WEBVTT - Best Of - Nick Wright's NFL Week 1 picks, predicting Chiefs' Super Bowl opponent, Belichick debut 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:02.480 Welcome to the Best of the Week for What's Right 0:00:02.560 --> 0:00:05.200 with Nick Right the best takes and moments from this 0:00:05.280 --> 0:00:09.840 week on the show. Enjoy. I want to recap what 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.360 we've done and then get to demand's picks and my 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:18.759 final picks. So we did six official If you want 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:24.000 to hear all thirty two overs and unders again, like rate, subscribe, review, 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:27.600 It's on YouTube, it's on iTunes', on Spotify, everywhere you 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:33.160 can get your podcasts, and you can hear my picks 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:35.880 for all thirty two teams. But there are six bets 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:40.400 that we are making. Okay, we are betting the overs 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:44.160 for the following teams with the following Juice Jags over 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:47.599 seven and a half minus one twenty five. I think 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.200 the Jags are going to make the playoffs. I think 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:53.000 Trevor is going to have a bounce back year. I 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:55.200 also think he knows this is kind of a make 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:58.280 or break year for him. He luckily already got paid, 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:00.600 but as far as him being concerned, are like a 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:04.440 no doubt franchise quarterback. They've got to be good. I 0:01:04.480 --> 0:01:06.600 think they will be, and they only have to win 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:10.440 eight games. The Bears over eight and a half at 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:13.880 plus one point fifteen. I like everything about the team. 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:17.240 I love the coach at least this. I love their 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:20.400 offensive coordinator who's also their head coach. I can't yet 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:22.959 say if I know Ben Johnson will be good at 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:25.160 the head coaching stuff. I know he's good at the 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:28.600 play calling stuff. I don't mind the tough love on Caleb. 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:32.119 So they'ren over. I have Kansas City. You just bet 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.280 the Chiefs over every single year. I mean it's since 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:38.120 Andy's been there pri Ma Homes. It has failed to 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:43.240 hit one time, and they if they only win, if 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.640 they go twelve and five, people would consider that a 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:49.000 bit of a disappointment and it would hit their over. 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:53.120 Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:56.360 bet of all of these. I think the Bucks have 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:58.960 a real shot to be the one seed in the NFC, 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:02.240 and I think that they are going to win at 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:06.760 least eleven games, maybe twelve or thirteen. That's minus one twenty. 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:09.240 The Raiders over six and a half at minus one 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:12.560 forty five. They're the team everyone thinks it's going to 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:14.000 be bad that I think it's going to be good. 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:17.280 And Atlanta over seven and a half at minus one 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:21.160 forty Again, they won eight games last year with Cousins 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:24.079 falling apart, and I think you know year or two 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:27.359 of Raheem Morris with the defense. Those are my overs demons. 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:31.000 Of those six, what is your favorite and what is 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:33.600 your least favorite of my six overs? 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:37.880 Then favorite, I gotta say, man, I think it's the 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:46.240 Jags over seven and a half. Least favorite. Uh, I 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:48.000 don't really. I guess if like, if I had to 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:53.280 choose one, my least favorite would be the Bears. 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:57.000 But like I like, I don't, but you don't hate it? Right? Yeah? 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:02.560 All right? Now? The unders six unders as well, Bengals 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:05.600 under nine and a half at minus one fifteen. I 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:09.400 just don't see a team with those. I think they 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:11.880 have real question marks on the O line and obvious 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:14.440 question marks all over the defense. And I think Zach 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.320 Taylor's seat is very hot. I don't think they're getting 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:21.560 to double digit wins. The Colts under seven and a 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.360 half at minus one thirty. This is my favorite of 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:26.560 the unders. I think they could end up with the 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:28.360 number one pick of the draft. I think that is 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.200 absolutely on the board. The Broncos under nine and a 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:36.960 half at plus one ten. I I think the Broncos 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:39.800 are going to get out to a decent start, people 0:03:39.840 --> 0:03:42.400 are going to be crowing. I think the final two 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:44.560 months of the season are going to be brutal for them. 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:49.880 I also think people have overestimated what they're going to 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:53.600 get from bo Nicks this year, and they're two major 0:03:56.120 --> 0:04:00.120 Their two major defensive editions are such injury risks of 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:03.160 me that I don't think. I don't know that they're 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:08.200 going to get the boost from them that people expect 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:11.480 under ten and a half weeks. Oh, if they get 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:14.280 off to a good start, Yeah, sure, absolutely, Yeah, that's 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:17.200 on the board. Cowboys under eight and a half minus 0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:20.520 one forty five. I did this before the Parsons trade. 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:23.560 I assume you know, odds have shifted on this, but 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.440 we've made these bets already. Vikings under nine and a 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:29.760 half minus one twenty five. I just think it's a 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:33.120 lot to ask in that division for de facto rookie quarterback. 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:36.080 And I just think the Niners win totals wrong. I 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:38.800 think the Niners are looked at miners in the schedule 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.520 soft as like a Tier two Super Bowl contender. I 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:45.240 don't look at them that way. I think that they are, 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:47.760 you know, a seven to eight win team, so I 0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:50.200 will take under ten and a half for the Niners. 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:55.680 My favorite there is, as I mentioned, the Colts demands 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:58.280 your your favorite, your least. 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:06.920 Favorite, least favorite, there is angles favorite favorite. Yeah, I 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:09.159 agree with the Niners. Yeah, the forty nine. 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.880 It's just a big number, man. They can win the 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:16.000 division and hit there under like that. It's just a 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:19.560 big number, all right, make miss playoffs, do it quickly. 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:25.040 Jags plus one eighty, Chiefs minus three eighty Raiders plus 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:28.440 three forty for a half unit, Giant Giants five to 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:32.039 one for a quarter unit, and the Bucks minus one seventy. 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:36.440 Those are make playoffs, miss playoffs. Steelers minus one forty, 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:40.800 Colts minus two sixty, Broncos plus one thirty, Cowboys minus 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:43.159 two to ten. Again, that one has moved, but I 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:47.280 got it in time. The Vikings plus one hundred two 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:50.479 units on that one, and the Cardinals minus one forty 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:54.680 and then a miss playoffs parlay. I did a few 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:58.480 of these last year. That screwed me. I'm only doing one. 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:05.440 Four teams that I think are likely to finish in 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:11.880 dead last in their division, Saints, Jets, Brown's, Colts all 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.719 to miss the playoffs minus one thirty five to two units. 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:19.680 I am acutely aware, demons that the Colts have a 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:22.279 chance to be the Jags for me this year or 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:26.080 two years ago. You remember, two years ago, I would 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:32.359 have had a hugely profitable preseason, you know, gambling shows. 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:36.000 But I had the Jags involved in four separate bets. 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:39.599 I lost them all, and because the Jags weren't as 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:41.960 good as I thought the Colts if the Cults are 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.200 really good, I lose this. I lose to miss the 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:49.520 playoffs bet and I lose. They're under Luckily, Daniel Jones 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:51.840 is greatly involved, so I'm not worried about that. 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:58.080 I'm still I'm still getting accustomed to the betting and stuff. Yeah, 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:01.640 parlaying four things to is just getting minus one? Is 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:04.880 that not terrible odds? Oh no, no, no, it's terrible value. 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:09.960 Okaym yes, you you're you're you are correct in telling 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:15.360 me that is a square wager. Okay, together, putting four 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:19.360 things together just for the opportunity that lay minus one 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:22.280 thirty five is terrible process. 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:26.080 But I'm seeing I just. 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:30.440 Feel yeah, no, you're right. I just feel like Saints, Jets, 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:34.520 Browns are just do a for the playoffs, and so 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:37.600 it's it's I have the Cults to miss the Platoves 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.160 at minus two sixty and then I have them basically 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.440 again to miss the playoffs at minus one thirty five. 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:45.040 So that's that's the way I'm doing it. It's not 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:49.560 good process. You're right, all right. The new picks. Before 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:53.240 we get to Demands's picks, which were wildly profitable last year, 0:07:55.240 --> 0:08:01.960 we are only doing three division winner bets. And I 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:06.000 can't believe the first two of these demands are only 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:09.360 minus one fifteen. Tell the audience the first one. 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:12.400 All right, no surprise here. We got the Chiefs to 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:15.240 win the West of the AFC West, sorry, at minus 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:15.960 one fifteen. 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:20.880 Yeah, they win it every year. Mahomes is thirty five 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:24.680 and five in his career in the division. They win 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:29.280 it by an average in Mahomes' career by four games. 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:33.640 Last year, the AFC West had three playoff teams. It 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:37.600 was such a tough division. They won it by four games. 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:42.319 Despite throwing week eighteen, minus won fifteen. I'll take the 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:46.520 Chiefs over the field. The next one. Another team, Demonse 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:50.760 that wins their division every year, only minus won fifteen. 0:08:50.840 --> 0:08:51.320 What is it? 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:55.360 We've got the Bucks to win the NFC South at. 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:59.680 Minus one fifteen, like the Saints and Panthers to me 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:05.160 are no shot no shotters, and the I just think 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:08.240 the Bucks are gonna be really good. And then the last, 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:11.640 So that's I love. I might like that even more 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:16.840 than I like the Chiefs one. But I the just because. 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:18.360 How weak the division is. 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:23.000 Yeah, exactly right. And then I found I found a 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:26.920 plus money parlay here Demons only two teams. 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:30.000 So we got a division winner. We got Baltimore plus 0:09:30.040 --> 0:09:33.560 Buffalo at plus one oh six. I'd say that's another 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:34.120 safe one. 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:38.280 I mean, that's really to me, just fading the Bengals. 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:41.360 Maybe I'm wrong. I'm not worried about the Steelers. It's 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:45.480 just maybe, you know, maybe the defense somehow with the 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:48.600 new decordinator is average. The offense is the same, and 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:52.640 they have an awesome year. But Baltimore and Buffalo are 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:56.439 such regular season juggernauts that putting them together at plus 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:59.480 one oh six to me makes sense. And then our 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:06.400 annual tradition Super Bowl EXACTA. Three years ago we had 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:10.880 Chiefs Niners, and the Niners found themselves in the conference 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:17.520 championship game. Last two years ago we had Chiefs Cowboys 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:21.800 and the Cowboys found themselves with twelve wins. Last year 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:25.320 we had Chiefs Bears, and the Bears had a season 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:29.520 from hell and missed the playoffs. This year, the Super 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:35.720 Bowl EXACTA at fifty five to one is drum roll please, Demonse. 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:39.319 We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:41.560 Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred. 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:47.720 How about the and then obviously spoiler Super Bowl exactly 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:48.840 with the winner. 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:52.880 Right, Kansas City defeat Tampa Bay at plus eleven thousand. 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:58.760 Indeed, So, Demanse, here's something I didn't even think about 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:04.079 when I made this pick. Brew mentioned it. The Chiefs 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:08.800 with Mahomes have been to five Super Bowls, all rematches, 0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:15.080 played Philly twice, played San Francisco twice. The one other 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:20.160 team they played Tampa Bay, another Super Bowl rematch bake 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:29.920 show against Patrick revisiting the greatest, the craziest college football 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:32.440 game ever played. Do you know about their college game. 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:39.120 Demonse, against each other? Yeah, I'm sure they each other up. 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:43.440 Hold on, well, let me, Demonse, so let me just 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:47.600 tell you real quick twenty sixteen, because they have played 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:51.080 in the playoffs before. All right, so the final score, Tomanse, 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:53.760 let me, I'm just actually hold on, let me just 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:58.280 go to Patrick Mahomes college stats. Final score was sixty 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:01.040 six to fifty nine, so that gives you a little 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:06.760 bit of a preview. It was Texas Tech where Baker 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:13.200 started against Oklahoma, and hold on, where is it here? 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:18.320 It is? The final stats are as follows. Uh. Joe 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:22.200 Mixon was in the game. He ran for two sixty okay, 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:26.400 and four touchdowns, but that wasn't the story. The story 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:31.680 was Baker. Baker was twenty seven of thirty six only 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:36.240 through thirty six passes for five hundred and forty five yards, 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.280 seven touchdowns, no picks. 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:42.599 Jesus okay, okay. 0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:51.760 Patrick Patrick was fifty two of eighty eight for seven 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:59.439 hundred and thirty four yards five touchdowns running well, No, 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:02.120 they did have running back go twelve carries for eighty 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.679 five yards and two touchdowns. That running back's name was 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:12.960 Patrick Mahomes. So Mahomes in that game combined for eight 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:18.079 hundred and ten yards, seven touchdowns, one pick. Bake Show 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:22.840 in that game never ran the ball through for five 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:26.360 forty five and seven touchdowns on just thirty six attempts. 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:30.280 Mahomes threw at eighty eight times. It is an all 0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:38.199 time legendary college football game. Yeah, yeah, October twenty second, 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:44.520 twenty sixteen all timer. And so they've played in the 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:48.800 playoffs before Patrick got hurt against the Baker was there 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:55.800 in the Browns and yeah that's my uh, that is 0:13:56.360 --> 0:14:02.840 most Super Bowl exact. Cannot wait. We are so excited 0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:06.920 to announce our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. 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If you were someone you know 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:29.520 as a gambling problem wants help, call one eight hundred 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.480 and nine with it. Gambling problem called one eight hundred 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:37.160 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:41.400 Twenty twenty four regular season, you went forty eight forty 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:45.360 and two, and your overall record was fifty six forty 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:48.280 four and three, and that also we got in the playoffs. 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:51.040 You also went undefeated in touchdown Genie. Now this wasn't 0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:53.080 every week, but we were undefeated. 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:56.040 I was very picky with when I went with the 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:59.000 Bruisers love a good touchdown, Genie. They love an octopus 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:01.160 bet in the Super Bowl. They we'll have a touchdown, Jeannie. 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.240 They love all these things. I was very choosy on 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.240 when I wanted to do it, and I didn't realize it, 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:10.640 but I did go undefeated on it. All right, five 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:12.760 picks every week? What's my first pick? 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:17.640 First pick? We've got Kansas City minus three versus the Chargers. 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:20.200 Yeah, it's a neutral site and they're only laying three. 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:24.680 It's not I think the Chiefs are the best team 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:31.000 in football. I think the Chargers are around the fourteenth 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:35.000 best team in football. I do not think any team 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:40.360 is more used to handling odd environments than Kansas City. 0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:45.040 Patrick is five and two against the spread and openers. 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:49.920 I understand Herbert is a really good against the spread 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.240 quarterback early in the season ten and five, but part 0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:58.000 of that is Patrick being five and two is even 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:00.800 more impressive when you consider the fact that the Chiefs 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:04.359 have become such a public team. Those lines are usually inflated. 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:07.600 Chargers in the other direction. You know, they haven't had 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:11.719 a ton of early season high high level expectations. I 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:17.760 just think I do not see I think that Trent 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:21.840 McDuffie is going to be able to neutralize Lad McConkie. 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.920 And with if that happens, how else are the Chargers 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:28.200 who are they throwing it to? Like? How are they 0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:32.199 moving the ball? And don't I know hardball is going 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:35.000 to want to run the No Rashwan Slater is a 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:39.600 big deal. The Chiefs minus three against the Chargers is 0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:43.880 my first bet of the year and spoiler a bit. 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:48.720 It is the only favorite I am taking in Week one. 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.240 Next pick Demonse, next Weick. 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:54.760 You got Miami plus one at Indian. 0:17:55.800 --> 0:18:02.359 Yeah, this is a pretty simple for me. You get 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:08.359 the Dolphins indoors, controlled climate, obviously fast track like that, 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:14.320 You get too a healthy like that, You get Tyreek 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:20.040 something to prove early in the year like that, and 0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:23.520 then you get a team in the Colts that I 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:26.920 believe might end up being the worst team in football 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:30.560 this year. It's certainly it's possible. I am getting a 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:34.680 point now. Obviously getting one point doesn't help you a lot. 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:40.920 It's you're really just picking a winner. Excuse me, I apologize, 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:47.560 But if the Dolphins, the Dolphins have any chance of 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:52.359 having a better season than I think the general public expects, 0:18:52.359 --> 0:19:01.800 from them. They must start fast, Colts, Pats, Bill's tough, Jets, Panthers, Chargers, 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:06.119 Browns like that. That's their opening slate because late in 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:13.240 the year we go, you go Ravens, Bill's Commanders, Saints, Easy, Jets, Steelers, Bengals, Bucks, 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:16.240 Pats like and a lot of cold weather games in there. 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.280 This is a as close to a Week one must 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:25.520 win for a team's playoff hopes as exist. I don't love, obviously, 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:32.959 the the Colts quarterback in Daniel Jones. I think Miami 0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:35.680 wins the game outright, and I think Miami's gonna be 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:37.760 able to move the ball in the Colts defense. I'll 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:39.760 take Miami plus one at. 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:44.560 Indy, and next you've got Cleveland plus five or Cincinnati. 0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:49.800 I do I love this? I don't. 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:50.720 Yeah. 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:53.800 Does it feel good including the Cleveland Browns and my 0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:59.919 Week one picks? Of course not. However, what was lost, 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.000 what's lost in the shuffle about the Browns in Week 0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:09.560 one is this, they'll be fine at quarterback this week now, 0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:14.800 once Flacco starts taking some hits, once the season starts progressing, 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:17.960 you know how fine are they going to be? Probably 0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:22.760 not at all, but this will probably be the best 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:28.719 quarterback situation they have all year. Cincinnati has Trey Hendrickson 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:32.320 coming off missing most of training camp, Shamar Stewart rookie 0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:36.000 pass rusher, missed a lot of the offseason, the first 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:40.200 game for a new defensive coordinator, and maybe most importantly, 0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:42.359 and this is a point I have been trying to make. 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:46.280 I have real concerns about since he's offensive line and 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:51.480 you got Miles Garrett, since he also so just desperately 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:55.520 needs a win, that I don't think this is at 0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:59.760 any point going to be a style points type of game. 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:03.400 I think this is going to be a man, if 0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:07.200 we're up three late, suck the air out of the stadium, 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:09.800 get out of there with a win. So I think 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:15.119 I think that, you know, twenty one to seventeen Cincinnati 0:21:15.720 --> 0:21:19.240 is a pretty likely outcome for this game. I'll take 0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:25.560 the five points. I'm it's a home divisional dog against 0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:29.720 a team that is awful every single year in Week one, 0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:35.400 and so Cleveland plus five against Cincinnati is the way 0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:39.600 I'm going. It's not calling a Cleveland win. I just 0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:42.760 don't think Cincinnati is gonna dominate the game because they 0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:44.639 never dominate early in the season. 0:21:45.000 --> 0:21:48.520 Next to look there to you, pops, we got Vegas at. 0:21:48.440 --> 0:21:49.960 Plus two and you don't like that one. 0:21:50.320 --> 0:21:53.320 It's it's yeah, because what if Cincinnati does what if 0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:55.679 they don't come out slow like they usually do. 0:21:55.640 --> 0:21:57.280 Well, then I'll lose the bet. 0:21:57.560 --> 0:21:59.800 Yeah, Divisional. 0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:02.280 I will also say, is here's the other thing we 0:22:02.320 --> 0:22:05.960 know about Flacco. Flacco loves chucking it deep and going 0:22:06.000 --> 0:22:09.119 for a back door cover like that is that's the 0:22:09.200 --> 0:22:14.639 other piece, Like could this be Cincinnati up twenty seven 0:22:14.920 --> 0:22:20.680 seventeen with ninety seconds left and Flacco is you know, 0:22:20.840 --> 0:22:23.960 throwing bombs and we end up stealing a back door 0:22:24.040 --> 0:22:25.200 cover for sure? All right? 0:22:25.280 --> 0:22:28.159 Next next you've got a Vegas plus two and a 0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:29.320 half at New England. 0:22:30.440 --> 0:22:36.199 Yeah. So this is, you know, basically just going with 0:22:37.240 --> 0:22:42.639 my preseason feel that the Raiders are better than people 0:22:42.680 --> 0:22:45.200 think they are now. I also think New England could 0:22:45.200 --> 0:22:48.320 be good, but iing New England is going to have 0:22:48.520 --> 0:22:54.280 real trouble scoring points this year. I like the rookie 0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:57.320 running back, I like Drake may I don't like the 0:22:57.400 --> 0:23:01.919 receivers at all. And where the Raiders are gonna be 0:23:01.920 --> 0:23:06.120 in trouble is against teams with explosive offenses. The Patriots 0:23:06.160 --> 0:23:09.240 do not have that, So I think that this is 0:23:10.320 --> 0:23:12.840 one of the few matchups all year where the Raiders 0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:16.480 defense is not going to be exploited. I think Max 0:23:16.560 --> 0:23:22.200 Crosby could have a big impact on that Patriots offensive line. 0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:25.200 And if I know Vrabel, he's going to game plan 0:23:25.760 --> 0:23:29.200 to just not let Max Crosby stripsack flip the game, 0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:34.239 which leads to conservative play calling and a lot of 0:23:34.240 --> 0:23:38.760 what he did at times in Tennessee, which is just 0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:41.640 keep it close and try to out execute them late. 0:23:42.160 --> 0:23:45.600 I think Geno is gonna come out firing. I obviously 0:23:45.680 --> 0:23:49.440 really like Ashton genty and I think the Raiders win 0:23:49.600 --> 0:23:52.800 this game. And I'm getting two and a half points. 0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:56.119 This feels to me like twenty one to twenty Raiders. 0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:59.879 So I'll take the Raiders plus two and a half. Also, 0:24:01.440 --> 0:24:04.600 Patriots won four games last year teams that won four 0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:07.120 if you were the previous year, and our Week one 0:24:07.280 --> 0:24:10.280 favorites are zero to five against the spread and the 0:24:10.359 --> 0:24:13.880 last five it's it's a rare thing that happens, and 0:24:13.960 --> 0:24:15.840 so I will go with the Raiders plus two and 0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:16.240 a half. 0:24:17.280 --> 0:24:21.760 Last, lastly, you've got Buffalo plus one versus Baltimore. 0:24:23.320 --> 0:24:27.440 Yeah, I mean, here's the thing. This is not anti 0:24:27.560 --> 0:24:30.920 Lamar at all. He's a great player and a great, great, 0:24:31.040 --> 0:24:37.400 great regular season player. No, it's it's simply this. If 0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:41.560 Buffalo is at home, they shouldn't be underdogs, that's all, 0:24:42.200 --> 0:24:44.160 you know what I mean, Like Buffalo is too good 0:24:44.200 --> 0:24:48.520 of a team to be a home dog, and I 0:24:48.560 --> 0:24:54.080 think that that is I also saw Baltimore last year 0:24:54.520 --> 0:24:57.119 when people thought, oh, they have an extra chip on 0:24:57.119 --> 0:24:59.080 their shoulder because that's the team that knocked him out 0:24:59.080 --> 0:25:02.200 of the playoffs in the Chiefs and the Chiefs controlled 0:25:02.240 --> 0:25:07.720 that game. And so this, by the way, is a 0:25:07.840 --> 0:25:13.720 very similar situation. Last year, it was Kansas City minus 0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:20.280 one and a half? Was it minus no? Yes, it 0:25:20.320 --> 0:25:24.320 was Kansas City minus one and a half against Baltimore 0:25:24.480 --> 0:25:29.879 in Kansas City. And that was why that likely play 0:25:30.720 --> 0:25:35.200 was almost such an awful beat because I had KC 0:25:35.400 --> 0:25:39.280 minus one and a half, case was up seven. They score, 0:25:39.440 --> 0:25:42.359 they think they score that touchdown, and then they're gonna 0:25:42.400 --> 0:25:45.639 go for two, which would have killed the bet. You know, 0:25:46.000 --> 0:25:47.960 Like if they go for two and they make it, 0:25:48.000 --> 0:25:49.680 they win. If they go for two and they miss it, 0:25:49.720 --> 0:25:51.679 they lose. Either way, the Chiefs couldn't win by a 0:25:51.720 --> 0:25:55.280 point and a half. But I just don't think Buffalo 0:25:55.359 --> 0:26:01.000 should be home dogs. And this'll be the only time 0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:04.760 where do they play the Chiefs, And by the way, 0:26:04.800 --> 0:26:07.400 they wouldn't be home dogs against they play the Chiefs 0:26:07.720 --> 0:26:10.239