Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 3: Happy Friday, Welcome to the threshold of the weekend Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Sound On on the radio, satellite, and YouTube. I'm Joe
Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington, where we're counting down here right three
Speaker 3: days to Iowa, one week to a partial government shutdown.
Speaker 3: We'll get back to Iowa in a minute because we
Speaker 3: have news from Capitol Hill. As the Speaker of the
Speaker 3: House says he is standing by the deal, maybe we
Speaker 3: will not be shutting down next week, although how we
Speaker 3: get it all done in time is another matter. The
Speaker 3: Speaker did talk to reporters earlier, remembering the reagreement as
Speaker 3: we called it between the Speaker and Chuck Schumer on
Speaker 3: top line spending levels. Without them, We're nowhere here, he
Speaker 3: is from a short time ago.
Speaker 4: Our topline agreement remains.
Speaker 5: We are getting our next steps together, and we are
Speaker 5: working toward a robust appropriations process. All rights simple as that.
Speaker 5: Nothing to see here, move right along.
Speaker 3: The issue, of course, is the few number of legislative
Speaker 3: days left to make this happen, and it begs the question,
Speaker 3: as we're hearing from the Senate, what about a CR?
Speaker 3: Will there be a short term of funding solution here?
Speaker 3: Because obviously, folks, as we've been hearing very loudly on
Speaker 3: the Freedom Caucus to the Speaker's right flank, if I
Speaker 3: can even put it that way, are not in favor
Speaker 3: of a CR. Bob Good the share of the Freedom
Speaker 3: Caucus saying don't fear the shutdown, and we've heard that
Speaker 3: from him before. The question is how it all might
Speaker 3: come together, remembering the lattered CR right this next Friday
Speaker 3: is the first tranch, the first four spending bills February tecod.
Speaker 3: The rest of the government would shut down, and that's
Speaker 3: the big stuff like defense, which is why a lot
Speaker 3: of people are looking at.
Speaker 5: That is the real date. And this is where we
Speaker 5: start our conversation.
Speaker 3: With Congressman Buddy Carter, the Republican from Georgia, is with
Speaker 3: us on this Friday, and it's good to see you. Congressman.
Speaker 3: Welcome back to Bloomberg. What do you think is going
Speaker 3: to happen here? Can we get is done in time?
Speaker 3: Or does a CR seem inevitable.
Speaker 6: At this point, it does seem like a CR is inevitable.
Speaker 6: I don't see how we could get it done. Not
Speaker 6: the way the Senate operates, not the way that not
Speaker 6: the amount of time it's going to take for them
Speaker 6: to get it through their body. I just don't see
Speaker 6: that happening. And I suspect even though this speaker has
Speaker 6: said that he does not want any more short term crs,
Speaker 6: I don't see any way around it short of a
Speaker 6: partial shutdown.
Speaker 3: The idea of a CR for the rest of the
Speaker 3: fiscal year has even been floated. Congressman, is that the
Speaker 3: world we're in? Or would a little more time actually
Speaker 3: help write these twelve spending bills?
Speaker 6: Well, I think a little more time would help. You know,
Speaker 6: we've been out for three weeks with Christmas and everything,
Speaker 6: and then but the time, a little bit of time
Speaker 6: would help. I do think we're closer than what it
Speaker 6: may appear. We got the top line number.
Speaker 7: Now.
Speaker 6: I know that there are some in our conference who
Speaker 6: were not happy with that top line number, But I
Speaker 6: don't know that they're not happy about the top line
Speaker 6: number as much as they are about the side deals.
Speaker 6: The side deals is what really bothers me that much,
Speaker 6: and that takes that one point five to nine up
Speaker 6: to almost one point eight, I mean, and it's the
Speaker 6: side deals are what really bothers me. Now, having said that,
Speaker 6: I will tell you that I think that the Speaker
Speaker 6: was successful in getting some good immediate cuts in the budget,
Speaker 6: real money cuts, ten billion dollars in IRS, six billion
Speaker 6: dollars in in the COVID slush fund, clawing that back
Speaker 6: sixteen billion dollars. And that's nothing to laugh at. That's
Speaker 6: real money. So that was good. And we also got
Speaker 6: some of the budget gimmicks that are just ridiculous, that
Speaker 6: we got rid of some of those. So there was
Speaker 6: some gain in this, and I think the Speaker did
Speaker 6: the best he could do at this time with a
Speaker 6: slim majority and only one leg of the three legged stool.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you consider yourself an ally of the speaker right
Speaker 3: because he's hearing some pretty tough talk from the Freedom Caucus.
Speaker 3: We're hearing motion to vacate again, or at least on
Speaker 3: the table, the idea that if he does what Kevin
Speaker 3: McCarthy did, he could be fired.
Speaker 5: Where do you fall on this representative?
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, I thought Kevin McCarthy got a
Speaker 6: raw deal, and I was a big supporter of Kevin,
Speaker 6: and I just think that was absolutely wrong. I am
Speaker 6: a supporter of Mike Johnson's I want him to be successful.
Speaker 6: I want him to help I want to help him
Speaker 6: be successful, and I want to help us be successful. Look,
Speaker 6: no one wants to cut spending as much as I do.
Speaker 6: It is out of control. Let me tell you right now,
Speaker 6: the federal government is taking in through revenue and everything
Speaker 6: else and land deals, whatever it may be. Six point
Speaker 6: four tree dollars. That's six point four treeion dollars that
Speaker 6: we are spending every year. That's two hundred and four
Speaker 6: thousand dollars per second. The speed of light is one
Speaker 6: hundred and eighty six thousand miles per second. We are
Speaker 6: spending money faster than the speed of light. That is unsustainable.
Speaker 6: We've got to stop that. We've got to stop this
Speaker 6: outrageous spending. I get it. And let's also keep in
Speaker 6: mind doing those on the right, a lot of what
Speaker 6: they are concerned about is the southern border, and we
Speaker 6: need to get that southern border as part of this.
Speaker 6: This is our leverage to get real reforms done at
Speaker 6: the southern border.
Speaker 3: Well, I'd like to hear from you on that a
Speaker 3: little bit more, because we've spent weeks in a couple
Speaker 3: of months here talking about a potential deal on the
Speaker 3: border that would be tied to the supplemental funding request
Speaker 3: for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. But we have been hearing
Speaker 3: from more Republican House members that they want to see
Speaker 3: border in this spending bill. And I think Chip Roy
Speaker 3: in fact, is the one who's saying either close the
Speaker 3: border or close the government.
Speaker 5: Do you feel that.
Speaker 6: Way, Well, you know, I'd rather see I have secured
Speaker 6: the border and shut down the border than I would
Speaker 6: see US shut down the government. Government shutdowns are just
Speaker 6: not good. I've been through a number of them, and
Speaker 6: and you just made the comment of a minute ago
Speaker 6: that it's you know, how do you get into one? Well,
Speaker 6: it's not so much how you get into one, is
Speaker 6: how you get out of one. It's difficult to get
Speaker 6: out of a shutdown, inexpensive. But at the same time,
Speaker 6: a government shutdown is not the worst thing that could happen.
Speaker 6: The worst thing that could happen would be for us
Speaker 6: not to get anything out of that southern border, not
Speaker 6: to get any kind of policy reforms, any kind of
Speaker 6: in making sure we're enforcing the laws that are on
Speaker 6: the books right now. That's one of the things that
Speaker 6: needs to be done. That's why Mayor Orcus needs to go.
Speaker 6: He needs to be impeached and because he's not enforcing
Speaker 6: the laws that are on the book right now. But
Speaker 6: we need that. We need that at the southern border.
Speaker 6: We also need to stop this outrage is spending.
Speaker 3: A lot of folks have suggested that the timing of
Speaker 3: a Mijorca impeachment could needcap this whole idea of crafting
Speaker 3: a deal on the border. It's a sentiment that even
Speaker 3: Senator Jim Langfort has expressed the Chief Republican at the table,
Speaker 3: you're on the border on the Budget committee, Rather, Congressman,
Speaker 3: how much time do you actually need if these top
Speaker 3: line spending levels are in place, can you get it
Speaker 3: done in the next two three weeks?
Speaker 6: We could, I'm very optimistic. And again a lot of
Speaker 6: that depends on the Senate. The rules in the Senate
Speaker 6: are different and it takes some time to get things
Speaker 6: like this done. So but on the House side, we
Speaker 6: could get it done rather quickly. Yes, But then again
Speaker 6: keep in mind it's got to go through the Senate.
Speaker 6: Not only that, but these are this is a lot
Speaker 6: of work for staff to do. Staff's going to need
Speaker 6: a couple of three days to get all these numbers
Speaker 6: put together. So it's not like, oh, it passed the Senate,
Speaker 6: it passed the House, then it goes to the President's desk. Well,
Speaker 6: there's going to be a little interlude there as well.
Speaker 3: Spending time with Congressman Buddy Carter, the Republican from Georgia,
Speaker 3: not only on the Budget Committee, but a member of
Speaker 3: the House that is in some cases outraged by President
Speaker 3: Biden deciding to approve of air strikes, authorize air strikes
Speaker 3: that were conducted last night against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Congressman,
Speaker 3: We've heard from a couple of different quarters of the House.
Speaker 3: It's not every day Rocanna and Mike Lee are agreeing
Speaker 3: on things. Mike Lee says, the Constitution matters regardless of
Speaker 3: party affiliation. Primila Jayapaul, who runs the Progressive Caucus in
Speaker 3: the House, calling him out for a quote unacceptable violation
Speaker 3: of the Constitution.
Speaker 5: What's your thought on that decision by the Commander in chief?
Speaker 5: Was it the right thing to do?
Speaker 6: I think it was the right thing to do, yes,
Speaker 6: and I think it's about time he did it. I mean,
Speaker 6: let's face it, the hoodies had been using our troops,
Speaker 6: our navy is target practice, and we can't allow that
Speaker 6: to happen. We've got to be strong. We've got to
Speaker 6: fight back and have backbone. There's no question about that
Speaker 6: in my mind. Far as the constitutionality of it, you know,
Speaker 6: I'll leave that for others to decide, but you know,
Speaker 6: for us, just to let our troops sit out there,
Speaker 6: let our navy sit out there and be the target
Speaker 6: practice for these terrorists is unacceptable. We've got to fight back.
Speaker 3: I appreciate your time today, Congressman. Thanks for joining us
Speaker 3: from what looks like a warmer place than Iowa right now.
Speaker 3: The gentleman from Georgia, we thank you, Republican Buddy.
Speaker 5: Carter on Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: As we assembled our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano
Speaker 3: have been listening along here and want their take on this.
Speaker 3: I guess we can call it news. The fact that
Speaker 3: the Speaker is not backing out of a top line
Speaker 3: spending deal.
Speaker 5: Maybe we won't shut down.
Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. What do
Speaker 3: you think here, Rick, it's on again, off again with
Speaker 3: this speaker, and he's got a right flank that's apparently
Speaker 3: pretty angry with him. Does he have enough, buddy Carter's
Speaker 3: to get something done here?
Speaker 8: Yeah?
Speaker 9: Look, I mean, I think he's not going to get
Speaker 9: a majority of the Republican vote because it only takes
Speaker 9: a couple of guys in the Freedom Caucus to hold
Speaker 9: things up if it were just a Republican vote. But
Speaker 9: the reality is this is going to be voted on
Speaker 9: by the entire House of Representatives, and there are plenty
Speaker 9: of Democratic votes to try and not close down government.
Speaker 9: So he's got the win it his back. When it
Speaker 9: comes to actually taking a vote, he's going to obviously
Speaker 9: have to violate the one rule that McCarthy tried to
Speaker 9: stick to and ultimately paid the price of his speakership
Speaker 9: by violating it, which is, you know, having more than
Speaker 9: just Republican votes to pass something. And kudos to him
Speaker 9: for agreeing to something that frankly has already been agreed to,
Speaker 9: you know, for the last three months. So you know,
Speaker 9: let's get on with the passage of these appropriations bills
Speaker 9: and let government function in a proper fashion.
Speaker 3: So how you feel? And then, Genie, is it less
Speaker 3: likely that we shut down? It's so difficult to pick
Speaker 3: through the minutia every day and have a sense of
Speaker 3: direction or momentum on these talks. We're celebrating the fact
Speaker 3: that the Speaker is not bailing on a deal that's
Speaker 3: already been made twice.
Speaker 5: Does that keep the government open?
Speaker 6: You know?
Speaker 10: I think it is in everybody's interest, obviously to keep
Speaker 10: the government open. I agree with Rick, there's probably enough
Speaker 10: Democratic votes, certainly enough Democratic votes to keep it open.
Speaker 10: But I think we should take a step back and
Speaker 10: acknowledge this is by no means the way our government
Speaker 10: should be working. This is not regular order. I mean,
Speaker 10: what we're looking at here to your question to the
Speaker 10: representative is either another short term in a long line
Speaker 10: of crs or a longer term. We've had very little
Speaker 10: information from the Speaker, the absence of leadership, the confusing
Speaker 10: messaging is all over the place. So yes, we all hope.
Speaker 10: I hope that he's able to stick with the deal
Speaker 10: he made with Chuck Schumer keep this thing open for
Speaker 10: a little while longer. But at what point are we
Speaker 10: going to have a government that functions in the way
Speaker 10: it should out of Congress. The reality is there is
Speaker 10: no way that we should be living off of short
Speaker 10: term CR and I'm not sure how long the news
Speaker 10: speaker can keep this up. You know, I again hope
Speaker 10: it stays open and we get this CR. But this
Speaker 10: is not regular order, this is not good process, and
Speaker 10: it is shameful to watch the messaging that's gone on.
Speaker 3: Well, I can't imagine that this is real, Rick Davis.
Speaker 3: But apparently the speaker did float the idea, at least
Speaker 3: behind closed doors, of a year long CR, something I
Speaker 3: mentioned to Congressman Buddy Carter.
Speaker 8: There.
Speaker 3: Republicans on the Armed Services Committee freaked out when they
Speaker 3: heard about this because that would amount to a defense
Speaker 3: spending cut. There's no real world where that happens.
Speaker 8: Is there.
Speaker 7: Now?
Speaker 9: Look, I mean, this is a rookie speaker, right, and
Speaker 9: you know, I don't know if he actually understands all
Speaker 9: the ramifications of the things that he kicks out every day.
Speaker 9: People on the Armed Services Committee, a both the House
Speaker 9: and the Senate, the hask and the task would flip
Speaker 9: out if they thought that Republicans were going to be
Speaker 9: party to a significant in defense spending in the middle
Speaker 9: of the crisises that we have going on all around
Speaker 9: the world. I think that's a complete non starter. But
Speaker 9: we can't anticipate with someone with no experience like Speaker
Speaker 9: Johnson has. We can't anticipate what kind of ideas he's
Speaker 9: going to float that ultimately will get shot down.
Speaker 3: Chair Mike Rogers the Armed Services Committee, Genie says, not
Speaker 3: a viable option, no path forward, don't try it.
Speaker 5: Is that how this ends?
Speaker 10: I think so, And you know, if we can just
Speaker 10: look at some of the cuts that Representative Carter was
Speaker 10: talking to you about the ten billion in IRS. He's right,
Speaker 10: we're spending more than the speed of light per minute.
Speaker 10: But how on God's green Earth is cutting the IRS
Speaker 10: going to help. We are hurting ourselves. That's how we
Speaker 10: get money is by holding people to account, to pay
Speaker 10: the IRS to cut that ten billion. This is the
Speaker 10: folly that we're dealing with. On the Republican side, they're
Speaker 10: talking about these cuts. If they're real, we will all
Speaker 10: lose money as a result. So you know, to your question,
Speaker 10: I hope it ends there, but you know, at this
Speaker 10: point we have a speaker who seems to be all
Speaker 10: over the map on messaging he's gonna have.
Speaker 3: To get I can imagine the conversation that we're going
Speaker 3: to be having one week from today, Rick and Jeanie
Speaker 3: will be with us.
Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 3: We're learning more by the hour here on what happened
Speaker 3: last night the air strike staged by the US and
Speaker 3: the UK against Houthi.
Speaker 5: Rebels in Yemen. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.
Speaker 3: We thank you for joining us on the Friday edition
Speaker 3: of Sound on these headlines. Broke late, yes, and we're
Speaker 3: just getting real details now on what happened with dozens
Speaker 3: of strikes here. And of course we turned to our
Speaker 3: friend Tony Capastio reporting from the Pentagon here at Bloomberg,
Speaker 3: and he's with us in studio now to set things
Speaker 3: up and we'll have some analysis on all of this
Speaker 3: from our panel. Knowing there are real political ramifications here.
Speaker 3: We just talked to Congress from Buddy Carter. He actually
Speaker 3: supports as a Republican what the President did last night.
Speaker 3: Progressives on the left do not, and some are even
Speaker 3: calling it, in the case of Rocanna, a violation of
Speaker 3: Article one, which is something that we'll get to. But Tony,
Speaker 3: it's great to see you.
Speaker 5: Thank you for being here, and thank you for invit this.
Speaker 3: The extent of these strikes apparently larger than we might
Speaker 3: have even thought at first.
Speaker 5: How would you kind of put this in context? Yeah,
Speaker 5: this eaked out last night.
Speaker 11: The US Central Command and the Pentagon really wouldn't talk
Speaker 11: about the extent of the strikes, but it was a
Speaker 11: US Air Force's Central Command that put out a release
Speaker 11: late last night.
Speaker 5: They put this in context.
Speaker 11: They said there were over sixty targets at sixteen locations
Speaker 11: and over one one hundred precision munitions. That's a lot
Speaker 11: against Syria, against Libya. In twenty eleven, the US launched
Speaker 11: like one hundred and twelve Tomahawks.
Speaker 5: Well, I just found out.
Speaker 11: A little while ago that of the over one hundred,
Speaker 11: about eighty more than eighty were US Navy Tomahawk missiles.
Speaker 11: They were fired from the US's Philippines, a cruiser, the
Speaker 11: Gravelly and the Mason, two destroyers, plus the USS Florida,
Speaker 11: a submarine that carries tomahawks. So this is a largely
Speaker 11: navy action and I think they're Choffman out the bit
Speaker 11: to talk a little bit more about their contribution about
Speaker 11: but it was as large operation.
Speaker 3: It sounds like it, and the extent that it was
Speaker 3: not just the US. This was in fact an international
Speaker 3: operation here the UK did most of the heavy lifting
Speaker 3: beyond the US from what we understand.
Speaker 8: Right, the armaments part of it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, So what does that tell you in terms
Speaker 3: of the decisions that they made on the types of
Speaker 3: weapons that were used.
Speaker 5: Stay as far away as.
Speaker 11: Possible, not only stay as far as the way as possible,
Speaker 11: but the tomahawks that were used, if I if it's
Speaker 11: the model, I think it is the most recent model.
Speaker 11: These things can loiter around and retarget. They just don't
Speaker 11: go they just go fly and go pop. They can
Speaker 11: fly around and retarget. So they hit storage and launch
Speaker 11: facilities for missiles, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. That
Speaker 11: tells me that the targets they wanted to be double cheer.
Speaker 11: There were no civilians around, and be very precise that
Speaker 11: their maps were going in matched what they were seeing
Speaker 11: on the ground. But it's an interesting million dollar missile
Speaker 11: that the US used last.
Speaker 5: Night, and we fired eighty of them, over eighty.
Speaker 11: Of the one hundred, which was a surprise to me.
Speaker 5: So we dropped over eighty million dollars just on cruise missiles.
Speaker 11: Always a bloomber you think of the money.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, that's that's quite a price tag, and
Speaker 3: at some point we need new ones, which is a
Speaker 3: whole other story. I realized this was orchestrated by a
Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense in.
Speaker 11: A hospital, bit I think it was approved by Okay,
Speaker 11: this was an interesting chronology I'm starting to pick up on.
Speaker 11: So this massive Russian like hooty attack was on Tuesday
Speaker 11: the ninth, Yes, well, I think that's what precipitated the strikes.
Speaker 11: But the next day the Pentagon put out a statement
Speaker 11: saying that among the activities of the Secretary, he was
Speaker 11: briefed by the Joint chiefs of Staff, Chairman Brown, General Brown,
Speaker 11: and then General Carilla, the Sentcom commander. So looking back,
Speaker 11: it took me off at Sentcom was tasked really quick
Speaker 11: to put up coming up with a plan and then
Speaker 11: brief it to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and
Speaker 11: then brief it to Austin and from there it goes
Speaker 11: to the National Security Council.
Speaker 5: Fascinating.
Speaker 3: We don't have any update on his condition or any
Speaker 3: sense of what he's getting out doing.
Speaker 11: We don't have any sense of that, but apparently he's
Speaker 11: comfortable and thankfully recovering.
Speaker 3: Huthi has promised before we struck a big response.
Speaker 5: We don't know anything about that.
Speaker 3: I presume did we render their military if we can
Speaker 3: even call it that, or are they useless now after
Speaker 3: these strikes.
Speaker 11: I don't think useless, because they may have underground facilities
Speaker 11: that the US wasn't able to strike. But I guarantee
Speaker 11: you right now that the sky's over Yemen or looking
Speaker 11: into Yemen now on P eight maritime surveillance and drones.
Speaker 11: They're looking there to see if there's any movement in
Speaker 11: those target areas and if there's any strikes from the hoodies.
Speaker 11: I'm pretty sure, like I'm pretty sure the Ravens will
Speaker 11: be in the super Bowl, that there will be strikes,
Speaker 11: restrikes by the US.
Speaker 5: So we're not quite done.
Speaker 11: We're not quite done. I think, but their eyes in
Speaker 11: the sky are monitoring what's going on Yemen radio that area. Yes,
Speaker 11: it's pretty easy to see if you've got our sensors.
Speaker 3: We love it when you cross the river from the
Speaker 3: Pentagon to come see us on Bloomberg sound On.
Speaker 5: Thank you, Tony Capastio. Great work, great reporting.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one eastern.
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: Or listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3: They say the momentum is behind Nicky Haley in New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: How about Iowa? The latest poll here.
Speaker 3: From Suffolk University draws the headlin on the Washington Post
Speaker 3: that she's been waiting for. Haley tops Ron de Santis
Speaker 3: for the first time in Iowa poll. This is the
Speaker 3: same group, by the way, that had her about twenty
Speaker 3: points behind Donald Trump in New Hampshire earlier this week,
Speaker 3: topping Rond de Santis.
Speaker 8: Here.
Speaker 3: Let's look at the numbers, and to be clear, Donald
Speaker 3: Trump is still far out in front as you might
Speaker 3: expect fifty four percent. These are likely caucus goers, not
Speaker 3: a huge pool, but an important one. Five hundred likely
Speaker 3: caucus goers give fifty four percent to Trump as their
Speaker 3: first choice, Haley second choice at twenty percent, Ron De
Speaker 3: Santis at thirteen. No point in mentioning the vacant single digits.
Speaker 3: Just last month, Rond de Santis was leading Nicky Haley
Speaker 3: in the state. An important move here, it's not just
Speaker 3: New Hampshire, as it turns out, leading Nikki Haley to
Speaker 3: ask the question openly today, Who's your daddy?
Speaker 7: Ron?
Speaker 3: A new ad up this morning in Iowa. Got this
Speaker 3: in my hands from Rick Davis, as a matter of fact,
Speaker 3: interspersing the crowd chant with bits of an old ad.
Speaker 5: This is years old, twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3: Ronda Santis talking to his baby about how great Donald
Speaker 3: Trump is.
Speaker 5: The title, Yes, who's your dad? Make America great Again?
Speaker 5: Build the Wall?
Speaker 3: Super pac ad one point six million dollar ad buy so,
Speaker 3: I suspect we'll see it when we get there, Rick
Speaker 3: Davis and Genie Shanze, No, Rick, is this good politics?
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, it's certainly entertaining politics for the rest of us.
Speaker 9: But look, I mean a lot of these caucus events
Speaker 9: have been canceled for the weekend because of the really
Speaker 9: extreme weather in Iowa. And what better way to try
Speaker 9: and keep campaigning by having really entertaining ads like Who's
Speaker 9: your Baby? You know, for caucus goers to talk to
Speaker 9: each other over all weekend long. So I think the
Speaker 9: timing was great and it's about time we had a
Speaker 9: little levity in this campaign.
Speaker 3: At the end of the spot, a message says America
Speaker 3: needs strength Genie, not a suck up.
Speaker 5: Is that the closing argument from Nicki Haley?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think it's a big one for her. I
Speaker 10: think it's also an argument about electability against Joe Biden
Speaker 10: is a big one she's been making. But you know, listen,
Speaker 10: her numbers have been moving in the right direction all
Speaker 10: this time. That's why she got the AFP on her side.
Speaker 10: They are well entrenched in Iowa. We're seeing the big
Speaker 10: ad money come out there. But again, you know, I
Speaker 10: hate to go back to Chris Christy, but when he
Speaker 10: said she might get smoked, you look at these polls
Speaker 10: and yes, she's moving in the right direction. But real
Speaker 10: clear politics in Iowa still has Trump up by an
Speaker 10: enormous amount, So she's got a lot of ground to go,
Speaker 10: but at least a strong second could move her into
Speaker 10: New Hampshire to make a go of this.
Speaker 5: What's your take on the pole here from Suffolk?
Speaker 3: Rick, By the way, we're going to talk to David
Speaker 3: Pellio logos coming up in about fifteen minutes from Suffolk.
Speaker 3: Who ran this pole? Do the numbers ring true as
Speaker 3: Ron De Santis coming in third here?
Speaker 12: Yeah?
Speaker 9: I think the directional signals of these numbers ring true.
Speaker 9: I mean, it's so hard to gauge how many caucus
Speaker 9: goers are going to go out and what the actual
Speaker 9: number is going to be. I'd say two things are
Speaker 9: really important. One is Haley comes in ahead of Ron
Speaker 9: De Santis, and this pole indicates that that is the
Speaker 9: direction it's headed in. And two that Donald Trump, to
Speaker 9: make this a campaign, gets below fifty percent. Now that's
Speaker 9: probably more a factor of turnout. If he has a
Speaker 9: smaller turnout than expected, that could depress his vote a
Speaker 9: little bit. But look, let's face it, he was gonna
Speaker 9: win Iowa beginning, middle and end. He's never been threatened
Speaker 9: in Iowa by any of these candidates. But Haley's campaign
Speaker 9: is all about New Hampshire. She needs an extra spurt
Speaker 9: of momentum to come into New Hampshire next week and
Speaker 9: a second place finish in Iowa will give her.
Speaker 3: That, all right, So maybe I should have asked that
Speaker 3: slightly differently, Genie. If Ron de Santis does come in third,
Speaker 3: is he done?
Speaker 10: I don't see where he goes from Iowa. Quite frankly, Joe,
Speaker 10: even if he won, it would be hard for him
Speaker 10: to go to New Hampshire and move to South Carolina.
Speaker 10: But if he's in third, I think the writing is
Speaker 10: clearly on the wall. He has spent millions of dollars
Speaker 10: and been going down in the polls. I think his
Speaker 10: campaign realizes that they've been saying that quietly, So you know,
Speaker 10: I think this is the end for Ron DeSantis, even
Speaker 10: in the best case scenario. I think for Nikki Haley,
Speaker 10: we got to look at those five counties that Rubio
Speaker 10: won in twenty sixteen. She's got to have his showing
Speaker 10: there because at this point Trump is threatening to win
Speaker 10: all ninety nine, and I think the one I watch
Speaker 10: is Sue see how he does there. But you know,
Speaker 10: if he was to get to Rick's point over fifty percent,
Speaker 10: if he was to win all ninety nine, I mean,
Speaker 10: this is a historic victory if it pans out that way.
Speaker 10: If he doesn't, by the way, gosh, it's hard to
Speaker 10: listen to these polls because they can be wrong a
Speaker 10: few percentage points, but wrong twenty or thirty points, and
Speaker 10: that's a problem for the industry.
Speaker 3: Well, you know who's in New Hampshire today, No one
Speaker 3: we've mentioned yet this hour Joe Mansion holding a series
Speaker 3: of public events in some of Rick Davis's favorite towns
Speaker 3: like Derry and of course Manchester, hosted by a group
Speaker 3: called Americans Together. This is a nonprofit founded by Joe
Speaker 3: Manchin's daughter seeking to raise one hundred million dollars to
Speaker 3: promote centrist candidates. He's pushing for open primaries, Rick and
Speaker 3: ranked choice voting. What else is he really up to here?
Speaker 3: Is he pushing for a third party run?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 9: Look, maybe he's auditioning for this no labels thing, you know,
Speaker 9: trying to keep relevant in the national eyes. I mean,
Speaker 9: obviously he's not been in the news as much as
Speaker 9: when he was, you know, holding up big pieces of
Speaker 9: legislation in the Senate. But yeah, I mean, I think
Speaker 9: you got to go where the eyeballs are, and right
Speaker 9: now that's Iowa New Hampshire. And you know, there's nothing
Speaker 9: for him to do in Iowa. But New Hampshire certainly
Speaker 9: ground zero for a group like No Labels, So we'll see.
Speaker 9: I mean, maybe he's threatened by the fact that Chris
Speaker 9: Christie seems to be the darling of New Labels today.
Speaker 9: And you know so, I mean, who knows what the
Speaker 9: politics of that group are. You got to get the
Speaker 9: third Way guys in here and have them talk about that.
Speaker 3: You know, we're going to do that because I suspect
Speaker 3: heads are exploding on the democratic side of the aisle
Speaker 3: every time Joe Manchin walks into a police like New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: God knows, we've seen that movie already.
Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano stay with us for some
Speaker 3: final thoughts on the weather. Here the DeSantis camp is
Speaker 3: praying for snow. Would it actually help the governor of Florida.
Speaker 3: We'll talk about it ahead, and as I mentioned, David
Speaker 3: Paleologos will join us alongside Kaylee Lions. Coming up at
Speaker 3: the top of the hour with more on the research
Speaker 3: from the ground in Iowa.
Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.
Speaker 4: On Bloomberg Radio. The tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com and.
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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
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Speaker 5: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound.
Speaker 3: On the Friday edition, we meet you at the threshold
Speaker 3: of the weekend, alongside Hayley Lines with new numbers to
Speaker 3: talk about here.
Speaker 5: It's not just New Hampshire.
Speaker 3: We're looking at momentum behind Nicki Haley in Iowa. Look
Speaker 3: no further than Suffolk University with the pole fifty four
Speaker 3: four percent, Donald Trump and Kaylee.
Speaker 5: It's important.
Speaker 3: This is a I guess, a relatively small sample, but
Speaker 3: it's a really important one because we're talking likely caucus goers,
Speaker 3: not just registered voters or adults or whatever. Trump fifty four,
Speaker 3: Hayley twenty, DeSantis thirteen. Do I mention Veavek at this point?
Speaker 3: Do we still do this?
Speaker 13: Well, he's still a lot of time there.
Speaker 5: And he's deeply invested in Iowa. He has six percent,
Speaker 5: which is not great for him here.
Speaker 14: And Chris Christy still was in this race at this point,
Speaker 14: but we know he's gone. I'm not sure he makes
Speaker 14: much of a difference in Iowa though.
Speaker 3: No, that's a fair point. I'm just wondering where David
Speaker 3: Paleologo has found Asa Hutchinson. What's going on here. I
Speaker 3: don't even see him on the shar He's the director
Speaker 3: of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. I'm sorry to
Speaker 3: be a wise guy, David. It's great to see you,
Speaker 3: and welcome back to Bloomberg. It's been too long. Look,
Speaker 3: I associate you probably because of geography and our time
Speaker 3: spent in Boston with New Hampshire politics this time of
Speaker 3: the cycle. But you're looking at Iowa with a very
Speaker 3: compelling story for Nicki Haley.
Speaker 5: What did you find?
Speaker 15: Yeah, and you know, the polling is a little bit
Speaker 15: different than others who have done the same polling.
Speaker 8: Most of the other posters.
Speaker 15: Have either DeSantis in second place or an even We
Speaker 15: found that Nikki Haley was at twenty percent, clearly above
Speaker 15: but within the margin of ra actually of DeSantis at
Speaker 15: thirteen percent.
Speaker 8: And when you remove.
Speaker 15: Christy from the because we did ask second choice votes,
Speaker 15: when you remove Christie, it's fifty to twenty two.
Speaker 8: She bumps up a.
Speaker 15: Couple points, but it's still a thirty plus point win.
Speaker 15: I mean, one thing we know is that Donald Trump
Speaker 15: is far far outside on the bell curve of the
Speaker 15: margin of era. He will win Iowa. The question is
Speaker 15: second place. We believe it's Haley's right now. Others say
Speaker 15: it might be tied, or DeSantis may prevail.
Speaker 14: Well, David, as Joe said, those individuals you were talking
Speaker 14: to surveying here are likely caucus goers. And I wonder
Speaker 14: which groups of caucus goers may become less likely to
Speaker 14: actually attend a caucus giving given the weather. Is it
Speaker 14: Trump supporters who based on polling, may assume he has
Speaker 14: this in the bag that might not actually turn out
Speaker 14: on Monday.
Speaker 15: Yeah, it's a great point. There are two schools of
Speaker 15: thought on that. One is the pole margin is so
Speaker 15: high that why bother in forty below weather, why bother
Speaker 15: going to the Caucaus Trump's going to win.
Speaker 8: It's a foregone conclusion.
Speaker 15: The pollsters probably are in the general ballpark of what
Speaker 15: the margin is. The other school of thought is the
Speaker 15: history of the Iowa caucuses. It's never been more than
Speaker 15: a twelve point margin for anyone in the Iowa caucuses.
Speaker 15: So what we're talking about is a historic win in Iowa,
Speaker 15: far far beyond what any Iowa caucus results does look like,
Speaker 15: and that these are people who have strong intensity for
Speaker 15: Trump and if it was one hundred degrees below, they
Speaker 15: would be out there for Trump. So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 15: There's no way that we can measure that. We do
Speaker 15: know from other polling that Trump voters have a higher
Speaker 15: intensity to vote and they have the less probability of
Speaker 15: changing their mind.
Speaker 8: That might work in.
Speaker 15: His favor or they people may assume he's going to
Speaker 15: win and it may work against them.
Speaker 3: With the polling you pulled in New Hampshire just last week,
Speaker 3: Trump forty six, Hailey twenty six, that twenty point spread
Speaker 3: got a lot of attention, David, and I wonder how
Speaker 3: what happens in Iowa will inform what takes place in
Speaker 3: New Hampshire.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's a good point. You know.
Speaker 15: A lot of people who were DeSantis supporters were yelling
Speaker 15: at me on social media for having a bird and
Speaker 15: I felt like saying, but I didn't want to engage them.
Speaker 15: You should be happy that I have Hailey second and
Speaker 15: him third, because if he exceeds that, you're going to
Speaker 15: look like a hero. If he's tied with her, or
Speaker 15: if he beats her. So because it's always about the perception,
Speaker 15: not the reality. It doesn't matter that someone's going to
Speaker 15: lose to Donald Trump by thirty points. What matters is
Speaker 15: what the expectation level is in it. I think the
Speaker 15: Suffold Pole was beginning because I got so much attention,
Speaker 15: was beginning to shape people's opinions that Haley would be
Speaker 15: finishing second instead of DeSantis. And that sets up for
Speaker 15: a good opportunity for DeSantis to dispel that, you know,
Speaker 15: even at our expense, to dispel that that narrative.
Speaker 14: Well, and that's why so many people are asking if DeSantis,
Speaker 14: having invested so much in Iowa, if he's not able
Speaker 14: to pull out number two, if he ultimately leaves the
Speaker 14: race after Iowa doesn't even make it to you Newham, sure,
Speaker 14: I know when you released the New Hampshire polling, you
Speaker 14: pointed out specifically in the release the boost that Chris
Speaker 14: Christy exiting the race would provide to Nikki Haley. What
Speaker 14: would happen if DeSantis left the race in the days
Speaker 14: between Iowa and that first in the Nation primary.
Speaker 15: So at DeSantis defection would slightly, slightly help Trump, but
Speaker 15: not by much. It's close to a fifty to fifty
Speaker 15: split in New Hampshire among second choice votes, so he
Speaker 15: really wouldn't fare into it. Trump might actually get a
Speaker 15: small bump if DeSantis were to get out. But Christy,
Speaker 15: on the other hand, forty nine percent of people who
Speaker 15: are Christie voters said that they would vote for Haley
Speaker 15: and only seven percent I believe it was like a
Speaker 15: seven to one margin, would vote for Trump. Now, some
Speaker 15: people wouldn't vote at all, some people would be undecided
Speaker 15: and so on, But that potentially takes a fifteen to
Speaker 15: twenty point race, which is what it is is right now,
Speaker 15: going into the race with Christy inn and changing that
Speaker 15: dynamic so that it's potentially, I don't know, a nine
Speaker 15: to eight to nine point lead for Trump in New
Speaker 15: Hampshire if you sort of interpolate the difference between the
Speaker 15: Christie votes rolling and rotating to Haley.
Speaker 3: We just saw Donald Trump announce a rally for next
Speaker 3: Saturday night in Manchester and this has been his mo.
Speaker 3: I think it's happened the last to New Hampshire primaries,
Speaker 3: typically on the eve at the Big Arena across the
Speaker 3: street on Elm Street, from where all the media will
Speaker 3: be located. It turns into a big sort of carnival atmosphere.
Speaker 3: And David, considering that so many voters in New Hampshire
Speaker 3: like to make up their mind at the last minute,
Speaker 3: I wonder what kind of impact that event will have
Speaker 3: this time.
Speaker 15: I would say it's going to have a marginal impact.
Speaker 15: It may be reported differently, but the undecided is really low.
Speaker 15: Ninety two percent of Trump voters say they're not going
Speaker 15: to change their mind. Overall, eighty percent of all voters
Speaker 15: say they're not going to change their mind. The undecided
Speaker 15: there's only four in New Hampshire. When you have high
Speaker 15: end decide, it's like twenty percent, fifteen to twenty percent.
Speaker 15: That's when you see major fluctuations and major shifts using
Speaker 15: momentum as an impetus to help one candidate or another candidate.
Speaker 15: I mean the question to me is, let's say assume
Speaker 15: that Christie's vote, many of Christie's votes rotate to Haley.
Speaker 15: That puts this at an eight nine percent margin. Ramaswami
Speaker 15: now becomes a key figure because if Ramaswami get out,
Speaker 15: that would pretty much seal it for Trump. Because Ramaswami,
Speaker 15: I don't think we had one voter who said that
Speaker 15: they were Ramaswami.
Speaker 8: Voters who would vote for Haley. It was it was
Speaker 8: mostly Trump.
Speaker 15: So if he were to get out before in New Hampshire,
Speaker 15: that would seal it for for Trump.
Speaker 8: I don't think he will.
Speaker 15: I think he's going to stay in it for a while,
Speaker 15: but he would you know, you know, the person that
Speaker 15: we were going to talk about in Iowa, he might
Speaker 15: be more of a player in New Hampshire than we think.
Speaker 5: Fascinating.
Speaker 14: That actually is really interesting, Joe, as we've been gaming
Speaker 14: out who who is actually going to be left in
Speaker 14: the field by the time we get to these.
Speaker 5: And whether if a fake might be looking to help
Speaker 5: Donald Trump.
Speaker 14: Well, we know that he has probably been the most
Speaker 14: vocal advocates as the greatest president of his life competing
Speaker 14: against He said he'd leave the ballot in Colorado if
Speaker 14: Donald Trump wasn't allowed to be on the ballot.
Speaker 13: Ultimately, we're still waiting for the Supreme Court to decide that. David.
Speaker 14: On that note, have you talked to have done any
Speaker 14: polling on the suggestion what if Trump is convicted of
Speaker 14: a felony? What how that would change votes? Because I
Speaker 14: feel like that is a dialogue we are starting to
Speaker 14: hear more about that. Some voters do change their minds
Speaker 14: depending on the outcome of criminal proceedings, even if those
Speaker 14: proceedings don't necessarily wrap up in time for these early races.
Speaker 15: Yeah, not on the national polling as of yet, because
Speaker 15: there are so many it's like convicted of what he's
Speaker 15: been charged with, so many different things. You know, you're
Speaker 15: you're you have to insert what specifically he would be
Speaker 15: convicted of. Some people may look more seriously at January
Speaker 15: sixth versus you know, a civil settlement based on financial documents,
Speaker 15: that kind of thing. I think that you know, one
Speaker 15: thing we do know is that when you know, every
Speaker 15: time he's been in court, he's used it as a
Speaker 15: fundraising opportunity. Uh, and he does mobilize supporters and get
Speaker 15: more donations the more legal MoES that he has. Ironically,
Speaker 15: so I think that's that's in play as well. I
Speaker 15: mean in New Hampshire, what we're looking at from a
Speaker 15: polling standpoint is how big.
Speaker 8: Will the democracy issue be?
Speaker 15: And I think that's where your question is is is
Speaker 15: coming from democracy is a winning issue for Nikki Haley
Speaker 15: between her voters and the Christie voters.
Speaker 8: Two thirds said.
Speaker 15: Among the people say democracy is the most important issue
Speaker 15: worked with number three in the state in the primary,
Speaker 15: Haley would have a huge lead over Trump on that issue,
Speaker 15: But on the top two issues immigration economy, donald Trump
Speaker 15: is in landslide material. I mean, he's winning three and
Speaker 15: a half to one among Ob Haley among immigration the
Speaker 15: immigration issue. I think that's why you're seeing so much
Speaker 15: centered around immigration in a state like New Hampshire, which
Speaker 15: is nowhere near a southern border, but that's the issue
Speaker 15: that people are talking about.
Speaker 3: It's been interesting to see social security and retirement age
Speaker 3: pop up as an issue, not only because our interview
Speaker 3: with Nikki Haley is being featured now on a Trump
Speaker 3: ad that's playing across the Boston and New Hampshire TV
Speaker 3: markets here, but it came up twice the other night
Speaker 3: by Donald Trump and by Ron DeSantis or voters talking
Speaker 3: about it.
Speaker 15: So we know demographically that New Hampshire is one of
Speaker 15: the older states in the country and disproportionately older voters
Speaker 15: tend to be more Republican voters and younger voters tend
Speaker 15: to be more Democratic voters. So I think this was
Speaker 15: a play to the demographics, not only not only the
Speaker 15: current polling, but also just the demographics that if older
Speaker 15: voters come out strong, that's a big issue for just
Speaker 15: that sliver of the population age wise where they feel
Speaker 15: like if they don't feel secure on such security and
Speaker 15: Haley is being attacked for that, that might be the
Speaker 15: thing that pushes them off Nikki Haley and potentially to
Speaker 15: Donald Trump.
Speaker 14: All Right, in our final moment here with you, David,
Speaker 14: as we look ahead to Monday, specifically, what will constitute
Speaker 14: a surprise for you? Knowing everyone's expecting Trump will win,
Speaker 14: where could the surprise be?
Speaker 8: So the surprise would be Trump doesn't win. I mean
Speaker 8: that will make.
Speaker 13: Us along well, that would be the ultimate surprise, surely.
Speaker 15: But short of that, I'm pretty confident he's he's going
Speaker 15: to prevail. The only question in my mind is does
Speaker 15: he break the record for the Iowa Caucases for the
Speaker 15: biggest landslide win in the Iowa caucauses with twelve points.
Speaker 15: That may happen. I mean, our polling says it will happen,
Speaker 15: but it may not too. It may you know, people,
Speaker 15: as you know the weather, there are so many conditions.
Speaker 15: But aside from breaking records and a landslide win for Trump,
Speaker 15: I think Ron DeSantis in a decisive win for second place.
Speaker 16: Over Nicky Paley. It would be the would be the
Speaker 16: next the next biggest surprise if they're tied owing it right,
Speaker 16: we believe that it's the second if the Santas won
Speaker 16: comfortably over Hailing, and that would be really bad.
Speaker 5: David Paleologos, come meet us in New Hampshire. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 14: We've talked a lot about one important vote happening in
Speaker 14: the coming days.
Speaker 13: We all know it. The Iowa caucuses are on.
Speaker 14: Monday, But Joe, there is another really important vote that
Speaker 14: is happening this weekend.
Speaker 13: It's in Taiwan.
Speaker 3: That's right far from Iowa and arguably, well, I don't know,
Speaker 3: the next most important election around the world. Yes, in
Speaker 3: this cycle that's going to see them happening in a lot.
Speaker 14: Of places, mostly because it could be crucial in determining
Speaker 14: not just the future trajectory of Taiwan's relationship with China,
Speaker 14: but also the US's relationship with China by extension, knowing
Speaker 14: how sensitive the Taiwan issue is at this moment when
Speaker 14: we're seeing such tense relations between the world's two largest economies.
Speaker 5: Yes, we thought we would this down a little bit
Speaker 5: before it happened.
Speaker 3: It's not on everyone's radar because we've been spending so
Speaker 3: much time talking about Iowa and New Hampshire debate season
Speaker 3: and all the rest of it, and we we thought
Speaker 3: we would reach to a real expert who has helped
Speaker 3: us out with the story in the past.
Speaker 14: Yeah, that expert being Craig Singleton. He's from the Foundation
Speaker 14: for the Defense of Democracies. So Craig, it's a three
Speaker 14: way race essentially, we're talking about here, walk us through
Speaker 14: what's at stake depending on who ultimately comes out on top.
Speaker 17: Absolutely right, Everyone here in the Beltway is focused on Iowa.
Speaker 17: But tomorrow more than nineteen million Taiwanese voters are going
Speaker 17: to head to the polls to pick their next president
Speaker 17: and their next parliament. And it goes out without saying
Speaker 17: I think as you sort of teed up there that
Speaker 17: this election carries some pretty serious significance. While domestic issues
Speaker 17: like inflation and you know, sort of cost of living
Speaker 17: are going to be critical in this year's election, far
Speaker 17: and away the paramount concern revolves around Taiwan's really ship
Speaker 17: with mainland China, and all told, you know, the election
Speaker 17: is really going to serve as a litmus test for
Speaker 17: the Chinese Communist Party's political warfare strategy, namely weather Beijing
Speaker 17: can achieve its you know, stated reunification goals through non
Speaker 17: kinetic means alone, and so the stakes really could not
Speaker 17: be higher.
Speaker 3: So we're basically talking about a menu of three candidates
Speaker 3: here in sort of three degrees of separation from China,
Speaker 3: which is close list a lot more closely aligned, I
Speaker 3: should say, with US policy right.
Speaker 17: Now, you know, I would say there's probably two outcomes
Speaker 17: to this election, neither of which suggests to me that
Speaker 17: US China relations are really going to improve meaningfully in
Speaker 17: twenty twenty four. The ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party,
Speaker 17: if they emerge victorious, and that is after China has portrayed,
Speaker 17: you know, this election as a vote between peace and war,
Speaker 17: it's hard to see Shojinping, the leader of China, accepting
Speaker 17: defeat gracefully. And we have to remember sensitivities are running
Speaker 17: prety high in Beijing right now as China confronts a
Speaker 17: host of domestic and international crises, and so she has
Speaker 17: made very clear recently that you know, he has a
Speaker 17: lot of urgency about reunification with Taiwan, perhaps sooner than later.
Speaker 17: And so I think what that suggests to me is
Speaker 17: that we could see a pretty serious Chinese overreaction if
Speaker 17: the ruling party does succeed, which a lot of polls
Speaker 17: tend to show, although polls can be wrong. You know,
Speaker 17: if the current ruling party is voted out of power,
Speaker 17: I think China will meet that reaction sort of with
Speaker 17: a little bit of a sigh of relief, but it
Speaker 17: could it's hardly clear that either of those opposition parties
Speaker 17: is going to do Beijing's bidding, and that could really
Speaker 17: lead I think China to become frustrated over time. I
Speaker 17: think what's more frightening about that scenario for the United
Speaker 17: States at least, though, is that, you know, China could
Speaker 17: sort of believe in the event that they can sort
Speaker 17: of get rid of the ruling party in Taiwan that
Speaker 17: they've hit upon this winning political warfare formula, one that
Speaker 17: expertly blends provocative military action and sort of disinformation and
Speaker 17: information warfare. And in that case, they would be pretty
Speaker 17: emboldened to begin deploying that same strategy in other places,
Speaker 17: including here in the United States, where they are really
Speaker 17: seeking to sort of meddle already in the upcoming twenty
Speaker 17: twenty four election in the United States.
Speaker 14: Well, that is, you know, a frightening proposition, I think
Speaker 14: to many as we talk about our own elections, but
Speaker 14: on the Taiwan election for just a moment longer, how
Speaker 14: much is there for Taiwanese voters a real consideration of
Speaker 14: independence from China? Is that something that they actually want?
Speaker 14: Are they likely to seek out the candidate who would
Speaker 14: most be supportive of that idea, or is that just
Speaker 14: you know, the worst case scenario for China that isn't
Speaker 14: necessarily something that they would like to see realized.
Speaker 17: I think long term voting trends suggest that most Taiwanese
Speaker 17: voters would prefer the status quo. They're not seeking to
Speaker 17: poke China and the eye, but they're also increasingly not
Speaker 17: interested in reunification and certainly not reunification on China's terms.
Speaker 17: Those long term trends are going to be just incredibly
Speaker 17: frustrating for China, and so this election is particularly important
Speaker 17: because it could signal whether we see this turn back
Speaker 17: towards perhaps more a slightly more conciliatory approach towards the mainland,
Speaker 17: or whether the ruling party in power, which has stood
Speaker 17: up for Taiwanese sovereignty, not independence, but sovereignty, has garnered
Speaker 17: to stay in power. And I do think that we're
Speaker 17: going to get a good sense about the average voter
Speaker 17: sentiment in Taiwan, but I do think that a lot
Speaker 17: of the talk about independence is largely sort of melodramatic.
Speaker 17: We haven't seen an indication that Taiwanese voters are pursuing independence,
Speaker 17: but what they do want is to have a sense
Speaker 17: of self determination, and they do want to be able
Speaker 17: to maintain their democratic system in democratic governance.
Speaker 3: We're spending time with Craig Singleton from the Founder for
Speaker 3: the Defense of Democracy's China program. Should the DPP then
Speaker 3: remain in power, Craig, what kind of a flex might
Speaker 3: we see from Beijing? Another blockade around the island, send
Speaker 3: a couple of missiles over What would it look like.
Speaker 17: Yeah, Like I said, it's hard to imagine chi Jinping
Speaker 17: accepting defeat gracefully. Here. I think an immediate sort of
Speaker 17: military reaction, probably through increased military exercises and provocative exercises,
Speaker 17: that that is a strong possibility. We have to remember
Speaker 17: that the Chinese leadership has made clear how important and
Speaker 17: monumental this election is. They have thrown the kitchen sink
Speaker 17: at Taiwan in the last few months in terms of disinformation,
Speaker 17: military coercion, economic coercion with new trade subsidies and trade
Speaker 17: restrictions on Taiwanese companies that are reliant on the mainland.
Speaker 17: And if all of that effort fall short of achieving
Speaker 17: their political objectives, I would imagine that there's going to
Speaker 17: be quite a bit of frustration. Whether that veers towards
Speaker 17: overreaction or miscalculation remains to be seen, but it's certainly
Speaker 17: a possibility.
Speaker 14: Well, especially keeping in mind that we learned just recently
Speaker 14: back in November, at that summit in San Francisco between
Speaker 14: Shijinping and President Biden, she essentially told him, to paraphrase,
Speaker 14: that they have every intention of Taiwan being reunified with
Speaker 14: China that they would prefer it didn't happen with force.
Speaker 14: How realistic do you think that is something that's going
Speaker 14: to happen in the near to medium term, say the
Speaker 14: next five years.
Speaker 17: You know, it's really difficult to assess. I think ultimately
Speaker 17: I believe she wants to reunify through all means short
Speaker 17: of war, but there are a lot of circumstances and
Speaker 17: conditions in which he might consider using kinetic force. I
Speaker 17: think at the end of the day, we're spending so
Speaker 17: much time trying to think through different countermoves of how
Speaker 17: that Chinese could react without actually just thinking and looking
Speaker 17: a little bit about what they're saying.
Speaker 7: Time.
Speaker 17: You brought up a great point. Chi Jinping has made clear.
Speaker 17: Reunification is inevitable, whether the Taiwanese people want it or not.
Speaker 17: There are real steps here that we can take in
Speaker 17: Washington to provide the Taiwanese with the defensive military equipment
Speaker 17: that they need to defend themselves, while also making clear
Speaker 17: to the China that they should probably accept the results
Speaker 17: of this outcome, and we should vocally be repeating I
Speaker 17: think these conversations are happening privately but not publicly that
Speaker 17: the United States doesn't support any unilateral attempts, whether they're
Speaker 17: from Taiwan or from China, to change the status quo.
Speaker 17: I think we should be beating that drum publicly as
Speaker 17: well as privately, not just to reassure the Chinese, but
Speaker 17: to make clear to the incoming Taiwanese administration that we're
Speaker 17: watching and I think that we're eager to help them
Speaker 17: with their defense, but we're also going to make sure
Speaker 17: that we stick through our long term commits in the region.
Speaker 5: Just got a minute left here, Craig.
Speaker 3: What does Beijing think of our elections that are about
Speaker 3: to begin here, the primary cycle and whether or not
Speaker 3: Donald Trump becomes the nominee.
Speaker 17: You know, last month, the intelligence community here released the
Speaker 17: classified assessment that showed that China meddled extensively and pervasively
Speaker 17: in our midterms in twenty twenty two, even getting involved
Speaker 17: in picking candidates for Congress and undermining those that were
Speaker 17: perceived as being anti China. I think what they're going
Speaker 17: to do in this coming term is more of the same.
Speaker 17: There's no indication that the Biden administration has called out
Speaker 17: Chinese election medlaying or threatened them with any sort of
Speaker 17: consequence if they were repeat that again. But I do
Speaker 17: think we're going to be very keen to show us
Speaker 17: democracy is dysfunctional, chaotic, and unreliable. Those are key themes
Speaker 17: and messages the Chinese are propagating around the world, and
Speaker 17: I think we can expect that sort of same information
Speaker 17: of warfare theme to be persistent throughout twenty twenty four.
Speaker 5: Greg, it's great to see you.
Speaker 3: Thanks for setting us up for this important election in Taiwan.
Speaker 3: We'd love to hear your thoughts once we get through it.
Speaker 3: He's seen your fellow at the Foundation for the Defensive
Speaker 3: Democracy's China program, and that's of course why we call
Speaker 3: on him, Kayley. He sure knows what he's talking about,
Speaker 3: and I'll be deeply curious to hear how this goes.
Speaker 3: The ramifications run a lot deeper than a lot of
Speaker 3: people might realize.
Speaker 1: Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg
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Speaker 5: The forecast for Caucus Day.
Speaker 3: It's snowing right now in Des Moines caucus day a
Speaker 3: high of four below zero. We've been obsessing over this
Speaker 3: because it really could change the ground game and even
Speaker 3: the results of this.
Speaker 5: Iowa caucus with record cold temps.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg News reporting today Kaylee that the DeSantis camp thinks
Speaker 3: it can out perform in bad weather because it's got
Speaker 3: the ground game.
Speaker 13: That's what they say.
Speaker 14: That they've spent so much time invested in the state
Speaker 14: of Iowa, visiting all ninety nine counties, signing up all.
Speaker 5: Their people that staying one hundred captains.
Speaker 13: Good to go.
Speaker 14: That's right, And of course DeSantis also is touting in
Speaker 14: Iowa the endorsement of the state's governor.
Speaker 5: His best friend, Kim Renold.
Speaker 14: That's correct, and that's actually someone that Bloomberg's very own
Speaker 14: Sealia Mosen spoke with on Bloomberg's Big Take DC podcast.
Speaker 14: Slea is actually already in Iowa where she's braving the elements.
Speaker 14: Before Joe and.
Speaker 5: I we have moved. We don't know if we can
Speaker 5: get there.
Speaker 13: Joe and I are gonna have to do the same soon.
Speaker 14: Seleia, tell us more about your conversation with the governor
Speaker 14: and maybe also how cold is it actually?
Speaker 18: I am stuck in Atlanta right now, I can tell
Speaker 18: you you're.
Speaker 13: Making our point.
Speaker 12: Yeah, people aren't getting there.
Speaker 13: I don't know who's going to vote.
Speaker 12: Let's see what happens and if Iowans can stomach it.
Speaker 12: But I'm telling you. I spoke to Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.
Speaker 18: It was her first interview for the year, just a
Speaker 18: couple of days before Iowan's kick off the election year
Speaker 18: for the country.
Speaker 12: She spoke to Big Take DC, and she.
Speaker 18: Had something really interesting to say about what would happen
Speaker 18: if Trump is the Republican nominee.
Speaker 5: Great, let's listen.
Speaker 19: I'm a Republican. Any one of the candidates that we
Speaker 19: have running will do a better job than the absentee
Speaker 19: president that we have serving. At this point, it is
Speaker 19: unbelievable what we see happening under this administration, and so,
Speaker 19: without hesitation.
Speaker 3: It's fascinating when you consider Seliah the Suffolk poll that
Speaker 3: we just talked to David Paleologos about showing Nikki Haley
Speaker 3: moving past Ron DeSantis in Iowa. It's not looking great
Speaker 3: for his momentum there, now, is it.
Speaker 12: It's not looking great for his momentum.
Speaker 18: The interesting thing that Reynolds did say to me during
Speaker 18: our interview. You have to download and listen, but the
Speaker 18: interview was interesting. She talked about how if Donald Trump
Speaker 18: gets less than fifty percent of Iowan's support, then it
Speaker 18: is game on for a number two candidate to work
Speaker 18: through the primaries New Hampshire, Carolina, South Carolina and then
Speaker 18: onto Super Tuesday and maybe break Trump fever.
Speaker 7: Wo.
Speaker 14: She think that Rondasantis was going to be that candidate
Speaker 14: no matter what, even if he didn't come in number two.
Speaker 14: To seas your destiny that DeSantis has taken.
Speaker 12: This all the way, she suggested. She was direct.
Speaker 18: She said DeSantis is going to win it. DeSantis can
Speaker 18: win it. He is right for the country, he's right
Speaker 18: for islands. She is full steam ahead, Uh, supporting Ronda
Speaker 18: Santis right now.
Speaker 3: Seleah, We've been taking this time each day recently to
Speaker 3: update the forecast. We go to Des Moines and listen.
Speaker 3: You know, it's like the local TV stations there. This
Speaker 3: is the top story KCCI channel eight. You're in Atlanta
Speaker 3: right now, just listen.
Speaker 20: I know we're just off two thirty five and this
Speaker 20: is a very Midwest thing to say that it's not
Speaker 20: that cold unless the wind is blowing well, the wind
Speaker 20: is blowing and it's pegging up that snow. It's making
Speaker 20: it cold. It's making it cold, and it's blowing that
Speaker 20: snow everywhere. It's causing drifts off the side, off the
Speaker 20: sides of buildings.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, this poor lady's on the side of
Speaker 3: the high It's drifting up the sides of buildings.
Speaker 5: Seleia, what's that going to mean for turn out?
Speaker 12: I mean they had expected.
Speaker 18: Iowan State Party local officials had talked about.
Speaker 12: Two hundred thousand Iowans.
Speaker 18: Participating in the caucuses, casting ballots, persuading each other, getting persuaded.
Speaker 12: It is really unclear who is going to make it out.
Speaker 18: Events are getting canceled left and right in Iowa right now,
Speaker 18: and flights clearly, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 5: The weekend is here. Yeah, you can't be with any
Speaker 5: voters and there's no media there to cover it.
Speaker 7: I love it.
Speaker 3: We'll cover the Georgia primary at some point. Just stay
Speaker 3: where you are, Soleya, Hey, we'll meet you there. We're
Speaker 3: trying to get there tomorrow. Maybe we can actually pull
Speaker 3: this thing off. We'll meet Seleya in Des Moines and
Speaker 3: check out the Big Take DC podcast. Subscribe after you
Speaker 3: do the Sound on Podcast. Thank you, Sileia.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, if you're a political junkie, you need them both.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Sound on Podcast.
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Speaker 5: Time at Bloomberg dot com.