1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: Daily we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg John 5 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: Farrell and Tom Keane and we welcome all of you, 6 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: particularly and serious in examy in Texas and in the 7 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: district of the Federal Reserve System of Texas with us 8 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,639 Speaker 1: Robert Kapp and he is President of the Chief Executive 9 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. One of 10 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: the high points for my year was our extended conversation 11 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: at the Council on Foreign Relations. Also one of the 12 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: high points of my year was when Michael McKee was 13 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: given the honor of final questions that chare yelling an 14 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: insulted the chair by asking her which dot was her? 15 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: Did you ask President Caplan of Dallas which dot was his? Did? Actually, 16 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: we'll do it again, because, uh, you know, the idea 17 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: of how many rate increases from the Fed next year 18 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 1: is paramount uh on everybody's mind on Wall Street. So 19 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: why don't we why don't we start with that oddly. 20 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: For some reason, Rob Kaplan has always been a longtime 21 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: fan of Bloomberg surveillance, so maybe he'll let us get 22 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 1: away with this. Um. It's one of the My father 23 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 1: darkened the door of a small college and college station, 24 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: Texas where there were no girls at the time. Anyway, 25 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: leaving all that aside, UH, where is your dot? And 26 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: uh do you think three rate moves in two thousand 27 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: eighteen is a reasonable assumption? Well, and I said to you, Uh, 28 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 1: and we've talked before. UM, gradual and patient is my 29 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 1: is my key comment. My own dot was three h 30 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: Whether it will turn out that way, we'll have to see. Um. 31 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 1: And and what would change? The economy could grow faster 32 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: than I expect. Uh, we can make more progress on unemployment. 33 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 1: Inflation might cause me to be higher than three or um. Uh. 34 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: The tenure treasury is something I'll be watching. And what 35 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: the tenure does will also influence how many rate increases 36 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 1: next year. Yeld curve is something I'll be watching carefully, 37 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: so that could augur the other way. The yield curve 38 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: is flattening. UM, and I wonder whether what the signal 39 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: really is there because most people would say there's a 40 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: massive balance sheet over the ECB. There's a massive balance 41 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: sheet over the b J, and that's why we've got 42 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: this flattening. That's why the tenure yield's not rising. Do 43 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: you see anything in that does that? Aren't you resonate 44 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: with you? So it's a part of it, and by 45 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: the way, I wish it was. I wish that was 46 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: all of it. But my my own view is a 47 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: part of what's going on is global liquidity. But I 48 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: think the bigger part of why the tenure is muted 49 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: is sluggish expectations for out year GDP growth. And what 50 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 1: I mean by that if you look at what potential 51 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: GDP growth is five years from now, I think it 52 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: is actually declining from where we are today. Why is 53 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: that happening? Aging demographic slowing workforce growth, and sluggish productivity 54 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: unless the United States improves early childhood literacy, college readiness, 55 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: and middle skills training. So I think the tenure treasury 56 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 1: tells you more about expectations for future growth, which are sluggish. 57 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: And so if you told me we were going to 58 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: have solid GDP growth the next two or three years, 59 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,839 Speaker 1: trailing off to maybe below two percent five years from now, 60 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: I would have expected a flatish yield curve, and that's 61 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: what you're seeing. But you expect the need to address 62 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: structural issues from your response just that. So what's the 63 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: Fed's role in this? Fed? FED has a part in this, 64 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: but not all of it. And I've been a big 65 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 1: advocate of saying monetary policy is going to be a 66 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: key part of economic policy the next five years. But 67 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: structural reform. Worms were at the stage where we need 68 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: structure re forms. What do I mean regulatory review is 69 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: a good thing. Uh, the corporate The elements of the 70 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: tax bill that involve corporate tax reform I think are constructive. 71 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: We'll come back to the rest of it. I think 72 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: beefing up education. We are lagging in this country in 73 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: terms of educational attainment. It's hurting productivity. And lastly, middle 74 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,799 Speaker 1: skills training is going to be essential, particularly an economy 75 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: where technology enabled disruption is accelerating, and I think we're 76 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: lagging in those areas. You're talking about the tenure as 77 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: an indicator of the market's view of long term potential growth. 78 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: That is completely different than the man down in Washington 79 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: who seems to think the tax cut is going to 80 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: change the whole fundamental picture for the United States? Is 81 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 1: the market wrong or is the president wrong? So let 82 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 1: me answer it this way. I've been in the markets 83 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: my entire adult life and been watching them since I 84 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: was before I was an adult, And what I learned 85 00:04:57,400 --> 00:04:59,679 Speaker 1: is I don't always know what the market is saying, 86 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 1: but I know it always pays attention to try to 87 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 1: decipher what it's saying. And I think the market is 88 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: saying the bond market is saying expectations for future growth 89 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: are sluggish, and I think it's worth paying attention to that. 90 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: We know Chairman Paul is not listening this morning. He's 91 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 1: at the dentist. Getting a root can help. I believe 92 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: in Chris Kringle, You're gonna be giving the gift that 93 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 1: keeps on giving to Jerome Powell, and that would be 94 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: I know what you told me, what you're gonna buy you. 95 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,559 Speaker 1: You're gonna get him a copy of What you really 96 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: Need to lead your heart, your wonderful book. You no 97 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: doubt bought it off Amazon, Chapter four. You can't do 98 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 1: this alone. Learning to build relationships and harness the power 99 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:43,239 Speaker 1: of a group Blogny. There were two cents. Every chairman 100 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 1: is different. What do you presume will be the method 101 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 1: of Governor Paul as he becomes chairman. So the good 102 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 1: thing j Pale is outstanding. We've been working together for 103 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 1: I've been working together with him for more than two years. 104 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 1: He's been on the FED board for a number of years. 105 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: And the most important thing, and I think Jay will 106 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: be a great leader for this is debate, disagreement, UH 107 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 1: and UM and to extend humanly policy possible a lack 108 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 1: of politics, and I think Jay will take that approach. 109 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 1: Give us a window of what happens at that long 110 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: wooden table. So here here's what happens. We meet on 111 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,239 Speaker 1: Monday UH in d C, and we normally have committee meetings. 112 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: The f O m C starts on Tuesday, and we 113 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: sit around the table. Each of us talks for ten 114 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: minutes and gives our views of the economy and and 115 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: we debated out on day one, that's Tuesday. And on Wednesday, 116 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: we each for ten minutes give our view on monetary policy. 117 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:43,160 Speaker 1: The chair goes last, as they do on Tuesday, and 118 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 1: the chair goes last. We debate that out and then 119 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: in the last thirteen seconds of the meeting we vote. 120 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 1: And so the nice thing about the f O m 121 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: C process, the federal up a market committee process is 122 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: we debate, we disagree, and if someone in the room 123 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: says something, regardless who they are, and I don't agree 124 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:02,679 Speaker 1: with it, I'm gonna raise my hand, and vice versa. 125 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: And we're each trying to listen, carefully, learn and add insight. 126 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 1: And so I think it's a pretty healthy dynamic. So 127 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: the man from Minneapolis turns around on Wednesday afternoon and 128 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: says to you guys, no, no, because there's a message 129 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: in the bond market to slow down. You guys should 130 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: slow down. What do you say back to the man 131 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: from Minneapolis. So I think the nice thing, and I 132 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: think it's it's excellent. I think it's a good thing 133 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: that we have disagreement, we have people willing to dissent. Uh. 134 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: We gotta remember, we've been debating. We've been debating around 135 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: the table each of our views. So what happens in 136 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: the last thirteen seconds of the meeting when we vote 137 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 1: is not a surprise. We already know every each other's 138 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: views and we debate amount and we disagree. Some of 139 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: the disagreements get resolved and some go unresolved. And I 140 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: think that's a good thing. If you my my, my 141 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: rebuttal though, just so you know, is I believe we 142 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 1: need to take a balanced approach to monetary policy. I'm 143 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: more of a centrist. That means you you look at 144 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 1: the degree of the full employment overshoot, which I think 145 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: is going to be substantial in two thousand eighteen. You 146 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: look at the degree of the inflation undershoot, which I've 147 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: been a big advocate of, saying part of it is cyclical, 148 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 1: but bigger part of it is structural. And when I 149 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: weigh those two, I think we'd be well served here 150 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 1: to remove accommodation, because what you don't want to do 151 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: is wait too long to where your playing catch up. Michael, 152 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: get one last one. Not in the Denver brodcast or 153 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys, neither one having a season to remember. Um, 154 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: although cowboys getting a little better. Well, the broadcast will 155 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: debate that outside the studio, right. Uh back to that debate, 156 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: though you say we get a substantial overshooting undershoot in 157 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,439 Speaker 1: terms of that unemployment rate, you got a number for that. 158 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: Uh No, I mean there the full employment what is 159 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: theory is a theotal radical level will know it in hindsight, 160 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: But our judgment of the Dallas Fed is we're already 161 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 1: either there or we're under it. Here's the number I 162 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: look at. I like to look not at the unemployment rate. 163 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 1: I look at you six. As we've mentioned before, unemployed 164 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: plus discourage workers plus people working part time for economic 165 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: reasons is eight percent, the prerecession low. We're basically at 166 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: the prerecession. That's the number I watch quickly. Does the 167 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: text legislation make the American economy more Texas Like? Uh, 168 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,959 Speaker 1: here's my here, here's there's here's the positive of them 169 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 1: of this legislation. I think corporate tax reform, incentives for 170 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:40,199 Speaker 1: people to locate their businesses in the United States are positive. 171 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: I think one of the posities of Texas why people 172 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: are coming. It's a very attractive place to locate your business, 173 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 1: and a lot of other things, uh no, no state tax, etcetera. 174 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: The part that I'm concerned about is the part that's 175 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: a tax cut financed by increasing the deficit makes a 176 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: problem that's already unsustainable more challenging, and that's my concernin 177 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Michael McKee, Thank you so much 178 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: as well. Dr Caplin, Thank you with the Dallas Fed 179 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: as well, Champ Farron, Tom King's this is Bloomberg and 180 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: now for the Minneapolis Fed the dissenter Neil cush Curry, Neil, 181 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,839 Speaker 1: wonderful to have you with us this morning. Is there 182 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 1: a distinction between your descent and that of the descent 183 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 1: of Mr Evans of Chicago or are they saying the 184 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 1: same thing? First of all, Tom, nice to chat with you. 185 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. I think Charlie Evans and I 186 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: are probably in the same place. We're both worried about 187 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: low inflation and low inflation expectations and the risk that 188 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: that could become anchored in the economy, and how difficult 189 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 1: that is to deal with if it does become anchored. Neil, 190 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: why is there a message in the bond market this 191 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: time around, when there was such big balance sheets at 192 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:09,599 Speaker 1: the e c P and b l J keeping a 193 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: lid on long term yields. Why did you still see 194 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: a message in the yield curve? Well, I think the 195 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: fact that I mean there's I mean, I agree term 196 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: premiums are low now, and so some people say, well, 197 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,599 Speaker 1: this is different because of the big quis and the 198 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: balance sheets that are out there. But the fact that 199 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: the long end of the curve is not responding to 200 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: our rate increases and not responding to the tax cut 201 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 1: package that has now come together. I think there is 202 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: information contained in that. I mean, even if the quees 203 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: are still having some effect, I would still expect to 204 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 1: see some movement in the long end of the curve 205 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 1: in response to this new information. The fact that it's 206 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 1: not and we're, in my opinion, we're sending a very 207 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 1: hawkish signal by raising rates at a time of low 208 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,359 Speaker 1: and seemingly falling inflation. I think the FED is responsible 209 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: for pushing up the front end and keeping a lid 210 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 1: on the back end, so going full ward. I just 211 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:01,839 Speaker 1: wonder what this means for policy. It's the message in 212 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: the yield curve recession risk, because most people would say 213 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: it's not that, it's the message slowed down. Is that 214 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: what you've taken away from its slowed down or recession risk? 215 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: I think it's Look, it could be both. I mean, 216 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 1: you know, every time somebody says this time is different, 217 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: they usually end up regretting saying that because it ends up. 218 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,559 Speaker 1: You know, the future looks more like history than we 219 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 1: maybe we recognize at the time. Number one. Number two, 220 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: the fact is, if the bond market is telling us 221 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 1: that they've got low inflation expectations, or they're pricing in 222 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 1: a local low neutral real interest rate, a low our 223 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: star as we call it. Both of those should be 224 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: telling us, hey, we should be cautious about raising interest 225 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 1: rates further until we actually see the inflationary pressures building. 226 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: You know, when I first dissented in March, I was 227 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: just saying, I don't see any inflationary pressures building. Why 228 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: are we raising rates. What's happened since then, inflation has 229 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 1: actually fallen, not gone up. I think we should take 230 00:12:55,200 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 1: these signals seriously. Each voice is just inctive. You are 231 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: the engineer at the FED. Twenty years ago, you were 232 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 1: in the acclaimed Sun Race, which was an intercollegiate solar 233 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: car race Illinois. I believe did better than good within 234 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 1: that race. Is there physics envy at the FED? Do 235 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: you look around, you know, from a Newtonian standpoint of 236 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: where you are, do you look around at people being 237 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 1: too mathy, too certain in their physics versus what you 238 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: observe within the economy. Well, I I do think there's 239 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 1: some of that, and I think I've described it as 240 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 1: a as a tension between faith and data. I think 241 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: there's some folks who have tremendous faith in the Phillips 242 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,559 Speaker 1: curve that this is the way the economy works. Labor 243 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 1: markets get tight, wages go up. That leads to inflation 244 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: versus looking at the data. And I I keep coming 245 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: back to what is the data actually telling us? And 246 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: we're trying to assess supply and demand in the labor market. 247 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: If you want to assess supply and demand in a market, 248 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 1: let's start by looking at the price. What is the 249 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: price telling us, Well, we know that wage growth is 250 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: not accelerating. We've been expecting it to accelerate, but it's 251 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: not accelerating. That tells me there's probably still more slack 252 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 1: in the labor market and that's why we're not seeing 253 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: these pressures building. Now, do you have any on data 254 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,199 Speaker 1: on how much lower unemployment can gug because we're in 255 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: the low full as you're looking for something in the 256 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: low threes. Well, I think that that number is uh, 257 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: probably somewhat distorted right now because if you look at 258 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: prime age labor force participation, so workers roughly fifty five, 259 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: there are still more than a million workers on the sidelines. 260 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: If you look at labor force participation and employment to 261 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: population ratios. Now, can all million be brought back in? 262 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: I don't know, but it does seem to be that 263 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: there's more slack in the labor market than that headline 264 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: unemployment rates suggests. I mean, what we're learning is that 265 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 1: the deep that the Great Recession was so destructive to 266 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: the labor market, some of these measures are a little 267 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: broken right now, that the measures themselves seem to be 268 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: flawed right now. A lot of people are criticizing you, 269 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: MR because you're looking simplistically at the dynamics of the 270 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: yield curve in your essay on the Minieapolis FED website. 271 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: You go right to it and you say, what is new? 272 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: Is the flattening yield curve? Is it new in the 273 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: recent months or is it new in FED history that 274 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: we're getting these odds fixed income dynamics. No, it's new recently. 