WEBVTT - Our FINAL 2024 Election Predictions | A Conversation with Tara Palmeri 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.080 It is eleven days to go, and I'm thrilled today 0:00:03.080 --> 0:00:06.360 to be joined again by Tara Palmieri of Puck News, 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:10.640 who is one of the very best political reporters in America. 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:13.159 Has a real handle not just on what's going on 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:17.239 in the race, but the people in the country that 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:20.639 will decide the race, which is often an ingredient missing 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.400 in the mix with a lot of the political coverage. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:25.599 Welcome Tyr. 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:28.720 Thank you Steve for that kind intro. It's such a 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:30.760 pleasure to be on the show. Really honored. 0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:34.599 I was about thirty seconds late dialing in on our 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:39.479 set time because I got a call from a freaked out, 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:47.800 freaked out Democrat Wow, very well known in the party 0:00:49.560 --> 0:01:02.600 and bereft, saying she's going to lose. The mood was despair, hopelessness, depression, 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:08.160 a little bit of anger, and bewilderment about what she 0:01:08.319 --> 0:01:12.800 should be doing, could be doing, talking about the Nevada 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:19.039 early vote numbers are terrible, real rage towards Biden that 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:24.039 I think today you know that's just bubbling underneath there. 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:26.800 But my first question for you, like is that is 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.280 he an outlier? What's the mood as you're talking to people, 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:35.200 what team thinks they're winning, what team thinks they're losing, 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:36.400 who's happy? 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:37.119 Who said? 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:40.400 What's going on on the campaign trail with these campaigns? 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:44.240 All right, I'll cut to the chase. Democrats definitely are anxious, 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:48.440 they feel like they're losing. Republicans are feeling amazing. Perhaps 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:52.520 it's misguided, but they're really encouraged by these early voting figures. 0:01:52.600 --> 0:01:56.040 Republicans are coming out in stronger numbers than ever before 0:01:57.120 --> 0:01:59.960 for a variety of reasons. You know, Republicans traditionally know 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:03.960 voted early except for in Arizona, right, and it was 0:02:04.000 --> 0:02:06.960 always Democrats. I'm talking about the battleground states. But now 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:10.080 you know there's vote by mail. There's early voting in 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:12.560 these battleground states that some of them started back in 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:15.160 COVID in twenty twenty or just in the recent election. 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:19.280 And you know, Trump called it rigged, he called it, 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:22.840 you know, fraudulent. But the new messaging from the GOP 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:25.840 and from himself, a convert, is that vote by mail. 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:27.919 I'm going to do it. Even Marjorie Taylor Green is 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:33.600 voting early and by mail. So you know the party 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:36.560 has shifted towards vote by mail, Vote by mail, vote 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:38.880 by mail, and this is something you've never seen before, 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:41.800 Republicans voting early, and in the case of North Carolina, 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:45.839 yesterday they out voted Democrats by three thousand votes. That's 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:48.600 never happened before. And in fact, like that's always been 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:51.440 a strength for Democrats, specifically in North Carolina, is getting 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:55.000 their voters out early. So there's obviously a lot of 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:57.440 anxiety about these early voting numbers, and I think it's 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:03.280 translating to both parties because and the Republicans are super happy, 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:04.959 but you know what, these voters they may have gone 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.960 out on election day and instead they're just banking their 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.400 vote now, and maybe they're just cannibalizing the people that 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:12.440 were going to show up anyway. And on election Day, 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:14.720 when Republicans tend to get more voters, they might not 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:18.640 see that. So this glee could be misguided. But I 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:23.760 know that, you know, the RNC Coachair Michael Wattley is 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:26.359 telling all the supporters, like, we're getting these great figures. 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:30.799 We feel so good about Pennsylvania. You know, Democrats still 0:03:30.800 --> 0:03:34.800 haven't reached five hundred thousand early vote requests yet that's 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:37.600 what they sort of need to counter on election day. 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:41.880 And so you know, Republicans, so they always beat their 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:44.320 chest like it's kind of part of the psychology of 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:47.119 the party. And perhaps it's because they realize that they're 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:50.240 voters don't like going out unless they think they're voting 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:54.400 for a winning team, and Democrats induce anxiety to get 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.120 their voters out. I mean, you can see it in 0:03:56.200 --> 0:04:00.080 Harris's messaging right, It's like, if you don't vote for me, 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.440 it's an ex existential threat to democracy. Trumps of fascist. 