WEBVTT - NFL Week 6 Picks & Best Bets + Against the Spread Selections (Ep. 358) 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:03.240 Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:04.520 your bets. It is me, Joey P. 0:00:04.720 --> 0:00:06.800 Joe P's a P and it's week six, so you 0:00:06.800 --> 0:00:07.480 know what that means. 0:00:07.520 --> 0:00:09.959 It's time to start looking at some of our favorite 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:12.800 plays of the week. Andrew Erickson, the prop Profit, is 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:16.680 here as always. He is fresh from a little extended 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:19.120 vacation last week, but he is ready to go now 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:22.479 and of course back again. One of our favorite guests 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.040 here on the show Joe Ranieri from sportscrit TV. You 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:26.720 can catch him on Sports Career. It feels like every 0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:29.200 single day you're the hardest working man in show business. 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:30.400 What's that like for you, Joe? 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:33.760 You ever get a day off for no great? I'm 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:35.800 so glad you texted me this morning because I really 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:37.720 have no idea what day it is. So the fact 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.360 that you helped me along with this has been great. 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:43.000 I do know. There is some football tonight, which ultimately 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:44.840 is all that matters here at this time of the year. 0:00:45.040 --> 0:00:47.920 Yes, there is football tonight. There is football on Sunday 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:50.560 morning for those of us on the East Coast. There's 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:52.760 football way too early in the morning for those of 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:55.320 you on the West Coast. But there's a lot of 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:57.280 football to talk about and a lot of bets to 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:01.240 be made. Andrew Erickson, I knows a lot of injuries too, 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:04.280 So in your opinion, have the injuries this week really 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.360 impacted your look at some of these lines? 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:10.319 Yeah, I think so, especially when you look at teams 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:14.280 that have the cluster injuries where it is one team 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:16.759 just so much healthier than the other team. I think 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:18.560 that in itself is just like looking at I know 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:21.399 last week, I like the Falcons a lot, and you've 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.040 just looked at how healthy they were entering that game 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:25.880 versus the team that they were playing like they were 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:28.640 the more healthy team, and sometimes that can be enough 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:30.600 for a team to just kind of get that slight 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:33.319 edge over a team that's potentially coming in more injured, 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:36.200 more banged up. And if it's not as factored into 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:37.240 the line itself. 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:40.040 Yeah, Buffalo Bill's defense too, man. Have they taken a 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:42.040 lot of shots the last couple of weeks. 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:44.759 But lucky for them, they get the Giants this week, 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:46.640 so shouldn't show up too much. 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:48.680 But let's get to some of the picks before we do. 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.240 Just reminder, if you want some free stuff, all you 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:53.160 gotta do is drop a comment below and subscribe to 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:55.600 our Betting Pros YouTube channel, because when you do, you 0:01:55.640 --> 0:01:58.880 could win an Odell Beckham Junior Baltimore Ravens autographed jersey 0:01:58.960 --> 0:01:59.840 signed by Odell. 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:02.480 He doesn't use it, so we're giving it to you, 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:03.480 the people. 0:02:03.560 --> 0:02:06.320 We want you to take this jersey off of his hands. 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:08.960 He signed it for you. And again, just click that 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:11.160 little beltill it goes ding for notification, so you know 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:13.519 if you are the big winner of the Odell Beckham jersey, 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:14.960 comment subscribe. 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:17.560 That's it really easy to do. Joinier. Here are our guests. 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:19.280 Let's kick things off for week six. What do you 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:19.919 have for the people? 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:24.000 All right, well, we'll start with the early game on Sunday. 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.360 That's right. Those of you are on the West coast, 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:28.800 so sorry, you'll have to get up early, just like 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:31.079 us on the East coast to enjoy a little London 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:35.760 affair between Baltimore and Tennessee. And I think this has 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:39.320 got Baltimore written all over it. And I'll tell you why. 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:42.920 Anybody to watch that game last week you saw what 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:47.920 Baltimore's receivers dropped seven passes in that game, including three 0:02:48.000 --> 0:02:51.080 potential touchdowns and What I love is I love what 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:55.520 Todd Monkin has brought to Lamar Jackson and to this team. 0:02:56.200 --> 0:02:59.960 He's averaging more passes over ten yards this season than 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:03.239 has ever before. That's what Mounkin brings to the table. 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:07.880 He loves passing downfield. Those passes will not be dropped 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:10.919 again this week. And I'll tell you why. The last 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:14.880 time Baltimore was in England playing in one of these games, 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:18.880 it was embarrassing, to say the least. I believe it 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:22.000 was a forty four to seven loss back in twenty 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:26.720 and seventeen. So Harball, remembering that, decided that is not 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:29.400 going to happen again. As soon as that game was 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:33.359 over this weekend against Pittsburgh, guess where they left to England. 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.320 They had been there. They brought the entire team. We're talking, 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:41.400 video team, medical stamp, everybody has been there the entire 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:44.320 week here for the Baltimore Ravens. So there will be 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:47.640 no adjusting of the clocks. It won't be this nine 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.160 to thirty Eastern time game, which will be two thirty 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:54.640 local there. The Ravens no have been there, have done this. 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.320 They are not going to make the same mistake twice. 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:01.440 That's what Harbor does. Tennessee can't run the ball, which 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.360 is relying way too much on Ryan Tannehill. They got 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:07.360 healthier on the offensive line. That being Baltimore, they're not 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:09.920 going to be able to run against. All of this 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:12.640 leads me to believe this is a big bounce back 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.520 spot for Baltimore. Here, I'll lay the three to four 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:17.640 to four and a half, whatever it is you want 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:21.000 to give me. I'm laying at Baltimore routes Tennessee in London. 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:23.960 All right, interesting things there, And you're right, Tennessee you 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:26.159 can't run and really run against them. They've proven that 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:29.359 all year. But talk about literally letting a game slip 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:30.000 through your fingers. 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:31.159 Last week it's Burke. 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:34.359 I mean literally, they're over and over and over again. 0:04:34.960 --> 0:04:36.680 I agree it bounce back there, but at least we're 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:38.440 seeing Lamar throw the ball in the right spot. It's 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:41.359 not on Lamar, it's on the receivers and tight ends 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:43.680 and everybody. All right, Andrew Erickson, let's go to you 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:46.040 week six. Let's start with your favorite picks of the week. 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:46.440 What do you have? 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.240 Yeah, I'm going right back to the Atlanta Falcons because 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:52.240 I like betting on them when Desien Ritter plays at 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:54.520 home because that's where he's good. Yeah, you look at 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:57.800 him during his professional career college career, has not yet 0:04:57.920 --> 0:05:00.200 lost a home game. So as bad as he is 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:02.120 when he plays on the road, when he's able to 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:04.400 be kept upright in a clean pocket and operate the 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:07.240 offense and get it to his playmakers, this offense can 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:10.160 score points. And their defense is underrated. So and we're 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:13.440 also seeing regression kind of kick in favorably. 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:13.680 For the Falcons. 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:16.359 Last year lost eight of their ten one possession games. 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:19.400 This year they're two and zero because unlike the Vikings, 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:21.839 who are losing all their one possession games, the Falcons 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.000 are winning all their one possession games, as it should 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:26.960 be when a regression comes into play. So you're looking 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:29.560 at an offense I think can score against the Commanders. 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:32.040 I mean their commanders got lit up against basically everybody 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:33.520 at this point if it weren't for the Denver bron 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:35.239 because we talked about them as one of the worst. 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:36.720 Defenses in the NFL. 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:40.400 And I think again, the Falcons defense underrated when you 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:44.360 look at Sam Howell and this Washington Commander's offense when 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:48.000 they've faced any above average defenses, which in my opinion, 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.080 the closest defense to the Falcons that they've played is 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:54.080 the Bills. They got destroyed in that game against Buffalo. 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:56.640 Two weeks ago in all fairness, and they did. 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:57.360 But the Eagles. 0:05:57.480 --> 0:06:01.120 Yeah, but the Eagles defense though, is overrated. Like we know, 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:03.480 they have a good passers, but their secondary. 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:05.000 Secondary second years not secondary. 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:08.039 So the thing with the Falcons. The Falcons have a 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:12.200 complete defense. They can bring pressure, they have good cornerbacks, 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:17.039 good safeties that can cover. So for me, their statistical 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:19.320 output on defense has been solid, but it has not 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.920 translated into turnovers. They only have one turnover on defense 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.839 since Week one, despite playing great across the board, So 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:28.360 I think they're overdue for turnovers. I mean, you look 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:30.800 at whether the commanders have covered or not. This year, 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:34.200 it's almost always dictated by if they win the turnover battle. 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:37.080 They win the turnover battle, they cover, they don't, they 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:40.440 don't cover. So I'm gonna bet on regression again kicking 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:43.039 in for the Falcons at home with their defense, getting 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.960 after Sam Howell the sack machine himself, and they're gonna 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:48.400 get I think it could be a route, honestly, so 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:49.960 I'm gonna go with the Falcons minus two and a half. 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:51.600 All right, so the Falcons minus two and a half, 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:53.720 as Scott Bagman has coined him a few weeks ago, 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.200 jack Lyn Howell, We'll see which version shows up. You 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:59.040 think Desmond River has one of those sleep number beds ericson? 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:00.760 You think that's why you play so well at home? 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:01.000 Is that? 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:01.279 What is? 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:03.800 Does he send it to like, you know, sixty eight 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:06.400 degrees and you know he's got like he's a four 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:08.120 and a half of the sleep number scale. I don't 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.200 even know if that's the thing, but I'm pretty sure. 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:12.880 I mean, he seems like a guy that's very much 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:16.440 into routine, and maybe that's what kind of does it 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:18.200 for him. I mean the sleep number. I mean it's 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:20.440 not helping Dak Prescott, so that is true. I'm so 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:22.840 sure that that is the number is the key for 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:24.280 any of these NFL quarterbab It's. 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:25.440 Time to get rid of him as the spokesman. 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:27.520 If you're the sleep number of people, you're like, hey, look, Dak, 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:29.960 it's been a good run, but maybe we're gonna go 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.280 pivot to somebody else. Let's pivot to another game here. 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:34.120 Joe Ranieri, what do you have in Week six? 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:34.680 For the folks. 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:38.640 Yeah, try to couch Dak. Maybe that'll work. Maybe that'll 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:40.680 help you out there. Might send him to the couch 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:43.840 after last week. I do at least on my next 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:45.760 game is gonna be a game I've already bet twice 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:49.120 because I've been keeping an eye on the weather report 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:53.480 and you guys should as well. Minnesota at Chicago, and 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:56.080 it was confirmed again earlier today weather it's going to 0:07:56.160 --> 0:08:01.200 be atrocious. We're talking about wet and windy, real windy 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:05.040 in Chicago for this game here, which all leads me 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.680 to believe I got it at forty five. I think 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:09.800 it's forty four and a half now it was forty four, 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:13.200 and I think it's gonna keep dropping here. We know 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.840 Minnesota and Kirk Cousins, Oh guess who won't be on 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:21.000 the field anymore for him yet, justin Jefferson, which according 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:24.120 to my numbers, is worth about two points of offense 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:27.000 for that Minnesota team. They won't be able to throw 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:29.680 the ball all that well. And this is about matchups 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:35.160 here right now. We've got a defense of Minnesota that 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:38.040 loves to come and blitz here, and we've got an 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:42.400 offensive line Chicago that is a little bit less than 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:46.600 spectacular and got a couple of more injuries there last 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:49.720 time out where DJ Moore gained two hundred and twenty 0:08:49.760 --> 0:08:52.600 one yards and I've never seen this on simple hitches 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:54.960 and go routes. It was the most unbelievable thing I 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:57.960 have ever seen in my entire life there, Washington. I 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:01.520 appreciate that, really, but that will not happen in this 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.440 weather and in these conditions. This is going to be 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:07.680 a rock fight. The weather is going to dictate what 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:12.640 happens here. No Justin Jefferson, no downfield threats, Yeah, no 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:16.040 downfield threat for Chicago either. It's a dead under for 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.680 me in this one here with Minnesota in Chicago. 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:21.800 It's funny, Joe. I actually earlier in the week. 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:25.439 Was touting the Chicago Bears to just win this game 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:27.240 out right on the money line plus one twenty six, 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:30.480 just because I feel like the weather coming into play, 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:32.679 the lack of Justin Jefferson, the fact that the Bears 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:34.880 offense starting to look a little bit more explosive. Yes, 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:36.400 the defense is a problem, we all know that, but 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:38.600 soose the Vikings defense, and the Bears are at hole 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:40.200 and I'm just I don't know, man, for the this 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:42.079 is like, this is like that deathnel game for the 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:44.560 Vikings I feel like, which I know is very depressing 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:47.280 for all the Vikings fan I know you know Thor 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:50.320 is very upset about it. We'll do a check on him, 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:53.400 see how he's doing. Ericson, let's go to you again 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:54.760 for another pick and Week six, what. 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:55.000 Do you have. 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:59.000 I'm avoiding all weather in this game because I'm going 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:02.080 to a dome. So on the money line against the 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.120 New Orleans Saints. Now, I think that the Saints are 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:08.079 being back because they killed the Patriots, but we've seen that, Hey, 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:10.840 killing the Patriots just makes teams overvalue the next week. 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:14.880 That's Dak Prescott on his sleep number bed. So for me, 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:17.120 when I first looked at the Week six lines, the 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.160 Texans at plus two and a half was what really 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:22.319 stood out to me because they should have. They came 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.240 really close to winning last week, you know, if it 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:26.200 hasn't been for the regression for the Falcons in one 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.040 score games like C. Stroud set that team up to 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:32.280 come away with the victory last week against the Falcons, 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:33.319 and they came up just short. 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.079 But I want to point out that C. 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:38.080 Shard has obviously played really well this year, and the 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:40.800 offensive line is finally starting to get healthy for the 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:44.360 Houston Texans. Last week they had Laramie Tunsel, Titus Howard, 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.640 and Shack Mason all back in the lineup. Stroud faced 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:52.040 Week five's lowest pressure rate among all quarterbacks. So the 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:54.199 issue with Stroud has been okay, like he's going to 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:56.319 rind a patchworks in the line, Like how is he 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:57.959 going to get the ball out? That's not gonna be an 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.680 issue anymore because the Saints aren't overright defense when it 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:03.360 comes to their pass rush twenty fourth in pressure rate. 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:06.440 So yes, the Saints have been good on paper. They've 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:08.520 played a lot of bad teams. I would argue c J. 0:11:08.559 --> 0:11:10.680 Stard is the best quarterback that they've played this year. 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:13.120 So I think the key is going to be able 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:16.559 to come in there and just dice up this secondary. 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.120 So I love back in the Texans. Here on the 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:22.439 money line again, I think Derek Carr the Saints team. Yeah, 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:24.400 they beat the Patriots, Okay, a lot of teams can 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:26.000 beat the Patriots at this point, so I think that 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:28.160 they're overrated, and I think the Texan's coming off a 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:31.040 loss when everyone was really high on them. I think 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.240 This is a good value spot for them to bounce 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:35.200 back here and get the win in a matchup that 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:36.760 I think that CJ. Stroud can take advantage. 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:38.960 Jeff being the Patriots is not that impressive of a feat, 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:40.719 and beating in the New England is not impressive of 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.240 a feat anymore. More on them later in the show 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:45.920 before we keep going. Just to remind y'all, make sure 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:47.840 you're making your picks through the Betting Pros app. Make 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:50.400 sure you sink all your sports books and join our 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:53.240 NFL contest because it's free. Even if wagering isn't available 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:54.640 in the state you live, it doesn't matter. 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:56.520 Come make some picks with us, have some fun. 0:11:56.600 --> 0:12:00.080 Go to betting pros dot com slash NFL contest today 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.520 on the Betting Pros app. Just clicked that community tab 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:05.120 and joined through there. The winner for the season long 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.520 whever as the best picks of the year, gets a 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:10.360 Jackson Smith and Jigba jersey. We're also giving away weekly prizes, 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:13.600 monthly prizes. We're giving away Fantasy Pros and Betting Pro swag, 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:16.520 and also upgrades to our premium features at Betting Pros 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.640 and at Fantasy Pros. So again, free stuff for just 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.400 picking games. Sounds pretty good to me. Bettingpros dot Com, 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.880 Slash and fl Contest join it today, Jo Niri, let's 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:29.000 talk a little bit about the same game that Erickson 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:30.680 is in on, because you've got some thoughts when it 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:31.640 comes to Houston as well. 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:36.280 Yeah, and I absolutely agree with him. This New Orleans 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:40.280 defense might just be the most overrated group in the 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.560 National Football League given who they've played through the first 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:47.800 five weeks. Here, I mean, when the Titans, who ranked 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:52.280 nineteenth offensively in yards per play, are the best offense 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:55.720 that you had faced thus far this year, ye had 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:59.080 no there are going to be I love the over 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:03.120 in this. I think Houston's offense and he mentioned it there. 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:07.920 With Tunsel Titus Howard back healthy, this is going to 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.720 be not only the best offense that they have faced, 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.400 but I think it's also a matchup nightmare because it's 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:15.920 gonna be the best quarterback they faced and CJ. Stroud, 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:19.400 who will be protected and the problem with New Orleans 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:22.320 and the matchup is not great. Now, we'll have to 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.600 wait and he I know TANKDLL obviously in the concussion protocol, 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:28.040 will see what he's gonna be. But there if there's 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.679 a shot he goes. It makes it an even better 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.160 bet for me to look at the over in this game, 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:38.079 simply because the New Orleans defense plays the second highest 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.680 rate of man coverage in the secondary there. And the 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.560 problem is, guess what CJ. Stroud does better than just 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:48.200 about anybody. It's complete passes down the field against what 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.400 man coverage. It's a mismatch here. I do think Derek 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:56.880 Carr's shoulder injury we saw improvement last week. Usually when 0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:01.240 you get that whole that ligament thing there, the ac 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.560 sprain that they were talking about, usually by the time 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.760 you get to the third game, after you have received 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.640 that injury, it starts to get a little more normalized. 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.640 I do think they'll take some shots downfield. I think 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:16.920 Kamar will have some success, especially in the screen game. 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.720 When you put it all together. I certainlyleen Houston, but 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.400 I absolutely think we're getting more than forty two and 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:24.520 a half points in this game. 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:27.560 I feel like a proud dad about c J. Stroud 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.040 because he was my number one quarterback on the board 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:32.440 and that was kind of unpopular back in draft season. 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:36.000 Andrew Erickson and I did five twenty one draft shows together, 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.440 and then that couple of days before when all that 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:41.880 stupid Reddit Will Levis stuff broke, I did a special 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:43.480 video where I was like, the best bet you can 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.120 make is c J Stroud right now because that numbers 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:48.760 moved going second overall, it would be crazy for the 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:51.240 Texas to pass on him, and you know what they didn't. 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.360 It was whole bunch of nonsense. And c J. Stroud 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:55.800 has been excellent. So good on CJ. Stroud. 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:57.880 I'm glad that he's having such a good season. I 0:14:57.960 --> 0:14:59.800 drafted him in every super Flex league that I have. 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:03.920 Andrew Erickson, We're so proud of our boys. Sea dress dress, 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:05.280 so proud, so proud. 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.120 I mean, I'm proud of whoever from the Texans leaked 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:12.120 the S two scores that made him fall s two? 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:14.480 What the scores are? Can you throw the football and 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:16.880 complete it when it matters? That's all that you see. 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:17.800 Over the offensive line. 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:19.320 That's bad awesome. 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.080 Speaking of that, let's go to Carolina. Look at that segue. 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.840 Let's talk about the Carolina Panthers and the Miami Dolphins, 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:27.120 who set me up perfectly because you've got some feelings 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:29.720 about this game now. The Dolphins will be without Devon 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:32.840 han for this game, so the explosive young running back 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:34.840 who has been very fun to watch will not be 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.640 in this game, but still a lot of firepower there 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:40.040 for the Miami Dolphins and the team in the Carolina 0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.440 Panthers that frankly struggles to push the ball downfield. So 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:46.000 can they keep pace at all to hit this number? 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:49.360 Here? Ericson, So I do, I do think they can here? 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:51.240 So I like the overhere, even at forty eight and 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.480 a half. So Miami's three and two towards you over 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.000 the season, and the unders have come when they've played 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:59.400 the Giants and the Patriots. So two of the worst 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.080 scoring offense in the NFL. Now you're gonna probably look 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:05.560 at Carolina, probably similarly to the Patriots and Giants, but 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.200 Carolina has been better than both those offenses. 0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:10.520 Like everyone's been better than the Patriots off exactly. 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:11.560 Those are the bottom. 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:15.560 Eleven points again, eleven eleven on offense. 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:19.160 Sorry, it has not been pretty for those two offenses. 0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:22.720 Where last week we did see Carolina's offense start to 0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:24.720 move the ball a little bit better. They were okay 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:26.360 in the first half. It was kind of turnovers that 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.960 kind of had them spiraling, but even in the fourth 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:30.920 quarter they were still out there trying to score points. 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:34.080 They were scoring touchdowns even at garbage time, because why not. 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:37.080 You know, they had they drafted Bryce Young first overall, 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:39.000 so it's like they're going to want to pat his 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:41.520 stats in any way, shape or form to justify the pick. 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:43.440 So I don't think that we're going to see Carolina 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.440 just give up at any point in this game, even 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:49.000 if they are giving up twenty thirty points. So for me, 0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:52.000 I'm looking at the offense. I think that we've seen 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.880 that when they've been able to put up points so 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.840 far this year has been facing other top offenses on 0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:00.600 the road. So when they played Seattle Seas, they scored 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:02.400 a bunch of points. We saw it last week a 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:03.920 little bit. They were putting up more points than they 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:07.040 have in previous weeks. So I think that with that 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:09.639 type of game script where they are chasing points against 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:11.879 the high powered offense, that they are going to score. 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:13.680 And the fact that Bryce Young has kind of been 0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:17.080 so turnover worthy in terms of his play rate, like 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:18.880 he's kind of been loose with the ball, fumbling the ball, 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:21.679 throwing interceptions like that gives Miami access to scoring the 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:23.800 ball quickly, and Miami doesn't even need more help to 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:25.800 score the ball quickly because we know all the speedsters 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:29.400 they have they can score lickety split. So I think 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:34.040 that the team split can I I mean it is 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:34.399 a class. 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:35.680 I mean the next thing, you know, is a bunch 0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:37.920 of blarkie like. That's That's what I'm waiting for. I 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:39.840 know you're an old soul ericson. I know you're from 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:41.120 the New England area, but. 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:43.159 You got to change my defend. 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:48.600 Let me tell you, man. 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.720 I hope you're right, and I think you make a 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:54.399 good argument for it, that's for sure. Remember everybody too, 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.160 is you're trying to stay on top of all the stuff. 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:56.479 You're going on. 0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.880