WEBVTT - NFL Week 1 Game Lines Preview (Ep. 6) 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:10.119 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:13.400 the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by play MGM. 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:15.760 I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:18.760 Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We've talked about the sports 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:22.239 betting landscape. We've talked about wind totals and team futures 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:25.200 and player futures, and how sportsbooks reacted to the Andrew 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:28.080 Luck news and betting trends that we've noticed. But now 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:30.920 finally we get to move away from the longview and 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:33.720 focus on a weekly analysis. Starting now, we're going to 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:36.479 have two shows each week. The first one, which we'll 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:38.800 record Monday night, will take a look at the spreads 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:41.880 and over unders for every game that upcoming week. That's 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:43.960 just going to be our reaction to the lines and 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:46.440 where we think they might move by game time. The 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:49.040 second podcast, later in the week, we'll address some of 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:52.080 our best bets. This in case you hit your head 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:53.960 and blacked out for a bit and think it's Thursday 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:56.160 or something. Is the first one of the week, and 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:58.040 with me to break down all the lines for week 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:01.280 one is Sean Green. Usually I try to give like 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:03.480 a five word description of who our guest is, but 0:01:03.600 --> 0:01:06.319 I cannot possibly sum up Sean that quickly. He is 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.120 the co creator of the sports Gambling podcast. He is 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.600 the host of Sewan's Sports Show. He is the co 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:15.120 host of Untied on Mad Dog Sports Serious XM. He 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:17.640 is a comedian and a writer, and he invented that 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.759 valve do Hickey on the artificial Heart. Fine, I made 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:22.680 that last one up. That's actually just a line from 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:25.080 one of the most underrated movies of all time, My 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:27.800 Blue Heaven with Steve Martin Rick moranis but the rest 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:30.000 of that is all true. You can find him on 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:33.160 Twitter at Seawan T. Green Shawn. Thank you for coming 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:34.320 on the show. How is it going? 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:37.319 Awesome? Man, Thanks for having me on. Yeah. I probably 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:40.760 need that heart valve thing. Sweating out these week one 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:41.959 NFL games. 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:45.280 Oh man, I am so excited that it's finally time. 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:49.920 It's so ridiculous. And look, I mean, you know, I'm interested, 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:54.080 of course in sports gambling in every single sport. Frank, 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:56.720 I love the WNBA actually, and I've talked about that 0:01:56.760 --> 0:01:58.920 a couple of times. I think that sometime where you 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:01.840 can really if you're attention, you can really make some money. 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:05.160 But there is nothing like real football to get us going. 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.080 So for me, this is basically like the last It's 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:10.200 like leading up to Christmas morning, you know what I mean. 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:14.640 Oh, totally yeah, And through the summer, the long summer, 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:18.120 you're just counting down the days to finally bet on NFL. 0:02:18.160 --> 0:02:21.400 I did. I Actually I hit a couple of parlays 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:24.720 betting the NFL preseason, so I'm already ahead of the game, 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:28.000 which is pretty rare. Normally I don't do that much 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:30.720 NFL preseason, but I dabbed a little bit, hit a 0:02:30.720 --> 0:02:33.880 couple and yeah, I'm already I'm starting out ahead, which 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:35.040 is a nice place to start. 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.280 That's always great. You know, we were thinking about doing 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:40.239 a couple of preseason episodes to address, you know, betting 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:41.760 on some of the preseason games, so we just did 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:43.520 not have enough time. But that's good because now I 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:45.360 know I can book you for next season and you 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:48.160 can be the preseason betting experts since you're clearly one 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:49.760 of the top minds in the game when. 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:52.440 It comes to well, spoiler alert, just keep betting on 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:56.840 the Ravens. For some reason, they keep winning every Harboll's 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.600 won seventeen preseason games in a row or something. Insane. 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:02.239 So there you go. That's a little nugget for next season. 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:05.120 You can do absolutely nothing else on this podcast, and 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:07.480 you have already provided tons of value to the listeners. 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:10.200 So congratu. Like you're betting you're already off to a 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:12.799 great start. So all right, Look, it's opening week. Things 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.000 are a little different than usual here in that there 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.680 really isn't all that much recent news for sportsbooks to 0:03:18.680 --> 0:03:21.000 react to at this point. For example, on any given week, 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:23.240 there are going to be injuries or developments on that 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.320 previous Sunday. But here, other than things like whether Cam 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:29.040 Newton is gonna play and he probably will, or whether 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.520 Melvin Gordon is going to report and he probably won't, 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:33.960 there's not much that's going to make a difference. So 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:35.760 Shawn and I are going to quickly hit all the 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:37.920 lines here. But as I said earlier, we're not going 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.200 to be giving picks on this show. This is really 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.080 about going through the lines and giving you our reaction 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:45.960 to them. So Sewan, look, you host plenty of shows, 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:48.280 as I listed, but this is my show, and it 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:51.040 is a no nonsense show, and I make the rules, 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.160 so we are going to go through them in the 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:57.120 order of least interesting to most interesting based on my 0:03:57.320 --> 0:03:59.000 unofficial boring rankings. 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.560 Okay, i'd like, yeah, I like this. I want to, 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:04.240 I want to. I'm interested to see where you're gonna 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:07.240 start off as the Borinus game of the NFL Week one. 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:10.640 Well, I mean, look, there's like an eight way tie, 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:12.560 but I'm gonna I'm gonna just pick one of them 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:14.080 and go with it. Now, for the spreads and the 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:17.120 over unders, we're gonna be using the bettingpros dot Com 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:20.320 consensus numbers. That is an aggregation of the odds that 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:22.760 are available on the market. And you're gonna hear me 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:24.680 say this a lot over the course of these shows, 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:28.080 but there are occasionally pretty significant differences in the odds 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:30.440 that are available in the market. For example, with the 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:32.960 Cults and the Chargers, you'll see that you can get 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:35.960 a full point difference in the spread depending on where 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.679 you look. For the Bengals and the Seahawks, there's actually 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:41.880 a point and a half difference between two of the sportsbooks. 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:44.479 And again, we're gonna be using the bettingpros dot Com 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:48.159 consensus odds because that best represents what the market is showing. 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:50.640 But bettingpros dot Com will also let you see all 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:53.479 the odds that are available at various sportsbooks. So it 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:55.120 is a good thing to check out if you're looking 0:04:55.160 --> 0:04:58.120 to maximize your return on your investment. And as we'll 0:04:58.120 --> 0:04:59.840 talk about more next show, you can do a ton 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.040 more over at bettingpros dot com, like at consensus picks 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:06.080 from experts, and you can see accuracy rankings. But for now, 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:08.360 just know that when I list any given odds, they're 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:12.000 bettingpros dot Com consensus ods. So, Sean, let's start with 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:14.560 a game that few people outside of gamblers and fantasy 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:16.680 players are gonna watch, and that's gonna be the final 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:19.279 game of the week, The Broncos at the Raiders Super 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.160 late for me on the East Coast on Monday night, 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:23.600 just getting started for you on the West coast. The 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:26.320 Raiders here are laying half a point and the over 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:28.479 under is at forty three. Now, when the lines first 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:31.320 came out months ago, that's where the overunder was forty three. 0:05:31.360 --> 0:05:33.880 It has not moved, but the line actually opened at 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:36.039 the Raiders laying two and a half points, so it 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:39.280 has dropped two full points. What is your reaction to 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:40.000 this line, if. 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:44.200 Any Well, yeah, I mean, uh yeah, see that's right. 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:47.440 Yeah, uh whatever, Right, that's exactly right. It's just it's 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.560 the most boring. It's not the one on the list 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:50.760 of boring lines. 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:54.360 I think the it's interesting. I'm surprised it wouldn't be 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:57.640 a little higher for the Raiders. The public seems to 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:00.359 be somewhat high on the Raiders, and they usually the 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:03.240 hard knocks team will usually get a little bit of 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:05.920 a push. I think there's been a crazy trend of 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:09.760 the visiting team going six to zero or something like 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:14.120 that in this division matchup. But yeah, to me, the 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:18.920 matchup here is Vic Fangio versus John grud as far 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:21.599 as coaching, So that's what I'm really looking forward to. 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:24.320 Well, I mean, we're gonna be watching it because we're 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:26.800 gonna be watching every football game. But I mean, when 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:30.680 I see this line, it looks relatively where it needs 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:33.840 to be. There's nothing too exciting here. There's no real developments. 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:35.839 Antonio Brown is going to play, he was always going 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:38.280 to play. It's essentially a pickham game. Now it's a 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:40.800 low over under total and that makes sense to me. 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:44.040 But really, Raiders laying half a point relatively a pick them. 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:46.080 I think they'll hold that half a point, and I 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:47.479 think the over under is going to wind up at 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:50.200 forty three. So again, nothing really exciting here. It's not 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.120 a game that anybody except gamblers and fantasy players really 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:55.320 want to watch. So let's move on to number two 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:58.240 in the boring rankings, and that's the Falcons at the Vikings. 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:00.680 The Vikings here are laying three and a half points. 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.320 The over under is at forty seven. Now again, the 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:06.000 spread opened at the Vikings laying four and a half 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:08.000 and a forty seven and a half total, So the 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:10.680 spread has moved in favor of the Falcons just a 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:12.880 little bit since it first opened months ago. Do you 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:14.600 have any thoughts when looking at those numbers? 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:20.400 Yeah, I guess it's kind of where I expected. I 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:24.960 wouldn't be surprised if this number closes closer to three. 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:29.040 I think these teams are pretty evenly matched, both Dome teams. 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:34.000 It's interesting to me that they're you know, the betting 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.120 public has got it so that the Vikings are laying 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:40.520 that extra half point. You know, normally you're saying home 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:42.560 Field's worth three, they're giving them three and a half. 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:45.520 Maybe they're just factoring in. I know Minnesota has a 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.960 pretty good home field advantage usually that really helps their defense, 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.760 but again, the Falcons are a dome team, so I 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:53.600 don't know if the noise and that kind of stuff 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:56.120 affects them as much as your typical road team. 0:07:56.520 --> 0:07:58.880 That's right. The surprising thing to me was honestly that 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:00.840 it opened at four and a half, because to me, 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.280 this does feel everything about it kind of feels like 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.560 if they're on a neutral field, it's a pick them right, 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:07.880 which would make it essentially three. So at three and 0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:10.120 a half, I think it's fine. I could see it 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:12.600 moving to three, as you said, But in the end, 0:08:12.720 --> 0:08:14.520 my guess is this is not something where I think 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:17.160 better as sharps or the public are really going to 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:19.320 push one way or another. The over under at forty 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:21.360 seven is right around I think where it needs to be. 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:24.960 Both teams have relatively strong defenses. The Vikings certainly have 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:27.120 a strong one, so it's kind of high when you 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:29.320 think about it in that sense, but again, both teams 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.280 are basically capable of bearing it out at any given moment. 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:35.040 Yeah, oh sorry, I was just going to say the Vikings. 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:38.640 There's been a couple offensive coordinators teams that have kind 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:40.800 of signaled their intention as far as what they're going 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:43.520 to do on offense, and the Vikings have kind of 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:45.199 gone out of their way to say they're going to 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:47.880 pound the rock more and run the ball more. I mean, 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.160 they do have two really good receivers, but that's something 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:53.840 that I would keep an eye on because listen, if 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:56.040 you're running the ball more, it could have an impact 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:56.640 on the total. 0:08:56.800 --> 0:08:59.559 Yeah, for sure. In the end, my guess is Vikings 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:01.880 three and a half at most. You're gonna see Vikings 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:05.360 go to plus three minus three at this point, and 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:06.959 I'm pretty sure that the over ender is going to 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:08.840 stay right at about forty seven. If or no of 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:11.080 the reason. Then again, both teams have kind of telegraphed 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:13.640 what they do, especially the Vikings. Next on our list 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.199 is forty nine ers at Bucks. The Bucks are laying 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:19.000 one and the over under is at fifty. This opened 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:21.640 at the Bucks laying two and a forty nine total, 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:24.960 so it has moved slightly. Look, you must be super 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.040 excited about this line, right, This has just got strong 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:28.280 reaction written all over it. 0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:32.679 Oh. I mean not to tip my hand, but I've 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.559 been super high. If you listen to our division previews, 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.720 super high on the Tampa Bay Bucks and really down 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:41.360 on the forty nine ers. Jimmy Garoppolo has just not 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:44.280 looked great in preseason at all, in practice at all. 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:47.480 And it's one of those old betting trends of a 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:50.199 West Coast team go to an East Coast team or 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:53.720 you know, going to the East Coast. And another trend 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:57.839 worth looking at is these Florida teams at home in September. 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:00.520 If you saw last year, I think I think all 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:03.679 three Florida teams went three and zero to start off 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.640 the season. And with the way that they've kind of 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.800 adjusted in the collective bargaining that they can't practice these 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:15.160 guys as hard, humidity and heat early increases the home 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:18.080 field advantage. So that's definitely something I factor into my 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:23.240 handicapping is high elevation teams and Florida teams are where 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:25.640 it's going to be super hot or humid, especially early 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:26.240 in the season. 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:28.480 So out of curiosity, if you were going to predict 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:29.960 a line, if you didn't know what it was, would 0:10:29.960 --> 0:10:31.600 you have thought that the Bucks were then laying two 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:32.920 or three or something like that. 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:37.600 Well, I guess I think it should be Bucks, mindus three. However, 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:41.520 I know the forty nine ers the public is kind 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:44.400 of on them, so I'm not surprised that they've kind 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:46.480 of made it a pick because the forty nine Ers, 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:49.040 the consensus I think from the public is, oh, they 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:50.719 have a really good team, sh had hands, a really 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:53.000 good coach. All they got to Jimmy G was hurt 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:55.880 last year. That's why they were bad. Just swap him in. 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:58.360 Now that he's healthy, they'll be fine. One I don't 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:01.000 think Jimmy G is completely healthy or completely right. He 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:03.560 also struggled in those three games before he blew out 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:07.000 his ACL and Nick Mullins didn't do a horrible job 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:08.959 for that forty nine ers team. Like, there's a lot 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:12.320 more issues going on in San Francisco than just Jimmy 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:13.680 G not being there. 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:15.320 All right, So let me ask you this, then, what 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:18.079 about the total at fifty that's a fairly high total. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.880 It's not you know, I think it's probably fourth maybe 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:23.839 fifth highest for the week, but fifties a fairly high total. 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:27.040 I know the Bucks have what may be an explosive offense, 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.079 especially with Bruce arians running the ship, But do you feel, 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:32.000 you know, if the forty nine ers, you know, you 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:34.640 sound of course down on that offense? Did you expect 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:36.959 the total then to maybe be a little lower. Is 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:38.920 it more a question about the Bucks defense? 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.000 Yeah, I mean the Bucks could still have issues on defense. 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:47.959 You're right, fifty for an opening day is kind of high. 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:49.760 That's really what what came out to me. I mean, 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.000 I know it opened at forty nine. If anything, I 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.319 kind of expected it to go down to forty eight 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:56.520 and a half, especially, you know, given how hot it's 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.920 going to be, which you mentioned assuming because it's in Florida. 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:02.320 You know, I just feel like in the end, you know, 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:04.080 guys are going to be you know, they're not going 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:06.880 to be ready to go yet. You know, it's the 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.840 week one. I thought because of the question marks on 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:11.880 offense with the forty nine ers, which are right. Everything 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:14.439 you're saying about Garoppolo is right. And you know, the Bucks, 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:17.920 although they're pretty explosive, you know, the Winston was sacked 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.199 five times in that third preseason game. You know, the 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:22.280 running game can't do anything. I'm not sure they're going 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:23.640 to be able to score it well. So for me, 0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.280 the thing that stuck out to me was less about 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.360 the spread Bucks laying one. I'm fine, I could see 0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:30.680 it anywhere from the Bucks laying one two, as you said, 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:32.520 the Bucks laying three I think would be fine. But 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:35.240 the over under at fifty, I really felt like when 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:37.480 I was predicting it that that was sort of it 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:39.439 would have been about a point and a half lower 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:40.200 somewhere around there. 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:42.960 Yeah. I mean, you look at some of the the 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:47.880 other games Tampa Bay hosted in September last year, and 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:52.120 they did score in the high forties. Eagles they beat 0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:54.360 twenty seven to twenty one, so that's forty eight, and 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:59.120 Steelers they lost twenty seven to thirty. So I guess 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.640 that's kind of what they're that high total on. But 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:06.839 I'm worried about I'm worried about San Francisco's ability to 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:07.680 score on the road. 0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:09.920 Yeah, I mean, I guess you know, one thing to 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:13.000 take away from this is that the preseason probably doesn't 0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:15.280 move the needle very much from the opening lines, right, 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:16.920 because that you know that the forty nine ers, as 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.360 you said, look terrible. Garoppolo other than Week three where 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:23.319 he looked passable, you know, not great, but certainly did 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.800 not shine in the preseason, But the it didn't move 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:28.680 much that the line moved in favor of the forty 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.000 nine ers. Actually so yeah, yeah. 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.680 And I don't think you know, the betting public, I 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:37.240 think is since so few of starters are playing now, 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:41.079 I think it's impacting even less and less as far 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.840 as what they do to adjust the number based off 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:45.079 what happens in preseason. 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:47.240 Yep, I think that makes sense. All right, Let's move 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:49.600 to the Titans at the Browns. The Browns here are 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.160 laying five and a half points. The over under is 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:53.920 that forty five and a half, and this has really 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.360 barely moved since it opened. It opened at the Browns 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:58.600 laying five with a forty five point total, so a 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:01.560 half a point movement in both of those lines. Any 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:03.559 reaction to those numbers, Yeah, I. 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:07.080 Would say that that kind of makes sense. Again, you know, 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:09.120 when they're setting these lines, they're looking to get even 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.760 money on both sides. And I know the Browns are 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.400 just have been a huge public team. They just are 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:19.000 like they're the kind of the darling as far as 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:20.200 Super Bowl picks. 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:24.400 Or you know, and Mayfield is MVP. The public's all 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:24.920 over them. 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:28.520 The public's all over them. No one's hyping up Tennessee. 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:32.120 And so you know, there's probably a point point and 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:36.960 a half baked into that line. Listen, Tennessee, they were 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:39.200 what nine and seven last year? Brown seven, eight and one. 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:41.120 Brown's kind of had a thing last year where they 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.440 stuck up on people. Now they've they've cho you know, 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:47.600 they painted a giant target on their chest. And if 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.360 you're looking to find value long term and betting, fading 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:51.440 the public. 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:55.040 Is always the thing to do, correct always. 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.760 Yeah, one in doubt, just go against the betting public. 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:01.000 They didn't build these million dollars sports and casinos by 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:04.480 being on the wrong side historically. So if you see 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:07.240 a team that's getting a ton of early hype, the 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:11.680 public's clearly backing them, you know, be hesitant on taking them, 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:13.880 or just know that if you are going to take them, 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:17.360 you're probably you know, paying an extra point point and 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.600 a half premium to bet that team. So all that 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:22.400 stuff's kind of worth factoring in. 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:25.800 Yeah, I expected this spread is fine. You know, I 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:27.920 have no problem with five and a half. I would 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.320 have felt that it probably should have been in around 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:34.080 five where it opened. But the over under strikes me 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.240 as a little high. I mean, both these teams are 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:39.720 defensive teams. Again, it could just be sort of public perception. 0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:41.720 As you said, they're trying to get you know, basically 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.200 even money on both sides. So it could be really 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.200 the public perception, but it seems to me, given the 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:48.600 strength of the two defenses, that would be more like 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.280 a forty four and a half, you know, instead of 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:53.520 it moving up moving down. My guess is that that's 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:56.320 based much more on the money coming in rather than 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:57.080 what they expect. 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.880 Yeah. Yeah, And I'm looking over at betting pros right now. 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.640 They have the consensus numbers and just as I thought, 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:09.320 Cleveland getting sixty nine percent at minus five and a half. 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.920 So anytime you get like high sixties, seventies, I mean, 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:16.520 anything that's up around eighty, then you really gotta like 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:19.040 just factor that into decide you're on. 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:22.560 Absolutely. Let's move on now to the Redskins at the Eagles. 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:25.160 We've got the Eagles laying nine and a half and 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.400 the over under at forty five and a half. Now, 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.000 this is actually one of the more significant movers since 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:32.880 the totals first opened. The Eagles were originally laying eight 0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.720 in most places, and the total was at forty six 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:37.840 and a half. Basically, it looks like there's just doubt 0:16:37.920 --> 0:16:40.560 as to whether the Redskins can actually score any points, 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.119 and I don't necessarily think that that doubt is unfounded. 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:46.080 What are your thoughts there on the nine and a 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:48.240 half and the over under at forty five and a half. 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:50.920 Yeah, I mean I'm a Dahard Eagles fan. 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:53.000 So can you be objective? 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:53.320 Yeah? 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:55.880 Can you be objective? I'm a Jets fan, man, So 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:57.640 I can still do this. I can still get up 0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.360 in the morning. You just got to power through. 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:03.480 Any The NFCA is historically has been a super competitive 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:07.879 division and anytime a divisional game you're getting close to 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:11.920 double digits, I mean you gotta look to the dog. 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.399 The issue here is Washington's left tackle, one of the 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:19.920 strengths of their team, is just refusing to play because 0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:23.520 of his issues with the medical staff. They're starting Eric Flowers, 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.760 a right guard who is a horrible offensive lineman, and 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:29.159 they're bringing in Case Keenum, who the last time in 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:32.800 Case Keenum was a quarterback for the Redskins. He got 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:35.320 destroyed in the NFC Championship game with a much more 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:39.359 talented Vikings team. So I think Washington is going to 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:42.280 have trouble moving the ball and scoring. 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:47.080 Wait, look, hold on, everything you were saying is dead on. 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:50.040 And because of that, How is it possible that this 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:53.240 isn't actually double digits. That's really what I'm surprised that. 0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:58.280 I mean, legitimately, everything you're saying is absolutely correct. I mean, look, 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.040 maybe not. I'm going to be so prize that if 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:03.240 this does not get to ten by the time game 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:05.320 time rolls around, because there's got to be money coming in. 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:08.680 This seems to me. I was shocked, honestly when I 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:10.240 sort of closed my eyes and said, okay, let me 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.159 think before I started even looking at any of this, 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:16.239 what this would be at this point, given everything that 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.639 you just correctly brought out, I would think that it's 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:21.520 honestly got to move a little to I'm fine with 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:23.440 the over under. I'm fine with that, but I would 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:25.440 think would go over. But it's worth noting I mentioned 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.320 that you can sometimes get different odds at different sports books. 0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:30.320 This is at nine and a half across the board. 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.880 Everybody is in unison, so I must be missing something here. 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:37.040 But to me, I honestly think that this should be 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:39.600 at ten, maybe even ten and a half, probably ten, 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:41.440 and that I think it might end up there when 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:42.440 all of a sudden done. 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:45.159 Well, you know, I don't know if you on the 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:48.320 podcast if you discuss key numbers a lot, but for 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:51.280 you know, in the NFL, key number three, four, seven, 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.840 in a weird way, nine is oftentimes a key number 0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:58.439 for the sportsbook. So if the spreads at seven and 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:00.639 a half a lot of times and gonna move it 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:02.520 up a lot of times, they'll jump it up to 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:06.200 nine to kind of they call it teaser protection, right, 0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:09.560 So if you're doing a six point teaser, they don't 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:11.879 want you to be able to get the game down 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:15.359 to three or you know, under three, and you're getting 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:18.800 under that key number of three. So that's why, you know, 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:20.919 once it was at seven and a half eight, and 0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:22.560 then they saw it was gonna go up, they jumped 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:24.080 it up to like nine and a half. So if 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:26.720 you tease it down, it only goes down to three 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:27.200 and a half. 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.520 Yeah, no, I do get that. I completely get that. Still, 0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:32.760 this line needs to move to ten. And I'm going, 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.760 all right, let's go to the only line in any 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:39.000 normal regular sports fan should ever care about the only 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:41.679 game bills of Jets. Of course, the Jets here are 0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:44.960 laying three. The over under is set at forty. Now 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:46.800 this open up. The Jets lank three and a half 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.959 with a minuscool thirty eight and a half point total, 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:52.400 but it has moved just a little bit up. Any 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.160 thoughts on those lines, No. 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:57.200 I mean, if you give me a blindfold and told 0:19:57.200 --> 0:19:59.359 me to pick the spread, I would definitely would have 0:19:59.400 --> 0:20:07.520 guessed three. Yep, very very similar, similar teams, similar states 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:11.880 of where they're at. The Bills defensive minded team, Sean 0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:15.840 McDermott really coached up the defense well, and then you 0:20:15.920 --> 0:20:18.919 got just a real wild card of quarterback Josh Allen, 0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:22.480 who's made some plays, have made some crazy turnovers. And 0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:24.679 then you got the Jets, who they got some weapons 0:20:24.720 --> 0:20:27.720 for Sam Darnold. I do think Donald will have a 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:31.320 much better second year under Adam Gase and just helping 0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:35.920 him out with Le'Veon Bell. There's certainly some questions Jets defense. 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:41.240 So yeah, I three totally makes sense, and I think 0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:44.200 this is a good a good barometer game for both 0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:46.719 these teams. I think you'll get a kind of idea 0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:49.679 of where these teams are at. As far as who's 0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:52.760 gonna be runner up to the Patriots, No offense. 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:55.280 I'm none taken. I mean to even be in the 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:57.720 conversation of being a quote unquote runner up I will 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:01.200 take any day of the week. Two questions. Robbie Anderson 0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:04.000 is likely to play in this game if he misses 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:05.679 the game. I mean that's the last I heard. He 0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:08.200 was questionable for the week. If Anderson missed the game, 0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:11.000 do you think that moves the spread at all? 0:21:11.640 --> 0:21:15.800 No? No, I mean I would be pretty surprised if 0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:18.040 you're if you're a non quarterback, you have to be 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:22.280 really like top tier to have an impact on the 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.760 on the spread. Usually it could be maybe Robbie Anderson 0:21:26.800 --> 0:21:28.720 goes out and a lot of people at him on 0:21:28.720 --> 0:21:30.720 their fantasy team and all of a sudden they're they're 0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:36.120 pounding the bills. But generally the linemakers won't really adjust 0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:39.359 their number off a guy. It has to be a 0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:43.160 pretty big name running back or receiver for to really 0:21:43.160 --> 0:21:45.760 make an impact to me when I'm when I'm looking 0:21:45.800 --> 0:21:49.920 at games, left tackle is a huge one, and offensive 0:21:49.960 --> 0:21:53.120 line in general, and this is again a nice way 0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:55.719 to find values. A lot of times, you know, jo 0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:58.800 Q Public when on offensive lineman like Trent Williams for 0:21:58.840 --> 0:22:01.919 the Redskins, or or Laramie Tunsell, who the Dolphins just 0:22:01.920 --> 0:22:05.040 traded away. A lot of times when stuff like that happens. 