WEBVTT - Week 7 NFL Bets: Nick’s 5 Picks 0:00:01.520 --> 0:00:04.520 This episode is brought to you by Love Herts kiw Week. 0:00:04.559 --> 0:00:07.360 Kwan has had quite a career, from childhood roles in 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:10.120 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies 0:00:10.280 --> 0:00:13.360 to a recent Academy Award win for Everything, Everywhere, All 0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:16.360 at Once. But now Keith finally stars as a leading 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:19.440 man in the film Love Hurts. Love Hurts is a 0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:22.119 perfect date night movie with its mix of over the 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.799 top action comedy and a ton of heart. Love Hurts 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:27.560 Only at theaters February seventh. 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.599 This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:37.000 inspiring true story about Anthony Roebliss, who defined every expectation 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.959 to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:43.560 original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg, 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:46.800 evoking the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:50.280 thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:53.840 including Jirelle Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheadle, Michael Panha, and 0:00:53.880 --> 0:01:09.800 Bobby Knavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:13.840 Welcome in Episode eighty five, What's Right Nick right the 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:18.039 podcast the YouTube show. We are officially Am I going 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:19.959 to be right when I say this? I'm checking in 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:25.640 real time? Are we officially at eighty thousand subscribers on YouTube? 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.600 We were right? I mean this close? What'd you say 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:30.199 to Monsey? See? 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:32.199 Maybe I'm mistaken. I thought we were at more than eighty. 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:36.039 No, seventy nine point six thousand as of recording, which 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:38.520 means by the time people see this, maybe we will 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:42.240 be at eighty thousand subscribers. Remember, Demons is on the 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:44.840 books for one thousand dollars bonus if we get to 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:49.320 one hundred thousand subscribers before the end of the football 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:52.200 regular season, so basically the first week of January. So 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:56.600 we'd appreciate you subscribing there, on iTunes, on Spotify, wherever 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.520 you get your podcasts, And if you're listening or watching 0:01:59.560 --> 0:02:04.080 this show, our week seven gambling show, it means you 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:08.440 are a loyal consumer of the product. Demands and I 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:12.160 put out because thus far you haven't been here to 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:16.359 make money. Thus far, we have been costing you money. Now, 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:20.440 have we been costing you outrageous sums? No, But however 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:24.560 we have been two and three or three and two 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:31.639 every god forsaken week. And that is because for five 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:38.920 weeks in a row, our lock, our right move, we 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:43.080 have been wrong. And for four of those five weeks, 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:48.320 our lock, our right move was covering at the god 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:52.840 dog two minute warning of the game. So last week, 0:02:52.919 --> 0:02:56.720 let's go through it. There's the season record. It's horrifying. 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:00.359 The only thing that makes me feel better is Bill's Simmons, 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:03.800 who has a slightly more popular podcast and gambling show 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:07.600 than this one, is down about three million dollars of 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:11.440 money this year. Documented. I'm just four games under five hundred. 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:13.839 As you can see, the lock is four games under 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:16.440 five hundred. So Cleveland minus two and a half against 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:19.520 New England was flatly the wrong side of it. There's 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:23.320 no justification there. I was dead wrong. Bailey's Appy continues 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.280 to impress. New England ran the ball great, Cleveland did 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:28.040 nothing well. I was on the wrong side of it. 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:32.960 Cincinnati minus two is good bet. When I said Cincinnati 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:35.160 was desperate, they were going to find a way to 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:38.080 win against New Orleans, even though New Orleans was getting healthier. 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:41.960 They did. The Giants plus five and a half clearly 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:44.880 the right side of it. They won that game outright, 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.000 as we said they might, so that feels good. CAC 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.680 plus two and a half did not cover, but I 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:52.360 don't feel like it was the wrong side of the bet. 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:55.880 They were winning the game with a minute twenty left, 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:59.440 so they were at one point in the game. They 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:03.680 were three point favorites. You there was, so that was 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:07.120 a little heart overhead. It was the game of the weekend. 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.480 I thought the line you can't city at home should 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:13.400 never be underdogs, so I went with them. However, I 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:15.040 don't feel like we were on the wrong side of it. 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:20.920 And then the damn Jaguars ruined me once again. So 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:24.760 the Jaguars in this game. What makes that pick even 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:28.600 worse is they were I got them plus one and 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:32.400 a half on this. I had him as my lock 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:35.040 on TV. The line had moved plus two and a 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:39.760 half and with thirty seconds left they were up one. 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:43.440 Now Indy was in field goal range with a good 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:46.680 not great, but a good kicker, and I was prepared 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:49.920 to lose the plus one and a half win the 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.000 plus two and a half on the and my real 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:54.919 bet was plus two and a half. My real life 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:59.040 bet was plus two and a half. And then Indy 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:05.560 on third down throws a bomb instead of being conservative 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:09.120 kicking a field goal winning by two, they get it, 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:12.679 they get the two point conversion, they win by seven, 0:05:13.520 --> 0:05:19.880 and we lose once again. However, unlike weeks four and five, 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:23.240 this is more like week six, where I looked at 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:26.200 the slate and I said, oh my god, I love 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:29.200 these games. I finally feel like I have a pulse 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:31.680 on the season. I know that two and three doesn't 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:35.080 feel like a pulse in the season, but two of 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:40.120 those games are two winners we won easily, are two losers. 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:44.279 We were covering both of them with one minute left 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:47.000 in that football game or a minute ten left in 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:51.440 that football game. We really only misanalyzed one game. You 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:55.280 add to it, we are now getting great production help 0:05:55.600 --> 0:05:59.640 because Victor, while I'm making my picks is sending in 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:03.479 his five picks, which is super helpful to make sure 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:07.360 that I'm not overlapping more than once with Victor. Victor, 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:10.320 I believe went OH for five last week, which is 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.480 why if you're watching on YouTube, he's down to just 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:18.000 T shirts. I OH for five weeks? Can really people 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:20.839 don't budget for an OH for five weeks. You don't 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:24.359 anticipate the over five week, the over five week is 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:28.880 the how much money do you get for donating plasma? 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:31.880 Those types of things go through your mind. So this 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:35.440 week we're gonna come out firing. We are starting with 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:40.559 a big underdog that I think might win outright. I 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:44.920 certainly love them catching a full seven the Detroit Lions 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:50.279 plus seven in Dallas in Dak Prescott's first game back. 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:54.359 That is our first pick. Let me explain it. So 0:06:54.440 --> 0:07:00.760 the Lions this year had Minnesota beat and then fell apart, 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:05.599 lost by four. They played Philly and lost by just 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:09.120 three points. They hung and I think they scored thirty 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:11.400 five on Philly, a Philly team that we now know 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:17.520 is excellent. They scored forty five on Seattle. Then what happened? 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:21.480 They played the New England Patriots. They got shut out, 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:25.880 They looked terrible, and then they had a buy. So 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:31.200 they are motivated and rested. They have that going for them. Dallas, 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:32.680 on the other hand, I think it's gonna have a 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:37.200 super conservative game plan with Dak's first game back, make 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:39.880 sure they get the win. What has Dallas been the 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:43.960 best at in football this year? Rushing the passer Micah Parsons, 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:46.840 DeMarcus Lawrence Demonsei's about to sneez. Don't worry about it, buddy. 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:49.920 Oh gosh, see, Demonsey's got this weird thing where the 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:53.680 slaves pal He won't actually sneeze. He old to sneezes 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:56.520 in and it gives him terrible medical problems. I don't 0:07:56.600 --> 0:07:59.600 just sneeze, buddy, He's now his eyes are watering. Sorry, 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:03.880 everybody sneezes. He wanted himself sneeze. Now back to the picks. So, Dallas, 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.200 what they do better than anybody is rush the passer. 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:13.080 Detroit has allowed seven sacks all season. They have the 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:15.520 best one of the best offensive lines in the league. 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:19.480 They have been getting Jared goff time all year. He 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.040 has not been getting hit, so I think the pass 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.040 rush is neutralized somewhat. I think this is a game 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:29.640 Detroit could win, outright. I love the coming off of 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:33.640 bye and coming off their worst performance. So they're also 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:37.320 a desperate team. I'm not necessarily picking them to win outright. 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:39.600 Then, Also, Dak's probably a little desperate too. 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:41.840 Well, yes, but I think it's gonna be in a 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.640 different way desperate in that I think Dak is gonna 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:48.120 make any mistake exactly right. I think Dak's gonna be 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:50.920 like listen if I don't. What I can't have happened 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:54.560 is Cooper Rush after he played clean for four games 0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:57.200 until it all fell apart against Philly. I can't go 0:08:57.240 --> 0:08:59.040 out there and throw a bunch of picks. I can't 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:01.920 make a bunch of mistakes. I think Mike McCarthy and 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:04.800 Kellen Moore are gonna have a conservative game plan. Makes 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:07.760 what they need is find a way to beat Detroit. 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.600 You then get Chicago the next week, then you're at 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:14.720 the bye and so for all those reasons, Detroit plus 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:18.240 the seven, I love it. That's our first pick. 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:19.560 It's not mad at it. 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:25.920 Next one, you're gonna be mad at next one. The 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:29.400 entire world's gonna be on the other side. Usually, when 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:32.240 the entire world's on the other side, when a line 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.520 looks too good to be true, we put it in 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:35.840 the be careful category. 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:36.800 Yep, they're like. 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:43.400 Oh, just be careful there, it's a trap. Instead, I'm 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:48.960 just going with anti public. I'm going with the side 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.760 no one's gonna be on. It also happens to be 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:57.160 a team that I've been writing with, the Jacksonville Jaguars 0:09:57.160 --> 0:10:00.920 and the Prince that was promised laying three points a 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:04.960 full three at home against the New York Giants. What 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:06.440 do you want to say to monsay. 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:10.800 It's so crazy to hear this every gambling show I made. 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:12.760 Your cry has got tears rolling. 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.040 I'm hurting for you, man. This is this is this 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:18.000 what you do? What do you just You just pick 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:20.560 one team to ride with and lose heck a cash 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:21.760 with and you just stick with it. 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:29.200 Okay, So this is what you're describing. Is like in 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:34.360 in blackjack or roulette, there's something called the Martingale method, 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:35.480 which is. 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.160 Not hit hit me, hit me, hit it. 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:43.040 Just you bet one hundred dollars on black on the 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:46.439 Roulett wheel and you lose, so then you bet two 0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:49.360 hundred and then if you lose your bet four hundred, 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:51.920 and then if you lose your bet eight hundred, and 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:54.080 you only have to win once and you're up that 0:10:54.080 --> 0:10:57.719 one hundred bucks. Don't understand the problem with that is 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:00.320 the casino is never gonna run out of money, and 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:03.079 you could run out of money before I. 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.240 Like that little rule. That's that's interesting though. 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:09.280 Okay, but it is like the number one way people 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:13.240 go broke gambling because it doesn't take that many in 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:15.880 a row for you to be out of money. So like, 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:18.800 if you start with one hundred and then two hundred, 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:22.880 four hundred, eight hundred, now you're fifteen hundred total in 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:26.200 the hole. The next one sixteen hundred. Now you're over 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:29.400 three grand in the hole. The next one is thirty 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:32.800 two hundred. Now you're almost sixty five hundred dollars in 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:36.600 the hole. And the other thing at the casino, that'll 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:39.400 happen even if you brought one hundred thousand dollars with you. 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:42.880 They have table maxes and they'll be like, sorry, sir, 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:45.960 you can't bet more than five thousand on the roulette spend. 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:48.120 It's a terrible way to do it. 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:49.880 Well, it's a good thing. What Weddy can tell you 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:51.000 to not bet on these shows? 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:55.400 Okay, with that exactly, With that said, the Jags are 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:59.160 The Jags are a good team. You can't convince me 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:03.000 they're not a good team. The Giants, meanwhile, are flying 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.400 a little too high. They're coming off back to back 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:10.360 huge wins for the franchise, by the way, and I 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:14.520 give the Giants massive credit. Can we discuss the circumstances 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.520 in which they won those games? Now again, I think 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:19.200 the Giants are gonna I think we're gonna talk about 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:19.520 it later. 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:20.880 Maybe not. 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:24.439 I'm not sure. I think Giants are gonna make the playoffs. However, 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.079 their last two wins they are impressive wins over Green 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:32.320 Bay and Baltimore. Green Bay they're down fourteen in the 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:38.600 second half. Baltimore they are down ten in the fourth quarter. Okay, 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:42.320 with seven minutes left, they're down ten. In that game, 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:46.479 the Giants are five and one, and I give them credit. Tennessee. 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:52.280 The Giants win on a two point conversion with a 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:55.440 minute forty seven seconds left, and then Tennessee misses the 0:12:55.440 --> 0:13:01.360 field goal Carolina. The Giants are the It takes a 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:04.880 missed field or they need a fifty six yard field 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:07.560 goal in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter to 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:12.839 beat Carolina. Chicago. I give them credit for Chicago. They 0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:16.800 beat by soundly, by eight points. But even Chicago was 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:19.440 a five point game midway through the fourth quarter. And 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:21.880 then we just talked about green Bay and Baltimore. 0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.080 You know what the Gates like all of that? What 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:27.880 the Jags losing to the Texans at home, but carry on. 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.040 Losing to the Texans at home, then losing to the Colts, 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.319 blowing a fourteen point lead to Philly losing to the 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:39.280 Washington Command. Yeah, I've seen it all, but I'm well 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:45.560 aware this is the week they turn it around. Yeah, 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:49.480 your deep minus three? Now, am I gonna Am I 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:51.880 gonna lock them up as I have in the past. 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:52.760 Probably not. 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:54.559 That's probably not gonna be my. 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:58.240 Lock of the week. But I still believe in Trevor Lawrence. 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.960 I do not as impressed as I am with the Giants. 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.560 I do not believe in Dan that Daniel Jones has 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:06.800 turned some massive corner of the way. Some people seem 0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:13.840 to think he has Jacksonville minus three. Next one, Cleveland 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:18.400 catching six against Baltimore at Baltimore lines just too high. 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:21.200 Do I think Cleveland's gonna win this game? I do 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.840 not do. I trust Jakoby Brissett at all. I do 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:27.840 not do I think Lamar is gonna bounce back. I 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:32.960 actually do. But six points in a divisional game that 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:39.880 Cleveland is totally desperate on, and that Baltimore because they 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:45.800 have blown three separate ten point leads this year, Baltimore, 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:50.840 this is crazy. Bill Barnwell had this stat prior to 0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:57.040 this season. In Lamar's career ten point plus lead in 0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:02.200 the fourth quarter for Baltimore thirty one in two this season, 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.080 Baltimore with a ten plus point lead in the fourth 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:08.760 quarter two and three, they've already lost three times like that. 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.640 Why does that matter for these purposes? If they are 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.960 up by ten, I don't think they try to pour 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.280 it on. I think that they are super conservative. Cleveland 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:23.120 can get a garbage time backdoor cover. There's just a 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.440 lot of ways that I think this is a Justin 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:28.800 Tucker game. They try to What they don't want is 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:31.680 for Lamar. They trust Lamar, but I think they want 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:33.840 to protect him from himself from some of these late 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.880 game mistakes he's been making. It's just too many points. 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:41.120 So Cleveland, who is a good overall team right now 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:44.360 with miserable quarterback play, You really do look at it, 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:49.040 and as reprehensible as I think a lot of people 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:52.440 fairly find Toshan Watson off the field, you look at 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.400 it and you say, man if Deshaun had played all 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:57.800 six of these games, are they five and one? 0:15:58.320 --> 0:15:59.080 Are that? You know what I mean? 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.120 Are they one of the best teams in the league? Instead? 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:05.720 Jacoby has made some critical late errors. They also you 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:08.880 like betting on or I like betting on teams I 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:14.920 know it's gonna sound counterintuitive coming off horrific performances because 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.600 I think the public overreacts to it and you get 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:20.840 a few points a line value. I think this should 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.680 be Baltimore minus three and a half or four. It's 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:27.320 Baltimore minus six. So we're jumping on Cleveland plus the 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:29.800 six points that game. It doesn't seem like you hate. 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:32.480 Seems like you don't. No, no, you like my logic. I 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:37.440 agree with that one. Yeah, all right, Seattle getting five 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:42.240 and a half at the Chargers. Okay, let's break down 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:47.640 why we like Seattle. First one is this every Charger game, 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:50.280 you have to keep in mind they will not have 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.560 home field advantage even when they're at home. At best, 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:57.680 it's a push. Seattle has become something of a national 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:01.040 fan base because of the success of Legion of boom Era, 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:04.440 so there's gonna be a lot of Seattle fans there. Secondarily, 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:11.000 the Chargers' injuries are so overwhelming that a team. I know, 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:13.240 they're four and two and they're happy to be four 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:17.040 and two, but they are nothing like the team we 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.560 thought they would be. The Chargers this year got so 0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:24.640 banged up in Week one. Since then, their best performance 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.080 was their loss to the Chiefs because they actually were 0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:29.560 up ten in that game and then blew it. They 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:33.439 get blown out by Jacksonville. There it's a three point 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:36.359 game that comes down to they went for a fourth 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:38.840 down and got it against Houston end up winning by ten. 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:43.160 They escaped against Cleveland thanks to one of those horrific 0:17:43.240 --> 0:17:47.120 Jacoby moves or Jacoby picks, but they really escaped, winning 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:47.560 by two. 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:48.640 And then we just. 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:51.720 Watched them against Denver. So the Chargers are on a 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:57.480 short week. The offense and offensive line looks incredibly shaky. Seattle, 0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:01.639 on the other hand, I do believe that Gino is 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:03.320 all year long. I don't think he's gonna have the 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:05.879 highest pass rating in football all year long, but I 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:08.760 do believe that Gino is going to continue to score points. 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:13.119 Seattle this year has had you know, they scored thirty 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:16.400 two against New Orleans, they scored forty eight against Detroit. 0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:20.720 This past week against Arizona, they only scored nineteen. However, 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.159 that was a game where they could be super conservative 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:27.920 because Arizona's offense is in such shambles. By the time 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:30.159 people will have seen this, by the way Arizona will 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:32.800 have played on Thursday, Night Football. We'll talk about them later. 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:36.879 So I think Seattle could win the game outright. I 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:41.040 also think if they're trailing by ten to eleven points, 0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:44.359 they are super live for a backdoor cover. I don't 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:46.439 think the Chargers are gonna have a real home field. 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:50.040 There's a lot of I think Seattle's defense is showing 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.520 after being horrific early in the year, it is improving. 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:57.080 Seattle plus five and a half in what will be 0:18:57.400 --> 0:19:01.280 essentially a neutral site game. I like them all right. 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:07.439 Last one, Remember how I said I like betting on 0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:11.639 teams coming off their worst performance. The flip side to 0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:16.800 that is betting against teams coming off their best performance. 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:23.040 Miami laying a full seven at home against Pittsburgh. 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:25.240 I like the Dolphins, Okay. 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:29.639 I went into last week's game feeling like Pittsburgh might 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:33.240 be the worst team in the NFL. Right, they had 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.639 played like the worst team in the NFL. They then 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:40.359 beat the Bucks, and now a game that should be 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:46.040 Miami by ten is Miami only by seven. Also, Miami 0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:50.320 was three and oh this year with victories over New England, 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:55.200 who we now know is decent, Baltimore who's good, and Buffalo, 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.040 who's excellent. In the three games two has played. They 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:03.719 then had Teddy Bridgewater and then Skyler Thompson and then 0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:07.239 a Teddy Bridgewater Skyler Thompson combo and they went zero 0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:12.560 to three. Tyreek Hill has been better than advertised. He's 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:16.200 been sensational. I think this is a game where let 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:18.520 me check what the weather, you know what. I should 0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:20.879 have checked this before. My apologies for not doing that. 0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:23.679 I want to check what the weather is this weekend 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:24.240 in Miami. 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:26.640 If you gets so eighty. 0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:29.359 Two and Sonny is what Matt is telling me. So 0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:32.680 that's to me. You know ho, Miami set up their 0:20:32.720 --> 0:20:35.920 stadium to where the home benches are in the shade 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:39.360 and the road benches are in the sun. So it's 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:43.000 like twenty degrees hotter on the road sideline, and so 0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:45.600 I think that is damaging for Pittsburgh. 0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:45.960 Yeah. 0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:49.560 I think Miami is gonna score twenty eight points. I 0:20:49.560 --> 0:20:51.960 don't see even in their win Pittsburgh only got to 0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:55.720 twenty against Tampa. I think Miami. I will lay the 0:20:55.760 --> 0:20:57.119 seven with the Miami Dolphins. 0:20:57.119 --> 0:20:58.160 Go ahead. Soay, you're going with. 0:20:58.160 --> 0:21:04.040 Golf, Trevor Brissett, Gino and Post can cuss Tua. 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:05.600 How do you feel about all right, you know what 0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:08.919 I had looked at it that way. You make some 0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:13.560 strong points I am going with, okay, but let's break 0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:17.359 that down. It's Goff against Dak in his first game 0:21:17.400 --> 0:21:20.720 back after a thumb surgery. Remember how horrible now he 0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:23.560 came back too soon. Russell Wilson looked in his first 0:21:23.560 --> 0:21:26.160 game back from that thumb surgery, and Russ, by the way, 0:21:26.200 --> 0:21:28.960 has never looked good since then. I don't blame thumb surgery. 0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:32.360 Trevor is the prince that was promised, first of all. 0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:36.440 Second of all, he's obviously better than Daniel Jones. Jacoby 0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:40.760 is like, yeah, Jacoby versus Lamar. But I said, I 0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:42.879 just think that line should be four, and it's six. 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.520 Gino has been better than Justin Herbert this year, and 0:21:47.760 --> 0:21:52.879 Tua post concussion pre concussion at any point is better 0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:56.639 than what Pittsburgh's god at quarterback rookie Kenny Pickett and 0:21:56.960 --> 0:22:00.879 Mitch Trubisky. So it doesn't look great quarterback wise. But 0:22:01.000 --> 0:22:03.919 the only one where you're certain I'm at a disadvantage 0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:07.360 is Cleveland against Baltimore and I'm getting six points. 0:22:07.480 --> 0:22:10.000 Did you just openly say that Gino is better than 0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:13.040 Justin this year? 0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:17.840 He has been this year. Doson Herberts got cracked ribs, 0:22:18.160 --> 0:22:21.840 missing his left tackle. Keenan Allen's been out there, he's 0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:25.400 he has not taken the lead people thought he would take. Meanwhile, 0:22:25.440 --> 0:22:29.600 Gino's been excellent, So lock him in Detroit plus seven, 0:22:29.680 --> 0:22:32.920 Jacksonville minus three, Cleveland plus six, Seattle plus five and 0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:37.240 a half, Miami minus seven. Thankfully, there is only one 0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:41.760 of those picks that mirrors what Victor picked with his five. Victor, 0:22:41.800 --> 0:22:42.920 we call him oh for five. 0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:43.280 Vic. 0:22:44.400 --> 0:22:46.359 We're gonna say, I think you know what I was 0:22:46.440 --> 0:22:47.840 gonna say. We'll see if he can run it up 0:22:47.880 --> 0:22:50.040 to oh for ten. However, I don't want him to 0:22:50.080 --> 0:22:52.040 go oh for five this week because we do have 0:22:52.080 --> 0:22:56.200 one of the same picks Seattle. Uh, we will break down. 0:22:56.240 --> 0:22:59.720 There's seven other games this weekend. Wait more than seven, 0:23:00.160 --> 0:23:02.760 nine other games this weekend. You know what, Let's go 0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:05.520 ahead and yeah, nine other games this weekend, because four 0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:08.120 teams are on a bye with those are in three categories, 0:23:08.200 --> 0:23:11.080 stay away, be careful and perfectly priced. We'll do that. 0:23:11.600 --> 0:23:14.080 And also, at the end of the show, I have, 0:23:14.560 --> 0:23:16.800 for the first time in a couple of weeks, not 0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:20.360 a good teaser, but a great teaser and the one 0:23:20.359 --> 0:23:21.880 thing we've been good at this year, giving you guys 0:23:21.920 --> 0:23:24.440 survivor picks. We'll give you our survivor this week as well. 0:23:24.600 --> 0:23:31.879 All that's next, we'll try, all right, welcome back in 0:23:32.000 --> 0:23:36.000