1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's talk distress debt. 7 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 1: One would think that after the sixteen months we've just 8 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: experienced with the global pandemic and the global economic disruption, 9 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: that there would be plenty of distress debt. Paul Trigg Yanni. 10 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:35,599 Speaker 1: He's a managing director and head of distress debt Ford 11 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: investco joins us. Paul, thanks so much for taking the 12 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 1: time here talk to us about the distress debt market. 13 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: Are there opportunities out there? Are you seeing more distress 14 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: debt or the the federal reserve backstoff? Pretty much everything? 15 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: So thanks for having me. Yes. I think generally speaking, 16 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: over the last twelve d eighteen months, we have we've 17 00:00:55,360 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: really seen a generational opportunity and distress debt investing um. 18 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 1: Most companies twelve eighteen months ago had pretty severe revenue 19 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:09,759 Speaker 1: shortfalls supply chains in many cases were we're pretty severely disrupted, 20 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: and in all companies were broadly affected across most geographies, 21 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 1: and so there was there was really plenty to do 22 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: in terms of looking for distressed opportunities. If you fast 23 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: forward to where we are today, we think many of 24 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: the larger companies have had access to liquidity, whether that 25 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: be through the public equity and credit markets rallying, or 26 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: the federals are backstop as as as you as you mentioned, UM. 27 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: The caveat to that is that the small cap space, 28 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: which is a large focus for US, has really been 29 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: left behind. In many ways. These smaller companies don't have 30 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: the same level of access to capital. Many of them 31 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: are private, UM, and many of the lending facilities that 32 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: were put in place really have not allowed many of 33 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 1: these smaller private businesses, several of which are are private 34 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: equity owned, to access that liquidity. So it's it's still 35 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: quite a robust opportunity for small companies, Paul. How much 36 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 1: has the market view changed? I remember, UM, last year 37 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 1: we heard a lot of economists warning about these cascading bankruptcies. 38 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,519 Speaker 1: It was going to be catastrophic, and it doesn't look 39 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: like that really happened. No, I think it's I think 40 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: in our view that's correct, particularly in the in the 41 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 1: large cap market. I think many of those companies were 42 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:31,519 Speaker 1: able to get get capital through various different means. UM. 43 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,079 Speaker 1: The equity markets, obviously, as we all know, have come back, 44 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: the public credit markets have come back, and so UM 45 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: in large part, the large cap distressed opportunity, which was 46 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: significant twelve eighteen months ago, seems relatively small today. But 47 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: that having been said, if you look at the private 48 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 1: universe of smaller companies UM, again, if you were to 49 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 1: take sort of lower middle market or small cap companies 50 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: that are generally leveraged buyouts or management buyouts owned by 51 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: private equity firms, UM, they're still pretty significant opportunity there. 52 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 1: And you still are seeing a significant amount of defaults 53 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: UM in in sub five million dollar companies and and 54 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 1: a significant amount of reorganizations. Many of those companies because 55 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: their private have less access to capital. The direct lending 56 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: and private credit universe has not has not stepped into 57 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: finance distressed companies. And if you look, for example, at 58 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: what we put in place in the US in terms 59 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 1: of the main street lending facility that that ended the 60 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: year less than one percent utilized, which was fairly significantly 61 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: underutilized obviously because it effectively barred private equity owned companies 62 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: from borrowing. So UM it's really been a very different 63 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: story in in the small cab universe in terms of bankruptcies, Paul, 64 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: what sectors are you guys doing some of your most 65 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: work right now? So the the the interesting point about 66 00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: the smaller cap segment is that it tends to be 67 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: more diverse. If you look at large cap distress, it's 68 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: tended in the last five seven years to be very 69 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: focused around retail and energy UM, and that's probably not 70 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: surprising given what's gone on in those two industries. The 71 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: small cap space over time, if you look over the 72 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: last two decades, has been pretty pretty diverse in terms 73 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 1: of industry focus. So we're looking at companies in general 74 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 1: industrials and the healthcare sector, UM, in consumer sectors, in 75 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: in small financial businesses. So it's it's it's really across 76 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: the board, UM a very diversified opportunity set in terms 77 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 1: of the smaller end of the market. What have you 78 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: look at it the other way around? I mean you're 79 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: used to obviously trying to find UM areas that the 80 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: market sees as distressed, but you think, you know, maybe 81 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: not may may not fail. Are there industry groups, for example, 82 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: that you think it's been given too much credit? UM? 83 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 1: So we I think we were initially very cautious in 84 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: some of those industry groups UM that were particularly COVID impacted. 85 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: And so maybe one way to think about it was 86 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: UM that there's really been sort of the direct COVID 87 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,559 Speaker 1: impacted industries UM. And you can think about UM theater 88 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 1: change for example, or you can think about shopping malls 89 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: and things like that where social distancing norms changed over 90 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: the last twelve to eighteen months, or airlines for example, 91 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:25,919 Speaker 1: UM and so obviously UM this pandemic has had a 92 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 1: sort of beginning of middle and hopefully an end here 93 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:31,279 Speaker 1: and so people have seen their way through UH distress 94 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 1: and are looking forward a year or two in terms 95 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: of normalization of those UM we still remain pretty cautious 96 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: on on those areas. I think the larger funds and 97 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: larger cap dis stress market has has shown quite a 98 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: bit of interest in those, and we're still fairly cautious 99 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: on that part of the market. Again, those are those 100 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: are larger companies than we generally focus on um. So 101 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: that's our thoughts there A. Paul, thanks so much for 102 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 1: joining us. Really appreciate getting your thoughts here on this 103 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 1: interesting segment of the fixed income markt Pltrigg and he's 104 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: a managing director and head of Distress Credit at Investco. 105 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 1: I want to bring in now Mira Panda. As we said, 106 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: she's a global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. 107 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 1: And the reason I almost forgot tomorrow is Job's Day. 108 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 1: It's a non far forget. This is like Tom's monthly highlights. 109 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: Well it is. It's I've always called it the Granddaddy 110 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: of all economic statistics. It's it's a big deal and 111 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: there's a lot of volatility around it. A lot of 112 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: times people stopped trading for a moment while it comes out. Um, Amira, 113 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: welcome to the program. Thanks so much for joining us. 114 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: Let us get your insight on on what to expect here. 115 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: You know, we've had some big misses, but obviously things 116 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 1: are going in the right direction. Yeah, absolutely, and thanks 117 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:51,839 Speaker 1: for having me. So. We're forecasting about six hundred thousand 118 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 1: jobs were added in June, so pretty much in line 119 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: with what we saw back in May. Slightly above but 120 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: we're probably going to see continued strength and areas like leisure, 121 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: hospitality broad based within the services. As those areas of 122 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: the economy really come back, could potentially see um some 123 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: seasonal effects on the negative side in terms of education 124 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: as teachers adjournal for the summer. But given the layoffs 125 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: we've already seen that space, those challenges are are well 126 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: understood and could be less of a headwind around and 127 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: I'd say that overall that could bring our unemployment rates 128 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: from about five point eight percent down to about five 129 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: point five percent, in line with the decline last month. 130 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: So ultimately the risk here in the jobs reporters probably 131 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: really to the downside, and not because the economy is 132 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: not creating jobs, but just because we can't feel them 133 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: at a rapid enough clip. So mirror as we think 134 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: about the jobs market, that brings us to potential for 135 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: wage inflation we haven't had. You know, there was a 136 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: period in the market, you know, it's called it a 137 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: month or two ago where inflation was really a concern 138 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: for this market. Seems to have faded a little bit. 139 00:07:57,360 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: Where are you in terms of thinking about inflation in 140 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: this market, whether it's transitory, whether there really is some 141 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 1: of longer risk concerns. Ultimately, I'd think about it on 