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Speaker 2: The US is entering the third week of its war
Speaker 2: with Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegsett slammed Iranian leadership and
Speaker 2: questioned if the new Ayatola is up for leading the country.
Speaker 5: Ron's leadership is in no better shape. Desperate and hiding.
Speaker 5: They've gone underground, cowering. That's what rats do we know?
Speaker 5: The new so called not so supreme leader is wounded
Speaker 5: and likely disfigured. He put out of statement yesterday a
Speaker 5: week one actually, but there was no voice and there
Speaker 5: was no video.
Speaker 6: It was a written statement. He called for unity.
Speaker 5: Apparently killing tens of thousands of protesters is his kind
Speaker 5: of unity. Iran has plenty of cameras and plenty of
Speaker 5: voice recorders. Why a written statement.
Speaker 6: Jordian Us. This morning, Bloomberg Jerusalem reporter Dan Williams.
Speaker 3: We've got Bloomberg's Washington correspondent Jeff Mason, who is traveling
Speaker 3: with President Trump this weekend. He's in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Speaker 3: And Philip Crowther is with us as well. He's an
Speaker 3: international correspondent for the Associated Press and joins us straight side.
Speaker 3: He's reporting from the strait of horror moves this morning,
Speaker 3: phil let me start with you if I could, and
Speaker 3: with that attack on Carg Island, I'm going to read
Speaker 3: a bit from the truth social post the President posted
Speaker 3: last night about that attack.
Speaker 6: He said, at my direction, the.
Speaker 3: US Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing
Speaker 3: raids in the history of the Middle East, the President's words,
Speaker 3: and totally obliterated every military target in Iran's Crown Jewel
Speaker 3: Carg Island. Our weapons, he writes, are the most powerful
Speaker 3: and sophisticated that the world has ever known.
Speaker 6: But for reasons of decency, I.
Speaker 3: Have chosen not to wipe out the oil infrastructure on
Speaker 3: the island. Would love to get your perspective from your
Speaker 3: vantage of the significance of that. We know that ninety
Speaker 3: percent of the oil that Iran produces goes through this
Speaker 3: hub off the coast of Iran. How big a deal
Speaker 3: is this and what is it signal to you that
Speaker 3: it wasn't a kind of full attack on the oil
Speaker 3: infrastructure on that island Fillip.
Speaker 7: Well, first of all, it's certainly considered an escalation by Iran,
Speaker 7: because shortly thereafter comes the statement from the Iranian Revolutionary
Speaker 7: Guards says that because those attacks were staged here in
Speaker 7: the United Arab Emirates, by the way, without proof from
Speaker 7: Iran that that was actually the case, but because of
Speaker 7: what they think were attacks that came from here, that
Speaker 7: cities and ports in the UAE are now not safe
Speaker 7: anymore and are legitimate targets. Iran also says that people
Speaker 7: here should now leave those places because attacks might be coming.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 7: It's worth saying that that has already happened. Remember that
Speaker 7: the likes of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the biggest cities
Speaker 7: in the United Arab Emirates, have already seen drone attacks
Speaker 7: since the start of the US Israeli war on Iran.
Speaker 6: But we have though, as part of.
Speaker 7: That Iranian escalation, at least in theory, we do have
Speaker 7: seen something concrete on the ground. Not too far from here,
Speaker 7: just south from here in Fujaira is a very large
Speaker 7: oil facility that was struck earlier this morning by what
Speaker 7: presumably were Iranian drones. We do not have a confirmation
Speaker 7: thereof but there were two large columns of smoke billowing
Speaker 7: from that oil facility just a short while ago. Now
Speaker 7: that is particularly important right now because with the Strait
Speaker 7: of Hormones and you can see the entrance of it
Speaker 7: right behind me, with it essentially being closed, well, there
Speaker 7: are some ways of bypassing it to a lesser degree.
Speaker 7: There are pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Speaker 7: Emirates that can bring oil away from the Persian Gulf
Speaker 7: and to other ports where oil can be picked up
Speaker 7: and where the Strait of Hormus does not need to
Speaker 7: be used, and Fujaira, just down the road from here,
Speaker 7: is one of those. Now a little note on the
Speaker 7: Strait of Hormus I just mentioned there is very little movement,
Speaker 7: and we have been watching it from our vantage point here,
Speaker 7: almost no movement whatsoever. We can see dozens of ships here.
Speaker 7: Now these are tankers that carry oil but also natural gas.
Speaker 7: They are waiting to enter the Strait of Hormus. And
Speaker 7: then there are hundreds in the Persian Gulf who are
Speaker 7: waiting to get out. So far we've seen very little movement.
Speaker 7: We do know that some China linked ships have made
Speaker 7: their way in and out of the Strait of Hormus,
Speaker 7: and Iranian ships as well, a tiny, tiny exception. They
Speaker 7: are essentially what we're looking at here is a pretty
Speaker 7: much a full on blockade of the Strait of law Moves.
Speaker 2: All right, I want to pivot to a different peninsula,
Speaker 2: and that's Jeff Mason, who is with the President of Florida.
Speaker 8: Jeff and your.
Speaker 2: Latest piece, you've got a good breakdown of what the
Speaker 2: war is costing so far. US officials told lawmakers in
Speaker 2: the first six days of the war with Ron costs
Speaker 2: more than eleven point three billion, says a person familiar
Speaker 2: with the matter, How do you think that cost is
Speaker 2: going to go down with both members of Congress and
Speaker 2: the American public? As this war, the President has said,
Speaker 2: could go long, may not go long.
Speaker 8: We're gonna have to wait till he feels it.
Speaker 6: Yeah. I asked him that last night on the TIPE.
Speaker 8: I heard you.
Speaker 2: I thought that was your voice, and I was listening
Speaker 2: to that this morning, Jeff Mason.
Speaker 9: Yes, you were spot on there, Christina, and he said
Speaker 9: he said it would last as long as necessary. And
Speaker 9: I think it's worth taking a pause to talk about
Speaker 9: that for a second, given that just a little over
Speaker 9: a week ago, I believe when he was starting to
Speaker 9: feel politically sensitive to the price of oil and gasoline,
Speaker 9: he suggested that the war was going to end quickly.
Speaker 6: He didn't give a timeline then.
Speaker 9: He hasn't given a timeline now, but he has walked
Speaker 9: away from that language and that action right there. Verbal
Speaker 9: decision anyways, is something that I think markets are going
Speaker 9: to be sensitive to. Going forward to your question about Congress. Look,
Speaker 9: the President already has a sales pitch to make to Congress,
Speaker 9: certainly to Democrats, which I think he's probably much less
Speaker 9: concerned about, but more generally, there's already some tension there
Speaker 9: about the fact that he has launched a war in
Speaker 9: the Middle East without seeking permission from Congress. The Congress,
Speaker 9: as you well know, also controls the purse strings and
Speaker 9: that amount of money is no doubt something that's going
Speaker 9: to get scrutinized. And as I like to mention because
Speaker 9: politics is my wheelhouse, this is an election year. And
Speaker 9: this is also a president who campaigned on and in
Speaker 9: fact started his first year talking about government waste and
Speaker 9: about cutting down on government spending.
Speaker 6: Obviously, a war costs money. A war does not achieved
Speaker 6: those particular goals. Dan Williams, let me turn to you.
Speaker 3: I want to ask ask about Israel's incursion into Lebanon,
Speaker 3: which is really escalated here and I'm very curious about
Speaker 3: the end goals for Israel. I know that the UN
Speaker 3: Secretary General Antonio gu Teresh was on the ground in
Speaker 3: Beirut in recent days. Let me play a bit of
Speaker 3: tape of what he said to both of those feuding parties,
Speaker 3: Lebanon and Israel.
Speaker 10: My strong appeal to postparties, to Asbola and to Israel
Speaker 10: is for a ceasefire, to stop the war and to
Speaker 10: pave the way to find a solution that would allow
Speaker 10: Lebanon to become a country independent with sovereignity and territory integrity.
Speaker 3: Respected the UN Secretary General saying he made that trip
Speaker 3: in solidarity his word with the Lebanese people. We see
Speaker 3: reporting from Axios this morning that Israel's planning to significantly
Speaker 3: expand its ground operation in Lebanon with the aim of
Speaker 3: dismantling Hespola's military infrastructure. That's according to Israeli and US
Speaker 3: officials Axio sites quote. This could be the largest Israeli
Speaker 3: ground invasion of its northern neighbor since two thousand and six,
Speaker 3: dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran. Dan,
Speaker 3: I'm very curious what you're hearing from Israeli officials about
Speaker 3: the objectives of this military campaign, this effort here to
Speaker 3: encroach on, perhaps seize more territory in Lebanon.
Speaker 11: All that's certainly the mood music. In fact, it was
Speaker 11: stated explicitly by the Israeli Defense Minister that, as he
Speaker 11: put it, the Lebanese state had failed to impose its
Speaker 11: authority over the entirety of Lebanon, meaning reining in that
Speaker 11: subnational group has bela, a group that's clearly a cats
Speaker 11: ull for a run, a group that reopened the Lebanese
Speaker 11: front with Israel in solidarity with Iran a couple of
Speaker 11: days into this Gulf War. This Iran war that we've
Speaker 11: all been covering and dealing with. So these Raelies haven't
Speaker 11: said explicitly how deeply they're willing to go into southern Lebanon.
Speaker 11: They have ordered out civilians. Hundreds of thousands civilians have
Speaker 11: now fled accordingly north of the Litani River, which is
Speaker 11: the natural demas location of southern Lebanon. It makes up
Speaker 11: something like ten percent of the Lebanese landmarks there. If
Speaker 11: you believe the access report, Israel is willing to go
Speaker 11: all the way up to the Litany Again. Perhaps there
Speaker 11: is some saber rattling here, some muscle flexing. Given that
Speaker 11: an invasion on that scale would really require a couple
Speaker 11: divisions worth of troops, these realies may need time to
Speaker 11: muster that number of men. They have been doing so
Speaker 11: in recent days. I'm not sure they would want to.
Speaker 11: I think they would still want to see the Lebanese
Speaker 11: state intervening, coming in at last moment to really impose
Speaker 11: its authority on Hesbela. But given that Heswelder, especially in
Speaker 11: recent days, has been escalating rocket attacks into northern Israel,
Speaker 11: Israel responding in kind, it would appear the escalation vecer
Speaker 11: is very very clear here.
Speaker 2: Pop I want to ask you because you're in the area.
Speaker 2: You were talking about those stranded ships, and later on
Speaker 2: the show, we're going to talk to you unofficial about
Speaker 2: what these international agencies are trying to do to help
Speaker 2: the stranded sailors. About twenty thousand stranded merchant marines and
Speaker 2: sailors on those vessels. Four have already been killed, seven injured,
Speaker 2: and at least seven ships have been hit either by
Speaker 2: flying debris or other explosions in the region. What are
Speaker 2: the different governments trying to do? Are those vessels just
Speaker 2: sitting out there? Are these sailors coming into port? Are
Speaker 2: they getting supplies out there? Can you give us kind
Speaker 2: of a situation?
Speaker 7: No, Look, the truth is there is pretty much no
Speaker 7: movement whatsoever. A colleague of mine, though today was in
Speaker 7: touch with one of the sailors on one of those tankers,
Speaker 7: in fact, waiting to go through the Strait of Hormones.
Speaker 7: He actually told him that he felt a little bit
Speaker 7: like a sitting duck and was a little bit afraid
Speaker 7: that the oil company or maybe the transport company wasn't
Speaker 7: clear there who he mentioned, was feeling the pressure for
Speaker 7: financial reasons to actually move through the Strait of hormones
Speaker 7: despite the dangers. So that is the situation these seamen
Speaker 7: are in. Essentially, the pressure to make money and to
Speaker 7: move through the Strait of Hormus is huge. It's just
Speaker 7: right now that because of these recent Iranian attacks, and
Speaker 7: there have been several of them as you mentioned, and
Speaker 7: the threats that more will be forthcoming, that the evaluation
Speaker 7: right now is simply it is too dangerous to move
Speaker 7: through the Strait of Hormus. Insurance companies, as I'm sure
Speaker 7: you have spoken about over the last two weeks, insurance
Speaker 7: companies have sky rocketing rates and they also, of course
Speaker 7: deem it very very dangerous indeed to pass through the
Speaker 7: Strait of Hormuz. So there is no movement here, not
Speaker 7: in and out of the strait, and not towards any
Speaker 7: ports either. Now generally these are ships and it is
Speaker 7: a generalization, but still they tend to have enough provisions
Speaker 7: on board once they get close to the Strait of
Speaker 7: Hormos because they know, especially during this time, that something
Speaker 7: bad could happen and then they might get stuck. So
Speaker 7: in that sense they should be Okay, Now, what are
Speaker 7: government's doing. Of course they want to get there, yeah,
Speaker 7: citizens out, but there's very little they can do that
Speaker 7: brings us onto an entirely different subject in a sense,
Speaker 7: is what can foreign governments do to actually get these
Speaker 7: ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, the
Speaker 7: Trump administration has spoken about the possibility of escorting ships.
Speaker 7: It's not something that is happening right now, and it's
Speaker 7: also something that is very hard to put into place.
Speaker 7: It is logistically very very hard. And it's also a
Speaker 7: military option in a sense, because as long as Iran
Speaker 7: has the power, the firepower to attack ships and to
Speaker 7: use drones on cities here in the United Arab Emirates, well,
Speaker 7: then it should also be powerful enough to take on
Speaker 7: the US Navy if it brings in escort ships. Now
Speaker 7: there's another attempt to France is involved in a potential
Speaker 7: international coalition to escort ships in and out of the
Speaker 7: Strait of Hormuz. Again, that takes weeks to set up.
Speaker 7: It's not going to happen anytime soon.
Speaker 3: Jeff Mason very quickly want to wrap up with you here.
Speaker 3: We got about a minute left and we're kind of
Speaker 3: threading through the conversation comments. We've gone from the President
Speaker 3: to Brian Kilmead and on President Trump's truth social site.
Speaker 3: He writes, the fake news media hates to report how
Speaker 3: well the US military has done against Iran, which is
Speaker 3: totally defeated, and wants a deal, but not a deal
Speaker 3: that I would accept. And we see this news that
Speaker 3: the US is sending twenty five hundred additional marines to
Speaker 3: the region. You're read on what that poor tends. It's
Speaker 3: going to take about a week for them to get there.
Speaker 3: What does it say about the President's appetite for a
Speaker 3: deal in the minute we have left?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 9: Number one, I would say that the President is telling
Speaker 9: the truth when he says the war's going to go
Speaker 9: on as long as necessary. It doesn't seem to me
Speaker 9: like he has an endgame in mind, and it does
Speaker 9: seem like he's prepared to increase resources to achieve the
Speaker 9: goals that he's looking for. I wouldn't take seriously what
Speaker 9: he or what Secretary Heigks has said yesterday about how
Speaker 9: the media should be covering the war. It's our job
Speaker 9: to cover it truthfully and factually and not take tips
Speaker 9: from the government. But I would say, from an analytical perspective,
Speaker 9: it is not unrealistic to conclude that they're committed for
Speaker 9: a long term, even if that has a negative impact
Speaker 9: on the economy and a negative impact on the president's
Speaker 9: political prospects in November.
Speaker 3: Jeff Mason, thank you very much. Jeff Mason, who covers
Speaker 3: the White House for us here at Bloomberg. Dan Williams,
Speaker 3: our Jerusalem reporter with us this morning. And Philip Crowther,
Speaker 3: who's with the AP on the straight of corn Mows,
Speaker 3: thank you very much.
Speaker 6: For the time.
Speaker 3: Thanks guys, stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 3: Right after this, the war in Iran continuing to ESK
Speaker 3: late and Wine, as we've been discussing so far this morning.
Speaker 3: President Trump taking to truth social late last night claiming
Speaker 3: iron had plans to take over the Middle East, obliterating Israel,
Speaker 3: but now quote just like Iran itself, those plans are
Speaker 3: now dead.
Speaker 8: All right.
Speaker 2: Joining us now is retired Colonel Joel Raeburn. He's a
Speaker 2: former member of the National Security Council staff. During President
Speaker 2: Trump's first administration. He was also Envoyd Assyria and a
Speaker 2: senior fellow at the Center for Peace and Security in
Speaker 2: the Middle East at the Hudston Hudson. Excuse me, I
Speaker 2: almost got through that whole title. At the Hudson Institute. Jill,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us. Given all your
Speaker 2: experience in the region and at the State Department, I
Speaker 2: do want to ask you your take on some of
Speaker 2: these evacuations we saw. It appears at least the embassy
Speaker 2: compound in Baghdad seems to have taken us strike this morning,
Speaker 2: there was smoke rising over that horizon. We've also got
Speaker 2: ordered departures in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Kutar, Saudi Arabia, UAE,
Speaker 2: and a regional consulate in Turkey. What does it do
Speaker 2: for State Department operations when you have so much going
Speaker 2: on in a region, you need all those people who
Speaker 2: know those countries, and you also need them out of
Speaker 2: harm's way.
Speaker 6: Well, good to be with you.
Speaker 12: Yeah, that's a tough situation because the Iranian regime has
Speaker 12: been targeting those diplomatic facilities. Because the Iranian regime doesn't
Speaker 12: really distinguish between military and civilian targets. They will target
Speaker 12: each indiscriminately as though they're equivalent. They don't respect that division,
Speaker 12: So our diplomats on the ground do have to be
Speaker 12: cognizant of that. It's not the first time that We've
Speaker 12: had to do this kind of order departure or authorized
Speaker 12: departure from some of these stations because it's the Iranians
Speaker 12: before who have threatened those facilities. So yeah, it cuts
Speaker 12: down on our diplomat's ability to do their work and
Speaker 12: engage with host nations in those places, but they have
Speaker 12: to be kept safe.
Speaker 3: I want to get your read on this story that's
Speaker 3: developing that the administration is sending twenty five hundred additional
Speaker 3: marines to the region in light of what's been happening
Speaker 3: over the last couple of weeks, and that will kind
Speaker 3: of add to the total fifty thousand American troops that
Speaker 3: are in the region right now.
Speaker 6: What does that portend to you? How do you read that?
Speaker 3: And then I'm curious as we listen to the President
Speaker 3: not ruling out the prospects there being boots on the
Speaker 3: ground unequivocally, does it concern you? Does it raise an
Speaker 3: eyebrow that this could be where we're headed if we
Speaker 3: have that many new troops headed to the region.
Speaker 12: Well, no, because in addition to being a state department,
Speaker 12: a former state imparted person in a former life for
Speaker 12: twenty six years, I was an army officer, and I
Speaker 12: was actually a military planner and analyst at US Central Command,
Speaker 12: the headquarters that is carrying out this campaign in lead
Speaker 12: for the United States, and so I was familiar back then,
Speaker 12: in the old olden days with an earlier version of
Speaker 12: this campaign plan and the idea of having a marine
Speaker 12: expeditionary unit to do the kind of operations that you
Speaker 12: would need to protect commercial vessels, commercial shipping going through
Speaker 12: the Straight of Hormos, to be able to do operations
Speaker 12: in the Persian Gulf literal, to protect shipping, to be
Speaker 12: able to would give the President, would give the Sentcom
Speaker 12: commander more options, and it actually signals, I think it's
Speaker 12: a good signal to the Runian regime leaders in Tehran
Speaker 12: that the President and Admiral Cooper are keeping that option open.
Speaker 12: That's precisely the kind of very well trained marine force
Speaker 12: that you would need in order to be able to
Speaker 12: seize threatening vessels, in order to be able to disrupt
Speaker 12: mind laying operations if the Iranian regime were to do that,
Speaker 12: or if they were want to try to seize some
Speaker 12: sort of Iranian island, maybe carg Island or other facilities
Speaker 12: like that. It's signaling that the US has that strategic option.
Speaker 2: Colonel, Since, as you're saying, this plan did exist during
Speaker 2: the first term, how closely is this administration's action following
Speaker 2: that plan and what comes next?
Speaker 12: Well, I don't have any inside information on that. Being retired,
Speaker 12: I'm out of the loop, so I can.
Speaker 2: You were in the loop the first time around. So
Speaker 2: so far is it playing out according to a plan?
Speaker 12: Well, it's so much, so much more advanced. I mean
Speaker 12: as a as someone who was formerly familiar with an
Speaker 12: earlier version of that plan. The military technology advances just
Speaker 12: in the fifteen years or so since I was involved
Speaker 12: in that sort of thing are just astonishing. And the
Speaker 12: military imbalance between the US and Israel on one side
Speaker 12: and the Runnie regime on the other is far wider
Speaker 12: than Syncom would have enjoyed back then under General Abaza,
Speaker 12: General Portrayus and so on. It's if you had told
Speaker 12: me in two thousand and nine that two weeks into
Speaker 12: this campaign plan, the running leadership would be decimated. Their
Speaker 12: ballistic missiles would be down by over ninety percent, They're
Speaker 12: drones down by over ninety percent. They would have no
Speaker 12: operable air force, navy, missile defense, and air defense. I'd
Speaker 12: have told you you were smoking something. It's just astonishing
Speaker 12: the military progress this being made. You know at that
Speaker 12: at an operational level, you talk about the military progress made.
Speaker 3: The President sat down with Brian Kilmead on his radio
Speaker 3: show a little earlier this week and talked about.
Speaker 6: What an endgame might look like. Let's take a listen
Speaker 6: to what he had to say to Brian. Kill meat
Speaker 6: with the greatest economy and histrue, do we still do?
Speaker 13: Oh?
Speaker 4: This will bounce right back when it's over, and I
Speaker 4: don't think it's going to be long when it's over.
Speaker 6: This is good. Abounce right back so fast. When are
Speaker 6: you going to know when it's over? When I feel it? Okay,
Speaker 6: fill it up my bones, colonel.
Speaker 3: I want to get your reaction to that last line,
Speaker 3: when he feels it in his bones. But you very
Speaker 3: clearly laid out that list of all of the defensive
Speaker 3: targets that have been hit by by the US and
Speaker 3: taken off line that Supreme Leader killed. As you mentioned,
Speaker 3: your sense from your experience in the first term and
Speaker 3: from what you've observed here over the last few weeks,
Speaker 3: of what the endgame is likely to be here and
Speaker 3: what the timeline this administration is working with.
Speaker 12: Well, there's a military endgame, there's a military state that's
Speaker 12: very clear. There's a political in state that's that's something different.
Speaker 12: On the military side. The objectives that they laid out
Speaker 12: the President's Secretary Rubio at the beginning of eliminating the
Speaker 12: nuclear program, ballistic missile and drone program, the ability for
Speaker 12: the running regime to use terrorist proxies outside their borders.
Speaker 12: Those are all well on their way to being accomplished.
Speaker 12: And then the further phase of essentially eliminating the Runnian
Speaker 12: regime's production capacity to be able to regenerate those kind
Speaker 12: of things if there is a cessation of hostilities with
Speaker 12: an Iranian regimes still there in place now, the political
Speaker 12: in state is still unclear, and it seems it seems
Speaker 12: to me as I was a staffer for President Trump,
Speaker 12: we all know the President is someone who likes to
Speaker 12: keep his strategic options open. He enjoys strategic ambiguity because
Speaker 12: it gives him leverage in negotiating outcomes, and I think
Speaker 12: he's still.
Speaker 6: Doing that here.
Speaker 12: Whether he's willing to tolerate an end of campaign with
Speaker 12: the rump Iranian regime still in place but greatly weakened
Speaker 12: with lacking the capacity to go on into the future
Speaker 12: is something he's keeping. He's keeping that option open's and
Speaker 12: that creates confusion on the Iranian regime side. I think
Speaker 12: that actually hinders their ability to respond, which is what
Speaker 12: you want, colonel quickly.
Speaker 8: Before we let you go.
Speaker 2: The Secretary Defense admitted in his press conference this week
Speaker 2: saying that I can't say that we anticipated necessarily that's
Speaker 2: how Iran would react. He was being asked about Iran's
Speaker 2: striking regional allies, which in his defense, I think did
Speaker 2: take quite a people, quite a lot of people, even.
Speaker 8: Regional experts, by surprise.
Speaker 2: Should the US have anticipated that, and how should the
Speaker 2: US respond to an Iran that is willing to strike
Speaker 2: friends and neighbors in the region.
Speaker 12: Well, I think when you're planning, when you're going through
Speaker 12: the permutations and possible scenarios, if you're planning out your
Speaker 12: war gaming a campaign plan like this, I think absolutely
Speaker 12: the planners would have had a scenario where they said,
Speaker 12: the Irani regime just lash out at the region around it.
Speaker 12: You would consider that, you would consider that a worst
Speaker 12: case scenario, but you'd also consider it I think low probability,
Speaker 12: because it's something that's so counterproductive to Iranian interests.
Speaker 6: It's harmed them so much.
Speaker 12: The entire rest of the Arab world and Turkey were
Speaker 12: drawn into a conflict that they had intended to stay
Speaker 12: on the sideline.
Speaker 3: Colonel, thank you very much, drawing from your expertise, so
Speaker 3: yes at ten Colm, as you mentioned, and on the
Speaker 3: NC as well.
Speaker 6: Grateful for your time on this morning. That's Rape Raber
Speaker 6: enjoying us here on Bloomberg this week.
Speaker 8: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 2: Right after this, a several days ago, as part of
Speaker 2: our c Sweet Saturday segments, we spoke to the CEO
Speaker 2: of Train Technologies, Dave Ragnery, about his company and how
Speaker 2: they are transforming in an ever changing climate.
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Speaker 14: had just a great run. I mean, our compound annual
Speaker 14: growth rate on the top line is eleven percent, a
Speaker 14: little but over eleven percent, and on the bottom line
Speaker 14: it's over twenty percent. So I'm super proud of what
Speaker 14: our team has been able to accomplish. And as I
Speaker 14: always tell people, we've had a great run over the
Speaker 14: last five plus years. But the future looks even brighter
Speaker 14: than what I saw five years ago.
