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Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to the Action Network NFL podcast.

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Speaker 1: It is a special as Friday evening Saturday morning edition

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Speaker 1: of the show. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 1: of Fantasy Labs, and joining me to talk about today's

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Speaker 1: news is Chris Raybon, a senior editor and analyst at

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Speaker 1: the Action Network, in a co host of I'll Take

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Speaker 1: That Bet on ESPN Plus. You can follow him in

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Speaker 1: the Action Network app at Chris Raybon Chris. The reason

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Speaker 1: we are doing the show is because news just broke

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Speaker 1: of a TMZ report of an incident that happened in

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Speaker 1: February of Kareem Hunt physically assaulting a woman in a

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Speaker 1: hotel hotel lobby, hotel corridor. So obviously horrible thing to witness,

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Speaker 1: but it does have repercussions potentially on the sporting events

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Speaker 1: for this weekend, so we want to jump into that

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Speaker 1: pretty quickly. As a side note, we have updated our

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Speaker 1: rankings and our models. We have taken cream Hunt out

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Speaker 1: of our models as of now under the assumption that

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Speaker 1: he will not be playing this weekend, and in our rankings,

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Speaker 1: which people can find at Action network dot com Slash Fantasy,

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Speaker 1: we have bumped up where significantly, So he's in the

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Speaker 1: top twelve right now, and obviously people can check out

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Speaker 1: those rankings. And Ian Hartz, I should mention, has written

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Speaker 1: a great piece looking at this from a variety of

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Speaker 1: season long and DFS perspectives, so people should be sure

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Speaker 1: to check out that piece at the Action Network, Chris,

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Speaker 1: let's jump into it and talk about the impact that

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Speaker 1: this could have on the slate. Obviously, assuming that Kareem

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Speaker 1: Hunt will not play this weekend, what is your perspective

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Speaker 1: on Spencer Ware?

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Speaker 2: Well, spencer Ware, I think he can fill in very adequately.

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Speaker 2: Remember he was actually going to be the starter before

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Speaker 2: getting hurt prior to the twenty seventeen season, So this

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Speaker 2: is a guy that Andy Reid trusts. He's the backup

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Speaker 2: for a reason, and I think he's going to kind

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Speaker 2: of step right in there and fill that Hunt roll.

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Speaker 2: Remember it was where that actually got a lot of

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Speaker 2: the passing down snaps anyway, because he's actually trusted as

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Speaker 2: a better pass blocker then Kareem Hunt in a lot

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Speaker 2: of situations. So the one thing I think from a

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Speaker 2: projection standpoint, I think you'll see a similar number of carries,

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Speaker 2: but it's possible that.

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Speaker 3: Where actually stays in the block a little more than Hunt.

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Speaker 2: He's a little better of a blocker and not quite

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Speaker 2: as supposed to an athlete overall, so they might opt

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Speaker 2: to go with maybe using the you know, the second

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Speaker 2: tight end, Demetrius Paris a little bit more.

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Speaker 3: It remains to be seen.

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Speaker 2: But the bottom line is, even if you're not getting,

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Speaker 2: you know, the full amount of points that you would

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Speaker 2: have gotten from Kareem Hunt, you're still getting somewhere pretty

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Speaker 2: close to that amount of points in fantasies that you

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Speaker 2: would have got from Hunt.

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Speaker 3: So where is to FORCEI he's the.

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Speaker 2: Number eight running back on the main slate in terms

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Speaker 2: of raw projected points, and he is the top projected

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Speaker 2: plus minus on both fandel and DraftKings by a why margin.

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Speaker 1: So if we look at his twenty sixteen breakout season,

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Speaker 1: he was actually a pretty good receiver. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: he's not the athlete that Kareem Hunt is, not quite

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Speaker 1: as good as a pass catcher, but still pretty good

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Speaker 1: as a receiver. So I think there is the real

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Speaker 1: possibility that he could I mean it's not going to

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Speaker 1: be like a clear one for one, but that he

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Speaker 1: really will be a locked in, three down back. So

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Speaker 1: Adam Levinton hasn't updated the projections yet, the ownership projections

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Speaker 1: yet in our models, but easily he's going to be

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Speaker 1: the highest roster player on the slate, don't you think.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And of course this is assuming that you know, Hunt

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Speaker 2: does face discipline immediately, which you know likely to happen,

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Speaker 2: just because you know, for optics reasons, the league doesn't

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Speaker 2: have to like suspend him or anything like that, but

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Speaker 2: they you know, they could, they could do some different things,

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Speaker 2: you know, or the team itself could do some different things.

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Speaker 2: So we have to kind of prepare like he's not

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Speaker 2: going to play. And yeah, I think before this the

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Speaker 2: interesting thing was, I think Carl's Hyde was probably going

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Speaker 2: to kind of be that chalk running back that you

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Speaker 2: could play for the on the cheap if you needed

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Speaker 2: to save some salary. And now where is essentially taken

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Speaker 2: over as that guy. So that creates some leverage on

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Speaker 2: high to create some leverage on a guy like TJ Yelden,

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Speaker 2: especially on DraftKings, where that site is going to him

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Speaker 2: better because it's full PPR.

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Speaker 3: And also you could think.

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Speaker 2: About combining both of those guys if you're really looking

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Speaker 2: to get some leverage there because that allows you to

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Speaker 2: build a roster of a lot of high priced pass catchers,

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Speaker 2: and I think this week there are some pass catchers

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Speaker 2: that I don't think people want to touch quite as

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Speaker 2: much because of perceived matchups. I mean, you have Devonte

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Speaker 2: Adams in the snow against Patrick Peterson. You have Odell

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Speaker 2: beckap against a really good Chicago defense. You have Tyreek

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Speaker 2: Hill all the way up at ninety one hundred on DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: You have Julio Jones going against the Baltimore defense, which

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Speaker 2: I think the perception is that they're probably better than

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Speaker 2: they actually are. So I think that's another way to

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Speaker 2: attack it, is to actually consider utilizing both of these

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Speaker 2: salary savers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think one thing that is interesting is

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Speaker 1: this might change potentially the exposure that people have to

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Kill, just because if they are rostering one player

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Speaker 1: on that offense, they might not want to roster two

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Speaker 1: of them. But one thing that is notable from a

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Speaker 1: betting perspective, this game has haven't been taken off the board,

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Speaker 1: at least where I'm looking right now. I still see

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Speaker 1: it posted, and the line really hasn't shifted significantly, which

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Speaker 1: isn't surprising considering that you know, running backs tend not

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Speaker 1: to have much of an impact on the line anyway,

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Speaker 1: and then this line is kind of so extreme to

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Speaker 1: begin with that the absence from a game perspective probably

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Speaker 1: won't have much significance.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, I think, you know, quarterbacks, pass rushers, those are

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Speaker 2: going to be that the two primary positions that are really.

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Speaker 3: Going to to move lines.

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Speaker 2: Or just like a superstar on an offense with no

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Speaker 2: other superstars. But you know this offense you mentioned it.

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Speaker 3: You have Tyreek Kill, you have Patrick Mahomes, and you

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Speaker 3: know Spencer.

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Speaker 2: Where his career and of course this is a very

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of noise always in these numbers, but

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Speaker 2: you know, from a descriptive standpoint, at least Spencer Ware

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Speaker 2: has done just fine. He's averaged for his career four

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Speaker 2: point seven yards per carry and eleven point six yards

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Speaker 2: per catch for his career. So those are excellent numbers

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Speaker 2: for a running back. And it speaks to not just where,

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Speaker 2: but also just you know, being in this Andy Reid offense,

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Speaker 2: and when you have all these pieces around you, it's.

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Speaker 3: Extremely easy to succeed.

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Speaker 2: So I wouldn't worry about where much from an efficiency standpoint,

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Speaker 2: especially not against the open Raiders who are one of

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Speaker 2: the worst defenses, if not the worst defense in the league.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, certainly we're talking about a guy in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen had thirteen hundred sixty eight yards from scrimmage

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Speaker 1: in fourteen games. That's significant. This is someone who actually

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Speaker 1: not just has the ability to be a lead back,

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Speaker 1: but has actually done it before. Definitely an intriguing possibility

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Speaker 1: he could be. I mean I almost say like a

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Speaker 1: GPP winner. But he's someone who's going to be locked

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Speaker 1: into cash games for sure.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean he's probably going to He's going to

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Speaker 2: decide to slay one way or another because he's going

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Speaker 2: to be the iPhone player and if he smashes, he's

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Speaker 2: almost certainly going to be in the winning GBP lineup.

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Speaker 2: So I think, you know this is you have a

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Speaker 2: really good shot at him at him being a gppner,

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Speaker 2: So you know, definitely somebody to monitor. I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: interesting if you look at Spencer ware career five point

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Speaker 2: seven yards per touch on average, Kareem Hunt five point six.

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Speaker 2: So I really shouldn't expect too much of a drop off.

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Speaker 2: I think the question is just where hasn't really played

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Speaker 2: an entire game in a while. So you just wonder,

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Speaker 2: are they because Kareem Hunt was getting anywhere from you know,

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Speaker 2: seventy to almost all the snaps in a given game

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Speaker 2: the seventy percent.

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Speaker 3: So will they play.

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Speaker 2: Hunt in that, you know, for that same amount of snaps,

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Speaker 2: or will they mix in Damian Williams.

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Speaker 3: The third string back as well.

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Speaker 2: Again, from an efficiency standpoint, I don't think you should

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Speaker 2: be worried at all.

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Speaker 3: I think you should be excited.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And if anything, I mean, like he could have

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Speaker 1: like those fresh legs. Like there are those guys that

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Speaker 1: like kind of emerge sometimes in the second half of

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Speaker 1: seasons where they haven't been playing, and they just, you know,

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Speaker 1: because they don't have all of that, like that accumulation

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Speaker 1: of hits from the first half of the season, they're

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Speaker 1: just able to kind of play at a higher speed

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Speaker 1: than a lot of the other guys around them. So

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Speaker 1: you never know, it really could end up being a

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Speaker 1: pretty dynamic situation. Chris, any other thoughts for this slate

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Speaker 1: regarding Spencer Ware, Well.

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Speaker 2: You know, now you have to start thinking more about pivots,

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Speaker 2: just because if he indeed is an option on this slate,

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Speaker 2: he's again going to be the highest owned player, So

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Speaker 2: now you have to kind of look and say, Okay,

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Speaker 2: you know who am I going to kind of pivot

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Speaker 2: off aware and on DraftKings. You know, he's priced at

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Speaker 2: four thousand dollars, so you have some guys around him

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Speaker 2: that are projected for for zero to one percent ownership

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Speaker 2: right now that you know could get significant touches. One

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Speaker 2: of those players is in this same game on the

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Speaker 2: opposite side. That is Doug Martin on the other side

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Speaker 2: of the ball. He's been kind of the guy in

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Speaker 2: that backfield for John Gruden. He has double digit touches

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Speaker 2: in each of his last five games. Hasn't really smashed

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Speaker 2: at all, but he did go eleven to fifty one

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Speaker 2: in a touchdown last week and also was targeted four

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Speaker 2: times and caught three passes for twenty one yards.

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Speaker 3: So that's kind of the you want to think about him.

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Speaker 2: You want to think about player like like Garret Blunt

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Speaker 2: at thirty nine hundred, who you know, we saw what

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Speaker 2: he did against a pretty good Chicago run defense last week.

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Speaker 2: Now he faces a Rams run defense which is one

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Speaker 2: of the worst in the league. Assuming Kerry on Johnson's out,

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Speaker 2: which it looks like he will be, so you have

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Speaker 2: to think about those kind of pivots as well, because

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Speaker 2: you know, if you're if you're the type that's entering

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Speaker 2: tournaments where you're not making like one hundred and fifty lineups,

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Speaker 2: then you have a lot more leverage probably in just

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Speaker 2: you know, pivoting off of off of the highest owned

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Speaker 2: player on the sleep.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So it might be one of those situations where yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean you you maybe go all in on Spencer

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Speaker 1: where and cash and you fade in GPPs. Any running back,

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Speaker 1: I mean it guess really any any football player in general,

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Speaker 1: because it's just it's such a volatile sport. Who approaches

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Speaker 1: I mean, what do we think his ownership projection is

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Speaker 1: going to be?

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Speaker 3: Uh?

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Speaker 2: Or what's the high plus whatever the highest is that

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Speaker 2: we can project I think, yeah, it's like forty one plus. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think in like in reality it could it could

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Speaker 2: very well hit you know, above fifty percent.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I guess strategically, big picture, any player

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Speaker 1: who has an ownership projection that high, do you think

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Speaker 1: he's basically an automatic fade in GPPs?

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Speaker 3: Not an automatic fate.

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Speaker 2: I think it all again, it comes down to your

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Speaker 2: exposure if you're because it's all about probabilities, right, It's like,

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Speaker 2: what is the probability of him.

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Speaker 3: Being in your lineup and helping you versus the probability

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Speaker 3: of him busting.

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Speaker 2: And there's a good chance of him, you know, being

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Speaker 2: you know, the top value on the sleep, but there's

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Speaker 2: also you know, when you're talking about a player he's

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Speaker 2: gonna be in fifty percent lineups and you only are

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Speaker 2: making like two lineups, then you don't really have a

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Speaker 2: lot of upside to playing him because the likelihood of

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Speaker 2: you being able to hit the right combination around him

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Speaker 2: on only two tries is very low. But if you

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Speaker 2: are a Maxwell and fifty player, for example, you have

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Speaker 2: so many tries that it does make more sense to

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Speaker 2: kind of devote maybe you know, twenty percent of your

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Speaker 2: tries to doing that because you still, let's say he's

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Speaker 2: owned forty percent, you would still have leverage on the

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Speaker 2: field in that you're only going half as heavy on

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Speaker 2: him as the field, and you're still giving yourself. You're

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Speaker 2: still not kind of like foregoing value either. So it

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Speaker 2: really comes down to what kind of a DFS player

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Speaker 2: you are.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, obviously this will be interesting to see

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Speaker 1: how the spencer ware situation unfolds. I will be looking

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Speaker 1: at as player props by the way, which gives me

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Speaker 1: the opportunity to mention our props tool at Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 1: It is powered by our industry leading projections created by

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Speaker 1: Seawn Corner aka the Odds Maker. This season, the NFL

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00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:34,959
Speaker 1: props with the back quality of ten are one, ninety six,

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00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,280
Speaker 1: ninety one, and nine, good for a hit rate of

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Speaker 1: sixty six percent. To access the tool, subscribe to Fantasy Labs,

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Speaker 1: where you can get a five day trial for just

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Speaker 1: fifteen ninety five. Okay, that is going to do it

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Speaker 1: for this special edition of the Action Network NFL podcast.

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Speaker 1: Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe for all of

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Speaker 1: our upcoming episodes. For Chris Raybond, I'm Matthew Friedman, Matt

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Speaker 1: f The Oracle See Again next episode