1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Catch just live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: on applecar Player or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:26,119 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 2: Let's check out with Anika Gup that she's the director 7 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 2: Macroeconomic Research at Wisdom Tree. Anico, as you sit back 8 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 2: here and think about these markets here, what are some 9 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 2: of the key drivers for you? 10 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 3: Is it the FED? Is it the economy? Is it 11 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 3: corporate earnings? What are you thinking about here? 12 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,160 Speaker 4: I think it's a combination of the three. I think, 13 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 4: you know, we've we've moved from this goldilocks period of 14 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 4: you know, progress on disinflation helping to drive you know, 15 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 4: further monetary easing, and I think that's taken a bit 16 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 4: of a especially in the US, since we've received much 17 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 4: stronger economic data. We're now beginning to see that benefit 18 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 4: from lower risk premiere being offset by rising bond deals. 19 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 4: And that's you know, that's based essentially because investors are 20 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 4: now reducing the amount of expected FED rate cuts, and 21 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:24,279 Speaker 4: that's having an imbackground equity markets and obviously the market 22 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 4: does also remain on dender hooks because we have the 23 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 4: upcoming US elections and you know, they're trying to figure 24 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:36,040 Speaker 4: out whether these improving odds of a Trump victory, you know, 25 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 4: actually do come to fruition. 26 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 5: No shortage of things for investors to worry about. Anka 27 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 5: and the top of the show, so Paul mentioned that 28 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 5: gold has come in a little bit, but still at 29 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 5: twenty seven to thirty three, we've seen it hit records 30 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 5: here almost day after day. How are you thinking about 31 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 5: gold and what do you see as driving that asset. 32 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 5: Is it simply maybe not fear, but concern about the 33 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 5: election outcome? Is it something more than that? 34 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 4: I mean, you know, over the past month, we've seen 35 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 4: a strong, you know, disc correlation between the US dollar 36 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 4: and gold, alongside really yields and gold. So despite the 37 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 4: fact that the dollar has strengthened, despite the fact that 38 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 4: real yields have increased, uh, you know, gold still continues 39 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 4: to attain multiple record highs. And that's because we're seeing 40 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 4: a lot of strength on the physical market. So we're 41 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 4: actually seeing uh, central banks increase their purchases of gold, 42 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 4: We're seeing you know, investors increase their purchases in gold, 43 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 4: and that's that's been you know, one of the big drivers. 44 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 4: Now since the Rush Ukraine War, we actually saw flows 45 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 4: into gold linked ETF's decline. But since June we've had 46 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 4: you know, about thirteen consecutive weeks of inflows into gold 47 00:02:55,800 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 4: related ETFs actually increase. So that's been a new catlests 48 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 4: in the horizon drive gold prices. And I think the reason, 49 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 4: the overarching reason for why investors are you know, flocking 50 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 4: towards gold is primarily because of rising geopolitical risks, you know, 51 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 4: with the tensions in the Middle East still not looking 52 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 4: like they've subsided. And at the same time, we have 53 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 4: you know, the U S elections, the upcoming US elections, 54 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 4: and that is also you know, triggering a lot of volatility. 55 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 2: All right, So let's focus on the US equity market 56 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 2: and anika. You know, we've seen this market that's been 57 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 2: kind of driven by you know, great performance out of 58 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 2: a handful of stocks called the Magnificent Seven and so 59 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 2: on and so forth. A there's a lot of folks 60 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 2: that say that that's not really healthy for the market. 61 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 2: Are you concerned about that lack of breath or how 62 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 2: do you think about this US equity markets just in general. 63 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, we still remain positive. You know, we've actually, we 64 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 4: expect obviously the bar has been lured for Q three 65 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 4: earning season now looking at average earnings growth of around 66 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 4: four percent. However, if we look ahead, a lot of 67 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 4: that margin expansion for the S and P five hundred 68 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 4: is primarily being driven by the technology sector as well 69 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 4: as the communications sector. I mean, for technology, it's accounting 70 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 4: for around eighteen percent earnings growth for twenty twenty five 71 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 4: and fifteen percent for communications services. So they are going 72 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 4: to be the key drivers for earnings going forward. And 73 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,119 Speaker 4: I think given the fact that the bar is so low, 74 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 4: already so low for Q three, we expect you know, 75 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 4: quite a few companies to actually meet or exceed that bar, 76 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 4: which should drive a performance higher. 77 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 5: We've listened to a lot of interviews this week from 78 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 5: our colleagues in Washington as the IMF and World Bank 79 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 5: meetings take place, and Christine Legard, the ECB president, was 80 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 5: one of them who came through our studios and spoke 81 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 5: with Francine Lockwin. And something that she said. President Leguard 82 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 5: said is that she's confident in the direction the ECB 83 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 5: is taken here given and what we're seeing Germany and Italy, 84 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 5: Germany on pace for yet another year of contraction. Are 85 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 5: there opportunities in Europe right now? And where do you 86 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 5: see them? 87 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: Are there? 88 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 5: Are there equities opportunities in Europe as you see them? 89 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 4: Absolutely? I think, you know, the pessimism towards Europe is 90 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 4: over overstated. We already saw the iPhone numbers today for Germany, 91 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 4: you know, show a slight upward trajectory, very different from 92 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 4: what we've been seeing over the past few months for 93 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 4: the greater part of this year. The key opportunity right 94 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 4: now is in the small caps segment for European equities. 95 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 4: That's because earnings for European small caps and within the 96 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 4: small caps primarily until towards of value is you know, 97 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 4: is showing more than a sixteen percent earnings growth rise 98 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 4: over the prior year. And if you compare that to 99 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 4: MSCI Europe, which is representing you know, the lot more 100 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 4: of the large cap segment of the market, we're looking 101 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,600 Speaker 4: at earnings expectation actually down eight percent. So the opportunity 102 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 4: is primarily in the small cap space, timpted towards more 103 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 4: value oriented sectors. And that's because the small caps were 104 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 4: the most penalized when Bates rules. It's such a sharp 105 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 4: base and now that we're going to see a much 106 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 4: sharper unwind of easing from Europe as opposed to the US, 107 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 4: that's going to asymmetrically benefit the smaller cap segment of 108 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 4: the market in comparison to the large cap. 109 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 2: Nika, thank you so much for joining us. I really 110 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 2: appreciate getting a few minutes from your time a Nica Gupta. 111 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 2: She's the director of macroeconomic research for the Equities and 112 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 2: Commodities business at Wisdom Tree. She is in London, one 113 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 2: King William Street, which is literally right around the corner 114 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 2: from the Bloomberg headquarters in London and Queen Victoria Street. 115 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 116 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 1: weekday after noons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen 117 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: on Apple car Play and and Broyd Auto with a 118 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 119 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew joins us here Balance of Power host. He's 120 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 2: down in Washington, DC. He is hip deep in all 121 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:18,679 Speaker 2: the that is going on on both of these campaigns. Here, Joe, 122 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 2: it looks like the Democrats are kind of trying to 123 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 2: rely on some star power. But for me, I was 124 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 2: just mentioned to Dave David Gera Joe, this star power thing, 125 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 2: whether it's my boy Bruce Springsteen or whether it's Beyonce. 126 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 2: I mean, does that even It's almost like that's so 127 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 2: nineteen nineties or two thousands. I mean, is that even 128 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 2: relevant anymore? 129 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 6: Do you think? 130 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 7: Well, I guess the bendz that you invite. 131 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 8: But there's no evidence to suggest that celebrity endorsements move 132 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 8: a needle when it comes to polling. 133 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:48,679 Speaker 7: But look, we're at a tied race. 134 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 8: You saw Bloomberg's Swing state survey yesterday forty nine forty nine. 135 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 8: Did you see today Siena College New York Times forty 136 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 8: eight forty eight. This is as as tied up as 137 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 8: it gets. So the campaign trying anything they can. And yeah, 138 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 8: Kamala Harris is surrounding herself with some pretty heavy celebrity. 139 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 8: Willie Nelson's going to be up there tonight as well. 140 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 8: He had a big Cannabis for Kamala thing. The other 141 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 8: I don't know if that helps either, but yeah, nuh, yeah, 142 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 8: no surprise at all. Donald Trump is doing it himself, right. 143 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 8: You got Eminem for Kamala Harris. He's got kid rock 144 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 8: for Donald Trump. He's gonna be with Joe Rogan. 145 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:24,239 Speaker 7: He was with Tucker crosson the night before. 146 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 8: Everybody's grabbing whomever they think has an audience that goes 147 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 8: for influencers and all these podcasters getting interviews because they're 148 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 8: flailing guys. They're throwing whatever they can at the wall 149 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 8: to try to beat each other by what will be 150 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 8: probably less than a point if these polls are true. 151 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:43,599 Speaker 5: Joe, Let's talk a bit about the rally that was 152 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 5: held in Atlanta yesterday. So yes, Free Springsteen was there. 153 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 5: President Obama was there as well with Kamala Harris, the 154 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 5: first time the two of them appeared on the trail together. 155 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 5: The campaign saying, this is the largest crowd that they've 156 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 5: had for a rally yet, I think twenty three thousand 157 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 5: people in that venue. What was the message? What is 158 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 5: the message from the Harris campaign? Let's start there with 159 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 5: eleven days to go till election day? Is it simply 160 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 5: focused on making sure you get to the polls, but 161 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 5: more so than that, voting early if you can. 162 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 8: There's a lot of that, and you know, look, there's 163 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,079 Speaker 8: I don't know that they have crystallized a closing message. 164 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,719 Speaker 8: Both sides have really just been kind of shooting from 165 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 8: the hip, and we've seen these messages evolving. 166 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 7: Here's the best I'll do for you. 167 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,959 Speaker 8: What we're hearing from the Harris campaign. He has an 168 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 8: enemy's list, we have a to do list. That's what 169 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 8: we're hearing a lot about. But also going back to 170 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,679 Speaker 8: this threat to democracy idea that Joe Biden frankly never 171 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 8: really connected on, and a lot of people are wondering 172 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,960 Speaker 8: why Kamala Harris isn't talking more about the economy than democracy. 173 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 8: She's going to be back in Washington next week, one 174 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 8: week before the election on Tuesday, standing on the ellipse 175 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 8: where we all remember Donald Trump holding that speech in 176 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,559 Speaker 8: that rally on January sixth, to try to bring people 177 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 8: back to that moment. So I think there are a 178 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 8: lot of different closing arguments coming from both campaigns. Last night, 179 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 8: Tyler Perry, Samuel L. Je Jacks, and Spike Lee. I 180 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 8: could keep going with the names. They all got up 181 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 8: to the podium to reinforce those points. 182 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 3: Joe. 183 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 2: A lot of folks are saying that what's going to 184 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 2: be really key to this election is getting out the vote. 185 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,559 Speaker 3: And participation. What do we know about maybe turnout? What 186 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 3: do we think turnout is going to be in this election? 187 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 8: Probably an all time high based on what we're seeing 188 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 8: the campaigns certainly hope so. And I'm saying that because 189 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 8: of just the incredible closeness in the race, the amount 190 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 8: of engagement that we're seeing, but also the early voting 191 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 8: has been setting records, and it's been setting records in 192 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 8: states that have not always been fully leaning into early voting, 193 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 8: with Republicans specifically in states like Arizona pull in ballots 194 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 8: more often than Democrats are. 195 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 7: So there's a bit of noise out there. 196 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 8: But I can tell you guys, people are voting early 197 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 8: in person, by absentee, by mail, and that's also going 198 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 8: to be a big reason why we have to wait 199 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 8: a long time before this race is called. I mean, 200 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 8: we're really going out of our way to the warrant 201 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 8: our viewers and listeners that it could be if not 202 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:01,439 Speaker 8: a week before we know. 203 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 5: A while, Joe, we've talked a lot about the role 204 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 5: Elon Musk is playing in Pennsylvania in particular, and there 205 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 5: was this blockbuster piece in the Wall Street Journal that 206 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 5: Trump last night indicating that Elon Musk has talked repeatedly 207 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 5: continues to talk. I think it alleged, Yeah, with Vladimir Putin, 208 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 5: the president of Russia. Walk us through the implications of that. 209 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 5: So we've got Elon Musk who's reportedly in regular contact 210 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 5: with the Russian president, Donald Trump, who's reportedly in regular 211 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,839 Speaker 5: contact with the Russian president. And I don't need the 212 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 5: reportedly here when I say that these two met are 213 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 5: talking to each other all the time. Elon Muskin and 214 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 5: Donald Trump are walk us through why this is such 215 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 5: a significant story. Again, this is something the journal has reported, 216 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,559 Speaker 5: we haven't we haven't confirmed, but certainly made some seismic 217 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 5: waves over the course of the night. 218 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 8: Well, look, I mean this goes back to what Donald 219 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 8: Trump likes to call Russia Russia Russia, suggesting that this 220 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 8: was all a hoax, the idea that he was colluding 221 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 8: somehow with Russia or Vladimir Putin, or at least enjoying 222 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 8: the benefits of some interference. We know that his relationship 223 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 8: is something that has rubbed people the wrong way. He 224 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 8: says that it's it's a good thing that it in 225 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 8: fact strengthens our nation to have a leader with relationships 226 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 8: with other world leaders. But look, we don't really have 227 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 8: to go to the degrees of separation here. 228 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,239 Speaker 7: If it's Elon Musk, Donald. 229 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 8: Trump, and Vladimir Putin and a triangle of communication, that's 230 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 8: a big deal. Elon Musk, according to these reports, in fact, 231 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 8: was asked to do a favor by Vladimir Putin and 232 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 8: not turn on the Starlink satellite service over Taiwan as 233 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 8: a favorite decision. 234 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 7: Ping. 235 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:29,680 Speaker 8: So you know, it's not like they're trading recipes on 236 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,559 Speaker 8: the phone here, guys. This actually could have major geopolitical implications. 237 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 3: What do we know, Joe about down ballot? 238 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 2: I'm kind of thinking about, you know, we really have 239 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 2: to get a handle on who's going to be in 240 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 2: the House, who's going to be in a Senate. 241 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 3: What's the thinking with DC these days? 242 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 8: You know, the conventional wisdom for some time, and I 243 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 8: don't think it's any different right now, is that the 244 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 8: Senate flips from Democrat to Republican, the House flips from 245 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 8: Republican to Democrat, and then we'll see what happens in 246 00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 8: the White House. Both are, of course, dealing with such 247 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 8: thin majorities that it wouldn't take a lot for either 248 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 8: to happen. This is a tough map for Democrats in 249 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 8: the Senate this year. There's some very difficult races when 250 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 8: you look across the swing states in particular, whether we're 251 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 8: talking about Pennsylvania, Ohio's a big one with shared brown Wisconsin. 252 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 8: The Senate race has us wondering if Democrats can keep 253 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 8: the majority the House. You know, it would take four 254 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 8: seats essentially to flip here, but it's going to take 255 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 8: some time. We might actually know the Senate on election night, 256 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 8: and I don't want to predict that, but there's a 257 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 8: good chance that we will or the following morning. 258 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 7: The House is going to take some time. 259 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 8: It states like New York and more specifically states out 260 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 8: west California that are going to take probably days to count. 261 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 8: And when we're only talking about a couple of seats here, 262 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 8: it's ironic to think that we will have to wait 263 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 8: days to know who controls the House of Representatives. But look, 264 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 8: we're coming up to New York, guys. I don't think 265 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 8: they're letting us go home until all this. 266 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 7: Stuff is called. So we're going to experience this together. 267 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 5: Paul Joe bringing up that Senate race in Ohio and 268 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 5: just the amount of money that's been poured into that 269 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 5: race in particular is just so extraordinary that we've become 270 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 5: kind of inured to how much he's fueling all of 271 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 5: these all of these campaigns and races. Joe, you mentioned 272 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 5: you're coming to New York. Donald Trump is coming here 273 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 5: as well on Sunday. He's going to be a Madison 274 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 5: Square Garden. Elon Musk reportedly is going to be there 275 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 5: as well. We've talked a lot about the Harris messaging 276 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 5: that we heard in Atlanta that we're going to hear 277 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 5: in Houston, where she goes today. What is his messaging being, 278 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 5: Ben and so you mentioned those those house races here 279 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 5: in New York. My guess my sense is that's that's 280 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 5: aside from the ego boost of playing Madison Square Garden 281 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 5: for Donald Trump, that's the importance of him coming here 282 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 5: to kind of see if he can keep arrest some 283 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 5: of those house seats away from Democrats in New York. 284 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 7: Well, that's one way to look at it. 285 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 8: I'm not sure that has any reason to do with 286 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 8: why he's actually going. To your point, he wanted to 287 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 8: play Madison Square Garden and look, it might be a 288 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 8: smart strategy. It's going to get all kinds of coverage. Yeah, 289 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 8: Elon will be there, even Mike Johnson on stage. Can 290 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 8: you imagine a year ago telling Mike Johnson he was 291 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 8: going to be playing Madison Square Gardening. 292 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 7: But yeah, it's a big deal. 293 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 8: I don't look, you know, I keep conjuring up image 294 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 8: of Led Zeppelin, and I think I'm showing my age 295 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 8: here because nobody I sit with in my row has 296 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 8: ever heard of the song remains the same, and they 297 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 8: keep telling me, no, it's Billy Joel. He wants to 298 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 8: be Billy Joel. Everybody wants to play Madison Square Garden. 299 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 8: So they're going to pay a million dollars to do it. 300 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 8: By the way, they're basically renting the plays out. And 301 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 8: I'll be honest, with the amount of coverage that will 302 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 8: probably generate, I suspect to be worth a lot more 303 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 8: than a million dollars. 304 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 7: So maybe it's not that silly. 305 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 3: Bad playing the garden. Why not? 306 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew, Thank you so much, Joe Matthew. He is 307 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 2: a host of balance of power. He is in Washington, DC, 308 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 2: he is right in the middle of it. Appreciate getting 309 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 2: a few minutes of his time. 310 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 311 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 312 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 313 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 314 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 315 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 2: Back in the day when I was a sell side analysts, 316 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 2: he went to Boston three four times a year to 317 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 2: shill for your II votes, which I got, by the way, 318 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 2: I own that town for a long time. One of 319 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 2: the places you went was Wellington Management. I mean solid 320 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 2: old money, crusty New York money. That's where you went. 321 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 2: Some smart people there. I never got off on the 322 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 2: fixed income floor. I went straight to the equity elevator 323 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 2: to the top there. 324 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 7: Yeah. 325 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 3: No, it's too much math. Bridge Kurana Joints is. 326 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 2: He's a senior managing director and he's a fixed income 327 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 2: portfolio manager at Wellington Management. Hey, Bridge, is our Federal 328 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 2: Reserve going to cut interest rates in November? Because I'm 329 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 2: looking at some of this economic David, even like the 330 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 2: industrial production numbers that came out today pretty solid across 331 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 2: the board. 332 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 3: What do you think our Fed's going to do? 333 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 9: Thanks for having me back. Yeah, I do think they 334 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 9: are going to cut about another twenty five basis points 335 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 9: in November. You know why has the Fed changed its 336 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 9: rhetoric to focus so much on the unemployment rate from 337 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 9: focusing on inflation. I really think it comes from their 338 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 9: change in view. They have this line that they've been 339 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 9: repeating quite often that the labor market is not the 340 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 9: source of the inflation in the economy, and that is 341 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 9: their biggest fear because that's what the nineteen seventies was about, 342 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 9: the wage price spiral, and now they don't believe in 343 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 9: they're right about that. I think that the leads speak 344 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 9: to the labor market not being the reason we have 345 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 9: inflation in the economy, and that means that they can 346 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 9: go back to their pre COVID policy of targeting the 347 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 9: neutral rate for the economy, which they think is about 348 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,360 Speaker 9: three percent. That's the level where they don't think policy 349 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 9: is expansionary, they don't think it's contractionary. And they're looking 350 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:21,880 Speaker 9: at the economy and they say, look, we're interest rates 351 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 9: are at five percent. We think three percent is neutral. 352 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 9: We have a lot of room to cut and we're still. 353 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 3: In restrictive territory. 354 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 9: So I think they're going to continue along this path 355 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 9: with that twenty five basis point cut. 356 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 5: For a neophyte like myself who has heard of our 357 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 5: star but just doesn't understand the intricacies of it, how 358 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 5: difficult is it for them to target this and how 359 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:42,120 Speaker 5: much disagreement is there among policymakers on that committee about 360 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 5: what it is? 361 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 9: So there's there, It's very hard to know. You only 362 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 9: know when you're either below it right. You don't know 363 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 9: in a real time. What you can do is you 364 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 9: can look at their estimates. So you go to that 365 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 9: dot plot that we all talk about, look at where 366 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,199 Speaker 9: their long term dot is. It's around three percent, and 367 00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 9: there's actually a lot of that's the spot where there's 368 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 9: consensus on So they think it's around three percent. But 369 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 9: I don't think that really matters whether or it's three, 370 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 9: three and a half or two and a half. The 371 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 9: point is that they're at five and they're dealing with 372 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 9: the inflation story, which is less pronounce than it was 373 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 9: two years ago, and so they're basically saying, Okay, maybe 374 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:16,360 Speaker 9: it's three and a half. Let's see what the economy 375 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 9: looks like when we get down to that three and 376 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 9: a half level. If it's still accelerating at that point. 377 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 9: Then yes, maybe the neutral rate is higher, but we 378 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 9: just know that we're much higher than that at this point. 379 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:27,360 Speaker 3: All right. 380 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 2: So if I'm in a fix and come business today, 381 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 2: I know I don't have to be a rock star. 382 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 5: I can sit in a two year treasury and get 383 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 5: you could get off on that floor. 384 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 3: I can get off on that floor. 385 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 2: Say hey, kids, I'm long the two year treasury. I'm 386 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,919 Speaker 2: clipping a four point zero five percent coupon. Should I 387 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 2: just do that or should I take some credit risk? 388 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 7: Yeah? 389 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,920 Speaker 9: I mean I do think that I think bonds are attractive. 390 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 9: I do think that when you look at credit spreads, 391 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 9: they are are quite tight right now. So investment grade spreads, 392 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 9: you know, looking at the bloombergency is less than one 393 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 9: hundred basis points. 394 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 3: Highield spreads below three hundred basis. 395 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 9: Points, you know, that is not a lot of compensation 396 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 9: for the riskser that are out there. I mean, we 397 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 9: are in the first quintile of spreads, and historically over 398 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:09,640 Speaker 9: the next three to four years, that does mean negative 399 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 9: excess returns for credit sectors. And I do think we 400 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 9: actually are seeing defaults and the distressed exchange ratio, which 401 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 9: is basically when your bonds get primed by other borrowers, 402 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 9: and so you know, we're seeing that increase. It's around 403 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 9: five point six percent right now, which is actually quite high. 404 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 9: And so you know, relative to defaults and recovery rates, 405 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:32,239 Speaker 9: we don't really feel you're being compensated very handsomely right 406 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 9: now in credit markets. 407 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 5: Let me go negative here and say we're things to 408 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 5: take a turn, were we to get this kind of 409 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,199 Speaker 5: phantom deep down turn or recession. How well equipped is 410 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 5: the Federal Reserve to deal with that at this point 411 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 5: in time when you look at through the policies that 412 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 5: they put in place, certainly the amount assets that they 413 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 5: bought as well at the the beginning to unwind. Should 414 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 5: we be worried about what tools remain in the FEDS toolkit? 415 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 9: I mean, I think given where the starting point of 416 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 9: policy rates is, they have a lot of tools. I 417 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 9: do think that this cycle is going to be different 418 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 9: if we do enter that downturn in that I think 419 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 9: as much as they're going to continue to use interest 420 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 9: rates as the primary tool to which they change monetary policy, 421 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 9: I think they're going to be loath to use the 422 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 9: balance sheet as aggressively as they did after COVID, and so, 423 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 9: you know, I think if there is a problem the 424 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 9: treasury market, I do think they will come in and 425 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 9: buy bonds like they did in March twenty twenty. But 426 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 9: I think they were roundly criticized for buying so many 427 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 9: agency mortgage backed securities after COVID and thereafter, and so 428 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 9: I don't think they're going to be doing that the 429 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 9: next round. And I do think that is an important 430 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,160 Speaker 9: point though. You know, we have been in this goldilocks 431 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 9: type environment and we don't think about what's coming up. 432 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 9: But if we do enter a recession, the FED is 433 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 9: not going to be as aggressive as we've seen after 434 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 9: the GFC or after COVID, and so you know, credit 435 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 9: investors should keeping that in mind that the tail is 436 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,440 Speaker 9: not as clipped as you may think. 437 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 2: September was the I think the biggest month for investment 438 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 2: grade new issuance on record. All the banks have been 439 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 2: flooding into the market with new issues. If I'm a 440 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 2: bond salesman like Morgan Stanley or JP Morgan, are you 441 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 2: guys at the. 442 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 3: Top of my call list? Do you buy new issue stuff? 443 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 2: I mean you're Wellington or do I just go to 444 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 2: all the hedge funds to buy this new stuff. 445 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 9: I mean, we're definitely a large asse manager, and so 446 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 9: we certainly, you know, we do buy the IG corporate market. 447 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 9: I do think it is interesting that we thought, we 448 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 9: kind of entered this year thinking that net issuance, so 449 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,719 Speaker 9: this is not only issuance, but it's also versus redemptions, 450 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 9: was going to be on the lighter side. We were 451 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 9: kind of thinking four hundred to five hundred billion, and 452 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 9: that was that was going to be kind of a 453 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 9: tailwind to credit markets because you just have less supply 454 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 9: than we've seen over the last few years. I've just 455 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 9: been almost surprised by how much issuance we've seen. I 456 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,360 Speaker 9: think gross is one point two one point three trillion, 457 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,439 Speaker 9: and even net issuance is kind of six hundred billion ish, 458 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 9: and so it definitely I've been surprised by two things. 459 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,919 Speaker 9: One the amount of supply we've seen in the investment 460 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,880 Speaker 9: grade corporate market, but just kind of the ravenous nature 461 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 9: with which you know, everyone's taking it down. 462 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 3: Its supply almost causes spread. 463 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 2: Why every book I see for these things, I don't 464 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:03,959 Speaker 2: care if it's a you know, PERI in a cat 465 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 2: Chow or JP Morgan. These things are over subscribed multiple 466 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 2: times in the bond market. I mean I expect that 467 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 2: from one of my IPOs back in the day, because 468 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 2: I was a great syndicate salesman, fixed investment, great debt. 469 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, it is interesting. 470 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 9: I think what people are really focusing on is the 471 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 9: high level of yields compared to the level of spreads. 472 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 9: You know, that's what we constantly hear. Well, spreads are tight, 473 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 9: but yields are high on a long term basis. I 474 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 9: do think that, you know, people are very focused on 475 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,640 Speaker 9: income right now in fixed income, focused on the income part. 476 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 9: I don't think people should really forget about the total 477 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 9: return nature of fixed income though as well. And you know, 478 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 9: I think we're talking a lot about the election these days, 479 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 9: as I'm sure you all are, and I think in 480 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 9: this the market's really pricing in a large percentage of 481 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 9: some kind of sweep. I think we should also think 482 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 9: about the other tail, though, what if we get divided government, 483 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 9: and in a divided government, you get that fiscal tightening, 484 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 9: you get perhaps you know, slowing economic growth than we've 485 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 9: had of the last few years, and that's an environment 486 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 9: where bon yields could actually fall fall a lot more 487 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:05,879 Speaker 9: than people think, and so, yeah, you don't want to 488 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 9: almost forget the other side where boniolds could fall. 489 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 5: We ask you one other question kind of tied to 490 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 5: the election, and we heard we've heard Donald Trump say 491 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 5: he'd like to advise the FED chair give him his 492 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 5: opinion on whether rage should go up or or down. 493 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 5: Going into the interview that he did with our editor 494 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 5: in chief John Mickelthwaite, Betsy Stevenson was making a very 495 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,399 Speaker 5: strong case that that shouldn't happen, that FED independence is 496 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 5: so important. I want to get your perspective, sort of 497 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 5: the market perspective on that. I think part of what 498 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 5: she was conveying in her comments was the bond market 499 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 5: in this country is propped up and fortified by the 500 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 5: fact that the FED has independence. Are folks like you 501 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 5: thinking about this, worried about this? How much do you 502 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 5: give credence to what the former president has been saying 503 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 5: about taking on that kind of new advisory role where 504 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 5: to be reelected? 505 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:56,399 Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, I do think central independence is extremely important, 506 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 9: and bond markets are good at pricing that in and 507 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 9: so I think one of the reasons we have seen 508 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 9: term premium rise with how the election might play out. 509 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:08,920 Speaker 9: Is because when you have political influence on a central bank, 510 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 9: you should get compensated for that risk and so and 511 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 9: particularly at the back end of the curve. And so 512 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 9: I think you're starting to see that materialize that if 513 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 9: this rhetoric continues an actual actions take place regarding it, 514 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 9: you should be compensated for more yield as a result 515 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 9: of that. Almost that you know, going back and forth 516 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 9: on different policies and what's the President saying versus what 517 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 9: the Fed's doing. And so I do think that term 518 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 9: premium has increased, and that's largely as a result of that. 519 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 2: I want to thank our good friend British Kuhana. He 520 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 2: is fixed and come portfolio manage at Wellington Management, Undergraduate 521 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 2: of Princeton, NBA at Harvard. 522 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:52,440 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 523 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 524 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 525 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,879 Speaker 1: us live every week day on YouTube and always on 526 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal. 527 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 2: You're daily look at the front pages around the world. 528 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 2: East Monday, What do you have for us UH today? 529 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 6: All right, Well, since David gur is here. We have 530 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 6: our political guru. Okay, so I found this story swings 531 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 6: Day voters apparently suffering from political ad fatigue. They are 532 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 6: tired of it. Residents in the seven battleground states, they've 533 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 6: been hit with you know, the lawn signs, the billboards, 534 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,880 Speaker 6: the TV ads. But on top of that, they're getting 535 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 6: the digital ads, social media that's in their scroll. They're 536 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,640 Speaker 6: getting text messages. I know you've said you've gotten texts. 537 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 5: Today, so you get a lot of the Pennsylvania stuff. 538 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 2: No, I just get ten to day, mostly from Democrats 539 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 2: party for money. 540 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 7: Okay, it's only. 541 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 3: I like, yeah, but you're right. 542 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,679 Speaker 2: So I want to ask Apple, so I always hit 543 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 2: the delete and report the spam doesn't stop. 544 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 9: It doesn't matter. 545 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:51,360 Speaker 3: No, it doesn't matter. 546 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 5: We'll work around that. 547 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, block the number. Oh should I do that? Yeah, okay, 548 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 3: I figure that out all. 549 00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 6: Right, although another number will probably get yes. 550 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 2: But I mean, I just you know, I used to 551 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 2: cover the television industry, and every two years when there's 552 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 2: an election cycle, the TV stations make just gobs of 553 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 2: money on political advertising, and it's in godsend to them. 554 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 3: But it's not good if you're a viewer in those states. 555 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,440 Speaker 6: No, in those states, they're just saying they're tired of it. 556 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 6: It's there, they're done. I'm wondering if it's going to 557 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 6: make them want to push not to vote. 558 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 5: Is effect right? 559 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 7: They're just tired out? 560 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, irritated. I can see that. 561 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, So that was the thing over there. Okay, so 562 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 6: we've been hearing the story about the e coli with 563 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 6: McDonald's and the quarter pounder. So now the restaurant industry 564 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 6: is on this high alert. So you have other restaurants 565 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 6: starting to do this. Burger King, Young Brands, a parent 566 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 6: of Taco Bell, Pizza Hut KFC, they removed the onions 567 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 6: because that has been said to be linked to the 568 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 6: Equal Eye outbreak. They're pulling the onions from their burgers. Also, 569 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:56,200 Speaker 6: Fat Brands that owns Johnny Rockets, other restaurants they're doing 570 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 6: the same thing. They're stopped using those tailor farm onions. 571 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 6: But it can be costly for some of these companies. 572 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 6: You remember the Chipotle outbreak. It cost them about twenty 573 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 6: five million, it says to settle criminal charges related to outbreaks, 574 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 6: and it. 575 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 7: Can last so long. 576 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,360 Speaker 5: I mean, it's a wait on the McDonald's stock now obviously, 577 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 5: but you look at Chipotle that lasted for years. I 578 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 5: feel like it was me Mickey D's. It actually is 579 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 5: the quarter pounder with cheeses, I guess get on several 580 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 5: states across the country. 581 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 3: So number two with the cooks. 582 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, so you know the numbers. 583 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's a number. It's been my order since 584 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 3: I was like fourteen. 585 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 4: Is that right? 586 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,200 Speaker 2: Number two of the comfort in that there is, Yeah, exactly. 587 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 2: You know, same thing with HOGI Haven and Princeton cheese. 588 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 2: Take Hogy, no tomatoes, but everything. 589 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 6: Else, do you supersize it? That's the question. 590 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 5: No, No, everything in moderation. 591 00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, exactly, that's right. I mean I could mcdoll's 592 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,199 Speaker 2: maybe once. You know, I used to do I mean, 593 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 2: traveling in airports. That was your excuse to then you 594 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 2: had to do it making deez er a Burger king 595 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 2: because you're in an airport, you're Russian for a flight, 596 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:53,719 Speaker 2: that was your excuse. 597 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 3: Sure. Now they don't even have fast food in airports anymore. 598 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,640 Speaker 3: It's all this it's all the fancy rush, fancy. Yeah. 599 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:00,719 Speaker 3: So I know they took that away for me. All right, 600 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 3: what else? 601 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:02,879 Speaker 6: Well, if you're feeling hungry, okay, So how about this, 602 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,639 Speaker 6: a hungry group of ten people on Thanksgiving? You can 603 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 6: feed them for one hundred dollars. Yes, this at Sam's Club. 604 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,640 Speaker 6: You've gotta go to Sam's Club. It's their member's mark brand. 605 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 6: So for a hundred bucks, you can get a whole 606 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 6: turkey dinner, rolls, mac and cheese, mashed potatoes, sweet potato mash, 607 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 6: Brussels sprout salad, and pumpkin pie. So they're saying it 608 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 6: can be delivered to your house under two hours. It's 609 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 6: pre cooked. All you gotta do is heat it up, 610 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,359 Speaker 6: maybe in the oven. Everything is set to go. They 611 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 6: want to just make sure everyone has, you know, access 612 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:36,960 Speaker 6: to good food. That's the reason why they're doing it. 613 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 6: But a lot of companies have been doing this, this 614 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 6: whole promotion, like Thanksgiving cheap meals because budget? 615 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 3: What do you doing thanks saving? Are you trying to families? 616 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 6: No, I go I go to family to bring the wine. 617 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 6: That's it. 618 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 2: I'll bring in the wine. That's a good strategy. All right, 619 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 2: how about you, David, what do you guys do? 620 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 5: I will be here in New York do some cooking. 621 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 5: But it's kind of it's farmed out among all of us, 622 00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 5: so I won't take care of the turkey, but. 623 00:28:59,080 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 7: We'll do some sides. 624 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 3: Day after Thanksgiving, I'm working anybody else not me? 625 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 5: I should check my calendar. 626 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, you like, mis. 627 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 2: Called that ter So when I asked for all the 628 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 2: fridays off in the summer, I always tell the powers that, hey, 629 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 2: who's working a day? 630 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 3: Different things? Christmas? Yes, yeah, that's how it works. Ok 631 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 3: So that's how you play it there. So but Thanksgiving 632 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 3: dinner front one hundred bucks? Not bad? 633 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, not bad for ten people. 634 00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 7: There you go. 635 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 6: Okay, we've been talking about the World Series right fevers 636 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 6: in the air, but this is actually in the Wall 637 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,959 Speaker 6: Street Journal. It's how ballpark condos are a big hit 638 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 6: with homeowners. So they don't want the ocean view, they 639 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 6: want the view of the ballpark. So that's becoming a 640 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 6: big thing. Unfortunately not in New York or Los Angeles 641 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 6: they don't have those. But in San Diego, for example, 642 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,959 Speaker 6: they have these residences where you can just sit out 643 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 6: on your balcony and watch the game. 644 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 3: It's right, I can beat that. Okay. 645 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 2: How nineteen ninety five we did the IPO for Inner 646 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 2: Speedway Motor Sports. They on the Charlotte Motor Speedway, the 647 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 2: Lando Motor Speed Speedway. U SID proceeds to build condos 648 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 2: at the Charlotte Motor Space Wow in turn two and 649 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 2: people to me and people, they sold them out before 650 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 2: they even built them. 651 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:12,240 Speaker 3: People wanted to have. 652 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,960 Speaker 2: They don't want traffic in front of their house, but 653 00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 2: they want They'll take the forty cars going two hundred miles. 654 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,320 Speaker 3: An hour in front of their condo. It's a Charlotte 655 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 3: Motor Speedway. 656 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 6: I wouldn't I live a train station in Marble. I 657 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 6: don't want to look next to a speedway. 658 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 3: It was great. And so they you know, for two 659 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 3: days a year when they have the two you know, used. 660 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,719 Speaker 2: To be the winter regular right yeah, yeah, and then 661 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 2: they would and people paid like that are like half 662 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 2: a million dollars in those things. 663 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:37,080 Speaker 7: You know. 664 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:38,719 Speaker 5: I was in d C before here in the kind 665 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 5: of growth that you've seen around the Nationals Ballpark in 666 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 5: Navy Yard and d C just like that, all those 667 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 5: condos around there. And then Paul and I love to 668 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 5: talk about Duram, North Carolina, but that minor league park, 669 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 5: the Durmaballs Athletic Park, has a lot of that now, 670 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 5: a lot of condos kind of around the edges of it, 671 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,560 Speaker 5: so I get it. I mean it's like, yeah, if 672 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 5: you're a fan, and we've talked about how much it 673 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 5: is to watch the world, maybe it's just like the 674 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 5: future is to do it that's way, So maybe it's. 675 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 6: Cheaper to do it that way. Yeah, but they're not 676 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 6: cheap either. I mean some guy paid a million dollars 677 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,400 Speaker 6: for him in San Diego in the San Diego and 678 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 6: that was back in two thousand and seven, so you 679 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 6: can imagine how much. 680 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 5: I walked by it downtown but never been inside. 681 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 3: Bent down San Diego system. It's a great why you 682 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 3: would live anywhere other than San Diego. Temperature just awesome, 683 00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 3: But that's a great ballpark. I think they support the team, 684 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 3: So we'll see. All right, that's our newspaper segment with 685 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 3: Lisa Gonna tell you. 686 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,640 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 687 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 688 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,080 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 689 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 690 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 691 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal