1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:04,520 Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey P. 3 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 2: Joe P's a P and it's week six, so you 4 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 2: know what that means. 5 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:09,959 Speaker 1: It's time to start looking at some of our favorite 6 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: plays of the week. Andrew Erickson, the prop Profit, is 7 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: here as always. He is fresh from a little extended 8 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: vacation last week, but he is ready to go now 9 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,479 Speaker 1: and of course back again. One of our favorite guests 10 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: here on the show Joe Ranieri from sportscrit TV. You 11 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: can catch him on Sports Career. It feels like every 12 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: single day you're the hardest working man in show business. 13 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: What's that like for you, Joe? 14 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 3: You ever get a day off for no great? I'm 15 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 3: so glad you texted me this morning because I really 16 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 3: have no idea what day it is. So the fact 17 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 3: that you helped me along with this has been great. 18 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 3: I do know. There is some football tonight, which ultimately 19 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 3: is all that matters here at this time of the year. 20 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 1: Yes, there is football tonight. There is football on Sunday 21 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 1: morning for those of us on the East Coast. There's 22 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: football way too early in the morning for those of 23 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: you on the West Coast. But there's a lot of 24 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: football to talk about and a lot of bets to 25 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: be made. Andrew Erickson, I knows a lot of injuries too, 26 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: So in your opinion, have the injuries this week really 27 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: impacted your look at some of these lines? 28 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so, especially when you look at teams 29 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 4: that have the cluster injuries where it is one team 30 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,759 Speaker 4: just so much healthier than the other team. I think 31 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 4: that in itself is just like looking at I know 32 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 4: last week, I like the Falcons a lot, and you've 33 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 4: just looked at how healthy they were entering that game 34 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 4: versus the team that they were playing like they were 35 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 4: the more healthy team, and sometimes that can be enough 36 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 4: for a team to just kind of get that slight 37 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 4: edge over a team that's potentially coming in more injured, 38 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 4: more banged up. And if it's not as factored into 39 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 4: the line itself. 40 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, Buffalo Bill's defense too, man. Have they taken a 41 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 2: lot of shots the last couple of weeks. 42 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,759 Speaker 1: But lucky for them, they get the Giants this week, 43 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: so shouldn't show up too much. 44 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 2: But let's get to some of the picks before we do. 45 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: Just reminder, if you want some free stuff, all you 46 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: gotta do is drop a comment below and subscribe to 47 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: our Betting Pros YouTube channel, because when you do, you 48 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: could win an Odell Beckham Junior Baltimore Ravens autographed jersey 49 00:01:58,960 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: signed by Odell. 50 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: He doesn't use it, so we're giving it to you, 51 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 2: the people. 52 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: We want you to take this jersey off of his hands. 53 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 1: He signed it for you. And again, just click that 54 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 1: little beltill it goes ding for notification, so you know 55 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,519 Speaker 1: if you are the big winner of the Odell Beckham jersey, 56 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 1: comment subscribe. 57 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 2: That's it really easy to do. Joinier. Here are our guests. 58 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 2: Let's kick things off for week six. What do you 59 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 2: have for the people? 60 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 3: All right, well, we'll start with the early game on Sunday. 61 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 3: That's right. Those of you are on the West coast, 62 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 3: so sorry, you'll have to get up early, just like 63 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 3: us on the East coast to enjoy a little London 64 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 3: affair between Baltimore and Tennessee. And I think this has 65 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 3: got Baltimore written all over it. And I'll tell you why. 66 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 3: Anybody to watch that game last week you saw what 67 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 3: Baltimore's receivers dropped seven passes in that game, including three 68 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 3: potential touchdowns and What I love is I love what 69 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 3: Todd Monkin has brought to Lamar Jackson and to this team. 70 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 3: He's averaging more passes over ten yards this season than 71 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,239 Speaker 3: has ever before. That's what Mounkin brings to the table. 72 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 3: He loves passing downfield. Those passes will not be dropped 73 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 3: again this week. And I'll tell you why. The last 74 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 3: time Baltimore was in England playing in one of these games, 75 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 3: it was embarrassing, to say the least. I believe it 76 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 3: was a forty four to seven loss back in twenty 77 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 3: and seventeen. So Harball, remembering that, decided that is not 78 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 3: going to happen again. As soon as that game was 79 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:33,359 Speaker 3: over this weekend against Pittsburgh, guess where they left to England. 80 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 3: They had been there. They brought the entire team. We're talking, 81 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 3: video team, medical stamp, everybody has been there the entire 82 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 3: week here for the Baltimore Ravens. So there will be 83 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 3: no adjusting of the clocks. It won't be this nine 84 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 3: to thirty Eastern time game, which will be two thirty 85 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: local there. The Ravens no have been there, have done this. 86 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 3: They are not going to make the same mistake twice. 87 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 3: That's what Harbor does. Tennessee can't run the ball, which 88 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 3: is relying way too much on Ryan Tannehill. They got 89 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 3: healthier on the offensive line. That being Baltimore, they're not 90 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 3: going to be able to run against. All of this 91 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 3: leads me to believe this is a big bounce back 92 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 3: spot for Baltimore. Here, I'll lay the three to four 93 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 3: to four and a half, whatever it is you want 94 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 3: to give me. I'm laying at Baltimore routes Tennessee in London. 95 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: All right, interesting things there, And you're right, Tennessee you 96 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: can't run and really run against them. They've proven that 97 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 1: all year. But talk about literally letting a game slip 98 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: through your fingers. 99 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 2: Last week it's Burke. 100 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 1: I mean literally, they're over and over and over again. 101 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: I agree it bounce back there, but at least we're 102 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: seeing Lamar throw the ball in the right spot. It's 103 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,359 Speaker 1: not on Lamar, it's on the receivers and tight ends 104 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: and everybody. All right, Andrew Erickson, let's go to you 105 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: week six. Let's start with your favorite picks of the week. 106 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 2: What do you have? 107 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going right back to the Atlanta Falcons because 108 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 4: I like betting on them when Desien Ritter plays at 109 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 4: home because that's where he's good. Yeah, you look at 110 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 4: him during his professional career college career, has not yet 111 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 4: lost a home game. So as bad as he is 112 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 4: when he plays on the road, when he's able to 113 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 4: be kept upright in a clean pocket and operate the 114 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 4: offense and get it to his playmakers, this offense can 115 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 4: score points. And their defense is underrated. So and we're 116 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 4: also seeing regression kind of kick in favorably. 117 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 3: For the Falcons. 118 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,359 Speaker 4: Last year lost eight of their ten one possession games. 119 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 4: This year they're two and zero because unlike the Vikings, 120 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 4: who are losing all their one possession games, the Falcons 121 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 4: are winning all their one possession games, as it should 122 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 4: be when a regression comes into play. So you're looking 123 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 4: at an offense I think can score against the Commanders. 124 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 4: I mean their commanders got lit up against basically everybody 125 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 4: at this point if it weren't for the Denver bron 126 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:35,239 Speaker 4: because we talked about them as one of the worst. 127 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 3: Defenses in the NFL. 128 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 4: And I think again, the Falcons defense underrated when you 129 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 4: look at Sam Howell and this Washington Commander's offense when 130 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 4: they've faced any above average defenses, which in my opinion, 131 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 4: the closest defense to the Falcons that they've played is 132 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 4: the Bills. They got destroyed in that game against Buffalo. 133 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 2: Two weeks ago in all fairness, and they did. 134 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 3: But the Eagles. 135 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, but the Eagles defense though, is overrated. Like we know, 136 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 4: they have a good passers, but their secondary. 137 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 2: Secondary second years not secondary. 138 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 4: So the thing with the Falcons. The Falcons have a 139 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 4: complete defense. They can bring pressure, they have good cornerbacks, 140 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:17,039 Speaker 4: good safeties that can cover. So for me, their statistical 141 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 4: output on defense has been solid, but it has not 142 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 4: translated into turnovers. They only have one turnover on defense 143 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 4: since Week one, despite playing great across the board, So 144 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 4: I think they're overdue for turnovers. I mean, you look 145 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 4: at whether the commanders have covered or not. This year, 146 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 4: it's almost always dictated by if they win the turnover battle. 147 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 4: They win the turnover battle, they cover, they don't, they 148 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 4: don't cover. So I'm gonna bet on regression again kicking 149 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,039 Speaker 4: in for the Falcons at home with their defense, getting 150 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 4: after Sam Howell the sack machine himself, and they're gonna 151 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 4: get I think it could be a route, honestly, so 152 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the Falcons minus two and a half. 153 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 1: All right, so the Falcons minus two and a half, 154 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 1: as Scott Bagman has coined him a few weeks ago, 155 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: jack Lyn Howell, We'll see which version shows up. You 156 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: think Desmond River has one of those sleep number beds ericson? 157 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 1: You think that's why you play so well at home? 158 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 2: Is that? 159 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 4: What is? 160 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: Does he send it to like, you know, sixty eight 161 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: degrees and you know he's got like he's a four 162 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: and a half of the sleep number scale. I don't 163 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: even know if that's the thing, but I'm pretty sure. 164 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 4: I mean, he seems like a guy that's very much 165 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 4: into routine, and maybe that's what kind of does it 166 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 4: for him. I mean the sleep number. I mean it's 167 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 4: not helping Dak Prescott, so that is true. I'm so 168 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 4: sure that that is the number is the key for 169 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 4: any of these NFL quarterbab It's. 170 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 2: Time to get rid of him as the spokesman. 171 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: If you're the sleep number of people, you're like, hey, look, Dak, 172 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 1: it's been a good run, but maybe we're gonna go 173 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: pivot to somebody else. Let's pivot to another game here. 174 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: Joe Ranieri, what do you have in Week six? 175 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 2: For the folks. 176 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, try to couch Dak. Maybe that'll work. Maybe that'll 177 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 3: help you out there. Might send him to the couch 178 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 3: after last week. I do at least on my next 179 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 3: game is gonna be a game I've already bet twice 180 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 3: because I've been keeping an eye on the weather report 181 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 3: and you guys should as well. Minnesota at Chicago, and 182 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 3: it was confirmed again earlier today weather it's going to 183 00:07:56,160 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 3: be atrocious. We're talking about wet and windy, real windy 184 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 3: in Chicago for this game here, which all leads me 185 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 3: to believe I got it at forty five. I think 186 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 3: it's forty four and a half now it was forty four, 187 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 3: and I think it's gonna keep dropping here. We know 188 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 3: Minnesota and Kirk Cousins, Oh guess who won't be on 189 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 3: the field anymore for him yet, justin Jefferson, which according 190 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 3: to my numbers, is worth about two points of offense 191 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 3: for that Minnesota team. They won't be able to throw 192 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 3: the ball all that well. And this is about matchups 193 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 3: here right now. We've got a defense of Minnesota that 194 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 3: loves to come and blitz here, and we've got an 195 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 3: offensive line Chicago that is a little bit less than 196 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 3: spectacular and got a couple of more injuries there last 197 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 3: time out where DJ Moore gained two hundred and twenty 198 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 3: one yards and I've never seen this on simple hitches 199 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 3: and go routes. It was the most unbelievable thing I 200 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 3: have ever seen in my entire life there, Washington. I 201 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 3: appreciate that, really, but that will not happen in this 202 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 3: weather and in these conditions. This is going to be 203 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 3: a rock fight. The weather is going to dictate what 204 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 3: happens here. No Justin Jefferson, no downfield threats, Yeah, no 205 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 3: downfield threat for Chicago either. It's a dead under for 206 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 3: me in this one here with Minnesota in Chicago. 207 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 2: It's funny, Joe. I actually earlier in the week. 208 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 1: Was touting the Chicago Bears to just win this game 209 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: out right on the money line plus one twenty six, 210 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: just because I feel like the weather coming into play, 211 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 1: the lack of Justin Jefferson, the fact that the Bears 212 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: offense starting to look a little bit more explosive. Yes, 213 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: the defense is a problem, we all know that, but 214 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: soose the Vikings defense, and the Bears are at hole 215 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:40,200 Speaker 1: and I'm just I don't know, man, for the this 216 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 1: is like, this is like that deathnel game for the 217 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: Vikings I feel like, which I know is very depressing 218 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: for all the Vikings fan I know you know Thor 219 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: is very upset about it. We'll do a check on him, 220 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: see how he's doing. Ericson, let's go to you again 221 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: for another pick and Week six, what. 222 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 3: Do you have. 223 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 4: I'm avoiding all weather in this game because I'm going 224 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 4: to a dome. So on the money line against the 225 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 4: New Orleans Saints. Now, I think that the Saints are 226 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:08,079 Speaker 4: being back because they killed the Patriots, but we've seen that, Hey, 227 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 4: killing the Patriots just makes teams overvalue the next week. 228 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 4: That's Dak Prescott on his sleep number bed. So for me, 229 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 4: when I first looked at the Week six lines, the 230 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 4: Texans at plus two and a half was what really 231 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,319 Speaker 4: stood out to me because they should have. They came 232 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 4: really close to winning last week, you know, if it 233 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 4: hasn't been for the regression for the Falcons in one 234 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 4: score games like C. Stroud set that team up to 235 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 4: come away with the victory last week against the Falcons, 236 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:33,319 Speaker 4: and they came up just short. 237 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 3: But I want to point out that C. 238 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 4: Shard has obviously played really well this year, and the 239 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 4: offensive line is finally starting to get healthy for the 240 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 4: Houston Texans. Last week they had Laramie Tunsel, Titus Howard, 241 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 4: and Shack Mason all back in the lineup. Stroud faced 242 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 4: Week five's lowest pressure rate among all quarterbacks. So the 243 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,199 Speaker 4: issue with Stroud has been okay, like he's going to 244 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,319 Speaker 4: rind a patchworks in the line, Like how is he 245 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 4: going to get the ball out? That's not gonna be an 246 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 4: issue anymore because the Saints aren't overright defense when it 247 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 4: comes to their pass rush twenty fourth in pressure rate. 248 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,440 Speaker 4: So yes, the Saints have been good on paper. They've 249 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 4: played a lot of bad teams. I would argue c J. 250 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 4: Stard is the best quarterback that they've played this year. 251 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 4: So I think the key is going to be able 252 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 4: to come in there and just dice up this secondary. 253 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 4: So I love back in the Texans. Here on the 254 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 4: money line again, I think Derek Carr the Saints team. Yeah, 255 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 4: they beat the Patriots, Okay, a lot of teams can 256 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 4: beat the Patriots at this point, so I think that 257 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 4: they're overrated, and I think the Texan's coming off a 258 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 4: loss when everyone was really high on them. I think 259 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 4: This is a good value spot for them to bounce 260 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 4: back here and get the win in a matchup that 261 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 4: I think that CJ. Stroud can take advantage. 262 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 1: Jeff being the Patriots is not that impressive of a feat, 263 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 1: and beating in the New England is not impressive of 264 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: a feat anymore. More on them later in the show 265 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: before we keep going. Just to remind y'all, make sure 266 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: you're making your picks through the Betting Pros app. Make 267 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: sure you sink all your sports books and join our 268 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: NFL contest because it's free. Even if wagering isn't available 269 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: in the state you live, it doesn't matter. 270 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 2: Come make some picks with us, have some fun. 271 00:11:56,600 --> 00:12:00,080 Speaker 1: Go to betting pros dot com slash NFL contest today 272 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 1: on the Betting Pros app. Just clicked that community tab 273 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 1: and joined through there. The winner for the season long 274 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: whever as the best picks of the year, gets a 275 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and Jigba jersey. We're also giving away weekly prizes, 276 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 1: monthly prizes. We're giving away Fantasy Pros and Betting Pro swag, 277 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: and also upgrades to our premium features at Betting Pros 278 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: and at Fantasy Pros. So again, free stuff for just 279 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 1: picking games. Sounds pretty good to me. Bettingpros dot Com, 280 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: Slash and fl Contest join it today, Jo Niri, let's 281 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about the same game that Erickson 282 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 1: is in on, because you've got some thoughts when it 283 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: comes to Houston as well. 284 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I absolutely agree with him. This New Orleans 285 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 3: defense might just be the most overrated group in the 286 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 3: National Football League given who they've played through the first 287 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 3: five weeks. Here, I mean, when the Titans, who ranked 288 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 3: nineteenth offensively in yards per play, are the best offense 289 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 3: that you had faced thus far this year, ye had 290 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 3: no there are going to be I love the over 291 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 3: in this. I think Houston's offense and he mentioned it there. 292 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 3: With Tunsel Titus Howard back healthy, this is going to 293 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 3: be not only the best offense that they have faced, 294 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 3: but I think it's also a matchup nightmare because it's 295 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 3: gonna be the best quarterback they faced and CJ. Stroud, 296 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 3: who will be protected and the problem with New Orleans 297 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 3: and the matchup is not great. Now, we'll have to 298 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 3: wait and he I know TANKDLL obviously in the concussion protocol, 299 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 3: will see what he's gonna be. But there if there's 300 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 3: a shot he goes. It makes it an even better 301 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 3: bet for me to look at the over in this game, 302 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:38,079 Speaker 3: simply because the New Orleans defense plays the second highest 303 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 3: rate of man coverage in the secondary there. And the 304 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 3: problem is, guess what CJ. Stroud does better than just 305 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 3: about anybody. It's complete passes down the field against what 306 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 3: man coverage. It's a mismatch here. I do think Derek 307 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 3: Carr's shoulder injury we saw improvement last week. Usually when 308 00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 3: you get that whole that ligament thing there, the ac 309 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 3: sprain that they were talking about, usually by the time 310 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 3: you get to the third game, after you have received 311 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 3: that injury, it starts to get a little more normalized. 312 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 3: I do think they'll take some shots downfield. I think 313 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 3: Kamar will have some success, especially in the screen game. 314 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 3: When you put it all together. I certainlyleen Houston, but 315 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 3: I absolutely think we're getting more than forty two and 316 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 3: a half points in this game. 317 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 1: I feel like a proud dad about c J. Stroud 318 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: because he was my number one quarterback on the board 319 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: and that was kind of unpopular back in draft season. 320 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson and I did five twenty one draft shows together, 321 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 1: and then that couple of days before when all that 322 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: stupid Reddit Will Levis stuff broke, I did a special 323 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: video where I was like, the best bet you can 324 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: make is c J Stroud right now because that numbers 325 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: moved going second overall, it would be crazy for the 326 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: Texas to pass on him, and you know what they didn't. 327 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 2: It was whole bunch of nonsense. And c J. Stroud 328 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 2: has been excellent. So good on CJ. Stroud. 329 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: I'm glad that he's having such a good season. I 330 00:14:57,960 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 1: drafted him in every super Flex league that I have. 331 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson, We're so proud of our boys. Sea dress dress, 332 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: so proud, so proud. 333 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 4: I mean, I'm proud of whoever from the Texans leaked 334 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 4: the S two scores that made him fall s two? 335 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: What the scores are? Can you throw the football and 336 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: complete it when it matters? That's all that you see. 337 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 4: Over the offensive line. 338 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 3: That's bad awesome. 339 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 2: Speaking of that, let's go to Carolina. Look at that segue. 340 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Carolina Panthers and the Miami Dolphins, 341 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: who set me up perfectly because you've got some feelings 342 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: about this game now. The Dolphins will be without Devon 343 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 1: han for this game, so the explosive young running back 344 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: who has been very fun to watch will not be 345 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 1: in this game, but still a lot of firepower there 346 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: for the Miami Dolphins and the team in the Carolina 347 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: Panthers that frankly struggles to push the ball downfield. So 348 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: can they keep pace at all to hit this number? 349 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 4: Here? Ericson, So I do, I do think they can here? 350 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 4: So I like the overhere, even at forty eight and 351 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 4: a half. So Miami's three and two towards you over 352 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 4: the season, and the unders have come when they've played 353 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 4: the Giants and the Patriots. So two of the worst 354 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 4: scoring offense in the NFL. Now you're gonna probably look 355 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 4: at Carolina, probably similarly to the Patriots and Giants, but 356 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 4: Carolina has been better than both those offenses. 357 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: Like everyone's been better than the Patriots off exactly. 358 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 3: Those are the bottom. 359 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: Eleven points again, eleven eleven on offense. 360 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 4: Sorry, it has not been pretty for those two offenses. 361 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 4: Where last week we did see Carolina's offense start to 362 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 4: move the ball a little bit better. They were okay 363 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 4: in the first half. It was kind of turnovers that 364 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 4: kind of had them spiraling, but even in the fourth 365 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 4: quarter they were still out there trying to score points. 366 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 4: They were scoring touchdowns even at garbage time, because why not. 367 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 4: You know, they had they drafted Bryce Young first overall, 368 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 4: so it's like they're going to want to pat his 369 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 4: stats in any way, shape or form to justify the pick. 370 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 4: So I don't think that we're going to see Carolina 371 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 4: just give up at any point in this game, even 372 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 4: if they are giving up twenty thirty points. So for me, 373 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 4: I'm looking at the offense. I think that we've seen 374 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 4: that when they've been able to put up points so 375 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 4: far this year has been facing other top offenses on 376 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 4: the road. So when they played Seattle Seas, they scored 377 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 4: a bunch of points. We saw it last week a 378 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 4: little bit. They were putting up more points than they 379 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 4: have in previous weeks. So I think that with that 380 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 4: type of game script where they are chasing points against 381 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 4: the high powered offense, that they are going to score. 382 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 4: And the fact that Bryce Young has kind of been 383 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 4: so turnover worthy in terms of his play rate, like 384 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 4: he's kind of been loose with the ball, fumbling the ball, 385 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 4: throwing interceptions like that gives Miami access to scoring the 386 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 4: ball quickly, and Miami doesn't even need more help to 387 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 4: score the ball quickly because we know all the speedsters 388 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:29,400 Speaker 4: they have they can score lickety split. So I think 389 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 4: that the team split can I I mean it is 390 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 4: a class. 391 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 1: I mean the next thing, you know, is a bunch 392 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 1: of blarkie like. That's That's what I'm waiting for. I 393 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: know you're an old soul ericson. I know you're from 394 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 1: the New England area, but. 395 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,159 Speaker 3: You got to change my defend. 396 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 2: Let me tell you, man. 397 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 1: I hope you're right, and I think you make a 398 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 1: good argument for it, that's for sure. Remember everybody too, 399 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: is you're trying to stay on top of all the stuff. 400 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:56,479 Speaker 2: You're going on. 401 00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 1: You know, from now until kickoff, make sure you're looking 402 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 1: at the line movement alerts you can get on the 403 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: VP app because you could set certain games for those 404 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: game notifications, so you know, you know, if you're anticipating 405 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 1: maybe some line movement, or as Joe pointed out earlier, 406 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 1: you know some weather's gonna be affecting some of these 407 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: games here. You want to make sure you're staying on 408 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 1: top of all those things so you can know and 409 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: get your best possible wager in there. 410 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:18,640 Speaker 2: From all the sportsbooks that's a whole point. 411 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: So sink all your sportsbooks and don't forget to set 412 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 1: those game notifications so you know when those line alerts happen. 413 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 1: Joe Ranieri, let's get another one off your list. 414 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 2: It's number four and it's the Patriots. 415 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: You're gonna have to sell me on this one because 416 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: I am so far on the other side of this 417 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: after watching the Patriots, who have no defense, they have 418 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 1: no pass rush, they have no secondary everybody's hurt, they 419 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: have no offense. How in the world do you justifying 420 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 1: New England in the minus three? 421 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:50,160 Speaker 3: I gotta it's simple. Jimmy Garoppolo makes life very easy here. No, listen, 422 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 3: we're talking about a as bad as New England has been, 423 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 3: there's about there are Situationally, this is a spot you 424 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 3: want to go with the home team getty, or you 425 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 3: want to go with the team getting points given how 426 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 3: bad they have been over these last stretch of games here, 427 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 3: and it's no doubt bit disgusting. But I'll take you 428 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 3: back a year ago. While New England's offensive line, I 429 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 3: think they ranked close to dead last, if not thirtieth, 430 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 3: inn pass blocking efficiency this year, which also explains a 431 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 3: lot of the problems that Matt Jones has been having. 432 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:26,680 Speaker 3: But look at who they've had to go up against 433 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 3: when it comes to pressure on the quarterback. Cowboys, Jets, Dolphins, 434 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 3: all ranking in the top five here of getting to 435 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 3: the quarterback here. Now, Max Crosby is an issue, but 436 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,919 Speaker 3: Max Crosby can be neutralized. You know how doing exactly 437 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:43,479 Speaker 3: he was an issue last year, and you know how 438 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,120 Speaker 3: they neutralized them. They ran for two hundred and six 439 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 3: yards on the ground, which is exactly what they are 440 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 3: going to do here. In fact, the Raiders their defense 441 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 3: just twenty fifth and expected rushing. Their ability to be 442 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 3: able to stop the rush has not been great. So 443 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 3: if New England wants to get back on track, and 444 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 3: no doubt they are looking to score more than well 445 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 3: the points that they have scored the last couple of weeks, 446 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 3: it's gonna happen. If they're looking to see, we don't 447 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 3: set the bar high we wanted, we just want to 448 00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 3: go above that bar. Uh. And the way that you 449 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 3: do that is simply go ahead and uh and rush 450 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 3: the ball, which is exactly what they're gonna do. I'll 451 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 3: also say this, the Patriots uncharacteristically have lost a league 452 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 3: worse twenty four points because of special teams. That is 453 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,199 Speaker 3: not going to continue with Bill Belichick. I don't care 454 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 3: if he's got to start over. When he said we're 455 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 3: gonna start over, he's gonna start over, and he's gonna 456 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 3: start with special teams first, because they have been an 457 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 3: absolute abomination. He's losing nearly five points a game when 458 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 3: it comes to special teams. I don't see that happening. 459 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 3: I also don't see the Raiders being able to run 460 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 3: the ball at all. Uh, the reason of the offense 461 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 3: kick it off the ground, and we're talking they're only 462 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 3: averaging fifteen point eight points a game here, guys, they're 463 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 3: twenty night. They were twenty almost twenty four points the 464 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 3: same time last year offensively, and the big difference is 465 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 3: they can't run the ball. Not to mention, Garoppolo lost 466 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 3: his starting right tackle, so that's not great. They've got 467 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 3: backups now on the offensive line. When you put it 468 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 3: all together, as discussing as this may seem here, you're 469 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 3: gonna trust Jimmy Garoppolo to do what some of these 470 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,159 Speaker 3: other teams have done to New England. If New England 471 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:40,359 Speaker 3: stops shooting themselves in the foot and goes back to 472 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 3: old hard Nos football, where run the damn ball down 473 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 3: the throat of the Raiders and clean up the special 474 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 3: teams that I'll take all the points you want to 475 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 3: give me all day long. In this spot, Belichick knows 476 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 3: he is not going to go to Vegas and get 477 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 3: embarrassed once again. He's not gonna let a guy he 478 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,399 Speaker 3: knows better than anybody in that building and including the 479 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 3: other coach, ain't gonna let them beat him. Didn't do 480 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 3: it last he ain't gonna do it this year either. 481 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,679 Speaker 3: So I'm taking the Patriots and the field goal in 482 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 3: this spot. 483 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: As a Patriots fan, I hope you're right. As a 484 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 1: better I'm already on Vegas, just like last week. I 485 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: teased up the New Orleans Saints to three and a 486 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: half and I said, let's go. Let's get that plus money. 487 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: I should have teased it to thirty, and I still 488 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 1: be okay. But we'll see. Maybe they will get. 489 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 2: Back to basics. 490 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 1: Maybe I think they're closer to Caleb Williams than they 491 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 1: are winning this football game. Andrew Jackson, for you, my friend, 492 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: give us number four on your list for Week six. 493 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 4: I'm doing the Cincinnati Seattle Seahawks. Game like the over here. 494 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 4: I know there's a little bit of weather concern, so 495 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:43,440 Speaker 4: kind of keep an eye on that, but it doesn't 496 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:44,639 Speaker 4: look like it's gonna be as bad as some of 497 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 4: the other games. Maybe some rain, but as long as 498 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 4: the wind stays below that fifty miles per hour usually 499 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 4: were pretty good. So I just the Seahows defense not good. 500 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 4: Let ranks dead last, red zone efficiency thirty, first and 501 00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,360 Speaker 4: third done conversion rate, the Bengals defense outside the top, 502 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 4: twenty points per game, third down yards per play, and 503 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 4: when you look at the Cincinnati run defense specifically not great. 504 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 4: It's basically the same as like the New York Giants 505 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 4: run defense, and we saw Seattle rush for one hundred 506 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 4: and twenty plus yards against them. So I don't have 507 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 4: any issues with Seattle moving the football against the Cincinnati 508 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 4: run defense. I don't have any issues with Joe Burrow, 509 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 4: healthy calf moving the ball against Seattle's defense overall. So 510 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 4: to me, it's kind of just like, yeah, this is 511 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 4: pointing to a place where I could either be a 512 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 4: lod of points scoring in this particular matchup, especially with 513 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 4: the Seattle side. Their offensive line is finally healthy, like 514 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 4: they're coming back off the bye week. They had a 515 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,120 Speaker 4: ton of offensive line injuries to open the year. It's when 516 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 4: they dropped that first game to the Rams and we're like, 517 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 4: oh no, it's Gino Smith, Like is he horrible? Like 518 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 4: what's the issue here? But offensive line should be healthy. 519 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:49,919 Speaker 4: They're gonna be runn the ball effectively. I think that 520 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 4: we saw last week the Bengals kind of bounce back 521 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 4: on offense. I think that starts to continue as they 522 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 4: head into their bye week because they need to pick 523 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 4: up steam. The AFC North is again, it's still open 524 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 4: because teams keep losing games, because the Steelers keep winning 525 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 4: games somehow, So I think this is a spot where 526 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,360 Speaker 4: their offense cooks. Seattle's cooks and we get the over. 527 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,360 Speaker 1: Ken Walker's price on FanDuel this week, by the way, 528 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 1: it's ridiculous, Like I've never seen ken Walker's price so high, 529 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 1: and I want it anyway against Cincinnati and DK is 530 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: questionable for this game. He's dealing with an injury as well, 531 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 1: so that's interesting piece there. But I'm with ericson. I 532 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: think it's a decent sized number of the forty five 533 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 1: and a half. But I'm with you on the over there, 534 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 1: all right. 535 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:27,360 Speaker 2: Last one. 536 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 1: Boys, here we go make a good week six in 537 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: the NFL JO Niery, what do you have for us 538 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 1: in terms of the lines, the spreads? 539 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 2: What do you like? 540 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 3: All Right? So in the last one here, I'm a 541 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 3: big believer of if it ain't bro, do not fix it. 542 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,160 Speaker 3: And when it comes to the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 543 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 3: it's a tail of two halfs with this guy and 544 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 3: this team, and I do feel terrible for him, But 545 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,479 Speaker 3: I also have a side bet on Brandon Sally being 546 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 3: the first coach fired this year. And I'm fingers across. 547 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 2: Here that that good before the end of the year. 548 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 3: But the reality is we're talking and it's amazing to 549 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 3: the last twenty two games the Chargers have played, seventeen 550 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 3: of those twenty two have finished within a touchdown. So 551 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,440 Speaker 3: they play these unbelievably close games here. But I don't 552 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 3: want nothing to do with full game simply because of 553 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 3: this stat. Justin Herbert in this spot thirty two twenty 554 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 3: two and one in the first half against the number. 555 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 3: He is fifteen and seven in the first half against 556 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 3: the number since the start of last season. The biggest 557 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:38,879 Speaker 3: problem with Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Anybody want to 558 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 3: take a guess is they burn money in the second 559 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 3: half because whatever lead, and they usually do have the 560 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,640 Speaker 3: lead in the first half because gim Wrollerer faults. They 561 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 3: usually script a good enough start to the game plan 562 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 3: and lead the game, but then go into the half 563 00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,479 Speaker 3: when the other team of just guess what happens, they 564 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 3: get absolutely buried. He since two thousand and five, ranks 565 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,560 Speaker 3: as two hundred and forty seventh of the two hundred 566 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 3: and fifty quarterbacks least profitable in the second half. I 567 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 3: want nothing to do in a full game on this. 568 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,719 Speaker 3: But if an ain't pro, guy, I am not fixing it. 569 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 3: The guy is an absolute ATM machine. This Chargers team 570 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,479 Speaker 3: has been an ATM machine early in games. I am 571 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 3: taking them on the money line in the first half 572 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 3: against Dallas, but unfortunately it probably won't stick in the 573 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 3: second half because again, if it ain't pro, don't fix it. 574 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 2: It sounds like you're giving us an easy plan. Though. 575 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 1: You bet the Chargers on the first half, and then 576 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: you wait for the Dallas Cowboys money line at halftime 577 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: live and then you go bet that and you just 578 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 1: keep winning like that. I mean, this is the perfect script. 579 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: Joe Ranieri this is a gift you've given the people. 580 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 1: Thank you so much today. I can't wait to do 581 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 1: this on Sunday. This is exactly what I'm doing. 582 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 4: No, it's Monday, Monday Night, Monday Night, Monday Night. 583 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,359 Speaker 1: More focus, even better, I forgot this is the Monday 584 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 1: night game. Yes, it's perfect, fantastic all right. Andrew Erickson 585 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: closes out here strong last pick four, Week six? 586 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:07,199 Speaker 2: What is it? 587 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 4: Detroit Lions minus three playing in Tampa Bay. I think 588 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,439 Speaker 4: that this is disrespectful to the Lions to be twenty 589 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 4: one and seven burst to spread in games with fifty 590 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,160 Speaker 4: four points or fewer scored. Since the beginning or since 591 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,439 Speaker 4: the middle of last season, basically when Ben Johnson started 592 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 4: taking a larger role and calling the offense that's best 593 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 4: in the NFL, the Lions have been a team that 594 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 4: have met expectations with this new pairing. I think they're 595 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 4: a legitimate four and one team had it not been 596 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 4: for that one loss against Seattle in overtime because Jared 597 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 4: Goff broke his interceptions record in terms of throwing a 598 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,680 Speaker 4: pick six, Like that's the only blemish that I'm really 599 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 4: finding on this Lions team. And the Buccaneers are the 600 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 4: most fraudulent three and one team I can find. They 601 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,880 Speaker 4: beat two teams that were winless, they beat another team 602 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 4: that tried out a quarterback after he had an AC's 603 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,879 Speaker 4: shoulder injury. And the Buccaneers are basically running hot on 604 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 4: every efficiency metric that is not sustainable over a long 605 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 4: period of time. Number one in turnover margin. Baker Mayfield 606 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 4: is the highest rated quarterback under pressure. He's been the 607 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,640 Speaker 4: best quarterback on third downs. Those are great descriptive statistics, 608 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 4: they are not predictive statistics. 609 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:15,120 Speaker 3: Like that's the. 610 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,360 Speaker 4: Thing, Like Baker may is playing out of his mind 611 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 4: right now. It's not going to continue, especially against a 612 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 4: team like the Lions, who are showing that hey, we 613 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,119 Speaker 4: can meet an elite team in this in this league. Yeah, 614 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 4: and against Tampa Bay. Mike Evans is banged up. That's 615 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 4: been Baker Mayfield's guy. Like, I don't understand if the 616 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 4: line is because Jared Goff is like playing outside, it's 617 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 4: not because jaredside or he's but he's yeah, but it's yeah, 618 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 4: but he's playing seventy seven degrees in Tampa Bay. It's 619 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 4: not like we're going to Chicago and twenty degree weather. 620 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 2: They're indoor cat at Jared goffin indoor cat. 621 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 4: It's it's it's bad weather and cold that affect Jared Goff, 622 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 4: not oh, I'm playing outside seventy seven degrees and it's 623 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 4: sunny out. 624 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 3: I think that he's going to be fine. He can 625 00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 3: hold the ball, he's got small hands. 626 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 2: I think that he'll be fine. You can go glove 627 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 2: shopping his holiday season. 628 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 3: Kind of like that. So I'm going Lions. I'm Mayfield. 629 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 4: I like it. Yeah, minus three Detroit. 630 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 2: Here you have it, everybody. 631 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 1: Just a quick recap of with the guys like Joe 632 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 1: Ranieri's on Baltimore at the minus three or the four, 633 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 1: whatever you want to give him. He likes the under 634 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 1: in the Chicago Minnesota game. He likes the over in 635 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 1: New Orleans and Houston. The New England Patriots at minus three. 636 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 1: We'll see on that one, Joe. I love you, but 637 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: I gotta see on that one. The Chargers first half 638 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: money line, this is the best bet of the week. 639 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 2: I love this. 640 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 1: Juranniuri's crush this one. And then you can make double 641 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 1: your money by betting the Dallas Cowboys in the second 642 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 1: half of that because I'm sure it's gonna go to 643 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 1: what like, if they're up by ten, it's probably gonna 644 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 1: be like, well plus three twenty or something like that. 645 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 1: Or I mean, let's go Ericson's favorite bets the Falcons 646 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 1: minus two and a half, the Texas on the money line, 647 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: Miami Carolina over forty eight and a half, Cincinnati Seattle 648 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 1: over forty five and a half, and the Lions minus three. Gentlemen, 649 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 1: so much fun, great insight, great stuff. Follow Joe over 650 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 1: on x at Joe Ranier and check him out every 651 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 1: single day over at sports grid TV, talking ball, talking 652 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 1: everything he does, baseball, does football. 653 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 2: I mean he might even do basketball nowadays. I don't know. 654 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,959 Speaker 1: Joe Ranieri doesn't know what dat is. He doesn't get 655 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 1: any sleep. But how about that Bryce Harper performance by 656 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 1: the way, Joe, I know you're a baseball guy. 657 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 2: Pretty impressive last night, right, Love that. 658 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 3: But the Diamondbacks, quite honestly, that's the story. There's one 659 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 3: team every year, yeah that you go, nah, yeah, and 660 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 3: lucky to get it yeah well yeah, good luck. Yeah, 661 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 3: I get in front of that team. 662 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 1: Crushed a lot of hopes and dreams of the Dodger fans, 663 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 1: ask for sure. So that'll do it for us. But 664 00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 1: the story of the game goes on for Joe and Andrew. 665 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,320 Speaker 2: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time kids. Thanks 666 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 2: for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 667 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 1: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 668 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 1: Instagram at betting Pros NFL. 669 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 2: Also subscribe to our YouTube 670 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,400 Speaker 4: Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.