1 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you Welcome to the Monday 2 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is 3 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: Matt Perrault and welcome to Championship Monday for the National 4 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: Championship Game. You guys can follow me on Twitter at 5 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: sports Talk Matt. Every morning here on the Daily Juice Podcast. 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: We are here on Bettingpros dot com and always being 7 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. Okay, yikes, this is 8 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 1: not where I want to be today. And we went 9 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: oh into yesterday one and two on the prop bets, 10 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: so not good. Another down day and it's been That 11 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: was a really rough weekend, and I thought this might 12 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,480 Speaker 1: be the revenge of the public. I thought the public 13 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: would do really well this weekend after everything being really 14 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: negative in November and December. I thought, man, this might 15 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: be no no, no, no, no no. Books did very 16 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: very well. And the Pittsburgh Steelers, yikes. Everything yesterday was 17 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 1: riding on the Steelers. I thought there was no way 18 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: in hell they'd lose that game. I thought that they 19 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: would at least win the game, not cover, but they'd 20 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: win the game. I didn't see it coming by any 21 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: stretch of the imagination. And I got my tail saved 22 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 1: by an in game wager. I took plus twenty. I thought, 23 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: there's no way in hell they're losing by twenty points 24 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: at home in the postseason, so I took the plus twenty, 25 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 1: and then I had the parlay from the live stream 26 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: and from the discord chat that we played and the 27 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 1: you know, don't play the parlay parlay now is two 28 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 1: and two officially here on the Daily Juice. So that 29 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: parlay was a three to one and it saved my butt. 30 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: And so basically I wound up flat for the day, 31 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: but down on the podcast, down for the record, you know, we'll, we'll, we'll, 32 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: we'll go ahead and put that in there. I'll have 33 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 1: Dan Harris updated because it wasn't official play. But I 34 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: took all the dogs and I teased them up by 35 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: six points, and they all hit. They all hit. So, 36 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: you know, the the one that was sort of a 37 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 1: miracle where it was the Bears with that one handed 38 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: catch at the end. So if I don't get that, 39 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: that would have been brutal. And then if I don't 40 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: get the you know, the Steelers in game to get 41 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: myself out of the bad pick with the Steelers laying six, 42 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: so basically we wound up a wash there, you know, 43 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: and maybe up a couple of dollars once still said 44 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: and done with the math, but not a good day 45 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: on the on the jewe. So you know, officially we 46 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,119 Speaker 1: go zero and two on the jews, one and two 47 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: with the parlay ad and then one and two on 48 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 1: the prop bets, So a little bit down there, nothing 49 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 1: too crazy. We only bet three of them. So yeah, 50 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,679 Speaker 1: not great, not great, not great, not great. But here 51 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: we are with the championship game for the national championship 52 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: in college football, the last college football day game of 53 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: the year, and I am going to cross my fingers 54 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 1: and I'm going to hope that we're going to have 55 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: a good night. So here is the deal. I have 56 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: bet Alabama minus seven already. I told you guys that 57 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,679 Speaker 1: a couple of days ago, right. I don't trust myself. 58 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 1: I think I'm seeing the board really wrong. I think 59 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: there are a lot of sharp people who are on 60 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 1: Ohio State. So I want to explain to you kind 61 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: of what I have done here for this game now 62 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: here today. So the Alabama minus seven is a bet 63 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: that I made, all right, the public has moved this number, 64 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: and well hold on before I give you the picks. 65 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 1: I can get all into it, but you know, Alabama 66 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: minus seven is what I have bet. Okay, so that's 67 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: one play. I have got one in game teaser, and 68 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: I've got two other plays to give you guys here 69 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: today on the podcast and again, if you want to 70 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: fade all of these, well you kind of can't because 71 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: I'll explain to you what I'm doing here to kind 72 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: of get myself out of the Alabama bet a little bit. 73 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: But I'm going to tell you a little bit. You know, 74 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: you can pick and choose here fate if you want. 75 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: This is just what I've done because I'm scrambling. I'm 76 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 1: not gonna lie. I'm ice cold, and when you're ice cold, 77 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: it's difficult. These are the mental challenges sports betting. This 78 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: is when you got to fight through with sports betting. 79 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: And back a couple of months ago, maybe a month ago, 80 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: I talked about just like hitting one shot, like having 81 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 1: one good day can spill into two good days, into 82 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 1: three good days. That's how you get rolling. So I'm 83 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: trying just to kind of have not a no stress day, 84 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: but not a brutal day. At least I'm guaranteed to 85 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: hit at least one bet coming up today with the 86 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: way that I have wagered here, so hopefully things work out, 87 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:42,160 Speaker 1: hopefully I get where I want to get to here. 88 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: But I'll explain more here in just one second. But 89 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: the bet mgm offer is for tonight with the National 90 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: Championship game from betmgm. You bet one dollar and you 91 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: will win one hundred dollars if you use the pro 92 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: the promo code Juice one hundred if you sign up 93 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: for a bet mgm account here today. If either team 94 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: scores a touchdown and championship game, you will win one 95 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: hundred dollars that will be paid out in free wagers. 96 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: It's available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, Tennessee, Iowa, in 97 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: West Virginia. Please note this promotion is not available in 98 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: the state of Pennsylvania. You must be twenty one years 99 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 1: or older. You must go to bedmgm dot com if 100 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: you want terms and conditions, and you must be physically 101 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: located in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, Tennessee, Iowa, or West 102 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: ver Virginia. If you have gambling problem, please gamble responsibility. 103 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 1: But if you do have a problem, called one one 104 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: hundred and five to two forty seven hundred in Colorado, one 105 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: hundred gambler in New Jersey, in West Virginia, or one 106 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: one hundred and nine with it in Indiana. All right, So, 107 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,840 Speaker 1: as I told you, Alabama minus seven. So here's where 108 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: I am. There are people I've spoken to, people I'm 109 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 1: talking to, and people think that Bama's not gonna cover. 110 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: They think that it's gonna be a really good game. 111 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: They think Alabama's defense is not very good, that it's 112 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,359 Speaker 1: gonna be points that are gonna be scored, but that 113 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: the total is so high that they don't think that 114 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: Ohio State wants to get into that type of shootout. 115 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: They know that Bama can put up fifty, so they're 116 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: concerned about that. They can run the ball fairly well. 117 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: Ohio State can score fast on the ground, but they 118 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: do want to run the football. They do want to 119 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: shrink the game a little bit. They're not really looking 120 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: to get into a fifty to fifty type of game here, Okay, 121 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: they want to play a little bit slower. Alabama Historically speaking, 122 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: they didn't the over did not hit in their last game. 123 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 1: It didn't hit in the bowl game last year, but 124 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: that doesn't really matter. But their last national championship game 125 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 1: it did go over, but their semi final game did not. 126 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 1: So basically, in the playoffs, we're looking at two of 127 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: the last three games that have gone under for Alabama. 128 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 1: It's a title game. You do see nerves, you do see, 129 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 1: you know, a feeling out process, a heavyweight bout, so 130 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: to speak. So maybe the first quarter gets off kind 131 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: of slowly and then you you know, it's tough to 132 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: make up to get to seventy five and a half 133 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: where the total is here. I know that Jalen Waddle 134 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: may be playing and that could be monstrous, But the 135 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: public has been coming in on Alabama so heavily that 136 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: it just feels it feels wrong. The public has been 137 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: getting killed. I've been writing with the public. I just 138 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: can't do it. So I'm already in for one unit 139 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: for Alabama minus seven. So here's how I'm gonna kind 140 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: of hedge on that, and I'm gonna kind of say, Okay, 141 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: maybe I'm wrong, but in case I'm right and Bama 142 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 1: kills them, Okay, we got that wage you're going, But 143 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: Alabama minus seven is where I have it. The line 144 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: is nine at certain books right now. Okay, eight and 145 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: a half. Most books. It's painted at the time of 146 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: taping here, it's painted eight eight and a half. You 147 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: can find nines that are out there. By the time 148 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: you're listening to this, you could wind up getting yourself 149 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: into a situation where you're seeing it at nine or higher. 150 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: I think the public's gonna come in here and bet 151 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: Alabama all morning. I just think it's gonna be a big, 152 00:07:57,800 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: big Bama run here. People are gonna think the game 153 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: already over. They're gonna bet at heavily, and tons of 154 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: money's coming in here on Ohio State. So what I 155 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: am doing is this, I am taking one full unit 156 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: and I'm going to tease Ohio State from nine to 157 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: six point teaser teasing it to fifteen, okay, Ohio State 158 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: plus fifteen, and I'm taking the total up to eighty 159 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: one and a half and I'm taking the under. Okay, 160 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: that's a one unit, sort of like a fade a 161 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 1: hedge if you will, on Alabama minus seven. But I'm 162 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: not done either, Okay, So in case the game really 163 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: does get insane and really high scoring, I'm gonna take 164 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 1: Ohio State plus nine, okay for a half a unit 165 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 1: gonna come in here. Ohio State half a unit, okay, 166 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 1: and then with the other half a unit, I'm just 167 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: gonna take the under straight at seventy five and a 168 00:08:55,760 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: half for both these two teams. So again, my process 169 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: on Alabama here is that both teams will take some 170 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 1: time to feel each other out. And I'm not really 171 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 1: feeling a monster over game, even though everybody is betting 172 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:13,599 Speaker 1: it like it's going to be seventy five and a 173 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: half points here. And look, Alabama is capable of putting 174 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: up a lot of points. And maybe I'm totally seeing 175 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: this wrong. And you may go, like Matt, you're totally 176 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: you know, hedging on yourself. You're not catching yourself. But 177 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: BEMA did not cover against Florida. That didn't cover against 178 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: Notre Dame. Ohio State covered at seven point dogs against Clemson. 179 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: I understand that, But the game before that against Northwestern, 180 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: they won the game by twelve. They didn't cover that game. 181 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: From a total perspective, Alabama has been pretty good to 182 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: the number seven and five. It did not go over 183 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,959 Speaker 1: against Notre Dame, it did go over against Florida, didn't 184 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: go over against Arkansas, Clemson in the game for Ohio 185 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: State went over, and they've been pretty good to the over. 186 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: For the last five games for Ohio State have gone over. 187 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:01,719 Speaker 1: But this is you know, at the end of the day, 188 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: this is a Big ten team, okay. And Alabama's defense 189 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: played pretty well against Notre Dame, didn't play well against Florida, 190 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 1: but the game had gotten so far away from them, 191 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: maybe they just kind of relaxed a little bit. And 192 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: you know, do we think a fifty two to forty 193 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: six game could happen? I mean, I guess so. I 194 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: guess that that would be possible, and that would destroy 195 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: the same game teaser. But you know, Ohio State plus 196 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: fifteen and under eighty one and a half, you could say, Matt, 197 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: why don't you go the other way and why don't 198 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: you just tease it down? Take the over? Well, because 199 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: that's sixty nine points, Okay, that's what the Clemson game 200 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: was set at. For Clemson Ohio State and the Alabama 201 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: Notre Dame game was set at sixty five and a half. 202 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: The Florida game was set at seventy. But I don't 203 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 1: know if Ohio State's offense it's gonna be able to 204 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: put up a ton of points. In fact, I don't 205 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 1: know if they really want to put up a ton 206 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: of points. Like what if you're Ohio State, why do 207 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 1: you want to get into a track meet with Alabama? 208 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: It doesn't work. You're not gonna win that game. Like, 209 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: that's not your style, that's not who you are. You 210 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: can score, but you're gonna I want to try try, 211 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: you know, really hard to play defense. You're gonna want 212 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: to try to run the football. You're gonna want to 213 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: try to keep possessions down. You don't want to give 214 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: a lot of possessions to Alabama because if you do that, 215 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 1: you're gonna get run out of the building. So that's 216 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 1: why I just think, you know, giving giving Ohio State 217 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: fifteen points and then teasing it up to eighty one 218 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 1: and a half and taking the under, I just think 219 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: that that's the way to go here. And you get 220 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: I mean I get it at minus one oh five, 221 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 1: so I get it pretty much even money for college 222 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: football same game teasers. That's how I'm gonna do it 223 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: as sort of a hedge back. And then I'm taking 224 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,559 Speaker 1: Ohio State plus nine and I'm taking the under at 225 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: seventy five and a half for the National Championship game. 226 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: When you guys get up in the morning, and when 227 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: you start listening to this, I could see these numbers 228 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 1: be changing in the favor of the new plays, not 229 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,959 Speaker 1: the old plays. Bama minus seven is that's the best number. 230 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 1: You're not gonna You're not gonna get a better number 231 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,599 Speaker 1: than that. Do I have a middle opportunity? Yes? If Alabama? 232 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: If if to Bama win by eight, I get a middle, 233 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: all right, and I hit both bets the way I 234 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: am going, I highly doubt I hit both wagers. I 235 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 1: would take it, okay, I would be all in love 236 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: with it if it's somehow, some way played out like that, 237 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: but I just don't think that's more or less not 238 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 1: really likely. But again, if BAMA wins and BAMA covers, 239 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: we've got that cleared and hopefully the under comes in 240 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:26,199 Speaker 1: as well. And so basically it's like a flat night 241 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:28,559 Speaker 1: and I can just kind of have a stress free 242 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: watching experience. I know that's not really what I'm supposed 243 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: to do here on the Daily Juice, but after the weekend, 244 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: I just had I want to watch this game. I 245 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 1: want to enjoy this game, and I don't want to 246 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: be gripping because I have blown this so badly and 247 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: I wanted to have everything spilling over into this game 248 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 1: and then have Alabama and Ohio State not really matter. 249 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 1: So if I got it wrong, we still had bank. 250 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: You know, we had banked a bunch of victories during 251 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 1: the week, during the weekend rather and then Monday's game 252 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: didn't really matter. Well, now we've lost a ton and 253 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 1: this is like old SCO Monday Night Football, where like, 254 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: why do we have Monday Night Football? Well, it's to 255 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: make up everything before we get to pay the bookie 256 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: on Tuesday. We don't have bookies anymore per se, but 257 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: it's still the same thing where it's it's a Monday 258 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 1: night broadcast to try to make up for the one 259 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: in six plays that we just had on Saturday, Sunday 260 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: now here into Monday. So that's not really a good 261 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,319 Speaker 1: place to be. And so I just want to kind 262 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,839 Speaker 1: of close the book on the college football season here 263 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: tonight and know that I'm going to cash at least 264 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: one of these bets. I'm going to cash something, and 265 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: so we get to kind of hit one free throw 266 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: and hopefully that spilled us over onto Tuesday, onto Wednesday, 267 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 1: and we get going into the into the NFL season 268 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 1: and NFL playoffs, and hopefully we get some more going 269 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: on with the NFL playoffs. Just a couple of quick 270 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: things here before we wrap on the playoffs. Congratulations to 271 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: Browns fans. You guys, that was really impressive. I had 272 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,959 Speaker 1: no clue, I had no idea that was going to happen. 273 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,599 Speaker 1: That totally caught me off guard. I was. I was 274 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: adamant that the Steelers are gonna win that game. I 275 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: thought for sure they would win that game. And we 276 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: had the tease up with the Titans, right, we did that, 277 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: teased it up. They lost by seven, so that was good. 278 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: But then man alive. Just not our day. And frankly, look, 279 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: it was a tough weekend for everybody. The end of 280 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 1: the the end of the game where you had the 281 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: walk off touchdown for the Bears where they don't kick 282 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: the extra point. They changed that rule where they kicked 283 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: the extra point only when it matters. When it doesn't matter, 284 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: they run off. And so if you had you're sitting 285 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: on plus eleven plus ten, I mean you're sitting there 286 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: going like, wait what no two point conversion? Wait no, 287 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: there was no time left. Jimmy Graham makes a one 288 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: handed touchdown catch cash is my plus sixteen? You know, 289 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 1: it'll let us catch the don't play a parlay parlay. 290 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: But if you were on plus eleven plus twelve wherever 291 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: you were, or I guess plus ten wherever you were, 292 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: that was brutal because you end up losing because they 293 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: don't kick the extra point, you don't get a push, 294 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: or they'll go for a two point conversion. So that 295 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: hurt a lot of people. So the Saints cover. That 296 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: was a sh arper play for the Saints to cover. 297 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: The Ravens got a lot of late money and that 298 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: line ended up closing it for I think, so you 299 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: had that was a public came in on the Dogs 300 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: because everyone was talking about dogs, dogs, dogs, right, So 301 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: in the first two games, the Dogs don't hit. But 302 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 1: then the Browns, because everybody had just been burned, they 303 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: came in on the Steelers and then the Steelers get 304 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 1: their doors blown off and the first quarter was horrific, 305 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: twenty eight to nothing. I mean, the Steelers played pretty 306 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: well the rest of the way, but Mike Tomlin, I mean, 307 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: when we go back and look at coaches and their decisions, 308 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: these old school coaches that are afraid to go forward 309 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 1: on fourth and one from the forty six yard line, 310 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 1: when you have all the momentum in the world and 311 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: you decide to trust your defense, you deserve to lose. 312 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: Straight up. You deserve that loss. Mike Tomlin deserves that 313 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: loss because he decided to give his defense, which was 314 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: Swiss cheese the entire second half of the season, a 315 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: chance to blow the game versus controlling your own destiny. 