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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Running in the court, ten seconds ormaining, so it just

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Speaker 2: goes throw un to the basket, under the basket.

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Speaker 3: It's the true for the wind God, a miracle.

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Speaker 1: The water hit that.

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Speaker 3: One from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast off my

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Speaker 2: Calgarry to joined by my Action Network co hosts Duck

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Speaker 2: and Christian o'jack jean. We're talking college hoops at the midweek.

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Speaker 2: That means we're gonna get into Thursday Friday games, maybe

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Speaker 2: even a looker to a head.

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Speaker 3: To the Saturday slates.

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Speaker 2: But before we do and get into all of our

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Speaker 2: best bets, I want to kick it to you first. Duck,

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Speaker 2: you had some thoughts on the Arizona game. I had

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Speaker 2: the Wildcats had locked in Prey Peterson's sniffles or whatever

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Speaker 2: reason that the kid's not playing.

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Speaker 3: I was like, oh, this is this is mince.

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Speaker 2: You know, they got off to a great start. I've

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Speaker 2: had a couple lucky opportunities where had middle games this year.

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Speaker 2: I saw Kansas like plus nine and a half, plus ten.

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Speaker 2: I was like, Nah, there's no way they're going to

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Speaker 2: get back into this and then of course they win

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Speaker 2: the game out right, But you.

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Speaker 3: Got some thoughts beyond just their play on the floor.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they had an extra guy or two in the

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Speaker 2: zebra costume helping them out.

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Speaker 3: I remember, this is a safe space. You know what

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Speaker 3: pisses me off most of all.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you're randing now, baby, I ran why not?

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Speaker 2: You gotta let it out somehow.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's really hard for Arizona to go up

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Speaker 4: against that two three to two zone when you factor

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Speaker 4: in the referees. I just don't know how anyone can

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Speaker 4: sit back and watch that game and believe it was

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Speaker 4: officiated fairly. Just seemed like down the stretch, every single call,

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Speaker 4: every whistle went the way of the Jayhawks.

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Speaker 1: You have guys.

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Speaker 4: Battling on the block Arizona would get whistled, and then

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Speaker 4: you have Kansas on the other end that would perform

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Speaker 4: similar sort of action or conduct and no foul was called.

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Speaker 4: You had so many empty consecutive trips for Arizona where

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Speaker 4: guys were just banging in the post and we couldn't

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Speaker 4: get a whistle. He had an Arizona guy that was

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Speaker 4: blatantly hitting the face on a fast break. No call.

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Speaker 4: You the bigger picture is it's tough when you have

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Speaker 4: teams that go long stretches in the second half without

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Speaker 4: being able to score the basketball. Duke went through this Tennessee.

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Speaker 4: Now Arizona really a lesson learned, or it should be

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Speaker 4: for these teams. Playing timid on the offensive end in

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Speaker 4: league play on the road this late in the season

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Speaker 4: is absolutely trouble and you're going to see teams rally

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Speaker 4: and get back into it. I think this is exactly

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Speaker 4: what Arizona deserves and this is what they needed. I

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Speaker 4: think when you look at Arizona in totality of their season,

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Speaker 4: we talked last week about them really needing some crunch time,

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Speaker 4: pressure situations, and that's what they got. Now they can

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Speaker 4: at least look each other in the eyes and know

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Speaker 4: what they have in crunch time. I think these moments

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Speaker 4: are huge and will really help Arizona long term when

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Speaker 4: they get deeper into the NCAA Tournament. I'm not suggesting

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Speaker 4: that they're going to win it. They could, but I

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Speaker 4: just think that teams need to go through adversity, and

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Speaker 4: they certainly had that on Monday night.

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Speaker 2: Now, Christian, you wanted to get into the bubble, which

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Speaker 2: this is about the time of year where it really

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Speaker 2: you know, the rubber hits the road. You have to

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Speaker 2: start stacking wins if you're on the wrong side of

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Speaker 2: the bubble, if your team like Virginia Tech, Ohio State.

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Speaker 3: Cal New Mexico.

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Speaker 2: Also, I hate to bring it up, but if Miami

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Speaker 2: were to drop two games before the MAC Conference Championship

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Speaker 2: game all of a sudden, they would be in peril

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Speaker 2: of missing the tournament as an at largest team as well.

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Speaker 2: So it's going to get dicey for a lot of

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Speaker 2: these teams if they haven't already been feeling the heat.

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Speaker 2: Walk me through what you're seeing with the bubble right now.

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Speaker 5: There are some lovely Twitter bracketologists who are putting out

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Speaker 5: bracket projections like so early, and I try to delay

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Speaker 5: looking at bracket predictions as much as possible. But now

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Speaker 5: we're nearing a month out from selection Sunday, I'm starting

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Speaker 5: to take a peek at least where teams are are standing.

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Speaker 1: And what jumped out to me when I looked.

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Speaker 5: At the bubble is these teams first were out, next

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Speaker 5: four out. A lot of them are bad, like, you know,

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Speaker 5: quite bad. Yeah, it seems like in you know, I

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Speaker 5: think Pete their narrative has been that the bubble has

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Speaker 5: been weak. But I feel like there's been some teams

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Speaker 5: like playing some really good basketball that like got left

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Speaker 5: out that we've been upset on the past years and

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Speaker 5: right now according to Lenardi, first four out of Ohio State,

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Speaker 5: Like would like to see Bruce in the tournament. I

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Speaker 5: don't think Ohio State is very good though, cal who

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Speaker 5: we were speaking before recording who sixty ninth on M Palm, Like,

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Speaker 5: you know, stole a couple wins, but do.

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Speaker 1: We think they're that good.

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Speaker 5: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State VCU sea In Hall Tulsa, Missouri

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Speaker 5: is the one team with this group that I've circled

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Speaker 5: as I really.

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Speaker 1: Want to see them in the tournament.

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Speaker 5: I think they're an actual high seiling team, a team

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Speaker 5: that dealt with injuries early on the season, and a

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Speaker 5: team that's trending in the right direction. And Seaton Hall

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Speaker 5: would be fun to get in there. That's a team

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Speaker 5: that I think is more so on the deserving side

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Speaker 5: than top you know, thirty thirty eight forty team to

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Speaker 5: get that spot. But just something to monitor when we're

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Speaker 5: doing all these bubble discussions and it becomes the dialogue

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Speaker 5: can be exhausting at times. If do we need to

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Speaker 5: know San Diego State standing like on a daily basis

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Speaker 5: and now every single game impact San diy State, It's

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Speaker 5: kind of like they're going to lose in the first four,

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Speaker 5: so like, what's the point of going over this? But

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Speaker 5: Missouri is a team that I'm tracking that I don't

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Speaker 5: think will end up having to go to date and

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Speaker 5: I think they'll end up be as they got eight

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Speaker 5: through ten seed. But uh yeah, I just emotionally sometimes

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Speaker 5: I get tied to a bubble teams.

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Speaker 1: I would love to see them manner like, can we

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Speaker 1: not deal with this team in the tournament?

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Speaker 3: What do you think, Duck?

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's arguments you can make right now, but

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Speaker 2: for the most part, there's just work to be done.

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Speaker 2: Certainly for the Power Conference teams, everything's in front of them.

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Speaker 2: You can start stacking wins that the committee obviously gives

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Speaker 2: preferential treatments too, as opposed to a team like New Mexico,

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Speaker 2: where how many losses can you take? And really it

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Speaker 2: will probably come down to how deep you can make

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Speaker 2: a run in the conference tournament. It seems like the

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Speaker 2: low bods are going to need to at least get

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Speaker 2: to the conference championship game. If I mean, there's just

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Speaker 2: not much in terms of impressive work that they can

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Speaker 2: do for the committee.

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Speaker 3: Between now and conference tournaments on, well, these games.

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Speaker 4: Become more and more magnified, starting tonight with Ohio State, USC,

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Speaker 4: Virginia Tech, Clemson, California, and Syracuse. There's just so many

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Speaker 4: critical games and teams are going to have to start

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Speaker 4: stacking wins together. Missouri is an interesting case study because

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Speaker 4: they have a real brutal stretch down the way where

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Speaker 4: they have A and M Vandy, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi State.

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Speaker 4: They'll have opportunities to play their way into the tournament,

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Speaker 4: but Ken only has these guys winning one more game

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Speaker 4: down the stretch. I think it's likely probably four and

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Speaker 4: four or three and five in that stretch. But what

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Speaker 4: you're going to get is a nine to nine conference

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Speaker 4: record and nineteen and twelve overall before the SEC tournament.

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Speaker 3: And so is the.

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Speaker 4: Committee going to be favoring a team with a profile

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Speaker 4: like that, an athletic team, a team that can really

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Speaker 4: extend the defense, a team that can get creative on

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Speaker 4: offense to do some different things. Are they gonna put

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Speaker 4: Missouri in over Tulsa team or Miami of Ohio if

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Speaker 4: they happen to drop two games. New Mexico's a real

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Speaker 4: fascinating study as well. They've just gone through a tough

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Speaker 4: three game stretch where their defense has really let the

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Speaker 4: Lobos down against San Diego State in a game they

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Speaker 4: won before losing the last two. They have to play

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Speaker 4: Grand Canyon tonight on the road, who if they lose

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Speaker 4: this one might seal the Lobo's fate because you can't

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Speaker 4: have nine or ten losses in the Mount and West

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Speaker 4: Conference and expect to get at large. So these games

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Speaker 4: become much more magnified. They become more and more important.

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Speaker 4: Every possession becomes important, generally from a betting perspective that

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Speaker 4: allows these games to trend to the under. So I'll

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Speaker 4: be fascinated to see these four games that we talked

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Speaker 4: about in Tonight's Action and beyond all.

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Speaker 2: Right, I talked about Miami of Ohio briefly, and I

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Speaker 2: just want to put this out there question for the panel,

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Speaker 2: do you know how many Power Conference teams have losing

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Speaker 2: records straight up more losses than wins that are ranked

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Speaker 2: higher in KEMPOM than Miami Ohio.

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Speaker 1: Christian Europe first. I saw your notes, but my guess

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Speaker 1: would be would have been around four.

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Speaker 3: Duck, how about you seven?

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Speaker 2: We got six right now, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Wake, Northwestern Ole,

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Speaker 2: Miss and Providence. Providence, by the way, open the biggiest

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Speaker 2: two to nine. Let coolly walk into the dunk, built

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Speaker 2: a sixteen point lead, then end up blowing it in

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Speaker 2: the final ten minutes.

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Speaker 3: I'm offended by kempom. I love kempom. It's a great tool.

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Speaker 3: I use it.

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Speaker 2: That's not a Gottlieb like you know, speech that I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna give right now. But all all of this, I mean,

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Speaker 2: has the metric has Miami Ohio ninety first, tour VIC

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Speaker 2: seventy ninth, MEAs seventy fifth.

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Speaker 3: I just think there's a flaw in the system, no matter.

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Speaker 2: Like basically, they're saying, no matter what you do, if

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Speaker 2: you go undefeated, you can't be better than Providence.

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Speaker 3: That's bullshit. It's just wrong.

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Speaker 2: And you're allowed to move them up and then quickly

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Speaker 2: move them back. This has been the kind of compromise

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Speaker 2: that I put out there for the RedHawks.

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Speaker 3: If you want to put them at sixtieth.

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Speaker 2: Right now, or put them on the nine line, but

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Speaker 2: then they lose a single game, because every single game

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Speaker 2: moving forward in the regular season is a potential landmine.

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Speaker 2: It's either Quad three or Quad four loss. So I

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Speaker 2: understand the tightrope walk that they're on, but you can't

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Speaker 2: say that winning every game doesn't matter. I mean, we

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Speaker 2: just came out of the college football universe where it

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Speaker 2: gets so frustrating where you talk about quality losses or

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Speaker 2: the grind of the SEC and all that crap. If

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Speaker 2: a team goes undefeated, it's at the very least a

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Speaker 2: good kind of mystery box as opposed to Minnesota Notre

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Speaker 2: Dame like Wake, talk me through Wake, like head to

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Speaker 2: head Christian, what do you think about the RedHawks against

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Speaker 2: the Demon Deacons this year? And do you think it's

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Speaker 2: justified that Wake is higher in ken Palm.

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Speaker 5: Well, we have to remember that ken Palm is a

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Speaker 5: predictive metric, right, And there's a reason why Akron, in

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Speaker 5: the same league with five losses, is up at sixty fourth,

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Speaker 5: and it's because you know, they went to Macarina only

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Speaker 5: lost by eighteen. They played Yale on a neutral on

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Speaker 5: they lost by three, lost by three at Miami Ohio,

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Speaker 5: lost lost at Troy, and they lost to Murray State,

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Speaker 5: Like it's it's really just compiling the data.

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Speaker 1: It's I don't think it's possible.

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Speaker 5: For a team to go under, Like I wonder how

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Speaker 5: many teams, like with the schedule that they have presented

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Speaker 5: front of them, could go undefeated and.

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Speaker 1: Not be higher than this.

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Speaker 5: And it's like, it's not like this is some like

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Speaker 5: when you watch them play basketball, they're obviously a very

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Speaker 5: very good team. But ah, like, would I pick Wake

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Speaker 5: to beat Miami on a neutral I would pick Miami,

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Speaker 5: but like Wake has better players and Wake almost be

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Speaker 5: Michigan and Texas Tech, So like, I understand why the

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Speaker 5: predictive metric still has an eleven told Wake team ahead

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Speaker 5: of them, but it is frustrating to see, and honestly,

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Speaker 5: the most fruscating thing about it to me is that

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Speaker 5: Travis Steel couldn't that everyone ran away from Travis Steel,

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Speaker 5: Like he knew he had a good team. They're of

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Speaker 5: good last year. He brought guys back, he did it

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Speaker 5: the right way, and no one to play him. Like

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Speaker 5: that's the biggest issue here to me, versus the predictive

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Speaker 5: matchic that's such.

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Speaker 4: A huge element of it as well, is with Miami

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Speaker 4: of Ohio, you factor and who they've played, who they

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Speaker 4: haven't played. But Steele would benefit everybody to publicly release

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Speaker 4: the list of power for and high major competition that

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Speaker 4: they petitioned to play. I mean, they did their part

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Speaker 4: by at least submitting the request to say we'll play

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Speaker 4: anybody any place, and they get constant rejection notices. North

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Speaker 4: Dakota State in FCS football found this same problem. They've

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Speaker 4: only played ten FBS foes in the last ten years

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Speaker 4: because nobody would play these guys anymore. There's no benefit

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Speaker 4: to playing Miami of Ohio if you're in one of

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Speaker 4: these high major leagues because a win only just okay,

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Speaker 4: well you should have won the game anyway, you have

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Speaker 4: better players, but a loss really inhibits your resume. So

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Speaker 4: it's really a shame for Miami, Ohio because they wanted

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Speaker 4: to play multiple teams that were ranked and regarded as

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Speaker 4: better than what the schedule called for, but they just

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Speaker 4: got decline notices.

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Speaker 3: There's also another victim in this, which is the team

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Speaker 3: that draws them if they're misseeeded on the eleven line.

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Speaker 3: So think about this for a second.

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Speaker 2: Louisville could potentially draw them and then have to draw

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Speaker 2: Florida in the very next game, whereas on the exact

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Speaker 2: same line, Clemson could play Santa Clair.

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Speaker 3: And then Michigan State.

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Speaker 2: Those are two different paths, completely, two different, you know,

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Speaker 2: difficult roads to hoe. And I just think this is

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Speaker 2: kind of ridiculous, where if this is what the committee

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Speaker 2: comes out with, now, they haven't put out their their

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Speaker 2: bracket or their you know, mocked up bracket yet, so

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Speaker 2: we'll get a little bit of insight into what they're thinking.

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Speaker 2: But bracket matrix is almost always right on the money.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're within a couple percentage points maybe a

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Speaker 2: line or two for a team. If this is where

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Speaker 2: it's headed, somebody on the sixth line is going to

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Speaker 2: get absolutely screwed over the seven line, and then there's

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Speaker 2: gonna be other teams on that same exact seed line

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Speaker 2: that are going to be the beneficiaries of it. So

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Speaker 2: it's not just I think Miami is getting short changed.

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Speaker 2: I think it's also punitive in a way. That's not

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Speaker 2: fair to a team like Louisville to have to draw

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Speaker 2: on Miami Ohio.

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Speaker 3: Just putting that out there.

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Speaker 5: You know what the craziest thing is, though, if Miami

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Speaker 5: goes undefeated, I bet they're like a seven at the best,

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Speaker 5: right right, But if they they go perfect, are do

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Speaker 5: they get above a seven, like even if their kempond

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Speaker 5: gets up to fifty?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: I don't think so either.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is basically the entire analytics community community speaking,

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Speaker 2: and I think the last five years you've seen the

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Speaker 2: committee move closer and closer to following these metrics.

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Speaker 3: So I don't think there's going to be a big

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Speaker 3: surprise Nephrigan zag for sure.

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Speaker 2: I think basically we're not going to see them get

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Speaker 2: like a four or five out of nowhere and make

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Speaker 2: that big jump up. Like even if they were to

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Speaker 2: beat Akron in the MAC Championship game and it's what

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Speaker 2: their second quality to win or third Q two win,

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Speaker 2: whatever it is, I agree with you.

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Speaker 3: Any final thought, stock Well.

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Speaker 4: It'll be interesting to see how Miami finishes down the stretch,

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Speaker 4: and they're going to get every MAC opponent's best shot

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Speaker 4: from here on out. What if they go undefeated, losing

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Speaker 4: the MAC title game to Akron and then steal a bid.

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Speaker 4: I mean, these guys might play in Dayton in the

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Speaker 4: first four. It's unbelievable to see the volatility and the

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Speaker 4: variance as to where this team could possibly be seated

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Speaker 4: if not left out entirely, which would be a shame.

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Speaker 2: All right, before we get into our picks, I got

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Speaker 2: one more rants that I want to get off my

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Speaker 2: chest real quick, and you guys can feel free to

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Speaker 2: hop in. But this is a shout out to our

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Speaker 2: former director of audio here at Action Network, Matt Mitchell,

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Speaker 2: who loved this phrase. When it comes to Rick Barnes,

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Speaker 2: he's a born loser. He's coached thirteen All Americans in

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Speaker 2: his career, including KD and he's made one Final four.

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Speaker 2: That's twenty nine trips to the Big Dance, thirteen All Americans,

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Speaker 2: one Final four. But let's talk about the here now

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Speaker 2: and why I'm fired up. Two double digit second half

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Speaker 2: blown leads against Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: You can't win either.

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Speaker 2: I know that our BBOC Live show on Saturday, Greg

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Speaker 2: had the final leg of it, which was Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: That should have cashed.

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Speaker 2: They're up six with four to go against Georgia. Recently,

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Speaker 2: the Bulldogs find a way to drag him to overtime.

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Speaker 2: You score seven points in the final five minutes and

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Speaker 2: change against Alabama, that's another escape. I'm out on this team.

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Speaker 3: If a mens isn't special, I don't think they're getting

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Speaker 3: to the second weekend. I'm calling it right now.

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Speaker 2: I think they're absolutely a candidate ticket upset in the

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Speaker 2: round of sixty four. Lonardi has them in the five

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Speaker 2: to twelve matchup against Stephen F. Austin, a low major

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Speaker 2: team who's really good defensively and can shoot threes a

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Speaker 2: thirty seven percent clip. Sign me up for that, duck.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on Tennessee. I know it's a

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Speaker 2: team that we talked about. Is it a buy low

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Speaker 2: spot for them or at the undervalued in the market.

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Speaker 3: I'm just putting on.

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Speaker 2: The record right now, a lot of positivity out of

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Speaker 2: me this time of year for teams not on the balls.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I just I don't like teams that play

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Speaker 4: timid on the offensive end, and I don't like teams

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Speaker 4: that can't find ways.

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Speaker 3: And crunch time to score the basketball.

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Speaker 4: It was such a disappointing loss given how that game

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Speaker 4: was trending and how they played the first thirty minutes

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Speaker 4: of the basketball game. I'm not going to throw them

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Speaker 4: out completely yet at this point, but you know, it's

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Speaker 4: a rivalry game against Kentucky in an environment that they

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Speaker 4: generally struggle in.

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Speaker 3: But we'll see. I need to see a little bit

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Speaker 3: more from these guys.

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Speaker 4: When you know they've got upcoming games against Vanderbilt, Alabama,

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Speaker 4: Mississippi State on the road, it's going to be a

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Speaker 4: little bit tricky for Tennessee the rest of the way.

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Speaker 4: But I still want to see more. I want to

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Speaker 4: see this team play complete, complimentary basketball, and I just

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Speaker 4: don't think we've seen their best effort yet this season.

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Speaker 4: So you know, we talked about them as a team

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Speaker 4: that could have some value at one hundred to one. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: maybe so, but TVD on them. I'm not willing to

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Speaker 4: throw them out quite yet.

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Speaker 5: I'm typically a Tennessee March fader, but when you zoom

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Speaker 5: out a second, in the last two months, they're only

365
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Speaker 5: losses two games against Kentucky. They should have won at

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Speaker 5: Florida at Arkansas, probably the two toughest games in the league.

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Speaker 5: So I actually sprinkled on fifteen to one Final four

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Speaker 5: on Tennessee. It's I was like one of the biggest

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Speaker 5: Native Mint critics early on. I think a lot of

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Speaker 5: people were just when you have that high of a

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Speaker 5: pedigree next to your name, and you're just soft with

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Speaker 5: the ball, missing open shots when when you look like

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Speaker 5: you should be able to get whatever you want just

374
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Speaker 5: with your your guy given ability and your skill level,

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Speaker 5: and then you're settling and taking bad shots like you

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Speaker 5: open yourself to that.

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Speaker 1: And I'm like, Jacoby Gilespie is on his own. But

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Speaker 1: I'm just.

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Speaker 5: Looking at this team with their number one offensive rebounding

380
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Speaker 5: Jacoby Glesspie, well, well, sometimes it seems like there's just

381
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Speaker 5: too much on his plate. He's still an absolute dynamite

382
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Speaker 5: guard like he was unreal you know for Maryland down

383
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Speaker 5: the stretch last year too, Like in the way Rick

384
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Speaker 5: Barnes talks about them.

385
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Speaker 1: I mean, say what you want about him. He still

386
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Speaker 1: made back to back of lead eight's.

387
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Speaker 5: Like this is a team that you know, if Nata

388
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Speaker 5: Mints averaging twenty six a game, which he could the

389
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Speaker 5: rest of the season, like that is the Chasling your

390
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Speaker 5: Dalton connect guy, the of the we're gonna we're gonna

391
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Speaker 5: defend an elite level this year. Team is not top

392
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Speaker 5: five defense, which is what we've come to expect from them.

393
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Speaker 1: It's sixteenth right now.

394
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Speaker 5: But if they can push the top ten, aman can

395
00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 5: level up and you know, guys like Boswall can continue

396
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Speaker 5: to just chip in and like hit a couple of

397
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,919
Speaker 5: threes in those games. Like Tennessee is a team that

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Speaker 5: I wanted to write off, but I haven't been able to.

399
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Speaker 5: But I'm cautiously in on them. Fifteen to one final

400
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,160
Speaker 5: four I thought was the best long shot final four,

401
00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,400
Speaker 5: a bet that I saw good.

402
00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:27,160
Speaker 3: Put this out there.

403
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 2: The one positive silver lining they have an ace in

404
00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,480
Speaker 2: the hole when it comes to the committee, as that

405
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 2: win over Houston. If they're in one of those spots

406
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:36,440
Speaker 2: where I do they get a five? Do they get

407
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,200
Speaker 2: a four? Because of that that continues to loom large,

408
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,320
Speaker 2: particularly a f Houston goes off and wins the Big

409
00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,440
Speaker 2: Twelve Conference tournament and you know, solidifies a one seed.

410
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,560
Speaker 3: That's something that could be a tiebreaker for them. Let's

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00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:49,600
Speaker 3: stick real quick in the state of Tennessee. Christian.

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Speaker 2: It's one of your thoughts on a team you were

413
00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 2: an early adopter on in Vanderbilt. You looked like an

414
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,440
Speaker 2: absolute genius. They're playing some of the best ball in

415
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Speaker 2: all of college basketball.

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Speaker 3: They hit a dip.

417
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Speaker 2: Are they going to be able to get it turned

418
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 2: around long term and really be playing at the kind

419
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 2: of level they were early in this season, particularly on

420
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,399
Speaker 2: the offensive end. And if that is the case and

421
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,440
Speaker 2: they rev up that engine too a top ten level,

422
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,200
Speaker 2: how deep do you think this trunk can go for the.

423
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,120
Speaker 1: Doors really good road wind at Auburn. Auburn's a tough

424
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 1: Remember they blew the doors off Arkansas when they came there.

425
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 1: To me, it's a simple sell.

426
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,560
Speaker 5: As much as I love Tyler Tanner and as unreal

427
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 5: as he's been this year, they are asking for so

428
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 5: much of him, and he has had to force the

429
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:27,119
Speaker 5: issue offensively, and.

430
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 1: That's led to him get into the line a lot.

431
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:29,919
Speaker 5: It's led to a lot of high point totals, but

432
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 5: he's turning it over more and he's just taken some

433
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:36,639
Speaker 5: tougher shots. People are forgetting that Duke Miles was like

434
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 5: playing really really well.

435
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:40,720
Speaker 1: And not only that. Frankie Collins is.

436
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 5: A fifthier guard who averages two steals a game and

437
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,359
Speaker 5: gives them another ball handler. They would have two of

438
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,640
Speaker 5: those guys on the court at all times when they

439
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 5: were killing everyone in non con right legs fresh And

440
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,240
Speaker 5: it's not just about taking Tanner's Tanner off the ball

441
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 5: a little bit offensively, it's defensively when they are undersized.

442
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,399
Speaker 1: The way that they are able to be.

443
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,200
Speaker 5: An elite defensive team is because they have three elite

444
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 5: small guards at ball pressure enforcing turnovers and it allows

445
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,919
Speaker 5: it just lifts pressure off of guys like mclaugh and

446
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 5: Washington to compete with bigs down low. It just released

447
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 5: pressure from the interior defense of the defensive rebounding weakness.

448
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:22,439
Speaker 5: So it's so frustrating not getting these injury updates, Like

449
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 5: I even have some sources and it's like, we don't

450
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,680
Speaker 5: we don't know, like we're gonna check on Duke Miles's knee.

451
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 5: But if Vanderbilt is at full strength one thousand percent

452
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 5: live to make a final four, they are that good.

453
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 5: And maybe these extra on ball reps that Tanners getting

454
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 5: will will benefit him. But it bothers me when people

455
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 5: forget that context. It is very important context that the

456
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,360
Speaker 5: reason they're playing so well is that guard rotation. Now

457
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 5: they have one of the three point guards that they

458
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 5: have before.

459
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 2: All right, before we get to our best bets, don't

460
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 2: forget to sign up for Action Pro because it helps

461
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 2: you get the best bets at the best prices. Action

462
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 2: Pro users get real time alerts as soon as experts

463
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 2: like Stucky Duck.

464
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 3: Tanner, you know, Christian Duck, everybody on the team.

465
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 2: As soon as we log a pick in the app,

466
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 2: you're going to be able to get it, and a

467
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,639
Speaker 2: lot of these cases for the smaller low major hoops,

468
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 2: particularly when it comes to Duck in his totals, he

469
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 2: is a market mover, So get real time money percentages

470
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 2: to see where the smart money is flowing, and access

471
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Speaker 2: to all of our player prop tools, which are only

472
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Speaker 2: going to become more important during March because doctor Nick

473
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Speaker 2: Pair shoots in gives all of his college basketball player

474
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Speaker 2: props and he is one hundred percent in a market mover,

475
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Speaker 2: and it can be the difference between getting over twelve

476
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477
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482
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Speaker 2: All right, let's get into our best bets here. We're

483
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 2: going to go around the horn for our top plays

484
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 2: on Thursday, Friday even a couple looks on Saturday.

485
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,880
Speaker 3: But before we do, I want to throw this gauntlet

486
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 3: down for you guys.

487
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna put fifty dollars my own money on the

488
00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 2: line a home Field gift card for the next to

489
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 2: sweep their picks here on the episode, and we're also

490
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 2: going to add some some more you know prizes for

491
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,919
Speaker 2: the audience. For our listeners out there is soon to

492
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 2: be March Madness, and Duck has a special March Madness

493
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 2: of his own for listeners.

494
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 3: Duck take it away.

495
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, we really appreciate the feedback from our valued listeners.

496
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 4: You are the reason why we continue to do this show,

497
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:23,400
Speaker 4: and we love seeing the five.

498
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:24,119
Speaker 3: Star reviews come in.

499
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,159
Speaker 4: So over the next seven days, we're going to assess

500
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 4: those five star reviews. Go into wherever you listen to

501
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 4: your podcasts, Apple, Spotify, Google podcasts, wherever that might be.

502
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 4: Leave a five star review. You can say whatever you

503
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 4: want in the comments, but I'm going to select a

504
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 4: winner at random, and we're going to give that person

505
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 4: a fifty dollars future of their choice. Could be a

506
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 4: conference future, a natty future, a parlay, whatever you want

507
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 4: fifty dollars on us. Go ahead and just submit those

508
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 4: reviews and excited to see what comes of that.

509
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 2: All Right, the audience you've you know, basically had their curiosity,

510
00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,119
Speaker 2: now you have their attention. With that attention, give us

511
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 2: the ugliest under on your card. Let's start on Thursday night.

512
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 2: Portland State Northern Arizona, Big Sky Under. Lots of bricks,

513
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 2: lots of slow it down, put the finger back up,

514
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 2: Let's run a new play here, reset the shotcock, all

515
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 2: of that, everything that you need for some underporn to

516
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 2: cash talk me through a duck.

517
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Big Sky unders are such seat of your

518
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 4: pants watches. It's just so terrible with the lack of

519
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 4: defense played in that league. But Portland State has the

520
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 4: top defense in the Big Sky per almost everybody's mosaic

521
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 4: of metrics's metrics. When you compile those together, they're first

522
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 4: in the conference, and effective field goal percentage the top

523
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 4: defense in the league in two point and three point defense,

524
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 4: along with a real effectiveness and prowess for blocking and

525
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 4: altering shots down on the block. Northern Arizona cannot score effectively,

526
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 4: and the Lumberjacks play at the slowest pace in the conference,

527
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 4: averaging sixty three possessions per game. With this being the

528
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 4: first of back to back road he's at elevation for

529
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 4: the Vikings. They will oblige the pace here knowing they

530
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 4: have another one in Greeley at Lava on Saturday. Zach Davidson,

531
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 4: for Nau been out of the fold for a little

532
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 4: while on the offense has just been less effective without him.

533
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 4: Moore has been put on Carl Pome and Arnie Osaknik,

534
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 4: who is just they're just not as effective as players,

535
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 4: and so it's gonna be tough for Nau to operate.

536
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 4: These two played a sixty two possession game back on

537
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 4: in mid January. It was a sixty three to fifty

538
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 4: two finals, So we kind of have a little proof

539
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 4: of concept here for how this one's going to go.

540
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 4: As long as Portland State can keep Nau off the

541
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 4: foul line in this one, we should see a ton

542
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 4: of empty possessions for the Lumberjacks and this game should

543
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 4: trend heavy to the under. So with the projection of

544
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 4: one thirty seven and a half or so, we're going

545
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 4: to dive in on the under.

546
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 2: I'm gonna stick on Thursday for a projected Onderson at

547
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,479
Speaker 2: about one hundred and twenty six and a half between

548
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 2: Merist and mary Mack two Turtles facing off and north

549
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: the enover Mary Mack under Joe Gallop, by the way,

550
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 2: one of the most reliably slow teams in the entire country,

551
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 2: and his zone defense morphs to defend the three point

552
00:23:58,520 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: arc better than any team.

553
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: Really.

554
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: The low major level team shoot below thirty percent from

555
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 2: deep against Galileow zone, and they only make five point

556
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 2: three triples per game, which is the fourth lowest total

557
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 2: in all of college hoops. Their loan issue though, is

558
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,239
Speaker 2: rebounding on both ends of the floor, and then their

559
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 2: first meeting with Maris, the Red Foxes grab twelve offensive rebounds.

560
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 2: It could be fifteen or twenty if they're not careful.

561
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 2: But on the other side of things, Maris is elite defensively,

562
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 2: the best in the MAC forty seventh nationally permea third

563
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 2: in effective field goal percentage defense. I think this really

564
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: just comes down to the whistles, because if you look

565
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,959
Speaker 2: at these two teams, they're both top twenty in Charity

566
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 2: Stripe conversion rate, and I think that can be the

567
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 2: difference here. You don't want to give out those free,

568
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 2: you know, points with the clock stop, so if I

569
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 2: can get away with you know, let's call it thirty

570
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 2: foul shots total in this game. I think we're going

571
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,159
Speaker 2: to go under the one twenty six and a half.

572
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: I'm going to go ahead there in a low scoring MAC,

573
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 2: I wouldn't say battle. It's going to be a defensive

574
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 2: slog for sure. All right, Christian, I want to hear

575
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 2: your first play. You're actually going to Friday. Talk to

576
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 2: me about.

577
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 5: Slow Saint Louis up to twenty fourth and ken Palm.

578
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 5: The one loss in the season in was a one

579
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 5: point lost to Stanford. Not only are they beating everyone

580
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 5: in the Atlantic ten, they're crushing everyone. They've only had

581
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 5: a couple of close games in the month of January.

582
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 5: Now you're going to play the worst team in the conference,

583
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 5: and Kempom has us at twenty two. When you look

584
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 5: at they beat Lasal by twenty four, they'd be dating

585
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 5: by thirty one. They beat Saint vonavent on the road

586
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 5: by twenty five, they'd beat Richmond at home by twenty five,

587
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 5: they beat Fordham by twenty.

588
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 1: You get the point. Whatever this line opens at.

589
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 5: I just think that it's going to be too small,

590
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 5: and I don't think, uh, this is just a spot

591
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 5: where I want to back Saint Louis. They're so good,

592
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 5: they're so fun, and it's like a by game for them.

593
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 5: I don't care if it's on the road.

594
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: Like this is. There's levels to this. This is like

595
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: if the name wasn't.

596
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 5: Saint Louis, if this was Saint John's going to Loyola

597
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 5: right now, right like, that's there. Those teams are next

598
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 5: to each other on Kempom. I would be happy to

599
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 5: lay twenty two with Saint John's. So I would play

600
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 5: this up to thirty blowout.

601
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: All right, Duck for your next game, it's going back

602
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 2: in time to Thursday. This is kind of a great

603
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 2: sample case for when people ask me how deep do

604
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: you get into college basketball? If they're at NBA fans like, oh,

605
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 2: I like a good Nick Laker game. I like a

606
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 2: good Slukis versus Purple Aces Thursday night snoozer.

607
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 3: I assume that you're on the under here, yeah.

608
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 4: And we might get a bit of an elevated total here.

609
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 4: The projected total is one thirty nine between Southern Illinois

610
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 4: and Evansville. And Evansville just played Illinois State to an

611
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 4: eighty eight to eighty decision, and Southern Illinois has had

612
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 4: back to back higher scoring affairs against Murray State in

613
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 4: Indiana State. But this game should be a slog. What

614
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 4: we have here are the two worst offenses in the

615
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 4: Missouri Valley Conference. Southern Illinois ranks tenth per Kenpom in

616
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 4: the Missouri Valley in offensive efficiency. Evansville ranks eleventh. Evansville

617
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 4: struggles with turnovers on the offensive end. They turn the

618
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 4: ball over twenty one percent of overall possessions. And I

619
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 4: look at Scott and Aggie and the Sulukis group. They

620
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 4: have a fairly aggressive defense and should force Evansville kind

621
00:26:58,359 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 4: of deep into the pit here on this end of

622
00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 4: the floor. It could be really tough for the Aces

623
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 4: to handle the pressure, and we should see plenty of

624
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 4: empty trips for them on this end. When I look

625
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 4: at Evansville, they do not want to play fast. These

626
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 4: guys have throttled down their pace significantly in league play.

627
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 4: In the last month of the season, only overtime games

628
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 4: against Bradley and Valparaiso have eclipsed sixty seven total possessions,

629
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 4: and we've seen games play at sixty three, sixty two,

630
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 4: and fifty eight possessions played. Southern Illinois held Northern Iowa

631
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 4: to fifty points and Illinois State to fifty and this

632
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 4: defense has the ability to hold Evansville to a similar number.

633
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: Here.

634
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 4: I look at Southern Illinois and Evansville in the battles

635
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 4: played under Scott Naggi in twenty twenty one's the Sulukis

636
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 4: were one to one. Those games finished sixty three to

637
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 4: fifty eight and sixty eight to fifty nine. I think

638
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 4: we get that here. I think this total is gonna

639
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 4: come out about five to seven points too high, and

640
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 4: you're gonna want to be on the under in this one, all.

641
00:27:56,359 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: Right, I'm going to Friday night Mac matchuppe to get.

642
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 3: Close to thirteen.

643
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,120
Speaker 2: Some of these projections are given the minute met thirteen

644
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,199
Speaker 2: points at Akron, and I'm going to pair it up

645
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 2: with the same game parlay, also going with the over

646
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 2: sitting at about one sixty three, one sixty four. The

647
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 2: Mini Men that have been a team that have been

648
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 2: on the CUSP all season long, they've lost by more

649
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 2: than two possessions once all season long. If you take

650
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 2: out that ten point loss on an off shooting night

651
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: against Kent, there are other nine losses this season have

652
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 2: come by three point four points. Per game near misses

653
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: against Marshall, Charleston, Ohio, Miami, Ohio Coastal all good teams

654
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 2: that will play some variation of postseason basketball, and U

655
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,919
Speaker 2: Mass uses tempo their top fifty there, they use the

656
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: three ball, they can get on the offensive glass and

657
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 2: get second chance opportunities. Their guards like Banks and Parker

658
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 2: are both around forty percent from three point range, and

659
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,959
Speaker 2: Leo batol Is he's playing like an all MAC you know,

660
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: front court player.

661
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 3: So it's there's a lot to like about this team.

662
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 2: I feel like they've been a little bit snake bit

663
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 2: in one possession games, and I think that this being

664
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 2: a double digit number against an ACRON team, I think

665
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 2: is a little bit too much respect. I think it's

666
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 2: based too much on their season long resume, because when

667
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: you look at the Zips recently, their.

668
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 3: Offense just hasn't been clicking.

669
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 2: They failed to reach seventy points in three straight games,

670
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 2: which is the only time that's happened all season long.

671
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: So they return home here against an up tempo team

672
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 2: with a blow average defense in U Mass. I think

673
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 2: it's going to be an up and down game. I

674
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 2: don't think I'm as worried about the total as I

675
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 2: potentially about Akron maybe everything firing on all cylinders and

676
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 2: then winning.

677
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 3: This game by twenty.

678
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 2: But if you can get you five to two or

679
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 2: better on the same game parlay, I think this is

680
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: going to be a fun game. I think Akron gets

681
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 2: close to twenty points in transition and it'll just come

682
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 2: down to UMass being able to bury the three ball

683
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: on the road. But I think there's solid value in

684
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: taking a team that is a lot of fun to watch.

685
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 2: It's going to be a beautiful brand of basketball. If

686
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 2: you want a little bit of a palette cleanser, a chaser.

687
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 2: After taking all those unders with Duck on Thursday, I

688
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 2: think this is the way you should go on Friday.

689
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: All right, Christian, you're looking forward to Saturday with two games.

690
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: Do you want to start at Missoo Texas or Iowa

691
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 2: State Kansas.

692
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 5: I'll start with Miszoo Texas mentioned them in the bubble

693
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 5: section of the team I want to see dance, and

694
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 5: Duck pointed out that Ken Palm hasn't projected only to

695
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 5: win one game the rest of the season, just with

696
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 5: this gauntlet of an st schedule. They're projected right now

697
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 5: to lose by one to Texas tonight. As of recording,

698
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 5: Missoo's got a tough one at A and m Texas

699
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 5: is off this week. Texas will enter this one with

700
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 5: off three straight wins and like I said, getting that by.

701
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 1: But when I look at these.

702
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 5: Two teams, I see two teams who excel in similar

703
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 5: areas in terms of crashing the offensive glass and get

704
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 5: into the free throw line. Big athletic, strong teams that

705
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 5: are offensive minded. But what's interesting to be about MISSOO

706
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 5: is under Dennis Gates. Something wild about Dennis Gates. Dating

707
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 5: back to me he's at Cleveland State, they were outside

708
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 5: the top three hundred in defensive rebounder percentage whether he

709
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 5: was at Cleveland State, whether he was at Massoo. And

710
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 5: mind you, he made the tournament three of those six

711
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 5: years I'm speaking of. So it's like, what is up

712
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 5: with this dude? Why can't his team's defensive rebound This

713
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 5: year they're at one hundred fifty fifth in the country,

714
00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 5: which is a huge increase. And if you filter how

715
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 5: Miszoo has been guarding in SEC play, they're the fourth

716
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 5: best defense in SEC play. The offense is dropped down

717
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 5: to twelve. But personnel wise, like Mark Mitchell's whether you

718
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 5: like the aesthetics of his game or not. And trust me,

719
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 5: it's taken time for me to come around on him.

720
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 5: Like I would just like to go against him. He

721
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 5: leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists. He's top

722
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 5: thirty in the nation in free thiry. He sucks to

723
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 5: play against. He's a matchup problem. Jayden Stone's one of

724
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 5: the best stories in the country to me, you know,

725
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 5: coming over from that Detroit Mercy team that won one game.

726
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: He's a really good scorer. Trent Pierce the sniper, Jacob Cruz,

727
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: the sniper.

728
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 5: Anthony Robinson at NBA Buzz going to the season is

729
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 5: a beast defensively, and I like what TiO Berrer isn't.

730
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: I just think they got a lot of dudes. They

731
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 1: got good players, they're defending better, and at home against

732
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 1: a team like Texas can't bully Miszoo right in the

733
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 1: way that like Texas bullied, say a Vanderbilt when Texas

734
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 1: won that game by sixteen, right, and like for even

735
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: with the extra rest for Texas, I just think it

736
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 1: sets up nicely for Maszoo to you know, they know

737
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: the situation, they know that they're trying to get to

738
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: the tournament, and when you play a team similarly ranked

739
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: at home, that's the one you got to get in

740
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 1: a good environment. I'm comfortable back in the Tigers. There

741
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: should be close to a pick them. I'd lay anything

742
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 1: up to a possession, all.

743
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 3: Right, Zuck Miami of Ohio. We've talked a lot in

744
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 3: recent weeks about them.

745
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 2: They finally got off of that roller coaster where they

746
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 2: were digging themselves.

747
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 3: Holes or sneaking out wins they get in.

748
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 2: See the SBC MAC Challenge against Marshall, blow the doors

749
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: off the Thundering Herd. Now they come back Friday night

750
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: at home game against Ohio. But you think maybe they're

751
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 2: giving away too many points in this one.

752
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 4: I do you know an old football rivalry between these two,

753
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 4: the battle for the bricks, and this is going to

754
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 4: be one that Ohio really shows up for. The projected

755
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 4: spread is Ohio catching thirteen and a half or so,

756
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 4: And I really think we're going to want to be

757
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 4: on the bobs in this situation. We know Miami is

758
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 4: going to get everybody's best shot, and the RedHawks have

759
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 4: played really tight in their last five games in league play.

760
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 4: We saw a three point win against Buffalo in a

761
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 4: game that went to ot Miami trailed a good portion

762
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 4: of the way. And that one a six point win

763
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 4: against Kent State that also an overtime affair. They trailed

764
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 4: by five with two minutes to go. A two point

765
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 4: win against U mass a team that you like. In

766
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 4: a game that Miami was down by double digits in

767
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 4: the first half and they never led by more than seven.

768
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 4: And then you and I were watching this one together.

769
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 4: Miami played Northern Illinois, a real bad Northern Illinois team. Yeah,

770
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 4: they won by twenty four, but they were down by

771
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 4: ten in the first half and they were trailing with

772
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 4: eleven minutes to go. They did scraped together a thirty

773
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 4: eight to nine run the rest of the way. But

774
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 4: Ohio is not going to give that up. And I

775
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,239
Speaker 4: look at Ohio. They've got some shooters. John Simmons can

776
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 4: score fifteen to twenty points on any given night. Pavelski

777
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 4: really good at creating and getting open shots and getting

778
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 4: to the foul line. Aiden Halloway, aj Sheldon, just guys

779
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 4: who can score the basketball and match Miami and what

780
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 4: they want to do on the offensive end. I think

781
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 4: Ohio is going to be able to effectively defend well

782
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 4: in the painted area. Miami is a really beautiful offense

783
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 4: to watch, but they're not exceptionally strong in the paint

784
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 4: and if shots aren't falling, this could be one that's

785
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 4: really really tight laid here. So thirteen or so, you

786
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,280
Speaker 4: want to back Ohio in this situation.

787
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 1: I said Aiden Holloway. For a second, I'm like, that's it.

788
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 1: It's a good mid season pickup for a all right.

789
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: On Saturday, the Nashville Showdown talk about a random matchup

790
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 2: between an ACC and Big ten school. But Virginia is

791
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 2: playing the Ohio State Buckeyes in Nashville. They're lying anything

792
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 2: below two possessions, four and a half, five, five and

793
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 2: a half. I think is a play here. I unabashedly

794
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 2: love Ryan Odum Dude as the winner. You know, from

795
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 2: Leonore Ryan to U NBC, the Utah State BCU. He

796
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 2: arrives his team's win. They're ultra competitive on both ends

797
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 2: of the floor. There's not necessarily kind of a gimmicky

798
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: calling card from a tempo or trapping or you know,

799
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 2: offensive you know, scheme standpoint. They're just well buttoned up everywhere.

800
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:51,839
Speaker 2: They're so disciplined in the half court too. They don't

801
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 2: take a lot of bad shots, four starters averaging double digits.

802
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 3: They're super aggressive on the glass. I think that certainly

803
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 3: helps in you know, what you've seen in the past month.

804
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 2: They haven't shot the bowl particularly well, but that offensive

805
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 2: rebounding has really allowed them to stabilize their scoring. De

806
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 2: Ritter has it all offensively, you know, and with shooters

807
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 2: around him when they collapse in he can make them

808
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 2: pay by passing the ball out. But really, to me,

809
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 2: in this particular spot against the Buckeyes, it comes down

810
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 2: to the Wahoo's defense. They're just fantastic, their top ten

811
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 2: in effective field goal percentage defense.

812
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 3: They rarely send teams.

813
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 2: To the line, and they're finally rebounding up to Odem's

814
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 2: standard on the defensive glass. He's brought this up multiple

815
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 2: times in the last few pressers.

816
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:28,439
Speaker 3: Ohio State.

817
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,919
Speaker 2: By the way, on the other side, there's only one

818
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 2: win on their whole resume that really impresses me, and

819
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 2: that was that win over UCLA.

820
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 3: They did it at home, They shot fifty three percent

821
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 3: from the field.

822
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 2: They also went to twenty for twenty five from the

823
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 2: charity straight So how much is that something that they

824
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 2: can replicate particularly on a neutral floor. When Mobile and

825
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 2: Royal are bombit in three's, they can beat people, and

826
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 2: I'm interested in them catching points as a home dog.

827
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 2: But when you're asking me on a neutral floor against

828
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 2: an elite three point defense in the.

829
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 3: Wahoo's, I just don't see it.

830
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 2: I'm going to go ahead with the Cavaliers here, like

831
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,080
Speaker 2: I said, up to the edge of two possessions.

832
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 3: Any thoughts there, Christian, He's kind of been your beat.

833
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,439
Speaker 5: Not really, Honestly, I was locked in on this Iowa

834
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 5: State Kansas can I was about to.

835
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 2: Talk about all right, but Firewhite, Yeah, talk to me,

836
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 2: because I think this takes a lot of intestinal fortitude

837
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 2: to come right back to the Cyclones in a spot

838
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 2: like this, particularly with Kansas flying high and assuming.

839
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 3: They get Peterson back. But walk me through why you

840
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 3: like Iowa State and coach OTTs.

841
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I was Stay's won three straight years over

842
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 5: Kansas at home, haven't lost at home this year. And

843
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 5: to me, what's so interesting about Iowa State is, you know, metrically,

844
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 5: there have been periods of time where they've ranked as

845
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 5: like a top three offense in the sport, and then

846
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 5: there's in their last two games, I tweeted out this

847
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 5: stat non Milan mam Chilovich Iowa State players are two

848
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 5: of eighteen combined from deep in those last two losses.

849
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 1: When things get bogged down the half court. Yes, taman

850
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,240
Speaker 1: Lipsey can make threes. Yes, Josha Jefferson can make threes,

851
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 1: Mom Chilo.

852
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 5: It sometimes feels like he's the only shooter on the team, right,

853
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 5: the guy who if he catches the ball and he's

854
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:07,279
Speaker 5: open on the premier like it's going up. But I

855
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 5: Away State looks best when they are out in transition,

856
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 5: right when those guys like like Bateman or Torure can

857
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 5: can get involved knocking down those streets. But defensively, like

858
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 5: you know, they scored fifty five points against TCO. I

859
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 5: understand Kansas has been great defensively. Obviously, they were great

860
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 5: defensively in their eighty four sixty three went over I

861
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,359
Speaker 5: was state. They've won every game since in the past month,

862
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 5: but really really difficult place to go play. And like

863
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 5: in that Arizona game, as Duck pointed out, got got

864
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 5: a little health.