275 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: I mean we've seen flattening yield curves before. We saw 276 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 1: it in the mid two thousands, we saw it in 277 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: the late nine nineties, and by the way, look at 278 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: both of those periods. In the late nineties and in 279 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 1: the mid two thousand's, the stock market was rocketing. So 280 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: I don't take any comfort from the fact that the 281 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 1: yield curve is flattening and the stock market is rocketing 282 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: because it's done it in the past, and the bond 283 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: market was right and the stock market was wrong. And 284 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 1: I'm not predicting a recession. I'm simply saying inflation is low. 285 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: It's been falling this year. Why are we in such 286 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: a rush to go raise rates? Why not actually allow 287 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: that inflation to reveal itself. Well, you know, we have 288 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: very powerful tools to deal with high inflation. We are 289 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: very limited tools to deal with low inflation soil, So 290 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: why are we jumping the gun? The pushback will be 291 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: financial distortions, negative yielding debt north and nine trillion dollars worldwide. 292 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: There's a tradeoff here, and it's a tradeoff over about 293 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: fifty basis points on PC. If you wait for inflation 294 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: to get up towards two, financial distortions are going to 295 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: get even bigger. You're not sensitive to the trade off 296 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: between what's happening in financial markets and what might happen 297 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 1: with PC. Well, this goes back to UH and I 298 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 1: wrote a long piece on my website about this. This 299 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: goes back to using interest rates to try to deal 300 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: with the stock market bubble and how costly. That is 301 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: you both know Alan Green's band declared that we had 302 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: a rational exuberance. If he had used monetary policy to 303 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: try to stop the stock market from rising, I think 304 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,359 Speaker 1: that would have been much more costly to the economy 305 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: into workers than the actual correction that took place in 306 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 1: two thousand and the fairly mild recession and that followed. 307 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: So to me, we have to look out for financial 308 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,440 Speaker 1: stability risks like two thous the tech bubble, the tech 309 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: bubble bursting was not a financial stability event. Neil Cosh Curry, 310 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciated. He is a president 311 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: of the Filler Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Greatly appreciate his 312 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 1: attendance today. That's pretty good, John Capital and Cash Curry. 313 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 1: That's quite a morning. That's quite a morning. Thank you 314 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: to Michael McKee. This is Bloomberg. This is a joint 315 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,919 Speaker 1: and honor. He's out of Purdue and Penn State. His 316 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 1: name is William Hoblin. And his experience in Washington with 317 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: Alice Rivlett at CBO a few years ago and was 318 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,360 Speaker 1: senators first of Tennessee Senator to Manici as well, has 319 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: been extraordinary and he is deeply experienced in the realities 320 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: of text legislation. William Hoglan is UH very important voice 321 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 1: at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. I'm gonna give 322 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: you an open question, Bill, because you've got such experience, 323 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: breadth and depth. Is you look at the different scenarios, 324 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 1: the analysis of the last three or four days. What's 325 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:25,959 Speaker 1: the thing that sticks out to you in this website, 326 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: this website and that website. Well, first of all, thank you, 327 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: You're very kind of your introductions. Tom. What stands out 328 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 1: to me, I guess as I look at this is 329 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:40,640 Speaker 1: the fact that the American public, in terms of polling 330 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 1: on this particular UH piece of legislation, seems to be 331 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: somewhat negative. That they perceive it as a privately probably 332 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: mostly a benefit to the upper income and corporate America, 333 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 1: no benefit to them. And I see this as juxtaposed 334 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 1: up against a president who says, this is a cut 335 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 1: for the middle This the reduction in tacts for middle class, 336 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 1: it will grow the economy, and the and the benefits 337 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: are straight. So there seems to be a real disconnect 338 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: what Congress is doing and what the American public believe 339 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 1: this legislation will do. I'm assuming William Hogan is going 340 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: to tell us there's gray in the middle. Well, where's 341 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: the gray? Is it towards the president or is it 342 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 1: towards our listeners? Well, I think that that's a very 343 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: good question. I think it's gray. I think there have 344 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 1: been I think first of all, when you look at 345 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: what will what is likely to happen when this is enacted, 346 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: And as I understand, the Secretary of Minution and the 347 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 1: Treasury Department are moving in I R. S is moving 348 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: to change the withholding tables so that they will have 349 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 1: an impact upon twenty withholding. It should be some benefits there. 350 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:49,439 Speaker 1: When you look at the legislation, it does have reductions 351 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 1: across the board. It seems now some people will benefit, 352 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 1: some people won't, but overall there will be a reduction 353 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 1: in average tax take out there from the American public. 354 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 1: How Ever, the big problem is, as I see it, 355 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,920 Speaker 1: is that a number of these and particularly the rate 356 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 1: cuts and the child credits and things that the middle 357 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: class America are looking for, go away in and so 358 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 1: and yet the corporate tax cuts and the other larger 359 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 1: tax cuts for for business continue on. So there is 360 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 1: what I'm afraid this legislation is not going to unite 361 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 1: UH the American public. I think it will continue to 362 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 1: divide us and continue to add to the polarization that 363 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: seems to be somewhat rather pervasive throughout the country today, Bill, 364 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: I want to dig into the polarization and maybe draw 365 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: distinction between perception and reality. On the perception. Is this 366 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 1: a communication problem with this administration? Have they sold this 367 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 1: plan badly over the last couple of months? Um, listen, 368 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: I I I believe that we need a tax reform. 369 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 1: I believe the President UH and the administration in Republican 370 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 1: Democrats believe that we need tax reform. I think what's 371 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,959 Speaker 1: been done where they missed on this is and I 372 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 1: no no surprise coming from the Bipartisan Policy Center where 373 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 1: I worked today that I think it would have been 374 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 1: a much more acceptable plan had they had. Republicans chose 375 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 1: not to go the route of using what we call 376 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: the budget reconciliation process. It requires them to only have 377 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 1: a simple majority in the Senate to passage. Like the 378 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 1: tax reform bill was done in a biparson way and 379 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: it had sustainability in it. I think this particular legislation 380 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: will have for Republicans. It will be similar to what 381 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: President Obama had with the Affordable Care Act, where it 382 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: was not passed with any Republican support, only Democratic support. 383 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 1: Now we have a legislation only passing with Republican support. 384 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,440 Speaker 1: That means, from my perspective, we're going to be debating 385 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: tax reform all the way through the next midterm and 386 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 1: into the presidential election. Bill Hope. Then I want you 387 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: to take this out to your perdue in the Lafayette 388 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 1: zip code for seven nine o nine. Good morning, Pretty Materials. 389 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: You've got a concrete come pretty out in western northern Illinois, 390 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: south of Gary where perdue as I get it, okay, 391 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,199 Speaker 1: Pretty Materials. What does this mean to a normal small business, 392 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,479 Speaker 1: not some real estate tycoon on Fifth Avenue. What does 393 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: it mean to a company like Pretty Materials? Well, I 394 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: do think that the pass through changes that the changes 395 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 1: in the past through the S corporation. I think the 396 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 1: reductions there. I do think that there is a benefit 397 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: to some of the smaller businesses and small business out there, 398 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 1: the individuals and entrepreneurship. I do think that that is positive. 399 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 1: I also think generally that that there that as we 400 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: get into this and we start to see the implementation 401 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 1: of it, and uh, and individuals uh maybe see a 402 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,359 Speaker 1: little bit more in their take home pay that that 403 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 1: will benefit those individuals working for that particular company in 404 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 1: northern Indiana and uh and has some been in So 405 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: I think the issue here is it will be beneficial, 406 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 1: it should be beneficial in the show term, and whether 407 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 1: it's Bruce to sustain Mike, but that's fine. I still 408 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: think it's Paul. We'll have to see Bill Hogland. Thanks 409 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen 410 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform 411 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. 412 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio