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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. So here's the latest
Speaker 2: this morning, the US and Iran trading, fresh strikes, and
Speaker 2: the Persian golf putting the fragile ceasfile very much in down.
Speaker 2: Let's extend the conversation with John Leber of your Rager
Speaker 2: group right in the following. Risk of ceasefire collapsing remains
Speaker 2: elevated as a deal is unlikely until June. Negotiations appear deadlocked,
Speaker 2: with both sides believing they hold the advantage. John joined
Speaker 2: us now for more, John, welcome to the program. Just
Speaker 2: out of interest, Why is it unlikely until.
Speaker 3: You know both sides I think aren't at their pain threshold?
Speaker 3: Yet certainly the US is starting to feel some of
Speaker 3: the economic pain from this war, but mostly it's being
Speaker 3: felt abroad. And for the Iranians, they're dug in. They're
Speaker 3: not willing yet to give the concessions that Donald Trump
Speaker 3: wants to see on the nuclear program, and they think
Speaker 3: they have the superior leverage and the deal. That's what
Speaker 3: these attacks over the last twenty four hours we're about
Speaker 3: reasserting Iranian dominance over the strait. So while we think
Speaker 3: there will be a deal, the deal will probably come
Speaker 3: sometime in June. It could come in May. We think
Speaker 3: it probably comes sometime in June, which means a very
Speaker 3: delayed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But for right now,
Speaker 3: both sides are kind of still circling around each other.
Speaker 3: They're having these preliminary talks that aren't really going anywhere,
Speaker 3: and until they unlock this nuclear issue, I don't think
Speaker 3: there's space yet for a deal to come together until
Speaker 3: the pain is higher.
Speaker 1: John.
Speaker 4: For anyone watching the events play out yesterday, it was
Speaker 4: clear violation of the ceasefire. Is this administration prepared to
Speaker 4: say that no.
Speaker 3: Because they don't want the cease fired end, So structurally
Speaker 3: I think we think both sides really don't want to
Speaker 3: go back to fighting. The US doesn't have the domestic
Speaker 3: political space to do so, and the Iranians just want
Speaker 3: to stop being bombed. So I don't think either side
Speaker 3: wants to see the seasfire breakdown. And I think that's
Speaker 3: what yes yesterday demonstrated. The Iranians were able to send
Speaker 3: a message, we still control the straight United States. You
Speaker 3: cannot escort ships out of here easily without US retaliating.
Speaker 3: And the US had the opportunity to declare the ceasefire
Speaker 3: over and strike back, and they didn't. And I think
Speaker 3: that really shows kind of the structural incentive set that
Speaker 3: both sides here have to keep the peace.
Speaker 4: Clearly, the blockade is hitting the Iranian economy, though at
Speaker 4: what point will the pain be enough on this regime
Speaker 4: though to bring them to their table or does that
Speaker 4: point not even exist when you're dealing with regime like this.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you look at the blockade and Iran's now
Speaker 3: shipping about thirty percent of its pre war oil out
Speaker 3: of Iran, but prices are much higher, so the hit
Speaker 3: to their budget is only about thirty to forty percent
Speaker 3: of their pre war pre war or budget. It's not
Speaker 3: great for them, and they've got a lot of reconstruction
Speaker 3: to pay for now, but they can keep going and
Speaker 3: the regime is solid in that scenario, so they again,
Speaker 3: they don't want to keep this fighting up. I don't
Speaker 3: think the economic pain is necessarily the thing that's going
Speaker 3: to drive them to the negotiating table. But at some point,
Speaker 3: you know, they're now putting out plans to open the
Speaker 3: strait with a phase discussion about the nuclear targets, and
Speaker 3: the US is saying, no, we have to do the
Speaker 3: nuclear first. You can kind of see the contours of
Speaker 3: a deal, and I don't think the Iranians would be
Speaker 3: engaging in these talks and putting out these proposals if
Speaker 3: they didn't want to get there.
Speaker 5: John, A lot of people thought that the deadline was
Speaker 5: May fourteenth, when President Trump and Jijinpang of China were
Speaker 5: supposedly going to meet. President Trump says that meeting is
Speaker 5: still on. Do you think that it's feasible that it
Speaker 5: could take place without some sort of better agreement in
Speaker 5: place between Iran and the United States.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 6: Absolutely.
Speaker 3: I don't think the Chinese need to see a deal
Speaker 3: come together, and they're not really that involved. They might
Speaker 3: end up being involved in some aspects of how the
Speaker 3: piece deal comes together, but right now they're not important
Speaker 3: interlockers in this debate. And Trump himself is basically domestically
Speaker 3: resilient to the fight so far. You had a clip
Speaker 3: on him earlier talking about how much worse he thought
Speaker 3: this was going to be. So I don't think that
Speaker 3: the Iran conflict is in any way an impediment to
Speaker 3: what both sides in the US China deal a relationship want,
Speaker 3: which is just calm right now. They don't want anything
Speaker 3: to disrupt their critical mineral supplies in the case of
Speaker 3: the US, and China's access to global markets in the
Speaker 3: case of China. So I think that that is going
Speaker 3: to be the overall state of play for US China
Speaker 3: for the near term, and Iran is not going to
Speaker 3: disrupt that.
Speaker 5: Are there any checks then on exactly how long this
Speaker 5: goes for? Some people used to think that it was
Speaker 5: oil prices. Oil price is now well above one hundred
Speaker 5: dollars a barrel, and when you take a look at
Speaker 5: Brent in December were over ninety dollars a barrow.
Speaker 1: Some people were saying.
Speaker 5: This meeting with jimping that doesn't seem to be an issue.
Speaker 5: Other people were saying popularity, that doesn't seem to be
Speaker 5: an issue based on the p that are currently coming out.
Speaker 5: So what are the checks on how long this could
Speaker 5: go on?
Speaker 6: Yeah, great question.
Speaker 3: I mean I think that this has been gone longer
Speaker 3: than we anticipated, for sure. But if you look at
Speaker 3: this accumulating economic damage, I mean, it's hard to see
Speaker 3: oil staying contained where it is right now. If this
Speaker 3: conflict does go on another several weeks, you also have
Speaker 3: the enormous pain that's being felt globally from shortages of helium,
Speaker 3: from shortages of fertilizer, from shortages of aluminum, and all
Speaker 3: these disruptive effects across global supply chains are going to
Speaker 3: start to have an impact on the US economy in particular.
Speaker 3: And I think that that mounting pressure. I would be
Speaker 3: very surprised if you don't see oil going up from
Speaker 3: where it is today. And I think that mounting pressure
Speaker 3: is ultimately what makes the US say, okay, fine, we'll
Speaker 3: do a deal here, but we don't expect that for
Speaker 3: another several weeks, which is a pretty bad economic story.
Speaker 2: That's not a good one, that's for sure. John, Thank you.
Speaker 2: Sir John Labade, if you I shouldgree with his own
Speaker 2: predictions on why this is going stay with us. Multilinpag
Speaker 2: Savanas coming up after this, the New York Fed President
Speaker 2: John Williams staying positive on text a labor market impact
Speaker 2: Torson Slock of Apollo writing AI will drive productivity gains
Speaker 2: and create opportunities that will more than replace jobs lost.
Speaker 2: Today Torston joins us now for more Torston.
Speaker 6: Good morning, Monday morning.
Speaker 2: So the headline we got from coinbase earlier on was
Speaker 2: job cuts and job cuts attributed to becoming more of
Speaker 2: a startup like culture AI all those things. Can we
Speaker 2: start with call centers in the Philippines and tell everyone
Speaker 2: where they're wrong about all of this?
Speaker 7: Well, what's so interesting about this is that running a
Speaker 7: call center has become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper, and
Speaker 7: in particular cheaper when you have of course voice recognition,
Speaker 7: when you have AI helping you. So that's why employment
Speaker 7: in call centers in the Philippines for the last ten
Speaker 7: years has.
Speaker 6: Actually been going up.
Speaker 7: Telling you that running a call center is cheaper, that
Speaker 7: means more companies are using call centers and they're expanding
Speaker 7: because it's becoming cheaper to produce the service of being
Speaker 7: a call center.
Speaker 2: Now, is that just co centers or do you see
Speaker 2: this applying to a bigger proportion of the labor market.
Speaker 7: It is exactly something you can apply to the whole economy,
Speaker 7: because the issue is essentially that inputs are becoming cheaper,
Speaker 7: and when inputs become cheaper, maybe there's more demand for
Speaker 7: those inputs. So think of this for radiologists. Radiologists readers
Speaker 7: scan and the scan of course can be readen now
Speaker 7: by AI. But as that has become cheaper and cheaper,
Speaker 7: the salary for radiologists at the moment around five hundred
Speaker 7: thousand has continued to go up, and employment for radiologists
Speaker 7: has also continued to go up, and across the board,
Speaker 7: across industries, inputs of production have basically gone down, very
Speaker 7: similar to what we saw during the China Shock, when
Speaker 7: China ended WGO and goods coming from China became cheaper,
Speaker 7: the unemployer rate.
Speaker 6: Didn't go up.
Speaker 7: It was the case that cheaper goods from China made
Speaker 7: it cheaper to produce things in the US, and as
Speaker 7: a result of that you saw therefore higher economic activities.
Speaker 7: So broadly speaking, if you take your economic textbook out
Speaker 7: and you ask the question what happens when it becomes
Speaker 7: cheaper to produce something, the answer is there's much more
Speaker 7: demand for that thing.
Speaker 5: The answer will be different if you go to the
Speaker 5: Ross Belt. The answer will be different if you go
Speaker 5: to centers of production in the United States that experienced
Speaker 5: complete washouts during the globalization. How do you ensure that
Speaker 5: the Jevins paradox of AI doesn't leave a lot of
Speaker 5: people unmoored, without work and not feeling the benefit of
Speaker 5: all of these advances.
Speaker 7: And that is absolutely correct that the China shog are
Speaker 7: the entering of China into the trading system. It did
Speaker 7: create some very regional specific shocks in the manufacturing sectors
Speaker 7: in the US. They certainly could not compete with US
Speaker 7: and with Chinese production and US production at the same time.
Speaker 7: So instead we're now also seeing similarly that those job
Speaker 7: categories that are most impacted, they may see some negative impact,
Speaker 7: in particular, of course, in programming and some parts of software,
Speaker 7: or more broadly speaking, this is input to the bigger
Speaker 7: part of the US business universe, and that means that
Speaker 7: when that input becomes cheaper, we should of course see
Speaker 7: growth in employment. The best example is look at the
Speaker 7: weekly data for how many businesses are created in the US.
Speaker 7: It is literally at the highest level in US history.
Speaker 7: We've never seen so many businesses created in the US.
Speaker 7: So some of these businesses, of course, will also result
Speaker 7: in more employment. So in the last few years, the
Speaker 7: very significant infection point of seeing more business creation is
Speaker 7: indeed also going to result in more employment and at
Speaker 7: the same time also more productivity.
Speaker 5: This is what a lot of people are saying, which
Speaker 5: is the reason why you have even Kevin Moosh saying
Speaker 5: they could end up with stronger growth and even a
Speaker 5: disinflationary force because of all this productivity that's being introduced
Speaker 5: to the system. The transition period though, is faster than
Speaker 5: anything we've ever seen before.
Speaker 1: This isn't like globalization.
Speaker 5: This is even a faster transmission and a lot of
Speaker 5: people are being rendered, even me and my own home
Speaker 5: useless by Claude. So at what point does it become
Speaker 5: a problem by virtue of its speed and how quickly
Speaker 5: it is displacing people.
Speaker 7: And what's really interesting about that because that connects with
Speaker 7: the discussion we have zdain markets about inflation is going
Speaker 7: up because of all prices. Inflation is going up because
Speaker 7: of terrors, Inflation is going up because of restrictions of immigration.
Speaker 7: So so far inflation is not being negatively impacted mean
Speaker 7: disinflationary because of AI. So it's that transition period that
Speaker 7: becomes so important. But even though we all agree that
Speaker 7: we will get activity gains and therefore downward pressure on inflation,
Speaker 7: clearly markets are not looking at it that way. The
Speaker 7: next expectation is, of course, as we know that the
Speaker 7: FED will be cutting only December twenty twenty seven, and
Speaker 7: that's now a higher problem is that they will be
Speaker 7: hiking in the beginning of next year. So in that sense, yes,
Speaker 7: that transition is critical. But if this is going to
Speaker 7: take several years, which it likely will, then we still
Speaker 7: need to talk about, well, maybe there's a risk of
Speaker 7: razors stay higher for longer before we get that this inflationary.
Speaker 2: Asat is she tossed, And how much of a sequencing
Speaker 2: problem is there.
Speaker 7: Well, there is also an identification problem, because maybe the
Speaker 7: risk is that this is just going to take a
Speaker 7: lot longer than what people expect. At the macro level,
Speaker 7: it's very clear we're seeing it. At the micro level,
Speaker 7: there's a lot of corporate finance examples of where this
Speaker 7: is coming very very quickly. But at the macro level
Speaker 7: that's much much more slower moving animal. Because at the
Speaker 7: macro level, before we begin to see inflation come down,
Speaker 7: before we begin to see this have impacts on the
Speaker 7: broader economy, it can take several years, and it may
Speaker 7: even take longer than several years, up to five years.
Speaker 7: And if that's the case, then the FED will not
Speaker 7: have the luxury of saying, oh ai, is this inflationary,
Speaker 7: because the FED is that has to look at inflation
Speaker 7: that's going up because of the conflict in the middle.
Speaker 2: This massive capex in certain places driving up prices too.
Speaker 2: This is part of the problem.
Speaker 1: This has been a huge issue so far.
Speaker 5: Capex has been incredibly, incredibly inflationary. At what point does
Speaker 5: that alone end up leading the FED to have to
Speaker 5: hike rates given the fact that the sequencing is so off,
Speaker 5: do you think that we're underpricing that risk yees.
Speaker 7: So that's exactly why the big, big capecks we're seeing
Speaker 7: is inflationary. Of course by semi conductor prices very clearly,
Speaker 7: it's also very inflationary for wages for those who construct
Speaker 7: data centers, it's also inflationary, of course for the price
Speaker 7: of energy, not only because of the Middle East, because
Speaker 7: of what's required to build the energy build out. All
Speaker 7: that combined is exactly saying that the sequence is which
Speaker 7: should be expecting inflation to go up initially as a
Speaker 7: result of the data center build out, and then once
Speaker 7: we begin to see the gains and the question is
Speaker 7: maybe a few years away, we should expect to see.
Speaker 6: Inflation begin to come down.
Speaker 7: And that's particularly challenging for the FED when we, at
Speaker 7: the same time have energy prices continuously going up at
Speaker 7: the moment.
Speaker 2: Tolstan Stock cu Apollo Telston appreciate it. Loves to think
Speaker 2: about in the labor market right now. Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this, and let's turn
Speaker 2: to private credit and private equity KKR reporting first quarter
Speaker 2: earnings that beat Wall Street estimates. The KKR CFO Robert
Speaker 2: Lewin joins us now for more. Rob welcome to the program.
Speaker 2: I want to start with the stock price and then
Speaker 2: talk about the underlying business. The stock into today down
Speaker 2: nineteen percent so far this year. Then I look at
Speaker 2: the underlying business and it just feels like there's a
Speaker 2: massive disconnect right now, Rob, what explains it?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 8: First, thank you so much for having me on this morning.
Speaker 8: I really appreciate it. You know, Q one was a
Speaker 8: really great quarter for us and a lot of respects,
Speaker 8: a lot of momentum across our different business lines geographies.
Speaker 8: You know, I spend a lot of time here talking
Speaker 8: about the health of our business, and I tell people
Speaker 8: that the number one metric to look at is management fees,
Speaker 8: and our management fees in the.
Speaker 6: Quarter we're up thirty percent year on year.
Speaker 8: That translated to do our second highest fee related earnings
Speaker 8: quarter in our history, our third largest adjusted at income
Speaker 8: quarter that the firm has ever have.
Speaker 6: And so when I take.
Speaker 8: A step back, there's definitely a lot of market noise.
Speaker 8: We can't control our near term share price, but what
Speaker 8: we can do is we can lean into share buybacks,
Speaker 8: which you saw us do in Q one. You also
Speaker 8: saw our co CEOs and several of our directors by stock.
Speaker 6: Personally in the quarter.
Speaker 8: You know, all we can do here is control how
Speaker 8: we're performing and operating, and if we do that over
Speaker 8: a long period of time, we feel really confident that
Speaker 8: our share price will follow.
Speaker 5: How would you describe the macro backdrop underpinning some of
Speaker 5: the noise, as you call it, or some of the fears, particularly.
Speaker 1: Around private credit.
Speaker 5: We did see negative returns for the first time in.
Speaker 1: A while in that asset class.
Speaker 5: How do you view things as changing in terms of
Speaker 5: investor appetite around this area.
Speaker 6: Yeah, thanks for question, Lisa.
Speaker 8: You know, it's interesting if you look in Q one
Speaker 8: of this year, this was one of our best credit
Speaker 8: fundraising quarters in our history, and a lot of that
Speaker 8: is because we're in the very earliest of innings of
Speaker 8: investors allocating more to asset based finance. And while there's
Speaker 8: a lot of noise around the direct lending space, which
Speaker 8: for us is around a forty billion dollar business today
Speaker 8: relative to our close to seven hundred and sixty billion
Speaker 8: of AUM, so about five percent of our business, we
Speaker 8: have a number of institutional investors calling us up right
Speaker 8: now wandering because of the pullback we're seeing across the
Speaker 8: private wall space for private credit, for direct lending, is
Speaker 8: now a good time to be entering as an entry
Speaker 8: point into direct lending, and we think it is.
Speaker 6: What you've seen is.
Speaker 8: Because capitals come out of the direct lending space, spreads
Speaker 8: have gone out a little bit, and I think that
Speaker 8: is positioning some institutional investors for an interesting compelling point
Speaker 8: to enter, and that's in part why you've seen such
Speaker 8: strong fundraising numbers and credit for KKR this quarter.
Speaker 5: Do you think the pain is behind us then some
Speaker 5: of the shakeout tied to software, tied to some of
Speaker 5: the lending standards that have gotten loosened up. Yeah.
Speaker 8: No, Listen, I think you had a lot of capital
Speaker 8: come in too the private credit space very quickly. You
Speaker 8: were also through a period of time time where the
Speaker 8: markets were really benign and default rates were really low.
Speaker 8: So we could see a scenario here as things play
Speaker 8: out where some of that capital that came in very
Speaker 8: quickly continues to come out in redemption levels and private
Speaker 8: wealth around the private credit space remain a little bit elevated.
Speaker 6: I think that would be our base case.
Speaker 8: You could definitely see defaults increasing a little bit. You know,
Speaker 8: we've talked about that often. We were in a period
Speaker 8: of time that has been unusual the last few years,
Speaker 8: and so both things we think could be true.
Speaker 6: At the same time, we still view this.
Speaker 8: As a compelling asset class to deploy capital against, and
Speaker 8: I think our investors agree.
Speaker 2: Roll. Could you tell us a little bit more about
Speaker 2: that the money coming in very quickly. Is that another
Speaker 2: way of saying we sold to retail too much? And
Speaker 2: not just you, I'm talking about as an industry at wide.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 8: I think what you saw is for a period of time,
Speaker 8: the individual investor allocating very quickly to the private credit
Speaker 8: space and some of the other asset is like private
Speaker 8: equity and infrastructure. We're more measured in terms of how
Speaker 8: investors is allocated income. That might be while you're seeing
Speaker 8: a little bit more strength in those asset classes with
Speaker 8: the individual investor, you take a big step back. You know,
Speaker 8: we see the individual investor today one to two percent
Speaker 8: allocated to alternatives. The most sophisticated institutional investors in the
Speaker 8: world can have thirty to fifty percent allocated to alternatives. Now,
Speaker 8: we obviously don't see the individual investor getting to that level.
Speaker 8: But what we do see is the individual investor over
Speaker 8: time going to four to five percent plus allocated to alternatives,
Speaker 8: really as a means to saving against their retirement.
Speaker 2: Well, what do you think the lessons will be with
Speaker 2: regards to marketing through retail channels? What are the lessons
Speaker 2: from the last year or so?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 8: So, Well, listen, I could speak for what's happened at
Speaker 8: KKR and the private well side, and if you look
Speaker 8: at our business in Q one, we have seven scaled products.
Speaker 8: All seven of them had net inflows.
Speaker 6: In the quarter. We raise roughly four billion dollars.
Speaker 8: Of capital and we had two hundred and fifty million
Speaker 8: of redemption. We feel like we're pacing it pretty well,
Speaker 8: and we're focused on the long term and how we
Speaker 8: build products and vehicles that can really scale over time,
Speaker 8: and that we're really proud of the performance that we're
Speaker 8: delivering to clients, and we're really proud of the experience
Speaker 8: that they're having in one of our KKUR private wealth products.
Speaker 6: It's a long term focus.
Speaker 8: We really aren't focused on the quarter to quarter capital raising.
Speaker 6: As much as I think the market is.
Speaker 5: On a broader level, there's a question about all of
Speaker 5: the money that's been going into private credit and private
Speaker 5: asset management just in general, that's been going toward financing
Speaker 5: this push out for hyperscalers. Given the needs to build
Speaker 5: out data centers and other infrastructure.
Speaker 1: How do you both participate.
Speaker 5: In an industry that is going through an absolute revolution
Speaker 5: while not having over concentration In particular areas.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's a really good question, and we spend a
Speaker 8: lot of time talking about that. Anytime you see a
Speaker 8: lot of capital going into a space very quickly, we
Speaker 8: think there's going to be some winners. There was going
Speaker 8: to be some losers coming out of that. And so
Speaker 8: as we think about, you know where we've got capabilities
Speaker 8: inside of KKR where we've got deep industry expertise, we've
Speaker 8: got geographic breadth across the firm that can help us,
Speaker 8: We've got outside capabilities that we're bringing to Bayar. You
Speaker 8: take that together with our really industry leading infrastructure platform
Speaker 8: that's leading the charge across all things digital infrastructure, and
Speaker 8: we feel really good that we're going to emerge from
Speaker 8: this as a winner. Now you mentioned concentration, it's a
Speaker 8: huge point. You know, we feel very strongly that as
Speaker 8: you look at our fund platforms, we need to be
Speaker 8: linear deploying over a long.
Speaker 6: Period of time.
Speaker 8: So I think that both negate some asset level concentration,
Speaker 8: but more importantly, you know that fights against vintage concentration,
Speaker 8: which is I think the number one thing that has
Speaker 8: driven poor performance if you look back in history in
Speaker 8: certain fund complexes, getting too concentrated in anyone vintage. You know,
Speaker 8: if you look at the private equity space, you know,
Speaker 8: a lot of the underperformance over the last few years
Speaker 8: I think is rooted in some of our industry over
Speaker 8: deploying in twenty twenty one in early twenty twenty two.
Speaker 5: I'd love to just finish up with the idea that
Speaker 5: you've had incredible fundraising success in the first quarter. How
Speaker 5: much do you expect that to be pressured going forward
Speaker 5: because of Middle East investors that are pulling back as
Speaker 5: a result of needs at home that they need to
Speaker 5: deploy cash to.
Speaker 8: Yeah, Lisa, we really haven't seen that to date, and
Speaker 8: so it's been very much business as usual. In Middle
Speaker 8: East investors represent roughly six percent of our limited partners globally,
Speaker 8: and we continue to do business with them today like
Speaker 8: we did at the end of twenty twenty five before
Speaker 8: the war broke out.
Speaker 2: Rob appreciate your time this morning, Thanks for joining the program.
Speaker 2: Thank you, sir. The KKRCFO Robert Lewin. This is the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Sevendments podcast, bringing you the best in market economics angiopolitics.
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