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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Day BAQ podcast available every morning on Apple,

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Speaker 2: Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the sixth of

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Speaker 2: September in London. I'm Caroline Hepki.

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Speaker 3: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up.

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Speaker 4: Today's US jobs data could set the tone for rate

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Speaker 4: cuts as the Federal Reserves Austin Gilsby warns of rising unemployment.

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Speaker 2: France's new prime Minister Michelle Barnier makes overtures to Lapenn's

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Speaker 2: national rally.

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Speaker 4: Plus exclusive reporting from Bloomberg that the UK Labor Party's

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Speaker 4: top fundraiser has been advising on appointees for public posts.

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Speaker 3: We have the details.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 4: Traders are preparing for US jobs data that may determine

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Speaker 4: the size of a FED rate cut this month. Forecasters

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Speaker 4: expect the August report to show a bounce in hiring

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Speaker 4: and a tick lower in the unemployment rate after July's

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Speaker 4: softer data spooked markets, the media, and estimate in the

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Survey of economists shows payrolls probably rose by one

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Speaker 4: hundred and sixty five thousand last month, following July's increase

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Speaker 4: of one hundred and fourteen thousand, unemployment is predicted to

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Speaker 4: have added down to four point two percent. That report

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Speaker 4: out at one thirty pm London time. We'll have live

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Speaker 4: coverage across the terminal and on Bloomberg Radio Chicago.

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Speaker 2: FED President Austin Goulsby says that he has seen mounting

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Speaker 2: warning signs from the labor market, but more favorable inflation readings.

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Speaker 2: Speaking to Dale Jones' market Watch, Gulesby said it's pretty

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Speaker 2: clear that the path is not just rate cuts soon,

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Speaker 2: but multiple cuts over the next twelve months. That sentiment

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Speaker 2: was echoed by billionaire investor John Paulson, who told Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Sonali Bassak that the FED waited too long to ease

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Speaker 2: and he now expects significant rate reductions over the coming year.

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Speaker 5: Inflation now is somewhere around three percent. Interest rates are

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Speaker 5: five percent, so real interest rates are too hot. So

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Speaker 5: that FED I think waited too long to bring interest

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Speaker 5: rates down. So I think the likely course of action

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Speaker 5: is going forward is the FED will start to cut

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Speaker 5: interest rates.

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Speaker 6: What should they be by the end of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 5: It's difficult to predict, but my best guess would be

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Speaker 5: around three percent, perhaps two and a half percent.

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Speaker 2: Well, you can hear the full interview with John Paulson,

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Speaker 2: who's talked about as a potential Treasury secretary if Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump wins the presidency on the Bloomberg Talks podcasts, All

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Speaker 2: your key conversations in one place.

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump says he would cut the corporate tax rate

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Speaker 4: and slash regulations, as he pitched his economic agenda to

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Speaker 4: Wall Street and Corporate Leader is at the Economic Club

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Speaker 4: of New York.

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Speaker 7: To further support the revival of American manufacturing, my plan

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Speaker 7: calls for expanded R and D tax credits, one hundred

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Speaker 7: percent bonus appreciation expensing for new manufacturing investments, and a

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Speaker 7: reduction in the corporate tax rate from twenty one percent

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Speaker 7: to fifteen percent, surely for companies that make their product

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Speaker 7: in America.

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Speaker 4: Trump's proposal is a stark contrast to come on the

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Speaker 4: Harris's vision for corporate taxes. The Democratic presidential nominee has

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Speaker 4: called to increase the corporate rate to twenty eight percent.

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Speaker 4: Trump also vowed to establish a task force to review

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Speaker 4: federal expenditure, headed by Elon Musk. The Tesla and SpaceX

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Speaker 4: CEO has endorsed the Republican nominee and previously pitched the

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Speaker 4: idea to the former president Well.

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Speaker 2: The European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates

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Speaker 2: every quarter despite a weaker economy. That according to a

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Speaker 2: poll of analysts who don't think that the central Bank

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Speaker 2: will speed up reductions in order to bolster growth. Respondents

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Speaker 2: expect the European deposit rate to be lowered from three

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Speaker 2: point seventy five percent to three and a half percent

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Speaker 2: at next week's ECB meeting, following the initial cut that

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Speaker 2: we saw in June, and for the ECB to cut

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Speaker 2: steadily to two and a half percent by next September.

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Speaker 4: France's new prime minister has made a plea to the

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Speaker 4: country's factions to work together as he seeks to build

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Speaker 4: support in parliament. Michelle Baignier has promised to focus on

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Speaker 4: issues including security and reducing migration, seen as a nod

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Speaker 4: to the priorities of the far right. The former e

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Speaker 4: Brexit negotiator also said France must confront the difficult truths

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Speaker 4: about its public finances.

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Speaker 8: We will act more than talk. We'll try to find

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Speaker 8: solutions coming from everywhere. The government will not pretend to

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Speaker 8: have a superior knowledge. I have learned in my long

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Speaker 8: public life that good ideas come from everywhere, often from

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Speaker 8: the bottom, the most humble of people, when you take

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Speaker 8: the time to listen to them.

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Speaker 4: That's Fin's Prime Minister Michelle Baargnier speaking through a translator.

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Speaker 4: He'll now have to construct a cabinet which can unite

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Speaker 4: the left, right and centrist blocks in Parliament, none of

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Speaker 4: which have a majority. His next task will be to

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Speaker 4: finalize a budget before the start of next month.

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Speaker 2: Here in the UK, a top labor fundraiser who has

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Speaker 2: advised the party on appointments for public posts, According to

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Speaker 2: people familiar with the matter, who say that staff have

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Speaker 2: raised concerns about the situation. Bloomberg's tiba Adebayo has more well.

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Speaker 9: He Ali is a labor lord, donor and TV mogul,

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Speaker 9: but it's the role he's reportedly playing in public appointments

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Speaker 9: that's worrying insiders. Sources say, Ali, previously the party's chair

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Speaker 9: of general election fundraising, has been working with senior officials

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Speaker 9: to source candidates in a project he's dubbed Operation Integrity.

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Speaker 9: One person says members made their unease about the same

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Speaker 9: individual soliciting donations and advising on appointments known to senior

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Speaker 9: figures to no avail. However, a Downing Street official said

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Speaker 9: Earli played no part in public appointments or cabinet formation

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Speaker 9: and denied knowledge of any complaints made against him. The

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Speaker 9: news comes after Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised a total

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Speaker 9: crackdown on cronyism if his party got back into government

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Speaker 9: at the beginning of twenty twenty four in London, tiwa

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Speaker 9: ad A Bayo Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 4: Hong Kong is keeping its stock market closed today is

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Speaker 4: a typhoon nears the region. Trading on the country's four

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Speaker 4: point nine trillion dollar exchange was canceled after the city's

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Speaker 4: weather bureau extended a typhoon signal eight warning until early afternoon.

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Speaker 4: But this is likely to be the last time a

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Speaker 4: weather event stops trading in Hong Kong, as the city

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Speaker 4: elected last year to end its decades long practice of

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Speaker 4: shutting markets during severe storms. It comes as Hong Kong

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Speaker 4: battles to improve the appeal of its flagging stock market,

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Speaker 4: with the benchmark Hang Sang Index down more than five

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Speaker 4: percent over the past twelve months, underperforming global peers.

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Speaker 3: In a moment more on the pivotal.

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Speaker 4: Jobs report expected today out of the US, plus details

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Speaker 4: about what the French Prime Minister is going to be

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Speaker 4: facing in his new job. One of the story that

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Speaker 4: caughtry this morning from our at Bloomberg opinion columnist ft

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Speaker 4: Flamm looking at the question of emails and whether or

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Speaker 4: not you should respond to them when you've come back

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Speaker 4: to that avalanche of emails from holidays.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I always have too many. But it's so interesting

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Speaker 2: what fd writes about that humans like monky keys, put

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Speaker 2: hierarchy at the heart of much of what we do,

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Speaker 2: and that email is governed by the rules of dominance hierarchy. Basically,

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Speaker 2: this is kind of the central idea that social primates

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Speaker 2: are wired to sort of play these games on email,

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Speaker 2: she writes. The sender wants something from the recipient, but

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Speaker 2: it is the status of the recipient relative to the

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Speaker 2: sender that it takes, whether or not and for how

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Speaker 2: long the request can be ignored. And it also, of

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Speaker 2: course takes much more email, much more effort to manage

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Speaker 2: the emails from people who might be higher than you

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Speaker 2: in the hierarchy.

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Speaker 4: So careful about how you phrase them. The argument is

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Speaker 4: that you can just sort of fire off any old

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Speaker 4: response if you perceive someone as being lower in the

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Speaker 4: pecking order than you.

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Speaker 2: But the difficulty is when you don't know what the

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Speaker 2: status of the other person might be.

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Speaker 3: I always write you such lovely emails.

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Speaker 2: I thought the status relationship is quite anyway less of that.

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Speaker 2: You can read all about it. It's a really great piece.

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Speaker 2: If you're struggling to manage, it's your email. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: our column, miss advise is humor to deflect the tension

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Speaker 2: with any I'd.

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Speaker 3: Never do that, Caroline.

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Speaker 4: Right, Let's turn back to one of our top stories

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Speaker 4: this morning. Of course, we're looking ahead to the crucial

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Speaker 4: payrolls data today in the US, but also thinking about

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Speaker 4: what Donald Trump told the Economic Club of New York

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Speaker 4: about his plans for corporate taxes. Bimberg anchor Crittie gooptas

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Speaker 4: but across all of these stories for us, and she's

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Speaker 4: with us in studio now, and let's start with the

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Speaker 4: payrolls data, of course, a big event for markets today, Crittie,

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Speaker 4: what's the expectation. Is it really going to be the

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Speaker 4: big decider when it comes to whether or not the

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Speaker 4: faed's going to cut by fifty basis points.

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Speaker 7: It is going to be the.

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Speaker 1: Big decider and the expectations that it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a miss in the in the payrolls numbers. And this

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Speaker 1: is significant because if you look at the data deluge

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Speaker 1: of in the job's kind of sector this week, you've

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Speaker 1: seen a miss on the ADP payrolls or ADP number

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Speaker 1: E sees me, which really shows the private new hires

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Speaker 1: that you're going to see. You saw fewer than expected

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Speaker 1: job openings in the JOLT data as well. All indications

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Speaker 1: thus far are pointing to a miss on the payrolls.

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Speaker 1: You're also seeing few expected in jobless claimed, so this

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Speaker 1: is kind of pointing to the deceleration the jobs market

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Speaker 1: in all various parts of the economy, whether it comes

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Speaker 1: to job openings the private sector and now of course

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Speaker 1: not farm payrolls as well. That being said, this is

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Speaker 1: a data set that tends to surprise. So if you

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Speaker 1: look at the market reaction off of the back of it,

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Speaker 1: the one percent that it's about a one percent move

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Speaker 1: in either direction for the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 1: in the eight hours after the data so basically in

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Speaker 1: the trading session after or can quantify, it goes anywhere

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Speaker 1: from eight tens to one percent to as high as

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Speaker 1: one percent in terms of this particular data set. So

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Speaker 1: that's kind of what we're looking at. But the expectation

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Speaker 1: here is that Chair Powell has already boxed himself into

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a corner that twenty five is

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Speaker 1: what's on the cards for September. The issue is that

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Speaker 1: you're already seeing so much weakness this week when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the Beige Book, when you're coming seeing ism

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Speaker 1: data as well, arguably the services as well, that there's

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Speaker 1: a question now of whether Chair Power needs to be

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Speaker 1: considering fifty. When I say Chairpole, of course mean the

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Speaker 1: entire FMC. But this is why payrolls matters, because if

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Speaker 1: it's a severe miss off of the back of the

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Speaker 1: August panic as well, that would indicate some sort of

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Speaker 1: acceleration towards recession.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, so it'll be all the more interesting to hear

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Speaker 2: from the two very key FED speakers, Williams and Waller.

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Speaker 2: The report is out at one thirty pm London time,

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Speaker 2: so that for the August Paywell's data. Let's also talk

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Speaker 2: about Donald trump fifteen percent courtput tax Right pledge that

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Speaker 2: should get the attention of US corporations if they produce

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Speaker 2: in the US.

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Speaker 1: Yes, this is a fascinating one because it's coming right

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Speaker 1: off of the heels of his rival Kamala Harris talking

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Speaker 1: about the tax rates there as well. Look, one of

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Speaker 1: the major wins for the Trump administration his first term

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Speaker 1: was his tax plan. The tax cuts put more money

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Speaker 1: in people's wallets, whether you are a billionaire on Wall

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Speaker 1: Street or whether you are a average middle class worker

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Speaker 1: in another part of the state. It also helped a

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Speaker 1: lot of corporations and incentivized them to repatriate a lot

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Speaker 1: of cash. This was something he had campaigned upon the

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Speaker 1: first time around. It pulled up money from Asia, pulled

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Speaker 1: money from Europe, and brought it back into the States

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Speaker 1: from a corporate perspective, which had been a sticking point,

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Speaker 1: especially in the tech sector in the United States. So

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Speaker 1: he's really leaning into that success story and saying, look,

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Speaker 1: even that twenty one percent was a drop from the

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Speaker 1: previous amount, which I want to say with something like

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Speaker 1: twenty four or twenty five percent, And now he's talking

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Speaker 1: about bringing it further to fifteen. By comparison, Kamala Harris

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Speaker 1: is vouching for twenty eight percent. Joe Biden has been

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Speaker 1: pushing for much higher as well. So this is where

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Speaker 1: he's trying to kind of win votes. But he's also

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Speaker 1: making the argument here, if you have Trump tax cuts

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Speaker 1: or an extension of that which was imposed on twenty

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Speaker 1: seventeen and expires in twenty twenty five, there is a

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Speaker 1: concern around the deficit, and he's already gone ahead and said, well, actually,

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Speaker 1: I can solve that too, and I can do it

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Speaker 1: through tariffs, and I can do it through controlling immigration,

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Speaker 1: so you have less in terms of a per capita

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Speaker 1: approach as well. So his kind of budget thinking is

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Speaker 1: a little bit different that, yes, we can fund these

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Speaker 1: tax cuts despite having a deficit, and we do it

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Speaker 1: by basically penalizing for lack of a better term trade

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the world and penalizing companies that

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Speaker 1: rely on an invest on the rest of the world.

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Speaker 3: Okay, crazy, good to thank you very much for joining us. Now.

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Speaker 4: Sixty days after elections in France, the country has a

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Speaker 4: new prime minister, Michelle Barnier, has pledged to focus on

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Speaker 4: issues of importance to the far right, including security and migration.

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Speaker 4: The seventy three year old former EU bregsit negotiator was

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Speaker 4: touched by Emmanuel Macrant to be premier. We spoke to

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Speaker 4: Barney on Bloomberg Radio last year and asked him about

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Speaker 4: his future.

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Speaker 6: But next, it's not necessary to recall my age.

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Speaker 3: I was very careful too.

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Speaker 6: Yes, I know my age. I'm very realistic. So I

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Speaker 6: just want to be useful by taking part to the

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Speaker 6: debate in my country.

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Speaker 4: So that was Michelle Barnier speaking to us in June

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Speaker 4: of last year. Let's bring in Bloomberg senior editor based

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Speaker 4: in Paris, Phil's Haerafino. Good morning to you, Phil, so Barnier.

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Speaker 4: They're making a joke about his own age. Not at

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Speaker 4: my prompting, I should point out France's oldest prime minister

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Speaker 4: in the modern politically, are are taking over from the youngest.

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Speaker 4: What kind of prime minister will he make? What does

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Speaker 4: he stand for?

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Speaker 10: Well, you know, he's a center right politician with a

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Speaker 10: long history in government and politics, as he alluded to there,

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Speaker 10: and presumably Macron sees him as a safe pair of hands,

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Speaker 10: a calming influence who can bring people together. There was

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Speaker 10: some reporting that Macron sees him as the least divisive

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Speaker 10: option in a time when French politics is very divided.

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Speaker 10: He's not likely to win over anyone on the left,

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Speaker 10: but he's the kind of person who can work with

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Speaker 10: Macron's centrist party, Barney's own center right party, the Republicans,

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Speaker 10: and the far right. So Macron is betting that that

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Speaker 10: will allow him to do what needs to be done

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Speaker 10: to get France moving in the right direction.

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Speaker 2: And he does have a lot to do to form

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Speaker 2: a cabinet, to speak to parliament. There's the twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: five budget. What will his parties be.

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Speaker 10: The budget is absolutely the number one situation that he

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Speaker 10: has to deal with. I mean, first he has to

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Speaker 10: he does have to appoint a cabinet, and that presumably

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Speaker 10: is going to happen imminently. He doesn't have time to wait.

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Speaker 10: You know, the budget process has to be sort of

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Speaker 10: wrapped up in early October. The EU has begun an

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Speaker 10: excessive deficit procedure against France. So France really needs to

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Speaker 10: show that it's getting its budget situation under control, and

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Speaker 10: that is going to be just a real battle because

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Speaker 10: on the left, you know, the Left coalition, which won

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Speaker 10: the most seats in parliament, they want a big increase

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Speaker 10: in spending and you know, Macron's view has been that

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Speaker 10: that's just not possible. There has to be big budget cuts,

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Speaker 10: so that's going to be absolutely the number one priority.

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Speaker 4: Phil in the parliamentary maths is difficult though, from Michelle

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Speaker 4: Baruniy no group has a majority in parliament. How is

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Speaker 4: he going to be able to get laws pasted? Who

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Speaker 4: is he going to need to support him?

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Speaker 10: One thing he'll need is the far right, and you

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Speaker 10: know it's sort of marine Leapen's National Rally Party has

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Speaker 10: sort of been toxic, even though they are the third

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Speaker 10: largest party in parliament. But it's gotten to the point

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Speaker 10: now where if you want to get legislation passed, there's

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Speaker 10: going there's going to need to be an understanding with them.

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Speaker 10: You're going to have to Barney is going to have

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Speaker 10: to seek their support. And you noticed when he made

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Speaker 10: his initial comments yesterday he talked of by the issues

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Speaker 10: that are important to La Pens, such as immigration, so

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Speaker 10: he's sort of reaching out to them. Between the Centrists

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Speaker 10: that Macron represents, Barnier's own center right party, and the

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Speaker 10: far right, presumably there would be enough votes, but there

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Speaker 10: are a lot of egos at play and a lot

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Speaker 10: of conflicting conflicting views. So that's really the left seems

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Speaker 10: to be. They're going to oppose almost anything he does

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Speaker 10: on the budget, so that that's going to have to

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Speaker 10: be the coalition he built with the far right.

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Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief the stories

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Speaker 4: making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hipka and I'm Stephen Carol.

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Speaker 4: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

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Speaker 4: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak

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Speaker 4: Europe