WEBVTT - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon Talks Middle East Conflict

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<v Speaker 1>It's turned out to one of our top interviews this

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<v Speaker 1>morning from Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative sum Much. Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>has been speaking to CEO of Gold and Sachs David Solomon.

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<v Speaker 1>Our Horizons Middle East Africa anchor Jimani Bressacci has been

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<v Speaker 1>speaking to him. Here is the exclusive interview in full,

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<v Speaker 1>starting with David Solomon's thoughts on Saudi Arabia as an

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<v Speaker 1>investment destination.

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<v Speaker 2>We are excited to be opening up a new office

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<v Speaker 2>in the financial district, and I would say we are

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<v Speaker 2>committed to our presence here in Saudi Arabia. I was reflecting,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, last night, around the past eight years, seven

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<v Speaker 2>or eight years that I've been coming to this event

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<v Speaker 2>and just watching the progress, you know, and the progress

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<v Speaker 2>has been meaningful, and we've participated in that progress. It's

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<v Speaker 2>interested in what your clients here on the ground participate

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<v Speaker 2>in that progress and be in a position.

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<v Speaker 3>To try to help them. But also as you look

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<v Speaker 3>at the international community.

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<v Speaker 2>The international community is more interested in what's going on

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<v Speaker 2>from an economic development perspective here, and we're delighted to

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<v Speaker 2>be positioned to help our clients in this region.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and it feels like there is so much deal

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<v Speaker 4>making even IPOs. Last year it was a great year

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<v Speaker 4>in terms of activity across all these exchanges, which means

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<v Speaker 4>also more and where banks are looking to get involved

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<v Speaker 4>in the action. Are you finding it difficult to retain

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<v Speaker 4>and attract talent given increasing amount of competition.

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<v Speaker 2>We have a very very deep bench of bankers around

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<v Speaker 2>the globe, including here in the region. We have a

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<v Speaker 2>number of bankers from the region, the base out of

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<v Speaker 2>London and sometimes move back to this region.

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<v Speaker 3>We've been able to attract talent. We're Golden Sachs.

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<v Speaker 2>We've been able to attract talent here in this region all.

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<v Speaker 3>Other places in the world.

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<v Speaker 2>I do agree there's more competition here, but that's positive

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<v Speaker 2>and actually the levels of activity are picking up and

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<v Speaker 2>I feel very very confident and our ability to have

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<v Speaker 2>really extraordinary people on the ground here to serve our

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<v Speaker 2>clients very well.

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<v Speaker 4>One of the stories that our Bloomberg News team have

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<v Speaker 4>you been reporting on is the fact that the PIF

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<v Speaker 4>have been sort of refocusing some of their investment efforts

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<v Speaker 4>at domestically, which means that in terms of the relationship

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<v Speaker 4>with asset managers in the region, there's been a lot

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<v Speaker 4>more focus on or questions asked about what some of

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<v Speaker 4>these asset managers are delivering on the ground within Saudi Arabia.

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<v Speaker 4>How do you think that is going to shape up

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<v Speaker 4>the asset management's ambitions within the region and specifically with

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<v Speaker 4>those lives.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a very very natural progress.

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<v Speaker 2>And we've been talking about what's going on here in

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<v Speaker 2>the kingdom, but the level of investment in diversifying the

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<v Speaker 2>economy here in the kingdom is significant, and of course

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<v Speaker 2>that's a significant focus of the PIF.

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<v Speaker 3>For a firm like.

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<v Speaker 2>Golden Sachs, where we're well positioned to serve as an

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<v Speaker 2>investment banker, to serve as a trader, to serve as

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<v Speaker 2>an asset and wealth manager, I think the firm is

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<v Speaker 2>incredibly well positioned to help in this part of the world,

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<v Speaker 2>regardless of the trajectory.

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<v Speaker 3>So we're excited about what's going on here.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm excited about the opportunities we'll have to help serve

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<v Speaker 2>our clients here.

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<v Speaker 4>I can I ask you what your level of concern

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<v Speaker 4>is vias to be the geopolitical situation in the region

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<v Speaker 4>right now.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm concerned about the geopolitical situation in the region. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not good for security. It's not good for safety, it's

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<v Speaker 2>not good for economic growth. And I'm hopeful that leaders

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<v Speaker 2>both in the region and around the world, and important

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<v Speaker 2>governments around the world will be able to find a

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<v Speaker 2>path to settle.

