WEBVTT - Biden’s Boost to Competition Promises Long-Run Gains

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. It's a bunch of headlines.

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and I just want to mention before we get

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<v Speaker 1>into our next guest. The U s c d C

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<v Speaker 1>updating its COVID nighteen guidance for kindergarten through high school,

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<v Speaker 1>providing flexibility for local decision makers to determine what's needed

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<v Speaker 1>to safely keep kids in the classroom. We are, though, Tim,

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<v Speaker 1>seeing infections rising across most regions of the world as

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<v Speaker 1>that delta variant spreads that from the World Health organizations

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<v Speaker 1>chief scientistic We're also seeing South Africa going through a

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<v Speaker 1>third wave as it's just battering the country right now.

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<v Speaker 1>And in Canada, residents in Ontario kulds the vast majority

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<v Speaker 1>of restrictions lifted in August. A tale of two different

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<v Speaker 1>stories when we look around the world when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the vaccine and with COVID, And then there's those

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<v Speaker 1>late day headlines from Fiser yesterday looking for emergency authorization

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<v Speaker 1>for a third booster desk. Let's get to it with

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Ian lust Beta, clinical professor Medicine at n y

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<v Speaker 1>U Land going on the phone in New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>I and so good to have you here. Happy Friday. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta start with the Fiser headline. We are all

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<v Speaker 1>trying to understand what's going on. Do we all need

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<v Speaker 1>to be all of a sudden now a little worried

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<v Speaker 1>about when our vaccine is going to wear off? When

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<v Speaker 1>we need to get a booster. What's the conversations you

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<v Speaker 1>guys are having at the hospital? Sure? Happy Friday, Thanks guys.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's no question the Delta variant, the Indian variant,

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<v Speaker 1>is really becoming a global dominant stream. I'm not surprising.

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<v Speaker 1>We're really seeing evolution and action here right. The organisms

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<v Speaker 1>adapt to a changing environment. They tend to become more

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<v Speaker 1>fit uh and outcompete other organisms even if they're similar.

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<v Speaker 1>So what we're really seeing is the virus adapt and

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<v Speaker 1>change and become more contagious, higher concentrations in sneezing or coughing.

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<v Speaker 1>At this point, though it seems to be similar risk.

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<v Speaker 1>In other words, we're not seeing more deaths really as

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<v Speaker 1>a result of delta other than in people who are

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<v Speaker 1>not vaccinated. So for people who are not vaccinated, of

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalized patients are now patients who have not received vaccines.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is certainly an argument for the vaccine. The

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<v Speaker 1>concern is that we are seeing some breakthrough cases. So

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<v Speaker 1>I've certainly had my share of patients who have received

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<v Speaker 1>both vaccines and who then become symptomatic with the delta variant.

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<v Speaker 1>And a lot of this data is really based out

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<v Speaker 1>of Israel, where they were vaccinated before we were, and

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<v Speaker 1>they're beginning to see more breakthrough case says as well.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's really the concern. Why why is that Is

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<v Speaker 1>it because of the delta variant? That's a great question.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it could be for a few reasons. One is, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>even though we're seeing antibodies that do slightly decrease over time.

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<v Speaker 1>I can tell you most of the patients that we

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<v Speaker 1>check for spike protein, and we try not to check everyone.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, that would be a waste of resources if

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<v Speaker 1>you're checking antibodies on everyone who's who's been vaccinated UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But in select people who may be traveling or have

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<v Speaker 1>other issues, those antibodies are sky high. But it does

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<v Speaker 1>look like over time, uh, and certainly in Israel UM

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<v Speaker 1>that antibody levels are dropping. So probably a combination of

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<v Speaker 1>slightly lower antibody levels and perhaps a more aggressive variant

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<v Speaker 1>in DELTA is why we're seeing UM these breakthrough infections.

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<v Speaker 1>The good news is in terms of hospitalizations, and part

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<v Speaker 1>of this is our data and part of it is Israel's.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we're seeing a range of effectiveness that drops

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<v Speaker 1>from to about nine. So the vaccines are still very effective.

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<v Speaker 1>The question is will that begin to wane over time?

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<v Speaker 1>The other question that comes up is should we be

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<v Speaker 1>developing a delta vaccine, which does make sense, but maybe

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<v Speaker 1>we should put our efforts into vaccinating more people than

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<v Speaker 1>giving a third dose to people who have already received

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<v Speaker 1>you're preaching to the choir. So what's interesting though, is,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've had this conversation this week, um Dr les

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<v Speaker 1>Bader is that if you can't get those people to

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<v Speaker 1>get the vaccine, you can't get to hurt immunity, and

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<v Speaker 1>that increasingly gives the virus the opportunity to seize on

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<v Speaker 1>two new hosts to continue to mutate, which could potentially

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not I'm not a Susie pessimism or pessimistic kind

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<v Speaker 1>of person, but it's it does open the or to

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<v Speaker 1>creating a virus that is even more potent, more lethal,

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<v Speaker 1>and more contagious, contagious than what we're dealing with right now. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the reality of it. Right. So the longer the

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<v Speaker 1>virus replicates globally, the higher the chance of another variant developing.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's inevitable that there will be you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and other variants you know, lambda all the way out

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<v Speaker 1>to Iota. Um. So we certainly feel that there will

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<v Speaker 1>be more variants. The question is will they be potentially

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<v Speaker 1>more lethal? It is an argument to get everyone vaccinated.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, there's hesitancy, and rarely we are seeing you know,

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<v Speaker 1>odd symptoms after people get vaccinated, and you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>always have to tell patients, look, what is the risk

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<v Speaker 1>of getting COVID versus the risk of the vaccine. The

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<v Speaker 1>risk of you know, having a complication from COVID is

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<v Speaker 1>far greater than the risk of a complication from the vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>although we do see a handful of the issues after that.

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<v Speaker 1>But I agree with you. I think if if we

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<v Speaker 1>can't get people every vaccinated and someone is willing to

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<v Speaker 1>take a third shot, that probably would provide some protection. Yes, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Les, just in twenty seconds, are we gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>wearing masks again in the fall? You know? I think

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<v Speaker 1>right now we're seeing people well protected. There's no real

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<v Speaker 1>urgent concern. The fall is a few months away. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't see any real concerns. I think we're beginning to

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<v Speaker 1>de mask. If Delta really takes off for another variant,

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<v Speaker 1>we might have to rethink that approach. But right now

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<v Speaker 1>people are taking their masks off and I think they're

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<v Speaker 1>doing well. Let's get right back to Dr Ian lesbad Our,

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<v Speaker 1>clinical professor of Medicine at n y U Land going

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New York City. One more thing

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<v Speaker 1>on the virus and then we want to move on. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>what's the end game? You know, in terms of how

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<v Speaker 1>you think Dr Lesbada, this works out. Is it just

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<v Speaker 1>a case of a lot of people. I'm thinking of us.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just looking at the U S situation. A lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people get the vaccine and that helps create some

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<v Speaker 1>kind of herd immunity. You've got other people who are

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<v Speaker 1>going to get the virus. They're either going to recover

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<v Speaker 1>develop their own immunity, or they're going to die off.

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<v Speaker 1>Unfortunately to be so blunt, and then that's how we

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<v Speaker 1>get to a better place. Ultimately, Well, this is a

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<v Speaker 1>global problem, and that even though we like to focus

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<v Speaker 1>on the United States, we we really can't. Um at

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<v Speaker 1>this point, I believe globally, out of eight billion, eight

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<v Speaker 1>plus billion, people somewhere in the three billion range may

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<v Speaker 1>have received you know one, one or more vaccines. We

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<v Speaker 1>don't really have great data from countries like China and Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>and we also really don't know how effective those vaccines are.

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<v Speaker 1>They seem to be not nearly as effective as the

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<v Speaker 1>you know, M R and A vaccines. I think, um,

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<v Speaker 1>we are going through this for at least another year

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<v Speaker 1>or more. We've back in nineteen eighteen it took three

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<v Speaker 1>years in multiple waves with a Spanish flu um and

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're going to see a higher death count

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<v Speaker 1>and higher disability, and it may be even years of

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<v Speaker 1>post covid or long hal symptoms. Um, this is not

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<v Speaker 1>a completely benign illness. Even if you get it. Loss

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<v Speaker 1>of smell and taste and so forth may be transient,

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<v Speaker 1>but there may be other issues. So we do need

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<v Speaker 1>to work on things perhaps like ipmecton or other maybe

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<v Speaker 1>off the shelf medications or other treatments or preventatives. While

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<v Speaker 1>we're waiting to vaccinate people, we really have not focused

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<v Speaker 1>enough on that area of research, and I think we

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<v Speaker 1>need to do that, and I think we still have

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<v Speaker 1>kind of enough a rough year or two in the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. I believe the as we said, UM, we

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<v Speaker 1>still have a pretty good level of protection, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>even against the delta variant. But in the areas of

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<v Speaker 1>the country that are not vaccinated, they're going to have

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<v Speaker 1>an increase in hospitalizations and other problems. It's it's look,

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<v Speaker 1>this is something that we are and we know we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna have to be living with for years. And as

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<v Speaker 1>you mentioned the question of treatment as a question of

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<v Speaker 1>getting more and more people vaccinated, Dr less bide A,

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<v Speaker 1>well have you. I want to talk about the heat

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<v Speaker 1>wave that is hitting parts of the United States. California

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<v Speaker 1>bracing for another weekend of heat that could set records

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<v Speaker 1>temperatures above add ten degrees fahrenheit in some parts of

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<v Speaker 1>the Central Valley of California. As a doctor, as a

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<v Speaker 1>medical professional, how do people what do people need to

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<v Speaker 1>know about surviving these type of heat? Very important? We're

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<v Speaker 1>definitely seeing some global changes. Uh. Why and for how long?

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<v Speaker 1>We don't really know. UM. I do want to mention

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<v Speaker 1>something called Ariel's Checklist, which people can google a R

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<v Speaker 1>I E. L. Ariel's Checklist, and it talks about acclimating

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<v Speaker 1>to the heat, uh, not hiking in the middle of

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<v Speaker 1>the day, slowly acclimating, hydrating, wearing loose clothing, getting enough

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<v Speaker 1>sleep UH, and determining the wet bulb globe temperature. In

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<v Speaker 1>other words, really what is the ambient temperature? And why

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<v Speaker 1>this is very important is because, based on your age,

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<v Speaker 1>health and activity, once the these temperature begins to rise,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of problems happen. There can be nausea, headache, dehydration,

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<v Speaker 1>and once the body's temperature goes above one oh four

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<v Speaker 1>often it's irreversible. You can have confusion, fainting, seizures UH,

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<v Speaker 1>and death quite frankly, so once you get irreversible damage

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<v Speaker 1>to the brain or the heart, uh, it's it's a

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<v Speaker 1>real problem. So it's very important for people to understand

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<v Speaker 1>the difference between heat exposure, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke.

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<v Speaker 1>Heat stroke is really the life threatening, you know, condition,

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<v Speaker 1>and to be very careful to get into cool areas,

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<v Speaker 1>have some air conditioning, even if that's not available, to

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<v Speaker 1>minimize your exposure, because this is often undiagnosed and people

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<v Speaker 1>by the time they're symptomatic or often very far along

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<v Speaker 1>with with body temperatures and core temperatures that are very

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<v Speaker 1>elevated beyond what they are aware and people around them

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<v Speaker 1>should pay attention and see if someone does not look

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<v Speaker 1>good when they're outside, respond right away. Don't think they're

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<v Speaker 1>making this up. It's it's a very lethful uh and

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<v Speaker 1>often under diagnosed condition. And increasingly we're seeing these hotter

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<v Speaker 1>temperatures coming earlier and sooner and uh more frequent, uh

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<v Speaker 1>in places that normally didn't like the Pacific Northwest. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that was shocking, crazy, crazy, crazy. UM. Thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Ia los Pader, Clinical Professor of Medicine, m y

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<v Speaker 1>U Lengo Medical Center on the phone in New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So our

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<v Speaker 1>tough story on this Friday, of course, present find signing

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<v Speaker 1>that sweeping executive order. It's all about promoting competition across

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<v Speaker 1>American industries and in the labor market. He's calling on

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<v Speaker 1>regulators to take steps to lower drug prices, tough and

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<v Speaker 1>murder enforcement in tech and banking, give workers more power

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<v Speaker 1>to change jobs and negotiate higher wages. There is a lot,

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<v Speaker 1>I should say, there are a lot moving parts to this.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get to it and with what the Bloomberg audience

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<v Speaker 1>needs to know. David McLachlan is Justice Department of Justice

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<v Speaker 1>reporter for Bloomberg News, joins us on the phone from Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>d C. David, this thing is wide ranging, it's far,

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<v Speaker 1>it's sweeping. What do we need to know about the

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<v Speaker 1>most important parts of it? Yeah, so it covers about

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<v Speaker 1>seventy two different initiatives and and proposals. Um And the

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<v Speaker 1>basic idea is that, um, you know, competition and a

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<v Speaker 1>trust enforcement is primarily handled by the Federal Try Commission

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<v Speaker 1>and the Justice Department they review mergers and and UM

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<v Speaker 1>monopoly conduct and that sort of thing. But what the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of this The idea of this order is to

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<v Speaker 1>basically say to all government agencies that oversee different industries

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<v Speaker 1>that you have a role to play in promoting competitions

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<v Speaker 1>through rules and regulations, and that those agencies should be

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<v Speaker 1>or could be doing more to promote uh competition in

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<v Speaker 1>the market that they oversee. So is this about consumers winning?

0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:07.880
<v Speaker 1>Is this about America winning against the rest of the

0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.440
<v Speaker 1>rest of the world? Of what is what's the endgame?

0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm kind of a payoff kind of girl, Like, what

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 1>what's the point? Well, what I think this is a

0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:23.680
<v Speaker 1>response to is a concern that many economists, any trust

0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:29.000
<v Speaker 1>experts have been raising over the last few years UM

0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:34.760
<v Speaker 1>about industries UM becoming over the last couple of decades

0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:39.079
<v Speaker 1>very consolidated. And we see that mostly or maybe primarily

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.439
<v Speaker 1>in the tech company in the tech industry, with the

0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.760
<v Speaker 1>big tech companies like like Amazon and Google, et cetera.

0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 1>But really it's an issue that UM many people see

0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:53.880
<v Speaker 1>happening across the economy and the worry is that UM,

0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:58.360
<v Speaker 1>it's leading to maybe higher prices, less choice for consumers. UM.

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:00.840
<v Speaker 1>There's also this labor market issue. You if you live

0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.600
<v Speaker 1>in a town with fewer employers. This is definitely an

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:07.120
<v Speaker 1>issue in rural areas. You know, they have more leverage

0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:10.480
<v Speaker 1>over you as a worker, and you have um less

0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:16.760
<v Speaker 1>leveraged bargain for higher wages, which the President mentioned today.

0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 1>So this is really an effort to go beyond tech

0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>the stories that tend to be in the news right now,

0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 1>to cover other industries, UM and help consumers and workers. Okay,

0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:31.760
<v Speaker 1>that's what you know. It's funny. We were just talking

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:34.520
<v Speaker 1>with Till whatever Business Week and Eric Palcunas about David

0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:36.960
<v Speaker 1>versus Goliath, and it was about engine number one going

0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:39.880
<v Speaker 1>after x on mobile. Uh, and they had a big win.

0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 1>And is that what it's about, is David versus Goliath?

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:47.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, individuals consumers who in many ways and and

0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 1>and some workers and we saw this play out during

0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.840
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic, right that really got hurt hard and we're

0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.320
<v Speaker 1>left behind. While we know that there were some workers

0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.160
<v Speaker 1>that were able to work at home, there was no

0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.760
<v Speaker 1>really disruption in their lives. Uh. You know, So is

0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:03.600
<v Speaker 1>that what it's about, like getting to some of those

0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:10.200
<v Speaker 1>inequities that we really saw big time during the pandemic. Yeah,

0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:13.840
<v Speaker 1>because there's a plenty of research. Uh. And then then

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 1>then some people dispute this, but there is research showing that. Um.

0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 1>So when you when you have a monopoly or dominant

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.760
<v Speaker 1>firmative market, of course that company may have the power

0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:25.000
<v Speaker 1>to raise prices and may lead to less choice. But

0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:28.520
<v Speaker 1>but some people think they are wider macroeconomic effects, effects

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:34.160
<v Speaker 1>on productivity, UM and income inequality. Like the superstar companies

0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:38.440
<v Speaker 1>may pay their workers very well, but others in the

0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.840
<v Speaker 1>economy who may not be working at those companies might

0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 1>be losing out. And so um, there are worries that

0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.480
<v Speaker 1>that when not dominant firms or just a handful of

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:53.720
<v Speaker 1>dominant firms are controlling markets, there are bigger um problems

0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:57.440
<v Speaker 1>that are being caused. Um. And so I think that's

0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 1>what the White and the White House is trying to

0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:01.880
<v Speaker 1>get out with. So, David, that what happens now, because

0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 1>as we saw, we were listening to this, we were

0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:05.880
<v Speaker 1>watching it, it was playing on our YouTube. When Biden

0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.520
<v Speaker 1>signed this executive order, he was flanked by members of

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.520
<v Speaker 1>his cabinet, by antitrust officials. What do they go into

0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:15.840
<v Speaker 1>now in order to put this into action. Well, so

0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:20.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of this now gets into rulemaking and regulations,

0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 1>which UM kendy as you know, kind of a long

0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:29.520
<v Speaker 1>ruling process because it can involved court challenges. So so

0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:34.400
<v Speaker 1>for example, one of the UM proposals are directives that

0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 1>is in the order is restoring net neutrality UM the

0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:43.520
<v Speaker 1>requirements that Internet providers treat Internet traffic, but basically the

0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:49.800
<v Speaker 1>same UM, and listeners might remember that that was a

0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.080
<v Speaker 1>big fight for many years Obama tried to the Obama

0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.800
<v Speaker 1>administration implemented that neutrality rule. They were challenged in the courts.

