1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 2: In late May, troops from Thailand and Cambodia exchanged gunfire 3 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 2: in a disputed border area, leaving a Cambodian soldier dead 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 2: and relations between the historic rivals at a dangerous inflection point. 5 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 2: The conflict set off a chain reaction that included border closures, 6 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 2: threats of retaliation, and finally, a phone call between Thailand's 7 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 2: Prime Minister Peton Tarn Shinawat and Hun Sen, the former 8 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 2: leader of Cambodia who still holds power as president of 9 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 2: the country's main political party and the father of its 10 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 2: prime minister. Can you hear me. 11 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 3: Well as you can hear in the phone call, she 12 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 3: started by calling him uncle. 13 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 2: Papicha Tanaka Sempipot covers Thailand for Bloomberg out of Bangkok. 14 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 2: She's known by her Thai nickname Best, She said. Pet 15 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 2: tannk Taran is the fourth member of the Shinawat family 16 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 2: to lead Thailand in the last quarter century. Her father, 17 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: former Prime Minister Tosin Shinawat, still holds sway in Thai politics. 18 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 2: He and Hunsen forged a friendship years ago. 19 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: She started calling him uncle in the call because to her, 20 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: Hunsen was a family friend, and Hunsen had been their 21 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: time and again for the Shinawat family, providing them refuge 22 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: when they needed. They were so close that Tuksin even 23 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: had a room reserved at Hunsen's house. 24 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 2: Pet tunk Tarn's differential tone and calling him uncle was 25 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,199 Speaker 2: a tip of the iceberg. During the seventeen minute call, 26 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 2: she appeared to side with Hunsen on multiple occasions, referring 27 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: to a top Thai military commander as an opponent and 28 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: promising to take care of Hunsen's concerns. 29 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: She sounded critical of the high military, and she characterized 30 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 1: them as the other side, while putting her and Hun 31 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: Sent on the same side, and that is probably a. 32 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 3: Breach in the diplomatic protocols. 33 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: It also reflected that the Thai Army and the Thai 34 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: government were not seeing eye to eye about the conflict, 35 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: which did not inspire confidence in the Thai people. 36 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 2: A few days after the call, Hunsen posted audio of 37 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 2: the conversation on Facebook, plunging Petung Tarn's coalition government into crisis. 38 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: By the phone call set off a big and dramatic 39 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 1: chain of events, pushing the government to the brink of collapse. 40 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: With the exit of a key coalition party. The strong 41 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: public reaction to the call also set off several protests, 42 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: including a massive one that called for Penalton to resign. 43 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 3: On June twenty eight. 44 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: Twenty thousand people came out that day, and that was 45 00:02:57,760 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: the biggest turnout in a long time. 46 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 2: Peton Tarn eventually apologized for the phone call and claimed 47 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 2: that her methods were actually a negotiating tactic, but the 48 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 2: conversation has left her political future and Thailand's government in limbo. 49 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: In the wake of the protests, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended 50 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 2: her as Prime Minister, citing alleged ethical misconduct. The court's verdict, 51 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: which is expected to come later this year, could permanently 52 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 2: remove her from the job. This spiraling political turmoil might 53 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 2: all seem very dramatic, but for Thailand, it's a recurring theme. 54 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 2: The nation has seen about twenty constitutions and roughly a 55 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 2: dozen coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in nineteen 56 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 2: thirty two. 57 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: This is really another day in Thai politics, and also 58 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: not the first time you find tax in order. Shinawat 59 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: family at many turning points or crossroads in contemporary Thai history, 60 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: after all disease. The dynasty that has dominated high politics 61 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: for the past quarters injury, but now people are wondering 62 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: if this is the beginning of the end of their 63 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: dynastic rule. 64 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha. 65 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 2: Every week we take you inside some of the world's 66 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 2: biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and 67 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 2: businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show, 68 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 2: what the recent suspension of Thailand's prime minister could mean 69 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 2: for its battered economy, and after nearly three decades, is 70 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 2: the Shinawat family's grip on Thai politics finally come into 71 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 2: an end. Petung Tarn Shinawat is the fourth member of 72 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 2: the powerful Shinawat clan to lead Thailand. Her family has 73 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 2: dominated high politics ever since her father Toksin first came 74 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 2: into power in two thousand and one. 75 00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: They absolutely have huge influence over typ You cannot talk 76 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: about Tai politics without mentioning Taxin or his family. Tutxin, 77 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: the main character, was Prime miniserve from two thousand and one, 78 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: for which he served a full term after winning a 79 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 1: landslide victory, but then his second term in office was 80 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: cut short in two thousand and six when the military 81 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 1: seized power. 82 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 2: The generals in charge accused him of corruption and abusive power. 83 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 2: His party was dissolved and he eventually went into exile. 84 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 2: But even then, as he faced corruption charges, Toxin continued 85 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: to influence Thai politics through per Thai, his family's political party. 86 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: When people were voting for Pertai, they knew that they 87 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: were essentially voting for a Taxan government without Taxin in 88 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: the picture. The Chinawats came back to contest the election 89 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 1: in twenty eleven with the Puts High party under Yin Lak, 90 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: who is Tuxan's sister, but her term was again cut short. 91 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: And now that brings us to the most recent election 92 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three, which saw Tuxan's daughter Patan Tan 93 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: rise to power and bring her dynasty back to the 94 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: top political office. 95 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 3: And that's where we are. Now. 96 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 2: Why is it that the shino Watts are so popular 97 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: and loved by some in Thailand? Why is it that 98 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 2: they have maintained their dominance politically for so many years? 99 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 1: A lot of that had to do with the lasting 100 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: legacy that Taxin left behind when he was Prime Minister. 101 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 1: Taxin is best known for taxonomics, which is a way 102 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: of calling his populist economic policies that were spent heavily 103 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic consumption, but at 104 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: the same time it was also benefiting big businesses, so 105 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 1: he was seen as both pro business as well as 106 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 1: supporting grassroots and one of the most lasting legacies that 107 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: he left behind is the universal healthcare that he established 108 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: in two thousand and two. His supporters loved him so 109 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 1: much for spreading the benefits of wealth and growth in 110 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: a country with big gaps between which and poor. 111 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 3: You could say that it was really the. 112 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: First time that the grassroots rural farmers felt like they 113 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: had a leader that saw them truly. 114 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 2: Tocsin's immense popularity and overwhelming election victories disrupted Thailand's long 115 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 2: standing political order. His politics alienated the old guard and 116 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: created powerful enemies among conservatives. That's one of the reasons 117 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 2: he was forced into exile. 118 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: So the establishment saw Tucsin and his clan as a 119 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: threat to its political power, social hierarchy, and also a 120 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: threat to the monarchy, which is revered as the lynchpin 121 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: of Thailand's national identity. 122 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 2: Tocsin came to power on a pro democracy platform, but 123 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 2: in order for him to be able to secure a 124 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 2: safe return to Thailand, he cut a deal with the establishment, 125 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 2: and critics say he abandoned the pro democracy cause. His 126 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 2: party is now in a coalition with one backed by 127 00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 2: a general who ousted his sister's government. Now, certainly when 128 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 2: people think about Thai politics, military coup come to mind. 129 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 2: Why is the political situation in Thailand so turbulent and 130 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 2: why have there been so many coups? 131 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: It really comes down to the establishment elites who don't 132 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: respect elections but also don't have enough power to sustain 133 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: authoritarian rule. The bottom line is Thailand is perhaps a 134 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: cautionary tale for what happens to a society where democratic 135 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: institutions fall apart, leaving the rich and powerful to fight 136 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: it out and election protests, coup, party dissolution, rins and repeat. 137 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 3: That's what happens in Tip politics. 138 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:41,599 Speaker 2: Now, in your story, you interviewed a political analyst professor 139 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:46,199 Speaker 2: at Bangkok's Chula Lunkorn University, who said very interestingly that 140 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 2: you know, essentially the powers that be aren't interested and 141 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 2: don't care about Thailand moving forward with any kind of 142 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:57,559 Speaker 2: stability and workability, and I wonder, then, what do they 143 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 2: care about and what do these political groups, these political 144 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 2: factions want for Thailand. 145 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: The elite establishment care about maintaining the status quo. The 146 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: elite fear that the real democratic reform could unravel the 147 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: entire system that they have been building to protect their privileges, precisions, 148 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: and immunity from accountability. They want to maintain political control, 149 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:28,079 Speaker 1: which safeguards their massive economic networks, including lands and concessions 150 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: and monopolies and military run businesses and the elite patronage system. 151 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: The repeated systematic pattern of dissolving political parties, especially those 152 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 1: that won elections over the last twenty years, seems more 153 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: than a deliberate way to keep democratic institutions weak and 154 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 1: to keep the traditional status quo for the elites to 155 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: stay in power. 156 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 2: After the break. What the political chaos in Thailand has 157 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 2: meant for its economy and its status in the region. 158 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 2: The potential removal of Thailand's Prime Minister and the ensuing 159 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 2: political upheaval comes as a country faces economic and geopolitical threats. 160 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Papita Tanaka sempipot or Best says, the latest political 161 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,959 Speaker 2: fallout and a revolving door of leaders highlight what has 162 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 2: been a persistent problem in Thailand. There's never been an 163 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 2: elected government in power long enough to actually address the 164 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 2: problems the country is facing. 165 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: Thailand has one of the highest income in equality between the. 166 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 3: Rich and the poor. 167 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: Thailand is suffering from poor educational system, high household debt, 168 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 1: low private investment, and also really slow economic growth compared 169 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: to its regional neighbors. 170 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 2: Much of the country's current predicament stems from as nine 171 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 2: years under the rule of former army chief Prajut chian Ocha, 172 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 2: who rose to power in a coup in twenty fourteen. 173 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 2: The political instability has had long lasting consequences for Thailand's 174 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,320 Speaker 2: economy and its standing in the region. 175 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 1: During the time between twenty fourteen to now, the economy 176 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: has crawled at a pace of like just under two 177 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: percent annually. Political uncertainty, like frequent changes to governments or 178 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: military crews or mass protests have made foreign investors wary 179 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: of making long term commitments in the country because they 180 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: don't know what's going to happen. Some companies have postponed 181 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 1: or redirected investments to more stable countries in the region, 182 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: like Vietnam or Indonesia, and we have seen that foreign 183 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: direct investment into Thailand have lagged behind most. 184 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 3: Of the neighbors. 185 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 2: Not only is Thailand lagging behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia, 186 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 2: it's also found itself distanced from what was once a 187 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 2: powerful ally, the US. 188 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: The US downgraded diplomatic ties with Chailand after the twenty 189 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: fourteen coup and scaled back the annual military exercises. So 190 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: this has led the military and the military backed governments 191 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: at the time to cozy up to China through economic 192 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 1: ties and lessen dependence on Washington. So this makes it 193 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: harder for the US to count on Thailand as a 194 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: stable ally, particularly in efforts to counter China's growing influence 195 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: in the region. And the constant upheaval in the country 196 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 1: also reduces Thailand's strategic leverage between the US and China 197 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: and makes it less relevant as an Asian power. 198 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:42,559 Speaker 2: That doesn't mean Thailand lacks appeal. 199 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 3: Too much of the world. 200 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: Thailand is associated with scenic beaches, Buddhist temples, wild nightlife, 201 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: which was all depicted in the hit series White Lotus. 202 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 3: What happens in Thailand stays in Thailand. So what does 203 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 3: that mean? 204 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 2: Thailand is also the largest manufacturing hub for automobiles in 205 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 2: Southeast Asia. Automakers from Toyota and Nissan to Ford and 206 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 2: Byd make their cars in the country, earning it the 207 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 2: nickname the Detroit of Asia. And it's a big exporter 208 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 2: of agricultural products. It's the world's biggest rice exporter after India. 209 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: Thailand is also a big commodities player. 210 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 3: It is one of the world's rice bowls. 211 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: Thailand's is also the world's biggest exporter of natural rubber 212 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 1: and one of the biggest exporters of sugar, which the 213 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: world cannot live without. 214 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 2: Best says Thailand can't leverage these strengths at home when 215 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,439 Speaker 2: the country's leaders have failed to get their act together 216 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 2: over and over again. Prime Minister Peton tarn Shinawat was 217 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 2: criticized for being slow on negotiating a deal with President 218 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,719 Speaker 2: Donald Trump on tariffs. The country's goods now face a 219 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 2: thirty six percent levy, among the highest in the region. 220 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: The cause of political turmoil in the country is that 221 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 1: it makes the country look inward and forget the outside world, 222 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 1: and frequent leadership changes have also weakened Highland's ability to 223 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 1: take consistent positions on global and regional issues like global 224 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: supply chain disruption or the reordering of the global trade. 225 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,839 Speaker 1: And because we spent so many years trying to put 226 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: out fires in our own home, it's really hard to 227 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: look beyond the smoke and plan for any modernizations. 228 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 3: So what happens is you don't get to look. 229 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: That far ahead or see long term potential, or see 230 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: policies that are more for long term reforms than short 231 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: term stimulus. 232 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 2: There's concern Thailand's economy could slide into a deep recession 233 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 2: in the second half of the year if the country 234 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 2: fails to get a better deal to avoid this steep 235 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 2: US tariffs. With the stakes so high and so much 236 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 2: hinging on Thailand's political future, what happens next to the 237 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 2: suspended prime minister is key. If the court finds you're 238 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 2: not guilty of the ethics violation, she returns as Prime 239 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 2: Minister and everything goes back to normal. But that could 240 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 2: also mean more protests and even military intervention if the 241 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 2: army wants an opportunity to seize power. 242 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: If Pedan Tan is deemed guilty by the court, then 243 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: two potential scenarios could happen from that. 244 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 3: First, she would be disqualified. 245 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: Immediately and removed from office, and that would trigger a 246 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: new prime minister of vote in the lower house of Parliament. 247 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: The best outcome is that the transition of power goes 248 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: smoothly to another Prime minister or candidate from the same 249 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 1: ruling Thai party, even though it's not a Shinawat in power, 250 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: it's still a Shinawat ally and the Shinawat party that's 251 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: still leading the government. 252 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 2: And there's another possible outcome that could spell trouble for Thailand. 253 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: If the coalition collapses during or before the Prime minister 254 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: will vote, we're likely headed for a protracted political deadlock 255 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 1: where no single candidate has enough support from the sitting 256 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: lawmakers to become prime minister. Then all hell kind of 257 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: breaks loose with no functioning government, and that would threaten 258 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: the passage of the budget bill for the next fiscal 259 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 1: year that begins as soon as October. So unless Platai 260 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: hangs on, this could be the end of the Shinawat's 261 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: dominance in Thai politics. 262 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 2: Now best We started this episode talking about how a 263 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 2: suspension of a Thai prime minister over leaked phone call 264 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 2: is just another day in Thai politics. Even with the 265 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 2: Shinawat family out of the picture. If that were the case, 266 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 2: would that bring about any fundamental change for Thailand's politics 267 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 2: in its future? 268 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: You think this crisis is eye opening, but it will 269 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: likely not bring about any fundamental changes to Thailand. The 270 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: Shinawats have been a key player in politics for quarter century, 271 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: and they may be losing their appeal or it may 272 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: be fading as players in this game, but the game 273 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: still remains perfectly intact. And if anything, this episode shows 274 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 1: that the game is as rigged as it is efficient 275 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: in helping the elite establishment eliminate its enemies. 276 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 3: It also shows that even. 277 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: If you try to reconcile and coexist with the old guards, 278 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 1: you will be allowed to govern only with the blessing 279 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: of the very forces that you opposed. You can be 280 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: a pawn in their chess game, while those forces will 281 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: never fully trust you. 282 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 2: Be says right now. Despite whoever happens the whole public office, 283 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 2: the real power in Thailand lies with individuals and institutions 284 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 2: that are not elected. 285 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 3: This episode, Another Day in Hi Politics. 286 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: Shows that without a big enough progressive win in Thailand, 287 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: there seems to be no way to implement reforms to 288 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,919 Speaker 1: eventually break this cycle, and Thailand is possibly set to 289 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: remain trapped in this vicious cycle that prevents true democracy 290 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 1: from sticking around long enough after elections to fully take 291 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 1: roots in a country. 292 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 2: This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. 293 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 3: I'm wanha. 294 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 295 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 2: to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 296 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 2: dot com slash podcast Offer. If you like the episode, 297 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 2: make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia 298 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 2: wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find 299 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 2: the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.