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Speaker 2: gaming resources what is going on everybody? John Middlecoff Three

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Speaker 2: and Out podcast. How are we doing? My people? Here

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Speaker 2: is the game plan. We will talk a little football Mames,

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen, Nick Sirianni Tomlin says They're gonna have a

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Speaker 2: quarterback competition the Atlanta Falcons and Belichick now feels not

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Speaker 2: likely but inevitable. Stucky will join us. We will talk

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Speaker 2: all four games, talk betting, talk some props, and really

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Speaker 2: dive deep into the week because we only got seven

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Speaker 2: games left, right We got four this week, two next

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Speaker 2: week and the super Bowl, so we got to enjoy

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Speaker 2: it and we definitely got a gamble. I plan on

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Speaker 2: doing that. So here is the plan. Football, Then Stucky

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Speaker 2: and we will get back to a mail bag. Maybe

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Speaker 2: I'll do a mail bag. Maybe I'll put one out

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Speaker 2: on Saturday morning. Maybe maybe I'll do that, depends what

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Speaker 2: I'm doing on Friday, which I don't really have plans,

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Speaker 2: so maybe I'll bang out a mail bag tomorrow. You

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Speaker 2: guys know, the drill at John Middlecoff is my Instagram

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Speaker 2: fire in those dms as well as what else do

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Speaker 2: we got going on? If you listen on Collins Feed,

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Speaker 2: make sure you subscribe to three and out. We're up

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Speaker 2: on the YouTube. Appreciate everyone that's followed there, and we'll

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Speaker 2: just keep rocking and roll at the Volume dot com.

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Speaker 2: We got merch three and out hats wearing one right now.

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Speaker 2: Let's rock and roll before we dive into some football, though.

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Speaker 2: Can I tell you about my friends, my very good

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Speaker 2: the game Time app, the official ticketing app of this podcast. Games, football, basketball,

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Speaker 2: Baseball's right around the corner. You want to go to Florida,

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Speaker 2: twenty dollars when you check out to any event, concert,

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Speaker 2: comedy shows, games. Cannot recommend them enough. Get outside the house,

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Speaker 2: go do something and enjoy yourself. I know I've used

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Speaker 2: them several times and I don't regret it. I've said

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Speaker 2: this forever. I watch pro sports for the stars. I

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Speaker 2: watch college sports for Alabama, Duke, North Carolina, and Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: I'm not into overachievers in the small, little program. And

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Speaker 2: I'm a small program guy came from started my football

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Speaker 2: career in D one, DOUBLEA, and got a job in

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Speaker 2: Fresno State. I got news for you. Watch in Alabama

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Speaker 2: and Michigan is dramatically better, just like my entire life,

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Speaker 2: from Michael Jordan to Tiger Woods my two favorite athletes,

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Speaker 2: and Fallen Tom and Peyton my entire adult life. I

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Speaker 2: watched this stuff for the superstars. Now, it doesn't mean

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Speaker 2: in a team sport like football that you don't have

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Speaker 2: some fantastic stories, undrafted free agents, overachievers that make plays.

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Speaker 2: But pro sports have always been driven by the best.

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Speaker 2: And listen, I'm a big market guy, born and raised

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Speaker 2: a forty nine er guy when Steve Young and Jerry

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Speaker 2: Rice were humming. So I am drawn to the big names,

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Speaker 2: and so are we. All The numbers speak for themselves

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Speaker 2: right when it comes to ratings, brands and individuals. But

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Speaker 2: it doesn't get much better than Mahomes and Josh Allen.

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Speaker 2: It really doesn't. And as someone who really gravitated toward

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Speaker 2: Peyton Manning in like two thousand, he always kind of

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Speaker 2: let me down when he played Belichick and he played

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady. He couldn't get over the hump. They owned

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Speaker 2: his ass early in his career. And the reality is

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Speaker 2: to make something a true rivalry, you gotta beat the

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Speaker 2: the other team. Like, let's face it, before the Red

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Speaker 2: Sox took down the Yankees in two thousand and four,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't really much of a rivalry. The Yankees were

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Speaker 2: winning all the time they owned the Red Sox, and

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Speaker 2: then they started, you know, they flipped the script a

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Speaker 2: little bit. It's like if Lebron hadn't taken down the

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Speaker 2: Warriors seventy three win team like that wouldn't have been

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Speaker 2: a rivalry. The Warriors consistently beat his ass, but he

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Speaker 2: got them, so it became a legitimate rivalry even though

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Speaker 2: they beat him the majority of times. You have to

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Speaker 2: win one of the games to make it a rivalry.

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Speaker 2: Like it's part of what makes college sports so great.

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Speaker 2: Duke North Carolina, Ohio State, Michigan, Auburn, Alabama. Aubury can

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Speaker 2: be awful and they always give Alabama everything they can handle,

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Speaker 2: no matter how average their team may be, and vice versa.

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Speaker 2: If Alabama's down, they're gonna give Auburn everything they can handle.

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Speaker 2: And this is a one sided rivalry. Even though these

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Speaker 2: two teams play each other and Josh has beat him

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Speaker 2: in the regular season, but countless times in the biggest moments,

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes has taken him down. That's what made the

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Speaker 2: Bengals and the Chief such an interesting matchup. It's like, well,

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow can beat Patrick Mahomes. We saw him do

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Speaker 2: it two years ago. It's why when they played last

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Speaker 2: year in that AFC Championship game, You're like, no clue

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Speaker 2: who's gonna win now. I still feel like that about

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Speaker 2: this game. But as I talked about Stucky with the gambling,

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Speaker 2: I would have a hard time. I'm not betting this game.

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Speaker 2: The only thing I'm gonna bet in this game is

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Speaker 2: the over for Josh Allen's rush attempt. I've never even

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Speaker 2: played a prop in my life in football. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: hammer that like I couldn't take betting against Andy Reid

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Speaker 2: and Patrick Mahomes. Though, if you're the Bills and you're

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Speaker 2: a Bills fan, if you're Josh Allen and Sean McDermott,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't get any better than this. You got him

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Speaker 2: at home. It's the first playoff game the dudes ever

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Speaker 2: played on the road. You are the favorite for a reason,

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Speaker 2: right this team relative to their past teams, and I'll

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Speaker 2: promise you this, relative to what they'll be moving forward,

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Speaker 2: this might be your best opportunity. Like the way Peyton

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Speaker 2: Manning finally flip the script was a game in Indianapolis,

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Speaker 2: and I'm pretty sure they were down like twenty four

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Speaker 2: to three at halftime. I remember being in college like

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Speaker 2: he's never going to fucking do it, Peyton Manning can

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Speaker 2: never beat the Pats, and then what happened completely flipped

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Speaker 2: in the second half and they finally won the game,

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Speaker 2: and they went on to win the Super Bowl. Now,

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Speaker 2: even if the Bills win this game, I don't know

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Speaker 2: if it's like you knew the Colts were gonna win

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Speaker 2: that Super Bowl. Hell, I wouldn't even feel great about

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Speaker 2: them winning the next game against the Baltimore Ravens. But

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Speaker 2: you gotta win this game or else. This is not

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Speaker 2: a rivalry. We have some fun regular season games, but

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Speaker 2: we know who's gonna win in the biggest moments. And

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Speaker 2: the shitty part for the Bills. But what makes it

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Speaker 2: so great for us as fans is like we saw

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Speaker 2: the Miami Dolphins. Now I understand they had a million injuries,

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Speaker 2: their quarterbacks. Never winning outdoors in a freezing cold game

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Speaker 2: never gonna happen. The Chiefs are completely unfazed by weather.

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Speaker 2: They literally just played in Antarctica last week, so now

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Speaker 2: they got to go up to Buffalo, also a terrible

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Speaker 2: weather place. It's gonna be freezing, snow, wind, who knows, sleet.

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Speaker 2: They'll be unfair, So there is no advantage that way.

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Speaker 2: You saw last week with Patrick Mahomes, he like played

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Speaker 2: completely normal. Andy Reid's calling forty plus pass plays up

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Speaker 2: in the game like they're unfazed by the cold, and

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Speaker 2: their receivers aren't even that good. So if you're Josh Allen,

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Speaker 2: if you're Sean McDermott, like my first year with the Eagles,

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Speaker 2: Sean McDermott was our defensive coordinator. We made the we

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Speaker 2: hosted a playoff game, Aaron Rodgers beat us, he got fired.

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Speaker 2: Now him and Andy Reid are buddies. Like I don't

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Speaker 2: think there's ill will at this point in time, but

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Speaker 2: this is a big deal for you. It's not just

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Speaker 2: a rivalry. This is the guy where you got your start.

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Speaker 2: Sean McDermott started as like the lowest guy in the

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Speaker 2: totem pole. It's like called the coach's assistant, something Andy

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Speaker 2: Reid has done forever, and he's moved up to become,

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Speaker 2: you know, I don't want to say a star head coach,

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Speaker 2: but a very very successful head coach.

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Speaker 3: But let's face it, you gotta win this game. You

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Speaker 3: gotta beat this team, you gotta slay this dragon. Like

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Speaker 3: ultimately Tiger owned Phil. It was like Phil's never gonna

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Speaker 3: be able to do it. Tiger's in his head. And

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Speaker 3: then Phil started rattling off majors.

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Speaker 2: Right. No different in football, Peyton Manning, like we said,

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Speaker 2: finally got over the hump. It's a little different golf

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Speaker 2: because you're also playing the field. In team sports, you're

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Speaker 2: just playing the other team. Like, no one could ever

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Speaker 2: take down Michael when it mattered, and so far, the

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Speaker 2: only guy who's taken down Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid

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Speaker 2: is Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. Yeah, Tom Brady beat

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Speaker 2: him in the Super Bowl too, even though that game

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Speaker 2: they had lost both their tackles, they had no shot.

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Speaker 2: But like in the AFC, there's been two guys, Tom

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Speaker 2: Brady Joe Burrow. Obviously tom Brady's in Belichick. I mean

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Speaker 2: the greatest combination we've ever seen. And Joe Burrow went

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Speaker 2: healthy and I saw it this year against the forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers as many as you did as well. Like,

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Speaker 2: he's one of the best players in the sport, and

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Speaker 2: he has a chance if he can just stay healthy,

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Speaker 2: he's gonna be a Hall of Famer. So Josh Allen,

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Speaker 2: who I think we all acknowledge, should be in the

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Speaker 2: Hall of Fame one day. He's easily one of the

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Speaker 2: most physically gifted players we've ever seen at any position.

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Speaker 2: The dude is a freak and he's a winner, Like

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Speaker 2: wins a ton of games. He's got some choke artists

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs. We saw a couple of years ago

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Speaker 2: when they lost that game, the thirteen second game. I

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Speaker 2: think he threw four or five touchdowns. He was freaking

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Speaker 2: incredible in that game. So it's not like he's got

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Speaker 2: this Dak Prescott thing going on where he shits the

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Speaker 2: bet in the playoffs. I mean last a couple of

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Speaker 2: days ago. He was freaking awesome in that game. But

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Speaker 2: you gotta win this. You gotta have this moment at home,

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Speaker 2: no excuses. I don't care how many guys are injured

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Speaker 2: like this is the time you're playing a Chiefs team they,

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Speaker 2: let's face it is pretty flawed. So I watched sports

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Speaker 2: for this. Mahomes Josh Allen on the road, freezing cold.

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Speaker 2: This is AFC football. This is two guys that make

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Speaker 2: forty five to fifty million dollars, that have enormous contracts

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Speaker 2: that are worth every penny that you would have no

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Speaker 2: hesitation paying way more. They carry your franchise. But right now,

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Speaker 2: you know you got to take down Mahomes and if

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Speaker 2: the Bills do it, listen, we will no matter how

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Speaker 2: good the Ravens look on Saturday, assuming they win, and

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna assume they win, We'll give him a shot.

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Speaker 2: Because you get that guy, you finally slay the dragon.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the damn breaks. Now you got to take down Lamar.

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Speaker 2: This is why we talk about the AFC is so hard,

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Speaker 2: because not only do you have to play all these

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Speaker 2: superstar forty five to fifty million dollar quarterbacks, you got

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Speaker 2: to play him in inclement weather. Now, the thing with

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, they're kind of weather cheek coats, unfazed.

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Speaker 2: They have huge arms. Obviously, Josh is a great athlete.

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes a damn good one and they can make

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Speaker 2: plays with their legs unfazed by pressure. So can't wait

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Speaker 2: to watch this game. Man, This is I watch pro

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Speaker 2: sports to watch the best in the business. I always

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Speaker 2: have and always will. Doesn't get any better. Sirianni, who

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Speaker 2: is I think Jeffrey Lurie as my guys are a

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Speaker 2: production team. When we were recording something earlier today, mentioned

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Speaker 2: that I guess he's in the Caribbean on his yacht.

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Speaker 2: So this is good for Jeffrey. You know, even when

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Speaker 2: you lose as an owner, you're still winning because you're

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Speaker 2: worth a lot of money and you got fun shit

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Speaker 2: to do whenever you want to do it. But Nick Sirianni,

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Speaker 2: who by all accounts as of recording this, is going

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Speaker 2: to return as the Eagles head coach, and he's gonna

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Speaker 2: outline a project or plan for his different assistant coaches

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Speaker 2: to Jeffrey Lurie to basically make the case but make

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Speaker 2: him feel good how they're going to improve next year.

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Speaker 2: And listen, if you're a young offensive coach and you're

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Speaker 2: the head coach, I understand having defensive coordinator turnover, especially

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Speaker 2: when one of your defensive coordinators get a job you

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Speaker 2: might hire the wrong guy. Siriani is not the first,

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Speaker 2: and he definitely won't be the last to make a

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Speaker 2: bad hire at the opposite side of the ball in

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Speaker 2: which he has quote unquote expertise. I don't fault him

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Speaker 2: for their situation this offseason. And let's face it, they

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Speaker 2: were on the right guy. They wanted Fangio, but Gannon

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Speaker 2: and the Cardinals screwed him. It's why the Eagles went

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Speaker 2: after him and ultimately got a draft pick. So like

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Speaker 2: they didn't ultimately want Sean to side, they were kind

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Speaker 2: of left holding the bag. They were in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: The hiring cycle had already taken place, and they had

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Speaker 2: to hire a guy who's already on their staff, which

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Speaker 2: ideally they wouldn't never have hired. And then they made

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Speaker 2: the change to Matt Patricia, who was even worse. Don't

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Speaker 2: totally blame them. They had to make a change and

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Speaker 2: that was their only option. It failed. We all acknowledged that.

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Speaker 2: Here's my issue with this whole operation. He's not just

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Speaker 2: gonna talk about the defense. He's like, well, how are

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Speaker 2: we going to improve their offense. Let's take you know,

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Speaker 2: three guys that I think we all view as the

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Speaker 2: best young offensive coaches in the NFL that are head coaches, right,

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Speaker 2: Sean McVay, who's my age, thirty eight, thirty nine years old.

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Speaker 2: He is the offensive coordinator. Matt Lafleur and Kyle who

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Speaker 2: are playing each other this year. I think they're both

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Speaker 2: forty three forty four years old. Right, they would never

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Speaker 2: have to go to their owner Kronky or Jed or

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Speaker 2: in Laflour's case, Gudakins and Murphy. And like obviously Lafleur

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Speaker 2: has had a defensive issue on his hands. A lot

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Speaker 2: of people want him to fire his buddy Joe Barry,

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Speaker 2: and depending on how this weekend goes, he might have to. Right,

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Speaker 2: he probably is going to have to like Joe Berry

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Speaker 2: more than likely won't be his defense coordinator. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: that happens, I give you somewhat of a pass. Right

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Speaker 2: you hire the wrong guy, you gotta pivot now. Should

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Speaker 2: they have fired him last year and hired a better

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Speaker 2: guy probably, but regardless they're in the second round. Whatever, Matlafloor,

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Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan or Tean McVay would never have to walk

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Speaker 2: into the powers that be and go here is my

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Speaker 2: plan at offensive coordinator and the guys to help us

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Speaker 2: fix our offense. Why, that's what they do, that's their role.

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Speaker 2: I say this all the time. If I'm hiring a

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Speaker 2: young coach. One of the reasons I'm hiring him one,

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Speaker 2: I am betting on the come that he can lead

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Speaker 2: the entire squad and put together a good coaching staff.

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Speaker 2: But I'm hiring him for his expertise and specifically on offense.

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Speaker 2: Which the highest paid guy on any team, if they're

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Speaker 2: on their second contract and they're good, is always going

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Speaker 2: to be the quarterback. Right Like, if Jordan Love keeps

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Speaker 2: playing like this, he is gonna get an enormous contract. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: all the other guys, the Mahomes, the Allen, all those

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Speaker 2: guys make a ton of money. And the Eagles are

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Speaker 2: a good example of having a team with the guy

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Speaker 2: that they paid a lot of money. Now you can

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Speaker 2: say they paid him too fast, regardless they did it.

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Speaker 2: He had an awesome Super Bowl. Might have been an

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Speaker 2: outlier season. But shouldn't your head coach who's an offensive

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Speaker 2: guy who's forty two, forty three years old, shouldn't that

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Speaker 2: be his baby. Shouldn't his level of expertise be able

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Speaker 2: to fix that position? You notice whenever you watch you

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Speaker 2: know those other three guys McVeigh, definitely Laflour with Love

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Speaker 2: and Kyle with the forty nine ers, they're always talking

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Speaker 2: and dealing with either the quarterback or offensive players. Why

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Speaker 2: because they're fucking calling the plays. So if anything ever

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Speaker 2: go wrong they have a tough stretch, they can fix it.

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Speaker 2: Think about this with Sean McVay, he's like, I'm over

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Speaker 2: Jared Goff. They got a better quarterback, and when that

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Speaker 2: guy's been on the field, they've been freaking awesome. Kyle

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Speaker 2: Shanahan the offense, no one even questions that is one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent his baby, clearly Floor and Jordan Love what

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Speaker 2: he's done. If Jordan Love can just sustain this level

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Speaker 2: of play, Matt Laflour is gonna be one of the

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Speaker 2: best coaches in the NFL for a long time if

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Speaker 2: that's what he has in the bag. If this year

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Speaker 2: and this stretch of football is not an outlier, and

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Speaker 2: that's why you feel really good if you're a fan

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Speaker 2: of any of those teams of having that guy as

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Speaker 2: your head coach. Think about the older generation of play colors,

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Speaker 2: Sean Payton, Andy Reid. Would they ever have to look

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Speaker 2: to their owner and go, I need to bring in

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Speaker 2: this guy to help fix the quarterback. Of course, not

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Speaker 2: even John Gruden, who is coming after the league hardcore

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Speaker 2: in this legal battle. The offense was one hundred percent his,

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Speaker 2: specifically the quarterback of the play calls. So this is

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Speaker 2: my issue with Nick Sirianna. It's like the players like him.

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Speaker 2: I know a lot of people with the Eagles people

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Speaker 2: like him. He is well liked in the building. Right,

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Speaker 2: you saw Fletcher Cox if you haven't seen the clip,

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Speaker 2: someone asked him Jeff McLain about Sirianna getting fired, and

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Speaker 2: you know, Fletcher's one of the team captains, leaders of

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Speaker 2: the squad shot right back. Kelsey's had his back that

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Speaker 2: they've all supported him. So he is. It's not like

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Speaker 2: he is some toxic individual where the players turned on

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Speaker 2: like Josh McDaniels. Right, But what does he do? What

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Speaker 2: does he do besides some of the motivation which clearly

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Speaker 2: didn't work. Shouldn't his expertise be able to get Jalen

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Speaker 2: back on track? Shouldn't that be part of a selling point?

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Speaker 2: But we all know it's not and it's not gonna be.

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Speaker 2: And a huge conversation around the Eagles. Isn't gonna be like, well,

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Speaker 2: are they just gonna go land Wink Martindale or are they

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Speaker 2: gonna land so and so defensive coordinator. It's like they're

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Speaker 2: surely either gonna demote or fire Brian Johnson. Who's gonna

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Speaker 2: call the plays? I think it's fair to say no

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Speaker 2: one expects it to be Nick Sirianni. So isn't that

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Speaker 2: your issue to start? Think about Mike McCarthy, who everyone

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Speaker 2: thought was gonna get fired. Myself included, well, if you're

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Speaker 2: Jerry and you're eighty plus years old, and clearly you

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Speaker 2: don't want to go on a coaching search aka higher

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Speaker 2: Belichick because then he takes credit away from you. That's

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Speaker 2: a different conversation. At least you can say this. I

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Speaker 2: know Mike can consistently win in the in the regular season,

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Speaker 2: and now this year he proved. Now I know the

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Speaker 2: the final game was horrendous, but like he can be

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Speaker 2: my play caller. So not only is he my head coach,

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Speaker 2: but when he's my play caller, my quarterback excels except

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Speaker 2: the playoff game, but has a really good season, Like

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Speaker 2: he can call the plays. So I just can't wrap

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Speaker 2: my head around hiring a young offensive guy who is

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Speaker 2: incapable of calling the place. In my opinion, that's the

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Speaker 2: wrong guy to have as your head coach. It really is, like,

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Speaker 2: here's what I know about Mike McCarthy.

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Speaker 1: Next year.

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Speaker 2: Their offense is gonna be good. Their offense is gonna

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Speaker 2: be good because it was good when he wasn't calling plays,

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Speaker 2: and then when he took over, it got even better. Sirianni, like,

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Speaker 2: what are the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Gonna look like?

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Speaker 2: No clue. I would assume they're better on defense if

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Speaker 2: they hire a good defensive coordinator, which they definitely only

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Speaker 2: will pay for. But when it comes to the offensive

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Speaker 2: side of the ball, your guess is as good as mine.

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Speaker 2: And that's a problem because you don't guess anymore. Like

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Speaker 2: Sean McVay, they're gonna be good on offense, Kyle Shannon,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be good on offense. Matt Lafleur, Aaron Rodgers, now,

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Speaker 2: Jordan Love, they're gonna be good on offense. Sean Payton,

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Speaker 2: he will figure it out if he gets a capable quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Andy Reid, proven in coach with any quarterback. Nick Sirianni,

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Speaker 2: I don't know, puts on weird shirts High five's dom.

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Speaker 2: I just I just don't totally get it. And this

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Speaker 2: is not personal. It's just like from a coaching standpoint,

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Speaker 2: I don't see how you couldn't have just in major

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Speaker 2: reservations and listen texting with people. They've never hired defensive coaches,

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Speaker 2: and they've never hired retreads, right Andy Reid first time coach,

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Speaker 2: Chip Kelly first time in the NFL, Doug Peterson first

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Speaker 2: time head coach. Nick Sirianni first time head coach. So

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Speaker 2: and I was guilty of this. I did a lot

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Speaker 2: of Belichick. They'll there even verable, like, that's not really

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Speaker 2: their style. They're an offensive oriented organization right now. They

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Speaker 2: value defense and they pay for defense, but they like

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Speaker 2: offensive head coaches. And when you look around the landscape,

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Speaker 2: it's a lot of Belichick, Rabel and Pete Carroll, which

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Speaker 2: is not really going to be their thing. You know,

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Speaker 2: firing him for Ben Johnson would be somewhat risky. Like

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Speaker 2: we often say, just hiring a coordinator doesn't guarantee you anything.

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Speaker 2: But I just I think you got to be pretty

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Speaker 2: nervous with Sirianni in the offensive situation now. Luckily because

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Speaker 2: of the quarterback and some of the infrastructure they have there,

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Speaker 2: you know, you should be able to pluck. But this

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Speaker 2: is in college. I can't just steal the best offensive

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Speaker 2: coordinator because I'm willing to double his salary. The guy

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Speaker 2: has to be available, so he either has to be

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Speaker 2: a fired coordinator or someone's assistant that does not call

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Speaker 2: the place. I think the Eagles have a lot more

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Speaker 2: questions than answers when it comes to the offense and

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Speaker 2: comes to the quarterback. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin basically admitted,

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Speaker 2: like we're gonna have a quarterback competition, and clearly Canny

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Speaker 2: Pickett we talked about this yesterday, was mad because he

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Speaker 2: didn't talk to the media when the season ended that

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Speaker 2: obviously he got essentially benched. They didn't go back to

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Speaker 2: him when he was quote unquote healthy and readed a role.

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Speaker 2: And I don't blame I would have stuck with Mason

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Speaker 2: Rudolph as well, But I do think it brings up

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Speaker 2: a lot like the questions with Sirianni of like, you

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Speaker 2: can't roll back into the season with Kenny Pickett as

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Speaker 2: you're starting quarterback. He has not earned the right to

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Speaker 2: just be set in stone at that position now Tomlin said,

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Speaker 2: the game plan is to go with Kenny Pickett, but

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Speaker 2: with competition, so to me, they have they're a team

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Speaker 2: that I would be has Justin Field's written all over

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Speaker 2: if they can get And let's think about a team

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Speaker 2: that is willing to trade guys that they've made a

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Speaker 2: trade before with Ryan Poles where they kind of fleeced them.

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Speaker 2: I could see them trading a second or third round

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Speaker 2: pick to bring in Fields. And let's face it, I

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Speaker 2: think Justin Field is a very flawed player, but at

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Speaker 2: least what he brings to the table, I think he's

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Speaker 2: a better player than Kenny Pickett. So I would expect

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Speaker 2: to keep an eye on the Steelers and now we'll see.

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Speaker 2: The other thing Tomlin said is and I don't change

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Speaker 2: my opinion of I think it was time for a divorce,

425
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 2: but clearly they're not going to do it. Tomlin's gonna stay.

426
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 2: And I don't blame Tomlin for not wanting to leave

427
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Steelers, like I understand why he would want

428
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,679
Speaker 2: to stay. Get it fixed, but I think it's going

429
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: to be very difficult. Like, let's face it, even if

430
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: they do make a trade for Justin Fields, if I

431
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 2: go Hey, the Steelers are rolling in similar squad, Justin

432
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 2: Fields and Kenny Pickett. It's not like all of a

433
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 2: sudden you view them as like a thirteen win team.

434
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: So some of these teams man that they try to

435
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 2: band aid some of these situations of like you're just

436
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 2: kind of you just kind of spin in your wheels.

437
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 2: The Atlanta Falcons, it is going to be very, very

438
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 2: bizarre to see William Belichick in an Atlanta Falcons hoodie.

439
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 2: It really is, you know, now, I don't blame him

440
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: if that's all signs pointing they're gonna have a second

441
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 2: interview like these aren't like what are they asking Bill Belichick?

442
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 2: As most people have alluded to on social media, he's

443
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 2: interviewing them. This is always been Belichick's job to turn down.

444
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: And because the Cowboys didn't become available, the Eagles, like

445
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 2: I was described earlier, probably was never an option because

446
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 2: they don't go defense. They just weren't other opportunities that

447
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,879
Speaker 2: make more sense because if your Bill, you get a

448
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 2: couple of things. You get an owner with incredibly deep pockets,

449
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 2: you get a division that's three quarterbacks. Are Bryce Young

450
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 2: who weighs one hundred and twenty five pounds, you get

451
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 2: Derek Carr, and you get Baker Mayfield, who we think,

452
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 2: I mean, who knows, but he could end up in

453
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 2: another team and then Tampa would have no quarterback potentially,

454
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 2: who knows. Maybe they don't match the contract and they

455
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 2: draft a rookie. But it's a very quarterback friendly division

456
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 2: for a defensive head coach. And offensively, here's what I

457
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 2: promise you will happen. Some of these offensive weapons will

458
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 2: be traded this offseason. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijon Robinson,

459
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 2: one of those players in my opinion, I don't know

460
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 2: which probably makes sense. Kyle Pitts maybe he wants more

461
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: of a physical inline blocker, will be dealt so they

462
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: have assets to deal with. They have some pieces on defense,

463
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 2: and those guys, especially Drake London and John Robinson are

464
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 2: very talented. They need to be better in the trenches

465
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 2: and they just need a guy that knows what they're doing. Now.

466
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,479
Speaker 2: To me, the question is going to be, and this

467
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 2: happened with Arthur Smith, and I think we didn't question like,

468
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 2: why don't you have some superstar quarterback? Why didn't you

469
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 2: attempt to just bring in someone to beat out Desmond

470
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 2: Ridder to name him your starting quarterback. It was almost inevitable.

471
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 2: What happened happened. Like no one was shot. He was

472
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:38,919
Speaker 2: basically fired because he rolled back and played the season.

473
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 2: Now I know he benched him at multiple times, but

474
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 2: like that is what he thought was the best option,

475
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 2: which is a fireable offense. The thing with Belichick is

476
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 2: beside hitting on Brady, like the quarterback carousel has been

477
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 2: somewhat of an issue. So obviously Bill Belichick would not

478
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 2: play next season with Desmond Ritterer, But what are his options?

479
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 2: Doesn't feel like he trade for justin fields because really

480
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: he's looking for more of a game manager type, right.

481
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 2: And when I say that, it's he'd be fine with

482
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 2: a Jared Goff. You know obviously Dak Prescott like something

483
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: like that, not necessarily their stats this year, but kind

484
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 2: of what they've been throughout their career, and build up

485
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 2: the team around him. But how do you get that guy?

486
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,120
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousin's coming off in Achilles, and Belichick's not gonna

487
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 2: break the bank for an injured player. Drafting a guy

488
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 2: is always risky. I mean they did it with Mac

489
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: Jones and he got worse and worse so to me,

490
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 2: the Belichick thing, I hate the brand like Bill with

491
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: the Falcons. That's very weird. Totally understand if you're Atlanta

492
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,400
Speaker 2: going all in for him. I just wonder who's gonna

493
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 2: be the quarterback. I just wonder who is gonna be

494
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 2: the quarterback? And you know that's gonna be the most

495
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 2: fascinating thing because we've seen Bill do some weird shit.

496
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 2: He got desperate the one year when Tom left and

497
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, I had to sign Cam Newton

498
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 2: because he had no other options. The next year, he

499
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,360
Speaker 2: didn't have another quarterback because Cam Newton was any good.

500
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 2: Drafted Mac Jones fifteenth. I don't think Bill Belichick loved

501
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 2: Mac Jones in the draft. He didn't have a choice.

502
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 2: And now he's gonna go to a place that has

503
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 2: a lot going for them, just talent at different positions,

504
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 2: but they just have absolutely no answer at that position.

505
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 2: And it's not like they're drafting in the top five.

506
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 1: I don't know.

507
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a fascinating case study. You know, Belichick

508
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 2: makes the playoffs a couple of times. I think he

509
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 2: can kind of help. I wouldn't say resurrect his legacy

510
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: because his legacy is kind of set, but at least

511
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 2: take some of the stink of the last couple of

512
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: years off in New England and last but not least,

513
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 2: Mike Rabel interviewing in Seattle. If I'm Vrabel, I would

514
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 2: be very, very interested in that job, because the one

515
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 2: thing I think he needs is, like a lot of

516
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 2: good young coaches, is a general manager to rely on.

517
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 2: Like Mike, you can't be Bill And I'm not saying

518
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: he'd try to, but like clearly he wants it done

519
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 2: his way or the highway, and I think that's a

520
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 2: tough deal for the coach to attempt to, like have

521
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 2: a ton of personnel power. And I'm pro I understand

522
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 2: why Mike Bravado the ego, but part of being good

523
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: at this job is relying on other talented people. Coaches

524
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 2: do it all the time with assistant coaches. Sometimes they

525
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 2: get unwilling to do that with a personnel guy. Now,

526
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 2: I don't blame Mike for not trusting Ran Carthin. They

527
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 2: didn't know each other. The owner picked him, he didn't

528
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 2: want to pick I get that. But John Schneider knows

529
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 2: what he's doing. He's won, He's been in the league

530
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 2: for decades at multiple spots that have had success like that.

531
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 2: To me, if I'm Mike Rabel, I'm interested in that job.

532
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 2: We got some pieces, we got draft capital, I got

533
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: some skill guys. I bring Arthur Smith. You know, maybe

534
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 2: in a couple of years were consistent wildcard team. So

535
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: I've proven now the South is much easier of a

536
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: division than the NFC West with McVeigh and Kyle and

537
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: those two teams. But the NFC's not very good. Like

538
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 2: if I'm Mike Rabel, now it feels a little weird

539
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 2: Mike Rable, Seattle. If I'm John Schnider, I'll tell you this,

540
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,959
Speaker 2: I would much rather have Mike Rabel than Dan Quinn.

541
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 2: If you hire dan Quinn, it feels like you're just

542
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 2: hiring him because you kind of know him and you

543
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 2: kind of want that Pete positivity. Like we've had the

544
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 2: Pete positivity. It kind of had a shelf life. It's fine,

545
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 2: and he's pizza lead at it. But dan Quinn, like

546
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 2: I just saw his defense, they were an embarrassment like that.

547
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 2: That was pretty bad. No one had any clue what

548
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 2: was going on. It was pretty ugly, and they've had

549
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 2: some awful games this year. Defensively, So to me, if

550
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,360
Speaker 2: you're thinking defense, and I clearly John's open to whatever,

551
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: and Mike knows the deal like John would be in charge,

552
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 2: which I think is a healthy thing. Like, Bro, you

553
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 2: don't want to waste time. Andy Reid went to Kansas City,

554
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: Like I don't want to be the GM anymore. I

555
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:31,120
Speaker 2: don't want that that time commitment. That's the thing with Belichick,

556
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 2: Like ultimately Belichick gets Atlanta like he's gonna be the

557
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 2: Grand Pooba. It's like, are we gonna miss on draft

558
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 2: picks because you won't listen to any personnel. Guys like

559
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 2: Mike rely on other people, especially a guy that's proven

560
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 2: to be pretty freaking good. It'll help your career. Okay,

561
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 2: back at it again, as we head in. I counted yesterday,

562
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 2: we have seven games left, so let's all try to

563
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: really really enjoy these. And Stucky has been slinging winners

564
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 2: like in and out, slings cheeseburgers. You can hear my

565
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 2: man Action Network big bets on campus. He's all over

566
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: the place and he loved and I mean loved the

567
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay tight end. Autuen to go off, and he

568
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 2: didn't just go off. He looked like a nova check

569
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 2: in his prime out there against the Eagles, slow ass defense, stucky.

570
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 2: I was telling you before I hit a golf bet

571
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 2: made about a thousand bucks, and I was thinking, like,

572
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 2: I kind of want to roll this into one of

573
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: these games on Monday. I didn't quite trust I remember

574
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 2: we talked about the ten points. I'm glad I wouldn't

575
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 2: have liked that sweat I would have lost because I

576
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 2: would have taken the Steelers. But the night game, I'm like,

577
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, this Eagles team, they're more than

578
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 2: leaking oil. They're in fucking shambles. And I pushed out

579
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: and you knew within I would say, like three or

580
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 2: four plays, the Eagles are in trouble. Even before the

581
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 2: Bucks started, you could just feel it. And I would

582
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 2: say by the end of the first quarter that game

583
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 2: was I know, it was sixteen to nine there for

584
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: a while. The Eagles got worked.

585
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 1: Yeah that I mean what A said. They were ten

586
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 1: and one at one point. I mean I was bringing

587
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: the bell that this is team is a fraud. But

588
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: I did not see this coming. I mean, the vibes

589
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 1: around the team were so bad. Uh, and they had

590
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: a chance to hit the reset button and simply couldn't.

591
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 1: I mean just the tackling alone, some of the broken

592
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: long and they wouldn't cover anybody. I'm watching that and

593
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: the whole time and I'm just like, oh, this is good.

594
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 1: He no one's covering him. Yeah, they had one. He

595
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 1: could have an eighty R touchdown. They they split him

596
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 1: out wide and no one went with him.

597
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 2: Is he? Is he good?

598
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 1: Now?

599
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: I'd be lying if I watched that much Bucks. I

600
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: was like, this guy looks like no George k.

601
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 1: That's how every tight end looks against Eagles. I mean,

602
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 1: he's bases in the NFL. He's one of the worst,

603
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 1: the you know, one of like a bottom ten tight

604
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: end in the NFL. But if you don't cover him,

605
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: he could go off. And that's the Eagles just didn't

606
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 1: cover anybody. So uh, yeah, it was a good, good

607
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 1: betting weekend. Packers and the Texan Zone over. I promise

608
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 1: that they won't be that sweat free always if you're

609
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 1: new listening. But uh, I think that we that that over.

610
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 2: Was pretty good too. You knew about after about the

611
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 2: first two series. You're like, oh, there's gonna be a

612
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 2: lot of points scoring this bad boy.

613
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, games worked great, and I think people are our

614
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 1: fault like as far as close drama late, I think

615
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: that the a lot of people are falling in love

616
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: with the dogs that looked great last week. As far

617
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: as the going up against the one seeds, I don't

618
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: necessarily agree with that. So let's I'm excited to get

619
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: into these games though.

620
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's let's dive into it. Obviously, we kick off

621
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 2: the two to one Seeds because of the way that

622
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 2: everything broke over the weekend, are playing on Saturday. We'll

623
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 2: start with the Ravens, who you know, fucking good. There's

624
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 2: no way around it. They've kind of kicked ass all

625
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 2: season long. They're playing this Houston Texans team. Listen, the

626
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 2: quarterback is really good. Some of those plays last week though,

627
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 2: were like if you're gonna crush party for yards after

628
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 2: the catch, I mean there were some serious yards after

629
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 2: the catch. I think that division was an absolute shambles.

630
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: I mean, the Colts an all time fraud to be

631
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 2: that close to being in the playoffs. And listen, I'm

632
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 2: a bullish believer in this Texans team long term. I mean,

633
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 2: they might have the most cap space this offseason. Texas

634
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 2: no state income tax. They're gonna get free agents. They

635
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 2: still got picks. The quarterback's gonna get better. Like they're

636
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 2: a good team moving forward. I think it comes to

637
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 2: a screeching halt. And I know this line's big nine

638
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:38,719
Speaker 2: and a half. I mean, is it more likely to

639
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 2: be eight and a half nine by kickoff or more

640
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 2: likely to be ten ten and a half?

641
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: I think ten. I don't think it would go above

642
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: ten and a half. I played some Ravens minus first

643
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 1: half minus one five and a half. The Ravens, for

644
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: what it's worth, are an absolutely elite first half team.

645
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson first half against the spreader's career fifty to

646
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 1: twenty five two sixty seven percent, most profitable quarterback NFL

647
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: history in the first half. And Harball is the most

648
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,239
Speaker 1: profitable coach in the first half against the spread one

649
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: hundred and forty eight one or three eight against spread

650
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent. And now you can say, well, they've

651
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: been together a lot. Well, if you remove Lamar Jackson,

652
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: Harball is still one of the most profitable first half

653
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 1: against spread coaches in NFL history. He's like, for example,

654
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: he seven to two against the spread in the first

655
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: half when when Tyler Huntley starts. Two reasons for both

656
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: of those things. Ravens usually well prepared team, especially this year.

657
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: I mean the time off year, the extra preparation. Their

658
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: coordinators are so good and every week during the year,

659
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: especially McDonald like he has a great game plan. And

660
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: they already saw the Texans, so I think that the buye.

661
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 1: You know, not only are they healthier, Look, you're getting

662
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 1: Mark Andrews back. The Texans have a bunch of injuries

663
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 1: on their defense. Their wide receiver room is basically just

664
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: down Nico Collins. Noah Brown went on, are you don't

665
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 1: have Tank Dell. But the time off helps a lot.

666
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: And then teams aren't used to Lamar's speed early, and

667
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 1: that's you know, unless you're like the Steelers, Bengals, Browns

668
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: that see them all the time. It's it's something that

669
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: you have to adjust to. So the Ravens usually can

670
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 1: get out to a fast start. But yeah, so I'd

671
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: prefer the first half a little bit because I think

672
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 1: that coordinator preparation advantage and sometimes the Ravens they play

673
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:18,919
Speaker 1: with their food a little bit in the second half.

674
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:21,919
Speaker 1: Let teams back in and I could see Stroud being down,

675
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: like you know, fourteen late and they get a back door.

676
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: But I would lean Ravens for the full game. I'm

677
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: probably gonna play some of that too at under ten,

678
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 1: but I played first half. It's also a really good

679
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 1: matchup in the sense that Lamar Jackson has been elite

680
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 1: against zone this year. I mean he absolutely destroys it,

681
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: completing seventy percent of his passes zo point one epa

682
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: per drop back fifty one percent success rate. He also

683
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: scrambles more and more successfully against zone, and the Texans

684
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 1: are heavy zone defense and they don't blitz, and that's

685
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,399
Speaker 1: really how you can kind of try to throw Lamar off.

686
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 1: So he's just carved up zone. And a lot of

687
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 1: people think, oh, if you play man, then that's when

688
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 1: the quarterback will scribble. That's true, but not with Lamar.

689
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 1: Like it doesn't matter if you're playing zone and you

690
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 1: got a line by who can Lamar's is gonna run

691
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 1: right by him. So he's just ripped up zone all year.

692
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 1: And like I said, this is an elite Ravens defense

693
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 1: that can get pressure. They're gonna and they mix up

694
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 1: their game play depending on who they're playing. Figure to

695
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 1: see a little bit more man, but some disguise looks,

696
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: you know, some different pressures, and Shroud just hasn't been

697
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 1: the same quarterback against man or when he's under pressure.

698
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 1: So I think he's gonna Yeah, I love Stroud, He's

699
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 1: been amazing, but I think he's gonna probably make a

700
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: couple key mistakes here. It's also an indoor team plays

701
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 1: in a dome. Going outdoors gonna be frigid temperatures. And

702
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 1: if you look at what you mentioned the division, which

703
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: is a key point because and by the way, Ravens

704
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: is better best special teams as well, which matter in

705
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:51,240
Speaker 1: the playoffs. If you look at the the Texans schedule

706
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: this year, they faced one you just go by EPA

707
00:35:55,120 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 1: on offense, one top ten offense, the Ravens in Week one.

708
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: That's it.

709
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: They lost twenty five to nine. And that was the

710
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 1: Ravens in an offense brand new steam, first game of

711
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: the year. If you go EPA quarterbacks top seventeen, the

712
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: quarterbacks to finished in the top seventeen this year, they

713
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 1: faced two Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. That's it. I mean,

714
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 1: this is a deep and now this defense is you know,

715
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: Anderson and good Arder banged up. They lost some guys

716
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 1: in the secondary. They faced nobody.

717
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: All year and didn't didn't both those guys. I mean

718
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 2: the week one throw out, but Baker Mayfield had a

719
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 2: big day gainst it.

720
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, scored thirty seven. The final score that was thirty

721
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: eight thirty seven. They got ripped apart. And then you know,

722
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: the only quarter over the last ten games, the only

723
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: playoff quarterback they faced was Baker was Joe Flacco, and

724
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 1: Flacco put up thirty eight in Houston one game, and

725
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 1: then you know, obviously threw his picks last week. But

726
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:56,959
Speaker 1: that's it. Like they have not faced elite offenses, so

727
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: I think they're in for I mean, this is a

728
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: huge successful season for Houston. Anything should happen. It's one

729
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: football game. I mean the Ravens not get I saw

730
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 1: it back in twenty nineteen with the Titans, and Titans

731
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 1: are a little better than their defense was better, but

732
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 1: Raidons could fumble three times, they could go zero for

733
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: five and fourth down things can happen. But the Raids

734
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 1: are a much better team on defense. It's a good

735
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 1: matchup with the offense, and the Texans just aren't healthy,

736
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: going outdoors, less time to prepare. I think you get

737
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: a fully focused Ravens' effort here. I think they jump

738
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: out on them early and that spells bad news. But

739
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,240
Speaker 1: I played Baltimore first half.

740
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 2: I like that. Okay, the night game, I said yesterday

741
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,800
Speaker 2: on the podcast, I think when you look at the

742
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 2: the playoff pressure, I think there is more on Brock

743
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,800
Speaker 2: and Kyle than any other team. Harbaugh's already won one

744
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 2: and they have Lamar on your contract right now in

745
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 2: the peak of his power. So obviously they don't win

746
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 2: a Super Bowl this year, it hurts, but they're gonna

747
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 2: be one of the favorites coming in next year. Same

748
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 2: thing with the Bills. Right, they feel like they have

749
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 2: a little more pressure in the Ravens because their coach

750
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 2: is probably on less solid ground, But they have one

751
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 2: of the most talented players in NFL history, that's their

752
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 2: quarterback under contract. Right, the Niners, like, can Kyle win

753
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,479
Speaker 2: a big game? I mean, I don't know. He can't

754
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 2: win when he's behind. Historically the number speak for himself

755
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 2: and their quarterback. Let's let's face it, Like I think

756
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 2: is good. But I've seen Kyle pivot off guys and

757
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 2: the ship changes fast as the NFL, So I now

758
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 2: I like him a lot. In this game, Joe Barry,

759
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan, good fucking luck to the Packers. And I

760
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: think the defense for the forty nine ers like Jordan

761
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 2: Love Let's face it, he's he's been incredible. I mean,

762
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 2: he made some throws last week. If you take out

763
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 2: some of the easy ones, they look like Rogers are far.

764
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 2: But I do think this is going to be a

765
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 2: very very tough matchup. And honestly, the Niners, you know,

766
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 2: they're a huge favorite in this game. What's the line

767
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 2: next week if they played Detroit six seven?

768
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:59,320
Speaker 1: So yep, not that big, except they'll probably be auch touchdown,

769
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: touchdown favorit.

770
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 2: So you get back to back weeks, we're a huge favorite.

771
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 2: Let's just assume they win those games. They're gonna be

772
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 2: judged simply on like what does it look like against

773
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 2: the Ravens or the Bills? Right? Can you beat like that?

774
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 2: That's gonna be like there, how often are you playing

775
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,879
Speaker 2: the NFC championship game or excuse me, the divisional round

776
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 2: and then the uh and then the championship game with

777
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 2: a combined like you know, multiple you know, touchdown at

778
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 2: each game, Like that's I'm sorry, Like you should win

779
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 2: those games. It's gonna come obviously to me. I hope

780
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 2: they see the Ravens uh. And I think the Packers,

781
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 2: which have had a lot like the Texas, same same story,

782
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,440
Speaker 2: you know, an incredible season, but I think it's it's

783
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: a different level.

784
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 1: Now I agree. I like the Niners here and think

785
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:43,399
Speaker 1: about it.

786
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 2: Do you agree with me on the pressure stuff?

787
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I say Labar has pressure on him. He has

788
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: a playoff win. So Lamar has pressure on him, not

789
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 1: in the sense of like what's gonna happen to the organization,

790
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 1: but just the questions that he'd have to answers.

791
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 2: Like Peyton in the peak of his power something. Are

792
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:01,879
Speaker 2: you ever gonna get it done?

793
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 1: You can't if you know, if he has a bad

794
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 1: game and Josh Josh too. Yeah yeah, but if he

795
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 1: has a bad game and doesn't win another playoff get

796
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 1: and like losing the first round at home, there will

797
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 1: be questions. Some warrant it. But yeah, I I agree

798
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 1: with you, But I just think, yeah, I like the

799
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 1: nine Ers year. I mean, and I think got they

800
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 1: actually could be seven and a half eight point favorites

801
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 1: maybe against Detroit. I think this line should be over ten.

802
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 1: I think there's some recency bias here just from what

803
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: everyone saw green Bay sort of like Houston last week.

804
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 1: But you know, I went into last week and I

805
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 1: was saying, the Browns are what have the Browns done?

806
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 1: They beat a bunch of backup quarterbacks, so the you know,

807
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 1: it was a great story, but their defense was all hurt.

808
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 1: And then the Packers they beat this this Cowboys and

809
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 1: that's a front runner, and when they get behind and

810
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: they're a disaster and they got out coached, out schemed.

811
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,279
Speaker 1: So yeah, Love has been amazing, and they in order

812
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 1: to win this game, he's gonna have to, you know,

813
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: be Pete Brady and there he's gonna have to throw

814
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:03,760
Speaker 1: for like four twenty and be close to perfect, because

815
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 1: I don't think he could do that. He's been great,

816
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: but I mean, let's also look at some of the

817
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 1: competition he's faced down the stretch. And you know, the

818
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 1: Niners defense, people forget, has been very good all year.

819
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 1: And they're gonna get you know, green Law, They're gonna

820
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 1: get a armstead back and go fully healthy defensive line.

821
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: Now they should be able to get some pressure. So

822
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 1: but the biggest mismatch in this game and don't and

823
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,959
Speaker 1: don't forget the Packers special teams if this game is close,

824
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,359
Speaker 1: are horrendous or the worst special teams in the league.

825
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 1: They don't even a kicker they can trust. The biggest

826
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 1: mismatches game is there is I do not see a

827
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 1: path where the Packers can stop the Niners. I mean,

828
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: you look, Niners a lot of inside outside zone, so

829
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:45,800
Speaker 1: they run. Packer is one of the worst defenses in

830
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 1: the league defending that the you know they can't you

831
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 1: Packers play that cover three Niners party rips that apart.

832
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 1: Packers can't cover the slot, middle of the field, can't

833
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 1: cover backs out of the backfield or tight ends. I mean, look,

834
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 1: good problem for ferguson device we get three touchdowns. Yeah,

835
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 1: it's a ProAb against the Niners. It's sort of like

836
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:05,879
Speaker 1: what the Eagles. The problem the Eagles have Now it's

837
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 1: not gonna go well against the forty nine ers. And

838
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 1: then this is a big number. But for what it's worth,

839
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 1: usually there's you know, in the NFL playoffs, there's a

840
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 1: big number for a reason. They've going back twenty years,

841
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 1: I think got double digit favorites in the playoffs are

842
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 1: sixteen and nine against the spread, or I should say

843
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 1: twenty five years, so they've been good against the spread.

844
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 1: But there's just I just don't see how they get stops.

845
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: This Packers d has been horrendous ally. They gave up

846
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 1: thirty to the Panthers. It I mean it took it

847
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: would take the Panthers seven games to get the thirty points.

848
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 1: So this defense is very vulnerable. And the other reason

849
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: why I don't mind laying a big number here is

850
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 1: sometimes when and it hasn't been the case as much

851
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 1: this year, but sometimes when Shanahan gets up, we'll go

852
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 1: a little conservative and then then it leads the back

853
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 1: door open. And you know they used to not the

854
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 1: Niners used to never cover big numbers because of that.

855
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: But Niners get up and then they just say, Okay,

856
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 1: let's run it more. That'll work. That'll work against the

857
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 1: Packers defense. He can just run it up and down

858
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:09,720
Speaker 1: the field. One of the reasons I'd like the Packers

859
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 1: because the Coyles couldn't run it all year, inefficient running

860
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 1: the ball. Now you're going up against the best rushing

861
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 1: offense the NFL, and it's it's Shanahan with a couple

862
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 1: weeks to repair versus Joe Barry. I mean, that is

863
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: the biggest mismatch of the weekend. So I just don't

864
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 1: see how the Packers get stops. You're you know, you're

865
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 1: talking about a bottom five to tennis defense and the

866
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 1: forty nine ers have a top five defense. They're just

867
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 1: gonna get a couple more stops and that's all it's

868
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: gonna come down to. And that's assuming Love has been

869
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 1: it will continue to be as good as he has been.

870
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 1: He could easily have an off game here, throw a

871
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 1: couple of picks and then this is, you know, thirty

872
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 1: eight thirteen. But this is this reminds me of all

873
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 1: the Packers old. You know, instead of Rogers, you you

874
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: have Love who's played well, but he's not as proven.

875
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: But it's the same thing like when the Packers used

876
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 1: to play the Niners in big games in the playoffs.

877
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 2: They remember the nineteen season in twenty and Moster had

878
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 2: like seven hundred yards against them.

879
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 1: It's yeah, I don't it's I'm getting I have days.

880
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: It's basically the same thing that I'm saying, just with

881
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:14,919
Speaker 1: different players. And Shanahan's still there. Yeah, this same coach.

882
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 1: But yeah, I just I just don't see how the

883
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: Packers will get stops here, So yeah, love, if he

884
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 1: has the game of his life, that's what they're gonna

885
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 1: have to do. They have to keep up or just

886
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 1: hope for Flukes. Obviously, whenever I break these games out,

887
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 1: you can just have to tumbles and yeah, but Andy,

888
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,399
Speaker 1: I just don't see how. I mean, Yeah, McCaffrey could

889
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: end up playing quarterback. And if that's the case, and

890
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: the Packers are yeah, going to NFC championship. But yeah,

891
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 1: I like the Niners here. Anything under ten, I'll be

892
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: betting them minus nine and a half.

893
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 2: Okay, we're an agreement, Ravens Niners. Then the Sunday gets good.

894
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 2: I thought this when you watch the Bucks when Baker

895
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 2: was playing well, and I remember when they were playing

896
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, Like they do have good players,

897
00:44:55,040 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 2: right like Winfield White, Vitevea obviously worse Godwin Evans. Even

898
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 2: the running back White is a good player, Like he's

899
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 2: just a good little scap back. So it's like they

900
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:11,279
Speaker 2: have proven, veteran, high end guys that would start for

901
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 2: every team in the NFL. And if he's gonna play now,

902
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 2: you're not playing the Eagles defense most weeks, even though

903
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 2: the Lions pass defense is more than questionable. And the

904
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 2: Buccaneers don't even want to run if they can't, so

905
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 2: like a good run defense. Who cares? But like that

906
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 2: version of Baker is like a pretty solid quarterback. And

907
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 2: to me, their defense Todd Bowles. Uh. And again the

908
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 2: Eagles were kind of in shambles. This is a different

909
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: animal with the with the Lions, I do think this

910
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 2: game could just be a little weird, like like probably

911
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:43,760
Speaker 2: most people. I like the Lions, but uh, not trying

912
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 2: to overreact too much of the Eagles game. But I

913
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 2: do respect a lot of guys on this Bucks team

914
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 2: that have been a part of a lot of big

915
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 2: wins over the last three years.

916
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 1: With Tom Yeah, I I like to I'm waiting to

917
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 1: see the seven. There's a seven and uh, I think this.

