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Speaker 1: Now here's a highlight from Coast to Coast AM on iHeartRadio,

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Speaker 1: and welcome back to Coast to Coast George and Nori

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Speaker 1: with you our special guest Harry S. Dent Back with us.

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Speaker 1: Harry A. Junior is the founder of Dent Research, which

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Speaker 1: publishes the newsletters Economy and Markets, Boom and Bust, and

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Speaker 1: The Leading Edge, among many others. He's got an MBA

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Speaker 1: from Harvard, was a consultant for several Fortune one hundred

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Speaker 1: companies while at the Baine and Company, and lectures widely.

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Speaker 1: Harry is also the author of Zero Hour, as I

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Speaker 1: just mentioned, turn the greatest political and financial upheaval and

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Speaker 1: modern history to your advantage. His websites are linked up

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Speaker 1: at Coast to coastam dot com. What kind of a

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Speaker 1: ride are we going to have? Harry? Well, you know, George,

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Speaker 1: you know, we get you know, we've had these big

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Speaker 1: booms in the stock market and big crash is unlike

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Speaker 1: the last long boom in the forties, fifties and sixties,

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Speaker 1: and I think we have likely just seen the Dow

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Speaker 1: in S and P either peak or very close to

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Speaker 1: a peak. And I think we're going to see, you know,

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Speaker 1: some volatility in the next few months, and then one

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Speaker 1: more run for the NASDAC to try to make that

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Speaker 1: one last high, and then failed before the election. So

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Speaker 1: the stock market may decide the election more than anything.

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Speaker 1: It's very hard to get reelected when you get a

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Speaker 1: stock crash or you start to fall into an elections.

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Speaker 1: So I think we're at a very critical point and

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Speaker 1: people really need to understand that this is not another recession.

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Speaker 1: I have three major cycles all coming together here. The

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Speaker 1: third one the most powerful, hitting really right about now

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Speaker 1: in early next year. This is going to be more

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Speaker 1: like nineteen twenty nine to thirty two, and it's going

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Speaker 1: to be deeper than the two thousand and eight two

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Speaker 1: thousand and nine what they call Great Financial crisis or recession,

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Speaker 1: which which took a lot of people underwater in their

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Speaker 1: mortgages and was the greatest down turn we've seen since

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Speaker 1: the early eighties. And so this is this is serious stuff.

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Speaker 1: This is not the type of thing, George, where you

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Speaker 1: want to listen to your stock program. They said, well,

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Speaker 1: stocks always come back, and you know we can have

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Speaker 1: you diverse five note two thousand and eight and nine,

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Speaker 1: everything went down except for high quality bonds in the

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Speaker 1: US dollar and so diverse if occasion didn't help. But

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Speaker 1: in this case, this is going to be a peak

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Speaker 1: that will not be exceeded for decades, Harry. Last week

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Speaker 1: the New York Fed pumped about eighty seven billion dollars

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Speaker 1: into the bank system. What's going on here, Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: they started, you know, after all this buying bonds and

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Speaker 1: pumping trillions of dollars about four trillion dollars in the economy.

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Speaker 1: That's just the US. It's been about sixteen trillions since

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Speaker 1: two thousand and nine globally with all the central bank.

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Speaker 1: Now the US started, you know, pulling back in, you know,

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Speaker 1: draining those access reserves they put in, and that means

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Speaker 1: less liquidity in the bank. So what happens is these banks,

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Speaker 1: most banks borrow from the big banks overnight at like

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Speaker 1: about a two percent rate, and so all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: the big banks are saying, oops, we don't want to

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Speaker 1: lend to you. So the Fed had to step in.

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Speaker 1: You know the last time that happened two thousand and eight. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and look what happened then, Oh yes, So so that

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Speaker 1: you know, they're making like, oh, it's no big deal,

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Speaker 1: and oh they just had to make their quarterly payroll

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Speaker 1: tax that no, no, this happens every quarter. That does

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Speaker 1: not hasn't happened since two thousand and eight. So that

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Speaker 1: is one of those first warning signs, George, that that hey,

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Speaker 1: something's going wrong. And of course they're not going to

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Speaker 1: tell you something's going wrong because they don't want people

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Speaker 1: to pant. Harry Thursday night, I'm going to do a

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Speaker 1: little investigation into the impeachment inquiry to see if we

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Speaker 1: can sort through some of this in this situation. I've

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Speaker 1: talked to a lot of people and they say that

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Speaker 1: if it gets to trial in the Senate, they don't

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Speaker 1: think President Trump will be impeached. What's your take on

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Speaker 1: this and what will this do to our financial situation

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Speaker 1: just the trial? Well, well, you know, um when Nixon,

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Speaker 1: I mean one of our bit my biggest cycles is

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Speaker 1: a forty five year cycle, and that's the one that's

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Speaker 1: most hitting right now. And if you double that, it

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Speaker 1: hit in nineteen twenty nine. This is right on the

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Speaker 1: Nixon impeachment cycle forty five years ago. And of course

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Speaker 1: this thing was building just like this whole Trump thing,

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Speaker 1: you know, when Michael Cohen turned on him, Just like

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Speaker 1: John this thing is following the whole Nixon pattern almost exactly.

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Speaker 1: And it would basically say around late this year, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the next few months particularly, this is going to intensify.

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Speaker 1: The stock markets did not react that much to the

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Speaker 1: whole impeachment threat with Nixon until the tapes came out,

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Speaker 1: and and and so now here you have this Ukraine thing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they haven't reacted much yet, but this Ukraine

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Speaker 1: thing is like, well, that's kind of pretty flagrant, and

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Speaker 1: and and it's the same thing as Bill Clinton. Yes,

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Speaker 1: the House may well passes. The Senate is very unlikely.

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Speaker 1: But you have to notice recently, George, this is you know,

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Speaker 1: the Republicans went from seven percent to twenty eight percent

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Speaker 1: in polls saying they think impeachment should be considered. So

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Speaker 1: things are shifting. And you have already now just recently

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Speaker 1: over this Ukraine event, seeing Republican senators start to say,

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Speaker 1: oh wait a minute, now, now you know we've we've

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Speaker 1: stood behind you, but this has gone too far. So

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Speaker 1: we'll have to see how this goes. But I would

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Speaker 1: expect this certainly to intensify over the next few months.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, I also expect, George, that if

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Speaker 1: the stock market does take a first bigger downturn here

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Speaker 1: to start off this kind of volatility that the Federal

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Speaker 1: Reserve and Central banks will step in harder than ever in.

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Speaker 1: Trump will get that stimulus he wants and that may

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Speaker 1: give us one last rob But this impeachment thing is

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Speaker 1: not good for the markets. And I tell you, George,

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Speaker 1: I don't think the markets get If Jimmy the Greek

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Speaker 1: were still around. I think he'd be giving Elizabeth Warren

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Speaker 1: at least a fifty percent chance of becoming president in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty, that the stock marry, this stock market bubble

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Speaker 1: would be over dead on a ride. Those are pretty

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Speaker 1: good odds for her. Yeah, I mean, well, right now,

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Speaker 1: she's rising in the polls consistently. Trump is falling modestly.

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Speaker 1: And Joe Biden I predicted this from the beginning. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's a husband that Obama wouldn't even let him talk

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Speaker 1: in public because he'd always fumble it up or something.

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Speaker 1: He is dropping dramatically. And I think Trump actually this

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Speaker 1: Ukraine thing, he actually took a risk to himself knowing

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Speaker 1: the best thing he could do is knock out Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: Because he's a centrist Democrat. He would weigh rather run

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Speaker 1: against Warren or Sanders. But I tell you Sam Warren,

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Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren, she she has got energy, She's got naw.

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Speaker 1: I mean, she's the most knowledgeable, the strongest campaigner. I've

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Speaker 1: been predicting from the beginning that she was the most

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Speaker 1: likely to win. And I tell you right now, she

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Speaker 1: doesn't look like she has a lot of competition the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Now that's you know, Bernie, you know, got a few

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Speaker 1: stints in his heart. That doesn't look good when you're

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Speaker 1: on No, not at all. If you look at Herry,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the economy at a one to

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Speaker 1: ten scale, with ten being the best robust everything else

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Speaker 1: where would you give our economy right now? What point? Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: ten robusts would be nineteen twenty nine, nineteen sixty eight,

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Speaker 1: and two thousand. Right at the top of the tech bubble.

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Speaker 1: That's when demographics, which is one of our big cycles

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Speaker 1: where we're growing the fastest technology cycle, Internet moving mainstream

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Speaker 1: at the speed of life, light interest rates coming down

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Speaker 1: with natural not not unnatural stimulus, but just natural productivity

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Speaker 1: and something that was the peak. Now we had I

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Speaker 1: have a number of cycles. We had the geopolitical cycle,

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Speaker 1: peak with nine to eleven in late two thousand and one.

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Speaker 1: Our demographic cycle of baby boom, we're spending more money

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Speaker 1: peaked in late two thousand and seven. I predicted that, George,

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Speaker 1: back in nineteen eighty eight when I came up with

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Speaker 1: my first long term indicator on that. But the technology cycle,

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Speaker 1: with the Internet and social media and all this stuff,

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Speaker 1: that's just peaking now. So so we've had, you know,

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Speaker 1: a peak in two thousand and one to kind of

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Speaker 1: hit the markets, and then we had a big crash

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Speaker 1: in a peak in two thousand and seven that hit

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Speaker 1: the markets, bigger crash. Now we got the biggest crash

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Speaker 1: coming when this last and most important cycle hit. So

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Speaker 1: so now we're at i'd say a six the recovery.

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Speaker 1: And the people don't get this if I look at

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Speaker 1: the peak in nineteen twenty nine, through the worst of

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Speaker 1: the Great Depression in nineteen forty eleven years, and can

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Speaker 1: go forward now to the peak in two thousand and

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Speaker 1: seven we had, and then now into two eighteen nineteen,

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Speaker 1: the cumulative GDP grew the slowest in history. We grew

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Speaker 1: only twenty percent back then in the thirties, and it's

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Speaker 1: grown nineteen percent less and we haven't even hit the

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Speaker 1: worst downturn by all of my indicators. So we're at

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Speaker 1: a six heading for a zero. We're heading for something

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Speaker 1: like nineteen thirty two, probably not quite as bad overall

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Speaker 1: is to twenty nine to thirty two, because we do

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Speaker 1: have stronger demographics in the emerging world that give a

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Speaker 1: little bit of cushion to the world market. But our

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Speaker 1: debt levels make nineteen twenty nine look like nothing. And

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Speaker 1: the overvaluation of the stock market and the stimulus from

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Speaker 1: central banks, this has never been done. They have poured

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Speaker 1: sixteen trillion dollars in the economy. US companies have poured

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Speaker 1: five point seven trillion dollars in the last ten years,

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Speaker 1: buying back their own stocks to goose their earnings for

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Speaker 1: share when their earnings have been weak. This whole thing

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Speaker 1: is artificial. This is going to be the greatest stock

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Speaker 1: bust we see in our lifetime. So I see it

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Speaker 1: as a six going down to zero in the next

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Speaker 1: two to three years. But the only thing is then

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Speaker 1: it's over all of my cycles will have bottomed out

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Speaker 1: by then. Listen to more Coast to Coast AM every

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Speaker 1: weeknight at one a m Eastern and go to Coast

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Speaker 1: to coast am dot com for more