142 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: the basis and then the kind of three to five 143 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: year basis, and I think from perspective, the higher inflation 144 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: numbers we're seeing now probably are mostly transitory. We're seeing 145 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: some of those base effects play out, higher energy prices 146 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: versus last year, higher services on a on a month 147 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: over month basis, as services kind of start to come 148 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: back um evidence of supply chain issues. But look, we've 149 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: already seen a lot of commodity prices peek out. I 150 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: think that some of these things will play out over 151 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: the course of the year. But I mean, as you say, 152 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: with some of the higher wage pressures will probably in 153 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: for an environmentment of slightly structurally higher inflation over to 154 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: say that three to five year timeline, Let's think maybe 155 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 1: two to three percent inflation as opposed to the sort 156 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: of two percent or sub two percent inflation we've been 157 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: seeing kind of pre COVID post financial crisis. It's no 158 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 1: big deal. Me and Paul are children of the seventies. 159 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 1: We know what real inflation is like, and that wasn't 160 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: even like real inflation. It's always interesting. Somebody today brought 161 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: up the Weimar Republic, and I was like, dude, that 162 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: was really bad. The seventies were not even there yet, 163 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: So we're worried about three or four percent. It's n 164 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,839 Speaker 1: b D. The labor shortages, are they going to be 165 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: a problem for the market or um just add to 166 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 1: upward pressure in such an odd environment in that there's 167 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: about nine point three million job openings, but there's also 168 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 1: about nine point three million people unemployed. So the labor 169 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 1: shortage challenge is an interesting one that we're seeing across 170 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:42,199 Speaker 1: small business surveys, consumer surveys that people just can't still openings. 171 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: And I think in the short run that's probably going 172 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: to continue to push up wages because we are seeing 173 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: companies either offer you know, bonuses to submit applications, bonuses 174 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: after you know, two months time, higher wages. We're seeing 175 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: that in a month over months basis. But the question 176 00:09:58,200 --> 00:09:59,679 Speaker 1: is how long or a thousand to start for a 177 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: June your analyst, Yeah, exactly so. But what we are 178 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 1: kind of seeing from a broader perspective is that a 179 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: lot of states are taking away those UH enhanced supplements 180 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 1: to unemployment benefits. In fact, about half of states have 181 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,959 Speaker 1: throughout the month of June and a few more in July, 182 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 1: so by the time we get to September when the 183 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: rest will also expire, and you know, people should be 184 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: um kind of coming back off the sidelines, combined with 185 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: the fact that um, hopefully kids will be back in 186 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: person full time at school, so people who have childcare 187 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 1: challenges should also have a bit of luck there and 188 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 1: be able to get back into the labor force. Amara, 189 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us to really appreciate it. 190 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 1: A mere appendant. She's global market strategist at JP Morgan 191 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: Esset Management, joining us on the phone from New York. 192 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: Max Chafkin joins us. He's a calumnist for Bloomberg Business Week. 193 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 1: He's actually Matt in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio here 194 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: in New York. And the story he has as a 195 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: junior Microsoft engineer figured out a nearly perfect bitcoin generation scheme. 196 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: So notes right down your alley, met and part of 197 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 1: the heist issue, Yeah, exactly ten dollars okay, so it's 198 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: part of it's big take, right, but it's also Max 199 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: is this also in the Business Week heist issue? Yep, 200 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: yep for for for this week, we've got a full issue. 201 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: There's actually no news in the issue, it's only stories 202 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:28,079 Speaker 1: about um sort of crimes, scams. Um, it's it's our 203 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: as you say, be treating issue. So we've got this 204 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:33,959 Speaker 1: really fun one about a it's kind of a weird 205 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: digital currency scam. We're talking about this a lot of 206 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: tier of crime, it seems like. So it tells US's 207 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 1: not weird. It's awesome. Yeah, So this is we were 208 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,079 Speaker 1: we the writer Austin car and I we're joking about 209 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 1: this as as the you know, Ultimate Xbox the Ultimate 210 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: video game cheat. This was a basically a junior employee 211 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 1: at Microsoft whose job was to test the store where 212 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: people buy stuff on Microsoft's website, and he figured out 213 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 1: a way to get basically an unlimited number Xbox gift cards. 214 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: If you're a gamer, these cards contain codes and you 215 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: can use them to buy games, you can buy content, 216 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 1: you can also buy you know, stuff like I am 217 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: an Xbox fanatic. My gamer tag is shower fan. If 218 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 1: anybody wants to challenge me, from Halo to Call of 219 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: Duty to Red Dead Redemption, I have easily spent thousands 220 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: of the okay, but I've also always wanted to be 221 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: part of a heist. And this is a pretty awesome 222 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: one because the guy actually guess what like ten million bucks, right, 223 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: and he spends it on cool stuff. Oh yeah, he 224 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: gets ten million bucks. He uh flips these five by 225 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: five codes on a website called packs full, which is 226 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: a site where people trade these things. This is something 227 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 1: I didn't know about it, but it's a it's a 228 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: really robust market. In fact, he was selling so many 229 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 1: of these codes, you know, thousands of them, that he 230 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: was manipulating the price of of xbox currency, according to 231 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: I R. S. When they, you know, came after him, 232 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 1: then he turned that into bitcoin. He put his bitcoin 233 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: through a crypto money laundry thing, spits out some clean coin, 234 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: and then, as you say, starts buying cool stuff. When 235 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: the Feds caught up to him, you know, they found 236 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: him in his you know, seven figure late lakefront house 237 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,439 Speaker 1: somewhere some nice part of washing the Pacific Northwest. It's 238 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: some place amazing, by the way. Fun fact, I used 239 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: packs full a few years back. I went two weeks 240 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 1: without spending US dollars. Well, I only spent bitcoin. Was 241 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 1: my was my challenge, and I had to get stuff 242 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,439 Speaker 1: um from game stop. I had to buy gas, I 243 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: had to buy food, and so packs full is really 244 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: helpful because I could take my bitcoin and get gift 245 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: cards for the stuff I needed, and that's part of 246 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 1: the way I made it through these two weeks. Yeah, 247 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 1: and one of the points, I mean, it's so wonderful 248 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:48,440 Speaker 1: we talk to such an expert here I have said. 249 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 1: But but one of the interesting things, the points that 250 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: we make in this piece is that, you know, we 251 00:13:55,559 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: think about digital currencies being bitcoin, you know, ethereum whatever, um. 252 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: These gift cards are their own kind of digital currency. 253 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: And then they've been around for a really long time 254 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 1: and they're actually really important to big companies, including Microsoft, 255 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 1: but also of course Apple and you know, and others. 256 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: So it's kind of a sort of nice reminder that 257 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: you know, you think of you think of one one 258 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 1: side of crypto and on the other side you have 259 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: sort of the real economy. But they're you know, they're 260 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: all together and and mashed up in interesting ways. So 261 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 1: you make a great point about, um, why companies love 262 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 1: these gift cards so much, And I hadn't ever thought 263 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: about it before, but the fact is, so many people 264 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 1: get these gift cards, actual physical cards, not just the 265 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: five by five codes, and they have them lying around 266 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: and they forget about them, and that turns into millions 267 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: or even maybe hundreds of millions of dollars with the 268 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: revenue that a company gets without ever having to give 269 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: out products. Yeah, and there's been some regulation here. You know. 270 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: A few years back, Congress uh made a rule saying 271 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 1: you couldn't have the gift The gift cards had to 272 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: last I think for at least five years. But but 273 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 1: at some point these things expire their fees. And the 274 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: other interesting thing that that's brought up in this story. 275 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: You know, Microsoft can give out the gift cards as 276 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: like a marketing spence and then it only has to 277 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: book that, uh, if somebody actually redeems them. Otherwise it's 278 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: just you know, they just give them out. They don't 279 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: do anything with it. So it's basically free money for 280 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: a lot of these big companies. So Max, how did 281 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: they catch this guy? Seems like you talk about bitcoin, 282 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 1: you can't trace that, presumably, although now there's maybe that's 283 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 1: kind of what we just it's the most traceable currency 284 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 1: that there is. So yeah, they didn't. It had nothing 285 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 1: to do with the crypto thing. That's not how they 286 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 1: caught him. They caught him because he was basically using 287 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: his colleagues passwords, which which worked for a while. Basically, 288 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: his colleagues had really bad passwords. As he's saying the story, 289 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: you know, one of them was you know, secret one 290 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: to three. So he was he was guessing these passwords. 291 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: He was using a kind of a VPN situation where 292 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 1: it looked like his traffic was coming from a different continent. 293 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: But he's easy the same computer that he was logging 294 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 1: on with. So so he's logged on into his work computer. Uh, 295 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: and then he logs on as a criminal. It's the 296 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: same computer. They were able to find him. The other 297 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: thing he did was he shipped one of his stolen 298 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: graphics cards. He used the he's the codes of biographics cards, 299 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: shipped it to a previous address, and they connected it 300 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: to him. Basically was a big data project, I mean, 301 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 1: really interesting in this story, the kind of scope of 302 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: Microsoft's security operation. I mean, they were the real ones 303 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: who broke this case. Then they turned it over to 304 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: the federal government. But but they're the ones who initially fingered, uh, 305 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: the purp here, and then the Feds picked up the 306 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: capes that they did their own investigation, and then they 307 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 1: prosecuted the guy had a stolen a copy of Microsoft 308 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 1: Office essentially and registered it to his startup. So that 309 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: wasn't very smart, right exactly? So yeah, they if he 310 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: had just done the crypto, I think he could have 311 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: gotten away with it for a while longer. Alright. That 312 00:16:57,920 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 1: a lot of cool stuff. And he was planning on 313 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 1: getting a seaplane, a ski shalet, a yacht. He has 314 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: a great list in the story of the stuff he's 315 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 1: gonna get with his next ten million. But I mean, 316 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: when you're doing a good hist you gotta have a seaplane, exactly. 317 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: All right, Max Chapkin, thanks so much for joining us. 318 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,399 Speaker 1: Max is a calumnist for Bloomberg Business Week. Joining us 319 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 1: here on a Bloomberg and exacortive broker's studio. And again 320 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 1: the big big take stories. These are fascinating stories. This 321 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: isn't give me two hundred words on Microsoft. These are 322 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: deep dives, deeply reported, really interesting stories. Uh. And again 323 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 1: check out the Bloomberg Business Week for the heist issue, 324 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: and of course for all these big take stories. You 325 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: can find them at Bloomberg dot com. All right, let's 326 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,199 Speaker 1: get over to built Smeat right now. Chief Investment Officers 327 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 1: Meat Capital Management, I love to talk to Bill and 328 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: Cole as well about value investing, their principal investors out 329 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: of Phoenix, Arizona. And Bill, you've got some interesting plays 330 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: that you think are are undervalued. UM in the pharma's side, 331 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: am Jen murk Visor, and I wonder why you think 332 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: the markets haven't given the valuations to these investments that 333 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:11,160 Speaker 1: you think they deserve. Well, thank you for having us, 334 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: and and we think that first of all, the relative 335 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: values are incredible compared to the last twenty years. They're 336 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: they're the cheapest relative to the rest of the stocks 337 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,959 Speaker 1: in the SMP they've been in twenty years. The second 338 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 1: thing is anecdotal. We have a cardiologist in our building 339 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 1: in Phoenix, and since people got vaccinated, it's standing room 340 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 1: only in the waiting room to get in there, and 341 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 1: that is not yet reflected in the price of these 342 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 1: medicine stocks. So part of it it seems Bill, you know, 343 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 1: it's just kind of I would think that pharmaceutical stocks 344 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: now I think about them a lot more. With COVID nineteen, 345 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: I think about him in a good way. I'm not 346 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 1: sure if that translates into higher stock prices, but part 347 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: of it seems to be just perception. These companies maybe 348 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 1: don't market themselves correctly. Yeah, that they've made the last 349 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 1: five to teen years one of the biggest pr errors 350 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 1: and advertising errors in history. But it looks like they're 351 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 1: already to rectify that. Now. I noticed Lily's running a 352 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: commercial where they teach people about a bunch of different 353 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: medicines they make, and at the end of it, it 354 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 1: comes on and the tagline is Eli Lily a medicine company. 355 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: Right if Nancy Reagan said just say no to drugs, cannabis, 356 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: cannabis stores sell drugs. Uh, these people sell medicine. And 357 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 1: now that people have been touched their lives, even even 358 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: very healthy people have now been positively benefited by these vaccines, 359 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,959 Speaker 1: they now realize that these folks make medicine and and 360 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: ultimately that won't switch things over in a day, but 361 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 1: at some point in time, their earnings will be better 362 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 1: than a lot of other people, and their prices will 363 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: have started cheap, and it will be a successful three 364 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 1: to five year uh outlook investment. Now I'll stand up 365 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 1: for the for the weed here. Um. You know, liquor 366 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,959 Speaker 1: stores sell drugs too, and a lot of people use 367 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 1: cannabis as medicine. I know you guys are a pretty 368 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,719 Speaker 1: conservative shop, but have you ever invested have you ever 369 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: thought about investing in cannabis? No? I will say though, 370 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 1: I had a back massage at a reputable place called 371 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: hand in Stone, and she offered me for extra money, uh, 372 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 1: and oil that that she thought would be good for 373 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: the muscles that were bothering me CBD cannabinoid oils. I 374 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: want to ask you also about something else, Bill, because 375 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 1: I love Phoenix. I love hanging out, having dinner in Scottsdale, 376 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: going out to Sedona. Um, if I could get on 377 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 1: the course and play at TPC, that would be amazing 378 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 1: as well. We've seen housing prices skyrocket all over the country. 379 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: What's real estate like down there? Well, it's been pretty nutty. Uh. 380 00:20:56,320 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 1: But what what what everyone needs to understand is it 381 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 1: is in the DNA of Americans going back to their 382 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: great great great grandparents who came to the East Coast 383 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 1: and then constantly for the last two hundred years have 384 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: arbitrage land values. So people are like shocked. It's like, Okay, 385 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 1: there's ninety million millennials. They're gonna want what six million 386 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 1: gen xers wanted. That means thirty more humans, and they 387 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: were delayed in this whole process until COVID hit and 388 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 1: the pandemic UH brought the need for a home to 389 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 1: the forefront. So now, the first arbitrage was Los Angeles 390 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 1: to Las Vegas and Phoenix. That the next arbitrage after 391 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 1: that is the you know, the Spokens and Reno's and 392 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: and we're those have already exploded. So just think of 393 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,120 Speaker 1: anywhere across the country where it's a pleasant place to live. 394 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,360 Speaker 1: There's a hundred thousand people there, and there's water and WiFi. 395 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 1: We're gonna build a ton of homes in those places 396 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 1: because that's what the land arbitrage dictates. And the market 397 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: share of our home builders, which would be Dr Horton 398 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: Lennar and NBR Ryan Holmes, is nine times what it 399 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 1: was seven years ago. So a disapportionately large part of 400 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 1: the homes being built will be built by us. All right, hey, Bill, 401 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 1: just real quickly. What's the high temperature there today? I'm 402 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 1: not in Phoenix, it is it's sixty three degrees in seaside, Oregon. 403 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 1: We're on a bit alright. Good move there, Bill. I'll 404 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 1: tell you what last time I was. Last time I 405 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: was in Phoenix. It was a hundred six degrees but 406 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 1: it's but it's a dry heat. It's a dry heat. 407 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 1: And then we shot up to Flagstaff and it was 408 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,479 Speaker 1: much cooler up there. So I just love that. All Right, 409 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 1: Bills all over, he's got it covered here. Uh Bill Smee, 410 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: chief investment officer Smead Capital Management, that two point eight 411 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 1: billion dollars in assets under manager. Talking to us today 412 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: about pharma stocks, he thinks that they have some room 413 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 1: to go. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 414 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 415 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 416 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller y three and on Fall 417 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 1: Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, 418 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,440 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio