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Speaker 3: Welcome in Episode eighty five, What's Right Nick right the
Speaker 3: podcast the YouTube show. We are officially Am I going
Speaker 3: to be right when I say this? I'm checking in
Speaker 3: real time? Are we officially at eighty thousand subscribers on YouTube?
Speaker 3: We were right? I mean this close? What'd you say
Speaker 3: to Monsey? See?
Speaker 4: Maybe I'm mistaken. I thought we were at more than eighty.
Speaker 3: No, seventy nine point six thousand as of recording, which
Speaker 3: means by the time people see this, maybe we will
Speaker 3: be at eighty thousand subscribers. Remember, Demons is on the
Speaker 3: books for one thousand dollars bonus if we get to
Speaker 3: one hundred thousand subscribers before the end of the football
Speaker 3: regular season, so basically the first week of January. So
Speaker 3: we'd appreciate you subscribing there, on iTunes, on Spotify, wherever
Speaker 3: you get your podcasts, And if you're listening or watching
Speaker 3: this show, our week seven gambling show, it means you
Speaker 3: are a loyal consumer of the product. Demands and I
Speaker 3: put out because thus far you haven't been here to
Speaker 3: make money. Thus far, we have been costing you money. Now,
Speaker 3: have we been costing you outrageous sums? No, But however
Speaker 3: we have been two and three or three and two
Speaker 3: every god forsaken week. And that is because for five
Speaker 3: weeks in a row, our lock, our right move, we
Speaker 3: have been wrong. And for four of those five weeks,
Speaker 3: our lock, our right move was covering at the god
Speaker 3: dog two minute warning of the game. So last week,
Speaker 3: let's go through it. There's the season record. It's horrifying.
Speaker 3: The only thing that makes me feel better is Bill's Simmons,
Speaker 3: who has a slightly more popular podcast and gambling show
Speaker 3: than this one, is down about three million dollars of
Speaker 3: money this year. Documented. I'm just four games under five hundred.
Speaker 3: As you can see, the lock is four games under
Speaker 3: five hundred. So Cleveland minus two and a half against
Speaker 3: New England was flatly the wrong side of it. There's
Speaker 3: no justification there. I was dead wrong. Bailey's Appy continues
Speaker 3: to impress. New England ran the ball great, Cleveland did
Speaker 3: nothing well. I was on the wrong side of it.
Speaker 3: Cincinnati minus two is good bet. When I said Cincinnati
Speaker 3: was desperate, they were going to find a way to
Speaker 3: win against New Orleans, even though New Orleans was getting healthier.
Speaker 3: They did. The Giants plus five and a half clearly
Speaker 3: the right side of it. They won that game outright,
Speaker 3: as we said they might, so that feels good. CAC
Speaker 3: plus two and a half did not cover, but I
Speaker 3: don't feel like it was the wrong side of the bet.
Speaker 3: They were winning the game with a minute twenty left,
Speaker 3: so they were at one point in the game. They
Speaker 3: were three point favorites. You there was, so that was
Speaker 3: a little heart overhead. It was the game of the weekend.
Speaker 3: I thought the line you can't city at home should
Speaker 3: never be underdogs, so I went with them. However, I
Speaker 3: don't feel like we were on the wrong side of it.
Speaker 3: And then the damn Jaguars ruined me once again. So
Speaker 3: the Jaguars in this game. What makes that pick even
Speaker 3: worse is they were I got them plus one and
Speaker 3: a half on this. I had him as my lock
Speaker 3: on TV. The line had moved plus two and a
Speaker 3: half and with thirty seconds left they were up one.
Speaker 3: Now Indy was in field goal range with a good
Speaker 3: not great, but a good kicker, and I was prepared
Speaker 3: to lose the plus one and a half win the
Speaker 3: plus two and a half on the and my real
Speaker 3: bet was plus two and a half. My real life
Speaker 3: bet was plus two and a half. And then Indy
Speaker 3: on third down throws a bomb instead of being conservative
Speaker 3: kicking a field goal winning by two, they get it,
Speaker 3: they get the two point conversion, they win by seven,
Speaker 3: and we lose once again. However, unlike weeks four and five,
Speaker 3: this is more like week six, where I looked at
Speaker 3: the slate and I said, oh my god, I love
Speaker 3: these games. I finally feel like I have a pulse
Speaker 3: on the season. I know that two and three doesn't
Speaker 3: feel like a pulse in the season, but two of
Speaker 3: those games are two winners we won easily, are two losers.
Speaker 3: We were covering both of them with one minute left
Speaker 3: in that football game or a minute ten left in
Speaker 3: that football game. We really only misanalyzed one game. You
Speaker 3: add to it, we are now getting great production help
Speaker 3: because Victor, while I'm making my picks is sending in
Speaker 3: his five picks, which is super helpful to make sure
Speaker 3: that I'm not overlapping more than once with Victor. Victor,
Speaker 3: I believe went OH for five last week, which is
Speaker 3: why if you're watching on YouTube, he's down to just
Speaker 3: T shirts. I OH for five weeks? Can really people
Speaker 3: don't budget for an OH for five weeks. You don't
Speaker 3: anticipate the over five week, the over five week is
Speaker 3: the how much money do you get for donating plasma?
Speaker 3: Those types of things go through your mind. So this
Speaker 3: week we're gonna come out firing. We are starting with
Speaker 3: a big underdog that I think might win outright. I
Speaker 3: certainly love them catching a full seven the Detroit Lions
Speaker 3: plus seven in Dallas in Dak Prescott's first game back.
Speaker 3: That is our first pick. Let me explain it. So
Speaker 3: the Lions this year had Minnesota beat and then fell apart,
Speaker 3: lost by four. They played Philly and lost by just
Speaker 3: three points. They hung and I think they scored thirty
Speaker 3: five on Philly, a Philly team that we now know
Speaker 3: is excellent. They scored forty five on Seattle. Then what happened?
Speaker 3: They played the New England Patriots. They got shut out,
Speaker 3: They looked terrible, and then they had a buy. So
Speaker 3: they are motivated and rested. They have that going for them. Dallas,
Speaker 3: on the other hand, I think it's gonna have a
Speaker 3: super conservative game plan with Dak's first game back, make
Speaker 3: sure they get the win. What has Dallas been the
Speaker 3: best at in football this year? Rushing the passer Micah Parsons,
Speaker 3: DeMarcus Lawrence Demonsei's about to sneez. Don't worry about it, buddy.
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, see, Demonsey's got this weird thing where the
Speaker 3: slaves pal He won't actually sneeze. He old to sneezes
Speaker 3: in and it gives him terrible medical problems. I don't
Speaker 3: just sneeze, buddy, He's now his eyes are watering. Sorry,
Speaker 3: everybody sneezes. He wanted himself sneeze. Now back to the picks. So, Dallas,
Speaker 3: what they do better than anybody is rush the passer.
Speaker 3: Detroit has allowed seven sacks all season. They have the
Speaker 3: best one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Speaker 3: They have been getting Jared goff time all year. He
Speaker 3: has not been getting hit, so I think the pass
Speaker 3: rush is neutralized somewhat. I think this is a game
Speaker 3: Detroit could win, outright. I love the coming off of
Speaker 3: bye and coming off their worst performance. So they're also
Speaker 3: a desperate team. I'm not necessarily picking them to win outright.
Speaker 4: Then, Also, Dak's probably a little desperate too.
Speaker 3: Well, yes, but I think it's gonna be in a
Speaker 3: different way desperate in that I think Dak is gonna
Speaker 3: make any mistake exactly right. I think Dak's gonna be
Speaker 3: like listen if I don't. What I can't have happened
Speaker 3: is Cooper Rush after he played clean for four games
Speaker 3: until it all fell apart against Philly. I can't go
Speaker 3: out there and throw a bunch of picks. I can't
Speaker 3: make a bunch of mistakes. I think Mike McCarthy and
Speaker 3: Kellen Moore are gonna have a conservative game plan. Makes
Speaker 3: what they need is find a way to beat Detroit.
Speaker 3: You then get Chicago the next week, then you're at
Speaker 3: the bye and so for all those reasons, Detroit plus
Speaker 3: the seven, I love it. That's our first pick.
Speaker 4: It's not mad at it.
Speaker 3: Next one, you're gonna be mad at next one. The
Speaker 3: entire world's gonna be on the other side. Usually, when
Speaker 3: the entire world's on the other side, when a line
Speaker 3: looks too good to be true, we put it in
Speaker 3: the be careful category.
Speaker 4: Yep, they're like.
Speaker 3: Oh, just be careful there, it's a trap. Instead, I'm
Speaker 3: just going with anti public. I'm going with the side
Speaker 3: no one's gonna be on. It also happens to be
Speaker 3: a team that I've been writing with, the Jacksonville Jaguars
Speaker 3: and the Prince that was promised laying three points a
Speaker 3: full three at home against the New York Giants. What
Speaker 3: do you want to say to monsay.
Speaker 5: It's so crazy to hear this every gambling show I made.
Speaker 3: Your cry has got tears rolling.
Speaker 5: I'm hurting for you, man. This is this is this
Speaker 5: what you do? What do you just You just pick
Speaker 5: one team to ride with and lose heck a cash
Speaker 5: with and you just stick with it.
Speaker 3: Okay, So this is what you're describing. Is like in
Speaker 3: in blackjack or roulette, there's something called the Martingale method,
Speaker 3: which is.
Speaker 4: Not hit hit me, hit me, hit it.
Speaker 3: Just you bet one hundred dollars on black on the
Speaker 3: Roulett wheel and you lose, so then you bet two
Speaker 3: hundred and then if you lose your bet four hundred,
Speaker 3: and then if you lose your bet eight hundred, and
Speaker 3: you only have to win once and you're up that
Speaker 3: one hundred bucks. Don't understand the problem with that is
Speaker 3: the casino is never gonna run out of money, and
Speaker 3: you could run out of money before I.
Speaker 4: Like that little rule. That's that's interesting though.
Speaker 3: Okay, but it is like the number one way people
Speaker 3: go broke gambling because it doesn't take that many in
Speaker 3: a row for you to be out of money. So like,
Speaker 3: if you start with one hundred and then two hundred,
Speaker 3: four hundred, eight hundred, now you're fifteen hundred total in
Speaker 3: the hole. The next one sixteen hundred. Now you're over
Speaker 3: three grand in the hole. The next one is thirty
Speaker 3: two hundred. Now you're almost sixty five hundred dollars in
Speaker 3: the hole. And the other thing at the casino, that'll
Speaker 3: happen even if you brought one hundred thousand dollars with you.
Speaker 3: They have table maxes and they'll be like, sorry, sir,
Speaker 3: you can't bet more than five thousand on the roulette spend.
Speaker 3: It's a terrible way to do it.
Speaker 4: Well, it's a good thing. What Weddy can tell you
Speaker 4: to not bet on these shows?
Speaker 3: Okay, with that exactly, With that said, the Jags are
Speaker 3: The Jags are a good team. You can't convince me
Speaker 3: they're not a good team. The Giants, meanwhile, are flying
Speaker 3: a little too high. They're coming off back to back
Speaker 3: huge wins for the franchise, by the way, and I
Speaker 3: give the Giants massive credit. Can we discuss the circumstances
Speaker 3: in which they won those games? Now again, I think
Speaker 3: the Giants are gonna I think we're gonna talk about
Speaker 3: it later.
Speaker 4: Maybe not.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure. I think Giants are gonna make the playoffs. However,
Speaker 3: their last two wins they are impressive wins over Green
Speaker 3: Bay and Baltimore. Green Bay they're down fourteen in the
Speaker 3: second half. Baltimore they are down ten in the fourth quarter. Okay,
Speaker 3: with seven minutes left, they're down ten. In that game,
Speaker 3: the Giants are five and one, and I give them credit. Tennessee.
Speaker 3: The Giants win on a two point conversion with a
Speaker 3: minute forty seven seconds left, and then Tennessee misses the
Speaker 3: field goal Carolina. The Giants are the It takes a
Speaker 3: missed field or they need a fifty six yard field
Speaker 3: goal in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter to
Speaker 3: beat Carolina. Chicago. I give them credit for Chicago. They
Speaker 3: beat by soundly, by eight points. But even Chicago was
Speaker 3: a five point game midway through the fourth quarter. And
Speaker 3: then we just talked about green Bay and Baltimore.
Speaker 5: You know what the Gates like all of that? What
Speaker 5: the Jags losing to the Texans at home, but carry on.
Speaker 3: Losing to the Texans at home, then losing to the Colts,
Speaker 3: blowing a fourteen point lead to Philly losing to the
Speaker 3: Washington Command. Yeah, I've seen it all, but I'm well
Speaker 3: aware this is the week they turn it around. Yeah,
Speaker 3: your deep minus three? Now, am I gonna Am I
Speaker 3: gonna lock them up as I have in the past.
Speaker 3: Probably not.
Speaker 4: That's probably not gonna be my.
Speaker 3: Lock of the week. But I still believe in Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 3: I do not as impressed as I am with the Giants.
Speaker 3: I do not believe in Dan that Daniel Jones has
Speaker 3: turned some massive corner of the way. Some people seem
Speaker 3: to think he has Jacksonville minus three. Next one, Cleveland
Speaker 3: catching six against Baltimore at Baltimore lines just too high.
Speaker 3: Do I think Cleveland's gonna win this game? I do
Speaker 3: not do. I trust Jakoby Brissett at all. I do
Speaker 3: not do I think Lamar is gonna bounce back. I
Speaker 3: actually do. But six points in a divisional game that
Speaker 3: Cleveland is totally desperate on, and that Baltimore because they
Speaker 3: have blown three separate ten point leads this year, Baltimore,
Speaker 3: this is crazy. Bill Barnwell had this stat prior to
Speaker 3: this season. In Lamar's career ten point plus lead in
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter for Baltimore thirty one in two this season,
Speaker 3: Baltimore with a ten plus point lead in the fourth
Speaker 3: quarter two and three, they've already lost three times like that.
Speaker 3: Why does that matter for these purposes? If they are
Speaker 3: up by ten, I don't think they try to pour
Speaker 3: it on. I think that they are super conservative. Cleveland
Speaker 3: can get a garbage time backdoor cover. There's just a
Speaker 3: lot of ways that I think this is a Justin
Speaker 3: Tucker game. They try to What they don't want is
Speaker 3: for Lamar. They trust Lamar, but I think they want
Speaker 3: to protect him from himself from some of these late
Speaker 3: game mistakes he's been making. It's just too many points.
Speaker 3: So Cleveland, who is a good overall team right now
Speaker 3: with miserable quarterback play, You really do look at it,
Speaker 3: and as reprehensible as I think a lot of people
Speaker 3: fairly find Toshan Watson off the field, you look at
Speaker 3: it and you say, man if Deshaun had played all
Speaker 3: six of these games, are they five and one?
Speaker 4: Are that? You know what I mean?
Speaker 3: Are they one of the best teams in the league? Instead?
Speaker 3: Jacoby has made some critical late errors. They also you
Speaker 3: like betting on or I like betting on teams I
Speaker 3: know it's gonna sound counterintuitive coming off horrific performances because
Speaker 3: I think the public overreacts to it and you get
Speaker 3: a few points a line value. I think this should
Speaker 3: be Baltimore minus three and a half or four. It's
Speaker 3: Baltimore minus six. So we're jumping on Cleveland plus the
Speaker 3: six points that game. It doesn't seem like you hate.
Speaker 3: Seems like you don't. No, no, you like my logic. I
Speaker 3: agree with that one. Yeah, all right, Seattle getting five
Speaker 3: and a half at the Chargers. Okay, let's break down
Speaker 3: why we like Seattle. First one is this every Charger game,
Speaker 3: you have to keep in mind they will not have
Speaker 3: home field advantage even when they're at home. At best,
Speaker 3: it's a push. Seattle has become something of a national
Speaker 3: fan base because of the success of Legion of boom Era,
Speaker 3: so there's gonna be a lot of Seattle fans there. Secondarily,
Speaker 3: the Chargers' injuries are so overwhelming that a team. I know,
Speaker 3: they're four and two and they're happy to be four
Speaker 3: and two, but they are nothing like the team we
Speaker 3: thought they would be. The Chargers this year got so
Speaker 3: banged up in Week one. Since then, their best performance
Speaker 3: was their loss to the Chiefs because they actually were
Speaker 3: up ten in that game and then blew it. They
Speaker 3: get blown out by Jacksonville. There it's a three point
Speaker 3: game that comes down to they went for a fourth
Speaker 3: down and got it against Houston end up winning by ten.
Speaker 3: They escaped against Cleveland thanks to one of those horrific
Speaker 3: Jacoby moves or Jacoby picks, but they really escaped, winning
Speaker 3: by two.
Speaker 4: And then we just.
Speaker 3: Watched them against Denver. So the Chargers are on a
Speaker 3: short week. The offense and offensive line looks incredibly shaky. Seattle,
Speaker 3: on the other hand, I do believe that Gino is
Speaker 3: all year long. I don't think he's gonna have the
Speaker 3: highest pass rating in football all year long, but I
Speaker 3: do believe that Gino is going to continue to score points.
Speaker 3: Seattle this year has had you know, they scored thirty
Speaker 3: two against New Orleans, they scored forty eight against Detroit.
Speaker 3: This past week against Arizona, they only scored nineteen. However,
Speaker 3: that was a game where they could be super conservative
Speaker 3: because Arizona's offense is in such shambles. By the time
Speaker 3: people will have seen this, by the way Arizona will
Speaker 3: have played on Thursday, Night Football. We'll talk about them later.
Speaker 3: So I think Seattle could win the game outright. I
Speaker 3: also think if they're trailing by ten to eleven points,
Speaker 3: they are super live for a backdoor cover. I don't
Speaker 3: think the Chargers are gonna have a real home field.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of I think Seattle's defense is showing
Speaker 3: after being horrific early in the year, it is improving.
Speaker 3: Seattle plus five and a half in what will be
Speaker 3: essentially a neutral site game. I like them all right.
Speaker 3: Last one, Remember how I said I like betting on
Speaker 3: teams coming off their worst performance. The flip side to
Speaker 3: that is betting against teams coming off their best performance.
Speaker 3: Miami laying a full seven at home against Pittsburgh.
Speaker 4: I like the Dolphins, Okay.
Speaker 3: I went into last week's game feeling like Pittsburgh might
Speaker 3: be the worst team in the NFL. Right, they had
Speaker 3: played like the worst team in the NFL. They then
Speaker 3: beat the Bucks, and now a game that should be
Speaker 3: Miami by ten is Miami only by seven. Also, Miami
Speaker 3: was three and oh this year with victories over New England,
Speaker 3: who we now know is decent, Baltimore who's good, and Buffalo,
Speaker 3: who's excellent. In the three games two has played. They
Speaker 3: then had Teddy Bridgewater and then Skyler Thompson and then
Speaker 3: a Teddy Bridgewater Skyler Thompson combo and they went zero
Speaker 3: to three. Tyreek Hill has been better than advertised. He's
Speaker 3: been sensational. I think this is a game where let
Speaker 3: me check what the weather, you know what. I should
Speaker 3: have checked this before. My apologies for not doing that.
Speaker 3: I want to check what the weather is this weekend
Speaker 3: in Miami.
Speaker 4: If you gets so eighty.
Speaker 3: Two and Sonny is what Matt is telling me. So
Speaker 3: that's to me. You know ho, Miami set up their
Speaker 3: stadium to where the home benches are in the shade
Speaker 3: and the road benches are in the sun. So it's
Speaker 3: like twenty degrees hotter on the road sideline, and so
Speaker 3: I think that is damaging for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think Miami is gonna score twenty eight points. I
Speaker 3: don't see even in their win Pittsburgh only got to
Speaker 3: twenty against Tampa. I think Miami. I will lay the
Speaker 3: seven with the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 4: Go ahead. Soay, you're going with.
Speaker 5: Golf, Trevor Brissett, Gino and Post can cuss Tua.
Speaker 3: How do you feel about all right, you know what
Speaker 3: I had looked at it that way. You make some
Speaker 3: strong points I am going with, okay, but let's break
Speaker 3: that down. It's Goff against Dak in his first game
Speaker 3: back after a thumb surgery. Remember how horrible now he
Speaker 3: came back too soon. Russell Wilson looked in his first
Speaker 3: game back from that thumb surgery, and Russ, by the way,
Speaker 3: has never looked good since then. I don't blame thumb surgery.
Speaker 3: Trevor is the prince that was promised, first of all.
Speaker 3: Second of all, he's obviously better than Daniel Jones. Jacoby
Speaker 3: is like, yeah, Jacoby versus Lamar. But I said, I
Speaker 3: just think that line should be four, and it's six.
Speaker 3: Gino has been better than Justin Herbert this year, and
Speaker 3: Tua post concussion pre concussion at any point is better
Speaker 3: than what Pittsburgh's god at quarterback rookie Kenny Pickett and
Speaker 3: Mitch Trubisky. So it doesn't look great quarterback wise. But
Speaker 3: the only one where you're certain I'm at a disadvantage
Speaker 3: is Cleveland against Baltimore and I'm getting six points.
Speaker 4: Did you just openly say that Gino is better than
Speaker 4: Justin this year?
Speaker 3: He has been this year. Doson Herberts got cracked ribs,
Speaker 3: missing his left tackle. Keenan Allen's been out there, he's
Speaker 3: he has not taken the lead people thought he would take. Meanwhile,
Speaker 3: Gino's been excellent, So lock him in Detroit plus seven,
Speaker 3: Jacksonville minus three, Cleveland plus six, Seattle plus five and
Speaker 3: a half, Miami minus seven. Thankfully, there is only one
Speaker 3: of those picks that mirrors what Victor picked with his five. Victor,
Speaker 3: we call him oh for five.
Speaker 4: Vic.
Speaker 3: We're gonna say, I think you know what I was
Speaker 3: gonna say. We'll see if he can run it up
Speaker 3: to oh for ten. However, I don't want him to
Speaker 3: go oh for five this week because we do have
Speaker 3: one of the same picks Seattle. Uh, we will break down.
Speaker 3: There's seven other games this weekend. Wait more than seven,
Speaker 3: nine other games this weekend. You know what, Let's go
Speaker 3: ahead and yeah, nine other games this weekend, because four
Speaker 3: teams are on a bye with those are in three categories,
Speaker 3: stay away, be careful and perfectly priced. We'll do that.
Speaker 3: And also, at the end of the show, I have,
Speaker 3: for the first time in a couple of weeks, not
Speaker 3: a good teaser, but a great teaser and the one
Speaker 3: thing we've been good at this year, giving you guys
Speaker 3: survivor picks. We'll give you our survivor this week as well.
Speaker 3: All that's next, we'll try, all right, welcome back in
Speaker 3: What's Right? Nick Right? Subscribe on YouTube, on iTunes, on spotify,
Speaker 3: wherever your podcast, or watch us on YouTube as we
Speaker 3: approach eighty thousand subscribers where if we get to one
Speaker 3: hundred thousand Tomorrowsy gets a thousand bucks and a plaque
Speaker 3: from YouTube. It'd be unbelievable. Have you seen the it's
Speaker 3: gonna be.
Speaker 4: It'd be a.
Speaker 3: Really cool thing. Put it on it on your dating profiles?
Speaker 3: Does that be a picture? They'll think you're like some influencers,
Speaker 3: exactly what you should do. By the way, I think
Speaker 3: that's a I don't know what your relationship status is
Speaker 3: right now.
Speaker 4: I can already see the opportunities.
Speaker 3: I don't know if those accounts are dormant or not,
Speaker 3: but I'm sure at some point they'll be reactivated. Use
Speaker 3: it there, all right? For these other nine games three categories,
Speaker 3: stay away, be careful and perfectly priced, and I will
Speaker 3: alert you, as I feel is my duty. Which of
Speaker 3: these games are on Victor's card this weekend. All right,
Speaker 3: stay away first one, Tampa at Carolina. Carolina is getting
Speaker 3: eleven points, so you can see the three stayaways or
Speaker 3: Tampa Carolina, Chicago at New England, Green Bay at Washington.
Speaker 3: Let me explain them more. Tampa Carolina Carolina is getting eleven.
Speaker 3: I'm just flatly not laying more than a touchdown on
Speaker 3: the road with a team in Tampa Bay that thus
Speaker 3: far this year has given us no reason to believe
Speaker 3: there are eight team With that said, I can't bring
Speaker 3: myself to bet the Panthers. There's no I mean the
Speaker 3: there is. The Rams looked terrible for five weeks, played
Speaker 3: the Panthers and won by two touchdowns. Like I just
Speaker 3: I can't bring myself to bet Carolina just fired their coach,
Speaker 3: you know, PJ. Walker, Sam Darnold, the Quarck situation right now,
Speaker 3: go ahead.
Speaker 5: I've kind of noticed a trend with your betty You
Speaker 5: never you stay away from games that spread was more
Speaker 5: more than seven or eight.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I, Well, here's the thing. If I were
Speaker 3: a little sharper, I wouldn't stay away from those games.
Speaker 3: I'd bet the underdog in those games. It's so many
Speaker 3: points right, But the reason teams are underdog by that much,
Speaker 3: they're usually so bad that I just can't like earlier,
Speaker 3: you know, I bet Dallas plus I'm sorry, Detroit plus
Speaker 3: seven seven because it feels like Detroit's a semi viable team.
Speaker 3: Carolina is so bad. I can't bring myself to bet
Speaker 3: the eleven or to bet them even getting eleven. But
Speaker 3: I certainly can't recommend you lay eleven points with a
Speaker 3: Tampa team that is in shambles right now. And so
Speaker 3: what's up?
Speaker 4: I was thinking about like a teaser situation.
Speaker 3: But yeah, no, a ten point there's a ten point
Speaker 3: teaser option and tease Tampa all the way down to
Speaker 3: basically pick them. Tampa's going to be in a ton
Speaker 3: of those this weekend.
Speaker 4: I just.
Speaker 3: I don't trust Tampa enough right now, Like I don't
Speaker 3: think Caroline is gonna win. Don't get me wrong, but
Speaker 3: I'm not strong enough on it to even want to
Speaker 3: put Tampa in a teaser. I do have a teaser
Speaker 3: for you. This isn't one, all right? Next Chicago at
Speaker 3: New England, New England laying eight points. That's this is
Speaker 3: a very similar analysis to Tampa Caroline in this regard
Speaker 3: I'm just not gonna bet on the Bears. I'm not
Speaker 3: gonna bet on Justin Fields against a Bill Belichick coach team.
Speaker 3: I'm not doing it. With that said, New England laying
Speaker 3: more than a touchdown with a rookie quarterback, while he
Speaker 3: has played exceptionally, there's now more and more film on him,
Speaker 3: that's a stay away. I just I the I can't
Speaker 3: call it perfectly priced because I actually think the right
Speaker 3: number is probably New England minus nine and a half,
Speaker 3: which means I should bet them at minus eight, but
Speaker 3: I it's too many points. I'm certainly not betting Chicago,
Speaker 3: and so I'm that's a stay away. And the last
Speaker 3: stay away is Green Bay at Washington. This is a
Speaker 3: stay away for a number of reasons, but most notably
Speaker 3: is this one of the one of the telltale signs
Speaker 3: of a stay away game is did one of the
Speaker 3: teams just switch their quarterback? Washington?
Speaker 4: Did?
Speaker 3: The question with Washington is now that it's Taylor Heineke.
Speaker 3: Did they get better at quarterback? I don't know the answer.
Speaker 3: If they did, then Washington plus five is the right bet.
Speaker 3: Green Bay is you know, they've just lost the Jets
Speaker 3: and Giants and back to back weeks, blew the game
Speaker 3: against the Giants, got blown out by the Jets Washington.
Speaker 4: You're not seeing this is the time that they pick
Speaker 4: it up.
Speaker 3: I would, so, I absolutely would, except for the fact
Speaker 3: Heinike has played. You know, he's started for most of
Speaker 3: the year for Washington, they won the division, they made
Speaker 3: the playoffs. He played well. They didn't start most of
Speaker 3: the year. He started at the end of the year
Speaker 3: for them. Then he started in their playoff game and
Speaker 3: played well. Heineke, in his brief moments, has had flashes
Speaker 3: of oh, this guy's interesting. I need to watch Taylor
Speaker 3: Heinekee play a game in twenty twenty two before I
Speaker 3: bet either side of a Taylor Heinekee game. That's why
Speaker 3: it's in the stay away category for our audience. Just
Speaker 3: for the record, Victor has nobody in any of those games,
Speaker 3: so that's good to know. So you know what I mean,
Speaker 3: So you don't have to worry about any of that.
Speaker 3: There of our remaining seven games, four of them, is
Speaker 3: it four? Or did we already do one of them?
Speaker 3: Oh no, oh yeah, no, one of them. One of
Speaker 3: Victor's picks is the Giants. Of course, it is against
Speaker 3: my chegs. What a fool. What he's taken the G's
Speaker 3: Giants plus three? What a fool? All right, now, be careful,
Speaker 3: be careful. Three games in this category. There's Atlanta at Cincinnati,
Speaker 3: There's Kansas City at San Francisco, There's the Jets at Denver.
Speaker 3: All three of these games are going to have incredibly
Speaker 3: lopsided action on one side. That's why we are telling
Speaker 3: you to be careful. Two of these the side that
Speaker 3: I was thinking the general public is going to be on,
Speaker 3: and now I feel like I'm bullying a bit. Happened
Speaker 3: to be the side our guy Vickers on, which is
Speaker 3: a good little lit mistest.
Speaker 5: My man just woke up and came to work today
Speaker 5: to get I know, getting Well, that's zero for five.
Speaker 3: Man can't share over five's the group chat. Just can't
Speaker 3: do it, all right? First one, Atlanta plus six at Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: Atlanta is six and oh against the spread.
Speaker 4: They can't continue.
Speaker 3: Here's what I know. Everybody is going to be on
Speaker 3: the falcons. Cincinnati has not looked overly impressive. They are
Speaker 3: laying almost a full touchdown. Everyone is going to be
Speaker 3: on the falcons. We are telling you to be careful.
Speaker 3: We're not telling you to bet Cincinnati. Atlanta's run game
Speaker 3: has been excellent. Atlanta right now is a fringe playoff team, amazingly.
Speaker 3: What we are telling you is the whole world is
Speaker 3: going to be on Atlanta plus six and going seven
Speaker 3: and zero against the spread seems incredibly difficult, but we
Speaker 3: should deal with each week in and of itself. Nobody's
Speaker 3: going to betting on Cincinnati. There's a reason this line
Speaker 3: is not moved significantly. Atlanta plus six is a very
Speaker 3: dangerous sign. This next one hurts my heart to put
Speaker 3: in this category. The entire world is.
Speaker 4: Going to be on the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: San Francisco is banged up. The Chiefs are coming off
Speaker 3: a loss.
Speaker 4: I'm not being careful on that one. I'm gonna just
Speaker 4: I wouldn't say that right now.
Speaker 3: You're betting the Chiefs.
Speaker 5: Man, Yes, they're just coming off that, coming off that
Speaker 5: lost to Buffalo.
Speaker 4: They gotta put their foot down. Maybe.
Speaker 3: See that's I mean, I trust me, That's how I
Speaker 3: feel too. San Francisco is so banged up now. San
Speaker 3: Francisco is getting some people back. They can't see laying
Speaker 3: less than a field.
Speaker 4: They are in San Francisco.
Speaker 3: They aren't Yeah, they're in San Francisco, And let me
Speaker 3: just tell you what I see happening in this game.
Speaker 3: I absolutely see a scenario where the Chiefs control this
Speaker 3: football game and they're up three with the ball midway
Speaker 3: through the third quarter, and they drive the length of
Speaker 3: the field. Mahomes looks great, they score a touchdown, they
Speaker 3: go up nine, and Butcker misses an extra point and
Speaker 3: it's like, well, they're still up nine, they'll be fine,
Speaker 3: and all of a sudden there's a late San Francisco
Speaker 3: garbage time touchdown. The Chiefs are in control the entire time,
Speaker 3: and they win the football game. Uh what we find
Speaker 3: that scenario right? Twenty six, twenty four And you're like,
Speaker 3: how did I not cover?
Speaker 4: What? In the how did I not This guy should
Speaker 4: write for the Simpsons?
Speaker 3: Okay, well thanks, you see, I just I'm the two
Speaker 3: and a half looks too good to be true. Be careful.
Speaker 3: And lastly, the Jets have blown out back to mac opponents.
Speaker 3: The Broncos have the offense in football, their quarterback is
Speaker 3: banged up every which way. No one is gonna be
Speaker 3: betting Denver laying a point. Everyone is gonna be on
Speaker 3: the Jets, including Vic. Be careful, America, that Broncos defense
Speaker 3: has been as good as the offense has been bad.
Speaker 3: Zach Wilson, despite being three and zero, has not played well.
Speaker 3: I am not out here picking the Broncos to win.
Speaker 3: What I am saying is all three of these games,
Speaker 3: the road team is gonna be getting seventy five percent
Speaker 3: of the public money, So be careful. I'm adamant about that.
Speaker 3: What's up?
Speaker 5: So you're going against Denver or I guess you're not
Speaker 5: going against Denver. You're going against the Jets coming off
Speaker 5: a really good win, and you're betting on Denver. I
Speaker 5: guess you're saying I'm saying.
Speaker 3: I'm saying, be careful like that. What I'm saying is
Speaker 3: the whole world's gonna be on the Jets. Everyone's gonna
Speaker 3: be on the Jets getting points on a short week.
Speaker 3: We've watched their offense all year be terrible. Just be careful,
Speaker 3: That's all I'm saying. Everyone's gonna be on.
Speaker 5: I feel like it's just both. It's far left for
Speaker 5: the Jets because it's just.
Speaker 4: Like they came off the win and Denver came off
Speaker 4: a bad loss.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, so that that's what the general public sees,
Speaker 3: you know, what's a shame about my terrible record this
Speaker 3: year against the spread? I looked it up this morning.
Speaker 3: If I simply just bet the be careful games, the
Speaker 3: side that I'm telling people the opposite side where i'm
Speaker 3: saying so in this instance, I said Atlanta, Kin City
Speaker 3: the Jets is where all the money's going to be.
Speaker 3: If I had just bet the other side of all
Speaker 3: of those games each week, I'd have a winning record
Speaker 3: like the when I'm telling you the general public is
Speaker 3: all going to be on one side, be careful. If
Speaker 3: I'd have just said screw it, I'm going the other way,
Speaker 3: but I haven't had the courage for it. All right, Lastly,
Speaker 3: we'll be quick here. Perfectly priced New Orleans and Arizona.
Speaker 3: I've decided we're not going to spend time on these
Speaker 3: Thursday night games because we haven't seen them, but the
Speaker 3: audience has by the time it's posted. I do think
Speaker 3: this is just about the right line. New Orleans has
Speaker 3: been mediocre at best, Arizona has been a train wreck.
Speaker 3: So but they're at home. They do have the more
Speaker 3: talented roster, so I do think they should be laying
Speaker 3: just under a field goal. But you guys will have
Speaker 3: already seen the game Arizona. I'm sorry. Indy at Tennessee.
Speaker 3: I think Indie and Tennessee are essentially equivalent talented teams
Speaker 3: right now. The Vegas is not giving you the full
Speaker 3: three points. That's probably right. I think that's perfectly priced.
Speaker 3: And Houston at the Raiders, I think the Raiders win
Speaker 3: that game by a touchdown. I think that's perfectly priced.
Speaker 3: Is there anything you want to die?
Speaker 4: Well? First off, yeah, shouldn't you. Shouldn't you want to
Speaker 4: fade Matt Ryan after his first good game?
Speaker 3: Maybe? But I don't really trust Tennessee either, and so
Speaker 3: I think this is maybe the perfect price on that
Speaker 3: is Tennessee minus three. It's minus two and a half.
Speaker 3: It feels just right. And what's your other question?
Speaker 4: Is seven too much for against the Texans? No?
Speaker 3: And in fact, I think the line's just right. But
Speaker 3: I really like the Raiders. As a teaser leg, we
Speaker 3: will give you our teaser, our lock, and the one
Speaker 3: thing we've been great at this year, our survivor pick
Speaker 3: all that's coming up next.
Speaker 4: What's right? All right?
Speaker 3: Welcome back in final segment. What's right?
Speaker 1: Nick?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 3: This is where we give you our lock, our exotic,
Speaker 3: our teaser. By the way, last week, Demanse and the
Speaker 3: crew made a bet. They called it Nick's perfect week,
Speaker 3: and it was the Jags win, the Chiefs win, and
Speaker 3: the Chiefs Bills game to hit the over that went
Speaker 3: over three boys. That was zero for three. Chiefs lost,
Speaker 3: Jags lost, and that game was under by ten points.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 3: The only saving grace of you guys giving me that
Speaker 3: bet was shortly before kickoff. I bet under in the
Speaker 3: Chiefs game. I was like, the whole world's on the over.
Speaker 3: Both teams are gonna run the ball because they're both
Speaker 3: defense is going to be playing the past. And that
Speaker 3: thing was zero zero after the first quarter. So now
Speaker 3: two red zone turnovers helped me there, But that was
Speaker 3: the one saving grace. All right, right, move time my lock.
Speaker 3: We've lost five in a row. We've lost five blocks
Speaker 3: in a row. We are locking up. Oh look, Trevor
Speaker 3: Lawrence is in the graphic.
Speaker 4: I mean he's got to be at this point.
Speaker 3: He's not the lock though. This week, the prince that
Speaker 3: was promised is not our lock. Instead is a man
Speaker 3: who suffered the worst injury in the NFL this year
Speaker 3: to a tongue of ailoa in his first game back
Speaker 3: Miami minus seven against a bad Steelers team that people
Speaker 3: right now are overvaluing because they found a way to
Speaker 3: beat Tampa Miami minus seven. Lock it up, let's you
Speaker 3: with me on it? You with me on it?
Speaker 4: Hey, your wins winsman.
Speaker 3: Okay, there we go. I like to hear that all
Speaker 3: right Now, time for Survivor. It's a very interesting Survivor week.
Speaker 3: There are a lot of decent options this this year
Speaker 3: in Survivor, we have given you the Ravens, the Packers,
Speaker 3: the Vikings, the Chargers, the Jags moment one moment there,
Speaker 3: and then the Rams we lost on the Jacks. However,
Speaker 3: Survivor pools are one thing that I happen to be
Speaker 3: exceptional at. And I'm still in a massive one that
Speaker 3: started with twenty one thousand people. It is down to
Speaker 3: two hundred and sixty people. I have two entries left
Speaker 3: in it, so we're going to continue to give you
Speaker 3: our pick. So we put the bills off the board.
Speaker 3: As the week the Jags lost, a lot of people
Speaker 3: would have had the bills. So we're going to play
Speaker 3: by the same fair rules. Those teams we can't use.
Speaker 3: I would strongly recommend and I almost don't want to
Speaker 3: say that if I gotta tell America something real quick
Speaker 3: that Survivor pool that I'm in once it gets to
Speaker 3: under one hundred people, I don't know that I can
Speaker 3: continue to give out Survivor picks on this show because
Speaker 3: some of the people that are in that pool know
Speaker 3: who I am, and they're going to be able to
Speaker 3: kind of trail my picks. We're closed, We're closed, thank you,
Speaker 3: Sorry this listen. This is one of the things. Thank you.
Speaker 3: There's one of the things happens when you do this
Speaker 3: show from a store and Dendze forgets to lock the
Speaker 3: door and our security is out next door getting a sandwich.
Speaker 3: That's bad timing demands locked the door, our security guard
Speaker 3: isn't at the bodega getting again in a bacon, egg
Speaker 3: and cheese, and all of a sudden, somebody came in
Speaker 3: to buy some of these wonderful clothes. All right, back
Speaker 3: to the Survivor situation. Right now, though I can still
Speaker 3: give out the picks, I like, there are two teams
Speaker 3: that I because you got to when you're at this
Speaker 3: point the season on Survivor, you have to keep in
Speaker 3: mind I want to use a team that I'm not
Speaker 3: gonna want to use later in the year. This week,
Speaker 3: the survivor pick is the New England Patriots at home
Speaker 3: against the Chicago Bears. I believe that's the Monday night
Speaker 3: football game. I also do like the Raiders a bit
Speaker 3: in Survivor, which actually leads us to our teaser. Our
Speaker 3: teaser is our lock and our two survivors, but our
Speaker 3: official Survivor pick is the Patriots. The Raiders teas down
Speaker 3: to minus one. New England teas down to minus one
Speaker 3: and a half, Miami teased down to minus one. A
Speaker 3: three team six point teaser plus one forty. That's where
Speaker 3: it is. Play those what do you mean, parlay those?
Speaker 3: It is parlayed, and to a teaser, all three of
Speaker 3: them we're taking. They're all favored by seven or seven
Speaker 3: and a half to teaser. So now instead of being
Speaker 3: favored by seven, they're favored by one. You move the
Speaker 3: line six points and they all It all has to happen.
Speaker 3: So Miami's gotta win. New England's gotta win, The Raiders
Speaker 3: have to win. They all have to win by at
Speaker 3: least one or one and a half, so essentially just win.
Speaker 3: It's plus one forty. That's our teaser this week that
Speaker 3: My Friends is gonna hit. We don't have a recap
Speaker 3: for you of Demonda's picks last week because he didn't
Speaker 3: make any. He's somehow found a way though, to still
Speaker 3: bet games and lose both of them. It's bad job
Speaker 3: by him. One of these weekends, he's gonna have a
Speaker 3: winning week and everyone's making fun of me, and we're
Speaker 3: making fun of Victor Demonday's Oh for the season on
Speaker 3: winning weekends. What's the offer this week?
Speaker 4: All right? Man?
Speaker 5: So sometimes you just want to see the world burn.
Speaker 5: So we've put together an annoying fan based team parlay. Yeah,
Speaker 5: so we've got Cowboys minus seven, Patriots minus eight, Yankees
Speaker 5: win Game three versus Houston, and Philly wins Game four
Speaker 5: versus San Diego.
Speaker 4: At plus eleven forty.
Speaker 3: I like all parts of that to varying degrees, except
Speaker 3: I told you I like Detroit plus seven, so I
Speaker 3: can't have the Cowboys minus seven in it. Detroit plus
Speaker 3: seven is one of my picks. I reject your offer,
Speaker 3: even though it's plus more than a thousand, I reject it.
Speaker 4: That's all you had to say.
Speaker 3: Oh, now, Demonsi's in character. And then Demonzi was supposed
Speaker 3: to be in this character the whole time for going
Speaker 3: to be the Godfather guy and is trying to be
Speaker 3: Vito Corleone. Instead, he just gets in character at the
Speaker 3: very end when he's off camera. There's our show for
Speaker 3: the week again. The five picks this week are Detroit
Speaker 3: plus seven, Jacksonville minus three, Cleveland plus six, Seattle plus
Speaker 3: five and a half, Miami minus seven. Our lock of
Speaker 3: the week is Miami minus seven. Our Survivor Pikets, the Patriots,
Speaker 3: and our one team this week. Our one exonics is
Speaker 3: a six point teaser of the Raiders, the Patriots and
Speaker 3: the Dolphins. This was episode eighty six of or eighty five.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure which of what's right with Nick Wright.
Speaker 3: We'll be back on Monday, hopefully a little richer than
Speaker 3: we are right now. See you guys then