WEBVTT - The Leaked Phone Call that Plunged Thailand Into Crisis

0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:07.200
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:13.320
<v Speaker 2>In late May, troops from Thailand and Cambodia exchanged gunfire

0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.360
<v Speaker 2>in a disputed border area, leaving a Cambodian soldier dead

0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:22.160
<v Speaker 2>and relations between the historic rivals at a dangerous inflection point.

0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:27.120
<v Speaker 2>The conflict set off a chain reaction that included border closures,

0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:32.000
<v Speaker 2>threats of retaliation, and finally, a phone call between Thailand's

0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:36.240
<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister Peton Tarn Shinawat and Hun Sen, the former

0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.920
<v Speaker 2>leader of Cambodia who still holds power as president of

0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:43.120
<v Speaker 2>the country's main political party and the father of its

0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:45.440
<v Speaker 2>prime minister. Can you hear me.

0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:50.080
<v Speaker 3>Well as you can hear in the phone call, she

0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:51.839
<v Speaker 3>started by calling him uncle.

0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:56.600
<v Speaker 2>Papicha Tanaka Sempipot covers Thailand for Bloomberg out of Bangkok.

0:00:56.920 --> 0:01:00.360
<v Speaker 2>She's known by her Thai nickname Best, She said. Pet

0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:03.200
<v Speaker 2>tannk Taran is the fourth member of the Shinawat family

0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:06.840
<v Speaker 2>to lead Thailand in the last quarter century. Her father,

0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:11.520
<v Speaker 2>former Prime Minister Tosin Shinawat, still holds sway in Thai politics.

0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:14.959
<v Speaker 2>He and Hunsen forged a friendship years ago.

0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:19.280
<v Speaker 1>She started calling him uncle in the call because to her,

0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.760
<v Speaker 1>Hunsen was a family friend, and Hunsen had been their

0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:26.440
<v Speaker 1>time and again for the Shinawat family, providing them refuge

0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:30.000
<v Speaker 1>when they needed. They were so close that Tuksin even

0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:33.080
<v Speaker 1>had a room reserved at Hunsen's house.

0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:37.920
<v Speaker 2>Pet tunk Tarn's differential tone and calling him uncle was

0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:41.199
<v Speaker 2>a tip of the iceberg. During the seventeen minute call,

0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:45.560
<v Speaker 2>she appeared to side with Hunsen on multiple occasions, referring

0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:49.120
<v Speaker 2>to a top Thai military commander as an opponent and

0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:56.000
<v Speaker 2>promising to take care of Hunsen's concerns.

0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:01.680
<v Speaker 1>She sounded critical of the high military, and she characterized

0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:05.040
<v Speaker 1>them as the other side, while putting her and Hun

0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Sent on the same side, and that is probably a.

0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:11.680
<v Speaker 3>Breach in the diplomatic protocols.

0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:14.760
<v Speaker 1>It also reflected that the Thai Army and the Thai

0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:17.480
<v Speaker 1>government were not seeing eye to eye about the conflict,

0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:20.560
<v Speaker 1>which did not inspire confidence in the Thai people.

0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:25.040
<v Speaker 2>A few days after the call, Hunsen posted audio of

0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:30.240
<v Speaker 2>the conversation on Facebook, plunging Petung Tarn's coalition government into crisis.

0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:39.560
<v Speaker 1>By the phone call set off a big and dramatic

0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:43.079
<v Speaker 1>chain of events, pushing the government to the brink of collapse.

0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.400
<v Speaker 1>With the exit of a key coalition party. The strong

0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:49.480
<v Speaker 1>public reaction to the call also set off several protests,

0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:52.600
<v Speaker 1>including a massive one that called for Penalton to resign.

0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:53.960
<v Speaker 3>On June twenty eight.

0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.720
<v Speaker 1>Twenty thousand people came out that day, and that was

0:02:57.760 --> 0:02:59.720
<v Speaker 1>the biggest turnout in a long time.

0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:04.680
<v Speaker 2>Peton Tarn eventually apologized for the phone call and claimed

0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:08.560
<v Speaker 2>that her methods were actually a negotiating tactic, but the

0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:14.320
<v Speaker 2>conversation has left her political future and Thailand's government in limbo.

0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:18.320
<v Speaker 2>In the wake of the protests, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended

0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:23.240
<v Speaker 2>her as Prime Minister, citing alleged ethical misconduct. The court's verdict,

0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.440
<v Speaker 2>which is expected to come later this year, could permanently

0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:31.440
<v Speaker 2>remove her from the job. This spiraling political turmoil might

0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:35.360
<v Speaker 2>all seem very dramatic, but for Thailand, it's a recurring theme.

0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:39.640
<v Speaker 2>The nation has seen about twenty constitutions and roughly a

0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:44.480
<v Speaker 2>dozen coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in nineteen

0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:44.960
<v Speaker 2>thirty two.

0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:50.080
<v Speaker 1>This is really another day in Thai politics, and also

0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:52.920
<v Speaker 1>not the first time you find tax in order. Shinawat

0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:57.440
<v Speaker 1>family at many turning points or crossroads in contemporary Thai history,

0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:00.640
<v Speaker 1>after all disease. The dynasty that has dominated high politics

0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.240
<v Speaker 1>for the past quarters injury, but now people are wondering

0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:05.520
<v Speaker 1>if this is the beginning of the end of their

0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:06.440
<v Speaker 1>dynastic rule.

0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:13.520
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.

0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:16.279
<v Speaker 2>Every week we take you inside some of the world's

0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:20.320
<v Speaker 2>biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and

0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:24.920
<v Speaker 2>businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show,

0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:28.599
<v Speaker 2>what the recent suspension of Thailand's prime minister could mean

0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:32.880
<v Speaker 2>for its battered economy, and after nearly three decades, is

0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:36.920
<v Speaker 2>the Shinawat family's grip on Thai politics finally come into

0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:45.520
<v Speaker 2>an end. Petung Tarn Shinawat is the fourth member of

0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:49.680
<v Speaker 2>the powerful Shinawat clan to lead Thailand. Her family has

0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:53.719
<v Speaker 2>dominated high politics ever since her father Toksin first came

0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:56.359
<v Speaker 2>into power in two thousand and one.

0:04:56.520 --> 0:05:00.800
<v Speaker 1>They absolutely have huge influence over typ You cannot talk

0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:04.880
<v Speaker 1>about Tai politics without mentioning Taxin or his family. Tutxin,

0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:07.960
<v Speaker 1>the main character, was Prime miniserve from two thousand and one,

0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:10.320
<v Speaker 1>for which he served a full term after winning a

0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:13.960
<v Speaker 1>landslide victory, but then his second term in office was

0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:16.320
<v Speaker 1>cut short in two thousand and six when the military

0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:16.919
<v Speaker 1>seized power.

0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:21.320
<v Speaker 2>The generals in charge accused him of corruption and abusive power.

0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:25.279
<v Speaker 2>His party was dissolved and he eventually went into exile.

0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:30.320
<v Speaker 2>But even then, as he faced corruption charges, Toxin continued

0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:34.400
<v Speaker 2>to influence Thai politics through per Thai, his family's political party.

0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:37.440
<v Speaker 1>When people were voting for Pertai, they knew that they

0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:41.080
<v Speaker 1>were essentially voting for a Taxan government without Taxin in

0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.640
<v Speaker 1>the picture. The Chinawats came back to contest the election

0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:48.640
<v Speaker 1>in twenty eleven with the Puts High party under Yin Lak,

0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:52.880
<v Speaker 1>who is Tuxan's sister, but her term was again cut short.

0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:55.800
<v Speaker 1>And now that brings us to the most recent election

0:05:55.960 --> 0:05:59.880
<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty three, which saw Tuxan's daughter Patan Tan

0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.599
<v Speaker 1>rise to power and bring her dynasty back to the

0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:03.560
<v Speaker 1>top political office.

0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:05.440
<v Speaker 3>And that's where we are. Now.

0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:08.600
<v Speaker 2>Why is it that the shino Watts are so popular

0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:11.520
<v Speaker 2>and loved by some in Thailand? Why is it that

0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:15.400
<v Speaker 2>they have maintained their dominance politically for so many years?

0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:18.159
<v Speaker 1>A lot of that had to do with the lasting

0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:22.320
<v Speaker 1>legacy that Taxin left behind when he was Prime Minister.

0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:26.680
<v Speaker 1>Taxin is best known for taxonomics, which is a way

0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:30.520
<v Speaker 1>of calling his populist economic policies that were spent heavily

0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:35.480
<v Speaker 1>on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic consumption, but at

0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:39.440
<v Speaker 1>the same time it was also benefiting big businesses, so

0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.520
<v Speaker 1>he was seen as both pro business as well as

0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.240
<v Speaker 1>supporting grassroots and one of the most lasting legacies that

0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:49.440
<v Speaker 1>he left behind is the universal healthcare that he established

0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:52.680
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and two. His supporters loved him so

0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:56.680
<v Speaker 1>much for spreading the benefits of wealth and growth in

0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:58.960
<v Speaker 1>a country with big gaps between which and poor.

0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:01.280
<v Speaker 3>You could say that it was really the.

0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:05.800
<v Speaker 1>First time that the grassroots rural farmers felt like they

0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:08.320
<v Speaker 1>had a leader that saw them truly.

0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:14.920
<v Speaker 2>Tocsin's immense popularity and overwhelming election victories disrupted Thailand's long

0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:19.760
<v Speaker 2>standing political order. His politics alienated the old guard and

0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:23.760
<v Speaker 2>created powerful enemies among conservatives. That's one of the reasons

0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:25.120
<v Speaker 2>he was forced into exile.

0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:29.400
<v Speaker 1>So the establishment saw Tucsin and his clan as a

0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:33.360
<v Speaker 1>threat to its political power, social hierarchy, and also a

0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:36.640
<v Speaker 1>threat to the monarchy, which is revered as the lynchpin

0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:39.480
<v Speaker 1>of Thailand's national identity.

0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:43.440
<v Speaker 2>Tocsin came to power on a pro democracy platform, but

0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:45.760
<v Speaker 2>in order for him to be able to secure a

0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:49.440
<v Speaker 2>safe return to Thailand, he cut a deal with the establishment,

0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:54.000
<v Speaker 2>and critics say he abandoned the pro democracy cause. His

0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:56.840
<v Speaker 2>party is now in a coalition with one backed by

0:07:56.840 --> 0:08:01.440
<v Speaker 2>a general who ousted his sister's government. Now, certainly when

0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:05.520
<v Speaker 2>people think about Thai politics, military coup come to mind.

0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:09.600
<v Speaker 2>Why is the political situation in Thailand so turbulent and

0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:11.760
<v Speaker 2>why have there been so many coups?

0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.240
<v Speaker 1>It really comes down to the establishment elites who don't

0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:18.600
<v Speaker 1>respect elections but also don't have enough power to sustain

0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:22.760
<v Speaker 1>authoritarian rule. The bottom line is Thailand is perhaps a

0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:26.480
<v Speaker 1>cautionary tale for what happens to a society where democratic

0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:29.880
<v Speaker 1>institutions fall apart, leaving the rich and powerful to fight

0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:35.360
<v Speaker 1>it out and election protests, coup, party dissolution, rins and repeat.

0:08:35.520 --> 0:08:36.960
<v Speaker 3>That's what happens in Tip politics.

0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:41.599
<v Speaker 2>Now, in your story, you interviewed a political analyst professor

0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:46.199
<v Speaker 2>at Bangkok's Chula Lunkorn University, who said very interestingly that

0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:49.800
<v Speaker 2>you know, essentially the powers that be aren't interested and

0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:52.360
<v Speaker 2>don't care about Thailand moving forward with any kind of

0:08:52.400 --> 0:08:57.559
<v Speaker 2>stability and workability, and I wonder, then, what do they

0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:00.880
<v Speaker 2>care about and what do these political groups, these political

0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:03.080
<v Speaker 2>factions want for Thailand.

0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:08.280
<v Speaker 1>The elite establishment care about maintaining the status quo. The

0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:12.280
<v Speaker 1>elite fear that the real democratic reform could unravel the

0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:17.840
<v Speaker 1>entire system that they have been building to protect their privileges, precisions,

0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:22.000
<v Speaker 1>and immunity from accountability. They want to maintain political control,

0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:28.079
<v Speaker 1>which safeguards their massive economic networks, including lands and concessions

0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:32.880
<v Speaker 1>and monopolies and military run businesses and the elite patronage system.

0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:38.800
<v Speaker 1>The repeated systematic pattern of dissolving political parties, especially those

0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:42.680
<v Speaker 1>that won elections over the last twenty years, seems more

0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:46.880
<v Speaker 1>than a deliberate way to keep democratic institutions weak and

0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.880
<v Speaker 1>to keep the traditional status quo for the elites to

0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:50.920
<v Speaker 1>stay in power.

0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:56.280
<v Speaker 2>After the break. What the political chaos in Thailand has

0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:59.520
<v Speaker 2>meant for its economy and its status in the region.

0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:15.120
<v Speaker 2>The potential removal of Thailand's Prime Minister and the ensuing

0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:20.240
<v Speaker 2>political upheaval comes as a country faces economic and geopolitical threats.

0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:25.240
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Papita Tanaka sempipot or Best says, the latest political

0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.959
<v Speaker 2>fallout and a revolving door of leaders highlight what has

0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:32.600
<v Speaker 2>been a persistent problem in Thailand. There's never been an

0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:36.480
<v Speaker 2>elected government in power long enough to actually address the

0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:38.240
<v Speaker 2>problems the country is facing.

0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:43.480
<v Speaker 1>Thailand has one of the highest income in equality between the.

0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:45.160
<v Speaker 3>Rich and the poor.

0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:50.720
<v Speaker 1>Thailand is suffering from poor educational system, high household debt,

0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.959
<v Speaker 1>low private investment, and also really slow economic growth compared

0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:56.320
<v Speaker 1>to its regional neighbors.

0:10:57.160 --> 0:11:00.520
<v Speaker 2>Much of the country's current predicament stems from as nine

0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:04.400
<v Speaker 2>years under the rule of former army chief Prajut chian Ocha,

0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.120
<v Speaker 2>who rose to power in a coup in twenty fourteen.

0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:12.120
<v Speaker 2>The political instability has had long lasting consequences for Thailand's

0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:14.320
<v Speaker 2>economy and its standing in the region.

0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:18.840
<v Speaker 1>During the time between twenty fourteen to now, the economy

0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:21.480
<v Speaker 1>has crawled at a pace of like just under two

0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:26.000
<v Speaker 1>percent annually. Political uncertainty, like frequent changes to governments or

0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:31.480
<v Speaker 1>military crews or mass protests have made foreign investors wary

0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:34.080
<v Speaker 1>of making long term commitments in the country because they

0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:37.760
<v Speaker 1>don't know what's going to happen. Some companies have postponed

0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:41.720
<v Speaker 1>or redirected investments to more stable countries in the region,

0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:45.480
<v Speaker 1>like Vietnam or Indonesia, and we have seen that foreign

0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:48.920
<v Speaker 1>direct investment into Thailand have lagged behind most.

0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:49.480
<v Speaker 3>Of the neighbors.

0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:56.200
<v Speaker 2>Not only is Thailand lagging behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia,

0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.520
<v Speaker 2>it's also found itself distanced from what was once a

0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:01.640
<v Speaker 2>powerful ally, the US.

0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:06.680
<v Speaker 1>The US downgraded diplomatic ties with Chailand after the twenty

0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:11.240
<v Speaker 1>fourteen coup and scaled back the annual military exercises. So

0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:14.520
<v Speaker 1>this has led the military and the military backed governments

0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.480
<v Speaker 1>at the time to cozy up to China through economic

0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:21.480
<v Speaker 1>ties and lessen dependence on Washington. So this makes it

0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:24.200
<v Speaker 1>harder for the US to count on Thailand as a

0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:29.160
<v Speaker 1>stable ally, particularly in efforts to counter China's growing influence

0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.120
<v Speaker 1>in the region. And the constant upheaval in the country

0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:36.280
<v Speaker 1>also reduces Thailand's strategic leverage between the US and China

0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:39.120
<v Speaker 1>and makes it less relevant as an Asian power.

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.559
<v Speaker 2>That doesn't mean Thailand lacks appeal.

0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:43.880
<v Speaker 3>Too much of the world.

0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:48.960
<v Speaker 1>Thailand is associated with scenic beaches, Buddhist temples, wild nightlife,

0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:53.840
<v Speaker 1>which was all depicted in the hit series White Lotus.

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:57.560
<v Speaker 3>What happens in Thailand stays in Thailand. So what does

0:12:57.640 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 3>that mean?

0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:02.000
<v Speaker 2>Thailand is also the largest manufacturing hub for automobiles in

0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:05.920
<v Speaker 2>Southeast Asia. Automakers from Toyota and Nissan to Ford and

0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.000
<v Speaker 2>Byd make their cars in the country, earning it the

0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:12.600
<v Speaker 2>nickname the Detroit of Asia. And it's a big exporter

0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:18.000
<v Speaker 2>of agricultural products. It's the world's biggest rice exporter after India.

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:21.400
<v Speaker 1>Thailand is also a big commodities player.

0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 3>It is one of the world's rice bowls.

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:27.280
<v Speaker 1>Thailand's is also the world's biggest exporter of natural rubber

0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:30.280
<v Speaker 1>and one of the biggest exporters of sugar, which the

0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 1>world cannot live without.

0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:37.840
<v Speaker 2>Best says Thailand can't leverage these strengths at home when

0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.439
<v Speaker 2>the country's leaders have failed to get their act together

0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:44.720
<v Speaker 2>over and over again. Prime Minister Peton tarn Shinawat was

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:48.000
<v Speaker 2>criticized for being slow on negotiating a deal with President

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.719
<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump on tariffs. The country's goods now face a

0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:55.160
<v Speaker 2>thirty six percent levy, among the highest in the region.

0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:58.400
<v Speaker 1>The cause of political turmoil in the country is that

0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:02.480
<v Speaker 1>it makes the country look inward and forget the outside world,

0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:06.240
<v Speaker 1>and frequent leadership changes have also weakened Highland's ability to

0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:10.320
<v Speaker 1>take consistent positions on global and regional issues like global

0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:13.880
<v Speaker 1>supply chain disruption or the reordering of the global trade.

0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:18.839
<v Speaker 1>And because we spent so many years trying to put

0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:21.800
<v Speaker 1>out fires in our own home, it's really hard to

0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:27.440
<v Speaker 1>look beyond the smoke and plan for any modernizations.

0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 3>So what happens is you don't get to look.

0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:33.280
<v Speaker 1>That far ahead or see long term potential, or see

0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:36.960
<v Speaker 1>policies that are more for long term reforms than short

0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:37.840
<v Speaker 1>term stimulus.

0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:42.800
<v Speaker 2>There's concern Thailand's economy could slide into a deep recession

0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:45.520
<v Speaker 2>in the second half of the year if the country

0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:47.960
<v Speaker 2>fails to get a better deal to avoid this steep

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:51.480
<v Speaker 2>US tariffs. With the stakes so high and so much

0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:55.440
<v Speaker 2>hinging on Thailand's political future, what happens next to the

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:59.640
<v Speaker 2>suspended prime minister is key. If the court finds you're

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:03.240
<v Speaker 2>not guilty of the ethics violation, she returns as Prime

0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 2>Minister and everything goes back to normal. But that could

0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:10.200
<v Speaker 2>also mean more protests and even military intervention if the

0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:12.800
<v Speaker 2>army wants an opportunity to seize power.

0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:15.960
<v Speaker 1>If Pedan Tan is deemed guilty by the court, then

0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.000
<v Speaker 1>two potential scenarios could happen from that.

0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 3>First, she would be disqualified.

0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.640
<v Speaker 1>Immediately and removed from office, and that would trigger a

0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.600
<v Speaker 1>new prime minister of vote in the lower house of Parliament.

0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 1>The best outcome is that the transition of power goes

0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:35.400
<v Speaker 1>smoothly to another Prime minister or candidate from the same

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.880
<v Speaker 1>ruling Thai party, even though it's not a Shinawat in power,

0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:42.680
<v Speaker 1>it's still a Shinawat ally and the Shinawat party that's

0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:43.760
<v Speaker 1>still leading the government.

0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:50.800
<v Speaker 2>And there's another possible outcome that could spell trouble for Thailand.

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 1>If the coalition collapses during or before the Prime minister

0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:59.360
<v Speaker 1>will vote, we're likely headed for a protracted political deadlock

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:04.120
<v Speaker 1>where no single candidate has enough support from the sitting

0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:07.200
<v Speaker 1>lawmakers to become prime minister. Then all hell kind of

0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:10.400
<v Speaker 1>breaks loose with no functioning government, and that would threaten

0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:13.160
<v Speaker 1>the passage of the budget bill for the next fiscal

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:17.000
<v Speaker 1>year that begins as soon as October. So unless Platai

0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:20.720
<v Speaker 1>hangs on, this could be the end of the Shinawat's

0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:22.200
<v Speaker 1>dominance in Thai politics.

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:25.280
<v Speaker 2>Now best We started this episode talking about how a

0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:28.800
<v Speaker 2>suspension of a Thai prime minister over leaked phone call

0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:32.400
<v Speaker 2>is just another day in Thai politics. Even with the

0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.040
<v Speaker 2>Shinawat family out of the picture. If that were the case,

0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 2>would that bring about any fundamental change for Thailand's politics

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:39.880
<v Speaker 2>in its future?

0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:44.440
<v Speaker 1>You think this crisis is eye opening, but it will

0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 1>likely not bring about any fundamental changes to Thailand. The

0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:53.080
<v Speaker 1>Shinawats have been a key player in politics for quarter century,

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.200
<v Speaker 1>and they may be losing their appeal or it may

0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:59.320
<v Speaker 1>be fading as players in this game, but the game

0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:03.080
<v Speaker 1>still remains perfectly intact. And if anything, this episode shows

0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:07.160
<v Speaker 1>that the game is as rigged as it is efficient

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:12.720
<v Speaker 1>in helping the elite establishment eliminate its enemies.

0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:14.960
<v Speaker 3>It also shows that even.

0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:19.760
<v Speaker 1>If you try to reconcile and coexist with the old guards,

0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:23.440
<v Speaker 1>you will be allowed to govern only with the blessing

0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:26.960
<v Speaker 1>of the very forces that you opposed. You can be

0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:30.960
<v Speaker 1>a pawn in their chess game, while those forces will

0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:32.040
<v Speaker 1>never fully trust you.

0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 2>Be says right now. Despite whoever happens the whole public office,

0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:42.320
<v Speaker 2>the real power in Thailand lies with individuals and institutions

0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:43.560
<v Speaker 2>that are not elected.

0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.240
<v Speaker 3>This episode, Another Day in Hi Politics.

0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 1>Shows that without a big enough progressive win in Thailand,

0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:54.480
<v Speaker 1>there seems to be no way to implement reforms to

0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:58.919
<v Speaker 1>eventually break this cycle, and Thailand is possibly set to

0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:03.080
<v Speaker 1>remain trapped in this vicious cycle that prevents true democracy

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:06.200
<v Speaker 1>from sticking around long enough after elections to fully take

0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:10.119
<v Speaker 1>roots in a country.

0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:17.080
<v Speaker 2>This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News.

0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:18.240
<v Speaker 3>I'm wanha.

0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:21.480
<v Speaker 2>To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access

0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:24.880
<v Speaker 2>to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:28.520
<v Speaker 2>dot com slash podcast Offer. If you like the episode,

0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:31.280
<v Speaker 2>make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia

0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:34.440
<v Speaker 2>wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find

0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 2>the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.