Speaker 1: Check it on Man No Down Thursday morning, October one,
Speaker 1: The Beating the Book podcast megapod live from the d
Speaker 1: It's Skill Alexander, Thanks for listening. Is always the staples
Speaker 1: of the show are here. Uh Mikey Palm, the vice
Speaker 1: president of operations at Circus Sports. Also Derek Stevens conciliary.
Speaker 1: Mikey you good, Yes good. I'm so excited for tonight
Speaker 1: because of the baseball. Yes, yes, I can't wait. I
Speaker 1: can't wait, dude, I I'm going to be a ball
Speaker 1: of nerves during this. Mitch said to me, will the
Speaker 1: volume of the Dodger game be on anywhere in your properties?
Speaker 1: I said, well, wherever I am. I'm not sure where
Speaker 1: I'll be, but it's sure it's gonna be on wherever
Speaker 1: I am. You mean Tampa Philly is not going to
Speaker 1: be your priority of mind? Cannot be. I might not
Speaker 1: see too many players of that game today. And and
Speaker 1: by the way, Mike Palm also the co host of
Speaker 1: odds on on Visa and the Sports Betting Network of
Speaker 1: course with them all Shaw weekdays eleven am Pacific, two pm,
Speaker 1: Easter right in the East. The Life from Circus. After this,
Speaker 1: you race over there, run sprint dead stript So you
Speaker 1: see Mikey underneath the zip line sprinting, Uh, Todd wishing
Speaker 1: him from his mom's cork addic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Star Up, Showtimes,
Speaker 1: docuseries Action. How you doing, Toddy? Hey, he's not happy.
Speaker 1: He's not happy. Okay, we'll just leave it at that.
Speaker 1: Some people are gonna appreciate that you just went. Hey,
Speaker 1: and ladies and gentlemen, this is a This is an
Speaker 1: annual treat. We hope to make it an annual treat.
Speaker 1: He was kind enough to come on last year as well.
Speaker 1: This megapod Is is the mountain that it is because
Speaker 1: it was built on this man's shoulders. We know him
Speaker 1: as Ace, We know his him as as Jannie or
Speaker 1: Johnny pardon me, however he's pronouncing it these days. Uh,
Speaker 1: And of course we know him as vr Vegas runner. Ace.
Speaker 1: How you doing? Man? Never better? All are the ball?
Speaker 1: All proper pronouns. I'm good with either or so we're good.
Speaker 1: Just help yourself there. We're good to go, and thank
Speaker 1: you for having me again. This is that one show,
Speaker 1: the NFL show, honestly, even not on it, that I
Speaker 1: listened to every week like consistently, not not stroking you
Speaker 1: because I'm on here, but the information you share it
Speaker 1: just keeps you up to date and it's current. And
Speaker 1: because I'm in the sports betting industry, you have to
Speaker 1: be current. And again we take it for granted being
Speaker 1: in Vegas Point spreads all that, like other cities just
Speaker 1: don't like that. So to have something like this to
Speaker 1: depend on weekly where I know that's what you guys do.
Speaker 1: You're in the grind all day, every day, not just
Speaker 1: doing this once a week or for certain season. Again, man,
Speaker 1: I'm just happy to be a part of it and
Speaker 1: humbled and privileged to be here. Brother. Hopefully I got
Speaker 1: some winners for the for the listeners and viewers, hopefully
Speaker 1: got some winners. There's also there's also VR bingo, where
Speaker 1: people are like never better, blah blah blah, Sprinkle, what
Speaker 1: a country, what a country? God less Samerica? All your
Speaker 1: old things people, those things live on. Man. I still
Speaker 1: get tweets from people who, again when they heard that
Speaker 1: you were on today, already got a couple of tweets
Speaker 1: about it. But but but Sprinkle, people still remember that you
Speaker 1: were the guy that, uh that made these things famous
Speaker 1: and we uh we Appreciate podcast. We originated sprinkling sorry
Speaker 1: for a decade ago, Gil, Well, over a decade ago.
Speaker 1: Now it's in the sports betting Lexica. Everybody uses it.
Speaker 1: It's awesome, it's it's a beautiful thing, a beautiful thing. Yeah.
Speaker 1: We used to throw that E forty music behind it too,
Speaker 1: was awesome. Um, great to have you, man. Let's do
Speaker 1: it so so we always start with an update from
Speaker 1: Mike on the Circum Millions contest and the reds. Okay,
Speaker 1: we'll do the records first. Pardon me, what are what
Speaker 1: were the records last week? We always do the records first, Gilly,
Speaker 1: That's what we always Sorry, I'm sorry, okay, uh, and
Speaker 1: I have a maye of culpa. I have a may
Speaker 1: culpa it Uh. Mikey pulls in the first place with
Speaker 1: uh his eight six and one. He was one one
Speaker 1: in one last week because I went oh and three.
Speaker 1: He goes ahead of me. I'm seven and eight now
Speaker 1: he's eight six and one, and you, Gilly, are pulling
Speaker 1: up the rear at five and ten. What did I do?
Speaker 1: One and two? Yeah, one and two on the teaser side,
Speaker 1: I'm still in the lead at five and oh, Gilly,
Speaker 1: you're four oh and one because you pushed one of
Speaker 1: your legs last week and the Patriots. I think, oh,
Speaker 1: that's true. I did push him. Yeah, okayo, and Mike
Speaker 1: is three and two on teasers, so really, I mean
Speaker 1: the only important thing is how you're doing on teasers,
Speaker 1: because no one would bet these games pre game anyways,
Speaker 1: So it's teasers, is what's important. I would like to
Speaker 1: go and I'll ask Gill as well. I'd like to
Speaker 1: go last on teasers. I have two games behind you,
Speaker 1: and I can't catch up when you keep copying mine.
Speaker 1: So I'd like to go after you. And that's funny
Speaker 1: because if I keep topping you, how my five and
Speaker 1: and oh and three and that you were four and
Speaker 1: oh I was to to I gave a teaser you
Speaker 1: copyy that I can never catch you. Try again? Come on,
Speaker 1: you could do better than that. Should I just call
Speaker 1: you email? I'll just call you okay? Um anyways, No,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry that that was too low. I retracted. Um
Speaker 1: My mayor is I thought the Raiders would not be
Speaker 1: affected by the first email and would play National Football
Speaker 1: League football and I took them in my Survivor And
Speaker 1: this will go into our next discussion that you're gonna
Speaker 1: bring up a survivor and I paid for it, especially
Speaker 1: when that kid dropped the sixty five yard bomb wide
Speaker 1: open and it was just not the raider's day. So
Speaker 1: I am out of Survivor, and I guess I will
Speaker 1: learn to not take a team that has email problems
Speaker 1: prior to the game. I still contend that Urban Meyer
Speaker 1: and his team, you know, it's not affected by his
Speaker 1: lap dances. But anyways, go ahead, Well, survivors a whole
Speaker 1: another discussion. But let me just say this that the
Speaker 1: fact that Minnesota, New England, and Baltimore all survived miraculously
Speaker 1: last week is such a testament to how difficult this
Speaker 1: stuff is to be. That's just to pick one team
Speaker 1: to win regardless of spread. That's what you're tasked with
Speaker 1: every weekend Survivor. That's difficult enough to pick. Let's say
Speaker 1: in circle millions five against the spread every week and
Speaker 1: somebody's twenty two and three three. God, you know, the
Speaker 1: records were going to be better by the sheer number
Speaker 1: of entrants, right that had m But this is five
Speaker 1: guys eighteen and two, two and three. I don't know
Speaker 1: how long it can keep up. I mean you and
Speaker 1: I are looking at the board trying to find three
Speaker 1: games not right, E slops the board. We struggled a
Speaker 1: couple So how many people didn't submit in millions? I
Speaker 1: don't know about me. It's it's getting better, getting better.
Speaker 1: And really the Raiders were the only blow the fifty four.
Speaker 1: Like Todd that chose the Raiders six Panthers, one Bagels,
Speaker 1: one Jets. We still have sixty eight. But if you
Speaker 1: brought this point up, this is this is incredible. If
Speaker 1: Minnesota doesn't kick the last second field goal, if New
Speaker 1: England doesn't rally from down sixteen, if Baltimore doesn't rally
Speaker 1: from down nineteen, we'd have to twenty nine left, one left.
Speaker 1: And you know, I thought I was such a genius
Speaker 1: for avoiding Kirk Cousins because I can't stand betting on
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. I thought, oh my god, I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: a genius here, and somehow Kirk Cousins gonna blow it,
Speaker 1: and then it doesn't happen. I kept texting the whole
Speaker 1: time with Minnesota, I'm like, this is gonna end badly,
Speaker 1: even though when they were up seven or ten, it
Speaker 1: was just never felt right. I wish Todd that I had,
Speaker 1: you know, a mall on Thursday after we did this,
Speaker 1: said to me, I think Pittsburgh is really the only
Speaker 1: survivor played this weekend. I thought he was being funny
Speaker 1: and like miss guiding because he's in it. He actually
Speaker 1: used it. No, he said, Pittsburgh is not losing this
Speaker 1: week to Denver at home. And he said, I don't
Speaker 1: want Kirk cousins. I don't want you know all this,
Speaker 1: and he may. And I wish I could have told
Speaker 1: Todd because maybe he had taken Pittsburg instead of the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I would I wouldn't have taken he was all right,
Speaker 1: So against Fields, I was betting against Fields. That's it.
Speaker 1: I just thought Fields is not going and you know what,
Speaker 1: Field wasn't good't do anything. Yeah, it's just that the
Speaker 1: Bears ran the ball and the Raiders didn't do anything
Speaker 1: on offense, So you know what, what are you gonna do?
Speaker 1: All right? Before we get to our best bets? Three?
Speaker 1: Can I talk some more surviving please? I'd like to
Speaker 1: actually you can talk survivor, And I'd like to ask
Speaker 1: you this question because you talked about miss Name Miss
Speaker 1: Named contest. You've also talked about you don't really try
Speaker 1: to survive until you get five or six weeks in
Speaker 1: and then you start only try to I mean you don't, yeah, Corect,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry mistaking. Then you get into it. Is this
Speaker 1: the point now where you try to use the winner
Speaker 1: strategy instead of the survivor because the last three weeks
Speaker 1: you've been surviving with a consensus pick. Yeah, but I
Speaker 1: also think that the there's been a little bit of
Speaker 1: a mix of both because I have taken so the
Speaker 1: first two weeks I took good teams. Yeah, but you
Speaker 1: took some chances early well, I had multiple entries. On
Speaker 1: the multiple entries, I took the chances, which again is
Speaker 1: my theory that the multiple entries don't matter, it's just
Speaker 1: the one that you would play openly. So the one
Speaker 1: that I was left with was the one that I
Speaker 1: played Tampa Bay the first week. I lost all my
Speaker 1: other entries with the more random picks. I've only played
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay and Green Bay good like really solid teams,
Speaker 1: top ten power ranked teams in that entry. The rest
Speaker 1: of it so far is Carolina, Cincinnati, UH, Minnesota. And
Speaker 1: I think I'm playing with that theme. I'm gonna think
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Indianapolis again this week, and that way
Speaker 1: if I get through, and that's a big if with Indianapoles,
Speaker 1: even though they're a big favorite, I really do think
Speaker 1: that that entry becomes pretty solid because I've I've used
Speaker 1: at least four kind of random teams and I still
Speaker 1: have a bunch of top tenors left. So I think
Speaker 1: I'm going to Indianapolis just to call my shot now. Um,
Speaker 1: I think that's how I'm going because I've already used
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay and I can use the Rams later, and
Speaker 1: I think this is the time to use the Colts
Speaker 1: because I'm in the end. I'm playing. That was my
Speaker 1: second that was my second mayicle. But um, Carson Wentz,
Speaker 1: Frank Greig. I always like Frank Greig, but I thought
Speaker 1: even Frank Gregg can't rehabilitate this idiot Wentz. But he
Speaker 1: actually looked good on Monday nights, so I have to say,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, he looked good once. So let
Speaker 1: you don't don't you don't need to get to the
Speaker 1: may but just yet, all right, before we get our
Speaker 1: best bets Ace, any thoughts on tonight's game? Are you
Speaker 1: betting the Tampa Bay Philly game? Anyway? I've been to
Speaker 1: over fifty two and I leave Philadelphia, I haven't gotten
Speaker 1: to the window yet. I'm hoping he gets the seven
Speaker 1: and a half. That's why I haven't. And I'm even
Speaker 1: considering sprinkling a little bit on the money line. And
Speaker 1: here's why we have a winless home team in Philadelphia
Speaker 1: there oh and two. And I've gone back and Philadelpia
Speaker 1: has had a pretty good home field advantage. I mean
Speaker 1: even going back when they finished in last place and
Speaker 1: they were a six and two team at home. So
Speaker 1: the winless so far, I think that gives you a
Speaker 1: little bit of incentive. You don't want to keep losing
Speaker 1: there obviously, uh, coupled with Tampa Bay a little bit
Speaker 1: of over value I think coming into this one, the
Speaker 1: over seems so square obviously, um, but just all the
Speaker 1: metrics point to that. Signed you have two offenses that
Speaker 1: are top ten in yards per play and two defenses
Speaker 1: that are in the bottom ten and points allowed, that's
Speaker 1: like the perfect storm to see over fifty two and
Speaker 1: again sounds square as anything. Um But if I've learned
Speaker 1: one thing being here as long as I have in
Speaker 1: the NFL, you can't just play contrary and the goals
Speaker 1: try to get ahead of the market and hopefully have
Speaker 1: some good luck as well. And I think the Eagles
Speaker 1: tonight may have that. If Jail and Hurt gets it
Speaker 1: going and could distribute the ball and not try to
Speaker 1: you know, be not leading the team in rushing yards
Speaker 1: and in everything and gets the rest of uh, I
Speaker 1: think they could create some problems for Tampa Bay. So
Speaker 1: for me, I like the over, and I'm trying to
Speaker 1: get their window on the Birds too, and maybe a
Speaker 1: sprinkle on the money line the sprint calls defend it
Speaker 1: if I take the seven. The sprinkles for sure? Is
Speaker 1: that is that one of your three? No? No, I
Speaker 1: I wouldn't use it as a as a like a
Speaker 1: best bet. I did back it with my that's an opinion.
Speaker 1: I backed with my money. I will say that, um,
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't call it the best bet. And I
Speaker 1: want to try to do that for the show because
Speaker 1: I fired. I said, I like this week, win or lose.
Speaker 1: I keep it real. I'm down this year going into
Speaker 1: this week. I'm down in college football. I'm down in
Speaker 1: NFL for a year to date one, um, but you know,
Speaker 1: long term, over the last four NFL bets, I've gotten lucky.
Speaker 1: I guess I'm profitable, so I'm hoping that it continues
Speaker 1: going forward. But again, I haven't been winning this season,
Speaker 1: but I feel confident in this week. Take it how
Speaker 1: you will, You'll get those better beds. No, no shame
Speaker 1: and no shame in being down this thus far through
Speaker 1: the season. Todd or mikey any uh any thoughts on
Speaker 1: tonight at all? Uh? I lean over just because I
Speaker 1: think this. You know, the secondary is so bad at
Speaker 1: Tampa Um even though Hurts isn't the most accurate passer.
Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia will score tonight, and I'm gonna tease them.
Speaker 1: Uh tease Tampa Bay in this spot here, because I
Speaker 1: don't think they're losing. Let me ask you this, Ace.
Speaker 1: You went back to two thousand, fifteen or sixteen with
Speaker 1: the Eagles in their home record in general in the NFL?
Speaker 1: Has it home field advantage dissipated between that time and
Speaker 1: now one I used to think standard was three points,
Speaker 1: and now I'm hard pressed to give two points. I
Speaker 1: agree one one percent, and I'm not sure if the
Speaker 1: markets caught up with that. I don't. I don't think so.
Speaker 1: So I think you're right there. There is that loss
Speaker 1: of value from that perspective as far as home field
Speaker 1: advantage goes, But I kind of weigh it with that
Speaker 1: they haven't won there yet, and I know the deuce
Speaker 1: it the dude doesn't work in sports betting. Um. But again,
Speaker 1: you're even bad teams managed to win a home game,
Speaker 1: like you should be able to the red should like
Speaker 1: you should have even some good luck, like even bad
Speaker 1: cole should go your way. So again, you don't want
Speaker 1: to depend on not to cash a ticket. Um. But
Speaker 1: it's just hard for me to see a Philadelphia team
Speaker 1: that's close to five hundred on the season and just
Speaker 1: winless at home for that trend to continue. I don't know,
Speaker 1: it's it's difficult to continue seeing that happen. By the way,
Speaker 1: last week, Tom Brady against Miami thirty of forty one
Speaker 1: for four eleven, five touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked
Speaker 1: two times. It's his eighth career game with five touchdowns
Speaker 1: and no picks, the most ever in the NFL. His
Speaker 1: first career game at the age of forty four with
Speaker 1: four hundred plus yards and five touchdowns. They outscored Miami
Speaker 1: twenty one and nothing in the fourth quarter tonight, sore
Speaker 1: thumb but he says he's a go. Tom Brady says,
Speaker 1: no big deal, he's gonna play. But they don't have
Speaker 1: Rob Gronkowski, they don't have ants on winfield. There's some
Speaker 1: others they're missing. Tampa Bay is not at full strength tonight.
Speaker 1: Anything from Utah on that, I'm probably going to use
Speaker 1: the bucks in my teaser. I'm surprised that A said
Speaker 1: that the Eagles were top ten in yards per play.
Speaker 1: If that is true, they are the most pagazy to
Speaker 1: up ten I've ever seen in my entire life. Um,
Speaker 1: they played Atlantas exactly tenants offensively, and that's fine. All
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say is I think it's phaghazy because they
Speaker 1: played at Atlanta and they moved the ball. Very nice.
Speaker 1: Tip your hat. Everyone moves the ball in Atlanta. Thank you.
Speaker 1: San Francisco. They played at home, didn't do Jack squad
Speaker 1: on offense. At Dallas. They got a lot of garbage yards.
Speaker 1: That's going into that garbage number. You know, they got
Speaker 1: a ton of garbage yards. At the end of the game.
Speaker 1: They were completely blown out. In Kansas City. Everybody moves
Speaker 1: the ball in Kansas City. Me, Gil and Mike and
Speaker 1: you playing white out to move the ball in Kansas City,
Speaker 1: so that throw that out. And then last week at
Speaker 1: Carolina they didn't do anything. They blocked upon at the
Speaker 1: end of the game and got lucky. So to me,
Speaker 1: the Eagles. No. By the way, that being said, I
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with you that the Eagles could win
Speaker 1: the game and the game could go over. Obviously, all
Speaker 1: I'm saying is I think that to think that that
Speaker 1: the Eagles are the top ten offensive team in football
Speaker 1: is just not fair because as you can see, a
Speaker 1: lot of this is phaghazy. But with that said, I'll
Speaker 1: take the bucks as part of my um my teaser later.
Speaker 1: But anyways, Neat, you'll never catch him. You'll never catch
Speaker 1: him in teasers. As soon as I said it, he
Speaker 1: wants I have full disclosure. Here's the new thing. You
Speaker 1: see where we're going to, the new narrative, Gilly. You
Speaker 1: see the new narrative, the Mikey Palm. He starts playing
Speaker 1: laying the Seeds, Mr No hyper Bowl, the Steeler of
Speaker 1: the Grievances, Gentile Grievancesances, Grievances. The I have the Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers tied into Last Monday Night's Baltimore Ravens teaser
Speaker 1: leg which was never in doubt got completely lucky with it.
Speaker 1: But that's what I have as a Tampa Bay teaser like.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if I'm going to use it moving forward.
Speaker 1: We'll see where we get to. That best bets are
Speaker 1: top three. Let's start with our first ace. What is
Speaker 1: your number one spread or totals bets sir that I'm
Speaker 1: going to have to go split the Monday night, abolutely
Speaker 1: loved the Buffalo Bills. I jumped on them immediately and
Speaker 1: laid the five. And this has come from experience, meaning
Speaker 1: back in the day, I would have never bet a
Speaker 1: team like Buffalo in this spot. They've scored thirty plus
Speaker 1: points three straight weeks. They've outperformed the betting market by
Speaker 1: double digits four straight weeks. That tells me from everything
Speaker 1: I know that you're gonna be overvalued, that the betting
Speaker 1: market is going to add a premium, that if I
Speaker 1: bade you, I am certain I'm getting more points than
Speaker 1: I should. And long term, that's the best you could
Speaker 1: ever hope for as a sports Better doesn't guarantee you're
Speaker 1: cashing a ticket that night, but guarantees you're gonna be profitable.
Speaker 1: Long term if you manage risk correctly. Um, With all
Speaker 1: of that said, I have seen certain outliers. I bet
Speaker 1: long enough that's have seen certain outliers. And there are
Speaker 1: some teams in the regular season that when they get going,
Speaker 1: they're gonna just continue to steam roll opponents. I saw
Speaker 1: Kansas City do it, I've seen Seattle do it, and
Speaker 1: now we're seeing Buffalo do it. And back in the day,
Speaker 1: I got in front of those trains and all I
Speaker 1: did was lose money, thinking I was getting the best
Speaker 1: of it. When I found out looking back, I was
Speaker 1: taking the worst of it because they were outperforming the
Speaker 1: betting market continued to do so, so they proved the
Speaker 1: betting market wrong. Yes, it's efficient, it's as efficient as
Speaker 1: it gets, but it's still we know, historically ten points
Speaker 1: off the closing line when it's all said and done.
Speaker 1: And I think this is one of those teams that
Speaker 1: we're they're gonna get sharp money fading them. So that's
Speaker 1: gonna eliminate some of the risk for the books. But
Speaker 1: the public is gonna roll on this team and gonna
Speaker 1: keep cashing tickets, and I'm not gonna stand in front
Speaker 1: of it. I'm gonna roll on top of them. That's
Speaker 1: what I've learned betting. As long as I have that,
Speaker 1: sometimes you gotta put those old school, you know, rules
Speaker 1: of the side and realize things change and you gotta,
Speaker 1: you know, be able to adapt. So for me, I
Speaker 1: saw that immediately, and I'm like, that's a game where
Speaker 1: I would have been all over Tennessee. I would have
Speaker 1: been certain I got the best of it. So that's
Speaker 1: why I'm not even going into metrics or any of
Speaker 1: that on this game. It's simply reasoning, and for me,
Speaker 1: like it doesn't make it any more simpler than that. Yes,
Speaker 1: this team is probably gonna be favored more than we
Speaker 1: think they should, and they're still gonna go out there
Speaker 1: and cover even though Sharks think fading them has given
Speaker 1: them the best of it. Because I've seen, like I said,
Speaker 1: I've seen New England do it. I've seen Kansas City
Speaker 1: do it. I've seen Seattle do it during the regular season,
Speaker 1: and I'm watching Buffalo do it in real time and
Speaker 1: I'm not going to fade that. And you learn from
Speaker 1: history or you fail, you know you're doomed to repeat it.
Speaker 1: And I paid a lot for my education. I've got
Speaker 1: a Harvard education, an Ivy League education, the amount of
Speaker 1: money I've lost to learn how to win, and I'm
Speaker 1: not losing any more fading teams like Buffalo. It's it's
Speaker 1: an interesting thing that the game has so evolved since
Speaker 1: you and I used to do this megapod back in
Speaker 1: the day. It is such a and from a betting perspective,
Speaker 1: for sure, the most interesting Buffalo stad. I don't know
Speaker 1: if it's the most interesting, but it is an interesting
Speaker 1: one to me. And they sort of flashed this up
Speaker 1: quickly the other night when they were crushing Kansas City
Speaker 1: during the lightning delay. Buffalo has led it halftime in
Speaker 1: fourteen straight regular season games. Now, when you hear that,
Speaker 1: you're like, that's interesting. That's an NFL record that's never
Speaker 1: happened before. Fourteen to thirty minutes of football. It's one
Speaker 1: thing to be tied, right, but to lead by the
Speaker 1: half in fourteen consecutive games is also perhaps another way
Speaker 1: to bet the Buffalo Bills. If if that you're such
Speaker 1: a big favorite though, to win the game, if you
Speaker 1: go into a half with the lead, I mean we
Speaker 1: know that historically, so I mean they're doing everything right.
Speaker 1: It's just as if they're grasping analytics, like somebody's teams
Speaker 1: seem to be grasping it quicker than others. They know,
Speaker 1: if you jump on your opponent, it it puts you
Speaker 1: in a higher probability of winning. If you take a lead,
Speaker 1: it puts you in a higher probability of winning. So
Speaker 1: you see these coaches devising these game plans to jump
Speaker 1: on opponents, and some teams have been able to do it.
Speaker 1: We saw Kansas City do it and have such success
Speaker 1: with it, and Buffalo is copying that same blueprint offensively.
Speaker 1: And it seems to me like their defenses come around
Speaker 1: now because they posted two shutouts in the last four weeks.
Speaker 1: So again, it's just a team. I don't want to
Speaker 1: get him run up. Even if they lose this game,
Speaker 1: there's no reason to fade on when they're rolling like
Speaker 1: they're rolling. A lot of people have in power rated
Speaker 1: number one. I do. They were doing this at the
Speaker 1: end of last year. Remember in the last five six
Speaker 1: weeks they were blowing everybody out and mostly division games
Speaker 1: by twenty or thirty to aces point. This was one
Speaker 1: of the biggest decisions of the year at CIRCA was
Speaker 1: Sunday night. We needed Buffalo. The sharp money was all
Speaker 1: on Kansas City. It's on Kansas City, Yes, exactly, exactly that,
Speaker 1: and little quickly start not not to go long. That's
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. It's it's that kind of thing,
Speaker 1: and we're seeing it even with Kansas City, where now
Speaker 1: it's like, are people willing to admit that are they
Speaker 1: not as good as we think? Are they going to
Speaker 1: keep betting them? But with Buffalo, like you said, they
Speaker 1: we're looking to fade. Then, like, wait, this team and
Speaker 1: they're too hot, they're they're winning, they're outperforming too much.
Speaker 1: They're due to regress. I don't see it. You said,
Speaker 1: they've continued it from last season as far as the
Speaker 1: metrics go. So again, they're just a dangerous team that
Speaker 1: got ahead. They're going to regress. They might not aggress
Speaker 1: against Tennessee, well said Ace. Does it give you any
Speaker 1: pause that this was the worst spot last you remember
Speaker 1: this was the weird Tuesday night game and it was
Speaker 1: a house of horrors for them down there. Everything went
Speaker 1: wrong in Tennessee, the turnovers and they got actually by
Speaker 1: the middle of the third quarter they pulled Allen and
Speaker 1: they just gave up on the game. Remember does that?
Speaker 1: How does that? How does that affect your handicap. Does
Speaker 1: that make you think they have that game on their
Speaker 1: mind from last year or does it make you think
Speaker 1: they're thinking about what can go wrong again. If it
Speaker 1: wasn't Monday night, I'd be a little bit concerned that
Speaker 1: they're coming off a big win and they don't have
Speaker 1: much on deck. They have winnable games I had. They
Speaker 1: have Miami, they have Jacksonville, they have the Jets, so
Speaker 1: it's nothing to really worry about coming ahead. But it's
Speaker 1: Monday Night football. You just beat Kansas City as a dog.
Speaker 1: Everyone thought you're gonna lose that game. You need to
Speaker 1: showcase your team where if you are legit, you're supposed
Speaker 1: to show off on Monday Night. You're supposed to come
Speaker 1: out and crush this team, especially after what happened last season,
Speaker 1: gives you even more of the reason to show us
Speaker 1: things that you are now the best team in the
Speaker 1: a f C. Like this is good. This is a
Speaker 1: telling game. Even though they're not playing a Tampa Bay,
Speaker 1: they're not playing a Green Bay, it's still a telling
Speaker 1: game because again, you're supposed to be able to win
Speaker 1: these games. Coming off a win in Kansas City. If
Speaker 1: you're a legit so for me that the Monday night,
Speaker 1: the fact they're playing on under the lights on prime time,
Speaker 1: coming off a win like that, I think gives them
Speaker 1: the motivation to keep going, to not have that potential
Speaker 1: let down against a team like Tennessee, especially, like I said,
Speaker 1: with nothing ahead to get excited about. Key yours number one.
Speaker 1: I thought this game opened wrong with the wrong favorite
Speaker 1: with Carolina and the Vikings. I like the Vikings here,
Speaker 1: it's now Vikings one. Is that the number todd Yes, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'll lay the one here. I'd lay up to a
Speaker 1: field goal here. Um, this is like this this Sam
Speaker 1: Darno is not a winner. Okay, he's never won anywhere.
Speaker 1: He didn't win. They were bad at USC, He didn't
Speaker 1: win with the Jets. They beat the dregs of the NFL.
Speaker 1: This first three games, right what Carolina played early with
Speaker 1: with Houston Denver dregs. But still they're similar. I mean,
Speaker 1: and you can only play. But they're not good. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: they couldn't put up any points against Philadelphia the second
Speaker 1: half last week. They had so many chances to extend
Speaker 1: the game and they and they hung around. I still
Speaker 1: think this Vikings team is a playoff team. I know
Speaker 1: it's Kirk Cousins. I know Todd doesn't like Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: It's hard to trust Kirk Cousins. But look and they
Speaker 1: play if you go back and look at them in
Speaker 1: the Cousins there, and they play better on the road.
Speaker 1: On grass, they played very well. Uh, they played very
Speaker 1: well um at San Diego last year. I like this
Speaker 1: team when they get outdoors and on the grass, I
Speaker 1: think they're better. I don't think Carolina has much offensive
Speaker 1: punch here. I think the Vikings are appreciably better on offense.
