1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I'm Akshatrati. This week, Evi's everywhere, all 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: at once. It wasn't long ago that electric vehicles were 3 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: seen as a novelty item that some eccentrics pursued despite 4 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: the many problems. The range was too short, the charging 5 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: too slow, the price too high. Now they're everywhere. Teslas 6 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: have gone from being the car of the uber ridge 7 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: to the car of the uber driver, and all the 8 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: major manufacturers have been forced to take the plunge into 9 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: making electric vehicles. The growth is staggering. In twenty sixteen, 10 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: just seven hundred thousand electric cars were sold globally. This 11 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: year that number will be over fourteen million. The charge 12 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: is clearly led by China, but evs are seeing a 13 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: rise in popularity all across the world. And yet despite 14 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: all the success, we are still way of meeting climate targets. 15 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 2: We're not on tracks. Even though it's gone really quickly, 16 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 2: we're not on track for the net zero scenario. The 17 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 2: net zero scenario is that pretty much for passenger car sales, 18 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 2: you need to phase out buster vehicle sales fully globally 19 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 2: by around twenty thirty five. 20 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: That's Colin mccracker head of Advanced Transport for Bloomberg NEF. 21 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: If you want to understand what's happening with electric vehicles 22 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: worldwide and where the industry goes next, he is the 23 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: person to talk to. Every time I read one of 24 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: his columns, I walk away learning something new. He recently 25 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: wrote about how China has reached peak gasoline demand, how 26 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,839 Speaker 1: global EV sales have breached one trillion dollars, and why 27 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: electric cars are winning because of consumers not politicians. Colin 28 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: joins us on Zero Today to share his thoughts on 29 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: how we get electric cars on track to meet climate goals, 30 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: why China has succeeded where others haven't, and when we'll 31 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 1: finally see more electric cars on the roads than those 32 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,919 Speaker 1: burning for fields. But I wanted to start by putting 33 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 1: to bed a myth that's persisted for too long. One 34 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: debate which kind of is dying? But I feel like 35 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: if it is dying, maybe it's time to put the 36 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: death nail in it. Do evs, when you take the 37 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: total emissions of making them and running them, cut carbon 38 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 1: dioxide emissions relative to an internal combustion engine or not? 39 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 2: Absolutely, unequivocally yes. 40 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 1: Even on one hundred percent coal powered grid. 41 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, if you have one hundred percent coal fired grid, 42 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 2: of which there are very few in the world, then 43 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 2: the benefits on a life cycle basis are pretty marginal. 44 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: It's sort of a ten to fifteen percent benefit over 45 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:47,119 Speaker 2: a new efficient internal combustion engine vehicle. But in most 46 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 2: other places it's a dramatic, dramatic reduction, so it might 47 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,679 Speaker 2: be eighty percent seventy percent depending on the country. You 48 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 2: can think of it another way in terms of payback. 49 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 2: So making a EV battery and the components associated with 50 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 2: it have a higher carbon footprint than making an internal 51 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 2: combustion engine in the US with current rid mix, you 52 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 2: pay back that higher upfront CO two burden in about 53 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 2: a year and a half of driving. Now in some 54 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 2: cases that's two years. In China it's more like five 55 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 2: or six years. But the point is that that vehicle 56 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 2: will continue to get cleaner over its life cycle as 57 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 2: long as we can keep getting the power infrastructure and 58 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: grid generation mix cleaner. And we're doing that. I mean, 59 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 2: you've done many shows on solar and on renewables that's 60 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 2: happening that you're not going to derail that trend. There's 61 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:33,919 Speaker 2: going to be more and more renewables on the grid, 62 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 2: and an internal combustion engine vehicle when it rolls off 63 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 2: the line, it's emissions profile is locked in for the 64 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 2: lifetime of its vehicle and slightly gets worse as the 65 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 2: efficiency can degrade. Now an EV isn't. You aren't locking 66 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 2: in the emissions. Its emissions profile changes over time and 67 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 2: it will continue to get better. So there's a lot 68 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 2: of ways you can make this look bad. You can say, oh, 69 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 2: a vehicle only goes one hundred thousand kilometers or sixty 70 00:03:58,120 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 2: thousand miles in its lifetime. It doesn't they go a 71 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 2: lot more than that. You can take outdated studies on 72 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 2: how much emissions are from making a battery. You can 73 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 2: look at old data on grid emissions intensity factors for 74 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 2: a country and assume they say stay frozen for fifteen years. 75 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 2: But again, all those are just really bad methodological assumptions, 76 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 2: and it really irks me and it works anybody who 77 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 2: works on this stuff to see those things come up 78 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 2: over and over again, because it's actually not that complicated 79 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 2: a calculation. If you use good current data on it, 80 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 2: you come unequivocally to the conclusion that evs have lower 81 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 2: life cycle SEO two emissions than comparable combustion cars today. 82 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 2: I think there's one other thing actually that's important to 83 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 2: mention there too, is that we're talking entirely about carbon here. 84 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 2: My view is that from a health point of view, 85 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 2: an urban air quality point of view, you can probably 86 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 2: justifying doing this even totally separate from the CO two benefits, 87 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 2: and you can see that health benefit immediately, and that's 88 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 2: just going to be more and more fuel for pushing 89 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: this harder from a policy point of view, especially in cities. 90 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 1: So let's start with a broad overview. What were you 91 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 1: predicting when you first started the job as an EV 92 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: analyst in twenty fifteen. How have those predictions panned out? 93 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, So, the main thing we were saying then was 94 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 2: that battery prices had already come down about sixty percent 95 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 2: over five years from twenty ten to twenty fifteen, and 96 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 2: we were predicting that trajectory was going to continue, and 97 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 2: then that was going to bring electrified transport into the 98 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 2: sort of economically viable category in many, many different segments 99 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: of transport. And that's effectively what has happened. The learning 100 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 2: rate for lithium ion batteries has largely held up the 101 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 2: technology has gotten better, energy density has improved, cycle life 102 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 2: has improved, safety has improved, but most importantly, cost has 103 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 2: continued to come down. And that's really why we are 104 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 2: where we are today. Policy has played a really big 105 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 2: role too, but it's an incredible technology success story on 106 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 2: the lithium ion battery front. And that was our main prediction. 107 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: Where have you been surprised in these ideas? If you 108 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 1: looked at yourself knowing what you knew in twenty fifteen 109 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: versus now, what in hindsight could you not have predicted 110 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: or did you not predict? 111 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 2: I think probably the biggest one is the speed at 112 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 2: which China has gone all out for electric vehicles. So, 113 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 2: just as a reference point, in August twenty twenty three, 114 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 2: here thirty eight percent of vehicle sold in China had 115 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,239 Speaker 2: a plug. That's pretty remarkable for the world's largest auto market. 116 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 2: And this is one of the tricky things about predicting 117 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 2: major changes on a consumer driven product is that you're 118 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 2: looking primarily from a technoeconomic perspective to start and thinking 119 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 2: about when do these things become cost competitive and all 120 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 2: these different factors around policy and economics and technology, But 121 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 2: ultimately this is a consumer product. And eventually what happens 122 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 2: is that consumer demand takes over, and that's essentially what 123 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 2: happened in China. We thought that probably wouldn't happen until 124 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five or twenty twenty six, because we were 125 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 2: looking at the technology and thinking, well, this is going 126 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 2: to take a bit longer to get price competitive. But 127 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 2: what has happened is that that happened several years sooner 128 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 2: than we thought, and then adoption just went way up. 129 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 2: I think we still probably got it better than most 130 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 2: out there, but I think it's important to recognize that 131 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 2: it has gone faster than we thought, particularly in China. 132 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 2: In other regions, I think we've got it more accurate. 133 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 2: In Europe, it's about where we thought it would be. 134 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 2: In the US, we've actually overshot it bit sometimes. But 135 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 2: I think the biggest miss is probably just, yeah, the 136 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 2: speed at which this has happened in China, and we're 137 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 2: still watching that. I mean, it continues to go. We're 138 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 2: off to the races, if you will, on EVY adoption 139 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 2: in China now. 140 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: And just so give a little bit of contact on 141 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: the numbers here. There were three million electric vehicles sold 142 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six million in twenty twenty one, ten 143 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 1: million in twenty twenty two, and the forecast from bloomagenif 144 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: is twenty seven million in twenty twenty six. Now that's 145 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: a global picture, and China dominates in this ecosystem. But 146 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: before we get to China, what has all this ev 147 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: mania done to oil? Because that's where this transition is 148 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: being driven. It is to try and drive down the 149 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: consumption of oil. There is clearly a growth in the market, 150 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: but has it really dented oil demand. 151 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 2: It's pretty modest so far, if we're honest. We do 152 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: this exercise every year where we look at all different 153 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 2: types of vehicles how much oil they're displacing. And our 154 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 2: estimate right now across all different types and we can 155 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 2: talk about on cars when we talk about buses and 156 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 2: trucks and two and three wheelers, but it's about one 157 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 2: point five million barrels a day. And that's against projection 158 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 2: for global consumption this year of around one one hundred 159 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 2: and three million barrels per day. So it's modest, but 160 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 2: I would say it's growing quite quickly and has the 161 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 2: potential to start to dent oil demand in the latter 162 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 2: half of this decade. I think the important thing to 163 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 2: remember is there's this lag between new vehicle sales, of 164 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 2: which evs are now quite a rising share, about twenty 165 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 2: percent in the most recent month. A vehicle sold globally 166 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 2: had a plug last month, which is quite remarkable. 167 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 1: Wow. 168 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the most recent data, so really really remarkable numbers. 169 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 2: But again, that's the share of the new sales. It 170 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 2: takes a long time for that to flow into fleet. 171 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,680 Speaker 2: There's about one point three billion cars on the road globally. 172 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 2: The vast majority of those still have an internal combustion engine. 173 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 2: It's a little over two percent of those that are 174 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 2: fully electric today. 175 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: There's always this interest in knowing when the demand for 176 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: oil will peak, and the business of predicting a peak 177 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,439 Speaker 1: is hard. And one of the peaks that you did 178 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: get right is that in twenty seventeen, the number of 179 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: internal combustion engine vehicles sold peaked. 180 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 2: And that was uncomfortable to call at the time, I 181 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 2: will say, because we made that call in twenty eighteen 182 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 2: and we could sort of see the cycle kind of 183 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:16,319 Speaker 2: turning a little bit, and yeah, we're now down. Internal 184 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 2: combustion engine vehicle sales are now down twenty percent from 185 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,719 Speaker 2: that twenty seventeen peak. By twenty twenty five, we think 186 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 2: they're down forty percent, and then there's just no real 187 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 2: route back, right. You got to be a bit careful 188 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 2: celebrating peaks because there have been some missed calls on 189 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 2: this where ten years later something starts to rev up again, and. 190 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: That's happening with cold right now. 191 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, actly. Cole's probably the most famous one of those. 192 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 2: But I'm reasonably confident we've got that right. I can't 193 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 2: really see a route back to growth for the internal 194 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 2: combustion engine. And actually the most interesting place to see 195 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 2: that is the Shanghai Auto Show. You go to the 196 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 2: Shanghai Auto Show and all of the design money, all 197 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 2: of the newest gadgets, all of the coolest looking cars, 198 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 2: all of them, all of them are eb's, all the 199 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 2: Chinese automakers, all of the money, all of the cool projects, 200 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 2: all of the smartest people. They're working on the evs, 201 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,200 Speaker 2: they're working on the electric platforms. The IC platforms are 202 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:07,199 Speaker 2: sort of left to wither. 203 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: In case you weren't sure, ICE stands for the internal 204 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 1: combustion engine. 205 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:14,719 Speaker 2: Even if they're still making up the majority of car 206 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 2: sales today, it's clear that growth is what people want, 207 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 2: not absolute market share, and growth is also what markets 208 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 2: tend to reward, not absolute market share. 209 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: So a lot of the time you're doing this, you're 210 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 1: spending in front of big spreadsheets of data. But on 211 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 1: a day to day basis, what do you drive? What 212 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: have you driven that's been crazy? What are the sort 213 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 1: of fun things you've done being the ev guru that 214 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: you are. 215 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think sometimes people think we just get to 216 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 2: go around and drive all these latest supercars or something 217 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 2: we really don't do. I have driven most of the 218 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 2: sort of mass produced models right now. My current vehicle 219 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 2: is a Volkswagen I five, which I bought last summer. 220 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 2: Happy with it, Yeah, happy with it. It's great, five 221 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 2: hundred klometers range, does whatever it needs. When we ever 222 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 2: we do road trips, the kids need to stop and 223 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 2: pee long before we ever have to recharge the cars, 224 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,319 Speaker 2: so I've had no issues at all. I'm aware though 225 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 2: that I am. I have home charging in this apartment, 226 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 2: which I think that gets at one of the challenges 227 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 2: is in some places where apartments don't have home charging, 228 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 2: there's still some challenges there to overcome in terms of 229 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 2: getting people to be able to recharge easily. 230 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: Let's say China is the giant when it comes to EV's, 231 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: but we should acknowledge you live in Oslo, which technically 232 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 1: is the capital of EV's. 233 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, it's a very high percentage here. I look 234 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 2: out the window and I can see all the new 235 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 2: evs whenever they hit the market, whether it's a Chinese 236 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 2: one or an American one, or a European or Japanese one, 237 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 2: you see them on the road right away here in Oslo, 238 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 2: which is fascinating. There's a huge amount of consumer choice, 239 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 2: and that's because it's a market that went early, that 240 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 2: built a lot of charging infrastructure, and where now ninety 241 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 2: percent of sales are already plugins. This market is kind 242 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 2: of done, essentially, we're now just waiting for the fleet 243 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 2: to turn over. 244 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: China is by far and away the biggest purchase of EV's, 245 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: the biggest maker of EV's. Last year, it accounted for 246 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: sixty percent of all sales. Why has China been such 247 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: a success story, and even more of a success story 248 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: than you predicted it could be. 249 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 2: I think it's been a combination of factors, and they've 250 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 2: all come together quite well. The first one has been 251 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 2: government policy support. So the government has been very clear 252 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 2: from quite early on that it sees new energy vehicles 253 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 2: as which is their term for fuel cell, mattery, electric 254 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,199 Speaker 2: and plug and hybrid as the future, and they've supported 255 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,599 Speaker 2: different stages of policy to do that. So at the 256 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 2: beginning it was all about pushing government purchasing towards that, 257 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 2: so all the government fleet vehicles and that sort of thing. 258 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 2: Then there was this other phase of pushing the automakers 259 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 2: more strongly into it through its new energy Vehicle credit 260 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 2: system and also city policies, which played a big role 261 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 2: in making it harder for end consumers to buy an 262 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 2: internal combustion engine. You need to get a license plate 263 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 2: in a major Chinese city. That usually involves a lottery 264 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 2: or an auction system, which is kind of unheard of 265 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 2: to people in North America, the idea that you might 266 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 2: have to wait to get a license plate even if 267 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 2: you already have the money to buy a car. But 268 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 2: that's how it works in a lot of the big 269 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 2: Chinese cities because they've been concerned about congestion. 270 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: You can't take our freedoms away in America, can you? 271 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 2: Yes? Or other places too. I mean, I think if 272 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 2: you told people in Europe that they had the money 273 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 2: to buy a car, but they can't get a license 274 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 2: plate for it, they might get pretty upset as well. 275 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 2: So that has been a big part of it too, 276 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 2: because evs were allowed to go around that in the 277 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 2: biggest cities, and you could get a license plate right 278 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 2: away or at least on a shorter timeframe if you 279 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 2: were putting an EV on the road. So China declared 280 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 2: war on urban pollution, and one of the best things 281 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:24,199 Speaker 2: you could do to clean up urban air quality is 282 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 2: electrified vehicles. So places like Shenjen, you go to them, 283 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 2: they electrified the buses fully in twenty eighteen, all the 284 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 2: taxis a large portion of the passenger vehicle fleet is 285 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 2: now electric. It's pretty clean, and you notice the air 286 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 2: versus some of the other ones that are further behind that, 287 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: the air quality is better. So that was a big 288 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 2: part of that, that sort of policy push that factored 289 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 2: in both national, regional and local governments. The other one 290 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 2: is just that the Chinese automakers were never really globally 291 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 2: competitive in the internal combustion engine vehicle market. And if 292 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 2: you look at the biggest economies in the world, if 293 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 2: that's the US, Japan, Germany, all those other ones, had 294 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 2: outsized domestic auto industry that exports to the world, and 295 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,959 Speaker 2: China didn't, right, And so they recognize that there's a 296 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 2: window of opportunity there and sort of a focus of 297 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 2: industrial policy to keep that window open and jump through it, 298 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 2: to leapfrog a little bit, and therefore built out a 299 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 2: lot of the supply chain necessarity to do that. So 300 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 2: the battery manufacturing capacity in China is huge. There's enough 301 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 2: batteries manufactured in China this year to more than meet 302 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 2: global ev demand and stationary storage demand. There's actually over capacity, 303 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 2: so that supply chain build up was really important. And 304 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 2: then the last one is just that Chinese consumers tend 305 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 2: to adopt new technologies faster than their counterparts in North 306 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 2: America or Europe. And some of that is due to 307 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 2: a younger average age of the buying population, but some 308 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 2: of that when it comes to cars, I think is 309 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 2: because there's been this huge rise of the middle class 310 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 2: in China and they may not have the same expectations 311 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 2: over many generations of exactly what a car trip might 312 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 2: be or what a car exactly should do. And you 313 00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 2: think about if you grew up in North America, maybe 314 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 2: went for a roach of with your grandparents, your parents 315 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 2: in college, and you sort of have this very set 316 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 2: idea of exactly what the car should do for you 317 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 2: and what it should be. There's something in that as well. 318 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 2: With a newly upwardly mobile Chinese middle class. Many of 319 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 2: them are the first car buyers in their family, and 320 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 2: I think that makes them a little more flexible to 321 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 2: adopting new technologies. And that's certainly born out in the data, 322 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 2: this Chinese willingness to adopt new technologies, probably faster and 323 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 2: sooner than in other regions of the world. 324 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: In my book Climate Capitalism, I go through the story 325 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: of One Gang, this Chinese science minister at the center 326 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: of this concentrated period between twenty nine and twenty seventeen, 327 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: when China ended up spending, through one estimate a conservative one, 328 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: something like sixty billion US dollars on trying to build 329 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: this industry. In that process, it has captured the battery 330 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: supply chain. Batteries are at the heart of the electrification story, 331 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 1: and we are starting to see a reaction from other 332 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: regions to this dominance. Certainly, batteries have made regions like 333 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: Europe and North America sit up and try to do 334 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: something about it. How much do you think China's hold 335 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: over the battery supply chain could be a hindrance for 336 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: the kind of ev growth we need to be able 337 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: to meet net zero goals, which we still aren't on 338 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: track for. 339 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of the most interesting tensions that's 340 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 2: really come up in the last two years is that 341 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 2: there has been this goal of getting as much clean 342 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 2: energy and clean technology deployed as possible, and that has 343 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 2: hinged on cost reductions, right, and cost reductions have been remarkable, 344 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 2: But now we're entering an era where there are competing priorities. 345 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 2: There is this other priority of where do the jobs go, 346 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 2: and balance of trade and R and D investment and 347 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 2: essentially industrial policy, and in many ways that is supportive 348 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 2: of rapid decarbonization, but in other ways it can run 349 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 2: counter to it. What we're seeing is that we are 350 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 2: going to see more and more regionalization of these markets, 351 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,199 Speaker 2: right as countries or regents say, look, we want to 352 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 2: capture more of the economic benefits and not just be 353 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 2: consumers of these technologies. And in the near term, I 354 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 2: think that might increase costs. It's very hard for me 355 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 2: to say that, Look, a battery made in the US 356 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 2: is going to be cost competitive with a battery made 357 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 2: in China, given the scale of inexperience of the Chinese 358 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,679 Speaker 2: manufacturing sector. But I think in the long term this 359 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 2: is sort of a race to the top. All of 360 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 2: this money and all of this capital and ingenuity that's 361 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 2: being invested in these regions to try and compete with 362 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 2: China is fundamentally a good thing for the transition, but 363 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 2: it might be a question of sort of a step 364 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 2: or two back to make two or three steps forward. 365 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 2: I often hear this argument that it's done in China 366 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 2: won and it's over, and I totally get where that's 367 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 2: coming from. Our own data suggests, look you look at 368 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 2: the share of solar cell manufacturing, or the share of 369 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 2: battery manufacturing, or all the battery components and raw material refining, 370 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 2: China absolutely dominates. But it is worth remembering that only 371 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 2: about a little over two percent of all cars on 372 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 2: the road today are electric. There is a huge market 373 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 2: still to play for, and we are seeing a lot 374 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 2: of investment in the next generation of battery technologies, so 375 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 2: things like solid state batteries, next generation anodes, sodium ion batteries, 376 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 2: that stuff is still up for grabs. It doesn't mean 377 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 2: China doesn't have a head start, but I wouldn't underestimate 378 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 2: the forces at play once you really get the innovation engines, 379 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 2: particularly in the US going, China has a dominant lead, 380 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 2: but the story's not fully written yet. 381 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,960 Speaker 1: One place where these tensions are showing up is in Europe. 382 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: In September, President Ursula vonder Lean announced approbe looking at 383 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: whether cheap Chinese evs are flooding the European market and 384 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 1: distorting prices. 385 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:47,479 Speaker 3: Global markets are now flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars, 386 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 3: and their price is kept artificially low by huge state subsidies. 387 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: The probe might sound counterintuitive. Surely cheap evs are a 388 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 1: good thing for meeting climate goals. About ten percent of 389 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: electric cars sold in Europe are from Chinese owned companies. 390 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: Most of the evs are sold by European companies, and 391 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: yet the fear is that tens of millions of people 392 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 1: employed by the auto industry will suffer if China continues 393 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: to eat a bigger share of the market. That misses 394 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: a crucial point. Many of the cars sold by European 395 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: brands are already made outside of Europe, So is there 396 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 1: anything to the probe beyond protecting a European car industry 397 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 1: struggling to catch up. 398 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 2: I think some of this might just be politics. It 399 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 2: might be to show that, hey, we're there to ensure 400 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 2: that European industry is successful. Some of those manufacturers are 401 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 2: little bit behind and then are pushing politicians to say, 402 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 2: we need a grace period. You need to help us 403 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 2: with a grace period to catch up, because we didn't 404 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:47,879 Speaker 2: take this as seriously as we should have. Were a 405 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 2: bit flat footed. And one consistent thing over the last 406 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 2: twenty years is that a lot of automakers opposed steadily 407 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 2: tightening of fuel economy regulations. They always thought to water 408 00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 2: them down. And what that meant is that they did 409 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 2: invest as much in electrification, and in the European automaker's case, 410 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 2: a lot of them invested heavily in diesel. But consumers 411 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 2: do want to buy evs and now they are to 412 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 2: be honest behind compared to Tesla and the Chinese automakers. 413 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 1: After the break, can any other tech derail the success 414 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: of electric vehicles? Or are battery powered cars here to stay? 415 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 1: For passenger cars? Are battery electrics the future? Like we 416 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: have this hydrogen field, cell vehicle. We have this plug 417 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 1: in hybrid situation going on for some time, but as 418 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: you see, it is the future battery electric and nothing else. 419 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 2: I think the future is electric and plug in on 420 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 2: the hydrogen point, I think that's dead. For passenger cars, 421 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 2: sales are falling. They fell last year. The only market 422 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 2: that's really keep it alive is South Korea, where the 423 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 2: incentives are extremely generous. They're also extremely generous in California, 424 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 2: tens of thousands of dollars available in incentives, and even 425 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 2: then the numbers are very, very modest. Even if the 426 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 2: passenger fuel cell vehicle fleet were to double every three 427 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 2: years from now all the way out to twenty forty, 428 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 2: that's the most optimistic scenario I can come up with, 429 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,200 Speaker 2: they would still only be about point two percent of 430 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 2: the global vehicle fleet in twenty forty, So irrelevant from 431 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 2: an emissions reduction point of view, irrelevant from a climate 432 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 2: point of view. Where it's more interesting is within plug 433 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 2: in vehicles. So about seventy five percent of all plug 434 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 2: in vehicles today are battery electrics, but there's still a 435 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 2: decent number of plug in hybrids sold. 436 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 1: A plug in hybrid is a car with an internal 437 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 1: combustion engine and a battery pack that can be recharged 438 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 1: with an external cable. The car will run on the 439 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: battery pack until it's out of juice and then switch 440 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 1: to burning fossil fuels. 441 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 2: There's still a decent number of plug in hybrids sold, 442 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 2: and the place where that's really interesting is China. So 443 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,919 Speaker 2: the plug in hybrid market for a while was driven 444 00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 2: primarily by Europe, and it was a compliance market, so 445 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 2: automakers had to meet certain CO two targets for their vehicles. 446 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 2: So you saw this large number of questionable plug and 447 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 2: hybrids with very short ranges. They were able to game 448 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 2: the system a little bit, but people weren't driving them 449 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,160 Speaker 2: in electric mode all that often. What's kind of different 450 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 2: about what's happening in China is that there are plug 451 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 2: and hybrids coming out that are not purely designed for 452 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 2: regulatory compliance. They're designed for consumers to actually use them 453 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 2: in electric mode. They have ranges of sort of one hundred, 454 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty kilometers, and they're often being adopted 455 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 2: in places where the public charging infrastructure isn't that great yet. 456 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 2: I genuinely think that we are going to all electric 457 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 2: in the twenty thirties. I think the twenty twenties there's 458 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 2: still an interesting role for plug and hybrids to play. 459 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 2: The other segment that I would just highlight there is 460 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 2: that it's proving a little bit difficult to fully electrify 461 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 2: the biggest pickup trucks in North America, the Chevy Silverado, 462 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 2: the F one fifty. These are big trucks, right You 463 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,360 Speaker 2: need a very big battery pack. It's challenging right now 464 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 2: with the economics where they are today to make that 465 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 2: fully cost competitive. Maybe Tesla can do it with the 466 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 2: cyber truck, but I would say actually in North America, 467 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 2: it would be beneficial if somebody started offering a really 468 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,680 Speaker 2: good plug in hybrid mid sized pickup truck that could 469 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 2: get one hundred, one hundred and fifty kilometers a range 470 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 2: in all electric mode and could be priced in that 471 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 2: sort of forty to fifty thousand dollars range instead of 472 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,159 Speaker 2: that sixty to seventy which is where a lot of 473 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 2: the big electric pickup trucks are coming in. 474 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: Looking at the innovations and sticking to passenger cars, you 475 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 1: talked a little bit about batteries and how getting faster 476 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,719 Speaker 1: charging batteries, higher energy density, which is essentially same battery 477 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 1: but longer range and of course lower cost are crucial. 478 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 1: But what other innovations in the EV sector are you 479 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 1: looking out for and that would make this transition go faster. 480 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 2: One of the ones that's kind of underappreciated is that 481 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 2: we're just now at the stage where a lot of 482 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 2: the large manufacturers have dedicated battery electric vehicle architectures where 483 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 2: they've built their evs from the ground up, and that 484 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,479 Speaker 2: just enables better performance, better integration, better efficiency. You can 485 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 2: move to a higher voltage architecture which allows for much 486 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 2: faster charging as well, as you see some of these 487 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 2: latest vehicles coming out capable of a three hundred and 488 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,680 Speaker 2: fifty kilowat charge, some even higher, which means you'd get 489 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 2: into that sort of fifteen minutes to get from twenty 490 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,200 Speaker 2: percent to eighty percent of the battery. That's a pretty 491 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 2: quick stop at that point. It's not gasoline, but by 492 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 2: the time you stop and go in and get a coffee, 493 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 2: that's enough. Interestingly, we're also seeing and this gets a 494 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 2: bit away from the EV part of it, but we're 495 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 2: seeing more and more of the automakers use their evs 496 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 2: as where they put their newest other tech, so their 497 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 2: vehicle connectivity, their autonomous driving features, heads up displays, all 498 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,919 Speaker 2: these cool things. They're putting them in their evs first 499 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 2: as a way to make those vehicles more attractive, and 500 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 2: then they will diffuse them out to their other vehicles. 501 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,640 Speaker 2: And that's actually quite a fascinating strategy because then those 502 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,160 Speaker 2: become the cool, tech rich vehicles where the newest stuff happens, 503 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 2: and the people who maybe didn't care as much about 504 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 2: the electric drive train but want access to that tech, 505 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 2: they're buying those ones because that's where you find the 506 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 2: latest lane keeping assist or a mamatic emergency braking, or 507 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 2: level three autonomy, all these newer features that are starting 508 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 2: to come out. So I think that's actually quite an 509 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 2: interesting trend to watch too, is that more and more 510 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 2: of that is being stuffed into those evs. 511 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 1: Will we ever see an EV that charges as quickly 512 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 1: as it takes to fill up a petrol car. 513 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 2: No, I don't think you will, and I don't think 514 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 2: that's the right goal either. Even if you could from 515 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 2: the battery point of view, and it would take a 516 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 2: lot of engineering to do that, the grid connection, you 517 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,919 Speaker 2: would need to do that for multiple vehicles at a 518 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,760 Speaker 2: time would be astronomical and you would risk damaging the 519 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 2: battery to do it in this sort of a few 520 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,640 Speaker 2: minutes timeframe. But again, I don't think that's what you need. 521 00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 2: And if you look at the data on where people 522 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 2: are charging, most people are still doing most of their 523 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 2: charging at home, so we don't need to replicate the 524 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 2: existing refueling infrastructure in the exact way. Is because most 525 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 2: of the energy delivered to the car is going to 526 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,400 Speaker 2: come when the car is stationary. I think you will 527 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 2: see more vehicles moving towards the capability to accept a 528 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,399 Speaker 2: higher charge, but I don't think it goes up forever. 529 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 2: I think there's diminishing returns on making a vehicle capable 530 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 2: of thing that the chargers and the grid themselves are 531 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 2: not capable of. 532 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,280 Speaker 1: Now, you mentioned that big SUVs and these pickup trucks 533 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 1: in the US are really hard to electrify, not because 534 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 1: there is no technology to do it, but because of 535 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,159 Speaker 1: the amount of batteries that need to go in it, 536 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,919 Speaker 1: and the price of batteries still is high. So should 537 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: we just be pushing for smaller cars? 538 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 2: Yes, I mean unequivocally yes, It's always been better from 539 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,560 Speaker 2: an environmental point of view to drive a smaller vehicle. 540 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,199 Speaker 2: That's still true in the EV world. Just because we 541 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,359 Speaker 2: switch to electric drive trains, it doesn't mean that everyone 542 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 2: should everywhere drive the biggest vehicle they can. A small 543 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 2: vehicle is still better. An EV is still is better 544 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 2: than a combustion vehicle. But we should be both pushing 545 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 2: for smaller lighted vehicles and electric vehicles at the same time. 546 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 1: The electric vehicle story from a car perspective has been 547 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,439 Speaker 1: going gangbusters, and yet we are still behind on net 548 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,199 Speaker 1: zero goals. So what do we need to do to 549 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:56,440 Speaker 1: get the passenger car sector to get on track? Policy 550 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 1: banning the sales? What are the tools in the r 551 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:01,479 Speaker 1: and all that need to be thrown at this? 552 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's an important point that you've made. We're 553 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,119 Speaker 2: not on track. So even though it's gone really quickly, 554 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 2: we're not on track for the net zero scenario. The 555 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 2: net zero scenario is that pretty much for passenger car sales, 556 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 2: you need to phase out combustionion vehicle sales fully globally 557 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 2: by around twenty thirty five, and even that requires some 558 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 2: early retirement of vehicles in the twenty forties to get 559 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 2: some off the road. And that's just because vehicles last 560 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 2: roughly fifteen years. So if you say net zero by 561 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 2: twenty fifty, net zero vehicles only by then you need 562 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,720 Speaker 2: to work back to that. So I think you do 563 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,159 Speaker 2: need a stronger policy push. Still, it's very encouraging to 564 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 2: see things like the Inflation Reduction Act, which are putting 565 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 2: significant dollars towards driving more ev adoption in the US, 566 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 2: and also supporting federal funding for charging infrastructure in the 567 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:46,119 Speaker 2: US is really starting to flow now. So whenever we 568 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 2: talk about the scenarios for what happens in the future, 569 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,399 Speaker 2: it's important to say what policy does this assume. What 570 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 2: we call our economic transition scenario assumes no new policy, 571 00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,359 Speaker 2: because I'm not in the business of forecasting whether Trump 572 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 2: or Biden or going to win the next election and 573 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,160 Speaker 2: what policy platforms they might roll out if they do. 574 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 2: But policy really matters, And what you can safely say 575 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 2: is that in places where there is no supportive policy, 576 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 2: there's very very little ev adoption, and in places where 577 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 2: there's a lot of policy, there's a lot of ev adoptions. 578 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 2: So you do still need a stronger policy push. I 579 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 2: think you need a few more automakers to come off 580 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,680 Speaker 2: the fence a little bit more, particularly the Japanese ones. 581 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 2: And also we shouldn't absolve them of responsibility that many 582 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 2: of them lobbied against or sued the California government over 583 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,679 Speaker 2: the zeromissions vehicle mandate in Toyota's case, so they're not 584 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 2: blameless in that. Also, I do still think there's a 585 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 2: big role for continued R and D investment in the 586 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:42,000 Speaker 2: technologies that enable this, because a breakthrough on next generation 587 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 2: battery chemistries could make this all go faster. We're seeing 588 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 2: a lot of rumblings right now in sodium ion batteries. 589 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,800 Speaker 2: So far it's looking like it's going in probably cheaper 590 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 2: cars or two to three wheeled vehicles, but a big 591 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 2: advance in another battery chemistry could blow this wide open. 592 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 2: And I think we shouldn't stop investing in that because 593 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 2: the route from laboratory and science through to engineering and 594 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 2: manufacturing is still take some time. So I think that's 595 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 2: another area where you should continue to see a big push. 596 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 1: Do you think the success of electric cars sort of 597 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 1: distracts from bigger debates that we need to be having 598 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 1: around encouraging less car use and more public transport use, 599 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 1: and whether governments are directing their subsidies, subsidies which are 600 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,240 Speaker 1: necessary for this transition in the right places. Today. 601 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 2: This is a tricky question. And the longer I spend 602 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 2: with data on global emissions from transport of all types, 603 00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 2: the more I'm sure that you kind of need all 604 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 2: of the above. So when you talk to the urbanist crowd, 605 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,520 Speaker 2: they say, look, no, evs aren't the solution. It should 606 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 2: all be active transport and public transport. When you talk 607 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 2: to the pure car people, they're skeptical of those things. 608 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 2: You need all of the above. You absolutely need more 609 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,000 Speaker 2: public transit, you need more active travel, you need more 610 00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,080 Speaker 2: urban density so that people don't have to move around. 611 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 2: You probably need congestion pricing, and you need over a 612 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 2: billion electric and you shouldn't avoid that. Policymakers should not 613 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,920 Speaker 2: avoid that conclusion. You need all of it. But you 614 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 2: do need over a billion electric vehicles on the road. 615 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 2: And that's just because we've left this pretty late, like 616 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 2: we there's not a lot of time to get global 617 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 2: emissions under control. And even in places where you have 618 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 2: huge amounts of active transport, and again this isn't to 619 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 2: disparage those, but take the Netherlands. The Netherlands is probably 620 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 2: the most famous example of cycle friendly country. It's got 621 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:30,000 Speaker 2: great infrastructure, it's got great cycling culture, great supportive policy. 622 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 2: Over many years, it's about nine percent of all kilometers 623 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 2: traveled are by bicycle. In the about seventy percent are 624 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 2: by car. And the Netherlands is small, rich, densely populated, temperate, 625 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 2: and again has this culture of cycling. So that's got 626 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 2: to be the upper bound for a place like the US. 627 00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 2: It's just not that easy to do that to achieve 628 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 2: that same level of cycling adoption in other countries. So, yes, 629 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 2: you need more active transport, you need all these things, 630 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 2: but you do need a lot of electric vehicles as well. 631 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 1: You're going to break Oscar Boyd's heart as a producer 632 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 1: on zero who's obsessed with biking. 633 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:05,720 Speaker 2: I should just say that is how I get my 634 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 2: kids around the city. I have a bicycle and a buggy. 635 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 2: I take two kids, drop them off at nursery every day. 636 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 2: That's how I get around. Big believer in active transport. 637 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 2: It's just we need to be realistic about what each 638 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 2: thing can contribute in terms of global CO two emissions reductions. 639 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 1: When will there be more electric vehicles on the road 640 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 1: than fossil fuel powered cars. 641 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 2: When it comes to the passenger vehicle segment again, because 642 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,600 Speaker 2: it takes a long time to turn over the fleet, 643 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 2: even when new sales largely go electric. In our economic 644 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 2: transition scenario, it's about twenty forty one before evs are 645 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 2: the majority of passenger vehicle cars on the road. 646 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 1: Globally, we'll be old men by that time. But time, 647 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 1: I'm going to hold you to it and come back 648 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:45,920 Speaker 1: to you in twenty forty one and then be like, 649 00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 1: how wrong will you? 650 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 2: I'm happy to be proved wrong. I will say. My 651 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 2: desire to see urban air quality improved and to see 652 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 2: rapid decarbonization is much much stronger than my desire to 653 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 2: be right about any of this. 654 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 1: I've always lived in cities, so I don't really drive 655 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 1: all that much, and yet I cannot stop thinking about 656 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 1: electric vehicles for all the reasons Colin mentioned. They are 657 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 1: a huge part of the energy transition, and there's so 658 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,840 Speaker 1: much new tech going into making these cars better and 659 00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 1: more efficient. Cars are only half the story, though. Join 660 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 1: us for a future episode of Zero, where we'll hear 661 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 1: from Colin about how other forms of transport are being electrified. 662 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 1: The good pits and the ugly ones. If you'd like 663 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 1: to dig deep into the subject, I have a book 664 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,760 Speaker 1: coming next week called Climate Capitalism, and it has two 665 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 1: chapters exploring China's EV revolution, one of which follows the 666 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,240 Speaker 1: career of One Gang, who was China's Minister for Science 667 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,840 Speaker 1: and Technology during much of that early EV boom. If 668 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 1: you'd like to learn more about that and other stories 669 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 1: of climate action, check the show notes for a link 670 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,320 Speaker 1: where you can pre order the book. Thanks so much 671 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,680 Speaker 1: for listening to Zero. If you like this episode, please 672 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 1: take a moment to rate and review it, Subscribe on 673 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Send it to a friend or 674 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 1: someone with range anxiety. Get in touch at zero pod 675 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot Net. Zero's producer is Oscar Boyd and 676 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 1: senior producer is Christine driscoll Our. Theme music is composed 677 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:23,080 Speaker 1: by Wonderly Special Thanks as always to Kira Bindram i'm Akshadrati. 678 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 1: Back next week.