WEBVTT - Concert Attack Suspects Charged & Bonds Are Back...Maybe 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:11.119 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:14.920 Daybacurate podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:17.840 you listen. It's Monday, the twenty fifth of March in London. 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:21.720 I'm Caroline HEPKEA coming up today. As the deathtop from 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:25.760 the Moscow concert hall attack continues to rise, Putin makes 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:31.200 furious claims of Ukrainian involvement. Once bitten twice, not so 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:35.000 shy global bond traders once again load up on rate 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:39.519 cut wages and deadline day for Donald Trump, the presidential 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:43.879 contender faces having his assets seized unless he posts a 0:00:44.080 --> 0:00:48.200 court bond worth more than half a billion dollars. Let's 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.120 start with a roundup of our top stories. Russia has 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.360 charged four men in connection with the Moscow concert hall 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:57.560 terrorist attack, in which at least one hundred and thirty 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:01.040 seven people were killed. The men had a number of 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:05.480 viable of injuries and one needed treatment during the heat hearing. 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:09.120 The court ordered that all four be detained until the 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:13.120 trial in May. Islamic State has taken responsibility for the 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:17.480 attack and posted footage of the assault, but Vladimir Putin 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:21.440 and other officials have made vague claims of Ukrainian involvement. 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.840 That is something that Vladimir Zelenski has strenuously denied. 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.200 It's just it's obvious that both Putin and others are 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:32.440 trying to shoot responsibility on someone else. They've already been 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:36.800 blowing up houses, shootings and explosions, and they always blame others. 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:41.759 The Ukrainian President's comments, spoken there by a translator, come 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:44.959 amid concerns that Putin could use the attack to justify 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:49.040 a new mass mobilization of troops for the ongoing invasion 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:52.840 of the country. On Friday, Russia unleashed the biggest missile 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:56.800 and drone assault on Ukraine so far this year. French 0:01:56.840 --> 0:02:00.000 authorities have raised their security alert level to the maximum 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:03.560 following the deadly attack on Friday in Moscow. The Prime 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:07.840 Minister Gabrielle Attal said that the increased country wide awareness 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:11.720 level was justified given the quote Islamic states claim that 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:14.880 it was responsible for the attack and the threats weighing 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:18.079 on our country. Attal made the announcement in a tweet 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:22.360 on Sunday evening, following a Defense and Security Council meeting 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:27.640 organized by President Immanu and Maco. At the Elise Palace. Meanwhile, 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:30.800 in markets, bond traders are once again betting that the 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:34.040 Third ECB and Bank of England are close to cutting rates. 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:39.760 After entering the year banking on March, rates, traders are 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:43.120 now leaning towards June as the start of the easing cycle. 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:46.160 But after previous bets that central banks would be swift 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:50.680 to loosen monetary policy backfired, consensus is now building that 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:54.680 this time things are different. Matthew A. Dixon is the 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:58.440 head of fixed income strategy at Bank of America. He 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:01.360 says that we still haven't see the full effects of 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:02.480 rate hikes. 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:07.320 It takes twelve to twenty four months for rate hikes 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.400 to actually impact the economy. So if you're looking at 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:15.399 a lagging economic intoget inflation and the rate leg come 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:18.000 back and talk to me first half for twenty twenty 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.040 five to the back half of twenty twenty five and 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.840 tell me if rate hikes haven't worked. So they've gotten 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:26.040 the soft slash, no landing, they're going to continue to 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:28.400 play for that. With one hundred and seventy million people 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:31.239 in the labor force, every one percent increasing employment, what's 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:32.680 about too many people out of work? 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:36.320 It's worth playing for Matthew Ditchalk making the case for 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:37.840 rate cuts to come. 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:38.119 There. 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.800 The prospect of lower rates is particularly boosting the allure 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:44.720 of shorter data obligations, which stand to gain the most 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:48.800 as rate cut speculation continues to build. Now the UK 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:52.120 chances of Jeremy Hunt has pledged to maintain Britain's triple 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:55.560 lock state pension if his party wins the next election. 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:58.920 The commitment means that the state benefit would continue to 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:02.640 rise by the highest of either inflation averagjournings or two 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:05.320 and a half percent annually. Now, he told the BBC's 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:08.720 Lawercusbo that he is confident that the government can grow 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:10.960 the economy enough to pay for this. 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:15.160 That is an expensive commitment and you can only and 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.640 indeed and you can only make that commitment if you're 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:21.400 confident that you're going to deliver the economic growth that's 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:23.039 going to pay for it. What we saw in the 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:27.200 budget was because we have a plan for growth, the 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:30.400 OBI say that we will get back to two percent 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:34.039 ish growth over the next day to speak. That means that 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:36.120 we can start to make that very important. 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:38.960 So that was the chaser Jeremy Hunt and now his 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:42.000 comments come as the Labour party also reaffirmed its commitment 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:45.080 to the triple lock. The Institute for Fiscal Studies, though, 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:48.280 has calculated that the state pension cost the government eleven 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:51.600 billion pounds a year more than had it risen in 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:56.599 line with either inflation or earnings since twenty ten. Now 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.680 to Ireland, where the Education Minister Simon Harris has been 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:04.520 named leader of his party Phinogoyl, making him Prime Minister elect. 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:08.000 The move comes after previous leader and Premier Lea Varadkar 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:11.880 announced his intention to resign last week. Now Harris stood 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:15.359 uncontested for the leader spot and used his first speech 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:19.400 to emphasize a commitment to cooperation in Ireland and beyond. 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:23.320 We will always be a party that will work with 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:28.160 everybody across this island of Ireland to embed peace and 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:32.680 prosperity and to make sure we harness the untapped potential 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:36.880 of the all Ireland economy. We will always support democracy 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:42.400 and freedom and we condemn onreservedly the horrific illegal invasion 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:46.000 of Ukraine by Putin and we stand by Ukraine always. 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.839 That was the Phinnogoyl leader Simon Harris speaking there. It's 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.760 expected that Harris will be formally voted in as t Shirk, 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:56.600 the Prime Minister in Ireland, on the ninth of April, 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:02.000 when Parliament returns after its Easter break. Today's deadline, we'll 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.640 see Donald Trump either have to post a bond to 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:07.680 cover a four hundred and fifty four million dollar civil 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:11.359 forward verdict or risk the seizure of some of his assets. 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:14.359 The former president says he has almost five hundred million 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:17.120 dollars in cash, but would need closer to a billion 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:20.320 dollars in reserves to cover the amount and also retain 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.440 enough cash to run his real estate company. The deadline 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:26.800 coincides with Trump's appearance in a Manhattan court for a 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:31.080 hearing related to accusations that he falsified business records before 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:35.760 the twenty sixteen election. And those are today's top stories 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:38.080 for you. Now, let's talk a little bit more about 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:40.880 Russia holding a national day of mourning on Sunday after 0:06:40.920 --> 0:06:43.160 the terrorist attack that killed at least one hundred and 0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:45.960 thirty seven people in Moscow. Four men have now been 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:51.640 charged with terrorism. Joining me this morning is Tony Halpin. Tony, 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:54.240 good morning. You lead our economics and government coverage in 0:06:54.320 --> 0:06:58.320 Russia and the wider region. Still a lot of unknowns 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:01.960 does seem that the evidence points towards the attack being 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:03.320 carried out by Islamic State. 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.960 Yes, good morning. Certainly Islamic State have claimed it. They've 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:10.680 published videos showing what they say are the four men 0:07:10.760 --> 0:07:14.280 who were carrying out the attack. Putin, as you mentioned, though, 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:19.040 continues to point toward Ukraine, even though they are unable 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:21.559 to provide any evidence showing that they alleged that the 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:26.280 four attackers who were detained were on their way to Ukraine. 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:31.280 Russia itself, of course, is deeply in shock and people 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:35.559 are really reflecting that it harks back to a period 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:39.600 in the early two thousands when terrorist attacks were frequent 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:41.160 and cause real alarm. 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:43.960 The narrative from the Kremlin, though, Tony, is that the 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:45.440 attack came from Ukraine. 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:48.080 Yes, and there are probably two reasons for that. 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:48.680 I mean. 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:53.000 The first is, in any normal country, a massacre of 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:56.720 this size would immediately raise questions about the competence of 0:07:56.760 --> 0:08:00.280 the security services and there be political demands for to 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:02.640 role in the leadership. But nothing of that sort is 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:07.040 happening in Russia. Because put In, even though he dismissed 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:09.720 warnings of a terrorist attack just a few days before 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:13.680 it actually took place, doesn't, of course, want to hold 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:16.960 the FSB accountable for these failures, and it serves the 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:20.240 Russian state's purpose to try and blame things on Ukraine 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:23.040 because they're desperately trying to maintain support for the war, 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:26.119 and that's raising questions about what they might be planning next. 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.560 In terms of the motivation behind the attack, then, I 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:32.760 mean the US intelligence had warned about this, right, yes, they. 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:36.360 Gave quite a specific warning at the seventh of March, 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:39.840 saying that there was a risk of terrorist attacks on 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:43.880 large scale gatherings, including concerts, and put it on Tuesday, 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:48.720 met with top Federal Security Service officials and publicly dismissed 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.640 that warning as some sort of American propaganda designed to 0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:56.400 frighten and divide Russian society. So that's pretty embarrassing for 0:08:56.440 --> 0:09:01.200 the Russian leader. Islamic State, of course, has targeted Russia 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:06.200 in the past, and particularly since Russia went into Syria 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:10.320 in twenty fifteen in support of Kasha Alaha forces in 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:12.760 that country civil war, So it is not. 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:14.679 A surprise that Islamic State has claimed. 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:17.280 It, but we still don't know if they're actually fully responsible. 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:22.080 Meanwhile, Sunday also saw the third major Russian attack against 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:25.160 Ukraine in four days. So what actually about the course 0:09:25.200 --> 0:09:26.880 of Russia's war in Ukraine. 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:30.880 Yeah, since Britin was re elected last Sunday, Russia has 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:35.560 definitely stepped up air attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure, 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:39.280 in particular on Sunday. In fact of Russian missile briefly 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:43.520 crossed into Poland and that paused Polish authorities to protest 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:47.719 to Russia and to no FI NATO allies. Ukraine has 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:50.800 been striking back as well. It struck two Russian ships 0:09:51.320 --> 0:09:52.840 off Crimea on Sunday. 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:54.320 So there's a general. 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:58.679 Intensification of missile attacks even as there's not much change 0:09:58.720 --> 0:09:59.760 on the ground in the war. 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:03.439 Tony also, just lastly, what is the mood done in 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:04.560 Russia and in Moscow? 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:06.000 Well, people are in shock. 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.320 This is the biggest attack and loss of life in 0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:13.440 Moscow since two thousand and two. Many people have grown 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:17.240 up believing that this sort of terrorist attack was part 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:20.000 of their past, and now suddenly it's returned to their 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:22.400 presence and it's created a great deal of in security 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:23.640 and distress. 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:24.679 The city is in. 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:26.640 Mourning and the country is in mourning, and people are 0:10:26.640 --> 0:10:28.560 really trying to process what's happened. 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:30.559 Tony Halpin, thank you so much for being with us 0:10:30.559 --> 0:10:33.559 this morning. That Tony Halpin leads our economics and government 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:36.559 coverage of Russia and the wider region. Now, as we 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:39.800 heard last week, the Federal Reserve and key global peers 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:42.959 finally appears set to begin reducing interest rates as soon 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:45.120 as June. So let's move on to talk about bond 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:51.040 traders who have started to cautiously begin reloading wages that 0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:54.120 actually burned them only a few weeks ago. So have 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:56.880 they got it right this time around? Johnny Snow to 0:10:56.880 --> 0:11:01.080 discuss is Bloomberg's FFX rashist Dave Finity, Good morning. This 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:03.600 really stood out to me in the piece. Jim Reed, 0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:07.319 Deutsche Bank's global head of economic research, reckons that markets 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:11.520 have pivoted towards Dubvish policy seven times in this cycle, 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.400 and on at least six previous occasions. The outcomes have 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:17.440 actually been hawkish. So it's not been a very good record. 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.480 Yes, it's certainly a very tough trade. Indeed, I mean 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:24.080 the markets have been looking well, expecting or hoping, however 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:25.880 you want to view it, for the Federal Reserve and 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:30.040 other central banks to cut rates as inflation as is 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.640 seen to be slowing, and obviously when you think I 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:34.719 like to last year, there was obviously worries were a 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:37.920 session which hasn't materialized yet, but there was expectations of 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.880 that and based of that, markets were going okay, fed 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:43.560 other central banks, you will be cutting rates now as 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:45.280 we know that didn't turn out the case. 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:47.200 And what actually has happened. 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:51.319 Is inflation's pre nstking them they've expected, and in economy 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:54.160 has actually been growing more than expected. As a result 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:56.760 of that, yields have stayed high and pushed higher than expected. 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:59.600 So every time there's been a dipping yields because the 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:02.040 market's way forward looking, so it's quite happy to run 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:04.559 with this idea. As soon as there are dipping yields, 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.120 it goes down, down, down, Then reality, shall we say, 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:10.080 sets in and the treasury is pushed back up. So 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:11.920 they keep losing on these bets that yours will go 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:15.000 lower this time though, particularly someone like the Swiss National 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.280 Bank last week which cut rates, they're thinking maybe this 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:19.400 is finally the time. 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:19.839 They're right. 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:22.680 Obviously, we'll have to see other data comes out, because 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:25.240 it isn't worry if the data does come out, continue 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:28.960 to be elevated and so strong growth stick inflation. Then 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:31.280 the question is how much those central banks actually need 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:31.960 to cut rates. 0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:35.280 Well, what prompted trade is to jump the gun a 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:36.080 few weeks ago. 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:40.080 Then again, it's all expectations of what you think is 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:43.520 going to happen any week data, particularly if it's inflation 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:47.240 data or week growth data, that will get the market excited, 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:49.320 going okay, this is the start. 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.360 Something a trend that is going to happen. 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:55.080 And unfortunately what's happened is the expectations you've men are 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.080 going too this year. They literally thought there'll be a 0:12:57.120 --> 0:13:00.120 seventy seven per cent chance in mid January of the 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.199 Federals are cutting rates in March. Now we know obviously 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:05.520 that didn't happen. And the reason being is obviously that 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:08.520 inflation data, whether it be the CPI measure or the 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:12.840 Fed Federals preferred the shore of course personal consumption Expension index, 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:16.840 they actually remain elevated and actually upticked, which is what 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:20.360 the market did not want. And therefore markets dial back 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.440 expectations for freight cuts and that's where US shields go. 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:26.920 So again the idea of US feels pushing lower got 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:27.640 beaten up. 0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:28.439 One more time. 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.439 Yeah, absolutely, so, then where do you think the major 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.920 action in the market is right now? 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:36.599 I think in terms of yours the main if you 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:40.559 look at FX, it's very sort of sideways based. 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:43.120 If you look at implied volutility very low. 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:45.840 So really the markets aren't looking too much at the 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.400 FX side equation. Obviously, we want to see what Banka 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:51.000 Japan does. Does it intervene in the markets to prop 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.880 up the end. If so, you may see some volatility there, 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:57.000 But the market really still looking towards rates as the 0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.559 more active trades we say that will give them the 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.079 bigger bang for the buck. Of course, the catches that 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.360 been burned how many times? I think the the US 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.439 core PC data, which again is the Federal reserves A 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.120 third measure inflation that comes out again this week, the 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.960 monthly data does if that stays elevated, then it raises 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:17.960 the question yet again, Well, the Fed signal three dots 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.840 sorry threeweight cuts in its dot plot should it actually 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.600 be two? Which't is not good for the trade that 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.880 years go lower. Having said that, if that data comes 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:31.400 in weak, then that will empower the bond balls to say, yes, 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:33.960 finally inflation is under control. 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:37.160 The path it has been broken, and you're more. 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:38.640 Like see in the front run them, so you'll see 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.280 treasury is more like being bid very very quickly into 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.040 this idea that finally yields are headed lower. 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.280 Yeah. I mean it's a bit tricky, isn't it, Because 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:51.480 that core PCE number, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.120 is seen as rising by zero point three percent. That 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:57.120 data comes out on Friday. You've also got the Eurozone 0:14:57.120 --> 0:15:00.440 in the Japanese inflation data, and it comes out again 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.040 on what is a holiday in a lot of countries, 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:06.000 on Good Friday, and then you've got Easter Monday, where 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:07.960 a lot of markets are also closed. So do you 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.480 think that could be tricky in terms of market timing. 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:11.840 Yes, definitely. 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:13.840 And it's just ironic the way it turned out, because 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.600 you're going to have thin liquidity on those days because 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:18.200 of the holidays, and a lot of traders will be off, 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:20.760 a lot of markets be closed, so thin liquidity will 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:23.960 more than exacerbate the move in whichever direction it goes. 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:26.600 As you said, the inflation data is supposed to come 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:28.720 out quite high, and it's quite solitary. 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:30.680 We say a point three percent month over. 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:32.840 A month, which is not really consistent with the fence 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:34.880 target of two percent and the hero of you have 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.800 at two point eight again very very sticky because it 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:43.080 was that before. So this idea is if if traders 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:44.800 have started to load up one way and they have 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.960 to get out of the trade inin liquidity positions, that's 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:51.120 definitely not ideal and you can see an exacerbated move. 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.600 This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. You're morning brief on the 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:57.720 stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:02.000 Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apples, Spotify, 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:03.960 and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:07.120 You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio, 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.840 the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:12.640 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:17.400 Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:18.920 I'm Caroline Hepka and. 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:21.520 I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:23.960 the news you need to start your day right here 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:29.520 on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.