1 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: Well. In this episode of Newts World, we're continuing our 2 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: new series on the Road to the mid Terms, looking 3 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 1: more closely at the tightly contested house races across the country. 4 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: My guest today has been described by Nate Silver of 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,279 Speaker 1: five thirty eight as having quote the knowledge of the 6 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: knooks and crannies of political geography that can make him 7 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: seem like a local. He also predicted Trump would win 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: the White House in twenty sixteen. I read his columns 9 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: published and Cook Political Report regularly. I'm really pleased to 10 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: welcome my guests, David Wasserman. He is the senior editor 11 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 1: US House of Representatives for the Cook Political Report with 12 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: Amy Walter, where he is responsible for analyzing US House 13 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: races and is recognized as one of the nation's top 14 00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: election forecasters. David, thank you very much for joining. I 15 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 1: thought we might start by talking about the impact of 16 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty census data on redistricting and jerrymandering as 17 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: a relations to House racist You know, I was frankly 18 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: a little surprised. I thought the Democrats did better than 19 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: they should have given how the years started. But I'm curious, 20 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: what's your sense of how the census data affected the 21 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 1: election process. Well, as you know, this whole process takes 22 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: place in a few steps. First, there's the delivery of 23 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: the census data, and that happened last spring. We know 24 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: that six states are gaining seats and seven states are 25 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: losing seats, the biggest winners being Texas picking up two seats, 26 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: as well as Florida, Montana, Colorado, North Carolina, Oregon, and 27 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: California losing a seat for the first time since statehood. 28 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: But you know, Democrats looked at the census data and 29 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: they thought they'd come out ahead because, after all, rural 30 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: counties are losing population. Fifty two percent of America's county 31 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: has actually lost population of the last decade, and the 32 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 1: country is becoming less white. But what we've seen is 33 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 1: that the country's political equilibrium hasn't changed much in the 34 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: last ten years because Republicans have made enormous gains with 35 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: Hispanic voters in the last four years and that looks 36 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 1: to continue in twenty twenty two, which is why there 37 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 1: are a lot of formerly Democratic districts that are in 38 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: play in places like South Texas and the Central Valley 39 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: at California. It's been surprising to me, you know, there's 40 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: this belief among liberal Democrats the demography was destiny, and 41 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: as you pointed out, there's really been of steady rise. 42 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: It began briefly with Reagan and then sort of subsided, 43 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 1: then began a little bit more with George W. Bush, 44 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 1: but then in the Trump years the shift was dramatic. 45 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: And in some states Florida, Texas and two good examples, 46 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: the shift has really been remarkable. And I gather from 47 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: polling data right now that the unique situation in Nevada 48 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: where COVID shattered the casino industry and they still have 49 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 1: I think ten thousand unemployed casino workers. As a result. 50 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: If you think of the Latinos in Nevada as blue 51 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: collar workers rather than ethnically, they seem to be shifting 52 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 1: very dramatically in a way that could affect the center 53 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: race and the governorship and three house races. What is 54 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: your sense of what's happening in the Latino community. Well, 55 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: I think a couple of things. Democrats have misread Latino 56 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: voters as voting on identity, when in fact, if you'd 57 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 1: drilled down who voters are in South Texas, particularly in 58 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: the Rio Grand Valley, where Democrats still hold three seats 59 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: that are all quite vulnerable. They don't see themselves as 60 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 1: a minority. In counties that are ninety five Hispanic, they 61 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: identify as teachers or truckers, or oil and gas workers 62 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 1: or border patrol agents. And Title forty two is causing 63 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: Democrats huge problems right now in that area. So it's 64 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 1: a battleground to watch, you know. I wanted to touch 65 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 1: also just on the redistricting process quickly, because redistricting a 66 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:30,799 Speaker 1: couple months ago looked like it was going to benefit 67 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:35,279 Speaker 1: the Democrats. After all, they were able to jerrymander pretty 68 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 1: aggressively in Illinois, New York, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and 69 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 1: they got some favorable court rulings in North Carolina and 70 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania that struck down Republican jerrymanders there. They also benefited 71 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: from commission drawn maps in California, New Jersey. What we've 72 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 1: seen happen in the last couple of months is it's 73 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: basically come back to a wash because courts in Maryland 74 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: have struck down a Democrat jerrymander there, or we also 75 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 1: saw in Ohio, Republicans ran out the clock on court 76 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: challenges to their map in Florida Governor Rhonda Santis basically 77 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: overpowered his own legislature to pass a map that could 78 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: give Republicans four additional seats there, so we could be 79 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: looking at a modest Republican gain from redistricting, which is 80 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: quite a plot twist from a few months ago. I 81 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: have to confess I'm old fashioned enough that I remembered 82 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 1: when we began to finally learn how to redistrict, and 83 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: we made huge games just by learning how to work 84 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: at the legislative level. And of course part of that 85 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: was that starting with Reagan and then really reinforced in 86 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: ninety four of the Contract, we picked up huge advantages 87 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: and state legislatures. I mean, we were a party that 88 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: for a long time, as you know, was not very competitive, 89 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 1: and it wasn't just the House and Senate, but we 90 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 1: began I think we now have a significant margin among 91 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: state legislators and governors, and that has certainly changed the 92 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:03,919 Speaker 1: playing field from where it would have been twenty or 93 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: thirty years ago. Yeah, and we've moved into an era 94 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 1: when the way that lines are drawn is pretty much 95 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: the ball game. Because we've seen such a decline in 96 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: split ticket voting, there's not much elasticity in districts as 97 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 1: there was back when you were first elected. We basically 98 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 1: have no conservative Democrats left and no liberal Republicans. There's 99 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: not much crossover voting from the presidential level. And then 100 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:30,799 Speaker 1: on top of that, we've got a more geographically polarized 101 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: electorate between urban versus rural than we used to. And 102 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: when we've got a lot of eighty percent precincts and 103 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 1: counties out there, just a few boundary changes can make 104 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: the difference between a safe Republican seat and a safe 105 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: Democratic seat. So the trading range of what's competitive has 106 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: gone down quite a bit, and that has supercharged the 107 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: importance of the way the lines are drawn. So at 108 00:06:55,160 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: this point you have a general underlying tide that is 109 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 1: moving away from the Democrats towards the Republicans. And one 110 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: of these I want to ask you about, because this 111 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: fascinating to me. I don't know how much of this 112 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: tide is performance base. That is, you know, you go 113 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: out to the gas station, you go to the grocery store, 114 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: you watch the evening news about muggings and murders and carjackings, 115 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: or you watch the confusion on the border, and how 116 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: much of it is a value shift because if your 117 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: for example, a Catholic Hispanic family, a lot of the 118 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 1: most active elements the Democratic Party are sort of a 119 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:45,559 Speaker 1: direct assault on your value structure. How do you part 120 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: that when you're looking at it doing how much do 121 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: you think is a performance crisis for the Democrats and 122 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: how much of it is that becoming a highly educated 123 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: but pretty woke activist wing has actually begun to isolate 124 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: them from what would have been in an earlier period 125 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: a base Democrat blue collar vote. Yeah, you know, just 126 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, it looked like the Republican 127 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: base was shrinking demographically, but because of education polarization, I 128 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 1: would say it's the Democratic base that looks like it's 129 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: shrinking as a share of the electorate because it's been 130 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 1: driven so much by the politics of college campuses and 131 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: the elite forces in the Democratic Party that have shaped 132 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: the platform to be too far left for many voters 133 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: who used to support the party who were working class, 134 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 1: and that includes a number of Hispanic voters and even 135 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: a few African American voters. We saw Donald Trump performed 136 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: three points better with black voters in twenty twenty than 137 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: he did in twenty sixteen. When I visited the party 138 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: campaign committees last week and sat down with both party strategists, 139 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 1: culture issues were on the back burner to inflation. Really, 140 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: it's inflation that is foremost in voters minds right now 141 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: that is driving the Republican advantage in the midterms. And 142 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 1: there's no sign now that that's going to get any 143 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 1: better between now and November. No, and when you have 144 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: inflation at a forty year high, and on top of 145 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: that crime and border, you've got Republican ads that right themselves. 146 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: I just saw an article that said that Illinois could 147 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 1: be in played, New York could be in play, that 148 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: the Democratic governorships are just sort of fragmenting under the pressure. 149 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: Do you get that same sense that this could be 150 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 1: more than a Washington phenomena. We're going to see some 151 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: surprising upsets this November, I believe, and that could include 152 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: a few governor's races. Now, I don't think Illinois any 153 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 1: work will flip on the gubernatorial level, but we're certainly 154 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 1: going to see Republicans make a play for some House 155 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: seats that Democrats drew in those states that Democrats basically 156 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 1: thought they could put away through jerry mandering. But For example, 157 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: Illinois seventeenth District, the old Lane Evans seat where Jerry 158 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: Bustos is retiring. That district could flip the Republican with 159 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: Esther joy King, a female veteran. The thirteenth Congressional district 160 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: in downstate Illinois. That's a seat Democrats Jerry mattered from 161 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 1: the outskirts of Saint Louis all the way to Champagne 162 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: or Bana, and Republican Regan Deering could end up winning 163 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 1: that seat because the Democratic nominee there, Nikki Bazinski, had 164 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: worked in the past with Michael Madigan, the Illinois House 165 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 1: Speaker who was indicted. So there are isolated places where 166 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: we could see Republicans vastly overperformed because of the perceived 167 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: corruption or poor performance of state officials. The other place 168 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 1: I saw that it was almost startling was polling data 169 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: this last week out of Oregon, where apparently the constant 170 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: violence and demonstrations in Portland really have begun to turn 171 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: the state not necessarily Republican, but certainly anti incumbent, with 172 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: a very high percentage saying that Oregon is on the 173 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: wrong track, and that would be a real break in 174 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party's structure. If Oregon suddenly became competitive, well, 175 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 1: you know, Kate Brown and Oregon might be one of 176 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: the least popular governors in the country, at least accorded 177 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: in the morning console polling. And I would watch Oregon's 178 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 1: primaries in May because you've got a couple of House 179 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: seats there that could come into play. Pete Defasio, the 180 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: Democrat who chairs the Transportation and Infrastructure committees, retiring, and 181 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: Alex Scarlattos, who came within five points of beating him 182 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: last time. Here's the Paris Train hero a couple of 183 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,600 Speaker 1: years ago was running on the Republican side. And then 184 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 1: you've got a Democrat, a blue dog Democrat in the 185 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 1: fifth district, which is suburban Portland named Kurt Schrader, who 186 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:24,479 Speaker 1: could lose his primary to a pretty far left activist 187 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: named Jamie McCloud Skinner, which could give Republicans an opportunity 188 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: to pick up a seat in the Portland suburbs. And 189 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: not only in the suburbs of Portland, but also the 190 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: suburbs of Seattle and Denver. We're hearing Republicans run on 191 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: a message of don't let what's happening in these cities 192 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 1: come to this suburb and Republicans are gaining some in 193 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 1: traction with that message. In Colorado, I met with a 194 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:52,079 Speaker 1: Republican running in a double digit Biden seat who nonetheless 195 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 1: is polling quite competitively for a congressional race in suburban Denver. 196 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:01,200 Speaker 1: He's a PhD economist, a Republican, not really a Trump Republican, 197 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: but more of a moderate guy. He said that the 198 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 1: number one issue that he's going to run on is 199 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: a vote that his Democratic opponent took him the legislature 200 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: to decriminalize small amounts of fentinyl, and that in his ads, 201 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 1: he's going to directly tie that vote in the legislature 202 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 1: with seven hundred fentanyl deaths in the state in the 203 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: time since the bill was passed. You know, since I 204 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 1: am a right wing Republican, I may be approaching all 205 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: of this from a very biased angle. But the two 206 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: things I noticed most are the degree to which the 207 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 1: left wing of the Democratic Party is tolerant of drug 208 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: use and crime to a degree, fentinyl being a great case. 209 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:47,719 Speaker 1: I just visited a remarkable place called the Zone in 210 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 1: Marriott To, Georgia, where they basically are drug rehab and 211 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: in the two weeks before I visited in Cobb County alone, 212 00:13:56,080 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: there were six fentinyl related deaths. You look at these 213 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: numbers and you think, I mean, how could anybody favor 214 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: tolerance for fentmyl This is an enormous jump for marijuana 215 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: and it clearly kills people. And then the other thing is, 216 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: in two or three states now there are bills which 217 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: can legitimately be characterized as legalizing in fantasize, not just 218 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: legalizing abortion up to the last day, but at least, 219 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: based on some interpretations of the language, potentially legalizing killing 220 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: the baby up to a year after it's born. And 221 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: it just strikes me that represents views that are so 222 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 1: narrow that they can't possibly be sustained as the country 223 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: comes to understand them. And then you sort of have 224 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: a party that is drifting towards I think a pretty 225 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: sharp internal fight at some point in the next few 226 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: years between sort of a liberal but common sense wing 227 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: and a wing that is just really following its idea 228 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 1: logical imperative without any political consequence. I mean, do you 229 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: sense that same thing that there are specific actions beginning 230 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: to build where you can focus on those, and they 231 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 1: almost make it impossible to compete. You know the politics 232 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: of abortion are tricky this year. There are a couple 233 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: of components to why this is shaping up to be 234 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: a red tsunami this November. The first is, clearly, you 235 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: have just enormous Republican intensity. There's open hostility to Biden 236 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: that did not exist when he was a candidate for president. 237 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: That it really rivals the hostility Democrats felt towards Trump 238 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. But also, Biden wouldn't be at forty 239 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: one percent if some Democrats weren't demoralized. And Republicans right now, 240 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of them rate their interest in the 241 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: mid terms as a nine or ten out of ten, 242 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: according to the latest NBC News poll, compared to just 243 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 1: fifty percent of Democrats. Now, let's say that the Supreme 244 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 1: Court takes action on Roe v. Wade by the end 245 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: of its term in October. If I had to imagine 246 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: a scenario for Democrats to close that enthusiasm gap somewhat, 247 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: it would be a Supreme Court action overturning that. So 248 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: could that cut into Republican gains If Democratic intensity rises 249 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 1: from its current state of lethargy. It could, But it 250 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 1: really depends on the state and what state legislatures propose 251 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: in the wake of such a ruling. It's interesting that 252 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 1: it takes a well for that to work its way through. 253 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: And of course you do a number of states now 254 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: that are adopting limitations based on number of weeks and 255 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: that sort of thing. And I haven't seen any internal 256 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: post to indicate whether that's helping or hurting the Republicans 257 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: who are doing it. And those are pretty conservative states. 258 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: But still, if it were going to arouse a base, 259 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: you probably would see in Mississippi or Texas or I 260 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: think Alabama, some kind of reaction. I know, a modern 261 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: amount about the House, as you can imagine, being a 262 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 1: good creature of the House, I find the Senate mystifying, 263 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: and I think there's a general consensus that the Republicans 264 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 1: are likely to be a majority in the House, but 265 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: more uncertaintly about the Senate. What's your sense about how 266 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 1: all this plays out in center races? You know, I 267 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: think if the election were held next week, Republicans would 268 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 1: basically sweep the entire competitive battlefield and take a fifty 269 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 1: four to forty six majority in the Senate and probably 270 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 1: gain thirty seats of the House. It's just that bad 271 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 1: for Democrats now do I think they'll actually pick up 272 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 1: four seats. I predict that Republicans will find a way 273 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: to screw up at least two of the seven most 274 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 1: competitive races in the Senate. We've seen it happened time 275 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: again in the last ten years. But there are really 276 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: seven that we'd considered part of the core battleground, and 277 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: those are Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, which are currently 278 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 1: held by Republicans too, of whom we are retiring the 279 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 1: Democratic held seats of Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada. 280 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: I think it is probably the most vulnerable Democratic seat 281 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: of the four for the reasons you stated earlier, and 282 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: Republicans have a pretty good candidate there in Adam Laxall 283 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 1: in Georgia. You tell me as herschel Walker going to 284 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: survive the scrutiny of the next six months. I spent 285 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: three hours with him recently, and I have to say 286 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: he is so much smarter than the elites think he is, 287 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 1: and so much more than a football player. And as 288 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 1: Apollo just came out that shows him way ahead of Warnot. 289 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: And I think he's said sixty two or sixty three 290 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: percent in the primary against like five people. So my 291 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 1: hunch is that he'll win, and he'll win in part 292 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 1: just because he's the most famous athlete in Georgia history. 293 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: He's got a good story to tell, and he doesn't 294 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: rattle very much. I mean, Jack Kemp, he said this 295 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: great poster on the wall in his office. I was 296 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: life size poster and it was of a defensive tackle 297 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: who was six foot ten, who was physically off the 298 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 1: ground above Kemp when his arms stretched out and he 299 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: was about to land on Kemp. And Kemp was calmly 300 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,399 Speaker 1: looking down the field and passing with this guy just 301 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: about to crush him. And Jackie used to always say 302 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,959 Speaker 1: to me, you know, and that happens to you. Nothing 303 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 1: in politics seems all that hard. And I think there's 304 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: a certain degree to which, as a guy who's extremely competitive, 305 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: that Walker is probably going to be more than Okay, 306 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 1: I hadn't realized all this. But not only was he 307 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: Heisman Trophy winning football player, he was an All American 308 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 1: track star. He was in the Winter Olympics, and he 309 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: was a martial arts champion, and then he ended up 310 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: running a nationwide company that marketed chickens and he had 311 00:19:56,320 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: visited something like four hundred and eighty military inst relations 312 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:06,919 Speaker 1: in his career, talking about concussions, PTSD, how do you 313 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: live your life, which gave him a range of international travel. 314 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 1: I had no notion of and until we sat and 315 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 1: just compared notes and talked about things. My hunches that 316 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: he'll be astonishing and frankly, if he wins, and if 317 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: the former Speaker of the House wins in Oklahoma, and 318 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: of course if Tim Scott gets re elected, which I 319 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 1: think everybody expects, you would actually have more African American 320 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: Republican Senators than Democrats, which would certainly be a narrative 321 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 1: nobody could have predicted. You're absolutely right. And I walked 322 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 1: into the mixer for reporters and the Republican Young Gun Lineup, 323 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 1: which is the group of House Republican candidates endorsed by 324 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: the NRCC or supported by House leadership. And when I 325 00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: walked into that room, it looked like it could have 326 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: been that Democrats read to blue gathering from twenty eighteen. 327 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 1: You had John James and Michigan, you had Juan Siskamani 328 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: in Arizona. They had a lot of women running on 329 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: the Republican side. In fact, you know this. All sixteen 330 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: of the Republicans who flipped Democratic seats in twenty twenty 331 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 1: in the House were women and or minorities. I think 332 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: it speaks well of Kevin McCarthy. They asked me to 333 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 1: come and be the keynote speaker at their planning retreat 334 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 1: for about one hundred and eighty Compass and I stayed 335 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: over to watch the leadership and they really were emphasizing 336 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 1: that this is a base broadening year. McCarthy's phrases, this 337 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 1: is a time to increase market share. So I think 338 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:46,439 Speaker 1: that there's a driving, serious effort across the conference to 339 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: bring in minorities and women and literally change the face 340 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: of the Republican Party. And that would deflate Democrats badly 341 00:21:56,119 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: when it comes to their identity argument, right, and so 342 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: in a year like this, what do Democrats do to 343 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,159 Speaker 1: try to hang on? And what you're seeing is a 344 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 1: lot of Democrats are trying to localize their races to 345 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:14,719 Speaker 1: blunt the macro. You've got people like Elaine Lauria in 346 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: Virginia Beach who are pointing to opposing Biden on decommissioning 347 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 1: Navy ships. They've got a list of Slopkin in Michigan. 