WEBVTT - Will Americans Push Back on Inflation, and Farmers on America First? 0:00:01.240 --> 0:00:05.039 You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast. Catch us Saturdays 0:00:05.080 --> 0:00:08.240 at one and seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:11.440 the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:17.160 on demand wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. 0:00:17.239 --> 0:00:19.800 I'm Amie Morris. This week we take a look at 0:00:19.800 --> 0:00:23.760 how global competition has forced local farmers to rethink their 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:27.080 whole business model. We'll also look at a connection between 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:30.400 the expulsion of two lawmakers in Tennessee and the gun 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:35.320 culture in America. And they've changed some rules in baseball. 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.760 What could that mean for the future of America's pastime. 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:42.920 But we begin with inflation and the economy. Let's get started. 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.440 Inflation in the US eased ever so slightly in March, 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:49.960 fueling talk of FED rate cuts, but core inflation is 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:54.120 still sticky and this might not last. Chicago Fed President 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:57.760 Austin Goolsby is calling for a more judicious response. What 0:00:57.840 --> 0:01:03.800 I want us to think about is why I think 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:07.040 that at moments of financial stress like this, the right 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:13.880 monetary policy is really caution and watchfulness and prudence. But 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:16.480 maybe the rest of us, the general public, might be 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:20.000 taking the inflation surge a bit too lightly. Let's talk 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:24.480 about it. Bloomberg opinion columnist Chris Bryant covers industrial companies 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:27.080 in Europe and joins me. Now, and Chris, you mentioned 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:30.039 in your column on the Bloomberg terminal, back in the 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:33.440 nineteen sixties, people would just take to the streets over inflation. 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:36.399 They'd be protesting in front of grocery stores and department stores. 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:40.840 Is it time to bring back that level of civil discourse. Yes, 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:43.560 it sounds controversial, but I do think that consumers need 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:46.119 to start pushing back a bit harder. And the reason 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:48.120 is this that over the past couple of years, we've 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:50.840 had a lot of shocks to the economy, a lot 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:54.840 of surprises. People weren't used to inflation, and so when 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:57.760 companies began raising prices over the last year or two, 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:02.440 I think consumers general default view was, Okay, well, this 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:04.600 seems all right. We need to go along with that. 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:08.520 We should expect prices to go up. However, we have 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.160 seen day to come out that suggests that actually companies 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:14.440 have used the pandemic in order to increase their profit margins, 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:18.160 suggesting that making rather too much money and that consumers 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:21.160 could indeed afford to push back a bit more. Do 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:23.760 you find people are starting to do that protesting in 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:27.640 their own way, perhaps not painting signs and chanting in 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:33.040 the streets, but yelp reviews, tweets, social media movements. Well, 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:35.680 I think, you know, to start with, ultimately, consumers are 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:38.360 going to start to face much more difficult conditions. Maybe 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:41.480 some of the savings that they've built up during the 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:44.120 early parts as pandemic had been eroded away, so simply 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.320 they just don't have the capacity anymore to make some 0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:50.679 of the purchases of services or goods that they did earlier. 0:02:51.200 --> 0:02:54.240 But yes, I think there is growing irritation with some 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:57.400 of the increases that we've seen. An Anecdotia had to 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:00.680 Readers emailed me and say, look, yeah, somebody acts the 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.959 other day for this deal and you know, without rage. 0:03:02.960 --> 0:03:04.560 And I went back to them and I said, hey, 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:06.720 is that is that okay? And I think that's what 0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:08.880 we're talking about here. I'd like to see in effect 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:11.840 to try and my own life sometimes maybe to question 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:14.440 be as businesses about a bit more about the level 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.320 of cost inflation they're facing. I think consumers are very 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:20.680 understanding when a local business is facing lots of input 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:23.280 costs increases that they of course need to pass on 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:25.720 to customers in order to pay their bills. I think 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:29.680 they're not understanding though, when businesses take advantage of, you know, 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:31.679 the stresses that we've seen in the economy over the 0:03:31.760 --> 0:03:34.320 last couple of years in order to be further increase 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:36.240 their their margins at the time when you know a 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:39.640 lot of consumers are struggling. Yeah, how final line is that, 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:45.080 how do you know when retailers hands or sharp's hands 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:47.560 is tied. Their hands are tied, and there's not much 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:49.280 that they can do no matter how hard you push 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:53.920 back against inflation versus when they're just using this as 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:56.360 an opportunity to make a little more cash on the side. 