WEBVTT - Trump Strikes Iran’s Kharg Oil Hub; War Enters Third Week 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:10.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:15.920 This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo. 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.560 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:20.959 the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.479 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.800 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.960 every Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Easter. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.760 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business app, 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:37.600 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:39.120 lifestyle and culture. 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:43.120 The US is entering the third week of its war 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.960 with Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegsett slammed Iranian leadership and 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:50.120 questioned if the new Ayatola is up for leading the country. 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:55.000 Ron's leadership is in no better shape. Desperate and hiding. 0:00:55.040 --> 0:01:01.280 They've gone underground, cowering. That's what rats do we know? 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:05.480 The new so called not so supreme leader is wounded 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:09.920 and likely disfigured. He put out of statement yesterday a 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:14.080 week one actually, but there was no voice and there 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:15.000 was no video. 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:18.560 It was a written statement. He called for unity. 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.680 Apparently killing tens of thousands of protesters is his kind 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:26.680 of unity. Iran has plenty of cameras and plenty of 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.399 voice recorders. Why a written statement. 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:32.680 Jordian Us. This morning, Bloomberg Jerusalem reporter Dan Williams. 0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:35.600 We've got Bloomberg's Washington correspondent Jeff Mason, who is traveling 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:38.280 with President Trump this weekend. He's in West Palm Beach, Florida. 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:40.160 And Philip Crowther is with us as well. He's an 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:43.520 international correspondent for the Associated Press and joins us straight side. 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:45.639 He's reporting from the strait of horror moves this morning, 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:48.200 phil let me start with you if I could, and 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:50.200 with that attack on Carg Island, I'm going to read 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.640 a bit from the truth social post the President posted 0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:54.280 last night about that attack. 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:55.800 He said, at my direction, the. 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.639 US Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:01.560 raids in the history of the Middle East, the President's words, 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:05.840 and totally obliterated every military target in Iran's Crown Jewel 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:08.720 Carg Island. Our weapons, he writes, are the most powerful 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:10.760 and sophisticated that the world has ever known. 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:12.960 But for reasons of decency, I. 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:15.880 Have chosen not to wipe out the oil infrastructure on 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.600 the island. Would love to get your perspective from your 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:20.680 vantage of the significance of that. We know that ninety 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:23.080 percent of the oil that Iran produces goes through this 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:25.600 hub off the coast of Iran. How big a deal 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:27.720 is this and what is it signal to you that 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:29.919 it wasn't a kind of full attack on the oil 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:31.520 infrastructure on that island Fillip. 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:37.440 Well, first of all, it's certainly considered an escalation by Iran, 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:42.480 because shortly thereafter comes the statement from the Iranian Revolutionary 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:46.720 Guards says that because those attacks were staged here in 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:49.880 the United Arab Emirates, by the way, without proof from 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.120 Iran that that was actually the case, but because of 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.520 what they think were attacks that came from here, that 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:59.359 cities and ports in the UAE are now not safe 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:03.720 anymore and are legitimate targets. Iran also says that people 0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:08.840 here should now leave those places because attacks might be coming. 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:09.280 Now. 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:12.280 It's worth saying that that has already happened. Remember that 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:15.320 the likes of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the biggest cities 0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:18.800 in the United Arab Emirates, have already seen drone attacks 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:23.040 since the start of the US Israeli war on Iran. 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:25.359 But we have though, as part of. 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:27.960 That Iranian escalation, at least in theory, we do have 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:31.360 seen something concrete on the ground. Not too far from here, 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:34.480 just south from here in Fujaira is a very large 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:39.200 oil facility that was struck earlier this morning by what 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:43.440 presumably were Iranian drones. We do not have a confirmation 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:47.520 thereof but there were two large columns of smoke billowing 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:51.640 from that oil facility just a short while ago. Now 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.960 that is particularly important right now because with the Strait 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:56.920 of Hormones and you can see the entrance of it 0:03:57.000 --> 0:04:00.800 right behind me, with it essentially being closed, well, there 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:05.000 are some ways of bypassing it to a lesser degree. 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:08.320 There are pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:12.400 Emirates that can bring oil away from the Persian Gulf 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:16.880 and to other ports where oil can be picked up 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.120 and where the Strait of Hormus does not need to 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:21.600 be used, and Fujaira, just down the road from here, 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:24.680 is one of those. Now a little note on the 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.279 Strait of Hormus I just mentioned there is very little movement, 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:29.839 and we have been watching it from our vantage point here, 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:34.000 almost no movement whatsoever. We can see dozens of ships here. 