348 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: The only way she can try and win is by 349 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: pointing to a vote her opponent took in the legislature 350 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 1: against bringing a GM plant to the district. Or you've 351 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 1: got a number of vulnerable Democrats who are battling their 352 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: own President Biden over Title forty two on immigration. So overall, 353 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 1: it's really tough for Democrats to motivate their own base 354 00:22:45,080 --> 00:23:08,120 Speaker 1: and to get enough independence to win. You know, I've 355 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 1: been at this a long time, and whichever party is 356 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: in a bad year is the party that decides local 357 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 1: elections really matter. And in the end, they never do. 358 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: If you start to get a tsunami, people lose. Like 359 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 1: when we beat Ways the News Chairman Danny Rostenkowski in 360 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,919 Speaker 1: downtown Chicago. Nobody would have guessed that was coming, and 361 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: you just have the sudden moment of My favorite example 362 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 1: for people is led Duart Junior, an independent Trucker, ran 363 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 1: against State Senate President Stephen Sweeney, who had won the 364 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 1: largest state legislative race in the country four years ago 365 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 1: seventeen million dollars. Door spent twenty three hundred dollars, almost 366 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 1: all of it at Dunkin Donuts on donuts and coffee 367 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 1: for his volunteers. But the fact was, when people walked 368 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: in the booth, they didn't vote for they voted against 369 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: the state Senate president. And when you get that kind 370 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 1: of a tsunami, people suddenly started getting beat that you 371 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: could never predict and that you have to just wait 372 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 1: until the wreckage is done. And if that momentum bills. 373 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: I've lived through nights like that, it has to be 374 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,360 Speaker 1: a really long night. Virginia, New Jersey are pretty good 375 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 1: harbing Jersey going back thirty years, can you point to 376 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 1: any year when the mid term result has been much 377 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,160 Speaker 1: different from what we saw the year before in Virginia 378 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: New Jersey? And in nineteen ninety three George Allen. Next 379 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: year you take back the House. Twenty seventeen, Ralph Northam 380 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 1: and Phil Murphy win and you have a Democratic sweep 381 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 1: of the House. Well, this time around, it was a 382 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 1: pretty clear verdict when you had Glenn young Ken winning 383 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: by two in a state Biden had won by ten, 384 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: and you had Phil Murphy only hang on by three 385 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: in a state Biden one by sixteen. So if you 386 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 1: were to apply those twelve and thirteen point swings to 387 00:24:55,240 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: the entire Congress in November you'd have Republicans picking up 388 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: four Senate seats and almost picking up Colorado and picking 389 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 1: up forty seven House seats. That just gives a sense 390 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 1: of the magnitude of the change in the environment we've 391 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: seen the last year and a half. Yeah, when you 392 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: watch the Young Can campaign, what was your sense of 393 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: their effectiveness in broadening their appeal beyond where a traditional 394 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,200 Speaker 1: Republican would have been. Well, there is a genius move 395 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 1: on the part of the Young Can campaign, and that 396 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 1: was to focus on the grocery tax in Virginia. Clearly, 397 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 1: the Republican base was fired up over CRT and buy 398 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 1: it in and all the rest of it. He didn't 399 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 1: need to do much to pump up that energy, but 400 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 1: he needed a critical massive independence and some Democrats who 401 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 1: are on the lower income end of the spectrum to 402 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:51,400 Speaker 1: see him as more of a nonpartisan guy, someone who 403 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: was more of a mid Romney than a Donald Trump. 404 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: And he used the grocery tax issue to great effect, 405 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,919 Speaker 1: I think, to tie Democrats to inflation. And what was 406 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 1: so striking about not only that and the education issue, 407 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 1: was that every time Terry mccauliffe tried to talk about it, 408 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 1: the reaction for voters was well, why didn't you already 409 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 1: do that when you were a governor over the four 410 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 1: year term you had, so the time for change message 411 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 1: was really effective. I can't remember has any Virginia governor 412 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:31,360 Speaker 1: ever been reelected in the modern era? Well, Virginia governors 413 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,679 Speaker 1: are only eligible to run for one term, but in 414 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 1: that period has come back. The only Virginia governors who 415 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 1: have been elected to an additional term since eighteen thirty 416 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 1: were William Smith and Mills Godwin. But Terry mcculliffe is 417 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: now one for three in Virginia governor toorial issues, and 418 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 1: I suspect this was the last for all that we 419 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,639 Speaker 1: just saw. I'm curious when election night comes up, and 420 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,360 Speaker 1: you're so knowledgeable about this, if such a good sense 421 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 1: of how it all works, where will you be paying 422 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 1: attention on election night? So there are a couple of 423 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,439 Speaker 1: different regions that we're going to be watching closely in 424 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 1: the house. You know. I mentioned South Texas, and I 425 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 1: would pay attention to three names on the Republican side there. 426 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 1: First of all, Cassie Garcia in the twenty eighth district. 427 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: These are all Hispanic women who are running on the 428 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:23,640 Speaker 1: Republican side, and then Monica Della Cruz in the fifteenth district. 429 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: That's a seat that was redrawn to be more Republican 430 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 1: and the Democrat has fled to run an neighboring seat. 431 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,200 Speaker 1: And then the toughest district of all of them is 432 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 1: the thirty fourth district in Brownsville, where you've got perhaps 433 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: the most appealing Republican candidate. And Myra Flora, as a 434 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: respiratory care practitioner, has treated COVID patients, is married to 435 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,439 Speaker 1: a Border patrol agent. She's going to win a special 436 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 1: election for the unexpired term of a Democrat who's left 437 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 1: the House early to take a lobbying job, philam Unvela. 438 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,120 Speaker 1: And so when that happens in June, I think that's 439 00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 1: going to be a national wake up call to what's 440 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:04,119 Speaker 1: happening this year, particularly with Hispanics. A one more question 441 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 1: for it, is Jake Evans going to win your seat? 442 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 1: I hope. So We've done three fundraisers for him. He's 443 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 1: a terrific talent. He has a little bit of a 444 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 1: challenge because McCormick hauld run in part of the district 445 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 1: and had a certain level of name I d but 446 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,440 Speaker 1: I think they have two or three things. McCormick also 447 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,359 Speaker 1: had voted in both Florida and Georgia the same year, 448 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 1: and they have a couple of other things like that, 449 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 1: and McCormick has gotten the never trumpers to fund him, 450 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 1: and so for some reason Trump has been skittish about 451 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: that particular race, which is frankly a great puzzlement to me, 452 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 1: because Jake is totally conservative solid. He and his wife 453 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: are amazingly attracting couple. They sort of fit the Kevin 454 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: McCarthy model of the future. So if I had to bet, 455 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 1: I would probably bet that Jake will win, and I'm 456 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 1: starting doing all I can to help him. I want 457 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 1: you to know that I've always read your material. I 458 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 1: think it's amazing, and of course I go back with 459 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 1: Cook for a long, long, long way. He and I 460 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 1: basically came to the city about the same time. So 461 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 1: the whole Cook political operation has been remarkable, and you're 462 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 1: a key player in it, and I really want to 463 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 1: thank you for taking this time. I am going to 464 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 1: encourage everybody who here's this to go to the Cook 465 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 1: Political Report at Cook political dot com and click on 466 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 1: the subscribe now button, because if you have an interest 467 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 1: in a detailed sense of what's happening around the country. 468 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 1: There are a few sources that are more effective and 469 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,959 Speaker 1: more accurate, So I really appreciate you taking the time 470 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 1: and coming and joining us and sharing with us your 471 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: insights into what's going to be I think a historic 472 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 1: year that may have some permanent changes in the shape 473 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 1: of power in America. It's an honor to be on. 474 00:29:55,720 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: Thanks dude, Thank you to my guest David Wasser. You 475 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 1: can get a link to the cook political report on 476 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: our show page at newtsworld dot com. News World is 477 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 1: produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer 478 00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 1: is Garnsey Slump, our producer is Rebecca Howell, and our 479 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was 480 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:28,239 Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at 481 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,720 Speaker 1: Gingwidge three sixty. If you've been a joining Newsworld, I 482 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us 483 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 484 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 485 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 1: news World can sign up from my three three weekly 486 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 1: columns at Gangwish three sixty dot com. Slash newsletter I'm 487 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 1: new Gangwish. This is newts World.