Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: In late May, troops from Thailand and Cambodia exchanged gunfire
Speaker 2: in a disputed border area, leaving a Cambodian soldier dead
Speaker 2: and relations between the historic rivals at a dangerous inflection point.
Speaker 2: The conflict set off a chain reaction that included border closures,
Speaker 2: threats of retaliation, and finally, a phone call between Thailand's
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Peton Tarn Shinawat and Hun Sen, the former
Speaker 2: leader of Cambodia who still holds power as president of
Speaker 2: the country's main political party and the father of its
Speaker 2: prime minister. Can you hear me.
Speaker 3: Well as you can hear in the phone call, she
Speaker 3: started by calling him uncle.
Speaker 2: Papicha Tanaka Sempipot covers Thailand for Bloomberg out of Bangkok.
Speaker 2: She's known by her Thai nickname Best, She said. Pet
Speaker 2: tannk Taran is the fourth member of the Shinawat family
Speaker 2: to lead Thailand in the last quarter century. Her father,
Speaker 2: former Prime Minister Tosin Shinawat, still holds sway in Thai politics.
Speaker 2: He and Hunsen forged a friendship years ago.
Speaker 1: She started calling him uncle in the call because to her,
Speaker 1: Hunsen was a family friend, and Hunsen had been their
Speaker 1: time and again for the Shinawat family, providing them refuge
Speaker 1: when they needed. They were so close that Tuksin even
Speaker 1: had a room reserved at Hunsen's house.
Speaker 2: Pet tunk Tarn's differential tone and calling him uncle was
Speaker 2: a tip of the iceberg. During the seventeen minute call,
Speaker 2: she appeared to side with Hunsen on multiple occasions, referring
Speaker 2: to a top Thai military commander as an opponent and
Speaker 2: promising to take care of Hunsen's concerns.
Speaker 1: She sounded critical of the high military, and she characterized
Speaker 1: them as the other side, while putting her and Hun
Speaker 1: Sent on the same side, and that is probably a.
Speaker 3: Breach in the diplomatic protocols.
Speaker 1: It also reflected that the Thai Army and the Thai
Speaker 1: government were not seeing eye to eye about the conflict,
Speaker 1: which did not inspire confidence in the Thai people.
Speaker 2: A few days after the call, Hunsen posted audio of
Speaker 2: the conversation on Facebook, plunging Petung Tarn's coalition government into crisis.
Speaker 1: By the phone call set off a big and dramatic
Speaker 1: chain of events, pushing the government to the brink of collapse.
Speaker 1: With the exit of a key coalition party. The strong
Speaker 1: public reaction to the call also set off several protests,
Speaker 1: including a massive one that called for Penalton to resign.
Speaker 3: On June twenty eight.
Speaker 1: Twenty thousand people came out that day, and that was
Speaker 1: the biggest turnout in a long time.
Speaker 2: Peton Tarn eventually apologized for the phone call and claimed
Speaker 2: that her methods were actually a negotiating tactic, but the
Speaker 2: conversation has left her political future and Thailand's government in limbo.
Speaker 2: In the wake of the protests, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended
Speaker 2: her as Prime Minister, citing alleged ethical misconduct. The court's verdict,
Speaker 2: which is expected to come later this year, could permanently
Speaker 2: remove her from the job. This spiraling political turmoil might
Speaker 2: all seem very dramatic, but for Thailand, it's a recurring theme.
Speaker 2: The nation has seen about twenty constitutions and roughly a
Speaker 2: dozen coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in nineteen
Speaker 2: thirty two.
Speaker 1: This is really another day in Thai politics, and also
Speaker 1: not the first time you find tax in order. Shinawat
Speaker 1: family at many turning points or crossroads in contemporary Thai history,
Speaker 1: after all disease. The dynasty that has dominated high politics
Speaker 1: for the past quarters injury, but now people are wondering
Speaker 1: if this is the beginning of the end of their
Speaker 1: dynastic rule.
Speaker 2: This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Speaker 2: Every week we take you inside some of the world's
Speaker 2: biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
Speaker 2: businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show,
Speaker 2: what the recent suspension of Thailand's prime minister could mean
Speaker 2: for its battered economy, and after nearly three decades, is
Speaker 2: the Shinawat family's grip on Thai politics finally come into
Speaker 2: an end. Petung Tarn Shinawat is the fourth member of
Speaker 2: the powerful Shinawat clan to lead Thailand. Her family has
Speaker 2: dominated high politics ever since her father Toksin first came
Speaker 2: into power in two thousand and one.
Speaker 1: They absolutely have huge influence over typ You cannot talk
Speaker 1: about Tai politics without mentioning Taxin or his family. Tutxin,
Speaker 1: the main character, was Prime miniserve from two thousand and one,
Speaker 1: for which he served a full term after winning a
Speaker 1: landslide victory, but then his second term in office was
Speaker 1: cut short in two thousand and six when the military
Speaker 1: seized power.
Speaker 2: The generals in charge accused him of corruption and abusive power.
Speaker 2: His party was dissolved and he eventually went into exile.
Speaker 2: But even then, as he faced corruption charges, Toxin continued
Speaker 2: to influence Thai politics through per Thai, his family's political party.
Speaker 1: When people were voting for Pertai, they knew that they
Speaker 1: were essentially voting for a Taxan government without Taxin in
Speaker 1: the picture. The Chinawats came back to contest the election
Speaker 1: in twenty eleven with the Puts High party under Yin Lak,
Speaker 1: who is Tuxan's sister, but her term was again cut short.
Speaker 1: And now that brings us to the most recent election
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three, which saw Tuxan's daughter Patan Tan
Speaker 1: rise to power and bring her dynasty back to the
Speaker 1: top political office.
Speaker 3: And that's where we are. Now.
Speaker 2: Why is it that the shino Watts are so popular
Speaker 2: and loved by some in Thailand? Why is it that
Speaker 2: they have maintained their dominance politically for so many years?
Speaker 1: A lot of that had to do with the lasting
Speaker 1: legacy that Taxin left behind when he was Prime Minister.
Speaker 1: Taxin is best known for taxonomics, which is a way
Speaker 1: of calling his populist economic policies that were spent heavily
Speaker 1: on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic consumption, but at
Speaker 1: the same time it was also benefiting big businesses, so
Speaker 1: he was seen as both pro business as well as
Speaker 1: supporting grassroots and one of the most lasting legacies that
Speaker 1: he left behind is the universal healthcare that he established
Speaker 1: in two thousand and two. His supporters loved him so
Speaker 1: much for spreading the benefits of wealth and growth in
Speaker 1: a country with big gaps between which and poor.
Speaker 3: You could say that it was really the.
Speaker 1: First time that the grassroots rural farmers felt like they
Speaker 1: had a leader that saw them truly.
Speaker 2: Tocsin's immense popularity and overwhelming election victories disrupted Thailand's long
Speaker 2: standing political order. His politics alienated the old guard and
Speaker 2: created powerful enemies among conservatives. That's one of the reasons
Speaker 2: he was forced into exile.
Speaker 1: So the establishment saw Tucsin and his clan as a
Speaker 1: threat to its political power, social hierarchy, and also a
Speaker 1: threat to the monarchy, which is revered as the lynchpin
Speaker 1: of Thailand's national identity.
Speaker 2: Tocsin came to power on a pro democracy platform, but
Speaker 2: in order for him to be able to secure a
Speaker 2: safe return to Thailand, he cut a deal with the establishment,
Speaker 2: and critics say he abandoned the pro democracy cause. His
Speaker 2: party is now in a coalition with one backed by
Speaker 2: a general who ousted his sister's government. Now, certainly when
Speaker 2: people think about Thai politics, military coup come to mind.
Speaker 2: Why is the political situation in Thailand so turbulent and
Speaker 2: why have there been so many coups?
Speaker 1: It really comes down to the establishment elites who don't
Speaker 1: respect elections but also don't have enough power to sustain
Speaker 1: authoritarian rule. The bottom line is Thailand is perhaps a
Speaker 1: cautionary tale for what happens to a society where democratic
Speaker 1: institutions fall apart, leaving the rich and powerful to fight
Speaker 1: it out and election protests, coup, party dissolution, rins and repeat.
Speaker 3: That's what happens in Tip politics.
Speaker 2: Now, in your story, you interviewed a political analyst professor
Speaker 2: at Bangkok's Chula Lunkorn University, who said very interestingly that
Speaker 2: you know, essentially the powers that be aren't interested and
Speaker 2: don't care about Thailand moving forward with any kind of
Speaker 2: stability and workability, and I wonder, then, what do they
Speaker 2: care about and what do these political groups, these political
Speaker 2: factions want for Thailand.
Speaker 1: The elite establishment care about maintaining the status quo. The
Speaker 1: elite fear that the real democratic reform could unravel the
Speaker 1: entire system that they have been building to protect their privileges, precisions,
Speaker 1: and immunity from accountability. They want to maintain political control,
Speaker 1: which safeguards their massive economic networks, including lands and concessions
Speaker 1: and monopolies and military run businesses and the elite patronage system.
Speaker 1: The repeated systematic pattern of dissolving political parties, especially those
Speaker 1: that won elections over the last twenty years, seems more
Speaker 1: than a deliberate way to keep democratic institutions weak and
Speaker 1: to keep the traditional status quo for the elites to
Speaker 1: stay in power.
Speaker 2: After the break. What the political chaos in Thailand has
Speaker 2: meant for its economy and its status in the region.
Speaker 2: The potential removal of Thailand's Prime Minister and the ensuing
Speaker 2: political upheaval comes as a country faces economic and geopolitical threats.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Papita Tanaka sempipot or Best says, the latest political
Speaker 2: fallout and a revolving door of leaders highlight what has
Speaker 2: been a persistent problem in Thailand. There's never been an
Speaker 2: elected government in power long enough to actually address the
Speaker 2: problems the country is facing.
Speaker 1: Thailand has one of the highest income in equality between the.
Speaker 3: Rich and the poor.
Speaker 1: Thailand is suffering from poor educational system, high household debt,
Speaker 1: low private investment, and also really slow economic growth compared
Speaker 1: to its regional neighbors.
Speaker 2: Much of the country's current predicament stems from as nine
Speaker 2: years under the rule of former army chief Prajut chian Ocha,
Speaker 2: who rose to power in a coup in twenty fourteen.
Speaker 2: The political instability has had long lasting consequences for Thailand's
Speaker 2: economy and its standing in the region.
Speaker 1: During the time between twenty fourteen to now, the economy
Speaker 1: has crawled at a pace of like just under two
Speaker 1: percent annually. Political uncertainty, like frequent changes to governments or
Speaker 1: military crews or mass protests have made foreign investors wary
Speaker 1: of making long term commitments in the country because they
Speaker 1: don't know what's going to happen. Some companies have postponed
Speaker 1: or redirected investments to more stable countries in the region,
Speaker 1: like Vietnam or Indonesia, and we have seen that foreign
Speaker 1: direct investment into Thailand have lagged behind most.
Speaker 3: Of the neighbors.
Speaker 2: Not only is Thailand lagging behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia,
Speaker 2: it's also found itself distanced from what was once a
Speaker 2: powerful ally, the US.
Speaker 1: The US downgraded diplomatic ties with Chailand after the twenty
Speaker 1: fourteen coup and scaled back the annual military exercises. So
Speaker 1: this has led the military and the military backed governments
Speaker 1: at the time to cozy up to China through economic
Speaker 1: ties and lessen dependence on Washington. So this makes it
Speaker 1: harder for the US to count on Thailand as a
Speaker 1: stable ally, particularly in efforts to counter China's growing influence
Speaker 1: in the region. And the constant upheaval in the country
Speaker 1: also reduces Thailand's strategic leverage between the US and China
Speaker 1: and makes it less relevant as an Asian power.
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean Thailand lacks appeal.
Speaker 3: Too much of the world.
Speaker 1: Thailand is associated with scenic beaches, Buddhist temples, wild nightlife,
Speaker 1: which was all depicted in the hit series White Lotus.
Speaker 3: What happens in Thailand stays in Thailand. So what does
Speaker 3: that mean?
Speaker 2: Thailand is also the largest manufacturing hub for automobiles in
Speaker 2: Southeast Asia. Automakers from Toyota and Nissan to Ford and
Speaker 2: Byd make their cars in the country, earning it the
Speaker 2: nickname the Detroit of Asia. And it's a big exporter
Speaker 2: of agricultural products. It's the world's biggest rice exporter after India.
Speaker 1: Thailand is also a big commodities player.
Speaker 3: It is one of the world's rice bowls.
Speaker 1: Thailand's is also the world's biggest exporter of natural rubber
Speaker 1: and one of the biggest exporters of sugar, which the
Speaker 1: world cannot live without.
Speaker 2: Best says Thailand can't leverage these strengths at home when
Speaker 2: the country's leaders have failed to get their act together
Speaker 2: over and over again. Prime Minister Peton tarn Shinawat was
Speaker 2: criticized for being slow on negotiating a deal with President
Speaker 2: Donald Trump on tariffs. The country's goods now face a
Speaker 2: thirty six percent levy, among the highest in the region.
Speaker 1: The cause of political turmoil in the country is that
Speaker 1: it makes the country look inward and forget the outside world,
Speaker 1: and frequent leadership changes have also weakened Highland's ability to
Speaker 1: take consistent positions on global and regional issues like global
Speaker 1: supply chain disruption or the reordering of the global trade.
Speaker 1: And because we spent so many years trying to put
Speaker 1: out fires in our own home, it's really hard to
Speaker 1: look beyond the smoke and plan for any modernizations.
Speaker 3: So what happens is you don't get to look.
Speaker 1: That far ahead or see long term potential, or see
Speaker 1: policies that are more for long term reforms than short
Speaker 1: term stimulus.
Speaker 2: There's concern Thailand's economy could slide into a deep recession
Speaker 2: in the second half of the year if the country
Speaker 2: fails to get a better deal to avoid this steep
Speaker 2: US tariffs. With the stakes so high and so much
Speaker 2: hinging on Thailand's political future, what happens next to the
Speaker 2: suspended prime minister is key. If the court finds you're
Speaker 2: not guilty of the ethics violation, she returns as Prime
Speaker 2: Minister and everything goes back to normal. But that could
Speaker 2: also mean more protests and even military intervention if the
Speaker 2: army wants an opportunity to seize power.
Speaker 1: If Pedan Tan is deemed guilty by the court, then
Speaker 1: two potential scenarios could happen from that.
Speaker 3: First, she would be disqualified.
Speaker 1: Immediately and removed from office, and that would trigger a
Speaker 1: new prime minister of vote in the lower house of Parliament.
Speaker 1: The best outcome is that the transition of power goes
Speaker 1: smoothly to another Prime minister or candidate from the same
Speaker 1: ruling Thai party, even though it's not a Shinawat in power,
Speaker 1: it's still a Shinawat ally and the Shinawat party that's
Speaker 1: still leading the government.
Speaker 2: And there's another possible outcome that could spell trouble for Thailand.
Speaker 1: If the coalition collapses during or before the Prime minister
Speaker 1: will vote, we're likely headed for a protracted political deadlock
Speaker 1: where no single candidate has enough support from the sitting
Speaker 1: lawmakers to become prime minister. Then all hell kind of
Speaker 1: breaks loose with no functioning government, and that would threaten
Speaker 1: the passage of the budget bill for the next fiscal
Speaker 1: year that begins as soon as October. So unless Platai
Speaker 1: hangs on, this could be the end of the Shinawat's
Speaker 1: dominance in Thai politics.
Speaker 2: Now best We started this episode talking about how a
Speaker 2: suspension of a Thai prime minister over leaked phone call
Speaker 2: is just another day in Thai politics. Even with the
Speaker 2: Shinawat family out of the picture. If that were the case,
Speaker 2: would that bring about any fundamental change for Thailand's politics
Speaker 2: in its future?
Speaker 1: You think this crisis is eye opening, but it will
Speaker 1: likely not bring about any fundamental changes to Thailand. The
Speaker 1: Shinawats have been a key player in politics for quarter century,
Speaker 1: and they may be losing their appeal or it may
Speaker 1: be fading as players in this game, but the game
Speaker 1: still remains perfectly intact. And if anything, this episode shows
Speaker 1: that the game is as rigged as it is efficient
Speaker 1: in helping the elite establishment eliminate its enemies.
Speaker 3: It also shows that even.
Speaker 1: If you try to reconcile and coexist with the old guards,
Speaker 1: you will be allowed to govern only with the blessing
Speaker 1: of the very forces that you opposed. You can be
Speaker 1: a pawn in their chess game, while those forces will
Speaker 1: never fully trust you.
Speaker 2: Be says right now. Despite whoever happens the whole public office,
Speaker 2: the real power in Thailand lies with individuals and institutions
Speaker 2: that are not elected.
Speaker 3: This episode, Another Day in Hi Politics.
Speaker 1: Shows that without a big enough progressive win in Thailand,
Speaker 1: there seems to be no way to implement reforms to
Speaker 1: eventually break this cycle, and Thailand is possibly set to
Speaker 1: remain trapped in this vicious cycle that prevents true democracy
Speaker 1: from sticking around long enough after elections to fully take
Speaker 1: roots in a country.
Speaker 2: This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News.
Speaker 3: I'm wanha.
Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access
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Speaker 2: the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.