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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to play

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Speaker 1: short bets as me Joey P joe P Zapia and

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Speaker 1: this is BP NFL Scott Bogmin and I are going

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Speaker 1: to go through the Thursday night football game and give

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Speaker 1: you some props and touchdown calls and SGP and of

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Speaker 1: course we want you to subscribe to the channel here

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Speaker 1: drop your comments below where it's like this video. You've

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Speaker 1: got lots of cool stuff here going on on the channel.

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Speaker 1: Scott Bogman, we get Lamar Jackson returning for this game.

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Speaker 1: That's big news here. Lamar's missed the last few weeks.

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Speaker 1: We thought we might get it. Last week we did not,

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Speaker 1: but the Ravens still got to win and the Miami

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Speaker 1: Dolphins came out with a very surprising win. I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people gave them a shot last week.

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Speaker 1: So this game is gonna be in Miami. We're getting

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Speaker 1: Lamar back, which is gonna make this more watchable for

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Speaker 1: sure in terms of entertainment value, but it's also going

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Speaker 1: to have a huge impact potentially depending on how healthy

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Speaker 1: he really is on the rest of this Ravens offense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I you know, picking the props and everything else. Like,

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Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna leave Lamar alone because I don't

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Speaker 2: know how healthy he is. Clearly the Ravens have had issues,

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Speaker 2: you know, even if they are honest mistakes as they've said,

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Speaker 2: with accurate reporting on their injury report.

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Speaker 3: So I know he's gonna play.

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Speaker 2: Am I gonna bet money on him doing anything in particular?

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Speaker 3: No, I will not.

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Speaker 1: No, I was staying away from Lamar as well. It

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Speaker 1: would not surprise me if he went over his rushing props.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't surprise me if you went under as well. So

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Speaker 1: because of those different outcomes, and look, it's not a

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Speaker 1: short week for him. He hasn't played for a week,

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Speaker 1: so it's arm as he's healthy, he's good to go.

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Speaker 1: But again, betting on him in that first game back,

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Speaker 1: I think is a little trickier. But there are some

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Speaker 1: things that I'm hot on, and I know Bogman is

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Speaker 1: as well. Before we get to those many bets, don't

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Speaker 1: leave review of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe to

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Speaker 1: our social media channels at betting Pros on X, on

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Speaker 1: go sign up for the contest. All right, let's look

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Speaker 1: at the Betting Pros consensus line here of the tail

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Speaker 1: of the tape as it were between these two teams,

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Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens two and five the Miami Dolphins two

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Speaker 1: and six. Who would have thought that this would be

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Speaker 1: the record of the Baltimore Ravens at this stage in

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Speaker 1: the game. Certainly not me. They were Hey, well look

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Speaker 1: they were my Super Bowl pick this year, so completely unraveled.

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Speaker 1: But what are you gonna do? My Patriots are in

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Speaker 1: first place. I can't complain.

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Speaker 2: So Baltimon the AFC North is scary show. It is

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Speaker 2: any of time for Baltimore to win this division. There

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Speaker 2: is but schedule around the stretch here two for them.

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Speaker 1: There is but Pittsburgh certainly, I mean, every opportunity to

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Speaker 1: pull away, and they're just not taking it either.

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Speaker 3: Just giving up four hundred yards a game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not great, not great, very expensive defense. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the Ravens. Is seven and a half

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Speaker 1: here on the road, plus seven and a half here

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Speaker 1: for Miami. That is the consensus line to get even money.

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Speaker 1: There by the way, on that Miami version, if you're

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Speaker 1: getting over forty nine, was the over under fifty one

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Speaker 1: and a half on the under plus three fifty for Miami.

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Speaker 1: Upset bogs For me again, I don't love this line.

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Speaker 1: Lots of let's see how Lamar really is and what's

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Speaker 1: going on here. I'm assuming help and that little bit

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Speaker 1: of assumption here to me. If he's going and he's

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Speaker 1: full go, then I'm taking the over in this game

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Speaker 1: of the forty nine because I've seen Miami put up

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Speaker 1: points this year. Miami can find a way even without

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill these last few weeks to put up some points.

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Speaker 1: So I think forty nine is reasonable for me. If

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Speaker 1: this was in the fifties, like fifty three and a half,

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Speaker 1: I might be a little shy on that one, But that,

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Speaker 1: to me is my approach to this one. What's yours?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the correct approach. I think in

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Speaker 2: any of these Thursday night games, I'm just gonna I'm

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Speaker 2: done taking favorites. I'm just gonna take points every single week.

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Speaker 2: So give me Miami plus seven and a half the hook.

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Speaker 2: I love there for them.

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Speaker 3: They are at home as well. Obviously this Lamar's first

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Speaker 3: came back after a couple of weeks. We don't know.

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Speaker 2: I don't expect any rust. I'm with you, I'd assume health.

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Speaker 2: So I think the safest bet, like you said, is

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Speaker 2: the over. You know, Miami moved the ball well last week,

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Speaker 2: four touchdowns for Tua, and I think Baltimore's gonna be

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Speaker 2: able to do it if Lamar is healthy. And I

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Speaker 2: assume you don't put this guy out here in a

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Speaker 2: season like this unless he's one hundred percent. So I'm

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Speaker 2: assuming he's one hundred percent. But you know what happens

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Speaker 2: when you assume Joe this is true.

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Speaker 1: And I can't tell if the Ravens defense played better

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Speaker 1: last week or if Caleb Williams just played that poorly.

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Speaker 1: I'm still trying to figure out which is which may

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Speaker 1: be a bit of both. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: But he'll call me a little calm be but I

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Speaker 3: think it's will call me.

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Speaker 1: I think it is too. But that's another reason why

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Speaker 1: I like the overhere that Ravens defense has not been

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Speaker 1: great this year. All right, before we get to the

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, let's take

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Speaker 1: a look at the props. Last week zero on the

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Speaker 1: SGPS for me Boo Sadness, but Bogs was two and

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Speaker 1: three on Monday Night football. Overall in the year, just

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Speaker 1: a shy under five hundred, but we'll get there by

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Speaker 1: the end of the year. It's only week nine.

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Speaker 2: And that Kareem Hunt playing hosts me on my Pacheco call.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, well by one half a carria over twelve

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Speaker 2: and as.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Pacheco one was brutal. Yeah yeah, that was

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Speaker 1: hey man, I got a couple of those this year too.

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Speaker 1: But let's start with Derek Henry. You know the look

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Speaker 1: here for him, it's a high number ninety and a half. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so you're not getting any any pleasantries here. Is it

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Speaker 1: too high for this first game with Lamar Turner turning

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Speaker 1: or you think it's now balls to the wall Derrick

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Speaker 1: Henry because now you have to deal with both of

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Speaker 1: those guys rushing around.

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Speaker 2: What has been the last couple of weeks as well,

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Speaker 2: twenty one carries, twenty four carries, So I think Baltimore

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Speaker 2: is getting back to more. We know Derrick Henry fumbled

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Speaker 2: in the beginning of the season, He's still Derek Henry.

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Speaker 3: Let's give him the ball a whole lot here.

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Speaker 2: And we've seen a recent history of teams just leaning

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Speaker 2: on these running backs during Thursday Night football. Barkley had

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Speaker 2: eighteen carries for sixty two and two Jacob's twenty three,

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Speaker 2: Cook nineteen, Walker nineteen, McCaffrey twenty two, Skataboo nineteen. I

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Speaker 2: think the only running back under fifteen carries was Chase Brown,

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Speaker 2: and he had eleven for one hundred and eight. Even

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Speaker 2: last week, Fidell had twenty three carries. So we're seeing

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Speaker 2: a lot of these offenses, specifically from winning teams, rely

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Speaker 2: on their running backs a lot on Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a very good plan to give the

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Speaker 2: ball to Derrick Henry a bunch against the twenty six

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Speaker 2: run rushing defense in the league. And with Lamar being,

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Speaker 2: you know, coming off of a hamstring thing, with you know,

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Speaker 2: a lot of season left, maybe you want to run

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Speaker 2: him a little bit less. So I just think that

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Speaker 2: Derrick Henry is in line for a couple more carries.

