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That's 28 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: thirty dollars off your first box and free croissants for 29 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 1: life when you visit wildgrain dot com slash podcast, or 30 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: simply use the promo code podcast at checkout. This is 31 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code well. 32 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: I thought i'd provide a quick addendum, if you will, 33 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: to my first episode of twenty twenty six, the Chuck 34 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: podcast came out. I had Jonathan Martin and we actually 35 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: talked about what could come next and sort of anticipated 36 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:08,239 Speaker 1: that something was going to happen sooner rather than later 37 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,639 Speaker 1: in Venezuela. Well, little did we know when we were 38 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: taping on Friday, January tewod that the sooner was even 39 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: sooner than we thought. So look, I just wanted to 40 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: get a few thoughts. These are the thoughts I would 41 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: have shared had we take the episode sooner. If you 42 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: must know, I am traveling a bit this week. When 43 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: you have kids in college, you have a little extra 44 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: time for vacation and time spent with the family, and 45 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: it's as an empty nester, it's kind of nice to 46 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 1: have my kids are out for an extra a week 47 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: or two than we used to have back in the 48 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: grade school in high school days. But enough about my family, 49 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: and let's stick to what we just saw. Look, I 50 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:59,239 Speaker 1: think this is a I think the way to view 51 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 1: this is is a few ways. One is this is 52 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, with who's always been an ends justifies the 53 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: maids kind of guy. He's never been one that thinks 54 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,679 Speaker 1: that the rules apply to him, whether that's in business, 55 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 1: whether that's in American culture, or whether that's in the 56 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: American presidency. He doesn't want to care about constitutional norms, 57 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 1: separation of powers, advising, you know, getting the advice and 58 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: consent of Congress. He has always viewed that as as 59 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: almost in his way and in some ways just getting Maduro, 60 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: you know, in his there's no doubt in his mind 61 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: he views it just go figure out a way to 62 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: get Maduro and we'll come up with a legal justification 63 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: after the fact. And in some ways that's what this 64 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: feels like, right you saw a Secretary State market Rubio 65 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: out there saying, well, no, no, no, this is not 66 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: a military operation. This was a law enforcement operation, and 67 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: the military was only being used in that. So it's 68 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: that the parallel that Marco Rubio kind of wants to 69 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: draw here is more in line with what is how 70 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: the US military was used to get Manuel Noriega back 71 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty nine, and Panama was essentially extracted from Panama, 72 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 1: brought to the United States to be brought to justice, 73 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: rather than as a rock. But of course I think 74 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: the American political mind immediately a recency bias goes more 75 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 1: to a rock than it goes to Panama. And especially 76 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 1: when the president over the weekend said we're going to 77 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: run Venezuela for the time being, and the fact that 78 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 1: there didn't seem to be a plan in place to 79 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: either recognize the rightful winner of the last presidential election, 80 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: which wasn't Maduro, but the fact that that is not 81 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: the immediate decision that the United States made sort of 82 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 1: raises some questions, what is our plan here? Are we 83 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: going to have is Marco Rubio the new Viceroy of Venezuela, 84 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 1: Will it be somebody else? Is They're going to be 85 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: essentially a the way we ran a rock between the 86 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: fall of Saddam and the holding of the first elections 87 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: before there was a transition there. These are questions that 88 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: haven't really been answered yet and how they're answered. I 89 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: think it's going to have a lot of domestic political 90 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: ramifications here, so and I think that's what you have 91 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: to take this story in a couple of in a 92 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 1: couple of ways. First of all, you know, Trump arranged 93 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 1: in syndrome is a real thing, and it is a 94 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: virus that actually doesn't just infect the left, it infects 95 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: the right. Right. Essentially, you have people that believe anything 96 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: Trump does must be illegal and must be opposed on 97 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: the left, and you have some on the right that 98 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: anything Trump does, if Trump does it, it must be 99 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: legal and it must be supported. Act of the matter is, 100 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: as we all know, the hell of a lot of 101 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 1: nuance in between those two situations. Madurero's a bad guy. 102 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: Maduro is somebody that the Biden administration wanted to figure 103 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 1: out if they could get him arrested in some other way, 104 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,359 Speaker 1: and they It does sound as if we'll probably find 105 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,599 Speaker 1: out that there were at least some plans during the 106 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: Biden era, at least on the table. Maybe Biden decided 107 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 1: not to say yes to them that looked a lot 108 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 1: like this, this military extraction that took place, which was, 109 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: by the way, tactically highly effective and pretty impressive when 110 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: you look at it, because of how few casualties there were, 111 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: how few blood was spilled. I mean, that's not an 112 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: insignificant outcome, and I think the Delta Force ought to 113 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 1: be praised for its ability to do its job. The 114 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 1: question is whether this was done within the legalities of 115 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:04,679 Speaker 1: our constitution and whether, forget that, whether this is going 116 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 1: to enhance America as leader of the free world or 117 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: hurt the ability of America to advocate and spread freedom 118 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: and democracy. I think it's fascinating to see some of 119 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: the Trump administration try to make an America first argument, 120 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 1: essentially for Western Hemisphere imperialism, that, hey, the Western hemisphere. 121 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: You heard Marko Rubia say it, the Western Hemisphere is 122 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: not the Middle East, and he all but seemed to say, 123 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,679 Speaker 1: if you know, we should be he seemed to advocate 124 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: that America should be more involved in the in the 125 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: politics of different countries in the Western hemisphere. And perhaps 126 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: he's right. Look, as somebody grew up in Miami, this 127 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: is this is a front and center topic of conversation. 128 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: This is a front and center issue, which, by the way, 129 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: I think is why perhaps Donald Trump got so sucked 130 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: into the right. Look, you can't ignore the oil part, right, 131 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: if Haiti had oil deposits, would we be more involved 132 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 1: with trying to find stability in Haiti? I think we 133 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: know the answer to that. If there you know, if 134 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: if there was oil off the coast of Cuba that 135 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: was worth trying to drill for, would we have been 136 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: more aggressive with Cuba years ago, decades ago? I think 137 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: that's also possible. So it I don't think that can 138 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: be lost on any of this debate. But it certainly 139 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: seems as if Marco Rubio sees this as as the 140 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:42,199 Speaker 1: beginning of something, not a one off decision. And once 141 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: you get Maduro, he seemed to all but threaten the 142 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 1: leadership of Cuba, saying, you guys are next, even to 143 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 1: a lesser extent you had you've had President Trump indicate 144 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: that the president of Columbia ought to be careful there. 145 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: Now it is worth noting Colombia is actually going to 146 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: be holding its own new presidential election. I'll be electing 147 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: a new president in June of this year, well June 148 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: if there's a runoff, May if there's not, and it's 149 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: probably going to be a close election. I think what's 150 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: going to be interesting is Columbia is going to be 151 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 1: a fascinating bell Weather. I think about American interventionism. Before this, 152 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: I think there was a lot of experts on Columbia's 153 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: politics seem to indicate that the more pro Western, pro 154 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: American side had the upper hand this time at the 155 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: leftists led by the current president. You know, the economy 156 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 1: is not so great. People don't feel a little bit 157 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 1: less secure that they were waning. Now, is there going 158 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: to be a Trump boomerang effect? You know, look at 159 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 1: what happened in Brazil. You know that the current president 160 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 1: la its popularity was waning. Then Trump went after Brazil 161 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 1: over Bolsonaro and their banning of Bolsonaro ever from running 162 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: in the next presidential election, which means Bolsonaro's son will 163 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,439 Speaker 1: be running against Lula in the next presidential election, which also, 164 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: by the way, happens to take a plays in twenty 165 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: twenty six, but Lula's popularity surged when Trump essentially put 166 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:14,239 Speaker 1: these huge tariffs on Brazil in response to the punishment 167 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: of former President Bolsonaro. Do you see a similar effect 168 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: in Colombia or does the strengthened American presence in Venezuela 169 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: strengthen the more pro American side in Colombia. The point 170 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: is is that I think if you're looking for a 171 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: small b democratic bell weather on how American a more 172 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 1: robust American presence in Latin America plays, the Columbia presidential 173 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: election might be a pretty good bell weather to follow 174 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: for what it's worth. In the region, Actually quite a 175 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: few interesting elections in twenty twenty six in Latin America. 176 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: You got Costa Rica in February, and if there's a 177 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: runof it would be in April. You have Peru holds 178 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: its election in April and there needs to be a 179 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,599 Speaker 1: run off at June. By the way, Peru, and you 180 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 1: want to talk about Messi politics, they're going to be 181 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 1: potentially electing their ninth president in ten years. They've had 182 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:12,319 Speaker 1: an impeachment and now stay all sorts of mess. Polarization 183 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: isn't just an American product, either we've exported around the 184 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 1: world or globalization has essentially helped fuel polarization around the 185 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 1: world with a little bit of social media involved. And 186 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: then you have hate is going to potentially try to 187 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 1: hold presidential elections in August, but it's unclear whether there's 188 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: if it's even safe enough to do that, if there's 189 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:38,239 Speaker 1: enough stability, and if any election will even be accepted 190 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: by the gangs, if you will. That run quort of 191 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: prints these days. But I single out Haiti there for 192 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: a second, because it's interesting to see America's interests in 193 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:53,319 Speaker 1: Venezuela and Cuba, but essentially America wanting to let every 194 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: other country worry about Haiti. Right, We've been trying to 195 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 1: bring the Kenyans in to manage Haiti. We kind of 196 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 1: want to wash our hands of it. And again, to 197 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: be a bit starky if they were if there was 198 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: a major oil deposit off the coast of Haiti, would 199 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: we have a different wou the Trump administration have a 200 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: different posture when it comes to Haiti's politics. So look, 201 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 1: I do think that the real political fallout from this, 202 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: this is the twenty twenty six mid terms for Trump, right, 203 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: it's a pretty simple campaign that Democrats can now run, 204 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 1: which is he's off on these adventures overseas imperialism in 205 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: Latin America, worried more about oil companies in Venezuela than 206 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: fighting then fighting for lower electric bills here in the 207 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: United States. He's more worried about renaming the Kennedy Center 208 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 1: after himself rather than in lowering the cost of living. 209 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: He's more worried about enriching his family businesses rather than 210 00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: helping your helping you find cheaper healthcare. So in that sense, 211 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: there's nothing about this that's going to be good politics 212 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: for Donald Trump domestically outside of South Florida. And in fact, 213 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:14,199 Speaker 1: there's a part of me that thinks that that Trump 214 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: has become, you know, because he spends so much time 215 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: at Marta Lago, because Marco Rubio is such an important 216 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: foreign policy advisor to him Secretary of State, national security advisor, 217 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: but really did become his sort of unofficial Latin American 218 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 1: advisor during the first term. Your roub, you know, and 219 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: if you have an agenda to try to overthrow Ma Duro, 220 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 1: to try to overthrow the regiment in Cuba, getting to 221 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: Trump at mar A Lago or getting too Trump at 222 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 1: his golf club in Doral, which is essentially dereal Aezuela. 223 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: Doral is a community is within Miami Dade County, very 224 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: close to the Miami International Airport, and this decision is 225 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: being met with cheers. People are ecstatic. I mean, you 226 00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 1: see the South Florida Democratic politicians are trying very are 227 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: not to be critical other than hey, it would have 228 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: been nice if we're informed, and can you keep us 229 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: more informed? And what's the plan going forward? One thing 230 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: that many a great power in history has learned is 231 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 1: it's easy to topple an adversary. It is harder to 232 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: replace one. It is harder to replace a dictator with 233 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: a democratic elected leader that takes I mean, look at 234 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: Iraq today. It is still not a very stable democracy. 235 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: It hasn't fallen yet. Maybe it won't fall Maybe it'll 236 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: get strengthened because Iran falls and the spring will and 237 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: then we have actual democracy that percolates in Iran, and 238 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: who knows what that has an impact in Iraq. But 239 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 1: the fact is Iraq has been a fledgling democracy now 240 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: for some twenty years. Will it be that long or 241 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 1: more with Venezuela. And if democracy doesn't take right away 242 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: in Venezuela, how long are we going to oversee it? 243 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: I can tell you this, there will not be patients 244 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: in Americans for this. There never is. And so ultimately, 245 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: I think this is a case of we've got short 246 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: termism versus long termism, and it's been the case of 247 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: Latin America forever, which is what feels good in the 248 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: short term usually costs us in the long term. I 249 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: could argue that we have had that we are still 250 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: paying a price for bad interventions in Latin America that 251 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: go back to the nineteen tens twenties, goes back to 252 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 1: the Spanish American War the nineteen fifties. And while perhaps 253 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: our policy towards Latin America may change every four eight years, 254 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: the resentments towards American either neglect or imperialism. It's always 255 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 1: been like one extreme or the other when it comes 256 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: to the United States, those don't go away even when 257 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: we have a new direction or a new president. I 258 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: hope this leads to a better debate about what our 259 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: role should be leading though Western Hemisphere. And I'm not 260 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: sure we can count on a social media algorithm driven 261 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: debate to create the space for that. But we need 262 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: to have this debate, and we need to be better 263 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 1: leaders and better stewards of the Western Hemisphere. A few 264 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 1: other things to think about when it comes to this intervention. 265 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: If we believe the Western hemisphere is our sphere of influence, 266 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: does this mean that Trump is tacitly sort of washing 267 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: his hands of Russia's of Ukraine with Russia? Does it 268 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: mean we are not going to have the backs of 269 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: Taiwan if China decides, hey, it's in our sphere of influence, 270 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: leave us alone. I think those are fair questions to ask. 271 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: It doesn't help our reputation around the world, doesn't help 272 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: with our reputation with our supposed allies, that we aren't 273 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 1: practicing what we're preaching when it comes to the Russians 274 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: and the Chinese. And I think that's that is something 275 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 1: that again a short term victory could end up creating 276 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 1: a long term problem. But one thing is certain, this 277 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 1: is going to be continue to be a very aggressive 278 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 1: Trump presidency. He is somebody that prefers to act, prefers 279 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 1: to duo. You know, he never seems to ask why, 280 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:46,199 Speaker 1: he seems to ask why not? And I'll end with 281 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 1: this thought. The fact that this went so well tactically. 282 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 1: There are quite a few entities within the national security 283 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: community that believe they can take out a leader, that 284 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,159 Speaker 1: believe they have a plan that could sort of maybe 285 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 1: take out the supreme leader of a Rah or take 286 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: out the leadership of Cuba, and they have a military 287 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 1: plan to do it. The fact that this went well, 288 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 1: the fact that Solamani, the assassination a Haim did not 289 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 1: lead to something that many people had feared. The fact 290 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: that American intervention in Iran this year didn't lead two 291 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: bigger problems, is likely to embolden Donald Trump to take 292 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: more risks. And that's something it's you know, it's hard 293 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: to price in at the moment. But if he thinks 294 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 1: this is easy and in his mind, dealing with Irana 295 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 1: Maduro has so far, in his mind, been easier than 296 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: all the armchair generals had said to him, then don't 297 00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: be surprised if we try something even more adventurous. He 298 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 1: gets tod talked into some things that are even more 299 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: risky for the United States in the long term. All right, 300 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 1: So with that, I will have a full schedule of 301 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast coming in the next few days, but I 302 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 1: thought I would offer up this quick addendum since I 303 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:27,360 Speaker 1: happened to miss the taping window when this broke out. 304 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, and until I upload again.