1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 2: This is a fascinating trade that we're watching. The broad 7 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: market not so good today, but Nvidia is on fire. 8 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 3: AMD is having a big day. This is a big day. 9 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 2: For artificial intelligence and the companies that we talk about 10 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 2: in this whole ecosystem. It's all coming together with an 11 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 2: event that's being thrown together and endorsed by the White 12 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 2: House here with a lot of other officials, both government 13 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 2: officials and corporate officials, and we're going to bring you 14 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: there live in just a moment. Thanks for being here 15 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 2: on the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg 16 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 2: Radio Satellite radio channel one twenty one. We're live on 17 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Originals. If you'd like to see what's happening, go 18 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 2: to YouTube as well search Bloomberg Business News Live. As 19 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 2: we bring you our live stream here from the nation's 20 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 2: capital throughout the day, the President in Pittsburgh here along 21 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 2: with a series of notables. Senator David McCormick is part 22 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 2: of this. You keep hearing the number seventy billion dollars. 23 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 2: This is a collection of investments coming from the private 24 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 2: sector here, Blackstone, Core Weave, and it's not just to 25 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: open data centers, it's about getting the power, the energy 26 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 2: to drive them. And that's where we start our conversation 27 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 2: this hour. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall has already made her way 28 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 2: to Pittsburgh and is now at the Big Pennsylvania Energy 29 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 2: Summit with us right now as we look toward the 30 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 2: future of artificial intelligence. 31 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 3: Tyler, what's happening on the ground. 32 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, hey, Joe, Well, we're waiting for President Trump to 33 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 4: take the stage later on this afternoon, and as you 34 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 4: mentioned there, he's expected to announce billions when it comes 35 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 4: to investments in artificial intelligence, but also the energy infrastructure 36 00:01:57,080 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 4: and actually the energy power that's needed in order to 37 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 4: fuel it. And it's sort of difficult to pinpoint how 38 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 4: much energy artificial intelligence actually uses because there's a bunch 39 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 4: of different metrics that goes into it. But one thing 40 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 4: is for sure. Demand is surging and it's only expected 41 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 4: to go up from here. A recent analysis from Goldman 42 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 4: Sachs estimates that data center energy consumption is going to 43 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 4: go up one hundred and sixty percent by twenty thirty five. 44 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 4: That then leaves us with questions on how is the 45 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,799 Speaker 4: US going to meet that demand? And I actually sat 46 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 4: down earlier with the US Energy Secretary, Christopher Wright, who 47 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,679 Speaker 4: told it's going to be difficult, but that the administration 48 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 4: is trying to prioritize this idea that their deregulation agenda 49 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 4: is ultimately going to help spur more production. I will 50 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 4: say an interesting sort of counter to this is that 51 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 4: while the administration is of course very focused on this 52 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 4: idea of drilling, drill, baby, drill, we hear a lot 53 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 4: from them. I spoke to the American Petroleum Institute. Yes 54 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 4: they do represent the oil industry, but they actually told 55 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 4: me that this might need to be a whole approach, 56 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 4: a holistic approach, and include other energy sources like wind 57 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 4: and solar, for example, because because the need that the 58 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 4: consumption is just really going up from here. 59 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: Joe, that says. 60 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 2: A lot Tyler, who when the API is talking wind 61 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:13,679 Speaker 2: in solar, Tyler, we'll get back to you a little 62 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 2: bit as we stand by for the president's arrival at 63 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,079 Speaker 2: the Pennsylvania Innovation and Energy Summit. 64 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 3: We've got our eyes. 65 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 2: As I mentioned on in Vidia, it's not just because 66 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 2: of this summit that's going on. There's big news today 67 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 2: that's been driving the stock price here sharply higher, AMD 68 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 2: as well in video right now up over four percent 69 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 2: or seven dollars to a new all time high. We're 70 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 2: in the one hundred seventy one dollars zone here for 71 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 2: in Nvidia, and it's not an accident. As you've been 72 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 2: hearing on Bloomberg, in Vidia and AMD, its rival have 73 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 2: been clear to resume some AI chip sales to China 74 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 2: in a very important reversal here. Remembering we told you 75 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 2: with the help of Mike Sheppard that Jensen Wong was 76 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 2: at the White House last week, we might have a 77 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 2: better idea now of what they were talking about. A 78 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 2: couple things I want to mention before we bring in 79 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 2: shep Howard Lutnik on the other network right now saying 80 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 2: that we're selling China our fourth best chip. These are 81 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 2: not the Blackwells, right, These are the age twenties that 82 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 2: you've heard about that in Vidio will now be able 83 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 2: to start selling to China again, Lutnx saying we stay 84 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 2: one step ahead of China, so they continue to buy 85 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 2: the chips, presumably that we want. 86 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 3: Them to buy. 87 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 2: Scott Besson also weighing in on talks trade talks with China. 88 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 2: He was live on Bloomberg TV and radio earlier today. 89 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 2: Here's what he said on Bloomberg Surveillance. 90 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 5: You might say that that was a negotiating chip that 91 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 5: we used in Geneva and in London. It was all 92 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 5: part of a mosaic. They had things we wanted, we 93 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 5: have things they wanted, and we're in a very good place. 94 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 5: I expect to meet my Chinese counterpart, the Vice Premiere, 95 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 5: in the next few weeks. 96 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 2: Time to start stacking the chip. It sounds like Michael 97 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 2: Shepherd has been all over this story for US live 98 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 2: in Washington, Bloomberg Senior editor for Technology and Strategic Industries. 99 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: It's great to see you. My congratulations on all this coverage. 100 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 2: You're the one who's been scooping this for us. With 101 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 2: a remarkable turn in this administration. What did Jensen Wong 102 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 2: say to Donald Trump last week? 103 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 6: Well, we don't know. This was a conversation that took 104 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:24,359 Speaker 6: place in private between the two men who clearly, since 105 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 6: the starting the administration have built something of a rapport. 106 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 6: Joe It's funny and Trump's public remarks where Jensen Wong 107 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,559 Speaker 6: has been present at an event or has been Trump 108 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 6: has been asked about Nvidia and things like chips restrictions. 109 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 6: He has singled out the CEO for lavish praise and 110 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 6: really jumped onto the Nvidia bandwagon as a signal of 111 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,799 Speaker 6: what he sees as an American success story in Saudi Arabia. 112 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 6: He did a sort of a roll call of who 113 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 6: was present, and he was looking for Jensen Wang in 114 00:05:56,400 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 6: the audience and found him. Where's Jensen, Where's my friend Jensen? 115 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 6: And he went on to praise some of the spending 116 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 6: plans that in Nvidia has to make five hundred billion 117 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 6: dollars worth of its chips at these new TSMC plants 118 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:13,840 Speaker 6: that are being built in Arizona right now. So Jensen 119 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 6: Wang is getting on the right side of Trump's attempt 120 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 6: to reindustrialize the country. 121 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 3: That part of the story, But the other. 122 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 6: Part is Trump may have been more receptive as a 123 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 6: result to Jensen Wong's other message, which is that, look, 124 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 6: we need to be able to export these chips to markets, 125 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 6: including China, because if we see the China market, it 126 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 6: is the largest or semiconductors in the world. Mind you, 127 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 6: if we see that market, then Huawei will have free 128 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 6: reign there, and then Huawei will be able to develop 129 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 6: enough critical mass to be able to start selling some 130 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 6: of those chips that compete with the videos to other 131 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 6: markets abroad, in the Middle East and Latin America and 132 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 6: in Africa. Jensen Wong very much wants and he's articulated 133 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 6: this repeatedly, including the US officials, that he wants to 134 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 6: see AI developed globally on what he calls an American 135 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 6: text test. 136 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 2: Right, And I've heard you say that before, but I've 137 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 2: never heard the argument quite the way that you just 138 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: articulated it. It's not just that you know, what's good 139 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 2: for America is good for the world. This is about 140 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 2: an emboldened China strength in Huawei that would have influence 141 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 2: beyond our borders. So if they're buying in Vidio, you 142 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 2: keep Wawei in check. 143 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 6: That is at least the theory as spelled out by 144 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 6: Jensen Wong. Now there are a lot of China hawks 145 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 6: here in Washington. We've talked about for years, Joe, who 146 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 6: have great concerns about this approach. They see that letting 147 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 6: China and Chinese companies gain access to advanced technology like 148 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 6: in videos, it poses a national security risk. And they 149 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 6: see a great nexus between China's industrial complex and its 150 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 6: military complex. And the fear is that these AI chips 151 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 6: have a dual use potential, that they could be used 152 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 6: for surveillance for military purposes, and they see that as 153 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 6: a risk, and they had applauded the previous ban on 154 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 6: these Age twenty chips. Now, remember the H twenty chip 155 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 6: had been tailored specifically by Nvidia for the Chinese markets 156 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 6: to meet previous restrictions that the Biden administration had imposed. 157 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 6: But the administration, prior administration and the new administration, the 158 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 6: Trump administration had grown concerned that maybe those restrictions weren't 159 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 6: tough enough and that China might be able to do 160 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 6: something to either make gains in AI commercially or militarily. 161 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 6: Hence the move in February by Trump to crack down 162 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 6: on H twenty sales in China. But now we're seeing 163 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 6: a reversal. And Howard Lutna kind of pointed to this. 164 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 6: He was making the argument that look, those H twenty 165 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 6: chips are really kind of second or third tier. And 166 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 6: we even heard David Sachs in an interview on a 167 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 6: B Tech just in the past hour with our own 168 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 6: at Ludlow make essentially that same case, Joe. 169 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: In our remaining moment here we're talking about Jensen Wogen 170 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 2: in video. This is a big deal for AMD as 171 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 2: well be able to sell its M three to eight. 172 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 2: If I'm saying it right now, ship does Lisa Sue 173 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 2: have Jensen want to thank her big competitor, Well. 174 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 3: Very much. 175 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 6: I mean Lisa Sue of course has been trying to 176 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 6: make her own case in inroads with the administration on 177 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 6: this policy front. But really the name that garners all 178 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 6: the headlines and the chips that everybody around the world 179 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 6: wants for AI, it's in video. 180 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 2: They're one of these Age twenty assemblies. They're pretty heavy. 181 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 6: It's seventy pounds. 182 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 3: Seventy pounds. Good workout, Joe. I bet that's true. 183 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 2: It just makes you realize how difficult it is to 184 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 2: move these things to go to the gym. Well, I 185 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 2: bet that's right. With Mike Shepherd breaking news here today 186 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg, as we watch shares of Nvidia leap higher, 187 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 2: now one hundred and seventy one dollars, up over four percent. 188 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 2: We'll keep tabs on this for you. With another check 189 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 2: on the markets coming up. 190 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 1: Right here on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance 191 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 192 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,559 Speaker 1: five pm e stern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto 193 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 194 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: on ammaz on Alexa from our flagship New York station 195 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 196 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 2: We want to talk about all of this with Anna Ashton, 197 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 2: the founder of Ashton Analytics, a specialist in US China trade, 198 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:15,199 Speaker 2: which is why we bring her on so often, former 199 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 2: China analyst with the Department of Defense, and it's great 200 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 2: to have you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 201 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 2: I'm wondering your thoughts on this about face when it 202 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 2: comes to chips from Nvidia and AMD. Is this in 203 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 2: the best national security interest of America? 204 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 7: Well, you know, I think it's important to note that 205 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 7: not only are these not the only things that the 206 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 7: Trump administration has recently rolled back in terms of export restrictions, 207 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 7: but all of the things that they've rolled back so 208 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 7: far are things that they themselves imposed this spring, either 209 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 7: in April or in May. So when Treasury Secretary Bassett 210 00:10:55,840 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 7: indicates that these were, you know, chips that were part 211 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 7: of the London negotiations, I take that at base value. 212 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 7: They imposed more restrictions on experts of certain goods that 213 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 7: they believed to be strategic for China in order to 214 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 7: have bargaining power to try to get China to speed 215 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 7: up its exports of bearers. 216 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 8: Well, so, when you talk about the walk backs we've 217 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 8: seen from this administration on various fronts when it comes 218 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 8: to China, how much of a dovish urn would you 219 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 8: characterize it as? Anna If it is indeed a dubbish turn, 220 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 8: how upset do you think China hawks and then around 221 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 8: the administration and elsewhere are about these moves. 222 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 7: Well, look, I definitely think that China hawks are going 223 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 7: to be upset, regardless of whether the rollbacks are of 224 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:55,079 Speaker 7: restrictions that were imposed recently by the Trump administration or 225 00:11:55,280 --> 00:12:00,319 Speaker 7: of previously imposed restrictions, because from a China Hawk perspective, 226 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 7: none of this technology should be going to China at all. 227 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 7: But I also think that in terms of trying to 228 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 7: measure whether or not this is a dubvish term by 229 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 7: the Trump administration. We still have to wait and see, 230 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:17,679 Speaker 7: because at the end of the day, this will only 231 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 7: be a truly substantive change in US policy towards China 232 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 7: when it comes to export controls and access to critical 233 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 7: US technologies. If we see a rollback in Biden era 234 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 7: export controls, I certainly think that that is something that 235 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:37,079 Speaker 7: China wants, and it may be it's possible China will 236 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 7: get something like that because we know that rare exports 237 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 7: have you know, the licensing approvals have picked up, and 238 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 7: there's some evidence to indicate that shipments are are beginning 239 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:54,679 Speaker 7: to flow more smoothly. But certainly there's no approval of 240 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,199 Speaker 7: anything to go to military end users. 241 00:12:58,200 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 9: For example. 242 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 7: They could always be faster than they already are, and 243 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 7: they're not as fast as they were prior to these 244 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 7: restrictions on exports of Chinese rearers and magnets being imposed. 245 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 7: So we'll have to see whether or not the Trump 246 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 7: administration is willing to give ground on any Biden era policies. 247 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 2: Well, do you worry more about the next deep seek 248 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 2: emerging or do you go back to your role at 249 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 2: the Department of Defense and worry about what China might 250 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 2: do with this technology when it comes to building weapons. 251 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 7: I think that whether or not China gets this technology. 252 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 9: From the US, and I think that this is. 253 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 7: This buys China time to continue developing indigenous technologies without 254 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 7: losing the ability to apply these technologies in various ways 255 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 7: that are important for them in the near term. But 256 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 7: China has been throwing enormous amounts of money towards indigenous 257 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 7: development of its own technologies so that it won't have 258 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 7: to rely on the United States anymore. 259 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 9: It's been doing that for. 260 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 7: A number of years now, and it's been doubling and 261 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 7: tripling down on that. I think it's only a matter 262 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 7: of time before China doesn't need US technologies in order 263 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 7: to accomplish the various ends that it's trying to accomplish. 264 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 9: And so that's happening regardless. 265 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 8: Well, speaking of matters of time, Anna, we just heard 266 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 8: from the Treasury Secretary moments ago suggesting that August twelfth 267 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 8: should not be viewed by market participants as a deadline 268 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 8: they should be worried about. Does that suggest to you 269 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 8: that there is a lack of forward progress in reaching 270 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 8: more of a trade agreement between the US and China. 271 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 8: Should we consider any of these deadlines to be real 272 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 8: at this point. 273 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 9: Super fair question. 274 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 7: It does suggest to me that they have yet to 275 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 7: make it past serious discussion, make it too serious discussion 276 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 7: of things beyond rare earth. 277 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 9: I feel like rare earth has been the. 278 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 7: Hair on fire crisis for the Trump administration, particularly because 279 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:11,119 Speaker 7: of the heavy rare earth magnets that are so important 280 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 7: not only to electric vehicles but also to traditional combustion 281 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 7: engine vehicles and to so many electronics. And I think 282 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 7: that you know that that will continue to be something 283 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 7: that China can use as leverage to get the US 284 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 7: to the table, and until that is satisfactorily resolved in 285 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 7: the US mind, it will be hard to move forward 286 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 7: on negotiation of other issues. 287 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 10: Uh. 288 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 9: I think it is worth noting that. 289 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 7: A couple of key heavy rare earths that are used 290 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 7: in these magnets that have been in short supply, like 291 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 7: dysprosium for example, and neodemium. Uh, those also are not 292 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 7: They're primarily sourced from Me and mar and the state 293 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 7: in Me and that they're primarily sourced from has been 294 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 7: incredibly unstable due to domestic conflict for the past six 295 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 7: six to eight months, and China itself is having a 296 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 7: hard time getting these things. So it's just worth keeping 297 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 7: in mind that China is not necessarily simply using these 298 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 7: rare earth export licensing restrictions to. 299 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 9: Gain leverage visa v. The US. 300 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 7: It is also thinking about its own supply security. 301 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 9: And that may that may lean how much it can negotiate. 302 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 2: Do you want to see President Trump President She in 303 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 2: the same room. Do you want to see a summit? 304 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 2: And is that in fact where the President might be 305 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 2: most likely to give up the ghost on this and 306 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 2: lower export controls to your point from the Biden administration. 307 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 7: From from a from the perspective of somebody who would 308 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 7: like to see a more functional and healthy US China relationship, Yeah, 309 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 7: that sounds like a really nice thing when I'm thinking 310 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 7: about it in terms of. 311 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 9: Strict US interests. 312 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 7: There are things that could certainly be gained there if 313 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 7: I put on my China Hawk hat and look at 314 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 7: it through the lens of security concerns. These are really 315 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:26,439 Speaker 7: difficult trade offs, and a meeting that caused President Trump 316 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 7: to relax export controls, you know, bigger and more fundamental 317 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 7: export controls on advanced technologies to China might not be 318 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 7: in the US interest. 319 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 9: Anna. 320 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 8: We learned from President Trump yesterday that if no ceasefire 321 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,919 Speaker 8: agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine within fifty days, 322 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,159 Speaker 8: that he will look to impose one hundred percent what 323 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 8: he described as secondary tariffs on countries that help Russia, 324 00:17:55,440 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 8: including big buyers of Russian oil read China. Do you 325 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 8: expect Beijing would respond if indeed something like that were implemented. 326 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 8: Would would their behavior be, Okay, well, we're going to 327 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 8: stop buying cheap Russian crude and exports, or we're going 328 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 8: to potentially retaliate against the US with tariffs and kind. 329 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 7: China certainly can't stop buying Russian crude or gas, and 330 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 7: that's because it gets an even bigger percentage from Russia 331 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 7: than it did before the Ukraine War started. 332 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 9: And you know, it's pretty it's pretty heavily rely ont 333 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 9: on Russia. 334 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 7: Russia it's one of its main suppliers. So that's that's 335 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 7: not in the cards. What is potentially in the cards 336 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 7: is use of smaller companies instead of their main oil 337 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 7: and gas companies, which which is already to a large 338 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 7: extent the case to move that oil and gas and 339 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 7: therefore sort of shield China's broader economy for many secondary 340 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 7: sanctions that are imposed. If if the secondary sanctions don't 341 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 7: hit the big banks that are you know, if the 342 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:09,199 Speaker 7: big banks aren't processing these transactions, then you know, China 343 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 7: can kind of prevent calamity from ensuing as a result 344 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 7: of the sanctions. And we've seen them kind of we've 345 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 7: seen them do that with their purchases from Iran as well. 346 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 7: That's what I would expect that to be their first move. 347 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 8: Well, so Anna, if I read you correctly, if China's 348 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 8: not going to be able to actually adjust its purchases 349 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,959 Speaker 8: of Russian oil, would that mean that these these secondary sanctions, tariffs, 350 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 8: whatever you want to call them, would not have the 351 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 8: intended effect the president wants here, which is to put 352 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 8: the squeeze on the Russian economy and stop them from 353 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 8: being able to fund their war machine. 354 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 7: I don't think that they would have the intended effect 355 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 7: because I think that I mean, you know, other countries 356 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 7: that are buying from Russia might not have the same 357 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 7: safeguards in place to protect them from secondary sanctions, but 358 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 7: China certainly has safeguards in place, and China. 359 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 9: Is the biggest fire. So yeah, I mean, I think. 360 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 7: That we've been learning the hard way for a few 361 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 7: years now that there are limits to the power of 362 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 7: US sanctions and they don't always achieve what we hope 363 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 7: that they will achieve. And I don't think that secondary 364 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 7: sanctions on all sales of Russian oil are necessarily going 365 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 7: to achieve what Trump wants. 366 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 8: All right, Anna, we appreciate you joining us as always. 367 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 8: Anna Ashton's founder of Ashton Analytics. 368 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 369 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:48,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 370 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen 371 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 372 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 373 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 2: China looming large today in testimony on Capitol Hill. Michael Waltz, Yes, 374 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 2: that Michael Waltz on Capitol Hill today, the President's former 375 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 2: National security advisor who I won't say was fired but 376 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 2: removed from that job, and it all followed the whole 377 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,880 Speaker 2: signal scandal that you might remember. Michael Waltz is now 378 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 2: the President's nominee for Ambassador to the United Nations and 379 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 2: That is the reason why he was on Capitol Hill 380 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 2: today a confirmation hearing to be the US Ambassador to 381 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 2: the UN. But everybody said when this was announced that 382 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 2: how could he survive such a blistering hearing the likes 383 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 2: of Chris Coons, Tim Kaine and other Democrats. We're going 384 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 2: to speak truth to power here delve into the signal 385 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 2: scandal that of course included revealing military attack plans, air strikes, 386 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 2: the timing and method of the air strikes that would 387 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 2: be used against houthy rebels. It was Mike Waltz that 388 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,360 Speaker 2: added a journalist from the Atlantic to that signal chat 389 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 2: that also included the Secretary of Defense and the Vice 390 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 2: President of the United States. I don't have to replay 391 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 2: this whole thing to you. This has been a coiled 392 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 2: spring for some time. We thought there'd be fireworks popping 393 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 2: off in the hearing. The aforementioned Chris Coons, Democrat from Delaware, 394 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 2: did tangle with Michael Waltz on this Let's listen. 395 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 11: You were sharing details about an upcoming airstrike and the 396 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 11: time of launch and the potential targets. I mean, this 397 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 11: was demonstrably sensitive information and the question I asked was 398 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 11: where you investigated for this expansion of the signal group 399 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 11: to include a journalist. 400 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,439 Speaker 12: The White House conducted an investigation, and my understanding is 401 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 12: the Department of Defense is still conducting an investigation. 402 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 11: Was any disciplinary action taken. 403 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 12: From the White House Investigation Center? Yes, No, the use 404 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 12: of signal was not only not authorized, is still authorized 405 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 12: and highly recommended. 406 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 2: Not only authorized, but highly recommended. That was kind of it. 407 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:15,159 Speaker 2: Tim Kaine had one question for him. Democrats seem to 408 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 2: have given up the ghosts on this whole scandal, and 409 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 2: maybe he will, in fact be the next US ambassador 410 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 2: to the UN. We assemble our political panel for their 411 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 2: take on this and a lot more. Genie Schanzano is 412 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 2: with US Bloomberg Politics contributor, Senior Democracy Fellow with the 413 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 2: Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. And 414 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 2: mor Gillespie is back, a Republican strategist, founder Blue Stack Strategies, 415 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 2: a veteran of John Bayner's Speaker's office in the House 416 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 2: of Representatives. Great to see you both, Welcome back. Of course, Jeanie, 417 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 2: did Democrats forget what a big deal this was a 418 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 2: couple of months ago. What happened today? 419 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 13: Yeah, it was about an hour in before we even 420 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 13: got those questions about signal Gate that we just heard 421 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,399 Speaker 13: from Chris Coons. They were focused on other issues that 422 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 13: are critically important. Most importantly, of course, our relationship with China, 423 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 13: so that that is critically important. They talked about Israel, 424 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 13: but they did wait a long time. And not only 425 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 13: were there only a few questions about Signalgate, but interestingly, 426 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 13: Senator Corey Booker didn't even ask any questions. He just 427 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 13: expressed his deep disappointment, he's not going to support Waltz, 428 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 13: and that was it. So I think we expected a 429 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 13: little bit more of them to take up the opportunity 430 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 13: to make some points for those all important campaign commercials 431 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 13: in twenty six. They didn't use this opportunity that way. 432 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,120 Speaker 2: So what's the lesson here? More time heals all scandals. 433 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 2: Because this was an outrage. It was the biggest story 434 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,199 Speaker 2: in the world when this broke. The screen grabs of 435 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 2: that signal chat had us talking for weeks, and today 436 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 2: this is what we got. 437 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 10: I am a little surprised at the lack of questioning around. 438 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 10: You know, did Mike Waltz know where Steve Woodkoff was 439 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 10: on that message change? Sure, of course, obviously the big 440 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,959 Speaker 10: question about the adding a reporter to a chain, But 441 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 10: I had concerns about the fact that Steve wik Koff 442 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,359 Speaker 10: was in Russia and these conversations were happening, and so 443 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,439 Speaker 10: that was one of my concerns, and I'm surprised that 444 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,160 Speaker 10: wasn't necessarily brought up. But I think what the takeaway 445 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 10: here is that Mike Waltz isn't the target. You know, 446 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 10: Pete Haig sets was the one that was putting out 447 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 10: the line by line war plans, and Pete Haig Seth 448 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 10: seems to be the target I think for Democrats that 449 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:32,400 Speaker 10: they wanted to have, you know, advertisements against a Trump 450 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 10: administration official in the future, that's going to be somebody 451 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 10: who they could actually galvanize their base and their voters 452 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 10: to be realized as a threat. Mike Waltz is a 453 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 10: decorated war veteran, he has had administration experience, so I 454 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 10: don't think that he's necessarily the person that they need 455 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,200 Speaker 10: to be going after in that regards. 456 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 2: Well, you know, look, it's interesting here if China is 457 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,639 Speaker 2: in fact the main topic for Democrats, Genie, that is 458 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 2: what they spent the most time on. Do Democrats trust 459 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 2: Mike Walls in this position to counter China. He talked 460 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 2: about going up against China as absolutely critical. China pushes 461 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 2: its personnel into roles at all levels, including bodies that 462 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,920 Speaker 2: set international standards. He says, it's absurd that China continues 463 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 2: to be treated as a developing nation. 464 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 3: These are ideas that democrats agree with. 465 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 2: Correct they are. 466 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 13: And you know, when I was listening to the testimony, 467 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 13: I was thinking back to you're really a good conversation 468 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:33,760 Speaker 13: yesterday with Senator Jean Shaheen, and she made a point 469 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 13: then and she made it again today during the hearing, 470 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:42,400 Speaker 13: which is that the administration's approach to China, despite all 471 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 13: the rhetoric, is incoherent. And she points to several things, 472 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 13: but one thing of the moment is that while this 473 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 13: hearing is going on, we are on the verge of 474 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 13: a vote on the Recisions Package, which would destroy USAID. 475 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,400 Speaker 13: And what China is doing so well right now, which 476 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 13: is something United States used to do, which is the 477 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:08,160 Speaker 13: exercise of soft power and diplomatic application of pressure and 478 00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 13: not terrifying our friends and allies. And so, Senator Shaheen, 479 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 13: both to you and Kaylee yesterday and importantly in the 480 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 13: hearing today made this point, and you know, Mike Waltz 481 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 13: had very little to come back with on any of 482 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 13: those points or the minority report released, which is the 483 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 13: fact that the administration's approach to China is scattered. And 484 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,119 Speaker 13: that's my word, not Senator Shaheen's. It is scattered, and 485 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,919 Speaker 13: we're running in several directions at the same time. And 486 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 13: I think that was reiterated more strongly today by Mike 487 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 13: Waltz's inability to respond to her than anything else I've 488 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 13: heard recently. 489 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 2: That's really interesting, moro, when you consider the cuts that 490 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:52,360 Speaker 2: have come to USAID that are included in this recisions package, 491 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:56,280 Speaker 2: the ability for America to wage the information war to 492 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 2: try to influence people outside of our borders. 493 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:00,640 Speaker 3: Does Genie have a point on this? 494 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,879 Speaker 10: Absolutely? And I do think that Mike Waltz is in 495 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,360 Speaker 10: a precarious position because he does obviously feel as though 496 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,119 Speaker 10: he's kind of on the chopping box still with the 497 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 10: Trump administration after the Signal Gate fallout, So how forward 498 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 10: he'd be about his position on the role of USAID. 499 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:20,439 Speaker 10: And truthfully, I think for many Americans and those in 500 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,200 Speaker 10: leadership and those who have had an administration experience, they 501 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 10: recognize that our usaid and you know, foreign aid is 502 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,439 Speaker 10: a diplomacy tool, and they could, you know, put that 503 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 10: under the umbrella of the Secretary of State and use 504 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,400 Speaker 10: it as a diplomacy tool because it is. It helps us, 505 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 10: like Janine said, like self power, right. But what Mike 506 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 10: Waltz has to do, he has a delicate dance to 507 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 10: do here because he doesn't want to go out publicly 508 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,480 Speaker 10: and speak out saying something that's maybe contractary what the 509 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 10: trendministration wants to say. But he knows the important role 510 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 10: in America players in the world, and so I do 511 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 10: have confidence that he knows that. How much he can 512 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 10: do currently, but it's hard to say, but for these 513 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 10: next few years he could do. I have more confidence 514 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 10: than that. 515 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 2: Well, Genie, I wonder if some of the Democrats in 516 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,760 Speaker 2: that hearing room today should have listened to Barack Obama 517 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 2: or maybe they were listening his comments at this fundraiser 518 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 2: the other night, pretty remarkable. This was a fundraiser, a 519 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 2: closed door fundraiser as these things go, that was put 520 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 2: together at the home of Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey, 521 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 2: a d NC fundraiser where the President said it's going 522 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 2: to require the former president a little less naval gazing 523 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 2: and a little less whining and being in the fetal position. 524 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 2: He's telling Democrats to toughen up, Genie. And he went 525 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 2: on to say that when he was president, progressives liberals 526 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 2: stood for all kinds of stuff. Who seem like they're 527 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 2: kind of now cowed and intimidated and shrinking away from 528 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 2: just asserting what they believe. Is that what we witnessed 529 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 2: today in the hearing. 530 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 13: You know, I don't think so I understand what the 531 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 13: former president is trying to do. He was particularly tough 532 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 13: in those comments on elite institutions, those outside of traditional 533 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 13: power in Congress, running the elite law firms and the 534 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 13: elite universities and others. He didn't mention some by name, 535 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 13: but clearly that was on his mind in terms of 536 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 13: their stepping back, accepting assuaging DONALDS. Trump's attacks on them. 537 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 13: The media as well, he was less I think tough 538 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 13: on some of those in elected office. So I'm not 539 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,440 Speaker 13: sure he was their primary target, but he is trying 540 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 13: to energize the base. And the timing here is very 541 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,719 Speaker 13: interesting because we have an election today which is going 542 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 13: to tell us a lot for a House seat of 543 00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 13: a member who passed away. 544 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 9: We have it in. 545 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 13: It's going to be in Arizona's seventh district, and you've 546 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 13: got to split there amongst progressives. And what's so interesting 547 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 13: about this is you've got some of the progressives like 548 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 13: Bernie Sanders on one side, and you've got some of 549 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 13: the other ones on the other side, who are of 550 00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 13: the younger I would say, David Hoggiety, who have made 551 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 13: their case for a more robust pushing back. And I 552 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,360 Speaker 13: think for people in Congress, those are the kind of 553 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 13: debates we're seeing, Not to mention my very own New 554 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 13: York City where we have a very progressive Mamdani versus 555 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 13: a still representative Adams and former Governor Pomo. So Democrats 556 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 13: are trying to iron this out at this point. 557 00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned that special primary today in Arizona. 558 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,160 Speaker 2: It is something that we're going to be watching genius 559 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 2: Democrats choose their nominee to succeed Ralu Grahalva. There's also 560 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 2: new polling out today more from the Fbizio group here 561 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 2: Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward. That is not good news 562 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:44,080 Speaker 2: for Republicans. On the midterm campaign trail, Republicans trailing on 563 00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 2: the generic ballot. Here in a survey of twenty eight 564 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 2: battleground House seats, including fifteen were Republicans won in twenty 565 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 2: twenty four by five points or less, and thirteen won 566 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 2: by both the Democratic House candidate and Trump. Among those 567 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 2: most motivated to vote, an early indication of vote likelihood 568 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 2: in the midterms, the Republican is down seven points. How 569 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:10,440 Speaker 2: do you turn that around between now and the midterms. 570 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 10: More Well, it's interesting because Republicans will have to decide 571 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 10: what benefits they get from staying in line and supporting 572 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 10: Trump's message if he can galvanize his voters to come out. 573 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 10: There's a big fracture right now amongst his own base. 574 00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 10: And so how much do they play up their allegiance 575 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 10: to Donald Trump or how much do they focus more 576 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,680 Speaker 10: on the district themselves, the constituents. We know that midterms 577 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 10: typically produce a lower turnout. It's not necessarily news that's 578 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 10: pretty unfortunately the standard. People just don't turn out from 579 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 10: midterms that they do in a general election and when 580 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 10: there's a presidential But that being said, these members do 581 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 10: need Given the fact that the House is such as 582 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,840 Speaker 10: the majority, it has been projected that Democrats will take 583 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 10: the gabble but within one big beautiful bill that messaging 584 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 10: Democrats are probably ripe to go ahead and campaign on 585 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 10: that because of his low approval rates. But again, I 586 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 10: think a big question for Republicans running for reelection is 587 00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 10: to decide do I stick with Trump and tout my allegiance, 588 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 10: or do I focus more on the people who I represent, 589 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 10: who I'm so hosted to be serving here and talk 590 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 10: about the issues that matter most to them, and less 591 00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:15,840 Speaker 10: focus on a president who's the blame. 592 00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 2: Duck Mora Gillespie and Jeanie Shanzano. Thanks for listening to 593 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 2: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if 594 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get 595 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 2: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday 596 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:37,200 Speaker 2: from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.