0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:01.160
<v Speaker 1>Eventually we're undone and so that went on for many years,

0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.800
<v Speaker 1>so the impact was not immediate, and so I think

0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:09.720
<v Speaker 1>that could be UM. I don't know if every proposal

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.840
<v Speaker 1>will be fought in the courts, but uh, some certainly

0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:16.480
<v Speaker 1>will be UM. So it could take some time, but

0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:20.000
<v Speaker 1>even some agencies like the FTC are already acting to

0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:23.840
<v Speaker 1>UM implement some of these ideas. Well. It's interesting when

0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:25.840
<v Speaker 1>you were kicked off, you said, seventy two new different

0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 1>initiatives and proposals, all government agencies ever seeing different industries.

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.560
<v Speaker 1>It's all about being more competitive, and I was thinking, yeah,

0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:34.399
<v Speaker 1>but it's an executive order, which could be overturned in

0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:36.840
<v Speaker 1>a couple of years if there's a new president in

0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:40.240
<v Speaker 1>the White House. But I do wonder is this potentially

0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:44.280
<v Speaker 1>going to create some significant changes in terms of how

0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:50.240
<v Speaker 1>US big business operates. Well, that's uh, certainly the hope

0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:54.439
<v Speaker 1>by by those who want more aggressive UM. Any trust

0:17:54.440 --> 0:18:00.440
<v Speaker 1>and force countee a lot of problems in in different markets. UM.

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think a lot of the directives in

0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:04.960
<v Speaker 1>the in the in the order we're telling like the

0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:09.879
<v Speaker 1>any trust enforcement agencies can get tougher on on mergers

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:14.360
<v Speaker 1>and so. Um that's a decision that the agencies will

0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:18.360
<v Speaker 1>have to make abically based on the facts of specific deals.

0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:20.600
<v Speaker 1>But you know what they sort of does is it

0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:26.160
<v Speaker 1>gives political support to enforcers and other regulators to take

0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 1>tougher action. They're not going to feel like they're out

0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:32.000
<v Speaker 1>in left field or um, you know, unsupported. If they

0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:34.160
<v Speaker 1>want to do something right now, they face their their

0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:37.520
<v Speaker 1>their bossony this on Monday. If it's like, hey, wait

0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:42.240
<v Speaker 1>a minute, we had that big signing, remember that. Um, yeah, exactly.

0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:45.840
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, Davi McLaughlin for breaking it down

0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:48.280
<v Speaker 1>for US. Bloomberg News Department of Justice reporter on the

0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:51.880
<v Speaker 1>phone from Washington, d C. This is Bloomberg Business Week

0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:56.000
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic from

0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:58.879
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Tim, what are you doing on Sunday? I'm

0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:02.800
<v Speaker 1>going to be here. I'm going to be hosting, co

0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:05.639
<v Speaker 1>hosting with that Lolo and Emily Chang, the special Billionaires

0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:08.560
<v Speaker 1>going to space this one Richard Branson looking forward to

0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:09.920
<v Speaker 1>There's gonna be some cool stuff. And you know who's

0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:11.640
<v Speaker 1>gonna be on the ground there in New Mexica, none

0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:14.320
<v Speaker 1>other than a Bloomberg News is at Low reporter who's

0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:16.280
<v Speaker 1>right now on the phone from San Francisco, right in

0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:18.640
<v Speaker 1>between jumping up a plane getting back from Sun Valley

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:22.159
<v Speaker 1>about to getting another plane to head to Spaceport America. Ed.

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.760
<v Speaker 1>Are you tired yet? I'm tired, but I'm excited. You know,

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 1>these are not bad gigs, They're great. Hey, So take

0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:32.520
<v Speaker 1>us through exactly what's going to happen on Sunday morning

0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.280
<v Speaker 1>at nine am Eastern time. Yeah, that's a good that's

0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:37.680
<v Speaker 1>a good way place to start, right. So, the Virgin

0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:41.280
<v Speaker 1>Galactic Launch System is a two part to imagine an

0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:44.439
<v Speaker 1>airplane that is dual fuselage with a big wing that

0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:48.560
<v Speaker 1>connects both sides, and then the actual spaceship is planted

0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:50.760
<v Speaker 1>in the middle, so it takes off like a normal airplane,

0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:54.800
<v Speaker 1>climbs and climbs and climbs to a height which is

0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:56.440
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a surprise to some people, but

0:19:56.480 --> 0:20:01.720
<v Speaker 1>around fifty ft THENT and just context, that's about twenty

0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:04.159
<v Speaker 1>feet higher than like a commercial airliner would fly that

0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 1>we're crying across the United States, so it is it

0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:08.840
<v Speaker 1>is pretty high attitude altitude. That's just the stage one.

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:12.320
<v Speaker 1>So you hit fifty feet and then then it's release, release,

0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:15.280
<v Speaker 1>and the rocket part drops from the middle of the wing,

0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:19.200
<v Speaker 1>and then it's engine ignites, and then it accelerates rapidly

0:20:19.240 --> 0:20:23.280
<v Speaker 1>on an upward arc to around fifty to fifty miles

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:27.280
<v Speaker 1>above Earth's atmosphere, which is the point of controversy because

0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:29.720
<v Speaker 1>there's a debate about whether that really is going into

0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:35.080
<v Speaker 1>space or not. Is it. Well, if you're on NASA,

0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:37.719
<v Speaker 1>and I think NASA is a pretty good standard, you

0:20:37.720 --> 0:20:40.399
<v Speaker 1>know to go by. NASA says that anything above fifty

0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:44.000
<v Speaker 1>miles above the Earth's atmosphere above Earth is space that

0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:48.159
<v Speaker 1>anyone goes beyond that point is technically an astronaut, but

0:20:48.200 --> 0:20:51.160
<v Speaker 1>others disagree. The others say that the common line, which

0:20:51.240 --> 0:20:54.320
<v Speaker 1>is sixty two miles above Earth, the kind of internationally

0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:58.159
<v Speaker 1>recognized boundary space, is true space. And Blue Origin you

0:20:58.240 --> 0:21:01.439
<v Speaker 1>follow them on Twitter, They've been tweeting the differences between

0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:05.119
<v Speaker 1>their system and their ambitions versus Virgin Galactics, and they

0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:08.439
<v Speaker 1>say that Virgin Galactic are not going into space. Blue Origin,

0:21:08.480 --> 0:21:10.720
<v Speaker 1>which is the company owned by Jeff Bezos, says that

0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:15.280
<v Speaker 1>they simply are operating a high altitude plane. Okay, hold on,

0:21:15.320 --> 0:21:17.240
<v Speaker 1>what do you think about this? Because here we are.

0:21:17.359 --> 0:21:20.080
<v Speaker 1>This is not when they'se versus McDonald's duking it out.

0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:25.679
<v Speaker 1>That's a really good analogy. Why why is this happening?

0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:27.879
<v Speaker 1>Because it's not like, you know, this is open to

0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:32.000
<v Speaker 1>normal people yet, like who cares? This is cool? The

0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:35.199
<v Speaker 1>last time that the Virgin Galactics CEO, Michael cold Glazier

0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:37.240
<v Speaker 1>was on bloom Blow Television, he said, this is not

0:21:37.359 --> 0:21:40.600
<v Speaker 1>about a race between two billionaires. Let's be honest, guys,

0:21:40.880 --> 0:21:46.040
<v Speaker 1>come on, let's real. Jeff bez Us walked past me

0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:49.159
<v Speaker 1>yesterday in some valley. I've shouted out to him, Jeff,

0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:51.720
<v Speaker 1>how are you feeling about Blue Origin? How are you

0:21:51.760 --> 0:21:54.600
<v Speaker 1>feeling about July twenty, and he didn't reply. By comparison,

0:21:55.040 --> 0:21:57.800
<v Speaker 1>Richard Branson has been on international media and TV for

0:21:58.000 --> 0:22:02.200
<v Speaker 1>week drumming up interesting excitement about this. You know, when

0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:05.879
<v Speaker 1>they do reach that fifty miles above a height, they

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:09.560
<v Speaker 1>will experience weightlessness. There will be six people on board total,

0:22:09.680 --> 0:22:12.840
<v Speaker 1>two pilots for crew members. They call them crew members.

0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:15.919
<v Speaker 1>They'll unbuckle and they'll float around for a few minutes.

0:22:16.000 --> 0:22:18.960
<v Speaker 1>And I've never felt or experienced weight listeners. I would

0:22:19.000 --> 0:22:21.840
<v Speaker 1>love to believe me, but I personally would take that

0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:24.160
<v Speaker 1>to be in space, because I'm not sure where else

0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:30.160
<v Speaker 1>you could do that to a four day I think,

0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:32.040
<v Speaker 1>I think you know the answer to that question. I

0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:35.280
<v Speaker 1>do not have the capital to fund my my own space.

0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:37.240
<v Speaker 1>But that's why I say this is a billionaire's race,

0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:40.920
<v Speaker 1>because ultimately, you know, the near term ambition to These

0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:44.399
<v Speaker 1>two companies are funded by different means. You know, Virgin

0:22:44.440 --> 0:22:47.400
<v Speaker 1>Galactic is a publicly traded company it was a des

0:22:47.480 --> 0:22:50.520
<v Speaker 1>back and Blue Origin is bankrolled by Jeff Bezos. But

0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:52.280
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, it's those two men

0:22:52.320 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 1>that have made this happen, and they're putting themselves in

0:22:55.119 --> 0:22:59.560
<v Speaker 1>pole position to be among a few people in history

0:22:59.640 --> 0:23:02.800
<v Speaker 1>too are going into space, you know, as civilians. Well,

0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:07.160
<v Speaker 1>this is all about the development of space tourism, right

0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:10.879
<v Speaker 1>and you look at Virgin Galactic shares. We've been talking

0:23:10.880 --> 0:23:13.800
<v Speaker 1>about it this week on air on a tear this year,

0:23:13.840 --> 0:23:17.560
<v Speaker 1>they've more than doubled. Is there a viable business that

0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:22.120
<v Speaker 1>these billionaires, these space billionaires are creating and that that

0:23:22.640 --> 0:23:25.320
<v Speaker 1>will be with us for years to come? So what

0:23:25.440 --> 0:23:28.919
<v Speaker 1>Virgin Galactics say about this is that their business model

0:23:29.040 --> 0:23:33.200
<v Speaker 1>and future profitability is based on the efficiency of manufacturing

0:23:33.200 --> 0:23:35.760
<v Speaker 1>the space craft. Because there's is not a rocket that

0:23:35.840 --> 0:23:38.680
<v Speaker 1>just simply shoots straight up. It's a plane. It's more

0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:41.679
<v Speaker 1>energy efficient. But they basically say that the way they

0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:44.119
<v Speaker 1>go about building these these planes is that they can

0:23:44.160 --> 0:23:46.959
<v Speaker 1>do this at volume and they can get regular flights.

0:23:46.960 --> 0:23:50.040
<v Speaker 1>They say they charged around two hundred fifty dollars for

0:23:50.040 --> 0:23:51.760
<v Speaker 1>the first six d people that have signed up. They're

0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:54.960
<v Speaker 1>not taking orders at the moment, they're not taking bookings,

0:23:55.000 --> 0:23:57.720
<v Speaker 1>but they're very confident they're going forward that they will

0:23:57.760 --> 0:24:00.760
<v Speaker 1>be cash flow positive and reach profitability based on the

0:24:00.760 --> 0:24:02.760
<v Speaker 1>business model. There are others out there to disagree. I

0:24:02.800 --> 0:24:04.800
<v Speaker 1>think we've discussed this guy that Elon Musk says that

0:24:04.960 --> 0:24:08.520
<v Speaker 1>launching as a business has a peak of about three

0:24:08.560 --> 0:24:11.200
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars a year, regardless of the payload that you're

0:24:11.240 --> 0:24:15.200
<v Speaker 1>sending up for him. The money's in the data, you know, Starlink, space, Internet,

0:24:15.240 --> 0:24:17.560
<v Speaker 1>things like that, you know, and Elon Mask with respect

0:24:17.640 --> 0:24:20.320
<v Speaker 1>is a good authority on this. But virgins Actic is

0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:23.399
<v Speaker 1>very very confident that this is a viable business model.

0:24:23.720 --> 0:24:25.960
<v Speaker 1>And Virgin's got Virgin Orbit, which is not connected to

0:24:26.000 --> 0:24:28.360
<v Speaker 1>Virgin Galactic anymore, but it's still part of the Virgin empire.

0:24:28.960 --> 0:24:32.119
<v Speaker 1>And you know the satellites, Yeah, it does, and for

0:24:32.320 --> 0:24:35.480
<v Speaker 1>for a very similar delivery mechanism. It's basically accustomed seven

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:38.240
<v Speaker 1>or seven houseitude and the rocket drops off the bottom

0:24:38.240 --> 0:24:41.960
<v Speaker 1>and then from the altitude launches on a sort of arc.

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:45.000
<v Speaker 1>But same same result, right, They put satellites into orbit

0:24:45.240 --> 0:24:47.680
<v Speaker 1>and the money comes from the data generated. So two

0:24:47.720 --> 0:24:50.720
<v Speaker 1>hundred fifty apart for a trip times six hundred, a

0:24:50.800 --> 0:24:56.600
<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifty million dollars. As your Galactic has almost

0:24:56.640 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 1>twelvellion dollar market cap, it's and when went public was

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:02.400
<v Speaker 1>a fraction of that. It's ten dollars a share because

0:25:02.400 --> 0:25:03.960
<v Speaker 1>it was a fact. I gotta love it. I think

0:25:04.080 --> 0:25:06.800
<v Speaker 1>continuing space exploration is is an interesting thing and I'm

0:25:06.800 --> 0:25:09.159
<v Speaker 1>looking forward to that special. Thank you. It's gonna be

0:25:09.160 --> 0:25:17.720
<v Speaker 1>fun day. I am. I'm bro journal now. But you

0:25:17.760 --> 0:25:22.480
<v Speaker 1>let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no no home please,

0:25:22.600 --> 0:25:29.760
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the riding drivel. I want to drive, Just drive, baby,

0:25:32.760 --> 0:25:43.440
<v Speaker 1>question trying. This is the drive to the globe. Give

0:25:43.480 --> 0:25:47.439
<v Speaker 1>me thanks. We'll drying us down on Bloomberg Radio. All right,

0:25:47.480 --> 0:25:49.480
<v Speaker 1>just about ten and a half minutes to go. We

0:25:49.560 --> 0:25:54.600
<v Speaker 1>are heading towards Carol. Flies when you're having fun, flies

0:25:54.640 --> 0:25:57.160
<v Speaker 1>when you're having fun. It has been a fun week

0:25:57.200 --> 0:26:00.400
<v Speaker 1>and interesting weeks and volatility this week. And let's get

0:26:00.440 --> 0:26:03.199
<v Speaker 1>to with Natty Level. She is senior US Equity Strategies

0:26:03.240 --> 0:26:06.479
<v Speaker 1>that US Global Wealth Management. Nattie joining us on the

0:26:06.520 --> 0:26:09.600
<v Speaker 1>phone in New York City. Nadia, good to have you here.

0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:12.880
<v Speaker 1>How do you explain this week? We had some selling,

0:26:12.960 --> 0:26:16.280
<v Speaker 1>we had some buying. It's a risk on trade today.

0:26:16.400 --> 0:26:20.720
<v Speaker 1>What do you believe investors are focusing on right now? Yes,

0:26:20.800 --> 0:26:24.280
<v Speaker 1>it's so great to be here. Thank you for having me. Um. Yeah, So,

0:26:24.600 --> 0:26:27.080
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the volatility this week, we do think

0:26:27.080 --> 0:26:28.760
<v Speaker 1>that it has to do with a confluence of the

0:26:28.880 --> 0:26:32.399
<v Speaker 1>things range and from you know, concerns around peak growth,

0:26:32.840 --> 0:26:36.639
<v Speaker 1>labor supply shoulders, there's potentially courtailing growth. Obviously, the tels

0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:39.200
<v Speaker 1>of variance and the emergent lambter variance is given some

0:26:39.240 --> 0:26:43.560
<v Speaker 1>pause and concerns around global growth. I do think that dope,

0:26:43.560 --> 0:26:47.960
<v Speaker 1>that investors should be focused on the overall strong economic

0:26:48.000 --> 0:26:51.359
<v Speaker 1>growth that we're expected in Q two and that trying

0:26:51.480 --> 0:26:53.400
<v Speaker 1>to sort of continue into back half of the year

0:26:53.600 --> 0:26:56.000
<v Speaker 1>and and then we expect to see above TRYD grow

0:26:56.119 --> 0:26:58.720
<v Speaker 1>into twenties. It's gonna be okay, right at least for

0:26:58.760 --> 0:27:02.760
<v Speaker 1>the next six months. Absolutely, it's going to be okay.

0:27:02.960 --> 0:27:06.679
<v Speaker 1>Earnings kick off next week. We are expecting another strong

0:27:06.800 --> 0:27:09.120
<v Speaker 1>quarter of earnings. And at the end of the day,

0:27:09.200 --> 0:27:12.480
<v Speaker 1>what dry at the stock market is earning. And we

0:27:12.600 --> 0:27:14.760
<v Speaker 1>do think that ARN is a set up to beat.

0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:17.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'll unpack that just a little bit more

0:27:17.400 --> 0:27:21.040
<v Speaker 1>for you. Wh we look at you two expectations, we

0:27:21.119 --> 0:27:23.440
<v Speaker 1>think that they're just too low, right, what do you

0:27:23.480 --> 0:27:28.440
<v Speaker 1>mean look at too low? But we are expecting growth

0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:35.600
<v Speaker 1>on the SMP Carol, not enough really, because let's unpack that.

0:27:35.960 --> 0:27:39.280
<v Speaker 1>You know, when you look at what what expectations are

0:27:39.440 --> 0:27:43.840
<v Speaker 1>versus Q one is actually expected to decelerate, and so

0:27:44.280 --> 0:27:47.159
<v Speaker 1>we don't agree with that. You should not expect you

0:27:47.160 --> 0:27:49.800
<v Speaker 1>should expect you one to be the lowest quarter of

0:27:49.840 --> 0:27:53.560
<v Speaker 1>the year in a non recession every year. Right now,

0:27:53.640 --> 0:27:58.120
<v Speaker 1>consensus expectation is for Q two to decline about eight

0:27:58.119 --> 0:28:01.880
<v Speaker 1>percent versus Q one, which is just peculiar, given that

0:28:02.280 --> 0:28:06.160
<v Speaker 1>economic growth into two is expected to be more than

0:28:06.440 --> 0:28:10.879
<v Speaker 1>three percentage points acceleration from Q one. What drives earning

0:28:11.080 --> 0:28:14.600
<v Speaker 1>economic growth? So it's economic growth is stronger in Q two.

0:28:14.840 --> 0:28:17.560
<v Speaker 1>For earn this growth should be even stronger than it was.

0:28:17.640 --> 0:28:22.000
<v Speaker 1>And Q why do I am a bois can't tell

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:26.560
<v Speaker 1>for my voice say so, okay, So how does some

0:28:26.600 --> 0:28:29.639
<v Speaker 1>how does an investor prepare for this? I think you.

0:28:30.000 --> 0:28:32.600
<v Speaker 1>We continue to like the value trade. We know we

0:28:32.680 --> 0:28:35.760
<v Speaker 1>saw some weakness in it over the last couple of weeks.

0:28:35.880 --> 0:28:39.240
<v Speaker 1>We've seen growth outperformed value. Today is a better day

0:28:39.280 --> 0:28:42.080
<v Speaker 1>for value. We think that trend would continue because we

0:28:42.160 --> 0:28:44.440
<v Speaker 1>think that that's where the upside will be in earning.

0:28:44.640 --> 0:28:49.840
<v Speaker 1>The more economically sensitive sectors would like consumer, discretionary, financials,

0:28:49.960 --> 0:28:52.920
<v Speaker 1>even energy, and those sectors tend to be in the

0:28:53.040 --> 0:28:55.680
<v Speaker 1>value index, and so we expect them to beat on

0:28:55.800 --> 0:28:58.640
<v Speaker 1>earn instant in coming weeks and that should help to

0:28:58.680 --> 0:29:02.040
<v Speaker 1>propel those stuffs even further. So those are the sectors

0:29:02.040 --> 0:29:04.760
<v Speaker 1>that we be looking to to to add to and

0:29:04.800 --> 0:29:07.960
<v Speaker 1>from a value growth UM standpoint, we're looking to add

0:29:08.000 --> 0:29:12.280
<v Speaker 1>to the value. Mhmm. So what about the names that

0:29:12.280 --> 0:29:15.600
<v Speaker 1>have really provided a lot of momentum? Uh, those big

0:29:15.640 --> 0:29:19.200
<v Speaker 1>tech names, the big thing stocks have they already had

0:29:19.240 --> 0:29:22.960
<v Speaker 1>their day in your view. In our view, they have

0:29:23.120 --> 0:29:26.160
<v Speaker 1>had their moments. And the reason why they've had their

0:29:26.200 --> 0:29:30.520
<v Speaker 1>moment recently, um is because race has p back right,

0:29:30.560 --> 0:29:34.120
<v Speaker 1>and so that has allowed like valuations for those high

0:29:34.160 --> 0:29:38.000
<v Speaker 1>valuation stock right. The discount rate has come down, and

0:29:38.040 --> 0:29:41.760
<v Speaker 1>so that that caused the rocation in those tech stocks.

0:29:42.080 --> 0:29:45.040
<v Speaker 1>We think some of that is going to reverse and

0:29:45.040 --> 0:29:47.920
<v Speaker 1>and and value will start to outperforming because we do

0:29:48.080 --> 0:29:50.760
<v Speaker 1>think that interest rates are going to move higher. We're

0:29:50.800 --> 0:29:53.600
<v Speaker 1>starting to see that again today. We expect that the

0:29:53.640 --> 0:29:56.040
<v Speaker 1>yield and the tenure will get to two percent by

0:29:56.160 --> 0:29:59.040
<v Speaker 1>year end, and that is not a favorable set up

0:29:59.240 --> 0:30:03.360
<v Speaker 1>for how your value staw. So yeah, to see some headwinds.

0:30:03.440 --> 0:30:05.560
<v Speaker 1>So then what happens to the high flying tech companies.

0:30:05.560 --> 0:30:08.920
<v Speaker 1>When interest rates go up like that, we expect them

0:30:08.960 --> 0:30:11.840
<v Speaker 1>to stall out again as we star earlier in the year.

0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:13.800
<v Speaker 1>We expect that head went to call back and we'll

0:30:13.840 --> 0:30:15.640
<v Speaker 1>stall out. And that's why we can see up of

0:30:15.720 --> 0:30:19.760
<v Speaker 1>our values. You think also economic growth tables. Those values

0:30:19.840 --> 0:30:22.840
<v Speaker 1>have to sort of growth that we're seeing in value.

0:30:22.920 --> 0:30:24.840
<v Speaker 1>It's just much higher than what we're seeing in the

0:30:24.880 --> 0:30:28.760
<v Speaker 1>growth sectors. Two on the ten year by the end

0:30:28.760 --> 0:30:32.040
<v Speaker 1>of the year, that's your forecast. But we know the

0:30:32.040 --> 0:30:34.360
<v Speaker 1>FED is willing to let things go a little hot.

0:30:34.440 --> 0:30:39.640
<v Speaker 1>Do you think the Fed changes monetary policy significantly before

0:30:39.720 --> 0:30:42.800
<v Speaker 1>the end of the year, whether it's reducing asset purchases

0:30:43.600 --> 0:30:45.440
<v Speaker 1>uh and letting things to start to roll off the

0:30:45.440 --> 0:30:47.720
<v Speaker 1>balance sheet, and do they do anything when it comes

0:30:47.720 --> 0:30:51.680
<v Speaker 1>to rates. So yeah, we do expect that this fad

0:30:51.720 --> 0:30:54.080
<v Speaker 1>will start to mesh the message in the tape or

0:30:54.120 --> 0:30:58.080
<v Speaker 1>and of the balance sheet at Jackson Hole or in September,

0:30:58.400 --> 0:31:00.960
<v Speaker 1>and we expect that tape for it to start even

0:31:01.000 --> 0:31:03.480
<v Speaker 1>in December or early next year. So that would be

0:31:03.880 --> 0:31:06.280
<v Speaker 1>the change in terms of policy parts in terms of

0:31:06.320 --> 0:31:08.960
<v Speaker 1>the interest rates and move in short en which we

0:31:09.040 --> 0:31:12.400
<v Speaker 1>don't think that FAT is going to do that anytime soon.

0:31:12.640 --> 0:31:19.920
<v Speaker 1>We're looking for late early a lot of late early

0:31:20.600 --> 0:31:24.840
<v Speaker 1>four before the FED starts to change rates exactly exactly

0:31:25.040 --> 0:31:27.800
<v Speaker 1>a long time. That is a long time, and so

0:31:28.000 --> 0:31:30.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot can happen between now and then. But as

0:31:30.240 --> 0:31:33.800
<v Speaker 1>we know, the FAT is very focused on economic data,

0:31:33.880 --> 0:31:36.840
<v Speaker 1>is very data dependent. But we think that we don't

0:31:36.840 --> 0:31:39.600
<v Speaker 1>see anything on the horizon to do rail the economic

0:31:39.640 --> 0:31:43.200
<v Speaker 1>growth that we're seeing, and so inflation transitory in your view,

0:31:44.160 --> 0:31:46.800
<v Speaker 1>transitory and our vie. Now we'll get we'll get t

0:31:46.920 --> 0:31:49.600
<v Speaker 1>p I numbers next week, We'll get the producer prices

0:31:49.680 --> 0:31:52.320
<v Speaker 1>next next week. Don't be surprised if those run hot.

0:31:52.360 --> 0:31:55.120
<v Speaker 1>We already know that the FED has also agreed with that,

0:31:55.280 --> 0:31:57.040
<v Speaker 1>and so we do expect them to run a little

0:31:57.040 --> 0:31:59.720
<v Speaker 1>bit hot. But by the time we get into urine

0:31:59.720 --> 0:32:04.880
<v Speaker 1>and two, we expect inflation to sort of normalize. So Nodia,

0:32:04.960 --> 0:32:07.080
<v Speaker 1>what what derails this, this bull market? And when does

0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:11.600
<v Speaker 1>that happen? I think what could derail this? It tends

0:32:11.600 --> 0:32:13.600
<v Speaker 1>to be FAT policy, But I think that the FAT

0:32:13.760 --> 0:32:17.400
<v Speaker 1>is very careful this time around. Also, this you inflation

0:32:17.520 --> 0:32:20.560
<v Speaker 1>regime that they have, you know, average inflation of the

0:32:20.680 --> 0:32:22.840
<v Speaker 1>course of the side gives them a lot more flexibility.

0:32:23.080 --> 0:32:26.160
<v Speaker 1>And also the fetres very much about the labor market,

0:32:26.200 --> 0:32:28.160
<v Speaker 1>and so those numbers will be closely watched. So I

0:32:28.200 --> 0:32:31.120
<v Speaker 1>think the chance of a set policy mistakes that we

0:32:31.160 --> 0:32:33.720
<v Speaker 1>have seen in the past that tends to derail the

0:32:33.760 --> 0:32:37.920
<v Speaker 1>economy and the market, we think that probability is lower. Now.

0:32:38.240 --> 0:32:40.400
<v Speaker 1>The other thing that, of course that we're all closely

0:32:40.440 --> 0:32:44.480
<v Speaker 1>locked is these variants. But you got there, this will

0:32:44.560 --> 0:32:47.680
<v Speaker 1>be managed. You've got you you know. It's it's interesting

0:32:47.680 --> 0:32:50.000
<v Speaker 1>because everyone brings it up, and I think it just

0:32:50.200 --> 0:32:53.880
<v Speaker 1>as a reminder that that is on everyone's radar because

0:32:53.960 --> 0:32:58.000
<v Speaker 1>that's the big outlier and that's the big unknown. Yes,

0:32:58.080 --> 0:33:01.040
<v Speaker 1>but even these variants, like I think even there's a

0:33:01.120 --> 0:33:04.880
<v Speaker 1>little laura probably of that even derail in um the

0:33:05.000 --> 0:33:09.120
<v Speaker 1>equity market, because I think that wants the sciences by

0:33:09.200 --> 0:33:12.680
<v Speaker 1>a position to handle it, and also the markets themselves.

0:33:12.840 --> 0:33:16.080
<v Speaker 1>We've already seen there's slopha variants. We're already seen farmer

0:33:16.160 --> 0:33:20.040
<v Speaker 1>companies coming out working on booster shot to help combat

0:33:20.160 --> 0:33:23.320
<v Speaker 1>specifically the delta variant, and so we think that that's

0:33:23.320 --> 0:33:25.600
<v Speaker 1>going to happen, and so the market is getting more

0:33:25.760 --> 0:33:28.520
<v Speaker 1>fustom and also relying on farmer We definitely have a

0:33:28.520 --> 0:33:30.560
<v Speaker 1>little bit more of the playbook at this point, even

0:33:30.560 --> 0:33:34.000
<v Speaker 1>though it's still being written. UM so much fun. Thank you,

0:33:34.160 --> 0:33:38.800
<v Speaker 1>great Friday check in on the market. Thanks for listening

0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:42.280
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:33:42.400 --> 0:33:44.560
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0:33:44.560 --> 0:33:47.160
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0:33:47.280 --> 0:33:50.040
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