Speaker 1: I can't see them losing this game really, even though
Speaker 1: it's a it's a road spot. They gotta stay in
Speaker 1: this race. Uh, in the in the NFC North, And
Speaker 1: to me, this is clearly the best play on the
Speaker 1: board this that Vikings game for those who missed it,
Speaker 1: for those of us who had survivor will will not
Speaker 1: soon forget it. Vikings up sixteen and nine. They're trying
Speaker 1: to milk the clock. There would have been about one
Speaker 1: twenty left for the Lions to try to go downfield
Speaker 1: for a touchdown instead, and Alexander Madison fumble after they
Speaker 1: didn't call forward progress. He gets stripped. Lions touchdown that
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell goes for two and gets it. But five
Speaker 1: plays forties six yards later in thirties seven seconds. Greg
Speaker 1: Joseph from fifty four Vikings win, what what do you
Speaker 1: make the number gill at the point that Detroit's kicking
Speaker 1: off the Minnesota with thirty seven seconds? I think it's
Speaker 1: like a pick him at that point, whether the Vikings
Speaker 1: are going to kick a fiegal? Then why do you
Speaker 1: think the Vikings are favored to get a field goal? Oh? Dog? Well,
Speaker 1: I think they became a dog because remember they kicked
Speaker 1: it short of the goal line, and they spent six
Speaker 1: seconds only got back to the fift They played it
Speaker 1: exactly right, but then they allowed the big pass down
Speaker 1: the middle of it all. Well, the problem is they
Speaker 1: had two time outs left, which is a It's a
Speaker 1: very different game when you have thirty one seconds and
Speaker 1: two time outs versus thirty one seconds and no time outs.
Speaker 1: That's a gigantic difference. I'm so, you know the Vikings
Speaker 1: had more chance than you would have otherwise thought, but
Speaker 1: still at the fifteen yard line, I think they're a dog.
Speaker 1: You didn't say it the fifteen I said before the kickoff, Okay,
Speaker 1: before the kickoff fair enough, but the two time outs
Speaker 1: was the huge thing because it means they can throw
Speaker 1: it over the middle a couple of times. That's huge. Obviously,
Speaker 1: it's still cut presence, and it's still Detroit. It's still Detroit,
Speaker 1: sadly for them. Yeah, Todd, your first my first picket's
Speaker 1: very interesting. I liked what it said because I think
Speaker 1: a lot of sports gambling is always will the street
Speaker 1: continue or will the regression happen? That's a lot of
Speaker 1: what you're gonna do if you get into nitty gritty
Speaker 1: sports gambling often is what am I? You know, many
Speaker 1: most of the teams in the NFL are gonna finish
Speaker 1: between you know, seven and nine, six and ten, you know,
Speaker 1: in the sixteen games season, not in the seventeen games.
Speaker 1: But against the spread, they're gonna be very close to
Speaker 1: the to the average most of the teams. So there
Speaker 1: are gonna be the outlier team that just steam rolls.
Speaker 1: And my pick is gonna be similar to that in
Speaker 1: the sense that I'm gonna go over fifty five and
Speaker 1: a half in the Chiefs game. Now that you you
Speaker 1: might say, well, wait to say, but the Chiefs go
Speaker 1: over every single week. So you're paying a premium to
Speaker 1: bet them over, but the thing is on the over unders.
Speaker 1: I find it even more. I don't know if you
Speaker 1: find it even more ace, but I find it even
Speaker 1: more that they're regression often doesn't happen. A couple of
Speaker 1: years ago, I was on Guilt Show a bunch of times,
Speaker 1: uh in two thousand nineteen, and I kept hammering Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay to the over Tampa Bay, to the over Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay to the over. Jameis Winston would give you a
Speaker 1: touchdown for on his side, and their defense was horrible,
Speaker 1: and they would go over every single week, and it
Speaker 1: didn't matter how high they made it. I think that
Speaker 1: that's what's going on with the Chiefs um in this
Speaker 1: football season, because the Chiefs are the greatest over concoction
Speaker 1: that you can create the best offense, or at least
Speaker 1: the top three offense and a defense that's worse than
Speaker 1: thirty second. I put them at thirty seven in d
Speaker 1: v o A, you know there. I put a bunch
Speaker 1: of college teams ahead of them and then their thirty seven.
Speaker 1: But the Chiefs are not a legitimate NFL defensive team,
Speaker 1: so they're going to give up points. Tyler had Taylor
Speaker 1: Henneke is not that terrible. He can move you down
Speaker 1: the field and get your point. Look at the Eagles
Speaker 1: can get thirty points against the Chiefs and get some
Speaker 1: backdoor touchdowns. Why can't the Redskins do or the Washington
Speaker 1: football team do it? The washingt football team can do it.
Speaker 1: And you know the chief just are going to score
Speaker 1: this week week. You know they're going to score. So
Speaker 1: put mark them down for thirty eight. And how many
Speaker 1: do I need to go over? Fifty five and a
Speaker 1: half after that? Whatever, it is, fifty five and a
Speaker 1: half minus thirty eight, that's seventeen and a half. Give
Speaker 1: me Washington for more than that and I get the
Speaker 1: over fifty five and a half, Thank you very much.
Speaker 1: I'm want to know Casey allowed four hundred thirty six
Speaker 1: total yards to Buffalo on Sunday night, but minus four
Speaker 1: and turnovers did them in. By the way, I don't
Speaker 1: know if you heard Rick doc Walker on Lombardi. Someone
Speaker 1: told me he sub was like, hey, Rick doc Walker
Speaker 1: was on Lombardi. He's an old, old Washington football teamer,
Speaker 1: won Super Bowls with Joe Gibbs, and he is uh.
Speaker 1: He still is very tied into the Washington football team,
Speaker 1: and he was just going off on that defensive line,
Speaker 1: and specifically without saying his name, he was going off
Speaker 1: on Chase Young and basically saying, it's all ego, like
Speaker 1: these guys only care about their specific role. They're not
Speaker 1: playing team defense. And he's flying by the quarterback. Lombardi
Speaker 1: always talks about no one likes flying back past a
Speaker 1: quarterback more than Chase Young. It's just I don't know
Speaker 1: if they can get it together this defense. But Gil, you,
Speaker 1: but Gil, wouldn't you. Let's say you're on a mediocre
Speaker 1: football team. You you're gonna play for two or three years,
Speaker 1: the average length of your your your NFL careers, two
Speaker 1: or three years. You've got a cash in immediately right now.
Speaker 1: This is your only opportunity. I know. We say, oh,
Speaker 1: we're gonna do it for the team. You gotta do
Speaker 1: it for the team. It's bs. These guys aren't stupid.
Speaker 1: They know they're a brand. They know that they only
Speaker 1: have a couple of years to play. I probably do
Speaker 1: the same thing. Now. You know, you want to say
Speaker 1: that that's horrible and that's not what we were led
Speaker 1: to believe here in America. You play good for the team.
Speaker 1: But that's let's be realistic. These guys aren't stupid. They
Speaker 1: know if I get more sacks, I get more money. Right,
Speaker 1: But you may be right is the point. But you
Speaker 1: know what he was saying is and it's a great
Speaker 1: point about those Super Bowl teams that were coached under
Speaker 1: Richie petty Bone, which is we Washington had a guy
Speaker 1: Dexter Manley back in those days that did his own
Speaker 1: thing right and sometimes we'll get you three sacks on
Speaker 1: a drive against Phil Sims. He was just unbelievable, but
Speaker 1: he played his own defensive concept. It was Dexter doing Dexter,
Speaker 1: and you had other guys like Rich Mullott and like
Speaker 1: Darryl world Grant who knew what Dexter was doing and
Speaker 1: almost made up for it right, Like they were playing
Speaker 1: with that kind of thinking. And you just don't get
Speaker 1: that from these guys you know today. As talented as
Speaker 1: that Washington front four is, and it is talented, but
Speaker 1: that secondary is a brutal and if the defensive front
Speaker 1: is not pressuring the quarterback consistently and getting to him, uh,
Speaker 1: they're in trouble. And Patrick Mahomes may score a million
Speaker 1: points on them. They got two turnovers off Jamis right
Speaker 1: off the bat and couldn't do it. I mean and
Speaker 1: and couldn't. The hail Mary was was like you're literally
Speaker 1: watching that. You're like, you guys, aren't you guys didn't
Speaker 1: jump for it for that ball. No, no one jumped
Speaker 1: for it. Was unbelievable, how ridiculous that was at the
Speaker 1: end of the first half. My my first picks a
Speaker 1: is the Los Angeles Chargers. On guessing lines with Christy
Speaker 1: on Monday, this was the line that made no sense
Speaker 1: to me. That was before were the Ravens played Monday night.
Speaker 1: I guess to pick him. This was this was at
Speaker 1: that moment, Ravens minus three and a half even, and
Speaker 1: I just thought that was ridiculous. It's Ravens, I guess
Speaker 1: minus three still, uh, in most spots, maybe there's two
Speaker 1: and a half. Either way, give me the Chargers. Every
Speaker 1: time Brandon Staley opens his mouth, I fall deeper in love.
Speaker 1: Like this guy is to me, he's the best coach
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Said it last week on the show.
Speaker 1: I cannot be talked off this position, and I think
Speaker 1: justin Herbert besides Patrick Mahomes, is the guy start an
Speaker 1: NFL franchise with that defense. By the way, they do
Speaker 1: play team defense. They know what their strength is, they
Speaker 1: know what the weakness is. They play a Cover two,
Speaker 1: they know that that's their identity. I think they can
Speaker 1: outscore anybody. And Baltimore, even in victory, even then I
Speaker 1: come back win over Indianapolis did nothing to let me
Speaker 1: think that they're that great of a football team. Give
Speaker 1: me the points. What is it three or two and
Speaker 1: a half, Todd, We'll give you the three two and
Speaker 1: a half. We'll give you the three. He's given me
Speaker 1: the three Chargers plus three. That's my first pick, Ace
Speaker 1: number two. Oh, we sneaking this? What are we doing?
Speaker 1: Are we sneaking? We should go first? Go first, go first,
Speaker 1: go ahead. I'm gonna go with that same football game.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go over forty nine and a half in
Speaker 1: the Browns against the Chargers. I really like, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, sor I'm sorry, I screwed up. I'm sorry
Speaker 1: Browns against the different, different, different game, not the same game.
Speaker 1: I was thinking about last week's. I was thinking about
Speaker 1: last I'm sorry the Browns. I just kept watching Kareem
Speaker 1: Hunt and the other guy just run for like a
Speaker 1: thousand yards um Cleveland against Arizona. I want the over
Speaker 1: forty nine and a half. Arizona to me is also
Speaker 1: a very over ish team this year. They're scoring a
Speaker 1: billion points. Uh, Cleveland gave up, I think to to
Speaker 1: the Charges last week. I you know, I think Cleveland's
Speaker 1: defense is pretty good, but you know this Kyler Murray guy,
Speaker 1: they're very good on offense. Arizona, I really like what
Speaker 1: they're doing on offense, and uh, you only have to
Speaker 1: go over forty nine and a half on the other
Speaker 1: side of the ball. I don't know how Arizona is
Speaker 1: gonna stop Cleveland from running because you know, I don't know,
Speaker 1: have you guys seen this Twitter stuff where Brian Baldinger
Speaker 1: puts up these uh the all twenty two and then
Speaker 1: he goes through like what different plays almost like they
Speaker 1: used to do on NFL Live. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you guys have seen that happen, but yeah, yeah, it's
Speaker 1: really good. But anyways, that he's showing like some of
Speaker 1: the running plays against the Chargers last week with the
Speaker 1: Browns getting just gigantic holes, I really realistically think the
Speaker 1: over under on a prop for me at fullback for
Speaker 1: the Browns right now is probably over fifty eight and
Speaker 1: a half because the holes are so big you can
Speaker 1: just drive a mack truck through. I think Cleveland's gonna
Speaker 1: move the ball. I think Arizona is gonna move the ball.
Speaker 1: Arizona and another shootout game. Give me over forty nine
Speaker 1: and a half. Let me let me interject though, Todd,
Speaker 1: I don't know if you're aware of this. So yesterday
Speaker 1: Chub and Hunt not practicing, and on defense Jadeveon Clowney
Speaker 1: and Miles Garrett both with injuries that they have to
Speaker 1: do that part for you, but the offensive part is
Speaker 1: not good for you. So here's the thing. The one team,
Speaker 1: the one position that I don't care if I have
Speaker 1: injuries at is running back because I feel that the
Speaker 1: reason Hunt and and Um and Um Chubb are running now.
Speaker 1: Granted they're good backs, but the holes that they're getting
Speaker 1: to run through them are so massive. I mean, they're
Speaker 1: just it reminds me of Terrell Davis. Do you remember
Speaker 1: when Terrell Davis was with Elway and they would hand
Speaker 1: him the ball and he would just have like huge
Speaker 1: caverns to run through. And they're just running the ball.
Speaker 1: I don't care who they give it to they give
Speaker 1: it to Mike Paum in the backfield, he's gonna run
Speaker 1: for Andrew Well. They had in defeat last week against
Speaker 1: the Charges. They had five one total yards, two hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty rushing to your point, Todd, thirty six minutes
Speaker 1: of possession. The third and the first team since the
Speaker 1: eighty nine Bengals with a hundred and fifty plus rushing
Speaker 1: yards in each of the first five games of a season.
Speaker 1: Ikey Woods, I was right, I was saying. I was saying.
Speaker 1: The only thing I remember the eighty nine Bengals team
Speaker 1: is Washington played them the last game of the season.
Speaker 1: It was one of Joe gibbs few non playoff seasons
Speaker 1: and Jamie Morris carried the ball forty five times against
Speaker 1: him for Washington. He was like, let's just get out
Speaker 1: of here. Go ahead, Jamie carry the rocket. But by
Speaker 1: the way, and it's not a phaghazy stats. These are
Speaker 1: not phaghazy stats. Watched the games. The Browns are running
Speaker 1: through holes that are ridiculous. It's ridiculous. You don't see
Speaker 1: that in the NFL. Todd, you said you really like
Speaker 1: this Arizona offense. Did you like him not scoring for
Speaker 1: three quarters against San Francisco after they got up not
Speaker 1: saying I mean, and do you think that Kyler is
Speaker 1: starting to take He's a little man that your friend
Speaker 1: Michael Lombardi calls him the mayor of Munchkinville. He's starting
Speaker 1: to show a little bit of wear and tear. And
Speaker 1: it's early in the season. But they're not what they
Speaker 1: were early. Okay, I mean we'll see. You know, one
Speaker 1: game they scored seventeen points and you go to they
Speaker 1: scored thirty seven points at the Los Angeles Rams, reposed
Speaker 1: to be the vaunted Los Angeles Rams. They scored thirty
Speaker 1: four against Minnesota. I mean, come on that. I think
Speaker 1: that was one of the great reactions. Okay, okay, okay,
Speaker 1: you gotta make up. Yeah, I get it, and I
Speaker 1: get it. It's number two. I'm gonna take the I'm
Speaker 1: forced to make two more picks. I'm gonna take the
Speaker 1: Cowboys and lay the three and a half. Here, boy,
Speaker 1: this New England defense looked so slow in that game.
Speaker 1: They just look I mean, they made they made they
Speaker 1: made uh Davis Mills look like John Elway there from Stanford. No,
Speaker 1: but they did. I mean, they looked like Houston had
Speaker 1: a formable, a formal offense. They just went came from
Speaker 1: Buffalo where they scored zero points. I mean, look, they're
Speaker 1: they're just not good. And now you're gonna take on
Speaker 1: a Dallas team. Dex got all these weapons. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think Dallas is gonna score a ton of points
Speaker 1: in this game. And here's to Todd's point about New England,
Speaker 1: the dinking and the dunking, and I mean, when you
Speaker 1: have to play have fourteen fifteen yard drives, the holding
Speaker 1: penalty stops it and the likelihood of a turnover, and
Speaker 1: Dallas is so good at creating these turnovers. I think
Speaker 1: Dallas has a big upper hand in this game. And
Speaker 1: I think this number is short. I can't argue with her.
Speaker 1: What's that Houston spread against the Colts? I have uston
Speaker 1: against the Colts. I see do you see ten? Todd?
Speaker 1: Is that we're going ten? Okay, Well, I'm taking Houston. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm having an indian I'm taking Indianapolis and survivor. Here's
Speaker 1: how I know Houston is gonna cover because I'm doing that,
Speaker 1: and so I know I know it's gonna be close.
Speaker 1: Um listen, I'm not racing to the window about Houston.
Speaker 1: Plus ten. I'm not I'm not gonna give the impression
Speaker 1: that I am super excited about that. But on principle,
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts should not be ten point favorites against anyone.
Speaker 1: Should not be And I don't trust Carson Wentz. I
Speaker 1: don't trust that team in any situation. And Houston really
Speaker 1: did show me something last week. Uh for gonna say
Speaker 1: they had to Rod Taylor. They may actually win few
Speaker 1: ball games, but they don't. And it is Davis Mills.
Speaker 1: And I do expect Indianapolis to win, but I expect
Speaker 1: it to be far more of a sweat um than
Speaker 1: than his imagined. And they still have Brandon Cooks. He's
Speaker 1: like the one real football player on that team. I
Speaker 1: just don't get the sense from the Colts that they
Speaker 1: are in any way. And Carson Carson Wentz does a
Speaker 1: few things every game where he's spinning, whirling dervish and
Speaker 1: Jamis Winston style. He just tries to do something and
Speaker 1: I'm like, when did he start doing that? Um? So
Speaker 1: I think that comes into playing this game. Um, I
Speaker 1: just think it's too many points. The Colts should not
Speaker 1: be ten point favorites against anyone. Give me the ten
Speaker 1: points on principle, It's like Ace was talking about, just
Speaker 1: sort of the Malcolm Gladwell blink thing. I don't have
Speaker 1: any super analysis other to say, like, give me all
Speaker 1: of them points and if you can, if you can
Speaker 1: beat me Indianapolis and cover that tip of the cap.
Speaker 1: I don't think they Houston number two a well. Green
Speaker 1: Bay's getting steamed right now. They just got hit in
Speaker 1: my accounts at minus four and a half. That's going
Speaker 1: up to five five and a half soon, if anyone
Speaker 1: out there is paying attention. But here's my pick. I
Speaker 1: wish you wouldn't have stay snake because I'm opposite of
Speaker 1: Todd and now that worries me because he's on the show.
Speaker 1: Like I said, I'm down for the NFL season, but
Speaker 1: I went under fifty and I know it's forty nine
Speaker 1: and a half now and that wouldn't change my mind.
Speaker 1: I don't still think it's plus c V. Here's why
Speaker 1: hear me out. I just think this is the perfect
Speaker 1: storm for an under. The books have done a really
Speaker 1: good job of pricing the totals for both of these teams.
Speaker 1: They knew coming into the season that Arizona offense was
Speaker 1: gonna score and the Cleveland offense was gonna score. The
Speaker 1: question with Cleveland was did they do enough on the
Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball in the off season when
Speaker 1: they picked up those free agents and through the draft.
Speaker 1: That was the question. The offense was already set of
Speaker 1: the fact that we're going into Week six and they're
Speaker 1: five and five combined over and under, meaning you haven't
Speaker 1: made money betting the overs on these teams combined. The
Speaker 1: books have done a very good job. I pay attention
Speaker 1: to that because that tells me they have a really
Speaker 1: good grasp of these teams. They're not beating them, they're
Speaker 1: not hurting them. A team like Arizona that's five and
Speaker 1: ohs straight off four and one a t s and
Speaker 1: betters are betting them every week for them to be
Speaker 1: two and three towards the under tells me the books
Speaker 1: have a really good grasp of this team as far
Speaker 1: as total goes, and they're managing that risk really well.
Speaker 1: And I think with this game, fifty was too high.
Speaker 1: Forty nine and a half is still too high. And
Speaker 1: here's why. Yes, the offenses are potent, but it's the
Speaker 1: defensive side of the bull that's not getting enough credit.
Speaker 1: And some of the reason for why these teams are
Speaker 1: where they are. I mean, you look at now scoring defense.
Speaker 1: Arizona sixth in the NFL A Cleveland's eleven in the
Speaker 1: NFL scoring defense. Usually that's not the case when you're
Speaker 1: lighting up the scoreboard. Just think Kansas City. They didn't
Speaker 1: have a top scoring d y because when you're up
Speaker 1: forty points, how much effort can you possibly put on
Speaker 1: the defensive side of the ball. The teams are more
Speaker 1: or less just thrown all the time anyway, make a
Speaker 1: long story short, that's very impressive that their defense is
Speaker 1: holding teams like that even though they're they're crushing um.
Speaker 1: And then it's not just on the scoreboard. You dig
Speaker 1: a little deeper and yards per play, they're really shutting
Speaker 1: these teams down. Another situation where Cleveland's a top ten
Speaker 1: defensive yards per play team and Arizona is just outside
Speaker 1: the top ten. So as dangerous and the narrative is,
Speaker 1: you know, lethal they are offensively, it's on the defensive
Speaker 1: side of the ball. I think that they don't get
Speaker 1: enough credit. And what Gil touched on stuck out to
Speaker 1: me a lot. Also, just how many players are questionable
Speaker 1: or injured on both these teams offense to believe. For Arizona,
Speaker 1: you got Murray questionable, Edmunds, Hopkins, Daniels, Hudson out. I
Speaker 1: mean the fact that questionable tells me they're not. And
Speaker 1: then on the Cleveland side, both running backs with chubbing
Speaker 1: her they're hunt they're both questionable, So don't banged up.
Speaker 1: And even though the wide receivers receivers, if you look
Speaker 1: at the skilled positions, if one of those guys god forbid,
Speaker 1: twists and ankle, they're in a lot of trouble. Two
Speaker 1: of their three backup wide receivers are on injured reserve.
Speaker 1: So this team, again on the offensive side, aren't all
Speaker 1: that deep. And we're getting into the part of the
Speaker 1: season where injuries start to matter whether it's gonna start
Speaker 1: to play a role, specially in the ease coach, especially
Speaker 1: on the cold weather cities. To me, I I just
Speaker 1: this one screamed up perfect storm for value on an under,
Speaker 1: so I bet it. But again, you know the fact
Speaker 1: that Todd faded me doesn't make me all that confident.
Speaker 1: I don't bet a lot of pregame. It's on NFL
Speaker 1: A so if if so, you shouldn't be too worried.
Speaker 1: But the only thing that I would say about that
Speaker 1: is Cleveland played well defensively at Minnesota. I'll give them
Speaker 1: credit for that. They played well against the Chicago Bears,
Speaker 1: I'll give them no credit on that. And they played
Speaker 1: well decently against Houston and weren't really playing that well
Speaker 1: and Tyrod Taylor was in the game on defense at all.
Speaker 1: And they didn't play well against Kansas City. And last
Speaker 1: week against the Charges, I do believe they gave up
Speaker 1: almost fifty points, so I maybe they're a little bit
Speaker 1: not as good as everyone thinks they are. Um And
Speaker 1: then you know, on the Arizona side, Arizona gave up
Speaker 1: thirty three to Minnesota. I mean he played Jacksonville would say,
Speaker 1: I think the Chargers got some luck in that game
Speaker 1: with some calls and he's fourth down, And I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know that the Cleveland defense is as bad
Speaker 1: as the final score indicate. Remember I'm not saying they
Speaker 1: remember that game against Minnesota. Minnesota had that long drive
Speaker 1: to open the game, they scored on fourth and goal,
Speaker 1: they never got back in the red zone at home.
Speaker 1: A good offensive team against the lines, and how many
Speaker 1: did Minnesota score against the lines in Minnesota? Is not
Speaker 1: this Juggernaut offensive team anymore. I don't see them as
Speaker 1: you know, stopping them as said, well, look, we'll see
Speaker 1: obviously that's what makes it fun. But and you could
Speaker 1: you can make the argument both ways. All I'm saying
Speaker 1: is I think sometimes the Browns are a little bit
Speaker 1: over inflated on defense since we talked about home field advantages,
Speaker 1: sort of like the macro things that have changed betting
Speaker 1: the NFL. The other thing is that injury report stuff
Speaker 1: like so I do primetime Action with Matt Brown, who,
Speaker 1: by the way, was three and oh want to know
Speaker 1: teaser when he was on the shows What's Rufus? Three?
Speaker 1: And all with and Losch the teaser. Wait, I'll tell
Speaker 1: you Rufus was Saints minus two e one, Bengals plus
Speaker 1: three was a push, Pittsburgh was a win. He had
Speaker 1: Browns in Seattle, so he did not win. He got
Speaker 1: Gino Smiths. Yeah. Yeah. The other thing is the injury
Speaker 1: reports stuff. I do primetime Action with Matt Brown and
Speaker 1: Kelly Bidlin on MSG plus Monday through Friday night, our
Speaker 1: Friday night show for three hours. I'm not been kidding,
Speaker 1: like maybe two hours and forty five minutes of it
Speaker 1: is nothing, but going through NFL injury reports, because if
Speaker 1: you don't have that information, this is all nonsense. Like,
Speaker 1: it's amazing how much now teams have cluster injuries in
Speaker 1: a way that they never did before. I don't know
Speaker 1: if it's because we lost one preseason game and the
Speaker 1: injuries happened quicker. I think it's been going on for
Speaker 1: a couple of years now. Like fantasy players will tell
Speaker 1: you this, it's like, oh, my team's decimated. It's Week three.
Speaker 1: So it's it's always huge to know because a lot
Speaker 1: of big names appear on these things. Um a spot
Speaker 1: why it built, by the way, which is why in
Speaker 1: game is the way to bet the National Football League,
Speaker 1: Because if you know that there's injuries, guess what. See
Speaker 1: here's the thing I don't like. You go in, they go, oh,
Speaker 1: there's so many injuries. They don't tell you that the
Speaker 1: second stringer is good or the second stringer is bad.
Speaker 1: You don't know. But you watched the game. Now you
Speaker 1: watch the first twenty minutes of the foot all game
Speaker 1: and you get to see you are the cluster injuries
Speaker 1: hurting them, the cluster injuries not hurting them, And now
Speaker 1: you have all so much more information. So I don't
Speaker 1: know why. I know what. People don't don't want to
Speaker 1: bet ind game, but to me, it's the only way
Speaker 1: to go. Ace before you give you a third pick.
Speaker 1: You're still doing UFC stuff? Oh yeah, absolutely. I do
Speaker 1: the Contender Series show every Tuesday, Danavits Contender Series and
Speaker 1: then you know, I do uh the show for Fight Pass.
Speaker 1: We're on our third season and I do that pretty
Speaker 1: much once or twice a month, we do a show. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm still with them. I'm moving like the fourth year,
Speaker 1: the last year of my contract, so we'll see what
Speaker 1: happens after that of it. I'm having a great time.
Speaker 1: It's been a great Bryan. I didn't want to go
Speaker 1: through the whole show without plug in your UFC stuff.
Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you. It's a lot of fun. What's
Speaker 1: your number three? All right, I'm gonna share this one
Speaker 1: because I kind of have an opinion on the side
Speaker 1: and the total, so you kind of get a little
Speaker 1: bonus pick in there. But we'll we'll use I'll go
Speaker 1: to the side as the pick. And here's why, because
Speaker 1: I'm going against even one of the groups that I
Speaker 1: moved for that bet to my Aami Dolphins, but they
Speaker 1: bet him at minus three, and they're one of those
Speaker 1: groups that they do really good at getting out ahead
Speaker 1: of the market and knowing which direction it's gonna go.
Speaker 1: So I think it was a case of them believing
Speaker 1: it's gonna go to three and a half, if not four,
Speaker 1: because it's Jacksonville Jaguars. So I'm not afraid there's a
Speaker 1: little bit of sharp money against me. Here's my bet
Speaker 1: on the Jaguars. It's not a bet on Jacksonville. I
Speaker 1: am fading the Miami Dolphins, and hear me out. This
Speaker 1: is my only argument that they have no business at all,
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins being a favorite on the road against
Speaker 1: anybody at all. If you look at Miami so far
Speaker 1: this season, they've been a dog every single game except
Speaker 1: once at home against Indianapolis, and they lost that one
Speaker 1: by double digits. So this team number one has no
Speaker 1: business being a favorite, let alone no road favorite against anyone,
Speaker 1: right right, right, right, right right regardless. Okay, I got you,
Speaker 1: But I'm saying that they're they're even favored anywhere on
Speaker 1: the planet, even in Moore's This team shouldn't be favored
Speaker 1: over anyone at all. Now you look at the Jacksonville side,
Speaker 1: all right on the performing just as expected. But why
Speaker 1: where in the metrics other than strength of schedule should
Speaker 1: Miami be a favorite. I look at yours per play,
Speaker 1: the only team worst than Jacksonville on the offensive side
Speaker 1: of the ball is Miami. The only team worst than
Speaker 1: Jacksonville on the defensive side of the ball is Miami.
Speaker 1: If I look at oh, well, how do you win
Speaker 1: football games? Scoring points scored, points allowed offense defense, the
Speaker 1: only team worst than Jacksonville that's scored less Miami. The
Speaker 1: only defense that's allowed more points than Jacksonville is Miami.
Speaker 1: So why in what world is Miami favor over Jacksonville?
Speaker 1: And makes absolutely no sense except the thorough win team
Speaker 1: against a winless team. And personally, I think the winless team,
Speaker 1: if anything, has incentive and motivation to not remain winless.
Speaker 1: Like to me, that's something you can't quantify obviously, So
Speaker 1: that's one of those edges I think is a better
Speaker 1: that is impossible for the oddsmaker to factor into the price.
Speaker 1: But I think if I'm a winless team, that's got
Speaker 1: to give me some kind of motivation, man, to like,
Speaker 1: just get that that monkey off your back. You gotta
Speaker 1: get a win and then it don't matter after that.
Speaker 1: For Miami, this has just been a disappointing season because
Speaker 1: they came in, they beat the New England Patriots as
Speaker 1: road underdogs, and then what happened? The wheels have come
Speaker 1: off and now they're looking at No, they're going nowhere.
Speaker 1: You're not making the playoffs, you're not catching up in
Speaker 1: the a f C East. So for me, it's just
Speaker 1: a spot where I'm not betting Jacksonville again. Jacksonville is
Speaker 1: a terrible team, arguably the worst team in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Um They're not the lowest on my power ratings, but
Speaker 1: I'm sure on a few they are and I couldn't argue.
Speaker 1: But does it give you does it give you any
Speaker 1: pause that it could be to a here this weekend
Speaker 1: and not Jacoby for said, you know, because what's the
Speaker 1: drop all like? And that's what I want to touch
Speaker 1: on in Seattle Pittsburgh? Can we I won't take that
Speaker 1: time now, but let's touch on that Sunday night game
Speaker 1: before we go, even for twenty seconds, because that's such
Speaker 1: a big line move from switching favorites over the quarterback spot.
Speaker 1: But to me, it doesn't matter who's the quarterback in
Speaker 1: this situation because neither of them are elite, so the
Speaker 1: drop off isn't all that significant. You're not going from
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers to a number three, You're going from a
Speaker 1: number three to a number three? Like where is the
Speaker 1: drop all? So to me, like that, all that is noise,
Speaker 1: none of its signal for me to run and and
Speaker 1: back Miami and fade Jacksonville again. I I just it's
Speaker 1: the kind of bet where it just doesn't make sense
Speaker 1: to me. Even if Miami goes out there and wins
Speaker 1: by three touchdowns, there's nothing in the metrics that convinced
Speaker 1: me that Miami should be favored again even though it's Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: especially through a key number of three. To me, that's ridiculous,
Speaker 1: Like we know how important three is, and for Miami
Speaker 1: to be above that now with three and a half's
Speaker 1: hanging out there makes no sense. I also bet the
Speaker 1: game over again, two bad teams. You gotta look at
Speaker 1: the over. You're gonna give all points. It takes a
Speaker 1: lot more effort. We've gone up there over and had
Speaker 1: a million times. No reason to revisit it, um, but
Speaker 1: the reason the Jacks might actually the Jags might actually
Speaker 1: make it from fourth and goal at the half yard
Speaker 1: line one of these days to exactly. And it's something
Speaker 1: the week and I didn't use it as a bet
Speaker 1: because I bet over forty five and a half forty six,
Speaker 1: and I think it's up to like forty seven forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half. But you just still get three
Speaker 1: and a half minus one twenty right now in Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: and I think that three and a half's gonna be
Speaker 1: even money by Sunday. For some reason, I think vetters
Speaker 1: are gonna bet Miami. I mean, I don't know why, um,
Speaker 1: but I like the Jacksonville side. Miami uh last week
Speaker 1: snapping their streak of twenty six straight games with a takeaway.
Speaker 1: Jacksonville the second team in NFL history to lose twenty
Speaker 1: straight Tampa Bay in seventies seventies seven. Ace, do you
Speaker 1: have a play on the Sunday night game? I know
Speaker 1: you love Pete carroll Is as a game planner, one
Speaker 1: of the great coaches of Here's what I wanted to
Speaker 1: touch on that I've now lived here long enough, been
Speaker 1: betting long enough. Mike and Gil knows this. I've lived
Speaker 1: through the outliers. I've lived through bating the narrative and
Speaker 1: the old school me would have sat back and said,
Speaker 1: let them bet up Pittsburgh, and I'm gonna go in
Speaker 1: and take the best of it with Seattle because the public,
Speaker 1: the public, the squares are gonna overreact and think he's
Speaker 1: worth more to betting line than he is. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna get the best of it. I'm gonna have a
Speaker 1: ticket in my pocket that's two or three points better
Speaker 1: because they're stupid and I'm smart. Here's what I found
Speaker 1: out that I'm not as smart as I thought I was,
Speaker 1: because over the last two decades or so betting, I've
Speaker 1: seen outliers on teams that the drop off is that significant.
Speaker 1: I've seen Aaron Rodgers do it in Green Bay, where
Speaker 1: we thought he was worth five points, than six points,
Speaker 1: than eight points, and the books found out he was
Speaker 1: worth a lot more to his team than we ultimately thought.
Speaker 1: And I saw that happen and they continued to cover
Speaker 1: spreads um and I think it's one of those situations
Speaker 1: where you just have certain players that really are worth
Speaker 1: more to the betting line than even reason in metrics
Speaker 1: makes us. I'll arguably conclude they are, because again, we
Speaker 1: all know nobody's work should be worth more than a
Speaker 1: touchdown to a betting line. We know, no non quarterback
Speaker 1: is when your backup. Though when knows the backup sometimes
Speaker 1: thank you, thank you. And even though even though the
Speaker 1: qb R right now of Russell Wilson isn't off the charts,
Speaker 1: he's still so much better and just such a big
Speaker 1: part of this team that I don't it's it's so
Speaker 1: difficult to quantify in points what he's worth. That's the problem.
Speaker 1: That's why the old man, I'd have been all lover
Speaker 1: the Seattle side. I'd have sat back in bet Seattle
Speaker 1: and phone I had the best of it. Like I said,
Speaker 1: I've been here long enough not to get trick rolled,
Speaker 1: and I've been here long enough not to sit there
Speaker 1: and take the five. I'm getting the best of it
Speaker 1: because Russell Wilson ain't worked seven points to the betting line.
Speaker 1: He ain't worked seven points that the betting line. He's
Speaker 1: probably worked more than seven points that a betting line,
Speaker 1: especially and otherwise I'm passing. It's Pittsburgh or pass, because
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to be the smartest guy in the
Speaker 1: room anymore, especially when it's around it when it's a
Speaker 1: small number. As well, the numbers are even worth more.
Speaker 1: But the one thing that's not in the line right
Speaker 1: now is that I'm going to the game in the
Speaker 1: club seats, and and I don't rather vociferous, and you
Speaker 1: know when a guy as loud as me is the
Speaker 1: service announcement that that's like, Well, once I make my
Speaker 1: in game bet, you know, probably early second quarter, I
Speaker 1: will tweet it out and then you realize that's worth
Speaker 1: at least to happen. Let me jump in here because
Speaker 1: that and we did not plan this. That is my
Speaker 1: third bet. I'm on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points.
Speaker 1: So much of what you said, Ace, I don't need
Speaker 1: to repeat. I love the point you're making about how
Speaker 1: you think differently. Now it is Geno Smith Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: targeted for a Week ten return for the Seahawks. I
Speaker 1: have said many times on a Numbers game, if not
Speaker 1: on this podcast, I think I didn't say it on
Speaker 1: this pot, but on the Numbers game rather where I said,
Speaker 1: I don't know when the day is coming when when
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson can't put on his cape and save Pete
Speaker 1: Carroll from his own devices, whether it's by injury, whether
Speaker 1: it's by age, whatever, it is, and it happened that
Speaker 1: when that day comes, the Sea Hawks are gonna fall
Speaker 1: off a cliff. And Gino Smith was was great in relief.
Speaker 1: He was really good. He was the other night. We
Speaker 1: have to give him credit for that. But even big Ben,
Speaker 1: who did get the ball out there for two or
Speaker 1: fifty three yards is last week. Naji was great. Two
Speaker 1: on the ground, Claypool uh six excuse me, five for
Speaker 1: one thirty and a touchdown, Deante Johnson two for seventy
Speaker 1: two touchdown. I just think even Ben big Ben in
Speaker 1: that offense is going to be able to cover this
Speaker 1: because I think that Seattle defense ultimately is going to
Speaker 1: be on the field a lot because Gino is gonna
Speaker 1: have a lot of short drives, a lot of three
Speaker 1: and outs as good as he played the other night.
Speaker 1: I will take Pittsburgh as my number three pick. But
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll's a defensive mastermind, mastermind, mastermind, You're number three.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Chargers Ravens over fifty two on this
Speaker 1: Ravens defense is not good. We said Momby either good
Speaker 1: because Denver didn't score against him, but that was Petty
Speaker 1: was out in the second half of that game, as well,
Speaker 1: I don't think the Targers will get stopped too many
Speaker 1: times in this game. Um, and I'd like to see
Speaker 1: Baltimore get behind and Lamar have to throw the ball
Speaker 1: around the field. That will be good for for the
Speaker 1: total as well. I think this Charger team is legitimate,
Speaker 1: and we'll find out going on the road, going east,
Speaker 1: playing outdoors, playing on grass if they are. But I
Speaker 1: really do believe they are. And I think the Chargers
Speaker 1: put up thirty five or more themselves. Chargers twenty six
Speaker 1: fourth quarter points last week, fourth two at their own,
Speaker 1: down fourteen with ten thirty four left of the third quarter.
Speaker 1: But Brandon Staylors like, I don't care if we lose
Speaker 1: by a hundred, We're going for it. I love that
Speaker 1: nine yard game. Um. They matriculate the ball downfield, then
Speaker 1: they go for two to cut it from eight to six.
Speaker 1: And then they had a later one where they eschewed
Speaker 1: the field goal and they're like, no, we're going for
Speaker 1: it again, down four team and they got it done. Um,
Speaker 1: one of these days they won't convert one of those fours.
Speaker 1: But so far, so awesome. Uh, Todd, your last one,
Speaker 1: My last one is gonna be the Cincinnati Bengals game
Speaker 1: versus Detroit. I'm going under forty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: I think the Bengals are a sneak decent football team.
Speaker 1: On defense, I've seen them play. They played green Bay
Speaker 1: played very well defensively last week. Hung in the game, Uh, Pittsburgh,
Speaker 1: they shut down. They shut down the Bears with it.
Speaker 1: Who cares everyone shuts down the Bears. They played decently against.
Speaker 1: I just think they're the kind of team. They have
Speaker 1: a pretty decent defense. Detroit has done nothing to show
Speaker 1: me offensively that they can be great except between the twenties.
Speaker 1: When you get inside the twenties, all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: Detroit can't get the ball in the end zone. You know,
Speaker 1: unless it's the last minute of the game. The Detroit
Speaker 1: really you know, golf is killing them inside the red zone. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, seventeen against Minnesota, four d against the Bears,
Speaker 1: seventy against Baltimore, seventeen against green Bay. Throwout the San
Speaker 1: Francisco game because they got all those touchdowns late Detroit,
Speaker 1: and they're also running the ball, and they got that
Speaker 1: that coach with our we're gonna run the football, yeah,
Speaker 1: because we're gonna we're gonna be tough. We're gonna eat
Speaker 1: change dollars for lunch and we're gonna run the football.
Speaker 1: So Lions are gonna run the ball. I think Cincinnati
Speaker 1: is a sneaky decent defensive team. And to me, this
Speaker 1: game could be twenty and I get even even I
Speaker 1: still get under forty seven and a half. So I
Speaker 1: just think Cincinnati's a little bit better on defense and
Speaker 1: people realize and Detroit's really not that good on offense.
Speaker 1: Uh So I'll go under the forty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: It's stuff we were trying to do. Our power rankings
Speaker 1: are top ten power rankings the other day, both on
Speaker 1: prime time and on a n G. And once you
Speaker 1: get past eleven, you're like it's a cliff and you're like,
Speaker 1: who's twelve Cincinnati? Like maybe because you can't really come
Speaker 1: up with it. Carolina Cincinnati one of those kind of teams. Alright,
Speaker 1: Teasers of the week because Mike's gotta go do uh
Speaker 1: odds on with the mall at circle. Mike, he wants
Speaker 1: me to go before him on teasers because he thinks
Speaker 1: that down somehow gaming him Bucks and l A Chargers.
Speaker 1: I think the l A Chargers are not going to
Speaker 1: lose by more than nine, give me l a Chargers
Speaker 1: plus nine, give me bucks minus a half. Do you
Speaker 1: want me to jump in alight? He took one of months.
Speaker 1: I'm on the Chiefs and the Chargers as mine. Cheeps
Speaker 1: and Chargers Chargers not at all. We don't want to
Speaker 1: get tweets from people. It's not a Stanford won well
Speaker 1: either is the Chiefs, by the way, but Chiefs Chargers
Speaker 1: for me. Che's the Chiefs down to basically beat Washington Chargers.
Speaker 1: Give me nine points to work with against Baltimore Ace
Speaker 1: Ace before you go ahead, And I'm glad you've cleared
Speaker 1: that up because the wrong teaser has been absolutely crushing
Speaker 1: at this season. Yes, if you just wait in and
Speaker 1: pick those apart um, you've done a lot of damage
Speaker 1: in this week. Even with the lines moving, there's none
Speaker 1: have opened up. I mean, the only one you could
Speaker 1: possibly categorize right now would be the Chargers the Baltimore
Speaker 1: at two and a half taking the Chargers up the
Speaker 1: eight and a half. But there really isn't no reason
Speaker 1: to tease again. I'm a true believer of just trust
Speaker 1: the math and if you have something that's plus c V,
Speaker 1: don't reinvent the wheel. Like you know, if you tease
Speaker 1: through three and seven, that's where you're getting the vout.
Speaker 1: Knew if the opportunity isn't there, why teeth just lay
Speaker 1: the minus one ten. You're not increasing your odds by
Speaker 1: taking the six. The math is already been done by
Speaker 1: guys smarter than all of us, like the quantz figured
Speaker 1: that ship out that if you tease through these numbers,
Speaker 1: it's worth doing it. If you don't, don't, don't um.
Speaker 1: But for action, and because we're grading, I'm gonna I
Speaker 1: have a gamble in me like everybody else. I'm not
Speaker 1: in this industry by accident. Um. So I'm gonna touss
Speaker 1: in my teaser and I'm and this is a way
Speaker 1: to share another pick Kansas City because I laid the
Speaker 1: six and a half, so why not take them down
Speaker 1: the minus a half? And uh, I'm gonna have you
Speaker 1: already know I like Buffalo. That's too easy, So let's
Speaker 1: add Pittsburgh. Let's let's confirm that Pittsburgh already I'm getting mney. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'll take Pittsburgh plus a point plus a half. Again,
Speaker 1: these aren't plus TV by any stretch of the imagination,
Speaker 1: but it's a lot of fun in its action. As
Speaker 1: long as you know that when you walk through the window,
Speaker 1: that's there's nothing wrong with placing it. But if you're
Speaker 1: investing that way, then you've got to take a step back, man,
Speaker 1: and actually, like I think of what you're doing, I
Speaker 1: couldn't help you're actually getting I could have used Pittsburgh too,
Speaker 1: but somehow I didn't conclude it in my teaser. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna use because I have to go oppo Todd to
Speaker 1: try to gain ground. Um, you're also chasing me, my friends,
Speaker 1: it's not But he's the guy. He's not he's not
Speaker 1: worried about you, and I'm the guy. I'm honestly not worried.
Speaker 1: I'm not really worried about you. I'm I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: Bucks Chiefs for mine to go opposite Todd, Um or
Speaker 1: not opposite, but use one, you know, Ace. I received
Speaker 1: a telegram from a former listener and he said, ask
Speaker 1: Ace if he has that Patrick Mahomes member size update.
Speaker 1: Actually you'ing hanging on it in a while a while,
Speaker 1: you know, Antully, they hung on it for so long
Speaker 1: he's got a lot to stare Um. But it's been
Speaker 1: a while since they pulled on it for him unfortunately. Alright,
Speaker 1: Final two questions, Final two questions, Ace, you remember these,
Speaker 1: Which of the big favorites is the most likely to
Speaker 1: lose outright? In your opinion? We usually do this at
Speaker 1: six and a half and and uh and higher. Um,
Speaker 1: here are your candidates this week of the possible ones
Speaker 1: to lose. Tampa Bay minus six and a half or
Speaker 1: minus seven at Philadelphia that is tonight on Thursday night.
Speaker 1: Kansas City minus six and a half on the road
Speaker 1: at Washington, Indianapolis minus ten, minus nine and a half
Speaker 1: at home against Houston Rams ten point favorites on the
Speaker 1: road against the Giants. Those are the candidates. Who's the
Speaker 1: most likely to lose outright? Ace? Oh, you made this
Speaker 1: so easy for me. I'm already sprinkling and just waiting
Speaker 1: for see if it gets to seven and I had
Speaker 1: give me Philipe, help ya give me an Eagles at
Speaker 1: plus money. That's a nice money line. Um, the last
Speaker 1: I saw plus two fifty plus two fifty five not bad.
Speaker 1: That's a winnable game. I am also taking Philadelphia. I
Speaker 1: believe Tampa Bay is the most likely to lose outright
Speaker 1: of those groups teams. Mikey, there there's only three, right,
Speaker 1: there's chiefs. You conclude the Chiefs said the Chiefs. Okay,
Speaker 1: I gotta pay attention, he said, cold. What about you, Todd?
Speaker 1: I think the Colts can lose too. I'm with Mikey
Speaker 1: on that one. I mean, the Colts are nothing. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, they played really well. Would you say you're
Speaker 1: right there? In four team It's not like they're turning
Speaker 1: at all. And they and they beat the Dolphins, and
Speaker 1: I've got them in Survivors and I've got him in
Speaker 1: the Survivors. So you know it's gonna be tight. We
Speaker 1: will be We'll have a chance with We'll have a
Speaker 1: chance with the Texas of course. Alright, final question, Uh,
Speaker 1: we have bys this week, by the way, four teams
Speaker 1: are in by so we do have fourteen games. Let's
Speaker 1: say you lived in a bizarro world where you were
Speaker 1: forced to bet all of them, but one thirteen of
Speaker 1: the four teen you must make a play on, but
Speaker 1: one you want no part of. On the side whatsoever? Ace,
Speaker 1: what is the game you want no part of? Oh?
Speaker 1: I told you I liked this board, so I it's
Speaker 1: difficult to call him out, um, but honestly, it probably
Speaker 1: would be the Chargers Ravens game. Um, that's more one.
Speaker 1: I want to see both these teams play this game
Speaker 1: than getting bobbed in it. It's around that key number
Speaker 1: of three. Um. Again, it's just where I had it waited.
Speaker 1: It's it's right on the number. I just don't see
Speaker 1: much value either way. Maybe if you could late two
Speaker 1: and a half or get three and a half, you
Speaker 1: could say you have a good ticket in your pocket. Um,
Speaker 1: But it's just one of those stay away from me.
Speaker 1: I mean in the game. I like Baltimore, but again
Speaker 1: not I wouldn't bet it Todd the Raiders game. I
Speaker 1: don't want any part of the rage. That's fine. I mean,
Speaker 1: what what in the world, What in the world is
Speaker 1: going on over there? I mean, you know, I know
Speaker 1: there's emails. I mean some emails. I just came to
Speaker 1: light about Mike Palm and that's why I want to
Speaker 1: try to get him knocked off odds On or the nuts.
Speaker 1: I think he should be thrown out of their and
Speaker 1: circle as the operations manager because he called me a
Speaker 1: fat jew one time and h no, I'm just kidding.
Speaker 1: He would never call me that. But uh, I don't
Speaker 1: know what's going on in that raiders offer room. Who
Speaker 1: knows any more? But if you're not fat anymore, oh yeah,
Speaker 1: anymore exactly. And you know what I did. I did
Speaker 1: the mask. I should have lost forty three pounds of
Speaker 1: this summer playing tennis, but instead of gained one because
Speaker 1: I've eat too many calories even though I've been playing
Speaker 1: tennis every day. I'm a big fat causer and I've
Speaker 1: gone from two six times to to seventy. Very bad
Speaker 1: job by me. That's all right, You're better than you
Speaker 1: were were also you and I also Raiders Denver part
Speaker 1: of who knows knows what's gonna happen. We gotta run
Speaker 1: because Mike He's got a show to do. Ace love
Speaker 1: you man great. Thanks for having me by big point
Speaker 1: before it's too late. Follow Faid. I hope you make
Speaker 1: money Thanase because I want to talk shit if my
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