Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by play MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We've talked about the sports
Speaker 1: betting landscape. We've talked about wind totals and team futures
Speaker 1: and player futures, and how sportsbooks reacted to the Andrew
Speaker 1: Luck news and betting trends that we've noticed. But now
Speaker 1: finally we get to move away from the longview and
Speaker 1: focus on a weekly analysis. Starting now, we're going to
Speaker 1: have two shows each week. The first one, which we'll
Speaker 1: record Monday night, will take a look at the spreads
Speaker 1: and over unders for every game that upcoming week. That's
Speaker 1: just going to be our reaction to the lines and
Speaker 1: where we think they might move by game time. The
Speaker 1: second podcast, later in the week, we'll address some of
Speaker 1: our best bets. This in case you hit your head
Speaker 1: and blacked out for a bit and think it's Thursday
Speaker 1: or something. Is the first one of the week, and
Speaker 1: with me to break down all the lines for week
Speaker 1: one is Sean Green. Usually I try to give like
Speaker 1: a five word description of who our guest is, but
Speaker 1: I cannot possibly sum up Sean that quickly. He is
Speaker 1: the co creator of the sports Gambling podcast. He is
Speaker 1: the host of Sewan's Sports Show. He is the co
Speaker 1: host of Untied on Mad Dog Sports Serious XM. He
Speaker 1: is a comedian and a writer, and he invented that
Speaker 1: valve do Hickey on the artificial Heart. Fine, I made
Speaker 1: that last one up. That's actually just a line from
Speaker 1: one of the most underrated movies of all time, My
Speaker 1: Blue Heaven with Steve Martin Rick moranis but the rest
Speaker 1: of that is all true. You can find him on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Seawan T. Green Shawn. Thank you for coming
Speaker 1: on the show. How is it going?
Speaker 2: Awesome? Man, Thanks for having me on. Yeah. I probably
Speaker 2: need that heart valve thing. Sweating out these week one
Speaker 2: NFL games.
Speaker 1: Oh man, I am so excited that it's finally time.
Speaker 1: It's so ridiculous. And look, I mean, you know, I'm interested,
Speaker 1: of course in sports gambling in every single sport. Frank,
Speaker 1: I love the WNBA actually, and I've talked about that
Speaker 1: a couple of times. I think that sometime where you
Speaker 1: can really if you're attention, you can really make some money.
Speaker 1: But there is nothing like real football to get us going.
Speaker 1: So for me, this is basically like the last It's
Speaker 1: like leading up to Christmas morning, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: Oh, totally yeah, And through the summer, the long summer,
Speaker 2: you're just counting down the days to finally bet on NFL.
Speaker 2: I did. I Actually I hit a couple of parlays
Speaker 2: betting the NFL preseason, so I'm already ahead of the game,
Speaker 2: which is pretty rare. Normally I don't do that much
Speaker 2: NFL preseason, but I dabbed a little bit, hit a
Speaker 2: couple and yeah, I'm already I'm starting out ahead, which
Speaker 2: is a nice place to start.
Speaker 1: That's always great. You know, we were thinking about doing
Speaker 1: a couple of preseason episodes to address, you know, betting
Speaker 1: on some of the preseason games, so we just did
Speaker 1: not have enough time. But that's good because now I
Speaker 1: know I can book you for next season and you
Speaker 1: can be the preseason betting experts since you're clearly one
Speaker 1: of the top minds in the game when.
Speaker 2: It comes to well, spoiler alert, just keep betting on
Speaker 2: the Ravens. For some reason, they keep winning every Harboll's
Speaker 2: won seventeen preseason games in a row or something. Insane.
Speaker 2: So there you go. That's a little nugget for next season.
Speaker 1: You can do absolutely nothing else on this podcast, and
Speaker 1: you have already provided tons of value to the listeners.
Speaker 1: So congratu. Like you're betting you're already off to a
Speaker 1: great start. So all right, Look, it's opening week. Things
Speaker 1: are a little different than usual here in that there
Speaker 1: really isn't all that much recent news for sportsbooks to
Speaker 1: react to at this point. For example, on any given week,
Speaker 1: there are going to be injuries or developments on that
Speaker 1: previous Sunday. But here, other than things like whether Cam
Speaker 1: Newton is gonna play and he probably will, or whether
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon is going to report and he probably won't,
Speaker 1: there's not much that's going to make a difference. So
Speaker 1: Shawn and I are going to quickly hit all the
Speaker 1: lines here. But as I said earlier, we're not going
Speaker 1: to be giving picks on this show. This is really
Speaker 1: about going through the lines and giving you our reaction
Speaker 1: to them. So Sewan, look, you host plenty of shows,
Speaker 1: as I listed, but this is my show, and it
Speaker 1: is a no nonsense show, and I make the rules,
Speaker 1: so we are going to go through them in the
Speaker 1: order of least interesting to most interesting based on my
Speaker 1: unofficial boring rankings.
Speaker 2: Okay, i'd like, yeah, I like this. I want to,
Speaker 2: I want to. I'm interested to see where you're gonna
Speaker 2: start off as the Borinus game of the NFL Week one.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, look, there's like an eight way tie,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna I'm gonna just pick one of them
Speaker 1: and go with it. Now, for the spreads and the
Speaker 1: over unders, we're gonna be using the bettingpros dot Com
Speaker 1: consensus numbers. That is an aggregation of the odds that
Speaker 1: are available on the market. And you're gonna hear me
Speaker 1: say this a lot over the course of these shows,
Speaker 1: but there are occasionally pretty significant differences in the odds
Speaker 1: that are available in the market. For example, with the
Speaker 1: Cults and the Chargers, you'll see that you can get
Speaker 1: a full point difference in the spread depending on where
Speaker 1: you look. For the Bengals and the Seahawks, there's actually
Speaker 1: a point and a half difference between two of the sportsbooks.
Speaker 1: And again, we're gonna be using the bettingpros dot Com
Speaker 1: consensus odds because that best represents what the market is showing.
Speaker 1: But bettingpros dot Com will also let you see all
Speaker 1: the odds that are available at various sportsbooks. So it
Speaker 1: is a good thing to check out if you're looking
Speaker 1: to maximize your return on your investment. And as we'll
Speaker 1: talk about more next show, you can do a ton
Speaker 1: more over at bettingpros dot com, like at consensus picks
Speaker 1: from experts, and you can see accuracy rankings. But for now,
Speaker 1: just know that when I list any given odds, they're
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot Com consensus ods. So, Sean, let's start with
Speaker 1: a game that few people outside of gamblers and fantasy
Speaker 1: players are gonna watch, and that's gonna be the final
Speaker 1: game of the week, The Broncos at the Raiders Super
Speaker 1: late for me on the East Coast on Monday night,
Speaker 1: just getting started for you on the West coast. The
Speaker 1: Raiders here are laying half a point and the over
Speaker 1: under is at forty three. Now, when the lines first
Speaker 1: came out months ago, that's where the overunder was forty three.
Speaker 1: It has not moved, but the line actually opened at
Speaker 1: the Raiders laying two and a half points, so it
Speaker 1: has dropped two full points. What is your reaction to
Speaker 1: this line, if.
Speaker 2: Any Well, yeah, I mean, uh yeah, see that's right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, uh whatever, Right, that's exactly right. It's just it's
Speaker 1: the most boring. It's not the one on the list
Speaker 1: of boring lines.
Speaker 2: I think the it's interesting. I'm surprised it wouldn't be
Speaker 2: a little higher for the Raiders. The public seems to
Speaker 2: be somewhat high on the Raiders, and they usually the
Speaker 2: hard knocks team will usually get a little bit of
Speaker 2: a push. I think there's been a crazy trend of
Speaker 2: the visiting team going six to zero or something like
Speaker 2: that in this division matchup. But yeah, to me, the
Speaker 2: matchup here is Vic Fangio versus John grud as far
Speaker 2: as coaching, So that's what I'm really looking forward to.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, we're gonna be watching it because we're
Speaker 1: gonna be watching every football game. But I mean, when
Speaker 1: I see this line, it looks relatively where it needs
Speaker 1: to be. There's nothing too exciting here. There's no real developments.
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown is going to play, he was always going
Speaker 1: to play. It's essentially a pickham game. Now it's a
Speaker 1: low over under total and that makes sense to me.
Speaker 1: But really, Raiders laying half a point relatively a pick them.
Speaker 1: I think they'll hold that half a point, and I
Speaker 1: think the over under is going to wind up at
Speaker 1: forty three. So again, nothing really exciting here. It's not
Speaker 1: a game that anybody except gamblers and fantasy players really
Speaker 1: want to watch. So let's move on to number two
Speaker 1: in the boring rankings, and that's the Falcons at the Vikings.
Speaker 1: The Vikings here are laying three and a half points.
Speaker 1: The over under is at forty seven. Now again, the
Speaker 1: spread opened at the Vikings laying four and a half
Speaker 1: and a forty seven and a half total, So the
Speaker 1: spread has moved in favor of the Falcons just a
Speaker 1: little bit since it first opened months ago. Do you
Speaker 1: have any thoughts when looking at those numbers?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess it's kind of where I expected. I
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if this number closes closer to three.
Speaker 2: I think these teams are pretty evenly matched, both Dome teams.
Speaker 2: It's interesting to me that they're you know, the betting
Speaker 2: public has got it so that the Vikings are laying
Speaker 2: that extra half point. You know, normally you're saying home
Speaker 2: Field's worth three, they're giving them three and a half.
Speaker 2: Maybe they're just factoring in. I know Minnesota has a
Speaker 2: pretty good home field advantage usually that really helps their defense,
Speaker 2: but again, the Falcons are a dome team, so I
Speaker 2: don't know if the noise and that kind of stuff
Speaker 2: affects them as much as your typical road team.
Speaker 1: That's right. The surprising thing to me was honestly that
Speaker 1: it opened at four and a half, because to me,
Speaker 1: this does feel everything about it kind of feels like
Speaker 1: if they're on a neutral field, it's a pick them right,
Speaker 1: which would make it essentially three. So at three and
Speaker 1: a half, I think it's fine. I could see it
Speaker 1: moving to three, as you said, But in the end,
Speaker 1: my guess is this is not something where I think
Speaker 1: better as sharps or the public are really going to
Speaker 1: push one way or another. The over under at forty
Speaker 1: seven is right around I think where it needs to be.
Speaker 1: Both teams have relatively strong defenses. The Vikings certainly have
Speaker 1: a strong one, so it's kind of high when you
Speaker 1: think about it in that sense, but again, both teams
Speaker 1: are basically capable of bearing it out at any given moment.
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh sorry, I was just going to say the Vikings.
Speaker 2: There's been a couple offensive coordinators teams that have kind
Speaker 2: of signaled their intention as far as what they're going
Speaker 2: to do on offense, and the Vikings have kind of
Speaker 2: gone out of their way to say they're going to
Speaker 2: pound the rock more and run the ball more. I mean,
Speaker 2: they do have two really good receivers, but that's something
Speaker 2: that I would keep an eye on because listen, if
Speaker 2: you're running the ball more, it could have an impact
Speaker 2: on the total.
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. In the end, my guess is Vikings
Speaker 1: three and a half at most. You're gonna see Vikings
Speaker 1: go to plus three minus three at this point, and
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that the over ender is going to
Speaker 1: stay right at about forty seven. If or no of
Speaker 1: the reason. Then again, both teams have kind of telegraphed
Speaker 1: what they do, especially the Vikings. Next on our list
Speaker 1: is forty nine ers at Bucks. The Bucks are laying
Speaker 1: one and the over under is at fifty. This opened
Speaker 1: at the Bucks laying two and a forty nine total,
Speaker 1: so it has moved slightly. Look, you must be super
Speaker 1: excited about this line, right, This has just got strong
Speaker 1: reaction written all over it.
Speaker 2: Oh. I mean not to tip my hand, but I've
Speaker 2: been super high. If you listen to our division previews,
Speaker 2: super high on the Tampa Bay Bucks and really down
Speaker 2: on the forty nine ers. Jimmy Garoppolo has just not
Speaker 2: looked great in preseason at all, in practice at all.
Speaker 2: And it's one of those old betting trends of a
Speaker 2: West Coast team go to an East Coast team or
Speaker 2: you know, going to the East Coast. And another trend
Speaker 2: worth looking at is these Florida teams at home in September.
Speaker 2: If you saw last year, I think I think all
Speaker 2: three Florida teams went three and zero to start off
Speaker 2: the season. And with the way that they've kind of
Speaker 2: adjusted in the collective bargaining that they can't practice these
Speaker 2: guys as hard, humidity and heat early increases the home
Speaker 2: field advantage. So that's definitely something I factor into my
Speaker 2: handicapping is high elevation teams and Florida teams are where
Speaker 2: it's going to be super hot or humid, especially early
Speaker 2: in the season.
Speaker 1: So out of curiosity, if you were going to predict
Speaker 1: a line, if you didn't know what it was, would
Speaker 1: you have thought that the Bucks were then laying two
Speaker 1: or three or something like that.
Speaker 2: Well, I guess I think it should be Bucks, mindus three. However,
Speaker 2: I know the forty nine ers the public is kind
Speaker 2: of on them, so I'm not surprised that they've kind
Speaker 2: of made it a pick because the forty nine Ers,
Speaker 2: the consensus I think from the public is, oh, they
Speaker 2: have a really good team, sh had hands, a really
Speaker 2: good coach. All they got to Jimmy G was hurt
Speaker 2: last year. That's why they were bad. Just swap him in.
Speaker 2: Now that he's healthy, they'll be fine. One I don't
Speaker 2: think Jimmy G is completely healthy or completely right. He
Speaker 2: also struggled in those three games before he blew out
Speaker 2: his ACL and Nick Mullins didn't do a horrible job
Speaker 2: for that forty nine ers team. Like, there's a lot
Speaker 2: more issues going on in San Francisco than just Jimmy
Speaker 2: G not being there.
Speaker 1: All right, So let me ask you this, then, what
Speaker 1: about the total at fifty that's a fairly high total.
Speaker 1: It's not you know, I think it's probably fourth maybe
Speaker 1: fifth highest for the week, but fifties a fairly high total.
Speaker 1: I know the Bucks have what may be an explosive offense,
Speaker 1: especially with Bruce arians running the ship, But do you feel,
Speaker 1: you know, if the forty nine ers, you know, you
Speaker 1: sound of course down on that offense? Did you expect
Speaker 1: the total then to maybe be a little lower. Is
Speaker 1: it more a question about the Bucks defense?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Bucks could still have issues on defense.
Speaker 2: You're right, fifty for an opening day is kind of high.
Speaker 1: That's really what what came out to me. I mean,
Speaker 1: I know it opened at forty nine. If anything, I
Speaker 1: kind of expected it to go down to forty eight
Speaker 1: and a half, especially, you know, given how hot it's
Speaker 1: going to be, which you mentioned assuming because it's in Florida.
Speaker 1: You know, I just feel like in the end, you know,
Speaker 1: guys are going to be you know, they're not going
Speaker 1: to be ready to go yet. You know, it's the
Speaker 1: week one. I thought because of the question marks on
Speaker 1: offense with the forty nine ers, which are right. Everything
Speaker 1: you're saying about Garoppolo is right. And you know, the Bucks,
Speaker 1: although they're pretty explosive, you know, the Winston was sacked
Speaker 1: five times in that third preseason game. You know, the
Speaker 1: running game can't do anything. I'm not sure they're going
Speaker 1: to be able to score it well. So for me,
Speaker 1: the thing that stuck out to me was less about
Speaker 1: the spread Bucks laying one. I'm fine, I could see
Speaker 1: it anywhere from the Bucks laying one two, as you said,
Speaker 1: the Bucks laying three I think would be fine. But
Speaker 1: the over under at fifty, I really felt like when
Speaker 1: I was predicting it that that was sort of it
Speaker 1: would have been about a point and a half lower
Speaker 1: somewhere around there.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you look at some of the the
Speaker 2: other games Tampa Bay hosted in September last year, and
Speaker 2: they did score in the high forties. Eagles they beat
Speaker 2: twenty seven to twenty one, so that's forty eight, and
Speaker 2: Steelers they lost twenty seven to thirty. So I guess
Speaker 2: that's kind of what they're that high total on. But
Speaker 2: I'm worried about I'm worried about San Francisco's ability to
Speaker 2: score on the road.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I guess you know, one thing to
Speaker 1: take away from this is that the preseason probably doesn't
Speaker 1: move the needle very much from the opening lines, right,
Speaker 1: because that you know that the forty nine ers, as
Speaker 1: you said, look terrible. Garoppolo other than Week three where
Speaker 1: he looked passable, you know, not great, but certainly did
Speaker 1: not shine in the preseason, But the it didn't move
Speaker 1: much that the line moved in favor of the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers. Actually so yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: And I don't think you know, the betting public, I
Speaker 2: think is since so few of starters are playing now,
Speaker 2: I think it's impacting even less and less as far
Speaker 2: as what they do to adjust the number based off
Speaker 2: what happens in preseason.
Speaker 1: Yep, I think that makes sense. All right, Let's move
Speaker 1: to the Titans at the Browns. The Browns here are
Speaker 1: laying five and a half points. The over under is
Speaker 1: that forty five and a half, and this has really
Speaker 1: barely moved since it opened. It opened at the Browns
Speaker 1: laying five with a forty five point total, so a
Speaker 1: half a point movement in both of those lines. Any
Speaker 1: reaction to those numbers, Yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Would say that that kind of makes sense. Again, you know,
Speaker 2: when they're setting these lines, they're looking to get even
Speaker 2: money on both sides. And I know the Browns are
Speaker 2: just have been a huge public team. They just are
Speaker 2: like they're the kind of the darling as far as
Speaker 2: Super Bowl picks.
Speaker 1: Or you know, and Mayfield is MVP. The public's all
Speaker 1: over them.
Speaker 2: The public's all over them. No one's hyping up Tennessee.
Speaker 2: And so you know, there's probably a point point and
Speaker 2: a half baked into that line. Listen, Tennessee, they were
Speaker 2: what nine and seven last year? Brown seven, eight and one.
Speaker 2: Brown's kind of had a thing last year where they
Speaker 2: stuck up on people. Now they've they've cho you know,
Speaker 2: they painted a giant target on their chest. And if
Speaker 2: you're looking to find value long term and betting, fading
Speaker 2: the public.
Speaker 1: Is always the thing to do, correct always.
Speaker 2: Yeah, one in doubt, just go against the betting public.
Speaker 2: They didn't build these million dollars sports and casinos by
Speaker 2: being on the wrong side historically. So if you see
Speaker 2: a team that's getting a ton of early hype, the
Speaker 2: public's clearly backing them, you know, be hesitant on taking them,
Speaker 2: or just know that if you are going to take them,
Speaker 2: you're probably you know, paying an extra point point and
Speaker 2: a half premium to bet that team. So all that
Speaker 2: stuff's kind of worth factoring in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I expected this spread is fine. You know, I
Speaker 1: have no problem with five and a half. I would
Speaker 1: have felt that it probably should have been in around
Speaker 1: five where it opened. But the over under strikes me
Speaker 1: as a little high. I mean, both these teams are
Speaker 1: defensive teams. Again, it could just be sort of public perception.
Speaker 1: As you said, they're trying to get you know, basically
Speaker 1: even money on both sides. So it could be really
Speaker 1: the public perception, but it seems to me, given the
Speaker 1: strength of the two defenses, that would be more like
Speaker 1: a forty four and a half, you know, instead of
Speaker 1: it moving up moving down. My guess is that that's
Speaker 1: based much more on the money coming in rather than
Speaker 1: what they expect.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, And I'm looking over at betting pros right now.
Speaker 2: They have the consensus numbers and just as I thought,
Speaker 2: Cleveland getting sixty nine percent at minus five and a half.
Speaker 2: So anytime you get like high sixties, seventies, I mean,
Speaker 2: anything that's up around eighty, then you really gotta like
Speaker 2: just factor that into decide you're on.
Speaker 1: Absolutely. Let's move on now to the Redskins at the Eagles.
Speaker 1: We've got the Eagles laying nine and a half and
Speaker 1: the over under at forty five and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: this is actually one of the more significant movers since
Speaker 1: the totals first opened. The Eagles were originally laying eight
Speaker 1: in most places, and the total was at forty six
Speaker 1: and a half. Basically, it looks like there's just doubt
Speaker 1: as to whether the Redskins can actually score any points,
Speaker 1: and I don't necessarily think that that doubt is unfounded.
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts there on the nine and a
Speaker 1: half and the over under at forty five and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I'm a Dahard Eagles fan.
Speaker 1: So can you be objective?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Can you be objective? I'm a Jets fan, man, So
Speaker 1: I can still do this. I can still get up
Speaker 1: in the morning. You just got to power through.
Speaker 2: Any The NFCA is historically has been a super competitive
Speaker 2: division and anytime a divisional game you're getting close to
Speaker 2: double digits, I mean you gotta look to the dog.
Speaker 2: The issue here is Washington's left tackle, one of the
Speaker 2: strengths of their team, is just refusing to play because
Speaker 2: of his issues with the medical staff. They're starting Eric Flowers,
Speaker 2: a right guard who is a horrible offensive lineman, and
Speaker 2: they're bringing in Case Keenum, who the last time in
Speaker 2: Case Keenum was a quarterback for the Redskins. He got
Speaker 2: destroyed in the NFC Championship game with a much more
Speaker 2: talented Vikings team. So I think Washington is going to
Speaker 2: have trouble moving the ball and scoring.
Speaker 1: Wait, look, hold on, everything you were saying is dead on.
Speaker 1: And because of that, How is it possible that this
Speaker 1: isn't actually double digits. That's really what I'm surprised that.
Speaker 1: I mean, legitimately, everything you're saying is absolutely correct. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: maybe not. I'm going to be so prize that if
Speaker 1: this does not get to ten by the time game
Speaker 1: time rolls around, because there's got to be money coming in.
Speaker 1: This seems to me. I was shocked, honestly when I
Speaker 1: sort of closed my eyes and said, okay, let me
Speaker 1: think before I started even looking at any of this,
Speaker 1: what this would be at this point, given everything that
Speaker 1: you just correctly brought out, I would think that it's
Speaker 1: honestly got to move a little to I'm fine with
Speaker 1: the over under. I'm fine with that, but I would
Speaker 1: think would go over. But it's worth noting I mentioned
Speaker 1: that you can sometimes get different odds at different sports books.
Speaker 1: This is at nine and a half across the board.
Speaker 1: Everybody is in unison, so I must be missing something here.
Speaker 1: But to me, I honestly think that this should be
Speaker 1: at ten, maybe even ten and a half, probably ten,
Speaker 1: and that I think it might end up there when
Speaker 1: all of a sudden done.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I don't know if you on the
Speaker 2: podcast if you discuss key numbers a lot, but for
Speaker 2: you know, in the NFL, key number three, four, seven,
Speaker 2: in a weird way, nine is oftentimes a key number
Speaker 2: for the sportsbook. So if the spreads at seven and
Speaker 2: a half a lot of times and gonna move it
Speaker 2: up a lot of times, they'll jump it up to
Speaker 2: nine to kind of they call it teaser protection, right,
Speaker 2: So if you're doing a six point teaser, they don't
Speaker 2: want you to be able to get the game down
Speaker 2: to three or you know, under three, and you're getting
Speaker 2: under that key number of three. So that's why, you know,
Speaker 2: once it was at seven and a half eight, and
Speaker 2: then they saw it was gonna go up, they jumped
Speaker 2: it up to like nine and a half. So if
Speaker 2: you tease it down, it only goes down to three
Speaker 2: and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I do get that. I completely get that. Still,
Speaker 1: this line needs to move to ten. And I'm going,
Speaker 1: all right, let's go to the only line in any
Speaker 1: normal regular sports fan should ever care about the only
Speaker 1: game bills of Jets. Of course, the Jets here are
Speaker 1: laying three. The over under is set at forty. Now
Speaker 1: this open up. The Jets lank three and a half
Speaker 1: with a minuscool thirty eight and a half point total,
Speaker 1: but it has moved just a little bit up. Any
Speaker 1: thoughts on those lines, No.
Speaker 2: I mean, if you give me a blindfold and told
Speaker 2: me to pick the spread, I would definitely would have
Speaker 2: guessed three. Yep, very very similar, similar teams, similar states
Speaker 2: of where they're at. The Bills defensive minded team, Sean
Speaker 2: McDermott really coached up the defense well, and then you
Speaker 2: got just a real wild card of quarterback Josh Allen,
Speaker 2: who's made some plays, have made some crazy turnovers. And
Speaker 2: then you got the Jets, who they got some weapons
Speaker 2: for Sam Darnold. I do think Donald will have a
Speaker 2: much better second year under Adam Gase and just helping
Speaker 2: him out with Le'Veon Bell. There's certainly some questions Jets defense.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I three totally makes sense, and I think
Speaker 2: this is a good a good barometer game for both
Speaker 2: these teams. I think you'll get a kind of idea
Speaker 2: of where these teams are at. As far as who's
Speaker 2: gonna be runner up to the Patriots, No offense.
Speaker 1: I'm none taken. I mean to even be in the
Speaker 1: conversation of being a quote unquote runner up I will
Speaker 1: take any day of the week. Two questions. Robbie Anderson
Speaker 1: is likely to play in this game if he misses
Speaker 1: the game. I mean that's the last I heard. He
Speaker 1: was questionable for the week. If Anderson missed the game,
Speaker 1: do you think that moves the spread at all?
Speaker 2: No? No, I mean I would be pretty surprised if
Speaker 2: you're if you're a non quarterback, you have to be
Speaker 2: really like top tier to have an impact on the
Speaker 2: on the spread. Usually it could be maybe Robbie Anderson
Speaker 2: goes out and a lot of people at him on
Speaker 2: their fantasy team and all of a sudden they're they're
Speaker 2: pounding the bills. But generally the linemakers won't really adjust
Speaker 2: their number off a guy. It has to be a
Speaker 2: pretty big name running back or receiver for to really
Speaker 2: make an impact to me when I'm when I'm looking
Speaker 2: at games, left tackle is a huge one, and offensive
Speaker 2: line in general, and this is again a nice way
Speaker 2: to find values. A lot of times, you know, jo
Speaker 2: Q Public when on offensive lineman like Trent Williams for
Speaker 2: the Redskins, or or Laramie Tunsell, who the Dolphins just
Speaker 2: traded away. A lot of times when stuff like that happens.
Speaker 2: The public, in their mind, doesn't compensate enough for that,
Speaker 2: and they'll compensate more for a guy like Robbie Anderson,
Speaker 2: who they'll probably be able to still have some offensive
Speaker 2: production without, but not having a left tackle, especially with
Speaker 2: a guy like Sam Dartled. If the left tackle was
Speaker 2: supposed to go out, that would definitely adjust my number,
Speaker 2: and maybe not for the public.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna talk about the left tackles, actually, because
Speaker 1: when we get to the Texans, we'll talk about the
Speaker 1: fact that hasn't really moved very much, and I thought
Speaker 1: that the addition of Tunsel actually might move that line
Speaker 1: a little more. I said two questions, but I'm going
Speaker 1: to skip the second one because frankly, we just can't
Speaker 1: spend too much time on the pills and the Jets.
Speaker 1: Let's be honest. Let's move on to another not all
Speaker 1: that exciting game, the Lions at the Cardinals. The Lions
Speaker 1: are laying two and a half here. The over under
Speaker 1: is at forty seven and a half. This originally opened
Speaker 1: as a pickum game and the over under was at
Speaker 1: forty nine, so the over under has been steadily dropping.
Speaker 1: It was forty eight just a day or two ago.
Speaker 1: Now it's at forty seven and a half. How do
Speaker 1: you feel about both those lines?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Detroit as a road favorite is historically
Speaker 2: kind of scary. Yeah, but again, that's what Matt Stafford does.
Speaker 2: Matt Stafford beats bad teams. And I think the line
Speaker 2: movement came courtesy of watching Kyler Murray play in the preseason.
Speaker 2: So this is a game where I do think watching
Speaker 2: the players in preseason did rightly adjust the line movement.
Speaker 2: Huge questions on the Cardinals on the defensive side of
Speaker 2: the ball, and just Kyler Murray in general, rookie quarterback
Speaker 2: making his first home start. I guess it kind of
Speaker 2: makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised if this gets above
Speaker 2: three at kickoff. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cardinals
Speaker 2: plus three and a half because they're just Yeah, it's
Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury's first start in the NFL, A guy who
Speaker 2: wasn't competent enough to coach coach college football and then
Speaker 2: somehow got a promotion into the National Football League. A
Speaker 2: lot of questions and I'm not even them, not even
Speaker 2: a huge Lions backers. There certainly questions about Matt Patrician
Speaker 2: and the stuff they're doing.
Speaker 1: I think for me, the bigger number here was the
Speaker 1: over under. Yeah, forty seven and a half. I you know,
Speaker 1: I understand the questions on defense, especially for the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: but you know, it struck me as too high, and
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised that it moved and that it was,
Speaker 1: you know, originally forty nine, recently forty eight. Now at
Speaker 1: forty seven and a half. I could see it even
Speaker 1: going to forty seven. I think that, you know, it
Speaker 1: just it seems given what we saw for exactly what
Speaker 1: you said, given what we saw from the Cardinals offense
Speaker 1: in the preseason, and it might be different. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, Kingsbury said that he was keeping at vanilla,
Speaker 1: so you never really know how it's going to go.
Speaker 1: But to me, the total seemed to be a little high. Again,
Speaker 1: that's right about you know where you know, not not crazy,
Speaker 1: but I would have thought it more like forty seven,
Speaker 1: maybe forty six and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I do think that's reaction to seeing the
Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals offense in preseason. Yeah, even if they're doing
Speaker 2: a vanilla scheme, there's still some basic execution stuff that
Speaker 2: he was clearly struggling with. So I think originally when
Speaker 2: they hung a forty nine, their thought was, Wow, they're
Speaker 2: gonna move the ball on offense with struggle and defense,
Speaker 2: and now they become less certain about them moving the ball.
Speaker 1: No, absolutely, And again I check the lines every day
Speaker 1: just to see where it was, and again it was
Speaker 1: forty eight either yesterday or maybe two days ago, and
Speaker 1: it's down to forty seven and a half. So I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be completely surprised to see if drop half a
Speaker 1: point further, as probably more money comes in, We're gonna
Speaker 1: get into some of the more interesting lines here in
Speaker 1: a second, including the Chiefs that the Jaguars and the
Speaker 1: Patriots and the Steelers. But first I do want to
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler. All right, let's move to the Chiefs and
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. Here the Chiefs are laying three and a
Speaker 1: half and the over under is at fifty two. Then
Speaker 1: the Chiefs actually opened at minus five with a fifty
Speaker 1: two and a half over under. So what are your
Speaker 1: thoughts there on those?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean lots of unpack here because you got
Speaker 2: Andy Reid, who historically has done pretty well on opening day,
Speaker 2: and he's going up against a quarterback that he knows
Speaker 2: with Nick Foles. They just saidden Mishawe McCoy. It's interesting.
Speaker 2: So you said it open at five and now it's
Speaker 2: three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and again these are months ago when
Speaker 1: it first up, but when it first came out. Yeah,
Speaker 1: was that minus five when it first came on the board.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's it. I mean that's interesting too, because yeah,
Speaker 2: I would think it could even be you could probably
Speaker 2: get away making it a little higher. So the fact
Speaker 2: that it's three and a half, even though you're talking
Speaker 2: road favorite, you know, it's the travel isn't as bad
Speaker 2: Week one because they're not coming off another game.
Speaker 1: I mean, it might be some of it. Of course,
Speaker 1: they struggled a little bit against the Jaguars last year.
Speaker 1: You know that was Mahomes's worst game as a pro.
Speaker 1: I mean part of it could be that. For me,
Speaker 1: it's the total be over under at fifty two. I
Speaker 1: mean I get it.
Speaker 2: The Chiefs, you.
Speaker 1: Never know they can, you know, put up a four
Speaker 1: spot with ease, but it's the second highest total of
Speaker 1: the week. It felt me more like a like a
Speaker 1: fifty one or fifty one and a half, just because
Speaker 1: you know, the Jaguars have a strong defense. The Chiefs
Speaker 1: have improved someone on defense. You know, the Jaguars are home,
Speaker 1: it's gonna it strikes me as a close game. I
Speaker 1: just you know, I thought that the over under struck
Speaker 1: me as a little high.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Chiefs have brought in new guys on defense.
Speaker 2: You know, you got Tyron Matthew, the Honey Badger, you
Speaker 2: got Frank Clark helping out with the pass rush. And
Speaker 2: the Jaguars have seemingly again they're they're making it clear
Speaker 2: that they're going to try and get Fournette back to
Speaker 2: back to form, and I think they'll be running the
Speaker 2: ball more, doing some rpo stuff, which is I think
Speaker 2: the Jaguars formula for victory in this game and in
Speaker 2: general is ball control and good defense. And that's usually
Speaker 2: something that would shade the under rather than the over.
Speaker 1: Right. That that's really what struck out to me. I mean, again,
Speaker 1: not not crazy, but it struck me as fifty two
Speaker 1: seems a little high given what I think the game
Speaker 1: is likely to unfold as All right, let's move to
Speaker 1: the Packers at the Bears. The Bears here are laying
Speaker 1: three points. The over under is at forty six and
Speaker 1: a half. Now, this has not moved from when this
Speaker 1: first came out months ago. It opened up with the
Speaker 1: Bears laying three and a half and the over under
Speaker 1: at forty six, So very very minimal movement here. What
Speaker 1: are your thoughts?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this again probably makes sense as far
Speaker 2: as the spread. You know Division games early on, it
Speaker 2: makes sense to be three and a half the total.
Speaker 2: The total again, yeah, forty six and a half. You're
Speaker 2: dealing with a couple new variables with this Packers offense. Again,
Speaker 2: they they seemingly haven't shown much with the floor. The
Speaker 2: dynamic between Rogers and Lafleur is interesting, and the Bears
Speaker 2: don't have vic fans here anymore. So I think I
Speaker 2: think there's a chance, especially Packers first half. I think
Speaker 2: the Packers are really going to have a chance to
Speaker 2: put up some points just because you know they're gonna
Speaker 2: come in with that Lafleur offense. That there's no tape on,
Speaker 2: and instead of going up against Vic Fangio, they're going
Speaker 2: up against Chuck Pagano, which is definitely a step down
Speaker 2: in my mind as far as the coordinator.
Speaker 1: Yeah, without question. But you know, the other on the
Speaker 1: other side of the coin, the Packers defense is greatly
Speaker 1: improved too, right. I mean they added a lot of
Speaker 1: pieces there last year when they played twice when the
Speaker 1: Bears were at home, the Bears won twenty four to seventeen.
Speaker 1: So you know, for me again, you know, I feel
Speaker 1: like I've been talking much more about the over unders
Speaker 1: generally with these things. But again, I kind of expected
Speaker 1: the over under to be more like forty five and
Speaker 1: a half or somewhere like that because but you raise
Speaker 1: a good point with Fangio. So it's possible the Bears
Speaker 1: defense takes a little step back here and we don't
Speaker 1: know exactly what the Packers' offense is going to look for. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so I think it's fair to me, you know, when
Speaker 1: it stuck out, this is where it's going to end up.
Speaker 1: By the way, I mean, the Bears are going to
Speaker 1: be laying at game time. The Bears are going to
Speaker 1: be laying three, and the over under is going to
Speaker 1: be at forty six and a half. I can almost
Speaker 1: guarantee you which is fine, and it's around there, but
Speaker 1: I kind of thought it might be more at forty
Speaker 1: five and a half forty.
Speaker 2: Six I could. I see where you're come up with that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's move on to the Ravens at
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. Now the Ravens are laying seven and the
Speaker 1: over under is at a ridiculously low thirty seven and
Speaker 1: a half. Now, this opened up with a thirty seven
Speaker 1: over under, but the Ravens were actually laying three and
Speaker 1: a half when this first opened up. And I look
Speaker 1: the other day and the Ravens were laying six and
Speaker 1: a half. It has now moved to seven. There are
Speaker 1: a ton of changes recently for the Dolphins. So what
Speaker 1: are your thoughts? Do you think that this is a
Speaker 1: where the lines are going to end up at seven
Speaker 1: and thirty seven and a half or what?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think what will happen is it'll
Speaker 2: it'll stay at seven just because the anti dolphin sentiment
Speaker 2: from the betting public is so strong. I think it
Speaker 2: could even go up to if it goes anywhere, I
Speaker 2: think it could go to seven and a half.
Speaker 1: One hundred. That's where I think it ends up. Seven
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where I see it closing. Ass I'd really
Speaker 2: be shocked if the underclose, if the total closes this low.
Speaker 2: But again that's just based on the anti Dolphin sentiment.
Speaker 2: And yeah, so the trends or stuff I'm looking at
Speaker 2: when I'm handicapping this game home Dogs, historically, there's a
Speaker 2: bunch of value there. Again, the Dolphins were one of
Speaker 2: those Florida home teams, so that's something I'm factoring in
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson on the road. But the Dolphins they just
Speaker 2: got rid of their left tackle, So that's that's the
Speaker 2: other side. That's the other side of the handicap. And
Speaker 2: you know, Fitsmagic, who from what I've read, is going
Speaker 2: to be starting. He's he's a guy, he's a guy
Speaker 2: that you can tell him you're taking. But this guy,
Speaker 2: especially early on or a couple of games, he's going
Speaker 2: to be scrappy. The problem is this, This Ravens defense
Speaker 2: is really strong. Earl Thomas seems to be kind of
Speaker 2: in fu mode. I mean literally, the last time he
Speaker 2: was on the field, he's being carted off, giving Pete
Speaker 2: Carroll the finger. So he seems highly motivated. Those are
Speaker 2: kind of the things I'm looking to handicap. But as
Speaker 2: far as where I think it'll close, I didn't think
Speaker 2: the under or sorry the total, the line will close
Speaker 2: higher to seven and a half. And I think if
Speaker 2: you're gonna bet the over, bet it now, because I
Speaker 2: do think it'll go up a couple points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fine. I think the over under,
Speaker 1: I think it'll say roughly around where it is. I
Speaker 1: mean again, if it goes anywhere, maybe have a point.
Speaker 1: But I agree I will be shocked if this ends
Speaker 1: at the Ravens laying seven. At this point, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think it's got to go up. For all the
Speaker 1: reasons you talked about. It's just really difficult to see
Speaker 1: how the Dolphins are going to be able to put
Speaker 1: up any points whatsoever in this game. Steelers at the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Pats are laying five and a half. The over under
Speaker 1: is at fifty and a half. This opened at the
Speaker 1: Pats laying six and the over under at fifty one
Speaker 1: and a half, so they're not too much movement here.
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on this one?
Speaker 2: Let's see. Yeah, it's interesting the Patriots are they're one
Speaker 2: of the teams. You said the Pats, right, Yes, the Pats. Yes, Okay, yeah,
Speaker 2: they're one of these teams that I mean, hey, they're
Speaker 2: the Patriots. They're amazing. But when they have struggled, it
Speaker 2: has been early on, right, you know, September is in
Speaker 2: the rough Mont, the Steelers playing against the Patriots. That's
Speaker 2: always their super Bowl. That's the game they get up for.
Speaker 2: When I'm betting, I usually look at what will happen
Speaker 2: the Steelers a lot of time the game before they
Speaker 2: play the Patriots. They often overlook that game because they're
Speaker 2: so jacked up for the Patriots. The fact that they're
Speaker 2: playing the Patriots the first game that I think actually.
Speaker 3: Is a huge benefit for the Patriots or sorry for
Speaker 3: the Steelers, because they get so jacked up to play
Speaker 3: the Patriots they can't overlook another team and they've you know,
Speaker 3: just basically spent the whole offseason with the Patriots on
Speaker 3: their calendar.
Speaker 2: There. Yeah. Other than that, I guess the number seems
Speaker 2: about rights. I don't know. It'll be interesting to see
Speaker 2: if there's any kind of crazy action one way or
Speaker 2: the other, because it is Sunday night, so there could
Speaker 2: be some line movement as far as people looking to
Speaker 2: catch up from what happened during the day. But and
Speaker 2: let's see the total. Yeah again probably well, no, fifteen
Speaker 2: and a half seems in the ballpark, Steelers have been
Speaker 2: able to show that they can just put up points.
Speaker 2: The real thing that's interesting is Ben Roethlisberger on the road.
Speaker 2: He's had some Sure, he's had some wildly poor performances,
Speaker 2: but then also he's thrown for five thousand yards, so
Speaker 2: he's kind of been a wild card on the road.
Speaker 2: Patriots at home and in Foxborough are just, you know,
Speaker 2: machines when it comes to winning games and covering spreads.
Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be surprised it's five and a half,
Speaker 2: maybe it gets up to six. Stuff usually doesn't close
Speaker 2: a five and a half, so I wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 2: if he gets the six. It's definitely not going to
Speaker 2: get up to a full touchdown, and I don't see
Speaker 2: it getting down to four.
Speaker 1: Yeah. My reaction essentially is a giant shrug emoji. I honestly,
Speaker 1: you know, these teams, they play each other hard. It's
Speaker 1: weird because it's the first game of the season. As
Speaker 1: you said, there's always build up to it. It did
Speaker 1: strike me as roughly fifty, roughly five and a half,
Speaker 1: roughly six. I bet you that's probably where it stays.
Speaker 1: And I feel like, you know, we don't really know
Speaker 1: what these teams are going to look like. I do think,
Speaker 1: you know, the Patriots have a better defense, I think,
Speaker 1: than they've had in a couple of seasons. So I'm
Speaker 1: interested to see, you know, whether that total, if anything,
Speaker 1: maybe drops half a point. But in the end, I
Speaker 1: think it's really tough to gauge.
Speaker 2: And primetime games where there's gonna be more public action,
Speaker 2: especially teams like the Patriots and the Steelers too. I mean, listen,
Speaker 2: there's a reason it's on Sunday night NBC is two
Speaker 2: huge fan bases that will really helped the ratings and
Speaker 2: drive a lot of action. And you know, when the
Speaker 2: public gets involved, they're gonna want to take the over Simply,
Speaker 2: it's simple, simple brain mechanics. It's not fun to root
Speaker 2: for the under. You know, everyone's probably got a bunch
Speaker 2: of their fantasy players, so they're rooting for scoring in action,
Speaker 2: so you know, they're probably gonna be people hitting the
Speaker 2: over all.
Speaker 1: Right, let's move here to what I will call the
Speaker 1: uncertainty zone. Okay, there's a lot of moving parts that
Speaker 1: could have affected the lines, and I want to explore
Speaker 1: that a bit. And let's start with the Bengal at
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. The Seahawks here are laying nine points. The
Speaker 1: over under is set at forty four, and this originally
Speaker 1: opened at the Seahawks lank seven and a half points
Speaker 1: with a forty three and a half over under. So
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that open at seven and a half
Speaker 2: was probably pre aj Green injury. But I do think
Speaker 2: a lot of this is, you know, the Clowny news,
Speaker 2: so possibly it's a it could be a little bit
Speaker 2: of an overreaction, but again, going from seven and a
Speaker 2: half to nine is usually just them kind of protecting
Speaker 2: themselves for teasers. And you got this Bengals team. It's
Speaker 2: a non conference road game in Seattle. Seattle again, super
Speaker 2: tough place to play, pretty solid home field, I mean
Speaker 2: it used to be amazing. It's cooled off as of late,
Speaker 2: so I wouldn't be surprised if this gets a little higher.
Speaker 2: People talk to themselves into the Seahawks and Jadevian Clowney,
Speaker 2: you know, going to town on Andy Dalton and the
Speaker 2: fact that the Bengals don't and have Aj Green. I'm
Speaker 2: really high on Joe Mixon as a running back this year,
Speaker 2: so I think if they can run the ball, maybe
Speaker 2: they'll maybe they'll stay in this game. Forty four sounds
Speaker 2: about right.
Speaker 1: YEP.
Speaker 2: I don't think there's gonna be a much crazy shift
Speaker 2: as far as the total, but yeah, it seems to
Speaker 2: make sense.
Speaker 1: I think the total probably stays where it is. I
Speaker 1: could see it moving to nine and a half just
Speaker 1: because there's some positive news coming out of Seattle. Sounds
Speaker 1: like DK Metcalf might actually play, and they re signed
Speaker 1: Jaron Brown, and I think Cody Glenn is in the
Speaker 1: concussion protocol so he may not play for the Bengals.
Speaker 1: So I think there's a lot of factors here that
Speaker 1: could certainly move the line a little bit more towards
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. So I think probably when all of a
Speaker 1: sudden done, it ends up at nine and a half.
Speaker 1: But I agree with you, I think forty four probably
Speaker 1: sounds like the right number. Let's move on now to
Speaker 1: the Giants at the Cowboys. The Cowboys are laying seven
Speaker 1: points in the over unders at forty five and a half.
Speaker 1: It opened pretty close to that Cowboys minus seven and
Speaker 1: a half. When it first came over, the over under
Speaker 1: was at forty six and a half. Now, we've got
Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty here right as we record, there's
Speaker 1: not quite as much optimism, or now there might be more.
Speaker 1: It's changing by the minute as to whether Zeke signs,
Speaker 1: But even if he signs before week one, it's unclear
Speaker 1: what his workload is going to be. Amari Cooper is
Speaker 1: still a little bit of a question mark. So what
Speaker 1: are your thoughts here on the Cowboys laying seven and
Speaker 1: the over under at forty five and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess this is kind of earlier
Speaker 2: we had talked about Robbie Anderson and would he possibly
Speaker 2: move the line, and you look at Zeke Elliott and
Speaker 2: I mean maybe he moved at half a point, because
Speaker 2: I would be surprised he plays or at least plays
Speaker 2: his normal load at this point, you know, when we're
Speaker 2: recording this. So even Zeke Elliott, who's you know, a
Speaker 2: huge part of the Cowboys offense, he only maybe moved
Speaker 2: it a half. You could certainly make a case for
Speaker 2: the fact that the Giants offensive line look better in preseason,
Speaker 2: and you know slight optimism coming out of Giants camp.
Speaker 2: There's also been a number of you know, the Giants,
Speaker 2: it's got a Golden Tate suspended. Certainly, Shepard broke his thumb,
Speaker 2: although it seems like he's close to one hundred percent.
Speaker 2: Their offensive line seems a little stronger. You know. The
Speaker 2: interesting thing here is again division game. That's a big number.
Speaker 2: But you know, the betting public is pretty down on
Speaker 2: Eli Manning as a quarterback, and rightfully so. So that's
Speaker 2: if that's who the Giants are going to try it
Speaker 2: out as a starter. I think plus seven makes sense.
Speaker 2: It's certainly is not gonna go below seven. If it's
Speaker 2: gonna go anywhere, it'll go up to seven and a half,
Speaker 2: maybe eight. You know, if Zeke plays, maybe they'll bump
Speaker 2: it up to eight. But yeah, and the Mary Cooper thing,
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people are talking about Zeke,
Speaker 2: whether he plays or not, as we're doing here. But
Speaker 2: I think if you if you look at the Cowboys offense,
Speaker 2: what really impacts him more has been a Mary Cooper
Speaker 2: playing or not playing. At least if you look at
Speaker 2: the numbers last year, he seemed to have a bigger impact.
Speaker 2: Interestingly enough, on the offense. If you compare it to
Speaker 2: when Zeke has missed time the previous year and Planner
Speaker 2: fasciitis is a that's a red flag injury because a
Speaker 2: lot of times what happens is a guy thinks he
Speaker 2: can play, or he does try and play, and he's
Speaker 2: just he's like sixty percent or like they It's an
Speaker 2: injury where a lot of guys try and play through
Speaker 2: it but are just very they're just have no bursts.
Speaker 2: And that's what you could really get in trouble if
Speaker 2: you're talking about handicapping the game or setting a fantasy lineup,
Speaker 2: because yeah, they'll be listed as probable or questionable and
Speaker 2: then you see they're out there and you're like, oh,
Speaker 2: it must be all right. But that that's a tricky,
Speaker 2: lingering injury and definitely something to keep an eye.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and his history with it is not great. When
Speaker 1: he's dealt with issues around that area, he has not
Speaker 1: played all that well. So out of curiosity, if it
Speaker 1: comes out that Cooper is going to miss the game,
Speaker 1: used to you don't think it drops the line below
Speaker 1: seven though?
Speaker 2: Right? No, that's the thing. I yeah, I don't think
Speaker 2: it'll move it a line, but I definitely think it
Speaker 2: should impact how you see the game going because I
Speaker 2: think if Zeke's out and Cooper's out, they're really gonna
Speaker 2: be in trouble as far as skill positions and and
Speaker 2: Cole Beasley was kind of his safety blanket. He doesn't
Speaker 2: have him there.
Speaker 1: But the Cowboys got Jason Witten back, baby, Yeah, don't
Speaker 1: worry about it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a Jerry Jones didn't want the Cowboys
Speaker 2: brand being tarnished every Monday night by here and Jason
Speaker 2: witting on the broadcast.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly right. It's not a bad move. I
Speaker 1: like his strategy.
Speaker 2: Hey, you know, protect the brand. That really seems like
Speaker 2: you just bailed him out.
Speaker 1: But well, good for him. At least hopefully he can
Speaker 1: at least contribute.
Speaker 2: I wish my boss was as generous as Jerry Jones.
Speaker 1: Well, I hope your boss isn't listening to this, all right?
Speaker 1: Rams at the Panthers rams laying three. The over under
Speaker 1: is at fifty. It started at the rams lank two
Speaker 1: and a half and an over under fifty one. Not
Speaker 1: too much movement here. We've got Cam Newton's injury. It
Speaker 1: looks like he's going to be good to go. But
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And again the line makes sense because it's
Speaker 2: a West Coast team going to the East Coast. People
Speaker 2: have talked themselves into the Panthers once again. I'm really
Speaker 2: worried about Cam Newton. Like you watch Cam Newton before
Speaker 2: they shut him down last year. That shoulder, it just
Speaker 2: doesn't look right, and he like completely had to redo
Speaker 2: his throwing motion. And he listened to Ron Rivera and
Speaker 2: they're talking about how they're just gonna have to manage
Speaker 2: him throughout the season and that's just his shoulder, and
Speaker 2: then he had this weird foot sprain. I think he's
Speaker 2: got a lot of stuff to work through. On the
Speaker 2: other side, if you look at this Rams team, there
Speaker 2: is something if you lose the Super Bowl that next
Speaker 2: season is really tough. And you look at the trend
Speaker 2: of teams coming off a Super Bowl loss, their ats
Speaker 2: is not good. I don't but I think the public
Speaker 2: is kind of high on both these team so but
Speaker 2: obviously higher on the on the Rams. And that's why
Speaker 2: the spread is minus three for a road favorite. I
Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna be shifted one way or the other.
Speaker 2: The only thing that could shift it is if somehow
Speaker 2: Cam Newton is a late scratch.
Speaker 1: What happens? Out of curiosity to the line, do you
Speaker 1: think if Newton is scratched?
Speaker 2: I think it would go up to like six and
Speaker 2: a half or seven, Okay, I mean the thing is,
Speaker 2: which would be great for me because I like Will Greer.
Speaker 2: You know, obviously that's a tough first start for you,
Speaker 2: showing up against the Rams, but seven points is huge.
Speaker 2: But starting quarterbacks are really something that they'll automatically jump
Speaker 2: into the next key number.
Speaker 1: I feel like gotcham All right, let's move on to
Speaker 1: the Texans at the Saints. The Saints here are laying seven.
Speaker 1: The over under is at fifty three and a half.
Speaker 1: This is pretty interesting because you were we've been talking
Speaker 1: about tackles, of course, but you've got essentially an offense
Speaker 1: that has entirely remade their team a little bit over
Speaker 1: the last few days. They lost. The Texans lost Lamar
Speaker 1: Miller and j Davian Clowney. They've added Laramie Tunsel and
Speaker 1: Duke Johnson and Kenny Stilson. Yet everything has stayed almost
Speaker 1: exactly where it is. It opened at seven and a half,
Speaker 1: so it's moved only half a point. With the Saints
Speaker 1: now laying seven and the total has not moved at all.
Speaker 1: It opened at fifty three and a half. That is
Speaker 1: the highest of the week. So what's your reaction here
Speaker 1: to these lines?
Speaker 2: I what I opened up the week one lines and
Speaker 2: I hadn't been tracking this line, you know, the entire
Speaker 2: summer or whatever. I was shocked. This was the most
Speaker 2: surprising line. Honestly thought this was gonna be like three
Speaker 2: and a half four.
Speaker 1: You see why I kept it for our last right,
Speaker 1: you see why it ranks so low on the boring meter.
Speaker 2: No, and I think it'll be I think it'll be
Speaker 2: an exciting game. And just man, last season when the
Speaker 2: Saints lost outright to the Tampa Bay Bucks, I go,
Speaker 2: what the hell? And then you look back at their
Speaker 2: history and they've under Sean Payton, They've been horrible opening
Speaker 2: day and just early on in September. I don't know.
Speaker 2: They suffer from the same thing that the Patriots do,
Speaker 2: and this to me is shocking. The Texans come in
Speaker 2: highly motivated. Bill O'Brien is just saying, yeah, he's like
Speaker 2: he's like the drug friend, just you know, doing whatever
Speaker 2: it takes at the end of the night to talk
Speaker 2: to talk to a girl or whatever, because he is
Speaker 2: just clearly desperate. And I think that's I think that's
Speaker 2: it's just way too high. Like the Texans have a
Speaker 2: competent team. Larry By Tunsel. I don't know if he's
Speaker 2: still gonna start week one or whatever, but I mean
Speaker 2: they were eleven and five last year, like they're not
Speaker 2: They're not a tray, you know, they should be getting
Speaker 2: more respect from the line. I was really shocked.
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. And I when I looked at
Speaker 1: all the lines that are available, I expected to see,
Speaker 1: all right, somebody's got to at least be it, you know,
Speaker 1: minus six or something like that. So not now they
Speaker 1: are in locks that it is all the Saints lank
Speaker 1: seven across the board, and I completely agree. I tried
Speaker 1: to look at it now. I knew what it was originally,
Speaker 1: but I kind of put that in the back of
Speaker 1: my mind and I looked, yeah, this is more like
Speaker 1: the Saints lane forward, you know, some somewhere around there
Speaker 1: four and a half something, three and a half four. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's not moving though, I mean it hasn't moved at all,
Speaker 1: So this is I mean, it's gonna be.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Drew Brees the second half. You know, after he
Speaker 2: took that crazy shot on Thanksgiving, he his numbers really dropped.
Speaker 2: I mean, he got rocked on that play and he
Speaker 2: was way more hesitant pushing the ball downfield. And perhaps
Speaker 2: we're kind of seeing him on the downward slide at
Speaker 2: the edge of his career. And Shaun Watson, by all
Speaker 2: accounts fully healthy. You know, he hasn't. He had the
Speaker 2: whole offseason to really get right physically. They brought in
Speaker 2: Duke Johnson, and it just Bill O'Brien is just, you know,
Speaker 2: coaching with some urgency and.
Speaker 1: Just yeah, he's going for it doing whatever.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be if I'm a Texans fan, I'm seriously
Speaker 2: worried about their long term prospects.
Speaker 1: But you just got to block all that out, man. Yeah,
Speaker 1: just push all your chips in for this year.
Speaker 2: If you're a Texans fan, all I can say is
Speaker 2: enjoy this season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hope it goes. Let's hope it goes better
Speaker 1: than than what your next several years and the draft
Speaker 1: is going to look like. So all right, let's finish
Speaker 1: up here with what I felt like was the most
Speaker 1: interesting game just because of Andrew Luck and everything that happened,
Speaker 1: and that's the Colts at the Chargers. The Chargers are
Speaker 1: currently laying six and a half and the over unders
Speaker 1: had forty five. So, you know, originally when Luck was,
Speaker 1: you know, they thought Luck was healthier, even with some
Speaker 1: of the question marks, the Chargers were laying three and
Speaker 1: a half and it was a forty eight point total.
Speaker 1: Now when the Luck news broke, this initially moved the
Speaker 1: line from three and a half to the Chargers laying
Speaker 1: seven and a half. But it's gone down at this
Speaker 1: point to six and a half. I mean, is this
Speaker 1: just sort of is this money coming in? Is it
Speaker 1: anything to do with the Melvin Gordon situation? What do
Speaker 1: you think it is? And at the line at six
Speaker 1: and a half, what are your thoughts on that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is this is the most interesting game,
Speaker 2: right and I think they've probably found the right number.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't. I think I could get to an even seven.
Speaker 2: It's a it's a weird line history because it almost
Speaker 2: seemed like too much of a reaction when Luck was
Speaker 2: out because Jacoby Brissett was in the system. He's gotten
Speaker 2: a bunch of reps. They have a solid team around him.
Speaker 2: The Chargers have no home field advantage. Again, they're also
Speaker 2: missing their left tackle, so that should be a concern
Speaker 2: and something to factor in. You know, the Chargers always
Speaker 2: deal with these random injuries. The Chargers haven't looked great
Speaker 2: opening day as well. They've gotten off the slow starts.
Speaker 2: The Colts are really well coached. Frank Wright, he's just
Speaker 2: a solid coach. I think the Colts in a weird way.
Speaker 2: If I was just you know, looking at the emotional
Speaker 2: handicapping of this game, the Colts I do think rally
Speaker 2: around and this is kind of like, hey, win one
Speaker 2: for us, show people we're more than Andrew Luck, Like,
Speaker 2: it feels like they're coming in with something to prove.
Speaker 2: I think seven is probably I think where it would
Speaker 2: close eventually, because once the public gets involved in this
Speaker 2: game and does the mat that you know, Andrew Lux
Speaker 2: not the coach or sorry, not the quarterback anymore, or
Speaker 2: the coach. Maybe he'll one day we've got a coach
Speaker 2: through his backpacking the adventures are done. As far as
Speaker 2: the total, yes, forty five. Yes, it's kind of right
Speaker 2: in the middle. I think they're and you look around,
Speaker 2: this is probably one of the one of the bigger
Speaker 2: totals that has discrepancies, Like I'm over at betting pros
Speaker 2: and I'm seeing forty seven and a half to forty
Speaker 2: four and a half or even forty three and a half,
Speaker 2: but you're paying a little juice on that minus when thirty.
Speaker 2: So I think they're throwing this total out to kind
Speaker 2: of see where the market goes, because I don't think
Speaker 2: the the people said in the lines have a great
Speaker 2: idea as to how this colts. Offense is gonna look
Speaker 2: a lot of uncertainty, So I would think this is
Speaker 2: kind of at forty five. I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 2: it if it goes down rather.
Speaker 1: Than yeah, to me, I think this is roughly where
Speaker 1: it's gonna end up. I would think that the line
Speaker 1: line the spread is probably going to be at seven
Speaker 1: when all things are sent in. And again same thing
Speaker 1: with you over under with the spread. You can get
Speaker 1: it at plus seven at certain places, you can get
Speaker 1: it at plus six at some places. I mean, I mean,
Speaker 1: I know what to do.
Speaker 2: I saw like when the luck news happened, I saw
Speaker 2: as high as nine and a half some places, So
Speaker 2: I mean that's crazy just comparing a nine and a
Speaker 2: half point spread to a six and a half point spread,
Speaker 2: when in between there no news has occurred. I think
Speaker 2: they're really struggling if I'm looking for this number. Yeah,
Speaker 2: if I was running a sportsbook, I would say it
Speaker 2: at seven and just walk away.
Speaker 1: I completely agree. I think of all the numbers, this
Speaker 1: is the one that I can see changing probably the most.
Speaker 1: I mean, I could see it. I think it's probably
Speaker 1: going to end up at seven, and I think it'll
Speaker 1: stick at forty five, but I could see it moving more,
Speaker 1: just because it really feels throughout this entire thing like
Speaker 1: they don't really know how to get a handle of it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they're I think they're letting the volume
Speaker 2: really dictate this one. Sometimes they'll, you know, they'll they
Speaker 2: won't be afraid to take a position or a side
Speaker 2: or based on seeing, you know, where the money's coming
Speaker 2: in really kind of way in. But this one, I
Speaker 2: think they're kind of just leaving it out there for
Speaker 2: the public to figure out. Yep.
Speaker 1: That's why it was the most interesting lines, my friend,
Speaker 1: That's why I said it that. Thanks man, All right,
Speaker 1: Well that's going to do it for today's show. Sean.
Speaker 1: It was really great having you on. I really hope
Speaker 1: we can do it again during the season.
Speaker 2: Awesome man, Yeah, drop me a line and you don't
Speaker 2: have to twist my arm to talk about NFL gameless.
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Speaker 1: been listening to this podcast regularly, you know that we
Speaker 1: had an August contest where we were giving away an
Speaker 1: autographed Christian McCaffrey helmet. I am going to randomly select
Speaker 1: a winner and I will announce it on our next show.
Speaker 1: And if that winner is not you don't get down.
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Speaker 1: back later this week giving some of our best bets
Speaker 1: for Week one. Until then, enjoy your last few days
Speaker 1: without football.