1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action awesome. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 3: All right. 4 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 4: Here we go there throwing in Joe speak, we're saying 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 4: it's a catch touchdown. 6 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 5: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 7 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 5: go to wind. 8 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: That's incredible. 9 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: Big banks, all banks. I like to make money. 10 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabak you want to 11 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: pack and we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. 12 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: We are presented by FanDuel. I'm your host today, Brendan 13 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: glas Sheen. Today's episode Week twelve NFL Best Bets. We 14 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: are coming to you early in the week. We have 15 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: shuffled our schedules. We've done some musical chairs and the 16 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 1: analysts role. Because the holidays are here, Happy Thanksgiving. We 17 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: have the Touchdown show host frequent guest Jill Gallant. Show 18 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: airs on Sunday mornings at eleven thirty am Eastern on 19 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: the Action at We welcome in Nick Giffin, who is 20 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: a contributor to predictive analytics at Action Network. He's always 21 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 1: got you covered on bet what Happens Live during those 22 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:11,479 Speaker 1: standalone primetime spots on the Action app and Anthony Debundo 23 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: joining us from Action Network HQ. He has removed himself 24 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: from World Cup coverage and he puts his three and 25 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 1: zero best bets record on the line, helping us out 26 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: Week eleven allow five hundred for the first time. In 27 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks we went four and five fifty 28 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: six forty and two for the season. You can find 29 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: the picks for the show over in the action app 30 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 1: Action Network NFL Picks. There, you can also find the 31 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: Sunday six pack with Raybond and Stucky. First best bet 32 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 1: will come from Jill today. As a reminder, these guys 33 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: have not consulted one another before starting this best bets record, 34 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: so we may have overlap, we may have contradictions. That's 35 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: what makes it fun. Jill, get us started, please absolutely So. 36 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 4: I'm going to start Brendan at the Thanksgiving slate and 37 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 4: I'm going to be looking at Cowboys versus Giants. Now, 38 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 4: I'm not gonna take a sideer total this time, as 39 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 4: I usually like to bet anytime touchdowns. Make sure to 40 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 4: watch the Touchdown Show on eleven thirty am Eastern on Sunday. 41 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 1: Shameless plug. 42 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 4: Now, I want to bet a touchdown in this game, 43 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 4: and I think the guy that we gotta bet is 44 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 4: Dak Prescott for an anytime touchdown at plus four hundred, 45 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 4: So why we're gonna look at Dak starting to run 46 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 4: a bit more coming back off of that injury. He 47 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 4: did score in their last home game versus the Bears, 48 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 4: for reference, he was plus three point fifty or at 49 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 4: anytime touchdown in that game. And when you look at 50 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 4: the history of Dak Prescott, obviously you think of the 51 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 4: ankle surgery and the shoulder injury from last year, but overall, 52 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 4: he scored twenty six rushing touchdowns in ninety games. The 53 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 4: reason why I bring that up is when you look 54 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 4: at where he's been scoring them, and if you just 55 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 4: look at his career splits, seventeen of those touchdowns have 56 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 4: been scored at Jerry World. So that's usually where he 57 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 4: feels a little more comfortable, being able to play in 58 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 4: the turf instead of just out in the elements. Now, 59 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 4: when the Cowboy they played the Giants in Week three, 60 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 4: bit of a run show. Both Pollard and Zeke averaged 61 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 4: over six yards per carry. You know Pollard as well, 62 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 4: I had over one hundred yards rushing. Now the Giants, 63 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 4: they're the only NFC East team that Prescott has not 64 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 4: scored a touchdown yet in his career. I think that's 65 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 4: going to change here for Thanksgiving, especially with what we 66 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 4: just saw last week where they got pretty much run 67 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 4: over the entire game. Four rushing touchdowns by the Lions 68 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 4: between Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift. So I think Dak 69 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 4: Prescott could be in a great spot here to score 70 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 4: a touchdown at plus four hundred. So that is my 71 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 4: first best bet of Week twelve. 72 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: Love it, love it. Yes, Pollard Zeke being back, but 73 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: it allows the offense to be more multiple. It's a 74 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: good point, and that gives Dak maybe some opportunity Mike 75 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: McCarthy and company to scheme it up and be creative offensively, 76 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: especially in the red zone. Let's go to Nick Giffen. Now, 77 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: what do you have for us? 78 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 2: Nick? 79 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: First pick? 80 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna tail, well not tail, but I'm gonna 81 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 3: stick with my touchdown show partner Jill, and I'm going 82 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 3: to go with anytime touchdown bet. But this time I'm 83 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 3: heading over to New England versus Minnesota, and I'm taking 84 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 3: kJ Osborne anytime touchdown at plus three seventy odds. What 85 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 3: I really like here is kJ Osborne. He's played twenty 86 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 3: seven games at wide receiver in his career and he 87 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 3: has scored a touchdown in nine of them, so that 88 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 3: is one in three, which would eclate to plus two 89 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 3: hundred odds. We can plus three to seventy here. That's 90 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 3: really nice. Now they do face the New England Patriots, 91 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 3: who are very good against the pass, but New England's 92 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 3: weakest point against the pass is passes over the middle 93 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 3: and passes under fifteen yards well Kirk Cousins. Of course, 94 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 3: for Minnesota, his strength has been over the middle this year. 95 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 3: In sub twenty passes over the middle third of the field, 96 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 3: he has been above average or way above average according 97 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 3: to Next Gen Stats. So definitely like kJ Osborne to 98 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 3: you know, potentially get into the end zone. I think 99 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 3: we're getting a really nice price at plus three seventy. 100 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 1: So my only response to that would be given hell 101 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: multiple we talk about it with Dallas with Minnesota's offense, 102 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: something might be going on with Justin Jefferson and the 103 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 1: tow I guess that could help. But it's a team 104 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: of course that's motivated after only scoring three points last 105 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 1: week against Dallas with New England defensively, Osborne jumps out 106 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 1: to you as far as they just don't cover the 107 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,239 Speaker 1: position well enough over the middle. Yeah, that's correct. 108 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 3: I mean kJ Osborne mostly lines up in the slot 109 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 3: and his average depth of target is sub nine yards. 110 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 3: So with New England struggling to cover the middle of 111 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 3: the field, especially in the shorter portion of that middle 112 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 3: of the field, and that being Kirk Cousins' strength so 113 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 3: far this year, I think it just lines up really 114 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 3: well in terms of a matchup. 115 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:44,239 Speaker 1: Plus. 116 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 3: I mean, you're getting plus three to seventy for a 117 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 3: guy who scored in a third of his games in 118 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 3: his career. 119 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 4: Yeah. And one of the things I was going to 120 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 4: actually add to that, Nick is a lot of people 121 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 4: when they look for touchdown odds and stats, they'll be 122 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,719 Speaker 4: looking at how a team fares against a certain player, 123 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 4: like specifically a position, and a lot of people will 124 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 4: immediately see that the Patriots have given up seven touchdowns 125 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 4: to tight ends this year, so they'll immediately think, oh, 126 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 4: I should bet TJ. 127 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 1: Hawkinson. 128 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 4: Well, the one reason why I would suggest maybe you 129 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 4: don't want to look at Hawk specifically for. 130 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:15,279 Speaker 1: This week one. 131 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 4: He's around plus two hundred to plus two to ten odds, 132 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 4: probably not indicative enough for an implied probability based on 133 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 4: what he would actually do against this defense, but also 134 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,039 Speaker 4: that was specifically over a three game stretch early in 135 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 4: the Earlier in the year, they gave up three touchdowns 136 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 4: to tight ends against the Ravens and then gave up 137 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 4: another two touchdowns too. I believe the Packers as well. 138 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 4: That was over an early part of the stretch where 139 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 4: I think the Patriots overall as a team, we're struggling. 140 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 4: They haven't a lot of touchdown to a tight end 141 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 4: over the last five games, and no touchdown a tight 142 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 4: end has gotten over fifty yards of receiving, so I 143 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:48,919 Speaker 4: would just be a little cautious. I would say this 144 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 4: is the reason why we want to consider kJ in 145 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 4: this spot, because you're getting him around the plus three 146 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 4: to fifty to plus four hundred odds as opposed to Hawk, 147 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 4: whereas the best you might get plus two hundred. 148 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: To legitimate test for the Paideots as well. They've beat 149 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: Zach Wilson twice. They beat up on Jared Goff. Now, 150 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: say what you want about Kirk Cousins in prime time, 151 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: but compared to other quarterbacks the Patriots have faced, Cousins 152 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: actually presents a formidable test for this Patriots defense. Let's 153 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 1: go to Dbundo. His first pick is actually going to 154 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: be in this game too. 155 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm taking the under forty two and a half 156 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 2: right now. 157 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 5: I think the most interesting angle here is that the 158 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 5: New England offense has been one of the worst in 159 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:29,239 Speaker 5: the passing game all season long, and they haven't played 160 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 5: an elite schedule of defenses twenty sixth in passing DVOA. 161 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 5: Definitely concerning Also the Minnesota defense. You know, they got 162 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 5: exposed a little bit last week, but that was against 163 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 5: a multi dimensional offense that can pass and run. I 164 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 5: think the New England offense has been so limited that 165 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 5: it draws a little bit of concern here for their offense. 166 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 5: Minnesota's red zone defense also has been pretty unlucky. They're 167 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 5: the worst red zone defense in the league. We know 168 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 5: that those tend to regress toward means over the course 169 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 5: of the season, so I do think there could be 170 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 5: some positive aggression for this Minnesota red zone defense facing 171 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 5: a New England red zone offense has really struggled to 172 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 5: establish itself. Sadarius Smith did or was a limited participant 173 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 5: in the Monday practice. If they had had one, they 174 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 5: listened to them as limited, so he's trending toward potentially 175 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 5: playing in this game, which would help them get more 176 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 5: pressure on Mac Jones and limit that offense. Bill Belichick 177 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 5: made a really interesting comment saying basically that they had 178 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 5: put some stuff in for the Vikings during the bye 179 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 5: week and started preparing for the Vikings. They got a 180 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 5: little bit of a scheduling advantage because they played the Jets, 181 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 5: then they had the buye, then they played, then they 182 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 5: had another game against the Jets, essentially played them twice 183 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 5: in a month, so they didn't have to do quite 184 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 5: as much prep for that. They got extra time to 185 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 5: get ready for Kirk and Christian Dara saw the left 186 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 5: tackle for the Vikings is concussed in protocol. I would 187 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 5: be very surprised if he was able to come and 188 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 5: play on a short week on Thursday night, So that 189 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 5: would make the Vikings even more conservative, especially after what 190 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 5: happened last week with Kirk getting just crushed by the Cowboys. 191 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: Pass rush. 192 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 5: New England is top five and adjusted sack grate, so 193 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 5: I think that both defenses will win the day here 194 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 5: and it'll be a pretty conservative approach for both offenses, 195 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 5: especially if Darrisol is out because They're not going to 196 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 5: want to expose Kirk to a ton of pressure. That's 197 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 5: where he tends to really struggle, and then New England 198 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 5: can get pressure. So that's literally where I see this 199 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 5: one under. Forty two and a half forty one being 200 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 5: the key number that I would I would no longer 201 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 5: play it at. 202 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: This game does fit the criteria of Thursday Night football. 203 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: Under is seventeen and eight. In the last twenty five 204 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: games on Thursday Night, Bill Belichick has been a covering 205 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: machine as it pertains to the under. He has been 206 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: on the side of the under. That is when you 207 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: see numbers like forty forty two, forty five, well in 208 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: the low sixty to mid seventy percentile. That's courtesy of 209 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 1: our own Evan Abrams, so Belichick in that spot, as 210 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: well as the Patriots offense being quite limited as we've 211 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: been able to tell now through eleven weeks. 212 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 5: Yeah, in New England's defense is number one and dvo way, 213 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 5: I think that is a little bit inflated. 214 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 2: You know you mentioned it. 215 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 5: With the quarterbacks they face, facing Zach Wilson twice, they 216 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 5: got to play Sam Allinger. There was some pretty bad 217 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 5: teams and they got to go up against Bunch. But 218 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 5: Minnesota's offense is not particularly good. When you look at 219 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 5: their play to play numbers, they're right around league average 220 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 5: and most metrics from DBOA to EPA per play. They've 221 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 5: gotten some some fortunate wins that I think have Manye, 222 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 5: people think they're much better than they actually are. I 223 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 5: think the offense has been the main culprit of the 224 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:18,719 Speaker 5: main beneficiary of that. 225 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for mentioning Ellen Ger because it's him, Jacoby Brissett, 226 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: Mitchell Trubisky, I forgot some of the ones that jump out. 227 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: Zach Wilson deserves to be on that list to make no. 228 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,559 Speaker 5: Enestay justin Fields was I guess that was the Fields 229 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,199 Speaker 5: breakout game. But yeah, there's a there's a rough list 230 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 5: of quarterbacks that they've faced, and then that's the modern 231 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 5: NFL This year though, there's like there's only you know, 232 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 5: seven or eight good teams, so you're playing with teams. 233 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: We're gonna stay on Thursday night. Jill's second pick. 234 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, and Dubundo, I think you're right, man. You made 235 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 4: a lot of key points of why I'm leaning to 236 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 4: this pick as well, and why I've made this pick 237 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 4: is that I'm going to be taking the Patriots to 238 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 4: cover the spread and potentially went out right against the 239 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 4: Vikings because, like you were saying, very limited from the past, 240 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 4: but their specialty is running the ball. Blankings are bottom 241 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 4: five and touchdowns allowed by running backs. And over the 242 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 4: last two games, I know that obviously you're facing very 243 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 4: very versatile offenses in both Buffalo and Dallas, but sixty 244 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 4: three points over those last two games, and the key 245 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 4: thing that I thought was more troubling is how many 246 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 4: yards they'd give it up over a thousand yards combined 247 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 4: just running and passing the ball from those two offenses, 248 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 4: especially some offenses that do have some limitations. Maybe I'm 249 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 4: just being a glass half empty Cowboys fan. I just 250 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 4: still think that their offense is a little capped on 251 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 4: some of the things that they can do. But also, 252 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 4: like you just said about the Patriots defense, you know 253 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 4: their top five in sacks and interceptions, and that's kind 254 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 4: of what the Cowboys defense was as well. And you 255 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 4: just saw kind of what happened, especially when Christian Dearis 256 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 4: Law is not playing. They gave up seven sacks to 257 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 4: the Cowboys, like they could not do anything on third down, 258 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 4: and I thought that was a little bit of an 259 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 4: issue where I think actually the Patriots probably saw a 260 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,240 Speaker 4: lot of that and thought that was probably way that 261 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 4: they can exploit this offense. Now, Dalvin Cook only have 262 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 4: allowed four rushing touchdowns all year by the Patriots, so 263 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 4: that's a little bit troubling as well. They ranked top 264 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 4: five in yards and receptions to running backs, you know, 265 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 4: their top five for wide receiver receptions, yards and touchdowns, 266 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 4: so Jefferson and Coke could probably have a difficult time scoring. 267 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 4: That's probably been my biggest thing where I just feel 268 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 4: like this game is a little bit closer. I was 269 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 4: kind of wishing that we could get the three, but 270 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 4: I'll still I would recommend that if you don't like 271 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 4: the two and a half, just take the Patriots outright, 272 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:30,319 Speaker 4: because I do think the Patriots will win this game. 273 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 4: But I got a couple of trends as well from 274 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 4: Evan Abrams. He does a weekly betting prime or for 275 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 4: the Action Network. Also have something up for Thanksgiving, just 276 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 4: so I wanted to list off a couple of these 277 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 4: trends of why I was considering the Patriots. So this 278 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 4: is the fifth fifth time the Belichick has played on Thanksgiving. 279 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 4: He's three and one straight up and against the spread. 280 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 4: They have faced seven teams with a seventy five percent 281 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 4: win percentage on short rest over the last decade. They're 282 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 4: six and one straight up and five and two against 283 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 4: the spread in that spot. 284 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: And the Vikings, this is. 285 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 4: Something that I think you were kind of hinting to 286 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 4: Dubundo as well about how they're kind of mediocre because 287 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 4: they have a negative point differential despite being eight and 288 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 4: two straight up. Over the last fifteen years, Belichick is 289 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,959 Speaker 4: faced eleven teams in November or later who are above 290 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 4: five hundred but have a negative point differential, and those teams, 291 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 4: those opponents are one to nine straight up, zero to 292 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 4: ten against the spread against the Patriots. It's kind of 293 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 4: one of those things that where it just kind of 294 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:24,959 Speaker 4: lines up where I'm not sure if they're going to 295 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 4: be able to do enough where Belichick's kind of defensive 296 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 4: scheme won't necessarily keep them in check. So I do 297 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,439 Speaker 4: think the Patriots will keep this very close. You could 298 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 4: take the plus two and a half as a safer spot, 299 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 4: or you could take the outright win if you're feeling 300 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 4: a little more dangerous. I'm going to take the safeer angle. 301 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 4: I'm going to take the plus two and a half. 302 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: I feel like you almost bury the lead too. Kirk 303 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,959 Speaker 1: Cousins in primetime is just brutal. Ten and eighteen straight up, 304 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 1: eleven and seventeen against the spread. The third least profitable 305 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 1: quarterback on the money line at night in the last 306 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: twenty years, Stafford and Dalton. That's the kind of company 307 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: kirk Cousins holds in this spot. 308 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 2: We do not like champion Matt Stafford. 309 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 1: This is true du Bundel. But of course most of 310 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 1: those numbers in this primetime well, and he's a Thanksgiving quarterback, 311 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 1: as we know Stafford over the years with those Lions. 312 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 1: But they play to start your day when you're just 313 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: getting to the to the relative's home or the grandparents' 314 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: home or wherever you decide to spend your Thanksgiving Day. 315 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, good fruit Stafford putting a super Bowl. 316 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: But that's that was Lion's numbers, Matt Stafford, Nick Giffin, 317 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: let's go back to you second best bet. 318 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna move away from Thanksgiving now and turn 319 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 3: our attention to the weekend. And oh yeah, the leftovers, 320 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: you got to have them. Make sure you got some 321 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 3: leftovers for this game because I'm looking at Tampa Bay 322 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 3: versus Cleveland, and I'm going to take the first half 323 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,119 Speaker 3: under twenty and a half total points. 324 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: There might be a twenty one or a. 325 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 3: Twenty one and a half floating around there, but definitely 326 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:59,359 Speaker 3: like the under here because look at the early forecast 327 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 3: twenty hour wins, oh baby. And if you're a little 328 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 3: uncertain about well, what if the forecast shifts, Well, the 329 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 3: day before is still supposed to be about eleven mile 330 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 3: an hour wins and the day after it's still supposed 331 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 3: to be about fifteen mile an hour wins, So we're 332 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 3: still gonna have a windy day. Also calling for some 333 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 3: rain here, so it could be a sloppy, windy day. 334 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 3: And that's not all. So both Tampa Bay and Cleveland, 335 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 3: believe it or not, actually play faster than the NFL average, 336 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 3: So why am I taking the under. Well, in the 337 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 3: first half they both play a lot slower and then 338 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 3: speed up in the second half in pace of play, 339 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 3: and these stats are courtesy of my predictive analytics colleague, 340 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 3: Billy Ward. But in the first half they actually combined 341 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 3: for about three select three seconds slower then league average, 342 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 3: So you know, you got these teams that are playing 343 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 3: slower in the first half plotting along. Obviously Cleveland's gonna 344 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 3: be running the ball. Tom Brady with his shorter passing, 345 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 3: that's gonna run the clock. And then you also have 346 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 3: the wins the rain potential. So I like this first 347 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 3: half under. The overall total is around forty two and 348 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 3: a half to forty three and a half points, and 349 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 3: so half of that would be like right around twenty one, 350 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 3: so we should be going much lower than that based 351 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 3: off of the pace of play, and of course just 352 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 3: in general, I like the under from the wind here, 353 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 3: So give me the under between Tampa Bay and Cleveland. 354 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: First half, Bucks are laying three and a half of 355 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: the full game, and sort of to Nick's point on 356 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: the full game total, Tampa to the over one to nine. 357 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 1: This season, while they have trended in the right direction, 358 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 1: they've won their last two, still not much offensively. Brady 359 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: is good off of bye and extra rest historically in 360 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 1: his career, and the Browns have been a part of 361 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: a bunch of overs this year. They are seven and three. 362 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: They can thank the Bills last time out for that 363 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: in Detroit to contributing to and over, So that's a 364 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: reflection more of their defense for a run first offense 365 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: with Jacoby Brissett still the quarterback at least for one 366 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 1: more week for the Cleveland Browns, Anthony Dumundo your second 367 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 1: best bet. 368 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers plus two and a 369 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:16,360 Speaker 5: half against my Indianapolis Colts. Look, I love Jeff Saturday 370 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,959 Speaker 5: as a Colts fan. It was a nice couple of weeks, 371 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 5: you know, I bet the Colts both weeks. We cashed 372 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 5: some tickets, almost got a money line in last week 373 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 5: against the Eagles. But now we're laying points, and I 374 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 5: think this is a good time to fade the Saturday 375 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 5: narrative and go against the Colts at home against Pittsburgh, 376 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 5: so primetime home game for the Colts, you know, big 377 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 5: time crowd, whatever. But I think there's reasons to believe 378 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 5: that these two teams are a little bit fraudulent in 379 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 5: their records. At least Pittsburgh has played the toughest schedule 380 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 5: in the NFL, and if you go down their list 381 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 5: of results, it doesn't start to look nearly as bad 382 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 5: when you consider, yes, they were very competitive in the 383 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 5: fourth quarter with Cincinnati. They played Miami close, held their 384 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 5: defense held Miami to sixteen points, which looks better and 385 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 5: better every week, But really this comes down to a 386 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 5: major mismatch along the offensive versus defensive line now that TJ. 387 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 5: Watt is back in wrecking games again, and I think 388 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 5: that that's the biggest concern here. You know, the Colt's 389 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,640 Speaker 5: lines of the past would probably be able to handle 390 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 5: a lot a little bit better, But neither Braden Smith 391 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,439 Speaker 5: nor Bernard Raeman give me much confidence for stopping this 392 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 5: Pittsburgh team. Pittsburgh right around league average and sack rate, 393 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 5: pressure rate, and pass rush win rate, like them a 394 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 5: little more, and a lot of that came without TJ. 395 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 2: Watt in the lineup. He missed a lot of the season. 396 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,479 Speaker 5: So I think Pittsburgh is clearly undervalued. I don't think 397 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 5: they should be an underdog. I think they should be 398 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 5: right around to pick them. And a lot of that 399 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 5: has to do with Matt Ryan too. Like has played 400 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 5: better and when he gets time, he's still a capable 401 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 5: NFL quarterback, but his inability to move in the pocket 402 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 5: I think is going to be a sitting duck for 403 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 5: this Pittsburgh team. 404 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 2: And then they're gonna get a ton. 405 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 5: Of pressure and another week of data on Parks Frasier, 406 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 5: the offensive play caller for Indianapolis, who had never called 407 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 5: plays until two weeks ago. The more and more data 408 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 5: that I think teams get on the Colts and realize 409 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 5: kind of the tendencies, I think, the more likely you're 410 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 5: going to see Fraser get exposed a little bit as 411 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:01,119 Speaker 5: a play caller. 412 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 2: Even in the second half against Philadelphia. 413 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 5: You know, the Colts came out in the first half, 414 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 5: running the ball really well, mixing up play. 415 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 2: Calls very effective. 416 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 5: Second half, the play calling got pretty vanilla, pretty predictable, 417 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 5: and I think Philadelphia was able to kind of expose 418 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 5: some things, and even as a bad run defense was 419 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 5: able to shut down the Colts. So you throw in 420 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 5: the red zone concerns that they've had all season long, 421 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 5: you throw in Saturday being over the conservative in certain 422 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 5: potential game theory, fourth down decision making. 423 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 2: I don't want the Colts as a favorite here. I'm 424 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 2: going to take Pittsburgh with the points now, it's sitting 425 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 2: at two and a half. That's going to be the 426 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 2: official pick. I have not bet it yet. I'm waiting, 427 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 2: hoping to see if we can get a three. It's 428 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 2: kind of in that dead zone. We can get a two. 429 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 5: If it goes to two, I'll bet it then obviously 430 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 5: if it's not going to get to three. There was 431 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,479 Speaker 5: briefly at three and came back. So I think anytime 432 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 5: it gets to three, you're going to see a lot 433 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 5: of Pittsburgh. You know you're gonna get that's gonna get 434 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 5: hammered out right away, so you know, kind of line hawket. 435 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 2: But I will take two and a half. 436 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 5: Also an excellent, excellent teaser option with the total sitting 437 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 5: right around thirty nine and a half. So I took 438 00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 5: it also to I'll take the Steelers and think they're 439 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 5: gonna win out right in Indy. 440 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,920 Speaker 1: We took we're recording this podcast, folks on Tuesday the 441 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 1: twenty second. That game is not until Monday, of course, 442 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 1: Monday night when Saturday plays on his old network on 443 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: National TV. 444 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:16,400 Speaker 5: But Jeff Monday, we saw Jeff Jeff Sunday is too 445 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 5: and now against his spread, we'll see how Jeff Monday does. 446 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: So and he won't be doing NFL Live. Yeah, I'm 447 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 1: glad you brought up the number because it wasn't three 448 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 1: earlier this morning on Tuesday morning. But the money's coming 449 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: in on Pittsburgh Action app has a ninety four percent 450 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: of the money coming in on Pitt So are we 451 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: going to get some twues as opposed to some threes 452 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: or what would what would have to happen? Do you 453 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: do you think for it to come the other way 454 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: that folks think Mike Tomlin, Canny Pickett, they're not as 455 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 1: good as offensively as they were again Cincinnati, what what 456 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 1: what could occur outside of folks betting the other side 457 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 1: for this to get back to three. 458 00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, there's not a ton of injury concerns for the Colts, 459 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,919 Speaker 5: so actually as healthy as that been all season, so 460 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 5: that that is one thing that you know, you don't 461 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 5: expect Colt's injury news, you know, negative or positive to 462 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 5: come out in the next week. I do think that 463 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,120 Speaker 5: you know, you saw those threes, they didn't last that long. 464 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 5: I don't think you're going to see a lot of 465 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 5: threes because yeah, it's it's. 466 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:16,679 Speaker 2: Such a key number. 467 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 5: But you know, again it's asymmetric risk, right, So if 468 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 5: it goes to two, I'm like, Okay, not that big 469 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 5: of a deal because the odds of it landing two 470 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 5: are much lower than three. 471 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 2: But if it gets to three, now I love my 472 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 2: bet on the Steelers. 473 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 1: Okay, fair enough, so we we have shifted gears to Sunday, 474 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: but Jill Gallant has had enough. He wants to go 475 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: back to Turkey Day. Third best bet. 476 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is definitely the Turkey Neck of bets 477 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 4: because it's kind of gress. This is Bills Lions game, 478 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 4: and I'm going to take a team total and I'm 479 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 4: taking an under under thirty one and a half for 480 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:49,720 Speaker 4: the Bills. 481 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 1: And you know, you look. 482 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 4: At that offense and immediately somebody says they're going to 483 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 4: score less than thirty one and a half points against 484 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,679 Speaker 4: the lines, You're going to say, Jill, you're crazy. 485 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: But they've only talked this. 486 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 4: Number twice in ten games. They're seventeenth. The Bills are 487 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 4: seventeenth in the NFL in second half points per game 488 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 4: as well. They're the type of team they get off 489 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 4: to a really fast start and then you know they're leading, 490 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 4: and then they just kind of coast. They're second in 491 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 4: the NFL in first half points per game. It drops 492 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 4: to about seventeenth in the second half. Now, the Lions 493 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 4: for the season are twenty ninth and second half points 494 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 4: per game allowed, but over their last five games. Over 495 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,919 Speaker 4: this last stretch where they won a few. That's actually 496 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 4: down to about eleven point six, which is in the 497 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 4: top ten in the NFL. Thirty one is kind of 498 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 4: the key number here because it's going to be very close. 499 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 4: The Bills are finished with thirty one versus the Browns, 500 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 4: thirties versus the Vikings, twenty seven versus the Packers, thirty 501 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 4: one versus the Rams in Week one, but it's clearly 502 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 4: the key number there because once they kind of get 503 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:44,639 Speaker 4: to that spot, I think that's kind of where it 504 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 4: slows down. The Lions have also been really leaning on 505 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 4: their run game, like Jamal Williams him having three touchdowns 506 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 4: this past week. I don't think that was a coincidence. 507 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 4: Their sixth in NFL rush attempts per game. That's just 508 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 4: going to bleed that clock. And they're the type of 509 00:22:58,359 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 4: team as well. I think they're going to try to 510 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 4: steal a to ablished the run, even though they'll probably 511 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 4: get stuffed a lot on first and second down against 512 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 4: this team. And if the Lions, if they could just 513 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 4: contain the Bills again very big. If if they can 514 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 4: contain the Bills just a little bit in the first half, 515 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 4: I think this total will go under now, also do 516 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 4: have a little bit of a bonus player prop pick 517 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 4: that I would consider for this game as well. Right now, 518 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 4: just check out FanDuel odds. Josh Allen's over under rushing 519 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,880 Speaker 4: yards is at forty one and a half. Very good 520 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 4: number here because he has rushed for at least forty 521 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 4: two yards in seven of ten games this season and 522 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,919 Speaker 4: dating back to last year, eleven of fourteen games overall. 523 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 4: And if you just look to see how quarterbacks fare 524 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,360 Speaker 4: against the Lions, they are last and rushing yards allowed 525 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,120 Speaker 4: to the quarterback position. So I would be considering Josh 526 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 4: Allen for rush yards in this game along with their 527 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 4: team total of under thirty one and a half. 528 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,439 Speaker 1: How about this. The Bills played on Thanksgiving Night last 529 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: year against the New Orleans Saints. Final score Bills thirty one, 530 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: Saints six, So that would get you're under. Josh Allen 531 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,159 Speaker 1: ran for forty three yards. 532 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 2: I'm telling you pretty fun. It's coming. Sounds like a 533 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 2: lot of sweating. 534 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 1: Now, that's a Saints defense. Historically we've respected. We're putting 535 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 1: the Saints now or asking the Lions to live up 536 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: to the expectations of a good Saints team, and the 537 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 1: Saints allowed thirty one. Well, the Lions, the Bills. 538 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,360 Speaker 5: Red zone issues seem seem real, like they just can't 539 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 5: run the ball whatsoever. 540 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,400 Speaker 2: Right, and so you know, and everything gets. 541 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 5: So compact and they seem real. But like eventually you 542 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 5: think they're gonna figure it out. But if they don't, 543 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,200 Speaker 5: like it's a field goal fast and they go under again. 544 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 1: Can we get fooled too? Because if you have Devin 545 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,120 Speaker 1: Singletary and your fantasy team, that's awesome, that's great, good 546 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 1: for you. The last two weeks he's scored touchdowns and 547 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 1: he's scoring fantasy points. But they don't really have a 548 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,160 Speaker 1: running game, I would agree to bundo. They're not very multiple, 549 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 1: as we've used. We've used that word a few times 550 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 1: now for this game Thanksgiving game Slate, like the vikings. 551 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 3: On, we have a stat on the Bills and you know, 552 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 3: scoring thirty one points in the Dome because last week 553 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 3: Ford Field they scored thirty one points, and you talked 554 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 3: about last year at New Orleans thirty one points. It's 555 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 3: got to be something there there. 556 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: You go, all right, Well, I mean it makes sense 557 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 1: why the number is set where it is at thirty 558 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,919 Speaker 1: one and a half. Strong play by Jill hopefully, but 559 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,120 Speaker 1: it's compelling, that's for sure. Nick Giffin, your second your 560 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 1: final best bet, pardon me final best bet? 561 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:24,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, I am actually going to go back to Sunday 562 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 3: and Sunday Night actually, and I'm going to go with 563 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 3: the Green Bay Packers plus seven versus the Philadelphia Eagles. 564 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 3: And this might actually be my favorite play of the 565 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 3: bunch of the three I've given out. 566 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:38,120 Speaker 1: Now. 567 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 3: First, of all our NFL luck rankings at the Action Network, 568 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 3: this is the number one luck ranking matchup. Green Bay 569 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 3: is twenty seventh in our luck rankings, will Philadelphia is 570 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 3: number two in our luck rankings. That's a difference of 571 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 3: twenty five places. Teams that are at least sixteen places 572 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 3: more unlucky than their opponent are hitting at around a 573 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,160 Speaker 3: fifty seven percent clip this year against the. 574 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: Spread, So definitely like that. 575 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 3: But also when we look at something called third order 576 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 3: Pythagorean win percentage, which is one of the most effective 577 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 3: measures of team strength that you can get at a 578 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:20,120 Speaker 3: neutral field, Philly should only be around a two point favorite. 579 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 3: Now Philly is at home, but that's not enough to 580 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 3: make it up to plus seven. Then also consider this, 581 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 3: green Bay's strength this year has actually been running the 582 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,960 Speaker 3: ball and Philadelphia is a run funnel defense and they've 583 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 3: really been exposed in recent weeks. On the ground. Philadelphia's 584 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:40,920 Speaker 3: third and passing defense DVOA, but twenty six in rush 585 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 3: defense DVOA. And to add to that, Green Bay actually 586 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 3: is a rush funnel themselves, so there could be a 587 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 3: whole lot of running in this game, keeping the total down, 588 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 3: which should keep things a little bit closer. And one 589 00:26:55,600 --> 00:27:00,239 Speaker 3: final little kicker here, Green Bay is sorry Philadelphia is 590 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 3: missing their first round pick, defensive tackle Jason Davis. He's been, 591 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 3: you know, in on about thirty to forty percent of 592 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 3: snapswing he's been playing this year, but he hasn't played 593 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,600 Speaker 3: the last few weeks and he'll be out again, so 594 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 3: certainly that's maybe a little underrated aspect here. Obviously, Philadelphia 595 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 3: didn't cover versus Washington, didn't cover versus Indy. I think 596 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 3: we're going to see three in a row here where 597 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 3: Philadelphia fails to cover it. Instead, Green Bay covers at 598 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:28,920 Speaker 3: plus seven. 599 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 1: So to your point, total feels high forty six and 600 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 1: a half points. It's a total at night. Unders at 601 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: night have been rolling unders all together has been good. 602 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers did cover a big spread at home Sunday 603 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: night against Buffalo at the biggest underdog of his career 604 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 1: in his career against Philly, five and one straight up 605 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 1: and against the spread. In Philly, He's three and zero 606 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: against the number and straight up. So there are some 607 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 1: trends and Rogers typically, as we discussed with that Bills game, 608 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,439 Speaker 1: he performs well against the spread forty one twenty eight 609 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: and two against spread Aaron Rodgers at night. So, and 610 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 1: how good is Philly? It's kind of back to what 611 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:07,520 Speaker 1: we said about they're better than Minnesota. I think we 612 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,439 Speaker 1: can all agree there. But how much better is Philly 613 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 1: than Green Bay? Definitely better? But how much better? And 614 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 1: you think it's two based on those luck rankings? 615 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 3: Okaytrol Field definitely two for sure? 616 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,200 Speaker 1: All right, du bundo take us home final best bet? 617 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 2: Yeah? 618 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 1: I agree. 619 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,360 Speaker 5: I actually have the Eagles third best in the NFC, 620 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 5: behind the Niners and the Cowboys. Now, so I think 621 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:30,879 Speaker 5: that the Eagles have gotten exposed a little bit, and 622 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 5: the main reason they've gotten exposed it is the defense. 623 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,400 Speaker 1: Their run success rate. 624 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 5: Is thirty second in the NFL, dead last, the worst 625 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 5: against the run. We saw it with Damian Pierce there's 626 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 5: Ay night football against Houston. We saw it with the 627 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 5: Commanders two weeks ago, and the Colts in the first 628 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,719 Speaker 5: half were able to run the ball very effectively, and 629 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 5: like you mentioned, Davis is out very big red flag. 630 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 5: They've signed Linval Joseph and Dominican Sue. They were okay 631 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 5: but not great, and they're still like you mentioned, the 632 00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 5: run final defense. It's the scheme that's part of the 633 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 5: problem too. The other thing, the Eagles defense doesn't do 634 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 5: as well on early downs as it is in late downs, 635 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 5: and I think that that's a little bit concerning too. 636 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 5: They're outside the top five in drop back success rate 637 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 5: on early downs, so there could be a little bit 638 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 5: of regression coming. But also I just think the Packers 639 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,080 Speaker 5: and we would run the ball very effectively here. 640 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 2: I agree with Nick on. 641 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 5: The plus seven, but I'm also going to bet the 642 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 5: team total over nineteen and a half points for Green Bay. 643 00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 5: I do think they'll have success running the ball, and 644 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 5: I think that will set them up to have success. 645 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 2: Going further down the field in this game. 646 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 5: And I know Rogers has not been great, and you 647 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 5: know you're looking at your you know you're watching the game, 648 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 5: and you know he's missing open receivers like that was 649 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 5: pretty evident in the game against Tennessee. They did get 650 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 5: extra rest here, so it's a it's basically like a 651 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 5: bye week because they you know, they played Thursday night 652 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 5: and they don't play again until you know, Sunday, so 653 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 5: it's like a half buy. But here's a list of 654 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,719 Speaker 5: the quarterbacks that the Eagles have faced that their elite 655 00:29:55,800 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 5: pass rush or pass defense is faced this year. Wentz, 656 00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence in Rainstorm and nobody could throw the ball, Kyler, Murray, 657 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 5: Cooper Rush. Can you Pickett Rookie, Davis Mills, Taylor Heineke, 658 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 5: Matt Ryan, so not one of those quarterbacks who are 659 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 5: any of those quarterbacks above average? Jared Seas right and 660 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 5: Jared Goff, yes, and then Kirk Cousins, but they got 661 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 5: iced up by golf. So you know, since they've started 662 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 5: playing better, the pass defense I think is a little 663 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 5: bit overrated because of that schedule. They've played a lot 664 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 5: of bad quarterbacks and so I think we saw Heineke 665 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 5: have success. 666 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 2: I think we're gonna see Rogers have a lot of success. 667 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,239 Speaker 2: So I like the team total over as well as 668 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 2: the plus seven. I'll be betting both. 669 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 1: Wow, that schedule. I mean, that's been the theme all 670 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 1: year really for that division is look at the schedule. 671 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 1: These teams have to. 672 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 5: Play or they have They've they all, they've all, they've 673 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 5: all been beating up on the on the AFC South, true, 674 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 5: which which is nice. You know, Jacksonville, Houston and Indye 675 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 5: three wins for the Eagles, but yeah, I mean even 676 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 5: the you know, Pittsburgh Houston and then you know they 677 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 5: get the divisional game against Washington with Wentz and then 678 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:07,719 Speaker 5: they lose to Heineke. 679 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 2: This could be four straight covers for the Eagles opponents. 680 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 2: I think that they've reached the point in the market 681 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 2: where they're very inflated. 682 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 1: Okay, I think that's it. Fellas great stuff, have a 683 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,720 Speaker 1: great Thanksgiving, and by the way, thanks to Nick Giffin 684 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 1: Dubundo being here. Brandon Anderson and Luke Swain out this week. 685 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 1: But let's recap the picks before we say goodbye. Joe 686 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 1: Gillot is on Dak Prescott anytime touchdown score you can 687 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 1: find him around plus four hundred at FanDuel Patriots plus 688 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:39,680 Speaker 1: two and a half. Buffalo Bill's team total under thirty 689 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 1: one and a half all Thanksgiving picks from Jill Nick 690 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 1: is on kJ Osborne of the Vikings anytime touchdown plus 691 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,320 Speaker 1: three seventy the current odds over at FanDuel Tampa Bay 692 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 1: and Cleveland. They play Sunday first half under twenty and 693 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 1: a half. That's even money right now on the FanDuel sportsbook, 694 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 1: and he's on Green Bay plus seven Sunday Night. Anthony 695 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,400 Speaker 1: Dbundo likes the new England Minnesota under forty two and 696 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 1: a half. He's also on Pittsburgh plus two and a 697 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: half that's Monday night, and then we go back to 698 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 1: Sunday Night Green Bay team total over nineteen and a half. 699 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 1: All basically primetime spots. This is fun. Thursday, Sunday night football, 700 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: Monday night football. Good deal that's going to do it. 701 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 1: Here for the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week 702 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 1: twelve Best Bets episode, presented by Fandel. Thanks to Jill 703 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 1: Nick and Dubundo for joining us. I'm Brendan glass Sheen, 704 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 1: best of Block. You all have a great Thanksgiving, enjoy 705 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 1: the games, win some money. We're extremely thankful for all 706 00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 1: of you tuning into the show. We'll be back Monday 707 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 1: morning with the recap episode right here on the Action 708 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:43,080 Speaker 1: Network podcast 709 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 3: Happy Thanksgiving Gamblers, We're thankful for you.