865
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 1: With the refs.

866
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 5: You know, Flory was brilliant and Melvin Counsel was doing

867
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 5: some Melvin Council things, you know, just getting to the line,

868
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 5: are beating everyone down the floor in transition. Like that

869
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 5: kind of stuff doesn't happen against Iowa State. I can't

870
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 5: see Melvin Council alone creating for himself against the Siaway

871
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 5: State defense. I think I always take to win this

872
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 5: game by double digits. With or without Darren Peterson. I'm

873
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 5: all cyclones. I would lay up to six.

874
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:58,800
Speaker 2: Now, before we get out of here, we're going to

875
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 2: run through our best bets of the show, our favorite

876
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,760
Speaker 2: play from mid weekend. Duck pulled a fast one sneaky.

877
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 2: He kept this one on the side. He's saying it

878
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 2: could possibly be his favorite play of the entire week.

879
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 2: Talk me through a Sunbelt total between South Alabama and

880
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,240
Speaker 2: Southern mess and we're.

881
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 4: Not even gonna make you call the one nine hundred

882
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 4: number for this one. We're gonna give it out here

883
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 4: on the show South Alabama and Southern miss The projected

884
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 4: total is one thirty eight. South Alabama has one of

885
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 4: the most efficient and effective defenses in the Sunbelt, one

886
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 4: that's just consistently able to frustrate its opponents. Richie Riley

887
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 4: throws out this junk two three zone and it really

888
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 4: frustrates teams that can't shoot over the top. Southern Miss

889
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 4: is going to counter with a middling tempo. These guys

890
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 4: cannot shoot the three ball twenty nine percent successful three

891
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 4: point rate in league play, the worst in the conference

892
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 4: by wide margin. To make matters worse, the Golden Eagles,

893
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 4: they don't secure offensive rebounds. The result is going to

894
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 4: be them having to be methodical, getting deep into the

895
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,240
Speaker 4: possession clock, having to chuck up a highly contested three

896
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 4: that's a low percentage shot, and then getting back on

897
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 4: d the other way. South Alabama, they are going to

898
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 4: play at one of the slowest tempos in the conference

899
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 4: and in the country three twentieth nationally and tempo are

900
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 4: the Jags. These guys have really missed Peyton Law, who's

901
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 4: been out of the mix for some time with injury.

902
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 4: In the offense has just been stressed as a result.

903
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 4: I look at South Alabama. They're not going to crash

904
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 4: the glass here in this one, and the Jaguars are

905
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 4: one of the worst shooting teams in the entire Sun

906
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 4: Belt Conference. Southern Miss has the third most effective defense

907
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 4: since Sun Belt play started per kenpom Per his aggregate

908
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 4: efficiency metrics on defense and South Alabama is the second

909
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 4: most efficient defense in the Sun Belt. This one pits

910
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 4: two teams that are going to have to be methodical

911
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 4: on the offensive end. They're both going to have to

912
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 4: rely on settling for contested threes deep into the possession clock,

913
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 4: and that is not what these teams want to do.

914
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,240
Speaker 4: South Alabama's three point rate is two ninety third nationally.

915
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 4: Southern miss is three fifty third and three point rates.

916
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 4: So these teams are going to have to operate at

917
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 4: a way they're not accustomed to. You're not gonna see

918
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 4: a lot of foul shots. You're not gonna see a

919
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 4: lot of activity in the post. This is going to

920
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 4: be played at sixty two to sixty four total possessions.

921
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:11,959
Speaker 4: I will be stunned if either one of these teams

922
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 4: reaches seventy. So at a projected total of one thirty eight,

923
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 4: this is my favorite play of the weekend.

924
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,240
Speaker 2: All right, I'm gonna throw in my under on Marist

925
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 2: and Mary mac is one hundred and twenty three total

926
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 2: points in their first meeting, forty nine foul shots in

927
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 2: that game. This is going to be a defensive clinic

928
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 2: for Marist, certainly from Joe Gallo, I know what I'm getting, slow,

929
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 2: slow tempo. I wouldn't be shocked if this tapped out

930
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: at like one hundred and twelve points.

931
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 3: It's it's something.

932
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: Where if we don't get the super folithon in the

933
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 2: last ninety seconds, where they're just a parade of foul

934
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 2: shooters going back and forth and some of those garbage points.

935
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 2: I think this one is also one of my favorite

936
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 2: totals for the entire week. Christian, you're gonna close this

937
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 2: up just reiterating your point on Iowa State.

938
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, one last point on this game. Kansas on the

939
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 1: road in Big twelve play, lost at UCF, lost at

940
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 1: West Virginia. You go it be Colorado and Kansas State,

941
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 1: two of the easiest road games in the league. Then

942
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 1: you got to play Texas Tech without Christian Anderson and

943
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:08,959
Speaker 1: you should have lost that game by double digits. Texas

944
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,439
Speaker 1: Tech was up ten, you know, late in that game.

945
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: So this is I mean, this league is so insane.

946
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: The Kansas Houston, Iowa State Arizona BYU Texas Tech having

947
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,240
Speaker 1: I was about to say this is like the hardest

948
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 1: road game in it. I would maybe put it second

949
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 1: after Kansas themselves, but Kansas can't go play themselves. So

950
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: this is the toughest road game that they've got all

951
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: year in my opinion, And I just think stylistically, Iowa State,

952
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 1: can you know, make Kansas have to You got to

953
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 1: hit threes to be to Iowa State, right, you got

954
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: to be able to hit those skip passes and take

955
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 1: advantage of that aggressive defense and still super trust Kansas shooting.

956
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 1: If bryceon Tiller knocks down five threes or Trey White

957
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 1: knocks down five threes, like, so be it.

958
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 5: But I think Iowa State, I'm excited to lay the

959
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 5: points with them. I think this is a statement win

960
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:56,760
Speaker 5: for them.

961
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,919
Speaker 2: All, right, Cyclones laying the points Jags Golden Eagles under

962
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 2: about one thirty nine, one thirty eight there out of

963
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 2: the sun Belt, and then my Marris Merrimack under a

964
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 2: one twenty six.

965
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 3: And a half.

966
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 2: Put it all together, should get about six to one

967
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 2: on your money, those are our best plays.

968
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 3: If you go ahead and parlay them together, that'll do it.

969
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 2: For this episode of the Big Bets on Campus podcast,

970
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 2: my special thanks to Duck and Christian for joining me.

971
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 2: Don't miss the BBOC weekend preview with Stucky, Greg and

972
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 2: Jim on Friday mornings. The three man leave earlier in

973
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,319
Speaker 2: the week as well on Mondays and then of course

974
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 2: our live show is back and better than ever, so

975
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 2: make sure to check us out on YouTube, subscribe like

976
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 2: leave us a five star rating, interview wherever you can

977
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 2: so you don't miss out on anything that we produce

978
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 2: here the Big Bets on Campus podcast, and as always,

979
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:39,799
Speaker 2: best of luck with all your bets we'll see at

980
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 2: the window.

981
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly.

982
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

983
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

984
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:08,240
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler