WEBVTT - Greenlight Capital Pres/Portfolio Mgr/Founder David Einhorn Talks Robin Hood Investors Conference

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg Television, is working

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<v Speaker 2>with the Robinhood Foundation for a stock picking competition for

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<v Speaker 2>ten thousand dollars that will go to charity in order

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<v Speaker 2>to fight poverty in New York. You pick a long

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<v Speaker 2>and a short investment and you can register through Monday,

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<v Speaker 2>October twenty eighth. You can sign up at Robinhood dot org.

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<v Speaker 2>The competition is for charitable purposes only and does not

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<v Speaker 2>constitute financial or investment advice. For more about the competition

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<v Speaker 2>and his own investment choices, we are joined now by

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<v Speaker 2>David Einhorn of green Light Capital, and perhaps first talk

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<v Speaker 2>about this program for a minute. Pick a ticker. You

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<v Speaker 2>have a sensorially gamified charity. Why did you guys do

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<v Speaker 2>it this way? You're closely involved with the Robinhood Foundation.

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<v Speaker 2>And what do you expect out of the program.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we just thought it would be a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>of a fun thing to do in conjunction with the

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<v Speaker 3>annual investor conference that's been going on for eleven or

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<v Speaker 3>twelve years. The idea is is anybody who wants to

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<v Speaker 3>participate and donate ten thousand dollars. Pick along, pick a short,

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<v Speaker 3>see how it does over the next six months, and

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<v Speaker 3>whoever wins can gets to choose which Robinhood supported organization

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<v Speaker 3>get gets a chunk of the money.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, did you participate? Are you picking it on a

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<v Speaker 2>long and a short for this game?

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<v Speaker 4>One hundred percent? Of course?

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<v Speaker 1>What are they?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I'm not the shorts.

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<v Speaker 3>People are allowed to keep confidential, and I'm going to

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<v Speaker 3>keep mind confidential. But I'm going to pick Peloton, which

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<v Speaker 3>is the stock that I pitched yesterday at the Robin

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<v Speaker 3>Good conference.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, talk a little more about that, because from what

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<v Speaker 2>I understand, you came dressed in full gear to make

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<v Speaker 2>this a pitch to the audience there. What is it

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<v Speaker 2>about Peloton that you like right now? I understand that

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<v Speaker 2>you said that it's undervalued, but what's the catalyst?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it M and A or something else that you're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think there's a lot to like with Peloton.

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<v Speaker 3>They have a large customer base that hays forty four

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<v Speaker 3>dollars a.

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<v Speaker 4>Month and is extremely engaged.

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<v Speaker 3>Ride's an average to thirteen times a month and has

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<v Speaker 3>very very low attrition. So most subscription type models like

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<v Speaker 3>this trade a really high valuations. Peloton has suffered over

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<v Speaker 3>the last number of years because they thought they were

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<v Speaker 3>going to be a much bigger company than they've turned

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<v Speaker 3>out to be. Maturity has hit them a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>sooner than they expected, and they had a cost base

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<v Speaker 3>which was entirely based on Hey, the only thing that

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<v Speaker 3>matters to us is revenues, because you know, Wall Street

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<v Speaker 3>values us on price to sales and stuff like that,

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<v Speaker 3>and so, as I said at the conference yesterday, there's

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of cost cutting for Peloton to do. Peloton

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<v Speaker 3>probably needs to spend more time on the Peloton and

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<v Speaker 3>if they do that, the margins will improve a lot,

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<v Speaker 3>and the stock is relatively inexpensive relative to other types

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<v Speaker 3>of subscription model type of companies decides they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>get a new CEO who should be announced, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>sometime relatively soon, and in the worst case, if they're

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<v Speaker 3>not really able to turn around. This is certainly the

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<v Speaker 3>type of company that there's a number of larger companies

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<v Speaker 3>I think that would be very interested in owning this

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<v Speaker 3>if it came.

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<v Speaker 1>Down to that. David, I also want you to weigh

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<v Speaker 1>in over here.

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<v Speaker 2>It's interesting as we speak right now, Tesla had come

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<v Speaker 2>out with earnings over the last twenty four hours, the

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<v Speaker 2>stock is up more than nineteen percent at the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been a stock that you have been short before.

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<v Speaker 2>Wondering what you think about this stock at this valuation

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<v Speaker 2>here and whether you would ever go short again.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we don't really comment on our short positions anymore.

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<v Speaker 3>We stopped doing that a few years ago, and so

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<v Speaker 3>whether Tesla is a shorter potential short, it's not something

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<v Speaker 3>that I'm going to discuss.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you speak to the valuation as it stands now

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<v Speaker 2>and how it fits into the broader story around stock

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<v Speaker 2>market valuations right.

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<v Speaker 4>Now now, I'm really not going to go anywhere near that.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's talk about valuations more generally. Because of course,

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<v Speaker 2>the AI trade in general has been a very hot one.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm wondering if you think that if some of these

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<v Speaker 2>stocks have gone too far, and how you're playing the

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<v Speaker 2>AI trade.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, the thing is is we don't have to,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, bet against things that seem like they're expensive

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<v Speaker 3>when there's so much excitement around them. So these stocks

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<v Speaker 3>are very high. There's a lot of enthusiasm. There's been

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<v Speaker 3>enthusiasm for a long time. I think the market as

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<v Speaker 3>a whole is really, you know, quite expensive considering we're

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<v Speaker 3>a strong part of the economic cycle and we're about

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<v Speaker 3>twenty three times earnings, so it's it's hard to wind

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<v Speaker 3>up for me as somebody who actually paid a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of attention to what I.

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<v Speaker 4>Pay for things to want to chase those things.

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<v Speaker 3>We do have a couple of companies that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe have options on AI coming our direction. So for example,

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<v Speaker 3>we own HP which makes PCs, and PCs are due

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<v Speaker 3>for a regular replacement cycle because a lot we're bought

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<v Speaker 3>after COVID in twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, and we

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<v Speaker 3>could have a better than normal cycle if if AIPCS

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<v Speaker 3>turn out to be a thing. I have only traces

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<v Speaker 3>about ten times earnings, pase a three and something percent dividend.

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<v Speaker 4>They're spending one hundred percent of recash.

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<v Speaker 3>Flow returning it to shareholders, so you get about seven

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<v Speaker 3>percent buyback. So we can see you know, mid teens

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<v Speaker 3>high teams growth for the next couple of years, just

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<v Speaker 3>as you go through a cycle share account reduction, and

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<v Speaker 3>so this you're paying just ten times journeys, which is

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<v Speaker 3>very reasonable from our perspective.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, I totally understand that you don't want to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about individual short wagers. However, will you kind of

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<v Speaker 2>explain the thinking around short investing right now? There are

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of people who feel very burned in the

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<v Speaker 2>way that markets have really melted up in a large way.

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<v Speaker 2>What does the environment for shorting look like to you

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<v Speaker 2>and what are the kind of parameters that you think around.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we're actually having a pretty decent year in our

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<v Speaker 3>short book, particularly consider how the market has gone up.

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<v Speaker 3>We made a change a couple of years ago in

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<v Speaker 3>response to sort of the meme stuff, and what we

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<v Speaker 3>basically figured out is that the right tail for your

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<v Speaker 3>best short ideas has changed. So it used to be

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<v Speaker 3>I'd want to put the most money in whatever I

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<v Speaker 3>thought my best idea is, But your best idea is

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<v Speaker 3>probably something that you think is going to go to zero,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's where the crazy stuff goes on. So we

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<v Speaker 3>kind of flipped the short portfolio in the sense that

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<v Speaker 3>our bigger shorts tend to be more boring and our

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<v Speaker 3>smaller shorts are tend to be a little bit more exciting,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's enabled us to maybe manage the volatility relating

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<v Speaker 3>to the occasional craziness that hits a one stock or another,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly in the more volatile and probably going to zero

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<v Speaker 3>part of the short pastard.

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<v Speaker 2>While we're talking about volatility as well, I know you

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<v Speaker 2>this year had written two investors basically saying that it

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't really matter who would win the election when it

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<v Speaker 2>comes down to the markets more directly. But I am

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<v Speaker 2>still really curious about how you're thinking about the election

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<v Speaker 2>less than two weeks away.

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<v Speaker 1>Uncertainty around how long it will take to know what

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<v Speaker 1>the votes.

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<v Speaker 2>Really come out to be at the end of the day.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you think about that uncertainty and investing around it.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, look, I don't know how to handicap, but the

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<v Speaker 3>only real protect projection I'm going to make about the

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<v Speaker 3>election is it's going to be held on November fifth,

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<v Speaker 3>and beyond that, it's really hard to know. The election

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<v Speaker 3>seems to be very close, and you know, I don't

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<v Speaker 3>know whether we'll have a winner anytime soon. I don't

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<v Speaker 3>know whether either candidate is preparing to concede if it's

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<v Speaker 3>a close election, So we'll just have to kind of

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<v Speaker 3>see how that plays. I'm taking a relatively conservative posture

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<v Speaker 3>into the election. I view this as a potentially uncertain event.

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<v Speaker 2>Is there anything that could take off after the election.

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<v Speaker 2>We hear over and over that investors are taking a

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<v Speaker 2>risk off tone before that time.

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<v Speaker 1>So what starts to take off after Well, I.

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<v Speaker 3>Think if you have a clear winner and it's you know,

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<v Speaker 3>in the country, it's clear what direction the country is

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<v Speaker 3>going to go, I'm confident that investors will chase whatever

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<v Speaker 3>is perceived to be a beneficiary of whichever candidate that

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<v Speaker 3>happens to be.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to get your macro view on this as well,

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<v Speaker 2>because a lot of people are worried about the direction

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<v Speaker 2>of inflation. You saw the ten year really a trail

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<v Speaker 2>higher in recent days. Some people think it's a Trump trade.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you think about the direction of travel for

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<v Speaker 2>bonds the macro markets more largely on the heels of

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<v Speaker 2>the selection.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Look, I think that I think we're in We

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<v Speaker 3>moved from a secular deflation for many many years into

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<v Speaker 3>secular inflation, and we've had a you know, a reduction

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<v Speaker 3>in inflation from the peak from a couple of years ago.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think a lot of that is kind of

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<v Speaker 3>run its course, and so there's a decent chance we

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<v Speaker 3>should have inflation re accelerate, probably as soon as the

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<v Speaker 3>next inflation reading as far as I can tell, there's

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<v Speaker 3>still rents that have to flow through. Commodity prices are

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<v Speaker 3>getting stronger, and I think there's some other indications, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>labor prices still going up. You see what's going on

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<v Speaker 3>for example with the Boeing strike. These these wage increases

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<v Speaker 3>are relatively substantial still. So I actually think that the

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<v Speaker 3>inflationary period is kind of the disinflationary period is kind

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<v Speaker 3>of coming to an end, and I think that you

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<v Speaker 3>can see it in the inflation derivatives market and you

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<v Speaker 3>can see it in the bond market.

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<v Speaker 4>Additionally, regular growth is pretty good.

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<v Speaker 3>We're running about three percent. So for that three percent growth,

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<v Speaker 3>and we've got you know, at least two and a

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<v Speaker 3>half and maybe rising inflation from there, and that's nominal

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<v Speaker 3>GDP of five and a half plus. It's hard to

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<v Speaker 3>see why treasury bonds at you know, four percent are

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit better than that our mispriced or why

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<v Speaker 3>rates should come down from that.

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<v Speaker 1>Another that I know that you have had on David,

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<v Speaker 1>it's fair to call you a gold bug.

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<v Speaker 2>We've seen gold hit record highs this year, and I'm

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<v Speaker 2>wondering how much further you think it'll go and why.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think that I think that gold looked.

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<v Speaker 3>We've been long gold for about, you know, fifteen years,

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<v Speaker 3>so there's nothing new about me saying something interesting about gold.

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<v Speaker 4>But I think just to the point I.

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<v Speaker 3>Was just making right, if we if we have the FED,

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<v Speaker 3>it seems to on trying to reduce interest rates even

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<v Speaker 3>as inflation you know, maybe bottoming and about to re accelerate.

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<v Speaker 3>That should be pretty good for goals, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>you're beginning to see that in the price of bold

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<v Speaker 3>and gold has had a really strong year. It's been

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<v Speaker 3>a big.

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<v Speaker 4>Help to us.

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<v Speaker 1>Last question for you before I let you go.

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<v Speaker 2>There's been a lot of conversation about how you've been

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<v Speaker 2>thinking about value investing, whether the industry has died or not.

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<v Speaker 1>But a lot of.

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<v Speaker 2>People are looking to get back into that value trade,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly that Russell two thousand value trade.

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<v Speaker 1>What advice would you give them?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think with so many professional value investors no

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<v Speaker 3>longer practicing their trade or having assets to manage, there's

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<v Speaker 3>just a lot less competition, and so you can find

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<v Speaker 3>some pretty exciting values in companies that are less talked

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<v Speaker 3>about or less exciting than the ones that everyone wants

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<v Speaker 3>to you know, you know, comment on every day that traded,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, fancy mostly multiples. You have a realfurcated market,

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<v Speaker 3>and we can find companies that are paying large dividends

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<v Speaker 3>and bind.

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<v Speaker 4>Back lots of stock.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to make a good return just from the

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<v Speaker 3>company giving us the money, and we don't really care

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<v Speaker 3>whether what other investors do.

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<v Speaker 1>David, we got to leave it there.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, that is David Einhorn of green Light Capital

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<v Speaker 2>talking about his favorite long pick right now.

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<v Speaker 1>We thank you very much for your time.