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:05.480 He's a dictator. Think of how dark it can be. 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:08.920 I just had one of Harris's advisors on my show, 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:12.360 John Angeloni, and he said, yeah, we're trying to induce PTSD. 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:16.640 So like the psychology for Democrats right now, it's fear, 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:19.960 but the fact that they're feeling it themselves is saying something, Right, 0:04:20.160 --> 0:04:23.080 there's one thing to be inducing fear on your on 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:25.039 your voters to get them out as a way to 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:29.919 it's not just persuasion. I think it's persuasion for the 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:32.599 kind of voters who are on the fence, the devils haters, 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:36.159 the Nicky Haley voters, the independence the lattads. But for 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:38.800 those like you know, base voters who maybe are just 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:41.280 like eh, I think she's got it locked up, like 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:43.960 maybe it's it's a get out the vote mechanism for them, 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:49.400 and I think the part I actually think her team though, 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:53.120 truly feels it and fears that future and sees it 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:56.800 possibly happening in eleven days. And Trump, like I wrote 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:59.960 about this last week, but he's in a really good move. 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:05.839 He just has been. And maybe he's overreading the early 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.480 voting figures, like you said in Nevada, where Republicans are 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:13.320 coming out in rural counties and even urban counties. You know, 0:05:13.320 --> 0:05:16.440 you got John Ralston at the Nevada Independent. He's kind 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:20.640 of like the election political guru saying, this is a 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:24.120 shocking like turnabout. We've never seen this before that you know, 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:26.560 the Red machine, the Harry Reid machine, was supposed to 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:28.880 get Democrats out early. That's how we did it. We 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:31.920 banked you know, a third of our voters before election day. 0:05:32.560 --> 0:05:35.040 But you know Democrats now have a quarter of their 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.360 voters out and Republicans have a ton of voters out. 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:39.800 And he thinks that the no tax on tips and 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:41.920 the fact that Trump put that out there first may 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:44.960 have been like it may have been a way to 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:48.400 sort of like draw wedge in the you know, the 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:52.800 the hospitality unions out there, the culinary union, you know 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:57.920 that that really controls like the Vegas area. So Steve, 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:02.760 I'm hearing the same thing. But like Democrats by nature anxious, 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:05.400 Republicans by nature, bravado. They said we were going to 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:07.120 get a red wave in twenty twenty two. It was 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:10.320 a red trickle. But you know it could be also 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:11.479 a way to activate voters. 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.720 Let's talk to psychology of it, because I think it's 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:18.840 so interesting when you take this outside of green room 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:23.120 theory and apply it to the complexities. 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:23.240 Of the real world. 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:25.839 And I want you to call me out if I 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:33.400 say anything that is remotely imprecise or incorrect about what 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:35.760 what's going to come out of my mouth. I am 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:41.760 not wrong right when I say that Donald Trump communicated 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:47.240 as aggressively as he could that voting by mail was 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:51.920 a fraudulent, bad thing to do that elected Democrats. 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:54.480 Correct, Absolutely, it's correct. 0:06:55.880 --> 0:07:01.760 Then one day Trump stopped saying it, yes and already 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:09.000 starts communicating to that voter base which had been socialized, 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:13.080 don't do this to you, gotta do this. 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:15.160 Do I understand that? Right? 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:19.040 Absolutely? I mean, in Pennsylvania, write that now some of 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:22.400 the signs you'll see are swamp them with votes, make 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:26.480 it too big to rig vote early today. So yeah, 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:29.320 now he's saying, if you don't vote early, they're going 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:31.320 to steal it from me. It's an extension of his 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:35.920 they stole my election narrative from twenty twenty. But you know, 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:38.080 my sources tell me that it was only a couple 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:41.160 of weeks ago that Trump was truly persuaded that voting 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:45.160 early was a good thing, Like late early October, he 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:47.560 still didn't believe it. They had to push him. And 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:49.920 you know, just like a year ago, he was still 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.360 telling people he thought it was rigged and fraudulent. So 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:56.120 whatever the Republicans have done is incredible. Now, I know, 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:58.200 I always go back to my own family. I use 0:07:58.240 --> 0:07:59.920 them as my focus group. But I know my father 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:03.640 is a Republican and he went out to early vote. 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:06.400 My brother is a Republican. He went out to early vote. 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:08.720 At the same time, my mom, who as a swing voter, 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:10.880 went out to early vote and she's leaning towards Harris, 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.080 and brought out my grandmother who is going to vote 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.200 for Harris. So, like they're in North Carolina, early voting 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:18.720 has always been a thing in North Carolina, but Republicans 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.160 never really did it. They always were election day voters. 0:08:21.560 --> 0:08:24.680 But I think people are just like, why wouldn't we 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.600 early vote? Now they've made it so much easier. I mean, 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:31.680 but again, in Pennsylvania, early voting is down across the board. 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:36.400 But it was like three to one Democrats from Democrats 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:39.559 to Republicans in terms of early vote mail in ballot requests. 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:43.559 Now it's two to one. So you know, Republicans have 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:47.400 made gains and registrations in Pennsylvania. They're still not at 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:50.839 the same level as Democrats, but there's something to be 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:53.680 seen in these numbers, Like the trend lines are looking 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:56.880 good and the momentum it's looking good for Republicans. On 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:59.360 election night, you got to make sure you hold on 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:01.920 to that could be, you know, it could be that 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:05.160 Democrats end up surging in the end. But and a 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:07.000 lot of women have come out to vote. That's another 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:10.400 thing there have been there's been more women have come 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:12.240 out to vote than men. So that's also a good 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:14.559 indicator for the Democrats. But I think they don't ever 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:18.280 feel comfortable unless they are surging. And like I mentioned, 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:21.800 I also talked to Trump's polster John McLaughlin, who said, 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:25.839 who showed me his figures? He made them public. They 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:27.960 showed Trump winning within the margin of error, like by 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:31.880 a point in Pennsylvania, right, And I'm like, why do 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:33.640 you say this is a victory to me? You have 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.320 a you know, forty nine percent chance of losing. And 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:39.160 he's like, you just don't understand. We're not ever used 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:43.000 to being up. Our psychology, even within the campaign, is 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:45.400 that we're down. He said, you know, something like this 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:50.559 day in twenty sixteen, Real Clear Politics had Hillary at 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:54.680 forty eight percent and Trump at forty one. So they're 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:57.679 not used to feeling as if they've got a shot, 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:00.960 and so they may be over compensating for But I 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:04.520 think it's partially the overcompensation from the numbers that show 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:07.760 them at parody and this belief that there is momentum 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:09.600 just based on the early voting numbers. 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:12.680 Well, I think one interesting facet of it is that 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.520 you have to really dig into the psychology of it. 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.600 If I was sitting in the campaign, I'd be really 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:22.800 curious to know, you know, all of a sudden and 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:25.559 we say, if you're on the Harris campaign, if I 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:29.839 was on the Harris campaign that the campaign's position is 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:34.880 he's a fascist, which I would agree with, and that 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.840 he is a top of cult of personality, which I 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:43.319 agree with. So if that's true, the cult of personality 0:10:43.400 --> 0:10:46.760 is going to do what the leader tells it to do. 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:48.240 So if the. 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.560 Leader in all the propaganda vest will say do this, 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:57.079 people in that cult of personality, if it's real, are 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:57.960 going to respond. 0:10:58.000 --> 0:10:59.480 They're going to follow the order. 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:02.319 So we're going to see somewhere north of one hundred 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:07.240 and sixty two million votes. You know, the side that 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.200 is going to be responsive to the order is definitely 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:13.560 the MAGA side. You know, the liberty loving side is 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:15.760 going to be a little bit more freewheeling, and so 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:18.280 we're going to see if that balance is out on 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:21.040 election day. But if you look at this through the 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:26.000 prism of past is prologue, or that there's a trend 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:30.240 line and that you can make certain deductions because the 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:34.719 next election is always a bit prefaced and foreshadowed by 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:38.000 the last one, then it's a really ominous. It's a 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:41.559 really ominous thing. I want to ask you. I want 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:43.599 to ask you too about like this other kind of 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:49.120 element of psychology, which I think is so interesting and 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.120 in the formation of the electorate, which is, if I 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:58.920 hear you correctly, what you're saying is that Democrats, in 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:06.600 order to be incited and to be instigated to take action, 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:12.360 have to be approached from the prism of something bad 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:17.120 is going to happen. Fear that fear. And on the 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:23.240 Republican side, right, what the stimulant is, right, the. 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.920 Inducement to join is winning. 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:32.760 Yeah, being on the winning team. That appears to be 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:38.760 the psychology of the teams. Right. At the same time, 0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:42.000 I think they are both using, well more so the 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:45.199 Democrats and Republicans. They're both trying to use scare tactics. 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:49.600 Trump is leaning into immigration, something he leaned into in 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:54.280 twenty sixteen crime, the idea that we're being invaded. But yeah, 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:59.400 there's something I think for Republicans, especially these low propensity voters, 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:01.440 that maybe they want to go out and say that 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.880 they voted for their cult leader, right as you said, 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:06.680 they want to feel like they're a part of something 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:09.719 bigger than themselves. The question is, and what we hear 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:12.520 from people like David Ploff on Harris's side, is oh, 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:15.920 these are all, you know, first time voters, low propensity voters. 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:18.680 When you're doing your models, how much are you accounting 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:19.920 for the fact that a lot of these guys have 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:23.040 never voted before, Like these like in cells in their basement, 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.800 as they've been referred to by the Harris team. Sure, 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.079 like they've never voted to before. They don't vote in 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:31.080 twenty twenty two when Trump's not on the ballot, right, 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:34.360 it's all about Trump. But if Trump is really like 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:37.720 a driver of votes for these specific people that don't 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.120 vote regularly, then like it's really hard to know what's 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:44.400 going to happen. It maybe even cancels out the fact 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:47.599 that the Democrats have a much better get out the 0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.800 vote operation. You know, Republicans left it to Elon Musk 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:53.200 and Charlie Kirk who are in way over their head. 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.160 Their canvassers are mess Some of them are actually doing 0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:01.680 fraudulent door knocks, just trying to grift and it's it's 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:05.920 like the republic Prokland National Committee is no longer a 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:10.400 ground operation fundraising operation. It's really become an election integrity 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:12.920 unit or you know, stop to steal unit. A bunch 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:14.360 of lawyers are in there. Those are the people that 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:18.000 are focusing on trying to like create law fare around 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.880 the election because no matter what happens, unless Trump sweeps, 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:26.000 he's gonna, you know, he's gonna claim that, you know, 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:30.600 he won, and and even if Harris sweeps, he'll still 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:32.360 claim he wins. So he's got to be ready for that. 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:35.120 And he also believes that he's going to win, like 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.080 he has said to his he has said to Michael 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:39.680 Wattley and the RNC and all these people, like, I'm 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:42.080 going to win this. And the only way i will 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:45.040 lose this is if you fail me steal it from me. 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.080 This is you know, this is it. So he's fired 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:51.960 at warning shots already. Everybody knows that. So yeah, I mean, listen, 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.840 is Trump enough of a get up the vote mechanism himself? 0:14:56.400 --> 0:15:00.120 Like between smartphones and the cult of personality, does that 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:04.800 match a strong operation, a strong, actual ground game of 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:08.000 canvassers out there getting people out that the Democrats have. 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:10.080 It's hard to say, but like I can tell you this, 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.600 Harris is not a cult leader. She doesn't have one 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:15.080 hundred percent name. I D A lot of people say 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.240 they don't really know anything about her. What more can 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:22.320 you possibly know about Donald Trump? So it's really that 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.600 is the X factor on election day at the same time, 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.400 like all of these, a bunch of battleground state experts 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:30.360 that I spoke to this past week and said, you know, 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:34.840 Democrats are registering independence like at high at very high levels, 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.560 and even in Nevada where their alarm belts have been ringing. 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:42.120 And it's hard to say whether these are these independents 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:46.680 are just like disguised Democrats, because in twenty twenty, Nevada 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:50.400 started auto registering voters. It's the same thing in North 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.920 Carolina when you go to get a license register your car, 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:57.000 you're automatically registered as a voter, or there's just like 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.600 a there's just like a thing you tick off and 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.440 and if you don't pick a party, you're automatically registered 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:06.360 as a non partnerson independent. So like these and they've 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:08.480 come out, one hundred thousand of them have already come out, 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:11.480 these independents. So what is motivating them to come out? 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:13.600 Maybe it is the no tax on tips and they 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:17.320 heard it first from Trump, or maybe they're maybe they're Democrats. 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:19.200 So I think in a lot of these states there's 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:23.400 there's been a big independent turnout. The psychology of it 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:26.160 all is hard to say, because like women are also 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:28.440 super motivated at the same time, like they may be 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:30.640 more motivated than the in cells, and it might not 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:32.880 be about Harris but about their own rights. 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:35.640 So we're going to talk about the in cells. I 0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:38.640 want to for everybody who is who is watching this. 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:44.520 David Ploff, who is directing the strategy at the Harris 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:51.400 campaign Obama campaign strategist. His theory, if I understand it correctly, 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:56.600 is Trump has a ceiling that he will not get 0:16:56.720 --> 0:17:02.840 a vote total beyond a hard number meaning right. Similarly, 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:08.640 if you fly an airplane right into a hard object, right, 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:13.480 because of physics to objects occupy the same space at 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:17.560 the same time, it's going to explode, right, It's going 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:24.439 to crash. So what Pluff is saying is, don't listen 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:28.400 to all the noise, don't listen to all the thunder. 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:33.960 There's a number that he's going to have to reach 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:37.280 and he can't reach it. 0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:38.280 Is that about, right? 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.040 Is that? Yeah, he's saying he can't get more than 0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:46.199 forty eight percent, essentially, But the Trump team at the 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:50.120 same time counters you know, we're getting more first time voters, 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:52.480 We're getting these young men, We're getting a lot of 0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:56.119 people feeling more comfortable about talking about votings for Trump. 0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:01.439 You know, you have this unique situation where incumbents are 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:07.359 losing elections across the globe because of inflationary pressure, and 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:09.719 you have like a unique set of circumstances where the 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:12.359 fundamentals of the campaign are sort of on Trump's side 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:14.720 right now. So whether you like him or hate them, 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.480 if you're really voting on the economy and on immigration, 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.400 the two top issues that voters report are important to them, 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.960 Like the fundamentals of a race are on Trump's side. 0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:26.840 It's just like, and does that mean he can break 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:29.920 his forty eight percent ceiling? I don't know, But does 0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:32.400 that mean that like Harris will get to forty nine 0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:34.800 point five or fifty, Like they both could have a 0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:38.399 ceiling and there could just be you know, who knows 0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:39.880 how the people in Michigan are going to go out 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:42.560 and vote. Right there's Jill Stein still on the ballot 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:45.879 with the Democrats right now. They might end up voting 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.959 for Jill Stein. Steve, I'd be curious to see what 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:51.000 you think. Do you think that forty eight percent is 0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:52.879 Trump's ceiling and he can't reach it? 0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:53.840 Well? 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:57.560 I was So there's a theory of the case right, 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:00.200 and everybody has to have a theory of the case. 0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:02.639 If you watch a football game this weekend, as the 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:05.040 game gets dound at his end, if it's a close one, 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:09.560 coach calls the play, quarterback calls the play. That play 0:19:09.640 --> 0:19:12.480 is premised on a theory of the case that we 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:16.159 line up this way and this player moves in motion, 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:19.800 then these other players will react to that and be 0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:24.240 somewhere that we can exploit and take advantage of. And 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:29.040 so I think that I'm not sure that I agree 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:31.480 with the premise on the theory of the case. 0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:32.960 You know, Chuck. 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:36.119 Yeger is the is the pilot who broke the sound 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:40.119 barrier World War two ACE and Chuck Yeger when he 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:43.639 broke the sound barrier, there was a real belief that 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:46.320 it was a barrier in the sky that was like 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:49.159 a wall, that when you hit the sound barrier it 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:52.040 would be like hitting a wall, and instead he flew 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:56.680 through it. So I don't sleep soundly as somebody who 0:19:56.760 --> 0:20:03.040 has a real rooting interest here with regard to that 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:08.439 Trump can't break through that ceiling in the same way 0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:12.879 that the other campaign that David was involved in, Obama's 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:16.840 campaign twenty twelve, the premise of the Romney campaign was 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:19.480 that there was no way there could be more black 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:22.280 people that would vote for Barack Obama in the second 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:25.320 term than voted for him in the first term. And 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:27.520 in fact, there were more black people that voted for 0:20:27.600 --> 0:20:30.120 him in the second term in the re election than 0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:33.119 in the first one. So I just think, at the 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.679 end of the day, you have to take a shot. 0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:41.200 I think if you had somebody looking at this the 0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:44.359 best person in the world, Like if I could pick 0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:49.359 somebody if my brother was running for president and I 0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:53.320 had to look at him and say this, listen to 0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:56.960 this guy, I would say, listen to bluff, right as 0:20:57.000 --> 0:20:59.720 somebody who ran a race against David is how much 0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:02.920 was fact I have for them? But that doesn't make 0:21:03.000 --> 0:21:06.960 him an errant. It's not etched in granite. It's a 0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:10.920 gux and and it's a it's a very very close race. 0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:14.439 And all of the intangibles that you talked about, you know, 0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:17.400 is women. And one of the things that you're never 0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:19.920 here talking about on a television show a lot of 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:24.359 these cable shows is that, well, is that woman responding 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:28.480 to the immigration message or is she responding to the 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:33.280 abortion message? What's the I card between those two. And 0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:36.760 so the answer to that tells me a lot about 0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:40.199 that early, that early female vote, and it's kind of 0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:44.520 displacements out across out across the country where we're where 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.800 we're seeing it. I do think that the one thing 0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:51.560 that I find like really incredible about this race, which 0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:57.120 is I've never seen anything like it, is if you're 0:21:57.160 --> 0:22:02.680 working on a campaign. When I worked on campaigns, there 0:22:02.760 --> 0:22:08.160 was no tolerance or space for delusional people because you 0:22:08.240 --> 0:22:11.520 are involved in an effort that doesn't stop seven days 0:22:11.560 --> 0:22:15.239 a week, fifteen hours a day, and nobody wants to 0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:18.640 be with somebody who's telling them that the red chair 0:22:18.760 --> 0:22:23.680 is blue, that the green grass is orange, or whatever 0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:24.760 the case may be. 0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:27.840 For so much of the year, the. 0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:31.199 Position of the party, the Biden White House was so 0:22:31.440 --> 0:22:35.040 oppositional to what voters were saying, which is, we don't 0:22:35.080 --> 0:22:38.520 want this, we don't want this choice, we don't want 0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:42.639 him to run for reelection. Right, the party's position is 0:22:42.720 --> 0:22:47.639 basically like, we don't agree with anything on MAGA, on anything, 0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:50.440 but they agreed on one thing right, which is that 0:22:50.480 --> 0:22:51.719 the choice was the choice. 0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:52.840 Right. It was Biden. 0:22:52.600 --> 0:22:57.560 Versus Trump, until all of a sudden that it isn't now. 0:22:57.760 --> 0:23:01.000 I remember Bush in four o'clock to a bunch of this. 0:23:01.119 --> 0:23:03.560 I think it was like this talk he gave us. 0:23:04.320 --> 0:23:06.800 Always when I tell a story, I say it was 0:23:06.840 --> 0:23:10.679