Speaker 1: Hey, welcome back to another episode of The Mark Mo
Speaker 1: Show where we are talking about bitcoin. We're talking about
Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies and really this decentralized revolution that's happening each and
Speaker 1: every week, bringing you the most up to date news,
Speaker 1: the education so you understand what's going on, and some
Speaker 1: of the best, some of the brightest people in the
Speaker 1: space to give you that perspective and a little bit
Speaker 1: of a nuance and hopefully some entertainment along with all that.
Speaker 1: So I, as I say, each and every week, this
Speaker 1: is the biggest opportunity you will ever have in your lifetime.
Speaker 1: You don't want to miss it. The problem is is
Speaker 1: that where are you getting your information. Wherever you're getting
Speaker 1: it from, it's most likely wrong and that is going
Speaker 1: to cause you to have problems. So pull out your
Speaker 1: phone if you're not driving, put a calendar reminder on
Speaker 1: right now, and join me each and every week on
Speaker 1: this channel at this time where I'll make it the
Speaker 1: most profitable part of each and every week. Now jumping
Speaker 1: into bitcoin, um, there's so many angles. As I talked
Speaker 1: about each in every week, there's so many angles to
Speaker 1: come out it from. But what is so it's very
Speaker 1: difficult to understand um, you have to understand philosophy and
Speaker 1: game theory and technology and monetary systems, and on and
Speaker 1: on and on and on and on. One of the
Speaker 1: big things about bitcoin, though, that I like to focus
Speaker 1: on is why why do we even need bitcoin? That's
Speaker 1: a big piece of it. Um. Of course we come
Speaker 1: with that from different angles all the time. And then
Speaker 1: why does bitcoin move up and down? And why is
Speaker 1: it needed? Right? So, I know that to most people
Speaker 1: are focusing on the price, and of course right now
Speaker 1: the price the US dollar value of bitcoin is down,
Speaker 1: so we're down off of our all time highs November one,
Speaker 1: we had a high about sixty nine dollars and now
Speaker 1: at the time of this we're somewhere in the high
Speaker 1: thirties I don't know, thirty eight ish range, something like that.
Speaker 1: And I know a lot of people are wishing that
Speaker 1: I would tell you is now the best time to
Speaker 1: buy or is now the time to sell? But I'm
Speaker 1: gonna come out from a different angle, and really we're
Speaker 1: gonna look at it from what are the factors that
Speaker 1: drive it? So, for example, you may have decided that
Speaker 1: to buy bitcoinner people have told you to buy bitcoin,
Speaker 1: you're thinking about buying bitcoin because you think it will
Speaker 1: be worth more in the future, But why why would
Speaker 1: it be more worth more in the future, and more importantly,
Speaker 1: how much could it be worth in the future. Do
Speaker 1: you want to look at those types of things now?
Speaker 1: One of the reasons why is that? Uh? And why
Speaker 1: is it down? Why is the price down? And why
Speaker 1: would it be worth more in the future. And one
Speaker 1: of the things that we have to look at is
Speaker 1: what in the world is going on right now in
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve of the United States, the Central Bank
Speaker 1: of the United States. If you're not, if you haven't
Speaker 1: been even paying attention to what's going on, then good
Speaker 1: luck trying to understand bitcoin. I know a lot of
Speaker 1: people sometimes say, Mark, Mark, stay in your lane, don't
Speaker 1: don't talk about politics, or don't talk about you know, finance,
Speaker 1: and don't talk about the FED. And it's like, you
Speaker 1: can't understand these things unless you dig into that. And
Speaker 1: so all eyes have been on Jerome Powell is the
Speaker 1: head of the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the
Speaker 1: United States, and they had a meeting, They had a
Speaker 1: meeting the f m o C, and they decided to
Speaker 1: get together and decide what comes next, What is the
Speaker 1: fate of the world hanging in the balance based off
Speaker 1: of what they decide, what's in their head. I I
Speaker 1: posted this on Twitter. By the way, if you're not
Speaker 1: following me on Twitter, then you should. It's the number
Speaker 1: one mark boss. I'm pretty active on there, and probably
Speaker 1: more active than I should be. I'd love to hear
Speaker 1: from you, so reach out and say you heard me
Speaker 1: on the radio. Um. But I posted something on on
Speaker 1: on Twitter saying that you know how strange it is
Speaker 1: that the whole world is waiting to see what they say.
Speaker 1: Because what happens with the financial markets, what happens with
Speaker 1: or stock accounts, what happens with the price of your home,
Speaker 1: what happens with maybe the price of your food and
Speaker 1: your gasoline, what happens with the price of bitcoin, all
Speaker 1: boils down to what they do, what they decide. Um.
Speaker 1: So they met all day on Thursday, and then on
Speaker 1: Thursday night there was a Twitter spaces that I jumped
Speaker 1: into with some very very smart people. We had Preston
Speaker 1: Pitch was kind of leading it and talking about the
Speaker 1: FED meeting all day and UH, for like two hours
Speaker 1: we discussed, um, will they raise rates, will they not
Speaker 1: raise rates, will they continue to do stimulus, will they
Speaker 1: really taper? Will they cut back quee um? And and
Speaker 1: if they did any of these things or combinations of them,
Speaker 1: hundreds of combinations of these things, then what would happen?
Speaker 1: And so we're all on there speculating. But really what
Speaker 1: we're doing is we're trying to read a mind. And uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but I'm not very good
Speaker 1: at reading minds. I don't know if you've ever tried it,
Speaker 1: but it's not very easy. So we're all there trying
Speaker 1: to read what's in the mind. Will they do this,
Speaker 1: or will they do that? Or how long till they
Speaker 1: reverse course? And on and on and on. Right, one, Uh,
Speaker 1: that's a fool's errand right, you can't be guessing with
Speaker 1: your financial future. You can't just be guessing about that.
Speaker 1: You can't be leaving it up to reading minds. And
Speaker 1: and I bring that up to highlight the insanity that
Speaker 1: our entire world is hanging in the balance of what
Speaker 1: they do. And the whole point here is that nobody,
Speaker 1: not no one person, nor one group should ever have
Speaker 1: that power. That's the insanity. We're We're going to dig
Speaker 1: into more about what they're doing and what that ultimately
Speaker 1: is going to do to the best of the the markets
Speaker 1: and of course bitcoin. By the way, if you're just
Speaker 1: tuning and you're listening to the Markmas Show where we're
Speaker 1: talking about bitcoin, we're talking about this decentralized revolution, and
Speaker 1: right now we're talking about what the Federal Reserve is doing,
Speaker 1: so you can have a better understanding of all this.
Speaker 1: But so, how insane is it that one person or
Speaker 1: one group of people can literally have that power over
Speaker 1: everything to change the price. So I I tweeted that
Speaker 1: out and I said, but you know, bitcoin fixes this,
Speaker 1: and I got it. It was It went pretty viral.
Speaker 1: I mean, a lot of people liked it, a lot
Speaker 1: of people commented, hundreds of people commented on that, and
Speaker 1: a lot of the comments were saying, yeah, but how
Speaker 1: does bitcoin fix that? Because when the Fed makes their decision,
Speaker 1: the price the bitcoin goes up and down too. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but that's not the point. That's not the point that
Speaker 1: I'm trying to make here. Yes, the price of bitcoin
Speaker 1: is subject to the whims of fellows sort of just
Speaker 1: like the price of your gasoline, just like the price
Speaker 1: of your steak, just like the value of your home
Speaker 1: and your retirement basket of stocks as well. But that's
Speaker 1: the insanity. So yes, unfortunately, the price the US dollar
Speaker 1: of bitcoin will be whipsode back and forth based off
Speaker 1: of whatever they're doing. But that's not the point I'm
Speaker 1: trying to make. The point I'm trying to make is
Speaker 1: that because no one or no one group should ever
Speaker 1: have that power, the goal is to take that power
Speaker 1: away from them, take away anyone's persons or group's ability
Speaker 1: to move the entire world's prices by creating more money
Speaker 1: and changing interest rates. So let me kind of break
Speaker 1: that down for you, all right, So um, you might
Speaker 1: hear if if if you, like I said, if you're
Speaker 1: not paying attention, then you should be because this affects everything.
Speaker 1: This affects your job, whether you might end up having
Speaker 1: a new job or having a job at all. This effects,
Speaker 1: like I said, the value of your home, or if
Speaker 1: you're going to buy a new home, how much that's
Speaker 1: gonna cost you. This affects how much is gonna cost
Speaker 1: you to commute back and forth to work. So if
Speaker 1: you think this doesn't affect you, then again you're sadly mistaken.
Speaker 1: Henry Ford said over a hundred years ago, Henry Ford,
Speaker 1: the the godfather of the automobile. He said that the
Speaker 1: if the American people knew how the banking system work,
Speaker 1: there would be a revolution before the morning. Before the morning.
Speaker 1: That means, that means that people would be so outraged
Speaker 1: that they wouldn't even wait. They would be out there
Speaker 1: storming the streets, storming the banks. That was a hundred
Speaker 1: years ago. Imagine how much worse the worst things are
Speaker 1: today a hundred years later. And of course it's uh
Speaker 1: no surprise that this is why they don't teach you
Speaker 1: any of this in school. Not only they not only
Speaker 1: teach it to you, they purposely withhold it from you.
Speaker 1: And so I get it if you're not paying attention.
Speaker 1: I get it if you don't understand how this impacts
Speaker 1: your life. But as I like to say, an ostrich
Speaker 1: can bury its head in the sand, but it won't
Speaker 1: stop it from being eaten. You can choose ignore reality,
Speaker 1: in the words of Iron Rand, you can choose the
Speaker 1: ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of reality.
Speaker 1: And so you've got to know what the heck the
Speaker 1: FED is doing. You gotta know what the heck they're doing.
Speaker 1: What they said in this meeting this week, um what
Speaker 1: their plans are doing, and more importantly, what is that
Speaker 1: going to do to your entire life and the price
Speaker 1: of bitcoin, and of course how bitcoin fixes this. So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna break that down a little bit. Um. Like
Speaker 1: I said, you should be paying attention, so do not
Speaker 1: go away. By the way, you're listening to the Mark
Speaker 1: Moa Show. Of course, we're talking about bitcoin, the decentralized
Speaker 1: revolution that's happening right now. We're talking about why why
Speaker 1: is bitcoin needed and it's being highlighted right now by
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve moving the markets in the world. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna explain that to you and show you what we
Speaker 1: should be doing about that. So don't go away. I'll
Speaker 1: be right back. Hey, welcome back. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: Mark ma Show and we're talking about bitcoin. Thanks for
Speaker 1: tuning in. We're talking about bitcoin, we're talking about cryptocurrencies,
Speaker 1: and we're talking about the decentralized revolution that's happening, and
Speaker 1: uh really we're digging into why, why does the decentralized
Speaker 1: revolution need to happen, why is it happening, and some
Speaker 1: of the things you can fix. And so we're talking
Speaker 1: about the Federal Reserve, the central banks of the Central
Speaker 1: Bank of the United States, and uh, this week they
Speaker 1: had a big meeting and everybody was waiting to hear
Speaker 1: what they said, and would they come out hawkish, meaning
Speaker 1: would they be strong against it, would they be really
Speaker 1: working hard to tamp down this inflation that we're having,
Speaker 1: or would they be devish, which would be like I,
Speaker 1: we'll just kind of let it go. They'll be weak
Speaker 1: and soft. Right, And so they had this meeting that
Speaker 1: everybody was waiting for, and they were pretty hawkish, meaning
Speaker 1: that they are pretty aggressive on what they want to do.
Speaker 1: And of course the markets have reacted. Right. We're seeing
Speaker 1: the price of all the stocks turning down, We're seeing
Speaker 1: high credit turning down. That's a really bad sign. We're
Speaker 1: seeing the breath of the market's break apart. That's really bad.
Speaker 1: And of course, as I was saying, bitcoin and all
Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies are all down as well. UM. So basically what
Speaker 1: the Fed is saying that um, they are going to
Speaker 1: end quantitative easing by March of which is about two
Speaker 1: months away. UM end it. So what is quantitative easing?
Speaker 1: So quantities and easing is basically the central banks creating
Speaker 1: money and putting them out reserves at the banks, and
Speaker 1: then when the banks get reserves, they create money into
Speaker 1: existence by generating loans. So when you go to the
Speaker 1: bank to get a loan for your house, about a car,
Speaker 1: whatever in RV, that money is created into existence. The
Speaker 1: central banks they don't create money. They put reserves onto
Speaker 1: the banks, and then the banks can create money from
Speaker 1: those reserves. And so quei is a is a roundabout
Speaker 1: way of creating money. And UM, I'm not gonna get
Speaker 1: super detailed into that. There's a little bit more, but
Speaker 1: they've been basically pumping the markets full of this liquidity
Speaker 1: since two thousand eight, since the two thousand eight financial crisis,
Speaker 1: the g f C, the Great Financial Crash, and they've
Speaker 1: never stopped since two thous eight. They said, oh, they
Speaker 1: saved the world, they save the world financial system. Well
Speaker 1: then how come they were never able to let the
Speaker 1: financial system run on its own again. So they've been
Speaker 1: pumping the markets full. Um. Now, um, some historical context
Speaker 1: I think it's important for you to understand about this
Speaker 1: is that in two thousand eighteen, just after the now
Speaker 1: current FED chair Jerome Pale, took office, he came in
Speaker 1: ready to change the world. He was gonna fix things
Speaker 1: and he said, I'm gonna taper. I'm gonna end quewie.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get the markets to stand up on their own.
Speaker 1: We're gonna stop pumping them full of money. And so
Speaker 1: he tried, and he did, and he um started tape
Speaker 1: bring and very quickly the markets crashed, very fast, draw
Speaker 1: down and stocks boom right away. And uh, he very
Speaker 1: quickly found out that you can't taper a ponzi. So
Speaker 1: um he quickly had a reverse course and they had
Speaker 1: to continue pumping the markets full of money. And we've
Speaker 1: continued on from and then you know, March came, which
Speaker 1: was the big crash in the stock market. The pandemic,
Speaker 1: you know, locked the whole country down, locked the lock
Speaker 1: everything down. The markets crashed again, and they brought even
Speaker 1: more firepower. They brought, you know, this time eight trillion
Speaker 1: dollars to pump the markets back up. And so every
Speaker 1: time they've tried, well really only one time they tried
Speaker 1: to stop pumping the markets full of money. The markets crashed.
Speaker 1: And now he's saying they're finally going to do it.
Speaker 1: They couldn't do it last time, but this time they're
Speaker 1: going to do it. Uh. Really, at a time when
Speaker 1: supply chains are breaking down at a time when lockdowns
Speaker 1: are still happening, a time when the economy is seen
Speaker 1: it was very very fragile, at a time when asset
Speaker 1: prices are sky high because of all their monetary uh stimulus,
Speaker 1: and they're gonna stop. Okay, well we can speculate on that,
Speaker 1: but he said, that's what we're gonna do on top
Speaker 1: of that, what they're gonna do, um, is they're gonna
Speaker 1: start raking up the rate, increasing the interest rates. And
Speaker 1: so that means that as interest rates go up, that
Speaker 1: means you'll be paying more for debt to take on debt,
Speaker 1: which means that a lot less people will take on debt.
Speaker 1: When a lot less people take on debt, guess what happens?
Speaker 1: Things slow down. You don't buy new cars, you don't
Speaker 1: buy new houses. Um, When you don't buy new cars,
Speaker 1: a new house is guess what happens? The price of
Speaker 1: those houses come down. When the price of your house
Speaker 1: comes down, guess what happens. You feel poor, You feel
Speaker 1: less rich. Guess what happens when you feel less rich?
Speaker 1: You buy less things. Do you see how they starts
Speaker 1: spiraling very very very very quickly, the way that the
Speaker 1: way that this leverage works is that if someone would
Speaker 1: loan me unlimited amount of money for free, I might
Speaker 1: go get a bunch of that free money, and I
Speaker 1: might go buy a bunch of houses all over the country,
Speaker 1: all over the world. It might go buy yachts and
Speaker 1: planes and and all that, and all of that free
Speaker 1: money that I was given creates all this stimulus. Right,
Speaker 1: So now people are making more houses, and people are
Speaker 1: making more planes and making more boats, and so things start.
Speaker 1: And then all those people that make the boats now
Speaker 1: they all have more money, and then they go buy
Speaker 1: more things and more equipment, and they buy bigger buildings,
Speaker 1: and then you know, on and on and on. So
Speaker 1: it levels up really fast. But it also unwinds just
Speaker 1: as fast. So if rates go up and less people
Speaker 1: buy homes, well, then there's less people in the home
Speaker 1: building niche, there's less people selling supplies for those homes,
Speaker 1: and the people that buy the that sell those supplies
Speaker 1: have less money to go buy other goods and services,
Speaker 1: and the whole thing starts to unwind very very quickly.
Speaker 1: So anyway, they're gonna stop stimulating, apparently by mar and
Speaker 1: then they're gonna start increasing interest rates rate hikes and
Speaker 1: then maybe he said, maybe they might even actually start
Speaker 1: um quantitative tightening, which means not just in the tapering um,
Speaker 1: but actually start pulling money back out. Now. Um, that's
Speaker 1: what he's saying. And the markets are not liking that,
Speaker 1: and so it is dragging the price of all assets,
Speaker 1: including your retirement portfolio down. Stocks are breaking down. What
Speaker 1: people are wondering if we're going to a bear market,
Speaker 1: and like I said, bitcoin is going down as well.
Speaker 1: But what does that mean for the future of bitcoin?
Speaker 1: As I said, bitcoin fixes this. But um, to the
Speaker 1: hundreds of comments I got on that Twitter post, Uh,
Speaker 1: it's not. Um, it's not immune. So a lot of
Speaker 1: people say, well, Mark, you know bitcoin is still correlated
Speaker 1: to the stock market. It's too correlated. I'm not interested
Speaker 1: in bitcoin because it's so correlated. And I would say
Speaker 1: every single asset is correlated right now because of the FED,
Speaker 1: because of the Federal Reserve. It shouldn't be like this,
Speaker 1: but it is because as they're pumping in trillions of
Speaker 1: dollars of liquidity, it drives everything. Warren Buffett uh famously
Speaker 1: said that a rising tide raises all boats, but when
Speaker 1: the tide goes out, you see who's swimming naked and
Speaker 1: so Um, the eight trillion dollars has lifted all the
Speaker 1: boats up at the same time. And when you pull
Speaker 1: the water out, all the boats also go down at
Speaker 1: the same time. UM. Out here in California, I had
Speaker 1: a house out in the river out in the river
Speaker 1: area of Nevada and Arizona for for shoot, almost twenty years,
Speaker 1: over a decade. And on the river it's the Colorado River.
Speaker 1: The comes from Colorado, goes through Las Vegas, Lake Mead,
Speaker 1: goes through Arizona and then eventually dips into the into
Speaker 1: the Gulf of Mexico. Our not Gulf of Mexico, the
Speaker 1: Gulf of Bajam. But on that river at night, UM,
Speaker 1: when the tide comes up, you park your boat up
Speaker 1: on the shore and you drop your anchor, and then
Speaker 1: you wake up in the morning and it's like five
Speaker 1: ft from the water because the water that they release
Speaker 1: water from the dam, and all the boats come up,
Speaker 1: and then when they shut the dam and then it
Speaker 1: all drops down. And that's kind of what the Federal
Speaker 1: Reserve does. Just like the dam releases more water in
Speaker 1: the river and then they take water out. The same
Speaker 1: thing happens with the foul reserve. They put money in
Speaker 1: and everybody feels rich, and then they pull money out
Speaker 1: and it all starts falling apart. And so bitcoin is
Speaker 1: a part of that um, just like gold, just like
Speaker 1: every other asset. But that's only one piece of the story.
Speaker 1: And if that's what you're seeing in the news headlines,
Speaker 1: you are going to be faked out of the market.
Speaker 1: So I want to tell you the real way that
Speaker 1: you need to look at this and where we are
Speaker 1: in this market cycle of cryptocurrencies. Um. Is it over
Speaker 1: or is it just about to begin. I'm gonna come
Speaker 1: back with more than that. I listen to the Mark
Speaker 1: mo Show talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Don't go away,
Speaker 1: all right, welcome back. You are listening to the Mark
Speaker 1: ma Show, and we're talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and
Speaker 1: the decentralized revolution. Each and every week, I'm here with you.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at one Mark Moss.
Speaker 1: That's just the number one. I tweet about this stuff
Speaker 1: all the time, and so uh follow me there, give
Speaker 1: me a shout out at me, hell me heard me
Speaker 1: on the radio. Ask me a question, I'll make sure
Speaker 1: to answer it for you. Now we're talking about the
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve, because all eyes are on the fellow reserves.
Speaker 1: They're driving the markets. I was using the illustration of
Speaker 1: this this place on the river where I used to go,
Speaker 1: and they had opened the dam and there'd be a
Speaker 1: lot of water and people would park their boats up
Speaker 1: and then overnight they'd let the they'd close the dam
Speaker 1: and the water would run out, and then boats beyond
Speaker 1: dry land. And that's kind of what the Federal Reserve
Speaker 1: is doing with their money. I explained to you what
Speaker 1: they said in this meeting this week of what they
Speaker 1: planned to do and what's going to happen about that.
Speaker 1: But UM, I want to tell you a couple things.
Speaker 1: So when we're gonna look at what does this really
Speaker 1: mean for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, Um, before I do that,
Speaker 1: I want to give you a little bit of historical
Speaker 1: context here. So just for a little bit of historical context,
Speaker 1: just because they're doing this doesn't necessarily mean the markets
Speaker 1: are going to crash. So for historical narrative, as I
Speaker 1: was talking about earlier, this quantitative easy and where the
Speaker 1: FED injects money into the system really kind of got
Speaker 1: started in two thousand and eight after the Great Financial Crash,
Speaker 1: and about two years after that, in two thousand, the
Speaker 1: economy was still very weak. Everybody was still very very scared,
Speaker 1: very gun shy because it's just got wiped out in
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, two years before. So two thousand,
Speaker 1: two years later, the economy's week. People are still gun shy. UM,
Speaker 1: and the FED tried to end um Q and UM.
Speaker 1: The markets crashed. Yeah, same thing. Stocks dropped, But here's
Speaker 1: the key piece. Stocks dropped a little bit, and then
Speaker 1: they just basically chopped sideways for about three months. When
Speaker 1: I say chopped side sideways, what I mean is they
Speaker 1: just went up and down, up and down, up and down,
Speaker 1: with stayed in like a very a range for about
Speaker 1: three months, and then they blasted off even higher. If
Speaker 1: I had to give UM, if I had to consult
Speaker 1: my crystal ball, if I had one, which I don't
Speaker 1: but I wish I did, it would make these things easier.
Speaker 1: But if I had to consult the crystal ball, what
Speaker 1: I would probably expect it to tell me is we
Speaker 1: might see something similar to that. So maybe the Fed
Speaker 1: signals that they're going to be hawkish. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be really strong on inflation. But then they're
Speaker 1: gonna probably walk that back. And you know, if we
Speaker 1: look at if we look at this, so they haven't
Speaker 1: even done anything yet. All they all they did is
Speaker 1: say they were going to do something, and already we
Speaker 1: have this giant sell off in the markets. Imagine if
Speaker 1: they really actually do something, what happens now? Um, the
Speaker 1: Fed feels like they have to act because we have
Speaker 1: midterms coming up and inflation is raging high, and um,
Speaker 1: everybody is upset over inflation. And if they don't do
Speaker 1: something about it, you know, the election may not do good.
Speaker 1: But what happens if everybody's stock portfolio crashes? What happens
Speaker 1: if the value of your home plunges? I think people
Speaker 1: would be pretty unhappy about that as well. And so
Speaker 1: they can't allow that to happen. They're really stuck. But um,
Speaker 1: we'll see. Like I said, I'm sitting here trying to
Speaker 1: read a crystal ball that I don't have. I'm here
Speaker 1: trying to read a mind of drone power that I
Speaker 1: can't do. And so you know, all we can do
Speaker 1: is just, uh is speculate. But what we can also
Speaker 1: do is we can protect ourselves. Um, what did I say?
Speaker 1: I can't remember what I said? Here, I said something
Speaker 1: about since we can't read minds, we just have to
Speaker 1: manage our risk. And so that's basically what we can do.
Speaker 1: Since we don't know what the future holds, I said, Uh,
Speaker 1: the key to successful investing is managing risk, not trying
Speaker 1: to be a psychic. I can't. I can't be a psychic. So, um,
Speaker 1: we have to manage the risk. So if I'm looking
Speaker 1: at the markets right now, I would say that, you know,
Speaker 1: we can potentially on the stocks, you know, maybe bounce
Speaker 1: back up about six but we have maybe another on
Speaker 1: the downside, so you want to manage that risk. But
Speaker 1: back to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. UM, I would look at
Speaker 1: bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Now, what's interesting, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: people wanted to know when the top of the of
Speaker 1: this market cycle would be, and a lot of people
Speaker 1: have speculated that. UM looking at having cycles. So if
Speaker 1: you're not familiar with that, about every four years, the
Speaker 1: amount of new bitcoin being created gets cut in half.
Speaker 1: That's called a having cycle. And so you know, like
Speaker 1: all things, that moves on supply and demand. So if
Speaker 1: you have if you have the same amount of people
Speaker 1: wanting bitcoin, the demand is the same, and then you
Speaker 1: cut the supply in half, then you would expect that
Speaker 1: the price would go up. You have the same amount
Speaker 1: of people chasing less goods and services. What happens if
Speaker 1: you get more people chasing less goods and services than
Speaker 1: the price, that moves it even more. And so every
Speaker 1: four years the amount of new bitcoin being created on
Speaker 1: a daily basis cuts in half. And so we've only
Speaker 1: had a few of these cycles, so we don't really
Speaker 1: have anything empirical. We don't have anything, you know, uh,
Speaker 1: we don't have a ton of his story call data
Speaker 1: to look at. But when we look at these past
Speaker 1: Having cycles, what we see is that about approximately eighteen
Speaker 1: months after the Having cycle is the peak. And um,
Speaker 1: the last Having cycle was May of So what's that
Speaker 1: if you if you add that up from May I
Speaker 1: was just getting out my fingers, sorry for the pause.
Speaker 1: May to May is twelve months, and from May to
Speaker 1: November six months, So six plus twelve equals eighteen Who
Speaker 1: would have thought that? Now Michael Sailor told us that
Speaker 1: all our models are destroyed. Maybe maybe not. Time will tell. Now,
Speaker 1: nobody can tell the top of a market or the
Speaker 1: bottom of the market until we're looking backwards on it. Alright,
Speaker 1: so we don't know. Um. Now bitcoin is down about
Speaker 1: forty five from its all time high, which in May
Speaker 1: of last year it was down. Soft drops aren't that
Speaker 1: uncommon as a matter of fact, Um, they're They're not
Speaker 1: uncommon a bitcoin at all. UM. Drops seem to happen
Speaker 1: almost like on a monthly basis. UM. And if you
Speaker 1: look at us, UM, any of the big tech stalks,
Speaker 1: like look at Amazon for example, UM, Amazon's dropped I
Speaker 1: think eight times it's dropped. I want to say two
Speaker 1: or three times. I don't have the exact number in
Speaker 1: front of you. UM. And so when you're looking at
Speaker 1: a you know, groundbreaking you know, I don't want to
Speaker 1: say revolutionary technology, Amazon's not, but it's a groundbreaking new company,
Speaker 1: you know e commerce that lead that niche Yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean it's Vlatil dropped you know two or three times. Um.
Speaker 1: And so you know, Bitcoin throughout its live and cryptocurrencies
Speaker 1: on these on these kind of bear markets, it typically
Speaker 1: would drop, you know, and then it's now maybe the
Speaker 1: drops is what we have, but there could be more.
Speaker 1: Now if I'm looking at cryptocurrencies overall, UM, we see
Speaker 1: that um the other cryptocurrencies, and I like to specify bitcoin,
Speaker 1: not crypto. So we look at bitcoin as one unit,
Speaker 1: and then we look at all the other cryptocurrencies kind
Speaker 1: of together. And some of you might be triggered by that.
Speaker 1: Sorry by the way, you're listening to the Mark Moa
Speaker 1: Show and we're talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and so um.
Speaker 1: If we look at Bitcoin, we can see, like I said,
Speaker 1: we're down about off of its all time high. But
Speaker 1: but the everything below that, if you look at all
Speaker 1: the fifteen thousand cryptocurrencies and everything from number two down,
Speaker 1: they're all basically fighting against each other. And what we've
Speaker 1: seen is we've seen this super hyped up narrative coins,
Speaker 1: the dodge coins, the dog coins, the salont on the coins, etcetera. Um,
Speaker 1: they've been super hyped up and we've seen all of them.
Speaker 1: And if you look at you know, most of the
Speaker 1: coins in the top ten, um, they're all downe um
Speaker 1: compared to Bitcoin, you know, down now. Part of that
Speaker 1: is because those also maybe went up a lot more,
Speaker 1: but they've basically done what we would call a round trip.
Speaker 1: And this is a key piece if you're looking at
Speaker 1: trading and and things like that, which I don't advise,
Speaker 1: but they've basically gone all the way up and they're
Speaker 1: all the way back down to where they were about August,
Speaker 1: and so maybe that's actually a good sign. A lot
Speaker 1: of you may be wanting to know, is now the
Speaker 1: time to buy? Is now the time to buy? Or
Speaker 1: Mark is there is there going to be more price drop?
Speaker 1: Should I wait? Should I buy now? Or should I wait?
Speaker 1: It's funny because whenever the price is making new all
Speaker 1: time highs um, I got friends coming out of the woodwork,
Speaker 1: people maybe haven't talked to five six years, or messaging me,
Speaker 1: texting me or emailing me, hey, should I buy? Should
Speaker 1: I buy? They want to buy one it's at the peak,
Speaker 1: but whenever it drops down here then they don't seem
Speaker 1: to want to buy. But the question is is should
Speaker 1: you buy now? Should you buy cryptocurrencies or bitcoin now?
Speaker 1: Or based off of what the Fed is doing? Should
Speaker 1: we wait? Could we wait for a better time to buy?
Speaker 1: And actually, I'm going to tell you that I'm gonna
Speaker 1: consult my Crystal Ball and I'm gonna give you the
Speaker 1: answer to that question. Tell you what I think should
Speaker 1: you buy bitcoin and cryptocurrencies right now? What you should expect.
Speaker 1: Listen to the Mark Mo Show talking about these topics.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna come back and tell you the answer that
Speaker 1: question in a second, so do not go away. Hey, everyone,
Speaker 1: welcome back to the Mark Moa Show. While we're talking
Speaker 1: about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and this decentralized revolution that's happening,
Speaker 1: and I've just spent the last few minutes, most of
Speaker 1: this hour talking about the Federal Reserve Jerome Poal, who
Speaker 1: heads the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the United States,
Speaker 1: and how they're basically wrecking the world and how the
Speaker 1: whole world is hanging on their every word word to
Speaker 1: wonder what the price of their gas will be, and
Speaker 1: how much their steak will be, and how much their
Speaker 1: home will be worth, and what will bitcoin be worth
Speaker 1: as well. And I I made the point that that's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm laughing about it just thinking about how ridiculous.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you just just look at that from
Speaker 1: the outside for a second, the fact that one person
Speaker 1: or one group of people have the power to make
Speaker 1: you rich or poor. You have no privy to that
Speaker 1: information that they have. I don't, and I study this
Speaker 1: and you don't. So you're out there doing your best.
Speaker 1: You know, you're working hard. You're saving your money, you're
Speaker 1: you're you know, maybe you're starting a business. You've sacrificed
Speaker 1: your life savings for this business. You're putting your blood, sweat,
Speaker 1: and tears into it. You're sacrificing time with your family
Speaker 1: so you can do this business. And you're doing the
Speaker 1: best that you can with the information that you have available.
Speaker 1: You look at the price of money, you look at
Speaker 1: interest rates, you look at inflation, you look at the demand. Yes,
Speaker 1: I think people want this product. Yes, I think it's
Speaker 1: worth the risk. I know. I know businesses fail. I
Speaker 1: get that, but I'm gonna take this chance because I
Speaker 1: need to get ahead for my family. And you do
Speaker 1: the best that you can. Or or you're working a
Speaker 1: job and you're saving your money and you're putting it
Speaker 1: into your retirement account, doing the best that you can.
Speaker 1: But there's a group of people in Washington that have
Speaker 1: all the power over your life, and it has you
Speaker 1: have zero control over it. There's nothing that you can do.
Speaker 1: You can either one not do anything, so you could
Speaker 1: not save and you could not invest, and you're just
Speaker 1: gonna fall further and further behind because the amount of
Speaker 1: money they're printing their debasing the currency so fast that
Speaker 1: you can't afford to live off your wages anymore. You'll
Speaker 1: never retire. So you have to You have to play
Speaker 1: the game. It's a game of musical chairs. You played
Speaker 1: that when you're a kid, right, You go round and
Speaker 1: round and round on the chairs. When whenever the person
Speaker 1: decides to stop the music, you have to sit down.
Speaker 1: But there's not enough charish for everyone. And so you
Speaker 1: have to play the game because if you don't get
Speaker 1: left bhy. So if you play, the problem is that
Speaker 1: Jerome power if Illow Reserve, they worked the music. They
Speaker 1: dump eight trillion dollars into the economy over the last
Speaker 1: twenty four months. The market shoots up higher, real estate
Speaker 1: goes higher, businesses go higher. Everything's great, and then they
Speaker 1: just sucked the money right back out. They don't tell
Speaker 1: you when you have no control over that. And that's
Speaker 1: not okay. That's what bitcoin fixes. Now. Yes, bitcoin goes
Speaker 1: up and down. The US dollar value goes up and
Speaker 1: down as well, But that's not that's not what I'm
Speaker 1: talking about. Bitcoin takes away the ability of any person
Speaker 1: to control the money supply. It's not about it's not
Speaker 1: about taking the money, taking the power away from Jerome
Speaker 1: Power or the FED. It's not It's not about giving
Speaker 1: it to somebody else. It's not about where we should
Speaker 1: vote on it. It's not about where we have a
Speaker 1: different group controlling it. It's about nobody controlling it. It's
Speaker 1: about nobody being able to influence it or increase the
Speaker 1: money supply or decrease the money supply. That's what inflation is.
Speaker 1: Inflation is not the prices going up and down. Inflation
Speaker 1: is the amount of money increasing or decreasing. So um, anyway,
Speaker 1: that's my rant. Let's go back to what I said.
Speaker 1: I consulted my crystal ball while we're on commercial break,
Speaker 1: and I asked the crystal ball, should you buy bitcoin
Speaker 1: now or should you wait? So let me give you
Speaker 1: the what they what they told me, They said, it
Speaker 1: depends what what kind of answer is that? Well, it
Speaker 1: depends on you. It depends on what kind of person
Speaker 1: you are. So let me give you some framework to
Speaker 1: think about this. So a couple of ways I'd look
Speaker 1: at it, um, Because I don't really have a crystal
Speaker 1: ball and I don't really know what the future holds.
Speaker 1: There's a few things I would say. One Um, the
Speaker 1: price of bitcoin has continued to march higher every single year.
Speaker 1: So since its inception over a decade ago, every single
Speaker 1: year the lowest point has always been higher every year.
Speaker 1: And so instead of always looking at where we are
Speaker 1: from the highest point, look where we are making progress
Speaker 1: on the lowest point. So you could have pretty much
Speaker 1: bought it any point in time except for the last
Speaker 1: thirty days and be in profit. Um And so that's
Speaker 1: when we look at it. And so a lot of
Speaker 1: it depends on your time frame. What you're looking for.
Speaker 1: If you're putting money away that you want to say
Speaker 1: for retirement, and that's a long time frame five years
Speaker 1: or more. For me, I'm looking at ways I can
Speaker 1: lock my bitcoin up and trust so my kids can't
Speaker 1: even sell it. It's gonna and my grandkids can't even
Speaker 1: sell it. So that's my time frame. But depending on
Speaker 1: what your time frame is, I would say a couple
Speaker 1: of things. Either one the best, the answer that's going
Speaker 1: to be the safest for you is to do something
Speaker 1: called dollar cost averaging d c A. And what that
Speaker 1: means is let's say that you have, um, you know,
Speaker 1: a thousand dollars to put the bitcoin, or ten thousand
Speaker 1: dollars or a million dollars whatever you have. Instead of
Speaker 1: putting all of that in in a lump sum, what
Speaker 1: you do is you break it apart. Then you break
Speaker 1: it into into pieces. And so you say, I have
Speaker 1: a thousand bucks, so I'm gonna put twenty five bucks
Speaker 1: in every Friday, and you can use a platform like
Speaker 1: swan bitcoin and they can set up that like a
Speaker 1: a reoccurring by really easy for you. Um so go
Speaker 1: to swaan bitcoin. It's super easy to use like an app.
Speaker 1: You can say I want to buy ten bucks every
Speaker 1: Friday and just automatically does that for you. That's one
Speaker 1: way to do it. You could do it every friday,
Speaker 1: it every every two weeks when you get your paycheck,
Speaker 1: once a month, once a quarter, or whateveryone. And so
Speaker 1: that's that's the that's the one way to do. What
Speaker 1: happens is let's say that you start buying now at
Speaker 1: thirty seven, thirty eight thousand, and then it goes down
Speaker 1: to thirty five while you buy a little more and
Speaker 1: it goes at the thirty and then let's say, let's
Speaker 1: say it goes all the way down to twenty, so
Speaker 1: you buy some more twenties. So then what happens is
Speaker 1: you bought some at thirty. Let's say for easy numbers,
Speaker 1: let's say you bought some at forty. You bought you
Speaker 1: bought a hundred dollars worth at forty, and then you
Speaker 1: bought a hundred dollars worth at thirty, or let's call
Speaker 1: it a hundred dollars at twenty, So a hundred at forty. Well,
Speaker 1: now you average that, So now you're blended. Cost of
Speaker 1: your bitcoin is now thirty thousand. So if you're afraid
Speaker 1: or you think that bitcoin could continue going down, then
Speaker 1: dollar cost average and take the amount of money you
Speaker 1: want to put in now. Typically that would be a percentage.
Speaker 1: So you may decide that you want to put five
Speaker 1: percent of your total investible assets into bitcoin, but instead
Speaker 1: of putting it all in at once, you break it
Speaker 1: apart and you put it on a weekly basis or
Speaker 1: bi weekly or monthly basis. That's that's number one. UM.
Speaker 1: But for some of you who don't have the patience
Speaker 1: for that, I don't have the time for that. UM.
Speaker 1: I think now is a pretty good price. Now, UM,
Speaker 1: we're down about a fifty percent retracement. Historically, a fifty
Speaker 1: percent retracement has been pretty good. Like I said, in
Speaker 1: May one. We got that. Um. When we look at
Speaker 1: some other metrics, that looks like it can be pretty good,
Speaker 1: but we don't know what the Federal Reserve is gonna do.
Speaker 1: That's the whole problem. What happens is whenever the Fed
Speaker 1: sucks the liquidity out, than anything that's liquid becomes liquidity.
Speaker 1: So what do I mean by that? If you go
Speaker 1: back to the two thou great financial crash, you see that, um,
Speaker 1: the whole market sold off, right, stocks sold off six gold.
Speaker 1: Gold is supposed to be the chaos hedge. Right, it's
Speaker 1: supposed to be the opposite. Well, what gold sold off
Speaker 1: as well, But the different says when when the markets
Speaker 1: sold off six, gold only sold off about But that's
Speaker 1: only part of the part of the equation. What actually
Speaker 1: happened is that gold rebounded almost immediately and within seven
Speaker 1: months had reclaimed it's all time high. It took the
Speaker 1: stock markets seven years, and gold went on to make
Speaker 1: crazy new all time eyes where the stock didn't. And
Speaker 1: if we look at March, the same thing happened. Everything
Speaker 1: sold off in March, everything including bitcoin, including gold. But
Speaker 1: bitcoin rebounded from thirty eight hundred to seventy thousand. Gold
Speaker 1: rebounded and shot to new all time highs as well.
Speaker 1: So while everything gets dragged down temporarily in a liquidity crisis,
Speaker 1: it's what happens after liquidity crisis that matters. And so
Speaker 1: while bitcoin is kind of at the whims of what
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is gonna do, and I don't know
Speaker 1: what your own pal is going to do next, I'm
Speaker 1: guessing that they're going to pivot. I'm guessing that they
Speaker 1: won't actually go through with all these great high I'm
Speaker 1: guessing that they really don't want the markets to crash
Speaker 1: because they just spent eight I'm sorry, eight trillion dollars
Speaker 1: to prop them up. I don't think they would have
Speaker 1: just spent eight trillion to let them go. Now, that's
Speaker 1: my guests, because I don't know. So the answer to
Speaker 1: the question should you buy bitcoin and cryptocurrencies now? For
Speaker 1: bitcoin if you like it, uh, and you're afraid of
Speaker 1: more drops dollar cost average in if you just want
Speaker 1: to lump some buy I think it's a pretty darn
Speaker 1: good price. You're buying cheaper than some of the smartest
Speaker 1: guys in the world, um like Jack Dorsey from Twitter
Speaker 1: and his company Block or for like Michael Sailor from
Speaker 1: strategy or like the nation of El Salvador. So if
Speaker 1: you can buy cheaper than they bought, that's a pretty
Speaker 1: good entry in my opinion. Um so maybe the lump
Speaker 1: some by if you're in that camp, if you're afraid
Speaker 1: that's gonna go down, then dollar cost average in as
Speaker 1: far as the cryptocurrencies, man, if anybody's gamble, the top
Speaker 1: ten rotate all the time, and who knows what we're
Speaker 1: gonna be the next next ones. Um at the top ten,
Speaker 1: So close your eyes through a dart and have fun
Speaker 1: with that. You're listening to the Mark Moa Show. We're
Speaker 1: talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution. We're
Speaker 1: talked about the FED and what they're doing. Hope you
Speaker 1: enjoyed it. Thanks for listening.