WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 6 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.680 Check it on Man No Down Thursday morning, October one, 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:18.599 The Beating the Book podcast megapod live from the d 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:21.880 It's Skill Alexander, Thanks for listening. Is always the staples 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:25.840 of the show are here. Uh Mikey Palm, the vice 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:29.560 president of operations at Circus Sports. Also Derek Stevens conciliary. 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:33.640 Mikey you good, Yes good. I'm so excited for tonight 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:37.440 because of the baseball. Yes, yes, I can't wait. I 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:41.560 can't wait, dude, I I'm going to be a ball 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:44.320 of nerves during this. Mitch said to me, will the 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:47.040 volume of the Dodger game be on anywhere in your properties? 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:48.960 I said, well, wherever I am. I'm not sure where 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:51.240 I'll be, but it's sure it's gonna be on wherever 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:53.080 I am. You mean Tampa Philly is not going to 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:55.840 be your priority of mind? Cannot be. I might not 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.080 see too many players of that game today. And and 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:00.160 by the way, Mike Palm also the co host of 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:03.360 odds on on Visa and the Sports Betting Network of 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:07.360 course with them all Shaw weekdays eleven am Pacific, two pm, 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:11.160 Easter right in the East. The Life from Circus. After this, 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:15.920 you race over there, run sprint dead stript So you 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:19.280 see Mikey underneath the zip line sprinting, Uh, Todd wishing 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:22.560 him from his mom's cork addic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Star Up, Showtimes, 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:28.040 docuseries Action. How you doing, Toddy? Hey, he's not happy. 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:31.000 He's not happy. Okay, we'll just leave it at that. 0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:33.120 Some people are gonna appreciate that you just went. Hey, 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:35.080 and ladies and gentlemen, this is a This is an 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:37.080 annual treat. We hope to make it an annual treat. 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.039 He was kind enough to come on last year as well. 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:44.040 This megapod Is is the mountain that it is because 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:47.039 it was built on this man's shoulders. We know him 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:50.560 as Ace, We know his him as as Jannie or 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:54.000 Johnny pardon me, however he's pronouncing it these days. Uh, 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:56.440 And of course we know him as vr Vegas runner. Ace. 0:01:56.480 --> 0:02:00.320 How you doing? Man? Never better? All are the ball? 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:04.280 All proper pronouns. I'm good with either or so we're good. 0:02:04.400 --> 0:02:07.360 Just help yourself there. We're good to go, and thank 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:09.919 you for having me again. This is that one show, 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:13.520 the NFL show, honestly, even not on it, that I 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:17.920 listened to every week like consistently, not not stroking you 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:21.480 because I'm on here, but the information you share it 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:24.120 just keeps you up to date and it's current. And 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:26.840 because I'm in the sports betting industry, you have to 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:30.639 be current. And again we take it for granted being 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:34.800 in Vegas Point spreads all that, like other cities just 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:37.880 don't like that. So to have something like this to 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:41.120 depend on weekly where I know that's what you guys do. 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:44.520 You're in the grind all day, every day, not just 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:48.200 doing this once a week or for certain season. Again, man, 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:50.400 I'm just happy to be a part of it and 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:53.600 humbled and privileged to be here. Brother. Hopefully I got 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:56.600 some winners for the for the listeners and viewers, hopefully 0:02:56.639 --> 0:02:59.119 got some winners. There's also there's also VR bingo, where 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:04.280 people are like never better, blah blah blah, Sprinkle, what 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.520 a country, what a country? God less Samerica? All your 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:10.400 old things people, those things live on. Man. I still 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:12.960 get tweets from people who, again when they heard that 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:14.560 you were on today, already got a couple of tweets 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:17.560 about it. But but but Sprinkle, people still remember that you 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:20.560 were the guy that, uh that made these things famous 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:24.480 and we uh we Appreciate podcast. We originated sprinkling sorry 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.480 for a decade ago, Gil, Well, over a decade ago. 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.760 Now it's in the sports betting Lexica. Everybody uses it. 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:34.720 It's awesome, it's it's a beautiful thing, a beautiful thing. Yeah. 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:36.840 We used to throw that E forty music behind it too, 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:40.160 was awesome. Um, great to have you, man. Let's do 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:42.800 it so so we always start with an update from 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:47.640 Mike on the Circum Millions contest and the reds. Okay, 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.400 we'll do the records first. Pardon me, what are what 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:53.520 were the records last week? We always do the records first, Gilly, 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:57.000 That's what we always Sorry, I'm sorry, okay, uh, and 0:03:57.080 --> 0:03:59.000 I have a maye of culpa. I have a may 0:03:59.120 --> 0:04:03.600 culpa it Uh. Mikey pulls in the first place with 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:07.720 uh his eight six and one. He was one one 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:10.520 in one last week because I went oh and three. 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.520 He goes ahead of me. I'm seven and eight now 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:16.719 he's eight six and one, and you, Gilly, are pulling 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.480 up the rear at five and ten. What did I do? 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:24.599 One and two? Yeah, one and two on the teaser side, 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:27.360 I'm still in the lead at five and oh, Gilly, 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:29.560 you're four oh and one because you pushed one of 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:35.240 your legs last week and the Patriots. I think, oh, 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.919 that's true. I did push him. Yeah, okayo, and Mike 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:41.280 is three and two on teasers, so really, I mean 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:43.640 the only important thing is how you're doing on teasers, 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:45.880 because no one would bet these games pre game anyways, 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:50.159 So it's teasers, is what's important. I would like to 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:51.760 go and I'll ask Gill as well. I'd like to 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.480 go last on teasers. I have two games behind you, 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.080 and I can't catch up when you keep copying mine. 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.920 So I'd like to go after you. And that's funny 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:02.360 because if I keep topping you, how my five and 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:08.880 and oh and three and that you were four and 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:10.599 oh I was to to I gave a teaser you 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:13.800 copyy that I can never catch you. Try again? Come on, 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:15.600 you could do better than that. Should I just call 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:21.200 you email? I'll just call you okay? Um anyways, No, 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:25.520 I'm sorry that that was too low. I retracted. Um 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:28.719 My mayor is I thought the Raiders would not be 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:32.359 affected by the first email and would play National Football 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:36.000 League football and I took them in my Survivor And 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:39.640 this will go into our next discussion that you're gonna 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:42.520 bring up a survivor and I paid for it, especially 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:45.560 when that kid dropped the sixty five yard bomb wide 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:48.240 open and it was just not the raider's day. So 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.040 I am out of Survivor, and I guess I will 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:54.880 learn to not take a team that has email problems 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.280 prior to the game. I still contend that Urban Meyer 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:01.240 and his team, you know, it's not affected by his 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:03.960 lap dances. But anyways, go ahead, Well, survivors a whole 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:05.960 another discussion. But let me just say this that the 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:10.480 fact that Minnesota, New England, and Baltimore all survived miraculously 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:14.160 last week is such a testament to how difficult this 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:16.960 stuff is to be. That's just to pick one team 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:20.120 to win regardless of spread. That's what you're tasked with 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:24.080 every weekend Survivor. That's difficult enough to pick. Let's say 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:26.120 in circle millions five against the spread every week and 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:30.159 somebody's twenty two and three three. God, you know, the 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.160 records were going to be better by the sheer number 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:37.840 of entrants, right that had m But this is five 0:06:37.880 --> 0:06:40.480 guys eighteen and two, two and three. I don't know 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:42.280 how long it can keep up. I mean you and 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:43.920 I are looking at the board trying to find three 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:46.960 games not right, E slops the board. We struggled a 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:53.760 couple So how many people didn't submit in millions? I 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:58.360 don't know about me. It's it's getting better, getting better. 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.520 And really the Raiders were the only blow the fifty four. 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:04.200 Like Todd that chose the Raiders six Panthers, one Bagels, 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:08.240 one Jets. We still have sixty eight. But if you 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.720 brought this point up, this is this is incredible. If 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:14.880 Minnesota doesn't kick the last second field goal, if New 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:18.400 England doesn't rally from down sixteen, if Baltimore doesn't rally 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:22.960 from down nineteen, we'd have to twenty nine left, one left. 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:24.880 And you know, I thought I was such a genius 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:27.360 for avoiding Kirk Cousins because I can't stand betting on 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:29.400 Kirk Cousins. I thought, oh my god, I'm gonna be 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:31.840 a genius here, and somehow Kirk Cousins gonna blow it, 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:34.440 and then it doesn't happen. I kept texting the whole 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:36.800 time with Minnesota, I'm like, this is gonna end badly, 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:38.640 even though when they were up seven or ten, it 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:41.400 was just never felt right. I wish Todd that I had, 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:44.040 you know, a mall on Thursday after we did this, 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:46.960 said to me, I think Pittsburgh is really the only 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:49.160 survivor played this weekend. I thought he was being funny 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:51.640 and like miss guiding because he's in it. He actually 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:54.200 used it. No, he said, Pittsburgh is not losing this 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:56.680 week to Denver at home. And he said, I don't 0:07:56.680 --> 0:07:58.640 want Kirk cousins. I don't want you know all this, 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:00.000 and he may. And I wish I could have told 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:02.520 Todd because maybe he had taken Pittsburg instead of the Raiders. 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:06.840 I would I wouldn't have taken he was all right, 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:10.440 So against Fields, I was betting against Fields. That's it. 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:12.360 I just thought Fields is not going and you know what, 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.360 Field wasn't good't do anything. Yeah, it's just that the 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.600 Bears ran the ball and the Raiders didn't do anything 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:20.600 on offense, So you know what, what are you gonna do? 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:22.640 All right? Before we get to our best bets? Three? 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:25.120 Can I talk some more surviving please? I'd like to 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:27.200 actually you can talk survivor, And I'd like to ask 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:30.600 you this question because you talked about miss Name Miss 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:34.240 Named contest. You've also talked about you don't really try 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:36.200 to survive until you get five or six weeks in 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:38.600 and then you start only try to I mean you don't, yeah, Corect, 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:41.240 I'm sorry mistaking. Then you get into it. Is this 0:08:41.320 --> 0:08:43.520 the point now where you try to use the winner 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.080 strategy instead of the survivor because the last three weeks 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:50.440 you've been surviving with a consensus pick. Yeah, but I 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:53.440 also think that the there's been a little bit of 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:56.640 a mix of both because I have taken so the 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:59.520 first two weeks I took good teams. Yeah, but you 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:02.960 took some chances early well, I had multiple entries. On 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:05.200 the multiple entries, I took the chances, which again is 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:07.120 my theory that the multiple entries don't matter, it's just 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:08.600 the one that you would play openly. So the one 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:10.439 that I was left with was the one that I 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:12.960 played Tampa Bay the first week. I lost all my 0:09:13.000 --> 0:09:16.120 other entries with the more random picks. I've only played 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.959 Tampa Bay and Green Bay good like really solid teams, 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:21.440 top ten power ranked teams in that entry. The rest 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:27.120 of it so far is Carolina, Cincinnati, UH, Minnesota. And 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:28.840 I think I'm playing with that theme. I'm gonna think 0:09:28.840 --> 0:09:32.120 I'm gonna go Indianapolis again this week, and that way 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:34.200 if I get through, and that's a big if with Indianapoles, 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:36.959 even though they're a big favorite, I really do think 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:41.040 that that entry becomes pretty solid because I've I've used 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:44.440 at least four kind of random teams and I still 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:46.679 have a bunch of top tenors left. So I think 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:49.320 I'm going to Indianapolis just to call my shot now. Um, 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:51.439 I think that's how I'm going because I've already used 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:53.520 Tampa Bay and I can use the Rams later, and 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:55.720 I think this is the time to use the Colts 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:57.439 because I'm in the end. I'm playing. That was my 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:01.160 second that was my second mayicle. But um, Carson Wentz, 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.560 Frank Greig. I always like Frank Greig, but I thought 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:07.480 even Frank Gregg can't rehabilitate this idiot Wentz. But he 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:09.720 actually looked good on Monday nights, so I have to say, 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:13.559 you know, I mean, he looked good once. So let 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:15.120 you don't don't you don't need to get to the 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:17.320 may but just yet, all right, before we get our 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:20.800 best bets Ace, any thoughts on tonight's game? Are you 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:25.199 betting the Tampa Bay Philly game? Anyway? I've been to 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:28.240 over fifty two and I leave Philadelphia, I haven't gotten 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:30.280 to the window yet. I'm hoping he gets the seven 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:32.640 and a half. That's why I haven't. And I'm even 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.520 considering sprinkling a little bit on the money line. And 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:38.600 here's why we have a winless home team in Philadelphia 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:41.559 there oh and two. And I've gone back and Philadelpia 0:10:41.559 --> 0:10:43.719 has had a pretty good home field advantage. I mean 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:46.160 even going back when they finished in last place and 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:50.000 they were a six and two team at home. So 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:52.600 the winless so far, I think that gives you a 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:55.160 little bit of incentive. You don't want to keep losing 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:58.840 there obviously, uh, coupled with Tampa Bay a little bit 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:02.280 of over value I think coming into this one, the 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:06.400 over seems so square obviously, um, but just all the 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.240 metrics point to that. Signed you have two offenses that 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:13.040 are top ten in yards per play and two defenses 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.680 that are in the bottom ten and points allowed, that's 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:19.000 like the perfect storm to see over fifty two and 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:22.720 again sounds square as anything. Um But if I've learned 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:24.800 one thing being here as long as I have in 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:27.679 the NFL, you can't just play contrary and the goals 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:30.240 try to get ahead of the market and hopefully have 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:32.800 some good luck as well. And I think the Eagles 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.680 tonight may have that. If Jail and Hurt gets it 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:38.280 going and could distribute the ball and not try to 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.200 you know, be not leading the team in rushing yards 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:44.960 and in everything and gets the rest of uh, I 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:47.320 think they could create some problems for Tampa Bay. So 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.360 for me, I like the over, and I'm trying to 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:53.000 get their window on the Birds too, and maybe a 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:55.599 sprinkle on the money line the sprint calls defend it 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.560 if I take the seven. The sprinkles for sure? Is 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:02.040 that is that one of your three? No? No, I 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:04.200 I wouldn't use it as a as a like a 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:07.040 best bet. I did back it with my that's an opinion. 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:10.000 I backed with my money. I will say that, um, 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:11.880 but I wouldn't call it the best bet. And I 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:14.080 want to try to do that for the show because 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:16.560 I fired. I said, I like this week, win or lose. 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:19.360 I keep it real. I'm down this year going into 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:21.920 this week. I'm down in college football. I'm down in 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:25.600 NFL for a year to date one, um, but you know, 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:29.319 long term, over the last four NFL bets, I've gotten lucky. 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:33.280 I guess I'm profitable, so I'm hoping that it continues 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:37.160 going forward. But again, I haven't been winning this season, 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.040 but I feel confident in this week. Take it how 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:43.360 you will, You'll get those better beds. No, no shame 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:45.800 and no shame in being down this thus far through 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.440 the season. Todd or mikey any uh any thoughts on 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:53.800 tonight at all? Uh? I lean over just because I 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:56.240 think this. You know, the secondary is so bad at 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.880 Tampa Um even though Hurts isn't the most accurate passer. 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:04.079 I think Philadelphia will score tonight, and I'm gonna tease them. 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:06.839 Uh tease Tampa Bay in this spot here, because I 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:08.680 don't think they're losing. Let me ask you this, Ace. 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.559 You went back to two thousand, fifteen or sixteen with 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.240 the Eagles in their home record in general in the NFL? 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.840 Has it home field advantage dissipated between that time and 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:22.880 now one I used to think standard was three points, 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:25.760 and now I'm hard pressed to give two points. I 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:30.560 agree one one percent, and I'm not sure if the 0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:34.080 markets caught up with that. I don't. I don't think so. 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:37.520 So I think you're right there. There is that loss 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:41.640 of value from that perspective as far as home field 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.320 advantage goes, But I kind of weigh it with that 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:46.920 they haven't won there yet, and I know the deuce 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:51.160 it the dude doesn't work in sports betting. Um. But again, 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:55.000 you're even bad teams managed to win a home game, 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.800 like you should be able to the red should like 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:00.360 you should have even some good luck, like even bad 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:03.760 cole should go your way. So again, you don't want 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:06.160 to depend on not to cash a ticket. Um. But 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.280 it's just hard for me to see a Philadelphia team 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:11.680 that's close to five hundred on the season and just 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.560 winless at home for that trend to continue. I don't know, 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.319 it's it's difficult to continue seeing that happen. By the way, 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:20.120 last week, Tom Brady against Miami thirty of forty one 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:22.720 for four eleven, five touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.560 two times. It's his eighth career game with five touchdowns 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:28.000 and no picks, the most ever in the NFL. His 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:30.240 first career game at the age of forty four with 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.400 four hundred plus yards and five touchdowns. They outscored Miami 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:36.200 twenty one and nothing in the fourth quarter tonight, sore 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:39.320 thumb but he says he's a go. Tom Brady says, 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:41.560 no big deal, he's gonna play. But they don't have 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:43.880 Rob Gronkowski, they don't have ants on winfield. There's some 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.480 others they're missing. Tampa Bay is not at full strength tonight. 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.760 Anything from Utah on that, I'm probably going to use 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.880 the bucks in my teaser. I'm surprised that A said 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.600 that the Eagles were top ten in yards per play. 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.840 If that is true, they are the most pagazy to 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.960 up ten I've ever seen in my entire life. Um, 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:09.680 they played Atlantas exactly tenants offensively, and that's fine. All 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:12.440 I'm gonna say is I think it's phaghazy because they 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:15.120 played at Atlanta and they moved the ball. Very nice. 0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:17.760 Tip your hat. Everyone moves the ball in Atlanta. Thank you. 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.360 San Francisco. They played at home, didn't do Jack squad 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:24.920 on offense. At Dallas. They got a lot of garbage yards. 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.960 That's going into that garbage number. You know, they got 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:29.680 a ton of garbage yards. At the end of the game. 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:33.120 They were completely blown out. In Kansas City. Everybody moves 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:34.960 the ball in Kansas City. Me, Gil and Mike and 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:38.120 you playing white out to move the ball in Kansas City, 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:40.600 so that throw that out. And then last week at 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:43.760 Carolina they didn't do anything. They blocked upon at the 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:45.760 end of the game and got lucky. So to me, 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:48.920 the Eagles. No. By the way, that being said, I 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:50.800 I don't disagree with you that the Eagles could win 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:52.800 the game and the game could go over. Obviously, all 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:54.920 I'm saying is I think that to think that that 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:58.040 the Eagles are the top ten offensive team in football 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:01.040 is just not fair because as you can see, a 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:04.080 lot of this is phaghazy. But with that said, I'll 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:07.800 take the bucks as part of my um my teaser later. 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:11.640 But anyways, Neat, you'll never catch him. You'll never catch 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:13.240 him in teasers. As soon as I said it, he 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.320 wants I have full disclosure. Here's the new thing. You 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:18.600 see where we're going to, the new narrative, Gilly. You 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.160 see the new narrative, the Mikey Palm. He starts playing 0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:24.680 laying the Seeds, Mr No hyper Bowl, the Steeler of 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:31.200 the Grievances, Gentile Grievancesances, Grievances. The I have the Tampa 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:35.640 Bay Buccaneers tied into Last Monday Night's Baltimore Ravens teaser 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.360 leg which was never in doubt got completely lucky with it. 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:41.720 But that's what I have as a Tampa Bay teaser like. 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:43.600 I'm not sure if I'm going to use it moving forward. 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:45.960 We'll see where we get to. That best bets are 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.280 top three. Let's start with our first ace. What is 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:56.600 your number one spread or totals bets sir that I'm 0:16:56.600 --> 0:17:00.360 going to have to go split the Monday night, abolutely 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:04.280 loved the Buffalo Bills. I jumped on them immediately and 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:08.200 laid the five. And this has come from experience, meaning 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:11.080 back in the day, I would have never bet a 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:15.000 team like Buffalo in this spot. They've scored thirty plus 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:19.000 points three straight weeks. They've outperformed the betting market by 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:24.439 double digits four straight weeks. That tells me from everything 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.359 I know that you're gonna be overvalued, that the betting 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:29.600 market is going to add a premium, that if I 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:33.000 bade you, I am certain I'm getting more points than 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:35.800 I should. And long term, that's the best you could 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:38.359 ever hope for as a sports Better doesn't guarantee you're 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:41.760 cashing a ticket that night, but guarantees you're gonna be profitable. 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:45.160 Long term if you manage risk correctly. Um, With all 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:49.280 of that said, I have seen certain outliers. I bet 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.760 long enough that's have seen certain outliers. And there are 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:56.240 some teams in the regular season that when they get going, 0:17:56.440 --> 0:18:00.400 they're gonna just continue to steam roll opponents. I saw 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:04.000 Kansas City do it, I've seen Seattle do it, and 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:07.080 now we're seeing Buffalo do it. And back in the day, 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:09.800 I got in front of those trains and all I 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.040 did was lose money, thinking I was getting the best 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:15.960 of it. When I found out looking back, I was 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:19.240 taking the worst of it because they were outperforming the 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:22.879 betting market continued to do so, so they proved the 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:26.920 betting market wrong. Yes, it's efficient, it's as efficient as 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:31.120 it gets, but it's still we know, historically ten points 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:34.280 off the closing line when it's all said and done. 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.760 And I think this is one of those teams that 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.480 we're they're gonna get sharp money fading them. So that's 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.280 gonna eliminate some of the risk for the books. But 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:46.440 the public is gonna roll on this team and gonna 0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:49.280 keep cashing tickets, and I'm not gonna stand in front 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:52.840 of it. I'm gonna roll on top of them. That's 0:18:52.880 --> 0:18:55.280 what I've learned betting. As long as I have that, 0:18:55.480 --> 0:18:59.719 sometimes you gotta put those old school, you know, rules 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:04.399 of the side and realize things change and you gotta, 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.400 you know, be able to adapt. So for me, I 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:10.280 saw that immediately, and I'm like, that's a game where 0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:12.920 I would have been all over Tennessee. I would have 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.320 been certain I got the best of it. So that's 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:17.760 why I'm not even going into metrics or any of 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:21.760 that on this game. It's simply reasoning, and for me, 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:25.359 like it doesn't make it any more simpler than that. Yes, 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:28.800 this team is probably gonna be favored more than we 0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:31.400 think they should, and they're still gonna go out there 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:34.360 and cover even though Sharks think fading them has given 0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:37.080 them the best of it. Because I've seen, like I said, 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:39.840 I've seen New England do it. I've seen Kansas City 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:43.080 do it. I've seen Seattle do it during the regular season, 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.040 and I'm watching Buffalo do it in real time and 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:48.560 I'm not going to fade that. And you learn from 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:52.240 history or you fail, you know you're doomed to repeat it. 0:19:52.520 --> 0:19:54.960 And I paid a lot for my education. I've got 0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:59.000 a Harvard education, an Ivy League education, the amount of 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:02.000 money I've lost to learn how to win, and I'm 0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.840 not losing any more fading teams like Buffalo. It's it's 0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:07.520 an interesting thing that the game has so evolved since 0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:09.440 you and I used to do this megapod back in 0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:11.480 the day. It is such a and from a betting perspective, 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:13.440 for sure, the most interesting Buffalo stad. I don't know 0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:14.960 if it's the most interesting, but it is an interesting 0:20:14.960 --> 0:20:16.639 one to me. And they sort of flashed this up 0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:18.680 quickly the other night when they were crushing Kansas City 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:23.800 during the lightning delay. Buffalo has led it halftime in 0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:27.760 fourteen straight regular season games. Now, when you hear that, 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:30.440 you're like, that's interesting. That's an NFL record that's never 0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:34.040 happened before. Fourteen to thirty minutes of football. It's one 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.040 thing to be tied, right, but to lead by the 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:40.760 half in fourteen consecutive games is also perhaps another way 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:43.360 to bet the Buffalo Bills. If if that you're such 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:45.720 a big favorite though, to win the game, if you 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:48.080