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<v Speaker 3>It down as we move forward.

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<v Speaker 2>But of course, anytime you have geopotocon certainty, that's not

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<v Speaker 2>good for economic growth and prosperity.

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<v Speaker 3>And one of the things I just noticed i spend.

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<v Speaker 2>Time with people here on the ground, people want to

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<v Speaker 2>find a path to a secure, prosperous, economically vibrant in

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<v Speaker 2>Middle least.

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<v Speaker 4>Has it impacted business trading.

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<v Speaker 3>In the region, You know, it's interesting.

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<v Speaker 2>People are obviously concerned and very very focused, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>not had a significant impact on activity up to this point,

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<v Speaker 2>on activity in this part of the region.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, well, let's just stop. More broadly, your earnings came

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<v Speaker 4>out very strong, sur fascinating expectations. Obviously the stock has

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<v Speaker 4>had a good run this year. You must be feeling good.

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<v Speaker 4>But let me just ask you how you're feeling about

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<v Speaker 4>the outlook in general.

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<v Speaker 3>I feel good about the outlook.

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<v Speaker 2>I think you know, if you took a tour around

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<v Speaker 2>the world, the US economy is actually doing quite well.

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<v Speaker 3>It's been very, very resilient.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm a little bit more concerned about European growth and

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<v Speaker 2>also the economic situation in China, but overall, the engine

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<v Speaker 2>of the US has been quite powerful, and our building

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<v Speaker 2>our business while.

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<v Speaker 3>Global, is quite correlated to US growth. I can give

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<v Speaker 3>you a.

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<v Speaker 2>List of things to worry about, but generally I can

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<v Speaker 2>tell you also a list of things that I'm quite

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<v Speaker 2>optimistic about. The progress around technology and AI and the

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<v Speaker 2>opportunities to increase productivity, or real progress that we're seeing

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<v Speaker 2>around healthcare and medical technology or extraordinary and the impact

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<v Speaker 2>that they'll have.

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<v Speaker 3>So there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about.

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<v Speaker 2>The growth and trajectory of economies around the world, but

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<v Speaker 2>there's also fragility and things can go wrong.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I was going to pick up on that because

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<v Speaker 4>it's been really difficult to sort of track the narrative

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<v Speaker 4>around the US economy the last few months, because we've

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<v Speaker 4>gone from hard landing to soft lanning. Now people are

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<v Speaker 4>talking about no lanning. I'm not going to ask you

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<v Speaker 4>for a descriptor of the US economy, but what I

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<v Speaker 4>will ask you is, where are some areas of concern

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<v Speaker 4>that you're seeing?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the base case in the US is certainly at

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<v Speaker 2>this point for a soft landing. That doesn't mean that

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<v Speaker 2>at some point there can't be, you know, some sort

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<v Speaker 2>of a slow down in economic growth. But what I

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<v Speaker 2>would say is the US economy is proving to.

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<v Speaker 3>Be incredibly resilient.

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<v Speaker 2>We do have an election in the US and there'll

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<v Speaker 2>be policy decisions that come out of that election, and

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<v Speaker 2>so you know, certainly those will have an impact on

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<v Speaker 2>the trajectory in twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 2>With respect to you know, European growth, European growth is

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<v Speaker 2>more sluggish at the moment. And I'm concerned about the

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<v Speaker 2>same thing that many people I know are talking to

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<v Speaker 2>you about at this event, geopolitics US China relationship, the

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<v Speaker 2>situation in Ukraine, the situation we just touched on in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East. Also concerned, you know, broadly about inflation

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<v Speaker 2>in the world. Concerned about energy policy, which is obviously

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<v Speaker 2>a significant issue. I'm concerned about immigration and migration which

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<v Speaker 2>is an issue in different parts of the world. So

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<v Speaker 2>these are all issues that require leadership and policy direction.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm hopeful as we get past the election in

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<v Speaker 2>the US and we continue to move forward we'll see

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<v Speaker 2>a clear direction of travel on some of these significant

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<v Speaker 2>policy issues.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I mean, the other big development is obviously the

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<v Speaker 4>said have started cutting interest rates. And I think you

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<v Speaker 4>were asked about what your expectations were for the said

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<v Speaker 4>the last I already said a thirty percent chance of

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<v Speaker 4>a fifty basis one cut. So we'll give you that

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<v Speaker 4>they went for the fifty. But what matter is more,

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<v Speaker 4>as you think for financial markets, how quickly they go

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<v Speaker 4>or where they end up.

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<v Speaker 2>I mentioned I think there's an awful lot of attention

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<v Speaker 2>on short term rates. I'd actually be focused over time

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<v Speaker 2>on longer term rates. And you know, you know, I

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<v Speaker 2>continue to be concerned about the level of spending and

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<v Speaker 2>deficits in the United States. I don't think that's a

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<v Speaker 2>short term, you know, crisis factor. But unless we have

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<v Speaker 2>policy change and get our spending and our debt under control,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, ultimately that's kind of a bigger impact on

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<v Speaker 2>long term rates. And I think people are anticipating today

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<v Speaker 2>with respect to the short end of the curve. I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's going to be very data dependent, and that

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<v Speaker 2>data will be driven in part by what kind of

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<v Speaker 2>policy we see coming out of the Yeah, and so

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's important to watch carefully. It seems like

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<v Speaker 2>the FED has been relatively transparent that we'll get another

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<v Speaker 2>interest rate cut before the end of the year, But

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<v Speaker 2>after that, I think it will be very data dependent

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<v Speaker 2>on what kind of policy implementation. What happens to growth.

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<v Speaker 2>Are the inflation numbers actually improving further?

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<v Speaker 4>You know?

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<v Speaker 2>Those are all things I think the FED will be

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<v Speaker 2>watching carefully.

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<v Speaker 4>Can I just circle back to your first point vis

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<v Speaker 4>a vis spending, the send your treasuries trading around four

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<v Speaker 4>point three percent, so you think that is ad and

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<v Speaker 4>put the pricing in the fiscal premium in the years

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<v Speaker 4>to come to us.

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<v Speaker 2>The market's the market, and so it is absolutely pricing

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<v Speaker 2>in the premium that the market perceives today. What I

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<v Speaker 2>would just say, if you look at the trajectory of

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<v Speaker 2>our spending and our debt and the interest burden that

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<v Speaker 2>we have, I think over time and over time is

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<v Speaker 2>through the rest of the decade, et cetera, we'll have

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<v Speaker 2>to bring new buyers into US treasuries and that will

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<v Speaker 2>potentially have a risk of putting pressure on longer rates

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<v Speaker 2>unless we want to finance the whole treasury stack at

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<v Speaker 2>the front under the curve which will be a very

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<v Speaker 2>very significant policy shift.

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<v Speaker 4>I want to ask to you a little bit more

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<v Speaker 4>about your trading numbers, since they came in stronger than expectations,

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<v Speaker 4>and earlier on you had guided that fixed income trading

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<v Speaker 4>was gonnessee to clients, but overall for the quarter, you

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<v Speaker 4>ended up posting quite strong trading results, namely on the

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<v Speaker 4>back of your equity trading business. Was this sort of

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<v Speaker 4>a one off because there was so much volatility and

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<v Speaker 4>equities this quarter or can we expect that momentum to

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<v Speaker 4>continue more?

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<v Speaker 2>Equity franchise is performing very very well. We have the

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<v Speaker 2>leading equity franchise of the big banks. It's something we've

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<v Speaker 2>invested in, it built over a long period of time.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't tell you quarter to quarter what the market

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<v Speaker 2>environment will put up for that franchise, but we were

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<v Speaker 2>our positioned very well to serve our clients and have

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<v Speaker 2>a leading share position in that business. When I commented

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<v Speaker 2>about our trading revenues in early September, at the very

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<v Speaker 2>beginning of September at a conference in New York, the

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<v Speaker 2>business was softer.

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<v Speaker 3>It had been softer in August, particularly in fixed income.

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<v Speaker 2>We had a very very strong comp from the third

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<v Speaker 2>quarter in twenty two three, and ultimately our fixed income

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<v Speaker 2>business was softer.

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<v Speaker 3>Year over year.

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<v Speaker 2>But I did say when I made that comment that

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<v Speaker 2>it would be very very dependent on what happened in September,

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<v Speaker 2>and we actually had a more robust September than we expected.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, well, Marcus said, do you think you can continue

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<v Speaker 4>to gain market share of the trade inside?

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<v Speaker 2>We do believe there are opportunities for us to continue

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<v Speaker 2>to take share, although we're operating in a leading share position,

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<v Speaker 2>so those gains will not be as pronounced as they've

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<v Speaker 2>been over the last five years. But we think we

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<v Speaker 2>have a very very powerful ecosystem in our global Banking

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<v Speaker 2>and Markets franchise. Our one GS operating ethos is helping

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<v Speaker 2>us serve our clients in a very very you know,

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<v Speaker 2>forward and exceptional way. And if you are patient, you

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<v Speaker 2>take a long term view, you earn trust, you show

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<v Speaker 2>up for your clients, and good times and bad over time,

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<v Speaker 2>you gain share in these businesses and more.

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<v Speaker 3>Very focused on the.

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<v Speaker 4>Outlooks like right now for deal making, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Look for deal makings improving. You know, I talked, I

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<v Speaker 3>talked on earnings on our earnings call about the fact

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<v Speaker 3>that our m and a backlog had improved.

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<v Speaker 2>I talked about some headwins, particularly on the regulatory side.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the regulatory environment has been a headwind to

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<v Speaker 2>some deal making. Obviously, with an election, we could see

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<v Speaker 2>a change in that context. But there's no question the

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<v Speaker 2>deal making environment is improving. And when you look at

0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:20.960
<v Speaker 2>what's going on with technology and the investment that's necessary

0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:24.199
<v Speaker 2>to power AI, I think that's a tailwind for deal

0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:26.600
<v Speaker 2>making over a period of time too. A lot of change,

0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:29.960
<v Speaker 2>a lot of opportunity, and when there's change, leaders are

0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:33.760
<v Speaker 2>constantly looking to make sure that their positions strategically to

0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:34.839
<v Speaker 2>have a leadership position.

0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:36.480
<v Speaker 3>As the world of olfs well, I.

0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:38.400
<v Speaker 4>Know you've also been making a big push into your

0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:42.360
<v Speaker 4>alternatives business. Private credits is an area of focus. What

0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.080
<v Speaker 4>is the opportunity that you see there, because it really

0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:47.959
<v Speaker 4>feels like that has become the major focus of the market.

0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:49.920
<v Speaker 4>Many many of different players are looking to get.

0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:50.199
<v Speaker 3>Involved in that.

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<v Speaker 2>But we've been in the private credit business for over

0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:54.960
<v Speaker 2>thirty years. We have one hundred and forty billion dollars

0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.120
<v Speaker 2>in private credit assets. We've been a leading private credit

0:10:57.200 --> 0:11:01.559
<v Speaker 2>player since the nineteen nineties. What I would say is

0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:05.960
<v Speaker 2>there continues to be secular growth around the opportunity set

0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:10.160
<v Speaker 2>for additional private credit formation, and we're very very well

0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.280
<v Speaker 2>positioned given way the firm sits to be a very

0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:16.560
<v Speaker 2>very unique player in that. Obviously, in our asset management business,

0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:20.400
<v Speaker 2>we manage significant private credit assets, but we also have

0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:23.080
<v Speaker 2>one of the leading syndication franchises. We have an ability

0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:26.240
<v Speaker 2>to originate and distribute in addition to be an.

0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:29.200
<v Speaker 3>Investor through asset management business. That's a very unique combination.

0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:31.839
<v Speaker 2>I think it positions our firm very well, and you

0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:35.199
<v Speaker 2>will see, in my opinion, continued secular growth in private

0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:37.960
<v Speaker 2>credit formation. I still think we're early on that cycle.

0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.360
<v Speaker 4>What do you think lower interest rates do for the

0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:41.760
<v Speaker 4>private credit landscape?

0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.960
<v Speaker 2>Though give so much of the I think that private

0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:48.720
<v Speaker 2>credit it's not immune to lower interest rates, but there

0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:53.400
<v Speaker 2>are different ways that we can finance activity, and private

0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:55.280
<v Speaker 2>credit is a very important part of that. People use

0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:57.520
<v Speaker 2>private credit as a very very broad term. Are we

0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:01.439
<v Speaker 2>talking about insurance companies financing investment grade companies? We're talking

0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:04.400
<v Speaker 2>about investment grade financing. Are we talking about below investment

0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:08.119
<v Speaker 2>grade corporate financing? Are we talking about direct lending to small.

0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:09.240
<v Speaker 3>And medium sized enterprises?

0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:12.640
<v Speaker 2>These are all different forms of private credit and the

0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:14.800
<v Speaker 2>reality of it is regardless of what the interest rate

0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:18.040
<v Speaker 2>environment is, people need to finance, and so of course

0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.679
<v Speaker 2>in the short term movements and interest rates have an

0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:23.839
<v Speaker 2>impact in short term activity, but we're talking about the

0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:27.600
<v Speaker 2>engines of finance that drive capital structure in a whole

0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:28.439
<v Speaker 2>variety of ways.

0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.200
<v Speaker 3>This is not something that's cyclically tied to short term interstry.

0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:33.960
<v Speaker 4>Can I just in an updates on how you see

0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:37.199
<v Speaker 4>newer consumer finance business and the pathway ahead from Gorman.

0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.480
<v Speaker 2>We've been very clear over the last few years that

0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:42.840
<v Speaker 2>we're narrowing our consumer focus and we've taken active steps

0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.439
<v Speaker 2>to do that. We continue to have a very very

0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:49.160
<v Speaker 2>powerful deposit platform under markets, but we continue to take

0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:51.800
<v Speaker 2>steps to narrow our consumer activity. We're focused on our

0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:54.079
<v Speaker 2>two big businesses, global banking and markets and asset and

0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.520
<v Speaker 2>wealth management, and we feel good about the way we're positioned.

0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:59.199
<v Speaker 4>Well. We've been speaking for I guess like fifteen minutes

0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:01.600
<v Speaker 4>and I still haven't up the big US election coming

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.760
<v Speaker 4>off next week. Let me just ask you this, because

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:06.959
<v Speaker 4>as a bank, I'm sure you would have run scenario

0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:10.160
<v Speaker 4>analysis on what will happen either way. What would you

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 4>say is the biggest risk for your business for either outcome,

0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:16.079
<v Speaker 4>a Harris win or a Trump win.

0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.160
<v Speaker 2>We're watching the election like everybody else. The good news

0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.719
<v Speaker 2>is it's coming up, you know, next week, and you know,

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:23.840
<v Speaker 2>my hope would be, you know, shortly after election night

0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 2>we have a clear direction of travel in terms of

0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 2>what the next administration will be. Goldman Sachs is set

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.920
<v Speaker 2>up in position to help and support either administration either outcome,

0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:36.280
<v Speaker 2>and to support our clients at.

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:39.079
<v Speaker 3>Either of those outcomes. And so we're watching like everybody else.

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.000
<v Speaker 2>It's going to be a close election and we'll see

0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:42.520
<v Speaker 2>in the next couple of weeks what the direction of

0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:43.000
<v Speaker 2>travel is.

0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:44.719
<v Speaker 4>Do you think it might have a knock on it

0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:47.439
<v Speaker 4>knock on effect on a regulation and some of the

0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:48.719
<v Speaker 4>regulatory stunts.

0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.839
<v Speaker 2>That's taken there is There's there's no question that the

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 2>regulatory pendulum has swung, you know, pretty significantly over the

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 2>last few years. And my hope would be an either

0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:00.200
<v Speaker 2>administration there'll be a fresh look at how we can

0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:03.559
<v Speaker 2>ensure regulations important to keep guardrails in the economy and

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:06.319
<v Speaker 2>to keep our economy moving in an appropriate way. But

0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:08.400
<v Speaker 2>at the same point, that pendulum can swing too far

0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 2>and then it can become a headwind to growth, and

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm hopeful, you know, on both sides of the aisle,

0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:14.760
<v Speaker 2>there'll be a fresh look after the election to make

0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 2>sure we get that balance correct.

0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.880
<v Speaker 1>So that was the CEO of Goldman Sachs David Solomon

0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 1>there speaking to Bloomberg's Jumana Barsacchi at the Future Investment

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.440
<v Speaker 1>Initiative summit in Saudi Arabia.