1 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank 2 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: you for being here again. I really have to just 3 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: take a minute and thank everybody who listens to this 4 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 1: podcast religiously. July was my best month so far. It 5 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: was better than June, which is better than May. Every month. 6 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,800 Speaker 1: The show is growing, and I'm really building the show 7 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 1: with you and for you, and I want to thank 8 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:25,119 Speaker 1: you for spending ninety minutes a week with me. I 9 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: genuinely truly appreciate it from the bottom of my heart. 10 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: If you want to help me continue to grow this podcast, 11 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: please like and subscribe if you feel very generous, give 12 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: me a review on Apple or Spotify, orever you listen 13 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: to this podcast, So just thank you, all right. The 14 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 1: theme of this episode is I've been thinking a lot 15 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: about Zoram Mandani and his rise and the anxiety is 16 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: fueling left wing populism. Now part of that is fueled 17 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: by race based ideology, right. You see the people who 18 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: brazenly push left wing racism, people like Sonny Haustin from 19 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: the view who's like the most openly racist person on television, 20 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: or Joy Read formerly from MSNBC, where everything in her 21 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 1: eyes was based on race and all laws should be 22 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: used for promote anti white racism. And while those people 23 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: are black and so specifically two people, a lot of 24 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 1: people who do promote this kind of stuff are white, 25 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: and they have this shared ideology that is anti white racism. 26 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: There's also those who are just mindwashed, people who are 27 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 1: brainwashed rather brainwashed completely, and they just believe in things 28 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: like releasing criminals and redistributing wealth and legalizing drugs and 29 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: pushing critical gender theory that's transing the kids. I remember, 30 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty three, there was a man named 31 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: Ryan who lived a couple miles from me. His name 32 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:45,039 Speaker 1: is Ryan Carson. And despite having a lot on paper 33 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: that we are similar on, we're both around the same age, 34 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: we're both white guys, you know have We lived within 35 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: a few miles of each other, our names were both Ryan. 36 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: We were a world apart politically. Ryan Carson was an 37 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: Antifa activist who had just genuine hate in his heart 38 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: for conservatives in a way that I don't have for 39 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: democrats or progressives. He tweeted celebratory messages when rush Limba died. 40 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: When the BLM riots destroyed police stations, he called police 41 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 1: sub human. He just was bathed in far left ideology 42 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 1: over policing and race. And on October fourth, twenty twenty three, 43 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,839 Speaker 1: at four am, he saw a young black man having 44 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 1: a psychotic breakdown. This is the kind of man who, 45 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 1: in a normal society should have been in a mental hospital, 46 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: whether he liked it or not. And Ryan approached the 47 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: man trying to help him, and instead of just calling 48 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: the police, and the man responded by stabbing Ryan Carson 49 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: to death in front of his girlfriend. Friends of Ryan 50 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: Carson responded by saying that he would have felt sorry 51 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: for the killer even after the crime and viewed him 52 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,239 Speaker 1: as just a victim of a broken system. But Ryan 53 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 1: Carson was in fact the victim of a of not 54 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: just a cold blooded killer, but of a broken system. 55 00:02:54,280 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: He was bathed in victimhood. Ideology of liberalism was to 56 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: and he believed the lie of race and poverty in crime. 57 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: And he just was a broken person or broken system. 58 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: You can't help those kinds of people, you know. Even 59 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 1: after he was murdered, his girlfriend, who was witnessed his murder, 60 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: campaign for Zora Mandani because she was equally as brainwashed. 61 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: She's going to create more victims like Ryan Carson, and 62 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: she doesn't view what she's doing as being, you know, 63 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: negative towards the community at all. She thinks what she's 64 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: doing is healthful for people who are poor, people who 65 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: are who need policemen, people who need the system to work. 66 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: You genuinely have to just kind of let those people go. 67 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 1: They're not capable of winning, and you just have to 68 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: make sure those kinds of people never hold genuine political power, 69 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: which might happen in New York City, and that's horrifying. 70 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: But that's not all them. A lot of these new 71 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: supporters who are in their teens and twenties and even 72 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: in my generation in their thirties, they're not all blue hairs. 73 00:03:58,120 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 1: They don't you know, they don't only have blue hair. 74 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: They don't all dream of defunding the police. Some are 75 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: just really angry at long standing obstacles to achieve the 76 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: American dream. And I might make this a longer series 77 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: in the podcast and break it down issue by issue, 78 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: But some of the things that come off the top 79 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: of my head that are driving people to join progressive 80 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: populist movements are things like housing and healthcare and the 81 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: cost of education. If we're being totally honest with ourselves, 82 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: Republicans and conservatives haven't done enough to properly explain why 83 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: prices in these areas have gotten so out of hand, 84 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: and realistic public policy can address them. For today's episode, 85 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: I want to talk about housing specifically, and let's talk 86 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 1: with some numbers so we're all on the same page. 87 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis and 88 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: the website Zillow, which tracks us, the average home price 89 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,799 Speaker 1: in the United States in twenty twenty five was five 90 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: hundred and twelve eight hundred dollars. Now, of course, that's 91 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: not the same everywhere, right. If you look at the 92 00:04:56,480 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 1: top twenty five metropolitan areas, the average is lightly higher 93 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: at five hundred and forty six thousand, two hundred, and 94 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: that's really weighted down heavily by some very inexpensive metropolitan 95 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: areas like Detroit, where the average home price is two 96 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty four thousand, Saint Louis it's two hundred 97 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 1: and sixty two thousand, and Euston is three hundred and 98 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: thirty seven thousand. Houston is an interesting case study because 99 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 1: it's virtually no zoning laws allowing for massive construction. You know, 100 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 1: you could have a a strip club, next to a 101 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: gun shop, next to a church, next to an apartment building, 102 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 1: next to a single family house on one block if 103 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: you wanted to. It's also the third largest city geographically 104 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: in size. I think the only two that I don't 105 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 1: think I know the only two that have a larger 106 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: physical size with a population of over one hundred thousand 107 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 1: people are Anchorage, Alaska and Jacksonville. It's an immense physical 108 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 1: piece of land, so there's a lot of places to build, 109 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: and you can find neighborhoods like South Belt Ellington where 110 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: homes on the market can go for as low as 111 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty two thousand dollars, or Astrodome Area, 112 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: which is even cheaper than that, but it's nowhere near 113 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 1: midtown Houston. Areas like Westmoreland will run you close to 114 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: a million dollars. Other areas like Katie, the Woodlands, river 115 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: Oaks are equally as expensive, if not even more expensive. 