WEBVTT - Ross: Western world is polarized

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg surveillance. If we got just a little

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<v Speaker 1>better than the worst productivity performance of any post war recovery,

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<v Speaker 1>that could make a big difference. I'm not convinced that

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<v Speaker 1>we're measuring GDP right. It doesn't feel like a two

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<v Speaker 1>percent world to me. It feels like a three percent world.

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<v Speaker 1>Fed his hemd us In, the dictates of the Phillips

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<v Speaker 1>curve model are simply that this business cycle will not

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<v Speaker 1>be allowed to accelerate. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the

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<v Speaker 1>world of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good

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<v Speaker 1>morning everyone, Michael McKee and Tim Keen worldwide Bloomberg Surveillance.

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<v Speaker 1>We welcome all of you Bloomberg Radio Plus and of

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<v Speaker 1>course out on Bloomberg dot Com on our radio stations

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg two Boston, Bloomberg eleven three. Oh here in eighty degree, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>do we get the eighty degrees today? Eighty degree? I

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<v Speaker 1>could say they're they're calling for about seventy five, and

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<v Speaker 1>usually they underplay that a little. So we'll see lunch

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<v Speaker 1>outside class outside today, Class out. I like that class

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<v Speaker 1>outside today. Remember that you've got nothing done. That's what

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<v Speaker 1>that was the whole point. But they class us. I

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<v Speaker 1>know they did never did that. At Yale University UM

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<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg FM Washington, Good morning in Baltimore, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course early morning to you and San Francisco. Serious and

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<v Speaker 1>XM across this nation. Bloomberg surveillance this morning brought to

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<v Speaker 1>my cone Resnick Accounting Tax Advisory. It can be hard

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<v Speaker 1>to navigate through economic uncertainty. Your business needs industry insight

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<v Speaker 1>and transformative advice to drive it forward. Find out why

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<v Speaker 1>at cone Resnick dot com. He is from Xavier High School.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a few years back. He's the vice chairman

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<v Speaker 1>of the Bank of Cypress. Is that true? Wilbert Ross

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<v Speaker 1>joins us right now, there's that any in former radio

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<v Speaker 1>DJ as well? What does the vice chairman of the

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<v Speaker 1>Bank of Cypress do? Well, it was like a lady

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<v Speaker 1>d in waiting for the chairman. Yeah, were the board meetings?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean we all have a stereo. Well, first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>I would suggest of Americans can't find Cypress on a map.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a different story. But after the crisis on a

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<v Speaker 1>Saturday morning X number of years ago, explained to us

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<v Speaker 1>how you go into Cyprus and what you do is

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<v Speaker 1>a vice chairman. Well, first we went into Cyprus because

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<v Speaker 1>we felt that the concern about the economy was being

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<v Speaker 1>very much overdone. UH. Cypriot economy is based on tourism

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<v Speaker 1>and based on being a corporate headquarters for companies wanting

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<v Speaker 1>a low tax jurisdiction. We think those two have been

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<v Speaker 1>during characteristics to them. And our general theory is that

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<v Speaker 1>if you own a big bank in a small country,

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<v Speaker 1>you really have bought a warrant on the affairs of

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<v Speaker 1>that country. So it starts with deciding do we believe

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<v Speaker 1>the Cypriot economy would recover, And indeed it has. It's

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<v Speaker 1>had positive GDP growth and I think as it exists,

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<v Speaker 1>the program that now will be after Ireland, the big

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<v Speaker 1>poster boy for the economic turnaround in Europe. Let me

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<v Speaker 1>um go to the intersection of politics and money here.

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<v Speaker 1>We were talking earlier about the exit polls UH in

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<v Speaker 1>Michigan and Mississippi showing enormous numbers of people who voted

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<v Speaker 1>in the Republican primary, suggesting they think the economy is

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<v Speaker 1>in terrible shape and they're very worried about it. From

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<v Speaker 1>where you sit, how is the economy? Well, I think

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<v Speaker 1>the people who were worried about it, have a right

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<v Speaker 1>to be worried because the economy has not been very

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<v Speaker 1>evenly distributed, and the people left behind have been really

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<v Speaker 1>more or less the middle class and or middle class people.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you look at the Trump phenomenon, and you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the Sanders phenomenon, that's a lot of where

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<v Speaker 1>they're drawing their support from. That segment of the economy

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<v Speaker 1>really has not recovered, if anything, has lost some ground,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're angry about it, What about in the segment

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<v Speaker 1>of the economy you occupy And I don't just mean

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<v Speaker 1>you personally. Obviously your businesses do well, but the people

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<v Speaker 1>you talk to, the businesses you deal with, are they investing,

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<v Speaker 1>are they seeing profits? Are they optimistic about the future. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think everybody is concerned about geopolitics, not just in

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<v Speaker 1>the US. I can't remember a time where there's been

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<v Speaker 1>more extremism, more polarization, and just about every big country around,

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<v Speaker 1>every big democratic society around the world. You look at Germany,

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<v Speaker 1>you look at Spain having trouble forming a government, you

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<v Speaker 1>look at it, the you look, you look, you look,

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the US. With these phenomena we have

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<v Speaker 1>in the primaries, it's a very strange time globally, How

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<v Speaker 1>does your Republican party establishment regroup and move forward? Is

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<v Speaker 1>this a one off or is this a new calculus

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<v Speaker 1>for Lincoln's party? Well? I think the establishment is a

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<v Speaker 1>self appointed designation and I don't know there's any officialdom

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<v Speaker 1>that says this is the establishment. This is not um.

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<v Speaker 1>And I do think, as I said earlier, that it

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<v Speaker 1>was very unfortunate that Mitt Romney went so far as

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<v Speaker 1>to say he would not vote for Trump if Trump

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<v Speaker 1>were the nominee. I think if you believe in the

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<v Speaker 1>two party system, as I do, the leadership of the

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<v Speaker 1>party who's elected the guy who gets to be the

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<v Speaker 1>nominee should expect that the party will coalesce around him,

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<v Speaker 1>and it shouldn't be well, well, only coalesce if it's

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<v Speaker 1>somebody we'd liked anyway, that's not a party that that's individuality.

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<v Speaker 1>But what was wrong with Romney's analysis of Trump? Was

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<v Speaker 1>there anything in there that was inaccurate? Oh, he's entitled

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<v Speaker 1>to his views, and I think for him to say

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<v Speaker 1>he would personally prefer another candidate, fine, everybody should be

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<v Speaker 1>able to do that. I think where he went too

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<v Speaker 1>far was saying who would not vote for the party's nominee.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't see how you can be a party loyalist,

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<v Speaker 1>especially a party establishment figure, and say, but I will

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<v Speaker 1>go against the will of the party. But you see

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump running a campaign based on racism, based on

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<v Speaker 1>appealing to the worst in society, with an economic plan

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<v Speaker 1>that no economist thinks makes any sense to the extent

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<v Speaker 1>he even has a plan, Uh, why would you vote

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<v Speaker 1>for him? Is there is there nothing that could be

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<v Speaker 1>beyond the pale in a Kennedy? No, it isn't. That

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<v Speaker 1>isn't the question beyond the pale. I think if you

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<v Speaker 1>wish to be the leader of a party, party loyalty

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<v Speaker 1>has to factor into it. Parties are not meant to

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<v Speaker 1>be a thing that comes and goes. I haven't liked

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<v Speaker 1>all of the nominees that the Republican Party has put

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<v Speaker 1>forward in in my senatorial races and congressional races, even

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<v Speaker 1>in presidential But I think either you believe in the

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<v Speaker 1>two party system or you don't. And if you believe

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<v Speaker 1>in If you don't believe in the two party system,

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<v Speaker 1>that's fine, then you ought to be for fragmentation, not

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<v Speaker 1>say I'm a leader of a party, but I'm only

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a leader. If everybody else agrees with me,

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<v Speaker 1>then the numbers I saw yesterday independent nationally listed as Republicans,

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<v Speaker 1>we've become independent America. How do the parties attract and

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<v Speaker 1>retain those voters? Well, I think it is fact that

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<v Speaker 1>most people who now call themselves independents used to call

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<v Speaker 1>themselves Republicans and got fed up with the goings on

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<v Speaker 1>in the party. So I think to some degree what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening now is some of those people are climbing back.

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of the Tea Party people came

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<v Speaker 1>out of the Republican Party mainstream. So I think you

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<v Speaker 1>have now the issue does the Republican Party need a redefinition?

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<v Speaker 1>And this is a critical distinction the Tea Party crew.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe they are comfortable with Senator Cruz as a general statement,

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<v Speaker 1>can they maybe can they move over? And can those

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<v Speaker 1>conservatives be comfortable with Mr Trump, who's got some very

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<v Speaker 1>different policies. Well that's that's obviously a big, very big question, um,

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<v Speaker 1>and it'll be answered pretty soon. UM. I think it

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<v Speaker 1>was very interesting to see the variety of jurisdictions in

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<v Speaker 1>which Trump has won. Uh, the evangelicals in South Carolina

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<v Speaker 1>going all the way to auto workers in Michigan. That

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<v Speaker 1>covers a pretty wide range of American population other than

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that he says he's a Republican. Now, why

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<v Speaker 1>would you vote for Donald Trump? What is it that

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<v Speaker 1>he could do for America? Well, I think he is

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<v Speaker 1>a leader, um and I think he's had very good

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<v Speaker 1>people hired in the past. People forget that when his

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<v Speaker 1>casinos went through the bankruptcies. Who was his chief financial officer,

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<v Speaker 1>Steve Bollenbach. What did Steve go on to do become

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<v Speaker 1>CEO of Hilton Hotels, did a very good job with

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<v Speaker 1>that and sold it for a great, huge fortune. So

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<v Speaker 1>he's had a history of having good people, and to me,

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<v Speaker 1>any kind of leadership is a function of having good

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<v Speaker 1>people in support of the number one person. But my

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<v Speaker 1>point is not so much to endorse Trump as to say,

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<v Speaker 1>either you have party that are coherent and stay together.

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<v Speaker 1>If the mass of the party nominates the candidates, they

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<v Speaker 1>should stick with it. Will Ross, Thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 1>w Ross and company with the comments on his Republican Party.

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Ross significant supporter of Governor Romney last time around.

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<v Speaker 1>Futures up ten, DALBT Futures up eighty two, Bright Fruit

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<v Speaker 1>forty dollars forty cents of barrel up sixty three cents.

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<v Speaker 1>Time now to check in with Michael R and get

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<v Speaker 1>the latest world end news national headlines like Mike Tom,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you very much. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says

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<v Speaker 1>there is a need for the party to unite around him.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump maintains though it would be premature to start toning

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<v Speaker 1>down to his aggressive campaign style, especially in the face

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<v Speaker 1>of what he calls vicious attacks from his rivals. Trump

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<v Speaker 1>won contests in Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawaii. Ted Cruz won

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<v Speaker 1>Idaho's primary yesterday. Bertie Sanders secured a narrow upset in

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<v Speaker 1>Michigan's primary. However, Hillary Clinton took Mississippi and now has

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<v Speaker 1>more than half of the delegates needed to secure the

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<v Speaker 1>Democratic presidential nomination. The two will meet for a debate

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<v Speaker 1>again tonight. French unions have slowed rail traffic around the

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<v Speaker 1>country with strikes. It is in protest of proposals by

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<v Speaker 1>President Francois Olan's government essentially would in the nation's thirty

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<v Speaker 1>five hour work week. Global news twenty four hours a day,

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<v Speaker 1>powered by our twenty four hundred journalists and more than

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<v Speaker 1>a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. Michael

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<v Speaker 1>bar to Michael, thank you so much. Michael McKee, Tom

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<v Speaker 1>King on economics, finance, investment, an international relation. This is

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg surveillance. Bloomberg surveillance is brought to you by a

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