0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:08.520 The public, in their mind, doesn't compensate enough for that, 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:12.080 and they'll compensate more for a guy like Robbie Anderson, 0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:15.560 who they'll probably be able to still have some offensive 0:22:15.560 --> 0:22:18.439 production without, but not having a left tackle, especially with 0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:20.800 a guy like Sam Dartled. If the left tackle was 0:22:20.840 --> 0:22:23.480 supposed to go out, that would definitely adjust my number, 0:22:23.600 --> 0:22:24.840 and maybe not for the public. 0:22:25.160 --> 0:22:27.440 Yeah, we're gonna talk about the left tackles, actually, because 0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:29.199 when we get to the Texans, we'll talk about the 0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.000 fact that hasn't really moved very much, and I thought 0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:34.520 that the addition of Tunsel actually might move that line 0:22:34.520 --> 0:22:36.600 a little more. I said two questions, but I'm going 0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:38.440 to skip the second one because frankly, we just can't 0:22:38.480 --> 0:22:40.480 spend too much time on the pills and the Jets. 0:22:40.520 --> 0:22:43.160 Let's be honest. Let's move on to another not all 0:22:43.240 --> 0:22:46.119 that exciting game, the Lions at the Cardinals. The Lions 0:22:46.119 --> 0:22:48.320 are laying two and a half here. The over under 0:22:48.400 --> 0:22:50.560 is at forty seven and a half. This originally opened 0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:52.520 as a pickum game and the over under was at 0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:55.000 forty nine, so the over under has been steadily dropping. 0:22:55.359 --> 0:22:57.240 It was forty eight just a day or two ago. 0:22:57.280 --> 0:22:58.840 Now it's at forty seven and a half. How do 0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:00.000 you feel about both those lines? 0:23:00.400 --> 0:23:03.920 Yeah, I mean Detroit as a road favorite is historically 0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:06.960 kind of scary. Yeah, but again, that's what Matt Stafford does. 0:23:07.080 --> 0:23:10.800 Matt Stafford beats bad teams. And I think the line 0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:15.960 movement came courtesy of watching Kyler Murray play in the preseason. 0:23:16.160 --> 0:23:19.120 So this is a game where I do think watching 0:23:19.280 --> 0:23:22.679 the players in preseason did rightly adjust the line movement. 0:23:23.160 --> 0:23:25.960 Huge questions on the Cardinals on the defensive side of 0:23:26.000 --> 0:23:30.480 the ball, and just Kyler Murray in general, rookie quarterback 0:23:30.520 --> 0:23:34.119 making his first home start. I guess it kind of 0:23:34.160 --> 0:23:37.880 makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised if this gets above 0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:41.520 three at kickoff. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cardinals 0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:45.720 plus three and a half because they're just Yeah, it's 0:23:45.880 --> 0:23:48.600 Cliff Kingsbury's first start in the NFL, A guy who 0:23:49.160 --> 0:23:53.440 wasn't competent enough to coach coach college football and then 0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:58.639 somehow got a promotion into the National Football League. A 0:23:58.640 --> 0:24:01.280 lot of questions and I'm not even them, not even 0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:05.119 a huge Lions backers. There certainly questions about Matt Patrician 0:24:05.240 --> 0:24:06.440 and the stuff they're doing. 0:24:06.800 --> 0:24:09.199 I think for me, the bigger number here was the 0:24:09.280 --> 0:24:11.639 over under. Yeah, forty seven and a half. I you know, 0:24:11.680 --> 0:24:15.840 I understand the questions on defense, especially for the Cardinals, 0:24:15.840 --> 0:24:18.119 but you know, it struck me as too high, and 0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:21.359 I'm not surprised that it moved and that it was, 0:24:21.440 --> 0:24:24.359 you know, originally forty nine, recently forty eight. Now at 0:24:24.359 --> 0:24:26.120 forty seven and a half. I could see it even 0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:30.040 going to forty seven. I think that, you know, it 0:24:30.160 --> 0:24:33.159 just it seems given what we saw for exactly what 0:24:33.200 --> 0:24:36.280 you said, given what we saw from the Cardinals offense 0:24:36.640 --> 0:24:38.440 in the preseason, and it might be different. I mean, 0:24:38.480 --> 0:24:40.600 you know, Kingsbury said that he was keeping at vanilla, 0:24:40.760 --> 0:24:42.399 so you never really know how it's going to go. 0:24:42.800 --> 0:24:45.840 But to me, the total seemed to be a little high. Again, 0:24:45.880 --> 0:24:49.280 that's right about you know where you know, not not crazy, 0:24:49.359 --> 0:24:51.840 but I would have thought it more like forty seven, 0:24:51.960 --> 0:24:53.040 maybe forty six and a half. 0:24:53.119 --> 0:24:56.560 Yeah, And I do think that's reaction to seeing the 0:24:56.600 --> 0:25:00.800 Arizona Cardinals offense in preseason. Yeah, even if they're doing 0:25:00.840 --> 0:25:04.159 a vanilla scheme, there's still some basic execution stuff that 0:25:04.240 --> 0:25:06.919 he was clearly struggling with. So I think originally when 0:25:06.960 --> 0:25:09.920 they hung a forty nine, their thought was, Wow, they're 0:25:09.920 --> 0:25:12.680 gonna move the ball on offense with struggle and defense, 0:25:13.000 --> 0:25:16.040 and now they become less certain about them moving the ball. 0:25:16.240 --> 0:25:18.960 No, absolutely, And again I check the lines every day 0:25:19.200 --> 0:25:21.480 just to see where it was, and again it was 0:25:21.520 --> 0:25:24.679 forty eight either yesterday or maybe two days ago, and 0:25:24.960 --> 0:25:26.359 it's down to forty seven and a half. So I 0:25:26.359 --> 0:25:29.359 wouldn't be completely surprised to see if drop half a 0:25:29.359 --> 0:25:32.120 point further, as probably more money comes in, We're gonna 0:25:32.160 --> 0:25:34.440 get into some of the more interesting lines here in 0:25:34.480 --> 0:25:36.800 a second, including the Chiefs that the Jaguars and the 0:25:36.840 --> 0:25:38.920 Patriots and the Steelers. 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And although you can sign up 0:26:37.160 --> 0:26:39.720 an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the 0:26:39.720 --> 0:26:41.960 state of New Jersey to place a sports bet. Visit 0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:44.880 playmgm dot com for the full list of terms and conditions. 0:26:44.880 --> 0:26:47.159 And if you've got a gambling problem, call one eight 0:26:47.280 --> 0:26:49.639 hundred gambler. All right, let's move to the Chiefs and 0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:51.879 the Jaguars. Here the Chiefs are laying three and a 0:26:51.920 --> 0:26:53.960 half and the over under is at fifty two. Then 0:26:54.000 --> 0:26:56.919 the Chiefs actually opened at minus five with a fifty 0:26:56.960 --> 0:26:58.959 two and a half over under. So what are your 0:26:58.960 --> 0:26:59.720 thoughts there on those? 0:27:00.760 --> 0:27:04.320 Yeah, I mean lots of unpack here because you got 0:27:04.400 --> 0:27:10.160 Andy Reid, who historically has done pretty well on opening day, 0:27:10.400 --> 0:27:12.919 and he's going up against a quarterback that he knows 0:27:13.520 --> 0:27:17.760 with Nick Foles. They just saidden Mishawe McCoy. It's interesting. 0:27:17.960 --> 0:27:19.480 So you said it open at five and now it's 0:27:19.480 --> 0:27:20.160 three and a half. 0:27:20.600 --> 0:27:23.480 Yeah, I mean, and again these are months ago when 0:27:23.520 --> 0:27:25.120 it first up, but when it first came out. Yeah, 0:27:25.160 --> 0:27:26.840 was that minus five when it first came on the board. 0:27:27.080 --> 0:27:30.240 Yeah, that's it. I mean that's interesting too, because yeah, 0:27:30.359 --> 0:27:33.199 I would think it could even be you could probably 0:27:33.240 --> 0:27:36.560 get away making it a little higher. So the fact 0:27:36.600 --> 0:27:39.119 that it's three and a half, even though you're talking 0:27:39.200 --> 0:27:42.280 road favorite, you know, it's the travel isn't as bad 0:27:42.280 --> 0:27:44.480 Week one because they're not coming off another game. 0:27:45.000 --> 0:27:46.640 I mean, it might be some of it. Of course, 0:27:46.680 --> 0:27:49.120 they struggled a little bit against the Jaguars last year. 0:27:49.119 --> 0:27:52.160 You know that was Mahomes's worst game as a pro. 0:27:52.200 --> 0:27:54.439 I mean part of it could be that. For me, 0:27:54.520 --> 0:27:56.639 it's the total be over under at fifty two. I 0:27:56.680 --> 0:27:57.320 mean I get it. 0:27:57.359 --> 0:27:58.240 The Chiefs, you. 0:27:58.200 --> 0:28:00.000 Never know they can, you know, put up a four 0:28:00.240 --> 0:28:02.680 spot with ease, but it's the second highest total of 0:28:02.760 --> 0:28:04.600 the week. It felt me more like a like a 0:28:04.640 --> 0:28:07.119 fifty one or fifty one and a half, just because 0:28:07.160 --> 0:28:09.560 you know, the Jaguars have a strong defense. The Chiefs 0:28:09.560 --> 0:28:12.640 have improved someone on defense. You know, the Jaguars are home, 0:28:12.920 --> 0:28:14.919 it's gonna it strikes me as a close game. I 0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:17.360 just you know, I thought that the over under struck 0:28:17.400 --> 0:28:18.160 me as a little high. 0:28:18.200 --> 0:28:20.640 Yeah, the Chiefs have brought in new guys on defense. 0:28:20.720 --> 0:28:22.720 You know, you got Tyron Matthew, the Honey Badger, you 0:28:22.800 --> 0:28:25.119 got Frank Clark helping out with the pass rush. And 0:28:25.200 --> 0:28:29.639 the Jaguars have seemingly again they're they're making it clear 0:28:29.640 --> 0:28:31.520 that they're going to try and get Fournette back to 0:28:31.960 --> 0:28:33.960 back to form, and I think they'll be running the 0:28:33.960 --> 0:28:37.680 ball more, doing some rpo stuff, which is I think 0:28:37.680 --> 0:28:41.240 the Jaguars formula for victory in this game and in 0:28:41.280 --> 0:28:45.240 general is ball control and good defense. And that's usually 0:28:46.080 --> 0:28:48.200 something that would shade the under rather than the over. 0:28:48.560 --> 0:28:51.080 Right. That that's really what struck out to me. I mean, again, 0:28:51.200 --> 0:28:53.640 not not crazy, but it struck me as fifty two 0:28:53.680 --> 0:28:55.920 seems a little high given what I think the game 0:28:56.000 --> 0:28:58.240 is likely to unfold as All right, let's move to 0:28:58.280 --> 0:29:00.720 the Packers at the Bears. The Bears here are laying 0:29:00.760 --> 0:29:03.080 three points. The over under is at forty six and 0:29:03.120 --> 0:29:05.120 a half. Now, this has not moved from when this 0:29:05.160 --> 0:29:06.920 first came out months ago. It opened up with the 0:29:06.920 --> 0:29:09.360 Bears laying three and a half and the over under 0:29:09.400 --> 0:29:12.560 at forty six, So very very minimal movement here. What 0:29:12.600 --> 0:29:13.200 are your thoughts? 0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:19.680 Yeah, I mean this again probably makes sense as far 0:29:19.720 --> 0:29:23.760 as the spread. You know Division games early on, it 0:29:23.800 --> 0:29:27.200 makes sense to be three and a half the total. 0:29:27.920 --> 0:29:31.360 The total again, yeah, forty six and a half. You're 0:29:31.360 --> 0:29:36.080 dealing with a couple new variables with this Packers offense. Again, 0:29:36.480 --> 0:29:40.560 they they seemingly haven't shown much with the floor. The 0:29:40.640 --> 0:29:46.680 dynamic between Rogers and Lafleur is interesting, and the Bears 0:29:46.680 --> 0:29:49.600 don't have vic fans here anymore. So I think I 0:29:49.600 --> 0:29:53.239 think there's a chance, especially Packers first half. I think 0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:54.760 the Packers are really going to have a chance to 0:29:54.760 --> 0:29:58.760 put up some points just because you know they're gonna 0:29:58.760 --> 0:30:01.160 come in with that Lafleur offense. That there's no tape on, 0:30:01.720 --> 0:30:04.560 and instead of going up against Vic Fangio, they're going 0:30:04.640 --> 0:30:09.360 up against Chuck Pagano, which is definitely a step down 0:30:09.360 --> 0:30:11.000 in my mind as far as the coordinator. 0:30:11.240 --> 0:30:13.360 Yeah, without question. But you know, the other on the 0:30:13.400 --> 0:30:15.640 other side of the coin, the Packers defense is greatly 0:30:15.640 --> 0:30:17.840 improved too, right. I mean they added a lot of 0:30:17.880 --> 0:30:20.280 pieces there last year when they played twice when the 0:30:20.320 --> 0:30:23.040 Bears were at home, the Bears won twenty four to seventeen. 0:30:23.480 --> 0:30:25.960 So you know, for me again, you know, I feel 0:30:25.960 --> 0:30:27.960 like I've been talking much more about the over unders 0:30:28.000 --> 0:30:30.840 generally with these things. But again, I kind of expected 0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:32.840 the over under to be more like forty five and 0:30:32.840 --> 0:30:34.840 a half or somewhere like that because but you raise 0:30:34.880 --> 0:30:37.840 a good point with Fangio. So it's possible the Bears 0:30:37.840 --> 0:30:39.600 defense takes a little step back here and we don't 0:30:39.600 --> 0:30:42.680 know exactly what the Packers' offense is going to look for. Yeah, 0:30:42.840 --> 0:30:45.080 so I think it's fair to me, you know, when 0:30:45.080 --> 0:30:47.000 it stuck out, this is where it's going to end up. 0:30:47.000 --> 0:30:48.560 By the way, I mean, the Bears are going to 0:30:48.600 --> 0:30:50.080 be laying at game time. The Bears are going to 0:30:50.080 --> 0:30:51.400 be laying three, and the over under is going to 0:30:51.440 --> 0:30:52.760 be at forty six and a half. I can almost 0:30:52.800 --> 0:30:55.160 guarantee you which is fine, and it's around there, but 0:30:55.320 --> 0:30:57.240 I kind of thought it might be more at forty 0:30:57.280 --> 0:30:58.320 five and a half forty. 0:30:58.080 --> 0:30:59.960 Six I could. I see where you're come up with that. 0:31:00.240 --> 0:31:02.280 Yeah, all right, let's move on to the Ravens at 0:31:02.280 --> 0:31:04.920 the Dolphins. Now the Ravens are laying seven and the 0:31:05.000 --> 0:31:08.120 over under is at a ridiculously low thirty seven and 0:31:08.120 --> 0:31:10.480 a half. Now, this opened up with a thirty seven 0:31:10.720 --> 0:31:13.440 over under, but the Ravens were actually laying three and 0:31:13.480 --> 0:31:16.280 a half when this first opened up. And I look 0:31:16.320 --> 0:31:18.240 the other day and the Ravens were laying six and 0:31:18.240 --> 0:31:20.640 a half. It has now moved to seven. There are 0:31:20.640 --> 0:31:22.880 a ton of changes recently for the Dolphins. So what 0:31:22.920 --> 0:31:24.920 are your thoughts? Do you think that this is a 0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:27.880 where the lines are going to end up at seven 0:31:28.120 --> 0:31:29.440 and thirty seven and a half or what? 0:31:29.880 --> 0:31:32.800 Yeah, I mean, I think what will happen is it'll 0:31:32.920 --> 0:31:36.600 it'll stay at seven just because the anti dolphin sentiment 0:31:36.640 --> 0:31:39.080 from the betting public is so strong. I think it 0:31:39.080 --> 0:31:41.360 could even go up to if it goes anywhere, I 0:31:41.360 --> 0:31:42.880 think it could go to seven and a half. 0:31:43.120 --> 0:31:45.360 One hundred. That's where I think it ends up. Seven 0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:45.680 and a half. 0:31:45.760 --> 0:31:48.480 Yeah, that's where I see it closing. Ass I'd really 0:31:48.560 --> 0:31:52.400 be shocked if the underclose, if the total closes this low. 0:31:52.680 --> 0:31:55.320 But again that's just based on the anti Dolphin sentiment. 0:31:55.760 --> 0:31:59.080 And yeah, so the trends or stuff I'm looking at 0:31:59.080 --> 0:32:02.160 when I'm handicapping this game home Dogs, historically, there's a 0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:04.480 bunch of value there. Again, the Dolphins were one of 0:32:04.480 --> 0:32:08.680 those Florida home teams, so that's something I'm factoring in 0:32:09.000 --> 0:32:12.520 Lamar Jackson on the road. But the Dolphins they just 0:32:12.600 --> 0:32:15.240 got rid of their left tackle, So that's that's the 0:32:15.280 --> 0:32:18.880 other side. That's the other side of the handicap. And 0:32:19.640 --> 0:32:23.320 you know, Fitsmagic, who from what I've read, is going 0:32:23.360 --> 0:32:26.200 to be starting. He's he's a guy, he's a guy 0:32:26.240 --> 0:32:29.160 that you can tell him you're taking. But this guy, 0:32:30.320 --> 0:32:33.160 especially early on or a couple of games, he's going 0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:36.360 to be scrappy. The problem is this, This Ravens defense 0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:40.600 is really strong. Earl Thomas seems to be kind of 0:32:40.600 --> 0:32:44.600 in fu mode. I mean literally, the last time he 0:32:44.680 --> 0:32:46.920 was on the field, he's being carted off, giving Pete 0:32:46.960 --> 0:32:50.560 Carroll the finger. So he seems highly motivated. Those are 0:32:50.640 --> 0:32:53.000 kind of the things I'm looking to handicap. But as 0:32:53.040 --> 0:32:55.400 far as where I think it'll close, I didn't think 0:32:55.440 --> 0:32:58.520 the under or sorry the total, the line will close 0:32:58.560 --> 0:33:01.000 higher to seven and a half. And I think if 0:33:01.000 --> 0:33:03.200 you're gonna bet the over, bet it now, because I 0:33:03.200 --> 0:33:05.600 do think it'll go up a couple points. 0:33:05.920 --> 0:33:08.080 Yeah, I think that's fine. I think the over under, 0:33:08.440 --> 0:33:11.120 I think it'll say roughly around where it is. I 0:33:11.200 --> 0:33:13.160 mean again, if it goes anywhere, maybe have a point. 0:33:13.200 --> 0:33:15.440 But I agree I will be shocked if this ends 0:33:15.760 --> 0:33:18.320 at the Ravens laying seven. At this point, I mean, 0:33:18.360 --> 0:33:20.360 I think it's got to go up. For all the 0:33:20.400 --> 0:33:23.040 reasons you talked about. It's just really difficult to see 0:33:23.040 --> 0:33:24.520 how the Dolphins are going to be able to put 0:33:24.600 --> 0:33:29.400 up any points whatsoever in this game. Steelers at the Patriots. 0:33:29.440 --> 0:33:31.480 Pats are laying five and a half. The over under 0:33:31.600 --> 0:33:33.520 is at fifty and a half. This opened at the 0:33:33.560 --> 0:33:35.800 Pats laying six and the over under at fifty one 0:33:35.840 --> 0:33:38.800 and a half, so they're not too much movement here. 0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:40.040 What are your thoughts on this one? 0:33:40.480 --> 0:33:45.560 Let's see. Yeah, it's interesting the Patriots are they're one 0:33:45.560 --> 0:33:49.520 of the teams. You said the Pats, right, Yes, the Pats. Yes, Okay, yeah, 0:33:49.600 --> 0:33:52.240 they're one of these teams that I mean, hey, they're 0:33:52.280 --> 0:33:56.080 the Patriots. They're amazing. But when they have struggled, it 0:33:56.160 --> 0:34:00.120 has been early on, right, you know, September is in 0:34:00.160 --> 0:34:03.400 the rough Mont, the Steelers playing against the Patriots. That's 0:34:03.440 --> 0:34:05.680 always their super Bowl. That's the game they get up for. 0:34:06.080 --> 0:34:09.160 When I'm betting, I usually look at what will happen 0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:12.279 the Steelers a lot of time the game before they 0:34:12.360 --> 0:34:15.640 play the Patriots. They often overlook that game because they're 0:34:15.640 --> 0:34:18.200 so jacked up for the Patriots. The fact that they're 0:34:18.239 --> 0:34:23.279 playing the Patriots the first game that I think actually. 0:34:23.080 --> 0:34:25.480 Is a huge benefit for the Patriots or sorry for 0:34:25.520 --> 0:34:27.919 the Steelers, because they get so jacked up to play 0:34:27.960 --> 0:34:31.040 the Patriots they can't overlook another team and they've you know, 0:34:31.120 --> 0:34:33.799 just basically spent the whole offseason with the Patriots on 0:34:33.840 --> 0:34:34.640 their calendar. 0:34:34.680 --> 0:34:38.200 There. Yeah. Other than that, I guess the number seems 0:34:38.200 --> 0:34:41.440 about rights. I don't know. It'll be interesting to see 0:34:41.960 --> 0:34:44.400 if there's any kind of crazy action one way or 0:34:44.400 --> 0:34:46.879 the other, because it is Sunday night, so there could 0:34:46.880 --> 0:34:49.120 be some line movement as far as people looking to 0:34:49.280 --> 0:34:52.520 catch up from what happened during the day. But and 0:34:52.760 --> 0:34:57.680 let's see the total. Yeah again probably well, no, fifteen 0:34:57.680 --> 0:35:01.920 and a half seems in the ballpark, Steelers have been 0:35:01.960 --> 0:35:03.760 able to show that they can just put up points. 0:35:04.440 --> 0:35:07.200 The real thing that's interesting is Ben Roethlisberger on the road. 0:35:07.280 --> 0:35:11.640 He's had some Sure, he's had some wildly poor performances, 0:35:11.800 --> 0:35:13.920 but then also he's thrown for five thousand yards, so 0:35:14.400 --> 0:35:16.680 he's kind of been a wild card on the road. 0:35:17.360 --> 0:35:21.640 Patriots at home and in Foxborough are just, you know, 0:35:21.800 --> 0:35:24.440 machines when it comes to winning games and covering spreads. 0:35:24.800 --> 0:35:27.440 So I wouldn't be surprised it's five and a half, 0:35:27.480 --> 0:35:31.120 maybe it gets up to six. Stuff usually doesn't close 0:35:31.120 --> 0:35:33.280 a five and a half, so I wouldn't be surprised 0:35:33.280 --> 0:35:35.680 if he gets the six. It's definitely not going to 0:35:35.719 --> 0:35:38.520 get up to a full touchdown, and I don't see 0:35:38.560 --> 0:35:39.520 it getting down to four. 0:35:40.160 --> 0:35:44.640 Yeah. My reaction essentially is a giant shrug emoji. I honestly, 0:35:44.760 --> 0:35:47.120 you know, these teams, they play each other hard. It's 0:35:47.160 --> 0:35:48.960 weird because it's the first game of the season. As 0:35:49.000 --> 0:35:51.560 you said, there's always build up to it. It did 0:35:51.560 --> 0:35:54.600 strike me as roughly fifty, roughly five and a half, 0:35:54.680 --> 0:35:57.480 roughly six. I bet you that's probably where it stays. 0:35:57.520 --> 0:35:59.799 And I feel like, you know, we don't really know 0:36:00.320 --> 0:36:02.200 what these teams are going to look like. I do think, 0:36:02.239 --> 0:36:04.920 you know, the Patriots have a better defense, I think, 0:36:04.960 --> 0:36:07.160 than they've had in a couple of seasons. So I'm 0:36:07.160 --> 0:36:10.200 interested to see, you know, whether that total, if anything, 0:36:10.200 --> 0:36:13.320 maybe drops half a point. But in the end, I 0:36:13.400 --> 0:36:17.440 think it's really tough to gauge. 0:36:15.800 --> 0:36:19.879 And primetime games where there's gonna be more public action, 0:36:20.040 --> 0:36:24.919 especially teams like the Patriots and the Steelers too. I mean, listen, 0:36:24.960 --> 0:36:28.160 there's a reason it's on Sunday night NBC is two 0:36:28.440 --> 0:36:31.360 huge fan bases that will really helped the ratings and 0:36:31.760 --> 0:36:34.120 drive a lot of action. And you know, when the 0:36:34.120 --> 0:36:37.240 public gets involved, they're gonna want to take the over Simply, 0:36:37.480 --> 0:36:40.879 it's simple, simple brain mechanics. It's not fun to root 0:36:40.920 --> 0:36:43.959 for the under. You know, everyone's probably got a bunch 0:36:44.000 --> 0:36:46.840 of their fantasy players, so they're rooting for scoring in action, 0:36:47.560 --> 0:36:51.239 so you know, they're probably gonna be people hitting the 0:36:51.280 --> 0:36:51.880 over all. 0:36:51.960 --> 0:36:53.560 Right, let's move here to what I will call the 0:36:53.680 --> 0:36:56.440 uncertainty zone. Okay, there's a lot of moving parts that 0:36:56.520 --> 0:36:58.520 could have affected the lines, and I want to explore 0:36:58.560 --> 0:37:00.359 that a bit. And let's start with the Bengal at 0:37:00.360 --> 0:37:03.400 the Seahawks. The Seahawks here are laying nine points. The 0:37:03.480 --> 0:37:06.000 over under is set at forty four, and this originally 0:37:06.080 --> 0:37:08.520 opened at the Seahawks lank seven and a half points 0:37:08.560 --> 0:37:10.960 with a forty three and a half over under. So 0:37:11.040 --> 0:37:12.680 what are your thoughts on this game? 0:37:13.000 --> 0:37:17.480 Yeah, I think that open at seven and a half 0:37:17.600 --> 0:37:21.600 was probably pre aj Green injury. But I do think 0:37:21.680 --> 0:37:24.040 a lot of this is, you know, the Clowny news, 0:37:24.280 --> 0:37:27.520 so possibly it's a it could be a little bit 0:37:27.560 --> 0:37:29.719 of an overreaction, but again, going from seven and a 0:37:29.760 --> 0:37:33.080 half to nine is usually just them kind of protecting 0:37:33.120 --> 0:37:37.200 themselves for teasers. And you got this Bengals team. It's 0:37:37.239 --> 0:37:41.320 a non conference road game in Seattle. Seattle again, super 0:37:41.320 --> 0:37:44.920 tough place to play, pretty solid home field, I mean 0:37:44.960 --> 0:37:47.680 it used to be amazing. It's cooled off as of late, 0:37:48.400 --> 0:37:50.960 so I wouldn't be surprised if this gets a little higher. 