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:39.640 Now these are tankers that carry oil but also natural gas. 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:42.400 They are waiting to enter the Strait of Hormus. And 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:44.760 then there are hundreds in the Persian Gulf who are 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:48.080 waiting to get out. So far we've seen very little movement. 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:51.120 We do know that some China linked ships have made 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:53.240 their way in and out of the Strait of Hormus, 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:57.680 and Iranian ships as well, a tiny, tiny exception. They 0:04:57.720 --> 0:05:01.120 are essentially what we're looking at here is a pretty 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:03.599 much a full on blockade of the Strait of law Moves. 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:06.040 All right, I want to pivot to a different peninsula, 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:08.480 and that's Jeff Mason, who is with the President of Florida. 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:09.880 Jeff and your. 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:11.719 Latest piece, you've got a good breakdown of what the 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:15.200 war is costing so far. US officials told lawmakers in 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:16.800 the first six days of the war with Ron costs 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:20.279 more than eleven point three billion, says a person familiar 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:23.039 with the matter, How do you think that cost is 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:25.719 going to go down with both members of Congress and 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:28.640 the American public? As this war, the President has said, 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:30.320 could go long, may not go long. 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:31.680 We're gonna have to wait till he feels it. 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:34.920 Yeah. I asked him that last night on the TIPE. 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:35.320 I heard you. 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:37.159 I thought that was your voice, and I was listening 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:38.400 to that this morning, Jeff Mason. 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:41.520 Yes, you were spot on there, Christina, and he said 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:44.359 he said it would last as long as necessary. And 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:47.320 I think it's worth taking a pause to talk about 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:49.240 that for a second, given that just a little over 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:51.760 a week ago, I believe when he was starting to 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:55.360 feel politically sensitive to the price of oil and gasoline, 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:58.840 he suggested that the war was going to end quickly. 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:00.880 He didn't give a timeline then. 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:03.239 He hasn't given a timeline now, but he has walked 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:07.600 away from that language and that action right there. Verbal 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:11.600 decision anyways, is something that I think markets are going 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:15.440 to be sensitive to. Going forward to your question about Congress. Look, 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:18.600 the President already has a sales pitch to make to Congress, 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.960 certainly to Democrats, which I think he's probably much less 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:24.920 concerned about, but more generally, there's already some tension there 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:27.240 about the fact that he has launched a war in 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:31.040 the Middle East without seeking permission from Congress. The Congress, 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:34.000 as you well know, also controls the purse strings and 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:36.920 that amount of money is no doubt something that's going 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:39.559 to get scrutinized. And as I like to mention because 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:43.760 politics is my wheelhouse, this is an election year. And 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:46.560 this is also a president who campaigned on and in 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:50.120 fact started his first year talking about government waste and 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:51.919 about cutting down on government spending. 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:56.080 Obviously, a war costs money. A war does not achieved 0:06:56.520 --> 0:06:59.520 those particular goals. Dan Williams, let me turn to you. 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:01.960 I want to ask ask about Israel's incursion into Lebanon, 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:04.520 which is really escalated here and I'm very curious about 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:07.040 the end goals for Israel. I know that the UN 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.440 Secretary General Antonio gu Teresh was on the ground in 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:11.800 Beirut in recent days. Let me play a bit of 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:14.240 tape of what he said to both of those feuding parties, 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:15.200 Lebanon and Israel. 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:22.400 My strong appeal to postparties, to Asbola and to Israel 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:27.520 is for a ceasefire, to stop the war and to 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:32.320 pave the way to find a solution that would allow 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:41.600 Lebanon to become a country independent with sovereignity and territory integrity. 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.840 Respected the UN Secretary General saying he made that trip 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:48.120 in solidarity his word with the Lebanese people. We see 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:51.120 reporting from Axios this morning that Israel's planning to significantly 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.520 expand its ground operation in Lebanon with the aim of 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:57.840 dismantling Hespola's military infrastructure. That's according to Israeli and US 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:01.120 officials Axio sites quote. This could be the largest Israeli 0:08:01.160 --> 0:08:04.040 ground invasion of its northern neighbor since two thousand and six, 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:09.040 dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran. Dan, 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:11.520 I'm very curious what you're hearing from Israeli officials about 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:15.520 the objectives of this military campaign, this effort here to 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:18.000 encroach on, perhaps seize more territory in Lebanon. 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:21.360 All that's certainly the mood music. In fact, it was 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:25.160 stated explicitly by the Israeli Defense Minister that, as he 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:28.640 put it, the Lebanese state had failed to impose its 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:32.199 authority over the entirety of Lebanon, meaning reining in that 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.600 subnational group has bela, a group that's clearly a cats 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:39.200 ull for a run, a group that reopened the Lebanese 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:42.160 front with Israel in solidarity with Iran a couple of 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:45.520 days into this Gulf War. This Iran war that we've 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:48.400 all been covering and dealing with. So these Raelies haven't 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:52.480 said explicitly how deeply they're willing to go into southern Lebanon. 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:56.120 They have ordered out civilians. Hundreds of thousands civilians have 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:59.320 now fled accordingly north of the Litani River, which is 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:02.800 the natural demas location of southern Lebanon. It makes up 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:06.240 something like ten percent of the Lebanese landmarks there. If 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:08.640 you believe the access report, Israel is willing to go 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.400 all the way up to the Litany Again. Perhaps there 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:17.160 is some saber rattling here, some muscle flexing. Given that 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:20.240 an invasion on that scale would really require a couple 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:23.800 divisions worth of troops, these realies may need time to 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:27.040 muster that number of men. They have been doing so 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:30.160 in recent days. I'm not sure they would want to. 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:32.080 I think they would still want to see the Lebanese 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:36.160 state intervening, coming in at last moment to really impose 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:39.480 its authority on Hesbela. But given that Heswelder, especially in 0:09:39.520 --> 0:09:43.520 recent days, has been escalating rocket attacks into northern Israel, 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:47.040 Israel responding in kind, it would appear the escalation vecer 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:48.199 is very very clear here. 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:50.960 Pop I want to ask you because you're in the area. 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:52.960 You were talking about those stranded ships, and later on 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:55.280 the show, we're going to talk to you unofficial about 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:57.680 what these international agencies are trying to do to help 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:02.320 the stranded sailors. About twenty thousand stranded merchant marines and 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:05.440 sailors on those vessels. Four have already been killed, seven injured, 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:07.760 and at least seven ships have been hit either by 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:11.440 flying debris or other explosions in the region. What are 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:13.720 the different governments trying to do? Are those vessels just 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:16.680 sitting out there? Are these sailors coming into port? Are 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:18.679 they getting supplies out there? Can you give us kind 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:19.280 of a situation? 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:24.040 No, Look, the truth is there is pretty much no 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:28.120 movement whatsoever. A colleague of mine, though today was in 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:33.080 touch with one of the sailors on one of those tankers, 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:35.840 in fact, waiting to go through the Strait of Hormones. 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.400 He actually told him that he felt a little bit 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:41.400 like a sitting duck and was a little bit afraid 0:10:41.640 --> 0:10:45.200 that the oil company or maybe the transport company wasn't 0:10:45.240 --> 0:10:49.000 clear there who he mentioned, was feeling the pressure for 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:52.720 financial reasons to actually move through the Strait of hormones 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:57.240 despite the dangers. So that is the situation these seamen 0:10:57.400 --> 0:11:01.000 are in. Essentially, the pressure to make money and to 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:04.080 move through the Strait of Hormus is huge. It's just 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:08.480 right now that because of these recent Iranian attacks, and 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:10.480 there have been several of them as you mentioned, and 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:13.720 the threats that more will be forthcoming, that the evaluation 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:16.960 right now is simply it is too dangerous to move 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.960 through the Strait of Hormus. Insurance companies, as I'm sure 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:23.079 you have spoken about over the last two weeks, insurance 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:27.800 companies have sky rocketing rates and they also, of course 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:31.200 deem it very very dangerous indeed to pass through the 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:33.679 Strait of Hormuz. So there is no movement here, not 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:35.920 in and out of the strait, and not towards any 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:39.439 ports either. Now generally these are ships and it is 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:43.719 a generalization, but still they tend to have enough provisions 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:45.920 on board once they get close to the Strait of 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:50.640 Hormos because they know, especially during this time, that something 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.560 bad could happen and then they might get stuck. So 0:11:53.679 --> 0:11:57.160 in that sense they should be Okay, Now, what are 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:00.240 government's doing. Of course they want to get there, yeah, 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:03.240 citizens out, but there's very little they can do that 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.760 brings us onto an entirely different subject in a sense, 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.800 is what can foreign governments do to actually get these 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:11.319 ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, the 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:15.040 Trump administration has spoken about the possibility of escorting ships. 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.560 It's not something that is happening right now, and it's 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.480 also something that is very hard to put into place. 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.960 It is logistically very very hard. And it's also a 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.960 military option in a sense, because as long as Iran 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:30.320 has the power, the firepower to attack ships and to 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.559 use drones on cities here in the United Arab Emirates, well, 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:35.840 then it should also be powerful enough to take on 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.760 the US Navy if it brings in escort ships. Now 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.000 there's another attempt to France is involved in a potential 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:44.719 international coalition to escort ships in and out of the 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:48.120 Strait of Hormuz. Again, that takes weeks to set up. 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:49.720 It's not going to happen anytime soon. 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:51.920 Jeff Mason very quickly want to wrap up with you here. 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:53.400 We got about a minute left and we're kind of 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:55.880 threading through the conversation comments. We've gone from the President 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.680 to Brian Kilmead and on President Trump's truth social site. 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:01.240 He writes, the fake news media hates to report how 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.640 well the US military has done against Iran, which is 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:06.240 totally defeated, and wants a deal, but not a deal 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:08.960 that I would accept. And we see this news that 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.600 the US is sending twenty five hundred additional marines to 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:14.200 the region. You're read on what that poor tends. It's 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:16.480 going to take about a week for them to get there. 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:18.520 What does it say about the President's appetite for a 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:19.680 deal in the minute we have left? 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:20.760 Well? 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:23.040 Number one, I would say that the President is telling 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:25.560 the truth when he says the war's going to go 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:28.480 on as long as necessary. It doesn't seem to me 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.000 like he has an endgame in mind, and it does 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:35.240 seem like he's prepared to increase resources to achieve the 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.920 goals that he's looking for. I wouldn't take seriously what 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.679 he or what Secretary Heigks has said yesterday about how 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:42.559 the media should be covering the war. It's our job 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.360 to cover it truthfully and factually and not take tips 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:49.000 from the government. But I would say, from an analytical perspective, 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:53.920 it is not unrealistic to conclude that they're committed for 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:56.760 a long term, even if that has a negative impact 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.560 on the economy and a negative impact on the president's 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:01.240 political prospects in November. 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.120 Jeff Mason, thank you very much. Jeff Mason, who covers 0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:04.920 the White House for us here at Bloomberg. Dan Williams, 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.839 our Jerusalem reporter with us this morning. And Philip Crowther, 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:09.560 who's with the AP on the straight of corn Mows, 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:10.240 thank you very much. 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:10.480 For the time. 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.920 Thanks guys, stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:29.520 Right after this, the war in Iran continuing to ESK 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:31.600 late and Wine, as we've been discussing so far this morning. 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.680 President Trump taking to truth social late last night claiming 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.960 iron had plans to take over the Middle East, obliterating Israel, 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:41.320 but now quote just like Iran itself, those plans are 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:42.080 now dead. 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:42.480 All right. 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.360 Joining us now is retired Colonel Joel Raeburn. He's a 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:47.680 former member of the National Security Council staff. During President 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:50.640 Trump's first administration. He was also Envoyd Assyria and a 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.120 senior fellow at the Center for Peace and Security in 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.520 the Middle East at the Hudston Hudson. Excuse me, I 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:58.680 almost got through that whole title. At the Hudson Institute. Jill, 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.480 thank you so much for joining us. Given all your 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:03.640 experience in the region and at the State Department, I 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:05.760 do want to ask you your take on some of 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:08.600 these evacuations we saw. It appears at least the embassy 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.320 compound in Baghdad seems to have taken us strike this morning, 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:14.400 there was smoke rising over that horizon. We've also got 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:19.560 ordered departures in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Kutar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.440 and a regional consulate in Turkey. What does it do 0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:26.320 for State Department operations when you have so much going 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:28.000 on in a region, you need all those people who 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.160 know those countries, and you also need them out of 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:30.720 harm's way. 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:33.360 Well, good to be with you. 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:37.280 Yeah, that's a tough situation because the Iranian regime has 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:40.880 been targeting those diplomatic facilities. Because the Iranian regime doesn't 0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:44.720 really distinguish between military and civilian targets. They will target 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:49.520 each indiscriminately as though they're equivalent. They don't respect that division, 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:51.480 So our diplomats on the ground do have to be 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:55.200 cognizant of that. It's not the first time that We've 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:57.920 had to do this kind of order departure or authorized 0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:01.840 departure from some of these stations because it's the Iranians 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:05.640 before who have threatened those facilities. So yeah, it cuts 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.320 down on our diplomat's ability to do their work and 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.520 engage with host nations in those places, but they have 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:12.480 to be kept safe. 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:14.440 I want to get your read on this story that's 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:17.200 developing that the administration is sending twenty five hundred additional 0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:19.680 marines to the region in light of what's been happening 0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:22.000 over the last couple of weeks, and that will kind 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:24.840 of add to the total fifty thousand American troops that 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:26.160 are in the region right now. 