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Speaker 2: I think he goes over twenty in this game as well.

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Speaker 2: That numbers dicey. I don't want to rely on it

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Speaker 2: because if they do get to Whoop in Miami, I

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Speaker 2: think he'll see a lot of Justice Hill late. But

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Speaker 2: if they are in that position, it's probably because Dereck

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Speaker 2: Henry is run rough shot all over this Miami defense.

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Speaker 2: So give me Derrick Henry over ninety and a half.

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Speaker 2: I just think he gets the rock a whole lot

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Speaker 2: in this game.

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Speaker 1: Two a tongue iolo is number for passing yards is

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Speaker 1: two sixteen and a half. Now, He's only gone over

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Speaker 1: this number twice in Week two against New England, Week

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Speaker 1: five against Carolina. Why will he go over it again

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Speaker 1: tonight on Thursday Football?

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Speaker 2: Because Baltimore is twenty eighth in passing yards allowed per

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Speaker 2: game too much better? Last week against Atlanta, hit this

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Speaker 2: twice against New England and Carolina, but the game script

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Speaker 2: should have them passing from behind in like Chicago last week.

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Speaker 2: Caleb put up two eighty five, Mahomes put up two

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Speaker 2: to seventy on them, Stroud put up two forty four.

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Speaker 2: You know, Josh Allen obviously had the almost four hundred

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Speaker 2: yard game. And then you do have some lower totals

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Speaker 2: in here from quarterbacks like this was Flacco when he

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Speaker 2: was still in the Browns and they couldn't do anything

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Speaker 2: goff because they won that game going away Stafford. They

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Speaker 2: won that game seventeen to three, right, So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: just think that Tua can go over this. Baltimore does

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Speaker 2: give up some passing yards if you attack through the air,

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Speaker 2: and I think they're going to have to because I

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Speaker 2: think they're going to be down late.

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Speaker 1: Now. If you're correlating the over on the passing yards, well,

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Speaker 1: somebody's going to be on the side of that. So

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Speaker 1: maybe it's eighth Han, maybe it's Waddle for me. I

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Speaker 1: gotta say, I like Malik Washington potentially too. Twenty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half is that number. He's gone over that

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Speaker 1: in the last two games, and I think that low

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Speaker 1: total is how I'm approaching this one, but you think

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Speaker 1: Jalen Wattle can be that guy, which is understandable. He's

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Speaker 1: the main target in this offense. The number sixty three

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Speaker 1: and a half minus one fifteen. So we're taking the

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Speaker 1: over here on this one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, over sixty three and a half because you know

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Speaker 2: tyree Quin's out of Week four. They've played four games

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Speaker 2: since then, and in three of them, Waddle has had

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Speaker 2: at least ninety five yards. The only game that he

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Speaker 2: did not have that total in was that weather game

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Speaker 2: against Cleveland and Cleveland when it was windy and weird.

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Speaker 2: So but also number ones against Baltimore have been pretty good.

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Speaker 2: We saw Rome last week seven for one fourteen, Collins

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Speaker 2: had a touchdown, Worthy had eighty three yards, and Mona

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Speaker 2: had seventy seven yards and a touchdown that was mainly

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Speaker 2: in the first half. Judy this loser had one of

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Speaker 2: his two fifty yard games against Baltimore, and Shakir had

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Speaker 2: sixty four. Coleman had one hundred and twelve against the secondary,

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Speaker 2: the secondary has been fairly weak for Baltimore, so I

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Speaker 2: think Jaylen Waddle can put up this total. He's getting

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Speaker 2: a lot of targets and he's relied on since Tyreek

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Speaker 2: quent Down.

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Speaker 1: Now Devon ah Chan his number four receptions is thirty

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Speaker 1: two and a half a receiving yards, I should say,

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Speaker 1: so he's only gone over this once actually against again

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Speaker 1: New England, that big output there that they had on

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Speaker 1: that day. But it's been under every single week in

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Speaker 1: this thirty two and a half. So why does that

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Speaker 1: trend change? Is it just again back to the Baltimore

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Speaker 1: Ravens offense giving up so many passing ours this year.

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Speaker 2: I think it's the game script too, right, Like I

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Speaker 2: do think you're gonna need to be passing and put

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Speaker 2: up points. I think Baltimore is gonna be able to

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Speaker 2: score decent amount. This is why you know, you and

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Speaker 2: I both like the over in this game. So I

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Speaker 2: think the game script for Miami is going to be pass, pass, pass,

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Speaker 2: and to his favorite thing is to pass short. So

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Speaker 2: I do think that a chant. You know, defenses have

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Speaker 2: done a better job king and on him specifically in

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Speaker 2: the past game this season, but Baltimore's twenty fifth and

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Speaker 2: receiving yards per game allowed to running backs and then

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Speaker 2: they're all allowing over this total thirty seven point four.

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Speaker 3: Olie Gordon not catching too many passes.

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Speaker 2: He did catch a passing touchdown last week, but I

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Speaker 2: think a Chan is going to be the guy here.

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Speaker 2: And this is one where you know, he slips one

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Speaker 2: tackle and obviously he can go a long way and

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Speaker 2: he's performed pretty well on Thursday nights historically, So LI

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Speaker 2: like a Chan in this.

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Speaker 1: Spot, all right. I mentioned the low number on the

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Speaker 1: league Washington that I like. There's a low number on

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Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins that you like at sixteen and a half

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Speaker 1: receiving yards and you think this could be over as well.

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Speaker 2: One catch is a dot this year is seventeen yards.

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Speaker 2: Lamar is back. Lamar likes chucking those long ones every

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Speaker 2: once in a while, and DeAndre Hopkins was on the

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Speaker 2: receiving end of a couple of those early this year.

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Speaker 2: I had a couple more targets the last few games

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Speaker 2: as well, so you know, he's like a thirty five

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Speaker 2: to forty percent snap rate, but we just need one

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Speaker 2: catch here.

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Speaker 3: That's why I like these.

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Speaker 2: And I know some people don't like him because you know,

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Speaker 2: you all, you might have to wait until the fourth

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Speaker 2: quarter to get this catch, But I like, I like

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Speaker 2: the low totals. Malik I was debating between this one

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Speaker 2: and Malik Washington. Really, but I was like, I don't

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Speaker 2: think I want three pass catches from Miami on my see.

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Speaker 1: I might change him out for h And that's what

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Speaker 1: I like doing because Han really hasn't, like I said,

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Speaker 1: hasn't been his game as much this year, which I

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Speaker 1: kind of you know, there's a lot.

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Speaker 2: I think two is just getting his confidence back. It

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Speaker 2: has been a in Miami. They really looked out on

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Speaker 2: offense last week twenty ninety six. They possessed the ball

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Speaker 2: for thirty seven minutes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, for everybody talking trash about them calling out people,

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Speaker 1: maybe they're calling out worked. I mean maybe if the

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Speaker 1: accountability does matter after the end of the day. You know,

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Speaker 1: wasn't the right way to do it. We could debate that,

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Speaker 1: but sure can argue with the results last week it

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Speaker 1: was a workable way.

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Speaker 3: We know that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right. Remember prop bet cheat sheets there too.

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Speaker 1: If you're looking for more props for Thursday night or

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Speaker 1: any of the games this weekend, go to bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash props, or just go download the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: app and look at the prop bet cheat sheet to

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Speaker 1: find the very best value ranked upon projections against the

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Speaker 1: spreads there and of course what the best possible book

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Speaker 1: is to bet them. And of course you got passing, rushing, receiving,

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Speaker 1: stack categories. They're all there for you. Every game's there,

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Speaker 1: every player is there, So go check it out right now,

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Speaker 1: that's the prop bet cheat sheet, one of our favorite

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00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,960
Speaker 1: tools over on Betting Pros. All right, let's get to

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Speaker 1: the SG JOEYP of the day. I'd like to did

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Speaker 1: another one. I'd like to get back on the track here.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna make this a little duo one, a little

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Speaker 1: simple one once again. Derrick Henry heavy in the minus

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Speaker 1: to score a touchdown. We all know that. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go here, cut in half like I always do

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Speaker 1: first half of the game. Anytime touchdown score for Derek Henry,

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Speaker 1: you get to plus one fifteen, I'm gonna take that

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Speaker 1: along with the over for Zay Flowers sixty eight and

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Speaker 1: a half receiving yards. He's gone over this three of

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Speaker 1: the four games he played with Lamar this year. He

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Speaker 1: is the main target. He is the main guy there.

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Speaker 1: So I feel very good about Lamar being back with

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Speaker 1: Zay Flowers going over this number against that Miami defense

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Speaker 1: that gets you to plus two eighty nine. That's not

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Speaker 1: a bad day's work. Almost three to one. Just two bets,

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Speaker 1: and hopefully we get a big game from Flowers and

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Speaker 1: a touchdown early so we don't have to worry too

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Speaker 1: much about this one. But that's the SG joeyp for

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football, and of course everybody kind of giving

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Speaker 1: away the goat here, it's gonna be Derek Henry for me.

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Speaker 1: Anytime touchdown score in the first half plus one to fifteen,

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Speaker 1: that's my touchdown call. That's the best value there. What's

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Speaker 1: your favorite touchdown call for Thursday Night Football?

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Speaker 2: Bocks, I think it's Lamar because he's plus one fifty five,

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Speaker 2: so I can get one and a half if Lamar scores.

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Speaker 2: I think that's pretty good. He's actually a lot of

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Speaker 2: numbers that I like in this game. I like that,

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Speaker 2: you know, the number for Derrick Henry is terrible anywhere

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Speaker 2: you have it unless you do it like you did

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Speaker 2: with the first half. So I really like the way

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Speaker 2: that you assigned that there, Joe. But I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: Charlie Kohler has scored a couple of times. He's plus

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Speaker 2: seven hundred. I think that Alie was in here with

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Speaker 2: a good number plus two seventy five, and he scored

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Speaker 2: last week as well, Tua's plus seventeen fifty. I know

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Speaker 2: he doesn't typically do that, but there's.

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Speaker 1: A long number.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of long shots, and we like the over.

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Speaker 2: So somebody weird is going to score, right, I think

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Speaker 2: that's probably gonna happen. So it's still Lamar though you

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Speaker 2: get one and a half for your for Lamar.

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Speaker 3: I think he can score, oh absolutely.

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Speaker 1: You know, he hasn't been doing a lot of that

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Speaker 1: since Derrick Henry came to town. That's the one thing

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Speaker 1: that's the only thing that I shy away from, especially

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Speaker 1: first came back from the injury. That's why I like

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Speaker 1: the Henry one.

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Speaker 3: So much, that one naked leg.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, look and you're right, and he goes in untouched

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Speaker 1: and that's perfectly fine. And look at your probably And

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Speaker 1: if you're looking again for more help with SGPS, the

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Speaker 1: same game Parlay tool is available. Just like the Betting

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00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 1: Pros tool has the prop betcheet sheet on it as well.

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00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,120
Speaker 1: You can find high value combinations, how they correlate together,

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00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,440
Speaker 1: bet them together at the SGP tool or Bettingpros dot Com.

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00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 1: Slash Parlay go check that out as well, and that'll

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Speaker 1: do it for us here. So but the story of

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Speaker 1: the game, it goes on for Scott Bog But I'm

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Speaker 1: Joey p Enjoy your Thursday night football, everybody.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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