918
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 1: I like the I like the bust lines a little

919
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 1: too high and one of the things that gives me confidence.

920
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 1: The thing that I actually did bet in this game

921
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 1: is not Kate Oughton, but I bet Chris a bunch

922
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 1: of Chris Godwin props. My favorite was over twenty and

923
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: a half longest receptions, but I also played it over

924
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: catches over yards. The main reason is and it's one

925
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: of the reasons of confident in the Bucks here is

926
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:20,720
Speaker 1: last week they came out against the Eagles, who couldn't

927
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: cover anybody. And the Bucks sometimes have proclivity to, you know,

928
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 1: I'm gonna we're gonna run it too much on first

929
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 1: and second down, and they haven't been a great rushing offense.

930
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: Their their line is not good or run blocking, and

931
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:34,880
Speaker 1: they're just inefficient. They did this more with who was

932
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 1: the left, which was when he's the corner, but they

933
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: still did it a little bit too much this year.

934
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 1: They came out last week, you know, against the Eagles

935
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 1: team we can't cover anybody, and they just came out

936
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,439
Speaker 1: and they threw it all over seventy five percent neutral

937
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 1: pass right. So that gives me confidence this week. The

938
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 1: lines run these very good all year. They're past these

939
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 1: horrendous and when they played the Lions earlier this season,

940
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 1: they only scored six points. I watched that entire game.

941
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 1: It's nineteen six. Baker Mayfield. He threw thirty three percent

942
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 1: of his passes twenty or more yards down the field,

943
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 1: which is as high as you'll ever see in an

944
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 1: NFL game. He missed. He just had one of his

945
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: awful Baker games. There was two or three eighty yard legit,

946
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 1: eighty yard touchdowns he missed, just missed. One got tipped.

947
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 1: The other he just missed him. And they were guys

948
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: wide open down the field and you just had it

949
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: off day, so I think and in that game they

950
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 1: came out and threw it. Last week they said we're

951
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 1: gonna come out and throw it. That is how you

952
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 1: have to attack this Detroit team.

953
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 2: But he was really on like last week, even the

954
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 2: one Evans dropped like he was he was in the

955
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 2: hands in stride, he was dialed.

956
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:39,479
Speaker 1: Yep, yeah, he was on. But I'm just saying that game,

957
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 1: like if you go back and just say, oh wait,

958
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:43,439
Speaker 1: they don't bind the bucks on and scored six points

959
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 1: against the lines in the first matchup, it so misleading

960
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, very like there was wide open guys,

961
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,400
Speaker 1: so you have to throw against Detroit. So now I'm

962
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: confident after what I saw last week. But I saw

963
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 1: in the first matchup is they understand the assignment and

964
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 1: what you're gonna have is they the yan zev. Yeah,

965
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 1: our secondary is very bad, but they Sutton's who's not good,

966
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 1: but he's like replacement level. They they might use, they

967
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 1: use them as a shadow sometimes, so they might put

968
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: him on Evans. If not, he'll be on the right side.

969
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:13,359
Speaker 1: There's a chance they just shadow Evans, which means you're

970
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 1: gonna have wild or this kid out Georgia Sutton. He's horrendous.

971
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: He's giving up twenty two point eight yards per reception.

972
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 1: If you look at one hundred and fifty corners who've

973
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: had at least one hundred snaps, the next worst is

974
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 1: seventeen yards. He's giving up six yards more. I mean, see,

975
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 1: if you remember that Ceedee Lamb was burning him. If

976
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 1: you watch the Cowboys, he gets toasted. He is not

977
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: He should not be out there. They tried Jacobs, they

978
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 1: tried a bunch of guys they just have He's in

979
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 1: there by default, like they just were try this guy,

980
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 1: try this guy, try this guy, and at the very

981
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 1: end of the season, all right, you're in and they

982
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 1: haven't changed. But he's horrendous. So he's gonna be on

983
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,720
Speaker 1: the left side, or he's gonna be following around Godwin,

984
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 1: and Godwin mainly lines up on the right. He's lining

985
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 1: up in the slot less and less, so over the

986
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:58,399
Speaker 1: past three weeks, I think he's gonna be out there

987
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 1: and he's gonna have ample opportunities to hit a big play.

988
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: At least I think he's got a huge day. But

989
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:06,840
Speaker 1: twenty and a half is as long as reception builder.

990
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 1: Twenty two and a half is his average reception allowed.

991
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 1: So I like Godwin have a big day, and then

992
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 1: the Bucks are gonna blitz a lot. So Bulls does

993
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 1: golf can fall off against the blitz. You know, he's

994
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:20,319
Speaker 1: vulnerable in that sense, so they can maybe force him

995
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 1: into mistakes. You know, it is indoor golf at home

996
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: or is much better. But if Bowles comes up with

997
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:27,359
Speaker 1: some good blitz schemes here, that's whom you can really

998
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 1: throw off GoF. So yeah, I think seven is too many.

999
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 1: But I like Godwin and because of aten last week,

1000
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: that huge game, the line's safetyse linebackers, the scale, they

1001
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 1: got to be like, all right, we got to pay

1002
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:41,359
Speaker 1: a little bit more attention to him, maybe open up

1003
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:44,239
Speaker 1: some things for Godwin. But there's paths to move the

1004
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 1: ball on this line's defense if they come out and throw,

1005
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: and I think they will, so I think this will

1006
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 1: be an entertaining game, And I agree, I think it'll

1007
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 1: get weird.

1008
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 2: Do you think there is upset money line potential here,

1009
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:58,839
Speaker 2: or we overreacting a little bit from last week. Sure,

1010
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 2: I mean this is this is probably because it's it's

1011
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 2: not inconceivable, but it's hard to see an upset happening

1012
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 2: on Saturday. And I would even call Chiefs Bills. I

1013
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 2: know one team's an underdog, Like, let's face it, those

1014
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 2: are just that's a fucking coin flip game. Yep, right, yea,

1015
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 2: Like this is this would be a true underdog on

1016
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:20,759
Speaker 2: the road back to back weeks, like they were a

1017
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: legit underdog against the Eagles. It was the right call.

1018
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 2: Turns out like looking back, like the Eagles were an

1019
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:28,799
Speaker 2: all time implosion team. But this is one of those

1020
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:30,919
Speaker 2: that remember that one time the forty nine ers played

1021
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 2: the Bucks in the NFC Championship and favored by fourteen points. Yeah,

1022
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 2: it's not crazy in five years we're bullshitting' about that, right, yep? Yeah,

1023
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:39,760
Speaker 2: I mean that was a Lion's first playoff victory.

1024
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 1: The other here's the other things.

1025
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 2: You know, sometimes like in college, when you have a

1026
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 2: big upset and you just like take down Bama or

1027
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 2: you take in Ohio State and the next week you lose,

1028
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 2: You're like, how did you just lose the fucking Rutgers. Well,

1029
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:55,400
Speaker 2: it's because Iowa. They celebrated all week long. Could that

1030
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 2: happen a little bit here? You know, even Dan they

1031
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,439
Speaker 2: were celebrating like they won the NFC champion game.

1032
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree. And then you also have Yah,

1033
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,800
Speaker 1: you also have it just emotionally, are you just a

1034
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 1: little less sharp?

1035
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:10,719
Speaker 2: There was a lot into that game. They played a

1036
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 2: tight game that was an intense playoff game. Yeah, and

1037
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 2: you also have I might I might sprinkle the Bucks.

1038
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:19,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it. And then you have Campbell.

1039
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:21,720
Speaker 1: If what do you want to take an underdog money

1040
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 1: line in this range? You want the variants. So Campbell's

1041
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:31,400
Speaker 1: aggressiveness is creates variants. So you know, going for all

1042
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 1: the fourth downs is going to go to if you

1043
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 1: don't get a couple. That just introduces a lot of

1044
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 1: variants in this game. It's one of the things I

1045
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 1: don't like about the Bucks in this game is that

1046
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 1: I think both offenses have advantages, but Balls is super conservative.

1047
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 1: So like this game could flip on the fact that,

1048
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 1: you know, first quarter, if the lines have fourth and

1049
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 1: one of the thirty eight and they go for it

1050
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 1: and then they get a touchdown, and then the Bucks

1051
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:57,919
Speaker 1: have fourth and down seven off of fourth and two

1052
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: if the forty three and Bowls punts it. But we

1053
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:04,359
Speaker 1: know Campbe's gonna in experience into the game. I think

1054
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 1: the Bucks are gonna move the ball. I think there's

1055
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 1: a potential they can come up with a good blitz

1056
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 1: scheme here that throws Golf off. And uh yeah, I

1057
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocked at least. I think this will be

1058
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 1: a close game.

1059
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 2: Okay, night game. I mean, I don't even know what

1060
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 2: to say. I guess the only thing is I would

1061
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 2: struggle betting against Andy and Mahomes. Like I understand they

1062
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 2: can lose, and they're bound to lose one of these games.

1063
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: It happened to them a couple of years ago at

1064
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,280
Speaker 2: home when they were a better team to the Bengals,

1065
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,320
Speaker 2: which actually aids pretty well because it turns out the

1066
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 2: Bengals are pretty good. Yeah, but like I just if

1067
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 2: they're gonna lose, fine, I just would struggle having money,

1068
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 2: you know, with the other team, as they're the you know,

1069
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 2: the underdog getting points with those two guys.

1070
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the Chiefs have a couple of advantages

1071
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 1: here in that just on the surface that they have

1072
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 1: two extra days of prep. You Bills kind of got

1073
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 1: screwed that they're the two. They're the two seed playing

1074
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:00,399
Speaker 1: the three seed, and they have two extra two fewer

1075
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,640
Speaker 1: days because the game got moved and they played a

1076
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 1: day later already. And the Bills that have a bunch

1077
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: of injuries, they because in that game, they have a

1078
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 1: bunch of injuries. I today's injury report is gonna be huge.

1079
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:14,959
Speaker 1: But like at linebacker, cornerback, who's gonna end up playing

1080
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 1: for them? So I can't bet this game right now.

1081
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 1: I got to see if they have like a cluster.

1082
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 2: Of they've lost like a guy a game it feels

1083
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:22,440
Speaker 2: like for like two months, like them and the Dolphins.

1084
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then if it's cluster like they like the

1085
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 1: three of their cornerbacks got hurt. Two of their linebackers

1086
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:31,760
Speaker 1: were banged up, so that can matter. Now I will say,

1087
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 1: you know, I think three is the perfect number on

1088
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:36,319
Speaker 1: this game, depending on the injuries, which is where it's

1089
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 1: at now. The Chiefs, I mean, look, I'm not who.

1090
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 1: I don't care that they beat the you know, the

1091
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 1: the Dolphins practice squad in the Igloo last.

1092
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 4: Week the all year and by the way, the Chiefs

1093
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 4: This is pretty crazy the Chiefs. The Dolphins are the

1094
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 4: only playoff team the Chiefs beat all year. It's pretty

1095
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 4: wild they'd beat a single other playoff team and they

1096
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 4: didn't look good.

