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Speaker 1: Get in touch with technology with tech Stuff from how

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Speaker 1: stuff works dot com. Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Jonathan Strickland, and we are now

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Speaker 1: going to do my second favorite episode of any given year,

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Speaker 1: the follow up from the previous year's predictions. As many

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Speaker 1: of my long time listeners know, like many other tech podcasts,

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Speaker 1: I take it upon myself to usually grab a hapless

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Speaker 1: guest to join me in the studio and make predictions

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Speaker 1: about what will happen over the following twelve months. That

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Speaker 1: is my quote unquote favorite episode of the year, and

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Speaker 1: my second favorite is when we revisited a year later

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Speaker 1: and see how he did. So. Last year I had

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Speaker 1: I as actar joined me on the show, and this

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Speaker 1: year for the results, I have I as actar on

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Speaker 1: one of the show. Hey, heyes, how are you. I'm good.

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Speaker 1: I'm hoping I'm less hapless than last year. Yeah, I know.

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Speaker 1: I think we both got happed a couple of times

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Speaker 1: throughout that year, so we'll handle it. We were not

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Speaker 1: not quite too happy, but we're working toward it. Right.

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Speaker 1: That's some good feedbacks. Almost haptic, Yes, it is almost haptic. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you can really sense it. So what we're you gonna

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Speaker 1: do today is we're gonna go through the predictions we

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Speaker 1: made last year. We've both gone back and listened to

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Speaker 1: that episode, written down some notes, kind of evaluated how

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Speaker 1: far or close we were when you know, when reality unfolded.

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Speaker 1: Did we get it right, were we wrong? Somewhere in between,

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Speaker 1: and it kind of spans the whole spectrum. So one

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Speaker 1: of the things I said at the very beginning of

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Speaker 1: last year's episode was that I was determined to make

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Speaker 1: bolder predictions because I had discovered that it didn't matter

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Speaker 1: if I made more modest predictions. My accuracy was still

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Speaker 1: pretty awful. So if you're gonna make awful predictions, at

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Speaker 1: least make big awful predictions right that no one's impressed

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Speaker 1: if you make a modest prediction and that's wrong, it's

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Speaker 1: just that's that's kind of boring. So the first one

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Speaker 1: I made was that in twenty sixteen, the year that

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Speaker 1: is now coming to a close, Microsoft would buy Yahoo's

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Speaker 1: core business. And I, as you, actually had a slightly

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Speaker 1: different take on it. You thought that perhaps there'd be

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Speaker 1: some wireless carrier, or maybe um Apple or possibly Facebook

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Speaker 1: buying Yah whose core business. As it turns out the

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Speaker 1: wireless carrier was the best of the predictions because, as

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Speaker 1: we know, Microsoft didn't buy all whose core business, nor

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Speaker 1: Apple nor Facebook. Instead, it was Verizon only four point

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Speaker 1: eight three billion dollars on the deal. Now, I know

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Speaker 1: that the right after the news of that can that

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Speaker 1: news of the Yahoo hack that I don't know how

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Speaker 1: many was like half a billion people or accounts were compromised,

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Speaker 1: something crazy, you like that. Yeah, Verizon is kind of

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Speaker 1: cautiously going forward. I've read recently that the head of

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Speaker 1: a O L. Sorry sorry, well YEAHOO was concerned that

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Speaker 1: this will go cautiously optimistically. Let's use as many adverbs

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Speaker 1: as we possibly can. Now, Verizon did acquire A O

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Speaker 1: L in twenty fIF so Verizon has been kind of

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Speaker 1: on a tear recently. UM and a lot of people

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Speaker 1: are kind of curious to see what happens with whose

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Speaker 1: core business going on in the future. And I'm pretty

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Speaker 1: sure at this point I'm gonna have to do a

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Speaker 1: full episode about Verizon. UM. And then we came to

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Speaker 1: I ass first prediction, Oh yeah, that three D printers

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Speaker 1: would go much more mainstream, and the idea was there's

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Speaker 1: a lot more three D scanning technology there was a

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Speaker 1: bunch of the phones out there now that have like

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Speaker 1: three D scanning. But Jonathan, you disagree with me on

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Speaker 1: three D printing going mainstream, and not because the de potential,

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Speaker 1: because the technology just wasn't ready yet, right, Yeah, it

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Speaker 1: just was. It was still at level where unless you

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Speaker 1: have a lot of patients and uh you don't mind

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Speaker 1: babysitting the technology for quite some time, you're not likely

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Speaker 1: to have very, um, very satisfying results. It's it's very

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Speaker 1: easy to create a bad three D print job, right,

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Speaker 1: So take take like the most finicky printer you've ever

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Speaker 1: had any experience with, and then imagine that it has

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Speaker 1: to print in three dimensions, not just in two, and

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Speaker 1: you realize, yeah, this is, um this is a recipe

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Speaker 1: for potential disaster. And in fact, that's kind of how

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Speaker 1: I've that's been my experience with three D printers. So

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Speaker 1: we wanted to take a look like, did three D

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Speaker 1: printers really take off in steen did they become or

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Speaker 1: at least did we see you know, a good solid

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Speaker 1: improvement in in market adoption? Um and and really it

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Speaker 1: just kind of it did continue to grow. It's not

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Speaker 1: like it's not like it stopped growing. It didn't the

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Speaker 1: rate of growth didn't increase, but it's still chugging along

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Speaker 1: pretty healthily. So, UM, I guess it's a partial one

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Speaker 1: for you. I as I think, I mean more mainstream

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean that it's doing well, but i'd say very

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Speaker 1: small partial here. I'm not gonna even give myself a

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Speaker 1: lot of credit for this one. It's doing better than

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Speaker 1: it was at the beginning of the year and the

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Speaker 1: compared to the beginning of the year, but it's still

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Speaker 1: still not mainstream by any stretching the imagination. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: in fact, later on in the episode you did clarify

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Speaker 1: you said that you weren't really thinking about it being

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Speaker 1: a three D printer on everybody's desk by the end

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Speaker 1: of twenty six. You were saying that you expected to

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Speaker 1: see that trend continue, and uh, and in fact, that's

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Speaker 1: exactly what has happened. There's no dramatic changes. It's not like,

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Speaker 1: as far as I know, I didn't hear about any

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Speaker 1: massive drive to buy a bunch of three D printers

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Speaker 1: during the holiday sales, for example. UM, I think in

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Speaker 1: large part it's one of those things that people who

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Speaker 1: are interested in the field are still going out and

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Speaker 1: you know, looking at the different models that are out

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Speaker 1: there and trying to decide which one is best for them.

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Speaker 1: It has not really penetrated your average consumer's mind as

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Speaker 1: this is um must have item. But I think I

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Speaker 1: think you were more right than wrong. My next prediction

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Speaker 1: was that Apple, now that we're getting further and further

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Speaker 1: removed from Steve Jobs as Apple company, that Apple was

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Speaker 1: going to start offering up more products that would seem

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Speaker 1: like they were not as directly influenced by Steve Jobs.

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Speaker 1: I realized now in retrospect that that is an incredibly

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Speaker 1: difficult prediction to to judge whether or not I was right,

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Speaker 1: because without knowing, without having Steve Jobs here to say, hey,

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Speaker 1: would you do that, it's it's kind of um impossible

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Speaker 1: to answer unless you just see something that just looks

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Speaker 1: like welcome to the Apple cinder block, Like then you say, okay, no,

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Speaker 1: that Steve Jobs would not come out with a cinder block,

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Speaker 1: And I don't know about that one. Maybe the only

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Speaker 1: the only thing for sure we could tell if there

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Speaker 1: was no h clones, you know, mac clones out there,

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Speaker 1: that's definitely something that was anti Jobs at the time.

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Speaker 1: When we came back to Apple, he killed that off. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, without looking backwards, I don't know how we

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Speaker 1: would ever tell, but I'm pretty sure we have a

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Speaker 1: decent catalog of things that Apple could have done that

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Speaker 1: Steve Jobs didn't like. Yeah, I mean in the last

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Speaker 1: year episode we mentioned the pencil stylist device that had

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Speaker 1: been introduced in in late and how that was something

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Speaker 1: that that Steve Jobs had kind of ridiculed at one

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Speaker 1: point back when a stylus was the only way to

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Speaker 1: interact with some handheld devices, and he said, no, one

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Speaker 1: wants that, and I, as you pointed out, well, the

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Speaker 1: Apple solution is that it's it's a an additional peripheral.

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Speaker 1: It's not necessary to interact with the device, but it's

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Speaker 1: an additional way to interact with the device, which is

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Speaker 1: a slight distinction. UM. Not sure how Steve Jobs would

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Speaker 1: have felt about abandoning the lightning ports on MacBook pros

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Speaker 1: where they switched from Lightning to USBC or the idea.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure he would have been down with the

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Speaker 1: idea of getting rid of the headphone jack. I don't

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Speaker 1: see Steve Jobs as saying no, that's something we absolutely

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Speaker 1: have to keep. Um. I think for the that that's

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Speaker 1: referring to the iPhone. The new iPhones don't have the

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Speaker 1: headphone jacks, they just have the lightning connector. It does

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Speaker 1: make it weird if you have a MacBook Pro and

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Speaker 1: an iPhone that you can't use a simple cable between

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Speaker 1: the two to charge your iPhone while your MacBook Pro

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Speaker 1: is running. But um, I don't think I don't think

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Speaker 1: any of those were big warning flags, saying Steve Jobs

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Speaker 1: would absolutely not want this to happen, but potentially save

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Speaker 1: you hundreds and thousands of emails. And you said Apple

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Speaker 1: moving away from lightning to USBC, did you mean the

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Speaker 1: Thunderbolt ports. That's why I meant Thunderbolt pot. Yeah. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: because Thunderbolt is built into the new versions of these

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Speaker 1: USBC style receptacles. It's such a weird thing that's actually

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Speaker 1: in the MacBook Pro right now that I don't really

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Speaker 1: have a great way to explain, and maybe you could.

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Speaker 1: It's like it's a Thunderbolt enabled USB sorry, Thunderbolt three

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Speaker 1: enabled us B C input. It's a very strange name. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think moving towards standard things is within the realm

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Speaker 1: of Jobs. The idea of simply going, okay, this is

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Speaker 1: the future we don't care. We're making were drawing in

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Speaker 1: the line right now. I think it looks a lot

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Speaker 1: like the way the MacBook Air was set up in

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Speaker 1: the first place, with its original one USB port that

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Speaker 1: grew a little bit. Same thing with the MacBook pros

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Speaker 1: um the headphone jack removal. Yeah, I would I could

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Speaker 1: believe that happening. Maybe, although Jobs really did like music,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if he would want you to listen

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Speaker 1: to bluetooth headphones, be honest. Yeah, I mean it's a

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Speaker 1: good point. I mean, well, the fact that you're already

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Speaker 1: listening on an Apple device and you're likely listening to

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Speaker 1: some form of compressed music. I think you could be

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Speaker 1: listening to uncompressed music files, but I don't know. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's it does seem like it would be another step

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Speaker 1: further away from that that that experience that truly defined

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Speaker 1: the or redefined Apple. I mean, the iPod, I would argue,

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Speaker 1: was the product that brought Apple truly to the forefront

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Speaker 1: of the technology world again, and the iPhones cemented their

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Speaker 1: place once once it came out that uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: when Steve Jobs came back to the company and he

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Speaker 1: began to revitalize the Mac platform uh, the iPod was

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Speaker 1: really the device that kind of got the tech world's

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Speaker 1: attention and said, oh wow, Apple's doing stuff again. Uh.

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Speaker 1: So to to make that step where you are saying, oh,

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Speaker 1: you know, bluetooth headphones are fine, that does seem a

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Speaker 1: little weird. But I can't really say this is a

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Speaker 1: win or a loss. And it's largely because again at

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Speaker 1: the very beginning, as I said, it's hard to judge

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Speaker 1: how well I did without having the authority there too

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Speaker 1: a d so that in retrospect it was a bad

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Speaker 1: prediction just because there's it's hard to judge if it

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Speaker 1: was correct or not unless again, there was something that

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Speaker 1: was just wildly elt of character for Apple. I predict

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Speaker 1: you will not be making predictions like that for your

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Speaker 1: next show. I certainly hope I won't. Alright, So my

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Speaker 1: my nex prediction was about wearables. Wearables will be better

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Speaker 1: with follow ups to the earlier smart watches, and Activity

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Speaker 1: Tracker was supposed to be the year we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: refined approaches. And I'm laughing at reading my own note

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Speaker 1: here there will be a compelling reason to own a

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Speaker 1: smart watch. Um. Reality, No, that didn't happen. There's currently

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Speaker 1: no true compelling reason that anyone needs a smart watches.

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Speaker 1: That's my own opinion. I saw a report on the

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Speaker 1: day of recording. List I d C just released a

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Speaker 1: wearables market report and they said basic wearables, primarily composed

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Speaker 1: of fitness bands, accounted for of the market and experience.

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Speaker 1: It's double digit growth now, by the way, year over

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Speaker 1: year growth the third quarter between compared to three point

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Speaker 1: one percent, So not a huge growth in the wearables

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Speaker 1: which includes smart watches and and uh fitness devices. So

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Speaker 1: Google basically sat out when it came to Android where

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Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, we're gonna show a new one. Here

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Speaker 1: it is, and we're gonna release it. Seen, they backed

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Speaker 1: off very hard. Apple basically said we screwed up. They

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Speaker 1: redefine their their watch with Watch OS three. It's it's

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Speaker 1: really not even close. Um, I don't see smart watches everywhere.

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Speaker 1: Do you see smart watches everywhere where you are? Uh? No,

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Speaker 1: I do not. I mean I'm wearing a pebble right now.

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Speaker 1: But some people would argue that pebble doesn't really like

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Speaker 1: some some would say pebble almost doesn't fit the definition

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Speaker 1: of a smart watch because it has limited interactive abilities

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Speaker 1: and you know, you've got the monochromatic screen. And but

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Speaker 1: that's all I want it because it gives me notifications

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Speaker 1: and I don't ignore of them. I don't or I

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Speaker 1: don't miss them. Uh So specifically when someone's calling me,

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Speaker 1: I don't miss those calls anymore because when I'm walking

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Speaker 1: I walked to and from home and work, when I'm

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Speaker 1: walking off, and don't feel my phone vibrating if someone

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Speaker 1: calls me, but I feel my risk vibrating. So that's

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Speaker 1: you know, that's why I have one. But that's the

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Speaker 1: that's the only compelling reason is really because otherwise I

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Speaker 1: miss phone calls and my wife gets mad at me. Um,

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Speaker 1: my wife hasn't I watch. She's gonna Apple watch, and

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Speaker 1: I mean she likes it just fine. But yeah, I

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Speaker 1: don't see him everywhere. There's like maybe one other person

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Speaker 1: in this office who has one, and that's it. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm not seeing an explosion and adoption right now. Wearables

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Speaker 1: are one of those things where I think the potential

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Speaker 1: is there. No one has created the killer, the killer

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Speaker 1: product that people absolutely must go out and purchase, and

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Speaker 1: so it remains this kind of promised land that no

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Speaker 1: one's been able to tap into. I'm sure as we

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Speaker 1: record this, I as and I are both in our

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Speaker 1: own individual ways preparing for the apocalypse known as c

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Speaker 1: e S, which will take place at the very beginning

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Speaker 1: of January. And we both know wearables will yet again

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Speaker 1: be an enormous story there because it's it's it's an

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Speaker 1: area of potential growth, and whenever those exist within the

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Speaker 1: world of electronics, you're gonna see endless examples of it.

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Speaker 1: On the CEOs show floor. The question is, well, we

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Speaker 1: see one that's so interesting and so different from the

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Speaker 1: other thousands of products that we've already seen that we

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Speaker 1: will be convinced, yes, this is the one that is

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Speaker 1: going to redefine the market. I'm not convinced yet. There's

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Speaker 1: plenty of good products out there, activity trackers and smart watches,

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Speaker 1: but nothing that I would sit there and say like, oh, well,

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Speaker 1: you absolutely have to go out and get one of these. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I don't bold prediction. No, we're not gonna see anything

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Speaker 1: that's going to change the wearables market sees in a

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Um. But I just if Apple couldn't

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Speaker 1: figure it out, and Samsung's they got their great approach

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Speaker 1: where they try everything, they iterate and they iterate, and

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Speaker 1: they iterate. Eventually they get it right. It might be

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Speaker 1: another couple of years. I really thought I thought sixteen

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Speaker 1: was the year because the the the idea was already presented.

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Speaker 1: People were getting used to the idea of having more

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Speaker 1: than one device maybe, and there were major companies behind it,

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Speaker 1: but the execution just wasn't here this year. In I

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Speaker 1: don't see it happening in the next few weeks. Maybe

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Speaker 1: long shot, you know, December twenty six of next year, seventeen,

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Speaker 1: somebody figures it out, but it won't be public until. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I remember I mentioned that if you were to pair

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Speaker 1: wearables with a r you could have some really interesting

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Speaker 1: applications and respect and we'll talk more about VR in

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Speaker 1: just a short moment. But I agree with you. I

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Speaker 1: think I think. I think we're gonna see plenty of examples.

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to be lots of products to

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Speaker 1: choose from. But I don't I don't see any breakaways

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Speaker 1: yet on the horizon. But maybe we'll we'll be proven wrong.

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Speaker 1: We're willing to have that happen. At the point being tway,

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Speaker 1: sixteen definitely wasn't the wearable year. Uh My next prediction

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Speaker 1: was that Apple would make a move to acquire Tesla,

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Speaker 1: although Tesla might not agree to Apple's terms, and the

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Speaker 1: reality is, whoo, maybe we don't know if that happened.

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Speaker 1: We do know that uh, Tesla got shareholder approval to

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Speaker 1: acquire or actually to merge with another company called solar City,

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Speaker 1: which was founded coincidentally not coincidentally by Elon Musk's cousins,

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Speaker 1: and he was the chairman of solar City. Uh So

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Speaker 1: Tesla and solar City are merging together. But uh, we

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Speaker 1: do also know that Apple held some discussions with the

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Speaker 1: executive team over at Tesla. But Musk was very careful

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Speaker 1: to say like he could not comment on what the

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Speaker 1: nature of those conversations was all about, because you know,

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Speaker 1: that's that's confidential stuff. Uh. But a lot of reporters

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Speaker 1: kept on asking does this mean that there have been

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Speaker 1: talks of acquisition between Apple and Tesla? And he says,

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Speaker 1: I even if there were, I couldn't comment on it.

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Speaker 1: So it's useless to ask me those questions. So we

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Speaker 1: don't know if Apple had made a move. It's possible

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Speaker 1: to Apple at least express some interest, but there's no

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Speaker 1: way to confirm that one way or the other um

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Speaker 1: and in the episode, I as you mentioned that there

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Speaker 1: was a possibility that Apple would invest in Tesla, but

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Speaker 1: not try to acquire it, and so, in other words,

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Speaker 1: there would be some sort of corporate investment on Apple's part,

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Speaker 1: perhaps even having some bars of Apple joined the board

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Speaker 1: of directors over at Tesla. But as far as I know,

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Speaker 1: that has not yet happened either. We do know that

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Speaker 1: Apple is definitely interested in developing autonomous car programs. Are

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Speaker 1: very recently apples director of Product Integrity, Steve Kenner, wrote

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Speaker 1: to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to advocate for

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Speaker 1: better rules and regulations specifically for autonomous vehicles, whether that is,

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Speaker 1: you know, to expressly allow autonomous vehicles to be on

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Speaker 1: the road, or to create the infrastructure necessary to have

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Speaker 1: have those rules so that when weird things happen, we

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Speaker 1: actually have law to point to and say, well, this

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Speaker 1: is what we do in this case. But Apple itself

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Speaker 1: as a company has not come out and said what

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Speaker 1: they are planning on doing or what sort of timeline

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Speaker 1: they're looking at. We just know that they're interested in

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Speaker 1: autonomous cars, not when they might pull the trigger and

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Speaker 1: jump into the game. Based on the last things you

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Speaker 1: were talking about if Apple did buy a pre existing

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Speaker 1: car company, that would be a non jobs move back

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Speaker 1: to your other prediction. Uh, if Apple actually announced ahead

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Speaker 1: of time in we're gonna have a self driving car,

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Speaker 1: that would also be not jobs in in that kind

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Speaker 1: of way now that I think about it. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: the the idea that Apple and Tesla were gonna work together,

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Speaker 1: I like that idea. They seem like they're a natural fit.

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Speaker 1: But I've seen enough, I've read enough in the press

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Speaker 1: that seems like there's a bit of animosity between the

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Speaker 1: two companies. Yeah, I know that Elon Musk says some

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Speaker 1: derogatory things about some of the engineers that end up

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Speaker 1: at Apple. They're they're the they're the ones who get

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Speaker 1: rejected from Tesla. So yeah, there's been there's been some

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Speaker 1: like sniping back and forth. And I know that there's

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Speaker 1: been like whenever you look into the news stories, you'll

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Speaker 1: hear about people defecting from one company and going to

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Speaker 1: the other, and there's always some sort of snarky comment

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Speaker 1: about that. So yeah, I think there's definitely some some

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Speaker 1: rivalry going on there. Um. I like the idea of

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Speaker 1: Cook taking the stage and saying essentially doing what Steve

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Speaker 1: Jobs did for the announcement of the iPhone, saying, talk

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Speaker 1: about an iPod that has wireless connectivity, a phone and

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Speaker 1: an Internet device, and that you know, as he goes on,

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Speaker 1: you realize he's talking about one product, not three products.

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Speaker 1: So something allot the lines of UH. Today, I want

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Speaker 1: to introduce to you a phone, a car, and an

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Speaker 1: Internet device. A phone, a car, an Internet device. Are

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Speaker 1: you guys getting it? It's the same thing. It's the

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Speaker 1: I car. That's what I want to see. I think

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Speaker 1: a car. Just saying the phrase of cars a little

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Speaker 1: bit um what's the word? It kind of gives it

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Speaker 1: away too much everything. They would come up with something

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Speaker 1: fancier to say, I think it gives it away too

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Speaker 1: much too, But I think I got a personal transport device. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: because then it could be a segue, right and the

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Speaker 1: investing Are you getting it? It's our car and we

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Speaker 1: think you're gonna love it. It's the thinnest car, which

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Speaker 1: is really bad for the safety tests. Well it would

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Speaker 1: it would. It would save on power consumption. You wouldn't

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Speaker 1: have is much mass to move around. The lightest car.

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Speaker 1: It gets picked up from the slightest breeze Yeah, if

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Speaker 1: you want to turn left, you just swipe left. Some

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Speaker 1: features will be added later. It turns out that you're

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Speaker 1: all of your all of your navigation features are likely

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Speaker 1: to send you to places that don't exist. Or oh

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Speaker 1: that's gotten that's gotten better this year, and Apple has

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Speaker 1: drones out there checking out at least that's coccording a

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Speaker 1: certain recent report that Apple's got drones out there searching,

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Speaker 1: getting a maps app data back to the Maps apps.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's not as bad as it used to be.

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Speaker 1: Where you where you don't have like the Washington Monument

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Speaker 1: located across the street from where it really is that

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Speaker 1: kind of thing. Oh no, they moved that just for

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Speaker 1: the Apple's map decided that's the drones are there for.

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Speaker 1: They like, oh, you're right, it does look better over

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Speaker 1: here exactly alright. So what was your next one? Sorry?

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Speaker 1: Mine was also dead. Rom Google was gonna go wireless

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Speaker 1: and finally it was gonna become its own wireless carrier.

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Speaker 1: Now that didn't happen. In I remember was talking a

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Speaker 1: bit about Project five being out there and Google still

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Speaker 1: has that, uh, and I was thinking maybe they were

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Speaker 1: tied in with Google Fiber, and Google Fiber would be

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Speaker 1: some kind of backbone for a wireless service. Yeah, that

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00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 1: slowed down to Google Fiber. There was a post on

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Speaker 1: it from Google saying, for the most part, our potential

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Speaker 1: fiber cities, those where we have where we've been in

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Speaker 1: exploratory discussions, We're going to pause our operations and offices

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Speaker 1: while we were fine our approaches. So it looks like

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Speaker 1: Google's pushed towards wired and wireless internet seems to be installed. Surprisingly,

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Speaker 1: I really thought they were going to push forward with

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Speaker 1: this maybe next year. Then maybe maybe there's always hope

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Speaker 1: that they do this because there's so much consolidation in

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Speaker 1: the wireless and wired space at this point that competition

400
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 1: is good. But um, yeah, when when it happened, when

401
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Speaker 1: the news was first breaking that Google was kind of

402
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Speaker 1: putting the brakes on fiber, like they're still rolling it

403
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 1: out in cities where they had started. So for example,

404
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 1: in Atlanta, they're still rolling out fiber because they had

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00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 1: already started that process. They had already wired up several

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Speaker 1: of the neighborhoods of Atlanta, not mine, but some of

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Speaker 1: the neighboring ones. Um. And then, uh, there was some

408
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: rumors at that point when Google said we're gonna We're

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00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 1: gonna slow down. That maybe they were going to explore

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Speaker 1: becoming a wireless UH Internet service provider instead, and rather

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00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 1: than have to lay out a fiber infrastructure, they would

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Speaker 1: look at, you know, building essentially essentially what equates to

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Speaker 1: towers or or using existing UH architecture to attach their

414
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 1: their technology too. But we I haven't seen any movement

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Speaker 1: on that one way or the other. It all seemed

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Speaker 1: to be largely based on just assumptions from the media.

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00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: An other thing is that's just thinking about how Google

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Speaker 1: did introduced or WiFi router system that us essentially creates

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Speaker 1: a mesh network within your own home. If Google sells

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Speaker 1: enough of those, maybe they can somehow come up with

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Speaker 1: a way to bridge up a Project five to build

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Speaker 1: a network. But that that's a much longer term thing.

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Speaker 1: I don't doubt that Google is working on wireless solutions,

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Speaker 1: but they have yet to make a real move, right Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: we'll have to see if seen changes that up at all.

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Speaker 1: I I do expect, like I keep hoping that Google

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Speaker 1: Fiber will continue in Atlanta and continue to deploy so

428
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 1: that I can hook up to it. I've really been

429
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: looking totally selfish reasons totally. I completely will own up

430
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: to that, but it would make podcasting from home a

431
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 1: possibility as opposed to a trial, as I as well knows.

432
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 1: I'm very aware of that. That's actually why I'm happy

433
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 1: with a service I have now that's wireless, and I'm

434
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:54,399
Speaker 1: not gonna sound like an AD, but I like my

435
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 1: wireless carrier right now. So maybe we'll see Google follow

436
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: suit and do the wireless thing. We'll have to keep

437
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: deep an eye out, but at the moment it is

438
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 1: as not a wireless carrier. My next prediction was that

439
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: VR would fizzle out in two thousands sixteen in the

440
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: consumer market, mostly because it took too long for really

441
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: compelling headsets to make their way to store shelves. In

442
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 1: late none of the major headsets had yet hit the

443
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: market where consumers could actually buy a finished headset, so

444
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 1: Oculus hadn't launched, h HTC Vibe wasn't out yet, and

445
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: of course PlayStation VR only recently came out for consumers,

446
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: so um, the only ones that you could really get

447
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: your hands on were essentially apps on phones, and then

448
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: you would get a cheap headset or a Google cardboard

449
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: or something like that and slide your phone into it,

450
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 1: and that was as close as you were going to get.

451
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 1: And some of those experiences are all right, but they

452
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: aren't nearly as immersive or as comprehensive as the full

453
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: headsets that were on their way. And my worry was

454
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 1: that by the time the headsets finally premiered, because they

455
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 1: we had been waiting for years for them to come out, uh,

456
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 1: they would not be able to live up to expectation,

457
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 1: and thus we would end up seeing low adoption rates

458
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: and also we'd probably see some sets just never come

459
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 1: to market at all. That the fact that there'd be

460
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 1: a lack of interest after all this time would cause

461
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 1: that to collapse up So the day we are recording

462
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: this episode, which is on December six, b GR published

463
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 1: a piece titled demand for VR headsets has been surprisingly disappointing.

464
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: Clearly they didn't listen to our show because I was

465
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 1: not surprised h And according to DigiTimes, demand has been

466
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: weakening recently for VR headsets and apparently the two big

467
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: reasons that they were citing for the slow sales were

468
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: high prices. So these are expensive headsets for the most part,

469
00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 1: particularly if you're looking at the PC based one, because

470
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: unless you happen to have a PC that has a

471
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 1: pretty hefty graphics processor, you'll probably have to either upgrade

472
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: your computer or buy a new rig, thus adding to

473
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 1: the cost of your headset um. Also, the other big

474
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: reason would be the lack of compelling content, which anyone

475
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: who is familiar with like the WE or the WU

476
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 1: or the WE move knows that will kill a system.

477
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: I mean those those systems were good, they weren't. There

478
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 1: were decent systems with interesting innovations, but there weren't enough

479
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: compelling games or experiences for them, and so you'd play

480
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: a little bit and then you just put it aside

481
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: and it would just kind of gather dust. I'm seeing

482
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: the same thing in VR right now, and even the

483
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 1: PS four PlayStation VR is suffering from this. I thought

484
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,199
Speaker 1: that that one out of all of them had the

485
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: best chance of succeeding because there's a big install base

486
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: of PS four sets out there. Already a lot of

487
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: people own a PS four, which means they don't have

488
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 1: to worry about that extra cost if they go and

489
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: buy a PS VR set. Uh. You know, they already

490
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: have the basic system that will take care of what

491
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 1: they need on the processing end. They don't have to

492
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 1: worry about their console whether or not it's good enough.

493
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 1: It is, but even that one hasn't done well. According

494
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: to this piece and b g r Uh they had

495
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 1: to slash their sales estimates from two point six million

496
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: units all the way down to seven fifty thousand. It's

497
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: a huge drop. So the question now is can VR

498
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: companies remain relevant enough to wait out this period until

499
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 1: there are enough compelling reasons to own these systems to

500
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: keep them viable in the market. I think so. I mean,

501
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 1: you're right in you didn't really go VRS away, and

502
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 1: there's a are all the different variants on these headset

503
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: based realities. Like I said last here, I said, it

504
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: probably takes probably needs another year or two, and like

505
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: you were mentioning, like I think, one of the biggest

506
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: problems has been that the PC based VR needs really

507
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: beefy processing. It needs a lot of power, and unless

508
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: you have something that's really modern, it's not there yet. Now.

509
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: Maybe in two to three years, when like the cutting

510
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: edge computers of today are the standard low end pieces

511
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 1: of computing, then then VR will be really universal. But

512
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: we have seen enough of these things come out. Occulus

513
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 1: Rift came out. I was surprised that that the ATC

514
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: Vibe came out. There's also the Google's daydream View. There's

515
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 1: a lot of different versions of these things. I believe

516
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: Oculus mentioned that they're working or Facebook's working on a

517
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: version of the Oculus that is somewhere between the full

518
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: on rift that you're connecting to a PC and something

519
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 1: that's between that and the one where you place a

520
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: phone in a headset, something that's a little bit more

521
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: all in one. And so maybe we'll see these things.

522
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: But like you're saying, the content, I've seen some of it.

523
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 1: The content is pretty good. It's getting there. But again,

524
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 1: like with the with smart watches, it's about compelling content.

525
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: Is it just like, hey, look I can turn around

526
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 1: and see a museum. That's nice, But do I want

527
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: to be in this a long time? I think Again, technology,

528
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: it's just not. The pace is too fast right now.

529
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 1: The VR stuff is cool, but the screens aren't good

530
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 1: enough yet, or the processing isn't good enough yet, or

531
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: the headsets or the headsets are too heavy. So when

532
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 1: you wear them, you only want to wear them for

533
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 1: up to maybe twenty to thirty minutes, which means you

534
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 1: have to design experiences that are ideal for twenty to

535
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: thirty minutes, not sitting down for two hours to game

536
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: because it's too uncomfortable to wear the headset that long. Yeah,

537
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: friend of mine has the Galaxy the Gear VR one

538
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: and his phone was constantly overheating within it, so he

539
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 1: hooked up a USB fan to it so he could

540
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: be there for longer than fifteen minutes. That is not

541
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: the experience you should have when you're doing this. So

542
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 1: it's still I think it's still early days, and UH

543
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: did not exactly like the World on fire. Now I

544
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: I I have, I really do hope that it's able

545
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 1: to weather the storm and to continue being a viable technology.

546
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: I love the idea of virtual reality, UH, and I

547
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 1: even love some of the implementations I've seen. I just

548
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to dive in and spend, you know,

549
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: a couple of grand in order to have one of

550
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: those at home, particularly since the one I like the

551
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: most all the ones I've tried, and I have not

552
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: tried all of them, so this is just based upon

553
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: my limited experience is the HTC vive because I like

554
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: the fact that you can move around in a physical

555
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: space and it's reflected within a game. But at the

556
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: same time, I don't have a space in my home

557
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 1: where I could do that. Like, even if I wanted

558
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: to spend that much money, I don't have a room

559
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: in my house that I could dedicate to VR. All

560
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: of my rooms in my house are dedicated to just

561
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: regular R. So I don't think that that's you know

562
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: that that's not for me either. But if we can

563
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 1: get to that point where the standard PC, just because

564
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: the way technology moves, the standard PC is your baseline

565
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 1: for being able to run VR, that will help a lot.

566
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: Where people are buying these new computers not because they

567
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: want to use a VR headset, but because that's now

568
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 1: the standard, low price computer and a VR headset will

569
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 1: happen to work with that. That's the ideal situation. It

570
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 1: is unfortunate that, uh, the way technology tends to go

571
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: is we see people try to take advantage of all

572
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: the power of technology has available to it at that

573
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: given time, which then puts the burden on the consumer

574
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: when it comes time to actually buying something because it's

575
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: gonna be way more expensive that way. At the same time,

576
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: you do want it to have a good experience. You

577
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 1: don't want it something that's gonna be super choppy or

578
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 1: really low quality graphics or sound, or something that would

579
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: be disastrous as well. So they were early in a

580
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: tough position. They they had to come out with something

581
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: because everyone was yelling for it. It had to be good,

582
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: and preferably it would be cheap. But you couldn't really

583
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: do all three. So we got really good, and we

584
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: got uh, you know, really powerful, uh and compelling in

585
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 1: a way as long as the experiences there, but not cheap.

586
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 1: It is not cheap, and I don't think there's anything

587
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: out there yet for your average consumer to convince them

588
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: to go and make that big investment. But maybe we

589
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: will see that change over the next year or two.

590
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: I'm sure we're gonna see lots of e R stuff

591
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 1: at CES this year too. It would shock, babe, we didn't.

592
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: Microsoft had a big push into VR and AAR with

593
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,959
Speaker 1: its last update to Windows ten, so I could see

594
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: that with those low priced accessories. I think they were

595
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: talking about two hundred maybe three hundred dollars for more

596
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 1: VR headsets that are working with Windows ten, so I

597
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 1: can imagine that. C Yes, we're gonna see a lot

598
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: of other headsets, a lot of other accessories that take

599
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: advantage of this. But again it's not it's not ready

600
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: for the masses yet. There's just it's just it's just

601
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: not there. Yeah. Uh, it kind of reminds me in

602
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:13,880
Speaker 1: a way of when personal computers first really hit the market,

603
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 1: like that. That was also one of those things that

604
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 1: a very niche market opened up for personal computers. It

605
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: took more than a decade for that to become something

606
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: that you would find in uh, in the average home.

607
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: Uh you could even argue almost two decades really for

608
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: that to become a thing. And uh so it may

609
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 1: be that VR is going to follow probably a much

610
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 1: shorter cycle than that, but a similar pathway. Now that

611
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 1: we both were talking about VR in that last one,

612
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: then my prediction came up again. So the next one

613
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: I made was that the cable industry will see subscriber

614
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 1: numbers shrink further. But it wasn't going to be the

615
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: tipping point where you know, the sky would be falling

616
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: for cable companies. And I was more right than not.

617
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 1: But I don't think I don't really give myself a

618
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 1: lot of points for this one because it was pretty

619
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 1: obvious and to the shrinking actually slowed a bit. Um

620
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: numbers show that, yes, there's still a decrease in subscribers

621
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 1: overall throughout the industry, but that decrease isn't at the

622
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 1: same rate as it was the previous year. It's slowed

623
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,879
Speaker 1: a bit, so it's starting to trickle. Uh. Some people

624
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 1: have said, perhaps we're seeing an end to this attrition

625
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 1: rate that had been taking place, and maybe now we're

626
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: reaching a point where the people who are currently subscribed

627
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 1: to cable television are are are not They're not holdouts.

628
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 1: It's just these are people who are satisfied with the

629
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: service and don't have any desire to move away from it.

630
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: So you could think of the people who were the

631
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: cord cutters and the cord never's as being on the

632
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: outskirts of this group, and now that they're gone, So

633
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 1: what's left is that core And it's a big one.

634
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 1: It's we're talking millions of people here, It's not like

635
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 1: it's a few hundred thousand. So we may have hit

636
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 1: a plateau. Uh. It may be that we're going to

637
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 1: continue to see a decrease, but it will be a

638
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 1: much smaller amount year over year um. And in fact,

639
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 1: Comcast this year reported they had a slight gain and

640
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 1: subscribers compared to the year before. So it may very

641
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,720
Speaker 1: well be that the cord cutting phenomenon is at least

642
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 1: pausing right now or or slowing down right now. What

643
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 1: do you think I as, I mean, I I don't

644
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: tend to cover this so much, but um, I mean,

645
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: I know what my own personal feeling is, but that's

646
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: based upon my own biases. So I think, you know,

647
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:40,439
Speaker 1: the the big guttural switch from being a cable having

648
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 1: person to a cord cutter. I think that's happened over

649
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: the past couple of years, but that trend is declining

650
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 1: just because there's only so much so many people who

651
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,840
Speaker 1: are willing to leave. For myself, I don't have it

652
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 1: and not cable, my brother does. He would never give

653
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 1: it to his cable, and my mom would. There's always

654
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 1: a bunch of people that won't and and people like

655
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: me who are cord killing. So if you want to

656
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,879
Speaker 1: call them that, we don't bother to like evangelize, Oh

657
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 1: you could do this, you could do that. At this point,

658
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: it's just there's enough options out there that with something

659
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 1: like the Sony PlayStation View, there's also direct TV. Now

660
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,439
Speaker 1: there's all these different options out there that I think

661
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:18,879
Speaker 1: the markets getting more and more educated when it comes

662
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: to what can you do with or without the court.

663
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: I think that might change things next year because now

664
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 1: the direct TV now exists and PlayStation view exists, and

665
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: they're much very much like cable subscriptions that could maybe

666
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 1: get people to switch, but only if they understand what

667
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 1: costs they're saving, because a lot of people like, why

668
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 1: would I ever pay this much money for television if

669
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 1: I could just get cable. We're not paying for the

670
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 1: rental of the box, you're not paying for the d

671
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 1: V R F and other stuff. But it's it's that

672
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 1: kind of thing that's going to change people's perception if

673
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 1: what do they understand cable to be? What do they

674
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: wanted to be? And are they just trying to substitute

675
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 1: that massive pipeline of channels or they just going I'm

676
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: gonna do other stuff. I'm gonna do v are, I'm

677
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 1: gonna read a book. Yeah, I'm gonna play a game.

678
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna watch Netflix. Right, I'm just gonna mainline all

679
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:19,760
Speaker 1: the Netflix original shows. Now. Your next one was another

680
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: one revolving around Facebook acquisitions, and I can't be right

681
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: about these Facebook, I said Facebook by atc UM. I

682
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 1: believe ACC worked with Facebook on phones before and no,

683
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,720
Speaker 1: that didn't happen. Yeah, Facebook, that would have been interesting.

684
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: We would have seen a dramagic decrease in competition in

685
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 1: that phizz link VR space. Well, that would have been

686
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 1: interesting if the vibe and the and the rift were

687
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 1: together somehow. Like it's odd because the word the word

688
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: rift suggests that you could never have such a thing.

689
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 1: I'm sure they have to come up with some kind

690
00:38:55,239 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 1: of cross platform. I'm gonna leave that one alone. But

691
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 1: a c C, which I thought was ripe for an

692
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 1: acquisition at this point because it's it's struggling. Although a

693
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 1: CC did get a design win, I believe they're the

694
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 1: people behind or the company, excuse me, the company behind

695
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: Google's Pixel phone and the Pixel XL so wow, it

696
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: doesn't have any branding from a SC. A c C

697
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 1: is the hardware partners, so they do have that. I

698
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 1: still think that company a SEC needs some kind of

699
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: huge win out there because they make some really great hardware.

700
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: I mean, I have Pixel, I really enjoy it. I've

701
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:31,240
Speaker 1: played with a STC phones for years. They're really quite solid,

702
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 1: and they just can't make a splash in this crowded

703
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 1: markets place between Samsung and Apple. Those two just together

704
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: are just monstrously large. And then there's every there's a

705
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 1: small bit of the pie for everybody else. Yeah, and

706
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 1: and we talked about this last time to My first

707
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: smartphone was an HTC smartphone because it was the the

708
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 1: HCCG one, the first Google phone in the United States

709
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 1: with the slideout key board. And uh, it is interesting.

710
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: Just as we were about to go into the studio,

711
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:08,720
Speaker 1: I saw a thing on the BBC that said that

712
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:14,280
Speaker 1: that there were some indications in the market that Google

713
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 1: might be interested in pursuing an acquisition with HTC. Although

714
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: that seems kind of odd to me, uh, mostly because

715
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 1: we already saw Google do that with Motorola Mobile and

716
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 1: then that didn't work out. But I mean, who's to say.

717
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 1: I'm not an expert on these things by any stretch

718
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 1: of the imagination. So possibly we could see an acquisition,

719
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 1: but maybe it's Google not Facebook doing the acquiring um,

720
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 1: in which case you would see Google get into the

721
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 1: VR game even bigger than they already have with their

722
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 1: their daydream stuff. And uh and Google Cardboard, I think

723
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 1: you just accidentally hit on something there that that would

724
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: be the good reason why Motorola didn't necessarily work out

725
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,879
Speaker 1: with Google, because Google can do hand sets, but when

726
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 1: it comes to VR, they might be struggling. And the

727
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 1: Vibe being one of the better experiences I've heard about.

728
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: I have not trying it out myself. I know you have.

729
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 1: Colleagues of mine have tried it out and they really

730
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 1: love what the Vibe is. Maybe that's the kind of

731
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 1: information and technology that they're looking for, but that's all speculation. Yeah,

732
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: it may just be that they were talking about other partnerships.

733
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: I mean, like like you were saying, I asked, with

734
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: the Pixel being an HDC handset even without the branding,

735
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a big deal. Uh. That's also the

736
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 1: next phone I want, but I don't have one right now.

737
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: My next prediction was that we would see lots more

738
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 1: growth in online media like Amazon, Prime Videos, Hulu, Netflix,

739
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: and also we would see a lot more from independent

740
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 1: or smaller creative studios, which was a total gimme. Uh,

741
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 1: I don't think. I think I could have predicted water

742
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 1: as wet, and that would have been slightly less surprising

743
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 1: than this prediction. So yes, we did see lots of

744
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 1: new shows and movies coming out from all of these platforms.

745
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: We also saw YouTube bread getting into the game and

746
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: really pushing original content, including series that star YouTube uh

747
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,439
Speaker 1: celebrities who have become famous for their own channels being

748
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 1: put into scripted series. Um, I've seen. I've seen lots

749
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 1: of commercials for those recently. When I've gone to see

750
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 1: actual movies, like, there's usually a promo there for the

751
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 1: upcoming YouTube series. So this I think is going to continue.

752
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 1: We're just going to see more and more of these.

753
00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 1: A lot of different platforms out there, all of them

754
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 1: are struggling to find a way to differentiate themselves from

755
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 1: the other competitors in the field. You know, why is

756
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 1: it that you would go to one versus another, And

757
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 1: especially for for groups like Netflix where they're having a

758
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 1: harder time establishing a video library from other content creators,

759
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: why not just go through and make your own darn content.

760
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: If it all happens to be Daredevil's spin off, so

761
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 1: be it. I'll watch them. Uh So, Yeah, I think

762
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 1: not a bold prediction by any means, but I would

763
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: say I was was pretty much correct on this one. Yeah,

764
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,240
Speaker 1: You're right on this. There wasn't like any massive consolidation

765
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: by any means. It wasn't like Netflix was purchased by Disney.

766
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 1: That would have been crazy. That was a rumor. At

767
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: one point Hulu was dissolved. So there's still competition. So

768
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 1: I like the fact that you are right on this one.

769
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 1: And thankfully there's enough competition out there when it comes

770
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: to streaming services. But there's a lot, a lot of

771
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:29,320
Speaker 1: services out there that are just competing for your dollars.

772
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: I know, there's like NBC C sells like this four

773
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 1: dollar thing. There's a Lifetime Movie Club, it's four dollars.

774
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: There's all these little tiny clubs that are popping up

775
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 1: that you know, after a while you're paying. It's almost

776
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: it's almost all the cart television almost, But um, we're

777
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 1: not going to get that yet. No. I all of

778
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 1: cart television I think is is I don't know that

779
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 1: we'll ever get it. Uh not, not until we get

780
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: to a point where cable television and satellite TV just

781
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 1: don't make sense anymore. And at that point maybe, but

782
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 1: until that happens, I just don't see it being a

783
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 1: real viable alternative. The biggest surprise for me was when

784
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: HBO finally went with HBO go. That was one of

785
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 1: those things where I was I was skeptical it would

786
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 1: ever happen. Not and I still don't subscribe to it.

787
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: So when people talk about west World, I tune out

788
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 1: because I haven't seen any of it yet. Wait wait, wait, wait,

789
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 1: you haven't seen west World. I know I want to

790
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: so badly, but I don't have HBO go. You can

791
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: get HBO now or she get you can get one

792
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 1: of those things. Like I'm shocked because I think West

793
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 1: World would be right up your alley. I I know,

794
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 1: I know, I'm still I'm still behind on Black Mirror though,

795
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 1: so I gotta you can skip half of that. I wouldn't.

796
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:52,280
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that later. Yeah, so your next prediction

797
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 1: was about a high game company. Yeah, the Nintendo and

798
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 1: X will be good. That was my prediction. And you

799
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 1: know what, I'm gonna give myself, you know, a third

800
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 1: of a point on that one. Not sure. It's not

801
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 1: even out until March. But the n X got a name.

802
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:10,720
Speaker 1: It's called the Nintendo's Switch. It's this hybrid home console

803
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: slash portable console. Basically, doc It's kind of like the

804
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 1: Nvideo Shields tablet if you think of it that way. Yeah,

805
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 1: you can dock this tablet and it works at your TV.

806
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 1: But this is all based on Nintendo's promo video where

807
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 1: they showed off all the different variants of this and

808
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 1: what it could do. But as far as I know,

809
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 1: I don't know anybody's played with this device yet. I

810
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 1: believe in January they're gonna Nintendo will speak about more

811
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 1: of the features about the Switch, but it's definitely interesting.

812
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: Whether it's good or not, that's for debate. There's the

813
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 1: possibility that they could be at c ES to show

814
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 1: it off in a little quiet suite somewhere, because that's

815
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: how I found out about the we U. It was

816
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 1: before the Surprise, Yeah, would I mean when the WU,

817
00:45:55,520 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 1: before the WEU came out, Nintendo rented a s eat

818
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 1: in once it was in the Renaissance, and I got

819
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 1: an invite to go check out the Wii you so

820
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 1: I did, and I got a chance to play with

821
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,800
Speaker 1: it before anyone on the public had had a chance.

822
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 1: You know. It's just people, just people in the industry

823
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 1: and people in media who got a chance to play

824
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 1: with it. So here's hoping they do the same thing

825
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 1: with the switch. I like the switch is reminds me

826
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 1: a lot of the Wii in the sense that it

827
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 1: has a very innovative uh style for the way you

828
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 1: interact with the game system, whether you're using it as

829
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 1: a handheld or if you plug it into your you know,

830
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 1: docking stations, that you play it on a on a

831
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 1: large television, and the various types of controller configurations. Uh.

832
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: It just again drives home the fact that they better

833
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 1: have some really compelling games and experiences to make really

834
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 1: good use of that configuration, because if they don't, you're like, well,

835
00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 1: this is really cool hardware, but what do I do

836
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 1: with it? Yeah? I don't know if they do, but

837
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:07,439
Speaker 1: we'll see it's And then I had another prediction. Yeah,

838
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 1: this is where we went into. This is where we

839
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 1: went into some rapid fire predictions. Apple will let you

840
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 1: set default apps on iOS. Now I was wrong about that,

841
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,800
Speaker 1: but you can delete stock apps. You can delete stock

842
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 1: app all you want to take. Let's imagine you're like,

843
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get rid of Apple's maps app. Cool, you

844
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 1: can get rid of it. And then you're like, I'm

845
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 1: gonna set Google Maps as my new default. You know

846
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 1: what happens is when you click in address it asks,

847
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 1: you iOS asked you to reinstall Apple's maps apps so

848
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:39,320
Speaker 1: you can get rid of stock apps. You cannot choose

849
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:44,359
Speaker 1: any non Apple default app, and then it nags you

850
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 1: to go back to the stock app. That's also why

851
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 1: I'm on a pixel phone now, by the way, Okay,

852
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 1: that's fair. That's actually why I'm like, Okay, I'm tired

853
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: of this game. I'm moving over back to Android. Um

854
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,399
Speaker 1: and speaking of it, of Android and phones, I said

855
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: something about a battery tech breakthrough. We're going to have

856
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 1: a battery tech breakthrough in Yeah, we didn't really get that. Well,

857
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 1: we we've got we've got some promising work in labs,

858
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 1: but nothing in the consumer space yet. Although one of

859
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 1: the groups I was reading about and m I T

860
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:18,800
Speaker 1: was preparing uh the technology to go into consumer products

861
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 1: in the near future, so we are seeing some movement

862
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 1: on this now. Batteries are are constricted by these pesky

863
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: laws of physics that unfortunately are keep things from just exploding.

864
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: Well not explains a bad word with Samsung, uh, keep

865
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:41,399
Speaker 1: keep things from from experiencing exponential performance. Right, You tend

866
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: to see very gradual improvements and in performance with batteries

867
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 1: as we experiment with different materials. But there are a

868
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 1: lot of researchers out there who are really working on

869
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: trying to improve battery life because obviously we're making more

870
00:48:57,080 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 1: and more powerful electronics that are meant to be portable

871
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 1: handheld devices especially, and if they're sucking up all that

872
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:08,160
Speaker 1: power that has to come from somewhere, and you want

873
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 1: to have a battery that's capable of keeping up or

874
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 1: else you're recharging every you know, thirty minutes or whatever.

875
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:16,959
Speaker 1: So some people at M I T have been working

876
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 1: on the next generation of batteries. Some of them have

877
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 1: been working with lithium metal batteries, which is interesting because

878
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 1: early lithium batteries were lithium metal batteries, but they were

879
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 1: not terribly stable. They were not very safe, and that's

880
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 1: when we started moving away from lithium metal batteries to

881
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:38,399
Speaker 1: lithium ion batteries. But now we're looking at another move

882
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: back to lithium metal where you can have essentially twice

883
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 1: the capacity of the previous generation batteries but in the

884
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:53,839
Speaker 1: same size form factor, which would be huge. Um And

885
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:58,239
Speaker 1: when we'll see that in consumer products, I don't know,

886
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,360
Speaker 1: or if it will ever actually make it there, I

887
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:04,760
Speaker 1: don't know. UM. There's been a lot of attention aimed

888
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 1: at batteries ever since the Galaxy Note issue. And that

889
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,799
Speaker 1: wasn't the breakthrough. I was talking about where things were

890
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:17,280
Speaker 1: poorly engineered the battery, where where fire was breaking through.

891
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 1: That's that's not exactly what I was talking about in

892
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 1: the literal sense. I guess technically it might might have

893
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 1: actually got a point there, but that wasn't That wasn't

894
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,280
Speaker 1: the breakthrough I was thinking of. I am I gotta

895
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 1: I gotta go on record and say I am glad

896
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 1: that neither you nor I made the prediction that Samsung

897
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:38,720
Speaker 1: was going to suffer this terrible pr disaster as people

898
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 1: were discovering their their devices catching fire, and I have

899
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 1: to issue an enormous recall because if either of us

900
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 1: had predicted that, it would sound like we had caused it. Well, yeah,

901
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 1: and then the other prediction that would have caused more problems,

902
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: that there would be a second recall. Yes, oh man.

903
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 1: I flew to Berlin shortly after the second recall was announced,

904
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,759
Speaker 1: and uh, and every flight I was on, because I

905
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:06,359
Speaker 1: had to fly from Atlanta to Chicago first and then

906
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 1: Chicago to Berlin and then coming back. It was reversing

907
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 1: that that trip every airport and every announcement before getting

908
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 1: on the flight involved like if you happen to have

909
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 1: a Note seven, you can't take it on the plane.

910
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 1: They even set up an exchange table at one of

911
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 1: the airports where you were supposed to come in and

912
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 1: exchange your phone for a different phone that would not

913
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:32,760
Speaker 1: presumably catch fire in the middle of the flight. So yeah,

914
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 1: not neither of us were able to predict that. UM.

915
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 1: I had a couple of rapid fire questions that I

916
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 1: just asked, and we both gave our kind of our

917
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:43,959
Speaker 1: our opinions about. One of them was, well, we see

918
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 1: a truly autonomous card debut in two thousand sixteen for

919
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 1: consumer use, and both of us said, no, that's not

920
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 1: gonna happen, and true to form, that didn't happen, although

921
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:55,800
Speaker 1: we did get a lot of driver assist systems that

922
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 1: were being misused as if they were driver less cars,

923
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 1: Tesla autopilot being the big example there. UM and I

924
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 1: did a whole thing where I said, maybe calling it

925
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 1: autopilot was the first mistake, because that sounds like it

926
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 1: could just take over for you, and that that's You're fine. UM,

927
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 1: it doesn't excuse people from ignoring the multitude of warnings

928
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 1: that say, under no circumstances should you do that. But

929
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:28,280
Speaker 1: we saw some pretty tragic results of people misusing Tesla

930
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:30,839
Speaker 1: autopilot as if it were a driverless car. And as

931
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 1: we both predicted, we don't have any driverless cars on

932
00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:37,439
Speaker 1: the market for consumers just yet. Everyone's working on it, though.

933
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,760
Speaker 1: To be fair to the naming convention here, don't forget

934
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 1: that there's a number of reports. I'm pretty sure these

935
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 1: are These are real people deciding that they were going

936
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: to hit cruise control on their vehicle and then going

937
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 1: to the back of their vehicle or doing something else.

938
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 1: Naming isn't everything. Yeah, now, there at least have been

939
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: plenty of of scenes in movies and television where characters

940
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 1: have done that to comedic of act, and I would

941
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 1: not be surprised if those were in fact based upon

942
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 1: true accounts. At some point or another. You make a

943
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 1: good point. It's I think when I said it's the

944
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 1: first mistake of calling it autopilot, I don't mean it's

945
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 1: the only mistake, like it's the primary driver. As soon

946
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 1: as anyone knows, Hey, this system that's in this car

947
00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:21,719
Speaker 1: is such an advanced driver assist system. That it is

948
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 1: essentially driving for you. Then it's you're you're inviting people

949
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:30,360
Speaker 1: to use it in ways that it was not intended. Um.

950
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 1: But yeah, maybe we'll see a driverless car hit the

951
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:35,399
Speaker 1: market within the next couple of years. I don't think

952
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 1: is going to be the year for it either, at

953
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 1: least not one marketed as a driverless car. I don't

954
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 1: think that's a possibility. We still have a lot of

955
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 1: people working on just getting the legality of driverless cars established.

956
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:50,960
Speaker 1: I was gonna mention I was gonnaation the legal loopholes,

957
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 1: not loopholes to the hurdles. Excuse me that they would.

958
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:57,479
Speaker 1: That's a lot of work ahead. Yeah, and and it's

959
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:00,759
Speaker 1: you know, it's hard to to dry how long that's

960
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 1: going to take because it's unprecedented, right, A lot of

961
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 1: the law that you know whenever we talk law, and

962
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 1: and I as knows this way better than I do.

963
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 1: He has training in law. Uh, but much of our

964
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 1: laws based upon precedent and builds upon precedent. And when

965
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 1: you get to two cases where it is, it requires

966
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:24,880
Speaker 1: a new new layer of thinking. It's a lot slower

967
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:26,839
Speaker 1: because you have to really put a lot of thought

968
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 1: into how are you going to frame this so that

969
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 1: you don't cause more problems further down the road in

970
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:37,399
Speaker 1: this case, both figuratively and literally. So um, yeah, it's

971
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 1: probably gonna take a while before we get truly autonomous

972
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 1: cars marketed for the book. Now, let me ask you

973
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 1: this just I know that we're not making predictions right now,

974
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 1: but do you think we're gonna see autonomous cars more

975
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:51,960
Speaker 1: likely to be used in uh like, uh like a

976
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 1: fleet kind of like Uber or lift before they would

977
00:54:55,360 --> 00:55:00,279
Speaker 1: ever be available for individual consumer purchase. I think I

978
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,439
Speaker 1: know they're being tested right now. You can get into

979
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:05,239
Speaker 1: an Uber that's it's it's essentially driving itself, but there

980
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:08,440
Speaker 1: is an engineer sitting in the driver's seat. I think,

981
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 1: I think I believe we're gonna see a lot of

982
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:16,360
Speaker 1: those happening before we see this the fleet allowed to

983
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 1: be truly without anybody in the car, because I could

984
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:22,279
Speaker 1: also see the liability aspects just being through the roof.

985
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 1: Just imagine some some guys decided to sit in the

986
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: driver's seat of a driverless vehicle and then taking it over.

987
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:30,080
Speaker 1: That could be a huge nightmare as long as it

988
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 1: as long as there are physical controls to take over.

989
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 1: That does remain a problem. Right, So that's that's the

990
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 1: kind of thing that I would have to be figured out.

991
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:41,120
Speaker 1: So fleet maybe I would actually think it probably happened

992
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 1: in commercial usages. Maybe in trucks. Yeah, maybe there's a

993
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 1: lead trucker. I think I've seen a couple of those

994
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:51,240
Speaker 1: already in testing. I think that would happen first because

995
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 1: that's a an industry that's more used to being regulated.

996
00:55:56,560 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 1: It sounds sounds very realistic to me. My next question

997
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 1: was would we see any big company shakedowns with huge

998
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:05,720
Speaker 1: changes at the executive level. You had pointed out HTC

999
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 1: and BlackBerry both had the potential to go that way.

1000
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 1: Neither of us were really certain. We knew that it

1001
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:13,239
Speaker 1: was gonna happen because it happens every year. When you're

1002
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 1: talking about something as big as the tech industry. Clearly

1003
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:20,960
Speaker 1: there's gonna be at least one shakedown somewhere. It doesn't

1004
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 1: you know, it might not necessarily be a top top

1005
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 1: name in technology, but it will definitely happen. So there

1006
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:29,359
Speaker 1: were some big ones. Condie Nast, which is you could

1007
00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 1: argue is not really a tech company, UH had a

1008
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:36,760
Speaker 1: pretty significant executive shuffle, but they're they're moving from print

1009
00:56:36,800 --> 00:56:40,719
Speaker 1: based focus to digital focus. They've been concentrating on that

1010
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 1: for years, but the shakedown, moving things around and putting

1011
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 1: different executives into into new positions really had more to

1012
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:51,840
Speaker 1: do with let's refocus this on creating a true digital business.

1013
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 1: Hyper Loop one had one of the most bizarre and

1014
00:56:57,040 --> 00:57:00,799
Speaker 1: dramatic stories. Did you follow any of the story of

1015
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,799
Speaker 1: hyper Loop one and and the crazy stuff that was

1016
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:06,600
Speaker 1: going on between the co founders. No, this I didn't

1017
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 1: know about. Yeah, so alright, so hyper Loop one is

1018
00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 1: one of the companies that's working to create hyper loop

1019
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 1: as a reality. Hyper Loop, of course, is Elon Musk's

1020
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 1: little off the cuff suggestion. It's a little more than that,

1021
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 1: but he was very casual in the way he suggested

1022
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 1: this of an enclosed train system where you would pump

1023
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 1: out most of the air so it would be a

1024
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 1: near vacuum, but not a real vacuum, a very low

1025
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:39,920
Speaker 1: pressure uh enclosed tunnel system and shoot trains through magnetic

1026
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 1: levitation at super high speeds so you can travel between

1027
00:57:43,480 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 1: say Los Angeles and San Francisco in like half an

1028
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 1: hour um, which would be pretty darn fast. And there

1029
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 1: are a couple of different companies that have been working

1030
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:55,840
Speaker 1: on being the first to actually make this a reality.

1031
00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 1: One of those is hyper Loop one. UM and the

1032
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 1: former cy TEO of Hyperloop one was Brogan bam Brogan,

1033
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 1: and that is his name, Brogan bam Brogan, who who

1034
00:58:07,560 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 1: actually came over from SpaceX to be an engineer for

1035
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 1: Hyperloop one. Uh. There was some sort of crazy falling

1036
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: out between Bam Brogan and the other co founders of

1037
00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 1: the company, and bam Brogan was ousted from the company.

1038
00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 1: He then sued his former co workers. They countersued him

1039
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 1: because they said that he was uh spreading untruths about them,

1040
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:37,600
Speaker 1: including saying that one of the other executives had threatened

1041
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 1: him by placing a noose on his desk, which seems

1042
00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:45,480
Speaker 1: pretty extreme. Uh, don't know if it's true or not,

1043
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 1: but anyway, there was this big move of suing and countersuing,

1044
00:58:48,760 --> 00:58:51,520
Speaker 1: and then in November the whole thing was settled out

1045
00:58:51,560 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 1: of court. The terms were not disclosed. We don't know

1046
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 1: who was paid what or to what extent. But man,

1047
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 1: if you want to talk about dramatic shakedown in the

1048
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 1: executive level, it tells me that I'm going to have

1049
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 1: to do an episode about hyper loop one just to

1050
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 1: really dig into what exactly happened. And uh and too

1051
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 1: because it is a crazy even the bit I've just

1052
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:17,200
Speaker 1: talked about, that's just the tip of the iceberg. We

1053
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 1: saw some other sorry icebergs as uh well you know, uh,

1054
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 1: typically these are would we have to be figurative icebergs.

1055
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 1: You don't really get literal icebergs in enclosed train tubes

1056
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:34,640
Speaker 1: at least not at Yeah, maybe that let's look for

1057
00:59:34,680 --> 00:59:39,720
Speaker 1: a hyperop version two point oh for iceberg integration. Intel

1058
00:59:39,800 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 1: also said goodbye to some executives U some folks who

1059
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:45,680
Speaker 1: were in charge of the mobile chip divisions, the PC

1060
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:50,000
Speaker 1: division and the Internet of Things division were either let

1061
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 1: go or replaced or or moved into a different position. UM.

1062
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:56,479
Speaker 1: Intel has been struggling a little bit in this space

1063
00:59:56,520 --> 01:00:00,360
Speaker 1: because PC sales are starting to really well, they have

1064
01:00:00,480 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 1: been over the last few years on on the decline,

1065
01:00:05,760 --> 01:00:10,280
Speaker 1: and of course Intel's big businesses manufacturing chips for for

1066
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:13,280
Speaker 1: personal computers, and that's still where they get most of

1067
01:00:13,320 --> 01:00:17,640
Speaker 1: their revenue. But uh, you know, it's they're they're trying

1068
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:21,280
Speaker 1: to maintain relevancy in a world that is changing around them,

1069
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 1: so they've been reevaluating their priorities. I'm curious to see

1070
01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:26,440
Speaker 1: what their booth is going to look like this year.

1071
01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 1: It's or next year. At CES, since we're still in

1072
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 1: UH and each trade changed several executive level positions in September,

1073
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 1: including replacing the chief executive officer, So there were some

1074
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:46,360
Speaker 1: big shifts around at the executive level at various companies UM,

1075
01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:50,600
Speaker 1: but again that happens every year. UH. I also asked,

1076
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 1: are there any tech bubbles that will see burst in?

1077
01:00:54,520 --> 01:00:57,959
Speaker 1: And this is kind of similar to the executive shake

1078
01:00:58,040 --> 01:01:01,600
Speaker 1: up one. We're like, well, may maybe there There didn't

1079
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:03,760
Speaker 1: seem to be anything that was just on the verge

1080
01:01:04,000 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 1: of imploding. I, as you said, maybe we will finally

1081
01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 1: stop hearing the phrase the uber of whatever, Like this

1082
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:15,840
Speaker 1: company is the uber of mobile game apps. I think

1083
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,080
Speaker 1: that's actually right, though I don't don't remember hearing that

1084
01:01:18,120 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 1: phrase in a long time, or my brain is completely

1085
01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:23,280
Speaker 1: blocked it since the last year. Yeah, I I haven't

1086
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 1: heard it a whole lot either. I think I think

1087
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 1: part of that is due to the fact that as

1088
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 1: time goes on, I feel worse and worse about the

1089
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 1: company uber Like I don't I'm not terribly I'm not

1090
01:01:36,520 --> 01:01:39,960
Speaker 1: a big fan, Like I like the service just fine,

1091
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:42,880
Speaker 1: but it's a company that makes me uncomfortable with the

1092
01:01:42,920 --> 01:01:47,920
Speaker 1: way the executive leadership uh communicates. I mean, you've got

1093
01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:52,000
Speaker 1: executives who are actively talking about a future in which

1094
01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:57,880
Speaker 1: they replace all human drivers with autonomous cars, which puts

1095
01:01:58,240 --> 01:02:01,040
Speaker 1: thousands of people out of work. Like You're you're saying

1096
01:02:01,080 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 1: this while these people are working for you. You're essentially announcing, Hey,

1097
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:09,240
Speaker 1: your time is limited, your days are numbered, We're going

1098
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 1: to replace you. Keep driving. It doesn't that that rubs

1099
01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:19,280
Speaker 1: me the wrong way. Uh so anyway, but I also

1100
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 1: have not heard people use that phrase very much. Recently.

1101
01:02:22,720 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 1: I said that we probably see some food delivery services

1102
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:26,640
Speaker 1: start to phase out due to too many players in

1103
01:02:26,640 --> 01:02:28,720
Speaker 1: the market space. I think actually there are more of them,

1104
01:02:29,000 --> 01:02:33,120
Speaker 1: at least in my neighborhood. So I'm not complaining because

1105
01:02:33,160 --> 01:02:35,600
Speaker 1: I'm lazy and I like it when food comes to me,

1106
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:41,320
Speaker 1: So I'm alright with being wrong about that. And uh yeah,

1107
01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 1: I don't know that there is anything that's on the

1108
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 1: verge of imploding, like VR probably would have been the

1109
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 1: closest except for the fact that it hadn't really launched yet.

1110
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 1: So I think to implode you have to be big

1111
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:57,200
Speaker 1: first and then fall apart. I think VRS problem is

1112
01:02:57,240 --> 01:03:02,320
Speaker 1: that it it's having a real issue getting traction, and

1113
01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 1: so it may be more of a a fizzle rather

1114
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:10,320
Speaker 1: than an implosion. Um. And I also, will any technology

1115
01:03:10,320 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 1: officially die in sixteen, I don't. I can't think of

1116
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:17,880
Speaker 1: anything where you know, we we just say, oh, do

1117
01:03:17,920 --> 01:03:21,400
Speaker 1: you remember such and such? Yeah, that doesn't exist anymore. Um.

1118
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 1: In fact, I would say some of the war obsolete

1119
01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:26,600
Speaker 1: quote unquote obsolete types of technology made a little bit

1120
01:03:26,600 --> 01:03:31,959
Speaker 1: of a comeback in like vinyl vinyl. Definitely I bought

1121
01:03:32,000 --> 01:03:35,120
Speaker 1: three vinyl albums on Saturday. Or no, I'm sorry on Friday.

1122
01:03:35,240 --> 01:03:37,160
Speaker 1: Well I guess technically one of them was on Saturday

1123
01:03:37,160 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 1: because it had passed midnight at that point. Um. Yeah,

1124
01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:42,800
Speaker 1: so I bought three vinyl albums just this past weekend.

1125
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:46,360
Speaker 1: And or like we mentioned, eight millimeter film, we did

1126
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:48,440
Speaker 1: I as You and I did an episode, not not

1127
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 1: the Predictions episode, but we did an episode about obsolete

1128
01:03:52,440 --> 01:03:55,160
Speaker 1: technologies once upon a time, and one of those we

1129
01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:59,960
Speaker 1: talked about was eight millimeter film. Well, CS code at

1130
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:02,200
Speaker 1: came out with a new eight super eight and millimeter

1131
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:05,520
Speaker 1: film camera, which was one of the big hits among

1132
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:09,560
Speaker 1: my team. We all went crazy for it because it

1133
01:04:09,600 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 1: was a real kind of nostalgic throwback to how we

1134
01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:19,000
Speaker 1: all got started and shooting film. So maybe I am

1135
01:04:19,040 --> 01:04:21,720
Speaker 1: a little more gun shy about saying which pieces of

1136
01:04:21,760 --> 01:04:24,760
Speaker 1: technology are gonna die at this point. I did just find.

1137
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:27,680
Speaker 1: I did just find while we were talking about this

1138
01:04:28,120 --> 01:04:32,520
Speaker 1: technology that did die this year. It was happened in July.

1139
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:36,840
Speaker 1: Headline reads, the last known VCR maker stops production forty

1140
01:04:36,920 --> 01:04:40,240
Speaker 1: years after the VHS format launch. Now, yeah, I believe

1141
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:46,320
Speaker 1: the last VHS tapes were being produced is the end

1142
01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 1: of the VCR production, which is a very very sad. Yeah,

1143
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:53,400
Speaker 1: we can we can say that the VCR, I guess

1144
01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:58,040
Speaker 1: officially is dead now. Uh so, yeah, maybe there we go.

1145
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:01,320
Speaker 1: There's one. Yeah. We we couldn't really think of any

1146
01:05:01,360 --> 01:05:03,200
Speaker 1: off the top of our heads when we were making

1147
01:05:03,240 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 1: these predictions. I also asked, do you think the Facebook

1148
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:08,200
Speaker 1: Professional Services platform will be a success, and we were

1149
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:11,080
Speaker 1: both very noncommittal, like, well, we don't know enough about

1150
01:05:11,080 --> 01:05:14,360
Speaker 1: it yet. Maybe it will be, we don't really know,

1151
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:20,280
Speaker 1: and uh no, it got shut down in November, so

1152
01:05:20,360 --> 01:05:22,200
Speaker 1: I think we didn't really know about We never really

1153
01:05:22,240 --> 01:05:25,760
Speaker 1: got to know. I completely forgot that it existed until

1154
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 1: I saw the note and I'm like, oh, yeah, that

1155
01:05:27,880 --> 01:05:30,280
Speaker 1: was a thing and it didn't go anywhere. And then

1156
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 1: I asked, you do you think well, I said this

1157
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:34,840
Speaker 1: this question wasn't for you because you're not as into

1158
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:38,200
Speaker 1: computer games as I am. I asked, will the the

1159
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 1: game starts is and actually come out in so you

1160
01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:44,360
Speaker 1: had no opinion, I said it probably would not, and

1161
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:46,920
Speaker 1: it was running the risk of becoming the next Nukem forever.

1162
01:05:47,040 --> 01:05:51,120
Speaker 1: A game that is, you know, is almost always just

1163
01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:54,640
Speaker 1: in development, and so it runs the danger by the

1164
01:05:54,680 --> 01:05:57,280
Speaker 1: time it finally comes out disappointing people because it's not

1165
01:05:57,320 --> 01:05:59,640
Speaker 1: what they were hoping it would be. It didn't come

1166
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:02,840
Speaker 1: out into sixteen, or at least not since not by

1167
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:06,840
Speaker 1: the time we're recording this AH, parts of the game

1168
01:06:06,840 --> 01:06:09,360
Speaker 1: have come out, like you can do little things that

1169
01:06:09,400 --> 01:06:11,720
Speaker 1: are connected to the game, but the game itself hasn't

1170
01:06:11,720 --> 01:06:15,520
Speaker 1: come out. People have poured a hundred and thirty one

1171
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:20,400
Speaker 1: million dollars into this game, and there there are people

1172
01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:25,480
Speaker 1: who have spent thousands of dollars on video games spaceships

1173
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:30,400
Speaker 1: for this game, and the game has not yet come out. Um,

1174
01:06:30,440 --> 01:06:33,040
Speaker 1: this game is weird. It's it's like the most successful

1175
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:40,000
Speaker 1: game that hasn't come out yet. Uh so not. I'm

1176
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 1: not shocked that it didn't come out. I keep hoping

1177
01:06:44,160 --> 01:06:46,400
Speaker 1: that to see it come out. The last I saw

1178
01:06:46,480 --> 01:06:50,000
Speaker 1: there still wasn't a specific date that was being cited

1179
01:06:50,040 --> 01:06:52,520
Speaker 1: as the release date. But it's supposed to be coming

1180
01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 1: out soon. Um. And the final question is when we

1181
01:06:55,840 --> 01:06:58,880
Speaker 1: can't answer, which was do you think Rogue one will

1182
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:00,800
Speaker 1: be any good? I mean, we could answer that, but

1183
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:02,800
Speaker 1: we can't answer whether or not it is good because

1184
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:04,960
Speaker 1: we haven't seen it yet. I assume I as you

1185
01:07:05,000 --> 01:07:07,080
Speaker 1: haven't seen it yet, right, I have not seen it.

1186
01:07:07,080 --> 01:07:08,680
Speaker 1: In last year when you mentioned this to me, I

1187
01:07:09,200 --> 01:07:11,919
Speaker 1: had no idea this movie was being made. Yeah, well,

1188
01:07:11,920 --> 01:07:14,240
Speaker 1: now you can't avoid the marketing for it. It's everywhere

1189
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:17,919
Speaker 1: Star Wars. Rogue one the first of the spinoff Star

1190
01:07:17,960 --> 01:07:23,800
Speaker 1: Wars movies that are not directly part of the the

1191
01:07:23,840 --> 01:07:27,640
Speaker 1: main storyline, although this one is real darn close to it,

1192
01:07:27,720 --> 01:07:30,840
Speaker 1: since it's about the team that stole the plans for

1193
01:07:30,880 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 1: the Death Star, which play an important role in a

1194
01:07:33,520 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 1: little movie called Star Wars A New Hope. Do you

1195
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:39,520
Speaker 1: know that there's no sequel to Rogue one coming that's

1196
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:42,040
Speaker 1: been announced, because essentially the sequel to Rogue one is

1197
01:07:42,080 --> 01:07:45,320
Speaker 1: the New Hope. It's Star Wars. Did you see did

1198
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:47,160
Speaker 1: you see the thing that hit the internet where someone

1199
01:07:47,440 --> 01:07:51,520
Speaker 1: like Disney furious that Rogue one sequel poster has leaked

1200
01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:53,640
Speaker 1: and it was the poster for Star Wars and New Hope.

1201
01:07:54,720 --> 01:07:58,280
Speaker 1: I did see that because that's I mean, that's essentially it. Yeah,

1202
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:01,400
Speaker 1: that's cute. That's a cute joke. Um. Yeah, still haven't

1203
01:08:01,400 --> 01:08:03,200
Speaker 1: seen it because it hasn't come out as of the

1204
01:08:03,200 --> 01:08:07,040
Speaker 1: time we're recording this podcast, so I'm still anticipating it.

1205
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:12,640
Speaker 1: There's one of my coworkers here who maybe she's already

1206
01:08:12,680 --> 01:08:15,320
Speaker 1: seen it. She's got a lot of she's got a

1207
01:08:15,320 --> 01:08:17,760
Speaker 1: lot of clout over with the Star Wars folks, but

1208
01:08:18,320 --> 01:08:24,920
Speaker 1: she's positively like vibrating over excitement about seeing this movie.

1209
01:08:25,080 --> 01:08:27,880
Speaker 1: It's if you if you say Rogue one near her,

1210
01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:32,400
Speaker 1: her eyes just light up. So, um, here's hoping it

1211
01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:35,320
Speaker 1: will be a truly entertaining film for her sake if

1212
01:08:35,360 --> 01:08:38,720
Speaker 1: no one else's. And that's it. Those were all the

1213
01:08:38,720 --> 01:08:44,479
Speaker 1: predictions we made. I think we did okay, our big

1214
01:08:44,560 --> 01:08:47,599
Speaker 1: crazy predictions didn't necessarily come true, but in some cases

1215
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:53,000
Speaker 1: even weirder things happened, and that's always fun. Um, did

1216
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:55,479
Speaker 1: you have any any that you were like, Wow, man,

1217
01:08:55,520 --> 01:08:58,320
Speaker 1: I was. I was just either I was way closer

1218
01:08:58,360 --> 01:09:00,320
Speaker 1: than I thought, or I was just completely off base,

1219
01:09:00,960 --> 01:09:03,960
Speaker 1: you know it. It's looking back on the Prediction Show

1220
01:09:04,240 --> 01:09:07,599
Speaker 1: and seeing the results. I see that I'm consistently yearly

1221
01:09:07,680 --> 01:09:12,320
Speaker 1: fascinated with BlackBerry and a PC. It's this sickness I

1222
01:09:12,400 --> 01:09:15,880
Speaker 1: have because I keep seeing these two floundering companies which

1223
01:09:15,920 --> 01:09:19,040
Speaker 1: I've been covering for years, and so I guess it's

1224
01:09:19,120 --> 01:09:22,439
Speaker 1: it's Uh, although I didn't even think about BlackBerry this year,

1225
01:09:22,479 --> 01:09:25,400
Speaker 1: so that's waning, So maybe that's already over. I'm getting

1226
01:09:25,439 --> 01:09:28,559
Speaker 1: past it, So I was. I guess I'm a little

1227
01:09:28,560 --> 01:09:31,360
Speaker 1: surprised at things I've forgotten. Facebook even having that business thing,

1228
01:09:31,400 --> 01:09:34,840
Speaker 1: and Yahoo finally finding its proper suitor, or it's it's

1229
01:09:34,840 --> 01:09:37,600
Speaker 1: it's it's a new home. That seems like that was

1230
01:09:37,640 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 1: an inevitable So we'll see how this all shakes out

1231
01:09:40,400 --> 01:09:44,960
Speaker 1: over the long term. Yeah, yeah, I feel the same way. Uh.

1232
01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:46,680
Speaker 1: And and you know, I'm going to be doing a

1233
01:09:46,760 --> 01:09:49,920
Speaker 1: Predictions episode which you guys out there will hear very

1234
01:09:49,960 --> 01:09:53,160
Speaker 1: shortly where I will predict what I think will happen

1235
01:09:53,160 --> 01:09:58,439
Speaker 1: in seventeen, a year filled with way more uncertainty than

1236
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:03,840
Speaker 1: I think was. There's some big questions, particularly along the

1237
01:10:03,920 --> 01:10:06,080
Speaker 1: lines of things like what is the fate of net

1238
01:10:06,120 --> 01:10:12,040
Speaker 1: neutrality in twenty seventeen, Big tough questions, so I can't

1239
01:10:12,080 --> 01:10:14,240
Speaker 1: wait to tackle that one. It's gonna be a laugh

1240
01:10:14,360 --> 01:10:18,880
Speaker 1: riot and people, and I'm gonna try I I as

1241
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:20,760
Speaker 1: is invited to do this as well. I'm gonna try

1242
01:10:20,800 --> 01:10:23,479
Speaker 1: and get some of my friends to send in a

1243
01:10:23,520 --> 01:10:26,160
Speaker 1: prediction or two if they like, and those will also

1244
01:10:26,200 --> 01:10:28,760
Speaker 1: be featured in the show. It'll mainly be me, but

1245
01:10:28,960 --> 01:10:32,519
Speaker 1: I will be happy to uh to feature some predictions

1246
01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:35,160
Speaker 1: from other folks. Will see how many people are able

1247
01:10:35,200 --> 01:10:38,040
Speaker 1: to respond. I gave them a little bit of time,

1248
01:10:38,080 --> 01:10:40,280
Speaker 1: but everyone's very busy this time of year, so we

1249
01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:43,360
Speaker 1: will try to get as many of those as we can.

1250
01:10:44,080 --> 01:10:46,920
Speaker 1: And um, I asked, where can people find your work?

1251
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:50,120
Speaker 1: You can find my work at c net dot com

1252
01:10:50,240 --> 01:10:53,200
Speaker 1: or Twitter dot com slash I s I Y e Z.

1253
01:10:53,600 --> 01:10:55,960
Speaker 1: That's where I post pretty much everything and anything, and

1254
01:10:56,000 --> 01:10:58,519
Speaker 1: a lot on Instagram these days. Same user name at

1255
01:10:58,520 --> 01:11:01,200
Speaker 1: I as I y e zy because I think and

1256
01:11:01,240 --> 01:11:05,320
Speaker 1: I predict that Twitter, well, it's not long for this world. Yeah,

1257
01:11:05,680 --> 01:11:08,559
Speaker 1: that's I wish I could say that's a bold prediction.

1258
01:11:08,680 --> 01:11:11,240
Speaker 1: But yeah, every day when I come on and I

1259
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:18,200
Speaker 1: log onto Twitter, I think, I guess it's not this day. Yeah. Interesting. Also,

1260
01:11:18,240 --> 01:11:20,800
Speaker 1: if you do follow Ias on Instagram, you might learn

1261
01:11:20,840 --> 01:11:25,679
Speaker 1: a little something about the wonderful profession of professional wrestling.

1262
01:11:25,960 --> 01:11:28,639
Speaker 1: You never know. Oh good gosh, yes you will. Yeah,

1263
01:11:28,760 --> 01:11:32,559
Speaker 1: oh man, and it's awesome. All right, Well, guys, thank

1264
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:34,960
Speaker 1: you so much for listening. If you have any predictions

1265
01:11:35,000 --> 01:11:37,640
Speaker 1: for two thousand seventeen that you want to share with me,

1266
01:11:37,960 --> 01:11:41,519
Speaker 1: send them my way. Uh. The email addresses tech stuff

1267
01:11:41,760 --> 01:11:44,680
Speaker 1: at how stuff works dot com, or drop me a

1268
01:11:44,760 --> 01:11:47,160
Speaker 1: line on Facebook or Twitter. The handle of both of

1269
01:11:47,200 --> 01:11:50,760
Speaker 1: those is text stuff H s W and I'll talk

1270
01:11:50,800 --> 01:11:59,679
Speaker 1: to you again. Releasing for more on this and thousands

1271
01:11:59,680 --> 01:12:11,840
Speaker 1: of other topics. Is it how stuff works dot com,

1272
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:11,719
Speaker 1: wh