116 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: But I want to get to Houston in a little 117 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 1: bit because I think it's an important case study about 118 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: how to drive down housing prices in the way that 119 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,479 Speaker 1: a lot of libertarians that they're and say this is 120 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: the answer to our problems. But let's get back to 121 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 1: the numbers nationwide are there is a housing shortage in America, 122 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: but it's unclear on how much that shortage is depending 123 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: on who you ask. According to the National Association of Realtors, 124 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: that numbers two point five million units, so we're short 125 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,119 Speaker 1: two point five million units. Freddy max is three point 126 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: seven million, Zilo says it's four point five million, The 127 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: Brookings Institute says it's actually four point nine million, and 128 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: American Enterprise Institute says six million. So it really runs 129 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,599 Speaker 1: the gamut from two point five million to six million. 130 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: Now let's just call it, say it's four to four 131 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: to point five million. Let's say Zillo is the most correct. 132 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: Why don't we just build more houses? That seems like 133 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: the obvious answer. Well, we do build a lot of 134 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: houses in America from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, 135 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 1: an average of one point four to six four million. 136 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: One point four to six four million new homes. We're 137 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: being in construction every single year. But the US needs 138 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: one point six million to address the housing shortage, according 139 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: to the estimate by the National Association of Realtors. And 140 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 1: remember that's the group that said there's only two point 141 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: five million. If you go with Zillo or Freddie Mack 142 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: or the Brookings Institute number, you need closer to two 143 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: million new homes every year. Clearly, this is a supply issue, 144 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: and and you know when demand outstrip supply, prices go up. 145 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: Over the last fifteen years, home prices have gone up 146 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: one hundred and one percent in the top twenty metropolitan areas. 147 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: During the same period, hourly wages have gone up only 148 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: thirty three percent nationally in about forty percent in those 149 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: top twenty metropolitan areas. So prices for houses for homes 150 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: are growing more than twice the weight of wages. I 151 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: got into a huge debate with my brother about this 152 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: the other day. We were texting NonStop, and he was saying, 153 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: is actually that disposal income is growing on par with 154 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: home median home prices? And he pointed to Chad Gpt, 155 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: which is this is why I hate AI. Chad Gpt 156 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: said that home median home prices had grown fourteen times 157 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 1: over since nineteen sixty nine to twenty nineteen, while disposal 158 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:38,319 Speaker 1: income income grew thirty thirteen point two seven times over. Now, 159 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 1: that's one answer is why home prices are growing. And 160 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 1: I think it's sophomoric, but it's there. It's just that 161 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: we have more disposal income, so therefore, you know, home 162 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: prices are going up. But I think that's I think 163 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 1: you can't argue from that standpoint because it's too long 164 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: of a time period, and we essentially have been two 165 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,959 Speaker 1: different countries by that period. When you wait inflation in especially, 166 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: and you look at real disposal income from two thy 167 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 1: to twenty twenty five, real disposal income has only grown 168 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: by forty nine percent, while home prices have grown by 169 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: eighty four percent, So it's a much much different number. 170 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: Another argument, aside from home price is growing in line 171 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: with disposal income and the housing supply shortage, you know 172 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: what else is causing home prices to grow? What else 173 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: are the other two other other major issues aside from that, Well, 174 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,080 Speaker 1: part of the answer could be that the cost of 175 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: building a home has risen so much. The cost to 176 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: build a new home is up twenty percent since twenty twenty. 177 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 1: It's partially because of the labor costs have gone up, 178 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 1: which will come down as the industry continues to mechanize, 179 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,680 Speaker 1: but we're not there yet. But the other part is inflation. 180 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: The dollar is weaker in value as far as purchasing 181 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 1: power goes, and it's down significantly since COVID. According to 182 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 1: the Saint Louis Fed from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, 183 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: the dollar has lost about twenty percent of its nomine 184 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: purchasing power. That means one hundred dollars in twenty twenty 185 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: is worth about eighty three dollars and thirty three cents 186 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. Then there's the issue of zoning. 187 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: Most single family homes in America are built in areas 188 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: that you can't up zone, and it's very difficult, meaning 189 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: that you can't have like a twenty story apartment building 190 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 1: where a one family house currently exists in most cities 191 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: in this country. Now, this is the argument that progressives 192 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: and libertarians love the most to talk about. We have 193 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 1: to word of zoning, We have to word of zoning. 194 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: We have to get rid of zoning. You will hear 195 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 1: them say this till they're blue in the face. Progressives 196 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: love this idea because it means you can flood cheaper 197 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 1: housing in mostly pristine suburb areas or mostly pristine areas 198 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: of cities where people spend generations maintaining a good quality 199 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: of life and good schools. To them, those places like 200 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 1: the suburbs are the great evil in society because they're 201 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: usually whiter, they're wealthier, they have better school systems. It's 202 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 1: just it's capitalism and whiteness, and every bad thing in 203 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 1: one bubble is marked up in zoning laws. For libertarians 204 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 1: and the free market ILK and the GOP, it's the 205 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 1: chance to maximize growth and profits and desirable areas where 206 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: single family homes exist. And because they don't care about 207 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: maintaining cultural integrity or the fabric of society that generations 208 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 1: spend time building, why not destroy it. That's the libertarian argument. 209 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 1: I mean libertarians. I'll say this, growth for the sake 210 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: of growth is the ideology of cancer cells and libertarians. 211 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: They are equally on the same playing field when it 212 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: comes to that. But what we haven't talked about, and 213 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: what most people will not talk about, is the demand side. Now. 214 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: I hate to be the guy who constantly brings up 215 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: immigration all the time, but it is a key factor 216 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 1: in our housing crisis. From twenty twenty to twenty twenty five, 217 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: the US both eight point four to five million new homes, 218 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: while the population saw a natural increase of three point 219 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: sixty six million people, three point sixty six million people, 220 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: eight point four to five million homes. Housing prices should 221 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: be declining, But that's where immigration comes in. Immigration plays 222 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: a huge factor. Between twenty twenty and twenty twenty five, 223 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: four point seven million foreigners received legal permanent residence. That's 224 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: legal immigration, it's not illegal. That's nothing to do with 225 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 1: illegal immigration. That's legal immigrants. Four point seven million over 226 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: four and a half years. Then during Biden's presidency, you 227 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: add the four point five million illegal aliens who enter 228 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 1: the country, plus the known godaways, which is as many 229 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 1: as two million, plus those who are here on a 230 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: visa system, and you get a housing shortage. And while 231 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: they're not all buying homes, they're going somewhere. They have 232 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 1: to runs an apartment, they have to live somewhere. They 233 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 1: can't all live on living in tents on the street. 234 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 1: They're living in somebody's home somewhere, or they're buying a home. 235 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 1: And that's just the foreigners living in the US, foreigners 236 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: owning homes in the US who don't live here right, 237 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: people who are I spent I spent one time to 238 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 1: one hundred and sand as his team, and they told 239 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: me that there's hundreds of thousands of homes in Florida 240 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: that are owned by Canadians who vacation there in the summer. Overall, 241 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: between one point one to two point six percent of 242 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: all home purchases between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four 243 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: were made by non US citizens who don't live in America. 244 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: So one point one to two point six is not 245 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 1: the main driving factor as to why home prices are increasing, 246 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 1: but it is certainly a secondary factor. It's certainly especially 247 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 1: a factor in high desirable destinations like major cities like 248 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: Miami and New York or where people vacation in Florida. 249 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 1: There's certainly something there. And there are other factors too, 250 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: like the number of corporations purchasing homes, and there's a 251 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 1: lot to discuss with it. So I brought on an 252 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: amazing guest who really is an expert in the field, 253 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: and he's going to come on next to talk about 254 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,719 Speaker 1: what's driving the housing crisis, what's driving the increase in 255 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: housing prices, and how we can fix it. Coming up next, 256 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,719 Speaker 1: our guest on today's episode is ej Antoni. He is 257 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: the chief economist for the Heritage Foundation, and he knows 258 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 1: a lot about housing, so he's the guy to talk 259 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 1: to for this episode. EJ. Things for coming on the podcast. 260 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 2: It's my pleasure. Thank you for having me. 261 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: So I started off this podcast talking about the issue 262 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: of housing as it comes to politics. Right, the left 263 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: is really mobilized a lot of voters, especially urban voters, 264 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 1: over the idea that housing is too expensive, it's hard 265 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: to find a good house, and there's really been a 266 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: decline and center of living over the issue of housing. 267 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: So what I want to ask you is over the 268 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: topics that people blame as being the remain driver of housing, 269 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: and you could kind of explain if it is, if 270 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,479 Speaker 1: it isn't, how much is contributing, So the first being inflation, 271 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: both the cost of building a house and the devaluation 272 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 1: of our currency, of the purchasing power of recurrency from 273 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: you overspending by the government. 274 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 2: Sure, sure, it's important. And to keep in mind when 275 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 2: we talk about inflation, is not just the impact that 276 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 2: inflation has on rents on home prices, right, But then 277 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 2: we also have to consider what is the impact of 278 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 2: what caused the inflation, and we can get to that 279 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 2: in a second. So if we just look at the 280 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 2: inflation itself. Real quick Inflation as a monetary phenomenon is 281 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 2: simply a devaluing of the currency. So now it just 282 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 2: takes more of the currency to buy whatever it is 283 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 2: you're trying to buy. In that regard, inflation affects housing 284 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 2: just as much as it affects everything else. So, by 285 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 2: the official metrics, over the course of about four years, 286 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 2: the dollar lost twenty percent, or a fifth of its 287 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 2: value roughly. If you use some nonofficial metrics that include 288 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 2: other measures of purchasing power, the decrease is actually substantially 289 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 2: more than that. It's closer to thirty percent over the 290 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 2: course of four years. But whatever the case, that's inflation. 291 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 2: But you have to ask what caused the inflation, and 292 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 2: you already alluded to that the increase in government spending. 293 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: How was that increase in government spending actually accommodated by 294 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 2: the central bank? And the answer there is twofold, because 295 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 2: the central bank not only simply created money for the 296 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 2: government to spend, right, the government went out there and 297 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 2: bought all of these treasury bonds for example, or treasury bills, 298 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 2: treasury notes, whatever the case may be. They were buying 299 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 2: treasury securities in order to take that off of the 300 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 2: hands of private dealers like banks, so that banks then 301 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 2: had the liquidity to buy more government debt, so it 302 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 2: was an indirect purchase, you could say. However, in order 303 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 2: to facilitate this, they also had to keep interest rates 304 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 2: incredibly low, which also meant that the borrowing costs for 305 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 2: the treasury were incredibly low. In other words, the yields 306 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 2: on treasury again, bills, notes, bonds, everything, the yields on 307 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 2: all that treasury debt plummet, but those low yields were 308 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:08,880 Speaker 2: not isolated to treasury markets. The whole quantitative versus qualitative 309 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,159 Speaker 2: theory of credit is very very clear in that you 310 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 2: can never just create one kind of credit and mass 311 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 2: and then not expected to filter out through other kinds 312 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 2: of credit to the rest of the economy. This was 313 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 2: most infamously, perhaps illustrated in the late nineteen twenties and 314 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 2: ultimately helped cause the Great Depression. But you saw that 315 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,879 Speaker 2: again with the FED creating all of this money for 316 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 2: the government to spend and pushing down yields on treasuries 317 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 2: again to facilitate government borrowing. The result of that, the 318 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 2: spillover of that, I guess you could say, though, was 319 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,919 Speaker 2: the fact that interest rates on things like mortgages plummeted. 320 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 2: I mean they went to essentially never before seen levels. 321 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 2: That was also exacerbated by the fact that the FED 322 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 2: wasn't just buying treasury securities. They were also buying mortgage 323 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 2: back back securities or mbs as we commonly call them. 324 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 2: That was something that the FED started in the wake 325 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 2: of the global financial crisis and the mortgage meltdown. Everything 326 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 2: that really started teeing off in two thousand and five 327 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 2: but bottomed out in two thousand and nine, and ever 328 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 2: since that period, the FED has had a certain amount 329 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 2: of mbs on its books it never did previously. By 330 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 2: purchasing all of those mortgage backed securities, the FED increase 331 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 2: the demand for those mortgage back securities. Well what's the 332 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,959 Speaker 2: effect of that. If you increase the demand for that 333 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 2: kind of financial derivative, you also increase the demand for 334 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 2: the underlying asset, which would be mortgages. So if there's 335 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 2: an increase in demand for mortgages, what's the incentive as 336 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,679 Speaker 2: somebody who's let's say a bank, you're a lender, you 337 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 2: want to create mortgages, Well, now you have an increased 338 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 2: incentive to do that. 339 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 1: So in latent terms, for those who are not economists 340 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 1: like myself, the low interest rates over a longer period 341 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 1: of time and mortgage backed securities increase the driving option, 342 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: the drive for people to jack up costs because the 343 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: front the front costs or the back costs rather, mortgages 344 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 1: were so cheap. 345 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 2: Right when we look at home ownership, right, the cost 346 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,399 Speaker 2: of home ownership, you actually don't care about the home price. 347 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 2: That sounds weird because everyone is looking at the home 348 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 2: price when they're buying a home, but that is only 349 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 2: in the context of a certain interest rate market. So 350 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 2: what you really care about when you're trying to buy 351 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 2: a home as a potential home buyer, what you really 352 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 2: care about is your monthly mortgage payment, because that's what 353 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 2: actually has to fit into your monthly budget. And so 354 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 2: by pushing these interest rates down to next to nothing, 355 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 2: I personally know a lot of people who have interest 356 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 2: rates of two percent, not an exaggeration on a thirty 357 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 2: year fixed I know, not even more with the two 358 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 2: and a half percent rate. 359 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:57,880 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, mine's two point nine to nine right now. 360 00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: So I mean, there're guilty as. 361 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 2: But what happens then to home prices and that kind 362 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 2: of environment they explode. So on top of the increase 363 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,679 Speaker 2: in home prices that you already had from inflation, you 364 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 2: had this whole interest rate dynamic that was happening behind 365 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,919 Speaker 2: the scenes also because of federal reserve policy, that just 366 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 2: made home prices absolutely explode faster than other asset classes. 367 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 1: So I have a question for you, because I got 368 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: into a very heated debate with my brother about this, 369 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: and my brother said, the reason that there is that 370 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 1: home prices really haven't increase much more than disposable income 371 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 1: since the nineteen seventy and it's really disposable income. How 372 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 1: much disposed income we have is why home prices have increased. 373 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 1: I don't think that that's true. 374 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 2: Do you know, the ratios there just don't line up. Instead, 375 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 2: what we've seen really since the early nineteen seventies is 376 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 2: this move to just financialize everything. In other words, homes 377 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 2: no longer are just a dwelling right. And I'm not 378 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 2: talking about that homes have gotten more luxurious or anything 379 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,199 Speaker 2: like that, because from that standpoint, there's still a dwelling right. 380 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 2: There's still the utility of housing, in other words, is 381 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 2: still purely in the fact that it's a dwelling for you, 382 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 2: no matter how spartan or how luxurious that dwelling may be. Instead, 383 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 2: what has changed is the fact that housing is now 384 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:25,479 Speaker 2: a way to protect yourself from inflation. Housing is a 385 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 2: way for you to build wealth because it's going to 386 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 2: inflate so much over time. And that was that's especially 387 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 2: been true for the boomer generation, unlike for their parents 388 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 2: or generations prior to that, where nobody actually looked at 389 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 2: a home as something that was an investment. But that's 390 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 2: how you look at it today. For basically all of 391 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 2: American history until the seventies, the way you looked at 392 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,919 Speaker 2: a home was it's an asset class where by the 393 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 2: time you go to sell it, you're basically going to 394 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,199 Speaker 2: get out of it exactly what you paid for it. 395 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 2: There was no net incre there, So what the utility 396 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,679 Speaker 2: of it over time again was the fact that it 397 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,880 Speaker 2: was a dwelling. It was not an investment. You were 398 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 2: not trying to get a rate of return. But because 399 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 2: we have financialized housing in a broader move where we're 400 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 2: kind of financializing everything due to interest rate manipulations, it 401 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 2: really has completely changed how we look at housing as 402 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 2: an asset class. 403 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 1: What do you make of the claims, especially by libertarians 404 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: and very far progressives, that it's just all zoning laws, 405 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 1: it's the suburbs. The suburbs are the reason that we 406 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: have a housing shortage because they have strict zoning laws. 407 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 2: Well, to a certain extent, I think there's some credence 408 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 2: to that argument. For example, if we look at the 409 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:46,959 Speaker 2: areas of the country that have the strictest zoning laws, 410 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 2: that have the most localized control in terms of where 411 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 2: you can build and the kinds of dwellings you can build, 412 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 2: those are also the prices where you excuse me, those 413 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 2: are also the places where you find the highest price 414 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 2: is However, the idea that that's the suburbs actually isn't 415 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:07,199 Speaker 2: the case. Where you find that the strictest controls on 416 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,360 Speaker 2: housing is a lot of major city centers like New 417 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 2: York City specifically New York County aka Manhattan. It's Los 418 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 2: Angeles County out in California, much of Cook County, which 419 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 2: is where you find Chicago in Illinois. Those are the 420 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,920 Speaker 2: places where you know you have the highest home prices 421 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 2: because you have the worst overreach in terms of those 422 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 2: those kinds of controls. You actually don't find the highest 423 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 2: prices for dwellings out in the suburbs. Now you might 424 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 2: you might be able to if you kind of manipulate 425 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 2: the data a little bit, say home prices are more 426 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 2: expensive in the suburbs because that's where you find much 427 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 2: bigger homes. But if you account for all those factors, 428 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 2: it's really just not the case that the suburbs are 429 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 2: the driver of home price inflation. 430 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: Well, I think the suburbs are that are the well 431 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,439 Speaker 1: the boog man because they are they're whiter than the country, 432 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 1: than the cities as a whole, better schools, people who 433 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:12,160 Speaker 1: earn more incomes. Basically capitalism and white whiteness, the two 434 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 1: great enemies of the progressive movement is this is encompass 435 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: in the suburbs. A lot of people approach the issue 436 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: of housing from the issue of supply. We're millions of 437 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,239 Speaker 1: houms short. I always kind of look at it from 438 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 1: the issue of demand as well. Right, we are driving 439 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: the demand because of mass immigration has increased the need 440 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,239 Speaker 1: for housing. California would have had a net loss over 441 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: the last four years of almost one million people, but 442 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 1: they didn't because immigrants replaced Americans who left the state 443 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: because of failed policies. Sure, Am I wrong in saying 444 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,879 Speaker 1: that immigration is driving the housing crisis worse? 445 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 2: Well, it is certainly a huge proponent, and it's very 446 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 2: clear that it has had a net negative contribution. I 447 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 2: think you're absolutely right in that regard. If you look 448 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 2: at just the number of illegal aliens that we know 449 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 2: across the border, forget all the ones that we don't 450 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,399 Speaker 2: even know about. Just the illegal aliens that we know 451 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 2: across the border during the four years of twenty twenty 452 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:20,400 Speaker 2: one through twenty twenty four, that actually exceeds the population 453 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 2: of New Jersey, which is the most densely populated state 454 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,679 Speaker 2: in the country. So let's just do a quick intellectual exercise. 455 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 2: What do you think would happen to home prices to 456 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,159 Speaker 2: rents if all of those illegal aliens all went to 457 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 2: New Jersey. Now, for better or for worse, they were 458 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 2: spread out throughout the country, But if they all went 459 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 2: to New Jersey, obviously rents and home prices would explode. 460 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 2: So that effect has simply been diffused throughout the rest 461 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 2: of the country. Not perfectly. You pointed out California, and 462 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 2: you're absolutely right that were it not for the influx 463 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 2: of both legal and illegal foreign immigration, then you would 464 00:25:56,440 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 2: have seen populations go down much more substantially the Golden State. 465 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 2: But whatever the case, it's very clear that all of 466 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 2: these people are they're in need of dwellings, and so 467 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 2: they increase the demand for dwellings. So then you have 468 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 2: to ask, Okay, price is determined by supply and demand, 469 00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 2: So what's the interplay there? Demand obviously is an increase. 470 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 2: What's going on on the supply side, There is no 471 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 2: evidence that all of those illegal aliens have in any 472 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,959 Speaker 2: way added to the supply of housing. Now, is it 473 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 2: likely that some of them probably found jobs in the 474 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 2: home building industry. Sure, it's perfectly plausible, but there's no 475 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 2: certainly no empirical evidence for it. And the number of 476 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,959 Speaker 2: those illegal aliens who would have had to have gotten 477 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 2: jobs in that industry in order to offset the additional 478 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,719 Speaker 2: costs is so high that there's certainly no way that 479 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 2: there's any kind of overlap there. In other words, even 480 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 2: if you take a very optimistic scenario on the supply side, 481 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,439 Speaker 2: it still is a smaller increase than the increase in 482 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 2: demand QED. There must have been a net increase on price. 483 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:04,360 Speaker 2: That's positive. 484 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 1: Well, and what you know, the city of Houston is 485 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 1: kind of like the Epicenter for case study that prices 486 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,439 Speaker 1: have come down because they've built I think almost seventy 487 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 1: thousand homes in a single solitary year, which is immense 488 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 1: even though the population has only grown by ten thousand. 489 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 1: And they say, see, if we do this as the 490 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,640 Speaker 1: country as a whole, then we're going to be golden. 491 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 1: But the populate the natural growth plus immigration of the 492 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 1: country as a whole. In order to do that over 493 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: the course of a decade, you need something like eighty 494 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 1: million homes or seventy five million homes, and everyone wants 495 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: to live in the same thirty metropolitan areas. No one 496 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: wants to live in the middle of the Nevada desert, 497 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: so that is or not many people rather want to 498 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 1: live in the middle of the Nevada desert. It becomes 499 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 1: a race to the bottom in my opinion, if you 500 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,719 Speaker 1: just look at from the strict standpoint of we do 501 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 1: have to build more. But if you continue that, you 502 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,640 Speaker 1: know into fifty years from now or forty years from now, 503 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 1: you're talking about, you know, living in these Chinese mega 504 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,879 Speaker 1: cities where everyone lives in a cubicle and just saying, oh, well, 505 00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 1: it's a housing. 