Speaker 2: And the company itself, I mean, I'm familiar with you
Speaker 2: guys from your home product, which is a smaller portion
Speaker 2: of your portfolio, but the company itself has existed in
Speaker 2: some form since nineteen thirteen, and you've been around well
Speaker 2: almost that long. I'm just kidding, but you can start
Speaker 2: out at the company, not an existence.
Speaker 6: It's got a compliment.
Speaker 14: When I came down, someone said you look younger than me.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I meant duration you've been at the company,
Speaker 2: but you started.
Speaker 8: As an intern.
Speaker 14: I started as an intern back in nineteen eighty five.
Speaker 14: Just to just to date me a bit here, but yeah,
Speaker 14: I mean, when I came out of college, I was
Speaker 14: going to go into investment banking and I decided, no, no,
Speaker 14: I'll take this opportunity and go learn a business. And
Speaker 14: I figured I'd be there for just a short period
Speaker 14: of time, but I just had so many different roles
Speaker 14: in the company. I kept advancing to different areas of
Speaker 14: the company. And you know, people always ask me, well,
Speaker 14: how'd you get to where we are? Is it luck
Speaker 14: or hard work? I tell them what, the luckier I get,
Speaker 14: the harder I work, right, But it's just you know,
Speaker 14: I've had the opportunity to run all the businesses that
Speaker 14: we have in the company today, so I know them
Speaker 14: very very well. And it's just such a great company.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 14: When I started as CEO, and I've been the CEO
Speaker 14: now for coming up on my fifth year, I knew
Speaker 14: we were a great operator, and I knew we were
Speaker 14: a great innovator, but we weren't thought of as a
Speaker 14: growth company. Why not because we weren't growing at the
Speaker 14: rates that we should be growing at. And I knew
Speaker 14: we had every opportunity to be this growth company. And
Speaker 14: trust me, you don't become a growth company just because
Speaker 14: the CEO says it, puts it out a PowerPoint and
Speaker 14: say hey, let's become a growth company. Yeah, it doesn't
Speaker 14: work quite that way. But one of the things that
Speaker 14: we did was we had to change the mindset. So
Speaker 14: we have as I'm sure, most companies do. We have
Speaker 14: an annual operating plan and that kind of sets every
Speaker 14: business's plan for the year. And I won't say it
Speaker 14: was a negotiation, but it kind of felt like it
Speaker 14: at times, like people wanted a lower number because nobody
Speaker 14: wants to miss their forecast. And early on we changed
Speaker 14: it and we basically said, so the business. The first
Speaker 14: business comes in and presents their operating plan to us,
Speaker 14: and that was like a two or three percent growth, right,
Speaker 14: which is you know, incremental. So the assignment that they
Speaker 14: took away, I said, come back in two weeks and
Speaker 14: I want you to tell us, my CFO and myself
Speaker 14: what you need to invest to grow at fifteen.
Speaker 8: Percent for the fences.
Speaker 14: Yeah, and so you know, here we are so role
Speaker 14: fall where each business comes back two weeks later and
Speaker 14: they come back with these investments and my CFO is
Speaker 14: kicking me under the table, say, Dave, I don't know
Speaker 14: if we can afford all these I said, no, it's not.
Speaker 14: They'll never be able to spend that amount of money.
Speaker 14: But by the way, I need a mindset shift change.
Speaker 14: And that was kind of the catalyst for us to
Speaker 14: start thinking about, hey, we can be a growth company.
Speaker 6: We are going to invest. You mentioned your optimism for
Speaker 6: the future.
Speaker 3: We're at a moment where so many businesses are being
Speaker 3: disrupted by AI or have the potentially be disrupted by AI.
Speaker 6: Talk about your.
Speaker 3: Involvement in this boom and data centers that I mentioned
Speaker 3: just a moment ago. It's sufice to say you might
Speaker 3: not have predicted that a few years back, but this
Speaker 3: has become a huge growth opportunity for your huge driver
Speaker 3: of the growth that you're talking about.
Speaker 14: Sure, I mean, look, data centers. We've always been strong
Speaker 14: in the data center vertical, okay, but we're also very
Speaker 14: strong in other core verticals and we track fourteen different
Speaker 14: verticals and data centers is one. But data centers has
Speaker 14: been very, very strong. And we're part of the thermal
Speaker 14: management system within a data center. So data centers produce
Speaker 14: a lot of heat. That heat has to be removed
Speaker 14: the we're the company that helps the data center OEMs
Speaker 14: remove that heat, and it's really through Childer Technologies. It's
Speaker 14: through what they call CDUs or cooling distribution units fan walls.
Speaker 14: There's lots of different components that make up that thermal
Speaker 14: management system. But we're a leader in that space. But
Speaker 14: We've been a leader in that space for decades.
Speaker 2: This is kind of controversial because these these data centers
Speaker 2: are going into areas and they're driving up energy costs.
Speaker 2: And as much as people like to chat GPT things,
Speaker 2: they also not like to not pay a ton for
Speaker 2: energy bills.
Speaker 8: Is there a balance to be struck there?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 14: I believe there is because well, like I said, we're
Speaker 14: very strong in other verticals, right, and we need the
Speaker 14: intelligence from data centers to help us make buildings smarter.
Speaker 14: And if you think most buildings, they use about forty
Speaker 14: percent of the energy in a building. And by the way,
Speaker 14: globally thirty percent of all energy is for buildings, but
Speaker 14: forty percent of that is for heating and cooling.
Speaker 8: Wow.
Speaker 6: And we know most buildings.
Speaker 14: Operate very inefficiently, like thirty percent inefficiently a very conservative number.
Speaker 14: We've developed algorithms to make buildings smarter and this is
Speaker 14: why I'm so excited about the future.
Speaker 3: They talk a bit about who you're hiring to work
Speaker 3: for your company, So I mentioned forty five thousand employees.
Speaker 3: Are you able to find the kind of workers that
Speaker 3: you need in this environment? I know that there are
Speaker 3: reports that this is a difficult labor market for a
Speaker 3: lot of people. Who are you looking for and what
Speaker 3: is the training process like for those new Employeesah, great question.
Speaker 14: Look five years ago we had when we started as
Speaker 14: Training Technologies, or six years ago now we had thirty
Speaker 14: five thousand employees. Today we have over forty five thousand employees.
Speaker 14: So growth companies create job opportunities. I'll start with that. Now,
Speaker 14: you need to be able to recruit the right talent
Speaker 14: like service technicians. Right, we're always looking for great service technicians.
Speaker 14: And we learned during the COVID period that it's really
Speaker 14: hard to recruit these positions and find the right talent.
Speaker 14: So we developed an apprenticeship program, and today the apprenticeship
Speaker 14: program is now backed by the Department of Labor. I
Speaker 14: believe we have about four hundred employees that are part
Speaker 14: of this apprenticeship program. And by the way, depending on
Speaker 14: your experience, this apprenticeship program could be two years to
Speaker 14: four years. And here we're just changing lives of people.
Speaker 14: We now use our hourly workforce as a place to
Speaker 14: recruit for the apprenticeship program for technicians.
Speaker 6: Whether it works or not, you're going to learn.
Speaker 14: A lot by saying yes and understanding what someone else's
Speaker 14: problems are right, and you know that's our whole mindset.
Speaker 14: And we love being close to customers, we love working
Speaker 14: towards yes, and we love our innovation.
Speaker 6: Dave, thank you very much, appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Thank you for being here, for being our very first
Speaker 2: CEO Saturday c sueet Saturday.
Speaker 14: Guests, and I feel privilege to be here, So thank
Speaker 14: you very much, and thanks for your time today and
Speaker 14: good luck with your show.
Speaker 6: Thank you for that.
Speaker 3: When we come back, the point of News Quiz, take
Speaker 3: us with you no matter where you go. You can
Speaker 3: watch us on Bloomberg TV, listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream
Speaker 3: us live on the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 6: Wherever you are, We're there. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 15: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 13: Right after this, welcome back now for this weekend's pointed
Speaker 13: News Quiz, the News Quiz for rist taker.
Speaker 3: I'm very excited about this as I was last week
Speaker 3: until I lost the first and.
Speaker 2: That's true if you.
Speaker 8: Did lose to me last week.
Speaker 2: However, I have not studied as much as I did
Speaker 2: last week, so this may be your week.
Speaker 3: There are three categories as usual, Lisa, Matteo quiz Master extraordinary.
Speaker 6: Yes, what are.
Speaker 11: Yes?
Speaker 4: I know? I see it in your face, David. Okay,
Speaker 4: So you basically have thirty chips in front of you,
Speaker 4: each of you. So Christina has thirty, David has thirty.
Speaker 15: Okay.
Speaker 4: Now, based on those three categories, you're going to place
Speaker 4: your chips where you think you know the best. If
Speaker 4: you get the answer wrong, you hand over those chips,
Speaker 4: you bet to me yes, okay, and you lose them
Speaker 4: and you lose some points. Okay, So let's get to
Speaker 4: our categories. This is what David was Okay. The first
Speaker 4: category is oil.
Speaker 6: Oil, We've been talking about it at.
Speaker 8: Some length, is going to get extra embarrassing.
Speaker 6: This should be in good position for this one.
Speaker 4: Second category Asia politics, okay. And third category is Hollywood.
Speaker 4: You know, oscars around the corner.
Speaker 13: Guy.
Speaker 3: You are already demonstrated how little I know about this.
Speaker 4: You have other strength, all right, okay, So Christina, you're
Speaker 4: going ten across I know.
Speaker 6: Okay, the first one. David's going into twenty on that. Okay,
Speaker 6: oil again, we've talked about it a lot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel okay, I know, I know, but I'm nervous.
Speaker 6: But I'm not an expert on apropol.
Speaker 15: Are you ready for this question?
Speaker 6: You maybe disappointed? Okay, I'm ready.
Speaker 4: Okay, here you go play with us along at home
Speaker 4: too as well. Okay, So question is oil and gas
Speaker 4: Giant Shell agree to sell which brand to the private
Speaker 4: equity firm Mono Mae for one point three billion dollars?
Speaker 15: How are you feeling about those.
Speaker 3: Twenty my gosh, I was not expecting a.
Speaker 6: I really have no idea which brand? Which Brandy?
Speaker 15: Think of?
Speaker 8: That's the thing of subsidiary.
Speaker 15: Correct which which brand?
Speaker 6: Okay?
Speaker 15: They agreed to sell it? Yeah, all right, private Monomoy Montamoy.
Speaker 15: Okay is that a hint? No, but it's a brand
Speaker 15: that you're may be familiar with. If you get an
Speaker 15: oil change.
Speaker 6: Oh okay, all right, you know you feel better?
Speaker 15: Okay, okay, okay, ready.
Speaker 6: Let slip a regular oil when you changed.
Speaker 4: You just flip it valel valveeln. Oh and what do
Speaker 4: you have, Jeffery love Christine.
Speaker 2: It's like the only thing I know about oil changes.
Speaker 15: This is the best game ever.
Speaker 6: The only thing you know about oil changes is Jiffy.
Speaker 8: And then I never get them done.
Speaker 4: And then my brother, yea, you can I take your
Speaker 4: twenty day.
Speaker 6: Okay, we're going to have to rework this game.
Speaker 4: I'm just going to sit out here and do this. Yes,
Speaker 4: count them up, Okay, gloat. Here we go, Asia politicians,
Speaker 4: you may you may recoup your winnings here.
Speaker 6: Okay, ready, let's see I bet nothing.
Speaker 15: Here we go. Belendra Shah.
Speaker 4: A rapper turned politician is on a course to become
Speaker 4: the prime minister of which country?
Speaker 1: Sha?
Speaker 4: Yes, a rapper turned politician? All right, the prime minister
Speaker 4: of which country? On course to become the prime minister
Speaker 4: country in Asia?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Thank you, of course, Asia politics.
Speaker 15: That was not a good hint.
Speaker 4: Okay, here we are Thailand, David Nepal. Christie Paul is correct,
Speaker 4: she's kind of again. Oh you didn't bet anything on
Speaker 4: that one.
Speaker 6: I didn't.
Speaker 2: But I only know that because those gen Z uprisings,
Speaker 2: and it seems very appropriate that they would then elect
Speaker 2: a rapper.
Speaker 6: Yes, in touch with Z around the world, you know, me.
Speaker 8: And the youths so cool.
Speaker 15: Okay, here we go.
Speaker 8: There are the losses.
Speaker 6: They're very very cool. I would like to see you
Speaker 6: rocking those mayhap.
Speaker 15: All right, David, I feel you're going to do better
Speaker 15: in Hollywood.
Speaker 6: I feel like everyone is so disappointed.
Speaker 4: But you bet ten? Okay, t you bet ten? Okay,
Speaker 4: let's see. The question is Netflix will pay up to
Speaker 4: six hundred million dollars for Interpositive. It's an AI movie
Speaker 4: making company founded by which.
Speaker 6: I hope that you do too, not really which actor?
Speaker 15: Six hundred million dollars?
Speaker 6: Can I spell it? Money? I can? I think so?
Speaker 15: She's writing furiously Christina can okay?
Speaker 6: All right, ready, I'm ready it right, David? Would you
Speaker 6: write Ben Affleck?
Speaker 13: Ah, Christina, Timothy Chambo Lama, It's.
Speaker 3: So hard to say.
Speaker 6: It is Ben Affleck so much? Yes, myself story this week?
Speaker 15: You got that wrong hand over your ten?
Speaker 6: Wait?
Speaker 2: Ben Affleck is doing movie making AI.
Speaker 4: He has a company AI. Netflix bought it for six
Speaker 4: hundred million dollars. Okay, nothing but okay, okay, are we ready.
Speaker 15: For a bonus?
Speaker 6: And bonus? Everything is great again for me?
Speaker 13: Yeah?
Speaker 15: I might give you ten back. I don't know.
Speaker 4: I'll think about right to make it time time okay, Okay,
Speaker 4: I'll give you ten back if you get this one.
Speaker 4: Because it's food and beverage is the last category. Okay, both,
Speaker 4: we're glad to know. Uh swig, have you heard of
Speaker 4: this one? It has nearly We're off to a good
Speaker 4: start has nearly one hundred and fifty stores specializes in
Speaker 4: which type of soda using flavored syrups, juices, and cream.
Speaker 6: Okay, all right, your kids.
Speaker 15: Have to know this. My daughter loves this thing.
Speaker 6: Well, I don't know remember surge that I love?
Speaker 8: See, it was so great.
Speaker 6: I don't know what happened to that. Okay, this is swig.
Speaker 15: It's on time, right, Okay, ready you guys.
Speaker 3: Yes, probiotics, soda, salty, no salty sodas.
Speaker 15: Dirty soda? Do you know the dirty somar?
Speaker 4: Tell me about Mountain West, Texas. The Hulu reality show
Speaker 4: The Secret.
Speaker 15: Lives of Mormon Wives have made it popular.
Speaker 8: I do.
Speaker 12: Okay.
Speaker 4: The winner is Christina, Yes, twenty again for the second
Speaker 4: week in a row.
Speaker 8: That's two to nothing.
Speaker 2: But I will say you did beat me in almost
Speaker 2: every rehearsal, so it's just you'll come.
Speaker 3: Back all he's feeling good, listen to thank you. That's
Speaker 3: all I can do on the show is try. You
Speaker 3: can test your knowledge on all ten questions on the
Speaker 3: pointed quiz. If I have no shame, I will go
Speaker 3: do that. After the show. You can take it at
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com slash pointed. You can find it on
Speaker 3: the Business app as well.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend podcast.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to tune in live for the show every
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern.
Speaker 3: We're on Bloomberg Television Radio and the Bloomberg Business App,
Speaker 3: bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics,
Speaker 3: lifestyle and culture.