316 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: And Mike Tomlin by punting there. If you look at statistics, 317 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: and I'm not always in an analytical guy, but he 318 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: lost eight percent of a chance to win that game 319 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 1: by that punt. It went from thirty one percent to 320 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 1: twenty three percent by punting there. That's just embarrassing. You're 321 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: waving the white flag. You're showing that you don't have 322 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: the guts to go for it there because you don't 323 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: want to be second guessed if it doesn't work. That's 324 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 1: the problem. You don't want to hear it in the 325 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: press conference. Why did you choose to go for it there? 326 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: You could have punted and played field position. Why didn't 327 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: you trust your defense? He didn't want it. He didn't 328 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: want that type of smoke if you was a kid, 329 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: say from the media, from the fans. So he punted 330 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: and now he'll get all types of smoke from the 331 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: fans and the media because he punted, and he'll say, 332 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 1: I would have been dan if I do dan if 333 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: I don't, which is why you go for it, Which 334 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: is why the exact reason why you go for it 335 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 1: there and you give your chance, give yourself a chance 336 00:16:58,080 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: to win the game. Because he might have won the game, 337 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 1: his team may have pulled off a miracle because everything 338 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,679 Speaker 1: was going the right way for the Steelers and then 339 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: he punted and that was it. Mike Vrabel, same thing 340 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 1: in his game in the fourth quarter, eight minutes left. 341 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: You know you're in plus territory and you punt. What 342 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 1: are you doing? You deserve to lose. And both coaches 343 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 1: lost because they don't have the courage to say, I 344 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 1: want the ball and I want the shot, I want 345 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,239 Speaker 1: to take the shot. This is the difference with basketball players, right. 346 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 1: Basketball players oftentimes, give me the ball, let me take 347 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 1: the shot, because you have control over it. If you 348 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 1: miss it, fine, But to make or miss game in 349 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 1: football in those you know, in those situations, a lot 350 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 1: of it is make or miss. Right, you want the ball. 351 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 1: If you make it, great. If you don't make the 352 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 1: fourth down play, fine, then you trust your defense, or 353 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,719 Speaker 1: then you hope for something strong to happen with your defense. 354 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 1: But you had your offense on the field, and you 355 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: controlled your own destiny, and you decided to give it 356 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: up and give it to somebody else and let somebody 357 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: else dictate your fate. In playing defense right now in 358 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: the NFL and playing defense in football in general right 359 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: now is kind of like betting unders. Right. Maybe once 360 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: in a while it works out, but for the majority 361 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 1: of the time it's not working out, and it's pretty brutal, 362 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 1: and it's pretty bad. So all right, to recap again, 363 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: we're on both sides of this game. Now. I understand 364 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 1: Alabama minus seven in the National Championship Game. We're coming 365 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: back with the same game teaser. Those are the two 366 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: legs are at one unit, Ohio State plus fifteen under 367 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: eighty one and a half. I am taking Ohio State 368 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,400 Speaker 1: for a half a unit at plus nine, and I'm 369 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 1: taking the under seventy five and a half for al 370 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 1: for a half unit as well. So three units in 371 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: play National Championship Game. If I add I don't know, 372 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: I may add a prop better too. I don't really 373 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: bet props in college, but we'll see what's available for me. 374 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 1: If there are props available, I'll add them in the 375 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: discord chat during the day bettingpros dot Com slash chat 376 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 1: to jump in on that Bettingpros dot Com slash chats. 377 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: Hopefully you guys checked out the live streams here on 378 00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday, and we're back on a two day 379 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 1: without football, but probably a big college basketball day coming 380 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 1: up tomorrow For the Daily Juice Podcast, my name is 381 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 1: Matt Paroltz. Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. 382 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 1: Every morning, it's the Daily Juice Podcast right here on 383 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com, brought to you by Betamgoe