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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business app.

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Speaker 1: Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast.

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Speaker 3: Happy Friday, Welcome to the threshold of the weekend Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Sound On on the radio, satellite, and YouTube. I'm Joe

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Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington, where we're counting down here right three

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Speaker 3: days to Iowa, one week to a partial government shutdown.

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Speaker 3: We'll get back to Iowa in a minute because we

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Speaker 3: have news from Capitol Hill. As the Speaker of the

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Speaker 3: House says he is standing by the deal, maybe we

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Speaker 3: will not be shutting down next week, although how we

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Speaker 3: get it all done in time is another matter. The

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Speaker 3: Speaker did talk to reporters earlier, remembering the reagreement as

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Speaker 3: we called it between the Speaker and Chuck Schumer on

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Speaker 3: top line spending levels. Without them, We're nowhere here, he

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Speaker 3: is from a short time ago.

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Speaker 4: Our topline agreement remains.

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Speaker 5: We are getting our next steps together, and we are

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Speaker 5: working toward a robust appropriations process. All rights simple as that.

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Speaker 5: Nothing to see here, move right along.

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Speaker 3: The issue, of course, is the few number of legislative

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Speaker 3: days left to make this happen, and it begs the question,

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Speaker 3: as we're hearing from the Senate, what about a CR?

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Speaker 3: Will there be a short term of funding solution here?

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Speaker 3: Because obviously, folks, as we've been hearing very loudly on

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Speaker 3: the Freedom Caucus to the Speaker's right flank, if I

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Speaker 3: can even put it that way, are not in favor

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Speaker 3: of a CR. Bob Good the share of the Freedom

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Speaker 3: Caucus saying don't fear the shutdown, and we've heard that

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Speaker 3: from him before. The question is how it all might

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Speaker 3: come together, remembering the lattered CR right this next Friday

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Speaker 3: is the first tranch, the first four spending bills February tecod.

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Speaker 3: The rest of the government would shut down, and that's

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Speaker 3: the big stuff like defense, which is why a lot

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Speaker 3: of people are looking at.

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Speaker 5: That is the real date. And this is where we

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Speaker 5: start our conversation.

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Speaker 3: With Congressman Buddy Carter, the Republican from Georgia, is with

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Speaker 3: us on this Friday, and it's good to see you. Congressman.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back to Bloomberg. What do you think is going

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Speaker 3: to happen here? Can we get is done in time?

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Speaker 3: Or does a CR seem inevitable.

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Speaker 6: At this point, it does seem like a CR is inevitable.

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Speaker 6: I don't see how we could get it done. Not

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Speaker 6: the way the Senate operates, not the way that not

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Speaker 6: the amount of time it's going to take for them

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Speaker 6: to get it through their body. I just don't see

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Speaker 6: that happening. And I suspect even though this speaker has

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Speaker 6: said that he does not want any more short term crs,

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Speaker 6: I don't see any way around it short of a

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Speaker 6: partial shutdown.

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Speaker 3: The idea of a CR for the rest of the

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Speaker 3: fiscal year has even been floated. Congressman, is that the

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Speaker 3: world we're in? Or would a little more time actually

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Speaker 3: help write these twelve spending bills?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think a little more time would help. You know,

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Speaker 6: we've been out for three weeks with Christmas and everything,

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Speaker 6: and then but the time, a little bit of time

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Speaker 6: would help. I do think we're closer than what it

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Speaker 6: may appear. We got the top line number.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 6: I know that there are some in our conference who

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Speaker 6: were not happy with that top line number, But I

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Speaker 6: don't know that they're not happy about the top line

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Speaker 6: number as much as they are about the side deals.

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Speaker 6: The side deals is what really bothers me that much,

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Speaker 6: and that takes that one point five to nine up

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Speaker 6: to almost one point eight, I mean, and it's the

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Speaker 6: side deals are what really bothers me. Now, having said that,

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Speaker 6: I will tell you that I think that the Speaker

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Speaker 6: was successful in getting some good immediate cuts in the budget,

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Speaker 6: real money cuts, ten billion dollars in IRS, six billion

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Speaker 6: dollars in in the COVID slush fund, clawing that back

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Speaker 6: sixteen billion dollars. And that's nothing to laugh at. That's

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Speaker 6: real money. So that was good. And we also got

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Speaker 6: some of the budget gimmicks that are just ridiculous, that

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Speaker 6: we got rid of some of those. So there was

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Speaker 6: some gain in this, and I think the Speaker did

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Speaker 6: the best he could do at this time with a

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Speaker 6: slim majority and only one leg of the three legged stool.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you consider yourself an ally of the speaker right

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Speaker 3: because he's hearing some pretty tough talk from the Freedom Caucus.

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Speaker 3: We're hearing motion to vacate again, or at least on

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Speaker 3: the table, the idea that if he does what Kevin

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Speaker 3: McCarthy did, he could be fired.

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Speaker 5: Where do you fall on this representative?

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Speaker 6: Well, first of all, I thought Kevin McCarthy got a

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Speaker 6: raw deal, and I was a big supporter of Kevin,

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Speaker 6: and I just think that was absolutely wrong. I am

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Speaker 6: a supporter of Mike Johnson's I want him to be successful.

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Speaker 6: I want him to help I want to help him

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Speaker 6: be successful, and I want to help us be successful. Look,

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Speaker 6: no one wants to cut spending as much as I do.

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Speaker 6: It is out of control. Let me tell you right now,

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Speaker 6: the federal government is taking in through revenue and everything

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Speaker 6: else and land deals, whatever it may be. Six point

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Speaker 6: four tree dollars. That's six point four treeion dollars that

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Speaker 6: we are spending every year. That's two hundred and four

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Speaker 6: thousand dollars per second. The speed of light is one

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Speaker 6: hundred and eighty six thousand miles per second. We are

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Speaker 6: spending money faster than the speed of light. That is unsustainable.

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Speaker 6: We've got to stop that. We've got to stop this

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Speaker 6: outrageous spending. I get it. And let's also keep in

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Speaker 6: mind doing those on the right, a lot of what

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Speaker 6: they are concerned about is the southern border, and we

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Speaker 6: need to get that southern border as part of this.

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Speaker 6: This is our leverage to get real reforms done at

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Speaker 6: the southern border.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'd like to hear from you on that a

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Speaker 3: little bit more, because we've spent weeks in a couple

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Speaker 3: of months here talking about a potential deal on the

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Speaker 3: border that would be tied to the supplemental funding request

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Speaker 3: for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. But we have been hearing

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Speaker 3: from more Republican House members that they want to see

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Speaker 3: border in this spending bill. And I think Chip Roy

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Speaker 3: in fact, is the one who's saying either close the

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Speaker 3: border or close the government.

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Speaker 5: Do you feel that.

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Speaker 6: Way, Well, you know, I'd rather see I have secured

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Speaker 6: the border and shut down the border than I would

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Speaker 6: see US shut down the government. Government shutdowns are just

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Speaker 6: not good. I've been through a number of them, and

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Speaker 6: and you just made the comment of a minute ago

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Speaker 6: that it's you know, how do you get into one? Well,

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Speaker 6: it's not so much how you get into one, is

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Speaker 6: how you get out of one. It's difficult to get

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Speaker 6: out of a shutdown, inexpensive. But at the same time,

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Speaker 6: a government shutdown is not the worst thing that could happen.

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Speaker 6: The worst thing that could happen would be for us

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Speaker 6: not to get anything out of that southern border, not

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Speaker 6: to get any kind of policy reforms, any kind of

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Speaker 6: in making sure we're enforcing the laws that are on

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Speaker 6: the books right now. That's one of the things that

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Speaker 6: needs to be done. That's why Mayor Orcus needs to go.

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Speaker 6: He needs to be impeached and because he's not enforcing

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Speaker 6: the laws that are on the book right now. But

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Speaker 6: we need that. We need that at the southern border.

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Speaker 6: We also need to stop this outrage is spending.

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Speaker 3: A lot of folks have suggested that the timing of

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Speaker 3: a Mijorca impeachment could needcap this whole idea of crafting

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Speaker 3: a deal on the border. It's a sentiment that even

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Speaker 3: Senator Jim Langfort has expressed the Chief Republican at the table,

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Speaker 3: you're on the border on the Budget committee, Rather, Congressman,

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Speaker 3: how much time do you actually need if these top

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Speaker 3: line spending levels are in place, can you get it

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Speaker 3: done in the next two three weeks?

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Speaker 6: We could, I'm very optimistic. And again a lot of

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Speaker 6: that depends on the Senate. The rules in the Senate

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Speaker 6: are different and it takes some time to get things

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Speaker 6: like this done. So but on the House side, we

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Speaker 6: could get it done rather quickly. Yes, But then again

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Speaker 6: keep in mind it's got to go through the Senate.

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Speaker 6: Not only that, but these are this is a lot

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Speaker 6: of work for staff to do. Staff's going to need

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Speaker 6: a couple of three days to get all these numbers

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Speaker 6: put together. So it's not like, oh, it passed the Senate,

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Speaker 6: it passed the House, then it goes to the President's desk. Well,

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Speaker 6: there's going to be a little interlude there as well.

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Speaker 3: Spending time with Congressman Buddy Carter, the Republican from Georgia,

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Speaker 3: not only on the Budget Committee, but a member of

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Speaker 3: the House that is in some cases outraged by President

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Speaker 3: Biden deciding to approve of air strikes, authorize air strikes

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Speaker 3: that were conducted last night against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Congressman,

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Speaker 3: We've heard from a couple of different quarters of the House.

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Speaker 3: It's not every day Rocanna and Mike Lee are agreeing

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Speaker 3: on things. Mike Lee says, the Constitution matters regardless of

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Speaker 3: party affiliation. Primila Jayapaul, who runs the Progressive Caucus in

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Speaker 3: the House, calling him out for a quote unacceptable violation

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Speaker 3: of the Constitution.

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Speaker 5: What's your thought on that decision by the Commander in chief?

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Speaker 5: Was it the right thing to do?

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Speaker 6: I think it was the right thing to do, yes,

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Speaker 6: and I think it's about time he did it. I mean,

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Speaker 6: let's face it, the hoodies had been using our troops,

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Speaker 6: our navy is target practice, and we can't allow that

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Speaker 6: to happen. We've got to be strong. We've got to

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Speaker 6: fight back and have backbone. There's no question about that

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Speaker 6: in my mind. Far as the constitutionality of it, you know,

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Speaker 6: I'll leave that for others to decide, but you know,

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Speaker 6: for us, just to let our troops sit out there,

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Speaker 6: let our navy sit out there and be the target

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Speaker 6: practice for these terrorists is unacceptable. We've got to fight back.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate your time today, Congressman. Thanks for joining us

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Speaker 3: from what looks like a warmer place than Iowa right now.

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Speaker 3: The gentleman from Georgia, we thank you, Republican Buddy.

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Speaker 5: Carter on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: As we assembled our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano

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Speaker 3: have been listening along here and want their take on this.

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Speaker 3: I guess we can call it news. The fact that

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Speaker 3: the Speaker is not backing out of a top line

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Speaker 3: spending deal.

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Speaker 5: Maybe we won't shut down.

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Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. What do

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Speaker 3: you think here, Rick, it's on again, off again with

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Speaker 3: this speaker, and he's got a right flank that's apparently

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Speaker 3: pretty angry with him. Does he have enough, buddy Carter's

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Speaker 3: to get something done here?

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Speaker 8: Yeah?

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Speaker 9: Look, I mean, I think he's not going to get

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Speaker 9: a majority of the Republican vote because it only takes

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Speaker 9: a couple of guys in the Freedom Caucus to hold

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Speaker 9: things up if it were just a Republican vote. But

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Speaker 9: the reality is this is going to be voted on

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Speaker 9: by the entire House of Representatives, and there are plenty

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Speaker 9: of Democratic votes to try and not close down government.

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Speaker 9: So he's got the win it his back. When it

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Speaker 9: comes to actually taking a vote, he's going to obviously

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Speaker 9: have to violate the one rule that McCarthy tried to

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Speaker 9: stick to and ultimately paid the price of his speakership

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Speaker 9: by violating it, which is, you know, having more than

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Speaker 9: just Republican votes to pass something. And kudos to him

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Speaker 9: for agreeing to something that frankly has already been agreed to,

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Speaker 9: you know, for the last three months. So you know,

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Speaker 9: let's get on with the passage of these appropriations bills

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Speaker 9: and let government function in a proper fashion.

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Speaker 3: So how you feel? And then, Genie, is it less

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Speaker 3: likely that we shut down? It's so difficult to pick

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Speaker 3: through the minutia every day and have a sense of

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Speaker 3: direction or momentum on these talks. We're celebrating the fact

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Speaker 3: that the Speaker is not bailing on a deal that's

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Speaker 3: already been made twice.

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Speaker 5: Does that keep the government open?

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Speaker 6: You know?

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Speaker 10: I think it is in everybody's interest, obviously to keep

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Speaker 10: the government open. I agree with Rick, there's probably enough

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Speaker 10: Democratic votes, certainly enough Democratic votes to keep it open.

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Speaker 10: But I think we should take a step back and

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Speaker 10: acknowledge this is by no means the way our government

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Speaker 10: should be working. This is not regular order. I mean,

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Speaker 10: what we're looking at here to your question to the

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Speaker 10: representative is either another short term in a long line

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Speaker 10: of crs or a longer term. We've had very little

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Speaker 10: information from the Speaker, the absence of leadership, the confusing

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Speaker 10: messaging is all over the place. So yes, we all hope.

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Speaker 10: I hope that he's able to stick with the deal

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Speaker 10: he made with Chuck Schumer keep this thing open for

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Speaker 10: a little while longer. But at what point are we

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Speaker 10: going to have a government that functions in the way

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Speaker 10: it should out of Congress. The reality is there is

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Speaker 10: no way that we should be living off of short

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Speaker 10: term CR and I'm not sure how long the news

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Speaker 10: speaker can keep this up. You know, I again hope

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Speaker 10: it stays open and we get this CR. But this

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Speaker 10: is not regular order, this is not good process, and

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Speaker 10: it is shameful to watch the messaging that's gone on.

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Speaker 3: Well, I can't imagine that this is real, Rick Davis.

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Speaker 3: But apparently the speaker did float the idea, at least

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Speaker 3: behind closed doors, of a year long CR, something I

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Speaker 3: mentioned to Congressman Buddy Carter.

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Speaker 8: There.

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Speaker 3: Republicans on the Armed Services Committee freaked out when they

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Speaker 3: heard about this because that would amount to a defense

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Speaker 3: spending cut. There's no real world where that happens.

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Speaker 8: Is there.

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Speaker 7: Now?

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Speaker 9: Look, I mean, this is a rookie speaker, right, and

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Speaker 9: you know, I don't know if he actually understands all

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Speaker 9: the ramifications of the things that he kicks out every day.

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Speaker 9: People on the Armed Services Committee, a both the House

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Speaker 9: and the Senate, the hask and the task would flip

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Speaker 9: out if they thought that Republicans were going to be

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Speaker 9: party to a significant in defense spending in the middle

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Speaker 9: of the crisises that we have going on all around

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Speaker 9: the world. I think that's a complete non starter. But

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Speaker 9: we can't anticipate with someone with no experience like Speaker

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Speaker 9: Johnson has. We can't anticipate what kind of ideas he's

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Speaker 9: going to float that ultimately will get shot down.

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Speaker 3: Chair Mike Rogers the Armed Services Committee, Genie says, not

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Speaker 3: a viable option, no path forward, don't try it.

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Speaker 5: Is that how this ends?

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Speaker 10: I think so, And you know, if we can just

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Speaker 10: look at some of the cuts that Representative Carter was

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Speaker 10: talking to you about the ten billion in IRS. He's right,

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Speaker 10: we're spending more than the speed of light per minute.

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Speaker 10: But how on God's green Earth is cutting the IRS

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Speaker 10: going to help. We are hurting ourselves. That's how we

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Speaker 10: get money is by holding people to account, to pay

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Speaker 10: the IRS to cut that ten billion. This is the

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Speaker 10: folly that we're dealing with. On the Republican side, they're

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Speaker 10: talking about these cuts. If they're real, we will all

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Speaker 10: lose money as a result. So you know, to your question,

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Speaker 10: I hope it ends there, but you know, at this

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Speaker 10: point we have a speaker who seems to be all

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Speaker 10: over the map on messaging he's gonna have.

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Speaker 3: To get I can imagine the conversation that we're going

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Speaker 3: to be having one week from today, Rick and Jeanie

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Speaker 3: will be with us.

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Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 4: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 7: And the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: We're learning more by the hour here on what happened

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Speaker 3: last night the air strike staged by the US and

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Speaker 3: the UK against Houthi.

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Speaker 5: Rebels in Yemen. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.

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Speaker 3: We thank you for joining us on the Friday edition

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Speaker 3: of Sound on these headlines. Broke late, yes, and we're

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Speaker 3: just getting real details now on what happened with dozens

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Speaker 3: of strikes here. And of course we turned to our

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Speaker 3: friend Tony Capastio reporting from the Pentagon here at Bloomberg,

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Speaker 3: and he's with us in studio now to set things

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Speaker 3: up and we'll have some analysis on all of this

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Speaker 3: from our panel. Knowing there are real political ramifications here.

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Speaker 3: We just talked to Congress from Buddy Carter. He actually

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Speaker 3: supports as a Republican what the President did last night.

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Speaker 3: Progressives on the left do not, and some are even

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Speaker 3: calling it, in the case of Rocanna, a violation of

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Speaker 3: Article one, which is something that we'll get to. But Tony,

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Speaker 3: it's great to see you.

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Speaker 5: Thank you for being here, and thank you for invit this.

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Speaker 3: The extent of these strikes apparently larger than we might

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Speaker 3: have even thought at first.

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Speaker 5: How would you kind of put this in context? Yeah,

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Speaker 5: this eaked out last night.

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Speaker 11: The US Central Command and the Pentagon really wouldn't talk

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Speaker 11: about the extent of the strikes, but it was a

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Speaker 11: US Air Force's Central Command that put out a release

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Speaker 11: late last night.

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Speaker 5: They put this in context.

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Speaker 11: They said there were over sixty targets at sixteen locations

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Speaker 11: and over one one hundred precision munitions. That's a lot

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Speaker 11: against Syria, against Libya. In twenty eleven, the US launched

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Speaker 11: like one hundred and twelve Tomahawks.

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Speaker 5: Well, I just found out.

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Speaker 11: A little while ago that of the over one hundred,

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Speaker 11: about eighty more than eighty were US Navy Tomahawk missiles.

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Speaker 11: They were fired from the US's Philippines, a cruiser, the

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Speaker 11: Gravelly and the Mason, two destroyers, plus the USS Florida,

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Speaker 11: a submarine that carries tomahawks. So this is a largely

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Speaker 11: navy action and I think they're Choffman out the bit

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Speaker 11: to talk a little bit more about their contribution about

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Speaker 11: but it was as large operation.

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Speaker 3: It sounds like it, and the extent that it was

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Speaker 3: not just the US. This was in fact an international

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Speaker 3: operation here the UK did most of the heavy lifting

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Speaker 3: beyond the US from what we understand.

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Speaker 8: Right, the armaments part of it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, So what does that tell you in terms

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Speaker 3: of the decisions that they made on the types of

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Speaker 3: weapons that were used.

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Speaker 5: Stay as far away as.

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Speaker 11: Possible, not only stay as far as the way as possible,

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Speaker 11: but the tomahawks that were used, if I if it's

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Speaker 11: the model, I think it is the most recent model.

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Speaker 11: These things can loiter around and retarget. They just don't

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Speaker 11: go they just go fly and go pop. They can

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Speaker 11: fly around and retarget. So they hit storage and launch

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Speaker 11: facilities for missiles, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. That

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Speaker 11: tells me that the targets they wanted to be double cheer.

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Speaker 11: There were no civilians around, and be very precise that

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Speaker 11: their maps were going in matched what they were seeing

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Speaker 11: on the ground. But it's an interesting million dollar missile

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Speaker 11: that the US used last.

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Speaker 5: Night, and we fired eighty of them, over eighty.

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Speaker 11: Of the one hundred, which was a surprise to me.

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Speaker 5: So we dropped over eighty million dollars just on cruise missiles.

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Speaker 11: Always a bloomber you think of the money.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, that's that's quite a price tag, and

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Speaker 3: at some point we need new ones, which is a

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Speaker 3: whole other story. I realized this was orchestrated by a

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Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense in.

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Speaker 11: A hospital, bit I think it was approved by Okay,

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Speaker 11: this was an interesting chronology I'm starting to pick up on.

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Speaker 11: So this massive Russian like hooty attack was on Tuesday

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Speaker 11: the ninth, Yes, well, I think that's what precipitated the strikes.

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Speaker 11: But the next day the Pentagon put out a statement

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Speaker 11: saying that among the activities of the Secretary, he was

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Speaker 11: briefed by the Joint chiefs of Staff, Chairman Brown, General Brown,

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Speaker 11: and then General Carilla, the Sentcom commander. So looking back,

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Speaker 11: it took me off at Sentcom was tasked really quick

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Speaker 11: to put up coming up with a plan and then

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Speaker 11: brief it to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and

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Speaker 11: then brief it to Austin and from there it goes

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Speaker 11: to the National Security Council.

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Speaker 5: Fascinating.

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Speaker 3: We don't have any update on his condition or any

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Speaker 3: sense of what he's getting out doing.

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Speaker 11: We don't have any sense of that, but apparently he's

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Speaker 11: comfortable and thankfully recovering.

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Speaker 3: Huthi has promised before we struck a big response.

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Speaker 5: We don't know anything about that.

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Speaker 3: I presume did we render their military if we can

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Speaker 3: even call it that, or are they useless now after

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Speaker 3: these strikes.

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Speaker 11: I don't think useless, because they may have underground facilities

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Speaker 11: that the US wasn't able to strike. But I guarantee

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Speaker 11: you right now that the sky's over Yemen or looking

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Speaker 11: into Yemen now on P eight maritime surveillance and drones.

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Speaker 11: They're looking there to see if there's any movement in

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Speaker 11: those target areas and if there's any strikes from the hoodies.

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Speaker 11: I'm pretty sure, like I'm pretty sure the Ravens will

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Speaker 11: be in the super Bowl, that there will be strikes,

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Speaker 11: restrikes by the US.

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Speaker 5: So we're not quite done.

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Speaker 11: We're not quite done. I think, but their eyes in

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Speaker 11: the sky are monitoring what's going on Yemen radio that area. Yes,

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Speaker 11: it's pretty easy to see if you've got our sensors.

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Speaker 3: We love it when you cross the river from the

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Speaker 3: Pentagon to come see us on Bloomberg sound On.

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Speaker 5: Thank you, Tony Capastio. Great work, great reporting.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business App.

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Speaker 1: Or listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 3: They say the momentum is behind Nicky Haley in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 5: How about Iowa? The latest poll here.

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Speaker 3: From Suffolk University draws the headlin on the Washington Post

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Speaker 3: that she's been waiting for. Haley tops Ron de Santis

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Speaker 3: for the first time in Iowa poll. This is the

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Speaker 3: same group, by the way, that had her about twenty

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Speaker 3: points behind Donald Trump in New Hampshire earlier this week,

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Speaker 3: topping Rond de Santis.

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Speaker 8: Here.

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Speaker 3: Let's look at the numbers, and to be clear, Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump is still far out in front as you might

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Speaker 3: expect fifty four percent. These are likely caucus goers, not

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Speaker 3: a huge pool, but an important one. Five hundred likely

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Speaker 3: caucus goers give fifty four percent to Trump as their

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Speaker 3: first choice, Haley second choice at twenty percent, Ron De

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Speaker 3: Santis at thirteen. No point in mentioning the vacant single digits.

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Speaker 3: Just last month, Rond de Santis was leading Nicky Haley

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Speaker 3: in the state. An important move here, it's not just

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Speaker 3: New Hampshire, as it turns out, leading Nikki Haley to

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Speaker 3: ask the question openly today, Who's your daddy?

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Speaker 7: Ron?

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Speaker 3: A new ad up this morning in Iowa. Got this

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Speaker 3: in my hands from Rick Davis, as a matter of fact,

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Speaker 3: interspersing the crowd chant with bits of an old ad.

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Speaker 5: This is years old, twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 3: Ronda Santis talking to his baby about how great Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump is.

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Speaker 5: The title, Yes, who's your dad? Make America great Again?

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Speaker 5: Build the Wall?

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Speaker 3: Super pac ad one point six million dollar ad buy so,

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Speaker 3: I suspect we'll see it when we get there, Rick

442
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 3: Davis and Genie Shanze, No, Rick, is this good politics?

443
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, it's certainly entertaining politics for the rest of us.

444
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 9: But look, I mean a lot of these caucus events

445
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 9: have been canceled for the weekend because of the really

446
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 9: extreme weather in Iowa. And what better way to try

447
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 9: and keep campaigning by having really entertaining ads like Who's

448
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 9: your Baby? You know, for caucus goers to talk to

449
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,919
Speaker 9: each other over all weekend long. So I think the

450
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 9: timing was great and it's about time we had a

451
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 9: little levity in this campaign.

452
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 3: At the end of the spot, a message says America

453
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: needs strength Genie, not a suck up.

454
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 5: Is that the closing argument from Nicki Haley?

455
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:27,919
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think it's a big one for her. I

456
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,679
Speaker 10: think it's also an argument about electability against Joe Biden

457
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 10: is a big one she's been making. But you know, listen,

458
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 10: her numbers have been moving in the right direction all

459
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 10: this time. That's why she got the AFP on her side.

460
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 10: They are well entrenched in Iowa. We're seeing the big

461
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 10: ad money come out there. But again, you know, I

462
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 10: hate to go back to Chris Christy, but when he

463
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 10: said she might get smoked, you look at these polls

464
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 10: and yes, she's moving in the right direction. But real

465
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 10: clear politics in Iowa still has Trump up by an

466
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 10: enormous amount, So she's got a lot of ground to go,

467
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 10: but at least a strong second could move her into

468
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:07,360
Speaker 10: New Hampshire to make a go of this.

469
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 5: What's your take on the pole here from Suffolk?

470
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 3: Rick, By the way, we're going to talk to David

471
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 3: Pellio logos coming up in about fifteen minutes from Suffolk.

472
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 3: Who ran this pole? Do the numbers ring true as

473
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 3: Ron De Santis coming in third here?

474
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 12: Yeah?

475
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 9: I think the directional signals of these numbers ring true.

476
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 9: I mean, it's so hard to gauge how many caucus

477
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 9: goers are going to go out and what the actual

478
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 9: number is going to be. I'd say two things are

479
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 9: really important. One is Haley comes in ahead of Ron

480
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 9: De Santis, and this pole indicates that that is the

481
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 9: direction it's headed in. And two that Donald Trump, to

482
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 9: make this a campaign, gets below fifty percent. Now that's

483
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 9: probably more a factor of turnout. If he has a

484
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 9: smaller turnout than expected, that could depress his vote a

485
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 9: little bit. But look, let's face it, he was gonna

486
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 9: win Iowa beginning, middle and end. He's never been threatened

487
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 9: in Iowa by any of these candidates. But Haley's campaign

488
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 9: is all about New Hampshire. She needs an extra spurt

489
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 9: of momentum to come into New Hampshire next week and

490
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 9: a second place finish in Iowa will give her.

491
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 3: That, all right, So maybe I should have asked that

492
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 3: slightly differently, Genie. If Ron de Santis does come in third,

493
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 3: is he done?

494
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 10: I don't see where he goes from Iowa. Quite frankly, Joe,

495
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 10: even if he won, it would be hard for him

496
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 10: to go to New Hampshire and move to South Carolina.

497
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 10: But if he's in third, I think the writing is

498
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 10: clearly on the wall. He has spent millions of dollars

499
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 10: and been going down in the polls. I think his

500
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:46,479
Speaker 10: campaign realizes that they've been saying that quietly, So you know,

501
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 10: I think this is the end for Ron DeSantis, even

502
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 10: in the best case scenario. I think for Nikki Haley,

503
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 10: we got to look at those five counties that Rubio

504
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 10: won in twenty sixteen. She's got to have his showing

505
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 10: there because at this point Trump is threatening to win

506
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 10: all ninety nine, and I think the one I watch

507
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 10: is Sue see how he does there. But you know,

508
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 10: if he was to get to Rick's point over fifty percent,

509
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 10: if he was to win all ninety nine, I mean,

510
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 10: this is a historic victory if it pans out that way.

511
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 10: If he doesn't, by the way, gosh, it's hard to

512
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 10: listen to these polls because they can be wrong a

513
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 10: few percentage points, but wrong twenty or thirty points, and

514
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 10: that's a problem for the industry.

515
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 3: Well, you know who's in New Hampshire today, No one

516
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 3: we've mentioned yet this hour Joe Mansion holding a series

517
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 3: of public events in some of Rick Davis's favorite towns

518
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 3: like Derry and of course Manchester, hosted by a group

519
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 3: called Americans Together. This is a nonprofit founded by Joe

520
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 3: Manchin's daughter seeking to raise one hundred million dollars to

521
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 3: promote centrist candidates. He's pushing for open primaries, Rick and

522
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:59,120
Speaker 3: ranked choice voting. What else is he really up to here?

523
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 3: Is he pushing for a third party run?

524
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 5: Yeah?

525
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 9: Look, maybe he's auditioning for this no labels thing, you know,

526
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 9: trying to keep relevant in the national eyes. I mean,

527
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,239
Speaker 9: obviously he's not been in the news as much as

528
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 9: when he was, you know, holding up big pieces of

529
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 9: legislation in the Senate. But yeah, I mean, I think

530
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 9: you got to go where the eyeballs are, and right

531
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 9: now that's Iowa New Hampshire. And you know, there's nothing

532
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 9: for him to do in Iowa. But New Hampshire certainly

533
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 9: ground zero for a group like No Labels, So we'll see.

534
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 9: I mean, maybe he's threatened by the fact that Chris

535
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 9: Christie seems to be the darling of New Labels today.

536
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 9: And you know so, I mean, who knows what the

537
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 9: politics of that group are. You got to get the

538
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 9: third Way guys in here and have them talk about that.

539
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 3: You know, we're going to do that because I suspect

540
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 3: heads are exploding on the democratic side of the aisle

541
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 3: every time Joe Manchin walks into a police like New Hampshire.

542
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 5: God knows, we've seen that movie already.

543
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano stay with us for some

544
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:04,199
Speaker 3: final thoughts on the weather. Here the DeSantis camp is

545
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 3: praying for snow. Would it actually help the governor of Florida.

546
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 3: We'll talk about it ahead, and as I mentioned, David

547
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 3: Paleologos will join us alongside Kaylee Lions. Coming up at

548
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 3: the top of the hour with more on the research

549
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 3: from the ground in Iowa.

550
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

551
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

552
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.

553
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 4: On Bloomberg Radio. The tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com and.

554
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 7: The Bloomberg Business App.

555
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

556
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

557
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 5: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound.

558
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 3: On the Friday edition, we meet you at the threshold

559
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 3: of the weekend, alongside Hayley Lines with new numbers to

560
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 3: talk about here.

561
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 5: It's not just New Hampshire.

562
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 3: We're looking at momentum behind Nicki Haley in Iowa. Look

563
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 3: no further than Suffolk University with the pole fifty four

564
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 3: four percent, Donald Trump and Kaylee.

565
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 5: It's important.

566
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 3: This is a I guess, a relatively small sample, but

567
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 3: it's a really important one because we're talking likely caucus goers,

568
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 3: not just registered voters or adults or whatever. Trump fifty four,

569
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 3: Hayley twenty, DeSantis thirteen. Do I mention Veavek at this point?

570
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 3: Do we still do this?

571
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 13: Well, he's still a lot of time there.

572
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 5: And he's deeply invested in Iowa. He has six percent,

573
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 5: which is not great for him here.

574
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 14: And Chris Christy still was in this race at this point,

575
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 14: but we know he's gone. I'm not sure he makes

576
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 14: much of a difference in Iowa though.

577
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 3: No, that's a fair point. I'm just wondering where David

578
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 3: Paleologo has found Asa Hutchinson. What's going on here. I

579
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 3: don't even see him on the shar He's the director

580
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 3: of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. I'm sorry to

581
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 3: be a wise guy, David. It's great to see you,

582
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 3: and welcome back to Bloomberg. It's been too long. Look,

583
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 3: I associate you probably because of geography and our time

584
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 3: spent in Boston with New Hampshire politics this time of

585
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 3: the cycle. But you're looking at Iowa with a very

586
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 3: compelling story for Nicki Haley.

587
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 5: What did you find?

588
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 15: Yeah, and you know, the polling is a little bit

589
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 15: different than others who have done the same polling.

590
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 8: Most of the other posters.

591
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 15: Have either DeSantis in second place or an even We

592
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 15: found that Nikki Haley was at twenty percent, clearly above

593
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 15: but within the margin of ra actually of DeSantis at

594
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 15: thirteen percent.

595
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 8: And when you remove.

596
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 15: Christy from the because we did ask second choice votes,

597
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 15: when you remove Christie, it's fifty to twenty two.

598
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 8: She bumps up a.

599
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 15: Couple points, but it's still a thirty plus point win.

600
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 15: I mean, one thing we know is that Donald Trump

601
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 15: is far far outside on the bell curve of the

602
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 15: margin of era. He will win Iowa. The question is

603
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 15: second place. We believe it's Haley's right now. Others say

604
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 15: it might be tied, or DeSantis may prevail.

605
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 14: Well, David, as Joe said, those individuals you were talking

606
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 14: to surveying here are likely caucus goers. And I wonder

607
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 14: which groups of caucus goers may become less likely to

608
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 14: actually attend a caucus giving given the weather. Is it

609
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 14: Trump supporters who based on polling, may assume he has

610
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 14: this in the bag that might not actually turn out

611
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 14: on Monday.

612
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 15: Yeah, it's a great point. There are two schools of

613
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 15: thought on that. One is the pole margin is so

614
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 15: high that why bother in forty below weather, why bother

615
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 15: going to the Caucaus Trump's going to win.

616
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 8: It's a foregone conclusion.

617
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 15: The pollsters probably are in the general ballpark of what

618
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 15: the margin is. The other school of thought is the

619
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 15: history of the Iowa caucuses. It's never been more than

620
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 15: a twelve point margin for anyone in the Iowa caucuses.

621
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 15: So what we're talking about is a historic win in Iowa,

622
00:30:55,800 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 15: far far beyond what any Iowa caucus results does look like,

623
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 15: and that these are people who have strong intensity for

624
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 15: Trump and if it was one hundred degrees below, they

625
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 15: would be out there for Trump. So we'll see what happens.

626
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 15: There's no way that we can measure that. We do

627
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 15: know from other polling that Trump voters have a higher

628
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 15: intensity to vote and they have the less probability of

629
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 15: changing their mind.

630
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 8: That might work in.

631
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 15: His favor or they people may assume he's going to

632
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 15: win and it may work against them.

633
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 3: With the polling you pulled in New Hampshire just last week,

634
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 3: Trump forty six, Hailey twenty six, that twenty point spread

635
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 3: got a lot of attention, David, and I wonder how

636
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 3: what happens in Iowa will inform what takes place in

637
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 3: New Hampshire.

638
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's a good point. You know.

639
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 15: A lot of people who were DeSantis supporters were yelling

640
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 15: at me on social media for having a bird and

641
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 15: I felt like saying, but I didn't want to engage them.

642
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 15: You should be happy that I have Hailey second and

643
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 15: him third, because if he exceeds that, you're going to

644
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 15: look like a hero. If he's tied with her, or

645
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 15: if he beats her. So because it's always about the perception,

646
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 15: not the reality. It doesn't matter that someone's going to

647
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 15: lose to Donald Trump by thirty points. What matters is

648
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 15: what the expectation level is in it. I think the

649
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 15: Suffold Pole was beginning because I got so much attention,

650
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 15: was beginning to shape people's opinions that Haley would be

651
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 15: finishing second instead of DeSantis. And that sets up for

652
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 15: a good opportunity for DeSantis to dispel that, you know,

653
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 15: even at our expense, to dispel that that narrative.

654
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 14: Well, and that's why so many people are asking if DeSantis,

655
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 14: having invested so much in Iowa, if he's not able

656
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 14: to pull out number two, if he ultimately leaves the

657
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 14: race after Iowa doesn't even make it to you Newham, sure,

658
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 14: I know when you released the New Hampshire polling, you

659
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 14: pointed out specifically in the release the boost that Chris

660
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 14: Christy exiting the race would provide to Nikki Haley. What

661
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 14: would happen if DeSantis left the race in the days

662
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 14: between Iowa and that first in the Nation primary.

663
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 15: So at DeSantis defection would slightly, slightly help Trump, but

664
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 15: not by much. It's close to a fifty to fifty

665
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 15: split in New Hampshire among second choice votes, so he

666
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 15: really wouldn't fare into it. Trump might actually get a

667
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 15: small bump if DeSantis were to get out. But Christy,

668
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 15: on the other hand, forty nine percent of people who

669
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 15: are Christie voters said that they would vote for Haley

670
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 15: and only seven percent I believe it was like a

671
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 15: seven to one margin, would vote for Trump. Now, some

672
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 15: people wouldn't vote at all, some people would be undecided

673
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 15: and so on, But that potentially takes a fifteen to

674
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 15: twenty point race, which is what it is is right now,

675
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 15: going into the race with Christy inn and changing that

676
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,919
Speaker 15: dynamic so that it's potentially, I don't know, a nine

677
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 15: to eight to nine point lead for Trump in New

678
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 15: Hampshire if you sort of interpolate the difference between the

679
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,240
Speaker 15: Christie votes rolling and rotating to Haley.

680
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 3: We just saw Donald Trump announce a rally for next

681
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 3: Saturday night in Manchester and this has been his mo.

682
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 3: I think it's happened the last to New Hampshire primaries,

683
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 3: typically on the eve at the Big Arena across the

684
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 3: street on Elm Street, from where all the media will

685
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 3: be located. It turns into a big sort of carnival atmosphere.

686
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 3: And David, considering that so many voters in New Hampshire

687
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 3: like to make up their mind at the last minute,

688
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 3: I wonder what kind of impact that event will have

689
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 3: this time.

690
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 15: I would say it's going to have a marginal impact.

691
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,919
Speaker 15: It may be reported differently, but the undecided is really low.

692
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 15: Ninety two percent of Trump voters say they're not going

693
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:06,240
Speaker 15: to change their mind. Overall, eighty percent of all voters

694
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 15: say they're not going to change their mind. The undecided

695
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 15: there's only four in New Hampshire. When you have high

696
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 15: end decide, it's like twenty percent, fifteen to twenty percent.

697
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 15: That's when you see major fluctuations and major shifts using

698
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 15: momentum as an impetus to help one candidate or another candidate.

699
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 15: I mean the question to me is, let's say assume

700
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 15: that Christie's vote, many of Christie's votes rotate to Haley.

701
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 15: That puts this at an eight nine percent margin. Ramaswami

702
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 15: now becomes a key figure because if Ramaswami get out,

703
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 15: that would pretty much seal it for Trump. Because Ramaswami,

704
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 15: I don't think we had one voter who said that

705
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 15: they were Ramaswami.

706
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 8: Voters who would vote for Haley. It was it was

707
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 8: mostly Trump.

708
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 15: So if he were to get out before in New Hampshire,

709
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,359
Speaker 15: that would seal it for for Trump.

710
00:35:58,440 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 8: I don't think he will.

711
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 15: I think he's going to stay in it for a while,

712
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 15: but he would you know, you know, the person that

713
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 15: we were going to talk about in Iowa, he might

714
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 15: be more of a player in New Hampshire than we think.

715
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 5: Fascinating.

716
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 14: That actually is really interesting, Joe, as we've been gaming

717
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 14: out who who is actually going to be left in

718
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 14: the field by the time we get to these.

719
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 5: And whether if a fake might be looking to help

720
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:21,800
Speaker 5: Donald Trump.

721
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 14: Well, we know that he has probably been the most

722
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 14: vocal advocates as the greatest president of his life competing

723
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 14: against He said he'd leave the ballot in Colorado if

724
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 14: Donald Trump wasn't allowed to be on the ballot.

725
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:37,280
Speaker 13: Ultimately, we're still waiting for the Supreme Court to decide that. David.

726
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 14: On that note, have you talked to have done any

727
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 14: polling on the suggestion what if Trump is convicted of

728
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 14: a felony? What how that would change votes? Because I

729
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 14: feel like that is a dialogue we are starting to

730
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 14: hear more about that. Some voters do change their minds

731
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,439
Speaker 14: depending on the outcome of criminal proceedings, even if those

732
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 14: proceedings don't necessarily wrap up in time for these early races.

733
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 15: Yeah, not on the national polling as of yet, because

734
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,919
Speaker 15: there are so many it's like convicted of what he's

735
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,959
Speaker 15: been charged with, so many different things. You know, you're

736
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 15: you're you have to insert what specifically he would be

737
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 15: convicted of. Some people may look more seriously at January

738
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 15: sixth versus you know, a civil settlement based on financial documents,

739
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 15: that kind of thing. I think that you know, one

740
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 15: thing we do know is that when you know, every

741
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 15: time he's been in court, he's used it as a

742
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 15: fundraising opportunity. Uh, and he does mobilize supporters and get

743
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 15: more donations the more legal MoES that he has. Ironically,

744
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 15: so I think that's that's in play as well. I

745
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 15: mean in New Hampshire, what we're looking at from a

746
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 15: polling standpoint is how big.

747
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 8: Will the democracy issue be?

748
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 15: And I think that's where your question is is is

749
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 15: coming from democracy is a winning issue for Nikki Haley

750
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 15: between her voters and the Christie voters.

751
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 8: Two thirds said.

752
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 15: Among the people say democracy is the most important issue

753
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 15: worked with number three in the state in the primary,

754
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 15: Haley would have a huge lead over Trump on that issue,

755
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 15: But on the top two issues immigration economy, donald Trump

756
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 15: is in landslide material. I mean, he's winning three and

757
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,440
Speaker 15: a half to one among Ob Haley among immigration the

758
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 15: immigration issue. I think that's why you're seeing so much

759
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 15: centered around immigration in a state like New Hampshire, which

760
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 15: is nowhere near a southern border, but that's the issue

761
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 15: that people are talking about.

762
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 3: It's been interesting to see social security and retirement age

763
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:41,240
Speaker 3: pop up as an issue, not only because our interview

764
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 3: with Nikki Haley is being featured now on a Trump

765
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 3: ad that's playing across the Boston and New Hampshire TV

766
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 3: markets here, but it came up twice the other night

767
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:53,959
Speaker 3: by Donald Trump and by Ron DeSantis or voters talking

768
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 3: about it.

769
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 15: So we know demographically that New Hampshire is one of

770
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:02,720
Speaker 15: the older states in the country and disproportionately older voters

771
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 15: tend to be more Republican voters and younger voters tend

772
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 15: to be more Democratic voters. So I think this was

773
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 15: a play to the demographics, not only not only the

774
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 15: current polling, but also just the demographics that if older

775
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 15: voters come out strong, that's a big issue for just

776
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 15: that sliver of the population age wise where they feel

777
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 15: like if they don't feel secure on such security and

778
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 15: Haley is being attacked for that, that might be the

779
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 15: thing that pushes them off Nikki Haley and potentially to

780
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 15: Donald Trump.

781
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 14: All Right, in our final moment here with you, David,

782
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 14: as we look ahead to Monday, specifically, what will constitute

783
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 14: a surprise for you? Knowing everyone's expecting Trump will win,

784
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 14: where could the surprise be?

785
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 8: So the surprise would be Trump doesn't win. I mean

786
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 8: that will make.

787
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 13: Us along well, that would be the ultimate surprise, surely.

788
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 15: But short of that, I'm pretty confident he's he's going

789
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 15: to prevail. The only question in my mind is does

790
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 15: he break the record for the Iowa Caucases for the

791
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:15,760
Speaker 15: biggest landslide win in the Iowa caucauses with twelve points.

792
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:20,280
Speaker 15: That may happen. I mean, our polling says it will happen,

793
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 15: but it may not too. It may you know, people,

794
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 15: as you know the weather, there are so many conditions.

795
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 15: But aside from breaking records and a landslide win for Trump,

796
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 15: I think Ron DeSantis in a decisive win for second place.

797
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 16: Over Nicky Paley. It would be the would be the

798
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 16: next the next biggest surprise if they're tied owing it right,

799
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:48,879
Speaker 16: we believe that it's the second if the Santas won

800
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 16: comfortably over Hailing, and that would be really bad.

801
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 5: David Paleologos, come meet us in New Hampshire. This is Bloomberg.

802
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

803
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.

804
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,760
Speaker 4: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com,

805
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 4: and the.

806
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 7: Bloomberg Business App.

807
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

808
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,800
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

809
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 14: We've talked a lot about one important vote happening in

810
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:23,439
Speaker 14: the coming days.

811
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,799
Speaker 13: We all know it. The Iowa caucuses are on.

812
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 14: Monday, But Joe, there is another really important vote that

813
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 14: is happening this weekend.

814
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 13: It's in Taiwan.

815
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 3: That's right far from Iowa and arguably, well, I don't know,

816
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 3: the next most important election around the world. Yes, in

817
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,440
Speaker 3: this cycle that's going to see them happening in a lot.

818
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 14: Of places, mostly because it could be crucial in determining

819
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 14: not just the future trajectory of Taiwan's relationship with China,

820
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 14: but also the US's relationship with China by extension, knowing

821
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 14: how sensitive the Taiwan issue is at this moment when

822
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 14: we're seeing such tense relations between the world's two largest economies.

823
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:00,759
Speaker 5: Yes, we thought we would this down a little bit

824
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 5: before it happened.

825
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 3: It's not on everyone's radar because we've been spending so

826
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:07,360
Speaker 3: much time talking about Iowa and New Hampshire debate season

827
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 3: and all the rest of it, and we we thought

828
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 3: we would reach to a real expert who has helped

829
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 3: us out with the story in the past.

830
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 14: Yeah, that expert being Craig Singleton. He's from the Foundation

831
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 14: for the Defense of Democracies. So Craig, it's a three

832
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 14: way race essentially, we're talking about here, walk us through

833
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 14: what's at stake depending on who ultimately comes out on top.

834
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 17: Absolutely right, Everyone here in the Beltway is focused on Iowa.

835
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 17: But tomorrow more than nineteen million Taiwanese voters are going

836
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 17: to head to the polls to pick their next president

837
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,720
Speaker 17: and their next parliament. And it goes out without saying

838
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 17: I think as you sort of teed up there that

839
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:48,800
Speaker 17: this election carries some pretty serious significance. While domestic issues

840
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 17: like inflation and you know, sort of cost of living

841
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 17: are going to be critical in this year's election, far

842
00:42:55,840 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 17: and away the paramount concern revolves around Taiwan's really ship

843
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 17: with mainland China, and all told, you know, the election

844
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 17: is really going to serve as a litmus test for

845
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 17: the Chinese Communist Party's political warfare strategy, namely weather Beijing

846
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 17: can achieve its you know, stated reunification goals through non

847
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 17: kinetic means alone, and so the stakes really could not

848
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 17: be higher.

849
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 3: So we're basically talking about a menu of three candidates

850
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 3: here in sort of three degrees of separation from China,

851
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 3: which is close list a lot more closely aligned, I

852
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:31,760
Speaker 3: should say, with US policy right.

853
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:35,720
Speaker 17: Now, you know, I would say there's probably two outcomes

854
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 17: to this election, neither of which suggests to me that

855
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 17: US China relations are really going to improve meaningfully in

856
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 17: twenty twenty four. The ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party,

857
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 17: if they emerge victorious, and that is after China has portrayed,

858
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 17: you know, this election as a vote between peace and war,

859
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 17: it's hard to see Shojinping, the leader of China, accepting

860
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 17: defeat gracefully. And we have to remember sensitivities are running

861
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 17: prety high in Beijing right now as China confronts a

862
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 17: host of domestic and international crises, and so she has

863
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 17: made very clear recently that you know, he has a

864
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:15,760
Speaker 17: lot of urgency about reunification with Taiwan, perhaps sooner than later.

865
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 17: And so I think what that suggests to me is

866
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 17: that we could see a pretty serious Chinese overreaction if

867
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:25,320
Speaker 17: the ruling party does succeed, which a lot of polls

868
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 17: tend to show, although polls can be wrong. You know,

869
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 17: if the current ruling party is voted out of power,

870
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 17: I think China will meet that reaction sort of with

871
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 17: a little bit of a sigh of relief, but it

872
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 17: could it's hardly clear that either of those opposition parties

873
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:41,879
Speaker 17: is going to do Beijing's bidding, and that could really

874
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 17: lead I think China to become frustrated over time. I

875
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 17: think what's more frightening about that scenario for the United

876
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 17: States at least, though, is that, you know, China could

877
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,399
Speaker 17: sort of believe in the event that they can sort

878
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 17: of get rid of the ruling party in Taiwan that

879
00:44:55,600 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 17: they've hit upon this winning political warfare formula, one that

880
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 17: expertly blends provocative military action and sort of disinformation and

881
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,280
Speaker 17: information warfare. And in that case, they would be pretty

882
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 17: emboldened to begin deploying that same strategy in other places,

883
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 17: including here in the United States, where they are really

884
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 17: seeking to sort of meddle already in the upcoming twenty

885
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 17: twenty four election in the United States.

886
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 14: Well, that is, you know, a frightening proposition, I think

887
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 14: to many as we talk about our own elections, but

888
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 14: on the Taiwan election for just a moment longer, how

889
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 14: much is there for Taiwanese voters a real consideration of

890
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 14: independence from China? Is that something that they actually want?

891
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 14: Are they likely to seek out the candidate who would

892
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 14: most be supportive of that idea, or is that just

893
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 14: you know, the worst case scenario for China that isn't

894
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 14: necessarily something that they would like to see realized.

895
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:55,280
Speaker 17: I think long term voting trends suggest that most Taiwanese

896
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 17: voters would prefer the status quo. They're not seeking to

897
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 17: poke China and the eye, but they're also increasingly not

898
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 17: interested in reunification and certainly not reunification on China's terms.

899
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 17: Those long term trends are going to be just incredibly

900
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 17: frustrating for China, and so this election is particularly important

901
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 17: because it could signal whether we see this turn back

902
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 17: towards perhaps more a slightly more conciliatory approach towards the mainland,

903
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 17: or whether the ruling party in power, which has stood

904
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 17: up for Taiwanese sovereignty, not independence, but sovereignty, has garnered

905
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 17: to stay in power. And I do think that we're

906
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:35,399
Speaker 17: going to get a good sense about the average voter

907
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 17: sentiment in Taiwan, but I do think that a lot

908
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 17: of the talk about independence is largely sort of melodramatic.

909
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 17: We haven't seen an indication that Taiwanese voters are pursuing independence,

910
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 17: but what they do want is to have a sense

911
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:53,879
Speaker 17: of self determination, and they do want to be able

912
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:56,760
Speaker 17: to maintain their democratic system in democratic governance.

913
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 3: We're spending time with Craig Singleton from the Founder for

914
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:04,839
Speaker 3: the Defense of Democracy's China program. Should the DPP then

915
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 3: remain in power, Craig, what kind of a flex might

916
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 3: we see from Beijing? Another blockade around the island, send

917
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:12,640
Speaker 3: a couple of missiles over What would it look like.

918
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 17: Yeah, Like I said, it's hard to imagine chi Jinping

919
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 17: accepting defeat gracefully. Here. I think an immediate sort of

920
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 17: military reaction, probably through increased military exercises and provocative exercises,

921
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 17: that that is a strong possibility. We have to remember

922
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 17: that the Chinese leadership has made clear how important and

923
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:38,399
Speaker 17: monumental this election is. They have thrown the kitchen sink

924
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:41,480
Speaker 17: at Taiwan in the last few months in terms of disinformation,

925
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 17: military coercion, economic coercion with new trade subsidies and trade

926
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 17: restrictions on Taiwanese companies that are reliant on the mainland.

927
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 17: And if all of that effort fall short of achieving

928
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 17: their political objectives, I would imagine that there's going to

929
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 17: be quite a bit of frustration. Whether that veers towards

930
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 17: overreaction or miscalculation remains to be seen, but it's certainly

931
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 17: a possibility.

932
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 14: Well, especially keeping in mind that we learned just recently

933
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 14: back in November, at that summit in San Francisco between

934
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 14: Shijinping and President Biden, she essentially told him, to paraphrase,

935
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 14: that they have every intention of Taiwan being reunified with

936
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 14: China that they would prefer it didn't happen with force.

937
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 14: How realistic do you think that is something that's going

938
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 14: to happen in the near to medium term, say the

939
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 14: next five years.

940
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 17: You know, it's really difficult to assess. I think ultimately

941
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 17: I believe she wants to reunify through all means short

942
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 17: of war, but there are a lot of circumstances and

943
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:47,759
Speaker 17: conditions in which he might consider using kinetic force. I

944
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,360
Speaker 17: think at the end of the day, we're spending so

945
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 17: much time trying to think through different countermoves of how

946
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 17: that Chinese could react without actually just thinking and looking

947
00:48:58,600 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 17: a little bit about what they're saying.

948
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:00,479
Speaker 7: Time.

949
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 17: You brought up a great point. Chi Jinping has made clear.

950
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 17: Reunification is inevitable, whether the Taiwanese people want it or not.

951
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 17: There are real steps here that we can take in

952
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 17: Washington to provide the Taiwanese with the defensive military equipment

953
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 17: that they need to defend themselves, while also making clear

954
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,880
Speaker 17: to the China that they should probably accept the results

955
00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 17: of this outcome, and we should vocally be repeating I

956
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 17: think these conversations are happening privately but not publicly that

957
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 17: the United States doesn't support any unilateral attempts, whether they're

958
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 17: from Taiwan or from China, to change the status quo.

959
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 17: I think we should be beating that drum publicly as

960
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 17: well as privately, not just to reassure the Chinese, but

961
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 17: to make clear to the incoming Taiwanese administration that we're

962
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 17: watching and I think that we're eager to help them

963
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 17: with their defense, but we're also going to make sure

964
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 17: that we stick through our long term commits in the region.

965
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 5: Just got a minute left here, Craig.

966
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 3: What does Beijing think of our elections that are about

967
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,319
Speaker 3: to begin here, the primary cycle and whether or not

968
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:00,760
Speaker 3: Donald Trump becomes the nominee.

969
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:05,360
Speaker 17: You know, last month, the intelligence community here released the

970
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 17: classified assessment that showed that China meddled extensively and pervasively

971
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:12,720
Speaker 17: in our midterms in twenty twenty two, even getting involved

972
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 17: in picking candidates for Congress and undermining those that were

973
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:20,239
Speaker 17: perceived as being anti China. I think what they're going

974
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:23,240
Speaker 17: to do in this coming term is more of the same.

975
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 17: There's no indication that the Biden administration has called out

976
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 17: Chinese election medlaying or threatened them with any sort of

977
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 17: consequence if they were repeat that again. But I do

978
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 17: think we're going to be very keen to show us

979
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:41,280
Speaker 17: democracy is dysfunctional, chaotic, and unreliable. Those are key themes

980
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 17: and messages the Chinese are propagating around the world, and

981
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:46,320
Speaker 17: I think we can expect that sort of same information

982
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:49,439
Speaker 17: of warfare theme to be persistent throughout twenty twenty four.

983
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 5: Greg, it's great to see you.

984
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 3: Thanks for setting us up for this important election in Taiwan.

985
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 3: We'd love to hear your thoughts once we get through it.

986
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 3: He's seen your fellow at the Foundation for the Defensive

987
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 3: Democracy's China program, and that's of course why we call

988
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:04,479
Speaker 3: on him, Kayley. He sure knows what he's talking about,

989
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 3: and I'll be deeply curious to hear how this goes.

990
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 3: The ramifications run a lot deeper than a lot of

991
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:09,040
Speaker 3: people might realize.

992
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 1: Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch

993
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at one Eastern.

994
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:20,840
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

995
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 2: Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

996
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:27,200
Speaker 5: The forecast for Caucus Day.

997
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 3: It's snowing right now in Des Moines caucus day a

998
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 3: high of four below zero. We've been obsessing over this

999
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 3: because it really could change the ground game and even

1000
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:39,399
Speaker 3: the results of this.

1001
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:41,760
Speaker 5: Iowa caucus with record cold temps.

1002
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 3: Bloomberg News reporting today Kaylee that the DeSantis camp thinks

1003
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 3: it can out perform in bad weather because it's got

1004
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 3: the ground game.

1005
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:49,240
Speaker 13: That's what they say.

1006
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 14: That they've spent so much time invested in the state

1007
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 14: of Iowa, visiting all ninety nine counties, signing up all.

1008
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:56,240
Speaker 5: Their people that staying one hundred captains.

1009
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:56,399
Speaker 13: Good to go.

1010
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 14: That's right, And of course DeSantis also is touting in

1011
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:01,800
Speaker 14: Iowa the endorsement of the state's governor.

1012
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:02,960
Speaker 5: His best friend, Kim Renold.

1013
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,879
Speaker 14: That's correct, and that's actually someone that Bloomberg's very own

1014
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 14: Sealia Mosen spoke with on Bloomberg's Big Take DC podcast.

1015
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 14: Slea is actually already in Iowa where she's braving the elements.

1016
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 14: Before Joe and.

1017
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:15,839
Speaker 5: I we have moved. We don't know if we can

1018
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 5: get there.

1019
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 13: Joe and I are gonna have to do the same soon.

1020
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 14: Seleia, tell us more about your conversation with the governor

1021
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:24,280
Speaker 14: and maybe also how cold is it actually?

1022
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,919
Speaker 18: I am stuck in Atlanta right now, I can tell

1023
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 18: you you're.

1024
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 13: Making our point.

1025
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 12: Yeah, people aren't getting there.

1026
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 13: I don't know who's going to vote.

1027
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:38,279
Speaker 12: Let's see what happens and if Iowans can stomach it.

1028
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 12: But I'm telling you. I spoke to Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.

1029
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 18: It was her first interview for the year, just a

1030
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 18: couple of days before Iowan's kick off the election year

1031
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:49,320
Speaker 18: for the country.

1032
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 12: She spoke to Big Take DC, and she.

1033
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 18: Had something really interesting to say about what would happen

1034
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 18: if Trump is the Republican nominee.

1035
00:52:58,960 --> 00:52:59,719
Speaker 5: Great, let's listen.

1036
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 19: I'm a Republican. Any one of the candidates that we

1037
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 19: have running will do a better job than the absentee

1038
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 19: president that we have serving. At this point, it is

1039
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:13,359
Speaker 19: unbelievable what we see happening under this administration, and so,

1040
00:53:13,600 --> 00:53:15,359
Speaker 19: without hesitation.

1041
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 3: It's fascinating when you consider Seliah the Suffolk poll that

1042
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 3: we just talked to David Paleologos about showing Nikki Haley

1043
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 3: moving past Ron DeSantis in Iowa. It's not looking great

1044
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 3: for his momentum there, now, is it.

1045
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 12: It's not looking great for his momentum.

1046
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:35,879
Speaker 18: The interesting thing that Reynolds did say to me during

1047
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 18: our interview. You have to download and listen, but the

1048
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 18: interview was interesting. She talked about how if Donald Trump

1049
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 18: gets less than fifty percent of Iowan's support, then it

1050
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:51,280
Speaker 18: is game on for a number two candidate to work

1051
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 18: through the primaries New Hampshire, Carolina, South Carolina and then

1052
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,840
Speaker 18: onto Super Tuesday and maybe break Trump fever.

1053
00:53:59,200 --> 00:53:59,359
Speaker 7: Wo.

1054
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:02,280
Speaker 14: She think that Rondasantis was going to be that candidate

1055
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:05,399
Speaker 14: no matter what, even if he didn't come in number two.

1056
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 14: To seas your destiny that DeSantis has taken.

1057
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:11,320
Speaker 12: This all the way, she suggested. She was direct.

1058
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 18: She said DeSantis is going to win it. DeSantis can

1059
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:16,440
Speaker 18: win it. He is right for the country, he's right

1060
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:21,399
Speaker 18: for islands. She is full steam ahead, Uh, supporting Ronda

1061
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 18: Santis right now.

1062
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 3: Seleah, We've been taking this time each day recently to

1063
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 3: update the forecast. We go to Des Moines and listen.

1064
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 3: You know, it's like the local TV stations there. This

1065
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 3: is the top story KCCI channel eight. You're in Atlanta

1066
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 3: right now, just listen.

1067
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 20: I know we're just off two thirty five and this

1068
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:41,320
Speaker 20: is a very Midwest thing to say that it's not

1069
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 20: that cold unless the wind is blowing well, the wind

1070
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:46,439
Speaker 20: is blowing and it's pegging up that snow. It's making

1071
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:48,800
Speaker 20: it cold. It's making it cold, and it's blowing that

1072
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 20: snow everywhere. It's causing drifts off the side, off the

1073
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 20: sides of buildings.

1074
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:54,880
Speaker 3: Oh my god, this poor lady's on the side of

1075
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:57,480
Speaker 3: the high It's drifting up the sides of buildings.

1076
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,239
Speaker 5: Seleia, what's that going to mean for turn out?

1077
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:02,960
Speaker 12: I mean they had expected.

1078
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:07,320
Speaker 18: Iowan State Party local officials had talked about.

1079
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 12: Two hundred thousand Iowans.

1080
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:15,319
Speaker 18: Participating in the caucuses, casting ballots, persuading each other, getting persuaded.

1081
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,839
Speaker 12: It is really unclear who is going to make it out.

1082
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 18: Events are getting canceled left and right in Iowa right now,

1083
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 18: and flights clearly, Yeah, exactly.

1084
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 5: The weekend is here. Yeah, you can't be with any

1085
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 5: voters and there's no media there to cover it.

1086
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 7: I love it.

1087
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 3: We'll cover the Georgia primary at some point. Just stay

1088
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:39,919
Speaker 3: where you are, Soleya, Hey, we'll meet you there. We're

1089
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 3: trying to get there tomorrow. Maybe we can actually pull

1090
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 3: this thing off. We'll meet Seleya in Des Moines and

1091
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:49,200
Speaker 3: check out the Big Take DC podcast. Subscribe after you

1092
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:52,920
Speaker 3: do the Sound on Podcast. Thank you, Sileia.

1093
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, if you're a political junkie, you need them both.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Sound on Podcast.

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Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 3: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can

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Speaker 3: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one

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Speaker 3: pm Eastern

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Speaker 5: Time at Bloomberg dot com.