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Speaker 1: At least. He's The Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt

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Speaker 1: Williamson on Home of the Black and Gold Steelers Nation Radio.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Drive. I'm dl Lolly here with

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Speaker 1: Matt Williamson and uh Matt. In this segment, I wanted

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Speaker 1: to get into a piece that our friend Cynthia Freeland

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Speaker 1: wrote for NFL dot com and it's an analytics based

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Speaker 1: player team fits interesting and she breaks this down with

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Speaker 1: her computer formulas, um with how many wins? And I say,

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Speaker 1: I should say how many? How many a win? Uh right,

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Speaker 1: I mean it gonna be right. Nobody's adding that to

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Speaker 1: their team or whatever. Yeah, But she she measures this

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Speaker 1: out by how many how much did that player helps

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Speaker 1: a certain team. She puts all the free agents into

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Speaker 1: her computer program. It spits it out for per per team.

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Speaker 1: So her top guy, according to what what she came

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Speaker 1: up with, was the Jets signing Aaron Jones. Wow, would

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Speaker 1: give a lot of people say running backs don't matter,

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Speaker 1: you know, Aaron Jones for the Jets would add one

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Speaker 1: point four eight wins. I mean, I think I'm sure

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Speaker 1: a lot of it is. What do you have now?

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Speaker 1: I mean, if anyone they have a worse running back

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Speaker 1: room than the Steelers. Yeah, I mean that's a big jump.

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Speaker 1: I think he's a really good player. I think there's

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Speaker 1: an excellent chance that Zack Wilson's our opening day starter.

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Speaker 1: And I'm a big belief. I know you don't sign

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Speaker 1: back to second contracts as a rule of thumb, but

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Speaker 1: if I have a rookie quarterback or to uh boy,

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Speaker 1: they would like. The thing about Jones or that's interesting

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Speaker 1: is the fact that the Packers didn't use him as

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Speaker 1: a full time back like they worked the other guys

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Speaker 1: in there, so well, normally you wouldn't sign a back

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Speaker 1: to a second contract. He's really like in terms of

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Speaker 1: usage in year in year two or three, like Elliott. No,

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Speaker 1: you're not getting a guy that that's that's touched about

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Speaker 1: three hundred times a year for the last four years.

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Speaker 1: And I think if you're smart, you continue to use

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Speaker 1: them that way. I don't think he should be used

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Speaker 1: like Zike Elliot or Derrick Henry. I mean he should be.

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Speaker 1: We had a conversation, you know, about a little bit

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Speaker 1: ago about eight M. But the problem is you're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to pay him like one of those Yeah, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna you're gonna have to overpay for a back who

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Speaker 1: you don't want touching him on more than fifty times.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how many receptions he has in his

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Speaker 1: Green Bay career, but I always thought he was a

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Speaker 1: little under used there, Like if I'm paying a couple

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Speaker 1: of years they've thrown you know, he's had, you know,

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Speaker 1: so I still think he could be a seventy eight

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Speaker 1: even Number two on her list is bud Dupree. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's amazing signing with the Raiders. Bud dupre to the

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Speaker 1: Raiders would give would give the Raiders an additional one

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Speaker 1: point to four wins. I like, but as much as

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Speaker 1: the next guy. I mean, boy, that's a good fit.

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Speaker 1: They don't have. There's a lot I think he's I

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Speaker 1: bet he makes a lot of money. Yeah, he's going

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Speaker 1: to get the one year proved deal somewhere. Like I

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Speaker 1: saw about the injury, trying to think somebody put one

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Speaker 1: out the other day that they had dupries contract coming

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Speaker 1: in a one year for thirteen million dollars. If it's

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Speaker 1: one year and thirteen million dollars, the Steelers will be

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Speaker 1: in the market to bring him back. That's less than

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Speaker 1: what they paid him this year. They'll figure out a way.

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Speaker 1: If that's what the contract is, they'll figure out a

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Speaker 1: way to get that done. Sure, you can move some

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Speaker 1: money around and bring them back and run this thing

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Speaker 1: back on defense. Yeah, that's that's not enough. What do

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Speaker 1: he brings the table? Uh? Number three is Kenny Golladay

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Speaker 1: with the Eagles. Would provide the Eagles with one point

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Speaker 1: in additional one point to four wins. I don't know

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Speaker 1: how they can sign them though. They can't. They can't.

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Speaker 1: They're they're in. They're like thirty first and catch pay right.

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Speaker 1: They absolutely need a receiver. I think their first round

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Speaker 1: pick could be a receiver, but they can't afford it. Holiday. Uh,

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Speaker 1: he's don't get paid too. I mean he's happy Godwin

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Speaker 1: and Robinson got franchised. Up next is Trey Hendrickson with

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Speaker 1: the Jets. I've heard that rumor a lot. He would

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Speaker 1: add an additional one point one too wins for the Jets.

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Speaker 1: I mean edge pass rushers are extremely valuable. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think he's a little overrated. I think he said, you

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Speaker 1: want to talk about a one year guy. I don't

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Speaker 1: know that he's a special talent. I'd much rather have Bud.

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Speaker 1: I'd much rather have some of the other free agent

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Speaker 1: edge guys, and there's a lot of them. Uh, juju

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Speaker 1: is up next, jujus. Miss Schuster to the Giants would

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Speaker 1: add an additional one point one one wins. They've gotten ridden. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: golden taste is gone. Um, you know they need they

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Speaker 1: need a reliable, you know, receiver and you know in

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Speaker 1: the slaughter outside of it, which he's been healthy over

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Speaker 1: the course of his career, which is something you can't

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Speaker 1: say about the other guys. They stress tough guys in

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Speaker 1: that organization. In two and he'll block for Sa Kwan

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Speaker 1: a little bit and easy throws for Jones. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I could see that fit. I think they would

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Speaker 1: definitely be in the market for receiver. They'll had somebody shack.

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Speaker 1: Barrett going back to Tampa Bay adds one point one wins.

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Speaker 1: I mean again edge rusher. Yeah, I think I put

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Speaker 1: Barrett ahead of definitely ahead of Hendrickson and and probably

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Speaker 1: had about at this point too. Trent Williams going to

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Speaker 1: Miami would add one point oh one wins. He's gonna

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Speaker 1: make it fortune. He is so good, Adam, but he's

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Speaker 1: gonna be overpaid for what he is now. Probably he's

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Speaker 1: he's heading on the down slope. I mean, he's not

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Speaker 1: going to get better at this point. He's gonna get better.

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Speaker 1: But I thought he might have been the best left

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Speaker 1: acckling the league last year. Okay, but that's not gonna

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Speaker 1: you know, the length of this contracted up, Like are

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Speaker 1: you gonna have to sign him to a three or

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Speaker 1: four year deal to get him signed? And then if

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Speaker 1: you do that, what are you get in here? Three?

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Speaker 1: He could be that guy that's getting cut through two

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Speaker 1: years from a hour or so? Uh will Fuller to

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Speaker 1: the Jets ads point eight six wins? It sounds I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm seeing where she's going. Well, I guess there was

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Speaker 1: a running back in there. I would say a lot

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Speaker 1: of receivers and edge guys. Fuller was a really good player.

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Speaker 1: I mean I think he has more value. Like people

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Speaker 1: look him in fantasy and oh he said her miss

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Speaker 1: he changes an offense. Yeah, I mean he does shack Griffin,

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Speaker 1: who I don't. I don't like him, I think to

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Speaker 1: the Broncos adds point eight five wins, like they cut

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Speaker 1: and almost every mocus would you say he's he's the

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Speaker 1: number one cornerback available this trying to think who who

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Speaker 1: else is out? There. It's not a great group from

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Speaker 1: what I remember. Patrick Peterson, Yeah, you know, it's not

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Speaker 1: a great group. Richard Sherman to the Jets adds point

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Speaker 1: eight two wins. Everybody works out to the Jets because

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Speaker 1: the Jets were so bad that any talented player that

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Speaker 1: they add immediately better. Yeah, we we just got a

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Speaker 1: lot better because we're not playing well. I'm surprised Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: hasn't been on here with anything. They should be on

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Speaker 1: that list too, because they need everything that maybe because

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Speaker 1: they don't have a quarterback that that affects their window.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think that those two teams could have

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Speaker 1: the first two pigs. I'm not I'm not giving Richard

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Speaker 1: Sherman money. The only way I do is and like

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Speaker 1: the Jets, is if he's gonna be my coach on

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Speaker 1: the field for Salah who coached him in the Niners.

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Speaker 1: You know that's fine, but he's the thirty three year

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Speaker 1: old corner that didn't didn't run well as it was

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Speaker 1: absolutely right, you're not getting faster, and he has to

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Speaker 1: take like a gronk like deal in Tampa for me,

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Speaker 1: like just kind of be an ambassador, be my you know,

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Speaker 1: you have more value than what you do on the field.

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Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel to the Eagles ads point eight one wins.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it afford him either, but it be

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Speaker 1: a little more feasible. I think he's gonna be sought after.

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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna get Yeah, I've heard a lot

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Speaker 1: of Jets and Washington talk with him. How about this one.

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Speaker 1: I'll bet you disagree with this one. But Corey Davis

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Speaker 1: adds point seven wins for the Ravens. I kind of

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Speaker 1: knew that's where you're gonna go with him. And to

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Speaker 1: say I keep thinking Davis with the Ravens because he blocks,

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Speaker 1: I still think that would be a mistake. And I

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Speaker 1: saw there was a that's the best they can do.

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Speaker 1: An estimation on what they would pay him was like

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Speaker 1: fourteen million a year. If they do that, I mean

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Speaker 1: that's overpaying for Corey Davis. Yeah, because it's he's not

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Speaker 1: making Lamar anymore accurate. No, but he's I think they

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Speaker 1: need a veteran outside they do, he's not. He's like

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Speaker 1: six foot Yeah. If I'm signing a receiver for Lamar,

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Speaker 1: I want a bigger guy, a bigger physical like I

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Speaker 1: want a Claypool. Yeah, that can make okay, So he's

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Speaker 1: so he's you know, throws the ball foot over the

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Speaker 1: receiver said, well, this guy can go get it. Like,

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Speaker 1: I don't know that Corey Davis is that guy. No,

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Speaker 1: I don't think he's that guy. I think he's coming

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Speaker 1: into his own and he's gonna make that I'd like

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Speaker 1: them coming out of school though, I've kind of always

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Speaker 1: been a Corey Davis fan and thought he got not

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Speaker 1: the short end of the stick, but was just a

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Speaker 1: little slow to develop coming out of a small school.

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Speaker 1: And they used to be third year breakout receivers. Now

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Speaker 1: you don't hear that term anymore. And if someone takes

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Speaker 1: three years, oh he's terrible. You know. I just think

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Speaker 1: if I would, you know, I would, I would, and

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Speaker 1: somebody better if I'm gonna pay oh, I know. I'm

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Speaker 1: just thinking, like, would you would you go for Juju?

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Speaker 1: If you're them? He would make more sense? I mean,

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Speaker 1: Alan Robinson would be ideal. But you can't get that

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Speaker 1: get him? Yeah, I mean I don't. Can't they afford holiday?

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Speaker 1: Holiday is gonna be twenty two million? You know what

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Speaker 1: I mean? Is there? I mean, if you're gonna spend,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna spend the money, you might as well get

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Speaker 1: the guy that's that's gonna make you better. I mean,

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Speaker 1: all those guys are better for me. I just don't

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Speaker 1: know that they're gonna be juju might be. The other

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Speaker 1: thing is, if I'm Corey Davis, I don't wanna go

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Speaker 1: to the Ravens that you don't want to catch fifty

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Speaker 1: balls a year, right right? You know, because there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a lot of teams that you're gonna have to

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Speaker 1: overpay me. Yeah, especially if I'm Allen Robinson or one

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Speaker 1: of those Hunter Henry to the Patriots ads point six

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Speaker 1: four wins, I think I think he's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: Patriot or a Jag. Yeah, both, It makes perfect sense.

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Speaker 1: He was very much a Belichick type of guy. Man,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I want to pay him either.

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Speaker 1: He can't he can't stand the field, he can't stay

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Speaker 1: in the field. Talented guy, but you know you're gonna

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Speaker 1: get ten eleven games at him every year, and we

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Speaker 1: ripped the Browns or signing Hooper last year. Henry's better

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Speaker 1: than Hooper, but he's less reliable. Absolutely, at least you

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Speaker 1: know who Hooper has gotten hurt once in his career.

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Speaker 1: You know, Henry's gotten hurt every year of his career.

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Speaker 1: Now that part's hard. Cam Newton to the Washington football

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Speaker 1: team would have added three point six four wins. They

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Speaker 1: of course updated this that he signed resigned with so

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Speaker 1: they took him. She moved it down list, so he

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Speaker 1: would have been the top of this list. He's a quarterback. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you noticed you didn't see Ryan Fitzpatrick anywhere adding good

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Speaker 1: point Victorias to anybody's How you do a guy like

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Speaker 1: Winston either, like how would you know how good he is?

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Speaker 1: Who knows? He might be a negative? Maybe maybe worse?

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Speaker 1: Makes your team worse if you signed this guy. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I probably shouldn't do that one. Assume you could do

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Speaker 1: it with Watson and Wilson too, Like what if I

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Speaker 1: trade for Wilson or Watson? Yeah, and she was just

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Speaker 1: looking at free agency? Is a side note? If that

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Speaker 1: trade happens, could she put it in, punch it in

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Speaker 1: the inner database and come up with a number. But

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Speaker 1: gives them up to they didn't give them to you

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Speaker 1: for free right, That's the that's the key. You know.

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Speaker 1: I keep seeing a lot of different things about this

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Speaker 1: team has this much cap space, that team has that

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Speaker 1: much cap space. We're not gonna know because of all

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Speaker 1: the flurry of moves that are being made right now.

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Speaker 1: Who nothing is like and and teams don't have to

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Speaker 1: turn that in until next Wednesday. That's when you have

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Speaker 1: to be in compliance, and that's when you have to

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Speaker 1: turn your numbers into the NFL p A and all

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Speaker 1: that good stuff. So there's some obvious stuff. We know

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Speaker 1: the Colts and Patriots have a lot of money in.

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Speaker 1: But these are all estimations stuff. I saw one thing

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Speaker 1: today on the Athletic I thought was interesting. I meant

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Speaker 1: to bring it up to you earlier. Actually is they

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Speaker 1: ranked the thirty two teams how they think they'll be

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Speaker 1: active in free agency, with thirty two being the least active.

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Speaker 1: They just steals twenty three, you know, which that means.

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Speaker 1: That's that's implying they'll do something. I mean, if you're

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Speaker 1: if you're resigning your own and you know, you go

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Speaker 1: get a guy or two. Yeah, I mean that, and

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Speaker 1: like not thing's gonna happen, right, So, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think the people, you know, we're looking at this singing, well,

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Speaker 1: the Steelers are gonna lose all these guys and they're

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Speaker 1: not gonna add anything. That's not gonna be. That's how

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Speaker 1: they're set up. I think they're in pretty good shape.

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Speaker 1: We talked about that an awful lot. Yeah, I saw

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Speaker 1: a thing. They were actually um in the latest rankings

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Speaker 1: of of money to spend. I think they were twenty

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Speaker 1: second or again two weeks ago they were. And so

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Speaker 1: the flexibility to them and they have some fluidity that

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Speaker 1: they could make more of the well, that's that's that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be the key any move that they make from

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Speaker 1: here on out. I think the last that I figured

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Speaker 1: that they were about six million under the cap. Obviously

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Speaker 1: the Finny move will take some of that, not that

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Speaker 1: much because that's that's a one year deal, and it's

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Speaker 1: a one year deal, so you can assume they gave

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Speaker 1: them the mini a moment and maybe a small signing

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Speaker 1: boas yeah. Um, And so that's gonna displace one of

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Speaker 1: those guys at the bottom of the roster who was

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Speaker 1: making let's say five eight thousand dollars and then you

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Speaker 1: give him him a million or something. So yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: you're not looking at a huge just you know, a

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Speaker 1: huge number there for b J. Finney. I don't if

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Speaker 1: everyone realizes that, like let's say they were exactly six

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Speaker 1: million over there under the cap and they give him

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Speaker 1: a million. That doesn't mean you're five, right, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's more like you're you're probably five and a half

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Speaker 1: somewhere in that, right. So that's how that works. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, that's the great thing about these

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Speaker 1: one year deals. The teams are going to get guys

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Speaker 1: to sign this year of him. Yeah, I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be over the overwhelming amount of the number of

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Speaker 1: deals out there are gonna be one year deal Because

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Speaker 1: to me, it's the perfect situation. I've said this for years.

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Speaker 1: If I were the NFL and I don't want to

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Speaker 1: give guaranteed money, what I would do them would say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're just gonna give one of your contracts, right, but

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Speaker 1: just pretty close. I mean, Finney's gonna make the team. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna make the You're gonna make the team. You're

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Speaker 1: gonna play this season. We'll talk to we'll talk to

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Speaker 1: you again next year about what you know, what you

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Speaker 1: what you we think you should make. Then you're not

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Speaker 1: in the danger of being cut right right right right,

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Speaker 1: We're just gonna work this. We're gonna a year to

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Speaker 1: year with all these deals. Players would never do that

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Speaker 1: because they want the security and they want the big bonus.

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Speaker 1: But there's no security. But there's the only guys who

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Speaker 1: have security are the stars. Finney probably thought he had

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Speaker 1: security when he signed with Seattle. Right, Well, I get

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Speaker 1: they gave me eight million dollars over two years. I'm

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Speaker 1: pretty secure. Well, you found out you're not Jesse James

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Speaker 1: at a year of security. Yeah, and then now he's

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Speaker 1: done the street fighting for a job, right, No, you're right.

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Speaker 1: I mean it's different if you're you know, a monster signing,

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Speaker 1: you know, I mean you're you're obviously set. But no,

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Speaker 1: you're Underson, right, I mean, not to mention the one

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Speaker 1: year deal thing really works out this year, and I

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Speaker 1: just think teams will have so much more to spend

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Speaker 1: a year from now. Like the Seahawks are eating a

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Speaker 1: million dollars on b J. Finney this year and dead money.

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Speaker 1: That's bad business. Yeah, and it's only a million, but

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Speaker 1: it's he's the largest dead money hit on their on

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Speaker 1: their for this year by far. Their next closest guy

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Speaker 1: is Shack Griffin at the seventy nine thousand. I know

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Speaker 1: you have no clue with the answer to this question

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Speaker 1: is but if I told you next year's salary cap

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Speaker 1: was to fifteen ish, do you think that's about right?

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Speaker 1: I think it's around two well over too. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm assuming we get fans and this here's the problem though,

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Speaker 1: that's what we expected it to go up this year, right,

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Speaker 1: So really what you did? What happened here? As you

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Speaker 1: lost that year, lost the whole year because next year

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Speaker 1: it should have been if it had gone up to

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Speaker 1: to ten or two fifteen. You're thinking, okay, it's two fifty,

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Speaker 1: it's two five or two thirty two. The contracts you

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Speaker 1: signed three years ago thinking to Europe, right, you know,

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Speaker 1: somebody's dack deals imply that they think it's going to

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Speaker 1: go up. Um. The problem with you know, a B. J.

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Speaker 1: Finni is a perfect example. If he has a terrible year,

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Speaker 1: he could be forgotten. Yeah cost you nothing though right now,

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Speaker 1: I'm just talking about from his perspective. He could fall

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Speaker 1: off the map if he really plays poorly or he

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Speaker 1: has a bad injury or whatever. You know, such a life.

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Speaker 1: I mean, all the one year deals are betting on yourself. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but I mean to me, those those kind of deals

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Speaker 1: make the most sense, Like, don't worry about the long term,

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Speaker 1: you know, because really exist, I'm signing a four years,

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Speaker 1: you know, eighty million dollar contract and I you know,

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Speaker 1: I get I get ten million up front or twenty

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Speaker 1: million whatever. It would be like I'm easily culdible after

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Speaker 1: two years, easily, and people's play falls off quickly. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's hard to be the longevity parts hard as a

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Speaker 1: player to maintain that value, right, So to me, I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, the one or even two year deals, like

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Speaker 1: if you just signed everybody a two year, two year

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Speaker 1: deal and then we'll talk again, you know after, you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe we'll talk. Maybe have a really good season we

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Speaker 1: want to add two more years on the end or whatever.

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Speaker 1: Move money around nicely. About a two verse of one though,

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Speaker 1: is I at least know I have my center for

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Speaker 1: two years. I don't have the draft one or whatever

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Speaker 1: position is, you know, at least it's it's hard to

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Speaker 1: prepare for the future team building wise with a lot

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Speaker 1: of one year deal. It goes back though to to

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Speaker 1: you know, the argument with the people have been saying that, well,

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Speaker 1: the Steelers only have twenty players under contract. That's a

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Speaker 1: change quick. Yeah, that's that's not that's not a problem.

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Speaker 1: That's not a problem, right, And to your theory about

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Speaker 1: the one year contract thing, I like it, especially if

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Speaker 1: you're a good organization and you have opened communication through

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Speaker 1: the process and after the year and they sit down

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Speaker 1: with Tom at the end of the year and like,

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Speaker 1: we didn't think you played as well as we expected.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's being up front and on it's been

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Speaker 1: a good business relationship, and you're not screwing guys over

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Speaker 1: because then you can then you have that window from

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Speaker 1: the day the season ends until free agency. It's it's

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Speaker 1: not like free agency starts the day after the season, right,

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Speaker 1: You've got time in there to to get those guys

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Speaker 1: under conscient as long as they're happy and you're happy

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Speaker 1: and the year went well and everyone was up front

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Speaker 1: with each other, and it seems like this organization is

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Speaker 1: great about that stuff. Yeah, So, I mean, I I've

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Speaker 1: said that for a long time. I think it would

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Speaker 1: make a lot more sense, you know, to to do

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Speaker 1: it that way. But again, the players would never agree

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Speaker 1: with it, agree to it because they want the long term.

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Speaker 1: But there's there's no such thing as long long term

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Speaker 1: security in the NFL unless you're a quarterbacks. Say, if

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Speaker 1: you're de Shaun Watson or something like that. Yes, you

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Speaker 1: know he's not happy, But I mean, do you think

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Speaker 1: the Shawn Watson will be happier had he signed a

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Speaker 1: one or two year deal with Houston right now? Sure?

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Speaker 1: You know, well, well I can get out of this

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Speaker 1: is okay? Like I think that's pretty secure. Yeah, but

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Speaker 1: he's again, he only signed a four year deal. My

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Speaker 1: home signed a ten year deal. A lot can happen

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Speaker 1: in ten years. That might sign another big one, right

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Speaker 1: or he might not be good, right, you know, they

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Speaker 1: maybe he's you know, it's maybe he's not the same

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Speaker 1: after the injury. He's still know, But I I just

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Speaker 1: think it makes sense in a sport like this, where

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Speaker 1: play cana. Three years in the NFL's an eternity, anternity

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Speaker 1: for a backup guard or a running back or anything.

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Speaker 1: You know. Really, I mean most positions just don't last

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Speaker 1: that long. I mean the stars are different. Yeah, the

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Speaker 1: stars are the stars. Pick you're gonna be a three

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Speaker 1: year player, but you know the rest of them perfectly.

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Speaker 1: I'll go a year to year. You know, if I

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Speaker 1: if I up played my contract, let's talk about it

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Speaker 1: next year. Obviously I'm gonna have a bigger role if

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Speaker 1: you tell your a c Oh, it's not like it

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Speaker 1: used to know, right, someone's gonna pay bud. Yeah, there's not.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we just saw that the chiefs cut both

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Speaker 1: of their offensive tackles because they were hurt. Where was

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Speaker 1: there long term security? Right, It's not like they drafted

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Speaker 1: tackles waiting in the wings either. You know. That's they

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Speaker 1: didn't see that coming. I'm sure. Yeah, that wasn't part

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Speaker 1: of their long term So anyways, he is Matt Williamson.

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Speaker 1: I'm Dale Lally. You've been listening to the Drive here

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Speaker 1: on Steelers Nation Radio. We're gonna take another break. Um.

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Speaker 1: I want to thank you Matt for handling this segment

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Speaker 1: as he did with much a plumb, and we want

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Speaker 1: to thank Jacob Breck for keeping us on the air.

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Speaker 1: We also want to thank you for listening to this

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Speaker 1: edition of the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio.