960 --> 01:36:00,000 Speaker 1: huge factor. I would still rate Lula as the favorite 1898 01:36:00,160 --> 01:36:02,200 Speaker 1: to win in this runoff, though I don't think it's 1899 01:36:02,200 --> 01:36:04,040 Speaker 1: going to be easy, as a lot of other people think. 1900 01:36:05,120 --> 01:36:09,639 Speaker 1: But in some sense, Crystal, you're right. But twenty ten 1901 01:36:09,680 --> 01:36:11,439 Speaker 1: when he left was a long time ago. In the 1902 01:36:11,479 --> 01:36:13,760 Speaker 1: next decade was filled with a lot of misery and 1903 01:36:13,800 --> 01:36:16,160 Speaker 1: a lot of suffering. So the other thing that was 1904 01:36:16,160 --> 01:36:19,720 Speaker 1: a concern, Glenn is that Bolsonaro, who made noises in 1905 01:36:19,720 --> 01:36:22,599 Speaker 1: this direction that basically, you know, if if he didn't win. 1906 01:36:22,760 --> 01:36:25,080 Speaker 1: Then the thing was rigged and you had a resolution 1907 01:36:25,120 --> 01:36:26,680 Speaker 1: that was passed by the Senate. Here the US has 1908 01:36:26,720 --> 01:36:31,360 Speaker 1: been very concerned about Bolsonaro basically claiming an illegitimate victory here, 1909 01:36:31,600 --> 01:36:33,360 Speaker 1: and of course the context for that as well, we 1910 01:36:33,439 --> 01:36:35,559 Speaker 1: had a sort of like you know, failed and pathetic 1911 01:36:35,560 --> 01:36:38,519 Speaker 1: who attempt here in the US with Trump and his supporters. 1912 01:36:38,520 --> 01:36:41,240 Speaker 1: There was a legit one in Brazil, you know, that 1913 01:36:41,320 --> 01:36:44,719 Speaker 1: did oust the democratically elected president, which you, of course 1914 01:36:44,720 --> 01:36:49,760 Speaker 1: were integral and ultimately exposing. So were there noises from 1915 01:36:49,760 --> 01:36:52,760 Speaker 1: anyone last night saying this? You know, result was was 1916 01:36:52,800 --> 01:36:55,320 Speaker 1: not fair. Are you concerned about that in the next 1917 01:36:55,400 --> 01:36:59,800 Speaker 1: round as well? I'm not. I have I you know, 1918 01:37:00,479 --> 01:37:04,080 Speaker 1: of course, I think the impact of January sixth, calling 1919 01:37:04,120 --> 01:37:07,920 Speaker 1: it in insurrection or whatever is overstated. I regard it 1920 01:37:07,920 --> 01:37:11,040 Speaker 1: more as a riot than I Actually, I'm not really 1921 01:37:11,120 --> 01:37:13,160 Speaker 1: referring to January six as much as I am like 1922 01:37:13,200 --> 01:37:15,400 Speaker 1: the fake elector schemes and the efforts in the courts 1923 01:37:15,439 --> 01:37:17,439 Speaker 1: to try to overturn the election. But we can leave 1924 01:37:17,439 --> 01:37:20,160 Speaker 1: that debate for another day. There were clearly efforts on 1925 01:37:20,240 --> 01:37:22,920 Speaker 1: Trump's side to try to you know, keep himself in office, 1926 01:37:22,960 --> 01:37:25,800 Speaker 1: and he continues to say, I'm rightfully elected and they 1927 01:37:25,840 --> 01:37:29,360 Speaker 1: should just redo the election, et cetera, et cetera. Sure, Sure, Sure, sure. 1928 01:37:29,400 --> 01:37:32,000 Speaker 1: I was just trying to say that I never saw 1929 01:37:32,439 --> 01:37:35,720 Speaker 1: the kind of post election instability or violence in the 1930 01:37:35,880 --> 01:37:38,960 Speaker 1: US as a major threat, and I don't really see 1931 01:37:39,000 --> 01:37:42,040 Speaker 1: it as a threat in Brazil and to the extent 1932 01:37:42,080 --> 01:37:45,759 Speaker 1: that I did, because I mean, just like with Trump, 1933 01:37:46,120 --> 01:37:48,799 Speaker 1: what I would describe Bolsonaro as being, more than anything 1934 01:37:48,800 --> 01:37:51,120 Speaker 1: else during his first four years in office was a 1935 01:37:51,160 --> 01:37:55,519 Speaker 1: weak president. I think the world in which Bolsonaro gets 1936 01:37:55,600 --> 01:37:58,719 Speaker 1: everything that he wants is a very dark and alarming world. 1937 01:37:59,080 --> 01:38:02,120 Speaker 1: The reality is Brazilian institutions. And there was an article 1938 01:38:02,120 --> 01:38:04,840 Speaker 1: in The New York Times just a week ago that 1939 01:38:05,000 --> 01:38:07,559 Speaker 1: examined whether or not the Brazilian Supreme Court has become 1940 01:38:07,600 --> 01:38:11,000 Speaker 1: authoritarian in its efforts to kind of limit and stop 1941 01:38:11,080 --> 01:38:14,080 Speaker 1: the Bolsonari movement. He's really been checked and limited in 1942 01:38:14,080 --> 01:38:15,720 Speaker 1: lots of ways. I don't think he'd have a lot 1943 01:38:15,760 --> 01:38:19,320 Speaker 1: of institutional support in the military, for example, for doing 1944 01:38:19,400 --> 01:38:21,280 Speaker 1: this sort of thing that would be necessary to threaten 1945 01:38:21,360 --> 01:38:24,400 Speaker 1: the election. But the real point, Crystal is, even though 1946 01:38:24,439 --> 01:38:28,439 Speaker 1: Bolsonaro came in second last night, the big winner last 1947 01:38:28,520 --> 01:38:33,000 Speaker 1: night's election was Bolsonarismo. I mean, his party is now 1948 01:38:33,080 --> 01:38:35,639 Speaker 1: going to be the largest party in both the Senate 1949 01:38:35,760 --> 01:38:39,519 Speaker 1: and the House. His ally won the governorship of Rio 1950 01:38:39,600 --> 01:38:42,000 Speaker 1: Jijenio and is now the favorite to win the governorship 1951 01:38:42,000 --> 01:38:45,160 Speaker 1: of Sempaulo, the two largest and most important states in Brazil. 1952 01:38:45,560 --> 01:38:49,640 Speaker 1: So even if Lula ultimately wins in this runoff, Bolsonarismo 1953 01:38:49,720 --> 01:38:52,839 Speaker 1: in Brazil is not going anywhere. It remains very strong 1954 01:38:53,160 --> 01:38:56,560 Speaker 1: and I think that has definitely lessened the likelihood that 1955 01:38:56,680 --> 01:38:58,479 Speaker 1: Bobo are going to go out into the streets and 1956 01:38:59,479 --> 01:39:01,519 Speaker 1: create a lot of violence and instability. And the event 1957 01:39:01,560 --> 01:39:04,439 Speaker 1: the Boltsonaro loses to Lula makes a lot of sense. Glenn, 1958 01:39:04,439 --> 01:39:05,880 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us and for breaking 1959 01:39:05,920 --> 01:39:08,040 Speaker 1: it down. It's just so so helpful and a lot 1960 01:39:08,120 --> 01:39:09,920 Speaker 1: of parallels that we can draw for our own countries. 1961 01:39:09,960 --> 01:39:11,880 Speaker 1: So thanks very much. Appreciate it. Yeah, great to be 1962 01:39:11,960 --> 01:39:14,760 Speaker 1: with you guys, vout your covering those Thanks absolutely. Thank 1963 01:39:14,800 --> 01:39:16,600 Speaker 1: you guys so much for watching. We really appreciate it. 1964 01:39:16,720 --> 01:39:19,240 Speaker 1: We've got the live show happening in Chicago. It's coming soon. 1965 01:39:19,360 --> 01:39:21,400 Speaker 1: It's going to be a lot of a lot of fun. 1966 01:39:21,400 --> 01:39:24,040 Speaker 1: We're planning some very special audience stuff, so you're going 1967 01:39:24,080 --> 01:39:25,960 Speaker 1: to want to be there in the audience. Tickets are 1968 01:39:25,960 --> 01:39:27,760 Speaker 1: down there in the description we've got the live show. 1969 01:39:27,960 --> 01:39:31,040 Speaker 1: Are the Counterpoints discount going on right now ten percent 1970 01:39:31,120 --> 01:39:33,400 Speaker 1: off for our annual members to support our work. And 1971 01:39:33,479 --> 01:39:35,960 Speaker 1: you've got a little taste of why exactly it's so 1972 01:39:36,000 --> 01:39:39,439 Speaker 1: important to be independent with the Counterpoints interview with Katie Helper. 