0:37:51.640 --> 0:37:55.280 People talk to themselves into the Seahawks and Jadevian Clowney, 0:37:55.480 --> 0:37:58.400 you know, going to town on Andy Dalton and the 0:37:58.440 --> 0:38:01.799 fact that the Bengals don't and have Aj Green. I'm 0:38:01.800 --> 0:38:04.680 really high on Joe Mixon as a running back this year, 0:38:05.239 --> 0:38:09.319 so I think if they can run the ball, maybe 0:38:09.360 --> 0:38:12.000 they'll maybe they'll stay in this game. Forty four sounds 0:38:12.040 --> 0:38:12.640 about right. 0:38:13.239 --> 0:38:13.479 YEP. 0:38:14.680 --> 0:38:17.280 I don't think there's gonna be a much crazy shift 0:38:17.640 --> 0:38:19.920 as far as the total, but yeah, it seems to 0:38:19.960 --> 0:38:20.399 make sense. 0:38:20.760 --> 0:38:22.600 I think the total probably stays where it is. I 0:38:22.640 --> 0:38:25.719 could see it moving to nine and a half just 0:38:25.920 --> 0:38:28.719 because there's some positive news coming out of Seattle. Sounds 0:38:28.760 --> 0:38:31.680 like DK Metcalf might actually play, and they re signed 0:38:32.000 --> 0:38:34.520 Jaron Brown, and I think Cody Glenn is in the 0:38:34.520 --> 0:38:37.000 concussion protocol so he may not play for the Bengals. 0:38:37.040 --> 0:38:40.480 So I think there's a lot of factors here that 0:38:40.520 --> 0:38:43.080 could certainly move the line a little bit more towards 0:38:43.120 --> 0:38:45.040 the Seahawks. So I think probably when all of a 0:38:45.040 --> 0:38:46.560 sudden done, it ends up at nine and a half. 0:38:46.600 --> 0:38:48.920 But I agree with you, I think forty four probably 0:38:49.000 --> 0:38:50.880 sounds like the right number. Let's move on now to 0:38:50.920 --> 0:38:54.040 the Giants at the Cowboys. The Cowboys are laying seven 0:38:54.040 --> 0:38:56.200 points in the over unders at forty five and a half. 0:38:56.239 --> 0:38:58.920 It opened pretty close to that Cowboys minus seven and 0:38:58.960 --> 0:39:00.640 a half. When it first came over, the over under 0:39:00.640 --> 0:39:02.000 was at forty six and a half. Now, we've got 0:39:02.040 --> 0:39:04.239 a lot of uncertainty here right as we record, there's 0:39:04.280 --> 0:39:07.880 not quite as much optimism, or now there might be more. 0:39:08.120 --> 0:39:10.960 It's changing by the minute as to whether Zeke signs, 0:39:10.960 --> 0:39:14.120 But even if he signs before week one, it's unclear 0:39:14.120 --> 0:39:16.400 what his workload is going to be. Amari Cooper is 0:39:16.400 --> 0:39:17.840 still a little bit of a question mark. So what 0:39:17.880 --> 0:39:20.120 are your thoughts here on the Cowboys laying seven and 0:39:20.120 --> 0:39:21.720 the over under at forty five and a half. 0:39:22.080 --> 0:39:24.440 Yeah, I mean, I guess this is kind of earlier 0:39:24.480 --> 0:39:27.320 we had talked about Robbie Anderson and would he possibly 0:39:27.840 --> 0:39:30.319 move the line, and you look at Zeke Elliott and 0:39:31.360 --> 0:39:34.480 I mean maybe he moved at half a point, because 0:39:34.880 --> 0:39:37.160 I would be surprised he plays or at least plays 0:39:37.160 --> 0:39:39.879 his normal load at this point, you know, when we're 0:39:39.920 --> 0:39:43.680 recording this. So even Zeke Elliott, who's you know, a 0:39:43.800 --> 0:39:47.200 huge part of the Cowboys offense, he only maybe moved 0:39:47.200 --> 0:39:49.000 it a half. You could certainly make a case for 0:39:49.880 --> 0:39:53.399 the fact that the Giants offensive line look better in preseason, 0:39:53.640 --> 0:39:57.319 and you know slight optimism coming out of Giants camp. 0:39:57.360 --> 0:40:00.000 There's also been a number of you know, the Giants, 0:40:00.000 --> 0:40:04.919 it's got a Golden Tate suspended. Certainly, Shepard broke his thumb, 0:40:04.960 --> 0:40:07.120 although it seems like he's close to one hundred percent. 0:40:07.840 --> 0:40:11.040 Their offensive line seems a little stronger. You know. The 0:40:11.120 --> 0:40:14.640 interesting thing here is again division game. That's a big number. 0:40:15.440 --> 0:40:20.000 But you know, the betting public is pretty down on 0:40:20.040 --> 0:40:24.520 Eli Manning as a quarterback, and rightfully so. So that's 0:40:25.320 --> 0:40:27.080 if that's who the Giants are going to try it 0:40:27.120 --> 0:40:30.160 out as a starter. I think plus seven makes sense. 0:40:30.520 --> 0:40:35.440 It's certainly is not gonna go below seven. If it's 0:40:35.440 --> 0:40:37.680 gonna go anywhere, it'll go up to seven and a half, 0:40:37.920 --> 0:40:41.879 maybe eight. You know, if Zeke plays, maybe they'll bump 0:40:41.920 --> 0:40:46.160 it up to eight. But yeah, and the Mary Cooper thing, 0:40:46.200 --> 0:40:48.560 I think a lot of people are talking about Zeke, 0:40:48.600 --> 0:40:50.640 whether he plays or not, as we're doing here. But 0:40:51.200 --> 0:40:53.920 I think if you if you look at the Cowboys offense, 0:40:54.000 --> 0:40:56.560 what really impacts him more has been a Mary Cooper 0:40:56.600 --> 0:40:58.920 playing or not playing. At least if you look at 0:40:58.920 --> 0:41:01.480 the numbers last year, he seemed to have a bigger impact. 0:41:01.680 --> 0:41:04.040 Interestingly enough, on the offense. If you compare it to 0:41:04.120 --> 0:41:07.640 when Zeke has missed time the previous year and Planner 0:41:07.680 --> 0:41:12.080 fasciitis is a that's a red flag injury because a 0:41:12.120 --> 0:41:14.799 lot of times what happens is a guy thinks he 0:41:14.840 --> 0:41:17.439 can play, or he does try and play, and he's 0:41:17.640 --> 0:41:21.239 just he's like sixty percent or like they It's an 0:41:21.239 --> 0:41:23.680 injury where a lot of guys try and play through 0:41:23.719 --> 0:41:27.560 it but are just very they're just have no bursts. 0:41:28.120 --> 0:41:29.799 And that's what you could really get in trouble if 0:41:29.840 --> 0:41:32.600 you're talking about handicapping the game or setting a fantasy lineup, 0:41:32.600 --> 0:41:36.360 because yeah, they'll be listed as probable or questionable and 0:41:36.360 --> 0:41:37.839 then you see they're out there and you're like, oh, 0:41:37.880 --> 0:41:41.080 it must be all right. But that that's a tricky, 0:41:41.160 --> 0:41:43.880 lingering injury and definitely something to keep an eye. 0:41:44.160 --> 0:41:46.680 Yeah, and his history with it is not great. When 0:41:46.719 --> 0:41:49.719 he's dealt with issues around that area, he has not 0:41:49.760 --> 0:41:51.799 played all that well. So out of curiosity, if it 0:41:51.800 --> 0:41:54.040 comes out that Cooper is going to miss the game, 0:41:54.200 --> 0:41:55.919 used to you don't think it drops the line below 0:41:55.960 --> 0:41:56.399 seven though? 0:41:56.440 --> 0:41:59.640 Right? No, that's the thing. I yeah, I don't think 0:41:59.680 --> 0:42:01.880 it'll move it a line, but I definitely think it 0:42:01.880 --> 0:42:04.960 should impact how you see the game going because I 0:42:05.000 --> 0:42:08.600 think if Zeke's out and Cooper's out, they're really gonna 0:42:08.640 --> 0:42:12.160 be in trouble as far as skill positions and and 0:42:12.280 --> 0:42:14.600 Cole Beasley was kind of his safety blanket. He doesn't 0:42:14.640 --> 0:42:15.280 have him there. 0:42:16.200 --> 0:42:18.680 But the Cowboys got Jason Witten back, baby, Yeah, don't 0:42:18.680 --> 0:42:19.200 worry about it. 0:42:19.920 --> 0:42:23.320 Yeah, that was a Jerry Jones didn't want the Cowboys 0:42:23.360 --> 0:42:26.080 brand being tarnished every Monday night by here and Jason 0:42:26.080 --> 0:42:27.200 witting on the broadcast. 0:42:27.360 --> 0:42:29.960 Yeah, that's exactly right. It's not a bad move. I 0:42:30.040 --> 0:42:31.040 like his strategy. 0:42:31.440 --> 0:42:35.160 Hey, you know, protect the brand. That really seems like 0:42:35.200 --> 0:42:36.160 you just bailed him out. 0:42:36.320 --> 0:42:39.120 But well, good for him. At least hopefully he can 0:42:39.160 --> 0:42:40.200 at least contribute. 0:42:40.560 --> 0:42:44.200 I wish my boss was as generous as Jerry Jones. 0:42:44.239 --> 0:42:46.480 Well, I hope your boss isn't listening to this, all right? 0:42:46.640 --> 0:42:49.879 Rams at the Panthers rams laying three. The over under 0:42:49.920 --> 0:42:51.880 is at fifty. It started at the rams lank two 0:42:51.920 --> 0:42:54.080 and a half and an over under fifty one. Not 0:42:54.200 --> 0:42:57.200 too much movement here. We've got Cam Newton's injury. It 0:42:57.200 --> 0:42:58.600 looks like he's going to be good to go. But 0:42:58.640 --> 0:42:59.480 what are your thoughts here? 0:42:59.760 --> 0:43:03.560 Yeah, yeah, And again the line makes sense because it's 0:43:03.600 --> 0:43:06.320 a West Coast team going to the East Coast. People 0:43:06.560 --> 0:43:10.680 have talked themselves into the Panthers once again. I'm really 0:43:10.719 --> 0:43:13.479 worried about Cam Newton. Like you watch Cam Newton before 0:43:13.520 --> 0:43:16.319 they shut him down last year. That shoulder, it just 0:43:16.480 --> 0:43:19.600 doesn't look right, and he like completely had to redo 0:43:19.640 --> 0:43:22.600 his throwing motion. And he listened to Ron Rivera and 0:43:22.640 --> 0:43:25.320 they're talking about how they're just gonna have to manage 0:43:25.360 --> 0:43:27.480 him throughout the season and that's just his shoulder, and 0:43:27.520 --> 0:43:30.480 then he had this weird foot sprain. I think he's 0:43:30.480 --> 0:43:33.160 got a lot of stuff to work through. On the 0:43:33.200 --> 0:43:37.319 other side, if you look at this Rams team, there 0:43:37.360 --> 0:43:40.080 is something if you lose the Super Bowl that next 0:43:40.080 --> 0:43:42.960 season is really tough. And you look at the trend 0:43:43.000 --> 0:43:46.400 of teams coming off a Super Bowl loss, their ats 0:43:46.680 --> 0:43:49.360 is not good. I don't but I think the public 0:43:49.440 --> 0:43:52.400 is kind of high on both these team so but 0:43:52.520 --> 0:43:55.760 obviously higher on the on the Rams. And that's why 0:43:56.080 --> 0:43:59.160 the spread is minus three for a road favorite. I 0:43:59.200 --> 0:44:01.279 don't think it's gonna be shifted one way or the other. 0:44:01.360 --> 0:44:04.280 The only thing that could shift it is if somehow 0:44:04.320 --> 0:44:06.200 Cam Newton is a late scratch. 0:44:06.080 --> 0:44:08.440 What happens? Out of curiosity to the line, do you 0:44:08.440 --> 0:44:09.640 think if Newton is scratched? 0:44:09.960 --> 0:44:11.680 I think it would go up to like six and 0:44:11.719 --> 0:44:14.759 a half or seven, Okay, I mean the thing is, 0:44:15.440 --> 0:44:19.160 which would be great for me because I like Will Greer. 0:44:20.320 --> 0:44:23.880 You know, obviously that's a tough first start for you, 0:44:23.920 --> 0:44:27.800 showing up against the Rams, but seven points is huge. 0:44:29.000 --> 0:44:32.600 But starting quarterbacks are really something that they'll automatically jump 0:44:32.640 --> 0:44:33.680 into the next key number. 0:44:33.719 --> 0:44:35.719 I feel like gotcham All right, let's move on to 0:44:35.800 --> 0:44:38.840 the Texans at the Saints. The Saints here are laying seven. 0:44:39.200 --> 0:44:41.120 The over under is at fifty three and a half. 0:44:41.160 --> 0:44:44.360 This is pretty interesting because you were we've been talking 0:44:44.440 --> 0:44:47.280 about tackles, of course, but you've got essentially an offense 0:44:47.320 --> 0:44:50.439 that has entirely remade their team a little bit over 0:44:50.440 --> 0:44:52.959 the last few days. They lost. The Texans lost Lamar 0:44:53.040 --> 0:44:55.840 Miller and j Davian Clowney. They've added Laramie Tunsel and 0:44:55.920 --> 0:44:59.120 Duke Johnson and Kenny Stilson. Yet everything has stayed almost 0:44:59.160 --> 0:45:01.920 exactly where it is. It opened at seven and a half, 0:45:01.960 --> 0:45:04.120 so it's moved only half a point. With the Saints 0:45:04.120 --> 0:45:06.960 now laying seven and the total has not moved at all. 0:45:07.000 --> 0:45:08.920 It opened at fifty three and a half. That is 0:45:08.960 --> 0:45:11.040 the highest of the week. So what's your reaction here 0:45:11.239 --> 0:45:11.880 to these lines? 0:45:12.120 --> 0:45:15.120 I what I opened up the week one lines and 0:45:15.200 --> 0:45:18.640 I hadn't been tracking this line, you know, the entire 0:45:18.640 --> 0:45:22.040 summer or whatever. I was shocked. This was the most 0:45:22.040 --> 0:45:25.799 surprising line. Honestly thought this was gonna be like three 0:45:25.880 --> 0:45:26.600 and a half four. 0:45:27.000 --> 0:45:29.279 You see why I kept it for our last right, 0:45:29.320 --> 0:45:32.120 you see why it ranks so low on the boring meter. 0:45:32.520 --> 0:45:34.759 No, and I think it'll be I think it'll be 0:45:34.800 --> 0:45:38.640 an exciting game. And just man, last season when the 0:45:38.680 --> 0:45:41.840 Saints lost outright to the Tampa Bay Bucks, I go, 0:45:41.960 --> 0:45:43.959 what the hell? And then you look back at their 0:45:44.000 --> 0:45:49.000 history and they've under Sean Payton, They've been horrible opening 0:45:49.080 --> 0:45:51.759 day and just early on in September. I don't know. 0:45:52.239 --> 0:45:54.840 They suffer from the same thing that the Patriots do, 0:45:55.440 --> 0:45:58.759 and this to me is shocking. The Texans come in 0:45:58.880 --> 0:46:03.000 highly motivated. Bill O'Brien is just saying, yeah, he's like 0:46:03.880 --> 0:46:07.040 he's like the drug friend, just you know, doing whatever 0:46:07.080 --> 0:46:08.759 it takes at the end of the night to talk 0:46:08.800 --> 0:46:11.799 to talk to a girl or whatever, because he is 0:46:11.880 --> 0:46:16.680 just clearly desperate. And I think that's I think that's 0:46:16.840 --> 0:46:19.520 it's just way too high. Like the Texans have a 0:46:19.520 --> 0:46:22.560 competent team. Larry By Tunsel. I don't know if he's 0:46:22.560 --> 0:46:25.839 still gonna start week one or whatever, but I mean 0:46:25.840 --> 0:46:27.839 they were eleven and five last year, like they're not 0:46:28.320 --> 0:46:30.800 They're not a tray, you know, they should be getting 0:46:30.840 --> 0:46:33.760 more respect from the line. I was really shocked. 0:46:34.120 --> 0:46:37.319 I couldn't agree more. And I when I looked at 0:46:37.360 --> 0:46:40.720 all the lines that are available, I expected to see, 0:46:40.800 --> 0:46:43.359 all right, somebody's got to at least be it, you know, 0:46:43.680 --> 0:46:46.160 minus six or something like that. So not now they 0:46:46.200 --> 0:46:48.839 are in locks that it is all the Saints lank 0:46:48.920 --> 0:46:51.879 seven across the board, and I completely agree. I tried 0:46:51.920 --> 0:46:53.880 to look at it now. I knew what it was originally, 0:46:53.920 --> 0:46:55.560 but I kind of put that in the back of 0:46:55.600 --> 0:46:57.759 my mind and I looked, yeah, this is more like 0:46:57.840 --> 0:47:01.480 the Saints lane forward, you know, some somewhere around there 0:47:01.520 --> 0:47:03.360 four and a half something, three and a half four. Yeah, 0:47:03.480 --> 0:47:05.560 it's not moving though, I mean it hasn't moved at all, 0:47:05.600 --> 0:47:07.239 So this is I mean, it's gonna be. 0:47:07.360 --> 0:47:11.160 Yeah, Drew Brees the second half. You know, after he 0:47:11.200 --> 0:47:15.200 took that crazy shot on Thanksgiving, he his numbers really dropped. 0:47:15.239 --> 0:47:17.480 I mean, he got rocked on that play and he 0:47:17.640 --> 0:47:21.680 was way more hesitant pushing the ball downfield. And perhaps 0:47:21.719 --> 0:47:24.239 we're kind of seeing him on the downward slide at 0:47:24.280 --> 0:47:27.400 the edge of his career. And Shaun Watson, by all 0:47:27.440 --> 0:47:30.880 accounts fully healthy. You know, he hasn't. He had the 0:47:30.880 --> 0:47:34.920 whole offseason to really get right physically. They brought in 0:47:35.000 --> 0:47:38.960 Duke Johnson, and it just Bill O'Brien is just, you know, 0:47:39.320 --> 0:47:40.600 coaching with some urgency and. 0:47:40.640 --> 0:47:42.960 Just yeah, he's going for it doing whatever. 0:47:43.440 --> 0:47:46.480 I wouldn't be if I'm a Texans fan, I'm seriously 0:47:46.520 --> 0:47:48.640 worried about their long term prospects. 0:47:48.680 --> 0:47:51.000 But you just got to block all that out, man. Yeah, 0:47:51.120 --> 0:47:52.960 just push all your chips in for this year. 0:47:53.239 --> 0:47:55.000 If you're a Texans fan, all I can say is 0:47:55.120 --> 0:47:56.040 enjoy this season. 0:47:56.719 --> 0:47:59.040 Yeah, let's hope it goes. Let's hope it goes better 0:47:59.160 --> 0:48:02.920 than than what your next several years and the draft 0:48:03.040 --> 0:48:05.320 is going to look like. So all right, let's finish 0:48:05.440 --> 0:48:07.479 up here with what I felt like was the most 0:48:07.520 --> 0:48:10.800 interesting game just because of Andrew Luck and everything that happened, 0:48:10.880 --> 0:48:13.000 and that's the Colts at the Chargers. The Chargers are 0:48:13.040 --> 0:48:15.640 currently laying six and a half and the over unders 0:48:15.680 --> 0:48:18.880 had forty five. So, you know, originally when Luck was, 0:48:19.000 --> 0:48:21.480 you know, they thought Luck was healthier, even with some 0:48:21.520 --> 0:48:23.840 of the question marks, the Chargers were laying three and 0:48:23.840 --> 0:48:25.920 a half and it was a forty eight point total. 0:48:25.920 --> 0:48:28.359 Now when the Luck news broke, this initially moved the 0:48:28.400 --> 0:48:30.719 line from three and a half to the Chargers laying 0:48:30.840 --> 0:48:32.759 seven and a half. But it's gone down at this 0:48:32.880 --> 0:48:35.600 point to six and a half. I mean, is this 0:48:35.800 --> 0:48:38.440 just sort of is this money coming in? Is it 0:48:38.480 --> 0:48:40.960 anything to do with the Melvin Gordon situation? What do 0:48:41.000 --> 0:48:43.080 you think it is? And at the line at six 0:48:43.120 --> 0:48:44.400 and a half, what are your thoughts on that? 0:48:44.760 --> 0:48:49.000 Yeah, I mean this is this is the most interesting game, 0:48:49.120 --> 0:48:52.640 right and I think they've probably found the right number. 0:48:53.040 --> 0:48:55.560 I wouldn't. I think I could get to an even seven. 0:48:56.360 --> 0:48:59.480 It's a it's a weird line history because it almost 0:48:59.480 --> 0:49:02.680 seemed like too much of a reaction when Luck was 0:49:02.719 --> 0:49:05.799 out because Jacoby Brissett was in the system. He's gotten 0:49:05.840 --> 0:49:08.319 a bunch of reps. They have a solid team around him. 0:49:08.600 --> 0:49:12.280 The Chargers have no home field advantage. Again, they're also 0:49:12.320 --> 0:49:16.400 missing their left tackle, so that should be a concern 0:49:16.440 --> 0:49:20.600 and something to factor in. You know, the Chargers always 0:49:20.600 --> 0:49:23.840 deal with these random injuries. The Chargers haven't looked great 0:49:23.960 --> 0:49:26.640 opening day as well. They've gotten off the slow starts. 0:49:27.239 --> 0:49:31.960 The Colts are really well coached. Frank Wright, he's just 0:49:31.960 --> 0:49:35.879 a solid coach. I think the Colts in a weird way. 0:49:36.480 --> 0:49:39.480 If I was just you know, looking at the emotional 0:49:39.520 --> 0:49:42.760 handicapping of this game, the Colts I do think rally 0:49:42.800 --> 0:49:45.200 around and this is kind of like, hey, win one 0:49:45.280 --> 0:49:48.000 for us, show people we're more than Andrew Luck, Like, 0:49:48.040 --> 0:49:50.120 it feels like they're coming in with something to prove. 0:49:50.840 --> 0:49:54.360 I think seven is probably I think where it would 0:49:54.400 --> 0:49:58.279 close eventually, because once the public gets involved in this 0:49:58.360 --> 0:50:01.279 game and does the mat that you know, Andrew Lux 0:50:01.360 --> 0:50:04.440 not the coach or sorry, not the quarterback anymore, or 0:50:04.480 --> 0:50:06.479 the coach. Maybe he'll one day we've got a coach 0:50:07.520 --> 0:50:11.719 through his backpacking the adventures are done. As far as 0:50:11.760 --> 0:50:17.560 the total, yes, forty five. Yes, it's kind of right 0:50:17.600 --> 0:50:20.120 in the middle. I think they're and you look around, 0:50:20.400 --> 0:50:22.840 this is probably one of the one of the bigger 0:50:22.880 --> 0:50:27.160 totals that has discrepancies, Like I'm over at betting pros 0:50:27.160 --> 0:50:29.160 and I'm seeing forty seven and a half to forty 0:50:29.160 --> 0:50:31.479 four and a half or even forty three and a half, 0:50:32.040 --> 0:50:34.480 but you're paying a little juice on that minus when thirty. 0:50:34.520 --> 0:50:37.640 So I think they're throwing this total out to kind 0:50:37.640 --> 0:50:41.520 of see where the market goes, because I don't think 0:50:41.600 --> 0:50:44.120 the the people said in the lines have a great 0:50:44.160 --> 0:50:46.680 idea as to how this colts. Offense is gonna look 0:50:46.800 --> 0:50:49.600 a lot of uncertainty, So I would think this is 0:50:49.680 --> 0:50:52.359 kind of at forty five. I wouldn't be surprised if 0:50:52.400 --> 0:50:55.239 it if it goes down rather. 0:50:55.040 --> 0:50:58.439 Than yeah, to me, I think this is roughly where 0:50:58.440 --> 0:51:00.000 it's gonna end up. I would think that the line 0:51:00.040 --> 0:51:02.880 line the spread is probably going to be at seven 0:51:03.239 --> 0:51:05.319 when all things are sent in. And again same thing 0:51:05.320 --> 0:51:07.960 with you over under with the spread. You can get 0:51:08.000 --> 0:51:10.359 it at plus seven at certain places, you can get 0:51:10.360 --> 0:51:12.879 it at plus six at some places. I mean, I mean, 0:51:12.960 --> 0:51:13.880 I know what to do. 0:51:14.320 --> 0:51:16.560 I saw like when the luck news happened, I saw 0:51:16.800 --> 0:51:19.239 as high as nine and a half some places, So 0:51:19.840 --> 0:51:22.080 I mean that's crazy just comparing a nine and a 0:51:22.080 --> 0:51:23.920 half point spread to a six and a half point spread, 0:51:23.960 --> 0:51:27.560 when in between there no news has occurred. I think 0:51:27.560 --> 0:51:30.520 they're really struggling if I'm looking for this number. Yeah, 0:51:30.800 --> 0:51:32.680 if I was running a sportsbook, I would say it 0:51:32.760 --> 0:51:34.160 at seven and just walk away. 0:51:34.320 --> 0:51:37.120 I completely agree. I think of all the numbers, this 0:51:37.200 --> 0:51:40.359 is the one that I can see changing probably the most. 0:51:40.400 --> 0:51:42.200 I mean, I could see it. I think it's probably 0:51:42.280 --> 0:51:43.759 going to end up at seven, and I think it'll 0:51:43.760 --> 0:51:46.520 stick at forty five, but I could see it moving more, 0:51:46.600 --> 0:51:48.880 just because it really feels throughout this entire thing like 0:51:48.960 --> 0:51:50.640 they don't really know how to get a handle of it. 0:51:50.840 --> 0:51:53.440 Yeah, I think they're I think they're letting the volume 0:51:53.600 --> 0:51:57.279 really dictate this one. Sometimes they'll, you know, they'll they 0:51:57.320 --> 0:51:59.400 won't be afraid to take a position or a side 0:51:59.719 --> 0:52:02.520 or based on seeing, you know, where the money's coming 0:52:02.560 --> 0:52:05.239 in really kind of way in. But this one, I 0:52:05.239 --> 0:52:07.480 think they're kind of just leaving it out there for 0:52:07.520 --> 0:52:09.080 the public to figure out. Yep. 0:52:09.200 --> 0:52:11.279 That's why it was the most interesting lines, my friend, 0:52:11.320 --> 0:52:13.880 That's why I said it that. Thanks man, All right, 0:52:13.920 --> 0:52:15.560 Well that's going to do it for today's show. Sean. 0:52:15.600 --> 0:52:17.600 It was really great having you on. I really hope 0:52:17.600 --> 0:52:18.920 we can do it again during the season. 0:52:19.080 --> 0:52:21.919 Awesome man, Yeah, drop me a line and you don't 0:52:21.920 --> 0:52:24.239 have to twist my arm to talk about NFL gameless. 0:52:24.760 --> 0:52:27.960 Absolutely, thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, Play MGM. 0:52:28.200 --> 0:52:30.759 Remember to download the play MGM Sports app and use 0:52:30.800 --> 0:52:33.600 the promo code Harris to get your risk free first 0:52:33.600 --> 0:52:35.640 wager of up to one hundred dollars. And if you've 0:52:35.640 --> 0:52:38.279 been listening to this podcast regularly, you know that we 0:52:38.280 --> 0:52:40.640 had an August contest where we were giving away an 0:52:40.680 --> 0:52:44.080 autographed Christian McCaffrey helmet. I am going to randomly select 0:52:44.080 --> 0:52:46.239 a winner and I will announce it on our next show. 0:52:46.440 --> 0:52:48.439 And if that winner is not you don't get down. 0:52:48.480 --> 0:52:51.520 We're going to be running another similar contests for September. 0:52:51.760 --> 0:52:53.759 And if you left the review for the podcast and 0:52:53.800 --> 0:52:56.560 sent it and already you are automatically entered. We'll be 0:52:56.560 --> 0:52:58.760 back later this week giving some of our best bets 0:52:58.760 --> 0:53:01.560 for Week one. Until then, enjoy your last few days 0:53:01.560 --> 0:53:17.920 without football.