WEBVTT - Black Friday Markets; Dollar Heads for Worst Week Since August

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm John Tucker. Here

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<v Speaker 2>are these stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 3>John, we begin with a look this morning at today's

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<v Speaker 3>shortened trading session. The SMP is on course for its

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<v Speaker 3>strongest months since February, part of an advance of twenty

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<v Speaker 3>six percent in twenty twenty four, but uncertainty remains. Wednesday's

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<v Speaker 3>economic data caused investors to recalibrate their rate cut bets,

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<v Speaker 3>and looming tariffs or threatened tariffs, at least from the

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<v Speaker 3>incoming Trump administration, is weighing on specific sectors. As you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 3>treasury yields fell, the dollar is headed for its biggest

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<v Speaker 3>weekly loss in three months. New York University professor Emeritith

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<v Speaker 3>Nuriel Rabini Warren's tariffs could have for a broader effect

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<v Speaker 3>on markets.

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<v Speaker 4>Some of the economic policies of Trump may lead to

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<v Speaker 4>high economic growth, to being pro business, keeping tax or

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<v Speaker 4>it's low, I mean, but unfortunately many of the other

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<v Speaker 4>policies are going to have an implication of hiring, inflation

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<v Speaker 4>and lower economic growth. The first thing he has already

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<v Speaker 4>announced is going to be tired against Mexico, Kinada, and China.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's only the beginning.

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<v Speaker 3>And why you Professor Meritis Nuriel Robedi expects traditional haven

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<v Speaker 3>trades like the popular sixty to forty portfolio will underperform

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<v Speaker 3>in an inflationary environment.

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<v Speaker 5>Well.

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<v Speaker 2>The uncertainty of Trump's economic policies, Nathan is causing some

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<v Speaker 2>movement in currencies. The paes who gained following a call

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<v Speaker 2>between President Electrump and Mexico's president this week. Trump posted

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<v Speaker 2>on social media the call is, saying it was productive

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<v Speaker 2>and that she agreed to stop migration through Mexico. She

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<v Speaker 2>responded saying that Mexico is not necessarily closing its borders.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg spoke with DHL Group CEO to Bias Meyer about

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<v Speaker 2>how businesses are managing it, sting he hasn't seen clear

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<v Speaker 2>signals that anyone's front running the tariffs, hot to.

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<v Speaker 5>Say, but there's volume in the last weeks. We see

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<v Speaker 5>that in ocean freight, We see that in air freight.

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<v Speaker 5>The year has been quite volatile. We had very strong

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<v Speaker 5>exports out of China for many weeks on the ocean

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<v Speaker 5>freight side, especially, so strong growth there, but it has

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<v Speaker 5>been volatile. So it's hard to call out whether there's

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<v Speaker 5>really a strong element of that.

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<v Speaker 2>Dhl' CEO Tobias Meyer says he's seen diversification of supply

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<v Speaker 2>chains in countries like Mexico and elsewhere.

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<v Speaker 3>In currency moves, John the yen has breached one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and fifty against the dollar following inflation data out of Japan.

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<v Speaker 3>Tokyo consumer prices came in hotter than expected, leading to

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<v Speaker 3>increased bets on further policy normalization. It's raised expectations that

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<v Speaker 3>the Bank of Japan will raise rates in December, with

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<v Speaker 3>the swaps market factoring in a sixty one percent chance

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<v Speaker 3>of a rate hike this month and checking the end

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<v Speaker 3>right now, it is stronger against the dollar one fifty

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<v Speaker 3>point one five.

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<v Speaker 2>Looking more broadly at markets, Nathan wall Street's macro traders

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<v Speaker 2>they're heading for their worst year since the pandemic. Let's

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<v Speaker 2>get more on this from Bloomberg's Tiba out of Bio.

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<v Speaker 6>Investor confidence in making big macro calls this year has

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<v Speaker 6>dwindled as data surprises have whiplashed bets on central bank

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<v Speaker 6>interest rate cuts, a too close to call us election,

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<v Speaker 6>and the shock unwind of a once popular yen funded

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<v Speaker 6>carry trade also rattled markets. As a result, some two

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<v Speaker 6>hundred and fifty firms, including Goldman, Sachs and JP morgan

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<v Speaker 6>A forecast to make seventeen percent less this year from

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<v Speaker 6>trading G ten rates and nine percent less for currencies.

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<v Speaker 6>That's according to analytics company Coalition Greenwich. The bright Spot

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<v Speaker 6>currency trading is expected to pick up in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 6>five and twenty twenty six in London tiwa at abayo

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<v Speaker 6>Bloomberg Radio all right.

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<v Speaker 7>Tiwa, thank you.

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<v Speaker 3>Bitcoin is headed back toward the one hundred thousand level

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<v Speaker 3>as President Elect Trump embraces the broader crypto industry, ballstering

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<v Speaker 3>the upward trend as a group of about a dozen

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<v Speaker 3>US bitcoin ETFs from issuers including black Rock and Fidelity.

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<v Speaker 3>They've attracted six point two billion dollars so far in

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<v Speaker 3>that's according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The previous peak

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<v Speaker 3>earlier this year was six billion dollars. In checking bitcoin

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<v Speaker 3>right now, it's up one point four percent at close

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<v Speaker 3>to ninety six thousand, five hundred.

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<v Speaker 2>And turning back to the US now and a look

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<v Speaker 2>at to big tech, the Federal Trade Commission announced it's

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<v Speaker 2>open to an anti trust investigation of Microsoft, drilling into

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<v Speaker 2>everything from the company's cloud computing and software licensing businesses

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<v Speaker 2>to cyber security offerings and artificial intelligence products. Bloomberg Anti

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<v Speaker 2>trust reporter Josh Cisco says this is the first step

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<v Speaker 2>and what's expected to be a pretty long process.

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<v Speaker 8>It's kind they've been working up to this for about

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<v Speaker 8>a year, doing sort of informal information requests and interviews,

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<v Speaker 8>and now this is the first time they've compelled Microsoft

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<v Speaker 8>to turn over what will end up being a tremendous

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<v Speaker 8>amount of information.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Josh Cisco says the emptc's investigation could slow in

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<v Speaker 2>a second Trump administration was just promoting more deregulation.

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<v Speaker 3>And elsewhere in big tech. John Australia has passed a

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<v Speaker 3>law banning children under sixteen from social media platforms like Facebook,

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<v Speaker 3>Instagram and TikTok. The tech companies will be responsible for

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<v Speaker 3>enforcing the ban and will face fines if they don't comply.

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<v Speaker 3>Polling suggests Australian citizens back the move, but some argue

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<v Speaker 3>it will not achieve the aim of protecting children from

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<v Speaker 3>harmful content. Here's Australia's Green Party Senator Sarah Hanson.

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<v Speaker 1>Young doesn't actually make social media safer for young people.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's the devastating thing about this, because we know

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<v Speaker 1>that there are families who are struggling with this. We

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<v Speaker 1>know there are young people who are struggling with their

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<v Speaker 1>body image, their connection with their community, their peers, young

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<v Speaker 1>people who are finding themselves addicted to these dangerous algorithms.

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<v Speaker 1>But this bill doesn't do.

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<v Speaker 5>Any of that.

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<v Speaker 3>Sarah Hanson Young spoke there in the Australian Senate. Meta

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<v Speaker 3>x and other social media platforms have also expressed strong

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<v Speaker 3>opposition to this new law.

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<v Speaker 2>And let's go to geopolitics now. After the US media

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<v Speaker 2>had a cease fire deal between Israel and Lebanon earlier

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<v Speaker 2>this week, there is hope for reaching a deal to

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<v Speaker 2>free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 2>Binya Benetna, who told Israel's Channel fourteen his government's doing

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<v Speaker 2>many things, as he put it, to advance the freeing

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<v Speaker 2>of the hostages. Met Ye, who says the killing of

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas's leader, yeah, yeswinwar is opening an opportunity to reach

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<v Speaker 2>an agreement.

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<v Speaker 3>And there are new developments as well, John in the

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<v Speaker 3>war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is warning his

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<v Speaker 3>forces could strike decision making centers in Ukraine's capital Kiev

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<v Speaker 3>with new ballistic missiles as retaliation for attacks on Russia

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<v Speaker 3>with Western missiles. Russia launched an experimental intermediate range ballistic

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<v Speaker 3>missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and says it

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<v Speaker 3>may fire it again in combat.

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<v Speaker 2>And finally, a look at Saudi backed Live Golf, which

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<v Speaker 2>is said to be weighing a possible merger with Europe's

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<v Speaker 2>DP World Tour. If that's successful, it would cement Live

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<v Speaker 2>Golf's position in the golfing calendar and give the DP

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<v Speaker 2>World Tour previously known as the DP European Tour, significant

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<v Speaker 2>financial haft. The talks come as expectations of a deal

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<v Speaker 2>between the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour

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<v Speaker 2>they edge closer. And that brings us to five o

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<v Speaker 2>eight on Wall Street Time Now for a look at

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<v Speaker 2>some of the other stories making news in New York

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<v Speaker 2>and around the world. Hem For that, we're joined by

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Denise Pella Greeney.

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<v Speaker 7>Denise, good morning, Good morning to you, John Well.

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<v Speaker 9>Protesters clashed with police in the capital of Georgia in

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<v Speaker 9>eastern Europe. That's after the ruling party announced it was

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<v Speaker 9>delaying talks with the European Union on the country's potential

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<v Speaker 9>membership in the plock for four years. Police used teargas,

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<v Speaker 9>pepper spray, physical force early this morning as a group

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<v Speaker 9>of people rallied near the Parliament building. Their forty three

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<v Speaker 9>people detained, their dozens hurt. Apparently In that story, Notre

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<v Speaker 9>Dame Cathedral in France unveiling its new interior five years

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<v Speaker 9>after that devastating fire. Today it's a watershed in the

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<v Speaker 9>rebirth from its devastating fire in twenty nineteen. The occasion

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<v Speaker 9>is French President Emanuel Macron's final visit to the construction

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<v Speaker 9>site to see the restored interiors for himself before all

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<v Speaker 9>the proceedings today. A messy rollback of pandemic era regulations

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<v Speaker 9>in New York City. Many of those outdoor dining sheds

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<v Speaker 9>we've been using, they were still standing as of last

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<v Speaker 9>night and early this morning. John Monica Jimenez is the

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<v Speaker 9>night shift manager at Old John's luncheonet on the Upper

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<v Speaker 9>West Side of Manhattan.

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<v Speaker 3>But for our business, no plans to actually take this down, No,

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<v Speaker 3>yea yeah, And.

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<v Speaker 9>She says she's not removing them today. The deadline though,

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<v Speaker 9>is today Global News twenty four hours a day and

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<v Speaker 9>whenever you want it with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Denise Pelaguini,

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<v Speaker 9>and this is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Thanks Denise, and that brings us to find

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<v Speaker 2>ten of Wall Street time down for the Bloomberg Sports

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<v Speaker 2>Update being brought to you by Tri State Audi. And

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<v Speaker 2>for that we bring in Bloomberg's band Schwartzman.

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<v Speaker 7>Hello Dan, Good morning John.

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<v Speaker 10>The Lions got the NFL Thanksgiving Tripleheader off and running

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<v Speaker 10>by winning their tenth game in a row to improved

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<v Speaker 10>to eleven and one on the season with a twenty

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<v Speaker 10>three to twenty win over the Bears, who.

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<v Speaker 7>Have now dropped six games in a row. Chicago did

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<v Speaker 7>have a chance.

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<v Speaker 10>At least tie the game with time running out, but

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<v Speaker 10>inexplicably let precious seconds run off the clock despite still

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<v Speaker 10>having a time out.

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<v Speaker 7>Bears head coach Matt ebra Flusto.

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<v Speaker 10>Says he thought the team handled the clock properly at

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<v Speaker 10>the end.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I like what we did there.

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<v Speaker 11>Again, once it's under seven, you know you're gonna you're

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<v Speaker 11>gonna call you know, time out there or actually under twelve,

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<v Speaker 11>and then really you don't have an option, you know,

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<v Speaker 11>because it's third to fourth, you got to throw it

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<v Speaker 11>into the end zone then, So to me, it's uh,

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<v Speaker 11>I think we handled it the right way.

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<v Speaker 10>Matt's curtsyvespn dot Com Giants are now losers the seventh

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<v Speaker 10>straight after the twenty seven to twenty loss to the

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<v Speaker 10>Cowboys in Dallas. Drew Locke got the start for the

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<v Speaker 10>Giants as Timy Devitos ruled out with an injury. Elsewhere,

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<v Speaker 10>Packers dominated the Dolphins thirty to seventeen to Lambo Fields

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<v Speaker 10>improved to nine and three on the season as Short

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<v Speaker 10>and Love threw for two touchdowns. Both the NBA and

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<v Speaker 10>the NHL took the day off for Thanksgiving, but at

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<v Speaker 10>full schedules today, with the next starting things off by

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<v Speaker 10>visiting the Charlotte Hornets at noon. Elshere, the Brooklyn Nets

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<v Speaker 10>are hosting the Orlando Magic. The Boston Celtics are in

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<v Speaker 10>Chicago facing the Bulls, where the Lakers are hosting the

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<v Speaker 10>Oklahoma City thunder Rangers. They're at the Flyers to start

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<v Speaker 10>the busy day off in the NHL, with the Islanders

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<v Speaker 10>on the road to the Capitols, while the Bruins are

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<v Speaker 10>home for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Other big matchups include Winnipeg

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<v Speaker 10>visiting Vegas, Carolina, home for the Florida Panthers, when the

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<v Speaker 10>Dallas Stars are hosting Colorado.

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<v Speaker 7>In tennis, five time Grand.

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<v Speaker 10>Slam winner, second seeded egsh Fiatec accepted a one month

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<v Speaker 10>suspension for testing positive for a banned substance.

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<v Speaker 7>The former world's.

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<v Speaker 10>Number one failed the test back in August, but formerly

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<v Speaker 10>admitted the violation this week while accepting her penalty. That's

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<v Speaker 10>your Bloomberg Sports update. I'm Dan Schwartzman, Nathan and John.

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<v Speaker 7>Coast to coast.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM and around the

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<v Speaker 3>world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app.

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<v Speaker 7>This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. As we head into a

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<v Speaker 3>holiday shortened day of trading on this Black Friday, investors

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<v Speaker 3>might want to be getting as much of a jump

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<v Speaker 3>on the holiday deals as everybody else, but we do

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<v Speaker 3>still have a slew of economic data to tie jest

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<v Speaker 3>before we get into the final trading month of twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four, and as we continue to assess what has

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<v Speaker 3>been a remarkable bull run for stocks this year. Joining

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<v Speaker 3>US now. Bloomberg News equities reporter Joe Easton, Joe, good morning.

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<v Speaker 3>It really has been tough to derail the bull this year,

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<v Speaker 3>has it not?

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<v Speaker 12>It has indeed, Nathan, and we are potentially looking to

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<v Speaker 12>see some small gains continuing that theme in the US

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<v Speaker 12>futures today. As you mentioned earlier, is it shortened trading there,

0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:57.080
<v Speaker 12>but really the US is out shining. You're once again,

0:11:57.120 --> 0:11:59.960
<v Speaker 12>I mean you're at European stocks lower on the day,

0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:02.520
<v Speaker 12>but for now we are actually seeing a little bit

0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:04.720
<v Speaker 12>of a sentiment change. An interesting note out from Bank

0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:08.000
<v Speaker 12>of America today saying that they are upgrading European stocks

0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.720
<v Speaker 12>while they continue to like the US equity market, they

0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.960
<v Speaker 12>reckon the conditions in terms of credit conditions here in

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.240
<v Speaker 12>Europe are actually getting a bit better, so kind of

0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.360
<v Speaker 12>changing their view in terms of potentially shifting some more

0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:23.240
<v Speaker 12>capital towards at this region. But we really can't keep

0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:25.640
<v Speaker 12>up with the gains that we've seen over in the US,

0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:28.200
<v Speaker 12>double digit gains over there, of course, whereas in the

0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.559
<v Speaker 12>Europe we are just seeing small gains on a year

0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:31.320
<v Speaker 12>to day basis.

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.240
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, certainly a lot of the games that we've seen

0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:36.320
<v Speaker 3>this year have been driven by the AI trade. But

0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 3>then all this excitement, or at least initially around the

0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:45.400
<v Speaker 3>election of president like Donald Trump, where does the trajectory

0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:46.520
<v Speaker 3>seem to lay here?

0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:51.280
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, So I think the most recent take is on

0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:55.000
<v Speaker 12>Trump's appointments to his cabinet, of course, and potentially the

0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 12>latest reading is that they might not be as kind

0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.680
<v Speaker 12>of hawkish in terms of some of their policies in

0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:03.640
<v Speaker 12>terms of tariffs in that kind of issue there. So

0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:05.800
<v Speaker 12>I think that's what the market's going to be holding

0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 12>on too. But obviously with that there's an implication for

0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.439
<v Speaker 12>the dollar and how that impacts the markets going forward.

0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:14.760
<v Speaker 12>But in terms of Europe, we do need to see

0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:16.400
<v Speaker 12>a bit of an easing in some of the retor

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.960
<v Speaker 12>rhetoric around tariffs. We did, of course see that report

0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.240
<v Speaker 12>earlier this week that we could be getting some harsh

0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 12>measures from the US and that hit our market. I

0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:28.920
<v Speaker 12>think the AI trade, I think it's maybe played a

0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:30.760
<v Speaker 12>lot of its course out at the moment, so I'm

0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:33.360
<v Speaker 12>not too upbeat on that element. I think a lot

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:35.480
<v Speaker 12>of it is going to come down to the White House,

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:36.320
<v Speaker 12>as you mentioned there.

0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.840
<v Speaker 3>Of course, we had that data cornucopia on Wednesday. What's

0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:47.040
<v Speaker 3>the takeaway there, particularly around the personal consumption of expenditures index,

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:52.400
<v Speaker 3>that might be suggesting that that last mile around disinflation

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:54.640
<v Speaker 3>indeed can be the toughest.

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:57.960
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, no, I think I would agree with that, And

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.000
<v Speaker 12>actually you don't want to keep flicking back to Europe,

0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.480
<v Speaker 12>but given I am here, we have actually just literally

0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 12>around ten to fifteen minutes ago, got in the Euro

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.839
<v Speaker 12>Area inflation and it is kind of showing a similar thing.

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:13.280
<v Speaker 12>We're actually kind of struggling to come down from those levels.

0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:17.080
<v Speaker 12>So inflation back above two percent in Europe potentially not

0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.480
<v Speaker 12>enough to derail the ECB from cutting their interest rate.

0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:22.120
<v Speaker 12>That seems to be the take here. So we have

0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:25.960
<v Speaker 12>actually seen some bond deals coming down and also the

0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:28.360
<v Speaker 12>euro actually weakening very slightly. But I think it's a

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.880
<v Speaker 12>similar thing. As you say, it's very hard to get

0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:33.960
<v Speaker 12>past that last bit of inflation. All these things tend

0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:37.080
<v Speaker 12>to come on lagging effects. We all know that this

0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 12>will be hurting our bottom lines, our wallets for much

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.040
<v Speaker 12>longer in terms of the higher rates on mortgages and

0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:44.840
<v Speaker 12>that kind of thing. So I think there's a little

0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.120
<v Speaker 12>bit left to play on that trade at the moment,

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:48.080
<v Speaker 12>and when it.

0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:52.600
<v Speaker 3>Comes to the possibility of hawkish tariff talk from President

0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:56.480
<v Speaker 3>elect Trump. Does that lead to kind of a budding

0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 3>of heads between what we could see on the policy

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.240
<v Speaker 3>front and what we can get from the Federal Reserve?

0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:02.120
<v Speaker 3>Got about a minute lap.

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.480
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, No, I think that it's going to be the

0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.320
<v Speaker 12>two forces going pretty much the opposite direction. I mean,

0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.080
<v Speaker 12>if the FED wants to ease rates and then there

0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:14.520
<v Speaker 12>is possible higher inflation coming from these tariffs, and tariffs

0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:17.280
<v Speaker 12>are expected to be inflation or of course therefore lifting

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.640
<v Speaker 12>the dollar, then it's very difficult for then the Fed

0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:21.960
<v Speaker 12>to come in and start really easing their policy further

0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.240
<v Speaker 12>if there's going to be upside to both the dollar

0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.800
<v Speaker 12>and inflation more broadly, So therefore it's kind of going

0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:31.400
<v Speaker 12>against it. We'll have to see what Trump has to

0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:34.040
<v Speaker 12>say more about the actual Fed himself. Obviously, when he

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:37.280
<v Speaker 12>was in power last time, he wasn't afraid to kind

0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:40.280
<v Speaker 12>of throw about a bit of criticism on monetary policy.

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.400
<v Speaker 12>So we'll see what happens there. But as you say,

0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:45.880
<v Speaker 12>it's kind of two really powerful forces pushing in the

0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.760
<v Speaker 12>opposite direction. So it's going to be an interesting start

0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:50.360
<v Speaker 12>to the year next year when we get there.

0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.440
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