1973 01:39:39,640 --> 01:39:41,599 Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to lean too hard into 1974 01:39:41,600 --> 01:39:44,080 Speaker 1: the like that, but listen, that's what it's like when 1975 01:39:44,120 --> 01:39:45,840 Speaker 1: you work for somebody else. It's like, at the end 1976 01:39:45,840 --> 01:39:47,639 Speaker 1: of the day, the only people we work for are 1977 01:39:47,640 --> 01:39:49,800 Speaker 1: our audience, and we don't really care. You know. It 1978 01:39:49,840 --> 01:39:52,240 Speaker 1: was actually very nice Rogan and Dave Smith. Shout out 1979 01:39:52,240 --> 01:39:55,679 Speaker 1: to Dave Smith as well. They both said something about 1980 01:39:55,760 --> 01:39:58,040 Speaker 1: us on their show which was extremely kind, and they're like, look, 1981 01:39:58,080 --> 01:39:59,760 Speaker 1: you know, you may not agree, but they're not lying 1982 01:39:59,800 --> 01:40:02,320 Speaker 1: to you. And you know, He's like, you could just tell, 1983 01:40:02,400 --> 01:40:04,479 Speaker 1: like they're telling you what they really think. And I 1984 01:40:04,520 --> 01:40:07,200 Speaker 1: do want to emphasize like that is everything we say 1985 01:40:07,520 --> 01:40:10,559 Speaker 1: straight from my mouth, your mouth, it's what we actually think, 1986 01:40:10,880 --> 01:40:13,200 Speaker 1: working it out in real time with everybody, and I 1987 01:40:13,200 --> 01:40:15,680 Speaker 1: think we're all learning together. So thank you all so 1988 01:40:15,760 --> 01:40:17,639 Speaker 1: much for just supporting that I think is very helpful 1989 01:40:17,680 --> 01:40:19,040 Speaker 1: to a lot of people. We put a lot of 1990 01:40:19,040 --> 01:40:21,840 Speaker 1: thought before we launched into how we could avoid both 1991 01:40:22,000 --> 01:40:24,680 Speaker 1: the obviously the perils of like corporate media and like 1992 01:40:24,720 --> 01:40:27,120 Speaker 1: the corporate at that was a no brainer, but also, 1993 01:40:27,160 --> 01:40:30,200 Speaker 1: you see, independent media can suffer sometimes from audience capture, 1994 01:40:30,880 --> 01:40:32,879 Speaker 1: and so we put a lot of thought into avoid 1995 01:40:33,000 --> 01:40:35,800 Speaker 1: any of those sort of influences that can really, you know, 1996 01:40:35,920 --> 01:40:37,960 Speaker 1: drag you in what direction and lead you to it, 1997 01:40:37,960 --> 01:40:41,479 Speaker 1: because I mean, I think some of these commentators, it's 1998 01:40:41,479 --> 01:40:43,360 Speaker 1: not even that they don't believe what they're saying, it's 1999 01:40:43,400 --> 01:40:45,799 Speaker 1: just that, you know, people, if you have an incentive 2000 01:40:45,880 --> 01:40:48,200 Speaker 1: to say a certain thing, it's very easy to like 2001 01:40:48,240 --> 01:40:51,320 Speaker 1: fool yourself and convince yourself, but that's what you actually think. 2002 01:40:51,400 --> 01:40:54,160 Speaker 1: So in any case, I think that's exactly correct. We 2003 01:40:54,240 --> 01:40:56,240 Speaker 1: really are telling you what we think, even when we 2004 01:40:56,280 --> 01:40:58,200 Speaker 1: get it wrong. We try to acknowledge when we get 2005 01:40:58,200 --> 01:41:00,839 Speaker 1: it wrong, and you know, try to create a buffer 2006 01:41:00,880 --> 01:41:03,639 Speaker 1: around us and even just having the left right perspective 2007 01:41:03,640 --> 01:41:06,479 Speaker 1: in one show create somewhat of a check on either 2008 01:41:06,520 --> 01:41:09,200 Speaker 1: one of us, like getting out over our skis, So 2009 01:41:09,400 --> 01:41:11,439 Speaker 1: if I get something wrong, it's because I got it wrong, 2010 01:41:12,120 --> 01:41:15,920 Speaker 1: which is I like it that way. Yeah, So anyway, guys, 2011 01:41:16,040 --> 01:41:18,160 Speaker 1: we love you, we're grateful for you, thank you for 2012 01:41:18,160 --> 01:41:20,200 Speaker 1: making this possible, and we'll see you back here tomorrow. 2013 01:41:20,280 --> 01:41:20,719 Speaker 1: Tomorrow