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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh Rio to Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to the country suis Exam Channel one nineties and

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Speaker 1: around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus AB and Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning, eight thirty

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street. I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keane.

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Speaker 1: We are in Washington, d C. Today Super Wednesday are

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Speaker 1: follow up to the Super Tuesday voting. Good morning to

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Speaker 1: everyone here listening on FM in the Washington and Baltimore areas. UH.

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Speaker 1: The focus in the political world is on the Super

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Speaker 1: Tuesday primaries on Wall Street. It is on the economic data.

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Speaker 1: And we have some new numbers out this morning. Our

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Speaker 1: economic indicators brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When

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Speaker 1: it's time to change the conversation, talk with a broker dealer,

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Speaker 1: r I A that's ready to listen calleight six six

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Speaker 1: four six two three six three or is it Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: dot com to learn more? Number of the morning A

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Speaker 1: DP out fifteen minutes ago. UH. They found, according to

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Speaker 1: their calculations, two hundred and fourteen thousand more private sector

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Speaker 1: jobs were added in the month of February. That is

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Speaker 1: more than the one hundred and ninety thousand forecast by

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Speaker 1: economists and more than the one and ninety three thousand

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Speaker 1: revised estimate for January. So good news on the employment

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Speaker 1: front if you believe a DP is a measure of anything,

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Speaker 1: and economists are divided about that, but it is another

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Speaker 1: strong number along with the better number, not strong but

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Speaker 1: better number from I s M yesterday. Dean Mackie is

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Speaker 1: the chief in chief economists for point seventy two Asset Management.

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Speaker 1: He joins US now. Dean, Uh, if it were not

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Speaker 1: for the heart attack that the stock market had at

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Speaker 1: the first of the year, would the FED be raising

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Speaker 1: rates at the March meeting. I think it's pretty clear

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Speaker 1: if you only looked at the economic data and not

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Speaker 1: at the markets, the Fed would be raising rates in March.

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Speaker 1: The job growth has, you know, st a bid in

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Speaker 1: the payroll numbers, but it kind of had to after

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Speaker 1: plus thousands in the fourth quarter on average, but did

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Speaker 1: nothing worries. Some jobless claims look fine, and uh, the

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Speaker 1: I s M looks to have bottomed out and and

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Speaker 1: and seems to be picking up some steam, so there's

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Speaker 1: nothing in the economic datas and and further inflation, core

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Speaker 1: inflation has picked up as well, So if if the

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Speaker 1: FED were not paying attention to markets, they certainly would

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Speaker 1: be raising rates. In my view, well do they need

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Speaker 1: How much attention do they need to pay to markets?

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Speaker 1: Especially since we've seen markets sort of rebound over the

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Speaker 1: next last few days. I think that the risk there's

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Speaker 1: a risk that the said pays too much attention to

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Speaker 1: market volatility and and you know, response too quickly when

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Speaker 1: when markets run into difficulty. Um now the FED would

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Speaker 1: say they need to do that because that market volatility

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Speaker 1: could affect economic growth. I myself am a little skeptical

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Speaker 1: that the kind of volatility we've seen is really going

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Speaker 1: to cause a severe slowdown in the economy. Where are

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Speaker 1: we on calculating exports and inports into what our central

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Speaker 1: bank will do? Are we using a purely domestic prism

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Speaker 1: or do they have to worry about trade and for

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Speaker 1: that matter, inventory adjustments. I think they do need to

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Speaker 1: worry about all of that. But the way I look

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Speaker 1: at the US right now, consumer spending looks to be

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Speaker 1: on a solid growth track. It looks like it's going

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Speaker 1: to be three percent or or possibly even better in

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Speaker 1: the first quarter. And as long as you have that,

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Speaker 1: you know, trade can be a drag, inventories can be

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Speaker 1: somewhat of a drag, and you still get to to

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Speaker 1: two and a half percent growth um. That's more than

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Speaker 1: enough to keep pushing the unemployment right down, to keep

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Speaker 1: job growth solid um. So with consumer spending on that

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Speaker 1: kind of a track, it's it's very difficult for the

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Speaker 1: economy to fall below below its potential growth rate. What

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Speaker 1: are the ramifications if the said plauses, if they're under

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Speaker 1: the kind of pressure that Mike and I see in

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Speaker 1: our mail from people, it's ay d Mack, he's out

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Speaker 1: of his mind. They shouldn't raise rates. What what is

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Speaker 1: the price if they pause? Well, I think the one

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Speaker 1: reason they will pause is the price is lower than

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Speaker 1: it than it is at certain points in the cycle.

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Speaker 1: So while inflation has risen, it is below target still,

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Speaker 1: and the FED doesn't mind if it goes somewhat above

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Speaker 1: target as long as it's you know, under control. So

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's a huge cost to the feed

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Speaker 1: of of waiting. I think the risk really is down

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Speaker 1: the road, as if the unemployment rate keeps following in

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Speaker 1: the way that I think it will. At some point

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Speaker 1: the Feed is probably going to have to tighten more

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Speaker 1: aggressively than they than they expect. But the more they

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Speaker 1: pause them, the longer they wait, the more likely that

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Speaker 1: outcome becomes when is down the road though, because the

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Speaker 1: markets seem to be discounting that well into the future. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I would say, you know, I think the unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: is going to be close to four percent by the

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Speaker 1: end of the year, and the you know, with that

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Speaker 1: kind of backdrop, if wage growth continues to pick up

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Speaker 1: as as I expect it will, and core inflation continues

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Speaker 1: to drift higher, the FED is going to be increasingly

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Speaker 1: uncomfortable having rates close to zero. And so this is

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Speaker 1: probably a story for rather than this year where the

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Speaker 1: FED has to pick up the pace. But the longer

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Speaker 1: they wait, if the more likely that becomes. Well quickly,

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Speaker 1: if we get a three nine print and when you

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Speaker 1: sort in a new terminal value, a more damp and

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Speaker 1: animal spirit, what rate would the FED uses their target?

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Speaker 1: It's not the rate of two thousand six, is it?

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Speaker 1: I mean, in terms of the terms the long rent, right, yeah, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. Yeah, I think you know,

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Speaker 1: the fed's estimate is three and a half percent. I

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Speaker 1: think that's that's reasonable. Um, they won't necessarily go there quickly,

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Speaker 1: but I think that is a reasonable place to expect

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Speaker 1: them to go over time. Dean mackew, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: With point seven two. With the beginning of an update,

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Speaker 1: three and a half percent just seems miles away distant. Well,

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Speaker 1: at the rate we've been going, it won't be that

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Speaker 1: distant that quickly. Whether you get to four percent by

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Speaker 1: the end of the year or not. That maybe a

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Speaker 1: little aggressive, but it's certainly moving in that direction. And

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Speaker 1: he's not the only one that's saying that FED may

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Speaker 1: have to move faster. Absolutely, Dean mackiw with point seven two,

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Speaker 1: and of course, really beginning with all the distractions of Washington,

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Speaker 1: three days of coverage of the American Jobs Report with

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Speaker 1: the a d P number today, Bill Gross schedule to

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Speaker 1: join us on Friday, some other good guests as well,

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Speaker 1: to give you perspective to go beneath the headline data

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Speaker 1: on the American labor economy futures at negative six, DOW

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Speaker 1: futures negative forty seven, that it's time to hear from

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Speaker 1: Michael Barr with the latest World in national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Donald Trump says he is expanding

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party, even as many of its leaders have

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Speaker 1: distanced themselves from him. Trump won in seven states during

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Speaker 1: Super Tuesday, Ted Cruz one in three states, while Marco

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Speaker 1: Rubio chalked up his first victory of the campaign in Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: The magic number to win the Republican presidential nomination is

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Speaker 1: one thousand, two hundred thirty seven. Right now, Trump has

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Speaker 1: two hundred seventy four delegates or two eighty five. I

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Speaker 1: should say Cruz has a hundred forty nine and Rubio

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Speaker 1: at eighty two. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who won seven states

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Speaker 1: last night, tried to turn Donald Trump's to make America

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Speaker 1: great against logan on its head. Clinton told supporters country

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Speaker 1: instead must be made whole again. Bernie Sanders picked up

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Speaker 1: victories in four states, including his home state of Vermont.

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Speaker 1: For the Democrats, Clinton has at least a thousand five delegates,

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Speaker 1: Sanders has three hundred seventy three. It will take at

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Speaker 1: least two thousand, eight hundred eighty three delegates to win

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Speaker 1: the Democratic presidential nomination. Vice President Joe Biden during a

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Speaker 1: Black History Month reception in Washington last night, had some

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Speaker 1: sarcasm for Donald Trump. I think we really are have

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Speaker 1: a chance to move toward a more perfect union incrementally,

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Speaker 1: I really really knew, so I want to thank Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: The U S. Geological surveys has a seven point nine

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Speaker 1: earthquake has hit off Sumatra. Indonesian officials say the quake

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Speaker 1: is about seven hundred sixty three miles southwest of Qualitampoor.

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Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our

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Speaker 1: journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from

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Speaker 1: around the world. Michael Barr, Mike Tom, thank you, Michel.

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Speaker 1: Time now for the Bloomberg NBC Sports up Day for

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Speaker 1: that week, bringing John stash Our. John alright, Mike. Not

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Speaker 1: as if the Yankees didn't know what they were getting

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Speaker 1: when they acquired reliever all This Chapman from Cincinnati. The

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Speaker 1: Dodgers backed off a trade after looking of Chapman's involvement

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Speaker 1: in a domestic violence and firearms situation last fall. Baseball

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Speaker 1: has suspended Chapman for thirty games. You can pitch in

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Speaker 1: spring training, then not again until May nine. Will forefeit

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Speaker 1: one point eight million in salary. Chapman said in a

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Speaker 1: statement that while he never harmed his girlfriend, he should

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Speaker 1: have used better judgment than going from bad to worse

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Speaker 1: For the Knicks, Fans at the garden booed early and

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Speaker 1: often a one oh four eighty five lost to Portland.

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Speaker 1: One courtside fan was getting on Carmelo Anthony, who then

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Speaker 1: offered the fans some advice right there, actually the Monty back,

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Speaker 1: I mean at that point he called at me and said,

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Speaker 1: tell me that you'd never come into another game. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you just don't. You just don't want to hear that.

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Speaker 1: So appoint it's an owner in total. You deal with

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Speaker 1: that way, maybe you even get some money back. Because

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Speaker 1: have lost fifteen of eighteen second game and as many

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Speaker 1: nights the Staples Center for the Nets. After losing with

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Speaker 1: the Clippers, they came back lost to the Lakers, who

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Speaker 1: have been on an eight game losing streak one oh seven,

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Speaker 1: one oh one. Kobe Bryant didn't play, but rookie D'Angelo

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Speaker 1: Russell didn't scored thirty nine points. Islanders on a time

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Speaker 1: as Hicky going midway through the third period one three

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Speaker 1: two in Vancouver. All three goals actually went in off

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Speaker 1: Vancouver players like goal by Carolina and then another. The

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Speaker 1: Hurricanes beat the Devil's three to one, but the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: NBC Sports update on John Stashhamford, Johns, thanks so much, greatly,

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Speaker 1: appreciate that. Good morning FM here in Washington. Bloomberg twelve hundred, Boston,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven CREO, New York. See you tomorrow. We'll move

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Speaker 1: back up the coast tonight and be with you very

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Speaker 1: much tomorrow morning. We're a storm. Is a storm. We're

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Speaker 1: moving up the coast. We're moving up the coast. Is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought to you by the New

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Speaker 1: Yor Chamber of Commerce. Mining agriculture opportunities abound in Nigeria.

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Speaker 1: Learn about protective investments in Africa's most active markets. Thursday,

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Speaker 1: March third, Breakfast at eight am twenty West forty fourth Street.

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Speaker 1: Breakfast is free