WEBVTT - Episode 18: Will Your Job Disappear by 2024?

0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:03.360
<v Speaker 1>Let's say I'm squeamish. I don't like to see blood.

0:00:03.760 --> 0:00:07.240
<v Speaker 1>I get a bit uneasy around sick people makes me sad.

0:00:07.920 --> 0:00:11.039
<v Speaker 1>So what else could I do when I get old?

0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:18.000
<v Speaker 1>This episode is brought to you by nat X, the

0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:21.440
<v Speaker 1>Binary Options Exchange. Binary options let you limit your risk

0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.200
<v Speaker 1>and trade stock in dissees, commodities for x and more

0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.760
<v Speaker 1>from a single account. Nat X is a CFTC regulated

0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:32.600
<v Speaker 1>exchange with transparency, free market data, and fairness guarantee. The

0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:35.040
<v Speaker 1>future of trading is here now at n A d

0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:38.360
<v Speaker 1>e X, dot com, futures, options and spots. Trading involves

0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:48.640
<v Speaker 1>risk and may not be appropriate for all investors. Hi,

0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:51.640
<v Speaker 1>and welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark, a podcast about the

0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:56.360
<v Speaker 1>global economy. It is Wednesday, December. I'm Tori Stiwell and

0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:59.800
<v Speaker 1>economics reporter with Bloomberg News, and I am in New

0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:04.120
<v Speaker 1>York work today with Dan Moss. And we're also joined

0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:08.600
<v Speaker 1>by Aki Edo, our editor for Benchmark in San Francisco. Guys, Hiaki,

0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.600
<v Speaker 1>are you feeling all lonesome out there? I am, I am,

0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.480
<v Speaker 1>I wish. Yeah. We're having a big party here in

0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:19.920
<v Speaker 1>New York with the producers Crazy. Today we're going to

0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:23.200
<v Speaker 1>be looking forward, not just next year, but to the

0:01:23.319 --> 0:01:27.200
<v Speaker 1>coming decade. We're going to offer everyone a sneak preview

0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:31.000
<v Speaker 1>far out into the future. What does the American labor

0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:33.920
<v Speaker 1>market look like a decade from now? And we have

0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.280
<v Speaker 1>a great guide with us, which is this giant set

0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:39.920
<v Speaker 1>of projections that the US Labor Department published this month.

0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:42.880
<v Speaker 1>It's got info on the fate of hundreds of different

0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:46.319
<v Speaker 1>kinds of jobs by the year, and it's a pretty

0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:49.320
<v Speaker 1>fascinating look into the future. Gosh, I just love this report.

0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:52.320
<v Speaker 1>I've used it for my own reporting, and I like

0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:55.240
<v Speaker 1>it for myself to you know, thinking about where I

0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:58.680
<v Speaker 1>want my own career to go. Uh Tori, what will

0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:03.640
<v Speaker 1>your life look like? And ideally I will be on

0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:11.239
<v Speaker 1>a farm making homemade cheese. And that's the dream just

0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:16.080
<v Speaker 1>in overalls, Yeah, retirement at age six. Now I'm going

0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:20.760
<v Speaker 1>to be a farmer. I'm gonnas how farmers are going

0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:24.399
<v Speaker 1>to do real quick? Farmers are going to lose jobs. Yeah, yeah,

0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:28.240
<v Speaker 1>we're moving away from an agricultural economy. You'll be one

0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.359
<v Speaker 1>of the very few. You'll be really special, excellent, It'll

0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:35.600
<v Speaker 1>be like an artisanal farm. To help us make sense

0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:39.320
<v Speaker 1>of this brave new world, and we have Heidi Sherholtz

0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:41.799
<v Speaker 1>on the line. She is the chief economist at the

0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:45.840
<v Speaker 1>Labor Department. Hello Heidi, Hi, thank you for having me. Heidi.

0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.720
<v Speaker 1>This is a huge report that you guys have put out.

0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:52.560
<v Speaker 1>So let's start with very broad, five thousand foot view

0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.959
<v Speaker 1>of the labor market. What are the main changes that

0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:58.480
<v Speaker 1>we are going to see in the demographic makeup of

0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:03.079
<v Speaker 1>our workforce over the next nine tennis years. Yeah. So

0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:06.679
<v Speaker 1>this is the report that the Bureau of Labor Statistics

0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:10.320
<v Speaker 1>puts out every two years where they do these massive

0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:13.840
<v Speaker 1>projections of what employment will be like for the next

0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.600
<v Speaker 1>ten years. They look at not just occupations and industries

0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:21.440
<v Speaker 1>that will be growing, but also demographic changes. And one

0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:24.440
<v Speaker 1>of the sort of the theme we see from these

0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:29.000
<v Speaker 1>numbers is not a surprise. The labor force is going

0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:33.120
<v Speaker 1>to continue to get older. We're seeing more of the

0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:36.840
<v Speaker 1>just broad aging of the population that will sort of

0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:39.560
<v Speaker 1>start tapering off at the end of this window, at

0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:42.000
<v Speaker 1>the end of this tenure window they're looking at, but

0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.080
<v Speaker 1>we are seeing the labor force continuing to get older.

0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.080
<v Speaker 1>And then the other thing that we're seeing is increasing

0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:51.760
<v Speaker 1>diversity of the labor force. We see bigger share of

0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:54.680
<v Speaker 1>the labor force are racial un ethnic minorities, and so

0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:59.480
<v Speaker 1>those two key things are sort of important dynamics going forward.

0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:02.280
<v Speaker 1>And one one thing I should say though, is none

0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:08.000
<v Speaker 1>of that is changing incredibly rapidly. Deetographic trends tend to

0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:10.520
<v Speaker 1>move pretty slowly, but that's the direction they're going in

0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:12.520
<v Speaker 1>right now. I want to I want to zoom in

0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:15.280
<v Speaker 1>on the on the kind of aging piece of this

0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.320
<v Speaker 1>because I thought it was really interesting in the report,

0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:20.719
<v Speaker 1>you guys say that the labor force participation rate, which

0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:23.880
<v Speaker 1>is the share of the working age population that is

0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:27.000
<v Speaker 1>either employed or at least looking for a job, that

0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:30.600
<v Speaker 1>rate for the sixty five years old and older age

0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:35.440
<v Speaker 1>group is going to rise to one point seven percent

0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:37.919
<v Speaker 1>from eighteen point six percent. And I think that's just

0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:40.560
<v Speaker 1>it's astounding. It's a it's a really big increase in

0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:43.920
<v Speaker 1>I think really illustrates what you just said very well. Yeah,

0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:47.840
<v Speaker 1>it's a fascinating dynamic. So we see workers workers who

0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:50.640
<v Speaker 1>are older or people who are older are more likely

0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:53.000
<v Speaker 1>to be in the labor force than they used to be,

0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:56.360
<v Speaker 1>and that trend is continuing. So some of that so

0:04:56.440 --> 0:05:01.800
<v Speaker 1>we're never going to retire at all. I do I

0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:04.640
<v Speaker 1>do plan on retiring myself, and I believe you all

0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:06.839
<v Speaker 1>will also be able to have a period of retirement.

0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:10.640
<v Speaker 1>But people are um starting to delay that more than

0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:15.200
<v Speaker 1>they used to. So we're starting to see workers over

0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:18.640
<v Speaker 1>age sixty five and larger numbers continue being in the

0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:21.840
<v Speaker 1>labor force. But you will note those numbers you cited

0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:25.240
<v Speaker 1>are still quite low. It's not like they're compared to

0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:29.600
<v Speaker 1>younger workers. Yes, and one of the dynamics we're seeing

0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:34.680
<v Speaker 1>is the um the overall labor force participation rate is

0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:38.880
<v Speaker 1>actually dropping. Interestingly enough, because when you even though you

0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:43.000
<v Speaker 1>have this increase in labor force participation of older workers,

0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:47.440
<v Speaker 1>their overall numbers are lower. It's growing, but from sort

0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.880
<v Speaker 1>of a very low base. And so as we have

0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.840
<v Speaker 1>the aging of the workforce, you're aging people into this

0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:58.360
<v Speaker 1>category that has a lower labor force participation rate. Let's

0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:01.640
<v Speaker 1>talk about this older population, and you know, as our

0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:05.560
<v Speaker 1>population ages, that really means that some jobs are going

0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.240
<v Speaker 1>to be in huge amen and other jobs aren't going

0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.400
<v Speaker 1>to be in demand at all. So, Dan, do you

0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:12.960
<v Speaker 1>want to walk us through some of those numbers. We'll

0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:17.279
<v Speaker 1>be seeing big increases in healthcare across the board. Someone

0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:20.560
<v Speaker 1>has to take care of this aging population. The job

0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:23.200
<v Speaker 1>that's going to see the most growth over the next

0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:27.600
<v Speaker 1>decade is a thing called personal care aids. These are

0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:31.680
<v Speaker 1>people who take care of everyday stuff when you can't

0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:35.360
<v Speaker 1>do it yourself. This job is going to employ almost

0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:39.680
<v Speaker 1>half a million more people in compared with last year.

0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:41.839
<v Speaker 1>That's a lot of people. And there are tons of

0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:44.280
<v Speaker 1>other jobs in healthcare that are also going to win

0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:49.840
<v Speaker 1>pretty big registered nurses, home health aids, nursing assistance, medical assistance.

0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:55.040
<v Speaker 1>So let's say I'm squeamish. I don't like to see blood.

0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:58.880
<v Speaker 1>I get a bit uneasy around sick people. Makes me sad.

0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:04.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, I'm not a huge guy in terms of

0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:09.400
<v Speaker 1>guzzling medicine or administering medicine. So what else could I

0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:12.600
<v Speaker 1>do when I get old? We've got other jobs for you,

0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:17.680
<v Speaker 1>I promise, Thank god there are You were really emphatic there.

0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:21.720
<v Speaker 1>That was great. Over the next ten years, it's expected

0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:25.840
<v Speaker 1>that will add almost ten million jobs. Around a quarter

0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:28.560
<v Speaker 1>of those jobs are indeed expected to be in healthcare,

0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:31.160
<v Speaker 1>so that's a huge share, but it's still only a

0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:34.320
<v Speaker 1>quarter of those jobs. So even though it's a fast

0:07:34.360 --> 0:07:37.000
<v Speaker 1>growing industry, there's going to be a lot of other

0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:39.960
<v Speaker 1>jobs growing. So there's a lot of other jobs. There's

0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:42.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of other high paying jobs that are going

0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:45.960
<v Speaker 1>to be added. Outside of the health care industry. You

0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:49.080
<v Speaker 1>see a lot of growth and business and financial operations,

0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:54.880
<v Speaker 1>computer and mathematics occupations, management occupations. One of the category

0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:58.120
<v Speaker 1>that's growing strongly that is a good paying job that

0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:02.320
<v Speaker 1>doesn't necessarily require a college degree are installation, maintenance and

0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:06.280
<v Speaker 1>repair occupations. And that's one of the categories where the

0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:09.720
<v Speaker 1>aging of the workforce factors in. Is that like the

0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:12.040
<v Speaker 1>guy who comes in and puts in your cable box

0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:15.400
<v Speaker 1>at his or the plumber who comes in and compares

0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:18.560
<v Speaker 1>that that when you sort of think of installation and repair,

0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:22.880
<v Speaker 1>that that's a catch all for all of those skilled,

0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:26.440
<v Speaker 1>in many cases very skilled trades. And we're seeing many

0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:30.040
<v Speaker 1>of the workers in those jobs are getting older and

0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:33.760
<v Speaker 1>so as you see retirements happening, it's going to open

0:08:33.840 --> 0:08:35.520
<v Speaker 1>up a lot of jobs. And I just have to

0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:38.560
<v Speaker 1>mention this category because it's jumping out of me. You've

0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:43.320
<v Speaker 1>listed as an industry offices of dentists and they're supposed

0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:46.720
<v Speaker 1>to do really well. Yeah, I don't have anything specific

0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:49.679
<v Speaker 1>to say about the offices of that dis although one

0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:51.320
<v Speaker 1>thing I can say is that now that I've become

0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:54.480
<v Speaker 1>chief Economists at the Department of Labor, the job involves

0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:57.000
<v Speaker 1>such stress that I now grind my teeth at night.

0:08:57.280 --> 0:08:59.960
<v Speaker 1>Did you get a nightguard? I have a nightguard. Now

0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:04.760
<v Speaker 1>help health employ more than this, But I, UM, I

0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.560
<v Speaker 1>do think it's part of the broader We're going to

0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:10.480
<v Speaker 1>need more people in healthcare. I like. I also like

0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:15.119
<v Speaker 1>the occupation you guys have here. It's the fastest growing occupation,

0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:18.160
<v Speaker 1>even though it employees a relatively small number of people,

0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:23.320
<v Speaker 1>wind turbine service technicians. That makes me so the story

0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:26.440
<v Speaker 1>behind that. You're right, it's small, but it sticks out

0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:30.840
<v Speaker 1>as the fastest. Yeah, it is because it's been around

0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.360
<v Speaker 1>ten or so years when we started, since we started

0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:36.760
<v Speaker 1>to see a big investment in wind turbine and now

0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:39.880
<v Speaker 1>they're coming due for repair, and so we're we are

0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:42.280
<v Speaker 1>now seeing we're going to continue to see the need

0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:46.160
<v Speaker 1>for more of those of repair technicians. That's interesting because

0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:49.520
<v Speaker 1>I still think of them as being a failing new phenomenon.

0:09:49.600 --> 0:09:53.040
<v Speaker 1>But you're signing the replacement cycles already here. Yeah, we've

0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:56.520
<v Speaker 1>really we started to see, um that investment pick up

0:09:56.720 --> 0:09:59.360
<v Speaker 1>five ten years ago. So over the next ten years

0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:04.080
<v Speaker 1>they're gonna start to need to be fixed. Let's let's

0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:08.400
<v Speaker 1>bum everyone out for one second. Which jobs are disappearing

0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:11.400
<v Speaker 1>a CD of those numbers for us? Yeah, so the

0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.400
<v Speaker 1>postal service as an industry is going to lose a

0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:18.839
<v Speaker 1>whole lot a hundred and sixty five thousand jobs. Uh,

0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:21.240
<v Speaker 1>and we're probably going to see really big losses in

0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:24.600
<v Speaker 1>the number of federal government jobs. To other than that,

0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:28.560
<v Speaker 1>our economy is going to continue to make more progress

0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:31.960
<v Speaker 1>into becoming a service oriented economy. So we're gonna lose

0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:34.960
<v Speaker 1>a lot of manufacturing jobs. Um, these jobs are going

0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:38.120
<v Speaker 1>to move to countries with cheaper labor, or they're going

0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:42.240
<v Speaker 1>to be replaced by robots altogether, HAIDI. I worry that

0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:45.400
<v Speaker 1>we may already know the answer to this, but we've

0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:48.960
<v Speaker 1>got to ask anyway, what do our prospects as journalists

0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:53.560
<v Speaker 1>look like? So one of the journalists, it's tricky. It

0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:57.840
<v Speaker 1>is one of those industries where it's evolving so quickly

0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.640
<v Speaker 1>that one way people consume news to day may not

0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:02.760
<v Speaker 1>be the way they consume news the next day. But

0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:06.920
<v Speaker 1>I think the key thing is they're still consuming news

0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:09.520
<v Speaker 1>like you know, people are always going to be hungry

0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:13.480
<v Speaker 1>for the information, and so you guys are doing the

0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:17.560
<v Speaker 1>right thing by being creative about different ways to try

0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.720
<v Speaker 1>to get the news to people. Are not like regular

0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:24.959
<v Speaker 1>journalists were cool journals you are. I think she's saying

0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:30.680
<v Speaker 1>we're lucky we were exactly. Well that's a ringing endorsement

0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:34.760
<v Speaker 1>from the US government itself. Yeah, well, we've gone through

0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:38.000
<v Speaker 1>lots of winners and losers. Let's jump into a broader

0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.760
<v Speaker 1>discussion about the future of the job market and what

0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:43.040
<v Speaker 1>we can do to be ready for that future. After

0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:50.679
<v Speaker 1>a word from our sponsor, what do traders want to

0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:53.760
<v Speaker 1>limit risk? Access every opportunity and trade on a level

0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.560
<v Speaker 1>playing field. Nate x binary options let you set your

0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:59.120
<v Speaker 1>maximum profit and loss before the trade, so your risk

0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:03.760
<v Speaker 1>is always limited. Find opportunities in multiple markets, stock indussees, commodities, forks,

0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:08.280
<v Speaker 1>even economic numbers, and bitcoin, all from one account and platform.

0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:11.880
<v Speaker 1>Nat x is a CSTC regulated exchange with transparency, free

0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:16.559
<v Speaker 1>market data, and fairness guaranteed innovations of financial industry needs

0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:19.360
<v Speaker 1>and nat X already has. That's why we think binary

0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.200
<v Speaker 1>options are the future of trading, and it's here now

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.400
<v Speaker 1>at n A d e X dot com. Futures options

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:27.600
<v Speaker 1>and swaps. Trading involves risk and may not be appropriate

0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:35.280
<v Speaker 1>for all investors. So in a previous episode, we talked

0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:40.640
<v Speaker 1>about how advances and artificial intelligence are allowing engineers to

0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.880
<v Speaker 1>make software do all these things that only humans could

0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 1>do before. And one of my pet favorites has been

0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.720
<v Speaker 1>driverless cars because I don't really like driving and this

0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:55.560
<v Speaker 1>would presumably displace human taxi drivers. So Heidi, you know,

0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:59.080
<v Speaker 1>what are your thoughts on the technological progress that we've

0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.360
<v Speaker 1>seen so far are and it's impact on the job

0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:05.079
<v Speaker 1>market and where do you think that's going. So while

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:09.439
<v Speaker 1>I remain extremely excited about the prospect of driverless cars,

0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:13.120
<v Speaker 1>I do think that there's an important context for thinking

0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:16.800
<v Speaker 1>about how fast things are changing right now. There's a

0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:20.960
<v Speaker 1>sort of breathless conversation out there about this pace of change,

0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.120
<v Speaker 1>But there's actually a way we can look at, like

0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:27.160
<v Speaker 1>like sort of measure how fast things are changing, and

0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:32.600
<v Speaker 1>it's productivity growth. So if robots really were stealing all

0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.840
<v Speaker 1>our jobs, that means that before something that took you know,

0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.240
<v Speaker 1>ten people to do, now it takes one person to

0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:41.320
<v Speaker 1>sort of supervise for lack of a better word, ten

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:45.719
<v Speaker 1>robots and so that one human hour of work they

0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:48.240
<v Speaker 1>get the same amount done, where before it took ten

0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.560
<v Speaker 1>human hours to do the work. So that kind of

0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:57.960
<v Speaker 1>scenario describes a big acceleration of productivity growth. But if

0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:04.280
<v Speaker 1>you look historically, productivity has typically grown around two percent

0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.400
<v Speaker 1>per year. It's sometimes faster, sometimes slower, but that's sort

0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:11.439
<v Speaker 1>of been its long run growth rate. It is, if anything,

0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:15.080
<v Speaker 1>a little slower than that over the last ten years

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:19.000
<v Speaker 1>than it was before. So we are not seeing a

0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:23.520
<v Speaker 1>massive acceleration and productivity growth that would signal that robots

0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:25.960
<v Speaker 1>were stealing all of our jobs. And our listeners will

0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.480
<v Speaker 1>know from our very first episode it is the US

0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:34.960
<v Speaker 1>economies silent menace. Yeah, I I. One of the things

0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:38.760
<v Speaker 1>about that long run productivity growth is that that's happened

0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 1>in times of prosperity and times of recessions, but that

0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:46.680
<v Speaker 1>but mostly it's happened in times of prosperity. In times

0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 1>of prosperity is when there's a lot of innovation going on,

0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>and productivity tends to accelerate because there's sort of a

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:56.280
<v Speaker 1>lot of action out there and investments and innovation and

0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.720
<v Speaker 1>people people having the opportunity to try new things that

0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:03.640
<v Speaker 1>can lead to productivity growth um that goes hand in

0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 1>hand with a lot of job growth, a lot of

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:10.760
<v Speaker 1>good things happening, So it doesn't necessarily spell it doesn't

0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:15.800
<v Speaker 1>in my view, productivity growth doesn't spell menace. Um. You know,

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:20.400
<v Speaker 1>robots will steal some jobs, but the people who then

0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 1>benefit from that productivity growth have more income. They buy

0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:27.560
<v Speaker 1>nude things that generates demand for other things that people

0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 1>get employed in other places. So there's there's sort of

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:34.360
<v Speaker 1>there could be adjustment pain as there's one occupation or

0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:39.000
<v Speaker 1>industry that gets subsumed by robots, but it, you know,

0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:41.560
<v Speaker 1>it sort of balloons out elsewhere and there's something else

0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 1>at growth. One thing I thought was really interesting in

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:50.080
<v Speaker 1>projections is participation by youth in the labor force. So

0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:55.160
<v Speaker 1>people ages sixteen to twenty four, and right now they

0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:59.040
<v Speaker 1>make up about almost four of the labor force, but

0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:02.880
<v Speaker 1>that's projected to decrease. So I think it's it's fascinating

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:06.000
<v Speaker 1>You've got this dynamic where the participation by older adults

0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:09.400
<v Speaker 1>is increasing and the participation by the youngest adults is decreasing.

0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.200
<v Speaker 1>What's going on there? Shouldn't the the young ones be

0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 1>the ones that are most highly engaged? Is it's solely

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.800
<v Speaker 1>because they're going to college. What what's what's thee you

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:23.000
<v Speaker 1>put your finger on it. So the UM the there's

0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.760
<v Speaker 1>been a long term decline in labor force participation of

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:30.000
<v Speaker 1>younger people, workers under the age of people under the

0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 1>age of and that is a huge chunk of that

0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:37.840
<v Speaker 1>is attributable to people staying in school longer. So it's people.

0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:40.600
<v Speaker 1>You know, even high school graduation rates are going up,

0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:44.240
<v Speaker 1>and then college graduation rates going up, people going and

0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:48.400
<v Speaker 1>getting master's degrees and even higher levels of professional degrees.

0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:52.800
<v Speaker 1>The incidents of that, the share of young workers that

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:55.960
<v Speaker 1>are continuing on in school is just going up. So

0:16:56.320 --> 0:17:01.320
<v Speaker 1>that um, that piece of the clin mine in labor

0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:04.760
<v Speaker 1>force participation among young people is actually really good news.

0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:08.639
<v Speaker 1>It's people making investments that will set them up to

0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.639
<v Speaker 1>get higher earnings going forward. And when you finished this

0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.720
<v Speaker 1>report and you sat back and you went home at night,

0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:19.520
<v Speaker 1>did anything keep you up anything? He'd really worry us,

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:23.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, none of what maybe not in the sense

0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:27.199
<v Speaker 1>that it was what we see wasn't a surprise. The

0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:30.239
<v Speaker 1>even though there's changes, all we were seeing sort of

0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:33.600
<v Speaker 1>things like the fastest growing jobs are going to be

0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:37.040
<v Speaker 1>in healthcare, that there are. The labor market is evolving

0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:40.640
<v Speaker 1>all the time, but it tends to evolve pretty slowly.

0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:42.840
<v Speaker 1>If you look out in the world and you see

0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:46.000
<v Speaker 1>the jobs that people do, it's you know, it's this.

0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:49.200
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't evolve all that fast. We still have unless

0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:52.359
<v Speaker 1>there's a shock, right, unless we get another another accession,

0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:56.600
<v Speaker 1>oh right right, that would be indeed a uh that

0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:59.160
<v Speaker 1>that I do not want to have happened. And that's

0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.360
<v Speaker 1>the stand of mixed in and for as long as

0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:06.439
<v Speaker 1>is absolutely possible. Um. So the thing about these projections

0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.080
<v Speaker 1>is that they don't factor that in. These projections come

0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:11.919
<v Speaker 1>out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and we we

0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:15.280
<v Speaker 1>certainly it is not their job to try to predict

0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:17.720
<v Speaker 1>when the next recession will be. And so they just

0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:20.560
<v Speaker 1>assume that things are going to be humming along at

0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 1>a at a sort of a happy place. And so

0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.879
<v Speaker 1>I do get worried about the prospect of another recession,

0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:30.680
<v Speaker 1>but that is not what these numbers are about it

0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:34.200
<v Speaker 1>right right, um, you know, how do you Before a break,

0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:39.480
<v Speaker 1>we talked about the not very encouraging future of print

0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:43.359
<v Speaker 1>journalism at least um so a newspaper, the newspaper and

0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:47.679
<v Speaker 1>periodicals industry is projected to lose more than one thousand

0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:51.520
<v Speaker 1>jobs over the next decade UM. For for people like

0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:57.439
<v Speaker 1>us who are in these potentially losing industries, UM, what

0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:00.560
<v Speaker 1>do you think we should be thinking about it? It

0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:04.040
<v Speaker 1>is tricky because you the well I keep saying things

0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:07.480
<v Speaker 1>evolved slowly, but there's some occupations and industries where things

0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.399
<v Speaker 1>are evolving quickly, and journalism in point of those. You

0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:14.159
<v Speaker 1>just see this, it's sort of lightning pace of the

0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:19.080
<v Speaker 1>way people absorb news just seems to be changing all

0:19:19.119 --> 0:19:22.160
<v Speaker 1>the time, really rapidly. But I think you just can

0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:25.359
<v Speaker 1>go back to we know they're still taking a news.

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.280
<v Speaker 1>People are still really hungry for this information, and so

0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:30.919
<v Speaker 1>it will be out there. So the best advice is

0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:35.760
<v Speaker 1>to do what you're doing, experiment, be flexible, be you know,

0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:41.160
<v Speaker 1>sort of able to to um looking forward into how

0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:46.120
<v Speaker 1>people are consuming it and trying to go in that direction. Wonderful. Well,

0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:48.600
<v Speaker 1>thank you Heidi so much for joining us. It's been

0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:52.000
<v Speaker 1>great getting all this wonderful insight from you. It's been

0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:56.359
<v Speaker 1>my pleasure. Happy New Year, you guys, thanks again for

0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:59.400
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Benchmark. We will be back next year

0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.520
<v Speaker 1>were and until then you can find us on the

0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Terminal and Bloomberg dot Com, as well as on iTunes, pocketcast,

0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:09.960
<v Speaker 1>stitch your Google Play, and while you're there, please take

0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:12.320
<v Speaker 1>a minute to rate and review the show. Some more

0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 1>people can find us and let us know what you

0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:16.280
<v Speaker 1>thought of the show. You can talk to us and

0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:20.520
<v Speaker 1>follow us on Twitter at seven at Tori Stillwell and

0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:23.760
<v Speaker 1>at Daniel Moss DC. Happy New Year, We'll see you in.

0:20:30.640 --> 0:20:33.800
<v Speaker 1>We're proud of our new and growing suite of original podcasts,

0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:36.920
<v Speaker 1>all designed to help you navigate the complexities of business,

0:20:37.119 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 1>financial markets, and the global economy. In addition to Bloomberg Benchmark,

0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:44.359
<v Speaker 1>which you're listening to now, don't miss Odd Lots, a

0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:47.720
<v Speaker 1>deep dive into the intersection of markets, economics, and finance

0:20:47.760 --> 0:20:50.960
<v Speaker 1>with Joe Wisenhal and Tracy Alloway. There's also Deal the

0:20:51.000 --> 0:20:54.760
<v Speaker 1>Week with our mergers and Acquisitions reporter Alec Sherman, looking

0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:57.199
<v Speaker 1>at a breakdown of the biggest deals and giving you

0:20:57.240 --> 0:21:00.840
<v Speaker 1>an inside peek into corporate boardrooms. All three shows are

0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:05.640
<v Speaker 1>available on iTunes, SoundCloud, pocket casts for Android, Bloomberg dot Com,

0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:08.320
<v Speaker 1>and of course, the Bloomberg Terminal. Check them out and

0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:12.280
<v Speaker 1>subscribe today. This episode was brought to you by nate X.

0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:14.560
<v Speaker 1>You know any long term investment is going to go

0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:17.919
<v Speaker 1>through short term dips and price fluctuations. Nate X binary

0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:21.360
<v Speaker 1>options that you turn those short term movements into trading opportunities.

0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:24.560
<v Speaker 1>You decide your maximum profit and loss before each trade,

0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:27.880
<v Speaker 1>so your risk is always limited. Trade stock in dissees,

0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.440
<v Speaker 1>commodities for X, even bitcoin in economic numbers, all from

0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:35.720
<v Speaker 1>one account on a CFTC regulated US exchange. Instead of

0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:38.160
<v Speaker 1>just watching the markets ups and downs, turn them into

0:21:38.200 --> 0:21:41.840
<v Speaker 1>trading opportunities at nate x dot com. It's the future

0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:46.240
<v Speaker 1>of trading n A d e X, dot com, futures

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:48.879
<v Speaker 1>options and swaps. Trading involves risk and may not be

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:50.640
<v Speaker 1>appropriate for all investors.