506 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,679 Speaker 2: Well, let's let's stick with the example of Houston for 507 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 2: a moment, because you know, that's a place going back 508 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 2: to your common earlier about you know, things like zoning laws. 509 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 2: Houston essentially has no zoning laws, and they have historically 510 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,439 Speaker 2: been one of the most affordable major metropolitan areas in 511 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 2: the United States in large part because of that and 512 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,640 Speaker 2: what Houston has done as it has expanded ever outward. 513 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 2: You know, most cities only have one highway that runs 514 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 2: around it, you know, they call it a loop or 515 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 2: a beltway here in d C. Right, Houston has three, 516 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 2: and they're building more. And the reason for that is 517 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 2: because the city just simply keeps growing. But you will 518 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 2: have very, very substantial areas of Houston that you can 519 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 2: go to today that feel actually pretty suburban, not urban. 520 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 2: In other words, it's not just city block after city 521 00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 2: block of nothing but apartments. Instead, you will find condos, 522 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:06,719 Speaker 2: town homes, and even independent or separate single family homes. 523 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,480 Speaker 2: So the idea that if we keep expanding cities or 524 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 2: we keep building, that we have to force ourselves into 525 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 2: smaller and smaller dwellings, I don't think that's the case 526 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 2: at all. The record of history doesn't show that. The 527 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 2: other issue is that if you look at a lot 528 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 2: of areas today that are major metropolitan areas and that 529 00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 2: are growing incredibly quickly, sticking with Texas on Austin is 530 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 2: immediately coming to mind. That city is growing like gangbusters, 531 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 2: and it was actually a pretty small city relatively speaking, 532 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 2: not that long ago. 533 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 1: And well, Houston sorry, one thing without Uston is the 534 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: third biggest land sized city in America, only behind Jacksonville 535 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 1: and Anchorage. I think in Alaska, like someplace like New York, 536 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 1: they can't grow outwards. It's a bunch of violence. So 537 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 1: the only way what I was thinking of, less so 538 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,440 Speaker 1: than Houston is rather than grow, you have to grow upwards. 539 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 1: You have to get cubicle sized homes in those places 540 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,880 Speaker 1: like that that rush up against water. I mean, you 541 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 1: can't build out anywhere else, Am I am? I just 542 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 1: wanted to clarify that what I was talking about with that, Oh. 543 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,760 Speaker 2: Sure, but I would say that there's no number one. 544 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 2: There's no reason why as you build up, you can't 545 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 2: build up in a large way. In other words, there's 546 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 2: no reason why as you build skyscrapers, those skyscrapers have 547 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 2: to all be five or six hundred square foot studio apartments. Right, 548 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,719 Speaker 2: you can build three or four bedroom apartments, and there 549 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 2: are areas of New York like that. Now they're outrageously expensive. 550 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 2: But again this goes back to the restrictions on building. 551 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,320 Speaker 2: The other thing is that there's no reason why you 552 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 2: have to stay on the Isle of Manhattan. There's no 553 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 2: reason why you can't continue building outward from there. And 554 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 2: we've seen this over time. Right, it's not as if 555 00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:02,120 Speaker 2: the areas the communities outside of New York City were 556 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 2: there one hundred years ago. We have been slowly expanding outwards. 557 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 2: And it's not just true for places where they're islands. 558 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: Right. 559 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,480 Speaker 2: You can look at a city a little further south, 560 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 2: like Philadelphia. If you go to the historic areas of 561 00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 2: Philadelphia today, including a place where Thomas Jefferson used to live. 562 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 2: It obviously is in the middle of downtown Philadelphia, but 563 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 2: at the time of our nation's founding it was considered 564 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 2: the suburbs. He specifically picked that small house to live 565 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 2: in for a while because it was away from the 566 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 2: hustle and bustle of the city. It was away from 567 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 2: the flies and the manure, from the horses, et cetera. 568 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,719 Speaker 2: So what has steadily happened over time. Is the areas 569 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 2: that previously were suburbs are now just considered part of 570 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 2: the city, and areas that previously were rural that were 571 00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 2: literal farms or uncleared woodlands are being cleared over time 572 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 2: and are being turned into suburbs. 573 00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 1: Okay, I have two questions left for you, so one 574 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 1: being what do you make of the allegation. Not the 575 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 1: allegation it is real, but what do you think of 576 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 1: the whole premise of corporations buying housing as a main 577 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,920 Speaker 1: driver in the increased cost of it. Is that as 578 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 1: real as what people claim it is or is that 579 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 1: hyperbole really for political points. 580 00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 2: If it was as real as a lot of the 581 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 2: politicians claim it is, then you would have seen, just 582 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 2: as you would see a huge reduction in the supply 583 00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,560 Speaker 2: of homes available for sale, you should have seen a 584 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,920 Speaker 2: huge increase a corresponding increase in the supply of homes 585 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,360 Speaker 2: for rent, because those businesses are not simply buying the 586 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 2: homes to sit on them. They're not buying the homes 587 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 2: for them to be vacant or for the CEO to 588 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:49,719 Speaker 2: go live in them, right, They're buying them so they 589 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 2: can turn around and rent them out, but you're not 590 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 2: seeing that dramatic increase in the supply of rents, which 591 00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 2: would then obviously put downward pressure on rent prices. The 592 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,600 Speaker 2: dynamic just simply isn't there. Now. Is it true that 593 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 2: we've seen an unusual amount of investors buying housing over 594 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 2: the last several years. Absolutely, and that's been due to 595 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 2: the fact that interest rates were kept so obscenely low 596 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,880 Speaker 2: for so long, because not only did that reduce mortgage rates, 597 00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 2: but it also reduced rates again for general borrowing. And 598 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 2: you don't have to pay the same interest rate when 599 00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 2: you're a large investment corporation, a large investment house buying 600 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,240 Speaker 2: up a ton of housing as somebody who's you know, 601 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 2: an individual trying to get trying to get that thirty 602 00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,959 Speaker 2: year fixed mortgage. Those rates are not the same. And 603 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 2: because they were so much lower for those those major brokers, 604 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 2: those major investors, the result was they could buy up 605 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 2: much more housing than people could could get could get 606 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,200 Speaker 2: mortgages to buy those homes. 607 00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 1: So that dynamic there understoning is like for all the 608 00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 1: you know times that Black Rock is buying property, most 609 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 1: of the corporate purchasing is just LLCs that individuals are doing. 610 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 1: Like you know, if someone's owns a summer house or 611 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 1: a vacation home or a second home to rent, it's 612 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 1: usually donder An LLC, and that is responsible for a 613 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,719 Speaker 1: large chunk of all corporate purchasing. But I wanted your 614 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 1: opinion on that, So you don't think that the. 615 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:28,440 Speaker 2: Median the median age of somebody buying a home today 616 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,920 Speaker 2: is like fifty something years old. In other words, these 617 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,000 Speaker 2: are people who already have homes and they're getting a 618 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 2: second home. They're getting like you said, they're getting that 619 00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 2: shore home which they're only going to use sometimes and 620 00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:41,640 Speaker 2: the rest of the time that they're airbing being it 621 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:43,840 Speaker 2: or you know whatever they case may be renting it 622 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 2: out right. The for a first time home buyer, the 623 00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 2: average age is like thirty eight. But if you if 624 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 2: you don't limit it to just first time buyers, if 625 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 2: you're looking at anybody buying a home today, I mean 626 00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:58,080 Speaker 2: it's it's basically all baby boomers and they're getting second homes. 627 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 1: You're gonna that's like a meme right there. Okay, So 628 00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:08,240 Speaker 1: if you if you were to advise some politicians, both 629 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:11,879 Speaker 1: federally and locally right on how to relieve the thing 630 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 1: if you wanted to be if a Republican went up 631 00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 1: to you and saying, I understand this is a major 632 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,960 Speaker 1: motivator for progressive politicians. How do I address a reasonable 633 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,120 Speaker 1: alternative that sounds good and will actually drive down a 634 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,400 Speaker 1: home prices? What do you say to somebody on the 635 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,600 Speaker 1: federal level, and when you say somebody on the local 636 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:28,799 Speaker 1: or state level. 637 00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,440 Speaker 2: Well, regardless of whether it's a Republican or a Democrat, 638 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 2: I would honestly tell them exactly the same thing. Which 639 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,520 Speaker 2: let's start with the local level, although it's somewhat true 640 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,240 Speaker 2: for the federal level as well. You got to reduce regulations. 641 00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,000 Speaker 2: You got to reduce spending at the local level. If 642 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:49,160 Speaker 2: you reduce spending, you can reduce property taxes, sometimes sales taxes, 643 00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,840 Speaker 2: but it's locals almost always disproportionately rely on property taxes. 644 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,239 Speaker 2: Getting those property taxes down helps reduce the cost of 645 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 2: ownership because again that directly ties in to the monthly 646 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,560 Speaker 2: mortgage payment, which is what we said has to fit 647 00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:07,440 Speaker 2: into the potential home buyer's monthly budget. So that's a 648 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,399 Speaker 2: big component. Get the spending down, get the regulation down, 649 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,440 Speaker 2: so you can reduce the cost of home ownership reduce 650 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,640 Speaker 2: the cost of building new homes as well. At the 651 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,480 Speaker 2: federal level, similarly, there are plenty of federal regulations that 652 00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,719 Speaker 2: drive up home prices nationwide. You got to get rid 653 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:27,279 Speaker 2: of those. They're just they're inefficient. They don't protect homeowners 654 00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,160 Speaker 2: like they say they should, so they're not worth it. 655 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,040 Speaker 2: They impose costs without imposing commissary benefits. And then you've 656 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,279 Speaker 2: got to get the spending down, because the spending is 657 00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,000 Speaker 2: what drives the barring, which is what drives the FED policy, 658 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,319 Speaker 2: which is what drives the interest rate manipulations, and has 659 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 2: contributed to this massive mess in the first place, and 660 00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,840 Speaker 2: completely frozen over the housing market. You're in this bizarre 661 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 2: situation today because of excess government spending, where people are 662 00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 2: sitting like yourself, are sitting on a two point nine 663 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,759 Speaker 2: to nine percent mortgage. Why on earth would you sell 664 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,560 Speaker 2: your home today, lose that mortgage and have to get 665 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,720 Speaker 2: a new one at seven or eight or even nine percent. 666 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:06,720 Speaker 2: In some markets, you'd have to downsize. You can't afford 667 00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,560 Speaker 2: the same home anymore. Your monthly payment would absolutely explode, 668 00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:15,280 Speaker 2: So you've frozen over the existing or used housing market. 669 00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,520 Speaker 2: At the same time, costs for home builders are at 670 00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,680 Speaker 2: a record high because of inflation, and they can't afford 671 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,759 Speaker 2: to borrow money because of today's higher interest rates. So 672 00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:27,520 Speaker 2: you've also drastically decreased the supply that's coming online in 673 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,600 Speaker 2: terms of new construction. So all in all, it has 674 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 2: completely frozen over the housing market because the government just 675 00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,840 Speaker 2: couldn't get control of its spending. 676 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 1: Spending is deficit. Spending is the hidden sacks, and no 677 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,600 Speaker 1: one sees So ej Antoni, thank you so much for 678 00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,319 Speaker 1: coming on this podcast. Where can people go to read 679 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:46,120 Speaker 1: more of your stuff. 680 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,440 Speaker 2: The best place to find me is on x and 681 00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,320 Speaker 2: the handle there is at real EJ. 682 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:56,319 Speaker 1: And TONI thank you so much for coming on. Now 683 00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,160 Speaker 1: it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show. 684 00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,520 Speaker 1: If you want to of the Asking Me Anything segment, 685 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 1: email me Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan 686 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:09,279 Speaker 1: at numbers Plural gamepodcast dot com. I've had a backlog. 687 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,479 Speaker 1: I've been very successful in working that down. We only 688 00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 1: have a few emails left, so if you email me now, 689 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:16,840 Speaker 1: I will get to it on the show on a 690 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:21,359 Speaker 1: pretty quick manner. So this email comes to Matthew Schinzing. 691 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:23,399 Speaker 1: I hope I got the name right, he says, Ryan, 692 00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:25,800 Speaker 1: I quite enjoy your show and always find it enlightening 693 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 1: and informative. My question is how important are pro gun 694 00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,720 Speaker 1: voters in the Republican Party voting coalition. As it always 695 00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:36,200 Speaker 1: seems the Republican politicians ignore gun rights issues to the 696 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,120 Speaker 1: pro gun base. Yet I hear pro gun people saying 697 00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,600 Speaker 1: to each other at extremely important parts of the base. 698 00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:46,160 Speaker 1: How does it make sense if they constantly feel ignored 699 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,800 Speaker 1: by the Republican Party. Okay, this is a great question, 700 00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,040 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Matthew. So when it comes to 701 00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 1: gun rights, they're about forty two percent of Americans live 702 00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,640 Speaker 1: in a home where someone owns a gun, and about 703 00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:00,520 Speaker 1: thirty three percent actually own the gun themselves. And there's 704 00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:05,880 Speaker 1: big differences in the population. For example, older voters older 705 00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:09,000 Speaker 1: Americans have more likely to own a gun than younger Americans, 706 00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:13,120 Speaker 1: white Americans more than Hispanic or Black Americans, rural Americans 707 00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:17,759 Speaker 1: more than urban Americans. YadA, YadA, YadA. Gun rights are 708 00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:24,799 Speaker 1: interesting because the opinion of them sways very significantly from 709 00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,439 Speaker 1: both those who don't own a gun and those who 710 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,920 Speaker 1: only own like one gun. Right. Among people who only 711 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,959 Speaker 1: own one gun or maybe less, there are a very 712 00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:39,000 Speaker 1: big support for what they say is quote unquote common 713 00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,440 Speaker 1: sense gun laws. Right. Policies that are more restrictive, like 714 00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 1: preventing people from mental illness from purchasing guns has like 715 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 1: an eighty nine percent approval rating among Republicans, even who 716 00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,399 Speaker 1: own guns. Increasing the minimum age to buy a gun 717 00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,800 Speaker 1: has sixty nine percent support among Republicans. Then there's issues 718 00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 1: like banning assault style weapons, which is like, you know, 719 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,840 Speaker 1: it's a ridiculous term, this was such thing as assault style weapon, 720 00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:05,040 Speaker 1: but even that has forty percent support. And then there's 721 00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,440 Speaker 1: issues like allowing teachers to carry guns, which is a 722 00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:11,360 Speaker 1: seventy five percent support among Republicans, and issues like allowing 723 00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,800 Speaker 1: people to have concealed carrying more places has a seventy 724 00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:18,320 Speaker 1: one percent. It's a very splintered position, right. Not everyone 725 00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:22,520 Speaker 1: who owns a gun is supportive of all expansive and 726 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:26,440 Speaker 1: more permissive gun laws, and not everyone who doesn't own 727 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 1: a gun is not supportive of all restrictive gun laws. Right, 728 00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,920 Speaker 1: So it's very it's not one or the other, it's 729 00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,600 Speaker 1: kind of a mixture of both when it comes to 730 00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:39,799 Speaker 1: the vote of gun owners right, specifically gun owners. In 731 00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:43,920 Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, Nate Cohen from The New York Times did 732 00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:48,000 Speaker 1: a breakdown of all the states in the country boased 733 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,120 Speaker 1: on gun owners and how they voted. There was only 734 00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:55,160 Speaker 1: one state in the entire country where a majority of 735 00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,960 Speaker 1: gun owners voted for Hillary Clinton, and that was Vermont 736 00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:04,680 Speaker 1: Vermont in twenty sixteen, Hillary won Vermont's gun owners fifty 737 00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:08,240 Speaker 1: one forty two. Every other state in the country California, 738 00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:11,520 Speaker 1: Trump won gun owners by twelve points. New York Trump 739 00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:15,080 Speaker 1: won gun owners by thirty points. Florida Trump one gun 740 00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:18,000 Speaker 1: owners by thirty four points. In Texas, Trump one gun 741 00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:21,560 Speaker 1: owners by thirty six points. Forty nine out of fifty states, 742 00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:26,200 Speaker 1: gun owners voted for the Republican. What about non gun owners? 743 00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,319 Speaker 1: A majority of non gun owners in forty nine other 744 00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:35,120 Speaker 1: fifty states coincidentally voted for the Democrat. The only state 745 00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,000 Speaker 1: where Trump won a majority of non gun owners was 746 00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:41,279 Speaker 1: West Virginia, which he won by fourteen points. But you know, 747 00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:45,120 Speaker 1: go to the red estates in the country. Go to Arkansas, 748 00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:49,720 Speaker 1: Trump lost non gun owners by eleven points. Mississippi, Trump 749 00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:53,680 Speaker 1: lost non gun owners by forty eight points. Go to Tennessee, 750 00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:58,040 Speaker 1: Trump lost non gun owners by fifteen points. Nothing divides 751 00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:01,319 Speaker 1: voters like a gun and the Republican Party cannot win 752 00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,520 Speaker 1: without gun owners. There's just no way gun owners are 753 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,040 Speaker 1: They make and break and they turn states red. And 754 00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,560 Speaker 1: gun ownership is on the rise and it's becoming more diversified. 755 00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:16,000 Speaker 1: There are more black and female and Latino gun owners, 756 00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:21,440 Speaker 1: which has made the issue change the issue. But I 757 00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,520 Speaker 1: think when it comes to the question do they feel 758 00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:27,399 Speaker 1: do gun owners feel like their rights are being disrespected, 759 00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,120 Speaker 1: it really depends on who you talk to. The idea 760 00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:35,239 Speaker 1: of constitutional carry was considered a very weird issue in 761 00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,200 Speaker 1: the year two thousand and the year two thousand, only 762 00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,759 Speaker 1: one state had constecial carry and that was Vermont. And 763 00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:42,520 Speaker 1: now more than half the states in the country of 764 00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,839 Speaker 1: constitual carry. That's an immense change and I think an 765 00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:50,400 Speaker 1: immense culture war win for the Republican Party more than 766 00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,319 Speaker 1: anything else. And look if you look at where they 767 00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,120 Speaker 1: spend so much of their time in the judiciary trying 768 00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 1: to get conservative judges, there's no place they have fought 769 00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:03,080 Speaker 1: harder for than on second mement rights. So so yes, 770 00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,040 Speaker 1: gun owners extremely important for the Republican Party. Can't own 771 00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,760 Speaker 1: without them. Forty nine out of fifty states gun owners 772 00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:12,080 Speaker 1: a majority gun owners voted for the Republican presidential candon 773 00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:14,960 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen. Forty nine and fifty states they voted 774 00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:18,720 Speaker 1: for the Democrat non gun owners did in twenty sixteen. 775 00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,800 Speaker 1: But as far as feeling disrespected, I think it's really 776 00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,080 Speaker 1: a question of who you ask. But great question, Matthew, 777 00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,200 Speaker 1: and I hope that that was insightful to how gun owners. 778 00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,560 Speaker 1: You know, they make or break the Republican Party, and 779 00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:32,600 Speaker 1: we need her Second Amendment for more than one reason. 780 00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:35,680 Speaker 1: But politically, the Republicans definitely need people to own guns. 781 00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:37,880 Speaker 1: So thank you for listening, Thank you for your question. 782 00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,560 Speaker 1: I'll be back on Thursday. Please like and subscribe on 783 00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:44,040 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts for regulus en podcasts. I'll 784 00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:45,000 Speaker 1: see you later this week.