1097
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:07,440
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, because they lost. They lost to the Eagles,

1098
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 1: they lost to the Bills.

1099
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 2: Their division sucked.

1100
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, their division was awful. They lost the Packers and

1101
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:20,839
Speaker 1: so yeah, which which is a shocking nugget. The one

1102
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:22,560
Speaker 1: thing that where I think this game, if I had

1103
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:26,000
Speaker 1: to pick who's gonna win this game, it depends on

1104
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 1: that Bill's injuries. But the Bills are relatively healthy on defense,

1105
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 1: you know, because this Chiefs offense has not looked good

1106
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 1: all year. Now, it's still Mahomes. You're the best quarterback

1107
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 1: on the planet. So if anyone wants to take the points,

1108
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:39,280
Speaker 1: you take three points in the Homes. Who's like eighteen

1109
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:41,400
Speaker 1: three and one against the spread as an underdog or

1110
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:42,439
Speaker 1: favorite of three or least.

1111
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 2: But is there is there like right now, given who

1112
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 2: he's playing with, is there a difference between him and

1113
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 2: Josh Allen with you mean from a gambling perspective, Like

1114
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 2: to me, it's like I view them both as equals.

1115
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're I would Mahomes is probably a little hot,

1116
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:03,879
Speaker 1: a little weighted, a little more important. I mean, from

1117
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 1: a points of re perspective, Mahomes would be more important,

1118
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 1: just marginally, like to the drop off, because he doesn't

1119
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:12,799
Speaker 1: have as much weapons and you're you're also relying on

1120
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 1: Allen's legs. But the biggest I think advantage in this

1121
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 1: game is the Chiefs defense, which is remarkably improved this year.

1122
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:26,280
Speaker 1: Very good against the pass, very good against great pressure.

1123
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:30,400
Speaker 1: They're still horrendous against the run. Twenty seven against the

1124
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 1: run DVOA justif forer opponent. So and the Bills have

1125
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:37,400
Speaker 1: turned from since Joe Brady took over it off its coordinator.

1126
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 1: They had the eighth highest pass rate now since then,

1127
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 1: since week ten, since Brady took over dead last. So

1128
00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:49,120
Speaker 1: they are now the most run heavy team in the NFL,

1129
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 1: believe it or not with Josh Allen. So if you

1130
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 1: go back, do they come out here and you know,

1131
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 1: the best defense against Mahomes is keep him off the field,

1132
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 1: and the best way to attack the Chiefs is to

1133
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:07,760
Speaker 1: run on them. Do the Bills say, let's Dallas Cowboys

1134
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:10,840
Speaker 1: this game that game where they just came out and

1135
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 1: they used Allen's legs, They fed Cook and they just

1136
00:56:14,480 --> 00:56:19,040
Speaker 1: ran it and ran it some more down Dallas's throat.

1137
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:22,280
Speaker 1: And there's some similarities with the Chiefs defense to Dallas' defense.

1138
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:24,400
Speaker 1: You can run on Kansas City. That might be the

1139
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:28,799
Speaker 1: biggest That might be the biggest advantage of this game,

1140
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 1: because when he comes to the Chiefs like that, there's

1141
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:33,840
Speaker 1: just not Their tackles are bad, which is one thing

1142
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 1: that people don't talk a lot about, but both their

1143
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:38,920
Speaker 1: tackles are bad, so that's hurt their offense. And the

1144
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 1: Bills can get a lot of pressure off the edge

1145
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 1: without blitzing, which is key because you can't blitz my homes.

1146
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 1: The Dolphins had no players last week, you know, they

1147
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 1: had no edge, no islander, so they were going to

1148
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:50,040
Speaker 1: cover zero blitz and you just can't do that against mahomes.

1149
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:52,920
Speaker 1: But the Bills don't blitz and they can get pressure.

1150
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,120
Speaker 1: That's key number one against THEMS, otherwise you don't have

1151
00:56:55,160 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 1: a shot. And because the Chiefs tackles are bad, you

1152
00:56:58,200 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 1: know they're gonna be able to get pressure at homes.

1153
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,399
Speaker 1: And then the second problem is their weapons are bad

1154
00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 1: or she Rice has played really well lately. If for

1155
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 1: Seuell Douglas plays I think he is gonna play, but

1156
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 1: it didn't play last week. McDermot say, he's close. He's

1157
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 1: their top corner by far. You know, you could put

1158
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 1: him on Rice and then you have good safeties and

1159
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:17,200
Speaker 1: good linebackers meet their healthy. Again, these are all caveats,

1160
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 1: but you can just bracket Kelsey and Kelsey is not

1161
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 1: the same player still. You know, he's still probably gonna

1162
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 1: be eight catches for seventy yards, but he's not the

1163
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 1: same explosive player. And then your other like your other

1164
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 1: options are. You know, it's just underwhelming. So that's why

1165
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 1: this Chiefs offense. It's like bad protection. You know, the

1166
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 1: weapons aren't great, so going on the road. But you know,

1167
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 1: look short week now for Buffalo, they have injuries on defense.

1168
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 1: I you know, at the end of the day, I

1169
00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 1: think Buffalo will win, but it will be a close game.

1170
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 1: It's Bill's Chiefs. It'll be weird. And if I had

1171
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 1: a you know, the most fitting thing that could happen

1172
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 1: is we change the overtime rules in the NFL because

1173
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 1: when these two last two teams, but in that yeah world,

1174
00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 1: and now both teams even if you score a touchdown,

1175
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 1: the other team has to get a ball we have

1176
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:07,400
Speaker 1: not seen an overtime game since then, so we have

1177
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 1: not seen an overtime game with the new rules. I'm

1178
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 1: very curious see what the team that wins the coin

1179
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 1: tossut because mathematically you should defer. Believe it or not,

1180
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 1: you should wait.

1181
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 2: So wait. So in the regular season it was still

1182
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 2: if you score a touchdown, first game ends. But in

1183
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 2: the playoffs, every both teams get to touch the ball. Yeah, uh,

1184
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 2: no matter what, no matter why I score a touchdown

1185
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 2: my first drive, I still get the ball. Obviously I

1186
00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 2: got a match.

1187
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 1: Yep, you got a match, and then from there two scores. Mathematically,

1188
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 1: now it depends a little bit. Depends on the game

1189
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 1: that you should kick defer and then you know, they

1190
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:42,680
Speaker 1: you can get a stop, you know, and then or

1191
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 1: you could yeah, and then get a field to win,

1192
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 1: or they could kick a field goal, then you can

1193
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 1: get a touch on the winner or field goal, you know,

1194
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:51,160
Speaker 1: make that. It wouldn't work out if they went eighty

1195
00:58:51,200 --> 00:58:52,840
Speaker 1: yards down the field and score touchdown, But how often

1196
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 1: does that happen? And they're playing, they're not playing to

1197
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 1: knowing they have to score. So you know, it's a

1198
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:00,440
Speaker 1: lot of good game theory there. But we haven't seen

1199
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:04,880
Speaker 1: an overtime game since so and the Bills have lost

1200
00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:08,440
Speaker 1: like eight straight overtime gas. It would be absolutely hysterical

1201
00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 1: and fitting if this game goes to overtime. The Bills

1202
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 1: win the toss, the Bills get the ball, they could

1203
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 1: out and score a touchdown, and then the Chiefs thedn't

1204
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:24,720
Speaker 1: get the answer like the Bills couldn't. So I think

1205
00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 1: this game's gonna go wed anyone that I don't think,

1206
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:29,880
Speaker 1: I'm good to bet it. But any I have a

1207
00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:32,040
Speaker 1: fifty to one Bills futures, I'll be rooting for the Bills.

1208
00:59:32,080 --> 00:59:33,959
Speaker 1: But anyone that just says, look, I'm gonna take three

1209
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:38,360
Speaker 1: with Mons, I won't argue with you for one second.

1210
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 2: The prop I love in this game, a buddy of

1211
00:59:42,080 --> 00:59:44,800
Speaker 2: mine kind of send it to me, and I'm looking

1212
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 2: at it right now. In DraftKings, you can get over

1213
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 2: under Josh Allen rush attempts at nine and a half.

1214
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 2: The over is basically plus one one to one. I

1215
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:55,640
Speaker 2: you know, you look back, he's been between like ten

1216
00:59:55,680 --> 00:59:58,400
Speaker 2: and twelve. But this is the game where you know

1217
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 2: some of those passing attempts, if they're cover, he's gonna

1218
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 2: take off they're gonna have some design runs, lots of

1219
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 2: yardage stuff. If you tell me he has thirteen fourteen carries,

1220
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 2: it's very, very believable in this game. I like, I

1221
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 2: love that.

1222
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:13,000
Speaker 1: Actually I like the other two. Yeah, I think they're

1223
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:14,480
Speaker 1: gonna go. I mean they, like I just said, they've

1224
01:00:14,480 --> 01:00:18,000
Speaker 1: been the most run heavy team in the league since

1225
01:00:18,040 --> 01:00:22,440
Speaker 1: Joe Brady took over. And yeah, you're gonna get number one.

1226
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:26,600
Speaker 1: When you have elite quarterbacks in general, their rush attempts

1227
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:29,600
Speaker 1: go up in the playoffs. But yeah, obviously the game

1228
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:31,120
Speaker 1: up a lot. With more on the line, you're more

1229
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:33,680
Speaker 1: willing to run. You see that with Mahomes, you see

1230
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 1: that with Burrow. So you're gonna get you get increased

1231
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 1: run rush attempts by any elite quarterback in the playoffs,

1232
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:43,880
Speaker 1: any quarterback in general too. But in this game in particular,

1233
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 1: with this new rush attack, and that's the way you

1234
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:51,040
Speaker 1: attack this Chiefs defense, I mean, you're gonna have you

1235
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 1: probably have like four or five, you know, just scrambles.

1236
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 1: You also have to keep in mind the sneaks they do.

1237
01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 1: They sneak third and fourth and one now now and

1238
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:03,360
Speaker 1: it's almost automatic. With Alan, I know, you got to

1239
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:05,960
Speaker 1: stop at one time, but I called the Buffalo bulldoz.

1240
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 1: It's a new field, so there's are rush attempts. You

1241
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 1: could have four of them in one drive, and then

1242
01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:19,000
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, you could have five or six designed runs.

1243
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 2: And I'll take off on a couple of past plays.

1244
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:25,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh yeah, then five or six scrambles for some sneaks,

1245
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 1: you know, some nils. So yeah, it's I like that too.

1246
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 2: Who would the Ravens rather play?

1247
01:01:34,200 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 1: I think that's a good question. But I so I

1248
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 1: have a I'm a Ravens fan, so I think I

1249
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 1: would rather play. I think I would rather play the Chiefs,

1250
01:01:48,640 --> 01:01:53,520
Speaker 1: which is awful sakes, it's Mahomes, but they just haven't

1251
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:58,640
Speaker 1: been right all year and they they cannot stop the run,

1252
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 1: like our defense would just get so much pressure on them.

1253
01:02:03,000 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 1: And we have the personnel. It's like we have the

1254
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:07,400
Speaker 1: linebackers and safety six which just remove Kelsey from the game,

1255
01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:10,120
Speaker 1: and then we have we have the corners. You just

1256
01:02:10,160 --> 01:02:11,680
Speaker 1: have to take out Rice and then we could bring

1257
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:19,040
Speaker 1: all kinds of pressure without blitzing. So and yeah, it's close,

1258
01:02:19,600 --> 01:02:23,720
Speaker 1: it's very close, but I think this Chiefs team is

1259
01:02:24,640 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 1: more vulnerable. But then you're asking for Patrick Mahmes. I

1260
01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 1: don't know. There's if if I had to do it

1261
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 1: for my life, I think I would end up saying

1262
01:02:32,160 --> 01:02:34,959
Speaker 1: I'd rather see the Chiefs. But it's it's very close.

1263
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 2: I would not be comfortable, you know, in a weird way.

1264
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:40,280
Speaker 2: It's not like Andy's thinking about it like this, but

1265
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:44,600
Speaker 2: you know, he've had a shitty season for their standards, Like,

1266
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 2: if this is your shitty season, you're you're in pretty

1267
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:51,080
Speaker 2: good shape. I'd imagine that they're gonna get the Mike Evan,

1268
01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:53,920
Speaker 2: you know, like what Belichick and Brady used to do.

1269
01:02:54,360 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 2: They're gonna get those type guys coming to Kansas City,

1270
01:02:57,000 --> 01:02:59,040
Speaker 2: and they will draft some of their knees, They'll improve

1271
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 2: their offensive line will be fine. Yep, there's you know,

1272
01:03:03,040 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 2: this is a huge game for Josh and Sean McDermott.

1273
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:09,480
Speaker 2: You know, I mean if they win, like if the

1274
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 2: Chiefs win, will be of course Andy, But it's like eventually, like,

1275
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:14,800
Speaker 2: are you guys just always gonna lose these important games?

1276
01:03:15,160 --> 01:03:17,640
Speaker 2: Are you guys ever going to like? Is this ever

1277
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:20,600
Speaker 2: gonna happen for you guys? So I you got Mahomes,

1278
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 2: a little tight man homes at home, and you got

1279
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 2: a team that's unfhazed by playing in the cold. I mean, Mahomes,

1280
01:03:26,320 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 2: I thought he, like you said, they were playing the

1281
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 2: practice squad and Nigloo, but him and Andy just like, yeah,

1282
01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 2: it's called fucking throw some bombs to our shitty receiver.

1283
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 2: They didn't care at all. Yeah, Mahomes, they are not

1284
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:37,040
Speaker 2: going to be intimidated by the weather.

1285
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:38,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mahomes, I was playing in the cold. He's like

1286
01:03:39,160 --> 01:03:41,640
Speaker 1: in the snow too, like Brady, but he Yeah, that

1287
01:03:41,840 --> 01:03:46,160
Speaker 1: miss Mahomes' first true road playoff game. He did play

1288
01:03:46,200 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl in Tampa against the Bucks with

1289
01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:51,840
Speaker 1: in Tampa, but you know that's not the same as

1290
01:03:51,840 --> 01:03:52,960
Speaker 1: a true road game.

1291
01:03:53,080 --> 01:03:56,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, so destroyed that game.

1292
01:03:56,640 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that. Yeah, I'm I'm so curious. See

1293
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:03,080
Speaker 1: if the Bills just come out and they say we're

1294
01:04:03,120 --> 01:04:05,560
Speaker 1: gonna try and Cowboys this game and then you know

1295
01:04:05,600 --> 01:04:07,320
Speaker 1: with with Alan Cook and then you take a couple

1296
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 1: of shots once the safety start coming down. But I

1297
01:04:11,520 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 1: think this game will this game will be like it'll be,

1298
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:16,520
Speaker 1: it'll come down a fourth quarter. I'm extremely confident in

1299
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:19,760
Speaker 1: that it'll be close. And then I think I think

1300
01:04:19,800 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 1: the Ravens would beat either But again down in the

1301
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 1: fourth quarter. So THEFC Championshi game should be awesome. This

1302
01:04:27,280 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 1: game should be awesome. I would much rather you know,

1303
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:34,120
Speaker 1: I'm a Ravens fan. I have a Ravens and Bill's future.

1304
01:04:35,080 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 1: I wish I had a forty nine Ers feature because

1305
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:42,080
Speaker 1: the the path for next week is and for and

1306
01:04:42,120 --> 01:04:46,520
Speaker 1: then this week for the Bills is much cleaner. So yeah,

1307
01:04:46,560 --> 01:04:48,280
Speaker 1: I'm really looking forward to both those games. Just from

1308
01:04:48,400 --> 01:04:50,080
Speaker 1: a football fan perspective.

1309
01:04:51,160 --> 01:04:53,760
Speaker 2: Do a quick look ahead. What's just if the Niners

1310
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:56,720
Speaker 2: were to win the NFC, are they an underdog to

1311
01:04:56,760 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 2: the Ravens in that game?

1312
01:04:58,920 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 1: I think no, from like I would make the fourth

1313
01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 1: you know, from some odds makers I talked to right

1314
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:09,480
Speaker 1: after the game. So you remember the hort Nitans are

1315
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:11,680
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites at home against the.

1316
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 2: Ravens because the Ravens are favorite against everyone else obviously, right, yeah.

1317
01:05:15,640 --> 01:05:18,680
Speaker 1: Probably like a point. They were like a point or

1318
01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 1: two over the Bills. The Bills are the third best

1319
01:05:20,680 --> 01:05:24,920
Speaker 1: team power ratings wise, so then throwing home field like

1320
01:05:24,960 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 1: the Ravens will be close to a field goal. Uh.

1321
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 1: Favorite against the Bills next week, maybe I think it

1322
01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:34,520
Speaker 1: will be around a field maybe a little less but

1323
01:05:34,640 --> 01:05:37,400
Speaker 1: up to a field goal. But the Ford Niners were

1324
01:05:37,440 --> 01:05:39,720
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites against the Ravens at home,

1325
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:41,800
Speaker 1: which then you say, look now they're only nine and

1326
01:05:41,840 --> 01:05:43,720
Speaker 1: a half against the Packers, makes it look pretty cheap.

1327
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 1: Ravens are much better than a field goal, uh than

1328
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:51,440
Speaker 1: the Packers. But obviously the Ravens have you know, then

1329
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:53,920
Speaker 1: they they crushed everyone. Since then they crushed the Niners.

1330
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:58,000
Speaker 1: You adjust them. They've been adjusted a bunch, so they

1331
01:05:58,040 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 1: were you know, the market was assuming that the Niners

1332
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:03,360
Speaker 1: are like four points better than the Ravens, which was wrong.

1333
01:06:05,200 --> 01:06:07,880
Speaker 1: They're you know today the closer to like two. After

1334
01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 1: that game is what some oddsmakers I talked to would

1335
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:12,400
Speaker 1: would put the Super Bowl line. The Niners would be

1336
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:15,480
Speaker 1: two point favorites. Now the Ravens since then, you know,

1337
01:06:15,520 --> 01:06:16,200
Speaker 1: they beat the dog.

1338
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:17,720
Speaker 2: I was hoping the Niners would be like a three

1339
01:06:17,720 --> 01:06:20,040
Speaker 2: point dog, and then I put like five thousand dollars

1340
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:20,400
Speaker 2: on them.

1341
01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:23,200
Speaker 1: Now the Ravens beat the ship out of the Dolphins.

1342
01:06:23,320 --> 01:06:25,959
Speaker 1: They beat the ship. You know, they just were rolling teams,

1343
01:06:25,960 --> 01:06:27,280
Speaker 1: so they got it. They got bumped a little bit

1344
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 1: more since now both teams are ten point favorites this week,

1345
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:34,440
Speaker 1: So assuming they both win, yeah, it doesn't nothing's really gonna.

1346
01:06:34,240 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 2: Be you don't get that much credit.

1347
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:37,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, now next week the Ravens could get more a

1348
01:06:37,600 --> 01:06:40,840
Speaker 1: little bit more credit than they have forty nine ers,

1349
01:06:40,840 --> 01:06:44,120
Speaker 1: So I would if I had a guess it's gonna

1350
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:48,120
Speaker 1: be right now, it would it will be Niners minus one,

1351
01:06:49,440 --> 01:06:50,360
Speaker 1: but it could get to like I.

1352
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:52,160
Speaker 2: Feel like a lot of money would come in immediately

1353
01:06:52,160 --> 01:06:52,800
Speaker 2: on the Ravens.

1354
01:06:52,840 --> 01:06:55,360
Speaker 1: No, I think. I think a lot of public money,

1355
01:06:55,360 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 1: and public money can sway a super Bowl line. It's

1356
01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 1: I mean, every one of their their grandmam is betting it.

1357
01:07:02,160 --> 01:07:04,240
Speaker 1: But I think, yeah, the Ravens would have just beaten

1358
01:07:04,280 --> 01:07:07,520
Speaker 1: the Chiefs or the Bills, right, they already smoked the

1359
01:07:07,600 --> 01:07:09,280
Speaker 1: Niners in San France. I think you'll get a lot

1360
01:07:09,280 --> 01:07:12,360
Speaker 1: of casual money that might like the Ravens, but there's

1361
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:13,960
Speaker 1: a lot of sharp money that we're gonna be your

1362
01:07:13,960 --> 01:07:17,240
Speaker 1: biggest betters that make the you know, the Niners of

1363
01:07:17,280 --> 01:07:20,520
Speaker 1: point a half two points better, So that would balance

1364
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:20,880
Speaker 1: it out.

1365
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:23,960
Speaker 2: He takes a lot of grandma's dad up to like

1366
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:24,960
Speaker 2: one hundred grand.

1367
01:07:24,720 --> 01:07:27,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think it'll get the three either way.

1368
01:07:27,880 --> 01:07:32,560
Speaker 1: Without injuries. So my guest now is San Francisco minus one.

1369
01:07:33,040 --> 01:07:35,040
Speaker 2: I think we'd all sign up for that. Okay, Stucky,

1370
01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:39,320
Speaker 2: let's uh, let's enjoy the games, let's hammer those favorites,

1371
01:07:39,360 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 2: and let's let's screw for Josh Allen to run wild. Yeah,

1372
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:43,160
Speaker 2: one fucking wild.

1373
01:07:43,320 --> 01:07:46,640
Speaker 1: Hopefully we can uh talk shit to each other and

1374
01:07:46,840 --> 01:07:49,760
Speaker 1: Super Bowl week about Niners Ravens rematch.

1375
01:07:50,680 --> 01:07:53,440
Speaker 2: Hell yeah baby, Okay, Stucky, I'll talk to you next week.

1376
01:07:53,480 --> 01:07:59,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, good ship, good look, everybody the volume