Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea. We'll be quick today. The entire team
Speaker 2: has to take a nap after the sleepless day after
Speaker 2: day that we're facing, and we hear from you that
Speaker 2: you're facing as well. Let's get right to it. Urian
Speaker 2: Timor is outstanding of fidelity. I can't say enough about
Speaker 2: his technical analysis. He's very generous with it. Go to
Speaker 2: LinkedIn and look for Urian tim Or t I mme
Speaker 2: R and it is absolutely spectacular pro analysis of trend.
Speaker 2: Here is Urian Timmer a fidelity counting sheep?
Speaker 3: Yeah, how you count sheep when you try to fall asleep?
Speaker 3: I was counting the number of bear markets I've lived
Speaker 3: through forty years on Wall Street, and so I'm at
Speaker 3: number twelve now, so I've gone through twelve bear markets
Speaker 3: and they're all equally indifferently scary, but they all have
Speaker 3: things in common. And this is why we look at charts,
Speaker 3: of course, And ironically, you know the LTCM nineteen ninety
Speaker 3: eight cycle, which of course there's no resemblance to today in
Speaker 3: so many ways other than it was an unwinding of crowded,
Speaker 3: levered trades. And of course we have some of that
Speaker 3: this time around. But you know, a textbook technical pattern
Speaker 3: is you fall ten percent because you know something is
Speaker 3: not right, and then if it ends up being okay,
Speaker 3: then you rally and everyone forgets about it. You know,
Speaker 3: last summer that little growth scare with the Enkerry trade
Speaker 3: was an example of that. Nobody remembers that, but it
Speaker 3: was down ten percent, and then if something does end
Speaker 3: up getting worse, it falls to twenty percent, and at
Speaker 3: that point it's discounted a fair amount of bad news,
Speaker 3: and then you get the inevitable rally like we saw
Speaker 3: last week when the terrifts were delayed for ninety days,
Speaker 3: and you bound up to that scene of the crime
Speaker 3: where the market broke down the first time. So that's
Speaker 3: fifty five hundred on the S and P, and that's
Speaker 3: where the seller's come out and lo and behold, this
Speaker 3: is exactly where this rally has stopped.
Speaker 2: You're in timor just brilliant there on the technical trends
Speaker 2: of the market, of course, now hanging on every headline.
Speaker 2: I'm very very hesitant to say technical analysis really is
Speaker 2: part of the discussion. We certainly have not seen going
Speaker 2: down the typical chapter in a technical analyst textbook which
Speaker 2: says you need Catharsis to find about him. I don't
Speaker 2: think anyone in the game is saying that we've seen
Speaker 2: a cathartic event. Constance Hunter is with EIU and also
Speaker 2: macro policy perspectives, and she was just brilliant today. The
Speaker 2: thing we talked about not here but before was animatics
Speaker 2: and pharmaceuticals. She's really emphasizing the White House analysis of
Speaker 2: pharmaceuticals within tariffs, and I picked up on what does
Speaker 2: that mean for China is a export some of the
Speaker 2: chemicals and those needed drugs that our families use each
Speaker 2: and every day. From EIU, here's Constance Hunter on the moment.
Speaker 1: So we're looking at all the intermediate goods, right. So
Speaker 1: if you think about even manufacturing in the US, even
Speaker 1: the manufacturing we do here, take important parts and put
Speaker 1: that into the final goods.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 1: So this is like the policies of Juan Peron in
Speaker 1: Argentina in nineteen forty five when he said, well, we're
Speaker 1: just going to make everything here in Argentina. Like, if
Speaker 1: we keep going down this road, it does not end well.
Speaker 2: So an I allusion to Argentina. Thank you, Anne Marie
Speaker 2: Horden for her travel to Benessaris to speak of the
Speaker 2: Secretary Treasury and needed conversation. Given the crisis. We are
Speaker 2: going to continue with our conversations and discussions on tariffs
Speaker 2: and on what clearly is a trade war. Particularly thank
Speaker 2: you to our Hong Kong News bureau that's been sleepless
Speaker 2: in the Chinese morning about seven pm Eastern time, That's
Speaker 2: when I really start looking at the next day, because
Speaker 2: that is the next day in Asia on the Pacific Rim,
Speaker 2: we are on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. In the
Speaker 2: Pacific Rim evening you can hear us there and see
Speaker 2: us there and on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea.