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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: Good, all right. Here we go the test, throwing into step.

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Speaker 2: We're saying it's a cash to stop. We see most

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Speaker 2: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: ultimate kabai you want.

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Speaker 1: To pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are under way.

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Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I am your host, Brandon Anderson here with Raheem Palmer.

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Speaker 3: Like always, to wrap up Week seventeen Action, our first

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Speaker 3: Sunday of the new year, twenty twenty two, biggest Sunday

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Speaker 3: of the season, fifteen games. Today, we had a whirlwind

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Speaker 3: of early action. Rahiem, how did your twenty twenty two

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Speaker 3: start out?

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, we know you go to talk about

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Speaker 1: how my twenty two twenty two started out as far

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Speaker 1: as NFL was a really, really, really rough day.

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Speaker 2: We'll get into it because we're talking about some.

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Speaker 1: Of the game.

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Speaker 2: But I was not happy with the waitst NFL Sunday

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Speaker 2: turned off.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a very up and down day for me.

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Speaker 3: I had a couple of late ads that saved the

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Speaker 3: day a little bit and got me back close to

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Speaker 3: even but rough games. Get a hold of the big one.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk about Chief Spangals. You and I thought we

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Speaker 3: had cornered early and then the Bengals really came back

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Speaker 3: in surprises Bell. So we'll get to that in a second.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to Monday Night Football, we'll do our hot reads.

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Speaker 3: We'll get all of that for you guys. Odds Today

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Speaker 3: from BETEMGM, as always, the official odds provider of the

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Speaker 3: Action Network podcast. Yeah, let's start out. Let's start with

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Speaker 3: that AFC window early games. We had a bunch of

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Speaker 3: AFC action, the big one, Chief Spangles, Bengals come all

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Speaker 3: the way back. The Chiefs go up fourteen three times.

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Speaker 3: They took a fourteen point lead in the first half.

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Speaker 3: I'm putting on my notes like this in my notes,

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Speaker 3: absolute mismatch. Bengals defense has no shot. Jamar Chase the

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Speaker 3: only thing keeping Cincinnati in the game. We at the halftime,

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Speaker 3: the Bengals are kind of hanging around just enough to

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Speaker 3: stay close. And then the Chiefs scored three points in

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Speaker 3: the second half when they had been unstoppable the first half.

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Speaker 3: Bengals come all the way back. Weird ending that I'm

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Speaker 3: sure we'll talk about field goal at the death. Bengals

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Speaker 3: get the win thirty four to thirty one. They obviously

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Speaker 3: were underdogs. They got the cover plus one sixty five

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Speaker 3: on the money line. Way over. I know you had

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Speaker 3: the over in this one. Where do we start on

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Speaker 3: this one?

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Speaker 2: Okay? I mean, first things for you got to start

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Speaker 2: with the penalties.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs had ten penalties for eighty three yards, and

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Speaker 1: I think the one thing you neglected to mention is

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Speaker 1: that right before the half they had a kickoff return

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Speaker 1: that would have made it thirty five seventeen and that

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Speaker 1: got called back. So not only did they not have

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Speaker 1: the forty one seconds to be able to drive a

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Speaker 1: sport the end of a half, they pretty.

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Speaker 2: Much had thirty seconds left, and the Chiefs chose the

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Speaker 2: round the clock.

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Speaker 1: So you had those penalties, but you also had a

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Speaker 1: lot of penalties on the defensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 1: They basically called passing appearance on every crucial third down,

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Speaker 1: And it just felt like for me. I was on

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Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs and I actually sent out the

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Speaker 1: open order on the Chiefs at minus three and a half.

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Speaker 2: I had some minus five and a half.

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Speaker 1: I just kind of kept betting it like I knew

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Speaker 1: to scored a game, and the first half of the

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Speaker 1: game was exactly what I thought the game would be.

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Speaker 2: But at some point you started to see the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: make some mistakes.

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Speaker 1: They kind of got a bad deal on these penalties,

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Speaker 1: so many passing afferance penalties. But I mean, you got

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Speaker 1: to give the Bengals credit. They won the yard as

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Speaker 1: four seventy five to fourteen. Jamar Chase was just absolutely dominant.

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Speaker 1: Let of receptions, two hundred sixty six yards, three touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: It's just a big day from Jamar Chase. And then

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Speaker 1: obviously the Chiefs were able to put some pressure on

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, but Joe Burrow still got the ball out

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Speaker 1: thirty of thirty nine, four hundred and forty six yards

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Speaker 1: in four touchdowns. So those stars just showed up in.

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Speaker 2: A big way.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely, Burrow and Chase just carried the Bengals here.

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Speaker 3: The defense showed up in the second half, but it

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Speaker 3: didn't I don't really know what the Chiefs did wrong

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Speaker 3: in the second half to not move the ball. It's

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Speaker 3: just the Bengals were on the field so much the

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Speaker 3: game and Jamar Chase just monster performance. Most yards ever

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Speaker 3: by a rookie in a game, two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 3: six yards. I mean that that's a huge that's a

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Speaker 3: good game for quarterback Joe Burrow four hundred and forty

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Speaker 3: nine yards. He's at almost one thousand yards over the

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Speaker 3: last two games now, making a run at the yardage Crown.

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Speaker 3: I thought maybe maybe making a run at the MVP,

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Speaker 3: depending on what happened with Rogers tonight. Obviously that's probably

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Speaker 3: a rap at this point. But yeah, Joe Burrow to me,

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Speaker 3: Burrow and Chase are the store here. Burrow looks like

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Speaker 3: he's making the leap. He's money all game. And you

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Speaker 3: know when you watch a Packers game, you know when

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Speaker 3: the chips are on the table, when everything's on the line,

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Speaker 3: Rogers just gonna throw it over the shoulder and Demon

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Speaker 3: Dam's gonna make to play for the Packers. But we're

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Speaker 3: starting to see that with Burrow and with Chase, that

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Speaker 3: these guys they had their connection to LSU. It has

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Speaker 3: shown up in a big way here Burrow today, zero

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Speaker 3: point sixty one EPA per pass. That is a huge game.

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Speaker 3: Thirty EPA extra points added on the day, way better

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Speaker 3: than Mahomes by the advanced metrics Jamar Chase had fourteen targets,

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Speaker 3: cut eleven of them, huge game, twenty five EPA for him.

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Speaker 3: Between the two of them, that's thirty plus twenty five

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Speaker 3: fifty five EPA per quarterback and receiver. It's hard to

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Speaker 3: get much of a better connection than that. They just

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Speaker 3: lit up the Chiefs. And as great as Kensity's defense

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Speaker 3: had been for the last ten games, I think they're

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Speaker 3: averaging like fourteen and a half points allowed, they just

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Speaker 3: couldn't stop those two.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm gonna be honest with you.

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Speaker 1: I mean, as much as they couldn't stop them, so

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Speaker 1: much of this game was decided by penalties. I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: there was just so many crucial penalties, like on drives

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Speaker 1: where it just felt like it completely swung the game.

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Speaker 1: And Jamar Chase, he had a couple of breakdown touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: Gods just got lost. But I'm pretty sure the Bengal

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Speaker 1: sports twenty one points off passing appearance place And when

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Speaker 1: you look at that second half, the Chiefs only had

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Speaker 1: to pull out three times. They put it on the

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Speaker 1: first drive, the second drive they actually had thirty two

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Speaker 1: from the Cincinnati Bengals forty one, and then they got

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Speaker 1: the offensive Holton penalty.

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Speaker 2: It's third and twelve. They got a punt.

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Speaker 1: Next possession, they stopped the Bengals on they pretty much

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Speaker 1: get a three and out and they called difference of

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Speaker 1: passing appearance and Bengals go down, go down and pretty

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Speaker 1: much take the lead on and it's just like it

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Speaker 1: just felt like the Chiefs just couldn't get.

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Speaker 2: Out of their own way, and then they had some

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Speaker 2: bad luck.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, it was just in a very

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Speaker 1: frustrating game as a Chiefs better but at the same time,

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Speaker 1: there was some sharp money on the Bengals push this

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Speaker 1: line all the way down to three and a half. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe they knew some things that I didn't

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Speaker 1: about this Chiefs defense. But it was pretty surprising to

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Speaker 1: see how well Joe Burrow played in the midst of

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Speaker 1: all the pressure that he took.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, the other penalties you didn't mention too. So

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Speaker 3: back to the ending of the game. So, first of all,

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs are driving down three and we know the Chiefs,

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Speaker 3: We've seen this for three four years now. The Chiefs

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Speaker 3: are going to score the touchdown, get the lead, game over.

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Speaker 3: We got this. The Bengals make the stop, so the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs have to kick the field goal. It's tied, and

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Speaker 3: now the Bengals with the ball back and now they're driving.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs can't get off the field, and it's clear

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Speaker 3: the Bengals are going to score. We're inside the ten.

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Speaker 3: Now it's going to happen. So this is where you

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Speaker 3: let the Bengals score. You let them in. You have

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes, get your guys on the field, go get

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Speaker 3: the tying score. And instead it's just the horrible sequence

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Speaker 3: at the end where Burrow keeps sneaking and it's like, okay,

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Speaker 3: they're inside the one, they're sneaking. Are they even trying

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Speaker 3: to score? The Chiefs are calling their timeouts and using

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Speaker 3: up all their time, all the timeouts, and then two

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Speaker 3: times the Bengals go for it on fourth and goal

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Speaker 3: inside the one, and it's a tie game. Remember they're

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Speaker 3: going forward because they want to get the knockout punch,

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Speaker 3: and twice they get stopped, and twice it gets overturned

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Speaker 3: by a penalty. First time, offsetting penalties, they get to

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Speaker 3: try it again. Second time we get another one of

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Speaker 3: those holes in the end zone, and then at that

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Speaker 3: point they just kneel the ball down. Joe Burrow goes

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Speaker 3: out with a knee injury, which doesn't look serious but

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Speaker 3: is something to keep an eye on. So Brandon Allen

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Speaker 3: comes in and takes the you know, kneels it down.

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Speaker 3: They kick it off or kick the field goal for

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Speaker 3: the win. Just insane sequence of events, just to not

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Speaker 3: let the Chiefs even have the ball back at the end,

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Speaker 3: Like the odds of that come to fruition that way.

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Speaker 3: Either you give up the touchdown right away on the

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Speaker 3: other side of the two minute warning, and Pat's got

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Speaker 3: two minutes all the time out. I think you got

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Speaker 3: every chance.

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Speaker 1: Even with them not giving up the touchdown the end

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Speaker 1: before the two minute warning. They should have called the

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Speaker 1: time out before the two minute warning. They called it

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Speaker 1: after us. So it's just like there was just look,

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Speaker 1: Andy Reid is not he came back to play. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's not known for his clock management, but it's just

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Speaker 1: I mean, he picked he had the absolute worst clock

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Speaker 1: management to possibly have. And you know, it's hard for

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Speaker 1: some of these football guys to just give up a score.

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Speaker 2: That's just who they are. I mean, you look at

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Speaker 2: Belichick in the Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks. He

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Speaker 2: wasn't going to give up a score and he actually

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Speaker 2: and I think the funny thing about that Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: is that it.

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Speaker 1: Felt like he didn't call his timeouts to rush the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks into like a bad play, and it just happened

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Speaker 1: to work out for him. But it's just like I

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Speaker 1: just think, sometimes you just got to know letting the

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Speaker 1: team score is gonna give us the best chance to win,

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Speaker 1: and none of these coaches see you want.

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Speaker 2: To do that.

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Speaker 3: I mean, from my point of view, the Chiefs defender

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Speaker 3: should have been bear hugging Joe Burrow and falling back

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Speaker 3: into the end zone with them, like you gotta get

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Speaker 3: one of those weird players where both teams are trying

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Speaker 3: to do the opposite thing of what it looks like.

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Speaker 1: On that very drive in which they scored the game

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Speaker 1: winning field goal, the Chiefs had the third and twenty

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Speaker 1: seven after a sec and for whatever reason, they decide

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Speaker 1: to go without all out blitz. Why I don't know,

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Speaker 1: instead of look, you got a couple of minutes left

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Speaker 1: in the game, there's no reason to go with all

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Speaker 1: out blitz there.

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Speaker 2: You let them go what underneath kick the field goal?

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Speaker 2: You got Patrick Mahomes and you haven't.

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Speaker 1: Been stopped pretty much all day, other than those two

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Speaker 1: drives in the second quarter, one in which you I

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Speaker 1: mean in the second half, one in which you got

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Speaker 1: a penalty, so let them kick the field goal, you

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Speaker 1: go down score touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: I just to me, that whole last drive was just

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Speaker 2: bad Chiefs coaching.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't argue with that. That's classic Steeve Spagnelo,

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Speaker 3: like he's always gonna be a in that spot. And

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Speaker 3: I guess you know you're trying to blitz, You're trying

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Speaker 3: to keep them. I think they're out of field goal

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Speaker 3: range at that point.

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Speaker 1: So, yeah, twenty seven and Jamar Chase catches. You allowed

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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, who's been beating.

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Speaker 3: You all day, to go one on one, Yeah, one

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Speaker 3: on one coverage and just drop it in there, which

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Speaker 3: Burr has been doing all game long. So big mistake.

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Speaker 3: They really mangled that one, and now the Chiefs fall

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Speaker 3: out of the one seed. Tennessee Titans, somehow, who we've

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Speaker 3: dumped on the entire season, are the one seed right now,

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Speaker 3: because remember the Titans beat the Chiefs. That was Ken

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Speaker 3: City's last lost before today. So here are the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: sitting tied with the Titans, and they lose that tie break.

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Speaker 3: So Tennessee wins, they're the one seed. If the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: lose again, they're tied with the Bengals, and the Bengals

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Speaker 3: are the tiebreak now, so it looks like the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: cost themselves a bye week. And by the way, the

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Speaker 3: AFC has some pretty good wildcard teams. Costing themselves a

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Speaker 3: bye week suddenly means a game against maybe the Colts,

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Speaker 3: maybe the Chargers. That's not a freebie, that's not a

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Speaker 3: sure thing win. A bye is a sure thing win.

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Speaker 3: That's the whole point of the bye week. So this

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Speaker 3: is a very weird spot. I did not expect this result.

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Speaker 3: I didn't expect the Chiefs to get the win. The Titans,

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Speaker 3: they might be. I was trying to think of can

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Speaker 3: you think of a worse one seed in memory, assuming

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Speaker 3: that they get the win next week. I couldn't come

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Speaker 3: up with one off the top of.

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Speaker 2: The dome, the worst run one seed. I'm have to

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Speaker 2: come back to that.

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Speaker 3: I mean, assuming that the wildcard spots go to New England,

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Speaker 3: Indianapolis and the Chargers. That's my assumption right now. I

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Speaker 3: legitimately think the Titans as the one seed, are the

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Speaker 3: worst playoff team in the AFC.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna go that quarter.

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Speaker 1: And one of the reasons why is because you have

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Speaker 1: to think that they're gonna get Derek hen reback. AJ

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Speaker 1: Brown has been really tough to stop, and the defense

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Speaker 1: has actually improved as this year has gone along. So

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Speaker 1: I don't want to say that they're the worst team

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, like I mean, to me, they're better

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Speaker 1: than the Patriots, I think.

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Speaker 2: I think they're better than I think they're better than

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Speaker 2: the cold I think they're better than the Chargers at

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Speaker 2: this point. I mean, we're Chargers order Raiders. I mean

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Speaker 2: because obviously those two teams are playing for a playoff position.

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Speaker 3: So so let me ask you this. Then we know

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Speaker 3: we talk with this all the time. The best way

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Speaker 3: to get to the super Bowl is to be the

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Speaker 3: one seed. All the Titans have to do is beat

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Speaker 3: the Texans, and they're the one seed right now. Tennessee

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Speaker 3: is not the favorite or close to it. They're plus

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Speaker 3: five hundred to get to the super Bowl, and when

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Speaker 3: the AFC plus twelve hundred to win the super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: they're two games away if they win next week. Are

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Speaker 3: you nibbling at those odds at all?

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Speaker 2: I am not nibbling at those odds. I'm just I'm

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Speaker 2: not but I just I don't think they're doing the

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Speaker 2: worst team in AFC. Just that's fair enough.

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Speaker 3: There's a wide chasm in between taking them to get

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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl and being the worst team there. So

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Speaker 3: we will talk all things, playoffs to come. Let's go Rams, Ravens.

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Speaker 3: So I mentioned I had a late say. This was

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Speaker 3: my late say. Could have been much better. But I

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Speaker 3: passed on this game early in the week and the

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Speaker 3: line just kept moving, cap't moving toward the Rams. I

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Speaker 3: didn't understand because Matt Stafford is terrible in games against

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Speaker 3: teams over five hundred. We know this, We've known this

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Speaker 3: for a decade now.

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Speaker 2: And there we go.

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Speaker 3: Game starts right away, Matt Stafford picked six, A couple

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Speaker 3: drives later, another interception. It's all the bad Matt Stafford.

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Speaker 3: Baltimore has the game, they're running the ball, they're running

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Speaker 3: the clock out. And this same old Baltimore fourth time

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Speaker 3: in five weeks that they lose a game by one

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Speaker 3: or two points. Heartbreak. John Harbaughs guys are fighting hard,

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Speaker 3: but they don't have a quarterback, they don't have a secondary,

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Speaker 3: they don't quite enough. Rams win twenty to nineteen, Stafford

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Speaker 3: did get the late comeback. Stafford is the king of

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Speaker 3: the fourth quarter comebacks, but you know that's because he's

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Speaker 3: behind all the time that the two go together. Twenty

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Speaker 3: and nineteen, Ravens do cover. So I got that one

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Speaker 3: iliad to miss on my plus two to forty money line.

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Speaker 3: I'm very worried about the rams from this game. I

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Speaker 3: am ready to bat against Matthew Stafford. That's right, full name,

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Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford the playoff.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, you can't trust Matthew Stafford at

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Speaker 1: all when you look at this is the second consecutive

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Speaker 1: game where they had to overcome three turnovers from Matthew Stafford.

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Speaker 1: And he throws the pick six to pretty much start

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Speaker 1: the game. He throws another interception in Ravens territory, He

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Speaker 1: fumbles the ball in Raven's territory when they pretty much

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Speaker 1: could have taken the league to start to start the

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Speaker 1: second half. I mean, look, Cooper Cup is amazing. We

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Speaker 1: know that Odell Beckham has shown that he's not washed,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of it had to do with Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 1: The defense has been solid, but at some point you

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Speaker 1: can't overcome these turnovers against solid playoff teams and seven

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Speaker 1: turnovers the last three games. You're just not going to

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Speaker 1: overcome that. And I just to me, and I got

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Speaker 1: a lot of pushback about this. I brought this to

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Speaker 1: my group chat, and I also brought this Twitter. And

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Speaker 1: I'm of the belief that the Rams were actually better

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Speaker 1: under Jared Goff than they are under Matthew Stafford.

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Speaker 2: Hear me out. I know this is probably a crazy take.

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Speaker 1: We know Matthew Stafford is the better quarterback, but from

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Speaker 1: when I'm watching these games, it feels like Sean McVay

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Speaker 1: was aware of the limitations of Jared Goff and he

339
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Speaker 1: never really took the training wheels off, whereas with Matthew

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Speaker 1: Stafford because he's presumed to be a better quarterback, which

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Speaker 1: he is, there's no training wills on this guy, so

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Speaker 1: he's allowed to be as reckless as possible.

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Speaker 2: And you could look at some of these Rams games.

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Speaker 1: I know they pulled off the win this week, but

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Speaker 1: you look at last week or the game against the

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Speaker 1: forty nine.

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Speaker 2: Ers, He's almost single handedly almost losing these games for

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Speaker 2: this team.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know if Jared Goff was ever really

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Speaker 1: put in the position or his time with the Rams

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Speaker 1: to just go out there and lose these games for them,

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Speaker 1: And you said it yourself, you're betting against Matthew staff.

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Speaker 3: Here's my response to that. So I would say that

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Speaker 3: the floor is lower with Matthew Stafford because it can

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Speaker 3: really fall out because they let it. The floor wasn't

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Speaker 3: as low with Goff because they didn't allow it. They

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Speaker 3: did so much built in to protect him. But the

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Speaker 3: big difference and why they made the deal is because

359
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Speaker 3: the ceiling is unquestionably higher. And like, I'm not saying

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Speaker 3: these are the same caliber quarterbacks, but Matt Stafford for

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Speaker 3: four games could have that Nick Foles run in him

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Speaker 3: where he just is running hot, like we know when

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Speaker 3: he when he's good, he's really good. When the the

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Speaker 3: arm talent is there, the deep ball is there, they

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Speaker 3: got the talent. The Rams are all about this big

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Speaker 3: play or big Stars and Scrubs thing I thought was

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Speaker 3: really interesting. So the games on the line, the Rams

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Speaker 3: have the ball down late and they're drive and I

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Speaker 3: thought at the end of the game that final minute

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Speaker 3: or two is all Rams, Stars and Scrubs. You get

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Speaker 3: Cooper Cup gets the long catch. I'm counting him as

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Speaker 3: one of the Stars. And now he certainly is. Then

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Speaker 3: fourth down, games on the line, Stafford throws Dodell Backham,

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Speaker 3: great catch. A couple of plays later, Stafford throws to

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Speaker 3: Obj again for the touchdown. Ravens get the ball back

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Speaker 3: and it's third down. What's the big play? Von Miller,

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Speaker 3: the guy that they traded for, comes through, gets the sack.

378
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Speaker 3: The clock is running, it's the last play. The Ravens

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Speaker 3: throw it again. Aaron Donald from defensive tackle comes back

380
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Speaker 3: to get the big hit and the tackle to end

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Speaker 3: the game. So that's it. That's Stafford, cop Beckham, Von Miller,

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Speaker 3: Aaron Donald, everyone but Jalen Ramsey Like, that's it. That's

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Speaker 3: the whole Rams. You can't even name five more Rams.

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Speaker 3: That's the entire roster. That's the team. And if you're

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Speaker 3: the Rams, you look at that and you're like, that's it.

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Speaker 3: That's the roster we built. That's our super Bowl roster.

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Speaker 3: But I'm gonna follow that up saying lest it doesn't

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Speaker 3: get any better than that for the Rams. And I

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Speaker 3: think right now there's a better chance that the Rams

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Speaker 3: do not win again this season than that they get

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Speaker 3: to the super Bowl. Wow.

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Speaker 2: So that's it.

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Speaker 3: I think they got their win. I think they could

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Speaker 3: lose the Niners next week. The Niners are good team.

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Speaker 3: The Niners are fighting for the playoffs and need a win.

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Speaker 3: And I'm not sure that the Rams are that dangerous

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Speaker 3: in the playoffs. They could be. They're live. Matt Stafford

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Speaker 3: makes them more live than Jared Goffwood. They could get there.

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Speaker 3: But Stafford, I think has four pick six is on

400
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Speaker 3: the season. You just he's that guy that you're gonna

401
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Speaker 3: whoever bets on Matt Stafford, you're gonna be watching that

402
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Speaker 3: playoff game and when not if, when that backbreaking interception comes,

403
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Speaker 3: you're gonna be like, why did I put my money

404
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Speaker 3: on this? We all knew this was coming.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I've been saying it for years.

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Speaker 1: To me, he's our generation's version of jeffre He is

407
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Speaker 1: a rocket arm, but he just lacks that intangible to

408
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Speaker 1: really be able to put it together. And I mean

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Speaker 1: it's pretty clear if Lamar Jackson's out there today, the

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Speaker 1: Ravens probably win that game. And like he single handedly

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Speaker 1: kind of kept the Ravens in this game with his tunnel,

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Speaker 1: and it's just.

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Speaker 2: Very it's gonna be very frustrating. They're not a team.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking back to be honest.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Rams now got the big winning against the

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Speaker 3: Vikings last week, they got the Ravens win today. They

417
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Speaker 3: should have lost both those games. Stafford was terrible in

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Speaker 3: both of those games and tried badly to give the

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Speaker 3: game away. So I'm very out on the Rams. I'm

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Speaker 3: ready to fade them in the playoffs. One more AFC

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Speaker 3: big game in the early window Raiders, Colts not as

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Speaker 3: exciting of a game. Raiders take the early ten to

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Speaker 3: nothing lead. Folts fight all the way back. Carson Wentz

424
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 3: throws up a hill mary that the two defenders run

425
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Speaker 3: into each other and tip it to t Y Hilton

426
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Speaker 3: for the touchdown basically, and then Weird to finish, so

427
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Speaker 3: it's a tie game. Twenty twenty. The Raiders have allowed

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Speaker 3: them to come back. Raiders are driving and basically Derek

429
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 3: Carr throws it deep the Hunter Renfro, who scores a touchdown.

430
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Speaker 3: But then they rule, oh wait, now he tripped, he fell,

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Speaker 3: and they reviewed it like seven thousand times and decided

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Speaker 3: that he touched his achilles with his pinky or something,

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Speaker 3: and so Renfro is down. But ironically that hurts the

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Speaker 3: Colts because if he gets the touchdown and he gets

435
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 3: the ball back down seven or the chance to win.

436
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 3: Instead he's down. They run it a couple of times,

437
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,239
Speaker 3: Colts use the field goals, Raiders will walk it off

438
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 3: with the field goal and get to win forty or

439
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: twenty three to twenty. Raiders closed as eight and a

440
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 3: half point underdogs plus two eighty on the money line.

441
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 3: I know you're mad about this one because you love

442
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 3: the Raiders early and then all this COVID mess scared

443
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 3: you off, right.

444
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean, like we actually gave this out

445
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 1: last week on the hot read. You could see the

446
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 1: way that Carson Wentz has been playing recently. This is

447
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 1: a quarterback's lead. On the last game, we spoke about

448
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 1: how we don't believe in Matthew Stafford. Right now, I

449
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 1: don't believe in Carson Wents. Look, I mean he struggled

450
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 1: against the Patriots. He just hasn't been the quarterback that

451
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 1: they need him to be. Obviously, today he's sixteen to

452
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:17,199
Speaker 1: twenty seven, one hundred and forty eight yards, one touchdown,

453
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 1: and he had a negative EPA per play zero point

454
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 1: zero eight success rate. When you look at the success rate,

455
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 1: the numbers, passing success rate, it's just that's not good enough.

456
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: And I felt like that would be the case coming

457
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 1: into this game. The Raiders have been like this real

458
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: scrappy team over the last couple of weeks, and I

459
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 1: felt like they could keep it close. But this number

460
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 1: took a really wild ride. Look, I mean, we're opening

461
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 1: up at nine. The COVID news hits. Carson's supposed to

462
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 1: be out the alls. The line is supposed to be out,

463
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 1: This line drops allway.

464
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 3: Garris Leonard, Darris Leonard was supposed to be out still.

465
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 3: Quenton Nelson was supposed to be out still. What did

466
00:22:58,240 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 3: we get down to three at one point? Yeah?

467
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 1: I think we were down to like two and a

468
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 1: half at one point, and then I think you actually

469
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 1: had some sharper guys trying to buy back on it.

470
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 1: I actually sat tight, and then the number comes back

471
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: up to six. Then it looks like pretty much the

472
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: CDC changed the guidelines from ten days to five days.

473
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 2: The NFL follows suit.

474
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: So it's just like you have all these different variables

475
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: changing things, and then the line goes back up, and

476
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: it's just by that point I've already submitted my contest picks.

477
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 1: It's just it just was a wild mess. But I

478
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 1: like the Raiders this whole week, and I feel like

479
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 1: I got the result that I was expecting. I felt

480
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: like this was a pick them game.

481
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 3: Up, Yeah, this is the result before the mess of

482
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 3: the whole week. I'm with you. This was your pick,

483
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 3: but I was with you all the way. Eight or

484
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 3: nine points was just too much. The Cults are good team.

485
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 3: The Cults are a better team than the Raiders and

486
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 3: should have win a game like us, But they shouldn't

487
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 3: have been a favorite about eight or nine. It was

488
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 3: the wrong line all the way and there was a

489
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 3: lot of value there along the way, but we didn't

490
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 3: really know. So what I'll say is this, you know,

491
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 3: we know I'm the Carson Wentz guy, so I won't

492
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:10,119
Speaker 3: make too many proclamations about him. However, I'm not going

493
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 3: to read too much into this loss for the Colts.

494
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 3: It's a bad one. They needed to get the win.

495
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 3: Now they have to go win in Jacksonville next week.

496
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: If you can't win in Jacksonville, who literally should be

497
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 3: trying to lose to clinch the number one pick. If

498
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 3: you can't win in that, you're not a playoff team.

499
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 3: So it's fine, go win in Jacksonville. Get your playoff spot.

500
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 3: But here's what I'm gonna say. This game to me

501
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 3: for Indianapolis was a carbon copy of the Week one game.

502
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 3: This is what happens when you let the pandemic do

503
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 3: yourail your season? What team in the NFL has the

504
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 3: lowest vaccination rate and was always due for COVID outbreak?

505
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 3: It was the Colts and coming into Week one of

506
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 3: the season, Wentz hadn't practiced. Went Nelson had in practice,

507
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 3: and they looked like garbage because they didn't practice all

508
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 3: week and they weren't ready for the preseason to play,

509
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 3: and they looked terrible. Is their worst game of the season.

510
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 3: I think since then they look very good and any

511
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 3: given a week, the Colts, if they get in the playoffs,

512
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 3: they're dangerous. I'm not saying that they're a lived to

513
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl, but they could win any matchup

514
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 3: any given a week. I think I would feel better

515
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 3: about the Colts winning on the row in the playoffs,

516
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 3: and I feel better about the Rams right now. This one, though,

517
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 3: this was not that This doesn't scare me off of that.

518
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 3: This just makes me think that this is a team

519
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 3: that let COVID derail their season because they gave away

520
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 3: two games now that they completely give away because they

521
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: just you didn't practice all week. You got to get

522
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 3: ready for the game. And they got guys like quarantining

523
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 3: all week long, and you know they got them back,

524
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 3: but it wasn't enough that this looked like a team

525
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 3: and Carson Wentzday look like a guy who's just out

526
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 3: of sink and hen practice.

527
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:50,959
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean I agree with that. I mean,

528
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: we look at look at the last thirteen games. They've

529
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 1: won nine at their last thirteen games. They started the

530
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 1: season oh to three, and you look at the games

531
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 1: that they loss. They probably should have beat the Ravens,

532
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: that's a game that they should have won. You look

533
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: at the game against the Titans, that's a game that

534
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 1: they should have won. I mean, I mean the second

535
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: game against the Titans at home, they should have won

536
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: that game. The game against the Buccaneers, that's another game

537
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:14,679
Speaker 1: that they should have won. And then you look at

538
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 1: this game. Obviously they didn't practice. So to me, this

539
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 1: is a team, like you said, that can beat anybody

540
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 1: on any given Sunday, but they've just had some bad

541
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: luck as far as finishing finishing games.

542
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 2: And then they've had some bad luck with the pandemic.

543
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,439
Speaker 2: So I think if this gets this team gets.

544
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 1: Into the playoffs, this is a team that you might

545
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 1: want to take a firearm in terms of making the

546
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 1: super Bowl because I think they're scary.

547
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, So we don't want to read too

548
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 3: much into this one. The other thing, too, is this

549
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 3: actually could end up sort of helping the Colts. They

550
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 3: probably fall from the five seed to likely the sixth

551
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 3: seed at this point, assuming that things go as expected

552
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 3: next week, and that probably means instead of going to Buffalo,

553
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 3: who looks like the four seed of results go as expected,

554
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 3: you play Cincinnati. And I don't know about you, but

555
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 3: I was good Cincinnati. Look today, I would way rather

556
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 3: play Cincinnati in a playoff game than play Buffalo. Who's

557
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 3: been there, who has that great defense. The Colts beat

558
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 3: up on Buffalo earlier this year. Colts are not going

559
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 3: to be afraid of either one of those matchups at

560
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 3: this point. This guy to stay out of the seventh seed.

561
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 3: You don't want any part of the Chiefs. If losing

562
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 3: today knocked you into a matchup where you got to

563
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 3: play the Chiefs now instead, then today cost you your season.

564
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 3: Probably Hopefully it's not that and instead today's loss to

565
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 3: me might have bought me a little extra value on

566
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 3: the Colts that might not have been there before today,

567
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 3: because today was not about anything bad about the Colts.

568
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 3: Today was about a weird wonky week and just the

569
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 3: line being off.

570
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, without a doubt.

571
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about your team. In the afternoon

572
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 3: game the Dallas Cowboys, it was a kind of a

573
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 3: boring afternoon of not a lot of other good games.

574
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 3: This one was close, but not close. The Cardinals ended

575
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 3: up six and a half point underdogs and kind of

576
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 3: just took charge more mostly from the beginning. Cowboys offense

577
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 3: couldn't get anything going early on. Cardinals get to win

578
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 3: twenty five, twenty two, stays under on this one. Kyler

579
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 3: Murray nine to zero now at at and T Stadium.

580
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: Five games in high school, two in college, now two

581
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 3: in the pros, and I have to say I'm worried

582
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 3: about the Cowboys offense.

583
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 2: You Know.

584
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 1: The funny thing is everybody spoke about Cliff Kingsburgy's record

585
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 1: and the start of the season and his struggles at

586
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 1: the end of the season. But I think one of

587
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 1: the things that I probably didn't account for is that

588
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy was on the other end of the field,

589
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: and look this Cowboys offense, outside of their games against Washington,

590
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: they really just.

591
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 2: Have not played well at all.

592
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 1: You got Dak Prescott twenty four thirty eight two and

593
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: twenty six yards, three touchdowns, and you know a lot

594
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 1: of that came at the end, but you got to fumble.

595
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: The Cardinals they really have struggled to stop to run,

596
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: but they shut down this Cowboys rushing offense. They had

597
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 1: forty five rushing yards on two point six yards per

598
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: ten Like that's just not that's not going to get

599
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: it done against It's like, you got to be able

600
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: to run the ball.

601
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 2: That's what the Cowboys do. Ezekiel Elliott had nine carries

602
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 2: sixteen yards. Tony Potter had three carries nine yards. So

603
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 2: I think that was the most surprising thing. You know,

604
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 2: there was a lot of sharp money on the Arizona

605
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: Cardinals because this look aheadline was Cowboys minus two and

606
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 2: a half. This got all the way up to six

607
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 2: and a half. But I was looking at this Cardinals

608
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 2: team thinking that they were completely cooked, and it just

609
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 2: turns out that they had a little slump.

610
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, this I'm a little bit frustrated that I didn't

611
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 3: play more. I just this was just a gut feeling game.

612
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 3: We talked about this one on our Friday preview. This

613
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 3: just felt like a by low Sell high spot, and

614
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: I feel like that's just kind of what we saw.

615
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 3: I don't really know that it took too much away

616
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 3: from this game. I was not high on the Cardinals

617
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 3: coming in. I don't feel like I'm that much higher

618
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 3: on the Cardinals coming out of it. Like I don't

619
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 3: feel like, oh good, the Cardinals are back. They got

620
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 3: the big road win. The Cardinals I think, are six

621
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 3: and er on the road this season as underdogs outright,

622
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 3: so we know the can go went on the road

623
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 3: they might have to do in the playoffs, so they'll

624
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 3: be dangerous, but not like super dangerous. Like I didn't

625
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 3: see anything about the Cardinals today that really made me

626
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 3: stop and catch my attention that much. Cardinals were good.

627
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 3: They had three hundred ninety nine yards to three hundred

628
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 3: one yards. Again, as always, they were ridiculously efficient on

629
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,479
Speaker 3: late downs on both sides of the ball. They continue

630
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 3: to do that all season. We continue to think it's

631
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 3: not gonna be able to keep up, and it does somehow,

632
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 3: but Dak not good enough. Three touchdowns, you think that

633
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 3: that's a good game, but five point nine yards per attempt,

634
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 3: not getting down the field, three catches for Cooper, three

635
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 3: catches for Lamb Gallop. I think Torri's acl now, so

636
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 3: he's done. Dak fumbled three times, so he lost. The

637
00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 3: one incredible play by the way by Isaiah Simmons coming

638
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 3: all the way around and getting back and punching the

639
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 3: ball out. That was kind of the turning play. I

640
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 3: actually thought Dallas might still come back and get the win.

641
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 3: You know, they did. They entered twenty two to seven

642
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter, came all the way back and had

643
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 3: a chance. But then the defense that's been so good

644
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 3: can't get off the field four forty two. You get

645
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 3: the ball back and you never get the ball back again.

646
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, you talked about Mike McCarthy. He did. He

647
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 3: had that blown time out early in the second half,

648
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 3: and then I thought Chase Edmonds might have fumbled that

649
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 3: ball toward the end, right before the two minute warning,

650
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 3: and they have a timeout left so they can't challenge it,

651
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 3: and they're unable to challenge the animal to stop the clock.

652
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 3: So it felt like another one where McCarthy mismanaged a

653
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 3: little bit, but I was a little I thought the

654
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 3: Cowboys were a bit overvalued on the line because I

655
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 3: thought the offense wasn't good enough. That's what I saw

656
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 3: in this game. I don't think less of the Cowboys

657
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 3: after the game, but I already was worried about them

658
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 3: going in and this is kind of what I was

659
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 3: worried about. You know.

660
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: The one thing I will say is that I was

661
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 1: a little impressed with Arizona in the sense that, look,

662
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 1: the Cowboys have a dominant pass rush, but Kyler can

663
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 1: neutralize a really great pass rush, and I think we

664
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 1: saw that in this game. That was the difference for me,

665
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 1: because anytime you had Grandy Gregory or you had Mika

666
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: Parsons getting to getting to Kyler Murray, he's scrambling and

667
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: he's getting out and he's extending drives.

668
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 2: And I think that's what won them this game. But

669
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: I mean the defense played well.

670
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: Look, I mean they held the Cowboys rushing attack to nothing,

671
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: and I think that's big. If the Cowboys can't run

672
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: the ball, then that's going to hurt the rest of

673
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 1: their offense. But yeah, I mean, look, I thought the

674
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: Cowboys offense had turned it around, but it just turns

675
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: out that they just had the Washington football team's number,

676
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: and Washington was just completely depleted with.

677
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 2: All these covid adfences.

678
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: So the Cowboys going forward, it's just if they can't

679
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: get this offense going, then I mean, I think they're

680
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 1: probably a first or second round exit, even with the

681
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: defense plan as well as they've been playing.

682
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 3: The run game, for sure is my biggest worry for

683
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 3: this game. And it's not new, that's not a new thing,

684
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 3: but this game of particular. The Cardinals had been awful

685
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 3: defending the run since JJ Watt went out. So if

686
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 3: you're ever going to run the ball, this is the

687
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 3: game to run the ball, you have to be able

688
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 3: to run the ball. I think the Cardinals were twenty

689
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 3: ninth against the run and EPA per player the last

690
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 3: six weeks, and so if the Cowboys still can't run

691
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 3: the ball even in that spot, that's a real worry

692
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 3: to me. I will say this though, like with the Colts,

693
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 3: number one, a loss year might allow some value the Cowboys.

694
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 3: We know the ceiling is there. But the other thing

695
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 3: that I do like for this for Dallas is looking

696
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 3: at the different scenarios. If I'm Dallas, I'm taking next

697
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 3: week as a bye week. I think Dallas is basically

698
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 3: locked into the four seed. In order for them to

699
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 3: move above the four at this point, they need to

700
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 3: win against Philly in Philly, who's also locked into the

701
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 3: playoffs but fighting for position. But they also need a

702
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 3: Tample loss or a Rams loss. I think maybe a

703
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:13,240
Speaker 3: Cardinals loss. There are a few scenarios, but in all likelihood,

704
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 3: the Cowboys are probably the four seed, and I'm not

705
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 3: really sure it matters that much to bump up to

706
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 3: the three. I'm not sure that really changes things too

707
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 3: much for them. I think they should take the week off,

708
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 3: get Dak healthy, he seems like he still could use

709
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 3: a little more time, and just kind of get right,

710
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 3: take a mental break on a long season. I think

711
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 3: that could end up being a blessing disguise, with them

712
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 3: not really having to fight for the one seed next

713
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 3: week like we thought they might need to, and kind

714
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 3: of get a little by a week might get this

715
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 3: matchup again. That's what it looks like right now is

716
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 3: Cowboys Cardinals. I can't say that I would feel terrible

717
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 3: about it if I'm a Cowboys fan, like there's nothing

718
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 3: about this matchup that makes me think we can't beat

719
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: this team. It just wasn't off day. I take the

720
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 3: off week and try again.

721
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,720
Speaker 1: I'm really a big fan of taking golf week seventeen,

722
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: week eighteen. I think I think it's beneficial for some

723
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: of these teams to go out there and build up

724
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: a ladder and you know, play a couple of series

725
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 1: because so much of football is rhythm, so much of

726
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 1: it is just actually being prepared and playing week in

727
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: and week out. And we know Deak hasn't looked good

728
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: since he came back from his injury. So I still

729
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: think that there are some reps that they need to

730
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: get in, especially when you lose Michael Gollap. You know,

731
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 1: the backup came in and actually scored a touchdown. So

732
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: I want to see the Cowboys at least go out

733
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 1: there and play a couple of series at minimum. And

734
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 1: I'm saying that as a fan, but I'm saying that,

735
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 1: you know, for all teams who are in this position

736
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 1: to where they're not really playing for anything, because we've

737
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 1: seen guys come out, We've seen teams come out there,

738
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: take that week off, and then the next week they

739
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: look like they haven't played football in a month, so.

740
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fair. Well, one of those teams that might

741
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,839
Speaker 3: also think about taking next week off looked like they

742
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 3: pretty much took this week off too. That is the

743
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And we are going all things Bucks

744
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 3: today or our first twenty twenty two stink of the week.

745
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 3: Smell it, smell it, smell it.

746
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,240
Speaker 2: It's the smell. It's quite fungent.

747
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:09,439
Speaker 4: Dude, plug your nose.

748
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 2: It's stinks.

749
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 4: This is your stink of the week.

750
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 3: We got a few different Buck stinks. First of all,

751
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 3: the Bucks almost lost the Jets. That alone should be

752
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 3: the stink of the week twenty eight to twenty four.

753
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 3: Of course, the legend Tom Brady drives them down the

754
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 3: field felt like what was it Jets Raiders from a

755
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 3: year ago, where the Jets defense just folded and gave

756
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 3: away a win at the end. So the Bucks get

757
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: the win. The Jets cover the fourteen and a half,

758
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 3: but you gotta hate that one if you had the

759
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:45,359
Speaker 3: plus five point fifty money line. Ugly for the Bucks

760
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 3: to even let this be a game. The Jets are

761
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 3: missing like half of their roster hurt, but that's not

762
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 3: even where the stink of the week stopped, So what

763
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 3: else we got for a stink of the week on

764
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 3: this one?

765
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: Look, we have Antonio Brown pretty much leaving in the

766
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 1: middle of the game. We all know there's some mental

767
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: health issues there. We hope he gets the healthy needs.

768
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 2: But not only did he leave in the middle.

769
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: Of the game, he actually went out and I mean

770
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: he cut him immediately, so he had to find his

771
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 1: way back home.

772
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 2: And he puts out a wrap sing.

773
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 3: So it's just I didn't see that.

774
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, he put out a wrap single. It's called the Pit,

775
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 2: not the Palace.

776
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 3: Have yourself a day. He takes his jersey off, he

777
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 3: throws in the stands waves goodbye. He's out of there.

778
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 3: That's a mess. Here's the other stink of the week

779
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:39,280
Speaker 3: from a batting perspective. So the Bucks are down twenty

780
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 3: four to twenty. They're driving for the touchdown. If you

781
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 3: play the total on this one, if you got the under,

782
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 3: you're feeling fine. It's twenty four to twenty. That's forty

783
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 3: four points, and you're feeling okay about it. And suddenly

784
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 3: the Bucks come down score a touchdown, and it's twenty

785
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 3: six to twenty four at this point, and they they

786
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 3: go for the two pointer for no reason. Why are

787
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 3: you going for two? You're up by two, Just kneel

788
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 3: the ball and end the game. And so that's another stink.

789
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 3: Just everything's stunk about this game, the worst stink about

790
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 3: it for me personally. Tom Brady four and ten yards,

791
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 3: three touchdowns, late drive, give me hope, my hopes up

792
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 3: for one more last breath shot and maybe an MVP

793
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 3: ticket MVP drive against the Jets. Yeah, I don't think so.

794
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers, I think sealed that one up tonight against

795
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 3: my Vikings. But yeah, rough game all around for the Bucks.

796
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 3: Let's let's hit the rest of Sunday's action and wrap

797
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 3: up week seventeen. So I mentioned that Sunday night game

798
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 3: is a snoozer. Kirk Cousins watch from home like Raheem

799
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 3: and me. Sean Mannion got his first career touchdown for

800
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 3: the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers got number four forty six and

801
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,479
Speaker 3: four forty seven, and the Packers clinched the one seed

802
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,439
Speaker 3: and knock the Vikings out of the playoffs thirty seven

803
00:38:56,480 --> 00:39:01,439
Speaker 3: to ten. Easy win. Easy over there. Dolphins seven game

804
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 3: win streak ends with a thud. Titans dominated physically, they

805
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 3: ran hard all game. They won big, thirty four to three, windy, rainy,

806
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 3: playoffy feeling game. Tennessee pulled the way late. It was

807
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 3: a little close than a look before that. By this

808
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 3: one stayed under. Thinks of the Dolphins Titans in position

809
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 3: for that one seed. As we mentioned in Buffalo, we

810
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,360
Speaker 3: get a wild push. The Bills beat the Falcons twenty

811
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 3: nine to fifteen, and boy, depending on which side of

812
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 3: this one you're on, you had a rough beat here.

813
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 3: Matt Ryan scrambles for a touchdown late that would hit

814
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 3: the over, would hit the cover for Atlanta, and Matt

815
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 3: Ryan gets up and spikes the ball in the defender's

816
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 3: face and gets a taunting penalty, and then on top

817
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 3: of it, they rule that he slid and didn't get

818
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 3: into the end zone, so there's no touchdown. The tomy

819
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 3: pennty brings them back to the sixteen. They don't get

820
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 3: any points on a fourth down. The game stays twenty

821
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 3: nine to fifteen. That's a push for buff and it

822
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:05,280
Speaker 3: stays under. So Matt Ryan's taunting cost you a Falcons

823
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 3: cover and an over. If you're on that one, my

824
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:11,959
Speaker 3: apology is there. Mister Hurtz goes to Washington and gets

825
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 3: the win twenty to sixteen. Eagles defense big game for them.

826
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 3: They held on to a one scory lead twice inside

827
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 3: their own territory. Great interception by Rodney McLeod there to

828
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 3: clinch that one, and Eagles did clinch a playoff spot today,

829
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 3: but Washington got the cover there. Chargers kept their playoff

830
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 3: hopes alive and knocked the Broncos out thirty four to thirteen.

831
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 3: Easy win and cover tough one if you bet the under.

832
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:39,760
Speaker 3: We know Denver Unders have been killing it this season.

833
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 3: Twenty four points in the fourth quarter to get the over,

834
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 3: only the fourth over the year for the Broncos. Trey

835
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 3: Lance won the battle of rookie quarterbacks as the Niners

836
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 3: beat the Texans twenty three to seven. Lanced a couple tds,

837
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 3: and the Niners doubled up Houston yardage. Kyle Shanahan even

838
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 3: covered as a favorite thanks to a late field goal

839
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 3: for a Uns. The Saints beat the Panthers eighteen ten

840
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 3: to keep their playoff hopes alive. Not much happening in

841
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 3: that game, not much yardage, not much of anything Saints games.

842
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 3: I've now gone under in seven of eight career Taysom

843
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 3: Hill starts. The Seahawks punted on their first drive and

844
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 3: then scored on the next nine possessions in a row.

845
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 3: Thanks for coming out, Lions. Seahawks hit the over on

846
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 3: their own fifty one twenty in a victory. Four touchdowns

847
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 3: for Russell Wilson, maybe his last start in Seattle. We'll

848
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 3: see what happens there. Blowout City in New England as

849
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 3: the Patriots beat the Jaguars fifty to ten. Bill Belichick

850
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 3: fifteen to zero at home against rookie quarterbacks in his career,

851
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 3: and the Bears were not particularly good at anything. The

852
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 3: Giants are just that bad. Twenty nine three Chicago. Here's

853
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 3: some numbers for Mike Glennon negative thirty one EPA, negative

854
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 3: thirty completion over expectation twenty four yards. The less we

855
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 3: say about that game, the better. All Right, let's hear

856
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 3: a quick word from our sponsor and get to you

857
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 3: Monday Night at Football.

858
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:09,040
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859
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:12,680
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860
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861
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863
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:26,080
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864
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:29,919
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865
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888
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 4: Let's get back to the show.

889
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:45,280
Speaker 3: Monday Night, Browns Steelers. It's a big AFC North clash

890
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 3: that doesn't matter anymore because the Browns are knocked out

891
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 3: of the playoffs and the Steelers are a long shot.

892
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 3: They might still be able to get in. And we'll

893
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 3: see this line has moved significantly because of that. It

894
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 3: was three and a half heading into Sunday. Now that

895
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 3: the Browns are eliminated, the Steelers are pick them or

896
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 3: a favored minus one. Right now at bat MGM total

897
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 3: is out forty one and a half for him out

898
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 3: all my Mike Tomlin underdog stats lined up and they're

899
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 3: all useless. Now what do we say about this game?

900
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I had the same stats lined up

901
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 1: as well. It's very very frustrating for me. The Browns

902
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 1: are gonna be missing both of their starting safeties and

903
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 1: John Johnson and Ronnie Harrison Junior, in addition to cornerback

904
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 1: Troy Hill. I mean, obviously you got the starters out

905
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 1: there at cornerback, Greedy Williams and whatnot, But I think

906
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 1: Roethlinsburg is gonna have no problem getting the ball to

907
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 1: Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypool. The Browns already gonna have

908
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 1: some advantages running the ball, but when you look at

909
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,360
Speaker 1: the fact how Baker has played over the stretch of

910
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 1: the season, this feels like a game in which the

911
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 1: Steelers have an edge. Obviously, the Browns don't really have

912
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 1: a motivation for this game, with them pretty much being

913
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 1: out of the playoffs. I took some plus three and

914
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: a half. But with this being Roethlisberger's last game in Pittsburgh,

915
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 1: I'm looking at Pittsburgh in this matchup.

916
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, you say the Browns won a motivation.

917
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 3: So here's your Browns motivation. What happened the last time

918
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 3: the Browns played in Pittsburgh. Let me answer for you.

919
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 3: It was in the playoffs last year, and the Browns

920
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 3: embarrassed the Steelers on their home field to end the season.

921
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 3: You don't think Cleveland would love to take Ben Roethlisberg

922
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 3: out of the playoffs embarrassingly in his last game and

923
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,799
Speaker 3: then out of the season forever in his last home game.

924
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 3: I think Browns fans, after two decades of Big Ben,

925
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 3: would love to do that. But Big Ben regular season

926
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 3: twenty four to two and a one straight up lifetime

927
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 3: against the Browns twenty four to two and one. Last

928
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 3: regular season lost the Browns was twenty fourteen. Cleveland's last

929
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 3: win regular season in Pittsburgh two thousand and three. That

930
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 3: was nineteen years ago. It's twenty twenty two now. So yeah,

931
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 3: the Browns some numbers for you. The Browns until they

932
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 3: had won those two games last year they won in

933
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:03,839
Speaker 3: Week seventeen. They wanted the playoffs. Before that, they had

934
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 3: won five of thirty six against the Steelers. So rough

935
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 3: showing for the Browns here, they got a buck history

936
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 3: the underdog trends don't work anymore. But Kevin Stefanski one

937
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 3: and nine against the spread in the division. The only

938
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 3: cover was against the Bengals earlier this year. I think

939
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 3: that the line here, even though it moves so much

940
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 3: minus one is about what I had it before, you know,

941
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 3: before the motivation shift that I thought minus one is

942
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,799
Speaker 3: about right. So I think the line is still there.

943
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:37,399
Speaker 3: I think there's still some value I have the plus

944
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 3: three and a half. I've got some Steelers money line already.

945
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 3: It's basically a pick on a coin flip.

946
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: Now, and as long as actually moving up quite a bit,

947
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 1: we're actually I mean we're looking at some two and

948
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 1: a half in the market.

949
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 2: Who was in the market two and a half in

950
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 2: the market.

951
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: I think if this line gets to three or even

952
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 1: like you're looking at a two and a half, I

953
00:46:58,360 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 1: think it may be worth it to have a cheap

954
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 1: by on up to three on the Cleveland Browns because,

955
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 1: as I mentioned before, the Stillers have really, really, really

956
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 1: struggled to stop the run. Look they put up We

957
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: saw Dalvin Cook at Minnesota Vikings put up almost two

958
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:16,359
Speaker 1: hundred yards rushing on this team. When you look at

959
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 1: the Stellers, what are we They're thirty if a rushing

960
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 1: epa per play on defense, Like this team is really

961
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 1: struggling to stop the run.

962
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 2: Their twenty second in rushing success rate.

963
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 1: So what do we know that Browns like to do?

964
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 1: They like to run the ball with Nick Chubb. I

965
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 1: think Kareem Hunt is questionable for this matchup, But if

966
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:41,280
Speaker 1: Chubb is taking a full workload, it's like you're getting

967
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 1: two and a half points on a team that opened

968
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 1: as three and a half point favorites. I think you

969
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 1: do have a positive expected value wager on the Browns.

970
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 2: At that price. I want you guys to remember that

971
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:55,280
Speaker 2: we're not betting teams for betting prices.

972
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 1: So as much as we love the Stillers at plus

973
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 1: thirty and a half, we thought this game should be

974
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:04,439
Speaker 1: a pick him game. So now that this line's going

975
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 1: to two and a half, I think you've got to

976
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: be looking Cleveland's way.

977
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you. I didn't realize it was moving

978
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 3: already two to two and a half. I think it's

979
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 3: probably a stay away for me. I'm not sure that

980
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,760
Speaker 3: you're getting any real value on Pittsburgh, and I agree

981
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 3: if it gets to that key number at three, you

982
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,400
Speaker 3: just gotta play Cleveland at that point because look the

983
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 3: why is the line moving here? We know it's moving

984
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 3: because of the motivation factor. Oh, the Browns are out now,

985
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 3: only the Steelers can still win. Well, that doesn't change

986
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 3: my motivation. If I'm a Browns player, I hate Big Ben.

987
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 3: I want him to end his game.

988
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 2: In Pittsburgh, even beyond it, even beyond the.

989
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 1: Fact that you know, these guys might have some motivational

990
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: He's eight and four against the spread against his Browns

991
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:48,240
Speaker 1: team at home.

992
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:48,959
Speaker 2: Throughout his career.

993
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:52,240
Speaker 1: But who plays for the Browns right now, Miles Garrett,

994
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield.

995
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 2: They weren't playing.

996
00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger in two thousand and three, two thousand and

997
00:48:58,719 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: four to two thousand and five.

998
00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 2: They weren't here for those games. I think one of the.

999
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 1: Things that we have to realize is as fans and

1000
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 1: as better is that these NFL players are playing for

1001
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 1: the job.

1002
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 2: Everything is on team.

1003
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:12,879
Speaker 1: There's fifty three guys on the roster every single year,

1004
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 1: there's a draft every single year, there's free agency every

1005
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:18,840
Speaker 1: single year, Guys get traded, and guys are playing for

1006
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 1: their career.

1007
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 2: So everything you do shows up on team. Unless you're

1008
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 2: Antonio Brown and you no.

1009
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 1: Longer want to play football anymore, you can throw your

1010
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:29,800
Speaker 1: helmet and your pads into the stand.

1011
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 2: You're gonna go out there and give your best effort.

1012
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 2: So the visional game, the Brown's getting points, I think

1013
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 2: you gotta take yeah, if it gets to three.

1014
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 3: I mean basically, what you're saying at that point is

1015
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 3: from three and a half favored for the Browns to

1016
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 3: three point underdogs. That just the fact that the Browns

1017
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 3: were eliminated from the playoffs without doing anything today, that

1018
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 3: that alone is worth six or six and a half points,

1019
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 3: And that just doesn't make sense. That doesn't job. So

1020
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 3: I agree the value on Pittsburgh is gone, and if

1021
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 3: the keeps going, if it gets to three, I might

1022
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:04,839
Speaker 3: have to buy it back in at Cleveland. And it's

1023
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,400
Speaker 3: just we're playing the number, like you said. So one

1024
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:09,439
Speaker 3: other angle that I might look at if it comes

1025
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 3: available on books. I'm not seeing it right now, but

1026
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 3: I was eyeballing TJ. Watt for Defensive Player of the

1027
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 3: Year seeing him at plus two fifty heading into the

1028
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 3: day today. So it's basically looking like him or Micah Parsons,

1029
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,320
Speaker 3: and I just think we get Defensive Player of the

1030
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:27,839
Speaker 3: Year to the best defensive player.

1031
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: TJ.

1032
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,720
Speaker 3: Watt has never won it, JJ has wonted a few times.

1033
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 3: I think it's TJ's time. He's had a big season,

1034
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:36,560
Speaker 3: he's looked really good, he's got a Monday night game

1035
00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:39,279
Speaker 3: and the spotlight a chance to get it. Dealers can

1036
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:41,279
Speaker 3: still make the playoffs if they win out and get

1037
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 3: a little bit of help there. So if you see

1038
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 3: a plus two fifty, maybe I might look at a

1039
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 3: two hundred two to fifty range. I think that could

1040
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 3: be maybe an angle to play here. I'm not super

1041
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 3: interested in the line the way that this one has

1042
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,440
Speaker 3: moved now, and like you said, we may have to

1043
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 3: come on the Browns. I am looking at both of

1044
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:01,479
Speaker 3: these teams for my Week eighteen hot reads. So let's

1045
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 3: get to our hot read before I wrap up here.

1046
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 4: Hot Wrap seventy ice rights ice cream.

1047
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna start out with the Browns pick, but

1048
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:17,120
Speaker 3: I'm not taking the Browns. Rahim. Why in the world

1049
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 3: are the Cincinnati Bengals the possible one seed. Cincinnati Bengals

1050
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:26,759
Speaker 3: underdogs in Cleveland, the same Cleveland team that we think

1051
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 3: should just move six points because they're not motivated against

1052
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 3: the Steelers, are three point favorites against the Bengals. I

1053
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 3: don't understand it is that has that line moved or

1054
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,800
Speaker 3: the bang. I checked like five different times, thinking I

1055
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:42,399
Speaker 3: must be seeing this wrong. The Bengals are, in fact

1056
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 3: three point underdogs in Cleveland. Correct, yes they are. I

1057
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 3: don't understand it. Look, I know the Browns forty one

1058
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 3: sixteen in Cincinnati earlier this season, so I'm guessing that

1059
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 3: that's the reason. I don't really buy it. First drive

1060
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 3: of the game, that one Bengals drove right down the

1061
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 3: field and we're about to score pick six ninety nine yards.

1062
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 3: The Bengals had three turnovers to none and two turnovers

1063
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,240
Speaker 3: and down, so really a five to zero turnover margin.

1064
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, you lose by a bunch that way. That

1065
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 3: the Bengals had twenty five first downs to fourteen, they

1066
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 3: were good in that game. Joe Burrow left the game

1067
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 3: for a while hurt. I'm not going to read too

1068
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 3: much in the one game Againstfanski that was the only

1069
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 3: time in two seasons that he's covered against a division opponent.

1070
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 3: The Bengals this is it. This is their chance to

1071
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 3: possibly get the one seed. Still, we know that they'll

1072
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 3: schedule those games so they won't know yet. They'll certainly

1073
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 3: be trying. They can move up if Tennessee loses or

1074
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 3: if the Chiefs lose. And I just think this is

1075
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 3: the Bengals moment here. I don't know how this team

1076
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 3: is a underdog, especially at the key number plus three

1077
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:49,319
Speaker 3: gave me the plus three short road dog, sixty seven

1078
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 3: percent against the spread on the season, fifty eight percent

1079
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:56,319
Speaker 3: money line ROI I'm all over Cincinnati on this one.

1080
00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 3: I don't understand the line at all.

1081
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:00,440
Speaker 1: I think this lot is the way it is because

1082
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 1: they actually moved the Chiefs game, the Chiefs Broncos game

1083
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:11,319
Speaker 1: to Saturday, right Saturday. Yeah, yeah, they need the Chiefs

1084
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 1: Broncos game is Saturday. So it appears that so that that.

1085
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 3: Could definitely shift things. So yeah, keep an eye. Maybe

1086
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 3: the reason here I try to figure that.

1087
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:23,799
Speaker 1: It's like that's what the chief the Chiefs Broncos game

1088
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:27,800
Speaker 1: is on Saturday. Titans Texans the Titans Texas game is

1089
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,760
Speaker 1: at one pm. Their ten and a half point favorites

1090
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 1: over the Texans.

1091
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 3: So it's so the Titans get the big lead on

1092
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 3: the Texans, and then they're saying so they're building in

1093
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:39,800
Speaker 3: a chance that the Bengals kind of do what I

1094
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:43,960
Speaker 3: said for the Cowboys lock in, just set this one out. Yeah,

1095
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:44,879
Speaker 3: I don't know, I'm not sure.

1096
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:47,800
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe maybe they'll play a half. I mean basically,

1097
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:49,800
Speaker 1: they need they need the Chiefs, and they need the

1098
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 1: Titans to love in order to get the number one seed,

1099
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:53,760
Speaker 1: which is unlikely.

1100
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I don't know that they're gonna get the

1101
00:53:55,640 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 3: one seed. I'll say this though, I considered playing the

1102
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 3: Texans underdogs as my hot read. The only reason they're

1103
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 3: not my hot reads because I don't think I need

1104
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 3: a hot read it that line's not gonna move in

1105
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 3: Houston's direction. I'm gonna get more points if I wait.

1106
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 3: But you better believe I'm betting against Tennessee every chance

1107
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 3: I get the rest of the way. So I think

1108
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:16,840
Speaker 3: Houston is live in that game to possibly beat Tennessee.

1109
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:19,360
Speaker 3: And if that's the case, even if it stays close,

1110
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 3: then Cincinnati's gonna keep fighting here. So I like it.

1111
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 3: I'll be betting Cincinnati. I'll be betting Houston on that

1112
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 3: one too. What's your hot read for next week?

1113
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:30,279
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the Atlanta Falcons plus four

1114
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 1: and a half. You know, the last time these two

1115
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:36,880
Speaker 1: teams played, the Falcons actually beat this team outright. And

1116
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 1: when you look at the Saints, their offense has been

1117
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:42,239
Speaker 1: down right a visible. They scored nine points against the

1118
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 1: Buccaneers and they have a solid defense. Scored three points

1119
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:48,720
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins, and I know they put up eighteen

1120
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 1: points today against the Carolina Panthers, but it wasn't the

1121
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:56,640
Speaker 1: type of eighteen points that you know, really looks really good.

1122
00:54:56,719 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 1: I mean, like I mean, yardish wise, they probably had

1123
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 1: their best the artist output.

1124
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 2: That we've seen in three weeks. But I just I

1125
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:07,320
Speaker 2: don't have trust in this offense the way they've been playing.

1126
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 1: I think the Falcon they showed me something going up

1127
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 1: into Buffalo and playing this team tight, and it appears

1128
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 1: that they really haven't quit. So to me, the late

1129
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 1: four and a half points against in this divisional opponent.

1130
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 1: I like the Falcons in this matchup, and I think

1131
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 1: they could probably win this game outright and possibly play spoil.

1132
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you on this one for sure. I

1133
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 3: had this one circle as well. You know, I had

1134
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 3: some long shot chances on the Falcons to make the playoffs.

1135
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 3: They're obviously out now, but part of it was because

1136
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 3: I thought they could win this one against the Saints.

1137
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 3: The line seems too high to me. Obviously moved in

1138
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:42,359
Speaker 3: the same direction. Look, if you look back at many

1139
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:44,840
Speaker 3: many years in a row, over and over again, what

1140
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 3: we see is that the teams who are still playing

1141
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 3: for playoffs or fighting for position are getting too many points.

1142
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 3: It happens every single year of these last couple of weeks,

1143
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 3: and we're giving too many points to the teams who

1144
00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 3: are still trying, quote unquote, not giving enough credit to

1145
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 3: the teams who are still trying. Like you said, they're

1146
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:05,520
Speaker 3: trying to make an impression. They're trying to close out

1147
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 3: the season strong. I like the Felcans there. I'm going

1148
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 3: back to the AFC North Well, back to the Steelers

1149
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 3: one more time for this one where he still is

1150
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 3: an underdog. Mike Tomlin, give me that Rara underdog at

1151
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:24,360
Speaker 3: the Ravens plus five. The Ravens and Steelers both I

1152
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 3: believe can still make the playoffs, but I think it

1153
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:30,400
Speaker 3: probably includes the Colts losing to the Jaguars and some

1154
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:34,040
Speaker 3: other weird stuff. Pittsburgh looks like can make the playoffs

1155
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:37,760
Speaker 3: by winning both games, and then they need either Chargers

1156
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:40,879
Speaker 3: or Colts loss, so it's possible they're both on the road.

1157
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:46,760
Speaker 3: Here's the thing, Steelers are plus five, it's Steelers Ravens.

1158
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 3: These are field goal games. Stop putting the line above

1159
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 3: three points. We know that these games all is are

1160
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:58,240
Speaker 3: close since two thousand and five. When this matchup happens,

1161
00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:02,319
Speaker 3: Steelers Ravens. If either team is more than a field

1162
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:06,400
Speaker 3: goal favorite, the underdog in this rivalry is seventeen and

1163
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 3: two against the spread since two thousand and five. When

1164
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 3: the line is above a field goal, you take the underdog.

1165
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,439
Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin underdog Stats one more time for the year,

1166
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:19,360
Speaker 3: sawny one percent against the spread as a dog after

1167
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:22,920
Speaker 3: Week five, twenty nine to twenty one. Straight up, I

1168
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 3: think the Steelers are still alive. I think they can

1169
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 3: hang around. Certainly, I'll feel better if Pittsburgh wins against

1170
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,200
Speaker 3: the Browns because you're kind of counting on them still trying.

1171
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 3: But again, they're gonna try. It's the Ravens. This is

1172
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:37,840
Speaker 3: the big rivalry game. I gotta take the points with

1173
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:38,600
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh here.

1174
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I really love this one.

1175
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I've been fating the Ravens for probably

1176
00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 1: about a month straight right now. A lot of it

1177
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 1: has to do with their secondary to continue to be

1178
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:49,960
Speaker 1: banged up. I know Matthew Stafford couldn't take advantage of

1179
00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:52,439
Speaker 1: it today in the manner that I thought he would,

1180
00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 1: but when it came down to the end, I mean

1181
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:57,959
Speaker 1: he got what he wanted in terms of being able

1182
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 1: to score the ball and taking the lead, and I

1183
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 1: think Ben Roethlisberger is going to be able to do

1184
00:58:03,760 --> 00:58:07,960
Speaker 1: that next week against this banged up rate the secondary

1185
00:58:08,040 --> 00:58:11,240
Speaker 1: who's just been struggling to stop teams. Look, they're number

1186
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:14,720
Speaker 1: one and exposed their dead last and explosive pass play rate,

1187
00:58:15,120 --> 00:58:18,600
Speaker 1: allowing twelve percent of passing plays to go for twenty

1188
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:21,360
Speaker 1: yards or more. I think their twenty eighth and EPN

1189
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:25,200
Speaker 1: could play thirtieth a success rate on pass defense. We

1190
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 1: all know that the Stillers can't really run the ball,

1191
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 1: so a lot of their run game is the extension

1192
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:33,760
Speaker 1: of the short passing game, and I think the Stillers

1193
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 1: we're able to find some success with that in their

1194
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:37,800
Speaker 1: first matchup, and I think they'll be able to find

1195
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 1: even more successful it now because Marlon Humphrey's not playing

1196
00:58:41,040 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 1: in this matchup. So I like that pick from you,

1197
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 1: and I think it won't surprised me to see this

1198
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 1: line go down to three. I mean, maybe Lamar Jackson

1199
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 1: played next week, but the mark Jackson hasn't played in

1200
00:58:51,600 --> 00:58:54,080
Speaker 1: three or four weeks at this point, so he's probably

1201
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 1: not going to be the same quarterback. I like it.

1202
00:58:57,680 --> 00:58:59,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I would say to you, I'm gonna pay

1203
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 3: play both of these. You know, we always play them

1204
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 3: when we're putting them out. But I want to make

1205
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:06,600
Speaker 3: sure I get these picks in before Monday night, because

1206
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 3: if the Steelers do beat the Browns, then that's all

1207
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:12,040
Speaker 3: the reason for the Browns line to move away from me.

1208
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,320
Speaker 3: Maybe get that one closer to a pick them and

1209
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 3: the Steelers maybe to catch, you know, a couple less

1210
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 3: points on their line as well, So I want to

1211
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 3: grab that one before the game. Make sure to get

1212
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 3: my pick in. That is going to wrap it up

1213
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 3: today at the Action Network podcast, Don't forget to Rate

1214
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 3: and review on Apple and Spotify where they're at now too,

1215
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 3: stucking Rayba. On Wednesday night, they're back with their NFL

1216
00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:37,080
Speaker 3: six pack betting guide. Raheen and I are back Friday.

1217
00:59:37,440 --> 00:59:39,760
Speaker 3: We will look at the big Week eighteen games to

1218
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 3: get you set up for the weekend and the look

1219
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:44,240
Speaker 3: ahead our final week of the season, getting ready for

1220
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Finally, playoffs. We'll come out playoffs for Ian Palmer.

1221
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 3: I'm Brandon Anderson. This has been the Action Network podcast.

1222
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:53,800
Speaker 3: Here onto Week eighteen.

1223
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:05,600
Speaker 2: The students of the Scales up students to the SA