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.520 What does that portend to you? How do you read that? 0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:31.400 And then I'm curious as we listen to the President 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:33.560 not ruling out the prospects there being boots on the 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:37.840 ground unequivocally, does it concern you? Does it raise an 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:39.280 eyebrow that this could be where we're headed if we 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:40.800 have that many new troops headed to the region. 0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:43.920 Well, no, because in addition to being a state department, 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:46.480 a former state imparted person in a former life for 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:48.480 twenty six years, I was an army officer, and I 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:52.520 was actually a military planner and analyst at US Central Command, 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:56.280 the headquarters that is carrying out this campaign in lead 0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:59.600 for the United States, and so I was familiar back then, 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:02.800 in the old olden days with an earlier version of 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:06.119 this campaign plan and the idea of having a marine 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:09.800 expeditionary unit to do the kind of operations that you 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:13.800 would need to protect commercial vessels, commercial shipping going through 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:15.679 the Straight of Hormos, to be able to do operations 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.800 in the Persian Gulf literal, to protect shipping, to be 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:21.399 able to would give the President, would give the Sentcom 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:25.440 commander more options, and it actually signals, I think it's 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.960 a good signal to the Runian regime leaders in Tehran 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:32.480 that the President and Admiral Cooper are keeping that option open. 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:35.680 That's precisely the kind of very well trained marine force 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:37.359 that you would need in order to be able to 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:40.360 seize threatening vessels, in order to be able to disrupt 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.960 mind laying operations if the Iranian regime were to do that, 0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:47.280 or if they were want to try to seize some 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:51.000 sort of Iranian island, maybe carg Island or other facilities 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:55.119 like that. It's signaling that the US has that strategic option. 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.280 Colonel, Since, as you're saying, this plan did exist during 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:03.280 the first term, how closely is this administration's action following 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:05.520 that plan and what comes next? 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.120 Well, I don't have any inside information on that. Being retired, 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:11.240 I'm out of the loop, so I can. 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:13.359 You were in the loop the first time around. So 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:15.160 so far is it playing out according to a plan? 0:18:15.880 --> 0:18:19.720 Well, it's so much, so much more advanced. I mean 0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:23.800 as a as someone who was formerly familiar with an 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:28.000 earlier version of that plan. The military technology advances just 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.439 in the fifteen years or so since I was involved 0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:33.639 in that sort of thing are just astonishing. And the 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:37.080 military imbalance between the US and Israel on one side 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:39.840 and the Runnie regime on the other is far wider 0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:43.800 than Syncom would have enjoyed back then under General Abaza, 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:46.880 General Portrayus and so on. It's if you had told 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.720 me in two thousand and nine that two weeks into 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:53.560 this campaign plan, the running leadership would be decimated. Their 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:55.880 ballistic missiles would be down by over ninety percent, They're 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:57.920 drones down by over ninety percent. They would have no 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:01.160 operable air force, navy, missile defense, and air defense. I'd 0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:05.160 have told you you were smoking something. It's just astonishing 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:10.199 the military progress this being made. You know at that 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:14.200 at an operational level, you talk about the military progress made. 0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:16.280 The President sat down with Brian Kilmead on his radio 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:18.400 show a little earlier this week and talked about. 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:20.800 What an endgame might look like. Let's take a listen 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:22.160 to what he had to say to Brian. Kill meat 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:25.440 with the greatest economy and histrue, do we still do? 0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:25.840 Oh? 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.639 This will bounce right back when it's over, and I 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:30.720 don't think it's going to be long when it's over. 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:33.479 This is good. Abounce right back so fast. When are 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.800 you going to know when it's over? When I feel it? Okay, 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:38.720 fill it up my bones, colonel. 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:40.120 I want to get your reaction to that last line, 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:42.080 when he feels it in his bones. But you very 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:44.200 clearly laid out that list of all of the defensive 0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:45.720 targets that have been hit by by the US and 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.480 taken off line that Supreme Leader killed. As you mentioned, 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:51.240 your sense from your experience in the first term and 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:53.080 from what you've observed here over the last few weeks, 0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:55.119 of what the endgame is likely to be here and 0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:57.120 what the timeline this administration is working with. 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:00.960 Well, there's a military endgame, there's a military state that's 0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:04.480 very clear. There's a political in state that's that's something different. 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:08.040 On the military side. The objectives that they laid out 0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:11.639 the President's Secretary Rubio at the beginning of eliminating the 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:16.560 nuclear program, ballistic missile and drone program, the ability for 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:19.880 the running regime to use terrorist proxies outside their borders. 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:24.000 Those are all well on their way to being accomplished. 0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:28.080