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.000 It's very difficult, isn't it. I think you, as the customer, 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:00.960 you don't always have a cire insight into some of 0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:04.360 the costs people are facing. Uh. You know, even when 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:06.280 you look at some of the data which show now 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:09.920 that you know, commodity prices for falling, things like agricultural 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:12.560 prices of food are going down, and yet in the 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:14.680 shops the cost of food is still going up. You 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.159 as the consumer don't know whether the business is you know, 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:19.840 really you know, price gouging, or whether they're simply passing 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:21.560 on costs that you know they've locked in from a 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:24.880 long time ago, or something like that. I think though, um, 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:28.159 you know, consumers, you know, supermarkets for example, can be 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:30.800 the friend of the consumer here and that they I think, 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:33.960 do require their supplies often to lay out very clearly 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:37.159 the kind of cost pressures they are facing and have 0:04:37.320 --> 0:04:40.000 at times pushed back. We had a good example in 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:45.600 the UK last year when Tesco, the big supermarket, temporarily 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:49.279 removed Hinds baked beans, you know, a famous British uh, 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:52.039 you know, beloved product from their shelves because they argued 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:54.039 the price was simply too much and didn't reflect the 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:57.479 costs of the company was asking for. Are there signs 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:00.880 have you seen in your research on this topic consumers 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:04.760 are starting to reach that inflection point and demanding, I 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:07.840 don't know, show your work, mister grocery store, show us 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:10.919 where your costs are and why you're passing them along 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:13.159 to us. Are you seeing more of that? I think 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:15.840 we've had isolated cases. I mean, there was an example 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:18.560 last year, for example, of the US beer companies where they, 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:21.840 you know, they all increased prices by quite a lot, 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:23.560 and then they did see a very big fall off 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:27.120 in demand towards the latter part of the year. The 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:30.040 new boss of Walt Disney, for example, he came in 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:33.839 and he admitted openly that the company had perhaps been 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:36.760 too aggressive in increasing prices at some of their parks, 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:40.000 and of course that triggered, you know, beforehand, a lot 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:42.680 of complaints from very loyal customers who felt they were 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:46.080 being gouged. You know, they would love to go to Disney, 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:48.280 but they felt that they were being charged too much. 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:50.240 So I think a lot of companies often have a 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:54.160 very sensitive ear for these kind of things, and therefore, 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:57.120 you know, when consumers do start speaking up and pushing back, 0:05:57.160 --> 0:05:59.240 then they hear it. They do a lot of surveys, 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:03.600 they know what their customers are saying, and so I think, yes, 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:06.560 we are seeing these this pushback starting to happen. We 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:08.960 see it also just in terms of, you know, the 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:12.599 volume of good customers are buying. So while you see 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:15.960 you know, the overall revenues that companies are making going up, 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:18.200 you see that you know, part mostly that's because of 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.960 price in the consumer sector in Europe now, and actually 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:23.200 the actual volumes of goods that customers are buying us 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:26.360 going down, suggesting that they have reached a limit. And 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:29.560 we are talking with Bloomberg opinion columnist Chris Bryant about 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:32.640 inflation in the US and what the consumer can do 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:35.720 about it. Chris, I wanted to ask a little bit 0:06:35.720 --> 0:06:39.640 more about that tipping point among consumers. When do we 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.159 reach that tipping point? What does it look like? How 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:44.680 do you know when we're there? I think you see 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:48.440 it very obviously, when you know business begin to report, 0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:52.400 you know, shrinking volumes or when they start to see 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:56.120 customers trading down and the kinds of goods that they're buying. 0:06:56.520 --> 0:06:59.599 A big tail win for businesses over the last two 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:02.800 years when you know, they were able to sort of 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:08.679 premiumize their products, essentially pushing consumers to buy luxury versions 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:11.840 of the goods that they'd already bought, helped by the 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:14.280 fact that customers had more money into their pocket. We 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.760 could see a reversal of those trends now, particularly in 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:20.200 the autosector for example, you know, people were paying well 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.680 over sticker price for a new vehicle. We're starting now 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:28.280 with more supply in the market to discounting return to 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:31.160 the sector, which I think a lot of consumers were welcome. Nevertheless, 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:34.240 prices remained far higher than they were, particularly the use 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:37.720 cars before the pandemic. And you say it really well 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:41.240 in your column on the Bloomberg Terminal. What you say is, 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:43.240 many of us will see the high price of a 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:46.520 flight or a hotel room, we'll grumble about it, we'll 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:48.760 buy it anyway, we go ahead and click, and we 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:50.920 just move on and kind of throw up our hands. 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:54.800 So we're not here yet. They're at that tipping point. 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:57.640 We're just not feeling as much of a pinch as 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:01.840 we need to feel because, for lack of a better term, 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:04.840 it's just not expensive enough. Yet. Is that what has 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:07.760 to happen? Well, I think we need to be careful 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:10.240 who we're talking about. Of course, I mean poorer consumers 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:13.200 that reach that limit long ago. And we're seeing you know, 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:16.800 credit card balances you know, rise up, and delinquencies on 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:19.880 loans and so forth, so you know, the poorer consumer 0:08:19.960 --> 0:08:23.080 is already really there. And yes, some people would say, well, 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:25.960 the fact that prices continue to rise just suggest that 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:28.560 the demand is there. Price is a function of supply 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:31.360 and demand, and therefore, you know, essentially it just means 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:35.280 that you know, those prices are justified. But when you 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:38.640 listen to companies and how they talk about inflation off, 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:42.360 and you know they're deliberately restricting the supply of goods 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:45.400 into the sector, or they're capitalizing on the fact that 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:47.920 you know, supply has remained so limited. So in the 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:50.520 airline sector, for example, there's a host of reasons why 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:54.960 companies have the airlines have struggled to restore the capacity 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.840 that had before the pandemic, and indeed they needed a 0:08:57.880 --> 0:09:00.280 lot more now because the economy is bigger, and so 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:03.120 they are taking advantage of these situations. And yes, I 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.560 think there's a lot of revenge spending going on, which 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:08.320 you know, people wanting to have a good time after 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.000 the pandemic. But you know that might well de sria 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:13.600 as this year goes on, I think, and some of 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:16.160 these high prices that people have been paying perhaps will 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:20.920 become too much. What do you recommend? What should people do? Personally? 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:22.640 I say, in my own life, I think I tried 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:25.000 to speak up a little bit more now I think 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:27.360 it's you know, okay, you know, I go into my 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:30.720 local Bay Career for the you know, the other day, 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:33.600 and another price increase had gone through it, you know, 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:35.640 fifty percent more than I was paying, you know, a 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:37.640 year ago or something. I think it's okay to at 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:40.560 least speak up and say, hey, um, you know, I 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:42.480 want to be a customer here, but you know, cut 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:45.800 me some slack or at least explain why. And I 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:48.360 think when customers start pushing back a bit more like 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:51.840 like that, or indeed, you know, going elsewhere trading down, 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:54.520 you know, in the supermarket sector, you might well find 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:58.319 that people cross over to the lower price supermarkets when 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:02.160 when their budgets are tested this then, yeah, businesses will 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:04.600 have to respond. And you know, hopefully we are all 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:07.120 seeing that happen already. You know, the inflation rate is 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:09.880 coming down. Unfortunately, you know, core inflation, which is what 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:13.520 the central banks look at, remains uncomfortably high. And so 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:15.640 long as that's the case, there will be this temptation 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:19.840 to respond to inflation with higher interest rates. And you know, 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:22.880 my view in this columns, and it's shared by several 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:25.360 economists I think, is that you know, interest rates are 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:28.440 a very blunt tool. Yes, they can reduce inflation by 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.280 reducing demand, but at the cost of you know, much 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:35.439 higher unemployment and really hurting the economy and ultimately hurting consumers, 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:38.800 the very people who have suffered with higher inflation. And 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.480 my far better it would be I think if consumers 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.280 spoke up more, push back more against prices, and therefore, 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.040 you know, price levels drop that way, rather than having 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:50.880 to raise rates so aggressively. Bloomberg Opinion column is Chris 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:52.800 Bryant coming up. We're going to look at how one 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:56.760 industry in the US is also fighting low cost competitors 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:59.960 from overseas and it's struggling. And you might be surprised 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.920 to hear which sector is taking the most heat. You're 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:14.439 listening to Bloomberg Opinion. You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast. 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.679 Catch us Saturdays at one and seven pm Eastern on 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:21.640 Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:26.480 or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast. You're 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:29.680 listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris, and we've heard 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.960 this before. A once dominant industry in the US now 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:36.720 struggling because of low cost competitors from overseas. It's a 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:41.160 familiar story, but this story has a twist. In this case, 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.960 We're not just talking about a manufacturer. We're talking about 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:49.120 the American farm. Adam Mentor is a Bloomberg opinion columnist 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.360 covering Asia, technology and the environment, and he's an author. 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:55.520 His latest book is Secondhand Travels in the New Global 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:59.079 Garage Sale and Adam joins us. Now, thanks so much 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:02.040 for taking the time with this today. Let's just get 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:06.880 right into it. What is happening with US agriculture exports. Well, 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:11.040 they're declining at least some of the key trends of 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.920 corn and soy, which are two of the most important 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:19.199 and largest commodity exports from the US overall, not just 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:21.280 in terms of commodities, but in terms of all products, 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:24.959 whether it be cars or semiconductors. They're slowing down because 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:28.520 of greater foreign competition. Is that really what it is? 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.720 Greater foreign competition and where is this coming from? Well, 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:34.560 it is a greater foreign competition combined with a lack 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.640 of new free trade agreements. The US Department of Agriculture 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:40.640 recently took a look at what are the factors that 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:45.679 are causing US agricultural exports to slip, and they pinpointed 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:47.960 a few things. Certainly a strong dollar accounts for it 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:51.040 as well, but the other key factor is that the 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:55.319 US is no longer joining free trade agreements. Between two 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:58.160 thousand and twelve and two thousand and twenty, the US 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.520 didn't join any while the rest of the world is 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:04.240 really partnering up. And when other countries partner up on 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:07.800 free trade agreements, that makes it cheaper to export to 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.960 the countries where those free trade agreements are covering. For example, 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:15.400 regions of Africa which of fast growing middle classes, which 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.760 would traditionally be opportunities for US farmers to export. The 0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:23.400 advantages that say Canada hasn't exporting to them because they 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:26.240 have free trade agreements just don't exist for US farmers, 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.600 at least over the last decade. You know, that really 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.040 surprises me. I was thinking NAFTA covered most everything that 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:34.320 we would be interested in, and other free trade agreements 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:37.360 as well. Didn't we have those sorts of rules and 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:40.200 regulations in place that would protect both the producer and 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:44.640 the consumer. Well, traditionally we have been doing that. And 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:49.120 it really goes back to the nineteen eighties when which 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:53.000 was the last time US agricultural exports began eroding, also 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:55.320 in part because of a strong dollar, but also because 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.600 of the establishment of the European Union and other free 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.600 trade agreements. The decision was made to create free trade 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:05.600 agreements that benefit farmers and other workers, and we had 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:09.679 that for many years. You know, when NAFTA was passed 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:14.080 and enacted in nineteen ninety four, US agricultural exports overall 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:17.880 we're about forty six billion dollars. This year they are 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:21.480 up to almost two hundred billion dollars. So everything sounds 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:25.320 very healthy of free trade has really benefited farmers, but 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:28.880 it's slowing down. And in fact, this year we're actually 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.200 going to the United States is actually going to have 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:36.360 an actual agricultural trade deficit of about fourteen point five 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:38.840 billion dollars. So that speaks to some of these issues, 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:41.360 and it's one of the things that's motivating farmers and 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.000 farm groups in particular to go to Congress and say 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:46.840 we need help, we need free trade agreements. Adam, how 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:49.760 long has this been coming? Have farmers and others been 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.320 aware of this sort of gathering storm and the rest 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:53.880 of us are just sort of figuring it out and 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:57.840 catching on. Yeah, yes to an extent. I mean it's funny, 0:14:57.840 --> 0:14:59.840 you know, there's there's all kinds of stereotypes about f 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:03.560 country and American farmers. But one thing you learned very 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:05.720 quickly if you spend time in farm country is they 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:07.960 are some of the biggest advocates for free trade you'll 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:11.080 meet anywhere in the United States. And that's because they 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:13.240 know what happened in the nineteen eighties when the US 0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:17.520 started looking to open up markets. You know, starting in 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:21.840 twenty fourteen, mid two twenty teens, we really started to 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:25.120 see some of the erosion and key American markets. That 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.800 was the year that the US stop being the world's 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:32.600 largest exporter of wheat. Instead it was being replaced started 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:36.120 being replaced then by the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. Believe 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:38.880 it or not, but twenty fourteen we saw the erosion 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:43.760 of this traditional strong American export and that started ringing 0:15:43.760 --> 0:15:47.400 alarm bells in farm country. And then more recently, as 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:52.040 trade wars under Trump were initiated and key American agricultural 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:56.680 exports like soybeans to China began being impacted, you saw 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.880 a more organization growing up around this issue in farm country. 0:15:59.880 --> 0:16:02.440 So it's been building for a while. In this year 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:04.520 it's really come to a head with a lot of 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:06.440 these farm groups going to Congress and saying we need 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:09.960 to address this we are talking with Bloomberg opinion columnist 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.840 Adam Mentor about the future of farming in an age 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:17.360 of global competition. Let's pick right up where you left off, Adam. 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:19.960 When they go to Congress and they talk about this 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:23.280 and they try to get some sort of response, when 0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:26.920 might we see change. Certainly it can't be a partisan 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:30.400 issue helping out the American farmer, No, no, I can. 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:35.960 It really requires a bipartisan consensus on this issue. You know, 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:39.600 sort of the traditional polarizations that we've become accustomed to 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:42.200 are a little bit mixed up. You know, we've seen 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.760 a lot of the anti free trade talk in recent 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.760 years coming from the Republican side, But on this issue, 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:50.440 we're actually seeing quite a bit of support in Congress 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:55.520 from the Republican side, from especially farm state Republicans who 0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:59.120 want to see new free trade agreements. And the opposition 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.600 is I mean, really from the Biden administration, which has 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:05.920 made it quite clear to farm groups that it's not 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:09.600 open to the idea of negotiating free trade agreements because 0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:12.919 they believe that it could hurt manufacturing. They would like 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.439 to instead if they can create sort of one to 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:20.760 one agreements that aren't formal but understandings with American trading 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:25.440 partners that will hopefully open up markets to US farm exports. 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.199 But but there's a lot of skepticism to that approach 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:30.960 because it's it's not if you will written down, it's 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:35.400 not signed. And so thus the pressure from farm farmers 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.600 and from farm state legislators to get something done, to 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:41.240 get something started at least, so an informal agreement, a 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:43.119 sort of weekend and nudge is not going to do it. 0:17:43.119 --> 0:17:45.600 They need some pen on paper, They need some promise 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:49.040 if you yeah exactly. They want to they want to give. 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:51.320 I mean, in particular, what farm groups would like to 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:53.760 see is what led to NAFTA and what led to 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.080 some of our other free trade agreements is what's called 0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:59.160 fast track authority, and Congress had this also for TPP, 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:02.640 if we were call, which was the Transpacific Partnership, which 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.560 was supposed to be a multi country free trade agreement 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:10.119 between the US and primarily Asian countries and countries that 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:15.159 trade into Asia. The Trump administration scuttled that fast track authority, 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:17.960 which would allow the administration to negotiate an agreement and 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.400 then get an up or down vote on it in Congress. 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:23.040 They want to see if farm groups want to see 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:28.200 that kind of fasts track authority given to this administration 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:32.119 and have this administration aggressively pursue these kinds of agreements, 0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:36.440 especially with emerging market countries, because traditionally the places where 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:39.400 the US has grown farm exports are countries that are 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:43.040 developing middle classes that are moving up the food chain, 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.439 want better food, want better quality food, and so you 0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:51.160 see growth in those places. So places like Africa, places 0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:54.119 like Southeast Asia, that's where that's where they would like 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:57.640 to see these agreements forged. What would be the risk 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:00.639 if we played this out and just took it as 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:04.000 status quo and it continued year after year with the 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.920 numbers that you were quoting and the deficit that they 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.919 are experiencing when it comes to the exports. What's the 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:13.199 endgame here? What's the risk? Well, the endgame is is 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:18.200 that especially on the two key US agricultural exports right now, 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:22.280 corn and soybean, Argentina and Brazil, and Brazil is growing 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:25.840 very quickly, they basically edge the US out of current 0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:29.280 markets and emerging markets. So current markets places like China, 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:31.520 which is a complicated story. It's not just free trade 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.399 agreements with China, but also places in Southeast Asia and 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:38.640 Africa that the US loses the opportunity to export into 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.960 those regions because our product is just too expensive. Bloomberg 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:45.399 Opinion columnist Adam Mentor joining us there and don't forget. 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:49.159 We are also available as a podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:53.200 or your favorite podcast platform. Earlier this month, two black 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:57.080 lawmakers were expelled from the state legislature in Tennessee. The 0:19:57.200 --> 0:20:00.879 reason they were protesting, along with their constituent, calling for 0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:04.960 stricter gun control measures after a shooting at a Nashville school. Now. 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:08.680 One of those expelled, Representative Justin Jones, spoke out about 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:12.400 the controversy after he was reappointed to his seat just 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:16.000 days after his expulsion. I want to welcome democracy back 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:19.280 to the People's House. Then, on last Thursday, members of 0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:21.960 this body tribe to crucify democracy. But today we stand 0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:24.159 as a witness of a resurrection of a movement of 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:28.240 a multiracial democracy that no unjust decision will stand. Meanwhile, 0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:31.600 there was a mass shooting in Louisville. The governor of Kentucky, 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:34.320 Andy Basher, speaking out about that. I have a very 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:36.800 close friend that didn't make it today, and I have 0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:39.040 another close friend who didn't either, and one who's at 0:20:39.080 --> 0:20:42.040 the hospital that I hope is going to make it through. 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:45.600 So when we talk about praying, I hope people will 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:49.040 Mass shootings happening just about every day in this country now. 0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:51.960 Frank Wilkinson has been following this. He has a Bloomberg 0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:56.040 opinion columnist. He covers US politics and policy. Frank, thank 0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:58.080 you for taking the time. I just wanted to ask 0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:03.000 you about the exis between gun violence and the removal 0:21:03.000 --> 0:21:06.760 of the representatives Justin Jones and Justin Pearson from the House. 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:11.320 Why explained that connection to me? Well, it's a pretty 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:15.440 complicated connection with a lot of history behind it. But 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.280 if you look at the history of the United States 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:25.159 and guns, it's primarily been a history of white people 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:29.320 with the right to guns and black people not with 0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:34.320 the right to guns. But in the case of the 0:21:34.400 --> 0:21:40.199 removal of the two legislators in Tennessee, that too has 0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:43.720 a long history. We have, you know, for instance, in reconstruction, 0:21:45.160 --> 0:21:50.399 which is a time when blacks were not allowed to 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:53.560 carry guns, they had guns removed from them, for instance. 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:56.600 They were also blacks in legislatures in the South in 0:21:56.640 --> 0:22:02.000 those days, for instance, Tunis Campbell was the lead black 0:22:02.520 --> 0:22:07.320 legislator in Georgia. He was simply removed during after reconstruction 0:22:07.440 --> 0:22:11.920