1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app Joining us. 11 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: Now as you just talk de equities, we talked about 12 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: snow and yield, Stephen Major joins his global head of 13 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 2: fixed income research at HSBC. Mister Major appears with us 14 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: because we will not discuss west Ham season and me 15 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 2: it's the only it's the. 16 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 3: Only reason he would come out. 17 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 2: Steve Major, you have been, You've been the bastion and 18 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 2: Steve Major of saying, yeah, yields are going to go higher, 19 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 2: but then they're going to work their way back down. 20 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 2: Is that trend in place yet where yields are going 21 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 2: to come down from the recent eyes and particularly the 22 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:20,960 Speaker 2: real yield recent high. 23 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we're seeing maybe the third or fourth 24 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 4: peak in yields in the last couple of years. I mean, 25 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 4: I've just written about this. It looks like a triple top. 26 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 4: So any investor who bought in the last couple of 27 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 4: years has been disappointed unless they were lucky on their timing. Really, so, 28 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 4: I just think back in January this year, people were 29 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,559 Speaker 4: reluctant to go into fixed income because of the strong 30 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 4: rally we had from October through December. But now you've 31 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 4: got a chance to go again. So those that missed 32 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 4: out the last few months, they got a chance to buy. 33 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 4: I would challenge the mainstream narrative that inflation is a 34 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 4: problem because I think the main exploration for the rising 35 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 4: yields is actually down to growth. It's down to things 36 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 4: that people didn't forecast, like population increases, fiscal large yes, 37 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 4: that kind of thing. So I suspect the setup is 38 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 4: quite fragile for growth going forward, and therefore there's potential 39 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 4: for yields to fall quite a lot. I mean, if 40 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 4: you want to look at it through the prism of 41 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 4: what's priced in to the FED rate outlook, as you know, 42 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 4: only a few months ago we were all talking about 43 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 4: six or seven cuts. Now it's gone down to one 44 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 4: or two. That's just how the market works. The forward 45 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 4: rate is not a forecast. It can move a long 46 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 4: way away from the center of gravity. So I suspect 47 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 4: the probability of rate hikes is much less than the 48 00:02:56,280 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 4: probability of rate cuts. Therefore, there is an that's symmetry 49 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 4: in the setup. So if you enter ten year treasuries today, 50 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 4: if yields go up one hundred basis points, you lose 51 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 4: a couple of percent. If they go down one hundred 52 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 4: basis points, you make out big time. So I think 53 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 4: that's what matters. You are now paid to go into 54 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 4: fixed income. 55 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 5: So Stephen, I guess the question for a lot of 56 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 5: folks is you know how much duration do I take? 57 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,399 Speaker 5: I mean, we can park somebody in a two year 58 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 5: treasure and get down near five percent. There is that 59 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 5: the trade? Or I want to go out a little longer. 60 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 4: Well, yeah, two year is the safe trade, And I 61 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 4: imagine some people it depends who you are. So I 62 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 4: can understand why a retail investor would extend from owning 63 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 4: bills to twos right here. 64 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: But. 65 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 4: There's also this idea that you need to take account 66 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 4: of the opportunity cost. So the danger with owning twos 67 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 4: is that you're going to regret it in two years 68 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 4: time when they mature. What you need is tens or longer. 69 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 4: So I've been recommending people go into the belly. I 70 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 4: think duration is a much underrated concept here. Obviously I'm 71 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 4: wrong if equities keep going up every week, and I'm 72 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 4: wrong if the FED hikes again. But I'm just thinking 73 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 4: about the balance of risks over the rest of the year, 74 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 4: and I reckon yields go down. 75 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 2: Stephen, you're in Hong Kong and you've got a real 76 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:33,919 Speaker 2: perception about the Pacific rim. I'm going to start with 77 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 2: the generalization that China is buying gold. Are they buying 78 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: less of our bills notes in bonds? 79 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 4: Well, it's publicly available information. You can see the numbers 80 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 4: for March that have just been released. So they have 81 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 4: been reducing their holdings of dollar product so that they 82 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 4: might have less treasuries, but they might have more of 83 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 4: something else. I think it's it's again public clear information 84 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 4: that the gold holdings have gone up in the private 85 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 4: and public sector. What's interesting, though, is the entirety of 86 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 4: the data. When you look at who owns the treasuries, 87 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 4: about thirty percent are held overseas, and that number isn't 88 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 4: going down. So for every foreign investor that's been reducing 89 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 4: their holdings, there's someone else who's picking some bonds up. 90 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 4: That has to be the case. So look at the 91 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 4: European investors. For example, what Japan's doing is quite interesting 92 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 4: because perhaps the official sector could be selling some dollars 93 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 4: soon given the FX moves. But I think net net, 94 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 4: the overseas holdings are fairly steady. 95 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 5: Tom stephen As, I think bout HSBC. I think complete 96 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:50,359 Speaker 5: global view. Where in a fixed income world do you 97 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 5: see the best opportunities here? Is it the US ors? 98 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:57,720 Speaker 4: At other parts of the world, Well, I like emerging 99 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 4: market sovereigns, and so we've been thinking about an interesting 100 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 4: comparison between US high yield corporates and high yield emerging 101 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 4: market sovereigns. Now in that group they'll be Egypt, Turkey, Omahan. 102 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 3: For example. 103 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 4: But you can get dollar denominated em sovereigns with a 104 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 4: really decent yield right now. So I think they compare 105 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 4: quite nicely to corporate high yield. And I think globally, 106 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 4: I would would look at duration as being quite attractive 107 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 4: in Europe as well as the US. In fact, in 108 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 4: fact the last three months we've favored taking more duration 109 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 4: exposure in Europe than the US, and that's because we 110 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 4: think the ECB and or the Bank of England are 111 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 4: going to cut before the FED. But I think that's 112 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 4: becoming a bit of a consensus view. It wasn't at 113 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 4: the start of the year. But it doesn't make it wrong. 114 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 4: I think Europe cuts first. 115 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 2: Steve just a minute left, what's a normal ten year 116 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 2: real yield in the United States? 117 00:06:58,720 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 3: We're at two points. 118 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 4: Well, it should reflect yeah, it should reflect the trend 119 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 4: GDP over time. So if you can get too you're 120 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 4: above what the what the FED is forecasted as longer 121 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 4: run TRENDEDYP. 122 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 3: So you should be okay. 123 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 4: If you want to compare the real yield to the 124 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 4: longer run neutral rate or all Star or what have you. 125 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 4: I still think you've got enough yield in the So 126 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 4: the market yield is one hundred and fifty to two 127 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 4: hundred above the Feds are start. The market yield is 128 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 4: above the trend GDP, so so take your pick. There's enough. 129 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 4: There's enough yield there right. 130 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 3: Steve Major, thank you so much. Will they just be seen? 131 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 2: And there's something when you have to come in and 132 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 2: fill very large shoes. 133 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 3: It's good to Redica. 134 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 2: It was iconic at Morgan Stanley. He was such a voice, 135 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 2: particularly with all the turmoil of Europe and Brexit and 136 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 2: all that. And to come in and try to fix 137 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:12,239 Speaker 2: and replace Anskun to Rediker is a tough test. James 138 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 2: Lord joins US now had a foreign exchange and emergency 139 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 2: market strategy. It Morgan Stanley, you haven't advantaged, James Lord. 140 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 2: You have Robbie Feldman in Tokyo Dovetail, your foreign exchange 141 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 2: work with truly the number one English speaking expert on Japan, 142 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 2: doctor Feldman of MIT in Tokyo Dovetail. Robbie Feldman and 143 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 2: you together. 144 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 3: An Yen Well. 145 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 6: I mean you've just mentioned two of my heroes at 146 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 6: Morgan Stanley, my former boss Andretica, who was all over 147 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 6: the Dolly n trade when Abanomics first started in twenty thirteen, 148 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 6: and Robbie Feldman, who is just absolutely fantastic on all 149 00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 6: things Japan. 150 00:08:58,000 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 3: Obviously. 151 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 7: I mean, I think has happened really. 152 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 6: With the end this morning is that there are it 153 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 6: looks as though the Ministry of Finance has has intervened. 154 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 7: We don't know for sure, there's been no official confirmation. 155 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 6: Of it, but given the volatility that we saw on 156 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 6: Friday and then move in dolly En this morning, I mean, 157 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 6: it certainly seems like the market conditions that they would 158 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 6: intervene in. 159 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 7: And yeah, we've seen it. We've seen a reasonable trae 160 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 7: retracement since then. 161 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 6: Right, Well, I think the big question is is whether 162 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:27,680 Speaker 6: it really works, right, I mean, I you know, there's 163 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 6: very little evidence that effects intervention by by official authorities, 164 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 6: whether central banks or ministries or finance, actually actually works. 165 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 6: You kind of need to have a lot of the 166 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 6: fundamentals lining up for it to really change. And I 167 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 6: just I just think that really in the case of 168 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 6: dolly En, the hands the direction of it is going 169 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 6: to be really more in the hands of. 170 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 7: J Powell rather than rather than anyone in Japan. 171 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 2: Let me ask you just a general unsophisticated question. 172 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 3: I do best on those on Monday. I'm really good 173 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 3: at those. 174 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 2: James Ward, If they and out of their piggy bank 175 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 2: to intervene, what is the cost? Is it a substantial 176 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 2: cost to Japan to intervene or not. 177 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 7: Well, they have plenty of reserves that they can use 178 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 7: to intervene in. 179 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 6: And given that the kind of the fairly sporadic way 180 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,479 Speaker 6: or a relatively rare nature of these kind of interventions, 181 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 6: so I think dipping into their piggy bank every now 182 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 6: and then for these sorts of events is not is 183 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 6: not hugely costly in the overall context of their reserve position. 184 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 6: But I guess like you have to sort of think 185 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 6: about the benefit, right, like, what are they what are 186 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 6: they getting for the effort that they put in and 187 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 6: the money that they spend doing it. 188 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 7: And I'm not entirely sure that they get a huge 189 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 7: lot huge amount. 190 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 6: I mean, they can buy some time, right, the benefit 191 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 6: is that they get some time where the market starts 192 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 6: to stabilize, temporarily starts to reassess maybe people who are 193 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 6: long dollar yen kind. 194 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 7: Of justice the injuries for a little bit. 195 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 6: But I don't think that the benefit is really is 196 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 6: really there for the long time. 197 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 2: Tip to tip on intervention if and I'm want to 198 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 2: be careful your folks, Bloomberg does not report that there 199 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 2: was an intervention by institutions in Japan. Mister Lord has 200 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 2: made clear, that's their interpretation of Morgan Stanley. 201 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 3: I want to be very careful on that, Paul. 202 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 2: The yen strength tip to tip on this right now 203 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 2: is about three. 204 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 3: Point five percent. 205 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 2: Okay, that's that's the ginormous move. 206 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:33,079 Speaker 3: That's like a normal day in the you know, name 207 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:34,479 Speaker 3: the Polish. 208 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 5: Lot of here exactly, James. Why doesn't just for those 209 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 5: of us that don't follow this day to day, why 210 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:41,679 Speaker 5: wouldn't this center bank come out and say that what 211 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 5: they did or did not do number one? Number two? 212 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 5: If they're out there buying yen, aren't they calling your 213 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 5: trader Morgan stand there goldmen sacks same buy yen for me? 214 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 5: Wouldn't you guys know? How does that all work? 215 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 3: Oh? 216 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 6: I think they'll go mostly by the local banks and 217 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 6: by local jet banks. I mean not the if not 218 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 6: the representatives of of foreign banks that are working in Japan. 219 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:06,839 Speaker 6: I think mostly that will be done by by the 220 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 6: Japanese banks at least. That's the kind of history and 221 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 6: and and the market color that that we get when 222 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 6: when these sorts of events happen, and eventually you know, 223 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 6: they will confirm it. I mean, I think at the 224 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 6: end of the month, at the end at the end 225 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:23,719 Speaker 6: of May, they will report the official intervention data that 226 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 6: gets that gets reported on a monthly basis, and in 227 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 6: there we will see whether or not they've intervened. 228 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 7: And I think, you know, maybe that kind of. 229 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:35,199 Speaker 6: Strategic ambiguity in the short term is helpful for them, 230 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 6: because if they come out and say, actually, no, we 231 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 6: we didn't intervene now, then you know, a lot of 232 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 6: I think a lot of investors would see that as 233 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 6: a green light to start buying some dollars again. 234 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 7: And they and they clearly don't. They don't really want 235 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 7: to do that. 236 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,079 Speaker 6: And if they, if they confirmed it now, then it 237 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 6: would it would just result in a lot more questions 238 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 6: about how much and is this going to be a 239 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 6: new policy, And so I think for the time being 240 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 6: they'll just let the market keep guessing and just wait 241 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 6: for that official confirmation to come out at the end 242 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 6: of May. 243 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 5: All right, James, So, if I look at the Bloomberg 244 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 5: Dollar Spot Index up about four percent, really off of 245 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 5: that kind of late December mark. Here, if the dollars 246 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 5: that strong, who's on the other side of that train, 247 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 5: what currencies are getting hurt the most? 248 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 6: Well, I mean, yen has been on the other side 249 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 6: of it clearly for a lot of this year, and 250 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 6: a lot of the low yielding currencies really have been 251 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 6: the ones that have suffered the most, Right, I mean, 252 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 6: we've been in an environment this year where, at least 253 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 6: up until up until the end of Q one, we. 254 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 7: Saw appetite for carriage carry trades were very very strong, right. 255 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:41,319 Speaker 6: I think we include the dollar in that, I mean, 256 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 6: as the highest yielding G ten currency, it was performing 257 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 6: extremely well against everything else that was pretty much lower 258 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 6: yielding then it So euros obviously suffered a bit this year, 259 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 6: Cables come under and started to come under a little 260 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 6: bit of pressure. 261 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 7: But then as we've started to see more and more 262 00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:57,839 Speaker 7: evidence of. 263 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 6: This reinflation in the the States, it has started to 264 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 6: impact rates volatility, and it has started to impact effects volatility, 265 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 6: and when that happy happens, car carry trades come under pressure. 266 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 6: So even the lights of Mexican, Pesto, Brazilian around real 267 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,439 Speaker 6: they've started to weaken a little bit more meaningfully recently. 268 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 6: So the dollar strength has really broadened out from what 269 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 6: was just a low yield of trade to something that's 270 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 6: had been a little a little bit broader. 271 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 2: Where are we on dollar strength, I haven't asked this 272 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 2: question in ages, but unlike trade weighted broad trade weighted 273 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 2: major real trade weighted dollar. I'll let you pick the series, 274 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 2: But is it how richly richly priced is US dollar 275 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 2: right now? 276 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 3: Yeah? 277 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 6: I mean we're kind of close to multi decade highs 278 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 6: really in the real if you take the FEDS trade 279 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 6: weighted real build dollar index on a real basis, we're 280 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 6: pretty much in multi decade highs. I mean, you know, 281 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 6: we haven't quite I don't think in real terms, gone 282 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 6: back to the level that we saw around October twenty 283 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 6: twenty two, which incidentally was the last time the minute 284 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 6: your Finance in Japan intervened like that was coming off 285 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 6: of a long bear market for US treasuries rate hikes. 286 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 6: Rate hikes have been priced in quite substantially, and we 287 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 6: haven't quite got to that level on the broad on 288 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 6: the broad doll I mean, this was when your dollar 289 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 6: was kind of trading closer to parity and we had 290 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 6: a lot more dollars. 291 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 7: We haven't got back to those levels just yet. 292 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 6: But yeah, I mean it's interesting that that was the 293 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 6: last the Minister of Finance intervention in twenty twenty two. 294 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 6: In October twenty twenty two did mark the peak of 295 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 6: the dollar. I'm not sure it will be this time 296 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 6: because I think we really need to see US inflation 297 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 6: come down. 298 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 7: But the parallel is there. 299 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 3: James, I'm running out of time. Let me squeeze this in. 300 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 2: President Trump and his supporters over the weekend talk about 301 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 2: managing the dollar. Can any given politician or government manage 302 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 2: the dollar? 303 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 7: I think it's going to be really tough. I think 304 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 7: it's really tough to do that. 305 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 6: I mean, I think on the one hand, they coordinated 306 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 6: effects intervention can work, obviously, the most famous example of 307 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 6: being the Plaza record. So if the US was were 308 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 6: able to convince this many trading partners to cooperate, then. 309 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 7: Then that might then that might work. 310 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 6: But if it's just the US pushing for it itself, 311 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 6: I'm not sure that it's going to be that affected, 312 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 6: particularly if it's not again consistent with the outlook for 313 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 6: the US economy. If you if you continuously get strong 314 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 6: inflation prints and clearly if you have a week of dollar, 315 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 6: the risk is that invasion just stays high in the 316 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 6: US for longer and the FED just keeps hiking, then 317 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 6: then it will really blunt the impact of it. 318 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 2: Very informative. Don't be a stranger. He's nicer than hands. 319 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 2: Redicer Well, hands was sort of always sure, James Lord, 320 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 2: thank you so much. With Morgan Stanley, it's been too long. 321 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 2: Tina Fordham joins us right now with Fordham Global Force, 322 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 2: so she's got some incredible perspective on geopolitics, and Tina, 323 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 2: I really want to focus on what I haven't focused on. 324 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 2: We're just to go near on Gaza. I saw a 325 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 2: photograph over the weekend of the complete total serial like 326 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 2: devastation of Gaza. What are they going to do down 327 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:14,679 Speaker 2: the strip in Rafa and how does diplomacy fit in 328 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 2: to a further devastration of Israel of the geography. 329 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 8: Well, you've laid out just how complex and depressing the 330 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 8: picture is. There's no other word for it. We are 331 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 8: hearing that the ICC, the International Criminal Court, is on 332 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 8: the verge of issuing arrest warrants to Israeli Prime Minister Natanyahu. 333 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 8: There are talks going on with Mohammed Ben Solomon and 334 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 8: other officials in Riad on the sidelines of the World 335 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 8: Economic Forum meeting there. And I guess it was Friday 336 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 8: that the IDF, the Israeli Defense Force said that they 337 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 8: were prepared to begin the offensive in in Rafa unless 338 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 8: Hamas returns the hostages and aegreates to a peace deal. 339 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:09,719 Speaker 2: Paul wants to get in here. But I I ask 340 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 2: a dumb question. If I'm in northern Gaza and they 341 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 2: blow me out, I go down to Middle Gaza. If 342 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 2: I'm in middle Gaza and they blow me out, I 343 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 2: go down to lower Gaza. Gaza is on the border 344 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 2: with Egypt. If they blow people out of Rafa, where 345 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 2: do they go well? 346 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 8: And this is why the talks are going on with 347 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 8: the Egyptians right now, who who have not accepted Palestinian 348 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:39,400 Speaker 8: refugees right And a corollary to this, which I think 349 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 8: people forget, is that during the war in Syria, Turkey 350 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 8: accepted large numbers of refugees from that war. A similar 351 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 8: agreement has not been forthcoming with Egypt. They don't want 352 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,160 Speaker 8: to get stuck with a lot of refugees, and they 353 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 8: have their own security concerns to be mindful of. But yes, 354 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,679 Speaker 8: there's nowhere for the for the refugees to go. There's 355 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 8: nowhere for the people of Gaza to go, and Israelis 356 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 8: are ramping up the pressure and we have to wonder 357 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 8: if what's going on on the sidelines of these meetings 358 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 8: in Riad is that golf Arab states are doing exactly 359 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:21,120 Speaker 8: the same thing. 360 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 5: So, Tina, we're more than six months into this operation 361 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:28,399 Speaker 5: here by the Israelis, you know, unspeakable levels of destruction 362 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 5: of Gaza. In hindsight, is there any indication that Hamas 363 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 5: miscalculated here terribly in their October seventh attack. 364 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:45,360 Speaker 8: Well, it's hard to see what they've gained apart from 365 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 8: putting the Palestinians back on the agenda. Remember that, you know, 366 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 8: just a few well six months ago, really people were 367 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 8: talking about this impending deal normalization between Israel and sou 368 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 8: and others that would have paved the way for a 369 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:06,679 Speaker 8: lot of regional economic integration. Gulf states still want that 370 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 8: to happen, but a Palestinian state was not part of 371 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 8: the discussion. And then you know, we've entered this kind 372 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 8: of hellscape of the offensive in Gaza, the Houthi rebels, 373 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 8: the recent exchange, you know, kind of unprecedents in exchange 374 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 8: of missile fire. My question, I mean to myself, is 375 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 8: this the geopolitical bottom, Like can it get worse? Or 376 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 8: are is Hamas decided that it's going to accept oslo 377 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 8: kind of terms. I mean, that is kind of mind blowing. 378 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 8: But you really have to get to the bottom before 379 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 8: you can consider. 380 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 2: Tina, I think you're the most qualified person I know, 381 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 2: maybe leslie Vena, Muria Chathamouse as well, but Tina Fordham, 382 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 2: you are more qualified than anyone I know to talk 383 00:20:55,480 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 2: about the college protests in America over to nineteen sixty eight. 384 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 2: In all the work I've done on that with Gui 385 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 2: Sarman of Paris and others, how do you treat the 386 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 2: protests in elite schools in America within the filter that 387 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 2: you have of diplomacy and the history of protest It is. 388 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 8: Quite a spectacle. I mean, first of all, I'm a 389 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 8: Columbia alum, and I'm on the advisory board for SIBA, 390 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 8: the School of International and Public Affairs, which is also 391 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:35,199 Speaker 8: caught up in these o it's mainly the college. I 392 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 8: don't think this is nineteen sixty eight, right. I think 393 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 8: that this is identity politics in the United States that 394 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 8: has now incorporated a foreign policy angle. I think it's 395 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:53,359 Speaker 8: incredibly difficult for the university administrations to balance their commitment 396 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 8: to free speech and to the community that is a 397 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 8: university with their title six obligations. They've got to protect 398 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 8: students and the whole sorry spectacle seems to me. And 399 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 8: you know, I said in London, where I have for 400 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 8: a long time to be a culmination of the culture 401 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 8: wars and in some ways the tiktokification of very complex issues. 402 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 5: So Tina, I guess again, we're six months into this. 403 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 5: Is there any consensus with the people that you talk 404 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 5: to that really have informed opinions and analysis of this situation? 405 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 5: Is there a scenario where Israel can end this war 406 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 5: in any reasonable time frame? 407 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 8: There are off ramps available. They're definitely scenarios where Israel 408 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 8: and this war. What is less clear is whether Nata 409 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,679 Speaker 8: Yahoo can end the war because his political future is 410 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 8: so wrapped up in the continuation of the conflict. As 411 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 8: soon as the conflict ends, he's no longer a wartime 412 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 8: prime minister and new elections will be called. He's he 413 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:09,360 Speaker 8: was unpopular before, remember those massive protests in the cities 414 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 8: and the failure to bring the hostages home and the 415 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 8: failure indeed to protect Israel against the Hamas attack has 416 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 8: made him even less popular. So he doesn't want to 417 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 8: face elections. And you know, he's this is a very tactical, 418 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 8: I think response that we see now. I think Natagne 419 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 8: who is going day to day. 420 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,160 Speaker 2: Tina, thank you, brilliant, Tina Fordham Fordham Global Insight, Thank 421 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 2: you so much there on the narrowness of. 422 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 9: Gaza your daily look at the front pages around the 423 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,120 Speaker 9: world out on YouTube. 424 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 2: Use those hearts like you use for Lisa. 425 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 3: Give John Tucker some love. 426 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: This one comes from the polls and I am shy 427 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: shocked by this story. The post sites are report by 428 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 1: financial tech company Self. It says New York, New Jersey, 429 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: and Connecticut rank among the top five states for residents 430 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: paying the most in federal and state taxes on their 431 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 1: lifetime earnings. Yes, we have the unenviable distinction of being 432 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: number one in the Garden State, leading the bank breaking pack. 433 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: Residents shell out a staggering nine hundred eighty seven thousand, 434 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 1: one hundred seventy two dollars on average for various taxes 435 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: during their lifeline. So that's roughly fifty four point three 436 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: percent of a resident's total lifetime earnings. 437 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 3: And we get it. 438 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 5: We get a bank for the book for that though, 439 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 5: don't we. 440 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,959 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, and this doesn't include my tolls or the 441 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: advancement of the MTA's June thirtieth. 442 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 10: This is different than when Lisa doesn't just say oh, 443 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 10: by the way, just dealing with doctor Paul here West 444 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 10: rest Virginians consider pretty well they have to fork over 445 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 10: the lowest amount of total taxes nationward. 446 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,679 Speaker 2: But it's affecting migration nationally. You see Illinois and some 447 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 2: of these other big says. 448 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 1: Well, when you retire, do you stay here and still 449 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,399 Speaker 1: you know, fork over gigantic taxes or whatever. 450 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 2: Anyway, I said, I'm never going to retire, so you 451 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 2: know it works out. 452 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 1: The next one has me crying in my beer. This 453 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 1: comes from the Financial Time Sitting, a study by Deloitte 454 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 1: Britons are choosing to spend less money in bars and 455 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 1: pobs than at any time since the lockdown added. This 456 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: survey asked about thirty two hundred UK customers if they 457 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: had spent more less of the same on leisure the 458 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: past three months. It showed sentiment in eating out and 459 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 1: drinking in pubs and bars had declined by about six 460 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:50,200 Speaker 1: percentage points. They didn't talk to anybody. 461 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 3: I know. 462 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: Apparently it's just getting too expensive though. 463 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 3: Yeah. 464 00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 1: For example, they cited Tim Martin. He's the founder of JD. Wetherspoon, 465 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 1: the chain there. He's had com petition from supermarkets is 466 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: a pretty big challenge for a lot of the pubs. 467 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 1: You buy your beer in the supermarket, Well, yeah, it's 468 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: cheaper and you just sit home in front of the 469 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: telly and all. 470 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,400 Speaker 5: Right, So John, I'm at a beach bar in Belmore yesterday, 471 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,679 Speaker 5: rush sunny day. Gonna go get a cold beer out there, 472 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 5: sit out on a patty and watch some boats. Miller 473 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 5: Lite Draft fourteen dollars at the Jersey Shore. 474 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 1: For one draft. Exactly what exactly I buy a case 475 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: for that? 476 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 2: I know, I said, is transfixed by this. 477 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 3: We got designs. 478 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: Bring back Lisa anyway, all right, let's let's do the Stones. 479 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 1: They kicked off the latest tour last night at Houston's 480 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: Energy Stadium. That's appropriate, ap describes Mick Jagger often strutting 481 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: up and down the stage with seemingly boundless energy. Well, 482 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 1: Keith Richards and Ronnie Wood played many familiar guitar riffs 483 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 1: below by fans, and Jagger let the audience and sing 484 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 1: as drummer Charlie wants he wasn't there. That's because he's dead. 485 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 1: Houston was the frust Nice on the band's sixteen city tour. 486 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: During the eighteen song concert setlist, the Stones played several 487 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 1: tracks off a their new record. The Stones have been 488 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: touring for more than sixty years and Mick eighty years old, along. 489 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 2: With Keith, Paul, you're the expert in how many times 490 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 2: have you seen the Stones? 491 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:27,159 Speaker 5: I've seen him three and I wish I would have 492 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 5: seen him like ten more. 493 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,119 Speaker 1: But I mean, do they do most of the performing 494 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 1: the music or is it like the backup? 495 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 2: Oh? 496 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 5: No, no, I think I mean every song Keith starts 497 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 5: with the world famous riff, you know, and then but yeah, 498 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 5: so it's an extoriny. But I can't wait to see 499 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 5: what they're charging for tickets and all that kind of stuff. 500 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:49,520 Speaker 5: And another thing, Luke, one of the Luke's, the country singer, 501 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 5: put in like ninety thousand fans of Beaver Stadium at 502 00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 5: Penn State over the weekend. Country music's huge too. 503 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 8: Yeah. 504 00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:01,119 Speaker 1: So yeah, most appropriately for the Stones, they were sponsored 505 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 1: in Point Bright Aa. 506 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 2: Are you serious? 507 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 1: I'm serious? 508 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:05,679 Speaker 2: You're serious? 509 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:06,880 Speaker 1: Here's that serious? 510 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:07,960 Speaker 8: Well? 511 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 5: I mean, these guys they go on tour and they 512 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,280 Speaker 5: sell out these stadiums. They don't know, it's just extraordinary. 513 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 1: I think they had to be in bed by like a. 514 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 3: Wh is Listen. 515 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,440 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 516 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 517 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 518 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 519 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 520 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 2: New York City. 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